1
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Mondal A, Sánchez C HM, Marshall JM. MGDrivE 3: A decoupled vector-human framework for epidemiological simulation of mosquito genetic control tools and their surveillance. PLoS Comput Biol 2024; 20:e1012133. [PMID: 38805562 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2023] [Accepted: 05/03/2024] [Indexed: 05/30/2024] Open
Abstract
Novel mosquito genetic control tools, such as CRISPR-based gene drives, hold great promise in reducing the global burden of vector-borne diseases. As these technologies advance through the research and development pipeline, there is a growing need for modeling frameworks incorporating increasing levels of entomological and epidemiological detail in order to address questions regarding logistics and biosafety. Epidemiological predictions are becoming increasingly relevant to the development of target product profiles and the design of field trials and interventions, while entomological surveillance is becoming increasingly important to regulation and biosafety. We present MGDrivE 3 (Mosquito Gene Drive Explorer 3), a new version of a previously-developed framework, MGDrivE 2, that investigates the spatial population dynamics of mosquito genetic control systems and their epidemiological implications. The new framework incorporates three major developments: i) a decoupled sampling algorithm allowing the vector portion of the MGDrivE framework to be paired with a more detailed epidemiological framework, ii) a version of the Imperial College London malaria transmission model, which incorporates age structure, various forms of immunity, and human and vector interventions, and iii) a surveillance module that tracks mosquitoes captured by traps throughout the simulation. Example MGDrivE 3 simulations are presented demonstrating the application of the framework to a CRISPR-based homing gene drive linked to dual disease-refractory genes and their potential to interrupt local malaria transmission. Simulations are also presented demonstrating surveillance of such a system by a network of mosquito traps. MGDrivE 3 is freely available as an open-source R package on CRAN (https://cran.r-project.org/package=MGDrivE2) (version 2.1.0), and extensive examples and vignettes are provided. We intend the software to aid in understanding of human health impacts and biosafety of mosquito genetic control tools, and continue to iterate per feedback from the genetic control community.
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Affiliation(s)
- Agastya Mondal
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Héctor M Sánchez C
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - John M Marshall
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
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2
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Ambrose L, Allen SL, Iro'ofa C, Butafa C, Beebe NW. Genetic and geographic population structure in the malaria vector, Anopheles farauti, provides a candidate system for pioneering confinable gene-drive releases. Heredity (Edinb) 2024; 132:232-246. [PMID: 38494530 DOI: 10.1038/s41437-024-00677-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2023] [Revised: 02/27/2024] [Accepted: 02/29/2024] [Indexed: 03/19/2024] Open
Abstract
Indoor insecticide applications are the primary tool for reducing malaria transmission in the Solomon Archipelago, a region where Anopheles farauti is the only common malaria vector. Due to the evolution of behavioural resistance in some An. farauti populations, these applications have become less effective. New malaria control interventions are therefore needed in this region, and gene-drives provide a promising new technology. In considering developing a population-specific (local) gene-drive in An. farauti, we detail the species' population genetic structure using microsatellites and whole mitogenomes, finding many spatially confined populations both within and between landmasses. This strong population structure suggests that An. farauti would be a useful system for developing a population-specific, confinable gene-drive for field release, where private alleles can be used as Cas9 targets. Previous work on Anopheles gambiae has used the Cardinal gene for the development of a global population replacement gene-drive. We therefore also analyse the Cardinal gene to assess whether it may be a suitable target to engineer a gene-drive for the modification of local An. farauti populations. Despite the extensive population structure observed in An. farauti for microsatellites, only one remote island population from Vanuatu contained fixed and private alleles at the Cardinal locus. Nonetheless, this study provides an initial framework for further population genomic investigations to discover high-frequency private allele targets in localized An. farauti populations. This would enable the development of gene-drive strains for modifying localised populations with minimal chance of escape and may provide a low-risk route to field trial evaluations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke Ambrose
- School of the Environment, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
| | - Scott L Allen
- School of the Environment, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Charlie Iro'ofa
- Solomon Islands Ministry of Health, Honiara, Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands
| | - Charles Butafa
- Solomon Islands Ministry of Health, Honiara, Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands
| | - Nigel W Beebe
- School of the Environment, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
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3
