Dissecting the null model for biological invasions: A meta-analysis of the propagule pressure effect

Invasive freshwater snails are less sensitive to population density than native conspecifics

Understanding how and why some species or lineages become invasive is critically important for effectively predicting and mitigating biological invasions. Here, we address an important unanswered question in invasion biology: do key life-history traits of invasive versus native lineages within a species differ in response to key environmental stressors? We focus on the environmental factor of population density, which is a fundamental characteristic of all populations, and investigate how changes in density affect native versus invasive Potamopyrgus antipodarum (New Zealand mudsnail). P. antipodarum has invaded 39 countries and detrimentally affects invaded environments. Previous studies of native and invasive populations and from laboratory experiments have demonstrated that growth and reproduction of P. antipodarum is sensitive to population density, though whether and how this sensitivity varies across native versus invasive lineages remains uncharacterized. We quantified individual growth rate and reproduction in P. antipodarum from multiple distinct native and invasive lineages across three different population density treatments. The growth of native but not invasive lineages decreased as density increased. There was no differential effect of density treatment on embryo production of invasive versus native snails, but a significantly higher proportion of snails were reproductive in high density compared to intermediate density for invasive lineages. In native lineages, there were no significant differences in the relative frequency of reproductive snails across density treatments. While the extent to which these results from our laboratory study can be extrapolated to the more complex natural world remain unclear, our findings are consistent with a scenario where differential sensitivity to population density could help explain why some lineages become successful invaders. Our findings also align with previous studies that show that invasive P. antipodarum lineages exhibit a relatively wide range of tolerance to environmental stressors.

Exploring the complex pre-adaptations of invasive plants to anthropogenic disturbance: a call for integration of archaeobotanical approaches

Pre-adaptation to anthropogenic disturbance is broadly considered key for plant invasion success. Nevertheless, empirical evidence remains scarce and fragmentary, given the multifaceted nature of anthropogenic disturbance itself and the complexity of other evolutionary forces shaping the (epi)-genomes of recent native and invasive plant populations. Here, we review and critically revisit the existing theory and empirical evidence in the field of evolutionary ecology and highlight novel integrative research avenues that work at the interface with archaeology to solve open questions. The approaches suggested so far focus on contemporary plant populations, although their genomes have rapidly changed since their initial introduction in response to numerous selective and stochastic forces. We elaborate that a role of pre-adaptation to anthropogenic disturbance in plant invasion success should thus additionally be validated based on the analyses of archaeobotanical remains. Such materials, in the light of detailed knowledge on past human societies could highlight fine-scale differences in the type and timing of past disturbances. We propose a combination of archaeobotanical, ancient DNA and morphometric analyses of plant macro- and microremains to assess past community composition, and species' functional traits to unravel the timing of adaptation processes, their drivers and their long-term consequences for invasive species. Although such methodologies have proven to be feasible for numerous crop plants, they have not been yet applied to wild invasive species, which opens a wide array of insights into their evolution.

A simulation study evaluating how population survival and genetic diversity in a newly established population can be affected by propagule size, extinction rates, and initial heterozygosity

The introduction and establishment of invasive species in regions outside their native range, is one of the major threats for the conservation of ecosystems, affecting native organisms and the habitat where they live in, causing substantial biological and monetary losses worldwide. Due to the impact of invasive species, it is important to understand what makes some species more invasive than others. Here, by simulating populations using a forward-in-time approach combining ecological and single polymorphic nucleotides (SNPs) we evaluated the relation between propagule size (number of individuals = 2, 10, 100, and 1,000), extinction rate (with values 2%, 5%, 10%, and 20%), and initial heterozygosity (0.1, 0.3, and 0.5) on the population survival and maintenance of the heterozygosity of a simulated invasive crab species over 30 generations assuming a single introduction. Our results revealed that simulated invasive populations with initial propagule sizes of 2-1,000 individuals experiencing a high extinction rate (10-20% per generation) were able to maintain over 50% of their initial heterozygosity during the first generations and that under scenarios with lower extinction rates invasive populations with initial propagule sizes of 10-1,000 individuals can survive up to 30 generations and maintain 60-100% of their initial heterozygosity. Our results can help other researchers better understand, how species with small propagule sizes and low heterozygosities can become successful invaders.

