1
|
Sparks MS, Farahbakhsh I, Anand M, Bauch CT, Conlon KC, East JD, Li T, Lickley M, Garcia-Menendez F, Monier E, Saari RK. Health and equity implications of individual adaptation to air pollution in a changing climate. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2215685121. [PMID: 38227646 PMCID: PMC10835109 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2215685121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 11/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/18/2024] Open
Abstract
Future climate change can cause more days with poor air quality. This could trigger more alerts telling people to stay inside to protect themselves, with potential consequences for health and health equity. Here, we study the change in US air quality alerts over this century due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), who they may affect, and how they may respond. We find air quality alerts increase by over 1 mo per year in the eastern United States by 2100 and quadruple on average. They predominantly affect areas with high Black populations and leakier homes, exacerbating existing inequalities and impacting those less able to adapt. Reducing emissions can offer significant annual health benefits ($5,400 per person) by mitigating the effect of climate change on air pollution and its associated risks of early death. Relying on people to adapt, instead, would require them to stay inside, with doors and windows closed, for an extra 142 d per year, at an average cost of $11,000 per person. It appears likelier, however, that people will achieve minimal protection without policy to increase adaptation rates. Boosting adaptation can offer net benefits, even alongside deep emission cuts. New adaptation policies could, for example: reduce adaptation costs; reduce infiltration and improve indoor air quality; increase awareness of alerts and adaptation; and provide measures for those working or living outdoors. Reducing emissions, conversely, lowers everyone's need to adapt, and protects those who cannot adapt. Equitably protecting human health from air pollution under climate change requires both mitigation and adaptation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Matt S. Sparks
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ONN2L 3G1, Canada
| | - Isaiah Farahbakhsh
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Waterloo, ONN1G 2W1, Canada
| | - Madhur Anand
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Waterloo, ONN1G 2W1, Canada
| | - Chris T. Bauch
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ONN2L 3G, Canada
| | - Kathryn C. Conlon
- School of Medicine, Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA95616
- School of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of California, Davis, CA95616
| | - James D. East
- Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC27695
| | - Tianyuan Li
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ONN2L 3G1, Canada
| | - Megan Lickley
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA02139N
| | - Fernando Garcia-Menendez
- Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC27695
| | - Erwan Monier
- Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA95616
| | - Rebecca K. Saari
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ONN2L 3G1, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Muccione V, Biesbroek R, Harper S, Haasnoot M. Towards a more integrated research framework for heat-related health risks and adaptation. Lancet Planet Health 2024; 8:e61-e67. [PMID: 38199725 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00254-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Revised: 10/10/2023] [Accepted: 11/02/2023] [Indexed: 01/12/2024]
Abstract
Advances in research on current and projected heat-related risks from climate change and the associated responses have rapidly developed over the past decade. Modelling architectures of climate impacts and heat-related health risks have become increasingly sophisticated alongside a growing number of experiments and socioeconomic studies, and possible options for heat-related health adaptation are increasingly being catalogued and assessed. However, despite this progress, these efforts often remain isolated streams of research, substantially hampering our ability to contribute to evidence-informed decision making on responding to heat-related health risks. We argue that the integration of scientific efforts towards more holistic research is urgently needed to tackle fragmented evidence and identify crucial knowledge gaps, so that health research can better anticipate and respond to heat-related health risks in the context of a changing climate. In this Personal View, we outline six building blocks, each constituting a research stream, but each needed as part of a more integrated research framework-namely, projected heat-related health risks; adaptation options; the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation; synergies, trade-offs, and co-benefits of adaptation; adaptation limits and residual risks; and adaptation pathways. We outline their respective importance and discuss their benefits for health-related research and policy.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Veruska Muccione
- Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
| | - Robbert Biesbroek
- Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Sherilee Harper
- School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
| | - Marjolijn Haasnoot
- Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Chua PLC, Takane Y, Ng CFS, Oka K, Honda Y, Kim Y, Hashizume M. Net impact of air conditioning on heat-related mortality in Japanese cities. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2023; 181:108310. [PMID: 37951014 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.108310] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Revised: 10/02/2023] [Accepted: 11/05/2023] [Indexed: 11/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Air conditioning (AC) presents a viable means of tackling the ill-effects of heat on human health. However, AC releases additional anthropogenic heat outdoors, and this could be detrimental to human health, especially in urban communities. This study determined the excess heat-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic heat from AC use under various projected global warming scenarios in seven Japanese cities. The overall protection from AC use was also measured. METHODS Daily average 2-meter temperatures in the hottest month of August from 2000 to 2010 were modeled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with BEP+BEM (building effect parameterization and building energy model). Risk functions for heat-mortality associations were generated with and without AC use from a two-stage time series analysis. We coupled simulated August temperatures and heat-mortality risk functions to estimate averted deaths and unavoidable deaths from AC use. RESULTS Anthropogenic heat from AC use slightly augmented the daily urban temperatures by 0.046 °C in Augusts of 2000-2010 and up to 0.181 °C in a future with 3 °C urban warming. This temperature rise was attributable to 3.1-3.5 % of heat-related deaths in Augusts of 2000-2010 under various urban warming scenarios. About 36-47 % of heat-related deaths could be averted by air conditioning use under various urban warming scenarios. DISCUSSION AC has a valuable protective effect from heat despite some unavoidable mortality from anthropogenic heat release. Overall, the use of AC as a major adaptive strategy requires careful consideration.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Paul L C Chua
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yuya Takane
- Environmental Management Research Institute, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Kazutaka Oka
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Mathewos Y, Abate B, Dadi M. Characterization of the skill of the CORDEX-Africa regional climate models to simulate regional climate setting in the East African Transboundary Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia. Heliyon 2023; 9:e20379. [PMID: 37810830 PMCID: PMC10550630 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20379] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2023] [Revised: 09/20/2023] [Accepted: 09/20/2023] [Indexed: 10/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Regional climate models (RCMs) that produce good outputs in one region or for specific variables may underperform for others. Thereby, assessing the performance of various model simulations and their corresponding mean ensemble is critical in identifying the most suitable models. In this regard, a study was conducted to evaluate the performance of ten RCMs against observations from multiple ground-based stations in the East African Transboundary Omo Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia, during the baseline period of 1986-2005. The study evaluated the models' ability to replicate various aspects of climatic variables and their corresponding statistical indicators. The results confirmed that RCMs have varying abilities to reproduce climatic conditions across the basin. The ensembles and RACMO22T (EC-EARTH) were better at replicating the average annual precipitation distribution. Meanwhile, the CCLM4-8-17 (MPI) together with the ensembles better captured the measured precipitation annually, despite the discrepancies in the actual magnitudes. All RCMs were able to simulate the seasonal precipitation patterns effectively, with RACMO22T (EC-EARTH), CCLM4-8-17 (CNRM), RCA4 (CNRM), CCLM4-8-17 (MPI), and REMO2009 (MPI) models captured superior, excluding the maximum value. Interannual and seasonal rainfall pattern variations were more significant than variations in air temperature. Additionally, a better correlation was observed between actual and simulated precipitation at multiple separate monitoring places. The RCA4 (MPI) and CCLM4-8-17 (MPI) demonstrated reasonable minimum and maximum temperatures. The RCA4 (MIROC5) model was more effective in reproducing extreme precipitation events. However, all RCMs and their ensembles tended to overestimate the return periods of these events. In general, the research highlights the importance of selecting reliable RCMs that better replicate observed climatic settings and employing the ensemble mean of top-performing models following systematic bias adjustment for a specific application.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yonas Mathewos
- Faculty of Biosystems and Water Resources Engineering, Institute of Technology, Hawassa University, Ethiopia
| | - Brook Abate
- College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Addis Ababa Science and Technology University, Ethiopia
| | - Mulugeta Dadi
- Faculty of Biosystems and Water Resources Engineering, Institute of Technology, Hawassa University, Ethiopia
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Kiarsi M, Amiresmaili M, Mahmoodi MR, Farahmandnia H, Nakhaee N, Zareiyan A, Aghababaeian H. Heat waves and adaptation: A global systematic review. J Therm Biol 2023; 116:103588. [PMID: 37499408 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2023.103588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2021] [Revised: 02/14/2023] [Accepted: 04/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/29/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Given the increasing trend of global warming and extreme weather conditions, including heat waves and its effects on health, the present study was done to investigate adaptive behaviors of communities in the world for combating heat waves. METHOD ology: In this systematic review, out of 1529 results, 57 relevant and authoritative English papers on adaptation to heat waves hazard were extracted and evaluated using valid keywords from valid databases (PubMed, WOS, EMBASE, and Scopus). In addition, multiple screening steps were done and then, the selected papers were qualitatively assessed. Evaluation results were summarized using an Extraction Table. RESULTS In this paper, the adaptive behaviors for combating heat waves hazard were summarized into 11 categories: Education and awareness raising, Adaptation of critical infrastructure, Governments measures, Health-related measures, Application of early warning system, Protective behaviors in workplace, Physical condition, Adaptive individual behaviors, Design and architecture of the building, Green infrastructure (green cover), and Urban design. CONCLUSION The findings of this study showed that community actions have significant effects on adaptation to heat wave. Therefore, for reducing heat wave-related negative health effects and vulnerability, more attention should be paid to the above-mentioned actions for mitigation, preparation, and responding regarding heat waves. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42021257747.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Maryam Kiarsi
- Department of Medical Emergencies, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran; Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran.
