Validation and Development of a Modified Breast Graded Prognostic Assessment As a Tool for Survival in Patients With Breast Cancer and Brain Metastases

A prognostic model for triple-negative breast cancer patients with liver metastasis: A population-based study

However, it is still difficult for clinicians to establish prognostic stratifications and therapeutic strategies because of the lack of tools for predicting the survival of triple-negative breast cancer patients with liver metastases (TNBC-LM). Based on clinical data from large populations, a sensitive and discriminative nomogram was developed and validated to predict the prognosis of TNBC patients with LM at initial diagnosis or at the later course.

Introduction/background

Liver metastasis (LM) in TNBC patients is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to construct a clinical model to predict the survival of TNBC-LM patients.

Materials and methods

Clinicopathologic data were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and the Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University (FAFSYU). Based on patients with newly diagnosed TNBC with LM (nTNBC-LM) from the SEER database, a predictive nomogram was established and validated. Its predictive effect on TNBC patients with LM at later disease course by enrolling TNBC patients from FAFSYU who developed LM later. The prognostic effect of different treatment for nTNBC-LM was further assessed.

Results

A prognostic model was developed and validated to predict the prognosis of TNBC-LM patients. For LM patients diagnosed at the initial or later treatment stage, the C-index (0.712, 0.803 and 0.699 in the training, validation and extended groups, respectively) and calibration plots showed the acceptable prognostic accuracy and clinical applicability of the nomogram. Surgical resection on the primary tumour and chemotherapy were found to be associated with significantly better overall survival (OS).

Conclusion

A sensitive and discriminative model was developed to predict OS in TNBC-LM patients both at and after initial diagnosis.

Real-World Experience in Hispanic Patients With Breast Cancer and Brain Metastases Using Different Prognostic Tools

PURPOSE

Only a small percentage of Hispanic patients have been included in studies that developed prognostic models for breast cancer and brain metastases. Therefore, there is a clear need for tools tailored to this demographic. This study assesses the efficacy of common prognostic tools in a Hispanic population.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We retrospectively analyzed a data set of Hispanic patients with breast cancer and newly diagnosed brain metastases from 2009 to 2023 at a single referral center. For each prognostic tool, Kaplan-Meier curves were built. The performances of the models were compared using the area under the curve (AUC), C-statistic, and Akaike information criteria (AIC).

RESULTS

Of 492 patients, the median time from breast cancer to brain metastasis diagnosis was 22.7 months (IQR, 12.1-53.3). The median overall survival was 11.6 months (95% CI, 9.9-13.4). All models were validated as prognostic tools (P < .001). The model with the better performance was the breast graded prognostic assessment (GPA; AIC, 402; AUC, 0.65), followed by the modified GPA (AIC, 406; AUC, 0.64), the disease-specific GPA (AIC, 407; AUC, 0.62), recursive partitioning analysis (AIC, 421; AUC, 0.62), and GPA (AIC, 422; AUC, 0.60).

CONCLUSIONS

The breast GPA demonstrated superior accuracy in prognosticating outcomes for Hispanic patients with breast cancer and brain metastases. This underscores the critical importance of incorporating racial and ethnic diversity in creating and validating medical prognostic tools.

New insights into HER2-low breast cancer brain metastasis: A retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

A considerable number of patients with breast cancer will suffer from brain metastasis in the advanced setting. The HER2 status serves as a significant prognostic factor and the reference of applying treatment for patients with breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM).

METHODS

Between January 2010 and July 2021, patients with BCBM who had available HER2 status were identified. The patients with HER2 1+ in immunohistochemistry (IHC) or IHC 2+ and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) negative were categorized as HER2-low. Comparisons were conducted between the HER2-low and HER2-zero population. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) after the diagnosis of BCBM. Survival outcomes were assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves with log-rank test and Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

In this study, we analyzed 71 patients with the HER2-low breast cancer subtype and 64 patients with the HER2-zero subtype. Despite the limited sample size, our findings revealed a significantly better OS for patients with HER2-low cancer compared to their HER2-zero counterparts (26 m vs 20 m, p = 0.0017). This trend was particularly notable in the HR-negative group (26 m vs 13 m, p = 0.0078), whereas no significant difference was observed among the HR-positive patients. Furthermore, Cox regression analysis revealed that the HER2-low status was an independent prognostic factor for better survival in the HR-negative patients (p = 0.046 in multivariate analysis).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients diagnosed with HER2-low BCBM exhibited a more favorable prognosis than those with HER2-zero BCBM, particularly within the HR-negative subgroup. The low expression of HER2 is supposed to be linked to the prolonged survival of BCBM patients.

Development and adaptations of the Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) scale: a systematic review

The Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) score has the best accuracy among prognostic scales for patients with brain metastases (BM). A wide range of GPA-derived scales have been established to different types of primary tumor BM. However, there is a high variability between them, and their characteristics have not been described altogether yet. We aim to summarize the features of the existent GPA-derived scales and to compare their predictor factors and their uses in clinical setting. Medline was searched from inception until January 2023 to identify studies related to the development, update, or validation of GPA. The initial search yielded 1,083 results. 16 original studies and 16 validation studies were included, comprising a total of 33,348 patients. 13 different scales were assessed, including: GPA, Diagnosis-Specific GPA, Extracranial Score, Lung-molGPA, Updated Renal GPA, Updated Gastrointestinal GPA, Modified Breast GPA, Integrated Melanoma GPA, Melanoma Mol GPA, Sarcoma GPA, Hepatocellular Carcinoma GPA, Colorectal Cancer GPA, and Uterine Cancer GPA. The most prevalent prognostic predictors were age, Karnofsky Performance Status, number of BM, and presence or absence of extracranial metastases. Treatment modalities consisted of whole brain radiation therapy, stereotactic radiosurgery, surgery, cranial radiotherapy, gamma knife radiosurgery, and BRAF inhibitor therapy. Median survival rates with no treatment and with a specific treatment ranged from 6.1 weeks to 33 months and from 3.1 to 21 months, respectively. Original GPA and GPA-derived scales are valid prognostic tools, but with heterogeneous survival results when compared to each other. More studies are needed to improve scientific evidence of these scales.

Development and external validation of a prediction model for brain metastases in patients with metastatic breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer patients with brain metastasis (BM) have a poor prognosis. This study aims to identify the risk factors of BM in patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) and establish a competing risk model for predicting the risk of brain metastases at different time points along the course of disease.

METHODS

Patients with MBC admitted to the breast disease center of Peking University First Hospital from 2008 to 2019 were selected and retrospectively analyzed to establish a risk prediction model for brain metastases. Patients with MBC admitted to eight breast disease centers from 2015 to 2017 were selected for external validation of the competing risk model. The competing risk approach was used to estimate cumulative incidence. Univariate Fine-Gray competing risk regression, optimal subset regression, and LASSO Cox regression were used to screen potential predictors of brain metastases. Based on the results, a competing risk model for predicting brain metastases was established. The discrimination of the model was evaluated using AUC, Brier score, and C-index. The calibration was evaluated by the calibration curves. The model was assessed for clinical utility by decision curve analysis (DCA), as well as by comparing the cumulative incidence of brain metastases between groups with different predicted risks.

RESULTS

From 2008 to 2019, a total of 327 patients with MBC in the breast disease center of Peking University First Hospital were admitted into the training set for this study. Among them, 74 (22.6%) patients developed brain metastases. From 2015 to 2017, a total of 160 patients with MBC in eight breast disease centers were admitted into the validation set for this study. Among them, 26 (16.3%) patients developed brain metastases. BMI, age, histological type, breast cancer subtype, and extracranial metastasis pattern were included in the final competing risk model for BM. The C-index of the prediction model in the validation set was 0.695, and the AUCs for predicting the risk of brain metastases within 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.674, 0.670, and 0.729, respectively. Time-dependent DCA curves demonstrated a net benefit of the prediction model with thresholds of 9-26% and 13-40% when predicting the risk of brain metastases at 1 and 3 years, respectively. Significant differences were observed in the cumulative incidence of brain metastases between groups with different predicted risks (P < 0.05 by Gray's test).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, a competing risk model for BM was innovatively established, with the multicenter data being used as an independent external validation set to confirm the predictive efficiency and universality of the model. The C-index, calibration curves, and DCA of the prediction model indicated good discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility, respectively. Considering the high risk of death in patients with metastatic breast cancer, the competing risk model of this study is more accurate in predicting the risk of brain metastases compared with the traditional Logistic and Cox regression models.

