Evaluation of a clinical decision rule to guide antibiotic prescription in children with suspected lower respiratory tract infection in The Netherlands: A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial

Adoption of C-reactive protein rapid tests for the management of acute childhood infections in hospitals in the Netherlands and England: a comparative health systems analysis

BACKGROUND

The adoption of C-reactive protein point-of-care tests (CRP POCTs) in hospitals varies across Europe. We aimed to understand the factors that contribute to different levels of adoption of CRP POCTs for the management of acute childhood infections in two countries.

METHODS

Comparative qualitative analysis of the implementation of CRP POCTs in the Netherlands and England. The study was informed by the non-adoption, abandonment, spread, scale-up, and sustainability (NASSS) framework. Data were collected through document analysis and qualitative interviews with stakeholders. Documents were identified by a scoping literature review, search of websites, and through the stakeholders. Stakeholders were sampled purposively initially, and then by snowballing. Data were analysed thematically.

RESULTS

Forty-one documents resulted from the search and 46 interviews were conducted. Most hospital healthcare workers in the Netherlands were familiar with CRP POCTs as the tests were widely used and trusted in primary care. Moreover, although diagnostics were funded through similar Diagnosis Related Group reimbursement mechanisms in both countries, the actual funding for each hospital was more constrained in England. Compared to primary care, laboratory-based CRP tests were usually available in hospitals and their use was encouraged in both countries because they were cheaper. However, CRP POCTs were perceived as useful in some hospitals of the two countries in which the laboratory could not provide CRP measures 24/7 or within a short timeframe, and/or in emergency departments where expediting patient care was important.

CONCLUSIONS

CRP POCTs are more available in hospitals in the Netherlands because of the greater familiarity of Dutch healthcare workers with the tests which are widely used in primary care in their country and because there are more funding constraints in England. However, most hospitals in the Netherlands and England have not adopted CRP POCTs because the alternative CRP measurements from the hospital laboratory are available in a few hours and at a lower cost.

External validation of a multivariable prediction model for identification of pneumonia and other serious bacterial infections in febrile immunocompromised children

OBJECTIVE

To externally validate and update the Feverkids tool clinical prediction model for differentiating bacterial pneumonia and other serious bacterial infections (SBIs) from non-SBI causes of fever in immunocompromised children.

DESIGN

International, multicentre, prospective observational study embedded in PErsonalised Risk assessment in Febrile illness to Optimise Real-life Management across the European Union (PERFORM).

SETTING

Fifteen teaching hospitals in nine European countries.

PARTICIPANTS

Febrile immunocompromised children aged 0-18 years.

METHODS

The Feverkids clinical prediction model predicted the probability of bacterial pneumonia, other SBI or no SBI. Model discrimination, calibration and diagnostic performance at different risk thresholds were assessed. The model was then re-fitted and updated.

RESULTS

Of 558 episodes, 21 had bacterial pneumonia, 104 other SBI and 433 no SBI. Discrimination was 0.83 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.90) for bacterial pneumonia, with moderate calibration and 0.67 (0.61 to 0.72) for other SBIs, with poor calibration. After model re-fitting, discrimination improved to 0.88 (0.79 to 0.96) and 0.71 (0.65 to 0.76) and calibration improved. Predicted risk <1% ruled out bacterial pneumonia with sensitivity 0.95 (0.86 to 1.00) and negative likelihood ratio (LR) 0.09 (0.00 to 0.32). Predicted risk >10% ruled in bacterial pneumonia with specificity 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94) and positive LR 6.51 (3.71 to 10.3). Predicted risk <10% ruled out other SBIs with sensitivity 0.92 (0.87 to 0.97) and negative LR 0.32 (0.13 to 0.57). Predicted risk >30% ruled in other SBIs with specificity 0.89 (0.86 to 0.92) and positive LR 2.86 (1.91 to 4.25).

CONCLUSION

Discrimination and calibration were good for bacterial pneumonia but poorer for other SBIs. The rule-out thresholds have the potential to reduce unnecessary investigations and antibiotics in this high-risk group.

Effectiveness of de-implementation strategies for low-value prescribing in secondary care: a systematic review

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Considerable efforts have been made to improve guideline adherence in healthcare through de-implementation, such as decreasing the prescription of inappropriate medicines. However, we have limited knowledge about the effectiveness, barriers, facilitators and consequences of de-implementation strategies targeting inappropriate medication prescribing in secondary care settings. This review was conducted to understand these factors to contribute to better replication and optimisation of future de-implementation efforts to reduce low-value care.