| | - Mohammadreza Amiresmaili
- Health in Disasters and Emergencies Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran; Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Management and Medical Information Sciences, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Mohammad Reza Mahmoodi
- Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Management and Medical Information Sciences, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran; Physiology Research Center, Institute of Neuropharmacology, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Department of Nutrition, Faculty of Public Health, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Hojjat Farahmandnia
- Health in Disasters and Emergencies Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran; Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, School of Management and Medical Information Sciences, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Nouzar Nakhaee
- Health in Disasters and Emergencies Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran; Health Services Management Research Center, Institute of Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Armin Zareiyan
- Public Health Department, Health in Emergencies and Disasters Department, Nursing Faculty, AJA University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
| | - Hamidreza Aghababaeian
- Department of Medical Emergencies, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran; Center for Climate Change and Health Research (CCCHR), Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran.
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Qiu M, Ratledge N, Azevedo IML, Diffenbaugh NS, Burke M. Drought impacts on the electricity system, emissions, and air quality in the western United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2300395120. [PMID: 37410866 PMCID: PMC10334796 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2300395120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2023] [Accepted: 05/26/2023] [Indexed: 07/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The western United States has experienced severe drought in recent decades, and climate models project increased drought risk in the future. This increased drying could have important implications for the region's interconnected, hydropower-dependent electricity systems. Using power-plant level generation and emissions data from 2001 to 2021, we quantify the impacts of drought on the operation of fossil fuel plants and the associated impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air quality, and human health. We find that under extreme drought, electricity generation from individual fossil fuel plants can increase up to 65% relative to average conditions, mainly due to the need to substitute for reduced hydropower. Over 54% of this drought-induced generation is transboundary, with drought in one electricity region leading to net imports of electricity and thus increased pollutant emissions from power plants in other regions. These drought-induced emission increases have detectable impacts on local air quality, as measured by proximate pollution monitors. We estimate that the monetized costs of excess mortality and GHG emissions from drought-induced fossil generation are 1.2 to 2.5x the reported direct economic costs from lost hydro production and increased demand. Combining climate model estimates of future drying with stylized energy-transition scenarios suggests that these drought-induced impacts are likely to remain large even under aggressive renewables expansion, suggesting that more ambitious and targeted measures are needed to mitigate the emissions and health burden from the electricity sector during drought.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Minghao Qiu
- Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
- Center for Innovation in Global Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
| | - Nathan Ratledge
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
| | - Inés M. L. Azevedo
- Department of Energy Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
| | | | - Marshall Burke
- Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
- Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
- National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA02138
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Limaye VS, Magal A, Joshi J, Maji S, Dutta P, Rajput P, Pingle S, Madan P, Mukerjee P, Bano S, Beig G, Mavalankar D, Jaiswal A, Knowlton K. Air quality and health co-benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation actions by 2030: an interdisciplinary modeling study in Ahmedabad, India. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, HEALTH : ERH 2023; 1:021003. [PMID: 36873423 PMCID: PMC9975964 DOI: 10.1088/2752-5309/aca7d8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2022] [Revised: 10/31/2022] [Accepted: 12/01/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
Climate change-driven temperature increases worsen air quality in places where coal combustion powers electricity for air conditioning. Climate solutions that substitute clean and renewable energy in place of polluting coal and promote adaptation to warming through reflective cool roofs can reduce cooling energy demand in buildings, lower power sector carbon emissions, and improve air quality and health. We investigate the air quality and health co-benefits of climate solutions in Ahmedabad, India-a city where air pollution levels exceed national health-based standards-through an interdisciplinary modeling approach. Using a 2018 baseline, we quantify changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and all-cause mortality in 2030 from increasing renewable energy use (mitigation) and expanding Ahmedabad's cool roofs heat resilience program (adaptation). We apply local demographic and health data and compare a 2030 mitigation and adaptation (M&A) scenario to a 2030 business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (without climate change response actions), each relative to 2018 pollution levels. We estimate that the 2030 BAU scenario results in an increase of PM2.5 air pollution of 4.13 µg m-3 from 2018 compared to a 0.11 µg m-3 decline from 2018 under the 2030 M&A scenario. Reduced PM2.5 air pollution under 2030 M&A results in 1216-1414 fewer premature all-cause deaths annually compared to 2030 BAU. Achievement of National Clean Air Programme, National Ambient Air Quality Standards, or World Health Organization annual PM2.5 Air Quality Guideline targets in 2030 results in up to 6510, 9047, or 17 369 fewer annual deaths, respectively, relative to 2030 BAU. This comprehensive modeling method is adaptable to estimate local air quality and health co-benefits in other settings by integrating climate, energy, cooling, land cover, air pollution, and health data. Our findings demonstrate that city-level climate change response policies can achieve substantial air quality and health co-benefits. Such work can inform public discourse on the near-term health benefits of mitigation and adaptation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Vijay S Limaye
- Natural Resources Defense Council 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011, United States of America
| | - Akhilesh Magal
- Gujarat Energy and Research Management Institute (Former), PDPU Road, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382007, India
| | - Jaykumar Joshi
- Gujarat Energy and Research Management Institute (Former), PDPU Road, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, 382007, India
| | - Sujit Maji
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr Homi Bhabha Road, Panchawati, Pashan, Pune, Maharashtra 411008, India
| | - Priya Dutta
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, NH-147, Palaj Village, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382042, India
| | - Prashant Rajput
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, NH-147, Palaj Village, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382042, India
| | - Shyam Pingle
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, NH-147, Palaj Village, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382042, India
| | - Prima Madan
- Natural Resources Defense Council 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011, United States of America
| | - Polash Mukerjee
- Natural Resources Defense Council 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011, United States of America
| | - Shahana Bano
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr Homi Bhabha Road, Panchawati, Pashan, Pune, Maharashtra 411008, India
| | - Gufran Beig
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr Homi Bhabha Road, Panchawati, Pashan, Pune, Maharashtra 411008, India
| | - Dileep Mavalankar
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, NH-147, Palaj Village, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382042, India
| | - Anjali Jaiswal
- Natural Resources Defense Council 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011, United States of America
| | - Kim Knowlton
- Natural Resources Defense Council 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011, United States of America
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 W 168th Street, New York, NY 10032, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Witt C, Liebers U. Urbane Hitze- und Luftbelastung - was muss der Kliniker wissen? PNEUMO NEWS 2023; 15:38-45. [PMID: 37128240 PMCID: PMC10132920 DOI: 10.1007/s15033-023-3476-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Christian Witt
- Charité/CCM/Infektiol./Pneumologie, Klinik f. Infektiologie u. Pneumologie/Ambulante Pneumologie, Sauerbruchweg 3, 10117 Berlin, Deutschland
| | - Uta Liebers
- Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Klinik f. Infektiologie u. Pneumologie/Ambulante Pneumologie, Charitéplatz 1, 10117 Berlin, Deutschland
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Joshi J, Magal A, Limaye VS, Madan P, Jaiswal A, Mavalankar D, Knowlton K. Climate change and 2030 cooling demand in Ahmedabad, India: opportunities for expansion of renewable energy and cool roofs. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE 2022; 27:44. [PMID: 35967931 PMCID: PMC9360156 DOI: 10.1007/s11027-022-10019-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2021] [Accepted: 07/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Most of India's current electricity demand is met by combustion of fossil fuels, particularly coal. But the country has embarked on a major expansion of renewable energy and aims for half of its electricity needs to be met by renewable sources by 2030. As climate change-driven temperature increases continue to threaten India's population and drive increased demand for air conditioning, there is a need to estimate the local benefits of policies that increase renewable energy capacity and reduce cooling demand in buildings. We investigate the impacts of climate change-driven temperature increases, along with population and economic growth, on demand for electricity to cool buildings in the Indian city of Ahmedabad between 2018 and 2030. We estimate the share of energy demand met by coal-fired power plants versus renewable energy in 2030, and the cooling energy demand effects of expanded cool roof adaptation in the city. We find renewable energy capacity could increase from meeting 9% of cooling energy demand in 2018 to 45% in 2030. Our modeling indicates a near doubling in total electricity supply and a nearly threefold growth in cooling demand by 2030. Expansion of cool roofs to 20% of total roof area (associated with a 0.21 TWh reduction in cooling demand between 2018 and 2030) could more than offset the city's climate change-driven 2030 increase in cooling demand (0.17 TWh/year). This study establishes a framework for linking climate, land cover, and energy models to help policymakers better prepare for growing cooling energy demand under a changing climate.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jaykumar Joshi
