The impact of health on economic growth: A narrative literature review

The nexus between health and economic growth is a dynamic and complex relationship. This article reviews the empirical evidence that has sought to assess the causal impact of health on growth, understood as growth in GDP per capita, and focusing on cross-country and selected single country studies. The review largely provides evidence in favour of a positive effect of population health on economic growth. However, the multitude of the factors at play and the possible bidirectional relationship between health and growth pose a challenge for the quantification of the effect and for the relative importance of the underlying mechanisms. There is notable heterogeneity between studies in the magnitude and, in some cases, even in the sign of the effect. The evidence suggests that the health-growth relationship may depend on three main factors: the sample composition (i.e. a country's demographic stage or GDP per capita); the health dimension considered (e.g. health improvements at different life stages may affect productivity differently); and the model specification (e.g. whether or not initial life expectancy is controlled for in the analysis or the quality of the instrument). These findings advocate for a policy approach that integrates health considerations into economic strategies and emphasizes intersectoral collaboration to maximize the economic returns from improved health outcomes.

Progress towards universal health coverage and inequalities in infant mortality: an analysis of 4·1 million births from 60 low-income and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2019

BACKGROUND

Expanding universal health coverage (UHC) might not be inherently beneficial to poorer populations without the explicit targeting and prioritising of low-income populations. This study examines whether the expansion of UHC between 2000 and 2019 is associated with reduced socioeconomic inequalities in infant mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

We did a retrospective analysis of birth data compiled from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs). We analysed all births between 2000 and 2019 from all DHSs available for this period. The primary outcome was infant mortality, defined as death within 1 year of birth. Logistic regression models with country and year fixed effects assessed associations between country-level progress to UHC (using WHO's UHC service coverage index) and infant mortality (overall and by wealth quintile), adjusting for infant-level, mother-level, and country-level variables.

FINDINGS

A total of 4 065 868 births to 1 833 011 mothers were analysed from 177 DHSs covering 60 LMICs between 2000 and 2019. A one unit increase in the UHC index was associated with a 1·2% reduction in the risk of infant death (AOR 0·988, 95% CI 0·981-0·995; absolute measure of association, 0·57 deaths per 1000 livebirths). An estimated 15·5 million infant deaths were averted between 2000 and 2019 because of increases in UHC. However, richer wealth quintiles had larger associated reductions in infant mortality from UHC (quintile 5 AOR 0·983, 95% CI 0·973-0·993) than poorer quintiles (quintile 1 0·991, 0·985-0·998). In the early stages of UHC, UHC expansion was generally beneficial to poorer populations (ie, larger reductions in infant mortality for poorer households [infant deaths per 1000 per one unit increase in UHC coverage: quintile 1 0·84 vs quintile 5 0·59]), but became less so as overall coverage increased (quintile 1 0·64 vs quintile 5 0·57).

INTERPRETATION

Since UHC expansion in LMICs appears to become less beneficial to poorer populations as coverage increases, UHC policies should be explicitly designed to ensure lower income groups continue to benefit as coverage expands.

FUNDING

UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

The effects of social pensions on nutrition-related health outcomes of the poor: Quasi-experimental evidence from Peru

This paper exploits the discontinuity around a welfare index of eligibility to assess the impact of Peru's social pension program Pension 65 on nutrition-related health outcomes among elderly poor individuals. Overall, we find evidence of how a relatively inexpensive program can produce improvements in anemia and nutrition-related mortality risk markers. The effects appear to be driven by plausible underlying mechanisms, including via improved nutritional quality as well as greater food expenditures and healthcare utilization. These positive effects are only modestly countered by tentative signs of an increased obesity risk among women in the short term (<2 years), but not beyond this term. As the program evolves further, policymakers need to confront the challenge of continuing to ensure the health benefits in terms of reducing nutritional deficits while avoiding potential undesirable side effects in terms of over-nutrition in Peru. The findings may serve to highlight the wider benefits of similar pension policies for the poor also in other middle income countries, well beyond the immediate economic welfare effects that the policies have primarily been designed for.

The impact of health on labour market outcomes: A rapid systematic review

The relationship between an individual's health and their labour market outcomes has long been a subject of health economics research. This review aims to provide an up-to-date, global review of the substantive findings in the existing literature. We pay particular attention to causal effects, acknowledging the methodological complexities that have long challenged the research and emphasizing the importance of overcoming them to present robust, policy-relevant evidence. The recent literature shows a notable advancement in addressing these methodological issues compared to previous work. The evidence reviewed suggests that individuals with better health overwhelmingly exhibit higher earnings and often enhanced labour supply. These findings extend beyond geographical boundaries, as evidence from diverse regions underscores the global significance of this association. The review covers evidence from a wide range of health indicators and conditions - including e.g. self-reported health, chronic diseases, disability, nutritional health, infections, mental health, addictions and others. Within and across the different health domains, the health-related factors exert varying degrees of influence on labour market outcomes, highlighting the multifaceted nature of the health-labour relationship and its potentially profound implications for individuals, communities, and economies.

Peer effects in weight-related behaviours of young people: A systematic literature review

Individual preferences and beliefs are perpetually shaped by environmental influences, with peers playing a key role in this dynamic process. Compelling evidence from qualitative and quantitative studies has highlighted the significant impact of peer influence on health-related decisions. This systematic literature review critically synthesises findings from 45 studies published between 2011 and 2022, providing a comprehensive understanding of the nature of peer effects on dietary, physical activity and sleep behaviours during youth. The majority of studies indicated that social norms drive directional changes in eating and physical activity. Yet, our analysis revealed a notable gap in exploring alternative mechanisms, including social comparison and social identity, despite their potential relevance. Studies, generally classified as moderate to high quality, predominantly relied on self-reported data, potentially affecting the validity and reliability of measures. Meta-regression analyses suggest a small, but significant association of sample size with the magnitude, sign and significance of the reported peer effects. Moreover, studies focusing on physical activity are more likely to report significant outcomes, whereas findings on peer influence on sleep-related studies tend to reveal less pronounced effects, compared to studies on dietary behaviours. Experimental designs do not appear to increase the likelihood of finding significant effects when compared to other study designs. In conclusion, this synthesis emphasises the need for further research into the underlying mechanisms on peer effects to better inform policy-makers in designing effective policies for improving weight-related behaviours in young people.

The effect of conflict-related violence intensity and alcohol use on mental health: The case of Colombia

We investigated the causal impact of conflict-related violence on individual mental health and its potential pathways in Colombia. Using data from before and after the 2016 peace accord between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), we adopted a difference-in-differences empirical design combined with instrumental variables estimation. We also used formal mediation analysis to investigate a possible mediating role of alcohol consumption in the relationship between conflict exposure and mental health. Our results did not support the hypothesis that changes in exposure to conflict violence after the peace accord causally led to any changes in individual mental health. We were unable to identify a statistically significant mediating effect of alcohol consumption in the relationship between exposure to conflict violence and mental health.

Exploring the association between primary care efficiency and health system characteristics across European countries: a two-stage data envelopment analysis

BACKGROUND

Primary care is widely seen as a core component of resilient and sustainable health systems, yet its efficiency is not well understood and there is a lack of evidence about how primary care efficiency is associated with health system characteristics. We examine this issue through the lens of diabetes care, which has a well-established evidence base for effective treatment and has previously been used as a tracer condition to measure health system performance.

METHODS

We developed a conceptual framework to guide the analysis of primary care efficiency. Using data on 18 European countries during 2010-2016 from several international databases, we applied a two-stage data envelopment analysis to estimate (i) technical efficiency of primary care and (ii) the association between efficiency and health system characteristics.

RESULTS

Countries varied widely in terms of primary care efficiency, with efficiency scores depending on the range of population characteristics adjusted for. Higher efficiency was associated with bonus payments for the prevention and management of chronic conditions, nurse-led follow-up, and a financial incentive or requirement for patients to obtain a referral to specialist care. Conversely, lower efficiency was associated with higher rates of curative care beds and financial incentives for patients to register with a primary care provider.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results underline the importance of considering differences in population characteristics when comparing country performance on primary care efficiency. We highlight several policies that could enhance the efficiency of primary care. Improvements in data collection would enable more comprehensive assessments of primary care efficiency across countries, which in turn could more effectively inform policymaking.