METHODS

A systematic review of randomised control trials was conducted. Papers were identified through CINAHL, EMBASE, MEDLINE and Cochrane register of controlled trials to February 2021. Eligible studies were randomised control trials evaluating behavioural strategies to de-implement inappropriate prescribing in secondary healthcare. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Intervention characteristics, effectiveness, barriers, facilitators and consequences were identified in the study text and tabulated.

RESULTS

Eleven studies were included, of which seven were reported as effectively de-implementing low-value prescribing. Included studies were judged to be mainly at low to moderate risk for selection biases and generally high risk for performance and reporting biases. The majority of these strategies were clinical decision support at the 'point of care'. Clinical decision support tools were the most common and effective. They were found to be a low-cost and simple strategy. However, barriers such as clinician's reluctance to accept recommendations, or the clinical setting were potential barriers to their success. Educational strategies were the second most reported intervention type however the utility of educational strategies for de-implementation remains varied. Multiple barriers and facilitators relating to the environmental context, resources and knowledge were identified across studies as potentially influencing de-implementation. Various consequences were identified; however, few measured the impact of de-implementation on usual appropriate practice.

CONCLUSION

This review offers insight into the intervention strategies, potential barriers, facilitators and consequences that may affect the de-implementation of low-value prescribing in secondary care. Identification of these key features helps understand how and why these strategies are effective and the wider (desirable or undesirable) impact of de-implementation. These findings can contribute to the successful replication or optimisation of strategies used to de-implement low-value prescribing practices in future.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The review protocol was registered at PROSPERO (ID: CRD42021243944).

Effectiveness of decision support tools on reducing antibiotic use for respiratory tract infections: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Clinical decision support tools (CDSs) have been demonstrated to enhance the accuracy of antibiotic prescribing among physicians. However, their effectiveness in reducing inappropriate antibiotic use for respiratory tract infections (RTI) is controversial. Methods: A literature search in 3 international databases (Medline, Web of science and Embase) was conducted before 31 May 2023. Relative risk (RR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were pooled to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention. Summary effect sizes were calculated using a random-effects model due to the expected heterogeneity (I 2 over 50%). Results: A total of 11 cluster randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and 5 before-after studies were included in this meta-analysis, involving 900,804 patients met full inclusion criteria. Among these studies, 11 reported positive effects, 1 reported negative results, and 4 reported non-significant findings. Overall, the pooled effect size revealed that CDSs significantly reduced antibiotic use for RTIs (RR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.85 to 0.95, I 2 = 96.10%). Subgroup analysis indicated that the intervention duration may serve as a potential source of heterogeneity. Studies with interventions duration more than 2 years were found to have non-significant effects (RR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.96 to 1.04, I 2 = 0.00%). Egger's test results indicated no evidence of potential publication bias (p = 0.287). Conclusion: This study suggests that CDSs effectively reduce inappropriate antibiotic use for RTIs among physicians. However, subgroup analysis revealed that interventions lasting more than 2 years did not yield significant effects. These findings highlight the importance of considering intervention duration when implementing CDSs. Systematic Review Registration: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42023432584, Identifier: PROSPERO (CRD42023432584).

Clinical prediction models for serious infections in children: external validation in ambulatory care

BACKGROUND

Early distinction between mild and serious infections (SI) is challenging in children in ambulatory care. Clinical prediction models (CPMs), developed to aid physicians in clinical decision-making, require broad external validation before clinical use. We aimed to externally validate four CPMs, developed in emergency departments, in ambulatory care.

METHODS

We applied the CPMs in a prospective cohort of acutely ill children presenting to general practices, outpatient paediatric practices or emergency departments in Flanders, Belgium. For two multinomial regression models, Feverkidstool and Craig model, discriminative ability and calibration were assessed, and a model update was performed by re-estimation of coefficients with correction for overfitting. For two risk scores, the SBI score and PAWS, the diagnostic test accuracy was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 8211 children were included, comprising 498 SI and 276 serious bacterial infections (SBI). Feverkidstool had a C-statistic of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.77-0.84) with good calibration for pneumonia and 0.74 (0.70-0.79) with poor calibration for other SBI. The Craig model had a C-statistic of 0.80 (0.77-0.83) for pneumonia, 0.75 (0.70-0.80) for complicated urinary tract infections and 0.63 (0.39-0.88) for bacteraemia, with poor calibration. The model update resulted in improved C-statistics for all outcomes and good overall calibration for Feverkidstool and the Craig model. SBI score and PAWS performed extremely weak with sensitivities of 0.12 (0.09-0.15) and 0.32 (0.28-0.37).