Narrative Review of Multidisciplinary Management of Central Nervous Involvement in Patients with HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer: Focus on Elderly Patients

The tumor biology of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer (BC) promotes the development of central nervous system (CNS) metastases, with 25% of patients with HER2-positive BC developing CNS metastases. Furthermore, the incidence of HER2-positive BC brain metastases has increased in the last decades, likely because of the improved survival with targeted therapies and better detection methods. Brain metastases are detrimental to quality of life and survival and represent a challenging clinical problem, particularly in elderly women, who comprise a substantial proportion of patients diagnosed with BC and often have comorbidities or an age-related decline in organ function. Treatment options for patients with BC brain metastases include surgical resection, whole-brain radiation therapy, stereotactic radiosurgery, chemotherapy, and targeted agents. Ideally, local and systemic treatment decisions should be made by a multidisciplinary team, with input from several specialties, based on an individualized prognostic classification. In elderly patients with BC, additional age-associated conditions, such as geriatric syndromes or comorbidities, and the physiologic changes associated with aging, may impact their ability to tolerate cancer therapy and should be considered in the treatment decision-making process. This review describes the treatment options for elderly patients with HER2-positive BC and brain metastases, focusing on the importance of multidisciplinary management, the different points of view from the distinct disciplines, and the role of oncogeriatric and palliative care in this vulnerable patient group.

Prognosis of breast cancer patients with brain metastasis treated with radiotherapy

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy for patients diagnosed with metastatic breast cancer (BC) has improved in recent years, especially due to better systemic treatment. This has led to an increased incidence of brain metastases (BM), and BC is now the leading cause of BM in women. Treatment of BM primarily consists of surgery and/or radiotherapy. We aimed to investigate survival time and prognostic factors for BC patients treated with radiotherapy for BM.

MATERIAL & METHODS

During the period 1st of January 2015 to 1st of June 2020, 144 consecutive BC patients treated for BM from one centre were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were either diagnosed with BM as the first metastatic lesion, or developed BM during palliative therapy for distant non-brain metastasis. The study was approved by the Central Denmark Region.

RESULTS

Median age at BM diagnosis was 66 years, and 90% of the patients already had extracranial metastatic disease at BM diagnosis. Median overall survival after diagnosis of BM was 6.1 months. Short survival was observed for patients with poor performance status, leptomeningeal metastasis or more than three solid BM. Several of these factors were overrepresented in patients with estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) tumours who had poorer survival than patients with different receptor status.

CONCLUSION

The number of metastatic BC patients developing BM is high, and survival following local treatment remains poor. Several prognostic factors appear to influence survival after radiotherapy. Treatment of BC patients with BM should be individualized according to performance status, leptomeningeal disease, number of BM, and receptor status of the disease.

Modern Management and Diagnostics in HER2+ Breast Cancer with CNS Metastasis

Patients with HER2-positive breast cancer have seen improved survival and outcomes over the past two decades. As patients live longer, the incidence of CNS metastases has increased in this population. The authors' review outlines the most current data in HER2-positive brain and leptomeningeal metastases and discuss the current treatment paradigm in this disease. Up to 55% of HER2-positive breast cancer patients go on to experience CNS metastases. They may present with a variety of focal neurologic symptoms, such as speech changes or weakness, and may also have more diffuse symptoms related to high intracranial pressure, such as headaches, nausea, or vomiting. Treatment can include focal treatments, such as surgical resection or radiation (focal or whole-brain radiation), as well as systemic therapy options or even intrathecal therapy in the case of leptomeningeal disease. There have been multiple advancements in systemic therapy for these patients over the past few years, including the availability of tucatinib and trastuzumab-deruxtecan. Hope remains high as clinical trials for CNS metastases receive greater attention and as other HER2-directed methods are being studied in clinical trials with the goal of better outcomes for these patients.

Prognostic impact of extracranial disease control in HER2+ breast cancer-related brain metastases

BACKGROUND

Brain metastases (BM) are common among HER2+ breast cancer (BC) and prognostic stratification is crucial for optimal management. BC-GPA score and subsequent refinements (modified-GPA, updated-GPA) recapitulate prognostic factors. Since none of these indexes includes extracranial disease control, we evaluated its prognostic value in HER2+ BCBM.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with HER2+ BCBM at Istituto Oncologico Veneto-Padova (2002-2021) and Montpellier Cancer Institute (2001-2015) were included as exploratory and validation cohorts, respectively. Extracranial disease control at BM diagnosis (no disease/stable disease/response vs. progressive disease) was evaluated.

RESULTS

In the exploratory cohort of 113 patients (median OS 12.2 months), extracranial control (n = 65, 57.5%) was significantly associated with better OS at univariate (median OS 17.7 vs. 8.7 months, p = 0.005) and multivariate analysis after adjustment for BC-GPA (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.39-0.94), modified-GPA (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.98) and updated-GPA (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.41-0.98). The prognostic impact of extracranial disease control (n = 66, 56.4%) was then confirmed in the validation cohort (n = 117) at univariate (median OS 20.2 vs. 9.1 months, p < 0.001) and multivariate analysis adjusting for BC-GPA (HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.27-0.61), modified-GPA (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.29-0.67) and updated-GPA (HR 0.42, 95% CI 0.28-0.63).

CONCLUSIONS

Extracranial disease control provides independent prognostic information in HER2+ BCBM beyond commonly used prognostic scores.

Refining Therapy in Patients with HER2-Positive Breast Cancer with Central Nervous System Metastasis

Background

Brain metastasis (BM) is a major clinical problem in metastatic breast cancer (MBC), occurring in 50% of patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) breast cancer. Historically omitted from clinical trials, recent studies of novel HER2-targeted agents have focused on HER2+ BM patients, addressing stable but also progressing BM and leptomeningeal carcinomatosis (LMC).

Summary

This review aimed to summarize the most relevant data on treating patients with HER2+ BM and LMC.

Key Messages

The treatment paradigm for patients with HER2+ MBC has changed. Local therapies play an important role, but accumulating evidence on the intracranial activity and clinical benefit of anti-HER2 targeting therapies might lead to a shift in the paradigm on treating BM in the next few years towards more widespread use of systemic therapy.

Survival Prediction After Neurosurgical Resection of Brain Metastases: A Machine Learning Approach

BACKGROUND

Current prognostic models for brain metastases (BMs) have been constructed and validated almost entirely with data from patients receiving up-front radiotherapy, leaving uncertainty about surgical patients.

OBJECTIVE

To build and validate a model predicting 6-month survival after BM resection using different machine learning algorithms.

METHODS

An institutional database of 1062 patients who underwent resection for BM was split into an 80:20 training and testing set. Seven different machine learning algorithms were trained and assessed for performance; an established prognostic model for patients with BM undergoing radiotherapy, the diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment, was also evaluated. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) and calibration.

RESULTS

The logistic regression showed the best performance with an AUC of 0.71 in the hold-out test set, a calibration slope of 0.76, and a calibration intercept of 0.03. The diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment had an AUC of 0.66. Patients were stratified into regular-risk, high-risk and very high-risk groups for death at 6 months; these strata strongly predicted both 6-month and longitudinal overall survival ( P < .0005). The model was implemented into a web application that can be accessed through http://brainmets.morethanml.com .

CONCLUSION

We developed and internally validated a prediction model that accurately predicts 6-month survival after neurosurgical resection for BM and allows for meaningful risk stratification. Future efforts should focus on external validation of our model.

CSCO expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer brain metastasis

Breast cancer is one of the most common malignancies among women worldwide. According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer, breast cancer affected more Chinese women than any other cancer in 2020. The brain is an increasingly common metastatic sites of breast cancer. Although the risk of developing brain metastases (BMs) is lower in breast cancer than in lung cancer and melanoma, due to its high prevalence, it is the second most common cause of BM among solid tumors, being second only to lung cancer. The incidence of breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM) differs by molecular subtype. Half of patients with advanced human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2)-positive and one-third of patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) develop BM. The clinical manifestations of leptomeningeal metastasis (LM) are often non-specific and may manifest as a variety of signs and symptoms, mainly including brain parenchyma involvement and meningeal irritation syndromes cranial nerve involvement, increased intracranial pressure, and progressive brain dysfunction. Therefore, the Chinese Society of Clinical Oncology (CSCO) Breast Cancer Committee has developed this expert consensus on BM, in an effort to improve the overall prognosis of BCBM and promote the standardized diagnosis and treatment of this disease. During the development of this expert consensus, we carried out a comprehensive literature review and referred to some of the most authoritative guidelines in China and abroad. In this consensus, we will discuss clinical manifestations, imaging examinations, pathological diagnosis, treatments, prognosis, follow-up and monitoring. We hope this consensus will be of help to all the clinicians majored in breast cancer and other similar professions.

Treatment With Etirinotecan Pegol for Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer and Brain Metastases: Final Results From the Phase 3 ATTAIN Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Patients with breast cancer and brain metastases (BM) have a poor prognosis and high clinical need for novel treatments; however, historically, studies have often excluded these patients. Although the BEACON study did not meet its primary end point, treatment with etirinotecan pegol vs chemotherapy of the physician's choice for patients with advanced breast cancer demonstrated a significant improvement in overall survival (OS) for the prespecified patient subgroup with preexisting, pretreated, and nonprogressive BM.