Population genetic insights into establishment, adaptation, and dispersal of the invasive quagga mussel across perialpine lakes

Human activities have facilitated the invasion of freshwater ecosystems by various organisms. Especially, invasive bivalves such as the quagga mussels, Dreissena bugensis, have the potential to alter ecosystem function as they heavily affect the food web. Quagga mussels occur in high abundance, have a high filtration rate, quickly spread within and between waterbodies via pelagic larvae, and colonize various substrates. They have invaded various waterbodies across the Northern Hemisphere. In Central Europe, they have invaded multiple large and deep perialpine lakes with first recordings in Lake Geneva in 2015 and 2016 in Lake Constance. In the deep perialpine lakes, quagga mussels quickly colonized the littoral zone but are also abundant deeper (>80 m), where they are often thinner and brighter shelled. We analysed 675 quagga mussels using ddRAD sequencing to gain in-depth insights into the genetic population structure of quagga mussels across Central European lakes and across various sites and depth habitats in Lake Constance. We revealed substantial genetic differentiation amongst quagga mussel populations from three unconnected lakes, and all populations showed high genetic diversity and effective population size. In Lake Constance, we detected no genetic differentiation amongst quagga mussels sampled across different sites and depth habitats. We also did not identify any convincing candidate loci evidential for adaptation along a depth gradient and a transplant experiment showed no indications of local adaptation to living in the deep based on investigating growth and survival. Hence, the shallow-water and the deep-water morphotypes seem to be a result of phenotypic plasticity rather than local adaptation to depth. In conclusion, our ddRAD approach revealed insight into the establishment of genetically distinct quagga mussel populations in three perialpine lakes and suggests that phenotypic plasticity and life history traits (broadcast spawner with high fecundity and dispersing pelagic larvae) facilitate the fast spread and colonization of various depth habitats by the quagga mussel.

Quantifying global colonization pressures of alien vertebrates from wildlife trade

The global trade in live wildlife elevates the risk of biological invasions by increasing colonization pressure (the number of alien species introduced to an area). Yet, our understanding of species traded as aliens remains limited. We created a comprehensive global database on live terrestrial vertebrate trade and use it to investigate the number of traded alien species, and correlates of establishment richness for aliens. We identify 7,780 species involved in this trade globally. Approximately 85.7% of these species are traded as aliens, and 12.2% of aliens establish populations. Countries with greater trading power, higher incomes, and larger human populations import more alien species. These countries, along with island nations, emerge as hotspots for establishment richness of aliens. Colonization pressure and insularity consistently promote establishment richness across countries, while socio-economic factors impact specific taxa. Governments must prioritize policies to mitigate the release or escape of traded animals and protect global biosecurity.

Managing the risk of biological invasions

The large environmental impacts and enormous economic costs caused by biological invasions provide a strong impetus for managing invasion risks. Understanding the factors driving the invasion process and their consequences will raise awareness of invasions among the general public, stakeholders, and policymakers and inform effective management strategies. The identification of priority species and introduction pathways and sites and the development of national capabilities for prevention and preparedness, early detection, monitoring, and rapid response will reduce the impacts of invasive species in terms of effectiveness and cost efficiency.

Concurrent invasions of European starlings in Australia and North America reveal population-specific differentiation in shared genomic regions

A species' success during the invasion of new areas hinges on an interplay between the demographic processes common to invasions and the specific ecological context of the novel environment. Evolutionary genetic studies of invasive species can investigate how genetic bottlenecks and ecological conditions shape genetic variation in invasions, and our study pairs two invasive populations that are hypothesized to be from the same source population to compare how each population evolved during and after introduction. Invasive European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) established populations in both Australia and North America in the 19th century. Here, we compare whole-genome sequences among native and independently introduced European starling populations to determine how demographic processes interact with rapid evolution to generate similar genetic patterns in these recent and replicated invasions. Demographic models indicate that both invasive populations experienced genetic bottlenecks as expected based on invasion history, and we find that specific genomic regions have differentiated even on this short evolutionary timescale. Despite genetic bottlenecks, we suggest that genetic drift alone cannot explain differentiation in at least two of these regions. The demographic boom intrinsic to many invasions as well as potential inversions may have led to high population-specific differentiation, although the patterns of genetic variation are also consistent with the hypothesis that this infamous and highly mobile invader adapted to novel selection (e.g., extrinsic factors). We use targeted sampling of replicated invasions to identify and evaluate support for multiple, interacting evolutionary mechanisms that lead to differentiation during the invasion process.

Genomic adaptive potential to cold environments in the invasive red swamp crayfish

Biological invasion refers to the introduction, spread, and establishment of non-native species in a novel habitat. The ways in which invasive species successfully colonize new and different environments remain a fundamental topic of research in ecology and evolutionary biology. Here, we investigated the genomic and transcriptomic characteristics of the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), a widespread invader in freshwater environments. Targeting a recently colonized population in Sapporo, Japan that appears to have acquired a high degree of cold tolerance, RNA-seq analysis revealed differentially expressed genes in response to cold exposure, and those involved in protease inhibitors and cuticle development were considered top candidates. We also found remarkable duplications for these gene families during evolution and their concerted expression patterns, suggesting functional amplification against low temperatures. Our study thus provides clues to the unique genetic characteristics of P. clarkii, possibly related to cold adaptation.

