High-resolution molecular epidemiology and evolutionary history of HIV-1 subtypes in Albania

The origin, dissemination, and molecular networks of HIV-1 CRF65_cpx strain in Hainan Island, China

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 CRF65_cpx strain carries drug-resistant mutations, which raises concerns about its potential for causing virologic failure. The CRF65_cpx ranks as the fourth most prevalent on Hainan Island, China. However, the origin and molecular epidemiology of CRF65_cpx strains in this area remain unclear. This study aims to estimate the spatial origins and dissemination patterns of HIV-1 CRF65_cpx in this specific region.

METHODS

Between 2018 and 2021, a total of 58 pol sequences of the CRF65_cpx were collected from HIV-positive patients on Hainan Island. The available CRF65_cpx pol sequences from public databases were compiled. The HIV-TRACE tool was used to construct transmission networks. The evolutionary history of the introduction and dissemination of HIV-1 CRF65_cpx on Hainan Island were analyzed using phylogenetic analysis and the Bayesian coalescent-based approach.

RESULTS

Among the 58 participants, 89.66% were men who have sex with men (MSM). The median age was 25 years, and 43.10% of the individuals had a college degree or above. The results indicated that 39 (67.24%) sequences were interconnected within a single transmission network. A consistent expansion was evident from 2019 to 2021, with an incremental annual addition of four sequences into the networks. Phylodynamic analyses showed that the CRF65_cpx on Hainan Island originated from Beijing (Bayes factor, BF = 17.4), with transmission among MSM on Hainan Island in 2013.2 (95%HPD: 2012.4, 2019.5), subsequently leading to an outbreak. Haikou was the local center of the CRF65_cpx epidemic. This strain propagated from Haikou to other locations, including Sanya (BF > 1000), Danzhou (BF = 299.3), Chengmai (BF = 27.0) and Tunchang (BF = 16.3). The analyses of the viral migration patterns between age subgroups and risk subgroups revealed that the viral migration directions were from "25-40 years old" to "17-24 years old" (BF = 14.6) and to "over 40 years old" (BF = 17.6), and from MSM to heterosexuals (BF > 1000) on Hainan Island.

CONCLUSION

Our analyses elucidate the transmission dynamics of CRF65_cpx strain on Hainan Island. Haikou is identified as the potential hotspot for CRF65_cpx transmission, with middle-aged MSM identified as the key population. These findings suggest that targeted interventions in hotspots and key populations may be more effective in controlling the HIV epidemic.

Characterization of Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 Transmission Clusters and Transmitted Drug-Resistant Mutations in Croatia from 2019 to 2022

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection is challenging due to the highly diverse HIV-genome. We investigated the genetic diversity and prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) followed by phylogenetic analysis in 270 HIV-1 infected, treatment-naïve individuals from Croatia in the period 2019-2022. The results of this research confirmed a high overall prevalence of TDR of 16.7%. Resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), non-nucleoside RTIs (NNRTIs), and protease inhibitors (PIs) was found in 9.6%, 7.4%, and 1.5% of persons, respectively. No resistance to integrase strand-transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) was found. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 173/229 sequences (75.5%) were part of transmission clusters, and the largest identified was T215S, consisting of 45 sequences. Forward transmission was confirmed in several clusters. We compared deep sequencing (DS) with Sanger sequencing (SS) on 60 randomly selected samples and identified additional surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) in 49 of them. Our data highlight the need for baseline resistance testing in treatment-naïve persons. Although no major INSTIs were found, monitoring of SDRMs to INSTIs should be continued due to the extensive use of first- and second-generation INSTIs.

Transmitted HIV Drug Resistance in Bulgaria Occurs in Clusters of Individuals from Different Transmission Groups and Various Subtypes (2012-2020)

Transmitted HIV drug resistance in Bulgaria was first reported in 2015 using data from 1988-2011. We determined the prevalence of surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) and HIV-1 genetic diversity in Bulgaria during 2012-2020 using polymerase sequences from 1053 of 2010 (52.4%) antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive individuals. Sequences were analyzed for DRM using the WHO HIV SDRM list implemented in the calculated population resistance tool at Stanford University. Genetic diversity was inferred using automated subtyping tools and phylogenetics. Cluster detection and characterization was performed using MicrobeTrace. The overall rate of SDRMs was 5.7% (60/1053), with 2.2% having resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 1.8% to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 2.1% to protease inhibitors (PIs), and 0.4% with dual-class SDRMs. We found high HIV-1 diversity, with the majority being subtype B (60.4%), followed by F1 (6.9%), CRF02_AG (5.2%), A1 (3.7%), CRF12_BF (0.8%), and other subtypes and recombinant forms (23%). Most (34/60, 56.7%) of the SDRMs were present in transmission clusters of different subtypes composed mostly of male-to-male sexual contact (MMSC), including a 14-member cluster of subtype B sequences from 12 MMSC and two males reporting heterosexual contact; 13 had the L90M PI mutation and one had the T215S NRTI SDRM. We found a low SDRM prevalence amid high HIV-1 diversity among ART-naive patients in Bulgaria during 2012-2020. The majority of SDRMs were found in transmission clusters containing MMSC, indicative of onward spread of SDRM in drug-naive individuals. Our study provides valuable information on the transmission dynamics of HIV drug resistance in the context of high genetic diversity in Bulgaria, for the development of enhanced prevention strategies to end the epidemic.

Analysis of the Origin and Dissemination of HIV-1 Subtype C in Bulgaria

HIV-1 subtype C is the most abundant strain of HIV-1 infections worldwide and was found in the first known patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS in Bulgaria in 1986. However, there is limited information on the molecular-epidemiological characteristics of this strain in the epidemic of the country. In this study, we analyze the evolutionary history of the introduction and dissemination of HIV-1 subtype C in Bulgaria using global phylogenetic analysis, Bayesian coalescent-based approach, and molecular clock methods. All available samples with HIV-1 subtype C from individuals diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1986 and 2017 were analyzed. Men and women were equally represented, and 24.3% of patients reported being infected abroad. The global phylogenetic analysis indicated multiple introductions of HIV-1 subtype C from various countries of the world. The reconstruction of a Bayesian time-scaled phylogenies showed that several Bulgarian strains segregated together in clusters, while others were intermixed in larger clades containing strains isolated from both European and non-European countries. The time-scale of HIV-1 subtype C introductions in Bulgaria demonstrates the early introduction of these viruses in the country. Our in-depth phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses are compatible with a scenario of multiple early introductions in the country followed by limited local distribution in the subsequent years. HIV-1 subtype C was introduced in the early years of the epidemic, originating from different countries of the world. Due to the comprehensive measures for prevention and control in the early years of the epidemic in Bulgaria, HIV-1 subtype C was not widely disseminated among the general population of the country.

Computational Analysis and Phylogenetic Clustering of SARS-CoV-2 Genomes

COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, originated as an isolated outbreak in the Hubei province of China but soon created a global pandemic and is now a major threat to healthcare systems worldwide. Following the rapid human-to-human transmission of the infection, institutes around the world have made efforts to generate genome sequence data for the virus. With thousands of genome sequences for SARS-CoV-2 now available in the public domain, it is possible to analyze the sequences and gain a deeper understanding of the disease, its origin, and its epidemiology. Phylogenetic analysis is a potentially powerful tool for tracking the transmission pattern of the virus with a view to aiding identification of potential interventions. Toward this goal, we have created a comprehensive protocol for the analysis and phylogenetic clustering of SARS-CoV-2 genomes using Nextstrain, a powerful open-source tool for the real-time interactive visualization of genome sequencing data. Approaches to focus the phylogenetic clustering analysis on a particular region of interest are detailed in this protocol.