Objective

To compare clinical outcomes in patients with BM treated with etirinotecan pegol vs chemotherapy of the physician's choice in a confirmatory trial.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study was a phase 3, open-label, randomized clinical trial (ATTAIN) in patients with metastatic breast cancer and a history of stable pretreated BM who experienced disease progression while receiving chemotherapy in the metastatic setting. The trial took place at 47 sites in 10 countries, and patients were enrolled between March 7, 2017, and November 6, 2019.

Interventions

Patients were randomized to receive etirinotecan pegol, 145 mg/m2, every 21 days or chemotherapy (eribulin, ixabepilone, vinorelbine, gemcitabine, paclitaxel, docetaxel, or nab-paclitaxel).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was OS. Key secondary end points included progression-free survival, objective response rate, duration of response, and the clinical benefit rate.

Results

A total of 178 female patients (9 [5.1%] Asian, 8 [4.5%] Black or African American, and 123 [69.1] White individuals) were randomized to receive treatment with etirinotecan pegol (92 [51.7%]; median [range] age, 53 [27-79] years) or chemotherapy (86 [48.3%]; median [range] age, 52 [24-77] years). Median OS was similar in both groups (etirinotecan pegol, 7.8 months; chemotherapy, 7.5 months; hazard ratio [HR], 0.90; 95% CI, 0.61-1.33; P = .60). Median progression-free survival for non-central nervous system metastases per blinded independent central review for etirinotecan pegol vs chemotherapy was 2.8 and 1.9 months (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.45-1.16; P = .18) and 3.9 vs 3.3 months, respectively, for central nervous system metastases (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.33-1.05; P = .07). Safety profiles between the groups were largely comparable.

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of the ATTAIN randomized clinical trial found no statistically significant difference in outcomes between treatment with etirinotecan pegol and chemotherapy in patients with BM. However, this study represents one of the largest published trials dedicated to patients with breast cancer and BM and may help to inform further research.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02915744.

A Novel Staging System for De Novo Metastatic Breast Cancer Refines Prognostic Estimates

OBJECTIVE

We aim to identify prognostic groups within a de novo metastatic cohort, incorporating both anatomic and biologic factors.

BACKGROUND

Staging for breast cancer now includes anatomic and biologic factors, although the guidelines for stage IV disease do not account for how these factors may influence outcomes.

METHODS

Adults with de novo metastatic breast cancer were selected from the National Cancer DataBase (2010-2013). Recursive partitioning analysis was used to group patients with similar overall survival (OS) based on clinical T/N stage, tumor grade, ER, PR, HER2, number of metastatic sites, and presence of bone-only metastases. Categories were created by amalgamating homogeneous groups based on 3-year OS rates (stage IVA: >50%, stage IVB: 30%-50%, stage IVC: <30%).

RESULTS

16,187 patients were identified; median follow-up was 32 months. 65.2% had 1 site of distant metastasis, and 42.9% had bone-only metastases. Recursive partitioning analysis identified the number of metastatic sites (1 vs >1) as the first stratification point, and ER status as the second stratification point for both resulting groups. Additional divisions were made based on HER2 status, PR status, cT stage, tumor grade, and presence of bone-only metastases. After bootstrapping, significant differences in 3-year OS were noted between the 3 groups [stage IVB vs IVA: HR 1.58 (95% confidence interval 1.50-1.67), stage IVC vs IVA: HR 3.54 (95% confidence interval 3.33-3.77)].

CONCLUSIONS

Both anatomic and biologic factors yielded reliable and reproducible prognostic estimates among patients with metastatic disease. These findings support formal stratification of de novo stage IV breast cancer into 3 distinct prognosis groups.

Prediction of Short and Long Survival after Surgery for Breast Cancer Brain Metastases

Background: Brain metastases requiring surgical treatment determine the prognosis of patients with breast cancer. We aimed to develop the scores for the prediction of short (<6 months) and long (≥3 years) survival after BCBM surgery. Methods: Female patients with BCBM surgery between 2008 and 2019 were included. The new scores were constructed upon independent predictors for short and long postoperative survival. Results: In the final cohort (n = 95), 18 (18.9%) and 22 (23.2%) patients experienced short and long postoperative survival, respectively. Breast-preserving surgery, presence of multiple brain metastases and age ≥ 65 years at breast cancer diagnosis were identified as independent predictors of short postoperative survival. In turn, positive HER2 receptor status in brain metastases, time interval ≥ 3 years between breast cancer and brain metastases diagnosis and KPS ≥ 90% independently predicted long survival. The appropriate short and long survival scores showed higher diagnostic accuracy for the prediction of short (AUC = 0.773) and long (AUC = 0.775) survival than the breast Graded Prognostic Assessment score (AUC = 0.498/0.615). A cumulative survival score (total score) showed significant association with overall survival (p = 0.001). Conclusion: We identified predictors independently impacting the prognosis after BCBM surgery. After external validation, the presented scores might become useful tools for the selection of proper candidates for BCBM surgery.

Clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis of breast cancer patients with isolated central nervous system metastases in the multicentre ESME database

Background:

As a result of progress in diagnosis and treatment, there is a growing prevalence of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) with isolated CNS metastases. This study describes the largest-to-date real-life cohort of this clinical setting and compares it to other clinical presentations.

Methods:

We retrospectively analysed the French Epidemiological Strategy and Medical Economics (ESME) MBC database including patients who initiated treatment for MBC between 2008 and 2016. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Descriptive statistics and multivariate Cox model were used.

Results:

Of 22,266 patients, 647 (2.9%) and 929 (4.2%) patients had isolated first-site CNS metastases or combined with extra-CNS metastases, with longer OS for the group with isolated CNS metastases (16.9 versus 13.9 months, adjusted HR = 1.69 (95% CI: 1.50–1.91), p < 0.001). Among the 541 (2.4%) patients with isolated CNS metastases and no intrathecal therapy (excluding leptomeningeal metastases), HER2+ cases were preponderant over TN or HR+ /HER2− cases (41.6% versus 26.1% versus 28.5%, respectively, p < 0.01). The treatment strategy consisted of a combination of local treatment and systemic therapy (49.2%), local treatment only (35.5%) or systemic therapy only (11.4%), or symptomatic therapy only (3.9%). Median PFS was 6.1 months (95% CI: 5.7–6.8). Median OS was 20.7 months (95% CI: 17.3–24.3), reaching 37.9 months (95% CI: 25.9–47.6) in the HR+ /HER2+ subgroup. Older age, TN subtype, MBC-free interval of 6–12 months, lower performance status, and WBRT were associated with poorer survival. Patients who received systemic therapy within 3 months from MBC diagnosis had longer OS (24.1 versus 16.1 months, p = 0.031), but this was not significant on multivariate analysis [HR = 1.0 (95% CI: 0.7–1.3), p = 0.806].

Conclusions:

Patients with isolated CNS metastases at MBC diagnosis represent a distinct population for which the role of systemic therapy needs to be further investigated in prospective studies.

The Usefulness of Prognostic Tools in Breast Cancer Patients with Brain Metastases

Simple Summary

Due to the variability of an individual’s prognosis and the variety of treatment options available to breast cancer (BC) patients with brain metastases (BM), establishing the proper therapy is challenging. Since 1997, several prognostic tools for BC patients with BM have been proposed with variable precision in determining the overall survival. The majority of prognostic tools include the performance status, the age at BM diagnosis, the number of BM, the primary tumor phenotype/genotype and the extracranial metastases status as an outcome of systemic therapy efficacy. It is necessary to update the prognostic indices used by physicians as advances in local and systemic treatments develop and change the parameters of survival. Free access to prognostic tools online may increase their routine adoption in clinical practice. Clinical trials on BC patients with BM remains a broad field for the application of prognostic tools.

Abstract

Background: Determining the proper therapy is challenging in breast cancer (BC) patients with brain metastases (BM) due to the variability of an individual’s prognosis and the variety of treatment options available. Several prognostic tools for BC patients with BM have been proposed. Our review summarizes the current knowledge on this topic. Methods: We searched PubMed for prognostic tools concerning BC patients with BM, published from January 1997 (since the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group developed) to December 2021. Our criteria were limited to adults with newly diagnosed BM regardless of the presence or absence of any leptomeningeal metastases. Results: 31 prognostic tools were selected: 13 analyzed mixed cohorts with some BC cases and 18 exclusively analyzed BC prognostic tools. The majority of prognostic tools in BC patients with BM included: the performance status, the age at BM diagnosis, the number of BM (rarely the volume), the primary tumor phenotype/genotype and the extracranial metastasis status as a result of systemic therapy. The prognostic tools differed in their specific cut-off values. Conclusion: Prognostic tools have variable precision in determining the survival of BC patients with BM. Advances in local and systemic treatment significantly affect survival, therefore, it is necessary to update the survival indices used depending on the type and period of treatment.

Radiographic markers of breast cancer brain metastases: relation to clinical characteristics and postoperative outcome

Objective

Occurrence of brain metastases BM is associated with poor prognosis in patients with breast cancer (BC). Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the standard of care in the diagnosis of BM and determines further treatment strategy. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the association between the radiographic markers of BCBM on MRI with other patients’ characteristics and overall survival (OS).

