Rethinking ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change

Mediterranean octocoral populations exposed to marine heatwaves are less resilient to disturbances

The effects of climate change are now more pervasive than ever. Marine ecosystems have been particularly impacted by climate change, with marine heatwaves (MHWs) being a strong driver of mass mortality events. Even in the most optimistic greenhouse gas emission scenarios, MHWs will continue to increase in frequency, intensity and duration. For this reason, understanding the resilience of marine species to the increase of MHWs is crucial to predicting their viability under future climatic conditions. In this study, we explored the consequences of MHWs on the resilience (the ability of a population to resist and recover after a disturbance) of a Mediterranean key octocoral species, Paramuricea clavata, to further disturbances to their population structure. To quantify P. clavata's capacity to resist and recover from future disturbances, we used demographic information collected from 1999 to 2022, from two different sites in the NW Mediterranean Sea to calculate the transient dynamics of their populations. Our results showed that the differences in the dynamics of populations exposed and those not exposed to MHWs were driven mostly by differences in mean survivorship and growth. We also showed that after MHWs P. clavata populations had lower resistance and slower rates of recovery than those not exposed to MHWs. Populations exposed to MHWs had lower resistance elasticity to most demographic processes compared to unexposed populations. In contrast, the only demographic process showing some differences when comparing the speed of recovery elasticity values between populations exposed and unexposed to MHWs was stasis. Finally, under scenarios of increasing frequency of MHWs, the extinction of P. clavata populations will accelerate and their capacity to resist and recover after further disturbances will be hampered. Overall, these findings confirm that future climatic conditions will make octocoral populations even more vulnerable to further disturbances. These results highlight the importance of limiting local impacts on marine ecosystems to dampen the consequences of climate change.

When resilience is not enough: 2022 extreme marine heatwave threatens climatic refugia for a habitat-forming Mediterranean octocoral

Climate change is impacting ecosystems worldwide, and the Mediterranean Sea is no exception. Extreme climatic events, such as marine heat waves (MHWs), are increasing in frequency, extent and intensity during the last decades, which has been associated with an increase in mass mortality events for multiple species. Coralligenous assemblages, where the octocoral Paramuricea clavata lives, are strongly affected by MHWs. The Medes Islands Marine Reserve (NW Mediterranean) was considered a climate refugia for P. clavata, as their populations were showing some resilience to these changing conditions. In this study, we assessed the impacts of the MHWs that occurred between 2016 and 2022 in seven shallow populations of the octocoral P. clavata from a Mediterranean Marine Protected Area. The years that the mortality rates increased significantly were associated with the ones with strong MHWs, 2022 being the one with higher mortalities. In 2022, with 50 MHW days, the proportion of total affected colonies was almost 70%, with a proportion of the injured surface of almost 40%, reaching levels never attained in our study site since the monitoring was started. We also found spatial variability between the monitored populations. Whereas few of them showed low levels of mortality, others lost around 75% of their biomass. The significant impacts documented here raise concerns about the future of shallow P. clavata populations across the Mediterranean, suggesting that the resilience of this species may not be maintained to sustain these populations face the ongoing warming trends.

Intra- and interspecific diversity in a tropical plant clade alter herbivory and ecosystem resilience

Declines in biodiversity generated by anthropogenic stressors at both species and population levels can alter emergent processes instrumental to ecosystem function and resilience. As such, understanding the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function and its response to climate perturbation is increasingly important, especially in tropical systems where responses to changes in biodiversity are less predictable and more challenging to assess experimentally. Using large-scale transplant experiments conducted at five neotropical sites, we documented the impacts of changes in intraspecific and interspecific plant richness in the genus Piper on insect herbivory, insect richness, and ecosystem resilience to perturbations in water availability. We found that reductions of both intraspecific and interspecific Piper diversity had measurable and site-specific effects on herbivory, herbivorous insect richness, and plant mortality. The responses of these ecosystem-relevant processes to reduced intraspecific Piper richness were often similar in magnitude to the effects of reduced interspecific richness. Increased water availability reduced herbivory by 4.2% overall, and the response of herbivorous insect richness and herbivory to water availability were altered by both intra- and interspecific richness in a site-dependent manner. Our results underscore the role of intraspecific and interspecific richness as foundations of ecosystem function and the importance of community and location-specific contingencies in controlling function in complex tropical systems.

Gene expression plasticity facilitates acclimatization of a long-lived Caribbean coral across divergent reef environments

Local adaptation can increase fitness under stable environmental conditions. However, in rapidly changing environments, compensatory mechanisms enabled through plasticity may better promote fitness. Climate change is causing devastating impacts on coral reefs globally and understanding the potential for adaptive and plastic responses is critical for reef management. We conducted a four-year, three-way reciprocal transplant of the Caribbean coral Siderastrea siderea across forereef, backreef, and nearshore populations in Belize to investigate the potential for environmental specialization versus plasticity in this species. Corals maintained high survival within forereef and backreef environments, but transplantation to nearshore environments resulted in high mortality, suggesting that nearshore environments present strong environmental selection. Only forereef-sourced corals demonstrated evidence of environmental specialization, exhibiting the highest growth in the forereef. Gene expression profiling 3.5 years post-transplantation revealed that transplanted coral hosts exhibited profiles more similar to other corals in the same reef environment, regardless of their source location, suggesting that transcriptome plasticity facilitates acclimatization to environmental change in S. siderea. In contrast, algal symbiont (Cladocopium goreaui) gene expression showcased functional variation between source locations that was maintained post-transplantation. Our findings suggest limited acclimatory capacity of some S. siderea populations under strong environmental selection and highlight the potential limits of coral physiological plasticity in reef restoration.

Temperature and local anthropogenic pressures limit stony coral assemblage viability in southeast Florida

Climate change is viewed as the primary threat to coral reefs, with local pressures exacerbating coral cover decline. The consensus is that improving water quality may increase resilience, but disentangling water quality and temperature impacts is difficult. We used distance-based linear models and random forests to analyze spatiotemporal variation in benthic community structure and interannual changes in the coral assemblage, in relation to specific environmental metrics in Southeast Florida. Temperature accounted for most of the variation, recruitment doubled and interannual increases in coral abundance tripled when mean annual temperature reached 27 °C, until maximum temperatures exceeded 31 °C. Benefits associated with warmer temperatures were negated by poor water quality, as nutrient enrichment was related to increased macroalgal cover, reduced coral recruitment and higher coral partial mortality. We suggest reducing local pressures will contribute to reduced macroalgae and enhance coral recovery, but that temperature is the predominant influence on coral assemblages.

Merging trait-based ecology and regime shift theory to anticipate community responses to warming

Anthropogenic warming is altering species abundance, distribution, physiology, and more. How changes observed at the species level alter emergent community properties is an active and urgent area of research. Trait-based ecology and regime shift theory provide complementary ways to understand climate change impacts on communities, but these two bodies of work are only rarely integrated. Lack of integration handicaps our ability to understand community responses to warming, at a time when such understanding is critical. Therefore, we advocate for merging trait-based ecology with regime shift theory. We propose a general set of principles to guide this merger and apply these principles to research on marine communities in the rapidly warming North Atlantic. In our example, combining trait distribution and regime shift analyses at the community level yields greater insight than either alone. Looking forward, we identify a clear need for expanding quantitative approaches to collecting and merging trait-based and resilience metrics in order to advance our understanding of climate-driven community change.

