Modeling Relapsing Disease Dynamics in a Host-Vector Community

Experimental transmission of a novel relapsing fever group Borrelia harbored by Ornithodoros octodontus (Ixodida: Argasidae) in Chile

Tick-borne relapsing fever spirochetes of genus Borrelia thrive in enzootic cycles involving Ornithodoros spp. (Argasidae) mainly, and rodents. The isolation of these spirochetes usually involves a murine model in which ticks are fed and the spirochetes detected in blood several days later. Such an experiment also demonstrates that a given species of tick is competent in the transmission of the bacteria. Here, soft ticks Ornithodoros octodontus were collected in Northern Chile with the objective to experimentally determine its capacity to transmit a Borrelia sp. detected in a previous study. Two Guinea pigs (Cavia porcellus) were used to feed nymphs and adults of O. octodontus and the spirochetes in blood were inspected by dark-field microscopy and nested PCR. Although spirochetes were not seen in blood, DNA was detected in only one animal 11 days after the ticks were fed. Genetic sequences of Borrelia flaB, clpX, pepX, recG, rplB, and uvrA genes retrieved from DNA extraction of positive blood were employed to construct two phylogenetic analyses. On the one hand, the flaB tree showed the Borrelia sp. transmitted by O. octodontus clustering with Borrelia sp. Alcohuaz, which was previously detected in that same tick species. On the other hand, concatenated clpX-pepX-recG-rplB-uvrA demonstrated that the characterized spirochete branches together with "Candidatus Borrelia caatinga", a recently discovered species from Brazil. Based on the genetic profile presented in this study, the name "Candidatus Borrelia octodonta" is proposed for the species transmitted by O. octodontus. The fact that spirochetes were not observed in blood of guinea pigs, may reflect the occurrence of low spirochetemia, which could be explained because the susceptibility of infection varies depending on the rodent species that is used in experimental models. Although the vertebrate reservoir of "Ca. Borrelia octodonta" is still unknown, Octodon degus, a rodent species that is commonly parasitized by O. octodontus, should be a future target to elucidate this issue.

A 'Portfolio of Model Approximations' approach to understanding invasion success with vector-borne disease

The central challenge of mathematical modeling of real-world systems is to strike an appropriate balance between insightful abstraction and detailed accuracy. Models in mathematical epidemiology frequently tend to either extreme, focusing on analytically provable boundaries in simplified, mass-action approximations, or else relying on calculated numerical solutions and computational simulation experiments to capture nuance and details specific to a particular host-disease system. We propose that there is value in an approach striking a slightly different compromise in which a detailed but analytically difficult system is modeled with careful detail, but then abstraction is applied to the results of numerical solutions to that system, rather than to the biological system itself. In this 'Portfolio of Model Approximations' approach, multiple levels of approximation are used to analyze the model at different scales of complexity. While this method has the potential to introduce error in the translation from model to model, it also has the potential to produce generalizable insight for the set of all similar systems, rather than isolated, tailored results that must be started anew for each next question. In this paper, we demonstrate this process and its value with a case study from evolutionary epidemiology. We consider a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for a vector-borne pathogen affecting two annually reproducing hosts. From observing patterns in simulations of the system and exploiting basic epidemiological properties, we construct two approximations of the model at different levels of complexity that can be treated as hypotheses about the behavior of the model. We compare the predictions of the approximations to the simulated results and discuss the trade-offs between accuracy and abstraction. We discuss the implications for this particular model, and in the context of mathematical biology in general.