Methods

We included 88 female patients who underwent BCBM surgery in our institution from 2008 to 2019. Data on demographic, clinical, and histopathological characteristics of the patients and postoperative survival were collected from the electronic health records. Radiographic features of BM were assessed upon the preoperative MRI. Univariable and multivariable analyses were performed.

Results

The median OS was 17 months. Of all evaluated radiographic markers of BCBM, only the presence of necrosis was independently associated with OS (14.5 vs 22.5 months, p = 0.027). In turn, intra-tumoral necrosis was more often in individuals with shorter time interval between BC and BM diagnosis (< 3 years, p = 0.035) and preoperative leukocytosis (p = 0.022). Moreover, dural affection of BM was more common in individuals with positive human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status (p = 0.015) and supratentorial BM location (p = 0.024).

Conclusion

Intra-tumoral necrosis demonstrated significant association with OS after BM surgery in patients with BC. The radiographic pattern of BM on the preoperative MRI depends on certain tumor and clinical characteristics of patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00701-021-05026-4.

Novel prognostic classification predicts overall survival of patients receiving salvage whole-brain radiotherapy for recurrent brain metastasis from breast cancer: A recursive partitioning analysis (KROG 16-12)

Background

To investigate outcomes of salvage whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) for recurrent brain metastases (BM) from breast cancer (BC), to identify prognostic factors of overall survival (OS), and to propose a novel prognostic classification for OS in these patients.

Materials and methods

We identified 54 patients who had received salvage WBRT as the second brain-focused treatment for recurrent BM from BC (2000–2014). The median follow-up duration was 4.9 months. A recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was conducted to develop a model to predict OS at the time of salvage WBRT.

Results

The median OS was 6.8 months. OS according to BC-specific graded prognostic assessment (breast-GPA), modified breast-GPA, and updated breast-GPA did not represent our cohort. In the multivariate analysis, a long time before salvage WBRT (≥16 months), control of primary BC or extracranial metastases, systemic treatment after salvage WBRT, and administration of a biologically effective dose for an α/β of 10 Gy (BED10) of salvage WBRT >37.5 Gy showed superior OS. We proposed three RPA classes based on the control of both primary BC and extracranial metastasis and BED10 of salvage WBRT: class I, class II, and class III. In this model, patients with class I experienced the best OS (34.6 months; class II, 5.0 months; class III, 2.4 months; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

In our RPA classification according to the control of both primary BC and extracranial metastasis and the dose of salvage WBRT, significant differences in OS were observed. The subsequent use of a systemic treatment showed better OS.

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Multicenter retrospective study of salvage WBRT for recurrent brain metastasis.

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Subsequent use of systemic treatment after salvage WBRT showing better OS.

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Limitations of previous graded prognostic assessments for recurrent brain metastasis.

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Novel RPA classification consisting of four simple clinical factors predicts OS.

Clinical diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer with brain metastases and establishment of a prognostic model: a 10-year, single-center, real-world study of 559 cases

Background

This study involved a retrospective analysis of 559 metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients with brain metastasis (BM). We aimed to establish the effectiveness of different preferred treatment methods and factors affecting overall survival following BM diagnosis (BMOS) and explore the feasibility of systemic treatment for MBC patients with BM.

Methods

Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to assess the efficacy of different preferred treatments and other factors associated with BMOS, and a nomogram was then established based on the results of the univariate analysis.

Results

Patients that initially received systemic drug therapy exhibited a clinical benefit rate (CBR) of 43.9% and an intracranial disease control rate (DCR) of 80.6%. The median time between BM diagnosis and the requirement for local intracranial treatment due to worsening disease status was 10.0 months for these patients (95% CI: 7.811–12.189 months). The median follow-up was 28.0 months, and the median BMOS was 16.0 months. Following BM diagnosis, the systemic drug treatment group had a better outcome than the local brain treatment group, with a respective median BMOS of 22.0 and 16.0 months (χ²=7.743, P=0.005). At the time of BM diagnosis, the median BMOS for patients without neurological symptoms diagnosed by regular screen was significantly longer than that of patients with neurological symptoms (18.0 vs. 13.0 months, respectively; χ²=11.371, P=0.001). Based on these analyses, a nomogram was constructed that incorporated disease-free survival (DFS), Karnofsky performance status (KPS), molecular subtype, number of extracranial metastases, BM location, number of BMs, neurological symptoms, and the preferred treatment approach, with a prediction probability (c-index) value of 0.76.

Conclusions

Systemic drug treatment has a beneficial effect on brain lesions, and effective treatment delays the need for local intracranial treatment. Cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) screening can detect asymptomatic BM in MBC patients (particularly those with HER2−positive or triple-negative disease), offering these patients an opportunity to undergo systemic drug therapy, thereby prolonging their survival. To our knowledge, this is a well-fitted nomogram including current treatment and medical examination strategies to predict BMOS probability that offers value as an adjunct for the prognostic evaluation of MBC-BM patients.

Prognostic Score for De Novo Metastatic Breast Cancer With Liver Metastasis and Its Predictive Value of Locoregional Treatment Benefit

Background

There is a significant survival difference and lack of effective treatment among breast cancer patients with liver metastasis. This present study aimed to construct a novel prognostic score for predicting the prognosis and locoregional treatment benefit of de novo metastatic breast cancer with liver metastasis (BCLM).

Methods

In total, 2,398 eligible patients between 2010 and 2016 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. They were assigned to the training set including 1,662 patients (2010–2014) and validation set comprising 736 patients (2015–2016) depending on the time of diagnosis. The prognostic score was based on regression coefficients in the multivariate Cox regression analysis. And then, patients were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups by the prognostic score. The discrimination and calibration of prognostic score were evaluated using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis and calibration curves, respectively. Subgroup analysis was performed to evaluate locoregional surgery and chemotherapy benefit in different risk groups.

Results

Age, race, insurance and marital status, T stage, pathological grade, molecular subtypes, and extrahepatic metastasis were identified as independent prognostic variables in the prognostic score. The prognostic score showed high discrimination power with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 and 0.72 and excellent agreement suggested by calibration plots in the training and validation sets, respectively. Intermediate-risk [hazard ratio (HR) 2.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.09–2.73, P<0.001] and high-risk groups (HR 4.88; 95% CI 4.13–5.76; P<0.001) had significantly worse prognosis in comparison with the low-risk group. The median overall survival (OS) in three prognostic groups were 44, 18, and 7 months, with a 3-year survival rate of 56, 23, and 7%, respectively. Apart from the high-risk group (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.56–1.10; P=0.157), the low-risk (HR 0.64; 95% CI 0.49–0.84; P=0.001) and intermediate-risk groups (HR 0.68; 95% CI 0.55–0.85; P=0.001) could benefit from the surgery of primary site, while chemotherapy improved prognosis in all risk groups.

Conclusions

A prognostic score was developed to accurately predict the prognosis of de novo BCLM patients. Moreover, it may be useful for further subdividing them into different risk groups and helping guide clinicians in treatment decisions.

Isolated progression of miliary brain metastasis in a patient with stable lung adenocarcinoma successfully treated with whole-brain radiotherapy: A case report

Miliary brain metastasis is a rare form of metastasis commonly associated with advanced stages of cancer. In this article, we report a case of a 38-year-old male with solitary progression of miliary brain metastasis originating from stage 4 EML-ALK-positive lung adenocarcinoma. Multiple brain lesions were first detected upon the patient's inclusion in a brigatinib clinical trial. The brain lesions dissipated, and the lung and bone lesions decreased in size after starting the brigatinib therapy; however, the brain lesions later increased in number. A biopsy revealed miliary brain metastasis of lung adenocarcinoma. The patient was successfully treated with whole brain therapy, in addition to brigatinib. This case suggests that it is possible for an isolated miliary brain metastasis to occur during the effective suppression of systemic cancer progression. Whole brain radiotherapy while continuing effective systemic therapy is a good strategy for such patients.

Prognostic value of pretreatment MRI texture features in breast cancer brain metastasis treated with Gamma Knife radiosurgery

BACKGROUND

Gamma Knife radiosurgery (GKS) was recommended for treating patients with breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM), but predictions of the existing prognostic models for therapeutic responsiveness vary substantially.

PURPOSE

To investigate the prognostic value of pretreatment clinical, MRI radiologic, and texture features in patients with BCBM undergoing GKS.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The data of 81 BCBMs in 44 patients were retrospectively reviewed. Progressive disease was defined as an increase of at least 20% in the longest diameter of the target lesion or the presence of new intracranial lesions on contrast-enhanced T1-weighted (CE-T1W) imaging. Radiomic features were extracted from pretreatment CE-T1W images, T2-weighted (T2W) images, and ADC maps. Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed to identify independent predictors associated with BCBM-specific progression-free survival (PFS). A nomogram was constructed and its calibration ability was assessed.