Effects of Temperature on the Developmental and Reproductive Biology of North American Bean Thrips, Caliothrips fasciatus (Pergande) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae: Panchaetothripinae)

North American bean thrips, Caliothrips fasciatus, native to California U.S., has been detected inside the navels of navel oranges exported from California for more than 120 years. Despite this long history of accidental movement into new areas, this thrips has failed to establish populations outside of its native range. The cold accumulation hypothesis postulates that increasing levels of cold stress experienced by thrips overwintering inside navels is compounded when harvested fruit is shipped under cold storage conditions. Consequently, the fitness of surviving thrips is compromised, which greatly diminishes invasion potential. At the time this study was conducted, the effects of temperature on C. fasciatus fitness were unknown. To address this shortcoming, the effects of nine fluctuating temperatures that averaged 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 32, 35, and 37 °C over a 24 h period on the developmental and reproductive biology of C. fasciatus were evaluated. One linear and five nonlinear regression functions were fit to egg-to-adult development rate data for parent and offspring thrips to characterize thermal performance curves. Estimates of minimum, optimal, and maximum temperature thresholds for development were in the ranges of -4.37-6.52 °C (i.e., T_min), 31.19-32.52 °C (i.e., T_opt), and 35.07-37.98 °C (i.e., T_max), respectively. Degree day accumulation to complete development, estimated from linear regression, ranged 370.37-384.61. Average development times for eggs, first and second instar larvae, propupae, pupae, and adult longevity, and mean lifetime fecundity of females were significantly affected by temperature. These biological responses to temperature may provide insight into how this abiotic variable affects the invasion potential of C. fasciatus.

Invasive alien insects represent a clear but variable threat to biodiversity

Invasive alien insects are an important yet understudied component of the general threat that biological invasions pose to biodiversity. We quantified the breadth and level of this threat by performing environmental impact assessments using a modified version of the Environmental Impact Assessment for Alien Taxa (EICAT) framework. This represents the largest effort to date on quantify the environmental impacts of invasive alien insects. Using a relatively large and taxonomically representative set of insect species that have established non-native populations around the globe, we tested hypotheses on: (1) socioeconomic and (2) taxonomic biases, (3) relationship between range size and impact severity and (4) island susceptibility. Socioeconomic pests had marginally more environmental impact information than non-pests and, as expected, impact information was geographically and taxonomically skewed. Species with larger introduced ranges were more likely, on average, to have the most severe local environmental impacts (i.e. a global maximum impact severity of 'Major'). The island susceptibility hypothesis found no support, and both island and mainland systems experience similar numbers of high severity impacts. These results demonstrate the high variability, both within and across species, in the ways and extents to which invasive insects impact biodiversity, even within the highest profile invaders. However, the environmental impact knowledge base requires greater taxonomic and geographic coverage, so that hypotheses about invasion impact can be developed towards identifying generalities in the biogeography of invasion impacts.

Alien species and climate change drive shifts in a riverine fish community and trait compositions over 35 years

Alien fish substantially impact aquatic communities. However, their effects on trait composition remain poorly understood, especially at large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used long-term biomonitoring data (1984-2018) from 31 fish communities of the Rhine river in Germany to investigate compositional and functional changes over time. Average total community richness increased by 49 %: it was stable until 2004, then declined until 2010, before increasing until 2018. Average abundance decreased by 9 %. Starting from 198 individuals/m² in 1984 abundance largely declined to 23 individuals/m² in 2010 (-88 %), and then consequently increased by 678 % up to 180 individuals/m² until 2018. Increases in abundance and richness starting around 2010 were mainly driven by the establishment of alien species: while alien species represented 5 % of all species and 0.1 % of total individuals in 1993, it increased to 30 % (7 species) and 32 % of individuals in 2018. Concomitant to the increase in alien species, average native species richness and abundance declined by 26 % and 50 % respectively. We identified increases in temperature, precipitation, abundance and richness of alien fish driving compositional changes after 2010. To get more insights on the impacts of alien species on fish communities, we used 12 biological and 13 ecological traits to compute four trait metrics each. Ecological trait dispersion increased before 2010, probably due to diminishing ecologically similar native species. No changes in trait metrics were measured after 2010, albeit relative shares of expressed trait modalities significantly changing. The observed shift in trait modalities suggested the introduction of new species carrying similar and novel trait modalities. Our results revealed significant changes in taxonomic and trait compositions following alien fish introductions and climatic change. To conclude, our analyses show taxonomic and functional changes in the Rhine river over 35 years, likely indicative of future changes in ecosystem services.

Temporary establishment of bacteria from indoor plant leaves and soil on human skin

BACKGROUND

Plants are found in a large percentage of indoor environments, yet the potential for bacteria associated with indoor plant leaves and soil to colonize human skin remains unclear. We report results of experiments in a controlled climate chamber to characterize bacterial communities inhabiting the substrates and leaves of five indoor plant species, and quantify microbial transfer dynamics and residence times on human skin following simulated touch contact events. Controlled bacterial propagule transfer events with soil and leaf donors were applied to the arms of human occupants and repeatedly measured over a 24-h period using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing.