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Sánchez C. HM, Smith DL, Marshall JM. MGSurvE: A framework to optimize trap placement for genetic surveillance of mosquito populations. PLoS Comput Biol 2024; 20:e1012046. [PMID: 38709820 PMCID: PMC11098508 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2023] [Revised: 05/16/2024] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Genetic surveillance of mosquito populations is becoming increasingly relevant as genetics-based mosquito control strategies advance from laboratory to field testing. Especially applicable are mosquito gene drive projects, the potential scale of which leads monitoring to be a significant cost driver. For these projects, monitoring will be required to detect unintended spread of gene drive mosquitoes beyond field sites, and the emergence of alternative alleles, such as drive-resistant alleles or non-functional effector genes, within intervention sites. This entails the need to distribute mosquito traps efficiently such that an allele of interest is detected as quickly as possible-ideally when remediation is still viable. Additionally, insecticide-based tools such as bednets are compromised by insecticide-resistance alleles for which there is also a need to detect as quickly as possible. To this end, we present MGSurvE (Mosquito Gene SurveillancE): a computational framework that optimizes trap placement for genetic surveillance of mosquito populations such that the time to detection of an allele of interest is minimized. A key strength of MGSurvE is that it allows important biological features of mosquitoes and the landscapes they inhabit to be accounted for, namely: i) resources required by mosquitoes (e.g., food sources and aquatic breeding sites) can be explicitly distributed through a landscape, ii) movement of mosquitoes may depend on their sex, the current state of their gonotrophic cycle (if female) and resource attractiveness, and iii) traps may differ in their attractiveness profile. Example MGSurvE analyses are presented to demonstrate optimal trap placement for: i) an Aedes aegypti population in a suburban landscape in Queensland, Australia, and ii) an Anopheles gambiae population on the island of São Tomé, São Tomé and Príncipe. Further documentation and use examples are provided in project's documentation. MGSurvE is intended as a resource for both field and computational researchers interested in mosquito gene surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Héctor M. Sánchez C.
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - David L. Smith
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - John M. Marshall
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America
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4
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Olejarz JW, Nowak MA. Gene drives for the extinction of wild metapopulations. J Theor Biol 2024; 577:111654. [PMID: 37984587 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2023] [Revised: 09/15/2023] [Accepted: 10/31/2023] [Indexed: 11/22/2023]
Abstract
Population-suppressing gene drives may be capable of extinguishing wild populations, with proposed applications in conservation, agriculture, and public health. However, unintended and potentially disastrous consequences of release of drive-engineered individuals are extremely difficult to predict. We propose a model for the dynamics of a sex ratio-biasing drive, and using simulations, we show that failure of the suppression drive is often a natural outcome due to stochastic and spatial effects. We further demonstrate rock-paper-scissors dynamics among wild-type, drive-infected, and extinct populations that can persist for arbitrarily long times. Gene drive-mediated extinction of wild populations entails critical complications that lurk far beyond the reach of laboratory-based studies. Our findings help in addressing these challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason W Olejarz
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, 02115, USA; Department of Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA.
| | - Martin A Nowak
- Department of Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA; Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
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5
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Bennett JB, Wu SL, Chennuri PR, Myles KM, Ndeffo-Mbah ML. Expansions to the MGDrivE suite for simulating the efficacy of novel gene-drive constructs in the control of mosquito-borne diseases. BMC Res Notes 2023; 16:258. [PMID: 37798614 PMCID: PMC10557238 DOI: 10.1186/s13104-023-06533-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2023] [Accepted: 09/25/2023] [Indexed: 10/07/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The MGDrivE (MGDrivE 1 and MGDrivE 2) modeling framework provides a flexible and expansive environment for testing the efficacy of novel gene-drive constructs for the control of mosquito-borne diseases. However, the existing model framework did not previously support several features necessary to simulate some types of intervention strategies. Namely, current MGDrivE versions do not permit modeling of small molecule inducible systems for controlling gene expression in gene drive designs or the inheritance patterns of self-eliminating gene drive mechanisms. RESULTS Here, we demonstrate a new MGDrivE 2 module that permits the simulation of gene drive strategies incorporating small molecule-inducible systems and self-eliminating gene drive mechanisms. Additionally, we also implemented novel sparsity-aware sampling algorithms for improved computational efficiency in MGDrivE 2 and supplied an analysis and plotting function applicable to the outputs of MGDrivE 1 and MGDrivE 2.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Sean L Wu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - Pratima R Chennuri
- Department of Entomology, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
- Future Fields, Edmonton, AB, T5H 0L5, Canada
| | - Kevin M Myles
- Department of Entomology, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Martial L Ndeffo-Mbah
- Department of Integrative Biosciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA.