Associations between change in physical activity and sedentary time and health-related quality of life in older english adults: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study

BACKGROUND

No previous studies have examined the associations between changes in objectively-measured physical behaviours with follow-up QoL in older adults. Based on cross-sectional evidence, it is biologically plausible that such associations exist. If so, this bolsters the case for the commissioning of activity interventions and for including QoL as an outcome in trials of such interventions.

METHODS

We assessed physical behaviours (total physical activity, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), light physical activity, total sedentary time and prolonged sedentary bout time) for 7 days using hip-worn accelerometers at baseline (2006-2011) and follow-up (2012-2016) and health-related quality-of-life (QoL) using EQ-5D questionnaires at follow-up in 1433 participants (≥ 60 years) of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)-Norfolk study. The EQ-5D summary score was used, with 0 as the worst to 1 as best perceived quality-of-life. We evaluated the prospective associations of baseline physical behaviours with follow-up QoL, and of changes in behaviours with follow-up QoL using multi-level regression.

RESULTS

On average, MVPA decreased by 4.0 min/day/year (SD 8.3) for men and 4.0 min/day/year for women (SD 12.0) between baseline and follow-up. Total sedentary time increased by an average 5.5 min/day/yr (SD 16.0) for men and 6.4 min/day/yr (SD 15.0) for women between baseline and follow-up. Mean (SD) follow-up time was 5.8 (1.8) years. We found that higher baseline MVPA and lower sedentary time was associated with higher subsequent QoL (e.g. 1 h/day greater baseline MVPA was associated with 0.02 higher EQ-5D score, 95% CI 0.06, 0.36). More pronounced declines in activity were associated with worse Hr-QoL (0.005 (95% CI 0.003, 0.008) lower EQ-5D per min/day/yr decrease in MVPA). Increases in sedentary behaviours were also associated with poorer QoL (0.002 lower EQ-5D, 95% CI -0.003, -0.0007 per hour/day/yr increase in total sedentary time).

CONCLUSIONS

Promotion of physical activity and limiting sedentary time among older adults may improve quality-of-life, and therefore this relationship ought to be included in future cost effectiveness analyses so that greater commissioning of activity interventions can be considered.

The effect of health financing systems on health system outcomes: A cross-country panel analysis

Several low- and middle-income countries are considering health financing system reforms to accelerate progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). However, empirical evidence of the effect of health financing systems on health system outcomes is scarce, partly because it is difficult to quantitatively capture the 'health financing system'. We assign country-year observations to one of three health financing systems (i.e., predominantly out-of-pocket, social health insurance (SHI) or government-financed), using clustering based on out-of-pocket, contributory SHI and non-contributory government expenditure, as a percentage of total health expenditures. We then estimate the effect of these different systems on health system outcomes, using fixed effects regressions. We find that transitions from OOP-dominant to government-financed systems improved most outcomes more than did transitions to SHI systems. Transitions to government financing increases life expectancy (+1.3 years, p < 0.05) and reduces under-5 mortality (-8.7%, p < 0.05) and catastrophic health expenditure incidence (-3.3 percentage points, p < 0.05). Results are robust to several sensitivity tests. It is more likely that increases in non-contributory government financing rather than SHI financing improve health system outcomes. Notable reasons include SHI's higher implementation costs and more limited coverage. These results may raise a warning for policymakers considering SHI reforms to reach UHC.

The impact of economic sanctions on health and health systems in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and narrative synthesis

INTRODUCTION

Economic sanctions restrict customary commercial and financial ties between states to induce change in political constitution or conduct of the targeted country. Although the stated goals of sanctions often include humanitarian objectives, prospective procedures for health risk assessment are not regularly incorporated in their implementation. Moreover, past experience suggests that the burden of economic isolation may fall on the civilian population. We present key findings from a WHO-sponsored evidence review on the impact of economic sanctions on health and health systems in low-income and middle-income countries, aiming at comprehensive coverage and explicit consideration of issues of causality and mechanisms.

METHODS

Broad searches of PubMed and Google Scholar (1970-2021) were designed to retrieve published and grey English-language literature expected to cut across disciplines, terminology and research methods. Studies providing an impact estimate were rated by a structured assessment based on ROBINS-I risk of bias domains, synthesised via vote counting and contextualised into the broader literature through a thematic synthesis.

RESULTS

Included studies (185) were mostly peer-reviewed, mostly single-country, largely coming from medicine and public health, and chiefly concerned with three important target countries-Iraq, Haiti and Iran. Among studies providing impact estimates (31), most raised multiple risk-of-bias concerns. Excluding those with data integrity issues, a significant proportion (21/27) reported consistently adverse effects of sanctions across examined outcomes, with no apparent association to assessed quality, focus on early episodes or publication period. The thematic synthesis highlights the complexity of sanctions, their multidimensionality and the possible mechanisms of impact.

CONCLUSION

Future research should draw on qualitative knowledge to collect domain-relevant data, combining it with better estimation techniques and study design. However, only the adoption of a risk assessment framework based on prospective data collection and monitoring can certify claims that civilians are adequately protected.

The Effects and Costs of Personalized Budgets for People with Disabilities: A Systematic Review

This article reviews the peer-reviewed and grey literature published from January 1985 to November 2022 that has quantitatively evaluated the effects of personalized budgets for people with disabilities (PwDs), in terms of a range of benefit and cost outcomes. Benefit metrics of interest comprised measures of well-being, service satisfaction and use, quality of life, health, and unmet needs. A search was conducted using the PsycINFO, MEDLINE, CINAHL, ASSIA, and Social Care Online databases. Based on inclusion criteria and a quality assessment using the Downs and Black Checklist, a final count of 23 studies were identified for in-depth review. Given the heterogeneous nature of the studies, a narrative synthesis, rather than a formal meta-analysis, was undertaken. Taking the relatively scarce and often methodologically limited evidence base at face value, the findings suggest that-overall-personalized budget users tend to benefit in terms of well-being and service satisfaction outcomes, with the exception of mixed effects for people with mental health conditions. Only a minority of studies have investigated the cost-effectiveness or costs-only of personalized budgets, finding mixed results. Two out of the three cost-effectiveness studies find personal budgets to be more cost-effective than alternative options, meaning that the possibly higher costs of personalized budgets may be more than outweighed by additional benefits. Some evidence looking at service use and/or costs only also points to significant reductions in certain service use areas, which at least hints at the potential that personalized budgeting may-in some cases-entail reduced costs. Further research is needed to explore the generalizability of these conclusions and to better capture and understand the factors driving the observed heterogeneity in some of the results.

Estimating the Health Effects of Expansions in Health Expenditure in Indonesia: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

BACKGROUND

The marginal productivity of a country's healthcare system refers to the health gains produced per unit change in the level of spending. In budget-constrained settings, this metric reflects the opportunity cost, in terms of health gains forgone, of committing additional or existing resources to alternative uses within the healthcare system. It can therefore assist in evidence-based decisions on whether different interventions represent good value for money.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this paper was to estimate the marginal productivity of the Indonesian healthcare system using subnational data, and to use this to inform health opportunity costs in the country.

METHODS

We define a dynamic health production function to model the stream of effects of current and prior public health spending decisions on population under-five mortality. To estimate the model, we use data from the 33 Indonesian provinces for the 2004-2012 period. The estimated elasticity is then translated into gains in terms of cost per DALY (disability-adjusted life-year) averted. We use dynamic panel data methods to address potential endogeneity issues in the model.

RESULTS

Our base-case estimates suggest that a 1% expansion in the level of health spending reduces under-five mortality by 0.38% (95% CI 0.00-0.76), which translates into a cost of averting one DALY of $235 (2019 US$).

CONCLUSION

With Indonesia aiming for universal health coverage, our results support these efforts by highlighting the associated benefits resulting from increases in public health expenditure and have the potential to inform the decision-making process about a suitable locally relevant cost-effectiveness threshold.