CONCLUSIONS

Feverkidstool and the Craig model show good discriminative ability for predicting SBI and a potential for early recognition of SBI, confirming good external validity in a low prevalence setting of SBI. The SBI score and PAWS showed poor diagnostic performance.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02024282. Registered on 31 December 2013.

Trends of Incidence, Mortality, and Risk Factors for Lower Respiratory Infections among Children under 5 Years in China from 2000 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the temporal trends in the burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRI) and their attributable risk factors in children under 5 years is important for effective prevention strategies.

METHODS

We used incidence, mortality, and attributable risk factors of LRI among children under 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases database to analyze health patterns in 33 provincial administrative units in China from 2000 to 2019. Trends were examined using the annual average percentage change (AAPC) by the joinpoint regression method.

RESULTS

The rates of incidence and mortality for under-5 LRI in China were 18.1 and 4134.3 per 100,000 children in 2019, with an AAPC decrease of 4.1% and 11.0% from 2000, respectively. In recent years, the under-5 LRI incidence rate has decreased significantly in 11 provinces (Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hainan, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Qinghai, Sichuan, Xinjiang, Xizang, and Zhejiang) and remained stable in the other 22 provinces. The case fatality ratio was associated with the Human Development Index and the Health Resource Density Index. The largest decline in risk factors of deaths was household air pollution from solid fuels.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of under-5 LRI in China and the provinces has declined significantly, with variation across provinces. Further efforts are needed to promote child health through the development of measures to control major risk factors.

The impact of Antimicrobial Stewardship Programmes in paediatric emergency departments and primary care: a systematic review

Background

Antibiotics remain the most prescribed medicine in children worldwide, but half of the prescriptions are unnecessary or inappropriate, leading to an increase in antibiotic resistance. This study aims to systemically review the effects of different Antimicrobial Stewardship Programmes (ASPs) on reducing the rates of both antibiotic prescriptions and changes in antimicrobial resistance, and on the economic impact in paediatric emergency departments (PED) and primary care settings.

Materials and methods

Embase, MEDLINE, and Cochrane Library were systematically searched, combining Medical Subject Heading and free-text terms for 'children' and 'antimicrobial' and 'stewardship'. The search strategy involved restrictions on dates (from 1 January 2007 to 30 December 2020) but not on language. Randomized controlled trials, controlled and non-controlled before and after studies, controlled and non-controlled interrupted time series, and cohort studies were included for review. The review protocol was registered at the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews: Registration Number CRD42021270630.

Results

Of the 47,158 articles that remained after removing duplicates, 59 were eligible for inclusion. Most of the studies were published after 2015 (37/59, 62.7%) and in high-income countries (51/59, 86.4%). Almost half of the studies described the implementation of an ASP in the primary care setting (28/59, 47.5%), while 15 manuscripts described the implementation of ASPs in EDs (15/59, 25.4%). More than half of the studies (43/59, 72.9%) described the implementation of multiple interventions, whereas few studies considered the implementation of a single intervention. Antibiotic prescriptions and compliance with guidelines were the most frequent outcomes (47/59, 79.7% and 20/59, 33.9%, respectively). Most of the articles reported an improvement in these outcomes after implementing an ASP. Meanwhile, only very few studies focused on health care costs (6/59, 10.2%) and antimicrobial resistance (3/59 5.1%).

Conclusion

The implementation of ASPs has been proven to be feasible and valuable, even in challenging settings such as Emergency Departments and Primary care.

Novel care pathway to optimise antimicrobial prescribing for uncomplicated community-acquired pneumonia: study protocol for a prospective before-after cohort study in the emergency department of a tertiary care Canadian children's hospital

