Psychosis incidence through the prism of early intervention services

Social disadvantage in early psychosis and its effect on clinical presentation and service access, engagement and use

Incidence of psychosis varies geographically due to factors such as social disadvantage. Whether this influences the clinical presentation and/or engagement of those experiencing psychosis remains relatively understudied. This study analysed data from young people across Australia accessing ultra-high risk (UHR) or first episode psychosis (FEP) services delivered through the headspace Early Psychosis (hEP) program between June 2017 and March 2021. The cohort was categorised into low, middle, and high tertiles of social disadvantage using the Index of Relative Socioeconomic Disadvantage (IRSD). Data from 3089 participants aged 15-25 were included (1515 UHR, 1574 FEP). The low and middle tertiles for both cohorts had greater percentages of those not in education or employment (NEET), with First Nations or culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds. Clinical presentations to services were similar across all tertiles in both cohorts, however, functioning at presentation varied significantly within the FEP cohort. Significantly lower numbers of direct services were provided in the low tertile of both cohorts, with significantly poorer engagement in the initial three-months also occurring for these young people. This variation in early psychosis service patterns associated with geographical variation in social deprivation demonstrates the need for further research and fine tuning of national early psychosis services.

Temporal variation in the incidence of treated psychotic disorders in young people

INTRODUCTION

The incidence of psychotic disorders varies between geographical areas, however less is known about whether it varies over time in the same region. Analyzing this temporal variation of incidence could improve the allocation of healthcare resources and our understanding of the aetiology of psychotic disorders. This study aimed to determine whether there was a change in the incidence of psychotic disorders over a six-year period.

METHODS

Young people aged 15 to 24 presenting with a first episode of psychosis (FEP) attending an early intervention service in Melbourne between 2011 and 2016 were included. The population at-risk was determined from the two corresponding census periods and analyses were adjusted for age, sex and migrant status.

RESULTS

A total of 1217 young people presented with a FEP over the six-year period and the crude incidence rate in 2011 was 102.4 per 100,000 population at-risk, compared to 125.4 in 2016. There was an increase in the incidence by 33% in 2015 (aIRR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.09-1.63) and 28% in 2016 (aIRR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.05-1.56). When examined according to diagnostic groups, there was an increase in the incidence of substance-induced psychotic disorders among females in 2015 (aIRR = 4.62, 95% CI 1.02-20.8).

DISCUSSION

This study shows significant temporal variations in the incidence of treated psychotic disorders. These findings demonstrate that early intervention services should continually monitor incidence case numbers and funding should be provided accordingly, to ensure the required intensive and comprehensive treatments can be sustained.

Risk of psychotic disorders in migrants to Australia

BACKGROUND

Certain migrant groups are at an increased risk of psychotic disorders compared to the native-born population; however, research to date has mainly been conducted in Europe. Less is known about whether migrants to other countries, with different histories and patterns of migration, such as Australia, are at an increased risk for developing a psychotic disorder. We tested this for first-generation migrants in Melbourne, Victoria.

METHODS

This study included all young people aged 15-24 years, residing in a geographically-defined catchment area of north western Melbourne who presented with a first episode of psychosis (FEP) to the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC) between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2016. Data pertaining to the at-risk population were obtained from the Australian 2011 Census and incidence rate ratios were calculated and adjusted for age, sex and social deprivation.

RESULTS

In total, 1220 young people presented with an FEP during the 6-year study period, of whom 24.5% were first-generation migrants. We found an increased risk for developing psychotic disorder in migrants from the following regions: Central and West Africa (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] = 3.53, 95% CI 1.58-7.92), Southern and Eastern Africa (aIRR = 3.06, 95% CI 1.99-4.70) and North Africa (aIRR = 5.03, 95% CI 3.26-7.76). Migrants from maritime South East Asia (aIRR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.23-0.65), China (aIRR = 0.25, 95% CI 0.13-0.48) and Southern Asia (aIRR = 0.44, 95% CI 0.26-0.76) had a decreased risk for developing a psychotic disorder.

CONCLUSION

This clear health inequality needs to be addressed by sufficient funding and accessible mental health services for more vulnerable groups. Further research is needed to determine why migrants have an increased risk for developing psychotic disorders.