How multimorbidity and socio-economic factors affect Long Covid: Evidence from European Countries

Introduction

An increasing number of individuals continue reporting symptoms following the acute stage of Covid-19 infection. Few studies have investigated the factors related to Long Covid. Our aim was to assess how multimorbidity, socio-economic factors (immigration, education, employment, and income), and country of residence affect the presence and number of persistent symptoms attributable to Covid-19 illness in Europe.

Methods

We used data from the SHARE Corona surveys collected in 2020 and 2021. The sample included 4,004 respondents aged 50 years and older who were affected by the Corona virus. The outcome was the number of persistent symptoms attributable to Covid-19 illness, including: fatigue; cough, congestion, shortness of breath; loss of taste or smell; headache; body aches, joint pain; chest or abdominal pain; diarrhoea, nausea; and confusion. We conducted a multilevel analysis for a hurdle model with negative binomial distribution.

Results

Overall, 73% of respondents were estimated to have at least one persistent symptom associated with Covid-19 illness and, on average, they had 2.73 symptoms. However, there were some statistically significant across country differences in the presence and number of symptoms. Respondents who were employed were more likely to report at least one symptom (OR = 1.40) and those with higher levels of education were less likely to report any symptoms (OR = 0.67). Respondents with multimorbidity had an increased risk of experiencing an additional symptom (RR = 1.12) while respondents who were employed had a decreased risk of experiencing an additional symptom (RR = 0.85).

Discussion and conclusions

Presence and number of persistent symptoms associated with Covid-19 illness was highly prevalent and varied significantly across European countries. Evidence from the present work underscores the need to target high-risk groups and those with multimorbidity to reduce long-term health consequences of Covid-19.

The impact of civil conflict on child health: Evidence from Colombia

Internal armed conflicts have become more common and more physically destructive since the mid-20th century, with devastating consequences for health and development in low- and middle-income countries. This paper investigates the causal impacts of the long-term internal conflict on child health in Colombia, following an identification strategy based on the temporal and geographic variation of conflict intensity. We estimate the effect of different levels of conflict intensity on height-for-age (HAZ), weight-for-age (WAZ), and weight-for-height z-scores among children under five years old, and explore the underlying potential mechanisms, through maternal health behavior and health care utilization. We find a harmful effect of exposure to conflict violence in utero and in early childhood for HAZ and WAZ, in the full sample and even more strongly in the rural sample, yet these estimates are smaller than those found for shorter term conflicts. The underlying pathways appear to operate around the time of the pregnancy and birth (in the form of maternal alcohol use, use of antenatal care and skilled birth attendance), rather than during the post-birth period (via breastfeeding or vaccination), and the impacts accumulate over the childhood. The most adverse impacts of conflict violence on child health and utilization of maternal healthcare were observed in municipalities which suffered from intermittent presence of armed groups.

Toward the economic evaluation of participatory approaches in health promotion: lessons from four German physical activity promotion projects

Health promotion increasingly employs participatory approaches, but the question arises whether the likely higher costs of participation also translate into greater benefits. This article takes a first step toward a full health economic evaluation by comprehensively reporting the costs of a specific participatory approach, Cooperative Planning, in a German research consortium to promote physical activity. We conducted a costing analysis of Cooperative Planning at 22 sites across six settings. Project teams used a custom template to record resource use. We calculated average costs per meeting, site and setting using the opportunity costs approach, and obtained feedback from participating researchers. A total of 144 planning meetings with an average of nine participants were conducted. Costs per meeting varied significantly across settings. Differences were mostly attributable to varying meeting duration, preparation time and numbers of participants. Across settings, human resources accounted for roughly 95% of the costs. Implementing researchers reported challenges regarding the logic and methods of the health economic analysis. A participatory approach to physical activity promotion may cause substantially varying costs in different settings despite similar cost structures. However, their value for money could turn out comparably favorable if (and only if) the expected benefits is indeed forthcoming. Despite some challenges implementing the costing exercise into the logistics of ongoing participatory projects, this analysis may pave the way toward a full health economic evaluation, and the template may be useful to future participatory health promotion projects.

The effect of TV viewing on children's obesity risk and mental well-being: Evidence from the UK digital switchover

We examine the effect of screen-based activities on obesity and mental well-being for children, using a large survey dataset representative of the UK population and an event study model that exploits exogenous variation in the entry date of the digital television transition in the UK. The digital transition increased the number of available free television channels from 5 to 40, leading to a rise in television viewing time. Our results show that receiving access to digital television signal considerably increases the mental health total difficulties score among children, and that this impact grows over time. We also find suggestive evidence that the digital transition could have increased BMI for children. Underlying the net effects appear to be decreases in participation in social and physical activities.

Health in Conflict Zones: Analyzing Inequalities in Mental Health in Colombian Conflict-Affected Territories

Objectives: Colombia’s civil conflict and persistent socio-economic disparities have contributed to mental health inequalities in conflict-affected territories. We explore the magnitude of mental health inequalities, contributing socio-economic factors, and sociodemographic characteristics that explain these differences.

Methods: The study draws on data collected in 2018, using the household survey Conflicto, Paz y Salud (CONPAS) applied to 1,309 households in Meta, Colombia. Logistic regression and decomposition analysis were used to analyze the risk of mental health disorders, measured with the Self-Reporting Questionnaire -20 (SRQ-20).

Results: Individuals with lower socio-economic status are at a higher risk for mental health disorders. Forced displacement accounts for 31% of the measured mental health inequalities. Disparities in employment, education level, disability and conflict incidence between municipalities are other contributing factors. Women and people with disabilities are respectively 2.3 and 1.2 times more prone to present a mental health disorder.

Conclusion: It is necessary to tackle the identified risk factors and sociodemographic circumstances that contribute to mental health inequalities in conflict-affected territories, as these hinder adequate/equitable access to mental health services.

Investigating unmet need for healthcare using the European Health Interview Survey: a cross-sectional survey study of Luxembourg

OBJECTIVES

We investigate the prevalence of unmet need arising from wait times, distance/transportation and financial affordability using the European Health Interview Survey. We explore associations between individual characteristics and the probability of reporting unmet need.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey conducted between February and December 2014.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

4004 members of the resident population in private households registered with the health insurance fund in Luxembourg aged 15 years and over.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Six binary variables that measured unmet need arising from wait time, distance/transportation and affordability of medical, dental and mental healthcare and prescribed medicines among those who reported a need for care.

RESULTS

The most common barrier to access arose from wait times (32%) and the least common from distance/transportation (4%). Dental care (12%) was most often reported as unaffordable, followed by prescribed medicines (6%), medical (5%) and mental health (5%) care. Respondents who reported bad/very bad health were associated with a higher risk of unmet need compared with those with good/very good health (wait: OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.53 to 3.80, distance/transportation: OR 7.12, 95% CI 2.91 to 17.44, afford medical care: OR 5.35, 95% CI 2.39 to 11.95, afford dental care: OR 3.26, 95% CI 1.86 to 5.71, afford prescribed medicines: OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.04 to 4.71, afford mental healthcare: OR 3.58, 95% CI 1.25 to 10.30). Income between the fourth and fifth quintiles was associated with a lower risk of unmet need for dental care (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.53), prescribed medicines (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.82) and mental healthcare (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.61) compared with income between the first and second quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent and planned reforms to address waiting times and financial barriers to accessing healthcare may help to address unmet need. In addition, policy-makers should consider additional policies targeted at high-risk groups with poor health and low incomes.