- Gujarat Energy Research and Management Institute (Former), Gandhinagar, India
| | - Akhilesh Magal
- Gujarat Energy Research and Management Institute (Former), Gandhinagar, India
| | | | - Prima Madan
- Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, NY USA
| | | | | | - Kim Knowlton
- Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, NY USA
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY USA
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
van den Bosch M, Basagaña X, Mudu P, Kendrovski V, Maitre L, Hjertager Krog N, Aasvang GM, Grazuleviciene R, McEachan R, Vrijheid M, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ. Green CURIOCITY: a study protocol for a European birth cohort study analysing childhood heat-related health impacts and protective effects of urban natural environments. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e052537. [PMID: 35074814 PMCID: PMC8788192 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-052537] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2021] [Accepted: 01/04/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The European climate is getting warmer and the impact on childhood health and development is insufficiently understood. Equally, how heat-related health risks can be reduced through nature-based solutions, such as exposure to urban natural environments, is unknown. Green CURe In Outdoor CITY spaces (Green CURIOCITY) will analyse how heat exposure during pregnancy affects birth outcomes and how long-term heat exposure may influence children's neurodevelopment. We will also investigate if adverse effects can be mitigated by urban natural environments. A final goal is to visualise intraurban patterns of heat vulnerability and assist planning towards healthier cities. METHODS AND ANALYSIS We will use existing data from the Human Early-Life Exposure cohort, which includes information on birth outcomes and neurodevelopment from six European birth cohorts. The cohort is linked to data on prenatal heat exposure and impact on birth outcomes will be analysed with logistic regression models, adjusting for air pollution and noise and sociobehavioural covariates. Similarly, impact of cumulative and immediate heat exposure on neurodevelopmental outcomes at age 5 will be assessed. For both analyses, the potentially moderating impact of natural environments will be quantified. For visualisation, Geographical information systems data will be combined to develop vulnerability maps, demonstrating urban 'hot spots' where the risk of negative impacts of heat is aggravated due to sociodemographic and land use patterns. Finally, geospatial and meteorological data will be used for informing GreenUr, an existing software prototype developed by the WHO Regional Office for Europe to quantify health impacts and augment policy tools for urban green space planning. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The protocol was approved by the Comité Ético de Investigación Clínica Parc de Salut MAR, Spain. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at policy events. Through stakeholder engagement, the results will also reach user groups and practitioners.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Matilda van den Bosch
- Air pollution and Urban Environment, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Xavier Basagaña
- Air pollution and Urban Environment, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Pierpaolo Mudu
- World Health Organization European Centre for Environment and Health, Bonn, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany
| | - Vladimir Kendrovski
- World Health Organization European Centre for Environment and Health, Bonn, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany
| | - Léa Maitre
- Air pollution and Urban Environment, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Gunn Marit Aasvang
- Air Quality and Noise, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Regina Grazuleviciene
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Vytauto Didziojo Universitetas, Kaunas, Lithuania
| | | | - Martine Vrijheid
- Air pollution and Urban Environment, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Mark J Nieuwenhuijsen
- Air pollution and Urban Environment, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
- Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Morris NB, Chaseling GK, English T, Gruss F, Maideen MFB, Capon A, Jay O. Electric fan use for cooling during hot weather: a biophysical modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5:e368-e377. [PMID: 34119011 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00136-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2020] [Revised: 04/28/2021] [Accepted: 04/29/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In hot weather, electric fans can potentially provide effective cooling for people, with lower greenhouse gas emissions and cost than air conditioning. However, international public health organisations regularly discourage fan use in temperatures higher than 35°C, despite little evidence. We aimed to determine humidity-dependent temperature thresholds at which electric fans would become detrimental in different age groups. METHODS We used biophysical modelling to determine the upper humidity-dependent temperature thresholds at which fan use would become detrimental (ie, worsen heat stress) for healthy young adults (aged 18-40 years), healthy older adults (aged ≥65 years), and older adults taking anticholinergic medication. We also obtained hourly environmental data for the period Jan 1, 2007, to Dec 31, 2019, for 108 populous cities to determine the number of days fan use would be effective for cooling, standardised to a 31-day hot weather month. We established simplified temperature thresholds for future fan use recommendations on the basis of temperatures below which fan use would never have been detrimental between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2019, across all prevailing levels of ambient humidity. FINDINGS According to our model, fan use would have been beneficial on 30·0 (96·6%) of 31 hot weather days for healthy young adults and 29·4 (94·9%) of 31 hot weather days for both older adults and older adults taking anticholinergic medication between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2019. Adherence to the current WHO recommendation of fan use below temperatures of 35°C only, fan use would have been recommended on 27·2 days (87·7%) of 31 hot weather days. According to our simplified thresholds for fan use (at temperatures <39·0°C for healthy young adults, <38·0°C for healthy older adults, and <37·0°C for older adults taking anticholinergic medication), fan use would have been recommended on 29·6 (95·5%) of 31 hot weather days in healthy young adults, 29·4 (94·8%) days in healthy older adults, and 28·8 (93·0%) days in older adults taking anticholinergic medication between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2019. INTERPRETATION Electric fan use, particularly for healthy young adults, would not have worsened heat stress on the majority of study days between 2007 and 2019. Our newly proposed thresholds for fan use provide simple guidelines that improve future heatwave fan use recommendations. FUNDING None.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nathan B Morris
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratoryxs, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Georgia K Chaseling
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratoryxs, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Department of Pharmacology and Physiology, University of Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Timothy English
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratoryxs, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Faculty of Medicine and Health, and Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Fabian Gruss
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratoryxs, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | | | - Anthony Capon
- Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Monash Sustainable Development Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Ollie Jay
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratoryxs, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Faculty of Medicine and Health, and Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Tools and Methods to Include Health in Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies and Policies: A Scoping Review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18052547. [PMID: 33806462 PMCID: PMC7967510 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18052547] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2021] [Revised: 02/25/2021] [Accepted: 02/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Climate change represents a serious threat to the health and well-being of populations. Today, many countries, regions, and cities around the world are implementing policies and strategies to adapt to climate change and mitigate its effects. A scoping review was performed to identify tools and methods that help integrate health into climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and strategies. The literature search includes scientific and grey literature. The scientific literature was conducted using PubMed, Elsevier Embase, and Web of Science databases. A grey literature web search was performed to complement the results. A total of 35 studies (28 from the scientific literature and 7 from the grey literature) were finally included. A large majority of research articles (24/28) and almost all reports (6/7) from the grey literature were published after 2010. Results show that the tools that were found most frequently are the nested models (12/35), health impact assessment (6/35), vulnerability and adaptation assessment (3/35), conceptual frameworks (3/35), and mixed methods (3/35). This review shows an increasing interest in the topic of developing tools to better manage health issues in adaptation and mitigation strategies, with a recent increase in the number of publications. Additional analyses of tools’ effectiveness should be conducted in further studies.