RESULTS

Substrate samples had greater biomass and alpha diversity compared to leaves and baseline skin bacterial communities, as well as dissimilar taxonomic compositions. Despite these differences in donor community diversity and biomass, we observed repeatable patterns in the dynamics of transfer events. Recipient human skin bacterial communities increased in alpha diversity and became more similar to donor communities, an effect which, for soil contact only, persisted for at least 24 h. Washing with soap and water effectively returned communities to their pre-perturbed state, although some abundant soil taxa resisted removal through washing.

CONCLUSIONS

This study represents an initial characterization of bacterial relationships between humans and indoor plants, which represent a potentially valuable element of biodiversity in the built environment. Although environmental microbiota are unlikely to permanently colonize skin following a single contact event, repeated or continuous exposures to indoor biodiversity may be increasingly relevant for the functioning and diversity of the human microbiome as urbanization continues.

Cryptic lineages and standing genetic variation across independent cane toad introductions

Widespread introduced species can be leveraged to investigate the genetic, ecological and adaptive processes underlying rapid evolution and range expansion, particularly the contributions of genetic diversity to adaptation. Rhinella marina, the cane toad, has been a focus of invasion biology for decades in Australia. However, their introduction history in North America is less clear. Here, we investigated the roles of introduction history and genetic diversity in establishment success of cane toads across their introduced range. We used reduced representation sequencing (ddRAD) to obtain 34,000 SNPs from 247 toads in native (French Guiana, Guyana, Ecuador, Panama, Texas) and introduced (Bermuda, southern Florida, northern Florida, Hawai'i, Puerto Rico) populations. Unlike all other cane toad introductions, we found that Florida populations were more closely related to native Central American lineages (R. horribilis), than to native Southern American lineages (R. marina). Furthermore, we found high levels of diversity and population structure in the native range, corroborating suggestions that R. marina is a species complex. We also found that introduced populations exhibit only slightly lower genetic diversity than native populations. Together with demographic analyses, this indicates founding populations of toads in Florida were larger than previously reported. Lastly, within R. marina, only one of 245 putatively adaptive SNPs showed fixed differences between native and introduced ranges, suggesting that putative selection in these introduced populations is based upon existing genetic variation. Our findings highlight the importance of genetic sequencing in understanding biological introductions and hint at the role of standing genetic variation in range expansion.

Micromanaging the nitrogen cycle in agroecosystems

While large inputs of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers enable our current rate of crop production and feed a growing global population, these fertilizers come at a heavy environmental cost. Driven by microbial processes, excess applied nitrogen is lost from agroecosystems as nitrate and nitrous oxide (N₂O) contaminating aquatic ecosystems and contributing to climate change. Interest in nitrogen-fixing microorganisms as an alternative to synthetic fertilizers is rapidly accelerating. Microbial inoculants offer the promise of a sustainable and affordable source of nitrogen, but the impact of inoculants on nitrogen dynamics at an ecosystem level is not fully understood. This review synthesizes recent studies on microbial inoculants as tools for nutrient management and considers the ramifications of inoculants for nitrogen transformations beyond fixation.

Naturalized alien floras still carry the legacy of European colonialism

The redistribution of alien species across the globe accelerated with the start of European colonialism. European powers were responsible for the deliberate and accidental transportation, introduction and establishment of alien species throughout their occupied territories and the metropolitan state. Here, we show that these activities left a lasting imprint on the global distribution of alien plants. Specifically, we investigated how four European empires (British, Spanish, Portuguese and Dutch) structured current alien floras worldwide. We found that compositional similarity is higher than expected among regions that once were occupied by the same empire. Further, we provide strong evidence that floristic similarity between regions occupied by the same empire increases with the time a region was occupied. Network analysis suggests that historically more economically or strategically important regions have more similar alien floras across regions occupied by an empire. Overall, we find that European colonial history is still detectable in alien floras worldwide.

Biotic resistance or invasional meltdown? Diversity reduces invasibility but not exotic dominance in southern California epibenthic communities

High community diversity may either prevent or promote the establishment of exotic species. The biotic resistance hypothesis holds that species-rich communities are more resistant to invasion than species-poor communities due to mechanisms including greater interspecific competition. Conversely, the invasional meltdown hypothesis proposes that greater exotic diversity increases invasibility via facilitative interactions between exotic species. To evaluate the degree to which biotic resistance or invasional meltdown influences marine community structure during the assembly period, we studied the development of marine epibenthic “fouling” communities at two southern California harbors. With a focus on sessile epibenthic species, we found that fewer exotic species established as total and exotic richness increased during community assembly and that this effect remained after accounting for space availability. We also found that changes in exotic abundance decreased over time. Throughout the assembly period, gains in exotic abundance were greatest when space was abundant and richness was low. Altogether, we found greater support for biotic resistance than invasional meltdown, suggesting that both native and exotic species contribute to biotic resistance during early development of these communities. However, our results indicate that biotic resistance may not always reduce the eventual dominance of exotic species.