Risks and Protective Factors of the Prodromal Stage of Psychosis: A Literature Review

Psychosis is a syndrome characterized by features of reality distortion such as delusions and hallucinations. It may occur as a primary mental disorder or secondary to a medical or neurological illness or substance abuse. Several genetic, environmental, and protective risk factors have been identified and require further study. Neurobiological damage at the onset of schizophrenia is the most active and destructive. Therefore, it is important to detect the prodromal phase of psychosis so that interventions can be started early and the onset of psychosis delayed. Herein, we review the relevant epidemiological data on psychosis, particularly in Saudi Arabia. In addition, the risk and protective factors of psychosis will be discussed. Recent findings have shown that psychosis development is affected by genetic and environmental factors. Psychotic disorders are considered a cause of disability and are, therefore, a substantial economic burden. Consequently, it is important to try and detect the psychosis in its prodromal stage, where intervention may slow its progression and improve general wellbeing. Several tools have been identified to screen for the prodrome of psychosis, one of which is the prodromal questionnaire-brief version. This has been shown to be a promising tool that can be self-administered by the patient in contrast to long interview-based tools, which are time-consuming and require a physician to perform. Despite the limited evidence in the literature, there have been significant improvements in the outcomes of patients with psychosis when treated in the prodromal period. In summary, this article provides psychiatrists and researchers with an overview of psychosis, its risk factors, the prodromal stage of psychosis, tools to detect the prodromal phase, and potential treatments during this phase.

Patterns of Health Care Utilization Before First Episode Psychosis in Racial and Ethnic Groups

Objective

To compare patterns of health care utilization associated with first presentation of psychosis among different racial and ethnic groups of patients.

Design

The study was a retrospective observational design.

Setting

The study was conducted in five health care systems in the western United States. All sites were also part of the National Institute of Mental Health-funded Mental Health Research Network (MHRN).

Participants

Patients (n = 852) were aged 15 - 59 years (average 26.9 ± 12.2 years), 45% women, and primarily non-Hispanic White (53%), with 16% Hispanic, 10% non-Hispanic Black, 6% Asian, 1% Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American/ Alaskan Native, and 12% unknown race/ethnicity.

Main Outcome Measures

Variables examined were patterns of health care utilization, type of comorbid mental health condition, and type of treatment received in the three years before first presentation of psychosis.

Methods

Data abstracted from electronic medical records and insurance claims data were organized into a research virtual data warehouse (VDW) and used for analysis.

Results

Compared with non-Hispanic Whites, Asian patients (16% vs 34%; P=.007) and non-Hispanic Black patients (20% vs 34%; P=.009) were less likely to have a visit with specialty mental health care before their first presentation of psychosis.

Conclusions

Early detection of first episode psychosis should start with wider screening for symptoms outside of any indicators for mental health conditions for non-Hispanic Black and Asian patients.

Incidence of treated first episode psychosis from an Australian early intervention service and its association with neighbourhood characteristics

OBJECTIVES

Psychotic disorder incidence varies geographically and is associated with neighbourhood characteristics, including social deprivation, population density, unemployment, social capital or social fragmentation. Yet it is not known whether these findings are applicable to Australia's unique geography. This study aimed to determine whether the incidence of first episode psychosis (FEP) varies according to neighbourhood characteristics in an Australian cohort.

METHOD

This study included all young people, aged 15 to 24, with an FEP who attended Orygen Youth Health in Melbourne, from a geographically defined catchment area encompassing Northern and Western Melbourne, over a 44-month period. Neighbourhood demographic data was collected from the 2011 Australian National Census. Negative binomial regression was used to determine incidence rate ratios controlled for age, sex and migrant status.

RESULTS

A total of 747 young people had an FEP during the 44-month study period and 722 were included in this study. Of these, 58.0% were males and 67.9% had a non-affective psychotic disorder; the mean age of the cohort was 19.1 years. The incidence of FEP in young people aged 15 to 24 in the catchment area was 123.2 per 100,000 person-years. There was a higher incidence of FEP in neighbourhoods of greatest social deprivation (IRR = 1.65, CI = 1.06-2.51, p = .02), highest unemployment (IRR = 1.56, CI = 1.04-2.35, p = .03) and above average social fragmentation (IRR = 1.42, CI = 1.02-1.97, p = .04), when controlled for age, sex and migrant status.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights variation in psychotic disorder incidence and the need for this disparity to be reflected in appropriate resource allocation.