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6
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Pan M, Champer J. Making waves: Comparative analysis of gene drive spread characteristics in a continuous space model. Mol Ecol 2023; 32:5673-5694. [PMID: 37694511 DOI: 10.1111/mec.17131] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/11/2022] [Revised: 08/16/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 09/12/2023]
Abstract
With their ability to rapidly increase in frequency, gene drives can be used to modify or suppress target populations after an initial release of drive individuals. Recent advances have revealed many possibilities for different types of drives, and several of these have been realized in experiments. These drives have advantages and disadvantages related to their ease of construction, confinement and capacity to be used for modification or suppression. Though characteristics of these drives have been explored in modelling studies, assessment in continuous space environments has been limited, often focusing on outcomes rather than fundamental properties. Here, we conduct a comparative analysis of many different gene drive types that have the capacity to form a wave of advance in continuous space using individual-based simulations in continuous space. We evaluate the drive wave speed as a function of drive performance and ecological parameters, which reveals substantial differences between drive performance in panmictic versus spatial environments. In particular, we find that suppression drive waves are uniquely vulnerable to fitness costs and undesired CRISPR cleavage activity in embryos by maternal deposition. Some drives, however, retain robust performance even with widely varying efficiency parameters. To gain a better understanding of drive waves, we compare their panmictic performance and find that the rate of wild-type allele removal is correlated with drive wave speed, though this is also affected by other factors. Overall, our results provide a useful resource for understanding the performance of drives in spatially continuous environments, which may be most representative of potential drive deployment in many relevant scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mingzuyu Pan
- Center for Bioinformatics, School of Life Sciences, Center for Life Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Jackson Champer
- Center for Bioinformatics, School of Life Sciences, Center for Life Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
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7
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Mondal A, C. HMS, Marshall JM. MGDrivE 3: A decoupled vector-human framework for epidemiological simulation of mosquito genetic control tools and their surveillance. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2023:2023.09.09.556958. [PMID: 37745458 PMCID: PMC10515759 DOI: 10.1101/2023.09.09.556958] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/26/2023]
Abstract
Novel mosquito genetic control tools, such as CRISPR-based gene drives, hold great promise in reducing the global burden of vector-borne diseases. As these technologies advance through the research and development pipeline, there is a growing need for modeling frameworks incorporating increasing levels of entomological and epidemiological detail in order to address questions regarding logistics and biosafety. Epidemiological predictions are becoming increasingly relevant to the development of target product profiles and the design of field trials and interventions, while entomological surveillance is becoming increasingly important to regulation and biosafety. We present MGDrivE 3 (Mosquito Gene Drive Explorer 3), a new version of a previously-developed framework, MGDrivE 2, that investigates the spatial population dynamics of mosquito genetic control systems and their epidemiological implications. The new framework incorporates three major developments: i) a decoupled sampling algorithm allowing the vector portion of the MGDrivE framework to be paired with a more detailed epidemiological framework, ii) a version of the Imperial College London malaria transmission model, which incorporates age structure, various forms of immunity, and human and vector interventions, and iii) a surveillance module that tracks mosquitoes captured by traps throughout the simulation. Example MGDrivE 3 simulations are presented demonstrating the application of the framework to a CRISPR-based homing gene drive linked to dual disease-refractory genes and their potential to interrupt local malaria transmission. Simulations are also presented demonstrating surveillance of such a system by a network of mosquito traps. MGDrivE 3 is freely available as an open-source R package on CRAN (https://cran.r-project.org/package=MGDrivE2) (version 2.1.0), and extensive examples and vignettes are provided. We intend the software to aid in understanding of human health impacts and biosafety of mosquito genetic control tools, and continue to iterate per feedback from the genetic control community.
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Affiliation(s)
- Agastya Mondal
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Héctor M. Sánchez C.
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - John M. Marshall
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
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8
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Smidler AL, Apte RA, Pai JJ, Chow ML, Chen S, Mondal A, Sánchez C. HM, Antoshechkin I, Marshall JM, Akbari OS. Eliminating Malaria Vectors with Precision Guided Sterile Males. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2023:2023.07.20.549947. [PMID: 37503146 PMCID: PMC10370176 DOI: 10.1101/2023.07.20.549947] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/29/2023]
Abstract
Controlling the principal African malaria vector, the mosquito Anopheles gambiae, is considered essential to curtail malaria transmission. However existing vector control technologies rely on insecticides, which are becoming increasingly ineffective. Sterile insect technique (SIT) is a powerful suppression approach that has successfully eradicated a number of insect pests, yet the A. gambiae toolkit lacks the requisite technologies for its implementation. SIT relies on iterative mass-releases of non-biting, non-driving, sterile males which seek out and mate with monandrous wild females. Once mated, females are permanently sterilized due to mating-induced refractoriness, which results in population suppression of the subsequent generation. However, sterilization by traditional methods renders males unfit, making the creation of precise genetic sterilization methods imperative. Here we develop precision guided Sterile Insect Technique (pgSIT) in the mosquito A. gambiae for inducible, programmed male-sterilization and female-elimination for wide scale use in SIT campaigns. Using a binary CRISPR strategy, we cross separate engineered Cas9 and gRNA strains to disrupt male-fertility and female-essential genes, yielding >99.5% male-sterility and >99.9% female-lethality in hybrid progeny. We demonstrate that these genetically sterilized males have good longevity, are able to induce population suppression in cage trials, and are predicted to eliminate wild A. gambiae populations using mathematical models, making them ideal candidates for release. This work provides a valuable addition to the malaria genetic biocontrol toolkit, for the first time enabling scalable SIT-like confinable suppression in the species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea L. Smidler
- School of Biological Sciences, Department of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093
| | - Reema A. Apte
- School of Biological Sciences, Department of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093
| | - James J. Pai
- School of Biological Sciences, Department of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093
| | - Martha L. Chow
- School of Biological Sciences, Department of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093
| | - Sanle Chen
- School of Biological Sciences, Department of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093
| | - Agastya Mondal
- Divisions of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Héctor M. Sánchez C.
