Long-lasting insecticidal nets to prevent visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent; methodological lessons learned from a cluster randomised controlled trial

A dynamic game of lymphatic filariasis prevention by voluntary use of insecticide treated nets

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted for elimination as a public health concern by 2030 with a goal to keep the prevalence of LF infections under the 1% threshold. While mass drug administration (MDA) is a primary strategy recommended by WHO, the use of insecticide treated nets (ITN) plays a crucial role as an alternative strategy when MDA cannot be used. In this paper, we use imitation dynamics to incorporate human behavior and voluntary use of ITN into the compartmental epidemiological model of LF transmission. We find the equilibrium states of the dynamics and the ITN usage as it depends on epidemiological parameters and the cost of ITNs. We investigate the conditions under which the voluntary use of ITNs can keep the LF prevalence under the 1% threshold. We found that when the cost of using the ITNs is about 105 smaller than the perceived cost of LF, then the voluntary use of ITNs will eliminate LF as a public health concern. Furthermore, when the ITNs are given away for free, our model predicts that over 80% of the population will use them which would eliminate LF completely in regions where Anopheles are the primary vectors.

Impact of intensified control on visceral leishmaniasis in a highly-endemic district of Bihar, India: An interrupted time series analysis

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is declining in India and the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 2020 ‘elimination as a public health problem’ target has nearly been achieved. Intensified combined interventions might help reach elimination, but their impact has not been assessed. WHO’s Neglected Tropical Diseases 2021–2030 roadmap provides an opportunity to revisit VL control strategies. We estimated the combined effect of a district-wide pilot of intensified interventions in the highly-endemic Vaishali district, where cases fell from 3,598 in 2012–2014 to 762 in 2015–2017. The intensified control approach comprised indoor residual spraying with improved supervision; VL-specific training for accredited social health activists to reduce onset-to-diagnosis time; and increased Information Education & Communication activities in the community. We compared the rate of incidence decrease in Vaishali to other districts in Bihar state via an interrupted time series analysis with a spatiotemporal model informed by previous VL epidemiological estimates. Changes in Vaishali’s rank among Bihar’s endemic districts in terms of monthly incidence showed a change pre-pilot (3rd highest out of 33 reporting districts) vs. during the pilot (9th) (p<1e-10). The rate of decline in Vaishali’s incidence saw no change in rank at 11th highest, both pre-pilot & during the pilot. Counterfactual model simulations suggest an estimated median of 352 cases (IQR 234–477) were averted by the Vaishali pilot between January 2015 and December 2017, which was robust to modest changes in the onset-to-diagnosis distribution. Strengthening control strategies may have precipitated a substantial change in VL incidence in Vaishali and suggests this approach should be piloted in other highly-endemic districts.

Chemical control and insecticide resistance status of sand fly vectors worldwide

BACKGROUND

Phlebotomine sand flies are prominent vectors of Leishmania parasites that cause leishmaniasis, which comes second to malaria in terms of parasitic causative fatalities globally. In the absence of human vaccines, sand fly chemical-based vector control is a key component of leishmaniasis control efforts.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a literature review on the current interventions, primarily, insecticide-based used for sand fly control, as well as the global insecticide resistance (IR) status of the main sand fly vector species. Indoor insecticidal interventions, such as residual spraying and treated bed nets are the most widely deployed, while several alternative control strategies are also used in certain settings and/or are under evaluation. IR has been sporadically detected in sand flies in India and other regions, using non-standardized diagnostic bioassays. Molecular studies are limited to monitoring of known pyrethroid resistance mutations (kdr), which are present at high frequencies in certain regions.

CONCLUSIONS

As the leishmaniasis burden remains a major problem at a global scale, evidence-based rational use of insecticidal interventions is required to meet public health demands. Standardized bioassays and molecular markers are a prerequisite for this task, albeit are lagging behind. Experiences from other disease vectors underscore the need for the implementation of appropriate IR management (IRM) programs, in the framework of integrated vector management (IVM). The implementation of alternative strategies seems context- and case-specific, with key eco-epidemiological parameters yet to be investigated. New biotechnology-based control approaches might also come into play in the near future to further reinforce sand fly/leishmaniasis control efforts.