Use of mixed-type data clustering algorithm for characterizing temporal and spatial distribution of biosecurity border detections of terrestrial non-indigenous species

Appropriate inspection protocols and mitigation strategies are a critical component of effective biosecurity measures, enabling implementation of sound management decisions. Statistical models to analyze biosecurity surveillance data are integral to this decision-making process. Our research focuses on analyzing border interception biosecurity data collected from a Class A Nature Reserve, Barrow Island, in Western Australia and the associated covariates describing both spatial and temporal interception patterns. A clustering analysis approach was adopted using a generalization of the popular k-means algorithm appropriate for mixed-type data. The analysis approach compared the efficiency of clustering using only the numerical data, then subsequently including covariates to the clustering. Based on numerical data only, three clusters gave an acceptable fit and provided information about the underlying data characteristics. Incorporation of covariates into the model suggested four distinct clusters dominated by physical location and type of detection. Clustering increases interpretability of complex models and is useful in data mining to highlight patterns to describe underlying processes in biosecurity and other research areas. Availability of more relevant data would greatly improve the model. Based on outcomes from our research we recommend broader use of cluster models in biosecurity data, with testing of these models on more datasets to validate the model choice and identify important explanatory variables.

Post-introduction evolution of a rapid life-history strategy in a newly invasive plant

A central question in invasion biology is whether adaptive trait evolution following species introduction promotes invasiveness. A growing number of common-garden experiments document phenotypic differences between native- and introduced-range plants, suggesting that adaptive evolution in the new range may indeed contribute to the success of invasive plants. Yet these studies are often subject to methodological pitfalls, resulting in weak evidence for post-introduction adaptive trait evolution and leaving uncertain its role in the invasion process. In a common-garden glasshouse study, we compared the growth, life-history, and reproductive traits of 35 native- and introduced-range Polygonum cespitosum populations. We used complementary approaches including climate-matching, standardizing parental conditions, selection analysis, and testing for trait-environment relationships to determine whether traits that increase invasiveness adaptively evolved in the species' new range. We found that the majority of introduced-range populations exhibited a novel trait syndrome consisting of a fast-paced life history and concomitant sparse, reduced growth form. Selection analysis confirmed that this trait syndrome led to markedly higher fitness (propagule production) over a limited growing season characteristic of regions within the introduced range. Additionally, several growth and reproductive traits showed temperature-based clines consistent with adaptive evolution in the new range. Combined, these results indicate that, subsequent to its introduction to North America over 100 generations ago, P. cespitosum has evolved key traits that maximize propagule production. These changes may in part explain the species' recent transition to invasiveness, illustrating how post-introduction evolution may contribute to the invasion process.

An Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) For Evaluating the Risk of Import Pathways for the Establishment of Invasive Species

An important aspect of analyzing the risk of unwanted organisms establishing in an area is understanding the pathways by which they arrive. Evaluating the risks of these pathways requires use of data from multiple sources, which frequently are uncertain. To address the needs of agencies responsible for biosecurity operations, we present an Integrated Biosecurity Risk Assessment Model (IBRAM) for evaluating the risk of establishment and dispersal of invasive species along trade pathways. The IBRAM framework consists of multiple linked models which describe pest entry into the country, escape along trade pathways, initial dispersal into the environment, habitat suitability, probabilities of establishment and spread, and the consequences of these invasions. Bayesian networks (BN) are used extensively to model these processes. The model includes dynamic BN components and geographic data, resulting in distributions of output parameters over spatial and temporal axes. IBRAM is supported by a web-based tool that allows users to run the model on real-world pest examples and investigate the impact of alternative risk management scenarios, to explore the effect of various interventions and resource allocations. Two case studies are provided as examples of how IBRAM may be used: Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni) (Diptera: Tephritidae) and brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) are unwanted organisms with the potential to invade Aotearoa New Zealand, and IBRAM has been influential in evaluating the efficacy of pathway management to mitigate the risk of their establishment in the country.

Behaviour of Abutilon theophrasti in Different Climatic Niches: A New Zealand Case Study

Abutilon theophrasti Medik. was initially introduced into New Zealand in the 1940s. Despite its introduction approximately 70 years ago, A. theophrasti infestation in New Zealand has been naturalized to one region only, although climate-based simulation models predicted that A. theophrasti establishment could almost occur in all New Zealand agricultural lands. One possible reason for this discrepancy is that the likelihood of establishment of A. theophrasti may vary across various localities as the climate in New Zealand is complex and varies from warm subtropical in the far north to cool temperate climates in the far south. The objective of this research was to assess and compare the likelihood of A. theophrasti establishment across various localities in New Zealand. For this, experiments were laid out across different regions in New Zealand to assess vegetative and reproductive characteristics in naturalized and casual populations of A. theophrasti. The results showed that the growth and development of both populations varied across different regions, possibly due to variable climatic and geographical conditions such as local temperatures and daily solar radiation. It appears that A. theophrasti is, however, able to grow in many regions in New Zealand, but this species is unlikely to establish and become problematic in the lower half of South Island, where the temperature is lower than optimal temperatures required by this species. A casual population was found to grow better at the early stage of growth compared to a naturalized one. However, both populations reproduced similar amounts of seed in all regions. Overall, the variable vegetative and reproductive responses recorded for A. theophrasti in different locations may suggest that the invasion dynamic of this weed species is unlikely to be similar across different climatic niches in New Zealand.