Collapse
|
13
|
Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Beagley J, Belesova K, Boykoff M, Byass P, Cai W, Campbell-Lendrum D, Capstick S, Chambers J, Coleman S, Dalin C, Daly M, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Di Napoli C, Dominguez-Salas P, Drummond P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Georgeson L, Golder S, Grace D, Graham H, Haggar P, Hamilton I, Hartinger S, Hess J, Hsu SC, Hughes N, Jankin Mikhaylov S, Jimenez MP, Kelman I, Kennard H, Kiesewetter G, Kinney PL, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lampard P, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Lowe R, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McGushin A, McMichael C, Milner J, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Sewe MO, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pencheon D, Quinn R, Rabbaniha M, Robinson E, Rocklöv J, Romanello M, Semenza JC, Sherman J, Shi L, Springmann M, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Triñanes J, Shumake-Guillemot J, Vu B, Wilkinson P, Winning M, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A. The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises. Lancet 2021; 397:129-170. [PMID: 33278353 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32290-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 670] [Impact Index Per Article: 223.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2020] [Revised: 08/03/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
For the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nick Watts
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Markus Amann
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Nigel Arnell
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany
| | - Jessica Beagley
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Kristine Belesova
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Maxwell Boykoff
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Peter Byass
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
- Environment, Climate Change and Health Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Samantha Coleman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Carole Dalin
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Meaghan Daly
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy
| | - Michael Davies
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Paula Dominguez-Salas
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Robert Dubrow
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew Eckelman
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | | | - Su Golder
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Delia Grace
- CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Human Nutrition and Health, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA
| | - Paul Haggar
- School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
| | - Ian Hamilton
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Stella Hartinger
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Jeremy Hess
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nick Hughes
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Marcia P Jimenez
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Harry Kennard
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Patrick L Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tord Kjellstrom
- Health and Environment International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand
| | | | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Bruno Lemke
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Yang Liu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy McAllister
- Center for Energy Markets, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Alice McGushin
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Karyn Morrissey
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | | | - Kris A Murray
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK; Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Bakau, The Gambia
| | - Tara Neville
- Environment, Climate Change and Health Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | | | - Matthias Otto
- Department of Arts, Media and Digital Technologies, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Fereidoon Owfi
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olivia Pearman
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - David Pencheon
- Medical and Health School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Ruth Quinn
- Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Mahnaz Rabbaniha
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elizabeth Robinson
- School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Scientific Assessment Section, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden
| | - Jodi Sherman
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Joaquin Triñanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, CRETUS Institute, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | | | - Bryan Vu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Winning
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Office of the Vice Provost for Research, University College London, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Limaye VS. Making the climate crisis personal through a focus on human health. CLIMATIC CHANGE 2021; 166:43. [PMID: 34155416 PMCID: PMC8210734 DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03107-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2021] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Climate change-driven health impacts are serious, widespread, and costly. Importantly, such damages are largely absent from policy debates around the costs of delay and inaction on this crisis. While climate change is a global problem, its impacts are localized and personal, and there is growing demand for specific information on how climate change affects human health in different places. Existing research indicates that climate-fueled health problems are growing, and that investments in reducing carbon pollution and improving community resilience could help to avoid tens to hundreds of billions of dollars in climate-sensitive health impacts across the USA each year, including those stemming from extreme heat, air pollution, hurricanes, and wildfires. Science that explores the underappreciated local health impacts and health-related costs of climate change can enhance advocacy by demonstrating the need to both address the root causes of climate change and enhance climate resilience in vulnerable communities. The climate crisis has historically been predominantly conceived as a global environmental challenge; examination of climate impacts on public health enables researchers to localize this urgent problem for members of the public and policymakers. In turn, approaches to climate science that focus on health can make dangerous climate impacts and the need for cost-effective solutions more salient and tangible.
Collapse
|
15
|
A Review of Studies Involving the Effects of Climate Change on the Energy Consumption for Building Heating and Cooling. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 18:ijerph18010040. [PMID: 33374644 PMCID: PMC7793515 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18010040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2020] [Revised: 12/10/2020] [Accepted: 12/18/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The world is faced with significant climate change, rapid urbanization, massive energy consumption, and tremendous pressure to reduce greenhouse gases. Building heating and cooling is one primary source of energy consumption and anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. First, this review presents previous studies that estimate the specific amount of climate change impact on building heating and cooling energy consumption, using the statistical method, physical model method, comprehensive assessment model method, and the combination method of statistical and physical model methods. Then, because the heating and cooling degree days indices can simply and reliably indicate the effects of climate on building heating and cooling energy consumption, previous studies were reviewed from the aspects of heating and cooling degree days indices, regional spatial-temporal variations in degree days and related indices, influencing factors of the spatial distributions of degree days, and the impacts of urbanization on degree days. Finally, several potential key issues or research directions were presented according to the research gaps or fields that need to be studied further in the future, such as developing methods to simply and accurately estimate the specified amounts of climate change impact on building cooling and heating energy consumption; using more effective methods to analyze the daytime, nighttime, and all-day spatial-temporal changes in different seasons in the past and future under various environment contexts by considering not only the air temperature but also the relative humidity, solar radiation, population, etc., and further exploring the corresponding more kinds of driving forces, including the various remotely sensed indices, albedo, nighttime light intensity, etc.; estimating the daytime, nighttime, and all-day impacts of urbanization on heating degree days (HDDs), cooling degree days (CDDs), and their sum (HDDs + CDDs) for vast cities in different environmental contexts at the station site, city, regional and global scales; producing and sharing of the related datasets; and analyzing the subsequent effects induced by climate change on the energy consumption for building heating and cooling, etc.