Comparison of COVID-19 Health Risks With Other Viral Occupational Hazards

The European Commission periodically classifies viruses on their occupational hazards to define the level of protection that workers are entitled to claim. Viruses belonging to Groups 3 and 4 can cause severe human disease and hazard to workers, as well as a spreading risk to the community. However, there is no effective prophylaxis or treatment available for Group 4 viruses. European trade unions and the Commission are negotiating the classification of the COVID-19 virus along these 2 categories. This article weighs the reasons to classify it in Group 3 or 4 while comparing its risks to those of the most significant viruses classified in these 2 categories. COVID-19 characteristics justify its classification in Group 4. Contaminated workers in contact with the public play an important role in disseminating the virus. In hospitals and nursing homes, they increase the overall case fatality rate. By strongly protecting these workers and professionals, the European Union would not only improve health in work environments, but also activate a mechanism key to reducing the COVID-19 burden in the general population. Admittedly, the availability of a new vaccine or treatment would change this conclusion, which was reached in the middle of the first pandemic.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in immigrant population in northern Italy

Human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) is characterised by a vast genetic diversity classified into distinct phylogenetic strains and recombinant forms. We describe the HIV-1 molecular epidemiology and evolution of 129 consecutive HIV-1 positive migrants living in Milan (northern Italy). Polymerase gene sequences of 116 HIV-1 subtype-B positive patients were aligned with HIV-1 reference sequences (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/) by using MAFFT alignment and edited by using Bioedit software. A maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic tree was performed by MEGA7 and was visualised by using FigTree v1.4.3. Of 129 migrants, 35 were born in Europe (28 in Eastern Europe), 70 in the Americas (67 in South America), 15 in Africa and nine in Asia; 76.4% were men who have sex with men (MSM). The serotype HIV-1-B prevailed (89.9%), followed by -C, -F1, -D and -A. Compared with 116 HIV-B patients, the 13 with HIV-non-B showed lower Nadir of CD4+ cell/mmc (P = 0.043), more frequently had sub Saharan origin (38.5 vs. 1.72%, P = 0.0001) and less frequently were MSM (40 vs. 74.5%, P = 0.02). The ML phylogenetic tree of the 116 HIV-1 subtype-B positive patients showed 13 statistically supported nodes (bootstrap > 70%). Most of the sequences included in these nodes have been isolated from male patients from the Americas and the most common risk factor was MSM. The low number of HIV-1 non-B subtype patients did not allow to perform this analysis. These results suggest a shift of HIV-1 prevention projects' focus and a continuous monitoring of HIV-1 molecular epidemiology among entry populations. Prevention efforts based on HIV molecular epidemiology may improve public health surveillance setting.

The phylogenetic approach for viral infectious disease evolution and epidemiology: An updating review

In the last decade, the phylogenetic approach is recurrent in molecular evolutionary analysis. On 12 May, 2019, about 2 296 213 papers are found, but typing "phylogeny" or "epidemiology AND phylogeny" only 199 804 and 20 133 are retrieved, respectively. Molecular epidemiology in infectious diseases is widely used to define the source of infection as so as the ancestral relationships of individuals sampled from a population. Coalescent theory and phylogeographic analysis have had scientific application in several, recent pandemic events, and nosocomial outbreaks. Hepatitis viruses and immunodeficiency virus (human immunodeficiency virus) have been largely studied. Phylogenetic analysis has been recently applied on Polyomaviruses so as in the more recent outbreaks due to different arboviruses type as Zika and chikungunya viruses discovering the source of infection and the geographic spread. Data on sequences isolated by the microorganism are essential to apply the phylogenetic tools and research in the field of infectious disease phylodinamics is growing up. There is the need to apply molecular phylogenetic and evolutionary methods in areas out of infectious diseases, as translational genomics and personalized medicine. Lastly, the application of these tools in vaccine strategy so as in antibiotic and antiviral researchers are encouraged.

PastView: a user-friendly interface to explore ancestral scenarios

BACKGROUND

Ancestral character states computed from the combination of phylogenetic trees with extrinsic traits are used to decipher evolutionary scenarios in various research fields such as phylogeography, epidemiology, and ecology. Despite the existence of powerful methods and software in ancestral character state inference, difficulties may arise when interpreting the outputs of such inferences. The growing complexity of data (trees, annotations), the diversity of optimization criteria for computing trees and ancestral character states, the combinatorial explosion of potential evolutionary scenarios if some ancestral characters states do not stand out clearly from others, requires the design of new methods to explore associations of phylogenetic trees with extrinsic traits, to ease the visualization and interpretation of evolutionary scenarios.

RESULT

We developed PastView, a user-friendly interface that includes numerical and graphical features to help users to import and/or compute ancestral character states from discrete variables and extract ancestral scenarios as sets of successive transitions of character states from the tree root to its leaves. PastView provides summarized views such as transition maps and integrates comparative tools to highlight agreements or discrepancies between methods of ancestral annotations inference.

CONCLUSION

The main contribution of PastView is to assemble known numerical and graphical methods into a multi-maps graphical user interface dedicated to the computing, searching and viewing of evolutionary scenarios based on phylogenetic trees and ancestral character states. PastView is available publicly as a standalone software on www.pastview.org .

Reconstruction of the Genetic History and the Current Spread of HIV-1 Subtype A in Germany

HIV-1 non-B infections have been increasing in Europe for several years. In Germany, subtype A belongs to the most abundant non-B subtypes showing an increasing prevalence of 8.3% among new infections in 2016. Here we trace the origin and examine the current spread of the German HIV-1 subtype A epidemic. Bayesian coalescence and birth-death analyses were performed with 180 German HIV-1 pol sequences and 528 related and publicly available sequences to reconstruct the population dynamics and fluctuations for each of the transmission groups. Our reconstructions indicate two distinct sources of the German subtype A epidemic, with an Eastern European and an Eastern African lineage both cocirculating in the country. A total of 13 German-origin clusters were identified; among these, 6 clusters showed recent activity. Introductions leading to further countrywide spread originated predominantly from Eastern Africa when introduced before 2005. Since 2005, however, spreading introductions have occurred exclusively within the Eastern European clade. Moreover, we observed changes in the main route of subtype A transmission. The beginning of the German epidemic (1985 to 1995) was dominated by heterosexual transmission of the Eastern African lineage. Since 2005, transmissions among German men who have sex with men (MSM) have been increasing and have been associated with the Eastern European lineage. Infections among people who inject drugs dominated between 1998 and 2005. Our findings on HIV-1 subtype A infections provide new insights into the spread of this virus and extend the understanding of the HIV epidemic in Germany.IMPORTANCE HIV-1 subtype A is the second most prevalent subtype worldwide, with a high prevalence in Eastern Africa and Eastern Europe. However, an increase of non-B infections, including subtype A infections, has been observed in Germany and other European countries. There has simultaneously been an increased flow of refugees into Europe and especially into Germany, raising the question of whether the surge in non-B infections resulted from this increased immigration or whether German transmission chains are mainly involved. This study is the first comprehensive subtype A study from a western European country analyzing in detail its phylogenetic origin, the impact of various transmission routes, and its current spread. The results and conclusions presented provide new and substantial insights for virologists, epidemiologists, and the general public health sector. In this regard, they should be useful to those authorities responsible for developing public health intervention strategies to combat the further spread of HIV/AIDS.