Ecosystem Resilience of a South African Mesic Grassland with Change from Rotational to Continuous Grazing

Grazing practices affect the soil and vegetation of grasslands, which further influence the provision of ecosystem services and the productivity of grasslands. We determined the ecosystem resilience of a mesic grassland under three grazing management systems in the Pakkies area, (30°33'08''S, 29°25'22'' E), South Africa: cooperative (continuously grazed since 2017), commercial (rotationally grazed for >20 years), and communal (continuously grazed for >20 years) farms. This was carried out by measuring the penetration resistance and infiltration, soil nutrients, forage quality contents for livestock, veld condition, plant species composition and richness, and functional diversity. The soils had a higher penetration resistance in the continuously grazed communal farm, while water infiltration was highest in the continuously grazed cooperative farm. The plant species and functional diversity were greater in the rotationally grazed commercial farm than in the continuously grazed communal and cooperative farms. The continuously grazed cooperative farm had the highest veld condition score (97%), while the rotationally grazed commercial and the continuously grazed communal farms had 82% and 56% veld condition scores, respectively. The forage quality and soil nutrients were generally similar among all farms. The lower plant diversity observed with continuous grazing may indicate that the ecological system was not as resilient concerning this type of grazing. However, for forage quality, soil nutrients and veld condition, continuous grazing was resilient, which indicates that rotational grazing may not be better than continuous grazing for livestock production in this specific region. As long as a minimum level of ecological resilience can be retained, continuous grazing can sustain effective animal production, particularly for small-holder farmers.

Disturbance intensification is altering the trait composition of Caribbean reefs, locking them into a low functioning state

Anthropogenic climate change is intensifying natural disturbance regimes, which negatively affects some species, while benefiting others. This could alter the trait composition of ecological communities and influence resilience to disturbance. We investigated how the frequency and intensification of the regional storm regime (and likely other disturbances) is altering coral species composition and in turn resistance and recovery. We developed regional databases of coral cover and composition (3144 reef locations from 1970 to 2017) and of the path and strength of cyclonic storms in the region (including 10,058 unique storm-reef intersections). We found that total living coral cover declined steadily through 2017 (the median annual loss rate was ~ 0.25% per year). Our results also indicate that despite the observed increase in the intensity of Atlantic cyclonic storms, their effect on coral cover has decreased markedly. This could be due in part to selection for disturbance-resistant taxa in response to the intensifying disturbance regime. We found that storms accelerated the loss of threatened acroporid corals but had no measurable effect on the cover of more resilient "weedy" corals, thereby increasing their relative cover. Although resistance to disturbance has increased, recovery rates have slowed due to the dominance of small, slow-growing species. This feedback loop is locking coral communities into a low-functioning state dominated by weedy species with limited ecological or societal value.

Invertebrate biodiversity continues to decline in cropland

Modern agriculture has drastically changed global landscapes and introduced pressures on wildlife populations. Policy and management of agricultural systems has changed over the last 30 years, a period characterized not only by intensive agricultural practices but also by an increasing push towards sustainability. It is crucial that we understand the long-term consequences of agriculture on beneficial invertebrates and assess if policy and management approaches recently introduced are supporting their recovery. In this study, we use large citizen science datasets to derive trends in invertebrate occupancy in Great Britain between 1990 and 2019. We compare these trends between regions of no- (0%), low- (greater than 0-50%) and high-cropland (greater than 50%) cover, which includes arable and horticultural crops. Although we detect general declines, invertebrate groups are declining most strongly in high-cropland cover regions. This suggests that even in the light of improved policy and management over the last 30 years, the way we are managing cropland is failing to conserve and restore invertebrate communities. New policy-based drivers and incentives are required to support the resilience and sustainability of agricultural ecosystems. Post-Brexit changes in UK agricultural policy and reforms under the Environment Act offer opportunities to improve agricultural landscapes for the benefit of biodiversity and society.

β-diversity reveals ecological connectivity patterns underlying marine community recovery: Implications for conservation

As β-diversity can be seen as a proxy of ecological connections among species assemblages, modeling the decay of similarity in species composition at increasing distance may help elucidate spatial patterns of connectivity and local- to large-scale processes driving community assembly within a marine region. This, in turn, may provide invaluable information for setting ecologically coherent networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) in which protected communities are potentially interrelated and can mutually sustain against environmental perturbations. However, field studies investigating changes in β-diversity patterns at a range of spatial scales and in relation to disturbance are scant, limiting our understanding of how spatial ecological connections among marine communities may affect their recovery dynamics. We carried out a manipulative experiment simulating a strong physical disturbance on subtidal rocky reefs at several locations spanning >1000 km of coast in the Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea) and compared β-diversity patterns and decay of similarity with distance and time by current transport between undisturbed and experimentally disturbed macrobenthic assemblages to shed light on connectivity processes and scales involved in recovery. In contrast to the expectation that very local-scale processes, such as vegetative regrowth and larval supply from neighboring undisturbed assemblages, might be the major determinants of recovery in disturbed patches, we found that connectivity mediated by currents at larger spatial scales strongly contributed to shape community reassembly after disturbance. Across our study sites in the Adriatic Sea, β-diversity patterns suggested that additional protected sites that matched hotspots of propagule exchange could increase the complementarity and strengthen the ecological connectivity throughout the MPA network. More generally, conditional to habitat distribution and selection of sites of high conservation priority (e.g., biodiversity hotspots), setting network internode distance within 100-150 km, along with sizing no-take zones to cover at least 5 km of coast, would help enhance the potential connectivity of Mediterranean subtidal rocky reef assemblages from local to large scale. These results can help improve conservation planning to achieve the goals of promoting ecological connectivity within MPA networks and enhancing their effectiveness in protecting marine communities against rapidly increasing natural and anthropogenic disturbances.

Tipping points and interactive effects of chronic human disturbance and acute heat stress on coral diversity

Multiple anthropogenic stressors co-occur ubiquitously in natural ecosystems. However, multiple stressor studies often produce conflicting results, potentially because the nature and direction of stressor interactions depends upon the strength of the underlying stressors. Here, we first examine how coral α- and β-diversities vary across sites spanning a gradient of chronic local anthropogenic stress before and after a prolonged marine heatwave. Developing a multiple stressor framework that encompasses non-discrete stressors, we then examine interactions between the continuous and discrete stressors. We provide evidence of additive effects, antagonistic interactions (with heatwave-driven turnover in coral community composition diminishing as the continuous stressor increased), and tipping points (at which the response of coral Hill-richness to stressors changed from additive to near synergistic). We show that community-level responses to multiple stressors can vary, and even change qualitatively, with stressor intensity, underscoring the importance of examining complex, but realistic continuous stressors to understand stressor interactions and their ecological impacts.