RESULTS

The cumulative BCBM-specific PFS was 52.27% at six months and 11.36% at one year, respectively. Age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.06; P = 0.004) and CE-T1W-based kurtosis (HR 0.72; 95% CI 0.57-0.92; P = 0.008) were the independent predictors. The combination of CE-T1W-based kurtosis and age displayed a higher C-index (C-index 0.70; 95% CI 0.63-0.77) than did CE-T1W-based kurtosis (C-index 0.65; 95% CI 0.57-0.73) or age (C-index 0.63; 95% CI 0.56-0.70) alone. The nomogram based on the combinative model provided a better performance over age (P < 0.05). The calibration curves elucidated good agreement between prediction and observation for the probability of 7- and 12-month BCBM-specific PFS.

CONCLUSION

Pretreatment CE-T1W-based kurtosis combined with age could improve prognostic ability in patients with BCBM undergoing GKS.

Neurosurgical resection for locally recurrent brain metastasis

BACKGROUND

In patients with locally recurrent brain metastases (LRBMs), the role of (repeat) craniotomy is controversial. This study aimed to analyze long-term oncological outcomes in this heterogeneous population.

METHODS

Craniotomies for LRBM were identified from a tertiary neuro-oncological institution. First, we assessed overall survival (OS) and intracranial control (ICC) stratified by molecular profile, prognostic indices, and multimodality treatment. Second, we compared LRBMs to propensity score-matched patients who underwent craniotomy for newly diagnosed brain metastases (NDBM).

RESULTS

Across 180 patients, median survival after LRBM resection was 13.8 months and varied by molecular profile, with >24 months survival in ALK/EGFR+ lung adenocarcinoma and HER2+ breast cancer. Furthermore, 102 patients (56.7%) experienced intracranial recurrence; median time to recurrence was 5.6 months. Compared to NDBMs (n = 898), LRBM patients were younger, more likely to harbor a targetable mutation and less likely to receive adjuvant radiation (p < 0.05). After 1:3 propensity matching stratified by molecular profile, LRBM patients generally experienced shorter OS (hazard ratio 1.67 and 1.36 for patients with or without a mutation, p < 0.05) but similar ICC (hazard ratio 1.11 in both groups, p > 0.20) compared to NDBM patients with similar baseline. Results across specific molecular subgroups suggested comparable effect directions of varying sizes.

CONCLUSIONS

In our data, patients with LRBMs undergoing craniotomy comprised a subgroup of brain metastasis patients with relatively favorable clinical characteristics and good survival outcomes. Recurrent status predicted shorter OS but did not impact ICC. Craniotomy could be considered in selected, prognostically favorable patients.

Breast cancer subtype predicts clinical outcomes after stereotactic radiation for brain metastases

PURPOSE

We investigated the prognostic ability of tumor subtype for patients with breast cancer brain metastases (BCBM) treated with stereotactic radiation (SRT).

METHODS

This is a retrospective review of 181 patients who underwent SRT to 664 BCBM from 2004 to 2019. Patients were stratified by subtype: hormone receptor (HR)-positive, HER2-negative (HR+/HER2-), HR-positive, HER2-positive (HR+/HER2+), HR-negative, HER2-positive (HR-/HER2+), and triple negative (TN). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate overall survival (OS), local control (LC), and distant intracranial control (DIC) from the date of SRT. Multivariate analysis (MVA) was conducted using the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Median follow up from SRT was 11.4 months. Of the 181 patients, 47 (26%) were HR+/HER2+, 30 (17%) were HR-/HER2+, 60 (33%) were HR+/HER2-, and 44 (24%) were TN. Of the 664 BCBMs, 534 (80%) received single fraction stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) with a median dose of 21 Gy (range 12-24 Gy), and 130 (20%) received fractionated stereotactic radiation therapy (FSRT), with a median dose of 25 Gy (range 12.5-35 Gy) delivered in 3 to 5 fractions. One-year LC was 90%. Two-year DIC was 35%, 23%, 27%, and 16% (log rank, p = 0.0003) and 2-year OS was 54%, 47%, 24%, and 12% (log rank, p < 0.0001) for HR+/HER2+, HR-/HER2+, HR+/HER2-, and TN subtypes, respectively. On MVA, the TN subtype predicted for inferior DIC (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.00-2.60, p = 0.049). The modified breast-Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) significantly predicted DIC and OS (both p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Subtype is prognostic for OS and DIC for patients with BCBM treated with SRT.

Validation and comparison of Breast Graded Prognostic Assessment scores in patients with breast cancer and brain metastases

PURPOSE

Brain metastases (BM) occur in 15-35% of patients with metastatic breast cancer, conferring poor prognosis and impairing quality of life. Clinical scores have been developed to classify patients according to their prognosis. We aimed to check the utility of the Breast Graded Prognostic Assessment (B-GPA) and its modified version (mB-GPA) and compare them in routine clinical practice.

METHODS

This is an ambispective study including all patients with breast cancer BM treated in a single cancer comprehensive center. We analyzed the overall survival (OS) from BM diagnosis until death. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard regression model were used in the analyses. ROC curves were performed to compare both scores.

RESULTS

We included 169 patients; median age was 50 years. HER2-positive and triple negative patients were 33.7% and 20.7%, respectively. At the last follow-up, 90% of the patients had died. Median OS was 12 months (95% confidence interval 8.0-16.0 months). OS was worse in patients with > 3 BM and in patients with triple negative subtype.

CONCLUSIONS

In our series, we confirm that B-GPA and mB-GPA scores correlated with prognosis. ROC curves showed that B-GPA and mB-GPA have similar prognostic capabilities, slightly in favor of mB-GPA.

Trastuzumab Emtansine (T-DM1) and stereotactic radiation in the management of HER2+ breast cancer brain metastases

Background

Due to recent concerns about the toxicity of trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) with stereotactic radiation, we assessed our institutional outcomes treating HER2-positive breast cancer brain metastases (BCBM) with T-DM1 and stereotactic radiation.

Methods

This is a single institution series of 16 patients with HER2-positive breast cancer who underwent 18 stereotactic sessions to 40 BCBM from 2013 to 2019 with T-DM1 delivered within 6 months. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate overall survival (OS), local control (LC), distant intracranial control (DIC), and systemic progression-free survival (sPFS) from the date of SRS. A neuro-radiologist independently reviewed follow-up imaging.

Results

One patient had invasive lobular carcinoma, and 15 patients had invasive ductal carcinoma. All cases were HER2-positive, while 10 were hormone receptor (HR) positive. Twenty-four lesions were treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) to a median dose of 21 Gy (14–24 Gy). Sixteen lesions were treated with fractionated stereotactic radiation (FSRT) with a median dose of 25 Gy (20-30Gy) delivered in 3 to 5 fractions. Stereotactic radiation was delivered concurrently with T-DM1 in 19 lesions (48%). Median follow up time was 13.2 months from stereotactic radiation. The 1-year LC, DIC, sPFS, and OS were 75, 50, 30, and 67%, respectively. There was 1 case of leptomeningeal progression and 1 case (3%) of symptomatic radionecrosis.

Conclusions

We demonstrate that stereotactic radiation and T-DM1 is well-tolerated and effective for patients with HER2-positive BCBM. An increased risk for symptomatic radiation necrosis was not noted in our series.

Enhanced brain delivery and therapeutic activity of trastuzumab after blood-brain barrier opening by NEO100 in mouse models of brain-metastatic breast cancer

BACKGROUND

The antitumor efficacy of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-targeted therapies, such as humanized monoclonal antibody trastuzumab (Herceptin®, Roche), in patients with breast-to-brain cancer metastasis is hindered by the low permeability of the blood-brain barrier (BBB). NEO100 is a high-purity version of the natural monoterpene perillyl alcohol, produced under current good manufacturing practice (cGMP) regulations, that was shown previously to reversibly open the BBB in rodent models. Here we investigated whether NEO100 could enable brain entry of trastuzumab to achieve greater therapeutic activity.

METHODS

An in vitro BBB, consisting of human astrocytes and brain endothelial cells, was used to determine trastuzumab penetration in the presence or absence of NEO100. For in vivo studies, we administered intravenous (IV) trastuzumab or the trastuzumab-drug conjugate ado-trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1; Kadcyla®, Roche), to mouse models harboring intracranial HER2+ breast cancer, with or without BBB opening via IA NEO100. Brain and tumor tissues were examined for the presence of trastuzumab and infiltration of immune cells. Therapeutic impact was evaluated based on overall survival.

RESULTS

NEO100 greatly increased trastuzumab penetration across an in vitro BBB. In vivo, IA NEO100-mediated BBB opening resulted in brain tumor-selective accumulation of trastuzumab, without detectable presence in normal brain tissue, along with increased presence of immune cell populations. IV delivery of trastuzumab or T-DM1 achieved significantly greater overall survival of tumor-bearing mice when combined with IA NEO100.

CONCLUSION

IA NEO100 facilitates brain tumor entry of trastuzumab and T-DM1 and significantly enhances their therapeutic efficacy, along with increased antibody-dependent immune cell recruitment.