Tick borne relapsing fever - a systematic review and analysis of the literature

Tick borne relapsing fever (TBRF) is a zoonosis caused by various Borrelia species transmitted to humans by both soft-bodied and (more recently recognized) hard-bodied ticks. In recent years, molecular diagnostic techniques have allowed to extend our knowledge on the global epidemiological picture of this neglected disease. Nevertheless, due to the patchy occurrence of the disease and the lack of large clinical studies, the knowledge on several clinical aspects of the disease remains limited. In order to shed light on some of these aspects, we have systematically reviewed the literature on TBRF and summarized the existing data on epidemiology and clinical aspects of the disease. Publications were identified by using a predefined search strategy on electronic databases and a subsequent review of the reference lists of the obtained publications. All publications reporting patients with a confirmed diagnosis of TBRF published in English, French, Italian, German, and Hungarian were included. Maps showing the epidemiogeographic mosaic of the different TBRF Borrelia species were compiled and data on clinical aspects of TBRF were analysed. The epidemiogeographic mosaic of TBRF is complex and still continues to evolve. Ticks harbouring TBRF Borrelia have been reported worldwide, with the exception of Antarctica and Australia. Although only molecular diagnostic methods allow for species identification, microscopy remains the diagnostic gold standard in most clinical settings. The most suggestive symptom in TBRF is the eponymous relapsing fever (present in 100% of the cases). Thrombocytopenia is the most suggestive laboratory finding in TBRF. Neurological complications are frequent in TBRF. Treatment is with beta-lactams, tetracyclines or macrolids. The risk of Jarisch-Herxheimer reaction (JHR) appears to be lower in TBRF (19.3%) compared to louse-borne relapsing fever (LBRF) (55.8%). The overall case fatality rate of TBRF (6.5%) and LBRF (4-10.2%) appears to not differ. Unlike LBRF, where perinatal fatalities are primarily attributable to abortion, TBRF-related perinatal fatalities appear to primarily affect newborns.

Transovarial Transmission of Borrelia hermsii by Its Tick Vector and Reservoir Host Ornithodoros hermsi

Transovarial passage of relapsing fever spirochetes (Borrelia species) by infected female argasid ticks to their progeny is a widespread phenomenon. Yet this form of vertical inheritance has been considered rare for the North American tick Ornithodoros hermsi infected with Borrelia hermsii. A laboratory colony of O. hermsi was established from a single infected female and two infected males that produced a population of ticks with a high prevalence of transovarial transmission based on infection assays of single and pooled ticks feeding on mice and immunofluorescence microscopy of eggs and larvae. Thirty-eight of forty-five (84.4%) larval cohorts (groups of larvae originating from the same egg clutch) transmitted B. hermsii to mice over four and a half years, and one hundred and three single and one hundred and fifty-three pooled nymphal and adult ticks transmitted spirochetes during two hundred and fourteen of two hundred and fifty-six (83.6%) feedings on mice over seven and a half years. The perpetuation of B. hermsii for many years by infected ticks only (without acquisition of spirochetes from vertebrate hosts) demonstrates the reservoir competence of O. hermsi. B. hermsii produced the variable tick protein in eggs and unfed larvae infected by transovarial transmission, leading to speculation of the possible steps in the evolution of borreliae from a tick-borne symbiont to a tick-transmitted parasite of vertebrates.

Global analysis of multi-host and multi-vector epidemic models

We formulate a multi-group and multi-vector epidemic model in which hosts' dynamics is captured by staged-progression S E I R framework and the dynamics of vectors is captured by an SI framework. The proposed model describes the evolution of a class of zoonotic infections where the pathogen is shared by m host species and transmitted by p arthropod vector species. In each host, the infectious period is structured into n stages with a corresponding infectiousness parameter to each vector species. We determine the basic reproduction number R 0 2 ( m , n , p ) and investigate the dynamics of the systems when this threshold is less or greater than one. We show that the dynamics of the multi-host, multi-stage, and multi-vector system is completely determined by the basic reproduction number and the structure of the host-vector network configuration. Particularly, we prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) whenever R 0 2 ( m , n , p ) < 1 , and a unique strongly endemic equilibrium exists and is GAS if R 0 2 ( m , n , p ) > 1 and the host-vector configuration is irreducible. That is, either the disease dies out or persists in all hosts and all vector species.

Multi-stage Vector-Borne Zoonoses Models: A Global Analysis

A class of models that describes the interactions between multiple host species and an arthropod vector is formulated and its dynamics investigated. A host-vector disease model where the host's infection is structured into n stages is formulated and a complete global dynamics analysis is provided. The basic reproduction number acts as a sharp threshold, that is, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) whenever [Formula: see text] and that a unique interior endemic equilibrium exists and is GAS if [Formula: see text]. We proceed to extend this model with m host species, capturing a class of zoonoses where the cross-species bridge is an arthropod vector. The basic reproduction number of the multi-host-vector, [Formula: see text], is derived and shown to be the sum of basic reproduction numbers of the model when each host is isolated with an arthropod vector. It is shown that the disease will persist in all hosts as long as it persists in one host. Moreover, the overall basic reproduction number increases with respect to the host and that bringing the basic reproduction number of each isolated host below unity in each host is not sufficient to eradicate the disease in all hosts. This is a type of "amplification effect," that is, for the considered vector-borne zoonoses, the increase in host diversity increases the basic reproduction number and therefore the disease burden.