Sleep Disorders in Early Psychosis: Incidence, Severity, and Association With Clinical Symptoms

Sleep disturbance is known to be associated with psychosis, but sleep disorders (eg, insomnia, nightmare disorder, sleep apnea) have rarely been investigated. We aimed to provide the first detailed assessment of sleep disorders and their correlates in patients with early psychosis. Sixty outpatients aged between 18 and 30 with nonaffective psychosis were assessed for sleep disorder presence, severity, and treatment using a structured diagnostic interview, sleep diaries, and actigraphy. Psychotic experiences, mood, and psychological wellbeing were also measured. Forty-eight patients (80%) had at least one sleep disorder, with insomnia and nightmare disorder being the most common. Comorbidity of sleep disorders within this group was high, with an average of 3.3 sleep disorders per patient. Over half of the sleep disorders had been discussed with a clinician but almost three-quarters had received no treatment. Treatment according to clinical guidelines was rare, occurring in only 8% of cases (n = 13). Sleep disorders were significantly associated with increased psychotic experiences, depression, anxiety, fatigue, and lower quality of life. Sleep disorders are very common in patients with psychosis, may have wide-ranging negative effects, and merit routine assessment and treatment in psychiatric practice.

Financial difficulties and psychosis risk in British undergraduate students: a longitudinal analysis

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether financial variables impact psychosis risk over time in students.

Design/methodology/approach

In total, 408 first-year British undergraduate students completed measures assessing psychosis risk and finances at three time points.

Findings

Greater financial difficulties increased psychosis risk cross sectionally both in terms of symptoms and distress. Other financial variables such as student loan amount were not significant. In longitudinal analysis financial difficulties increase psychotic symptoms and distress over time, but there was no impact of psychotic symptoms on later financial difficulties.

Research limitations/implications

The study used a relatively small and heavily female sample. Future research is needed to confirm the findings.

Practical implications

Whilst amount of debt does not appear to impact psychotic symptoms in students, greater financial difficulties appear to increase the risk of psychosis over time. Professionals working with students should be aware of this potential link.

Originality/value

This is the first time a longitudinal study has examined the effect of finances on psychosis symptoms.

Socioeconomic inequalities in duration of untreated psychosis: evidence from administrative data in England

BACKGROUND

Duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) is an important measure of access to care as it predicts prognosis and treatment outcomes. Little is known about potential socioeconomic inequalities in DUP. The aim of this study was to investigate inequalities in DUP associated with socioeconomic deprivation in a national cohort in England.

METHOD

We analysed a cohort of 887 patients with a first-episode in psychosis using the administrative Mental Health Services Dataset in England for 2012/13-2014/15. We used a Generalised Linear Model to account for non-linearity in DUP and looked at inequalities across the whole distribution of DUP using quantile regression.

RESULTS

The median DUP was 22 days (mean = 74 days) with considerable variations between and within the 31 hospital providers. We found evidence of significant inequalities regarding the level of socioeconomic deprivation. Patients living in the second, third and fourth deprived neighbourhood quintiles faced a 36, 24 and 31 day longer DUP than patients from the least deprived neighbourhoods. Inequalities were more prevalent in higher quantiles of the DUP distribution. Unemployment prolonged DUP by 40 days. Having been in contact with mental health care services prior to the psychosis start significantly reduced the DUP by up to 53 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Socioeconomic deprivation is an important factor in explaining inequalities in DUP. Policies to improve equitable access to care should particularly focus on preventing very long delays in treatment and target unemployed patients as well as people that have not been in contact with any mental health professional in the past.

First Presentation With Psychotic Symptoms in a Population-Based Sample

OBJECTIVE

Increasing evidence supports the effectiveness of comprehensive early intervention at first onset of psychotic symptoms. Implementation of early intervention programs will require population-based data on overall incidence of psychotic symptoms and on care settings of first presentation.

METHODS

In five large health care systems, electronic health records data were used to identify all first occurrences of psychosis diagnoses among persons ages 15-59 between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2013 (N=37,843). For a random sample of these putative cases (N=1,337), review of full-text medical records confirmed clinician documentation of psychotic symptoms and excluded those with documented prior diagnosis of or treatment for psychosis. Initial incidence rates (based on putative cases) and confirmation rates (from record reviews) were used to estimate true incidence according to age and setting of initial presentation.