Collapse
|
16
|
Gallagher CL, Holloway T. Integrating Air Quality and Public Health Benefits in U.S. Decarbonization Strategies. Front Public Health 2020; 8:563358. [PMID: 33330312 PMCID: PMC7717953 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.563358] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2020] [Accepted: 08/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Research on air quality and human health “co-benefits” from climate mitigation strategies represents a growing area of policy-relevant scholarship. Compared to other aspects of climate and energy policy evaluation, however, there are still relatively few of these co-benefits analyses. This sparsity reflects a historical disconnect between research quantifying energy and climate, and research dealing with air quality and health. The air quality co-benefits of climate, clean energy, and transportation electrification policies are typically assessed with models spanning social, physical, chemical, and biological systems. This review article summarizes studies to date and presents methods used for these interdisciplinary analyses. Studies in the peer-reviewed literature (n = 26) have evaluated carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards, energy efficiency, renewable energy deployment, and clean transportation. A number of major findings have emerged from these studies: [1] decarbonization strategies can reduce air pollution disproportionally on the most polluted days; [2] renewable energy deployment and climate policies offer the highest health and economic benefits in regions with greater reliance on coal generation; [3] monetized air quality health co-benefits can offset costs of climate policy implementation; [4] monetized co-benefits typically exceed the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of renewable energies; [5] Electric vehicle (EV) adoption generally improves air quality on peak pollution days, but can result in ozone dis-benefits in urban centers due to the titration of ozone with nitrogen oxides. Drawing from these published studies, we review the state of knowledge on climate co-benefits to air quality and health, identifying opportunities for policy action and further research.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ciaran L Gallagher
- Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
| | - Tracey Holloway
- Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States.,Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
von Schneidemesser E, Driscoll C, Rieder HE, Schiferl LD. How will air quality effects on human health, crops and ecosystems change in the future? PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2020; 378:20190330. [PMID: 32981439 PMCID: PMC7536027 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2019.0330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/28/2020] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Future air quality will be driven by changes in air pollutant emissions, but also changes in climate. Here, we review the recent literature on future air quality scenarios and projected changes in effects on human health, crops and ecosystems. While there is overlap in the scenarios and models used for future projections of air quality and climate effects on human health and crops, similar efforts have not been widely conducted for ecosystems. Few studies have conducted joint assessments across more than one sector. Improvements in future air quality effects on human health are seen in emission reduction scenarios that are more ambitious than current legislation. Larger impacts result from changing particulate matter (PM) abundances than ozone burdens. Future global health burdens are dominated by changes in the Asian region. Expected future reductions in ozone outside of Asia will allow for increased crop production. Reductions in PM, although associated with much higher uncertainty, could offset some of this benefit. The responses of ecosystems to air pollution and climate change are long-term, complex, and interactive, and vary widely across biomes and over space and time. Air quality and climate policy should be linked or at least considered holistically, and managed as a multi-media problem. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Charles Driscoll
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244, USA
| | - Harald E. Rieder
- Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Gregor-Mendel Strasse 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - Luke D. Schiferl
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Chen K, Breitner S, Wolf K, Hampel R, Meisinger C, Heier M, von Scheidt W, Kuch B, Peters A, Schneider A. Temporal variations in the triggering of myocardial infarction by air temperature in Augsburg, Germany, 1987-2014. Eur Heart J 2020; 40:1600-1608. [PMID: 30859207 DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehz116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 78] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2018] [Revised: 10/17/2018] [Accepted: 02/18/2019] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
AIMS The association between air temperature and mortality has been shown to vary over time, but evidence of temporal changes in the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) is lacking. We aimed to estimate the temporal variations in the association between short-term exposures to air temperature and MI in the area of Augsburg, Germany. METHODS AND RESULTS Over a 28-years period from 1987 to 2014, a total of 27 310 cases of MI and coronary deaths were recorded. Daily meteorological parameters were measured in the study area. A time-stratified case-crossover analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the risk of MI associated with air temperature. Subgroup analyses were performed to identify subpopulations with changing susceptibility to air temperature. Results showed a non-significant decline in cold-related MI risks. Heat-related MI relative risk significantly increased from 0.93 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78-1.12] in 1987-2000 to 1.14 (95% CI: 1.00-1.29) in 2001-14. The same trend was also observed for recurrent and non-ST-segment elevation MI events. This increasing population susceptibility to heat was more evident in patients with diabetes mellitus and hyperlipidaemia. Future studies using multicentre MI registries at different climatic, demographic, and socioeconomic settings are warranted to confirm our findings. CONCLUSION We found evidence of rising population susceptibility to heat-related MI risk from 1987 to 2014, suggesting that exposure to heat should be considered as an environmental trigger of MI, especially under a warming climate.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kai Chen
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Susanne Breitner
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany.,Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Marchioninistr. 15, Munich, Germany
| | - Kathrin Wolf
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Regina Hampel
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Christa Meisinger
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, UNIKA-T, Neusässer Str. 47, Augsburg, Germany.,Independent Research Group Clinical Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research, Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Margit Heier
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany.,MONICA/KORA Myocardial Infarction Registry, Central Hospital of Augsburg, Stenglinstr. 2, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Wolfgang von Scheidt
- Department of Internal Medicine I - Cardiology, Central Hospital of Augsburg, Stenglinstr. 2, Augsburg, Germany
| | - Bernhard Kuch
- Department of Internal Medicine I - Cardiology, Central Hospital of Augsburg, Stenglinstr. 2, Augsburg, Germany.,Department of Internal Medicine/Cardiology, Hospital of Nördlingen, Stoffelsberg 4, Nördlingen, Germany
| | - Annette Peters
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany.,Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Marchioninistr. 15, Munich, Germany.,Partner-Site Munich, German Research Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Biedersteiner Straße 29, Munich, Germany
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, Neuherberg, Germany
| | | |
Collapse
|
19
|
Morris NB, Jay O, Flouris AD, Casanueva A, Gao C, Foster J, Havenith G, Nybo L. Sustainable solutions to mitigate occupational heat strain - an umbrella review of physiological effects and global health perspectives. Environ Health 2020; 19:95. [PMID: 32887627 PMCID: PMC7487490 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-020-00641-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2020] [Accepted: 08/12/2020] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Climate change is set to exacerbate occupational heat strain, the combined effect of environmental and internal heat stress on the body, threatening human health and wellbeing. Therefore, identifying effective, affordable, feasible and sustainable solutions to mitigate the negative effects on worker health and productivity, is an increasingly urgent need. OBJECTIVES To systematically identify and evaluate methods that mitigate occupational heat strain in order to provide scientific-based guidance for practitioners. METHODS An umbrella review was conducted in biomedical databases employing the following eligibility criteria: 1) ambient temperatures > 28 °C or hypohydrated participants, 2) healthy adults, 3) reported psychophysiological (thermal comfort, heart rate or core temperature) and/or performance (physical or cognitive) outcomes, 4) written in English, and 5) published before November 6, 2019. A second search for original research articles was performed to identify interventions of relevance but lacking systematic reviews. All identified interventions were independently evaluated by all co-authors on four point scales for effectiveness, cost, feasibility and environmental impact. RESULTS Following screening, 36 systematic reviews fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The most effective solutions at mitigating occupational heat strain were wearing specialized cooling garments, (physiological) heat acclimation, improving aerobic fitness, cold water immersion, and applying ventilation. Although air-conditioning and cooling garments in ideal settings provide best scores for effectiveness, the limited applicability in certain industrial settings, high economic cost and high environmental impact are drawbacks for these solutions. However, (physiological) acclimatization, planned breaks, shading and optimized clothing properties are attractive alternative solutions when economic and ecological sustainability aspects are included in the overall evaluation. DISCUSSION Choosing the most effective solution or combinations of methods to mitigate occupational heat strain will be scenario-specific. However, this paper provides a framework for integrating effectiveness, cost, feasibility (indoors and outdoor) and ecologic sustainability to provide occupational health and safety professionals with evidence-based guidelines.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nathan B. Morris
- Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports, Section for Integrative Physiology, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen N, Denmark
| | - Ollie Jay
- Thermal Ergonomics Laboratory, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Andreas D. Flouris
- FAME Laboratory, School of Exercise Science, University of Thessaly, Thessaly, Greece
| | - Ana Casanueva
- Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zurich Airport, Zurich, Switzerland
- Meteorology Group, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Sciences, University of Cantabria, Santander, Spain
| | - Chuansi Gao
- Thermal Environment Laboratory, Division of Ergonomics and Aerosol Technology, Department of Design Sciences, Faculty of Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Josh Foster
- Environmental Ergonomics Research Centre, Loughborough Design School, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
| | - George Havenith
- Environmental Ergonomics Research Centre, Loughborough Design School, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
| | - Lars Nybo
- Department of Nutrition, Exercise and Sports, Section for Integrative Physiology, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen N, Denmark
| |
Collapse
|
20
|
Gronlund CJ, Berrocal VJ. Modeling and comparing central and room air conditioning ownership and cold-season in-home thermal comfort using the American Housing Survey. JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 2020; 30:814-823. [PMID: 32203058 PMCID: PMC7483423 DOI: 10.1038/s41370-020-0220-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2019] [Revised: 01/10/2020] [Accepted: 02/07/2020] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Household-level information on central air conditioning (cenAC) and room air conditioning (rmAC) air conditioning and cold-weather thermal comfort are often missing from publicly available housing databases hindering research and action on climate adaptation and air pollution exposure reduction. We modeled these using information from the American Housing Survey for 2003-2013 and 140 US core-based statistical areas employing variables that would be present in publicly available parcel records. We present random-intercept logistic regression models with either cenAC, rmAC or "home was uncomfortably cold for 24 h or more" (tooCold) as outcome variables and housing value, rented vs. owned, age, and multi- vs. single-family, each interacted with cooling- or heating-degree days as predictors. The out-of-sample predicted probabilities for years 2015-2017 were compared with corresponding American Housing Survey values (0 or 1). Using a 0.5 probability threshold, the model had 63% specificity (true negative rate), and 91% sensitivity (true positive rate) for cenAC, while specificity and sensitivity for rmAC were 94% and 34%, respectively. Area-specific sensitivities and specificities varied widely. For tooCold, the overall sensitivity was effectively 0%. Future epidemiologic studies, heat vulnerability maps, and intervention screenings may reliably use these or similar AC models with parcel-level data to improve understanding of health risk and the spatial patterning of homes without AC.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Carina J Gronlund
- Social Environment and Health Program, Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 426 Thompson St., Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
| | | |
Collapse
|
21
|
Willingness to Pay for Urban Heat Island Mitigation: A Case Study of Singapore. CLIMATE 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/cli8070082] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
In many countries, urban heat island (UHI) effects come along with urbanization in metropolitan areas. They have relevant adverse effects on the health and wellbeing of citizens. Singapore is strongly affected by UHI. In this study, we assess Singaporeans’ willingness to pay (WTP) for UHI mitigation by implementing a contingent valuation analysis. Specifically, we employ a double-bounded dichotomous survey design on a representative sample of 1822 online respondents. We find that Singaporeans are willing to sacrifice on average 0.43% of their annual income to mitigate UHI. The total WTP for mitigation strategies among Singapore citizens and permanent residents is estimated at SGD$783.08 million per year, the equivalent of USD$563.80 per year. Our findings suggest that there is a positive and significant relationship between the size of UHI effects and the citizens’ WTP. People living in the region with the highest intensity of UHI are willing to pay 3.09 times more than those living in the region with the lowest UHI intensity. Furthermore, demographic and socio-economic characteristics are significant determinants of Singaporeans’ WTP. The WTP increases with income and education but decreases with age. Students, men, and people with children are willing to pay more. Additional analyses show that the level of UHI awareness, positive attitudes towards UHI mitigation strategies as well as preferences for outdoor activities are positively correlated with the WTP. Our findings suggest that citizens are aware of the impacts of UHI and support UHI mitigation measures to be financed by their taxes. Policy interventions to promote UHI-related education and disseminating UHI-related information might increase the support of UHI mitigation policies.
Collapse
|
22
|
Qi J, Ruan Z, Qian Z(M, Yin P, Yang Y, Acharya BK, Wang L, Lin H. Potential gains in life expectancy by attaining daily ambient fine particulate matter pollution standards in mainland China: A modeling study based on nationwide data. PLoS Med 2020; 17:e1003027. [PMID: 31951613 PMCID: PMC6968855 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003027] [Citation(s) in RCA: 80] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2019] [Accepted: 12/20/2019] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Ambient fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is one leading cause of disease burden, but no study has quantified the association between daily PM2.5 exposure and life expectancy. We aimed to assess the potential benefits in life expectancy by attaining the daily PM2.5 standards in 72 cities of China during 2013-2016. METHODS AND FINDINGS We applied a two-stage approach for the analysis. At the first stage, we used a generalized additive model (GAM) with a Gaussian link to examine the city-specific short-term association between daily PM2.5 and years of life lost (YLL); at the second stage, a random-effects meta-analysis was used to generate the regional and national estimations. We further estimated the potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) by assuming that ambient PM2.5 has met the Chinese National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS, 75 μg/m3) or the ambient air quality guideline (AQG) of the World Health Organization (WHO) (25 μg/m3). We also calculated the attributable fraction (AF), which denoted the proportion of YLL attributable to a higher-than-standards daily mean PM2.5 concentration. During the period from January 18, 2013 to December 31, 2016, we recorded 1,226,849 nonaccidental deaths in the study area. We observed significant associations between daily PM2.5 and YLL: each 10 μg/m3 increase in three-day-averaged (lag02) PM2.5 concentrations corresponded to an increment of 0.43 years of life lost (95% CI: 0.29-0.57). We estimated that 168,065.18 (95% CI: 114,144.91-221,985.45) and 68,684.95 (95% CI: 46,648.79-90,721.11) years of life lost can be avoided by achieving WHO's AQG and Chinese NAAQS in the study area, which corresponded to 0.14 (95% CI: 0.09-0.18) and 0.06 (95% CI: 0.04-0.07) years of gain in life expectancy for each death in these cities. We observed differential regional estimates across the 7 regions, with the highest gains in the Northwest region (0.28 years of gain [95% CI: 0.06-0.49]) and the lowest in the North region (0.08 [95% CI: 0.02-0.15]). Furthermore, using WHO's AQG and Chinese NAAQS as the references, we estimated that 1.00% (95% CI: 0.68%-1.32%) and 0.41% (95% CI: 0.28%-0.54%) of YLL could be attributable to the PM2.5 exposure at the national level. Findings from this study were mainly limited by the unavailability of data on individual PM2.5 exposure. CONCLUSIONS This study indicates that significantly longer life expectancy could be achieved by a reduction in the ambient PM2.5 concentrations. It also highlights the need to formulate a stricter ambient PM2.5 standard at both national and regional levels of China to protect the population's health.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jinlei Qi
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Zengliang Ruan
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Zhengmin (Min) Qian
- College for Public Health & Social Justice, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, Missouri, United States of America
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yin Yang
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Bipin Kumar Acharya
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Lijun Wang
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
- * E-mail: (LW); (HL)
| | - Hualiang Lin
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
- * E-mail: (LW); (HL)
| |
Collapse
|
23
|
Abstract
Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text. Reliable estimates of future health impacts due to climate change are needed to inform and contribute to the design of efficient adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, projecting health burdens associated to specific environmental stressors is a challenging task because of the complex risk patterns and inherent uncertainty of future climate scenarios. These assessments involve multidisciplinary knowledge, requiring expertise in epidemiology, statistics, and climate science, among other subjects. Here, we present a methodologic framework to estimate future health impacts under climate change scenarios based on a defined set of assumptions and advanced statistical techniques developed in time-series analysis in environmental epidemiology. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a step-by-step hands-on tutorial structured in well-defined sections that cover the main methodological steps and essential elements. Each section provides a thorough description of each step, along with a discussion on available analytical options and the rationale on the choices made in the proposed framework. The illustration is complemented with a practical example of study using real-world data and a series of R scripts included as Supplementary Digital Content; http://links.lww.com/EDE/B504, which facilitates its replication and extension on other environmental stressors, outcomes, study settings, and projection scenarios. Users should critically assess the potential modeling alternatives and modify the framework and R code to adapt them to their research on health impact projections.