Equity and economic evaluation of system-level health interventions: A case study of Brazil's Family Health Program

Distributional economic evaluation estimates the value for money of health interventions in terms of population health and health equity impacts. When applied to interventions delivered at the population and health system-level interventions (PSIs) instead of clinical interventions, additional practical and methodological challenges arise. Using the example of the Programme Saúde da Familia (PSF) in Brazil, a community-level primary care system intervention, we seek to illustrate these challenges and provide potential solutions. We use a distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA) approach to evaluate the impact of the PSF on population health and between-state health inequalities in Brazil. Data on baseline health status, disease prevalence and PSF effectiveness are extracted from the literature and incorporated into a Markov model to estimate the long-term impacts in terms of disability-adjusted life years. The inequality and average health impacts are analysed simultaneously using health-related social welfare functions. Uncertainty is computed using Monte Carlo simulation. The DCEA encountered several challenges in the context of PSIs. Non-randomized, quasi-experimental methods may not be powered to identify treatment effect heterogeneity estimates to inform a decision model. PSIs are more likely to be funded from multiple public sector budgets, complicating the calculation of health opportunity costs. We estimate a cost-per-disability-adjusted life years of funding the PSF of $2640. Net benefits were positive across the likely range of intervention cost. Social welfare analysis indicates that, compared to gains in average health, changes in health inequalities accounted for a small proportion of the total welfare improvement, even at high levels of social inequality aversion. Evidence on the population health and health equity impacts of PSIs can be incorporated into economic evaluation methods, although with additional complexity and assumptions. The case study results indicate that the PSF is likely to be cost-effective but that the inequality impacts are small and highly uncertain.

Socioeconomic inequality in premiums for a community-based health insurance scheme in Rwanda

Community-based health insurance (CBHI) has gained popularity in many low- and middle-income countries, partly as a policy response to calls for low-cost, pro-poor health financing solutions. In Africa, Rwanda has successfully implemented two types of CBHI systems since 2005, one of which with a flat rate premium (2005-10) and the other with a stratified premium (2011-present). Existing CBHI evaluations have, however, tended to ignore the potential distributional aspects of the household contributions made towards CBHI. In this paper, we investigate the pattern of socioeconomic inequality in CBHI household premium contributions in Rwanda within the implementation periods. We also assess gender differences in CBHI contributions. Using the 2010/11 and 2013/14 rounds of national survey data, we quantify the magnitude of inequality in CBHI payments, decompose the concentration index of inequality, calculate Kakwani indices and implement unconditional quantile regression decomposition to assess gender differences in CBHI expenditure. We find that the CBHI with stratified premiums is less regressive than CBHI with a flat rate premium system. Decomposition analysis indicates that income and CBHI stratification explain a large share of the inequality in CBHI payments. With respect to gender, female-headed households make lower contributions towards CBHI expenditure, compared with male-headed households. In terms of policy implications, the results suggest that there may be a need for increasing the premium bracket for the wealthier households, as well as for the provision of more subsidies to vulnerable households.

Facility standards and the quality of public sector primary care: Evidence from South Africa's "Ideal Clinics" program

Primary healthcare systems are central to achieving universal healthcare coverage. However, in many low- and middle-income country settings, primary care quality is challenged by inadequate facility infrastructure and equipment, limited human resources, and poor provider process. We study the effects of a recent large-scale quality improvement policy in South Africa, the Ideal Clinics Realization and Maintenance Program (ICRMP). The ICRMP introduced a set of standards for facilities and a quality improvement process involving manuals, district-based support, and external assessment. Exploiting differential prioritization of facilities for the ICRMP's quality improvement process, we apply differences-in-differences methods to identify the effects of the program's efforts on standards scores and primary care quality indicators over the first 12 months of implementation. We find large and statistically significant increases in standards scores, but mixed effects on care outcomes-a small magnitude improvement in early antenatal care usage, null effects on childhood immunization and cervical cancer screening, and small negative effect of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care. While the ICRMP process has led to significant improvements in facilities' satisfaction of the program's standards, we were unable to detect meaningful change in care quality indicators.

Mortality, morbidity and economic growth

The question of whether and how changes to population health impact on economic growth has been actively studied in the literature, albeit with mixed results. We contribute to this debate by reassessing–and extending–[1], one of the most influential studies. We include a larger set of countries (135) and cover a more recent period (1990–2014). We also account for morbidity in addition to mortality and adopt the strategy of providing bounding sets for the effects of interest rather than point estimates. We find that reducing mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs), a measure which combines morbidity and mortality, promotes per capita GDP growth. The magnitude of the effect is moderate, but non negligible, and it is similar for mortality and DALYs.

How to make universal, voluntary testing for COVID-19 work? A behavioural economics perspective

Testing is widely seen as one core element of a successful strategy to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic and many countries have increased their efforts to provide testing at large scale. As most democratic governments refrain from enacting mandatory testing, a key emerging challenge is to increase voluntary participation. Using behavioural economics insights complemented with data from a novel survey in the US and a survey experiment in Luxembourg, we examine behavioural factors associated with the individual willingness to get tested (WTT). In our analysis, individual characteristics that correlate positively with WTT include age, altruism, conformism, the tendency to abide by government-imposed rules, concern about contracting COVID-19, and patience. Risk aversion, unemployment, and conservative political orientation correlate negatively with WTT. Building on and expanding these insights may prove fruitful for policy to effectively raise people's propensity to get tested.

Determinants of bicycle commuting and the effect of bicycle infrastructure investment in London: Evidence from UK census microdata

Worldwide, concern about physical inactivity and excessive car dependence has encouraged ambitious targets and policies to promote cycling. But policy making is hindered by limited knowledge about why cycling prevalence and trends vary greatly between different geographic areas (e.g. in London (UK) <1% cycle to work in Harrow compared to>15 % in Hackney) and individuals (e.g. by age or gender). The role of cycle infrastructure investment in explaining part of these patterns and trends is also unknown. We linked individual-level data on 317,117 London commuters (including 11,199 cyclists) in the 2001 and 2011 UK census to relevant geographic data, including on area-level cycling infrastructure investment during the period. Whilst cycle commuting increased over time on average, concentration curves and indices demonstrated that in contrast with England as a whole, cycling in London shifted from being dominated by commuters with lower socioeconomic status to commuters with higher socioeconomic status. In our first set of regression analyses, we showed that observed differences and time trends in cycling prevalence were partially explained by area-level differences in topography, greenspace, footpaths and crime levels and by differences and changes in population structures. In the second, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis which showed that expenditure on cycling infrastructure was associated with increased cycling at a marginal rate of £4915 per additional commuter cyclist, with some variation between groups: ethnic minorities were more responsive, and females, older people and those with lower socioeconomic status appeared less responsive. If planned increases in expenditure in England for the period 2020-25 were as cost-effective, and were sustained for the whole decade, our study suggests that commuter cycling prevalence could increase in England by 0.5 to 1.1 percentage points (this equates to a 16% to 34% increase in commuter cycling prevalence if compared to 2011 levels). More research is necessary to assess the impact on broader measures of cycling, active travel and overall physical activity, and to determine whether such expenditure constitutes good or equitable value for money.

COVID-19 in Europe: Dataset at a sub-national level

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit humanity, straining health care systems, economies, and governments worldwide. In one of the responses to the pandemic, a big global effort has been mounted to collect, analyze, and make data publicly available. However, many of the existing COVID-19 public datasets are (i) aggregated at country level, and (ii) tend not to bring the COVID-19-specific data coupled with socio-demographic, economic, public policy, health, pollution and environmental factors, all of which may be key elements to study the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 and its severity. To aid the evaluation of the determinants and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic at a large scale, we present here a new dataset with socio-demographic, economic, public policy, health, pollution and environmental factors for the European Union at the small regions level (NUTS3). The database is freely accessible at http://dx.doi.org/10.17632/2ghxnrkr9p.4. This dataset can help to monitor the COVID-19 mortality and infections at the sub-national level and enable analysis that may inform future policymaking.

A light of hope? Inequalities in mental health before and after the peace agreement in Colombia: a decomposition analysis

Background

The present study seeks to evaluate the change in mental health inequalities in the department of Meta after the signing of Colombia’s Peace Agreement in 2016 with the FARC guerrilla group. Using a validated survey instrument composed of 20 questions (‘SRQ-20’), we measure changes in mental health inequalities from 2014, before the signing of the agreement, to 2018, after the signing. We then decompose the changes in inequalities to establish which socioeconomic factors explain differences in mental health inequalities over time.

Methods

Our study uses information from the Conflicto, Salud y Paz (CONPAS) survey conducted in the department of Meta, Colombia, in 1309 households in 2018, with retrospective information for 2014. To measure inequalities, we calculate the concentration indices for both years. Through the Oaxaca change decomposition method, we disaggregate changes in mental health inequalities into its underlying factors. This method allows us to explain the relationship between changes in mental health inequalities and changes in inequalities in several sociodemographic factors. It also identifies the extent to which these factors help explain the changes in mental health inequalities.