Transformation of coral communities subjected to an unprecedented heatwave is modulated by local disturbance

Corals are imminently threatened by climate change-amplified marine heatwaves. However, how to conserve coral reefs remains unclear, since those without local anthropogenic disturbances often seem equally or more susceptible to thermal stress as impacted ones. We disentangle this apparent paradox, revealing that the relationship between reef disturbance and heatwave impacts depends upon the scale of biological organization. We show that a tropical heatwave of globally unprecedented duration (~1 year) culminated in an 89% loss of hard coral cover. At the community level, losses depended on pre-heatwave community structure, with undisturbed sites, which were dominated by competitive corals, undergoing the greatest losses. In contrast, at the species level, survivorship of individual corals typically declined as local disturbance intensified. Our study reveals both that prolonged heatwaves projected under climate change will still have winners and losers and that local disturbance can impair survival of coral species even under such extreme conditions.

Pathways of degradation in rangelands in Northern Tanzania show their loss of resistance, but potential for recovery

Semiarid rangelands are identified as at high risk of degradation due to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Through tracking timelines of degradation we aimed to identify whether degradation results from a loss of resistance to environmental shocks, or loss of recovery, both of which are important prerequisites for restoration. Here we combined extensive field surveys with remote sensing data to explore whether long-term changes in grazing potential demonstrate loss of resistance (ability to maintain function despite pressure) or loss of recovery (ability to recover following shocks). To monitor degradation, we created a bare ground index: a measure of grazeable vegetation cover visible in satellite imagery, allowing for machine learning based image classification. We found that locations that ended up the most degraded tended to decline in condition more during years of widespread degradation but maintained their recovery potential. These results suggest that resilience in rangelands is lost through declines in resistance, rather than loss of recovery potential. We show that the long-term rate of degradation correlates negatively with rainfall and positively with human population and livestock density, and conclude that sensitive land and grazing management could enable restoration of degraded landscapes, given their retained ability to recover.

Marine protected areas, marine heatwaves, and the resilience of nearshore fish communities

Anthropogenic stressors from climate change can affect individual species, community structure, and ecosystem function. Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are intense thermal anomalies where water temperature is significantly elevated for five or more days. Climate projections suggest an increase in the frequency and severity of MHWs in the coming decades. While there is evidence that marine protected areas (MPAs) may be able to buffer individual species from climate impacts, there is not sufficient evidence to support the idea that MPAs can mitigate large-scale changes in marine communities in response to MHWs. California experienced an intense MHW and subsequent El Niño Southern Oscillation event from 2014 to 2016. We sought to examine changes in rocky reef fish communities at four MPAs and associated reference sites in relation to the MHW. We observed a decline in taxonomic diversity and a profound shift in trophic diversity inside and outside MPAs following the MHW. However, MPAs seemed to dampen the loss of trophic diversity and in the four years following the MHW, taxonomic diversity recovered 75% faster in the MPAs compared to reference sites. Our results suggest that MPAs may contribute to long-term resilience of nearshore fish communities through both resistance to change and recovery from warming events.

Variations in the coral community at the high-latitude Bailong Peninsula, northern South China Sea

High-latitude coral communities have attracted much attention due to their potential as refuges during global climate change. However, this function is being constrained by the combined pressure of global climate and anthropogenic activities. To determine how the reef has developed, we conducted a long-term monitoring study on coral communities along the Bailong Peninsula in the northern South China Sea. The results showed that the distribution area of corals was 3.67 km² and that corals extended about 4.7 km along the coastline. The coral distribution pattern is scattered and uneven. Our results showed that the growth of reef-building corals and coral recruitment are improving, indicating that coral recruitment plays an important role in regulating the structure of adult coral populations and promoting the development of coral communities. Bailong Peninsula is expected to become a refuge for corals provided that human activities impacting coral restoration potential are controlled.

Interactions between two functionally distinct aquatic invertebrate herbivores complicate ecosystem- and population-level resilience

Resilience, the capacity for a system to bounce-back after a perturbation, is critical for conservation and restoration efforts. Different functional traits have differential effects on system-level resilience. We test this experimentally in a lab system consisting of algae consumed by zooplankton, snails, or both, using an eutrophication event as a perturbation. We examined seston settlement load, chlorophyll-a and ammonium concentration as gauges of resilience. We find that Daphnia magna increased our measures of resilience. But this effect is not consistent across ecosystem measures; in fact, D. magna increased the difference between disturbed and undisturbed treatments in seston settlement loads. We have some evidence of shifting reproductive strategy in response to perturbation in D. magna and in the presence of Physa sp. These shifts correspond with altered population levels in D. magna, suggesting feedback loops between the herbivore species. While these results suggest only an ambiguous connection between functional traits to ecosystem resilience, they point to the difficulties in establishing such a link: indirect effects of one species on reproduction of another and different scales of response among components of the system, are just two examples that may compromise the power of simple predictions.

Fish community structure and dynamics are insufficient to mediate coral resilience

Coral reefs are being impacted by myriad stressors leading to drastic changes to their structure and function. Fishes play essential roles in driving ecosystem processes on coral reefs but the extent to which these processes are emergent at temporal or ecosystem scales or otherwise masked by other drivers (for example, climatic events and crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) is poorly understood. Using time series data on fish community composition and coral and macroalgae percentage cover between 2006 and 2017 from 57 sites around Mo'orea, Polynesia, we found that fish community diversity predicts temporal stability in fish biomass but did not translate to temporal stability of coral cover. Furthermore, we found limited evidence of directional influence of fish on coral dynamics at temporal and ecosystem scales and no evidence that fish mediate coral recovery rate from disturbance. Our findings suggest that coral reef fisheries management will benefit from maintaining fish diversity but that this level of management is unlikely to strongly mediate coral loss or recovery over time.

Cold water and harmful algal blooms linked to coral reef collapse in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Background

With conventional coral reef conservation methods proving ineffective against intensifying climate change, efforts have focussed on augmenting coral tolerance to warmer water-the primary driver of coral declines. We document coral cover and composition in relation to sea surface temperature (SST) over 25-years, of six marginal reefs in an upwelling area of Costa Rica's Eastern Tropical Pacific.

Methods

Using reef survey data and sea surface temperature (SST) dating back over 25-years, we document coral cover and composition of six marginal reefs in an upwelling area of Costa Rica's Eastern Tropical Pacific in relation to thermal highs and lows.

Results

A ubiquitous and catastrophic coral die-off event occurred in 2009, driven by SST minima and likely by the presence of extreme harmful algal blooms. Coral cover was dramatically reduced and coral composition shifted from dominant branching Pocillopora to massive Pavona, Porites, and Gardineroseris. The lack of coral recovery in the decade since indicates a breach in ecosystem tipping-point and highlights a need for resilience-based management (RBM) and restoration. We propose a locally tailored and globally scalable approach to coral reef declines that is founded in RBM and informed by coral health dynamics.

