Convergent trends and spatiotemporal patterns of Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico and Central America

Epidemiological, virological and clinical characterization of a Dengue/Zika outbreak in the Caribbean region of Costa Rica 2017-2018

The increase in incidence and geographical expansion of viruses transmitted by the Aedes mosquitoes, such as dengue (DENV) and zika (ZIKV) in the Americas, represents a burden for healthcare systems in tropical and subtropical regions. These and other under-detected arboviruses co-circulate in Costa Rica, adding additional complexity to their management due to their shared epidemiological behavior and similarity of symptoms in early stages. Since diagnostics of febrile illness is mostly based on clinical symptoms alone, we gathered acute-phase serum and urine from 399 samples of acute dengue-like cases from two healthcare facilities of Costa Rica, during an outbreak of arboviruses from July 2017 to May 2018, and tested them using molecular and serological methods. The analyses showed that of the clinically presumptive arbovirus cases that were reported, only 39.4% (n=153) of the samples were confirmed positive by RT-PCR to be DENV (DENV (10.3%), CHIKV (0.2%), ZIKV (27.3%), or mixed infections (1.5%). RT-PCR for other alphaviruses and flaviviruses, and PCR for Leptospira sp were negative. Furthermore, to assess flavivirus positivity in post-acute patients, the negative sera were tested against Dengue-IgM. 20% of sera were found positive, confounding even more the definitive number of cases, and emphasizing the need of several distinct diagnostic tools for accurate diagnostics. Molecular characterization of the prM and E genes from isolated viruses revealed that the American/Asian genotype of DENV-2 and the Asian lineage of ZIKV were circulating during this outbreak. Two different clades of DENV-2 American/Asian genotype were identified to co-circulate in the same region and a difference in the platelet and leukocyte count was noted between people infected with each clade, suggesting a putative distinct virulence. Our study sheds light on the necessity for healthcare strategies in managing arbovirus outbreaks, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive molecular and serological diagnostic approaches, as well as molecular characterization. This approach aids in enhancing our understanding of the clinical and epidemiological aspects of arboviral diseases during outbreaks. Our research highlights the need to strengthen training programs for health professionals and the need to increase research-based on laboratory evidence for diagnostic accuracy, guidance, development and implementation of public health interventions and epidemiological surveillance.

Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue

Understanding how emerging infectious diseases spread within and between countries is essential to contain future pandemics. Spread to new areas requires connectivity between one or more sources and a suitable local environment, but how these two factors interact at different stages of disease emergence remains largely unknown. Further, no analytical framework exists to examine their roles. Here we develop a dynamic modelling approach for infectious diseases that explicitly models both connectivity via human movement and environmental suitability interactions. We apply it to better understand recently observed (1995-2019) patterns as well as predict past unobserved (1983-2000) and future (2020-2039) spread of dengue in Mexico and Brazil. We find that these models can accurately reconstruct long-term spread pathways, determine historical origins, and identify specific routes of invasion. We find early dengue invasion is more heavily influenced by environmental factors, resulting in patchy non-contiguous spread, while short and long-distance connectivity becomes more important in later stages. Our results have immediate practical applications for forecasting and containing the spread of dengue and emergence of new serotypes. Given current and future trends in human mobility, climate, and zoonotic spillover, understanding the interplay between connectivity and environmental suitability will be increasingly necessary to contain emerging and re-emerging pathogens.

Increasing transmission of dengue virus across ecologically diverse regions of Ecuador and associated risk factors

The distribution and intensity of viral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, including dengue, have rapidly increased over the last century. Here, we study dengue virus (DENV) transmission across the ecologically and demographically distinct regions or Ecuador. We analyzed province-level age-stratified dengue incidence data from 2000-2019 using catalytic models to estimate the force of infection of DENV over eight decades. We found that provinces established endemic DENV transmission at different time periods. Coastal provinces with the largest and most connected cities had the earliest and highest increase in DENV transmission, starting around 1980 and continuing to the present. In contrast, remote and rural areas with reduced access, like the northern coast and the Amazon regions, experienced a rise in DENV transmission and endemicity only in the last 10 to 20 years. The newly introduced chikungunya and Zika viruses have age-specific distributions of hospital-seeking cases consistent with recent emergence across all provinces. To evaluate factors associated with geographic differences in DENV transmission potential, we modeled DENV vector risk using 11,693 Aedes aegypti presence points to the resolution of 1 hectare. In total, 56% of the population of Ecuador, including in provinces identified as having increasing DENV transmission in our models, live in areas with high risk of Aedes aegypti, with population size, trash collection, elevation, and access to water as important determinants. Our investigation serves as a case study of the changes driving the expansion of DENV and other arboviruses globally and suggest that control efforts should be expanded to semi-urban and rural areas and to historically isolated regions to counteract increasing dengue outbreaks.