OUP accepted manuscript

International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios’ plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.

Drivers of alien species composition in bird markets across the world

The global pet trade is a major pathway for the introduction of invasive alien species. The composition of species selected for transport is driven by market demands, which may be influenced by a combination of both historical and cultural factors. We compared Eastern (Taiwan) and Western (Australia and the Iberian Peninsula) bird markets to explore factors associated with the species composition and geographic origin of the birds for sale. We used a bespoke randomization test to compare species composition, geographic origins, and species overlap at different taxonomic levels among bird markets across countries. Alien species identified in the study accounted for more than 10% of the world's bird species. Parrots and songbirds were the most common alien bird taxa traded across all markets. In both Iberian and Australian markets, there was a strong bias toward parrots, waxbills, gamebirds, and finches. In Taiwan, species traded more than expected were parrots, waxbills, starlings, and leafbirds. Neotropical species were the most traded group in the three markets. Afrotropical species were also traded more than expected in Iberian and Australian markets, while the Taiwanese traded more alien species from neighboring Asian regions. The bird trade focuses on the same few bird groups worldwide. The composition and origin of species preferred in the Western markets may be influenced by colonial histories, cultural similarity, and strict regulations on wildlife importation, while species preferences in Eastern markets are strongly influenced by regional culture and proximity. Propagule pressure is a dominant factor influencing the success of biological invasions; it is important to recognize differences in the composition of bird markets among regions because they can translate into different invasion risks, among other factors.

Propagule pressure and an invasion syndrome determine invasion success in a plant community model

The success of species invasions depends on multiple factors, including propagule pressure, disturbance, productivity, and the traits of native and non-native species. While the importance of many of these determinants has already been investigated in relative isolation, they are rarely studied in combination. Here, we address this shortcoming by exploring the effect of the above-listed factors on the success of invasions using an individual-based mechanistic model. This approach enables us to explicitly control environmental factors (temperature as surrogate for productivity, disturbance, and propagule pressure) as well as to monitor whole-community trait distributions of environmental adaptation, mass, and dispersal abilities. We simulated introductions of plant individuals to an oceanic island to assess which factors and species traits contribute to invasion success. We found that the most influential factors were higher propagule pressure and a particular set of traits. This invasion trait syndrome was characterized by a relative similarity in functional traits of invasive to native species, while invasive species had on average higher environmental adaptation, higher body mass, and increased dispersal distances, that is, had greater competitive and dispersive abilities. Our results highlight the importance in management practice of reducing the import of alien species, especially those that display this trait syndrome and come from similar habitats as those being managed.

Planetary Biosecurity: Applying Invasion Science to Prevent Biological Contamination from Space Travel

As plans for space exploration and commercial use expand rapidly, biosecurity measures and risk assessments that inform them must adapt. Sophisticated protocols are required to prevent biological contamination of extraterrestrial environments from Earth and vice versa. Such protocols should be informed by research on biological invasions—human-assisted spread of organisms into novel environments—which has revealed, inter alia, that (1) invasion risk is driven by the timing and frequency of introduction events, whose control requires addressing the least secure human activities associated with organismal transport; (2) invasions and their impacts are difficult to predict, because these phenomena are governed by context dependencies involving traits of the organism and the receiving environment; and (3) early detection and rapid response are crucial for prevention but undermined by taxonomic methods that fail to recognize what is “alien” versus what is native. Collaboration among astrobiologists, invasion biologists, and policymakers could greatly enhance planetary biosecurity protocols.

Loss of functional diversity through anthropogenic extinctions of island birds is not offset by biotic invasions

Human impacts reshape ecological communities through the extinction and introduction of species. The combined impact of these factors depends on whether non-native species fill the functional roles of extinct species, thus buffering the loss of functional diversity. This question has been difficult to address, because comprehensive information about past extinctions and their traits is generally lacking. We combine detailed information about extinct, extant, and established alien birds to quantify historical changes in functional diversity across nine oceanic archipelagos. We found that alien species often equal or exceed the number of anthropogenic extinctions yet apparently perform a narrower set of functional roles as current island assemblages have undergone a substantial and ubiquitous net loss in functional diversity and increased functional similarity among assemblages. Our results reveal that the introduction of alien species has not prevented anthropogenic extinctions from reducing and homogenizing the functional diversity of native bird assemblages on oceanic archipelagos.

