Determinants of Disparities in Early COVID-19 Job Losses

Income insecurity and mental health in pandemic times

This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on mental health by providing novel evidence of its interaction with labor market conditions and the long-term persistence of these effects. We run four waves of a large-scale representative survey in Spain between April 2020 and April 2022, and benchmark our data against a decade of pre-pandemic information. We document an increase in the share of individuals reporting depressive feelings from 16% prior to the pandemic to 46% in April 2020. We show that this effect is more pronounced for women, younger individuals and those with unstable incomes. We apply machine learning techniques, mediation analysis and event studies to document the role of the labor market as an important driver of these effects. Our results are crucial for the design of targeted policies that proof useful in overcoming the long lasting consequences of the pandemic.

ChatGPT and Vaccines: Can AI Chatbots Boost Awareness and Uptake?

The global COVID-19 pandemic has affected all spheres of human life, resulting in millions of deaths and overwhelming medical facilities. Moreover, the world has witnessed great financial hardship because of job losses resulting in economic havoc. Many sections of society have contributed in different ways to slow the spread of the virus and protect public health. For example, medical scientists are praised for their efforts to develop COVID-19 vaccines. Clinical trials have shown that the COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 infections. However, many people around the world have been hesitant to get vaccinated. Vaccine misconceptions have emerged and increased due to a combination of factors, including the availability of information on the Internet and the influence of celebrities and opinion leaders. In this context, we have analyzed ChatGPT responses to relevant queries on vaccine misconceptions. The positive responses and supportive opinions provided by the AI chatbot could be instrumental in shaping people's perceptions of vaccines and in encouraging users to get vaccinated and reduce misconceptions.

Association of the COVID-19 Pandemic With Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) Receipt Among Pregnant Individuals: United States, 2016-2022

Objectives. To evaluate the effect of COVID-19 on Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) receipt among pregnant individuals overall and by race/ethnicity. Methods. We measured changes in WIC receipt among Medicaid-covered births (n = 10 484 697) from the US National Center for Health Statistics Natality Files (2016-2022). Our interrupted time series logistic model included a continuous monthly variable, a binary post-COVID variable, and a continuous slope shift variable. We additionally fit separate models for each race/ethnicity relative to White individuals, using interaction terms between the time series variables and race/ethnicity. Results. We found decreases in WIC receipt (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.899; P < .001) from before COVID (66.6%) to after COVID (57.9%). There were larger post-COVID decreases for American Indian/Alaska Native (AOR = 0.850; P < .001), Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander (AOR = 0.877; P = .003), Black (AOR = 0.974; P < .001), and Hispanic (AOR = 0.972, P < .001) individuals relative to White individuals. Conclusions. The greater reductions in WIC receipt among minoritized individuals highlights a pathway through which the pandemic may have widened gaps in already disparate maternal and infant health. Public Health Implications. Continued efforts to increase WIC utilization are needed overall and among minoritized populations. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(S3):S240-S247. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307525).

Factors affecting patients who attempted suicide in the emergency department due to the prolonged pandemic of COVID-19

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the characteristics of patients who attempted suicide in the emergency department before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We compared data from patients in the emergency department following suicide attempts between January 2018 and December 2021. The patients were categorized into two groups: "pre-COVID-19" and "during COVID-19" pandemic.

RESULTS

The findings revealed an increasing trend of suicide attempts during the study period. Suicide attempts were reported at 1,107 before the COVID-19 pandemic and 1,356 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Patients who attempted suicide during the COVID-19 pandemic were younger (38.0±18.5 years vs. 40.7±18.4 years, P<0.01), had a smaller proportion of men (36% vs. 44%, P<0.01), and had fewer medical comorbidities (20.2% vs. 23.6%, P<0.05). The group during the COVID-19 pandemic reported better hygiene conditions (50.5% vs. 40.8%, P<0.01) and lower alcohol consumption (27.7% vs. 37.6%, P<0.01). Patients who attempted suicide during the COVID-19 pandemic had higher rates of use of psychiatric medications and previous suicide attempts. The most common reasons for the suicide attempt were unstable psychiatric disorders (38.8%), poor interpersonal relationships (20.5%), and economic difficulties (14.0%). Drug poisoning (44.1%) was the most common method of suicide attempts. Subgroup analysis with patients who attributed their suicide attempts to COVID-19 revealed a higher level of education (30.8%) and employment status (69.2%), with economic difficulties (61.6%) being the primary cause of suicide attempts.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that the prolonged duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects on social and economic factors have influenced suicide attempts.

The Relationship Between Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic-linked Job Losses and Health Care Access and Household Financial Health in Medicaid Expansion and Nonexpansion States

BACKGROUND

Unemployment associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was linked to financial insecurity and disruptions in access to health care.

OBJECTIVE

To explore whether expanded access to Medicaid mitigated the likelihood of health and non-health financial hardship associated with pandemic-linked job loss.

DESIGN

We estimate linear regression models comparing differences in the levels of outcomes attributable to pandemic-linked joblessness in Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states.

OBSERVATIONS

A total of 20,281 adults aged 19-64 were in the 2021 National Financial Capability Study.