RESULTS

Annual incidence estimates based on putative cases were 126 per 100,000 among those ages 15-29 and 107 per 100,000 among those ages 30-59. Rates of chart review confirmation ranged from 84% among those ages 15-29 diagnosed in emergency department or inpatient mental health settings to 19% among those ages 30-59 diagnosed in general medical outpatient settings. Estimated true incidence rates were 86 per 100,000 per year among those ages 15-29 and 46 per 100,000 among those ages 30-59.

CONCLUSIONS

When all care settings were included, incidence of first-onset psychotic symptoms was higher than previous estimates based on surveys or inpatient data. Early intervention programs must accommodate frequent presentation after age 30 and presentation in outpatient settings, including primary care.

Understanding causes of and developing effective interventions for schizophrenia and other psychoses

Background

Early-intervention services (EISs) offer prompt and effective care to individuals with first-episode psychosis (FEP) and detect people at high risk (HR) of developing it.

Aims

We aimed to educate general practitioners about psychosis and guide their referrals to specialist care; investigate determinants of the transition of HR to FEP; and predict numbers of new cases to guide policy and service planning.

Incidence of psychosis in socially and ethnically diverse settings

We studied the incidence of new referrals for psychosis in a well-established EIS called CAMEO [seewww.cameo.nhs.uk(accessed 18 January 2016)] and built on other epidemiological studies. The overall incidence of FEP was 45.1 per 100,000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 40.8 to 49.9 per 100,000 person-years]. This was two to three times higher than the incidence predicated by the UK Department of Health. We found considerable psychosis morbidity in diverse, rural communities.

Development of a population-level prediction tool for the incidence of FEP

We developed and validated a population-level prediction tool, PsyMaptic, capable of accurately estimating the expected incidence of psychosis [seewww.psymaptic.org/(accessed 18 January 2016)].

The Liaison with Education and General practiceS (LEGS) trial to detect HR

We tested a theory-based intervention to improve detection and referral of HR individuals in a cluster randomised controlled trial involving primary care practices in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough. Consenting practices were randomly allocated to (1) low-intensity liaison with secondary care, a postal campaign to help with the identification and referral of individuals with early signs of psychosis, or (2) the high-intensity theory-based intervention, which, in addition to the postal campaign, included a specialist mental health professional to liaise with each practice. Practices that did not consent to be randomised included a practice-as-usual (PAU) group. The approaches were implemented over 2 years for each practice between April 2010 and October 2013. New referrals were stratified into those who met criteria for HR/FEP (together: psychosis true positives) and those who did not fulfil such criteria (false positives). The primary outcome was the number of HR referrals per practice. Referrals from PAU practices were also analysed. We quantified the cost-effectiveness of the interventions and PAU using the incremental cost per additional true positive identified. Of 104 eligible practices, 54 consented to be randomised. Twenty-eight practices were randomised to low-intensity liaison and 26 practices were randomised to the high-intensity intervention. Two high-intensity practices withdrew. High-intensity practices referred more HR [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.2, 95% CI 0.9 to 5.1;p = 0.08], FEP (IRR 1.9, 95% CI 1.05 to 3.4;p = 0.04) and true-positive (IRR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.6;p = 0.02) cases. High-intensity practices also referred more false-positive cases (IRR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.0;p = 0.005); most (68%) of these were referred on to appropriate services. The total costs per true-positive referral in high-intensity practices were lower than those in low-intensity or PAU practices. Increasing the resources aimed at managing the primary–secondary care interface provided clinical and economic value.