Pet distribution modelling: Untangling the invasive potential of Trachemys dorbigni (Emydidae) in the Americas

Human activities have been changing the global biogeographic patterns by the introductions of invasive species. For reptiles, the invasion rate increase of non-native species is remarkably related to the pet trade, especially for freshwater turtles. Here we estimated the invasive potential of the South American turtle Trachemys dorbigni in the Americas using a combination of climatic and human activity variables. We built species distribution models based on data from the native and invasive ranges, using the ensemble model from five different algorithms (GAM, MAXENT, BRT, RF and GBM). We compared the two models' performance and predictions, one calibrated with only climatic variables (climate-driven), and the second also included a descriptive variable of human activity (climate plus human-driven). Suitable areas for T. dorbigni covered occurrence areas of its congeners and highly diversified ecoregions, such as the eastern USA, the islands of Central America, and the south eastern and eastern Brazilian coast. Our results indicate that human activities allow T. dorbigni to establish populations outside of its original climatic niche. Including human activity variables proved fundamental to refining the results to identify more susceptible areas to invasion and to allow the efficient targeting of prevention measures. Finally, we suggested a set of actions to prevent T. dorbigni becoming a highly impacting species in the areas identified as more prone to its invasion.

Competitive trait hierarchies of native communities and invasive propagule pressure consistently predict invasion success during grassland establishment

Invasive non-native plants challenge ecosystems restoration, and understanding the factors that determine the establishment of invasive plants is crucial to improve restoration outcomes. However, the drivers of invasibility of plant communities are not sufficiently clear, and combined effects are not understood. Therefore, we investigated the contribution of the main drivers of invasion success during early phases of restoration, i.e., biotic resistance, invasive propagule pressure, and environmental fluctuations. We compared the contribution of these drivers in a series of mesocosms experiments using designed grasslands as a model system, and Solidago gigantea as invasive model species. Two grassland communities were designed according to competitive trait hierarchies with different sowing patterns, reflecting variation in biotic resistance. We then manipulated invader propagule pressure and applied different scenarios of environmental fluctuation, i.e., flood, heat, and N fertilization. Invasive biomass was considered as proxy for invasion success, while native biomass represented restoration success. There were consistent effects of biotic resistance to S. gigantea invasion via competitive trait hierarchies in the three experiments. Communities dominated by species with high-competition traits were more resistant regardless of environmental fluctuation. Clumped seeding of the native community reduced invasibility, whereas high non-native propagule density increased invasion. The effects of environmental fluctuation were less consistent and context-dependent, thus playing a secondary role when compared to biotic drivers of invasion. Restoration initiatives on grasslands impacted by invasive plants should consider biotic resistance of the restored community as a key driver and the importance of controlling further arrivals of invasive species during community assembly.

Multiple co-occurrent alien invaders constrain aquatic biodiversity in rivers

A greater understanding and effective management of biological invasions is a priority for biodiversity conservation globally. Many freshwater ecosystems are experiencing the colonization and spread of multiple co-occurrent alien species. Here the implications of both the relative abundance and richness of alien invaders on aquatic macroinvertebrate taxonomic and functional richness, ecosystem quality, and functional redundancy are assessed using long-term data from rivers in England. Based on the most common aquatic invaders, results indicated that their richness, rather than abundance, was the most important factor negatively affecting aquatic macroinvertebrate biodiversity. However, the response of functional redundancy was negatively affected by invader abundance at the river basin scale. The response of communities varied as the number of invading taxa increased, with the most marked reductions following the colonization of the first few invaders. Results indicate that different facets of multiple biological invasions influence distinct aspects of aquatic biodiversity. Preventing the establishment of new invaders and limiting invader taxa richness within a community should therefore be a conservation priority. These findings will assist river scientists in understanding mechanisms driving changes in biodiversity and facilitate the testing of ecological theories while also ensuring environmental managers and regulators can prioritize conservation / management opportunities.

A guide to using the internet to monitor and quantify the wildlife trade

The unrivaled growth in e-commerce of animals and plants presents an unprecedented opportunity to monitor wildlife trade to inform conservation, biosecurity, and law enforcement. Using the internet to quantify the scale of the wildlife trade (volume and frequency) is a relatively recent and rapidly developing approach that lacks an accessible framework for locating relevant websites and collecting data. We produced an accessible guide for internet-based wildlife trade surveillance. We detailed a repeatable method involving a systematic internet search, with search engines, to locate relevant websites and content. For data collection, we highlight web-scraping technology as an efficient way to collect data in an automated fashion at regularly timed intervals. Our guide is applicable to the multitude of trade-based contexts because researchers can tailor search keywords for specific taxa or derived products and locations of interest. We provide information for working with the diversity of websites used in wildlife trade. For example, to locate relevant content on social media (e.g., posts or groups), each social media platform should be examined individually via the site's internal search engine. A key advantage of using the internet to study wildlife trade is the relative ease of access to an increasing amount of trade-related data. However, not all wildlife trade occurs online and it may occur on unobservable sections of the internet.