Results

Mental health inequalities in Meta were reduced almost by half from 2014 to 2018. In 2018, the population at the lower and middle socioeconomic levels had fewer chances of experiencing mental health disorders in comparison to 2014. The reduction in mental health differences is mostly attributed to reductions in the influence of certain sociodemographic variables, such as residence in rural zones and conflict-affected territories, working in the informal sector, or experiencing internal displacement. However, even though mental health inequalities have diminished, overall mental health outcomes have worsened in these years.

Conclusions

The reduction in the contribution of conflict-related variables for explaining mental health inequalities could mean that the negative consequences of conflict on mental health have started to diminish in the short run after the peace agreement. Nevertheless, conflict and the presence of other socioeconomic inequalities still contribute to persistent adverse mental health outcomes in the overall population. Thus, public policy should be oriented towards improving mental health care services in these territories, given the post-accord context.

From impact evaluation to decision-analysis: assessing the extent and quality of evidence on ‘value for money’ in health impact evaluations in low- and middle-income countries

Background: Health impact evaluations (HIEs) are currently the main way of assessing policy changes in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, evidence on effectiveness alone cannot reliably inform decisions over the allocation of limited resources. Health economic evaluation provides a suitable framework for ‘value for money’ assessments. Methods: In this article we explore to what extent economic evaluations have been conducted alongside published health impact evaluations, then we assess the quality of these, using criteria from an economic evaluation reference case developed for use in LMICs. Results: Among the 2419 HIEs stored in the International Initiative for Impact Evaluations (3ie) database, and among the 8155 studies identified by the Ovid Medline database search, only 70 studies included an economic evaluation. When measured against the quality assessment criteria, study quality showed great variation. Many studies did not fulfil the basic requirements for economic evaluation, such as stating the perspective of the budget holder, using generic health measures that can be compared across diseases, or suitably reflecting uncertainty. Conclusions: Greater effort should be directed towards bringing the fields of impact evaluation and economic evaluation together to better inform resource allocation decisions in global health.

Diabetes, employment and behavioural risk factors in China: Marginal structural models versus fixed effects models

We use longitudinal data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, covering the years 1997-2011, to estimate the effect of a diabetes diagnosis on an economic outcome (employment probabilities) and behavioural risk factors (alcohol consumption, smoking cessation, body mass index (BMI), physical activity and hypertension) for men and women. We apply two complementary statistical techniques-marginal structural models (MSMs) and fixed effects (FE) models-to deal with confounding. Both methods suggest, despite their different underlying assumptions, similar patterns that indicate important differences between men and women. Employment probabilities decline substantially after the diagnosis for women (-12.4 (MSM) and -15.5 (FE) percentage points), but do not change significantly for men. In particular, the MSM estimates indicate an increase in hypertension (13 percentage points) and a decrease in physical activity for women, while men have small and statistically insignificant changes in these outcomes. For BMI, the MSM results indicate statistically significant changes for men (-.76), but not for women, while the FE estimates show similar reductions for men and women (-.80 and -.73 respectively). Men also reduce their alcohol consumption, but do not cease to smoke. For women these risk factors have a prevalence close to zero to begin with, though women seem to still reduce alcohol consumption somewhat. These results suggest important gender differences in the impact of diabetes in China. To narrow these inequities policies supporting women to reduce diabetes related risk factors are likely important.

The impact of economic sanctions on health and health systems in low- and middle-income countries

Background

Economic sanctions, understood as measures taken by one state or a group of states to coerce another into a desired conduct (eg by restricting trade and financial flows) do not primarily seek to adversely affect the health or health system of the target country's population. Yet, there may be indirect or unintended health and health system consequences that ought to be borne in mind when assessing the full set of effects of sanctions. We take stock of the evidence to date in terms of whether - and if so, how - economic sanctions impact health and health systems in LMICs.

Methods

We undertook a structured literature review (using MEDLINE and Google Scholar), covering the peer-reviewed and grey literature published from 1970-2019, with a specific focus on quantitative assessments.

Results

Most studies (23/27) that met our inclusion criteria focus on the relationship between sanctions and health outcomes, ranging from infant or child mortality as the most frequent case over viral hepatitis to diabetes and HIV, among others. Fewer studies (9/27) examined health system related indicators, either as a sole focus or jointly with health outcomes. A minority of studies explicitly addressed some of the methodological challenges, incl. control for relevant confounders and the endogeneity of sanctions. Taking the results at face value, the evidence is almost unanimous in highlighting the adverse health and health system effects of economic sanctions.

Conclusions

Quantitatively assessing the impact of economic sanctions on health or health systems is a challenging task, not least as it is persistently difficult to disentangle the effect of sanctions from many other, potentially major factors at work that matter for health (as, for instance, war). In addition, in times of severe economic and political crisis (which often coincide with sanctions), the collection of accurate and comprehensive data that could allow appropriate measurement is typically not a priority.

Key messages

The existing evidence is almost unanimous in highlighting the adverse health and health system effects of economic sanctions. There is preciously little good quality evidence on the health (system) impact of economic sanctions.

The Impact of Ghana's National Health Insurance on Psychological Distress

BACKGROUND

Poor mental health is among the growing number of noncommunicable diseases in low- and middle-income countries. Despite poor mental health accounting for an already considerable and growing burden of disease in many low- and middle-income countries, policy action to confront the challenge has been limited, at both international and national levels. Recently, several low- and middle-income countries have embarked on the journey toward universal health coverage by expanding their public health insurance provision, with the ultimate objective of improving population health, in addition to other health system objectives. Mental health interventions typically may not have been specifically covered in the publicly funded benefit package, and this raises the question of whether, and if so, by how much, the expansion of public health insurance may have directly or indirectly contributed to improved mental health.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the impact of Ghana's implementation of national health insurance on psychological distress.

METHODS

Our study used the first wave of the 2009-2010 Ghana Social Economic Panel survey, including 10,007 respondents. We employed instrumental variable and propensity score matching methods to estimate the causal impact of health insurance on psychological distress, measured by the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10). Higher K10 values indicate greater psychological distress.

RESULTS

The median K10 score in Ghana was 16 (P < 0.001), with a minimum of 10 (P < 0.001) and a maximum of 45 (P < 0.001). The results from the instrumental variable estimations, without matching, indicated that the K10 score for the insured was 11.8% lower (P < 0.001) than that of the uninsured. After running the instrumental variable regression on the matched sample, the K10 score for the insured was 10.6% (P < 0.001) lower than that of the uninsured. Similarly, the estimates based on propensity score matching indicated that the insured had a lower K10 score (- 0.023; P < 0.05). Furthermore, the beneficial impact of health insurance on psychological distress is larger for wealthier than poorer insurance members and varies across regions in Ghana. The findings were robust to the various estimation methods.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that having health insurance is associated with reduced psychological distress and hence improved mental health, even though mental illness treatment or prevention were at best only partially covered by the National Health Insurance Scheme in Ghana.