MEASURES

Our key exposure was job loss, layoffs, and furloughs, attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. Outcomes under evaluation include indicators of health care access and household financial health.

RESULTS

Relative to persons reporting pandemic-linked unemployment in nonexpansion states, adults experiencing pandemic-linked job loss in expansion states were less likely to report as uninsured [-6.2 percentage points (PPs); 95% CI: -10.8, -1.6; P < 0.01], having unpaid medical bills (-4.3 PP; 95% CI: -8, -0.6; P < 0.05), having unmet medical needs due to cost (-5.3 PP; 95% CI: -10.1, -0.5; P < 0.05), and having calls from debt collection agencies (-6.9 PP; 95% CI: -10.6, -3.1; P < 0.01). Patterns consistent with Medicaid acting as a safety net for the adverse financial effects of job loss were more pronounced for middle-income households.

CONCLUSIONS

In economic downturns, such as the COVID-19 crisis, Medicaid can help insulate households from diminished health care access and financial distress associated with job loss.

Social connectedness in older Urban African-American adults during the COVID-19 pandemic: the roles of education and partnership

OBJECTIVE

This study examined education, partnership status, and the moderating role of the lockdown period on social connectedness during the COVID-19 pandemic in a sample of urban African-American older adults.

METHODS

Five hundred thirty-four African-American adults living in Detroit (91.0% female, Mage = 74.53) reported demographic information pre-pandemic and answered one social connectedness questionnaire between April and December 2020.

RESULTS

Participants interviewed after the lockdown (post-June 2020) reported more loneliness than those interviewed during the lockdown (April-June, 2020). Married/partnered participants reported less loneliness and social isolation. Loneliness did not differ between those with high education levels interviewed during the lockdown compared to post-lockdown. However, among individuals with low education levels, those interviewed after the lockdown reported more loneliness than those interviewed during the lockdown period.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest partnership status is associated with more social connectedness during the pandemic and education accentuates the effects of forced isolation related to loneliness among urban African-American older adults.

COVID-19 pandemic and financial market volatility: A quantile regression approach

The study examined the nexus between the COVID-19 pandemic and the market volatility of the global markets. For this purpose, a 30-country sample was used based on the most COVID-19 cases and deaths during the study period, from January 1 to December 12, 2020. We employed panel quantile regression and Panel Estimated Generalized Least Square (Panel-EGLS) frameworks to analyze the influence of COVID-19 on volatility in the whole sample and subsamples of emerging and developed markets. Our results of Panel-EGLS showed that the new cases and deaths positively impact volatility in the naïve and control models. The results from quantile regression also illustrated that new deaths and cases have positively influenced market volatility at the 50th and 75th quantiles. From the subsamples, our results demonstrate almost similar signs and significance for the impact of COVID-19 on market volatility in developed and emerging markets in both the naïve and control models. Both the results illustrate that any increase in COVID-19 positively caused volatility in the whole and subsamples at the mean and upper quantile levels. Our results necessitate coordinated global government actions to stabilize markets, mitigate volatility's impact by proactive policies in future health crises, and underscore a monetary policy for stability.

A longitudinal examination of the protective effect of resilience against anxiety among older adults with high COVID-related worry

This longitudinal study of community dwelling older adults (N = 453) examined consequences of COVID-related worries on changes in anxiety symptoms before relative to during the pandemic. We further evaluated if pre-COVID psychological resilience (PR) buffered the impact of COVID-related worry. Pre-COVID data were collected in September 2018. COVID-related worry and COVID anxiety symptoms were collected in October 2020 (Wave 2). Controlling for pre-COVID anxiety symptoms, we examined if COVID-related worries (e.g. I'm worried that I might die from COVID-19) were associated with increased anxiety symptoms, and whether pre-COVID PR moderated the association between COVID-related worries and prospective increases in anxiety symptoms. COVID-related worries were associated with increased anxiety symptoms (β = 0.005, p < .01), whereas pre-COVID PR was associated with a decrease in anxiety symptoms (β = -0.029, p < .05). PR moderated the association; COVID-related worries were associated with greater increases in anxiety symptoms among those with low pre-COVID PR (Model η2 = 0.35). Thus, the extent to which COVID-related worries influenced psychological health was dependent on pre-COVID levels of PR. We conclude the combined vulnerabilities of low pre-COVID PR and high COVID-related worries significantly increased the psychological consequences of COVID-19 for our sample of older adults.

Risk perception of coronavirus disease 2019 and career adaptability among college students: the mediating effect of hope and sense of mastery

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has not only caused widespread economic recession but also had a serious negative impact on the employment of college students. However, little is known about the relationship and mechanisms between the risk perception of COVID-19 and career adaptability. This study aimed to examine whether the risk perception of COVID-19 is associated with career adaptability directly and indirectly through hope and a sense of mastery in college students. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 594 Chinese college students aged 16 to 25, who completed assessments on risk perception of COVID-19, career adaptability, hope, and sense of mastery. The results showed that susceptibility was negatively associated with career confidence, control, and curiosity; moreover, susceptibility indirectly affected career adaptability (including concern, confidence, control, and curiosity) through the sense of mastery; uncontrollable indirectly affected career concern through hope; and uncontrollable indirectly affected career adaptability (including concern, confidence, control, and curiosity) through hope and the sense of mastery. The findings emphasize the role of hope and a sense of mastery in the career adaptability of college students and reveal the necessity of improving hope and a sense of mastery to promote college students' career development. "Implications and limitations are discussed".