HIV-genetic diversity and drug resistance transmission clusters in Gondar, Northern Ethiopia, 2003-2013

BACKGROUND

The HIV-1 epidemic in Ethiopia has been shown to be dominated by two phylogenetically distinct subtype C clades, the Ethiopian (C'-ET) and East African (C-EA) clades, however, little is known about the temporal dynamics of the HIV epidemic with respect to subtypes and distinct clades. Moreover, there is only limited information concerning transmission of HIV-1 drug resistance (TDR) in the country.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted among young antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve individuals recently diagnosed with HIV infection, in Gondar, Ethiopia, 2011-2013 using the WHO recommended threshold survey. A total of 84 study participants with a median age of 22 years were enrolled. HIV-1 genotyping was performed and investigated for drug resistance in 67 individuals. Phylogenetic analyses were performed on all available HIV sequences obtained from Gondar (n = 301) which were used to define subtype C clades, temporal trends and local transmission clusters. Dating of transmission clusters was performed using BEAST.

RESULT

Four of 67 individuals (6.0%) carried a HIV drug resistance mutation strain, all associated with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI). Strains of the C-EA clade were most prevalent as we found no evidence of temporal changes during this time period. However, strains of the C-SA clade, prevalent in Southern Africa, have been introduced in Ethiopia, and became more abundant during the study period. The oldest Gondar transmission clusters dated back to 1980 (C-EA), 1983 (C-SA) and 1990 (C'-ET) indicating the presence of strains of different subtype C clades at about the same time point in Gondar. Moreover, some of the larger clusters dated back to the 1980s but transmissions within clusters have been ongoing up till end of the study period. Besides being associated with more sequences and larger clusters, the C-EA clade sequences were also associated with clustering of HIVDR sequences. One cluster was associated with the G190A mutation and showed onward transmissions at high rate.

CONCLUSION

TDR was detected in 6.0% of the sequenced samples and confirmed pervious reports that the two subtype C clades, C-EA and C'-ET, are common in Ethiopia. Moreover, the findings indicated an increased diversity in the epidemic as well as differences in transmission clusters sizes of the different clades and association with resistance mutations. These findings provide epidemiological insights not directly available using standard surveillance and may inform the adjustment of public health strategies in HIV prevention in Ethiopia.

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 Virus in Puerto Rico: Novel Cases of HIV-1 Subtype C, D, and CRF-24BG

HIV-1 subtype B virus is the most prevalent subtype in Puerto Rico (PR), accounting for about 90% of infection in the island. Recently, other subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs), including F(12_BF), A (01_BF), and CRF-39 BF-like, have been identified. The purpose of this study is to assess the distribution of drug resistance mutations and subtypes in PR. A total of 846 nucleotide sequences from the period comprising 2013 through 2017 were obtained from our "HIV Genotyping" test file. Phylogenetic and molecular epidemiology analyses were performed to evaluate the evolutionary dynamics and prevalence of drug resistance mutations. According to our results, we detected a decrease in the prevalence of protease inhibitor, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), and non-NRTI (NNRTI) resistance mutations over time. In addition, we also detected recombinant forms and, for the first time, identified subtypes C, D, and CRF-24BG in PR. Recent studies suggest that non-subtypes B are associated with a high risk of treatment failure and disease progression. The constant monitoring of viral evolution and drug resistance mutation dynamics is important to establish appropriate efforts for controlling viral expansion.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in Europe: An overview

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) is characterised by vast genetic diversity. Globally circulating HIV-1 viruses are classified into distinct phylogenetic strains (subtypes, sub-subtypes) and several recombinant forms. Here we describe the characteristics and evolution of European HIV-1 epidemic over time through a review of published literature and updated queries of existing HIV-1 sequence databases. HIV-1 in Western and Central Europe was introduced in the early-1980s in the form of subtype B, which is still the predominant clade. However, in Eastern Europe (Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries and Russia) the predominant strain, introduced into Ukraine in the mid-1990s, is subtype A (A_FSU) with transmission mostly occurring in People Who Inject Drugs (PWID). In recent years, the epidemic is evolving towards a complex tapestry with an increase in the prevalence of non-B subtypes and recombinants in Western and Central Europe. Non-B epidemics are mainly associated with immigrants, heterosexuals and females but more recently, non-B clades have also spread amongst groups where non-B strains were previously absent - non-immigrant European populations and amongst men having sex with men (MSM). In some countries, non-B clades have spread amongst the native population, for example subtype G in Portugal and subtype A in Greece, Albania and Cyprus. Romania provides a unique case where sub-subtype F1 has predominated throughout the epidemic. In contrast, HIV-1 epidemic in FSU countries remains more homogeneous with A_FSU clade predominating in all countries. The differences between the evolution of the Western epidemic and the Eastern epidemic may be attributable to differences in transmission risk behaviours, lifestyle and the patterns of human mobility. The study of HIV-1 epidemic diversity provides a useful tool by which we can understand the history of the pandemic in addition to allowing us to monitor the spread and growth of the epidemic over time.

Spatio-Temporal History of HIV-1 CRF35_AD in Afghanistan and Iran

HIV-1 Circulating Recombinant Form 35_AD (CRF35_AD) has an important position in the epidemiological profile of Afghanistan and Iran. Despite the presence of this clade in Afghanistan and Iran for over a decade, our understanding of its origin and dissemination patterns is limited. In this study, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic analysis to reconstruct the spatio-temporal dispersion pattern of this clade using eligible CRF35_AD gag and pol sequences available in the Los Alamos HIV database (432 sequences available from Iran, 16 sequences available from Afghanistan, and a single CRF35_AD-like pol sequence available from USA). Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm was implemented in BEAST v1.8.1. Between-country dispersion rates were tested with Bayesian stochastic search variable selection method and were considered significant where Bayes factor values were greater than three. The findings suggested that CRF35_AD sequences were genetically similar to parental sequences from Kenya and Uganda, and to a set of subtype A1 sequences available from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan. Our results also showed that across all phylogenies, Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD sequences formed a monophyletic cluster (posterior clade credibility> 0.7). The divergence date of this cluster was estimated to be between 1990 and 1992. Within this cluster, a bidirectional dispersion of the virus was observed across Afghanistan and Iran. We could not clearly identify if Afghanistan or Iran first established or received this epidemic, as the root location of this cluster could not be robustly estimated. Three CRF35_AD sequences from Afghan refugees living in Pakistan nested among Afghan and Iranian CRF35_AD branches. However, the CRF35_AD-like sequence available from USA diverged independently from Kenyan subtype A1 sequences, suggesting it not to be a true CRF35_AD lineage. Potential factors contributing to viral exchange between Afghanistan and Iran could be injection drug networks and mass migration of Afghan refugees and labours to Iran, which calls for extensive preventive efforts.

Zika Virus spreading in South America: Evolutionary analysis of emerging neutralizing resistant Phe279Ser strains

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the genetic diversity of Zika Virus (ZIKV) and the relationships existing among these circulating viruses worldwide. To evaluate the genetic polymorphisms harbored from ZIKV that can have an influence on the virus circulation.

METHODS

Three different ZIKV dataset were built. The first dataset included 63 E gene sequences, the second one 22 NS3 sequences and the third dataset was composed of 108 NS5 gene sequences. Phylogenetic and selective pressure analysis was performed. The edited nucleic acid alignment from the Envelope dataset was used to generate a conceptual translation to the corresponding peptide sequences through UGene software.