Mathematical modelling of the use of insecticide-treated nets for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly neglected tropical disease caused by a parasite Leishmania donovani and spread by female sand flies Phlebotomus argentipes. There is conflicting evidence regarding the role of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) on the prevention of VL. Numerous studies demonstrated the effectiveness of ITNs. However, KalaNet, a large trial in Nepal and India did not support those findings. The purpose of this paper is to gain insight into the situation by mathematical modelling. We expand a mathematical model of VL transmission based on the KalaNet trial and incorporate the use of ITNs explicitly into the model. One of the major contributions of this work is that we calibrate the model based on the available epidemiological data, generally independent of the KalaNet trial. We validate the model on data collected during the KalaNet trial. We conclude that in order to eliminate VL, the ITN usage would have to stay above 96%. This is higher than the 91% ITNs use at the end of the trial which may explain why the trial did not show a positive effect from ITNs. At the same time, our model indicates that asymptomatic individuals play a crucial role in VL transmission.

The importance of vector control for the control and elimination of vector-borne diseases

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) such as malaria, dengue, and leishmaniasis exert a huge burden of morbidity and mortality worldwide, particularly affecting the poorest of the poor. The principal method by which these diseases are controlled is through vector control, which has a long and distinguished history. Vector control, to a greater extent than drugs or vaccines, has been responsible for shrinking the map of many VBDs. Here, we describe the history of vector control programmes worldwide from the late 1800s to date. Pre 1940, vector control relied on a thorough understanding of vector ecology and epidemiology, and implementation of environmental management tailored to the ecology and behaviour of local vector species. This complex understanding was replaced by a simplified dependency on a handful of insecticide-based tools, particularly for malaria control, without an adequate understanding of entomology and epidemiology and without proper monitoring and evaluation. With the rising threat from insecticide-resistant vectors, global environmental change, and the need to incorporate more vector control interventions to eliminate these diseases, we advocate for continued investment in evidence-based vector control. There is a need to return to vector control approaches based on a thorough knowledge of the determinants of pathogen transmission, which utilise a range of insecticide and non-insecticide-based approaches in a locally tailored manner for more effective and sustainable vector control.

Age trends in asymptomatic and symptomatic Leishmania donovani infection in the Indian subcontinent: A review and analysis of data from diagnostic and epidemiological studies

BACKGROUND

Age patterns in asymptomatic and symptomatic infection with Leishmania donovani, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC), are currently poorly understood. Age-stratified serology and infection incidence have been used to assess transmission levels of other diseases, which suggests that they may also be of use for monitoring and targeting control programmes to achieve elimination of VL and should be included in VL transmission dynamic models. We therefore analysed available age-stratified data on both disease incidence and prevalence of immune markers with the aim of collating the currently available data, estimating rates of infection, and informing modelling and future data collection.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A systematic literature search yielded 13 infection prevalence and 7 VL incidence studies meeting the inclusion criteria. Statistical tests were performed to identify trends by age, and according to diagnostic cut-off. Simple reversible catalytic models with age-independent and age-dependent infection rates were fitted to the prevalence data to estimate infection and reversion rates, and to test different hypotheses about the origin of variation in these rates. Most of the studies showed an increase in infection prevalence with age: from ≲10% seroprevalence (<20% Leishmanin skin test (LST) positivity) for 0-10-year-olds to >10% seroprevalence (>20% LST-positivity) for 30-40-year-olds, but overall prevalence varied considerably between studies. VL incidence was lower amongst 0-5-year-olds than older age groups in most studies; most showing a peak in incidence between ages 5 and 20. The age-independent catalytic model provided the best overall fit to the infection prevalence data, but the estimated rates for the less parsimonious age-dependent model were much closer to estimates from longitudinal studies, suggesting that infection rates may increase with age.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Age patterns in asymptomatic infection prevalence and VL incidence in the ISC vary considerably with geographical location and time period. The increase in infection prevalence with age and peaked age-VL-incidence distribution may be due to lower exposure to infectious sandfly bites in young children, but also suggest that acquired immunity to the parasite increases with age. However, poor standardisation of serological tests makes it difficult to compare data from different studies and draw firm conclusions about drivers of variation in observed age patterns.