The impacts of Covid-19 absences on workers

We show that Covid-19 illnesses and related work absences persistently reduce labor supply. Using an event study, we estimate that workers with week-long Covid-19 absences are 7 percentage points less likely to be in the labor force one year later compared to otherwise-similar workers who do not miss a week of work for health reasons. Our estimates suggest Covid-19 absences have reduced the U.S. labor force by approximately 500,000 people (0.2 percent of adults) and imply an average labor supply loss per Covid-19 absence equivalent to $9,000 in forgone earnings, about 90 percent of which reflects losses beyond the initial absence week.

Distributional impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and the CARES Act

Using data from the Current Population Survey, we investigate the distributional consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and the associated public policy response on labor earnings and unemployment benefits in the United States up until February 2021. We find that year-on-year changes in labor earnings for employed individuals were not atypical during the pandemic months, regardless of their initial position in the earnings distribution. The incidence of job loss, however, was substantially higher among low earners, leading to a dramatic increase in labor income inequality among the set of individuals who were employed prior to the onset of the pandemic. By providing very high replacement rates for individuals displaced from low-paying jobs, the initial public policy response was successful in reversing the regressive nature of the pandemic's impacts. We estimate, however, that recipiency rates for displaced low earners were lower than for higher earners. Moreover, from September 2020 onwards, when policy changes led to a decline in benefit levels, earnings changes became less progressive.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10888-022-09552-8.

The Local and Aggregated Impacts of Stay-at-Home Orders on State Level Unemployment Outcomes

Initial research on the effect of pandemic related stay-at-home orders (SAHO) on subsequent US state unemployment rates found inconclusive results regarding the magnitude of the effect. This research helps to clarify the debate, finding that while own-state SAHOs affected unemployment outcomes, it was actually the national level of SAHO implementation across the country that had an even greater impact. While these results do not offer direct guidance on when or whether SAHOs should have been issued in any given state, they do help to clarify the impact of SAHOs on various measures of US unemployment.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1057/s41302-023-00243-4.

Regular Cannabis Use During the First Year of the Pandemic: Studying Trajectories Rather Than Prevalence

INTRODUCTION

Cannabis use in the U.S. rose early in the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is unclear whether that rise was temporary or permanent. This study estimated the nature and sociodemographic correlates of U.S. adult subpopulations regularly using cannabis by examining weekly trajectories of use during the first year of the pandemic.

METHODS

Data came from the Understanding America Study, a nationally representative panel of U.S. adults (N=8,397; March 10, 2020-March 29, 2021). A growth mixture model was deployed to identify subgroups with similar regular cannabis use. Sociodemographic correlates of subgroups were examined using multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

Four cannabis-use groups were identified. Most participants did not regularly use cannabis (no regular use; 81.7%). The other groups increased regular use until April 2020 but then diverged. Some (7.1%) decreased thereafter, whereas others (3.4%) maintained their elevated use until October 26, 2020 before decreasing. The last group (7.7%) sustained their elevated use throughout. Individuals aged between 18 and 39 years, unmarried, living in poverty, without a college degree, and with longer unemployment or underemployment spells had higher odds of being in the other groups with more weekly use than in the no-regular-use group.

CONCLUSIONS

The analyses revealed population subgroups with prolonged regular cannabis use and a disproportionate concentration of socioeconomically vulnerable members of society in these subgroups. These findings elucidate important heterogeneity in the subpopulations using cannabis, highlighting the urgent need to tailor public health programs for subgroups that may have unique service needs.

Multidimensional Deprivation from Labor Market Opportunities in Armenia: Evidence from 2018 and 2020

This paper explores the multidimensional deprivation from labor market opportunities in Armenia by constructing a Quality of Employment measure. Using Labor Force Survey datasets for the years 2018 and 2020, we conduct a comparative analysis for a group of job-separated individuals. The identified dimensions of deprivation from labor market opportunities prior to and after the onset of COVID-19 are reasons for separating from a job, reasons for not looking for a job, and main obstacles in finding a job. These dimensions enable to study employee-level (supply factors) and job-related characteristics (demand factors). Our study shows that demand factors are the primary drivers of amplified deprivation in times of the pandemic. Also, we observe that the gender gap in the labor market deprivation has been increased during the pandemic, further amplified for married women. Interestingly, gender gap in deprivation is invariant to the occupational composition.