RESULTS

The phylogeographic reconstruction was able to discriminate unambiguously that the Brazilian strains are belonged to the Asian lineage. The structural analysis reveals instead the presence of the Ser residue in the Brazilian sequences (however already observed in other previously reported ZIKV infections) that could suggest the presence of a neutralization-resistant population of viruses.

CONCLUSIONS

Phylogenetic, evolutionary and selective pressure analysis contributed to improve the knowledge on the circulation of ZIKV.

The Genetic Diversity and Evolution of HIV-1 Subtype B Epidemic in Puerto Rico

HIV-1 epidemics in Caribbean countries, including Puerto Rico, have been reported to be almost exclusively associated with the subtype B virus (HIV-1B). However, while HIV infections associated with other clades have been only sporadically reported, no organized data exist to accurately assess the prevalence of non-subtype B HIV-1 infection. We analyzed the nucleotide sequence data of the HIV pol gene associated with HIV isolates from Puerto Rican patients. The sequences (n = 945) were obtained from our “HIV Genotyping” test file, which has been generated over a period of 14 years (2001–2014). REGA subtyping tool found the following subtypes: B (90%), B-like (3%), B/D recombinant (6%), and D/B recombinant (0.6%). Though there were fewer cases, the following subtypes were also found (in the given proportions): A1B (0.3%), BF1 (0.2%), subtype A (01-AE) (0.1%), subtype A (A2) (0.1%), subtype F (12BF) (0.1%), CRF-39 BF-like (0.1%), and others (0.1%). Some of the recombinants were identified as early as 2001. Although the HIV epidemic in Puerto Rico is primarily associated with HIV-1B virus, our analysis uncovered the presence of other subtypes. There was no indication of subtype C, which has been predominantly associated with heterosexual transmission in other parts of the world.

Impact of spatial dispersion, evolution, and selection on Ebola Zaire Virus epidemic waves

Ebola virus Zaire (EBOV) has reemerged in Africa, emphasizing the global importance of this pathogen. Amidst the response to the current epidemic, several gaps in our knowledge of EBOV evolution are evident. Specifically, uncertainty has been raised regarding the potential emergence of more virulent viral variants through amino acid substitutions. Glycoprotein (GP), an essential component of the EBOV genome, is highly variable and a potential site for the occurrence of advantageous mutations. For this study, we reconstructed the evolutionary history of EBOV by analyzing 65 GP sequences from humans and great apes over diverse locations across epidemic waves between 1976 and 2014. We show that, although patterns of spatial dispersion throughout Africa varied, the evolution of the virus has largely been characterized by neutral genetic drift. Therefore, the radical emergence of more transmissible variants is unlikely, a positive finding, which is increasingly important on the verge of vaccine deployment.

Low HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance in Bulgaria against a background of high clade diversity

OBJECTIVES

To determine transmitted drug resistance (TDR) and HIV-1 genetic diversity in Bulgaria.

METHODS

The prevalence of TDR and HIV-1 subtypes was determined in 305/1446 (21.1%) persons newly diagnosed with HIV/AIDS from 1988 to 2011. TDR mutations (TDRMs) in protease and reverse transcriptase were defined using the WHO HIV drug mutation list. Phylogenetic analysis was used to infer polymerase (pol) genotype.

RESULTS

TDRMs were found in 16/305 (5.2%) persons, 11 (3.6%) with resistance to NRTIs, 5 (1.6%) with resistance to NNRTIs and 3 (0.9%) with resistance to PIs. Dual-class TDRMs were found in three (1.0%) patients and one statistically supported cluster of TDRMs comprising two individuals with subtype B infection. TDRMs were found in 10 heterosexuals, 4 MSM and two intravenous drug users. Phylogenetic analyses identified high HIV-1 diversity consisting of mostly subtype B (44.6%), subtype C (3.3%), sub-subtype A1 (2.6%), sub-subtype F1 (2.3%), sub-subtype A-like (3.6%), subtype G (0.3%), CRF14_BG (1.6%), CRF05_DF (1.3%), CRF03_AB (0.3%) and unique recombinant forms (1.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

We found a low prevalence of TDR against a background of high HIV-1 genetic diversity among antiretroviral-naive patients in Bulgaria. Our results provide baseline data on TDR and support continued surveillance of high-risk populations in Bulgaria to better target treatment and prevention efforts.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of dissemination of non-pandemic HIV-1 subtype B clades in the Caribbean region

The Human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) epidemic in the Caribbean region is mostly driven by subtype B; but information about the pattern of viral spread in this geographic region is scarce and different studies point to quite divergent models of viral dissemination. In this study, we reconstructed the spatiotemporal and population dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in the Caribbean. A total of 1,806 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences collected from 17 different Caribbean islands between 1996 and 2011 were analyzed together with sequences from the United States (n = 525) and France (n = 340) included as control. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses revealed that HIV-1 subtype B infections in the Caribbean are driven by dissemination of the pandemic clade (BPANDEMIC) responsible for most subtype B infections across the world, and older non-pandemic lineages (BCAR) characteristics of the Caribbean region. The non-pandemic BCAR strains account for >40% of HIV-1 infections in most Caribbean islands; with exception of Cuba and Puerto Rico. Bayesian phylogeographic analyses indicate that BCAR strains probably arose in the island of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic) around the middle 1960s and were later disseminated to Trinidad and Tobago and to Jamaica between the late 1960s and the early 1970s. In the following years, the BCAR strains were also disseminated from Hispaniola and Trinidad and Tobago to other Lesser Antilles islands at multiple times. The BCAR clades circulating in Hispaniola, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago appear to have experienced an initial phase of exponential growth, with mean estimated growth rates of 0.35-0.45 year(-1), followed by a more recent stabilization since the middle 1990s. These results demonstrate that non-pandemic subtype B lineages have been widely disseminated through the Caribbean since the late 1960s and account for an important fraction of current HIV-1 infections in the region.

Phylogeographic analysis on the travel-related introduction of HIV-1 non-B subtypes to Northern Poland

Phylodynamic, sequence data based reconstructions for the surveillance of the geographic spatial spread are a powerful tool in molecular epidemiology. In this study region of origin for the set of 57 partial pol sequences derived from the patients the history of travel-related HIV transmission was analyzed using phylogeographic approach. Maximum likelihood trees based on the sets of country-annotated reference sequences were inferred for identified non-B variants. Region of sequence import was assigned using on the highest approximate likelihood ratios. Import of the A1 clades was traced to the Eastern Europe and associated with immigration from this region. Subtype C infections clustered most frequently with sequences of the South African origin while majority of subtype Ds were similar to the European clades. Subtype G sequences clustered with Portuguese lineage, CRF01_AE with Eastern or South-Eastern Asian. Eastern European, Middle African or Western African lineage was assigned for the CFR02_AG. Rare circulating recombinants originated either from Central Africa (CRF11_cpx - Democratic Republic of Congo, CRF13_cpx - Central African Republic, CRF37_cpx - Cameroon) or South America (CRF28_BF and CRF46_BF - Brazil). Import of the HIV-1 non-B variants, including recombinant forms previously rarely found in Poland and Europe is frequent among travelers. Observed founder events result in the heterosexually-driven introduction of the novel HIV-1 variants into the population.