INTRODUCTION

Evidence-based recommendations for paediatric community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) diagnosis and management are needed. Uncomplicated CAP is often caused by respiratory viruses, especially in younger children; these episodes self-resolve without antibiotic treatment. Unfortunately, there are no clinical criteria that reliably discriminate between viral and bacterial disease, and so the majority of children diagnosed with CAP are given antibiotics-even though these will often not help and may cause harm. We have developed a novel care pathway that incorporates point-of-care biomarkers, radiographic patterns, microbiological testing and targeted follow-up. The primary study objective is to determine if the care pathway will be associated with less antimicrobial prescribing.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A prospective, before-after, study. Previously well children aged≥6 months presenting to a paediatric emergency department (ED) that have at least one respiratory symptom/sign, receive chest radiography, and are diagnosed with CAP by the ED physician will be eligible. Those with medical comorbidities, recently diagnosed pulmonary infection, or ongoing fever after≥4 days of antimicrobial therapy will be excluded. In the control (before) phase, eligible participants will be managed as per the standard of care. In the intervention (after) phase, eligible participants will be managed as per the novel care pathway. The primary outcome will be the proportion of participants in each phase who receive antimicrobial treatment for CAP. The secondary outcomes include: clinical cure; re-presentation to the ED; hospitalisation; time to resolution of symptoms; drug adverse events; caregiver satisfaction; child absenteeism from daycare/school; and caregiver absenteeism from work.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

All study documentation has been approved by the Hamilton Integrated Research Ethics Board and informed consent will be obtained from all participants. Data from this study will be presented at major conferences and published in peer-reviewed publications to facilitate collaborations with networks of clinicians experienced in the dissemination of clinical guidelines.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05114161.

Variation in bacterial pneumonia diagnoses and outcomes among children hospitalized with lower respiratory tract infections

BACKGROUND

Current diagnostics do not permit reliable differentiation of bacterial from viral causes of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), which may lead to over-treatment with antibiotics for possible bacterial community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

OBJECTIVES

We sought to describe variation in the diagnosis and treatment of bacterial CAP among children hospitalized with LRTIs and determine the association between CAP diagnosis and outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This multicenter cross-sectional study included children hospitalized between 2017 and 2019 with LRTIs at 42 children's hospitals.

MAIN OUTCOME AND METHODS

We calculated the proportion of children with LRTIs who were diagnosed with and treated for bacterial CAP. After adjusting for confounders, hospitals were grouped into high, moderate, and low CAP diagnosis groups. Multivariable regression was used to examine the association between high and low CAP diagnosis groups and outcomes.

RESULTS

We identified 66,581 patients hospitalized with LRTIs and observed substantial variation across hospitals in the proportion diagnosed with and treated for bacterial CAP (median 27%, range 12%-42%). Compared with low CAP diagnosing hospitals, high diagnosing hospitals had higher rates of CAP-related revisits (0.6% [95% confidence interval: 0.5, 0.7] vs. 0.4% [0.4, 0.5], p = .04), chest radiographs (58% [53, 62] vs. 46% [41, 51], p = .02), and blood tests (43% [33, 53] vs. 26% [19, 35], p = .046). There were no significant differences in length of stay, all-cause revisits or readmissions, CAP-related readmissions, or costs.

CONCLUSION

There was wide variation across hospitals in the proportion of children with LRTIs who were treated for bacterial CAP. The lack of meaningful differences in clinical outcomes among hospitals suggests that some institutions may over-diagnose and overtreat bacterial CAP.

Antibiotic stewardship programmes had a low impact on prescribing for acute respiratory tract infections in children

Aim

This mini review summarises the available data on antibiotic stewardship programmes (ASP) for acute respiratory tract infections (ARTI) in paediatric outpatients, particularly the implementation and impact of programmes.

Methods

PubMed was searched from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2021 for papers with abstracts that used the terms respiratory tract infection, antibiotic, child and guideline. We then saw how many of these included the individual terms impact, implementation or stewardship. After exclusions, we included 10 papers that were published in English on children treated as outpatients for ARTIs. All of these included data on implementing and assessing the impact of ASPs.

Results

The primary care data were mainly from the United States. The ASP programmes did not influence antibiotic prescription rates, but broad‐spectrum antibiotics decreased by 43–48%. The emergency department data were mainly from France and the antibiotic prescription rate decreased by 31–35% and the rate for broad‐spectrum antibiotics by 63–71%. A nationwide register‐based study from France confirmed these results.

Conclusion

ASPs had a low impact on overall antibiotic prescription rates and a modest impact on prescribing broad‐spectrum antibiotics. The implementation of ASP protocols needs further development, and more research is necessary on barriers to complying with ASPs.