Satisfaction with pandemic management and compliance with public health measures: Evidence from a German household survey on the COVID-19 crisis

We study how satisfaction with government efforts to respond to the COVID-19 crisis affects compliance with pandemic mitigation measures. Using a novel longitudinal household survey for Germany, we overcome the identification and endogeneity challenges involved in estimating individual compliance by using an instrumental variable approach that exploits exogenous variation in two indicators measured before the crisis: political party preferences and the mode of information measured by the frequency of using social media and reading newspapers. We find that a one unit increase in subjective satisfaction (on the 0-10 scale) improves protective behavior by 2-4 percentage points. Satisfaction with the government's COVID-19 management is lower among individuals with right-wing partisan preferences and among individuals who use only social media as an information source. Overall, our results indicate that the effectiveness of uniform policy measures in various domains, such as the health system, social security or taxation, especially during pandemic crises, cannot be fully evaluated without taking individual preferences for collective action into account.

Parents' work arrangements and gendered time use during the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective

This study uses time diaries to examine how parents' work arrangements shaped their time use at home and work during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background

The pandemic transformed home and work life for parents, disrupting employment and childcare. The shift to work from home offered more flexibility to manage increased care burdens, but the lack of separation between work and family also likely contributed to more challenging work environments, especially among mothers.

Method

This study relies on the 2017-2020 American Time Use Survey and matching to estimate changes in time use among parents working from home and on site in the pandemic relative to comparable parents prior to the pandemic.

Results

Data showed no overall increases in primary childcare time among working parents. Parents working from home during the pandemic, however, spent more time in the presence of children and supervising children, much in combination with paid work. Mothers working from home increased their supervisory parenting while working for pay more than fathers, and they more often changed their paid work schedules. The study's main findings were robust to gendered unemployment and labor force exits.

Conclusion

Parents, especially mothers, working from home responded to childcare demands through multitasking and schedule changes with potential negative effects on work quality and stress. Parents working on site during the pandemic experienced smaller changes in time use.

Implications

The pandemic has generated new inequalities between those with and without the flexibility to work from home, and exacerbated gender inequalities among those working from home.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities: Essential Workers, Mental Health, and the Coronavirus Pandemic

Evidence is emerging of the pandemic disproportionately impacting communities of color. This study investigates mental health distress among essential workers during the coronavirus pandemic across race and ethnicity. We evaluate individual responses to the patient health questionnaire and general anxiety disorder questionnaire using a unique, nationally representative data set. Our findings suggest that essential healthcare workers reported the highest rates of mental health distress at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. However, when evaluated across race and ethnicity, we find that Black essential healthcare workers disproportionately report symptoms of anxiety; while, Hispanic essential healthcare workers disproportionately report symptoms of depression. Additionally, we find that being a Black or Hispanic essential nonhealthcare worker is associated with higher levels of distress related to anxiety and depression. These findings highlight the additional dimensions to which Black and Hispanic Americans may be disproportionately affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Furthermore, it calls into question how the essential worker classification, compounded by US unemployment policies, is potentially amplifying the mental health distress experienced by workers.

Insecure yet Resourceful: Psychological Capital Mitigates the Negative Effects of Employees' Career Insecurity on Their Career Satisfaction

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased employee career concerns (i.e., insecurity), and many people face difficulties with their current jobs. In addition, employees have struggled with their health due to COVID-19. Based on the psychological capital (PsyCap) and the conservation of resource theories, we suggest that personal resources, such as resilience, can mitigate the adverse effects of employee career insecurity on their career-related outcomes, such as career satisfaction, as well as on their health. In a German-speaking sample (N = 185) and a two-wave design, we investigated the role of employees' career insecurity on their career satisfaction. We employed PsyCap as a moderator in these relationships. Results showed a negative relationship between career insecurity and career satisfaction. In addition, moderation analyses revealed that PsyCap significantly moderates the effects of career insecurity on employee career satisfaction. Specifically, for high PsyCap the effect of career insecurity on employee career satisfaction does not hold significant, while it does for low PsyCap, showing that PsyCap can mitigate the negative effects of career insecurity on employee career satisfaction. With a robust personal construct in career research, our study contributes to this field by investigating the role of PsyCap for employee careers, especially in a crisis context (i.e., COVID-19). We discuss implications for employees and organizations.

Unequal effects of the COVID-19 epidemic on employment: Differences by immigrant status and race/ethnicity

The COVID-19 epidemic resulted in a dramatic contraction in employment in the U.S., but the effects of this contraction have been unevenly distributed. We examine differences in employment among foreign- and native-born workers by race/ethnicity during the course of the epidemic. We test individual fixed-effects models based on data from the monthly CPS panel from January 2020 to December 2021 adjusting for seasonality. Immigrant men and women experienced greater declines in employment than non-immigrants of the same race/ethnicity when both compared to native-born Whites, but their disadvantage were limited to the initial months of the epidemic. Ethnoracial and immigrant status disparities were substantially reduced by the fall of 2020, except for Hispanic immigrant men and women, who still experienced substantial employment gaps with their native-born White counterparts. Differences in family characteristics account for Hispanic immigrant women’s lower employment rates during the epidemic but do not appear to account for differences between Black and Asian women and native-born Whites. Observed disparities in employment by race/ethnicity and immigrant status cannot be fully explained by differences in education, the concentration of minority and immigrant workers in industries and occupations that suffered steeper employment declines, or regional differences in the intensity of the epidemic.