The Prospective Analysis of At-risk mental states and Transitions into psycHosis (PAATH) study

We aimed to identify the proportion of individuals at HR who make the transition into FEP and to elucidate the common characteristics that can help identify them. Sixty help-seeking HR individuals aged 16–35 years were stratified into those who met the criteria for HR/FEP (true positives) according to the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States (CAARMS) and those who did not (false positives). HR participants were followed up over 2 years using a comprehensive interview schedule. A random sample of 60 healthy volunteers (HVs) matched for age (16–35 years), sex and geographical area underwent the same battery of questionnaires. Only 5% of our HR sample transitioned to a structured clinical diagnosis of psychosis over 2 years. HR individuals had a higher prevalence of moderate or severe depression, anxiety and suicidality than HVs. In fact, psychometric analyses in other population samples indicate that psychotic experiences measure the severe end of a common mental distress factor, consistent with these results. HR individuals also experienced significantly more traumatic events than HVs, but equivalent distress. Almost half of HR individuals had at least one Schneiderian first-rank symptom traditionally considered indicative of schizophrenia and 21.6% had more than one. HR individuals had very poor global functioning and low quality of life.

Conclusions

This National Institute for Health Research programme developed our understanding of the social epidemiology of psychosis. A new theory-based intervention doubled the identification of HR and FEP in primary care and was cost-effective. The HR mental state has much in common with depression and anxiety; very few people transitioned to full psychosis over 2 years, in line with other recent evidence. This new understanding will help people at HR receive appropriate services focused on their current mental state.

Trial registration

The primary LEGS trial is registered as ISRCTN70185866 and UKCRN ID 7036. The PAATH study is registered as UKCRN ID 7798.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Programme Grants for Applied Research programme.

Social and spatial heterogeneity in psychosis proneness in a multilevel case-prodrome-control study

OBJECTIVE

To test whether spatial and social neighbourhood patterning of people at ultra-high risk (UHR) of psychosis differs from first-episode psychosis (FEP) participants or controls and to determine whether exposure to different social environments is evident before disorder onset.

METHOD

We tested differences in the spatial distributions of representative samples of FEP, UHR and control participants and fitted two-level multinomial logistic regression models, adjusted for individual-level covariates, to examine group differences in neighbourhood-level characteristics.

RESULTS

The spatial distribution of controls (n = 41) differed from UHR (n = 48; P = 0.04) and FEP participants (n = 159; P = 0.01), whose distribution was similar (P = 0.17). Risk in FEP and UHR groups was associated with the same neighbourhood-level exposures: proportion of single-parent households [FEP adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.56 95% CI: 1.00-2.45; UHR aOR: 1.59; 95% CI: 0.99-2.57], ethnic diversity (FEP aOR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.02-1.58; UHR aOR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.00-1.63) and multiple deprivation (FEP aOR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.78-1.00; UHR aOR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.76-0.99).

CONCLUSION

Similar neighbourhood-level exposures predicted UHR and FEP risk, whose residential patterning was closer to each other's than controls. Adverse social environments are associated with psychosis before FEP onset.

Rural and remote early psychosis intervention services: the Gordian knot of early intervention

AIM

One of the basic challenges of Early Psychosis Intervention (EPI) programs for rural populations is translating best practice which developed for urban high-population density areas to rural and remote settings. This paper presents data from two different models (hub and spoke and specialist outreach) of rural EPI practice in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study used a convenience sample of clients from two rural EPI programs between 2005 and 2007. Data about client outcomes specific to general functioning, admissions to hospital and emergency room (ER) visits were collected. For all dichotomous variables, chi-square tests were used to test differences between two groups.

RESULTS

The total clients served in hub and spoke were 457 compared to 91 in specialist outreach. Although not statistically significant, the hub and spoke group showed better functioning in the community. There was a significant difference between the two groups with regard to hospital admissions. Although not significant, there was a greater percentage (58.3%) of specialist outreach clients who visited the ER in the previous 12 months as compared to clients serviced by the hub and spoke model (34.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

The observed data from these two rural models suggest that there may be differing outcomes. There are limitations to this study, and this paper does not address why there are differences. Future work needs to continue to further explore why differences exist and whether they persist so we can provide equity and quality care for rural and remote populations.

First-contact incidence of psychosis in north-eastern Italy: influence of age, gender, immigration and socioeconomic deprivation

BACKGROUND

Considerable variations in the incidence of psychosis have been observed across countries, in terms of age, gender, immigration status, urbanicity and socioeconomic deprivation.

AIMS

To evaluate the incidence rate of first-episode psychosis in a large area of north-eastern Italy and the distribution of the above-mentioned risk factors in individuals with psychoses.

METHOD

Epidemiologically based survey. Over a 3-year period individuals with psychosis on first contact with services were identified and diagnosed according to ICD-10 criteria.