Stereotactic radiosurgery for patients with breast cancer brain oligometastases - molecular subtypes and clinical outcomes

Background

We sought to determine the clinical outcomes of patients with breast cancer (BC) who had undergone stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for a limited number of brain metastases (BM) and to identify factors influencing overall survival (OS) and local control.

Materials and methods

The records of 45 patients who underwent SRS for 72 brain lesions were retrospectively evaluated. Statistics included the chi-squared test, Kaplan-Meier method, and the multivariate Cox model.

Results

The median number of treated BM was 2 (range 1-10). Median OS from BM diagnosis and post-SRS were 27.6 [95% confidence interval (CI): 14.8-40.5) and 18.5 months (95% CI: 11.1-25.8), respectively. One-year and two-year survival rates after BM diagnosis were 55% and 41%, respectively. In a univariate analysis, the Luminal-B-human-epidermal-growth-receptor-positive (HER2+) subtype had the longest median OS at 39.1 months (95% CI: 34.1-44.1, p = 0.004). In an adjusted analysis, grade 2 [hazard ratio (HR): 0.1; 95% CI: 0.1-0.6, p = 0.005), craniotomy (HR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1-0.7; p = 0.006), and ≥ 2 systemic therapies received (HR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1-0.9, p = 0.028) were associated with improved OS. One-year and two-year intracranial progression-free survival rates were 85% and 63%, respectively. Four factors for a higher risk of any intracranial recurrence remained significant in the adjusted analysis, as follows: age < 50 years (HR: 4.2; 95% CI: 1.3-36.3; p = 0.014), grade 3 (HR: 3.7; 95% CI: 1.1-13.2; p = 0.038), HER2+ (HR: 6.9; 95% CI: 1.3-36.3; p = 0.023), and whether the brain was the first metastatic site (HR: 4.7; 95% CI: 1.6-14.5; p = 0.006).

Conclusion

Intrinsic BC characteristics are important determinants for both survival and intracranial control for patients undergoing SRS for oligometastatic brain disease.

Use of radiotherapy in breast cancer patients with brain metastases: a retrospective 11-year single center study

AIM

To analyse the use of radiotherapy (RT) and factors affecting overall survival (OS) after RT in breast cancer patients with brain metastases.

METHODS

Breast cancer patients treated from 2008 to 2018 with whole brain RT (WBRT) or stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) at a large regional cancer referral center were identified from the hospital's RT register. Clinical variables were extracted from medical records. OS was calculated from date of first RT until death or last follow up. Potential factors affecting OS were analyzed.

RESULTS

255 females with WBRT (n = 206) or SRS (n = 49) as first RT were included. An increased use of initial SRS was observed in the second half of the study period. The most common WBRT fractionation regimen was 3 Gy × 10. SRS was most often single fractions; 18 or 25 Gy between 2009 and 2016, while fractionated SRS was mostly used in 2017 and 2018. Median OS in the WBRT group was 6 months (CI 1-73) relative to 23 (CI 0-78) in the SRS group. Age, performance status, initial RT technique, extracranial disease, brain metastasis surgery, number of brain metastases and DS-GPA score had significant impact on OS. Only ECOG 0 and brain metastasis surgery were associated with superior OS in multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

WBRT was the most frequent primary RT. An increased use of initial SRS was observed in the second half of the study period. Only ECOG 0 and brain metastasis surgery were associated with superior OS in multivariate analysis.

autoRPA: A web server for constructing cancer staging models by recursive partitioning analysis

Cancer staging provides a common language that is used to describe the severity of an individual's cancer, which plays a critical role in optimizing cancer treatment. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) is the most widely accepted method for cancer staging. Despite its widespread use, to date, only limited tools have been developed to implement the RPA algorithm for cancer staging. Moreover, most of the available tools can be accessed only from command lines and also lack visualization, making them difficult for clinical investigators without programing skills to use. Therefore, we developed a web server called autoRPA that is dedicated to supporting the construction of prognostic staging models and performance comparisons among different staging models. Based on the RPA algorithm and log-rank test statistics, autoRPA can establish a decision-making tree from survival data and provide clinicians an intuitive method to further prune the decision tree. Moreover, autoRPA can evaluate the contribution of each submitted covariate that is involved in the grouping process and help identify factors that significantly contribute to cancer staging. Four indicators, including hazard consistency, hazard discrimination, percentage of variation explained, and sample size balance, are introduced to validate the performance of the designed staging models. In addition, autoRPA can also be used to compare the performance of different prognostic staging models using a standard bootstrap evaluation method. The web server of autoRPA is freely available at http://rpa.renlab.org.

Development and validation of a nomogram in survival prediction among advanced breast cancer patients

Background

The overall survival (OS) among patients with advanced breast cancer (ABC) varies greatly. Although molecular subtype is known as the most important factor in OS differentiation, significant differences in OS among patients with the same molecular subtype still occur, leading to the need for a more accurate prognostic prediction model. This study aimed to develop a prediction model (nomogram) based on current diagnosis and treatment to predict the OS of newly diagnosed ABC patients in China.

Methods

From the institution’s database, we collected data of 368 ABC patients from Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital (national hospital) as a training set to establish a nomogram with prognostic risk factors that calculated the predicted probability of survival. Nomograms were independently validated with 278 patients with ABC from two other institutions using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots and risk group stratifications.

Results

The initial primary tumor stage, molecular subtype, disease-free survival (DFS), presence of brain metastasis, and the tumor burden of metastasis disease (local recurrence, oligo-metastatic disease, or multiple-metastatic disease) were included in the prognostic nomogram. The nomogram had a C-index of 0.77 and 0.71 in the training and the validation sets, respectively. The nomogram was able to stratify patients into different risk groups, respectively (HR 6.81, 95% CI: 4.69 to 9.89, P<0.001). In the lower risk score group (risk score <11), there was no significant difference between the OS with chemotherapy and hormone therapy (HR 0.81, 95% CI: 0.44 to 1.47, P=0.48).

Conclusions

We have constructed a novel prediction nomogram that can guide the physicians to select personalized treatment options. Furthermore, our study is the first to add oligo-metastatic disease and primary endocrine/trastuzumab resistance into the prognostic models.

A Prognostic Model for Breast Cancer With Liver Metastasis

Background: Breast cancer with liver metastasis consists of a group of heterogeneous diseases, and survival time may be significantly different, ranging from a few months to several years. The present study aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic model for breast cancer with liver metastasis (BCLM).

Methods: In total, 1022 eligible patients from January 2007 to December 2018 were selected from Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (FUSCC) and were temporally in the training (n = 715) and validation (n = 307) set. According to regression coefficients found in the multivariate Cox regression analysis, the final results were transformed into the prognostic scores. On the basis of these scores, patients were finally classified into three risk groups, including low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. Then, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots were used to assess discrimination and calibration of this prognostic model in the validation set.

Results: Molecular subtypes, metastatic-free interval (MFI), extrahepatic metastasis, and liver function tests were identified as independent prognostic factors in the multivariate analysis. According to risk stratification, intermediate-risk (hazard ratio (HR) 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.74–2.58, P < 0.001) and high-risk groups (HR 6.94, 95% CI 5.25–9.16, P < 0.001) had significantly worse prognoses in comparison with the low-risk group regarding overall survival (OS) from the time of metastasis. The median OS in these three groups were 39.97, 21.03, and 8.80 months, respectively. These results were confirmed in the internal and external validation cohorts.

Conclusions: Based on molecular classification of tumors, routine laboratory tests, and other clinical information easily accessible in daily clinical practice, we developed a clinical tool for BCLM patients to predict their prognosis. Moreover, it may be useful for identifying the subgroup with unfavorable prognosis and individualization of treatment.

Validation of Nine Different Prognostic Grading Indexes for Radiosurgery of Brain Metastases in Breast Cancer Patients and Development of an All-Encompassing Prognostic Tool

Purpose: Several prognostic indexes for overall survival (OS) after radiotherapy of brain metastases in breast cancer patients exist but are mainly validated for whole-brain radiotherapy or not specifically for breast cancer patients. To date, no such index provides information beyond mere OS.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 95 breast cancer patients treated with stereotactic radiosurgery for 203 brain metastases. The Kaplan–Meier method with log-rank test was used to assess OS, local control (LC), distant cranial control (DCC), and extracranial control (EC). Cox regression was applied to detect prognostic outcome factors. A point scoring system was designed to stratify patients based on outcome. Nine established prognostic indexes were analyzed using the concordance index (c-index).

Results: Two out of nine analyzed prognostic indexes for OS showed a significant c-index, the breast graded prognostic assessment (bGPA; 0.631; 95% CI, 0.514–0.748; p = 0.037) and the modified bGPA (mod-bGPA; 0.662; 95% CI, 0.547–0.777; p = 0.010). Significant results from multivariate analysis (Karnofsky Performance Score, Her2/neu receptor status, extracranial control) were used to generate a new point system: the breast cancer stereotactic radiotherapy score (bSRS), which discriminated three significantly different prognostic groups, for LC, DCC, EC, and OS, respectively. However, the c-index was only significant for OS (0.689; 95% CI, 0.577–0.802; p = 0.003).