Food Insecurity and COVID-19 Food-Related Perceptions, Practices, and Problems: A 3-State Descriptive Study

OBJECTIVE

To compare food insecurity (FI) risk and food-related COVID-19 infection risk perceptions, practices, and problems (3P) in Washington (WA), New York (NY), and Louisiana (LA).

METHODS

Data from the RAPID Multi-Wave Risk Perception Study was collected via online surveys between May 19 to July 14, 2020 (N = 1260). Multivariable - adjusted logistic and ordinal regressions were performed for odds of FI risk and 3P during these early months of the pandemic.

RESULTS

The determinants of FI risk in all states included income, age, and employment. Some determinants were state-specific: households with members at substantial risk for COVID-19 (WA and NY), ethnicity (NY), education, and relationship status (LA). The odds of FI risk were higher among those who perceived higher likelihood of COVID-19 infection via in-store shopping (OR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.70) and improperly cooked food (OR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.46, 2.41). FI risk was associated with higher odds of problems related to food affordability (OR = 10.66, 95% CI: 7.87, 14.44), preference (OR = 2.51, 95% CI: 1.86, 3.39), sufficiency (OR = 2.63, 95% CI: 1.96, 3.54), food sources (OR = 7.68, 95% CI: 5.73, 10.31), food storage capacity (OR = 0.48, 95% CI: 0.36, 0.66), and knowing where to find help in obtaining food (OR= 7.68, 95% CI: 5.73, 10.31); most of which did not differ by state. No association was found between food insecurity risk and food-related practices.

CONCLUSION

Better food preparedness is needed to reduce FI risk during pandemics in specific groups in WA, NY, and LA. Specifically, food affordability, sufficiency, and storage, as well as sources, and increasing knowledge on food programs are limitations that need to be addressed for emergency situations.

Exploring mental health disability gaps in the labour market: the UK experience during COVID-19

People with long-term mental health problems that affect their daily activities are a growing proportion of the UK working population and they have a particularly low employment rate. We analyse gaps in labour market outcomes between mental health disabled and non-disabled people during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. We also decompose the outcome gaps in order to explore the relative importance of different factors in explaining these gaps. Our results suggest that the employment effects of the pandemic for mental health disabled people may have been temporary. However, they were more likely to be away from work and/or working reduced hours than people without a disability. Workers with mental health disability were over-represented in part-time work and in caring, leisure and other service occupations, which were disproportionately affected by COVID-19 and the economic response. This is important new evidence on the contribution of segmentation and segregation in explaining the labour market position of people with mental health disability. The longer term effects of the pandemic were still not apparent at the end of our analysis period (2021:Q3), but the concentration of disabled workers in cyclically sensitive sectors and part-time work means that they will always be particularly vulnerable to economic downturns.

Survey Non-Response in COVID-19 Times: The Case of the Labour Force Survey

During the COVID-19 pandemic, labour-force survey non-response rates have surged in many countries. We show that in the case of the Canadian Labour Force Survey (LFS), the bulk of this increase is due to the suspension of in-person interviews following the adoption of telework within Federal agencies, including Statistics Canada. Individuals with vulnerabilities to the COVID-19 economic shock have been harder to reach and have been gradually less and less represented in the LFS during the pandemic. We present evidence suggesting that the decline in employment and labour-force participation have been underestimated over the March-July 2020 period. We argue that these non-response issues are moderate when analyzing aggregate outcomes, but that researchers should exert caution when gauging the robustness of estimates for subgroups. We discuss practical implications for research based on the LFS, such as the consequences for panels and the choice of public-use versus master files of the LFS.

Job Motivation, Burnout and Turnover Intention during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Are There Differences between Female and Male Workers?

The working conditions during COVID-19 highlight the relevance of workers and their occupational health and well-being. The pandemic has caused adverse effects on workers and sharpened social and economic problems, such as a gender gap. In this study, with a multisector sample of 1044 Ecuadorian workers, we present a gender analysis where we evaluate how burnout can mediate the relationship between motivation and workers’ intention to leave their jobs in the COVID-19 context. To test the proposed hypothesis, structural equation model (SEM) was used. In the proposed conceptual model, turnover intention was considered as the dependent variable, the two dimensions of motivation (intrinsic and extrinsic) were the independent variables and burnout was tested as a mediating variable. Consistent with pre-COVID-19 research, our findings confirm the incidence of job motivation on burnout and turnover intention. Additionally, through Sobel’s criteria, we determine that burnout has a mediating effect between job motivation and turnover intention. In terms of gender, we find different results for female and male workers through critical ratios. Our study indicates that female and male workers’ burnout and turnover intentions levels are different when intrinsic motivation is present. In contrast to pre-COVID-19 studies that indicated no gender differences on these variables, we associate these results to gender roles in lockdown conditions during the pandemic.