RESULTS

In total, 558 individuals with first-episode psychosis were identified during 3,077,555 person-years at risk. The annual incidence rate per 100,000 was 18.1 for all psychoses, 14.3 for non-affective psychoses and 3.8 for affective psychoses. The rate for all psychoses was higher in young people aged 20-29 (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 4.18, 95% CI 2.77-6.30), immigrants (IRR = 2.26, 95% CI 1.85-2.75) and those living in the most deprived areas (IRR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.54-2.85).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence rate in our study area was lower than that found in other European and North American studies and provides new insights into the factors that may increase and/or decrease risk for developing psychosis.

[First-episodes psychosis: clinical and epidemiological news]

In the context of the development of early intervention for first-episode psychosis, this manuscript reviews new data with respect to its incidence, risk factors and evolution. Annual incidence of non-affective psychosis appeared to be between 14 and 30/100,000 in people aged 18-64. Incidence decreases with age and is twice higher in men than in women. There is an interaction between age and gender; the risk of psychosis decreases with age faster in men than in women. Thus, for schizophrenia, incidence rate is twice higher in men under 45 year-old and similar in both genders after. There is evidence that genetic and environmental factors may cause enduring liability to psychotic disorder, and, in addition, that genes and environment may interact synergistically. Some environmental factors have been identified; they concern foetal life, childhood or adolescence and may be conceptualized at the individual or the contextual level. The definition of recent onset psychosis may be based on duration of psychosis, between two and five years. Its development is identified through the occurrence of major psychotic symptoms, such as positive, negative symptomatology or disorganization, and impairment of social functioning. The types and patterns of occurrence and of evolution of psychotic symptoms have a prognostic impact. A long duration of untreated psychosis impacts symptomatology. It is associated with less severe positive symptoms at baseline and more severe after three years, insidious onset, male gender, early onset, and diagnosis of schizophrenia. Recent onset psychosis is often associated with comorbidities, such as depression, anxiety disorders, suicidal behaviours, and addiction. Symptomatic remission rates are found between 25 and 60%. Symptomatic and functional remissions favour each other. A third to half of patients is active, employed or students. Symptoms and evolution are various in studies, probably corresponding to various patho-physiological mechanisms.

Parity of esteem begins at home: translating empirical psychiatric research into effective public mental health

There is increasing recognition that parity of esteem between mental and physical health disorders is essential to improve the course, outcome and quality of life of individuals within different populations. Achieving this parity now underpins the objectives of several nations. Here, we argue that parity of esteem between mental and physical health can only be realized when parity of esteem also exists across mental health disorders, particularly in terms of service commissioning and planning. Using first-episode psychosis and early intervention in psychosis services as a motivating example, we demonstrate how carefully conducted psychiatric epidemiology can be translated to develop precise forecasts of the anticipated incidence of first-episode psychosis in different populations, based on an understanding of underlying local needs and inequalities. Open-access prediction tools such as PsyMaptic will allow commissioners of mental health services to more effectively allocate resources across services, based on empirical evidence and local need, thus reducing inequalities in access to mental health care.

Patients With First-Episode Psychosis are Not a Homogeneous Population: Implications for Treatment

Objective: This study aimed at defining the characteristics of a population of patients diagnosed with first-episode psychosis (FEP), and accessing for the first time a center for early intervention in psychosis in the health district of Milan and its surroundings. Methods: Patients were included in the study from January 2007 to December 2008; criteria: first contact with any public mental health service of the catchment area for a first episode of schizophrenia or related syndromes according to the ICD-10 criteria. Cluster analysis was used to divide patients into groups based on the main socio-demographic and clinical characteristics at presentation. Results: Overall, 91 FEP patients were enrolled in the study. Two clusters were identified, which differed principally by symptom profile. Patients in cluster 1 (n=36) had severe agitation, and a history of alcohol and/or substance abuse at presentation more often than those in cluster 2 (n=55), who were more likely to suffer at presentation from severe depression or apathy, anxiety, poor self-care, functional or work impairment and severe social withdrawal. After six months of treatment patients improved on almost all symptomatic dimensions on the Health of the Nation Outcome Scale and the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, with greater improvement in cluster 1 than in cluster 2. Conclusions: The findings of this study need replication in larger samples and on a wider severity scale. Nevertheless, the heterogeneity of patients with FEP might impact on treatment. Policymakers should recognize the importance of the diagnostic and outcome assessment in the treatment of severe mental disorders.