Coral taxonomy and local stressors drive bleaching prevalence across the Hawaiian Archipelago in 2019

The Hawaiian Archipelago experienced a moderate bleaching event in 2019—the third major bleaching event over a 6-year period to impact the islands. In response, the Hawai‘i Coral Bleaching Collaborative (HCBC) conducted 2,177 coral bleaching surveys across the Hawaiian Archipelago. The HCBC was established to coordinate bleaching monitoring efforts across the state between academic institutions, non-governmental organizations, and governmental agencies to facilitate data sharing and provide management recommendations. In 2019, the goals of this unique partnership were to: 1) assess the spatial and temporal patterns of thermal stress; 2) examine taxa-level patterns in bleaching susceptibility; 3) quantify spatial variation in bleaching extent; 4) compare 2019 patterns to those of prior bleaching events; 5) identify predictors of bleaching in 2019; and 6) explore site-specific management strategies to mitigate future bleaching events. Both acute thermal stress and bleaching in 2019 were less severe overall compared to the last major marine heatwave events in 2014 and 2015. Bleaching observed was highly site- and taxon-specific, driven by the susceptibility of remaining coral assemblages whose structure was likely shaped by previous bleaching and subsequent mortality. A suite of environmental and anthropogenic predictors was significantly correlated with observed bleaching in 2019. Acute environmental stressors, such as temperature and surface light, were equally important as previous conditions (e.g. historical thermal stress and historical bleaching) in accounting for variation in bleaching during the 2019 event. We found little evidence for acclimation by reefs to thermal stress in the main Hawaiian Islands. Moreover, our findings illustrate how detrimental effects of local anthropogenic stressors, such as tourism and urban run-off, may be exacerbated under high thermal stress. In light of the forecasted increase in severity and frequency of bleaching events, future mitigation of both local and global stressors is a high priority for the future of corals in Hawai‘i.

Resilience of Avian Communities to Urbanization and Climate Change: an Integrative Review

The concept of ecological resilience is widely used to assess how species and ecosystems respond to external stressors but is applied infrequently at the level of the community or to chronic, ongoing disturbances. In this review, we first discuss the concept of ecological resilience and methods for quantifying resilience in ecological studies. We then synthesize existing evidence for the resilience of avian communities to climate change and urbanization, two chronic disturbances that are driving global biodiversity loss, and conclude with recommendations for future directions. We only briefly discuss the theoretical framework behind ecological resilience and species-specific responses to these two major disturbances, because numerous reviews already exist on these topics. Current research suggests strong heterogeneity in the responses and resilience of bird communities to urbanization and climate change, although community disassembly and reassembly is high following both disturbances. To advance our understanding of community resilience to these disturbances, we recommend five areas of future study (1) the development of a standardized, comprehensive community resilience index that incorporates both adaptive capacity and measures of functional diversity, (2) measurement/modeling of both community resistance and recovery in response to disturbance, (3) multi-scale and/or multi-taxa studies that include three-way interactions between plants, animals, and climate, (4) studies that incorporate interactions between disturbances, and (5) increased understanding of interactions between ecological resilience and socio-ecological dynamics. Advancement in these areas will enhance our ability to predict and respond to the rapidly accelerating effects of climate change and urbanization.

Assessment of Urban Ecological Resilience and Its Influencing Factors: A Case Study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration of China

Climate change and rapid urbanization bring natural and anthropogenetic disturbance to the urban ecosystem, damaging the sustainability and resilience of cities. Evaluation of urban ecological resilience and an investigation of its impact mechanisms are of great importance to sustainable urban management. Therefore, taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration (BTHUA) region in China as a study area, this study builds an evaluation index to assess urban ecological resilience and its spatial patterns with the resilience surrogate of net primary production during 2000–2020. The evaluation index is constructed from two dimensions, including the sensitivity and adaptability of urban ecosystems, to capture the two key mechanisms of resilience, namely resistance and recovery. Resilience-influencing factors including biophysical and socio-economic variables are analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. The results show that during 2000–2020, the spatial pattern of urban ecological resilience in the BTHUA is characterized by high resilience in the northwest and relatively low resilience in the southeast. High resilience areas account for 40% of the whole region, mainly contributed by Zhangjiakou and Chengde city in Hebei Province, which is consistent with the function orientation of the BTH region in its coordinated development. Along with urbanization in this region, ecological resilience decreases with increased population and increases with GDP growth; this indicates that, although population expansion uses resources, causes pollution and reduces vegetation coverage, with economic growth and technological progress, the negative ecological impact could be mitigated, and the coordinated development of social economy and ecological environment could eventually be reached. Our findings are consistent with mainstream theories examining the ecological impact of socio-economic development such as the Environmental Kuznets Curve, Porter Hypothesis, and Ecological Modernization theories, and provide significant references for future urbanization, carbon neutrality, resilience building, and urban ecological management in China.

The Morpho-Physio-Biochemical Attributes of Urban Trees for Resilience in Regional Ecosystems in Cities: A Mini-Review

Increased urbanization means human beings become the dominant species and reduction in canopy cover. Globally, urban trees grow under challenging and complex circumstances with urbanization trends of increasing anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, high temperature and drought stress. This study aims to provide a better understanding of urban trees’ morpho-physio-biochemical attributes that can support sustainable urban greening programs and urban climate change mitigation policies. Globally, urban dwellers’ population is on the rise and spreading to suburban areas over time with an increase in domestic CO2 emissions. Uncertainty and less information on urban tree diversification and resistance to abiotic stress may create deterioration of ecosystem resilience over time. This review uses general parameters for urban tree physiology studies and employs three approaches for evaluating ecosystem resilience based on urban stress resistance in relation to trees’ morphological, physiological and biochemical attributes. Due to the lack of a research model of ecosystem resilience and urban stress resistance of trees, this review demonstrates that the model concept supports future urban tree physiology research needs. In particular, it is necessary to develop integral methodologies and an urban tree research concept to assess how main and combined effects of drought and/or climate changes affect indigenous and exotic trees that are commonly grown in cities.

Functional Richness and Resilience in Coral Reef Communities

Within the Anthropocene the functional diversity of coral communities is changing rapidly, putting the resilience of many coral reef ecosystems in jeopardy. A better understanding of the relationship between coral functional diversity and reef resilience could reveal practical ways to achieve increased resilience. However, manipulating coral diversity experimentally is challenging, and consequently the links between coral functional diversity, resilience, and ecosystem functioning remain obscure. We used an ecologically detailed agent-based model to conduct a virtual experiment in which functional diversity was manipulated over the entire trait space of scleractinian corals. Using an imputed trait dataset of 798 coral species and eight key functional traits, we assembled 245 functionally distinct coral communities, which we subjected to a cyclone and bleaching event. We then measured four different aspects of their resilience and quantified for each measure the respective effect of (i) the functional richness (FRic), and (ii) community-weighted means (CWM) of four types of trait: effect, resistance, recovery, and competitive. FRic represents the volume occupied by a community in the functional space, while CWM indicates the location of the communities’ centroid in the functional space. We found a significant and positive effect of FRic on three measures of resilience: communities with higher FRic recovered surface cover faster and had more rugosity and cover 10 years after the disturbances. In contrast, the resistance of the coral community—i.e., the capacity to maintain surface cover when subjected to the disturbances—was independent of FRic and was determined primarily by the CWM of resistance traits. By analyzing community dynamics and functional trade-offs, we show that FRic increases resilience via the selection and the insurance effects due to the presence of competitive species in the functional space, i.e., those highly dominant species that contribute the most to the complexity of the habitat and recover quickly from disturbances. Building from the results of our experiment and the trait correlation analysis, we discuss the potential for FRic to serve as a proxy measure of resilience and we present a strategy that can provide direction to on-going reef restoration efforts, and pave the way for sustaining coral communities in a context of rapid global change.