- Divisions of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Igor Antoshechkin
- Division of Biology and Biological Engineering (BBE), California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA91125, USA
| | - John M. Marshall
- Divisions of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
- Innovative Genomics Institute, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Omar S. Akbari
- School of Biological Sciences, Department of Cell and Developmental Biology, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093
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9
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Carballar-Lejarazú R, Dong Y, Pham TB, Tushar T, Corder RM, Mondal A, Sánchez C. HM, Lee HF, Marshall JM, Dimopoulos G, James AA. Dual effector population modification gene-drive strains of the African malaria mosquitoes, Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles coluzzii. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2221118120. [PMID: 37428915 PMCID: PMC10629562 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2221118120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Accepted: 06/05/2023] [Indexed: 07/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Proposed genetic approaches for reducing human malaria include population modification, which introduces genes into vector mosquitoes to reduce or prevent parasite transmission. We demonstrate the potential of Cas9/guide RNA (gRNA)-based gene-drive systems linked to dual antiparasite effector genes to spread rapidly through mosquito populations. Two strains have an autonomous gene-drive system coupled to dual anti-Plasmodium falciparum effector genes comprising single-chain variable fragment monoclonal antibodies targeting parasite ookinetes and sporozoites in the African malaria mosquitoes Anopheles gambiae (AgTP13) and Anopheles coluzzii (AcTP13). The gene-drive systems achieved full introduction within 3 to 6 mo after release in small cage trials. Life-table analyses revealed no fitness loads affecting AcTP13 gene-drive dynamics but AgTP13 males were less competitive than wild types. The effector molecules reduced significantly both parasite prevalence and infection intensities. These data supported transmission modeling of conceptual field releases in an island setting that shows meaningful epidemiological impacts at different sporozoite threshold levels (2.5 to 10 k) for human infection by reducing malaria incidence in optimal simulations by 50 to 90% within as few as 1 to 2 mo after a series of releases, and by ≥90% within 3 mo. Modeling outcomes for low sporozoite thresholds are sensitive to gene-drive system fitness loads, gametocytemia infection intensities during parasite challenges, and the formation of potentially drive-resistant genome target sites, extending the predicted times to achieve reduced incidence. TP13-based strains could be effective for malaria control strategies following validation of sporozoite transmission threshold numbers and testing field-derived parasite strains. These or similar strains are viable candidates for future field trials in a malaria-endemic region.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Yuemei Dong
- W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Malaria Research Institute, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD21205
| | - Thai Binh Pham
- Department of Microbiology & Molecular Genetics, University of California, Irvine, CA92697-4025
| | - Taylor Tushar
- Department of Microbiology & Molecular Genetics, University of California, Irvine, CA92697-4025
| | - Rodrigo M. Corder
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA94720
| | - Agastya Mondal
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA94720
| | - Héctor M. Sánchez C.
