Consumption Smoothing and Frequency of Benefit Payments of Cash Transfer Programs

The effects of social pensions on nutrition-related health outcomes of the poor: Quasi-experimental evidence from Peru

This paper exploits the discontinuity around a welfare index of eligibility to assess the impact of Peru's social pension program Pension 65 on nutrition-related health outcomes among elderly poor individuals. Overall, we find evidence of how a relatively inexpensive program can produce improvements in anemia and nutrition-related mortality risk markers. The effects appear to be driven by plausible underlying mechanisms, including via improved nutritional quality as well as greater food expenditures and healthcare utilization. These positive effects are only modestly countered by tentative signs of an increased obesity risk among women in the short term (<2 years), but not beyond this term. As the program evolves further, policymakers need to confront the challenge of continuing to ensure the health benefits in terms of reducing nutritional deficits while avoiding potential undesirable side effects in terms of over-nutrition in Peru. The findings may serve to highlight the wider benefits of similar pension policies for the poor also in other middle income countries, well beyond the immediate economic welfare effects that the policies have primarily been designed for.

NonContributory Pensions, Functional Limitations, and Unpaid Family Care for Older Adults in Mexico

Objectives: We explore the effects of non-contributory pensions on functional limitations and receipt of unpaid family care by gender and frequency of pension payment. Methods: We employ a difference-in-differences estimator to identify the causal effects of non-contributory pension programs disbursed monthly or every two months for adults 70 years and older in the state of Yucatan, Mexico. Results:The monthly payment program led to lower difficulties in functional limitations and less receipt of help from family or relatives for older men and women as compared to the bimonthly program. We found a larger decline on receipt of family care for older women than for men. Discussion:Our results suggest that more frequent pension payments may have greater health benefits for recipients. They also highlight the need for greater understanding of policies that prevent or delay functional limitations and that could indirectly alleviate unpaid caregiver burden.

Unconditional cash transfers for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities: effect on use of health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Unconditional cash transfers (UCTs; provided without obligation) for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities (e.g. orphanhood, old age, or HIV infection) are a social protection intervention addressing a key social determinant of health (income) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The relative effectiveness of UCTs compared with conditional cash transfers (CCTs; provided only if recipients follow prescribed behaviours, e.g. use a health service or attend school) is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of UCTs on health services use and health outcomes in children and adults in LMICs. Secondary objectives are to assess the effects of UCTs on social determinants of health and healthcare expenditure, and to compare the effects of UCTs versus CCTs.