Impact of marine protected areas on temporal stability of fish species diversity

Preserving biodiversity over time is a pressing challenge for conservation science. A key goal of marine protected areas (MPAs) is to maintain stability in species composition, via reduced turnover, to support ecosystem function. Yet, this stability is rarely measured directly under different levels of protection. Rather, evaluations of MPA efficacy generally consist of static measures of abundance, species richness, and biomass, and rare measures of turnover are limited to short-term studies involving pairwise (beta diversity) comparisons. Zeta diversity is a recently developed metric of turnover that allows for measurement of compositional similarity across multiple assemblages and thus provides more comprehensive estimates of turnover. We evaluated the effectiveness of MPAs at preserving fish zeta diversity across a network of marine reserves over 10 years in Batemans Marine Park, Australia. Snorkel transect surveys were conducted across multiple replicated and spatially interspersed sites to record fish species occurrence through time. Protection provided by MPAs conferred greater stability in fish species turnover. Marine protected areas had significantly shallower decline in zeta diversity compared with partially protected and unprotected areas. The retention of harvested species was four to six times greater in MPAs compared with partially protected and unprotected areas, and the stabilizing effects of protection were observable within 4 years of park implementation. Conversely, partial protection offered little to no improvement in stability, compared with unprotected areas. These findings support the efficacy of MPAs for preserving temporal fish diversity stability. The implementation of MPAs helps stabilize fish diversity and may, therefore, support biodiversity resilience under ongoing environmental change.

Elevated temperatures reduce the resilience of the Red Sea branching coral stylophora pistillata to copper pollution

Copper (Cu) is a common marine pollutant of coastal environments and can cause severe impacts on coral organisms. To date, only a few studies assessed the effects of Cu contamination in combination with elevated seawater temperatures on corals. Furthermore, experiments focusing on coral recovery during a depuration phase, and under thermal stress, are lacking. The present study investigated the physiological response of the common and thermally tolerant scleractinian coral Stylophora pistillata from the northern Red Sea to Cu contamination (2.5, 5 or 10 µg L ^- 1) in combination with thermal stress (5 °C above local ambient temperatures (26 °C)) for 23 days, and assessed the impact of elevated temperatures on its ability to recover from such pollution during a one-week depuration period. Variation in coral photo-physiological biomarkers including antioxidant defense capacity, were dose, time and temperature-dependent, and revealed additive effects of elevated temperatures. Successful recovery was achieved in ambient temperature only and was mediated by antioxidant defenses. Elevation of temperature altered the recovery dynamics during depuration, causing reduced Cu bioaccumulation and photosynthetic yield. The present study provides novel information on the effects of elevated temperature on the resilience (resistance and recovery processes) of a scleractinian coral exposed to a common marine pollutant. Our findings suggest that ocean warming may alter the resilience strategies of corals when exposed to local pollution, an impact that might have long-term consequences on the chances of survival of reefs in increasingly populated and warming coastal environments.

Contingency planning for coral reefs in the Anthropocene; The potential of reef safe havens

Reducing the global reliance on fossil fuels is essential to ensure the long-term survival of coral reefs, but until this happens, alternative tools are required to safeguard their future. One emerging tool is to locate areas where corals are surviving well despite the changing climate. Such locations include refuges, refugia, hotspots of resilience, bright spots, contemporary near-pristine reefs, and hope spots that are collectively named reef 'safe havens' in this mini-review. Safe havens have intrinsic value for reefs through services such as environmental buffering, maintaining near-pristine reef conditions, or housing corals naturally adapted to future environmental conditions. Spatial and temporal variance in physicochemical conditions and exposure to stress however preclude certainty over the ubiquitous long-term capacity of reef safe havens to maintain protective service provision. To effectively integrate reef safe havens into proactive reef management and contingency planning for climate change scenarios, thus requires an understanding of their differences, potential values, and predispositions to stress. To this purpose, I provide a high-level review on the defining characteristics of different coral reef safe havens, how they are being utilised in proactive reef management and what risk and susceptibilities they inherently have. The mini-review concludes with an outline of the potential for reef safe haven habitats to support contingency planning of coral reefs under an uncertain future from intensifying climate change.

Paleoecological Investigation of Vegetation, Climate and Fire History in, and Adjacent to, Kootenay National Park, Southeastern British Columbia, Canada

Paleoecological investigation of two montane lakes in the Kootenay region of southeast British Columbia, Canada, reveal changes in vegetation in response to climate and fire throughout the Holocene. Pollen, charcoal, and lake sediment carbon accumulation rate analyses show seven distinct zones at Marion Lake, presently in the subalpine Engelmann Spruce-Subalpine Fir (ESSF) biogeoclimatic (BEC) zone of Kootenay Valley, British Columbia. Comparison of these records to nearby Dog Lake of Kootenay National Park of Canada in the Montane Spruce (MS) BEC zone of Kootenay Valley, British Columbia reveals unique responses of ecosystems in topographically complex regions. The two most dramatic shifts in vegetation at Marion Lake occur firstly in the early Holocene/late Pleistocene in ML Zone 3 (11,010–10,180 cal. yr. B.P.) possibly reflecting Younger Dryas Chronozone cooling followed by early Holocene xerothermic warming noted by the increased presence of the dry adapted conifer, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and increasing fire frequency. The second most prominent change occurred at the transition from ML Zone 5 through 6a (∼2,500 cal. yr. B.P.). This zone transitions from a warmer to a cooler/wetter climate as indicated by the increase in western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and subsequent drop in fire frequency. The overall cooling trend and reduction in fire frequency appears to have occurred ∼700 years later than at Dog Lake (∼43 km to the south and 80 m lower in elevation), resulting in a closed montane spruce forest, whereas Marion Lake developed into a subalpine ecosystem. The temporal and ecological differences between the two study sites likely reflects the particular climate threshold needed to move these ecosystems from developed forests to subalpine conditions, as well as local site climate and fire conditions. These paleoecological records indicate future warming may result in the MS transitioning into an Interior Douglas Fir (IDF) dominated landscape, while the ESSF may become more forested, similar to the modern MS, or develop into a grassland-like landscape dependent on fire frequency. These results indicate that climate and disturbance over a regional area can dictate very different localized vegetative states. Local management implications of these dynamic landscapes will need to understand how ecosystems respond to climate and disturbance at the local or ecosystem/habitat scale.

Using Adaptive Capacity to Shift Absorptive Capacity: A Framework of Water Reallocation in Highly Modified Rivers

Damming and water regulation creates highly modified rivers with limited ecosystem integrity and resilience. This, coupled with an ongoing global biodiversity crisis, makes river restoration a priority, which requires water reallocation. Coupled human–natural systems research provides a suitable lens for integrated systems’ analysis but offers limited insight into the governance processes of water reallocation. Therefore, we propose an analytical framework, which combines insight from social–hydrological resilience and water reallocation research, and identifies the adaptive capacity in highly modified rivers as the capacity for water reallocation. We test the framework by conducting an analysis of Sweden, pre- and post-2019, a critical juncture in the governance of the country’s hydropower producing rivers. We identify a relative increase in adaptive capacity post- 2019 since water reallocation is set to occur in smaller rivers and tributaries, while leaving large-scaled rivers to enjoy limited water reallocation, or even increased allocation to hydropower. We contend that the proposed framework is broad enough to be of general interest, yet sufficiently specific to contribute to the construction of middle-range theories, which could further our understanding of why and how governance processes function, change, and lead to outcomes in terms of modified natural resource management and resilience shifts.