Conclusions: The new bSRS score was superior to the bGPA and mod-bGPA scores for prognosis of OS. The bSRS is easy to use and the first tool, which might also provide outcome assessment beyond mere OS. Future studies need to validate these findings.

[Short-term survival prediction scale in patients with metastatic brain disease caused by lung and breast cancer]

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prognostic scale suitable for distinguishing a group of poor prognosis with low survival prior to deciding on the appropriateness of radiotherapy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We analyzed only those patients with reliably known date of death after previous WBRT to determine objective criteria allowing WBRT abandonment. WBRT was carried out in 100 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (n=49) and breast cancer (n=51) and confirmed metastatic brain disease. All procedures have been conducted at the radiotherapy department of the Herzen Moscow Oncology Research Institute since January 2014. The prescribed dose of 3 Gy was ensured in all patients. Total focal dose of 30 Gy delivered in 10 fractions was achieved in 77 cases, 36 Gy delivered in 12 fractions - in 23 cases.

RESULTS

Death date was recorded in all patients (n=100) by January 2020. In the electronic SPSS database, death information was digitized for each patient up to 2-24 months, respectively. We identified eight the most significant factors by using of correlation analysis: primary tumor (controlled (0), uncontrolled (1)), number of brain metastases (<17 (0), ≥17 (1)), volume of brain metastases (<48 cm³ (0) ≥48 cm³ (1)), extracranial control (no metastases (0), metastases with positive dynamics after chemotherapy (1), continued growth after chemotherapy (2)), metastatic lesion of liver and lungs, respectively (no (0), yes (1)), functional status (≥ 70% (0), ≤ 60% (1)), carcinomatosis of the meninges (no (0), yes (1)). A simple summation of digital variables for factors 1-8 in each patient resulted a prognostic scale. Low risk of early mortality after WBRT was determined by 0-3 scores, intermediate risk - 4-5 scores, high risk - 6-9 scores. According to univariate analysis (log-rank 0.000), median survival rate varied in these groups: low risk - 15.5 months (11.4-19.7), intermediate risk - 5.26 months (4.6-6.0), high risk - only 1.35 months (0.9-1.8). Only 1 out of 15 high-risk patients (6-9 scores) survived 3 months (3.25 months). Inclusion of all eight factors into multivariate analysis revealed significant impact of only risk group on short-term survival. A 3-month survival in the high-risk group was 20.6 times lower (p=0.002) compared to the low and intermediate risk groups.

CONCLUSION

High significance of prognostic model and low informative value of each of the included factors emphasize the advisability of determining risk groups for short-term survival according to the suggested scale for each patient scheduled for WBRT. A simple assessment of separate predictors is pointless to decide whether WBRT is necessary.

Miliary breast cancer brain metastasis: a rare and aggressive form of central nervous system metastasis

Although breast cancer brain metastasis is an increasingly common occurrence, relatively little is known about miliary brain metastases, a rare subtype that presents unique diagnostic and management challenges. The present study from Bashour et al. proposes the first objective diagnostic imaging criteria, enabling improved future study.

Effects of Cancer Stem Cells in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer and Brain Metastasis: Challenges and Solutions

A higher propensity of developing brain metastasis exists in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Upon comparing the metastatic patterns of all breast cancer subtypes, patients with TNBC exhibited increased risks of the brain being the initial metastatic site, early brain metastasis development, and shortest brain metastasis-related survival. Notably, the development of brain metastasis differs from that at other sites owing to the brain-unique microvasculature (blood brain barrier (BBB)) and intracerebral microenvironment. Studies of brain metastases from TNBC have revealed the poorest treatment response, mostly because of the relatively backward strategies to target vast disease heterogeneity and poor brain efficacy. Moreover, TNBC is highly associated with the existence of cancer stem cells (CSCs), which contribute to circulating cancer cell survival before BBB extravasation, evasion from immune surveillance, and plasticity in adaptation to the brain-specific microenvironment. We summarized recent literature regarding molecules and pathways and reviewed the effects of CSC biology during the formation of brain metastasis in TNBC. Along with the concept of individualized cancer therapy, certain strategies, namely the patient-derived xenograft model to overcome the lack of treatment-relevant TNBC classification and techniques in BBB disruption to enhance brain efficacy has been proposed in the hope of achieving treatment success.

Beyond an Updated Graded Prognostic Assessment (Breast GPA): A Prognostic Index and Trends in Treatment and Survival in Breast Cancer Brain Metastases From 1985 to Today

PURPOSE

Brain metastases are a common sequelae of breast cancer. Survival varies widely based on diagnosis-specific prognostic factors (PF). We previously published a prognostic index (Graded Prognostic Assessment [GPA]) for patients with breast cancer with brain metastases (BCBM), based on cohort A (1985-2007, n = 642), then updated it, reporting the effect of tumor subtype in cohort B (1993-2010, n = 400). The purpose of this study is to update the Breast GPA with a larger contemporary cohort (C) and compare treatment and survival across the 3 cohorts.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A multi-institutional (19), multinational (3), retrospective database of 2473 patients with breast cancer with newly diagnosed brain metastases (BCBM) diagnosed from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2017, was created and compared with prior cohorts. Associations of PF and treatment with survival were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were compared with log-rank tests. PF were weighted and the Breast GPA was updated such that a GPA of 0 and 4.0 correlate with the worst and best prognoses, respectively.

RESULTS

Median survival (MS) for cohorts A, B, and C improved over time (from 11, to 14 to 16 months, respectively; P < .01), despite the subtype distribution becoming less favorable. PF significant for survival were tumor subtype, Karnofsky Performance Status, age, number of BCBMs, and extracranial metastases (all P < .01). MS for GPA 0 to 1.0, 1.5-2.0, 2.5-3.0, and 3.5-4.0 was 6, 13, 24, and 36 months, respectively. Between cohorts B and C, the proportion of human epidermal receptor 2 + subtype decreased from 31% to 18% (P < .01) and MS in this subtype increased from 18 to 25 months (P < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

MS has improved modestly but varies widely by diagnosis-specific PF. New PF are identified and incorporated into an updated Breast GPA (free online calculator available at brainmetgpa.com). The Breast GPA facilitates clinical decision-making and will be useful for stratification of future clinical trials. Furthermore, these data suggest human epidermal receptor 2-targeted therapies improve clinical outcomes in some patients with BCBM.

Management of brain metastases in breast cancer: a review of current practices and emerging treatments

PURPOSE

Breast cancer brain metastases (BCBM) are becoming an increasingly common diagnosis due to improved systemic control and more routine surveillance imaging. Treatment continues to require a multidisciplinary approach managing systemic and intracranial disease burden. Although, improvements have been made in the diagnosis and management of BCBM, brain metastasis patients continue to pose a challenge for practitioners.

METHODS

In this review, a group of medical oncologists, radiation oncologists, radiologists, breast surgeons, and neurosurgeons specializing in the treatment of breast cancer reviewed the available published literature and compiled a comprehensive review on the current state of BCBM.

RESULTS

We discuss the pathogenesis, epidemiology, diagnosis, treatment options (including systemic, surgical, and radiotherapy treatment modalities), and treatment response evaluation for BCBM. Furthermore, we discuss the ongoing prospective trials enrolling BCBM patients and their biologic rationale.

CONCLUSIONS

BCBM management is an increasing clinical concern. Multidisciplinary management combining the strengths of surgical, systemic, and radiation treatment modalities with prospective trials incorporating knowledge from the basic and translational sciences will ultimately lead to improved clinical outcomes for BCBM patients.

Treatment Patterns and Survival of Elderly Patients With Breast Cancer Brain Metastases

OBJECTIVES

The main objective of this study was to analyze treatment patterns of elderly patients with breast cancer brain metastases (BCBM), evaluate characteristics associated with treatment selection, and to analyze trends in overall survival (OS) over time.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We included women with BCBM reported to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Medicare Program from 1992 to 2012. Treatments were recorded from Medicare claims from the date of brain metastases diagnosis until 60 days after. Treatments included resection, radiation, and chemotherapy. Cochran-Armitage tests were used for analysis of treatment patterns. Multinomial logistic regression was applied to determine factors associated with treatment selection. Cox regression modelled OS trends within each treatment modality across time.

RESULTS

Among 5969 patients included, treatment rates increased from 50% in 1992 to 64.1% in 2012 (P<0.01). Therapy combining radiation, resection, and/or chemotherapy also increased from 8.8% to 18% over the same period (P<0.01). Combined therapy was significantly more likely among patients with extracranial metastases, those with estrogen-negative tumors, younger age at diagnosis, no comorbidities and more recently diagnosed brain metastases. OS improved over time for patients who received a combination of ≥2 treatments (hazard ratio, 0.89 per every 5 more recent diagnosis years; P<0.05). Older patients, those with extracranial metastases, or estrogen/progesterone-negative tumors showed significantly shorter OS.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed substantial changes in treatment patterns and OS over time in patients with BCBM. We identified several factors associated with specific treatment use. Patients who underwent a combination of ≥2 treatments experienced a significant improvement in OS over time.