Ten years survey of primary HIV-1 resistance in Serbia: the occurrence of multiclass resistance

In Serbia, the first cases of HIV infection were reported in 1985, whereas antiretroviral (ARV) therapy has been in use since 1987. With this study we aimed to assess the occurrence and pattern of HIV resistance mutations among newly diagnosed patients in the period 2002-2011. The study prospectively included 181 adult patients. Genotypic HIV-1 drug resistance testing was performed and drug resistance was scored according to the 2009 WHO list for surveillance of drug resistance mutations (SDRMs). A bioinformatic approach was used to estimate the duration of infection by calculating the percentage of ambiguous basecalls per sequence, with a cutoff of 0.47% as the delimiter for recent infection. The overall prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) found in the study was 8.8% (16/181, 95% CI=5.5-13.8). Thirty-one percent of resistant samples contained multiple SDRMs. In particular, 5/16 patients with resistance carried viral strains with SDRMs to multiple ARV classes, hence one-third of resistant strains were multiclass resistant, including non-B strains. A total of 51.9% of samples (94/181) were classified as recent infection, with a significant increase in the second part of the study period. However, the prevalence of TDR in recent infection was 6.4% (6/94, 95% CI=2.9-13.2), not statistically different from that found in nonrecent infection. We showed a changing pattern of TDR mutations over the study period, with a substantial occurrence of multiclass resistance, across different HIV subtypes. Our results highlight the need for continued surveillance of primary resistance.

Short communication: molecular epidemiology of HIV type 1 infection in northern Greece (2009-2010): evidence of a transmission cluster of HIV type 1 subtype A1 drug-resistant strains among men who have sex with men

A prospective molecular epidemiology study of HIV-1 infection was conducted in newly diagnosed and antiretroviral-naive patients in Northern Greece between 2009 and 2010 using a predefined enrolling strategy. Phylogenetic trees of the pol sequences obtained in this study with reference sequences indicated that subtypes B and A1 were the most common subtypes present and accounted for 44.9% and 42.9%, respectively, followed by subtype C (3.1%), CRF02_AG (4.1%), CRF04_cpx (2.0%), and subtypes CRF01_01, F1, and G (1.0%). A high rate of clustered transmission of subtype A1-resistant strains to reverse transcriptase (RT) inhibitors was observed among men having sex with men. Indeed, 15 out of 17 study subjects (88.2%) infected with transmitted drug resistance (TDR) strains were implicated in transmission clusters, 10 of whom (66.7%) were men who have sex with men (MSM), and were also infected with subsubtype A1 strains. The main cluster within subtype A1 (I) included eight men reporting having sex with men from Thessaloniki infected with dual-class RT-resistant strains carrying both T215C and Y181C mutations.

Molecular epidemiology of community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the genomic era: a cross-sectional study

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a leading cause of healthcare-associated infections and significant contributor to healthcare cost. Community-associated-MRSA (CA-MRSA) strains have now invaded healthcare settings. A convenience sample of 97 clinical MRSA isolates was obtained from seven hospitals during a one-week period in 2010. We employed a framework integrating Staphylococcus protein A typing and full-genome next-generation sequencing. Single nucleotide polymorphisms were analyzed using phylodynamics. Twenty-six t002, 48 t008, and 23 other strains were identified. Phylodynamic analysis of 30 t008 strains showed ongoing exponential growth of the effective population size the basic reproductive number (R0) ranging from 1.24 to 1.34. No evidence of hospital clusters was identified. The lack of phylogeographic clustering suggests that community introduction is a major contributor to emergence of CA-MRSA strains within hospitals. Phylodynamic analysis provides a powerful framework to investigate MRSA transmission between the community and hospitals, an understanding of which is essential for control.

Phylodynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba

Previous studies have shown that the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba displayed a complex molecular epidemiologic profile with circulation of several subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRF); but the evolutionary and population history of those viral variants remains unknown. HIV-1 pol sequences of the most prevalent Cuban lineages (subtypes B, C and G, CRF18_cpx, CRF19_cpx, and CRFs20/23/24_BG) isolated between 1999 and 2011 were analyzed. Maximum-likelihood analyses revealed multiple introductions of subtype B (n≥66), subtype C (n≥10), subtype G (n≥8) and CRF18_cpx (n≥2) viruses in Cuba. The bulk of HIV-1 infections in this country, however, was caused by dissemination of a few founder strains probably introduced from North America/Europe (clades B_CU-I and B_CU-II), east Africa (clade C_CU-I) and central Africa (clades G_CU, CRF18_CU and CRF19_CU), or locally generated (clades CRFs20/23/24_BG). Bayesian-coalescent analyses show that the major HIV-1 founder strains were introduced into Cuba during 1985–1995; whereas the CRFs_BG strains emerged in the second half of the 1990s. Most HIV-1 Cuban clades appear to have experienced an initial period of fast exponential spread during the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a more recent decline in growth rate. The median initial growth rate of HIV-1 Cuban clades ranged from 0.4 year⁻¹ to 1.6 year⁻¹. Thus, the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba has been a result of the successful introduction of a few viral strains that began to circulate at a rather late time of the AIDS pandemic, but then were rapidly disseminated through local transmission networks.

Prospects of elimination of HIV with test-and-treat strategy

Recently, there has been much debate about the prospects of eliminating HIV from high endemic countries by a test-and-treat strategy. This strategy entails regular HIV testing in the entire population and starting antiretroviral treatment immediately in all who are found to be HIV infected. We present the concept of the elimination threshold and investigate under what conditions of treatment uptake and dropout elimination of HIV is feasible. We used a deterministic model incorporating an accurate description of disease progression and variable infectivity. We derived explicit expressions for the basic reproduction number and the elimination threshold. Using estimates of exponential growth rates of HIV during the initial phase of epidemics, we investigated for which populations elimination is within reach. The concept of the elimination threshold allows an assessment of the prospects of elimination of HIV from information in the early phase of the epidemic. The relative elimination threshold quantifies prospects of elimination independently of the details of the transmission dynamics. Elimination of HIV by test-and-treat is only feasible for populations with very low reproduction numbers or if the reproduction number is lowered significantly as a result of additional interventions. Allowing low infectiousness during primary infection, the likelihood of elimination becomes somewhat higher. The elimination threshold is a powerful tool for assessing prospects of elimination from available data on epidemic growth rates of HIV. Empirical estimates of the epidemic growth rate from phylogenetic studies were used to assess the potential for elimination in specific populations.

Reconstructing the timing and dispersion routes of HIV-1 subtype B epidemics in the Caribbean and Central America: a phylogenetic story

The Caribbean and Central America are among the regions with highest HIV-1B prevalence worldwide. Despite of this high virus burden, little is known about the timing and the migration patterns of HIV-1B in these regions. Migration is one of the major processes shaping the genetic structure of virus populations. Thus, reconstruction of epidemiological network may contribute to understand HIV-1B evolution and reduce virus prevalence. We have investigated the spatio-temporal dynamics of the HIV-1B epidemic in The Caribbean and Central America using 1,610 HIV-1B partial pol sequences from 13 Caribbean and 5 Central American countries. Timing of HIV-1B introduction and virus evolutionary rates, as well as the spatial genetic structure of the HIV-1B populations and the virus migration patterns were inferred. Results revealed that in The Caribbean and Central America most of the HIV-1B variability was generated since the 80 s. At odds with previous data suggesting that Haiti was the origin of the epidemic in The Caribbean, our reconstruction indicated that the virus could have been disseminated from Puerto Rico and Antigua. These two countries connected two distinguishable migration areas corresponding to the (mainly Spanish-colonized) Easter and (mainly British-colonized) Western islands, which indicates that virus migration patterns are determined by geographical barriers and by the movement of human populations among culturally related countries. Similar factors shaped the migration of HIV-1B in Central America. The HIV-1B population was significantly structured according to the country of origin, and the genetic diversity in each country was associated with the virus prevalence in both regions, which suggests that virus populations evolve mainly through genetic drift. Thus, our work contributes to the understanding of HIV-1B evolution and dispersion pattern in the Americas, and its relationship with the geography of the area and the movements of human populations.