Native Trees as a Provider of Vital Urban Ecosystem Services in Urbanizing New Zealand: Status Quo, Challenges and Prospects

In New Zealand, over 87% of the population currently resides in cities. Urban trees can face a myriad of complex challenges including loss of green space, public health issues, and harm to the existence of urban dwellers and trees, along with domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions. Despite New Zealand being a biodiversity hotspot in terms of natural environments, there is a lack of knowledge about native tree species’ regulating service (i.e., tree development and eco-physiological responses to low air quality, GHG, rising air temperatures, and drought) and how they grow in built-up environments such as cities. Therefore, we argue for the value of these native species in terms of ecosystem services and insist that they need to be viewed in relation to how they will respond to urban abiotic extremes and climate change. We propose to diversify planted forests for several reasons: (1) to improve awareness of the benefits of diverse planted urban forests; (2) to foster native tree research in urban environments, finding new keystone species; and (3) to improve the evidence of urban ecosystem resilience based on New Zealand native trees’ regulating services. This article aims to re-evaluate our understanding of whether New Zealand’s native trees can deal with environmental stress conditions similarly to more commonly planted alien species.

Remoteness does not enhance coral reef resilience

Remote coral reefs are thought to be more resilient to climate change due to their isolation from local stressors like fishing and pollution. We tested this hypothesis by measuring the relationship between local human influence and coral community resilience. Surprisingly, we found no relationship between human influence and resistance to disturbance and some evidence that areas with greater human development may recover from disturbance faster than their more isolated counterparts. Our results suggest remote coral reefs are imperiled by climate change, like so many other geographically isolated ecosystems, and are unlikely to serve as effective biodiversity arks. Only drastic and rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions will ensure coral survival. Our results also indicate that some reefs close to large human populations were relatively resilient. Focusing research and conservation resources on these more accessible locations has the potential to provide new insights and maximize conservation outcomes.

Global patterns of resilience decline in vertebrate populations

Maintaining the resilience of natural populations, their ability to resist and recover from disturbance, is crucial to prevent biodiversity loss. However, the lack of appropriate data and quantitative tools has hampered our understanding of the factors determining resilience on a global scale. Here, we quantified the temporal trends of two key components of resilience-resistance and recovery-in >2000 population time-series of >1000 vertebrate species globally. We show that the number of threats to which a population is exposed is the main driver of resilience decline in vertebrate populations. Such declines are driven by a non-uniform loss of different components of resilience (i.e. resistance and recovery). Increased anthropogenic threats accelerating resilience loss through a decline in the recovery ability-but not resistance-of vertebrate populations. These findings suggest we may be underestimating the impacts of global change, highlighting the need to account for the multiple components of resilience in global biodiversity assessments.

Cumulative bleaching undermines systemic resilience of the Great Barrier Reef

Climate change and ENSO have triggered five mass coral bleaching events on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), three of which occurred in the last 5 years.^1-5 Here, we explore the cumulative nature of recent impacts and how they fragment the reef's connectivity. The coverage and intensity of thermal stress have increased steadily over time. Cumulative bleaching in 2016, 2017, and 2020 is predicted to have reduced systemic larval supply by 26%, 50%, and 71%, respectively. Larval disruption is patchy and can guide interventions. The majority of severely bleached reefs (75%) are predicted to have experienced an 80%-100% loss of larval supply. Yet restoration would not be cost-effective in the 2% of such reefs (∼30) that still experience high larval supply. Managing such climate change impacts will benefit from emerging theory on the facilitation of genetic adaptation,^6,7 which requires the existence of regions with predictably high or low thermal stress. We find that a third of reefs constitute warm spots that have consistently experienced bleaching stress. Moreover, 13% of the GBR are potential refugia that avoid significant warming more than expected by chance, with a modest proportion (14%) within highly protected areas. Coral connectivity is likely to become increasingly disrupted given the predicted escalation of climate-driven disturbances,⁸ but the existence of thermal refugia, potentially capable of delivering larvae to 58% of the GBR, may provide pockets of systemic resilience in the near-term. Theories of conservation planning for climate change will need to consider a shifting portfolio of thermal environments over time.

Understanding social resilience in honeybee colonies

Honeybee colonies experience high losses, induced by several stressors that can result in the collapse of colonies. Experiments show what effects stressors, such as parasites, pathogens and pesticides, can have on individual honeybees as well as colonies. Although individuals may die, colonies do not always collapse from such disturbances. As a superorganism, the colony can maintain or return back to homeostasis through colony mechanisms. This capacity is defined as social resilience. When the colony faces a high stress load, this may lead to breakdown in mechanisms, loss in resilience and eventually colony collapse. Before social resilience can be measured in honeybees, we need to examine the mechanisms in colonies that allow recovery and maintenance after stressor exposure. Here, we discuss some of these mechanisms and how they affect the social resilience of honeybee colonies. Understanding social resilience in honeybees is essential to managing colony health and loss prevention.

Heritable variation and lack of tradeoffs suggest adaptive capacity in Acropora cervicornis despite negative synergism under climate change scenarios

Knowledge of multi-stressor interactions and the potential for tradeoffs among tolerance traits is essential for developing intervention strategies for the conservation and restoration of reef ecosystems in a changing climate. Thermal extremes and acidification are two major co-occurring stresses predicted to limit the recovery of vital Caribbean reef-building corals. Here, we conducted an aquarium-based experiment to quantify the effects of increased water temperatures and pCO2 individually and in concert on 12 genotypes of the endangered branching coral Acropora cervicornis, currently being reared and outplanted for large-scale coral restoration. Quantification of 12 host, symbiont and holobiont traits throughout the two-month-long experiment showed several synergistic negative effects, where the combined stress treatment often caused a greater reduction in physiological function than the individual stressors alone. However, we found significant genetic variation for most traits and positive trait correlations among treatments indicating an apparent lack of tradeoffs, suggesting that adaptive evolution will not be constrained. Our results suggest that it may be possible to incorporate climate-resistant coral genotypes into restoration and selective breeding programmes, potentially accelerating adaptation.