Neighbourhood-level socio-environmental factors and incidence of first episode psychosis by place at onset in rural Ireland: the Cavan-Monaghan First Episode Psychosis Study [CAMFEPS]

BACKGROUND

Little is known about associations between the social environment and risk for psychosis within rural settings. This study sought to investigate whether such associations exist within a rural context using a prospective dataset of unusual epidemiological completeness.

METHOD

Using the Cavan-Monaghan First Episode Psychosis Study database of people aged 16 years and older, both ecological analyses and multilevel modelling were applied to investigate associations between incidence of psychosis by place at onset and socio-environmental risk factors of material deprivation, social fragmentation and urban-rural classification across electoral divisions.

RESULTS

The primary finding was an association between more deprived social contexts and higher rates of psychotic disorder, after adjustment for age and sex [all psychoses: incidence rate ratio (IRR)=1.12, 95% CI (1.03-1.23)].

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support an association between adverse socio-environmental factors and increase in risk for psychosis by place at onset within a predominantly rural environment. This study suggests that social environmental characteristics may have an impact on risk across the urban-rural gradient.

Clinical utility of machine-learning approaches in schizophrenia: improving diagnostic confidence for translational neuroimaging

Machine-learning approaches are becoming commonplace in the neuroimaging literature as potential diagnostic and prognostic tools for the study of clinical populations. However, very few studies provide clinically informative measures to aid in decision-making and resource allocation. Head-to-head comparison of neuroimaging-based multivariate classifiers is an essential first step to promote translation of these tools to clinical practice. We systematically evaluated the classifier performance using back-to-back structural MRI in two field strengths (3- and 7-T) to discriminate patients with schizophrenia (n = 19) from healthy controls (n = 20). Gray matter (GM) and white matter images were used as inputs into a support vector machine to classify patients and control subjects. Seven Tesla classifiers outperformed the 3-T classifiers with accuracy reaching as high as 77% for the 7-T GM classifier compared to 66.6% for the 3-T GM classifier. Furthermore, diagnostic odds ratio (a measure that is not affected by variations in sample characteristics) and number needed to predict (a measure based on Bayesian certainty of a test result) indicated superior performance of the 7-T classifiers, whereby for each correct diagnosis made, the number of patients that need to be examined using the 7-T GM classifier was one less than the number that need to be examined if a different classifier was used. Using a hypothetical example, we highlight how these findings could have significant implications for clinical decision-making. We encourage the reporting of measures proposed here in future studies utilizing machine-learning approaches. This will not only promote the search for an optimum diagnostic tool but also aid in the translation of neuroimaging to clinical use.

Ethnic minority position and risk for psychotic disorders

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This article reviews the recent literature about migration, ethnic minority position and the risk of psychotic disorders.

RECENT FINDINGS

A meta-analysis found that both first and second-generation migrants have on average a two-fold increase in risk for psychotic disorders. In the Netherlands, the risk was most elevated for individuals who migrated in early childhood. Several studies investigated diagnostic ethnic bias and reported greater likelihood of schizophrenia diagnosis in ethnic minority patients at the cost of diagnosis of affective psychotic disorders. Neighbourhood ethnic density was related to prevalence of psychotic experiences in ethnic minority populations in the UK. Perceived discrimination was associated with severity of psychotic and depressive symptoms in ethnic minority patients. Both weak and strong ethnic identification, as well as experiences of social adversity, were related to risk for psychosis. Low neonatal vitamin D was associated with adult risk for psychosis and vitamin D levels in childhood were associated with nonclinical psychotic experiences.

SUMMARY

The risk for psychotic disorders is increased among ethnic minority populations. Experiences of social adversity and having a disadvantaged outsider status may explain the excess risk. More research is needed into potential biological mechanisms, including vitamin D.

A population-level prediction tool for the incidence of first-episode psychosis: translational epidemiology based on cross-sectional data

OBJECTIVES

Specialist early intervention services (EIS) for people aged 14-35 years with first episodes of psychosis (FEP) have been commissioned throughout England since 2001. A single estimate of population need was used everywhere, but true incidence varies enormously according to sociodemographic factors. We sought to develop a realistically complex, population-based prediction tool for FEP, based on precise estimates of epidemiological risk.

DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS

Data from 1037 participants in two cross-sectional population-based FEP studies were fitted to several negative binomial regression models to estimate risk coefficients across combinations of different sociodemographic and socioenvironmental factors. We applied these coefficients to the population at-risk of a third, socioeconomically different region to predict expected caseload over 2.5 years, where the observed rates of ICD-10 F10-39 FEP had been concurrently ascertained via EIS.

SETTING

Empirical population-based epidemiological data from London, Nottingham and Bristol predicted counts in the population at-risk in the East Anglia region of England.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Observed counts were compared with predicted counts (with 95% prediction intervals (PI)) at EIS and local authority district (LAD) levels in East Anglia to establish the predictive validity of each model.

RESULTS

A model with age, sex, ethnicity and population density performed most strongly, predicting 508 FEP participants in EIS in East Anglia (95% PI 459, 559), compared with 522 observed participants. This model predicted correctly in 5/6 EIS and 19/21 LADs. All models performed better than the current gold standard for EIS commissioning in England (716 cases; 95% PI 664-769).

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a prediction tool for the incidence of psychotic disorders in England and Wales, made freely available online (http://www.psymaptic.org), to provide healthcare commissioners with accurate forecasts of FEP based on robust epidemiology and anticipated local population need. The initial assessment of some people who do not require subsequent EIS care means additional service resources, not addressed here, will be required.

Incidence of schizophrenia and other psychoses in England, 1950-2009: a systematic review and meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

We conducted a systematic review of incidence rates in England over a sixty-year period to determine the extent to which rates varied along accepted (age, sex) and less-accepted epidemiological gradients (ethnicity, migration and place of birth and upbringing, time).

OBJECTIVES

To determine variation in incidence of several psychotic disorders as above.

DATA SOURCES

Published and grey literature searches (MEDLINE, PSycINFO, EMBASE, CINAHL, ASSIA, HMIC), and identification of unpublished data through bibliographic searches and author communication.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Published 1950-2009; conducted wholly or partially in England; original data on incidence of non-organic adult-onset psychosis or one or more factor(s) pertaining to incidence.

PARTICIPANTS

People, 16-64 years, with first -onset psychosis, including non-affective psychoses, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, psychotic depression and substance-induced psychosis.

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

Title, abstract and full-text review by two independent raters to identify suitable citations. Data were extracted to a standardized extraction form. Descriptive appraisals of variation in rates, including tables and forest plots, and where suitable, random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions to test specific hypotheses; rate heterogeneity was assessed by the I²-statistic.

RESULTS

83 citations met inclusion. Pooled incidence of all psychoses (N = 9) was 31.7 per 100,000 person-years (95%CI: 24.6-40.9), 23.2 (95%CI: 18.3-29.5) for non-affective psychoses (N = 8), 15.2 (95%CI: 11.9-19.5) for schizophrenia (N = 15) and 12.4 (95%CI: 9.0-17.1) for affective psychoses (N = 7). This masked rate heterogeneity (I²: 0.54-0.97), possibly explained by socio-environmental factors; our review confirmed (via meta-regression) the typical age-sex interaction in psychosis risk, including secondary peak onset in women after 45 years. Rates of most disorders were elevated in several ethnic minority groups compared with the white (British) population. For example, for schizophrenia: black Caribbean (pooled RR: 5.6; 95%CI: 3.4-9.2; N = 5), black African (pooled RR: 4.7; 95%CI: 3.3-6.8; N = 5) and South Asian groups in England (pooled RR: 2.4; 95%CI: 1.3-4.5; N = 3). We found no evidence to support an overall change in the incidence of psychotic disorder over time, though diagnostic shifts (away from schizophrenia) were reported.

LIMITATIONS

Incidence studies were predominantly cross-sectional, limiting causal inference. Heterogeneity, while evidencing important variation, suggested pooled estimates require interpretation alongside our descriptive systematic results.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF KEY FINDINGS

Incidence of psychotic disorders varied markedly by age, sex, place and migration status/ethnicity. Stable incidence over time, together with a robust socio-environmental epidemiology, provides a platform for developing prediction models for health service planning.