HIV-1 Genetic Variability and Clinical Implications

Despite advances in antiretroviral therapy that have revolutionized HIV disease management, effective control of the HIV infection pandemic remains elusive. Beyond the classic non-B endemic areas, HIV-1 non-B subtype infections are sharply increasing in previous subtype B homogeneous areas such as Europe and North America. As already known, several studies have shown that, among non-B subtypes, subtypes C and D were found to be more aggressive in terms of disease progression. Luckily, the response to antiretrovirals against HIV-1 seems to be similar among different subtypes, but these results are mainly based on small or poorly designed studies. On the other hand, differences in rates of acquisition of resistance among non-B subtypes are already being observed. This different propensity, beyond the type of treatment regimens used, as well as access to viral load testing in non-B endemic areas seems to be due to HIV-1 clade specific peculiarities. Indeed, some non-B subtypes are proved to be more prone to develop resistance compared to B subtype. This phenomenon can be related to the presence of subtype-specific polymorphisms, different codon usage, and/or subtype-specific RNA templates. This review aims to provide a complete picture of HIV-1 genetic diversity and its implications for HIV-1 disease spread, effectiveness of therapies, and drug resistance development.

Cultural adaptation of a survey to assess medical providers' knowledge of and attitudes towards HIV/AIDS in Albania

Though the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Southeastern Europe is one of low reported prevalence, numerous studies have described the pervasiveness of medical providers’ lack of knowledge of HIV/AIDS in the Balkans. This study sought to culturally adapt an instrument to assess medical providers’ knowledge of and attitudes towards HIV/AIDS in Albania. Cultural adaptation was completed through development of a survey from previously validated instruments, translation of the survey into Albanian, blinded back translation, expert committee review of the draft instrument, focus group pre-testing with community- and University Hospital Center of Tirana-based physicians and nurses, and test-retest reliability testing. Blinded back translation of the instrument supported the initial translation with slight changes to the idiomatic and conceptual equivalences. Focus group pre-testing generally supported the instrument, yet some experiential and idiomatic changes were implemented. Based on unweighted kappa and/or prevalence adjusted bias adjusted kappa (PABAK), 20 of the 43 questions were deemed statistically significant at kappa and/or PABAK ≥0.5, while 12 others did not cross zero on the 95% confidence interval for kappa, indicating their probable significance. Subsequently, an instrument to assess medical providers’ knowledge of and attitudes toward HIV/AIDS for an Albanian population was developed which can be expanded within Albania and potentially to other countries within the Balkans, which have an Albanian-speaking population.

Detailed molecular epidemiologic characterization of HIV-1 infection in Bulgaria reveals broad diversity and evolving phylodynamics

Limited information is available to describe the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in Bulgaria. To better understand the genetic diversity and the epidemiologic dynamics of HIV-1 we analyzed 125 new polymerase (pol) sequences from Bulgarians diagnosed through 2009 and 77 pol sequences available from our previous study from persons infected prior to 2007. Epidemiologic and demographic information was obtained from each participant and phylogenetic analysis was used to infer HIV-1 evolutionary histories. 120 (59.5%) persons were infected with one of five different HIV-1 subtypes (A1, B, C, F1 and H) and 63 (31.2%) persons were infected with one of six different circulating recombinant forms (CRFs; 01_AE, 02_AG, 04_cpx, 05_DF, 14_BG, and 36_cpx). We also for the first time identified infection with two different clusters of unique A-like and F-like sub-subtype variants in 12 persons (5.9%) and seven unique recombinant forms (3.5%), including a novel J/C recombinant. While subtype B was the major genotype identified and was more prevalent in MSM and increased between 2000–2005, most non-B subtypes were present in persons ≥45 years old. CRF01_AE was the most common non-B subtype and was higher in women and IDUs relative to other risk groups combined. Our results show that HIV-1 infection in Bulgaria reflects the shifting distribution of genotypes coincident with the changing epidemiology of the HIV-1 epidemic among different risk groups. Our data support increased public health interventions targeting IDUs and MSM. Furthermore, the substantial and increasing HIV-1 genetic heterogeneity, combined with fluctuating infection dynamics, highlights the importance of sustained and expanded surveillance to prevent and control HIV-1 infection in Bulgaria.

Searching for virus phylotypes

Motivation: Large phylogenies are being built today to study virus evolution, trace the origin of epidemics, establish the mode of transmission and survey the appearance of drug resistance. However, no tool is available to quickly inspect these phylogenies and combine them with extrinsic traits (e.g. geographic location, risk group, presence of a given resistance mutation), seeking to extract strain groups of specific interest or requiring surveillance.

Results: We propose a new method for obtaining such groups, which we call phylotypes, from a phylogeny having taxa (strains) annotated with extrinsic traits. Phylotypes are subsets of taxa with close phylogenetic relationships and common trait values. The method combines ancestral trait reconstruction using parsimony, with combinatorial and numerical criteria measuring tree shape characteristics and the diversity and separation of the potential phylotypes. A shuffling procedure is used to assess the statistical significance of phylotypes. All algorithms have linear time complexity. This results in low computing times, typically a few minutes for the larger data sets with a number of shuffling steps. Two HIV-1 data sets are analyzed, one of which is large, containing >3000 strains of HIV-1 subtype C collected worldwide, where the method shows its ability to recover known clusters and transmission routes, and to detect new ones.

Availability: This method and companion tools are implemented in an interactive Web interface (www.phylotype.org), which provides a wide choice of graphical views and output formats, and allows for exploratory analyses of large data sets.

Contact:francois.chevenet@ird.fr, gascuel@lirmm.fr

Supplementary information:Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Phylogeographic reconstruction of HIV type 1B in Montenegro and the Balkan region

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is one of the most genetically variable human viruses as it is characterized by high rates of mutation, viral replication, and recombination. Phylodynamics is a powerful means of describing the behavior of an infection as a combination of evolutionary and ecological processes. Only a few studies of HIV-1 molecular epidemiology have so far been carried out in the Balkans. In this study, we used Bayesian methods to reconstruct the phylogeography and phylodynamics of HIV-1B in Montenegro and some other Balkan countries on the basis of pol gene sequences retrieved from a public database. The phylogenetic analysis showed that 43% of the isolates grouped in accordance with their geographic area, whereas the majority were interspersed in the tree, thus confirming the multiple introductions of HIV-1B in the Balkans. The Bayesian phylogeographic analysis suggested that HIV-1B entered the Balkans in the early 1970s probably through Greece and other Mediterranean tourist/travel destinations (such as Slovenia). Other Balkan countries, such as Bulgaria and Serbia, may have played an important role in spreading the infection to the entire Eastern Mediterranean area, and possibly to Northeast Europe. This suggests that the Balkans may have played a role as a "gateway" between Western and Eastern Europe.