SEARCH METHODS

For this update, we searched 15 electronic academic databases, including CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EconLit, in September 2021. We also searched four electronic grey literature databases, websites of key organisations and reference lists of previous systematic reviews, key journals and included study records.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included both parallel-group and cluster-randomised controlled trials (C-RCTs), quasi-RCTs, cohort studies, controlled before-and-after studies (CBAs), and interrupted time series studies of UCT interventions in children (0 to 17 years) and adults (≥ 18 years) in LMICs. Comparison groups received either no UCT, a smaller UCT or a CCT. Our primary outcomes were any health services use or health outcome.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened potentially relevant records for inclusion, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. We obtained missing data from study authors if feasible. For C-RCTs, we generally calculated risk ratios for dichotomous outcomes from crude frequency measures in approximately correct analyses. Meta-analyses applied the inverse variance or Mantel-Haenszel method using a random-effects model. Where meta-analysis was impossible, we synthesised results using vote counting based on effect direction. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 34 studies (25 studies of 20 C-RCTs, six CBAs, and three cohort studies) involving 1,140,385 participants (45,538 children, 1,094,847 adults) and 50,095 households in Africa, the Americas and South-East Asia in our meta-analyses and narrative syntheses. These analysed 29 independent data sets. The 24 UCTs identified, including one basic universal income intervention, were pilot or established government programmes or research experiments. The cash value was equivalent to 1.3% to 81.9% of the annualised gross domestic product per capita. All studies compared a UCT with no UCT; three studies also compared a UCT with a CCT. Most studies carried an overall high risk of bias (i.e. often selection or performance bias, or both). Most studies were funded by national governments or international organisations, or both. Throughout the review, we use the words 'probably' to indicate moderate-certainty evidence, 'may/maybe' for low-certainty evidence, and 'uncertain' for very low-certainty evidence. Health services use We assumed greater use of any health services to be beneficial. UCTs may not have impacted the likelihood of having used any health service in the previous 1 to 12 months, when participants were followed up between 12 and 24 months into the intervention (risk ratio (RR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.09; I² = 2%; 5 C-RCTs, 4972 participants; low-certainty evidence). Health outcomes At one to two years, UCTs probably led to a clinically meaningful, very large reduction in the likelihood of having had any illness in the previous two weeks to three months (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.92; I² = 53%; 6 C-RCTs, 9367 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). UCTs may have increased the likelihood of having been food secure over the previous month, at 13 to 36 months into the intervention (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.45; I² = 85%; 5 C-RCTs, 2687 participants; low-certainty evidence). UCTs may have increased participants' level of dietary diversity over the previous week, when assessed with the Household Dietary Diversity Score and followed up 24 months into the intervention (mean difference (MD) 0.59 food categories, 95% CI 0.18 to 1.01; I² = 79%; 4 C-RCTs, 9347 participants; low-certainty evidence). Despite several studies providing relevant evidence, the effects of UCTs on the likelihood of being moderately stunted and on the level of depression remain uncertain. We found no study on the effect of UCTs on mortality risk. Social determinants of health UCTs probably led to a clinically meaningful, moderate increase in the likelihood of currently attending school, when assessed at 12 to 24 months into the intervention (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.09; I² = 0%; 8 C-RCTs, 7136 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). UCTs may have reduced the likelihood of households being extremely poor, at 12 to 36 months into the intervention (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.97; I² = 63%; 6 C-RCTs, 3805 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence was uncertain for whether UCTs impacted livestock ownership, participation in labour, and parenting quality. Healthcare expenditure Evidence from eight cluster-RCTs on healthcare expenditure was too inconsistent to be combined in a meta-analysis, but it suggested that UCTs may have increased the amount of money spent on health care at 7 to 36 months into the intervention (low-certainty evidence). Equity, harms and comparison with CCTs The effects of UCTs on health equity (or unfair and remedial health inequalities) were very uncertain. We did not identify any harms from UCTs. Three cluster-RCTs compared UCTs versus CCTs with regard to the likelihood of having used any health services or had any illness, or the level of dietary diversity, but evidence was limited to one study per outcome and was very uncertain for all three.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This body of evidence suggests that unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) may not impact a summary measure of health service use in children and adults in LMICs. However, UCTs probably or may improve some health outcomes (i.e. the likelihood of having had any illness, the likelihood of having been food secure, and the level of dietary diversity), two social determinants of health (i.e. the likelihoods of attending school and being extremely poor), and healthcare expenditure. The evidence on the relative effectiveness of UCTs and CCTs remains very uncertain.

Effect of alternative income assistance schedules on drug use and drug-related harm: a randomised controlled trial

Background

The synchronised monthly disbursement of income assistance, whereby all recipients are paid on the same day, has been associated with increases in illicit drug use and serious associated harms. This phenomenon is often referred to as the cheque effect. Because payment variability can affect consumption patterns, this study aimed to assess whether these harms could be mitigated through a structural intervention that varied income assistance payment timing and frequency.

Methods

This randomised, parallel group trial was done in Vancouver, Canada, and enrolled recipients of income assistance whose drug use increased around payment days. The recipients were randomly assigned 1:2:2 to a control group that received monthly synchronised income assistance payments on government payment days, a staggered group in which participants received single desynchronised monthly income assistance payments, or a split and staggered group in which participants received desynchronised income assistance payments split into two instalments per month, 2 weeks apart, for six monthly payment cycles. Desynchronised payments in the intervention groups were made on individual payment days outside the week of the standard government schedules. Randomisation was through a pre-established stratified block procedure. Investigators and statisticians were masked to group allocation, but participants and front-line staff were not. Complete final results are reported after scheduled interim analyses and the resulting early stoppage of recruitment. Under intention-to-treat specifications, generalised linear mixed models were used to analyse the primary outcome, which was escalations in drug use, predefined as a 40% increase in at least one of: use frequency; use quantity; or number of substances used during the 3 days after government payments. Secondary analyses examined analogous drug use outcomes coinciding with individual payments as well as exposure to violence. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02457949.

Findings

Between Oct 27, 2015, and Jan 2, 2019, 45 participants were enrolled to the control group, 72 to the staggered group, and 77 to the split and staggered group. Intention-to-treat analyses showed a significantly reduced likelihood of increased drug use coinciding with government payment days, relative to the control group, in the staggered (adjusted odds ratio 0·38, 95% CI 0·20–0·74; p=0·0044) and split and staggered (0·44, 0·23–0·83; p=0·012) groups. Findings were consistent in the secondary analyses of drug use coinciding with individual payment days (staggered group 0·50, 0·27–0·96, p=0·036; split and staggered group 0·49, 0·26–0·94, p=0·030). However, secondary outcome analyses of exposure to violence showed increased harm in the staggered group compared with the control group (2·71, 1·06–6·91, p=0·037). Additionally, 51 individuals had a severe or life-threatening adverse event and there were six deaths, none of which was directly attributed to study participation.