Coral reefs in the Gilbert Islands of Kiribati: Resistance, resilience, and recovery after more than a decade of multiple stressors

Coral reefs are increasingly affected by a combination of acute and chronic disturbances from climate change and local stressors. The coral reefs of the Republic of Kiribati's Gilbert Islands are exposed to frequent heat stress caused by central-Pacific type El Niño events, and may provide a glimpse into the future of coral reefs in other parts of the world, where the frequency of heat stress events will likely increase due to climate change. Reefs in the Gilbert Islands experienced a series of acute disturbances over the past fifteen years, including mass coral bleaching in 2004-2005 and 2009-2010, and an outbreak of the corallivorous sea star Acanthaster cf solaris, or Crown-of-Thorns (CoTs), in 2014. The local chronic pressures including nutrient loading, sedimentation and fishing vary within the island chain, with highest pressures on the reefs in urbanized South Tarawa Atoll. In this study, we examine how recovery from acute disturbances differs across a gradient of human influence in neighboring Tarawa and Abaiang Atolls from 2012 through 2018. Benthic cover and size frequency data suggests that local coral communities have adjusted to the heat stress via shifts in the community composition to more temperature-tolerant taxa and individuals. In densely populated South Tarawa, we document a phase shift to the weedy and less bleaching-sensitive coral Porites rus, which accounted for 81% of all coral cover by 2018. By contrast, in less populated Abaiang, coral communities remained comparatively more diverse (with higher percentages of Pocillopora and the octocoral Heliopora) after the disturbances, but reefs had lower overall hard coral cover (18%) and were dominated by turf algae (41%). The CoTs outbreak caused a decline in the cover and mean size of massive Porites, the only taxa that was a 'winner' of the coral bleaching events in Abaiang. Although there are signs of recovery, the long-term trajectory of the benthic communities in Abaiang is not yet clear. We suggest three scenarios: they may remain in their current state (dominated by turf algae), undergo a phase shift to dominance by the macroalgae Halimeda, or recover to dominance by thermally tolerant hard coral genera. These findings provide a rare glimpse at the future of coral reefs around the world and the ways they may be affected by climate change, which may allow scientists to better predict how other reefs will respond to increasing heat stress events across gradients of local human disturbance.

Green electrospinning for biomaterials and biofabrication

Green manufacturing has emerged across industries, propelled by a growing awareness of the negative environmental and health impacts associated with traditional practices. In the biomaterials industry, electrospinning is a ubiquitous fabrication method for producing nano- to micro-scale fibrous meshes that resemble native tissues, but this process traditionally utilizes solvents that are environmentally hazardous and pose a significant barrier to industrial scale-up and clinical translation. Applying sustainability principles to biomaterial production, we have developed a 'green electrospinning' process by systematically testing biologically benign solvents (U.S. Food and Drug Administration Q3C Class 3), and have identified acetic acid as a green solvent that exhibits low ecological impact (global warming potential (GWP) = 1.40 CO₂eq. kg/L) and supports a stable electrospinning jet under routine fabrication conditions. By tuning electrospinning parameters, such as needle-plate distance and flow rate, we updated the fabrication of widely utilized biomedical polymers (e.g. poly-α-hydroxyesters, collagen), polymer blends, polymer-ceramic composites, and growth factor delivery systems. Resulting 'green' fibers and composites are comparable to traditional meshes in terms of composition, chemistry, architecture, mechanical properties, and biocompatibility. Interestingly, material properties of green synthetic fibers are more biomimetic than those of traditionally electrospun fibers, doubling in ductility (91.86 ± 35.65 vs. 45 ± 15.07%,n= 10,p< 0.05) without compromising yield strength (1.32 ± 0.26 vs. 1.38 ± 0.32 MPa) or ultimate tensile strength (2.49 ± 0.55 vs. 2.36 ± 0.45 MPa). Most importantly, green electrospinning proves advantageous for biofabrication, rendering a greater protection of growth factors during fiber formation (72.30 ± 1.94 vs. 62.87 ± 2.49% alpha helical content,n= 3,p< 0.05) and recapitulating native ECM mechanics in the fabrication of biopolymer-based meshes (16.57 ± 3.92% ductility, 33.38 ± 30.26 MPa elastic modulus, 1.30 ± 0.19 MPa yield strength, and 2.13 ± 0.36 MPa ultimate tensile strength,n= 10). The eco-conscious approach demonstrated here represents a paradigm shift in biofabrication, and will accelerate the translation of scalable biomaterials and biomimetic scaffolds for tissue engineering and regenerative medicine.

Using remote sensing to assess peatland resilience by estimating soil surface moisture and drought recovery

Peatland areas provide a range of ecosystem services, including biodiversity, carbon storage, clean water, and flood mitigation, but many areas of peatland in the UK have been degraded through human land use including drainage. Here, we explore whether remote sensing can be used to monitor peatland resilience to drought. We take resilience to mean the rate at which a system recovers from perturbation; here measured literally as a recovery timescale of a soil surface moisture proxy from drought lowering. Our objectives were (1) to assess the reliability of Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) backscatter as a proxy for water table depth (WTD); (2) to develop a method using SAR to estimate below-ground (hydrological) resilience of peatlands; and (3) to apply the developed method to different sites and consider the links between resilience and land management. Our inferences of WTD from Sentinel-1 SAR data gave results with an average Pearson's correlation of 0.77 when compared to measured WTD values. The 2018 summer drought was used to assess resilience across three different UK peatland areas (Dartmoor, the Peak District, and the Flow Country) by considering the timescale of the soil moisture proxy recovery. Results show clear areas of lower resilience within all three study sites, which often correspond to areas of high drainage and may be particularly vulnerable to increasing drought severity/events under climate change. This method is applicable to monitoring peatland resilience elsewhere over larger scales, and could be used to target restoration work towards the most vulnerable areas.

Comprehensive Assessment Indicator of Ecosystem Resilience in Central Asia

The ecosystems in the arid inland areas of Central Asia are fragile and severely degraded. Understanding and assessing ecosystem resilience is a challenge facing ecosystems. Based on the net primary productivity (NPP) data estimated by the CASA model, this study conducted a quantitative analysis of the ecosystem’s resilience and comprehensively reflected its resilience from multiple dimensions. Furthermore, a comprehensive resilience index was constructed. The result showed that plain oasis’s ecosystem resilience is the highest, followed by deserts and mountainous areas. From the perspective of vegetation types, the highest resilience is artificial vegetation and the lowest is forest. In warm deserts, the resilience is higher in shrubs and meadows and lower in grassland vegetation. High coverage and biomass are not the same as the strong adaptability of the ecosystem. Moderate and slightly inelastic areas mainly dominate the ecosystem resilience of the study area. The new method is easy to use. The evaluation result is reliable. It can quantitatively analyze the resilience latitude and recovery rate, a beneficial improvement to the current ecosystem resilience evaluation.

Recovery assessment of the branching coral Stylophora pistillata following copper contamination and depuration

Most contemporary coral reefs live under both global (e.g. warming and acidification) and local (e.g. overfishing, pollution) stressors, which may synergistically undermine their resilience to thermal bleaching and diseases. While heavy metal toxicity in reefs has been well characterized, information on corals recovery from acute contamination is lacking. We studied for 42 days the ability of the coral Stylophora pistillata from the Gulf of Aqaba (northern Red Sea) to recover from a short (3 days) and prolonged (14 days) copper (Cu) contamination (1 μg L^-1), after 11 ('Exp3/D11') and 28 ('Exp14/D28') days of depuration, respectively. Cu caused a decrease in chlorophyll content after 3 days, and in net photosynthesis (Pn) after 14 and 42 days. 'Exp14/D28' showed successful recovery based on Pn and relative electron transport rate, as opposed to 'Exp3/D11'. Results suggest the depuration time may be of greater importance than the exposure period to recover from such contamination.

Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea

Climate change is a global threat for marine ecosystems, their biodiversity and consequently ecosystem services. In the marine realm, marine protected areas (MPAs) were designated to counteract regional pressures, but they might be ineffective to protect vulnerable species and habitats, if their distribution is affected by global climate change. We used six Species Distribution Models (GLM, MARS, FDA, RF, GBM, MAXENT) to project changes in the distribution of eight benthic indicator and key species under climate change in the North Sea MPAs for 2050 and 2099. The projected distribution area of most species will be stable or even increase within the MPAs between 2001 and 2050. Thereafter, the distribution area decreased, especially within MPAs in the central North Sea by 2099, and some key species even disappeared from the MPAs. Consequently, the monitoring and protection of benthic species might not be possible within static MPA borders under climate change.