Knowledge translation of prediction rules: methods to help health professionals understand their trade-offs

Clinical prediction models are developed with the ultimate aim of improving patient outcomes, and are often turned into prediction rules (e.g. classifying people as low/high risk using cut-points of predicted risk) at some point during the development stage. Prediction rules often have reasonable ability to either rule-in or rule-out disease (or another event), but rarely both. When a prediction model is intended to be used as a prediction rule, conveying its performance using the C-statistic, the most commonly reported model performance measure, does not provide information on the magnitude of the trade-offs. Yet, it is important that these trade-offs are clear, for example, to health professionals who might implement the prediction rule. This can be viewed as a form of knowledge translation. When communicating information on trade-offs to patients and the public there is a large body of evidence that indicates natural frequencies are most easily understood, and one particularly well-received way of depicting the natural frequency information is to use population diagrams. There is also evidence that health professionals benefit from information presented in this way.Here we illustrate how the implications of the trade-offs associated with prediction rules can be more readily appreciated when using natural frequencies. We recommend that the reporting of the performance of prediction rules should (1) present information using natural frequencies across a range of cut-points to inform the choice of plausible cut-points and (2) when the prediction rule is recommended for clinical use at a particular cut-point the implications of the trade-offs are communicated using population diagrams. Using two existing prediction rules, we illustrate how these methods offer a means of effectively and transparently communicating essential information about trade-offs associated with prediction rules.

Antibiotic therapy in children with community-acquired pneumonia

PubMed was reviewed on antibiotic treatment of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in children for the years 2011-2020, and three clinical trials in high-income and eight in low-income countries were found. Prospective studies combining laboratory and clinical findings for steering of antibiotic treatment found that five-day courses were equally effective as longer courses. No new antibiotics were launched for children's CAP during the last 10 years. Five-day courses are equally effective as 7- to 10-day courses for CAP in children. Stewardship of antibiotics needs lessening of exposure to antibiotics by better targeting their use and by shortening the lengths of antibiotic courses.

Paediatric Antimicrobial Stewardship for Respiratory Infections in the Emergency Setting: A Systematic Review

Antimicrobial resistance occurs due to the propensity of microbial pathogens to develop resistance to antibiotics over time. Antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) have been developed in response to this growing crisis, to limit unnecessary antibiotic prescription through initiatives such as education-based seminars, prescribing guidelines, and rapid respiratory pathogen (RRP) testing. Paediatric patients who present to the emergency setting with respiratory symptoms are a particularly high-risk population susceptible to inappropriate antibiotic prescribing behaviours and are therefore an ideal cohort for focused ASPs. The purpose of this systematic review was to assess the efficacy and safety of ASPs in this clinical context. A systematic search of PubMed, Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews was conducted to review the current evidence. Thirteen studies were included in the review and these studies assessed a range of stewardship interventions and outcome measures. Overall, ASPs reduced the rates of antibiotic prescription, increased the prescription of narrow-spectrum antibiotics, and shortened the duration of antibiotic therapy. Multimodal interventions that were education-based and those that used RRP testing were found to be the most effective. Whilst we found strong evidence that ASPs are effective in reducing antibiotic prescribing, further studies are required to assess whether they translate to equivalent clinical outcomes.

A NICE combination for predicting hospitalisation at the Emergency Department: a European multicentre observational study of febrile children

Background

Prolonged Emergency Department (ED) stay causes crowding and negatively impacts quality of care. We developed and validated a prediction model for early identification of febrile children with a high risk of hospitalisation in order to improve ED flow.

Methods

The MOFICHE study prospectively collected data on febrile children (0-18 years) presenting to 12 European EDs. A prediction models was constructed using multivariable logistic regression and included patient characteristics available at triage. We determined the discriminative values of the model by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC).

Findings

Of 38,424 paediatric encounters, 9,735 children were admitted to the ward and 157 to the PICU. The prediction model, combining patient characteristics and NICE alarming, yielded an AUC of 0.84 (95%CI 0.83-0.84).The model performed well for a rule-in threshold of 75% (specificity 99.0% (95%CI 98.9-99.1%, positive likelihood ratio 15.1 (95%CI 13.4-17.1), positive predictive value 0.84 (95%CI 0.82-0.86)) and a rule-out threshold of 7.5% (sensitivity 95.4% (95%CI 95.0-95.8), negative likelihood ratio 0.15 (95%CI 0.14-0.16), negative predictive value 0..95 (95%CI 0.95-9.96)). Validation in a separate dataset showed an excellent AUC of 0.91 (95%CI 0.90- 0.93). The model performed well for identifying children needing PICU admission (AUC 0.95, 95%CI 0.93-0.97). A digital calculator was developed to facilitate clinical use.

Interpretation

Patient characteristics and NICE alarming signs available at triage can be used to identify febrile children at high risk for hospitalisation and can be used to improve ED flow.