Impact of breast cancer molecular subtypes on the incidence, kinetics and prognosis of central nervous system metastases in a large multicentre real-life cohort

BACKGROUND

Metastatic breast cancer (MBC) behaviour differs depending on hormone receptors (HR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2) statuses.

METHODS

The kinetics of central nervous system (CNS) metastases (CNS metastasis-free survival, CNSM-FS) and subsequent patient's prognosis (overall survival, OS) according to the molecular subtype were retrospectively assessed in 16703 MBC patients of the ESME nationwide multicentre MBC database (Kaplan-Meier method).

RESULTS

CNS metastases occurred in 4118 patients (24.6%) (7.2% at MBC diagnosis and 17.5% later during follow-up). Tumours were HER2-/HR+ (45.3%), HER2+/HR+ (14.5%), HER2+/HR- (14.9%) and triple negative (25.4%). Median age at CNS metastasis diagnosis was 58.1 years (range: 22.8-92.0). The median CNSM-FS was 10.8 months (95% CI: 16.5-17.9) among patients who developed CNS metastases. Molecular subtype was independently associated with CNSM-FS (HR = 3.45, 95% CI: 3.18-3.75, triple-negative and HER2-/HR+ tumours). After a 30-month follow-up, median OS after CNS metastasis diagnosis was 7.9 months (95% CI: 7.2-8.4). OS was independently associated with subtypes: median OS was 18.9 months (HR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.50-0.64) for HER2+/HR+ , 13.1 months (HR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.65-0.81) for HER2+/HR-, 4.4 months (HR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.42-1.69) for triple-negative and 7.1 months for HER2-/HR+ patients (p <0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Tumour molecular subtypes strongly impact incidence, kinetics and prognosis of CNS metastases in MBC patients.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03275311.

The effect of brain metastasis location on clinical outcomes: A review of the literature

It is common clinical practice to consider the location of a brain metastasis when making decisions regarding local therapies and, in some scenarios, estimating clinical outcomes, such as local disease control and patient survival. However, the location of a brain metastasis is not included in any validated prognostic nomogram and it is unclear if this is due to a lack of a relationship or a lack of support from published data. We performed a comprehensive review of the literature focusing on studies that have investigated a relationship between brain metastasis location and clinical outcomes, including patient survival. The vast majority of reports anatomically categorized brain metastases as supratentorial or infratentorial whereas some reports also considered other subdivisions of the brain, including different lobes or with particular areas defined as eloquent cortex. Results were variable across studies, with some finding a relationship between metastasis location and survival, but the majority finding either no relationship or a weak correlation that was not significant in the context of multivariable analysis. Here, we highlight the key findings and limitations of many studies, including how neurosurgical resection might influence the relative importance of metastasis location and in what ways future analyses may improve anatomical categorization and resection status.

The evolving role of trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) in HER2-positive breast cancer with brain metastases

Approximately 30-50% of advanced human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive breast cancer patients will develop brain metastases (BMs) during the disease course. Brain metastases may become a main limitation of life expectancy and a half of them will die from brain progression. Even in patients with early HER2-positive breast cancer managed with curative therapy, the risk of brain metastases is also increased. Central nervous system (CNS) may usually present as the first site of recurrence in HER2-positive breast cancer. Local treatments including radiotherapy and surgery are essential while new chemotherapy and biological agents appear to contribute a significant role in the future treatment field of CNS metastases. This article will review recent progresses in HER2-positive breast cancer with BM, with a focus on the efficacy of the HER2 targeted agents-trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1).

Breast cancer patients with brain metastases or leptomeningeal disease: 10-year results of a national cohort with validation of prognostic indexes

Development of brain metastasis (BM) and leptomeningeal (LM) disease in breast cancer (BC) patients indicates poor prognosis and impairs patients' quality of life. Prognostic survival scores for BM can help predict expected survival in order to choose the most appropriate treatment. The aim of our study was to analyze national data for BC patients treated with radiation therapy for BM/LM disease and validate the applicability of different survival prognostic scores. We retrospectively evaluated medical records of 423 BC patients with BM/LM disease receiving radiation therapy between April 2005 and December 2015. Patients were classified by BC Recursive Partitioning Analysis (B-RPA), Breast Graded Prognostic Assessment (Breast-GPA), Modified Breast Graded Prognostic Assessment (MB-GPA), and Simple Survival score for patients with BM from BC (SS-BM). Overall survival (OS) was calculated from the development of BM/LM disease to death or last follow-up date. After a median follow-up of 7.5 years, the median OS was 6.9 months (95% CI 5.5-7.8, range 0-146.4) and 1- and 2-year survival rates were 35% and 17%, respectively. Survival analysis showed significant differences in median OS regarding biologic subtypes (P < 0.0001), as follows: 3.2 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.5-3.9), 3.9 (95% CI 2.3-5.6), 7.1 (95% CI 4.3-9.8), 12.1 (95% CI 8.3-15.9), and 15.4 (95% CI 8.8-22.1) months for primary triple-negative BC (TNBC), Luminal B HER2-negative, Luminal A, HER2-enriched, and Luminal B HER2-positive tumors, respectively. Good Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), single metastasis, and absence of LM or extracranial disease all demonstrated better OS in univariate and multivariate analysis. All four employed prognostic indexes provided good prognostic value in predicting survival. SS-BM and MB-GPA showed the best discriminating ability (Concordance indexes C were 0.768 and 0.738, respectively). This study presents one of the largest single-institution series validating prognostic scores for BC patients with BM/LM. SS-BM and MB-GPA proved to be useful tools in the clinical decision-making process.

Development and validation of a new staging system for node-negative gastric cancer based on recursive partitioning analysis: An international multi-institutional study

BACKGROUND

Whether the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system is appropriate for patients with node-negative gastric cancer (GC) is still inconclusive. The modified staging system developed by recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) showed good prognostic performance in a variety of cancers. The application of RPA has not been reported in the prognostic prediction of GC.

METHODS

Node-negative GC patients who underwent radical resection at Fujian Medical University Union Hospital (n = 862) and Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (n = 311) with at least 5 years of follow-up were selected as the training set. RPA was used to develop a modified staging system. Patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (n = 1415) were selected as the validation set.

RESULTS

The 5-year overall survival (OS) rates of patients with 8th AJCC-TNM stage IA-IIIA in the training set were IA 95.2%, IB 87.1%, IIA 78.3%, IIB 75.8%, and IIIA 72.6%. Multivariate analysis (MVA) showed that larger tumor size, elder age, and deeper depth of invasion were independent predictors for OS in patients with node-negative GC (all P < 0.05). Patients were reclassified into RPA I, RPA II, RPA III, and RPA IV stages based on RPA; the 5-year OS rates were 96.1%, 87.2%, 81.0%, and 64.3%, respectively, with significant difference (P < 0.05). Two-step MVA showed that the RPA staging system was an independent predictor of OS (P < 0.05). Compared with the 8th AJCC-TNM staging system, the RPA staging system had a smaller AIC value (2544.9 vs 2576.2), higher χ2 score (104.2 vs 69.6) and higher Harrell's C-index (0.697 vs 0.669, P = 0.007). The similar results were found in the validation set.

CONCLUSIONS

A new prognostic predictive system based on RPA was successfully developed and validated, which may be suggested for staging node-negative GC in future.

Nomogram-Predicted Survival of Breast Cancer Brain Metastasis: a SEER-Based Population Study

OBJECTIVE

The prognosis of patients with breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM) was dismal and the prognoses varied according to different prognostic factors. In this study, we used the SEER (Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results) database to identify prognostic factors with the BCBMs.

METHODS

We identified and built a robust prognostic model and developed reliable nomograms to estimate the individualized overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) of patients with BCBM. A total of 789 patients with newly diagnosed BCBM were identified from the SEER database and randomly divided into training (n = 554) and testing (n = 235) cohorts. The log-rank tests and the Cox proportional hazards model were applied to evaluate the prognostic effects of multiple clinicopathologic variables on the survival of training cohorts. Significant prognostic factors were combined to build the nomograms that were evaluated using the concordance index and calibration plots for internal and external validations.

RESULTS

Two nomograms shared the common prognostic indicators including age, tumor subtype, chemotherapy, surgery, number of metastatic sites except the brain, and median household income. In the training cohort, the Harrell concordance index for the constructed nomogram to predict OS and BCSS was 0.668 and 0.676, respectively. The calibration plots were consistent between nomogram-predicted survival probability and actual survival probability. These results were reproducible when nomograms were applied to the testing cohort for external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Nomograms that predicted 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year OS and BCSS for patients with newly diagnosed BCBM with satisfactory performance were constructed to help physicians in evaluating the high risk of mortality in patients.