Host associations and genomic diversity of Borrelia hermsii in an endemic focus of tick-borne relapsing fever in western North America

Background

An unrecognized focus of tick-borne relapsing fever caused by Borrelia hermsii was identified in 2002 when five people became infected on Wild Horse Island in Flathead Lake, Montana. The terrestrial small mammal community on the island is composed primarily of pine squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) and deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus), neither of which was known as a natural host for the spirochete. Thus a 3-year study was performed to identify small mammals as hosts for B. hermsii.

Methods

Small mammals were captured alive on two island and three mainland sites, blood samples were collected and examined for spirochetes, and serological tests performed to detect anti-B. hermsii antibodies. Ornithodoros hermsi ticks were collected and fed on laboratory mice to assess infection. Genomic DNA samples from spirochetes isolated from infected mammals and ticks were analyzed by multilocus sequence typing.

Results

Eighteen pine squirrels and one deer mouse had detectable spirochetemias when captured, from which 12 isolates of B. hermsii were established. Most pine squirrels were seropositive, and the five species of sciurids combined had a significantly higher prevalence of seropositive animals than did the other six small mammal species captured. The greater diversity of small mammals on the mainland in contrast to the islands demonstrated that other species in addition to pine squirrels were also involved in the maintenance of B. hermsii at Flathead Lake. Ornithodoros hermsi ticks produced an additional 12 isolates of B. hermsii and multilocus sequence typing identified both genomic groups of B. hermsii described previously, and identified a new genomic subdivision. Experimental infections of deer mice with two strains of B. hermsii demonstrated that these animals were susceptible to infection with spirochetes belonging to Genomic Group II but not Genomic Group I.

Conclusions

Pine squirrels are the primary hosts for the maintenance of B. hermsii on the islands in Flathead Lake, however serological evidence showed that numerous additional species are also involved on the mainland. Future studies testing the susceptibility of several small mammal species to infection with different genetic types of B. hermsii will help define their role as hosts in this and other endemic foci.

Tick-Borne Relapsing Fever Spirochetes in the Americas

Relapsing fever spirochetes are tick- and louse-borne pathogens that primarily afflict those in impoverished countries. Historically the pathogens have had a significant impact on public health, yet currently they are often overlooked because of the nonspecific display of disease. In this review, we discuss aspects of relapsing fever (RF) spirochete pathogenesis including the: (1) clinical manifestation of disease; (2) ability to diagnose pathogen exposure; (3) the pathogen’s life cycle in the tick and mammal; and (4) ecological factors contributing to the maintenance of RF spirochetes in nature.

Potential Impact of Sexual Transmission on Ebola Virus Epidemiology: Sierra Leone as a Case Study

BACKGROUND

Sexual transmission of Ebola virus disease (EVD) 6 months after onset of symptoms has been recently documented, and Ebola virus RNA has been detected in semen of survivors up to 9 months after onset of symptoms. As countries affected by the 2013-2015 epidemic in West Africa, by far the largest to date, are declared free of Ebola virus disease (EVD), it remains unclear what threat is posed by rare sexual transmission events that could arise from survivors.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We devised a compartmental mathematical model that includes sexual transmission from convalescent survivors: a SEICR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-convalescent-recovered) transmission model. We fitted the model to weekly incidence of EVD cases from the 2014-2015 epidemic in Sierra Leone. Sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations showed that a 0.1% per sex act transmission probability and a 3-month convalescent period (the two key unknown parameters of sexual transmission) create very few additional cases, but would extend the epidemic by 83 days [95% CI: 68-98 days] (p < 0.0001) on average. Strikingly, a 6-month convalescent period extended the average epidemic by 540 days (95% CI: 508-572 days), doubling the current length, despite an insignificant rise in the number of new cases generated.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results show that reductions in the per sex act transmission probability via abstinence and condom use should reduce the number of sporadic sexual transmission events, but will not significantly reduce the epidemic size and may only minimally shorten the length of time the public health community must maintain response preparedness. While the number of infectious survivors is expected to greatly decline over the coming months, our results show that transmission events may still be expected for quite some time as each event results in a new potential cluster of non-sexual transmission. Precise measurement of the convalescent period is thus important for planning ongoing surveillance efforts.