Evaluation of a very brief pedometer-based physical activity intervention delivered in NHS Health Checks in England: The VBI randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The majority of people do not achieve recommended levels of physical activity. There is a need for effective, scalable interventions to promote activity. Self-monitoring by pedometer is a potentially suitable strategy. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a very brief (5-minute) pedometer-based intervention ('Step It Up') delivered as part of National Health Service (NHS) Health Checks in primary care.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The Very Brief Intervention (VBI) Trial was a two parallel-group, randomised controlled trial (RCT) with 3-month follow-up, conducted in 23 primary care practices in the East of England. Participants were 1,007 healthy adults aged 40 to 74 years eligible for an NHS Health Check. They were randomly allocated (1:1) using a web-based tool between October 1, 2014, and December 31, 2015, to either intervention (505) or control group (502), stratified by primary care practice. Participants were aware of study group allocation. Control participants received the NHS Health Check only. Intervention participants additionally received Step It Up: a 5-minute face-to-face discussion, written materials, pedometer, and step chart. The primary outcome was accelerometer-based physical activity volume at 3-month follow-up adjusted for sex, 5-year age group, and general practice. Secondary outcomes included time spent in different intensities of physical activity, self-reported physical activity, and economic measures. We conducted an in-depth fidelity assessment on a subsample of Health Check consultations. Participants' mean age was 56 years, two-thirds were female, they were predominantly white, and two-thirds were in paid employment. The primary outcome was available in 859 (85.3%) participants. There was no significant between-group difference in activity volume at 3 months (adjusted intervention effect 8.8 counts per minute [cpm]; 95% CI -18.7 to 36.3; p = 0.53). We found no significant between-group differences in the secondary outcomes of step counts per day, time spent in moderate or vigorous activity, time spent in vigorous activity, and time spent in moderate-intensity activity (accelerometer-derived variables); as well as in total physical activity, home-based activity, work-based activity, leisure-based activity, commuting physical activity, and screen or TV time (self-reported physical activity variables). Of the 505 intervention participants, 491 (97%) received the Step it Up intervention. Analysis of 37 intervention consultations showed that 60% of Step it Up components were delivered faithfully. The intervention cost £18.04 per participant. Incremental cost to the NHS per 1,000-step increase per day was £96 and to society was £239. Adverse events were reported by 5 intervention participants (of which 2 were serious) and 5 control participants (of which 2 were serious). The study's limitations include a participation rate of 16% and low return of audiotapes by practices for fidelity assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large well-conducted trial, we found no evidence of effect of a plausible very brief pedometer intervention embedded in NHS Health Checks on objectively measured activity at 3-month follow-up.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials (ISRCTN72691150).

Effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on prices and affordability of soft drinks in Chile: A time series analysis

Chile is one of several countries that recently implemented a fiscal policy to reduce soft drink (SD) intake and obesity. In 2014 the government increased the existing ad-valorem tax on high-sugar SD by 5% and decreased by 3% the tax on low-sugar SD, based on a 6.25gr/100 ml sugar threshold. This study aims to evaluate the tax modification passed-on to consumers through prices, and to calculate changes in affordability of SDs. We analysed nationally representative consumer price index data of 41 soft drinks within 6 beverage categories between 2009 and 2016. Price change post-tax implementation was estimated for different categories (carbonates, juices, concentrates, waters and energy-sport drinks), using time-series analyses. In addition, changes in affordability were evaluated by estimating the changes in prices relative to wages. The price of carbonates increased by 5.60% (CI 95% 3.18–8.03%) immediately after the tax was implemented. A sustained increase in the prices of concentrates was observed after the implementation. Unexpectedly, a smaller increase was also seen for the price of bottled water – a category that saw no tax change. There were no effects for juices and energy-sports drinks. There was a reduction in affordability for carbonates, concentrates and waters. Overall, the fiscal policy was effective in increasing prices and there are some signs of reduced affordability. Results varied substantially among categories directly affected by the tax policy. While for carbonates the price increase exceeded the tax change (‘over-shifting’), in other categories subject to a tax cut, a price reduction was expected but the opposite occurred. As the effect of the tax on prices differed between categories, the effects of the tax policy on consumption patterns are likely to be mixed. Our findings underline the need to better understand and anticipate price setting behaviour of firms in response to a tax.

•

Chile implemented a tax policy on soft drinks (SD) to promote healthier diets in 2014.

•

It consists in a 5% tax increase on high-sugar SD and 3% reduction on low-sugar SD.

•

Using consumer price index data we estimate policy impact on SD price/affordability.

•

Overall, the policy was effective to increase prices and reduce affordability.

•

Results varied substantially among SD categories, with some counterintuitive effects.

The impact of public health insurance on health care utilisation, financial protection and health status in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Expanding public health insurance seeks to attain several desirable objectives, including increasing access to healthcare services, reducing the risk of catastrophic healthcare expenditures, and improving health outcomes. The extent to which these objectives are met in a real-world policy context remains an empirical question of increasing research and policy interest in recent years.

METHODS

We reviewed systematically empirical studies published from July 2010 to September 2016 using Medline, Embase, Econlit, CINAHL Plus via EBSCO, and Web of Science and grey literature databases. No language restrictions were applied. Our focus was on both randomised and observational studies, particularly those including explicitly attempts to tackle selection bias in estimating the treatment effect of health insurance. The main outcomes are: (1) utilisation of health services, (2) financial protection for the target population, and (3) changes in health status.

FINDINGS

8755 abstracts and 118 full-text articles were assessed. Sixty-eight studies met the inclusion criteria including six randomised studies, reflecting a substantial increase in the quantity and quality of research output compared to the time period before 2010. Overall, health insurance schemes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been found to improve access to health care as measured by increased utilisation of health care facilities (32 out of 40 studies). There also appeared to be a favourable effect on financial protection (26 out of 46 studies), although several studies indicated otherwise. There is moderate evidence that health insurance schemes improve the health of the insured (9 out of 12 studies).

INTERPRETATION

Increased health insurance coverage generally appears to increase access to health care facilities, improve financial protection and improve health status, although findings are not totally consistent. Understanding the drivers of differences in the outcomes of insurance reforms is critical to inform future implementations of publicly funded health insurance to achieve the broader goal of universal health coverage.

Coping with healthcare costs for chronic illness in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Experiencing illness in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) can incur very high out-of-pocket (OOP) payments for healthcare and, while the existing literature typically focuses on levels of expenditure, it rarely examines what happens when households do not have the necessary money. Some will adopt one or more 'coping strategies', such as borrowing money, perhaps at exorbitant interest rates, or selling assets, some necessary for their future income, with detrimental long-term effects. This is particularly relevant for chronic illnesses that require consistent, long-term OOP payments. We systematically review the literature on strategies for financing OOP costs of chronic illnesses in LMICs, their correlates and their impacts on households.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EconLit, EMBASE, Global Health and Scopus on 22 October 2018 for literature published on or after 1 January 2000. We included qualitative or quantitative studies describing at least one coping strategy for chronic illness OOP payments in a LMIC context. Our narrative review follows Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses reporting guidelines.

RESULTS

Forty-seven papers were included. Studies identified coping strategies for chronic illness costs that are not traditionally addressed in financial risk protection research (eg, taking children out of school, sending them to work, reducing expenditure on food or education, quitting work to give care). Twenty studies reported socioeconomic or other correlates of coping strategies, with poorer households and those with more advanced disease more vulnerable to detrimental strategies. Only six studies (three cross-sectional and three qualitative) included evidence of impacts of coping strategies on households, including increased labour to repay debts and discontinuing treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Monitoring of financial risk protection provides an incomplete picture if it fails to capture the effect of coping strategies. This will require qualitative and longitudinal research to understand the long-term effects, especially those associated with chronic illness in LMICs.

Cost-effectiveness of physical activity interventions in adolescents: model development and illustration using two exemplar interventions

OBJECTIVE

To develop a model to assess the long-term costs and health outcomes of physical activity interventions targeting adolescents.

DESIGN

A Markov cohort simulation model was constructed with the intention of being capable of estimating long-term costs and health impacts of changes in activity levels during adolescence. The model parameters were informed by published literature and the analysis took a National Health Service perspective over a lifetime horizon. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken.

SETTING

School and community.

PARTICIPANTS

A hypothetical cohort of adolescents aged 16 years at baseline.

INTERVENTIONS

Two exemplar school-based: a comparatively simple, after-school intervention and a more complex multicomponent intervention compared with usual care.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio as measured by cost per quality-adjusted life year gained.

RESULTS

The model gave plausible estimates of the long-term effect of changes in physical activity. The use of two exemplar interventions suggests that the model could potentially be used to evaluate a number of different physical activity interventions in adolescents. The key model driver was the degree to which intervention effects were maintained over time.

CONCLUSIONS

The model developed here has the potential to assess long-term value for money of physical activity interventions in adolescents. The two applications of the model indicate that complex interventions may not necessarily be the ones considered the most cost-effective when longer-term costs and consequences are taken into account.