Do immigrants shield the locals? Exposure to COVID-related risks in the European Union

This article investigates the relationship between immigration and the exposure of native workers to health and labor-market risks arising from the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Using various measures of occupational risks based on European Union labor force survey data, we find that immigrant workers, especially those from lower-income member countries in Eastern Europe or from outside the EU, face greater exposure than their native-born peers to both income and health-shocks related to COVID-19. We also show that native workers living in regions with a higher concentration of immigrants are less exposed to some of the income and health risks associated with the pandemic. To assess whether this relationship is causal, we use a Bartik-type shift-share instrument to control for potential bias and unobservable factors that would lead migrants to self-select into more vulnerable occupations across regions. The results show that the presence of immigrant workers has a causal effect in reducing the exposure of native workers to various risks by enabling the native-born workers to move into jobs that could be undertaken from the safety of their homes or with lower face-to-face interactions. The effects on the native-born population are more pronounced for high-skilled workers than for low-skilled workers, and for women than for men. We do not find significant effect of immigration on wages and employment-indicating that the effects are mostly driven by a reallocation of natives from less safe jobs to safer jobs.

The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on labor markets: People's movement and non-pharmaceutical interventions

The paper investigates the heterogeneous effect of a policy-induced decline in people's mobility on the Japanese labor market outcome during the early COVID-19 period. Regressing individual-level labor market outcomes on prefecture-level mobility changes using policy stringency index as an instrument, our two-stage least squares estimator presents the following findings. First, the number of people absent from work increased for all groups of individuals, but the magnitude was greater for workers with non-regular employment status, low-educated people, females especially with children, and those aged 31 to 45 years. Second, while work hours decreased for most groups, the magnitude was especially greater for business owners without employees and those aged 31 to 45. Third, the negative effect on unemployment was statistically significant for older males who worked as regular workers in the previous year. The impact was particularly considerable for those aged 60 and 65, thus suggesting that they lost their re-employment opportunity due to COVID-19. Fourth, all these adverse effects were greater for people working in service and sales occupations. Fifth, a counterfactual experiment of more stringent policies indicates that while an average worker would lose JPY 3857 in weekly earnings by shortening their work hours, the weekly loss for those aged 31 to 45 years and working in service and sales occupations would be about JPY 13,842.

Earnings shocks and stabilization during COVID-19

This paper documents the magnitude and distribution of U.S. earnings changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and how fiscal relief offset lost earnings. We build panels from administrative tax data to measure annual earnings changes. The frequency of earnings declines during the pandemic were similar to the Great Recession, but the distribution was different. In 2020, workers starting in the bottom half of the distribution were more likely to experience an earnings decline of at least 10 percent. While most workers experiencing large annual earnings declines do not receive unemployment insurance, over half of beneficiaries were made whole in 2020, as unemployment insurance replaced a median of 105 percent of their annual earnings declines. After incorporating unemployment insurance, the likelihood of large earnings declines among low-earning workers was not only smaller than during the Great Recession, but also smaller than in 2019.

Working from home and the explosion of enduring divides: income, employment and safety risks

Why are there so many non-teleworkable occupations? Is teleworking only a matter of ICT usage or does it also reflect the division of labour and the underlying hierarchical layers inside organizations? What does it happen to those workers not able to telework in terms of socio-economic risks, and how does the gender dimension interact with risk stratification? Hereby, we intend to shed light on these questions using a detailed integrated dataset at individual and occupational level (Indagine Campionaria delle Professioni, Indagine delle Forze di Lavoro and Inail archive) which provides information on different nature of risks (income, employment and safety). Our results entail that, first, class attributes, intended as execution of tasks, degrees of autonomy in doing the job, layers of the occupational categories, strongly influence the chance of working from home; second, those individuals who are not able to perform their work remotely are more exposed to transition to unemployment, to earn low wages, and to safety and health risks; third, being woman and employed with a temporary contract significantly amplify risk stratification.

Assessing the Link Between Survey Interview Method and Survey Outcomes: Evidence from the CPS and the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected data collection for the nation's primary source of household-level labor force data, the Current Population Survey (CPS). In the first four months of the pandemic period (March-June 2020) the average month-over-month nonresponse rate increased by 58 percent, while the size of newly entering cohorts declined by 37 percent relative to the prior 15 months. Together, these factors reduced the overall sample size of the CPS by around 16 percent. We hypothesize that these changes, and significant associated shifts in the demographic composition of the sample, were caused by the cessation of in-person interviewing. Geographic variation in nonresponse over this period does not appear related to variation in COVID case rates across metro areas or states. Using this change in interview method as a natural experiment, we compare labor market outcomes of those who entered the survey pre- and post-COVID pandemic and find that the change in how individuals were recruited into the survey affected estimates of unemployment and labor force participation. In an exercise generating a counterfactual group of "missing" respondents, we estimate that, between April and August of 2020, the average unemployment rate was 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points higher, and the labor force participation rate was 0.4 to 0.8 percentage points lower than estimates using the actual sample of respondents. One implication of these results is that web-based surveys, which are increasingly relied on in empirical labor market studies, may fail to reach important subpopulations of the labor market and that reweighting is unlikely to address the selection on outcomes we document.