Managing propagule pressure to prevent invasive species establishments: propagule size, number, and risk-release curve

There is considerable evidence that keeping propagule pressure low can drastically reduce establishment probability of potential invasive species. Yet, most management plans and research efforts fail to explicitly acknowledge all three of the components of propagule pressure: size, number, and the risk-release relationship. It is unclear how failing to specify one or more of these components can influence the efficacy of management plans in preventing invasive species establishment. Furthermore, even if all components are acknowledged and quantified, there currently is no mathematical tool available to calculate the levels of propagule pressure that ensure attainment of a predetermined, and system-specific, target establishment probability. Here, we quantify the resulting uncertainty in establishment probability when one or more components of propagule pressure is unknown by using parameter uncertainty analysis on realistic values of propagule pressure. In addition, to aid in the development of management plans that explicitly set propagule pressure limits, we develop a propagule-pressure sensitivity analysis that we use to determine the required reduction in levels for propagule size and number (representative of management actions) to maintain a target establishment probability. We show that the precision of establishment estimates is highly dependent on knowledge of all three propagule pressure components, where the possible range of values for establishment probability can vary by over 50% without full specification. In addition, our sensitivity analysis showed that propagule size and number can be altered independently or in conjunction to lower establishment probability below a target level. Importantly, our sensitivity analysis was able to specifically quantify how much reduction in a propagule pressure component(s) is needed to reach a given target establishment probability. Our findings suggest that quantifying the three components of propagule pressure should be a priority for invasive species prevention moving forward. Furthermore, our sensitivity analysis tool can serve to guide the development of new invasive species management plans in a transparent and quantitative manner. Together with information on the costs associated with approaches to reducing propagule pressure, our tool can be used to identify the most cost-effective approach to prevent invasive species establishments.

'Accidents waiting to happen'-Insights from a simple model on the emergence of infectious agents in new hosts

This study evaluates through modelling the possible individual and combined effect of three populational parameters of pathogens (reproduction rate; rate of novelty emergence; and propagule size) on the colonization of new host species-putatively the most fundamental process leading to the emergence of new infectious diseases. The results are analysed under the theoretical framework of the Stockholm Paradigm using IBM simulations to better understand the evolutionary dynamics of the pathogen population and the possible role of Ecological Fitting. The simulations suggest that all three parameters positively influence the success of colonization of new hosts by a novel parasite population, but contrary to the prevailing belief, the rate of novelty emergence (e.g. mutations) is the least important factor. Maximization of all parameters results in a synergetic facilitation of the colonization and emulates the expected scenario for pathogenic microorganisms. The simulations also provide theoretical support for the retention of the capacity of fast-evolving lineages to retro-colonize their previous host species/lineage by ecological fitting. Capacity is, thus, much larger than we can anticipate. Hence, the results support the empirical observations that opportunity of encounter (i.e. the breakdown in mechanisms for ecological isolation) is a fundamental determinant to the emergence of new associations-especially Emergent Infectious Diseases-and the dynamics of host exploration, as observed in SARS-CoV-2. Insights on the dynamics of Emergent Infectious Diseases derived from the simulations and from the Stockholm Paradigm are discussed.

Distance to native climatic niche margins explains establishment success of alien mammals

One key hypothesis explaining the fate of exotic species introductions posits that the establishment of a self-sustaining population in the invaded range can only succeed within conditions matching the native climatic niche. Yet, this hypothesis remains untested for individual release events. Using a dataset of 979 introductions of 173 mammal species worldwide, we show that climate-matching to the realized native climatic niche, measured by a new Niche Margin Index (NMI), is a stronger predictor of establishment success than most previously tested life-history attributes and historical factors. Contrary to traditional climatic suitability metrics derived from species distribution models, NMI is based on niche margins and provides a measure of how distant a site is inside or, importantly, outside the niche. Besides many applications in research in ecology and evolution, NMI as a measure of native climatic niche-matching in risk assessments could improve efforts to prevent invasions and avoid costly eradications.

Ornamentals lead the way: global influences on plant invasions in the Caribbean

Understanding the historical factors associated with the invasion success of alien species in a region may help us to identify sources, vectors, and pathways that are more likely to originate new invaders. Here, we gather data for traits related to the history of introduction (e.g., continent of origin, reason for introduction, and date of introduction) of 616 alien plant species listed as invasive on 18 island groups across the Caribbean region. We used these data to evaluate how human activity has influenced plant invasions on Caribbean islands over time and whether invasion success could be driven by traits of the introduction process. We found that significantly more invasive plants (54%) were intentionally introduced for ornamental reasons than for any other purpose. Most invaders in the Caribbean are native to Asia, South America, and Africa and the cumulative number of invasive species in this region has been steadily increasing during the last 200 years, but since 1850, this trend has been led by species introduced as ornamentals. We also found a significant association between continent of origin and reason of introduction, with more invaders than expected being ornamentals from Asia and America, and forage species from Africa. Our results show that introduced ornamentals are successfully invading all major habitats across the Caribbean, exacerbating conservation issues and threatening native biodiversity. Armed with knowledge of origins and reasons for introductions, effective biosecurity actions as well as control and management strategies can be better targeted to address the problem of invasive species in the region.