Can economic indicators predict infectious disease spread? A cross-country panel analysis of 13 European countries

Aims: It is unclear how economic factors impact on the epidemiology of infectious disease. We evaluated the relationship between incidence of selected infectious diseases and economic factors, including economic downturn, in 13 European countries between 1970 and 2010. Methods: Data were obtained from national communicable disease surveillance centres. Negative binomial forms of the generalised additive model (GAM) and the generalised linear model were tested to see which best reflected transmission dynamics of: diphtheria, pertussis, measles, meningococcal disease, hepatitis B, gonorrhoea, syphilis, hepatitis A and salmonella. Economic indicators were gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc), unemployment rates and (economic) downturn. Results: GAM models produced the best goodness-of-fit results. The relationship between GDPpc and disease incidence was often non-linear. Strength and directions of association between population age, tertiary education levels, GDPpc and unemployment were disease dependent. Overdispersion for almost all diseases validated the assumption of a negative binomial relationship. Downturns were not independently linked to disease incidence. Conclusions: Social and economic factors can be correlated with many infections. However, the trend is not always in the same direction, and these associations are often non-linear. Economic downturn or recessions as indicators of increased disease risk may be better replaced by GDPpc or unemployment measures.

The impact of diabetes on labour market outcomes in Mexico: A panel data and biomarker analysis

Recent evidence for Mexico suggests important differences in health status between people with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes. However, there is at best scarce evidence on the economic consequences of diabetes, especially in contexts where the condition often remains undiagnosed, as is typically the case in low- and middle income countries. Using Mexican longitudinal and biomarker data we estimated the relationship between diabetes, as well as its time since diagnosis, and employment probabilities, wages and working hours. We further explored how these relationships differ for those with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes. For the longitudinal analyses, nationally representative data from 11995 men and 13858 women 15-64 years old were taken from three waves (2002, 2005, 2009) of the Mexican Family Life Survey. We estimated a fixed effects model to account for unmeasured time-invariant confounders of diabetes. We found a reduction in the probability of being employed of 7.7 and 6.3 percentage points for men and women, respectively, but no significant relationship with hours worked or wages. Employment probabilities fell gradually with each year since diagnosis for men but not for women. Using cross-sectional biomarker data, our results indicate that 68% of those exhibiting glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels above the clinical diabetes threshold did not self-report a diagnosis, hence were undiagnosed. Nevertheless, regression analysis revealed that there was no association of diabetes with labour outcomes for undiagnosed women or men. This suggests that results based on self-reported diabetes cannot be extended to the (rather large) part of the population with undiagnosed diabetes, likely because of a selection of people in worse health and with a longer diabetes duration into the diagnosed population. Earlier diagnosis and improved treatment of diabetes therefore may prevent adverse health effects and related economic hardship.

Introducing physically active lessons in UK secondary schools: feasibility study and pilot cluster-randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

Assess feasibility, acceptability and costs of delivering a physically active lessons (PAL) training programme to secondary school teachers and explore preliminary effectiveness for reducing pupils' sedentary time.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Secondary schools in East England; one school participated in a pre-post feasibility study, two in a pilot cluster-randomised controlled trial. In the pilot trial, blinding to group assignment was not possible.

PARTICIPANTS

Across studies, 321 randomly selected students (51% male; mean age: 12.9 years), 78 teachers (35% male) and 2 assistant head teachers enrolled; 296 (92%) students, 69 (88%) teachers and 2 assistant head teachers completed the studies.

INTERVENTION

PAL training was delivered to teachers over two after-school sessions. Teachers were made aware of how to integrate movement into lessons; strategies included students collecting data from the environment for class activities and completing activities posted on classroom walls, instead of sitting at desks.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

Quantitative and qualitative data were collected to assess feasibility and acceptability of PAL training and delivery. Outcomes were assessed at baseline and ~8 weeks post-training; measures included accelerometer-assessed activity, self-reported well-being and observations of time-on-task. Process evaluation was conducted at follow-up.

RESULTS

In the feasibility study, teachers reported good acceptability of PAL training and mixed experiences of delivering PAL. In the pilot study, teachers' acceptability of training was lower and teachers identified aspects of the training in need of review, including the outdoor PAL training and learning challenge of PAL strategies. In both studies, students and assistant head teachers reported good acceptability of the intervention. Preliminary effectiveness for reducing students' sedentary time was not demonstrated in either study.

CONCLUSIONS

No evidence of preliminary effectiveness on the primary outcome and mixed reports of teachers' acceptability of PAL training suggest the need to review the training. The results do not support continuation of research with the current intervention.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN38409550.

Does austerity really kill?

A growing body of the literature has argued that austerity has been bad for health, though without directly measuring austerity. This paper explicitly distinguishes the association of mortality with macroeconomic fluctuations from that with fiscal policy measures, using data for 28 European Union (EU) countries covering the period 1991-2013. The main results present a nuanced, complex picture about the mortality impact of fiscal policies. We confirm the mortality decreasing (increasing) effect of recessions (booms), with the exception of suicide mortality, which shows the opposite effects. Austerity regimes are associated with an increase in all-cause mortality (0.7%). At the same time, fiscal stimuli tend to significantly increase death rates due to cirrhosis or chronic liver disease (3%) and those due to vehicle accidents (4.3%). Our results are sensitive to the set of countries included: when excluding the Baltics, Romania and Hungary, austerity policies turn out to significantly increase suicide-related mortality (2.8%), while the effect on all-cause mortality remains unaffected (0.7%). Overall, however it appears that the austerity-increasing effects are mostly compensated by the (mostly) mortality-decreasing effects of recessions. A notable exception appears to be suicides, which receive a 'double-boost' from both recessions and austerity.

Assessing the impact of the Barbados sugar-sweetened beverage tax on beverage sales: an observational study

Background

The World Health Organization has advocated for sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes as part of a broader non-communicable disease prevention strategy, and these taxes have been recently introduced in a wide range of settings. However, much is still unknown about how SSB taxes operate in various contexts and as a result of different tax designs. In 2015, the Government of Barbados implemented a 10% ad valorem (value-based) tax on SSBs. It has been hypothesized that this tax structure may inadvertently encourage consumers to switch to cheaper sugary drinks. We aimed to assess whether and to what extent there has been a change in sales of SSBs following implementation of the SSB tax.

Methods

We used electronic point of sale data from a major grocery store chain and applied an interrupted time series (ITS) design to assess grocery store SSB and non-SSB sales from January 2013 to October 2016. We controlled for the underlying time trend, seasonality, inflation, tourism and holidays. We conducted sensitivity analyses using a cross-country control (Trinidad and Tobago) and a within-country control (vinegar). We included a post-hoc stratification by price tertile to assess the extent to which consumers may switch to cheaper sugary drinks.

Results

We found that average weekly sales of SSBs decreased by 4.3% (95%CI 3.6 to 4.9%) compared to expected sales without a tax, primarily driven by a decrease in carbonated SSBs sales of 3.6% (95%CI 2.9 to 4.4%). Sales of non-SSBs increased by 5.2% (95%CI 4.5 to 5.9%), with bottled water sales increasing by an average of 7.5% (95%CI 6.5 to 8.3%). The sensitivity analyses were consistent with the uncontrolled results. After stratifying by price, we found evidence of substitution to cheaper SSBs.