Funding

European Union, NIHR, NHS.

Latvian Primary Care Management of Children with Acute Infections: Antibiotic-Prescribing Habits and Diagnostic Process Prior to Treatment

Background and Objectives: Primary care physicians frequently prescribe antibiotics for acutely ill children, even though they usually have self-limiting diseases of viral etiology. The aim of this research was to evaluate the routine antibiotic-prescribing habits of primary care in Latvia, in response to children presenting with infections. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study included acutely ill children who consulted eighty family physicians (FP) in Latvia, between November 2019 and May 2020. The data regarding patient demographics, diagnoses treated with antibiotics, the choice of antibiotics and the use of diagnostic tests were collected. Results: The study population comprised 2383 patients aged between one month and 17 years, presenting an acute infection episode, who had a face-to-face consultation with an FP. Overall, 29.2% of these patients received an antibiotic prescription. The diagnoses most often treated with antibiotics were otitis (45.8% of all antibiotic prescriptions), acute bronchitis (25.0%) and the common cold (14.8%). The most commonly prescribed antibiotics were amoxicillin (55.9% of prescriptions), amoxicillin/clavulanate (18.1%) and clarithromycin (11.8%). Diagnostic tests were carried out for 59.6% of children presenting with acute infections and preceded 66.4% of antibiotic prescriptions. Conclusion: Our data revealed that a high level of antibiotic prescribing for self-limiting viral infections in children continues to occur. The underuse of narrow-spectrum antibiotics and suboptimal use of diagnostic tests before treatment decision-making were also identified. To achieve a more rational use of antibiotics in primary care for children with a fever, professionals and parents need to be better educated on this subject, and diagnostic tests should be used more extensively, including the implementation of daily point-of-care testing.

Impact of a clinical decision rule on antibiotic prescription for children with suspected lower respiratory tract infections presenting to European emergency departments: a simulation study based on routine data

BACKGROUND

Discriminating viral from bacterial lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in children is challenging thus commonly resulting in antibiotic overuse. The Feverkidstool, a validated clinical decision rule including clinical symptoms and C-reactive protein, safely reduced antibiotic use in children at low/intermediate risk for bacterial LRTIs in a multicentre trial at emergency departments (EDs) in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES

Using routine data from an observational study, we simulated the impact of the Feverkidstool on antibiotic prescriptions compared with observed antibiotic prescriptions in children with suspected LRTIs at 12 EDs in eight European countries.

METHODS

We selected febrile children aged 1 month to 5 years with respiratory symptoms and excluded upper respiratory tract infections. Using the Feverkidstool, we calculated individual risks for bacterial LRTI retrospectively. We simulated antibiotic prescription rates under different scenarios: (1) applying effect estimates on antibiotic prescription from the trial; and (2) varying both usage (50%-100%) and compliance (70%-100%) with the Feverkidstool's advice to withhold antibiotics in children at low/intermediate risk for bacterial LRTI (≤10%).

RESULTS

Of 4938 children, 4209 (85.2%) were at low/intermediate risk for bacterial LRTI. Applying effect estimates from the trial, the Feverkidstool reduced antibiotic prescription from 33.5% to 24.1% [pooled risk difference: 9.4% (95% CI: 5.7%-13.1%)]. Simulating 50%-100% usage with 90% compliance resulted in risk differences ranging from 8.3% to 15.8%. Our simulations suggest that antibiotic prescriptions would be reduced in EDs with high baseline antibiotic prescription rates or predominantly (>85%) low/intermediate-risk children.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of the Feverkidstool could reduce antibiotic prescriptions in children with suspected LRTIs in European EDs.

The Role of the Respiratory Microbiome and Viral Presence in Lower Respiratory Tract Infection Severity in the First Five Years of Life

Lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in children are common and, although often mild, a major cause of mortality and hospitalization. Recently, the respiratory microbiome has been associated with both susceptibility and severity of LRTI. In this current study, we combined respiratory microbiome, viral, and clinical data to find associations with the severity of LRTI. Nasopharyngeal aspirates of children aged one month to five years included in the STRAP study (Study to Reduce Antibiotic prescription in childhood Pneumonia), who presented at the emergency department (ED) with fever and cough or dyspnea, were sequenced with nanopore 16S-rRNA gene sequencing and subsequently analyzed with hierarchical clustering to identify respiratory microbiome profiles. Samples were also tested using a panel of 15 respiratory viruses and Mycoplasma pneumoniae, which were analyzed in two groups, according to their reported virulence. The primary outcome was hospitalization, as measure of disease severity. Nasopharyngeal samples were isolated from a total of 167 children. After quality filtering, microbiome results were available for 54 children and virology panels for 158 children. Six distinct genus-dominant microbiome profiles were identified, with Haemophilus-, Moraxella-, and Streptococcus-dominant profiles being the most prevalent. However, these profiles were not found to be significantly associated with hospitalization. At least one virus was detected in 139 (88%) children, of whom 32.4% had co-infections with multiple viruses. Viral co-infections were common for adenovirus, bocavirus, and enterovirus, and uncommon for human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and influenza A virus. The detection of enteroviruses was negatively associated with hospitalization. Virulence groups were not significantly associated with hospitalization. Our data underlines high detection rates and co-infection of viruses in children with respiratory symptoms and confirms the predominant presence of Haemophilus-, Streptococcus-, and Moraxella-dominant profiles in a symptomatic pediatric population at the ED. However, we could not assess significant associations between microbiome profiles and disease severity measures.

Development and validation of a prediction model for invasive bacterial infections in febrile children at European Emergency Departments: MOFICHE, a prospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

To develop and cross-validate a multivariable clinical prediction model to identify invasive bacterial infections (IBI) and to identify patient groups who might benefit from new biomarkers.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

12 emergency departments (EDs) in 8 European countries.

PATIENTS

Febrile children aged 0-18 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

IBI, defined as bacteraemia, meningitis and bone/joint infection. We derived and cross-validated a model for IBI using variables from the Feverkidstool (clinical symptoms, C reactive protein), neurological signs, non-blanching rash and comorbidity. We assessed discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve) and diagnostic performance at different risk thresholds for IBI: sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive likelihood ratios (LRs).

RESULTS

Of 16 268 patients, 135 (0.8%) had an IBI. The discriminative ability of the model was 0.84 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.82) in pooled cross-validations. The model performed well for the rule-out threshold of 0.1% (sensitivity 0.97 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.99), negative LR 0.1 (95% CI 0.0 to 0.2) and for the rule-in threshold of 2.0% (specificity 0.94 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.95), positive LR 8.4 (95% CI 6.9 to 10.0)). The intermediate thresholds of 0.1%-2.0% performed poorly (ranges: sensitivity 0.59-0.93, negative LR 0.14-0.57, specificity 0.52-0.88, positive LR 1.9-4.8) and comprised 9784 patients (60%).

CONCLUSIONS

The rule-out threshold of this model has potential to reduce antibiotic treatment while the rule-in threshold could be used to target treatment in febrile children at the ED. In more than half of patients at intermediate risk, sensitive biomarkers could improve identification of IBI and potentially reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions.

Disease burden and attributable risk factors of respiratory infections in China from 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

There was lack of data on the burdens and trends of upper and lower respiratory infections (URIs and LRIs) over the past three decades in China.

METHODS

We estimated the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to upper and lower respiratory infections (URIs and LRIs) and attributable risk factors in China by a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Incidence, mortality, and DALYs were stratified by sex, age, and province. Risk factors for respiratory infections were analyzed from exposure data.

FINDINGS

The age-standardized incidence rates of URIs and LRIs were 179,077 and 3926 per 100,000 persons in 2019, with a 7•52% and 35•07% decrease from 1990, respectively. Moreover, 2801 and 185,264 persons died of URIs and LRIs in 2019, respectively. DALYs for URIs and LRIs also decreased from 1,516,727 in 1990 to 928,617 in 2019 and from 38,278,504 in 1990 to 4,020,676 in 2019. The burden of URIs and LRIs were generally similar in males and females, but relatively higher in the new-borns and the elderly. Child malnutrition and low birth weight were the most important cause of age-standardized DALYs of LRIs and URIs, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Future URI and LRI prevention strategies should focus on the maternal and child health, air pollution, and tobacco control, especially in young children and the elderly population.

FUNDING

National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606200); National Natural Science Foundation of China (82041021); Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (20ykpy86) and Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2019A1515110003); Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (No.: INV-006371).

Information technology interventions to improve antibiotic prescribing for patients with acute respiratory infection: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

Information technology (IT) interventions provide physicians with easy and quick access to information at the point of care and can play a major role in clinical decision-making for antibiotic prescribing. This study aimed to examine the effects and characteristics of IT interventions on improving antibiotic prescribing for patients with acute respiratory infection (ARI).