The HIV Epidemic: High-Income Countries

The HIV epidemic in higher-income nations is driven by receptive anal intercourse, injection drug use through needle/syringe sharing, and, less efficiently, vaginal intercourse. Alcohol and noninjecting drug use increase sexual HIV vulnerability. Appropriate diagnostic screening has nearly eliminated blood/blood product-related transmissions and, with antiretroviral therapy, has reduced mother-to-child transmission radically. Affected subgroups have changed over time (e.g., increasing numbers of Black and minority ethnic men who have sex with men). Molecular phylogenetic approaches have established historical links between HIV strains from central Africa to those in the United States and thence to Europe. However, Europe did not just receive virus from the United States, as it was also imported from Africa directly. Initial introductions led to epidemics in different risk groups in Western Europe distinguished by viral clades/sequences, and likewise, more recent explosive epidemics linked to injection drug use in Eastern Europe are associated with specific strains. Recent developments in phylodynamic approaches have made it possible to obtain estimates of sequence evolution rates and network parameters for epidemics.

Phylodynamics of HIV-1 subtype F1 in Angola, Brazil and Romania

The HIV-1 subtype F1 is exceptionally prevalent in Angola, Brazil and Romania. The epidemiological context in which the spread of HIV occurred was highly variable from one country to another, mainly due to the existence of a long-term civil war in Angola and the contamination of a large number of children in Romania. Here we apply phylogenetic and Bayesian coalescent-based methods to reconstruct the phylodynamic patterns of HIV-1 subtype F1 in such different epidemiological settings. The phylogenetic analyses of HIV-1 subtype F1 pol sequences sampled worldwide confirmed that most sequences from Angola, Brazil and Romania segregated in country-specific monophyletic groups, while most subtype F1 sequences from Romanian children branched as a monophyletic sub-cluster (Romania-CH) nested within sequences from adults. The inferred time of the most recent common ancestor of the different subtype F1 clades were as follow: Angola=1983 (1978-1989), Brazil=1977 (1972-1981), Romania adults=1980 (1973-1987), and Romania-CH=1985 (1978-1989). All subtype F1 clades showed a demographic history best explained by a model of logistic population growth. Although the expansion phase of subtype F1 epidemic in Angola (mid 1980s to early 2000s) overlaps with the civil war period (1975-2002), the mean estimated growth rate of the Angolan F1 clade (0.49 year(-1)) was not exceptionally high, but quite similar to that estimated for the Brazilian (0.69 year(-1)) and Romanian adult (0.36 year(-1)) subtype F1 clades. The Romania-CH subtype F1 lineage, by contrast, displayed a short and explosive dissemination phase, with a median growth rate (2.47 year(-1)) much higher than that estimated for adult populations. This result supports the idea that the AIDS epidemic that affected the Romanian children was mainly caused by the spread of the HIV through highly efficient parenteral transmission networks, unlike adult populations where HIV is predominantly transmitted through sexual route.

Molecular typing of the recently expanding subtype B HIV-1 epidemic in Romania: evidence for local spread among MSMs in Bucharest area

HIV-1 subtype B is predominant in Europe except in some countries from Eastern Europe which are characterized by a high prevalence of non-B subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs). Romania is a particular case: the HIV-1 epidemic started with subtype F1 which is still the most prevalent. Previous studies have shown an increasing prevalence of subtype B which is the second most frequent one among the newly diagnosed individuals, followed by subtype C and several CRFs as well as unique recombinant forms (URFs). Our objective was to analyze in detail the characteristics (way of dispersal, association with transmission risk groups) of the subtype B infections in Romania by means of phylogenetic analysis. Among all the individuals sampled during 2003-2010, 71 out of 1127 patients (6.3%) have been identified to be infected with subtype B strains. The most frequent route of infection identified in HIV-1 subtype B patients in Romania was MSM transmission (39.6%), followed by the heterosexual route (35.2%). Many of the patients acquired the infection abroad, mainly in Western European countries. Phylogenetic analysis indicated the existence of a local transmission network (monophyletic clade) including 14 patients, mainly MSM living in the Bucharest area. We estimate the origin of the local transmission network that dates at the beginning of the 90s; the introduction of the F1 and C subtypes occurred earlier. The rest of the sequences were intermixed with reference strains sampled across Europe suggesting that single infection were not followed by subsequent dispersal within the local population. Although HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Romania is recent, there is evidence for local spread among the MSMs, in addition to multiple introductions.

Levels of self-reported depression and anxiety among HIV-positive patients in Albania: a cross-sectional study

Aim

To gain an initial perspective of mental health issues facing the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-positive population at the University Hospital Center of Tirana (UHCT) HIV/AIDS Ambulatory Clinic.

Methods

From June-August 2009, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 79 patients (93% response rate) at the UHCT HIV/AIDS Ambulatory Clinic. The interviews assessed patient-reported histories of mental health diagnoses, patients’ demographics, and current emotional health status.

Results

The percentage of patients who reported a history of diagnosis of depression or anxiety was high – 62.3% and 82.3%, respectively. Factors associated with a history of depression included having been diagnosed with anxiety (P < 0.001), having a higher number of barriers to care (P < 0.001), having a higher number of current medical and social needs (P < 0.001), or having not obtained antiretroviral therapy (ART) abroad (P = 0.004). Factors associated with a history of anxiety included having been on first-line ART (P = 0.008), having been diagnosed with HIV for shorter periods of time (P = 0.043), having been diagnosed with depression (P < 0.001), having a higher number of current medical and social needs (P = 0.035), or having not obtained ART abroad (P = 0.003).

Conclusions

Mental health problems are widespread among the known HIV-positive patient population in Albania. The high prevalences of anxiety and depression and of dual diagnoses of these conditions suggest the need for more mental health care for HIV-positive patients in Albania.

The evolution of HIV: inferences using phylogenetics

Molecular phylogenetics has revolutionized the study of not only evolution but also disparate fields such as genomics, bioinformatics, epidemiology, ecology, microbiology, molecular biology and biochemistry. Particularly significant are its achievements in population genetics as a result of the development of coalescent theory, which have contributed to more accurate model-based parameter estimation and explicit hypothesis testing. The study of the evolution of many microorganisms, and HIV in particular, have benefited from these new methodologies. HIV is well suited for such sophisticated population analyses because of its large population sizes, short generation times, high substitution rates and relatively small genomes. All these factors make HIV an ideal and fascinating model to study molecular evolution in real time. Here we review the significant advances made in HIV evolution through the application of phylogenetic approaches. We first examine the relative roles of mutation and recombination on the molecular evolution of HIV and its adaptive response to drug therapy and tissue allocation. We then review some of the fundamental questions in HIV evolution in relation to its origin and diversification and describe some of the insights gained using phylogenies. Finally, we show how phylogenetic analysis has advanced our knowledge of HIV dynamics (i.e., phylodynamics).

The origin and diversity of the HIV-1 pandemic

This review examines the enormous progress that has been made in the past decade in understanding the origin of HIV, HIV genetic variability, and the impact of global HIV diversity on the pandemic. Multiple zoonotic transmissions of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) have resulted in different HIV lineages in humans. In addition, the high mutation and recombination rates during viral replication result in a great genetic variability of HIV within individuals, as well as within populations, upon which evolutionary selection pressures act. The global HIV pandemic is examined in the context of HIV evolution, and the global diversity of HIV subtypes and recombinants is discussed in detail. Finally, the impact of HIV diversity on pathogenesis, transmission, diagnosis, treatment, the immune response, and vaccine development is reviewed.