Collapse
|
24
|
Limaye VS, Max W, Constible J, Knowlton K. Estimating the Health-Related Costs of 10 Climate-Sensitive U.S. Events During 2012. GEOHEALTH 2019; 3:245-265. [PMID: 32159045 PMCID: PMC7007172 DOI: 10.1029/2019gh000202] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2019] [Revised: 06/30/2019] [Accepted: 07/25/2019] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Climate change threatens human health, but there remains a lack of evidence on the economic toll of climate-sensitive public health impacts. We characterize human mortality and morbidity costs associated with 10 climate-sensitive case study events spanning 11 US states in 2012: wildfires in Colorado and Washington, ozone air pollution in Nevada, extreme heat in Wisconsin, infectious disease outbreaks of tick-borne Lyme disease in Michigan and mosquito-borne West Nile virus in Texas, extreme weather in Ohio, impacts of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey and New York, allergenic oak pollen in North Carolina, and harmful algal blooms on the Florida coast. Applying a consistent economic valuation approach to published studies and state estimates, we estimate total health-related costs from 917 deaths, 20,568 hospitalizations, and 17,857 emergency department visits of $10.0 billion in 2018 dollars, with a sensitivity range of $2.7-24.6 billion. Our estimates indicate that the financial burden of deaths, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and associated medical care is a key dimension of the overall economic impact of climate-sensitive events. We found that mortality costs (i.e., the value of a statistical life) of $8.4 billion exceeded morbidity costs and lost wages ($1.6 billion combined). By better characterizing health damages in economic terms, this work helps to shed light on the burden climate-sensitive events already place on U.S. public health each year. In doing so, we provide a conceptual framework for broader estimation of climate-sensitive health-related costs. The high health-related costs associated with climate-sensitive events highlight the importance of actions to mitigate climate change and adapt to its unavoidable impacts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Wendy Max
- Institute for Health & AgingUniversity of CaliforniaSan FranciscoCAUSA
| | | | - Kim Knowlton
- Natural Resources Defense CouncilNew YorkNYUSA
- Mailman School of Public HealthColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
| |
Collapse
|
25
|
Heo S, Bell ML. The influence of green space on the short-term effects of particulate matter on hospitalization in the U.S. for 2000-2013. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2019; 174:61-68. [PMID: 31039514 PMCID: PMC6550459 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.04.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2019] [Revised: 04/16/2019] [Accepted: 04/18/2019] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
Although a few studies have identified positive association between green space and reduced mortality rate, the effect modification of green space for the impact of air pollution on health outcomes is under studied. We quantified whether green space modifies associations between short-term exposure to particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5) and hospitalization across 364 urban U.S. counties for 2000-2013. Green space was measured by normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Daily number of hospital admissions for cardiovascular or respiratory diseases from Medicare enrollees (≥65yrs) and air quality monitoring data for each county were used to assess risks, as percent change in hospitalization related to 10μg/m3 increase in particulate matter. We computed an absolute change in county-specific relative risks explained by difference in county-level NDVI. The study results found that the association between air pollution and health was less in areas with more green space. We estimated that an interquartile range increase in NDVI corresponds to a 1.68% (95% CI: 0.43, 2.91) decrease in the association between PM10 and cardiovascular hospitalization and 10.40% (95% CI: 7.34, 13.34) decrease in the PM10-hospitalization association of acute myocardial infarction. For hospitalization associated with PM2.5, a 0.18% (95% CI: -0.39, 0.73) absolute decrease in relative risk was found for cardiovascular hospitalizations. In results stratified by age, younger age groups (65-74, 75-84yrs) had larger reductions for the PM10-hospitalization association with increase in NDVI than older populations (≥85yrs) but not for the PM2.5-hospitalization association. These findings add evidence for health benefits of green space in diminishing the health impacts of particulate matters on hospitalizations for older populations in the U.S.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Seulkee Heo
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, United States.
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, United States
| |
Collapse
|
26
|
Zarei AR, Shabani A, Mahmoudi MR. Comparison of the climate indices based on the relationship between yield loss of rain-fed winter wheat and changes of climate indices using GEE model. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 661:711-722. [PMID: 30684839 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.204] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2018] [Revised: 12/28/2018] [Accepted: 01/16/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is one of the most important meteorological phenomena that has had a lot of impacts on different sections with different spatial scales. In recent decades, climate changes affected by various factors especially human activities have had various impacts in different sections such as melting glaciers, various flood occurrence, occurrence of different droughts and etc. UNEP aridity Index (UNEP) and Modified De-Martonne index (MDM) are two more used indices to evaluate climate conditions in various regions of the world. In this paper; 1) the temporal trend of changes in climate conditions based on UNEP and MDM indices using climatological data (from 1967 to 2017) of 16 meteorological stations using parametric and non-parametric statistical tests were evaluated 2) the accuracy of UNEP and MDM indices were compared to assess climate conditions, based on the correlation between mentioned indices and percent of annual yield loss (AYL) in rain-fed winter wheat using simple and multiple Generalizes Estimation Equation (GEE) methods (for help managers to select more suitable and more accurate index to assess climate condition). Results showed, based on UNEP and MDM indices, climate indices in 93.75% and 87.5% of stations had a decreasing trend, but decreasing trend only in 56.25% and 50% of stations were significant at 5% level (respectively). The evaluation of the accuracy of UNEP and MDM indices showed that, in all stations, |B| coefficients between calculated AYL and UNEP and MDM indices and R2 coefficients between simulated AYL using AquaCrop model and predicted AYL using simple and multiple GEE methods in UNEP aridity index were more than MDM index. So, it is recommended to use UNEP aridity index to assess the climate conditions in different regions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Abdol Rassoul Zarei
- Department of Range and Watershed Management (Nature Engineering), College of Agricultural Science, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran.
| | - Ali Shabani
- Department of Water Engineering, College of Agricultural Science, Fasa University, Fasa, Iran.
| | | |
Collapse
|
27
|
Scale-dependent interactions between tree canopy cover and impervious surfaces reduce daytime urban heat during summer. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019. [PMID: 30910972 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1817561116.] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
As cities warm and the need for climate adaptation strategies increases, a more detailed understanding of the cooling effects of land cover across a continuum of spatial scales will be necessary to guide management decisions. We asked how tree canopy cover and impervious surface cover interact to influence daytime and nighttime summer air temperature, and how effects vary with the spatial scale at which land-cover data are analyzed (10-, 30-, 60-, and 90-m radii). A bicycle-mounted measurement system was used to sample air temperature every 5 m along 10 transects (∼7 km length, sampled 3-12 times each) spanning a range of impervious and tree canopy cover (0-100%, each) in a midsized city in the Upper Midwest United States. Variability in daytime air temperature within the urban landscape averaged 3.5 °C (range, 1.1-5.7 °C). Temperature decreased nonlinearly with increasing canopy cover, with the greatest cooling when canopy cover exceeded 40%. The magnitude of daytime cooling also increased with spatial scale and was greatest at the size of a typical city block (60-90 m). Daytime air temperature increased linearly with increasing impervious cover, but the magnitude of warming was less than the cooling associated with increased canopy cover. Variation in nighttime air temperature averaged 2.1 °C (range, 1.2-3.0 °C), and temperature increased with impervious surface. Effects of canopy were limited at night; thus, reduction of impervious surfaces remains critical for reducing nighttime urban heat. Results suggest strategies for managing urban land-cover patterns to enhance resilience of cities to climate warming.