METHODS

A comprehensive search was performed in Medline (through PubMed), ISI web of science, Embase, and Cochrane databases from inception to 31 August 2020. Randomized controlled trial (RCT) and cluster RCT (CRCT) studies examining the effectiveness of IT interventions in improving antibiotic prescribing for patients with ARI were included. Participants were patients with ARI. IT interventions were used for improving antibiotic prescribing. Two researchers independently extracted data from studies on methods, characteristics of interventions, and results. The characteristics of interventions were extracted based on three dimensions of IT design, data entry source, and implementation characteristics.

RESULTS

Eighteen studies (15 CRCTs and three RCTs) were included. Most of included studies (n = 11) were conducted in the United States. In 12 studies (66.7%), IT interventions improved the level of antibiotic prescribing, and in eight of the 12 studies the effect was statistically significant. In two studies the intervention had a statistically significant negative effect, and in two studies the level of antibiotic prescribing was not changed. Seventeen studies (94.4%) used clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) for the intervention. In 12 studies (66.7%) CDSSs were integrated with electronic health records (EHRs).

CONCLUSIONS

Information technology interventions have the potential to improve prescription of antibiotics for patients with acute respiratory infection and to change physicians' behaviours in this regard. Factors affecting the acceptance of IT-based interventions to improve prescription of antibiotics should be investigated in future studies.

The influence of chest X-ray results on antibiotic prescription for childhood pneumonia in the emergency department

The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of chest X-ray (CXR) results on antibiotic prescription in children suspected of lower respiratory tract infections (RTI) in the emergency department (ED). We performed a secondary analysis of a stepped-wedge, cluster randomized trial of children aged 1 month to 5 years with fever and cough/dyspnoea in 8 EDs in the Netherlands (2016-2018), including a 1-week follow-up. We analysed the observational data of the pre-intervention period, using multivariable logistic regression to evaluate the influence of CXR result on antibiotic prescription. We included 597 children (median age 17 months [IQR 9-30, 61% male). CXR was performed in 109/597 (18%) of children (range across hospitals 9 to 50%); 52/109 (48%) showed focal infiltrates. Children who underwent CXR were more likely to receive antibiotics, also when adjusted for clinical signs and symptoms, hospital and CXR result (OR 7.25 [95% CI 2.48-21.2]). Abnormalities on CXR were not significantly associated with antibiotic prescription.Conclusion: Performance of CXR was independently associated with more antibiotic prescription, regardless of its results. The limited influence of CXR results on antibiotic prescription highlights the inferior role of CXR on treatment decisions for suspected lower RTI in the ED. What is Known: • Chest X-ray (CXR) has a high inter-observer variability and cannot distinguish between bacterial or viral pneumonia. • Current guidelines recommend against routine use of CXR in children with uncomplicated respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in the outpatient setting. What is New: • CXR is still frequently performed in non-complex children suspected of lower RTIs in the emergency department • CXR performance was independently associated with more antibiotic prescriptions, regardless of its results, highlighting the inferior role of chest X-rays in treatment decisions.

Cost Study of a Cluster Randomized Trial on a Clinical Decision Rule Guiding Antibiotic Treatment in Children With Suspected Lower Respiratory Tract Infections in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Children with fever and respiratory symptoms represent a large patient group at the emergency department (ED). A decision rule-based treatment strategy improved targeting of antibiotics in these children in a recent clinical trial. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the decision rule on healthcare and societal costs, and to describe costs of children with suspected lower respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in the ED in general.

METHODS

In a stepped-wedge, cluster randomized trial, we collected cost data of children 1 month to 5 years of age with fever and cough/dyspnea in 8 EDs in The Netherlands (2016-2018). We calculated medical costs and societal costs per patient, during usual care (n = 597), and when antibiotic prescription was guided by the decision rule (n = 402). We calculated cost-of-illness of this patient group and estimated their annual costs at national level.

RESULTS

The cost-of-illness of children under 5 years with suspected lower RTIs in the ED was on average &OV0556;2130 per patient. At population level this is &OV0556;15 million per year in The Netherlands (&OV0556;1.7 million/100,000 children under 5). Mean costs per patient in usual care (&OV0556;2300) were reduced to &OV0556;1870 in the intervention phase (P = 0.01). Main cost drivers were hospitalization and lost parental workdays.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of a decision rule-based treatment strategy in children with suspected lower RTI was cost-saving, due to a reduction in hospitalization and parental absenteeism. Given the high frequency of this disease in children, the decision rule has the potential to result in a considerable cost reduction at population level.