Lives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic

We evaluate the global welfare consequences of increases in mortality and poverty generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Increases in mortality are measured in terms of the number of years of life lost (LY) to the pandemic. Additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 and two different scenarios for its distributional characteristics. Using years of life as a welfare metric yields a single parameter that captures the underlying trade-off between lives and livelihoods: how many PYs have the same welfare cost as one LY. Taking an agnostic view of this parameter, we compare estimates of LYs and PYs across countries for different scenarios. Three main findings arise. First, we estimate that, as of early June 2020, the pandemic (and the observed private and policy responses) had generated at least 68 million additional poverty years and 4.3 million years of life lost across 150 countries. The ratio of PYs to LYs is very large in most countries, suggesting that the poverty consequences of the crisis are of paramount importance. Second, this ratio declines systematically with GDP per capita: poverty accounts for a much greater share of the welfare costs in poorer countries. Finally, a comparison of these baseline results with mortality estimates in a counterfactual "herd immunity" scenario suggests that welfare losses would be greater in the latter in most countries.

The distribution of COVID-19-related risks

ABSTRACT

We document two COVID-19-related risks, viral risk and employment risk, and their distributions across the Canadian population. The measurement of viral risk is based on the VSE COVID-19 Risk/Reward Assessment Tool, created to assist policy-makers in determining the impacts of pandemic-related economic shutdowns and re-openings. Women are more concentrated in high-viral-transmission-risk occupations, which is the source of their greater employment loss over the first part of the pandemic. They were also less likely to maintain contact with their former employers, reducing employment recovery rates. Low-educated workers face the same viral risk rates as high-educated workers but much higher employment losses. This is largely due to their lower likelihood of switching to working from home. For both women and the low-educated, existing inequities in their occupational distributions and living situations have resulted in them bearing a disproportionate amount of the risk emerging from the pandemic. Assortative matching in couples has tended to exacerbate risk inequities.

RÉSUMÉ

Dans cet article, nous documentons deux risques associés à la COVID-19, soit le risque de contracter le virus étant donné l'emploi occupé et le risque de perdre son emploi dans le contexte de la pandémie. La répartition de ces risques dans la population canadienne est aussi documentée. La mesure du risque viral est basée sur l'outil de visualisation des risques par profession et industrie liés à la COVID-19 de la VSE, créée pour aider les décideurs à déterminer les impacts des fermetures et réouvertures des différents secteurs de l'économie durant la pandémie. On note que les femmes sont plus présentes dans les professions à haut risque viral, ce qui explique en partie leur plus grande perte d'emploi durant la première partie de la pandémie. Durant la pandémie, elles étaient également moins susceptibles de demeurer en contact avec leurs anciens employeurs, ce qui a affecté négativement leur taux de retour au travail. Le risque viral était similaire pour les travailleurs peu éduqués et les travailleurs hautement qualifiés, mais les pertes d'emplois ont été beaucoup plus importantes pour les travailleurs peu éduqués. Cette différence peut être attribuable à leur plus faible capacité à effectuer leur travail à domicile étant donné la nature de leur emploi. Tant pour les femmes que pour les personnes peu éduquées, les inégalités existantes dans leurs conditions de vie et leur répartition professionnelle les ont conduites à subir une part plus élevée du risque lié à la pandémie. Enfin, l'appariement assortatif des couples selon les professions a eu tendance à exacerber les inégalités face aux risques.

Understanding socioeconomic disparities in travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

We document the magnitudes of and mechanisms behind socioeconomic differences in travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus on King County, Washington, one of the first places in North America where COVID-19 was detected. We leverage novel and rich administrative and survey data on travel volumes, modes, and preferences for different demographic groups. Large average declines in travel and public transit use due to the pandemic and related policy responses mask substantial heterogeneity across socioeconomic groups. Travel declined considerably less among less-educated and lower-income individuals, even after accounting for mode substitution and variation across neighborhoods in the impacts of public transit service reductions. As policy became less restrictive and travel increased, the size of the socioeconomic gap in travel behavior remained stable, and remote work capabilities became increasingly important in explaining this gap. Our results imply that disparities in travel behavior across socioeconomic groups may become an enduring feature of the urban landscape.

Understanding socioeconomic disparities in travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

We document the magnitudes of and mechanisms behind socioeconomic differences in travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus on King County, Washington, one of the first places in North America where COVID-19 was detected. We leverage novel and rich administrative and survey data on travel volumes, modes, and preferences for different demographic groups. Large average declines in travel and public transit use due to the pandemic and related policy responses mask substantial heterogeneity across socioeconomic groups. Travel declined considerably less among less-educated and lower-income individuals, even after accounting for mode substitution and variation across neighborhoods in the impacts of public transit service reductions. As policy became less restrictive and travel increased, the size of the socioeconomic gap in travel behavior remained stable, and remote work capabilities became increasingly important in explaining this gap. Our results imply that disparities in travel behavior across socioeconomic groups may become an enduring feature of the urban landscape.

Who are the essential and frontline workers?