Collapse
|
28
|
Abel DW, Holloway T, Martínez-Santos J, Harkey M, Tao M, Kubes C, Hayes S. Air Quality-Related Health Benefits of Energy Efficiency in the United States. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2019; 53:3987-3998. [PMID: 30835995 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b06417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
While it is known that energy efficiency (EE) lowers power sector demand and emissions, study of the air quality and public health impacts of EE has been limited. Here, we quantify the air quality and mortality impacts of a 12% summertime (June, July, and August) reduction in baseload electricity demand. We use the AVoided Emissions and geneRation Tool (AVERT) to simulate plant-level generation and emissions, the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate air quality, and the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) to quantify mortality impacts. We find EE reduces emissions of NO x by 13.2%, SO2 by 12.6%, and CO2 by 11.6%. On a nationwide, summer average basis, ambient PM2.5 is reduced 0.55% and O3 is reduced 0.45%. Reduced exposure to PM2.5 avoids 300 premature deaths annually (95% CI: 60 to 580) valued at $2.8 billion ($0.13 billion to $9.3 billion), and reduced exposure to O3 averts 175 deaths (101 to 244) valued at $1.6 billion ($0.15 billion to $4.5 billion). This translates into a health savings rate of $0.049/kWh ($0.031/kWh for PM2.5 and $0.018/kWh for O3). These results illustrate the importance of capturing the health benefits of EE and its potential as a strategy to achieve air standards.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- David W Abel
- Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment , University of Wisconsin - Madison , Madison , Wisconsin 53726 , United States
| | - Tracey Holloway
- Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment , University of Wisconsin - Madison , Madison , Wisconsin 53726 , United States
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences , University of Wisconsin - Madison , Madison , Wisconsin 53706 , United States
| | - Javier Martínez-Santos
- Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment , University of Wisconsin - Madison , Madison , Wisconsin 53726 , United States
- Department of Mechanical Engineering , University of Wisconsin - Madison , Madison , Wisconsin 53706 , United States
| | - Monica Harkey
- Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment , University of Wisconsin - Madison , Madison , Wisconsin 53726 , United States
| | - Madankui Tao
- Nelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment , University of Wisconsin - Madison , Madison , Wisconsin 53726 , United States
| | - Cassandra Kubes
- American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy , Washington , D.C. 20045 , United States
| | - Sara Hayes
- American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy , Washington , D.C. 20045 , United States
| |
Collapse
|
29
|
Scale-dependent interactions between tree canopy cover and impervious surfaces reduce daytime urban heat during summer. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:7575-7580. [PMID: 30910972 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1817561116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 105] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
As cities warm and the need for climate adaptation strategies increases, a more detailed understanding of the cooling effects of land cover across a continuum of spatial scales will be necessary to guide management decisions. We asked how tree canopy cover and impervious surface cover interact to influence daytime and nighttime summer air temperature, and how effects vary with the spatial scale at which land-cover data are analyzed (10-, 30-, 60-, and 90-m radii). A bicycle-mounted measurement system was used to sample air temperature every 5 m along 10 transects (∼7 km length, sampled 3-12 times each) spanning a range of impervious and tree canopy cover (0-100%, each) in a midsized city in the Upper Midwest United States. Variability in daytime air temperature within the urban landscape averaged 3.5 °C (range, 1.1-5.7 °C). Temperature decreased nonlinearly with increasing canopy cover, with the greatest cooling when canopy cover exceeded 40%. The magnitude of daytime cooling also increased with spatial scale and was greatest at the size of a typical city block (60-90 m). Daytime air temperature increased linearly with increasing impervious cover, but the magnitude of warming was less than the cooling associated with increased canopy cover. Variation in nighttime air temperature averaged 2.1 °C (range, 1.2-3.0 °C), and temperature increased with impervious surface. Effects of canopy were limited at night; thus, reduction of impervious surfaces remains critical for reducing nighttime urban heat. Results suggest strategies for managing urban land-cover patterns to enhance resilience of cities to climate warming.
Collapse
|
30
|
Limaye VS, Vargo J, Harkey M, Holloway T, Patz JA. Climate Change and Heat-Related Excess Mortality in the Eastern USA. ECOHEALTH 2018; 15:485-496. [PMID: 30159651 PMCID: PMC6572724 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-018-1363-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2017] [Revised: 07/09/2018] [Accepted: 07/09/2018] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Climate change will increase extreme heat-related health risks. To quantify the health impacts of mid-century climate change, we assess heat-related excess mortality across the eastern USA. Health risks are estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Mid-century temperature estimates, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, are compared to 2007 temperatures at 36 km and 12 km resolutions. Models indicate the average apparent and actual summer temperatures rise by 4.5° and 3.3° C, respectively. Warmer average apparent temperatures could cause 11,562 additional annual deaths (95% confidence interval, CI: 2641-20,095) due to cardiovascular stress in the population aged 65 years and above, while higher minimum temperatures could cause 8767 (95% CI: 5030-12,475) additional deaths each year. Modeled future climate data available at both coarse (36 km) and fine (12 km) resolutions predict significant human health impacts from warmer climates. The findings suggest that currently available information on future climates is sufficient to guide regional planning for the protection of public health. Higher resolution climate and demographic data are still needed to inform more targeted interventions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Vijay S Limaye
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1710 University Avenue, Madison, WI, 53726, USA.
- Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, USA.
| | - Jason Vargo
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1710 University Avenue, Madison, WI, 53726, USA
- Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, USA
| | - Monica Harkey
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1710 University Avenue, Madison, WI, 53726, USA
| | - Tracey Holloway
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1710 University Avenue, Madison, WI, 53726, USA
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, USA
| | - Jonathan A Patz
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1710 University Avenue, Madison, WI, 53726, USA
- Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, USA
- Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, USA
| |
Collapse
|
31
|
Limaye VS, Knowlton K, Sarkar S, Ganguly PS, Pingle S, Dutta P, M SL, Tiwari A, Solanki B, Shah C, Raval G, Kakkad K, Beig G, Parkhi N, Jaiswal A, Mavalankar D. Development of Ahmedabad's Air Information and Response (AIR) Plan to Protect Public Health. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 15:E1460. [PMID: 29996566 PMCID: PMC6068810 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15071460] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2018] [Revised: 06/29/2018] [Accepted: 07/05/2018] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
Indian cities struggle with some of the highest ambient air pollution levels in the world. While national efforts are building momentum towards concerted action to reduce air pollution, individual cities are taking action on this challenge to protect communities from the many health problems caused by this harmful environmental exposure. In 2017, the city of Ahmedabad launched a regional air pollution monitoring and risk communication project, the Air Information and Response (AIR) Plan. The centerpiece of the plan is an air quality index developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology’s System for Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research program that summarizes information from 10 new continuous air pollution monitoring stations in the region, each reporting data that can help people avoid harmful exposures and inform policy strategies to achieve cleaner air. This paper focuses on the motivation, development, and implementation of Ahmedabad’s AIR Plan. The project is discussed in terms of its collaborative roots, public health purpose in addressing the grave threat of air pollution (particularly to vulnerable groups), technical aspects in deploying air monitoring technology, and broader goals for the dissemination of an air quality index linked to specific health messages and suggested actions to reduce harmful exposures. The city of Ahmedabad is among the first cities in India where city leaders, state government, and civil society are proactively working together to address the country’s air pollution challenge with a focus on public health. The lessons learned from the development of the AIR Plan serve as a template for other cities aiming to address the heavy burden of air pollution on public health. Effective working relationships are vital since they form the foundation for long-term success and useful knowledge sharing beyond a single city.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Vijay S Limaye
- Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), New York, NY 10011, USA.
| | - Kim Knowlton
- Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), New York, NY 10011, USA.
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.
| | - Sayantan Sarkar
- Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), New York, NY 10011, USA.
| | | | - Shyam Pingle
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar (IIPH-G), Gandhinagar 382042, India.
| | - Priya Dutta
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar (IIPH-G), Gandhinagar 382042, India.
| | - Sathish L M
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar (IIPH-G), Gandhinagar 382042, India.
| | - Abhiyant Tiwari
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar (IIPH-G), Gandhinagar 382042, India.
- Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Cambridge, MA 02115, USA.
| | - Bhavin Solanki
- Health Department, Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC), Ahmedabad 380001, India.
| | - Chirag Shah
- Health Department, Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC), Ahmedabad 380001, India.
- Apollo Hospital, Ahmedabad 382428, India.
| | - Gopal Raval
- Ashrai Associates and Sparsh Chest Diseases Center, Ahmedabad 380009, India.
| | - Khyati Kakkad
- L.G. Hospital, AMC MET Medical College, Ahmedabad 380008, India.
| | - Gufran Beig
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune 411008, India.
| | - Neha Parkhi
- Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune 411008, India.
| | - Anjali Jaiswal
- Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), New York, NY 10011, USA.
| | - Dileep Mavalankar
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar (IIPH-G), Gandhinagar 382042, India.
| |
Collapse
|
32
|
Abstract
In an Editorial discussing the Special Issue on Climate Change and Health, guest editors Jonathan Patz and Madeleine Thompson summarize key issues in the field and describe the significance of research studies included in the issue.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan A. Patz
- Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
- Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
- Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Madeleine C. Thomson
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades, New York, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|