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA94720
| | - Hsu-Feng Lee
- Department of Microbiology & Molecular Genetics, University of California, Irvine, CA92697-4025
| | - John M. Marshall
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA94720
| | - George Dimopoulos
- W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Malaria Research Institute, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD21205
| | - Anthony A. James
- Department of Microbiology & Molecular Genetics, University of California, Irvine, CA92697-4025
- Department of Molecular Biology & Biochemistry, University of California, Irvine, CA92697-3900
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10
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Sánchez C. HM, Smith DL, Marshall JM. MGSurvE: A framework to optimize trap placement for genetic surveillance of mosquito population. BIORXIV : THE PREPRINT SERVER FOR BIOLOGY 2023:2023.06.26.546301. [PMID: 37425729 PMCID: PMC10327167 DOI: 10.1101/2023.06.26.546301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/11/2023]
Abstract
Genetic surveillance of mosquito populations is becoming increasingly relevant as genetics-based mosquito control strategies advance from laboratory to field testing. Especially applicable are mosquito gene drive projects, the potential scale of which leads monitoring to be a significant cost driver. For these projects, monitoring will be required to detect unintended spread of gene drive mosquitoes beyond field sites, and the emergence of alternative alleles, such as drive-resistant alleles or non-functional effector genes, within intervention sites. This entails the need to distribute mosquito traps efficiently such that an allele of interest is detected as quickly as possible - ideally when remediation is still viable. Additionally, insecticide-based tools such as bednets are compromised by insecticide-resistance alleles for which there is also a need to detect as quickly as possible. To this end, we present MGSurvE (Mosquito Gene SurveillancE): a computational framework that optimizes trap placement for genetic surveillance of mosquito populations such that the time to detection of an allele of interest is minimized. A key strength of MGSurvE is that it allows important biological features of mosquitoes and the landscapes they inhabit to be accounted for, namely: i) resources required by mosquitoes (e.g., food sources and aquatic breeding sites) can be explicitly distributed through a landscape, ii) movement of mosquitoes may depend on their sex, the current state of their gonotrophic cycle (if female) and resource attractiveness, and iii) traps may differ in their attractiveness profile. Example MGSurvE analyses are presented to demonstrate optimal trap placement for: i) an Aedes aegypti population in a suburban landscape in Queensland, Australia, and ii) an Anopheles gambiae population on the island of São Tomé, São Tomé and Príncipe. Further documentation and use examples are provided in project's documentation. MGSurvE is freely available as an open-source Python package on pypi (https://pypi.org/project/MGSurvE/). It is intended as a resource for both field and computational researchers interested in mosquito gene surveillance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Héctor M. Sánchez C.
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - David L. Smith
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
- Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - John M. Marshall
- Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
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11
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Wu SL, Henry JM, Citron DT, Mbabazi Ssebuliba D, Nakakawa Nsumba J, Sánchez C HM, Brady OJ, Guerra CA, García GA, Carter AR, Ferguson HM, Afolabi BE, Hay SI, Reiner RC, Kiware S, Smith DL. Spatial dynamics of malaria transmission. PLoS Comput Biol 2023; 19:e1010684. [PMID: 37307282 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010684] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Accepted: 05/15/2023] [Indexed: 06/14/2023] Open
Abstract
The Ross-Macdonald model has exerted enormous influence over the study of malaria transmission dynamics and control, but it lacked features to describe parasite dispersal, travel, and other important aspects of heterogeneous transmission. Here, we present a patch-based differential equation modeling framework that extends the Ross-Macdonald model with sufficient skill and complexity to support planning, monitoring and evaluation for Plasmodium falciparum malaria control. We designed a generic interface for building structured, spatial models of malaria transmission based on a new algorithm for mosquito blood feeding. We developed new algorithms to simulate adult mosquito demography, dispersal, and egg laying in response to resource availability. The core dynamical components describing mosquito ecology and malaria transmission were decomposed, redesigned and reassembled into a modular framework. Structural elements in the framework-human population strata, patches, and aquatic habitats-interact through a flexible design that facilitates construction of ensembles of models with scalable complexity to support robust analytics for malaria policy and adaptive malaria control. We propose updated definitions for the human biting rate and entomological inoculation rates. We present new formulas to describe parasite dispersal and spatial dynamics under steady state conditions, including the human biting rates, parasite dispersal, the "vectorial capacity matrix," a human transmitting capacity distribution matrix, and threshold conditions. An [Formula: see text] package that implements the framework, solves the differential equations, and computes spatial metrics for models developed in this framework has been developed. Development of the model and metrics have focused on malaria, but since the framework is modular, the same ideas and software can be applied to other mosquito-borne pathogen systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean L Wu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - John M Henry
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Quantitative Ecology and Resource Management, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Daniel T Citron
- Department of Population Health, Grossman School of Medicine, New York University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | | | - Juliet Nakakawa Nsumba
- Department of Mathematics, Makerere University Department of Mathematics, School of Physical Sciences, College of Natural Science, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Héctor M Sánchez C
- Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America
- Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Oliver J Brady
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Carlos A Guerra
- MCD Global Health, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | | | - Austin R Carter
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Heather M Ferguson
- Faculty of Biomedical and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | - Bakare Emmanuel Afolabi
- International Centre for Applied Mathematical Modelling and Data Analytics, Federal University Oye Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria
- Department of Mathematics, Federal University Oye Ekiti, Ekiti State, Nigeria
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Health Metrics Science, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Robert C Reiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Health Metrics Science, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Samson Kiware
- Ifakara Health Institute, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
- Pan-African Mosquito Control Association (PAMCA), Nairobi, Kenya
| | - David L Smith
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Health Metrics Science, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
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12
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Ryan SJ, Lippi CA, Caplan T, Diaz A, Dunbar W, Grover S, Johnson S, Knowles R, Lowe R, Mateen BA, Thomson MC, Stewart-Ibarra AM. The current landscape of software tools for the climate-sensitive infectious disease modelling community. Lancet Planet Health 2023; 7:e527-e536. [PMID: 37286249 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00056-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2022] [Revised: 03/15/2023] [Accepted: 03/16/2023] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Climate-sensitive infectious disease modelling is crucial for public health planning and is underpinned by a complex network of software tools. We identified only 37 tools that incorporated both climate inputs and epidemiological information to produce an output of disease risk in one package, were transparently described and validated, were named (for future searching and versioning), and were accessible (ie, the code was published during the past 10 years or was available on a repository, web platform, or other user interface). We noted disproportionate representation of developers based at North American and European institutions. Most tools (n=30 [81%]) focused on vector-borne diseases, and more than half (n=16 [53%]) of these tools focused on malaria. Few tools (n=4 [11%]) focused on food-borne, respiratory, or water-borne diseases. The under-representation of tools for estimating outbreaks of directly transmitted diseases represents a major knowledge gap. Just over half (n=20 [54%]) of the tools assessed were described as operationalised, with many freely available online.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sadie J Ryan
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation Laboratory Group, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
| | - Catherine A Lippi
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation Laboratory Group, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA; Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | | | - Avriel Diaz
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Willy Dunbar
- National Collaborating Centre for Healthy Public Policy, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | | | | | | | - Rachel Lowe
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Barcelona, Spain; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health and Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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13
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Combs MA, Golnar AJ, Overcash JM, Lloyd AL, Hayes KR, O'Brochta DA, Pepin KM. Leveraging eco-evolutionary models for gene drive risk assessment. Trends Genet 2023:S0168-9525(23)00090-2. [PMID: 37198063 DOI: 10.1016/j.tig.2023.04.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2023] [Revised: 04/07/2023] [Accepted: 04/14/2023] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Engineered gene drives create potential for both widespread benefits and irreversible harms to ecosystems. CRISPR-based systems of allelic conversion have rapidly accelerated gene drive research across diverse taxa, putting field trials and their necessary risk assessments on the horizon. Dynamic process-based models provide flexible quantitative platforms to predict gene drive outcomes in the context of system-specific ecological and evolutionary features. Here, we synthesize gene drive dynamic modeling studies to highlight research trends, knowledge gaps, and emergent principles, organized around their genetic, demographic, spatial, environmental, and implementation features. We identify the phenomena that most significantly influence model predictions, discuss limitations of biological complexity and uncertainty, and provide insights to promote responsible development and model-assisted risk assessment of gene drives.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew A Combs
- National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, Fort Collins, CO, 80521, USA.
| | - Andrew J Golnar
- National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, Fort Collins, CO, 80521, USA
| | - Justin M Overcash
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Biotechnology Regulatory Services, 20737, USA
| | - Alun L Lloyd
- North Carolina State University, Biomathematics Graduate Program and Department of Mathematics, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA
| | - Keith R Hayes
- The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Data 61, Hobart, TAS, 7004, Australia
| | - David A O'Brochta
- Foundation for the National Institutes of Health, North Bethesda, MD, 20852, USA
| | - Kim M Pepin
- National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, Fort Collins, CO, 80521, USA
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14
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Frieß JL, Lalyer CR, Giese B, Simon S, Otto M. Review of gene drive modelling and implications for risk assessment of gene drive organisms. Ecol Modell 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110285] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023]
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15
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Garrood WT, Cuber P, Willis K, Bernardini F, Page NM, Haghighat-Khah RE. Driving down malaria transmission with engineered gene drives. Front Genet 2022; 13:891218. [PMID: 36338968 PMCID: PMC9627344 DOI: 10.3389/fgene.2022.891218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2022] [Accepted: 09/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
The last century has witnessed the introduction, establishment and expansion of mosquito-borne diseases into diverse new geographic ranges. Malaria is transmitted by female Anopheles mosquitoes. Despite making great strides over the past few decades in reducing the burden of malaria, transmission is now on the rise again, in part owing to the emergence of mosquito resistance to insecticides, antimalarial drug resistance and, more recently, the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in the reduced implementation efficiency of various control programs. The utility of genetically engineered gene drive mosquitoes as tools to decrease the burden of malaria by controlling the disease-transmitting mosquitoes is being evaluated. To date, there has been remarkable progress in the development of CRISPR/Cas9-based homing endonuclease designs in malaria mosquitoes due to successful proof-of-principle and multigenerational experiments. In this review, we examine the lessons learnt from the development of current CRISPR/Cas9-based homing endonuclease gene drives, providing a framework for the development of gene drive systems for the targeted control of wild malaria-transmitting mosquito populations that overcome challenges such as with evolving drive-resistance. We also discuss the additional substantial works required to progress the development of gene drive systems from scientific discovery to further study and subsequent field application in endemic settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- William T. Garrood