Interpretation

Complex results indicate the potential for modified income assistance payment schedules to mitigate escalations in drug use, provided measures to address unintended harms are also undertaken. Additional research is needed to clarify whether desynchronised schedules produce other unanticipated consequences and if additional measures could mitigate these harms.

Funding

Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Providence Health Care Research Institute, Peter Wall Institute for Advanced Research, Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research.

Do Income Supplemental Programs for Older Adults' Help Reduce Primary Caregiver Burden? Evidence from Mexico

In countries such as Mexico without formal public long-term care policies, informal care becomes the main source of support for older adults. Alternative social programs, such as supplemental income programs, for older adults could alleviate caregiver burden, especially if supplemental income were to be used for paid care or to compensate non-paid family caregivers. This work is the first to analyze the effects of a supplemental income program for older adults on primary caregiver burden. To identify how such a program might affect caregiver burden, we analyze rich panel data on 433 adults 70 years and older in two communities, one receiving a supplemental income program and the other not, in Yucatan, Mexico. Data were collected in 2008 and 2009 among treatment and control groups before and 6 months after program introduction. We employ a difference-in-differences approach. In our sample, most care is provided by non-paid female caregivers. We find that individuals in both the treatment and control groups received fewer hours of care over time. The decrease was lower for older adults who received the supplemental income, but the difference with those who did not was not statistically significant. We also observe few changes on caregiving burden; even after program introduction, more than 98% of caregivers remained unpaid and the same primary caregiver remained. Altogether, our work suggests supplemental income programs have negligible effects on caregiving, making evident the urgent need for other strategies to support non-paid caregivers who bear most of the burden for old-age care in Mexico.

Income Shocks and Partnership Formation: Evidence from Malawi

The ever-increasing prevalence of negative shocks experienced by poor, vulnerable households often induces extreme measures as ways to recover from the negative effects on income. Child marriage is one of the coping mechanisms households may use. This study examines whether young people in households that experience a negative shock are more likely to marry than those not experiencing a shock, and whether this effect differs by lineage system. I show that marrying off daughters is, in fact, a coping mechanism used by patrilineal households after experiencing a shock and that these effects are potentially strongest for young women who are already out of school. Conversely, I find no significant effect for young men. Additionally, I find suggestive evidence of an increased likelihood of young women engaging in transactional sexual relationships after a shock as an individual-level coping mechanism. Understanding the mechanisms leading to the increased incidence of these phenomena provides valuable information that can help combat such practices.

Income Timing and Liquidity Constraints: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment

People in developing countries sometimes desire deferred income streams, which replace more-frequent income flows with a single, later lump sum. We study the effects of short-term wage deferral using a randomized experiment with participants in a temporary cash-for-work program. Workers who are assigned to lump-sum payments are five percentage points more likely to purchase a high-return investment. We discuss the role of both barriers to saving and credit constraints in explaining our results. While stated preferences for deferred payments suggest a role for savings constraints, the evidence is also consistent with a simpler model of credit constraints alone.

Non-contributory pension programs and frailty of older adults: Evidence from Mexico

Non-contributory pension programs in the developing world seek to provide older adults with an income that may improve their health and wellbeing in old age by enabling access to health care and better nutrition. There is no previous evidence of the effects of non-contributory pensions on frailty, a comprehensive measure of health and well-being of the oldest old. We aimed to estimate the effects of non-contributory pension programs on frailty of older adults in the state of Yucatan, Mexico. We use rich panel data, including objective markers and self-reported assessments of health and well-being, for 944 adults at least 70 years of age in two communities of Yucatan, Mexico. The first wave was collected in 2008; the second wave was collected in 2010, 18 months after implementation of a monthly state pension in one community and 12 months after a federal pension paid every two months in the other. We found the state pension led to a statistically significant decrease in the severity of frailty for women, but the federal pension was associated with an increase. We found no statistically significant change in the frailty index for men in either community. Among explanations for these findings are monthly payments being more likely to be spent on health care, medicines, and more regular food expenditures, enabling women who previously lacked independent means of support to increase their longer-term health. The federal program paid every two months led to irregular patterns of food expenditure and increased ownership of durable goods but had no effects on health care utilization, subsequently leading to deterioration in longer-term health for women.