Controlling phlebotomine sand flies to prevent canine Leishmania infantum infection: A case of knowing your enemy

Leishmaniosis caused by Leishmania infantum is a widespread zoonotic disease that can be transmitted to animals and humans by their vectors, blood-sucking phlebotomine sand flies. To prevent canine leishmaniosis across the whole Mediterranean region, vector control is essential. Because of phlebotomine breeding sites are diverse, environmental larval controls have limited practical value. Control methods of adults are being evaluated, such as selective baits based on sugar feeding of males and females or Attractive Toxic Sugar Baits (ATSB), and the indoor use of Long-Lasting-Insecticidal Nets (LLINs) treated with permethrin to prevent sand fly bites complementing the Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) approach suggested by WHO. Although several strategies exist, the best control measure to prevent canine Leishmania infantum is to treat dogs using biocidal topical formulations based on legal insecticides (PTs18) or repellents (PTs19) (as collars, spot-ons and/or sprays) during the period when the vectors are active. This means we need to really know the biology and life cycle of the sand fly vector. According to available data, by mapping ambient temperatures we can already predict high risk areas where vector densities will be higher. In ongoing research, new candidates are emerging to fight against sand flies including natural plant extracts with low impacts on the environment and host animal. Other options in the future could be systemic insecticides to help reduce sand fly populations in high density areas. In parallel, health authorities and professionals involved in animal and public health (veterinarians, physicians, entomologists and epidemiologists) must work together in a One Health approach to minimize Leishmania infection. Veterinarians play a crucial role in liaising between key stake holders and dog owners to ensure the latter act responsibly in using repellents as a preventive measure against sand fly bites.

Current Visceral Leishmaniasis Research: A Research Review to Inspire Future Study

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), one of the deadliest parasitic diseases in the world, causes more than 50,000 human deaths each year and afflicts millions of people throughout South America, East Africa, South Asia, and Mediterranean Region. In 2015 the World Health Organization classified VL as a neglected tropical disease (NTD), prompting concentrated study of the VL epidemic using mathematical and simulation models. This paper reviews literature related to prevalence and prevention control strategies. More than thirty current research works were reviewed and classified based on VL epidemic study methods, including modeling approaches, control strategies, and simulation techniques since 2013. A summarization of these technical methods, major findings, and contributions from existing works revealed that VL epidemic research efforts must improve in the areas of validating and verifying VL mathematical models with real-world epidemic data. In addition, more dynamic disease control strategies must be explored and advanced simulation techniques must be used to predict VL pandemics.

Antibody response to sand fly saliva is a marker of transmission intensity but not disease progression in dogs naturally infected with Leishmania infantum

BACKGROUND

Antibody responses to sand fly saliva have been suggested to be a useful marker of exposure to sand fly bites and Leishmania infection and a potential tool to monitor the effectiveness of entomological interventions. Exposure to sand fly bites before infection has also been suggested to modulate the severity of the infection. Here, we test these hypotheses by quantifying the anti-saliva IgG response in a cohort study of dogs exposed to natural infection with Leishmania infantum in Brazil.

METHODS

IgG responses to crude salivary antigens of the sand fly Lutzomyia longipalpis were measured by ELISA in longitudinal serum samples from 47 previously unexposed sentinel dogs and 11 initially uninfected resident dogs for up to 2 years. Antibody responses were compared to the intensity of transmission, assessed by variation in the incidence of infection between seasons and between dogs. Antibody responses before patent infection were then compared with the severity of infection, assessed using tissue parasite loads and clinical symptoms.

RESULTS

Previously unexposed dogs acquired anti-saliva antibody responses within 2 months, and the rate of acquisition increased with the intensity of seasonal transmission. Over the following 2 years, antibody responses varied with seasonal transmission and sand fly numbers, declining rapidly in periods of low transmission. Antibody responses varied greatly between dogs and correlated with the intensity of transmission experienced by individual dogs, measured by the number of days in the field before patent infection. After infection, anti-saliva antibody responses were positively correlated with anti-parasite antibody responses. However, there was no evidence that the degree of exposure to sand fly bites before infection affected the severity of the infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-saliva antibody responses are a marker of current transmission intensity in dogs exposed to natural infection with Leishmania infantum, but are not associated with the outcome of infection.