Identifying essential and frontline workers and understanding their characteristics is useful for policymakers and researchers in targeting social insurance and safety net policies in response to the COVID-19 crisis and allocating scarce resources like personal protective equipment (PPE) and vaccines. We develop a working definition and provide data on the demographic and labor market composition of these workers. We first apply the official industry guidelines issued by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in March 2020 to microdata from the 2018 and 2019 American Community Survey to identify essential workers regardless of actual operation status of their industry. We then use the feasibility of work from home in the worker's occupation group (Dingel and Neiman 2020) to identify those most likely to be frontline workers who worked in-person early in the COVID-19 crisis in March/April 2020. In a third step, we exclude industries that were shut down or running under limited demand at that time (Vavra 2020). We find that the broader group of essential workers comprises a large share of the labor force and tends to mirror its demographic and labor market characteristics. In contrast, the narrower category of frontline workers is, on average, less educated, has lower wages, and has a higher representation of men, disadvantaged minorities, especially Hispanics, and immigrants. These results hold even when excluding industries that were shut down or operating at a limited level. Results for essential and frontline workers are similar when accounting for changes in the federal guidelines over time by using the December 2020 guidelines which include a few additional groups of workers, including the education sector.

The impact of labour market disruptions and transport choice on the environment during COVID-19

Since late 2019, COVID-19 has devastated the global economy, with indirect implications for the environment. As governments' prioritized health and implemented measures such as the closure of non-essential businesses and social distancing, many workers have lost their jobs, been furloughed, or started working from home. Consequently, the world of work has drastically transformed and this period is likely to have major implications for mobility, transportation and the environment. This paper estimates the potential for people to engage in remote work and social distancing using O*NET data and Irish Census data and calculates the potential emission savings, by commuter type from a switch to remote working and occupational social distancing. The results show that while those who commute by car have a relatively high potential for remote work, they are less likely to be able to engage in social distancing in their workplace. While this may be negative for employment prospects in the short run, our analysis indicates that this pattern has the potential for positive environmental implications in the short and long run.

The distributional impact of recessions: The global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic recession

Using U.S. Current Population Survey data, this paper compares the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis and those of Global Financial Crisis in terms of (i) worker characteristics, (ii) job characteristics-"social" (where individuals interact to consume goods), "teleworkable" (where individuals have the option of working at home), and "essential" jobs (which were not subject to government mandated shutdowns during the recent recession), and (iii) wage distributions. We find that young and less educated workers have always been affected more in recessions, while women and Hispanics were more severely affected during the Pandemic Recession. Surprisingly, teleworkable, social and essential jobs have been historically less cyclical. This historical acyclicality of teleworkable occupations is attributable to its higher share of skilled workers. Unlike during the Global Financial Crisis, however, employment in social industries fell more whereas employment in teleworkable and essential jobs fell less during the Pandemic Crisis. During both recessions, workers at low-income earnings have suffered more than top-income earners, suggesting a significant distributional impact of the two recessions. Lastly, a large share of unemployed persons was on temporary layoff during the COVID-19 recession, unlike the Global Financial Crisis.

COVID-19 and the decline in Asian American employment

The unemployment rate has sharply increased as a result of the lockdown associated with the spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of the lockdown is more conspicuous among the less-educated workers than the highly-educated workers. Because Asian Americans are more likely to have a bachelor or higher degree than any other racial group, they are expected to be relatively immune to the drop in employment unless the detrimental impact of the lockdown is severer for Asian Americans. Exploiting the panel aspect of the Current Population Survey - Merged Outgoing Rotation Group, we examine the changes in At-work status before and after the lockdown and between the lockdown and months of the reopening. The empirical results uncover that Asian Americans are more negatively affected by the lockdown than any other racial group, net of education, immigration status, and other covariates. Surprisingly, the negative impact of the lockdown is entirely concentrated on less-educated Asian Americans. Regardless of gender, less-educated Asian Americans are substantially more likely to lose employment than equally educated Whites and are not more likely to regain employment during the reopening months. Other less-educated racial minorities do not experience more reduction in At-work status than Whites, net of covariates. Highly-educated Asian Americans' employment is equally affected by the lockdown with equally educated Whites.

Trade-off between job losses and the spread of COVID-19 in Japan

This paper quantitatively analyzes the trade-off between job losses and the spread of COVID-19 in Japan. We derive an empirical specification from the social planner's resource constraint under the susceptible, infected, recovered, and deaths (SIRD) model and estimate how job losses and the case growth rate are related to people's mobility using the Japanese prefecture-level panel data on confirmed cases, involuntary job losses, people's mobility, and teleworkability. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, we find that a decrease in mobility driven by containment policies is associated with an increase in involuntary job separations, but the high teleworkability mitigates the negative effect of decreased mobility on job losses. Second, estimating how the case growth is related to people's mobility and past cases, we find that the case growth rate is positively related to an increase in people's mobility but negatively associated with past confirmed cases. Third, using these estimates, we provide a quantitative analysis of the trade-off between job losses and the number of confirmed cases. Taking Tokyo in July 2020 as a benchmark, we find that the cost of saving 1 job per month is 2.3 more confirmed cases per month in the short run of 1 month. When we consider a trade-off for 3 months from July to September of 2020, protecting 1 job per month requires 6.6 more confirmed cases per month. Therefore, the trade-off becomes worse substantially in the longer run of 3 months, reflecting the exponential case growth when the people's mobility is high.