The timing and causality of ecological shifts on Caribbean reefs

Caribbean reefs have experienced unprecedented changes in the past four decades. Of great concern is the perceived widespread shift from coral to macroalgal dominance and the question of whether it represents a new, stable equilibrium for coral-reef communities. The primary causes of the shift-grazing pressure (top-down), nutrient loading (bottom-up) or direct coral mortality (side-in)-still remain somewhat controversial in the coral-reef literature. We have attempted to tease out the relative importance of each of these causes. Four insights emerge from our analysis of an early regional dataset of information on the benthic composition of Caribbean reefs spanning the years 1977-2001. First, although three-quarters of reef sites have experienced coral declines concomitant with macroalgal increases, fewer than 10% of the more than 200 sites studied were dominated by macroalgae in 2001, by even the most conservative definition of dominance. Using relative dominance as the threshold, a total of 49 coral-to-macroalgae shifts were detected. This total represents ~35% of all sites that were dominated by coral at the start of their monitoring periods. Four shifts (8.2%) occurred because of coral loss with no change in macroalgal cover, 15 (30.6%) occurred because of macroalgal gain without coral loss, and 30 (61.2%) occurred owing to concomitant coral decline and macroalgal increase. Second, the timing of shifts at the regional scale is most consistent with the side-in model of reef degradation, which invokes coral mortality as a precursor to macroalgal takeover, because more shifts occurred after regional coral-mortality events than expected by chance. Third, instantaneous observations taken at the start and end of the time-series for individual sites showed these reefs existed along a continuum of coral and macroalgal cover. The continuous, broadly negative relationship between coral and macroalgal cover suggests that in some cases coral-to-macroalgae phase shifts may be reversed by removing sources of perturbation or restoring critical components such as the herbivorous sea urchin Diadema antillarum to the system. The five instances in which macroalgal dominance was reversed corroborate the conclusion that macroalgal dominance is not a stable, alternative community state as has been commonly assumed. Fourth, the fact that the loss in regional coral cover and concomitant changes to the benthic community are related to punctuated, discrete events with known causes (i.e. coral disease and bleaching), lends credence to the hypothesis that coral reefs of the Caribbean have been under assault from climate-change-related maladies since the 1970s.

Coping with climate change: Three insights for research, intervention, and communication to promote adaptive coping to climate change

Climate change poses a major threat to human well-being and will be the root cause of a variety of stressors in coming decades. Psychologists have an important role to play in developing interventions and communication strategies to help people understand and cope with climate change impacts. Through a review of the literature, we identify three guiding insights for strategies to promote adaptive coping and resilience to climate change stress. First, it is unlikely that one single "correct" or "best" way of communicating about adaptive coping with climate change exists, but there are established best practices communicators can follow. Second, in implementing these best practices, practitioners must attend to the impact of variability in the nature of different kinds of stress caused by climate change, as well as individual differences in how people chronically respond to stressors. Third, because individuals, communities, and ecosystems are interconnected, work on adaptive coping to climate change must address individual coping in the context of community and ecosystem resilience. These insights from psychological science can be leveraged to promote human flourishing despite increasing stressors posed by climate change.

Vulnerability of global coral reef habitat suitability to ocean warming, acidification and eutrophication

Coral reefs are threatened by global and local stressors. Yet, reefs appear to respond differently to different environmental stressors. Using a global dataset of coral reef occurrence as a proxy for the long-term adaptation of corals to environmental conditions in combination with global environmental data, we show here how global (warming: sea surface temperature; acidification: aragonite saturation state, Ω_arag ) and local (eutrophication: nitrate concentration, and phosphate concentration) stressors influence coral reef habitat suitability. We analyse the relative distance of coral communities to their regional environmental optima. In addition, we calculate the expected change of coral reef habitat suitability across the tropics in relation to an increase of 0.1°C in temperature, an increase of 0.02 μmol/L in nitrate, an increase of 0.01 μmol/L in phosphate and a decrease of 0.04 in Ω_arag . Our findings reveal that only 6% of the reefs worldwide will be unaffected by local and global stressors and can thus act as temporary refugia. Local stressors, driven by nutrient increase, will affect 22% of the reefs worldwide, whereas global stressors will affect 11% of these reefs. The remaining 61% of the reefs will be simultaneously affected by local and global stressors. Appropriate wastewater treatments can mitigate local eutrophication and could increase areas of temporary refugia to 28%, allowing us to 'buy time', while international agreements are found to abate global stressors.

Plant biomes demonstrate that landscape resilience today is the lowest it has been since end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions

Resilient landscapes have helped maintain terrestrial biodiversity during periods of climatic and environmental change. Identifying the tempo and mode of landscape transitions and the drivers of landscape resilience is critical to maintaining natural systems and preserving biodiversity given today's rapid climate and land use changes. However, resilient landscapes are difficult to recognize on short time scales, as perturbations are challenging to quantify and ecosystem transitions are rare. Here we analyze two components of North American landscape resilience over 20,000 years: residence time and recovery time. To evaluate landscape dynamics, we use plant biomes, preserved in the fossil pollen record, to examine how long a biome type persists at a given site (residence time) and how long it takes for the biome at that site to reestablish following a transition (recovery time). Biomes have a median residence time of only 230-460 years. Only 64% of biomes recover their original biome type, but recovery time is 140-290 years. Temperatures changing faster than 0.5°C per 500 years result in much reduced residence times. Following a transition, biodiverse biomes reestablish more quickly. Landscape resilience varies through time. Notably, short residence times and long recovery times directly preceded the end-Pleistocene megafauna extinction, resulting in regional destabilization, and combining with more proximal human impacts to deliver a one-two punch to megafauna species. Our work indicates that landscapes today are once again exhibiting low resilience, foreboding potential extinctions to come. Conservation strategies focused on improving both landscape and ecosystem resilience by increasing local connectivity and targeting regions with high richness and diverse landforms can mitigate these extinction risks.

Puerto Morelos Coral Reefs, Their Current State and Classification by a Scoring System

Marine protected areas have been established as essential components for managing and protecting coral reefs to mitigate natural and anthropogenic stressors. One noteworthy example within the Mexican Caribbean is the Arrecife de Puerto Morelos National Park (APMNP), where several studies on the coral communities have been carried out since 2006. In June 2019, we conducted a study in eight sites of the APMNP applying a coral reef assessment method based on biological indicators of both the benthos and the fish communities. In this paper, we present the quantitative results of our study and provide a qualitative criterion assessing seven condition indexes through a scoring system. We also present a statistical comparison with a previous study carried out in 2016. The general status of coral reefs was classified as regular due to the low values of coral recruitment rate and biomass of key commercial fish species. However, living coral cover average was above 20%, with a slight dominance of framework building coral species and the presence of low values of fleshy algae cover, these being positive indicators. Our study found a higher proportion of reef promoter elements and a lower proportion of detractors, compared to a previous study carried out in 2016.

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.