Progress in the Mathematical Modelling of Visceral Leishmaniasis

The leishmaniases comprise a complex of diseases characterized by clinical outcomes that range from self-limiting to chronic, and disfiguring and stigmatizing to life threatening. Diagnostic methods, treatments, and vector and reservoir control options exist, but deciding the most effective interventions requires a quantitative understanding of the population level infection and disease dynamics. The effectiveness of any set of interventions has to be determined within the context of operational conditions, including economic and political commitment. Mathematical models are the best available tools for studying quantitative systems crossing disciplinary spheres (biology, medicine, economics) within environmental and societal constraints. In 2005, the World Health Assembly and government health ministers of India, Nepal, and Bangladesh signed a Memorandum of Understanding to eliminate the life threatening form of leishmaniasis, visceral leishmaniasis (VL), on the Indian subcontinent by 2015 through a combination of early case detection, improved treatments, and vector control. The elimination target is <1 case/10,000 population at the district or subdistrict level compared to the current 20/10,000 in the regions of highest transmission. Towards this goal, this chapter focuses on mathematical models of VL, and the biology driving those models, to enable realistic predictions of the best combination of interventions. Several key issues will be discussed which have affected previous modelling of VL and the direction future modelling may take. Current understanding of the natural history of disease, immunity (and loss of immunity), and stages of infection and their durations are considered particularly for humans, and also for dogs. Asymptomatic and clinical infection are discussed in the context of their relative roles in Leishmania transmission, as well as key components of the parasite-sandfly-vector interaction and intervention strategies including diagnosis, treatment and vector control. Gaps in current biological knowledge and potential avenues to improve model structures and mathematical predictions are identified. Underpinning the marriage between biology and mathematical modelling, the content of this chapter represents the first step towards developing the next generation of models for VL.

Integrating vector control across diseases

BACKGROUND

Vector-borne diseases cause a significant proportion of the overall burden of disease across the globe, accounting for over 10 % of the burden of infectious diseases. Despite the availability of effective interventions for many of these diseases, a lack of resources prevents their effective control. Many existing vector control interventions are known to be effective against multiple diseases, so combining vector control programmes to simultaneously tackle several diseases could offer more cost-effective and therefore sustainable disease reductions.

DISCUSSION

The highly successful cross-disease integration of vaccine and mass drug administration programmes in low-resource settings acts a precedent for cross-disease vector control. Whilst deliberate implementation of vector control programmes across multiple diseases has yet to be trialled on a large scale, a number of examples of 'accidental' cross-disease vector control suggest the potential of such an approach. Combining contemporary high-resolution global maps of the major vector-borne pathogens enables us to quantify overlap in their distributions and to estimate the populations jointly at risk of multiple diseases. Such an analysis shows that over 80 % of the global population live in regions of the world at risk from one vector-borne disease, and more than half the world's population live in areas where at least two different vector-borne diseases pose a threat to health. Combining information on co-endemicity with an assessment of the overlap of vector control methods effective against these diseases allows us to highlight opportunities for such integration. Malaria, leishmaniasis, lymphatic filariasis, and dengue are prime candidates for combined vector control. All four of these diseases overlap considerably in their distributions and there is a growing body of evidence for the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets, screens, and curtains for controlling all of their vectors. The real-world effectiveness of cross-disease vector control programmes can only be evaluated by large-scale trials, but there is clear evidence of the potential of such an approach to enable greater overall health benefit using the limited funds available.

Evidence-based vector control? Improving the quality of vector control trials

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) such as malaria, dengue, and leishmaniasis cause a high level of morbidity and mortality. Although vector control tools can play a major role in controlling and eliminating these diseases, in many cases the evidence base for assessing the efficacy of vector control interventions is limited or not available. Studies assessing the efficacy of vector control interventions are often poorly conducted, which limits the return on investment of research funding. Here we outline the principal design features of Phase III vector control field studies, highlight major failings and strengths of published studies, and provide guidance on improving the design and conduct of vector control studies. We hope that this critical assessment will increase the impetus for more carefully considered and rigorous design of vector control studies.

Uniting mathematics and biology for control of visceral leishmaniasis

The neglected tropical disease (NTD) visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem on the Indian subcontinent by 2017 or earlier. To date there is a surprising scarcity of mathematical models capable of capturing VL disease dynamics, which are widely considered central to planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions. The few models that have been developed are examined, highlighting the necessity for better data to parameterise and fit these and future models. In particular, the characterisation and infectiousness of the different disease stages will be crucial to elimination. Modelling can then assist in establishing whether, when, and how the WHO VL elimination targets can be met.