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Piotr Cuber
- Department of Molecular Biology, Core Research Laboratories, Natural History Museum, London, United Kingdom
| | - Katie Willis
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Federica Bernardini
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Nicole M. Page
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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16
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Libkind S, Baas A, Halter M, Patterson E, Fairbanks JP. An algebraic framework for structured epidemic modelling. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2022; 380:20210309. [PMID: 35965465 PMCID: PMC9376710 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2021] [Accepted: 06/07/2022] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Pandemic management requires that scientists rapidly formulate and analyse epidemiological models in order to forecast the spread of disease and the effects of mitigation strategies. Scientists must modify existing models and create novel ones in light of new biological data and policy changes such as social distancing and vaccination. Traditional scientific modelling workflows detach the structure of a model-its submodels and their interactions-from its implementation in software. Consequently, incorporating local changes to model components may require global edits to the code base through a manual, time-intensive and error-prone process. We propose a compositional modelling framework that uses high-level algebraic structures to capture domain-specific scientific knowledge and bridge the gap between how scientists think about models and the code that implements them. These algebraic structures, grounded in applied category theory, simplify and expedite modelling tasks such as model specification, stratification, analysis and calibration. With their structure made explicit, models also become easier to communicate, criticize and refine in light of stakeholder feedback. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sophie Libkind
- Department of Mathematics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Andrew Baas
- Georgia Tech Research Institute, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Micah Halter
- Georgia Tech Research Institute, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - James P. Fairbanks
- Computer and Information Science and Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
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17
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Erguler K, Mendel J, Petrić DV, Petrić M, Kavran M, Demirok MC, Gunay F, Georgiades P, Alten B, Lelieveld J. A dynamically structured matrix population model for insect life histories observed under variable environmental conditions. Sci Rep 2022; 12:11587. [PMID: 35804074 PMCID: PMC9270365 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-15806-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 06/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Various environmental drivers influence life processes of insect vectors that transmit human disease. Life histories observed under experimental conditions can reveal such complex links; however, designing informative experiments for insects is challenging. Furthermore, inferences obtained under controlled conditions often extrapolate poorly to field conditions. Here, we introduce a pseudo-stage-structured population dynamics model to describe insect development as a renewal process with variable rates. The model permits representing realistic life stage durations under constant and variable environmental conditions. Using the model, we demonstrate how random environmental variations result in fluctuating development rates and affect stage duration. We apply the model to infer environmental dependencies from the life history observations of two common disease vectors, the southern (Culex quinquefasciatus) and northern (Culex pipiens) house mosquito. We identify photoperiod, in addition to temperature, as pivotal in regulating larva stage duration, and find that carefully timed life history observations under semi-field conditions accurately predict insect development throughout the year. The approach we describe augments existing methods of life table design and analysis, and contributes to the development of large-scale climate- and environment-driven population dynamics models for important disease vectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kamil Erguler
- The Cyprus Institute, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre (CARE-C), 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121, Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus.
| | - Jacob Mendel
- Department of Medical Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Dušan Veljko Petrić
- Laboratory for Medical and Veterinary Entomology, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | | | - Mihaela Kavran
- Laboratory for Medical and Veterinary Entomology, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Murat Can Demirok
- Biology Department, Ecology Division, VERG Laboratories, Faculty of Science, Hacettepe University, 06800, Beytepe-Ankara, Turkey
| | - Filiz Gunay
- Biology Department, Ecology Division, VERG Laboratories, Faculty of Science, Hacettepe University, 06800, Beytepe-Ankara, Turkey
| | - Pantelis Georgiades
- The Cyprus Institute, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre (CARE-C), 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121, Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus
| | - Bulent Alten
- Biology Department, Ecology Division, VERG Laboratories, Faculty of Science, Hacettepe University, 06800, Beytepe-Ankara, Turkey
| | - Jos Lelieveld
- The Cyprus Institute, Climate and Atmosphere Research Centre (CARE-C), 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, 2121, Aglantzia, Nicosia, Cyprus.,Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55128, Mainz, Germany
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18