Conclusions

This study suggests that the Barbados SSB tax was associated with decreased sales of SSBs in a major grocery store chain after controlling for underlying trends. This finding was robust to sensitivity analyses. We found evidence to suggest that consumers may have changed their behaviour in response to the tax by purchasing cheaper sugary drinks, in addition to substituting to untaxed products. This has important implications for the design of future SSB taxes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12966-019-0776-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evaluating the 2014 sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Chile: An observational study in urban areas

BACKGROUND

In October 2014, Chile implemented a tax modification on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) called the Impuesto Adicional a las Bebidas Analcohólicas (IABA). The design of the tax was unique, increasing the tax on soft drinks above 6.25 grams of added sugar per 100 mL and decreasing the tax for those below this threshold.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This study evaluates Chile's SSB tax, which was announced in March 2014 and implemented in October 2014. We used household-level grocery-purchasing data from 2011 to 2015 for 2,836 households living in cities representative of the urban population of Chile. We employed a fixed-effects econometric approach and estimated the before-after change in purchasing of SSBs controlling for seasonality, general time trend, temperature, and economic fluctuations as well as time-invariant household characteristics. Results showed significant changes in purchasing for the statistically preferred model: while there was a barely significant decrease in the volume of all soft drinks, there was a highly significant decrease in the monthly purchased volume of the higher-taxed, sugary soft drinks by 21.6%. The direction of this reduction was robust to different empirical modelling approaches, but the statistical significance and the magnitude of the changes varied considerably. The reduction in soft drink purchasing was most evident amongst higher socioeconomic groups and higher pretax purchasers of sugary soft drinks. There was no systematic, robust pattern in the estimates by household obesity status. After tax implementation, the purchase prices of soft drinks decreased for the items for which the tax rate was reduced, but they remained unchanged for sugary items, for which the tax was increased. However, the purchase prices increased for sugary soft drinks at the time of the policy announcement. The main limitations include a lack of a randomised design, limiting the extent of causal inference possible, and the focus on purchasing data rather than consumption or health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of subgroup analyses suggest that the policy may have been partially effective, though not necessarily in ways that are likely to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in diet-related health. It remains unclear whether the policy has had a major, overall population-level impact. Additionally, because the present study examined purchasing of soft drinks for only 1 year, a longer-term evaluation-ideally including an assessment of consumption and health impacts-should be conducted in future research.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02926001.

Equity impacts of price policies to promote healthy behaviours

Governments can use fiscal policies to regulate the prices and consumption of potentially unhealthy products. However, policies aimed at reducing consumption by increasing prices, for example by taxation, might impose an unfair financial burden on low-income households. We used data from household expenditure surveys to estimate patterns of expenditure on potentially unhealthy products by socioeconomic status, with a primary focus on low-income and middle-income countries. Price policies affect the consumption and expenditure of a larger number of high-income households than low-income households, and any resulting price increases tend to be financed disproportionately by high-income households. As a share of all household consumption, however, price increases are often a larger financial burden for low-income households than for high-income households, most consistently in the case of tobacco, depending on how much consumption decreases in response to increased prices. Large health benefits often accrue to individual low-income consumers because of their strong response to price changes. The potentially larger financial burden on low-income households created by taxation could be mitigated by a pro-poor use of the generated tax revenues.

Multimorbidity and out-of-pocket expenditure on medicines: a systematic review

Background

Multimorbidity, the presence of two or more non-communicable diseases (NCD), is a costly and complex challenge for health systems globally. Patients with NCDs incur high levels of out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE), often on medicines, but the literature on the association between OOPE on medicines and multimorbidity has not been examined systematically.

Methods

A systematic review was conducted via searching medical and economics databases including Ovid Medline, EMBASE, EconLit, Cochrane Library and the WHO Global Health Library from year 2000 to 2016. Study quality was assessed using Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. PROSPERO: CRD42016053538.

Findings

14 articles met inclusion criteria. Findings indicated that multimorbidity was associated with higher OOPE on medicines. When number of NCDs increased from 0 to 1, 2 and ≥3, annual OOPE on medicines increased by an average of 2.7 times, 5.2 times and 10.1 times, respectively. When number of NCDs increased from 0 to 1, 2, ≥2 and ≥3, individuals spent a median of 0.36% (IQR 0.15%–0.51%), 1.15% (IQR 0.62%–1.64%), 1.41% (IQR 0.86%–2.15%), 2.42% (IQR 2.05%–2.64%) and 2.63% (IQR 1.56%–4.13%) of mean annual household net adjusted disposable income per capita, respectively, on annual OOPE on medicines. More multimorbidities were associated with higher OOPE on medicines as a proportion of total healthcare expenditures by patients. Some evidence suggested that the elderly and low-income groups were most vulnerable to higher OOPE on medicines. With the same number of NCDs, certain combinations of NCDs yielded higher medicine OOPE. Non-adherence to medicines was a coping strategy for OOPE on medicines.

Conclusion

Multimorbidity of NCDs is increasingly costly to healthcare systems and OOPE on medicines can severely compromise financial protection and universal health coverage. It is crucial to recognise the need for better equity and financial protection, and policymakers should consider health system financial options, cost sharing policies and service patterns for those with NCD multimorbidities.

Does greater individual social capital improve the management of hypertension? Cross-national analysis of 61 229 individuals in 21 countries

Introduction

Social capital, characterised by trust, reciprocity and cooperation, is positively associated with a number of health outcomes. We test the hypothesis that among hypertensive individuals, those with greater social capital are more likely to have their hypertension detected, treated and controlled.

Methods

Cross-sectional data from 21 countries in the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology study were collected covering 61 229 hypertensive individuals aged 35–70 years, their households and the 656 communities in which they live. Outcomes include whether hypertensive participants have their condition detected, treated and/or controlled. Multivariate statistical models adjusting for community fixed effects were used to assess the associations of three social capital measures: (1) membership of any social organisation, (2) trust in other people and (3) trust in organisations, stratified into high-income and low-income country samples.

Results

In low-income countries, membership of any social organisation was associated with a 3% greater likelihood of having one’s hypertension detected and controlled, while greater trust in organisations significantly increased the likelihood of detection by 4%. These associations were not observed among participants in high-income countries.

Conclusion

Although the observed associations are modest, some aspects of social capital are associated with better management of hypertension in low-income countries where health systems are often weak. Given that hypertension affects millions in these countries, even modest gains at all points along the treatment pathway could improve management for many, and translate into the prevention of thousands of cardiovascular events each year.

Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis of Brief Interventions to Promote Physical Activity in Primary Care

BACKGROUND

Brief interventions (BIs) delivered in primary care have shown potential to increase physical activity levels and may be cost-effective, at least in the short-term, when compared with usual care. Nevertheless, there is limited evidence on their longer term costs and health benefits.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of BIs to promote physical activity in primary care and to guide future research priorities using value of information analysis.

METHODS

A decision model was used to compare the cost-effectiveness of three classes of BIs that have been used, or could be used, to promote physical activity in primary care: 1) pedometer interventions, 2) advice/counseling on physical activity, and (3) action planning interventions. Published risk equations and data from the available literature or routine data sources were used to inform model parameters. Uncertainty was investigated with probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and value of information analysis was conducted to estimate the value of undertaking further research.

RESULTS

In the base-case, pedometer interventions yielded the highest expected net benefit at a willingness to pay of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. There was, however, a great deal of decision uncertainty: the expected value of perfect information surrounding the decision problem for the National Health Service Health Check population was estimated at £1.85 billion.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis suggests that the use of pedometer BIs is the most cost-effective strategy to promote physical activity in primary care, and that there is potential value in further research into the cost-effectiveness of brief (i.e., <30 minutes) and very brief (i.e., <5 minutes) pedometer interventions in this setting.

Soft drink prices, sales, body mass index and diabetes: Evidence from a panel of low-, middle- and high-income countries

We take advantage of four different cross-country datasets containing data on 78 countries for the period 1999-2014, in order to assess the relationship of carbonated soft drinks' sales, as well as their prices, with body mass index (BMI), overweight, obesity and diabetes. Using an ecological study design and multivariate regression longitudinal estimation approaches, we find that carbonated soft drink sales were significantly positively related to BMI, overweight and obesity - but only in the low and lower-middle income countries. This finding was robust to a number of sensitivity and falsification checks. In this sub-sample, an increase in per capita soft drink sales by 1 litre per year was related to an increase of BMI by about 0.009 kg/m² (p < 0.1).. This is a small effect, implying that halving annual consumption per capita in this group of countries would result in a drop of BMI by only about 0.03 kg/m². Although soft drink prices were negatively related to weight-related outcomes in the sample of higher middle income and high income countries, this finding was not robust to falsification checks. The results thus suggest that sales restrictions to steer consumers away from soft drinks could indeed have a beneficial health effects in poorer countries, although the effect magnitude appears to be very small. However, given potential limitations of using ecological research design, results from individual level studies would be required to further ascertain the role of soft drink sales and prices in obesity and diabetes.