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Liu Y, Champer J. Modelling homing suppression gene drive in haplodiploid organisms. Proc Biol Sci 2022; 289:20220320. [PMID: 35414240 PMCID: PMC9006016 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.0320] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Accepted: 03/21/2022] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Gene drives have shown great promise for suppression of pest populations. These engineered alleles can function by a variety of mechanisms, but the most common is the CRISPR homing drive, which converts wild-type alleles to drive alleles in the germline of heterozygotes. Some potential target species are haplodiploid, in which males develop from unfertilized eggs and thus have only one copy of each chromosome. This prevents drive conversion, a substantial disadvantage compared to diploids where drive conversion can take place in both sexes. Here, we study homing suppression gene drives in haplodiploids and find that a drive targeting a female fertility gene could still be successful. However, such drives are less powerful than in diploids and suffer more from functional resistance alleles. They are substantially more vulnerable to high resistance allele formation in the embryo owing to maternally deposited Cas9 and guide RNA and also to somatic cleavage activity. Examining spatial models where organisms move over a continuous landscape, we find that haplodiploid suppression drives surprisingly perform nearly as well as in diploids, possibly owing to their ability to spread further before inducing strong suppression. Together, these results indicate that gene drive can potentially be used to effectively suppress haplodiploid populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yiran Liu
- Center for Bioinformatics, School of Life Sciences, Peking-Tsinghua Center for Life Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 People's Republic of China
| | - Jackson Champer
- Center for Bioinformatics, School of Life Sciences, Peking-Tsinghua Center for Life Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 People's Republic of China
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19
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Devos Y, Mumford JD, Bonsall MB, Glandorf DCM, Quemada HD. Risk management recommendations for environmental releases of gene drive modified insects. Biotechnol Adv 2021; 54:107807. [PMID: 34314837 DOI: 10.1016/j.biotechadv.2021.107807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2021] [Revised: 07/01/2021] [Accepted: 07/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
The ability to engineer gene drives (genetic elements that bias their own inheritance) has sparked enthusiasm and concerns. Engineered gene drives could potentially be used to address long-standing challenges in the control of insect disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species, or help to rescue endangered species. However, risk concerns and uncertainty associated with potential environmental release of gene drive modified insects (GDMIs) have led some stakeholders to call for a global moratorium on such releases or the application of other strict precautionary measures to mitigate perceived risk assessment and risk management challenges. Instead, we provide recommendations that may help to improve the relevance of risk assessment and risk management frameworks for environmental releases of GDMIs. These recommendations include: (1) developing additional and more practical risk assessment guidance to ensure appropriate levels of safety; (2) making policy goals and regulatory decision-making criteria operational for use in risk assessment so that what constitutes harm is clearly defined; (3) ensuring a more dynamic interplay between risk assessment and risk management to manage uncertainty through closely interlinked pre-release modelling and post-release monitoring; (4) considering potential risks against potential benefits, and comparing them with those of alternative actions to account for a wider (management) context; and (5) implementing a modular, phased approach to authorisations for incremental acceptance and management of risks and uncertainty. Along with providing stakeholder engagement opportunities in the risk analysis process, the recommendations proposed may enable risk managers to make choices that are more proportionate and adaptive to potential risks, uncertainty and benefits of GDMI applications, and socially robust.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yann Devos
- Scientific Committee and Emerging Risk (SCER) Unit, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Parma, Italy.
| | - John D Mumford
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Ascot, United Kingdom
| | | | - Debora C M Glandorf
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Hector D Quemada
- Department of Biological Sciences, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI, United States
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20
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Devos Y, Mumford JD, Bonsall MB, Camargo AM, Firbank LG, Glandorf DCM, Nogué F, Paraskevopoulos K, Wimmer EA. Potential use of gene drive modified insects against disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species poses new challenges for risk assessment. Crit Rev Biotechnol 2021; 42:254-270. [PMID: 34167401 DOI: 10.1080/07388551.2021.1933891] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Potential future application of engineered gene drives (GDs), which bias their own inheritance and can spread genetic modifications in wild target populations, has sparked both enthusiasm and concern. Engineered GDs in insects could potentially be used to address long-standing challenges in control of disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species, or help to rescue endangered species, and thus provide important public benefits. However, there are concerns that the deliberate environmental release of GD modified insects may pose different or new harms to animal and human health and the wider environment, and raise novel challenges for risk assessment. Risk assessors, risk managers, developers, potential applicants and other stakeholders at many levels are currently discussing whether there is a need to develop new or additional risk assessment guidance for the environmental release of GD modified organisms, including insects. Developing new or additional guidance that is useful and practical is a challenge, especially at an international level, as risk assessors, risk managers and many other stakeholders have different, often contrasting, opinions and perspectives toward the environmental release of GD modified organisms, and on the adequacy of current risk assessment frameworks for such organisms. Here, we offer recommendations to overcome some of the challenges associated with the potential future development of new or additional risk assessment guidance for GD modified insects and provide considerations on areas where further risk assessment guidance may be required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yann Devos
- GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Parma, Italy
| | - John D Mumford
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK
| | | | - Ana M Camargo
- GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Parma, Italy
| | | | - Debora C M Glandorf
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Fabien Nogué
- Institut Jean-Pierre Bourgin, INRAE, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Versailles, France
| | | | - Ernst A Wimmer
- Johann Friedrich Blumenbach Institute of Zoology and Anthropology, GZMB, Georg August University, Göttingen, Germany
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