Spatial and temporal reconstruction of bovine viral diarrhea virus genotype 1 dispersion in Italy

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is a widespread and economically important pathogen of cattle; genetic typing of BVDV isolates distinguished two species, namely BVDV-1 and BVDV-2. BVDV-1 is the most widespread worldwide and it includes at least 11 subtypes. With the aim of clarifying the routes of circulation of BVDV-1 subtypes in an endemic area and in order to investigate the relationships between the genetic diversity of BVDV and its geographic distribution, a phylogenetic analysis of 5' untranslated region of Italian sequences was performed using a new Bayesian framework allowing the spatial-temporal reconstruction of the evolutionary dynamics of highly variable viruses. Our analyses suggested that different BVDV subtypes entered the North-Eastern part of Italy at different times within a time span between 23 and 7 years ago. The largest virus dispersion occurred between the mid 1990s and the early 2000s. A possible gravity-like dynamic of the infection, originating in larger animal population then following patterns of national commercial-flow, should be hypothesized.

Phylogenetic and epidemic modeling of rapidly evolving infectious diseases

Epidemic modeling of infectious diseases has a long history in both theoretical and empirical research. However the recent explosion of genetic data has revealed the rapid rate of evolution that many populations of infectious agents undergo and has underscored the need to consider both evolutionary and ecological processes on the same time scale. Mathematical epidemiology has applied dynamical models to study infectious epidemics, but these models have tended not to exploit--or take into account--evolutionary changes and their effect on the ecological processes and population dynamics of the infectious agent. On the other hand, statistical phylogenetics has increasingly been applied to the study of infectious agents. This approach is based on phylogenetics, molecular clocks, genealogy-based population genetics and phylogeography. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo and related computational tools have been the primary source of advances in these statistical phylogenetic approaches. Recently the first tentative steps have been taken to reconcile these two theoretical approaches. We survey the Bayesian phylogenetic approach to epidemic modeling of infection diseases and describe the contrasts it provides to mathematical epidemiology as well as emphasize the significance of the future unification of these two fields.

Reconstruction of the epidemic history of hepatitis B virus genotype D in Albania

Despite a recent decrease in the prevalence of HBsAg in the general population, Albania is still highly endemic for HBV infection. Genotype D is the most prevalent HBV strain in the Mediterranean area. We studied the prevalence and distribution of HBV genotypes and subgenotypes in a total of 73 HBsAg-positive patients living in Albania, and reconstructed the epidemiological history of the most prevalent HBV D subgenotype using a "phylodynamic" framework. A time-scaled genealogy of the Albanian patients' and reference P gene sequences with known sampling dates was reconstructed using an MCMC Bayesian approach that allows population growth to be estimated on the basis of coalescent theory. All of the Albanian subjects were infected with the HBV D genotype, and a percentage varying from 44.4% to 100% (depending on the ethnic or risk group) were infected with subgenotype D2, the most prevalent in the study population (72.4%). The other subgenotypes present in a minority of subjects were D1 (13.8%) and D3 (13.8%). The Bayesian skyline plot population dynamics analysis showed that genotype D2 entered the Albanian population in the late 1960s, and that the effective number of infections grew gradually until the second half of the 1980s and more rapidly until the mid-1990s, when it reached a plateau that still persists today. Our data suggest that political and socio-economic factors played an important role in determining the rapid spread of HBV infection in Albania.

The Use of Bioinformatics for Studying HIV Evolutionary and Epidemiological History in South America

The South American human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemic is driven by several subtypes (B, C, and F1) and circulating and unique recombinant forms derived from those subtypes. Those variants are heterogeneously distributed around the continent in a country-specific manner. Despite some inconsistencies mainly derived from sampling biases and analytical constrains, most of studies carried out in the area agreed in pointing out specificities in the evolutionary dynamics of the circulating HIV-1 lineages. In this paper, we covered the theoretical basis, and the application of bioinformatics methods to reconstruct the HIV spatial-temporal dynamics, unveiling relevant information to understand the origin, geographical dissemination and the current molecular scenario of the HIV epidemic in the continent, particularly in the countries of Southern Cone.

Identification of a current hot spot of HIV type 1 transmission in Mongolia by molecular epidemiological analysis

We investigated the current molecular epidemiological status of HIV-1 in Mongolia, a country with very low incidence of HIV-1 though with rapid expansion in recent years. HIV-1 pol (1065 nt) and env (447 nt) genes were sequenced to construct phylogenetic trees. The evolutionary rates, molecular clock phylogenies, and other evolutionary parameters were estimated from heterochronous genomic sequences of HIV-1 subtype B by the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We obtained 41 sera from 56 reported HIV-1-positive cases as of May 2009. The main route of infection was men who have sex with men (MSM). Dominant subtypes were subtype B in 32 cases (78%) followed by subtype CRF02_AG (9.8%). The phylogenetic analysis of the pol gene identified two clusters in subtype B sequences. Cluster 1 consisted of 21 cases including MSM and other routes of infection, and cluster 2 consisted of eight MSM cases. The tree analyses demonstrated very short branch lengths in cluster 1, suggesting a surprisingly active expansion of HIV-1 transmission during a short period with the same ancestor virus. Evolutionary analysis indicated that the outbreak started around the early 2000s. This study identified a current hot spot of HIV-1 transmission and potential seed of the epidemic in Mongolia. Comprehensive preventive measures targeting this group are urgently needed.

The emerging HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in southeastern Europe

Patterns of HIV transmission in the seven countries of southeastern Europe (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia) indicate that men who have sex with men (MSM) bear the highest burden of HIV. In 2008, MSM represented 56% of all HIV cases reported in Serbia, and 71 and 76% in Slovenia and Croatia, respectively. In other countries the number of reported HIV cases attributed to MSM remains low, which is likely due to under reporting. HIV prevalence measured in surveys was the highest among MSM compared with other at-risk groups, ranging from 0.7% in Bosnia and Herzegovina to 6.1% in Serbia. Data on sexual behaviors and HIV testing uptake indicate an urgent need to increase coverage with prevention services.

Genetic characteristics, coreceptor usage potential and evolution of Nigerian HIV-1 subtype G and CRF02_AG isolates

HIV-1 CRF02_AG and subtype G (HIV-1G) account for most HIV infections in Nigeria, but their evolutionary trends have not been well documented. To better elucidate the dynamics of the epidemic in Nigeria we characterised the gag and env genes of North-Central Nigerian HIV-1 isolates from pregnant women. Of 28 samples sequenced in both genes, the predominant clades were CRF02_AG (39%) and HIV-1G (32%). Higher predicted proportion of CXCR4-tropic (X4) HIV-1G isolates was noted compared to CRF02_AG (p = 0.007, Fisher's exact test). Phylogenetic and Bayesian analysis conducted on our sequences and all the dated available Nigerian sequences on the Los Alamos data base showed that CRF02_AG and HIV-1G entered into Nigeria through multiple entries, with presence of HIV-1G dating back to early 1980s. This study underlines the genetic complexity of the HIV-1 epidemic in Nigeria, possible subtype-specific differences in co-receptor usage, and the evolutionary trends of the predominant HIV-1 strains in Nigeria, which may have implications for the design of biomedical interventions and better understanding of the epidemic.

Viral sequence analysis from HIV-infected mothers and infants: molecular evolution, diversity, and risk factors for mother-to-child transmission

Great progress has been made in understanding the pathogenesis, treatment, and transmission of HIV and the factors influencing the risk of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). Many questions regarding the molecular evolution and genetic diversity of HIV in the context of MTCT remain unanswered. Further research to identify the selective factors governing which variants are transmitted, how the compartmentalization of HIV in different cells and tissues contributes to transmission, and the influence of host immunity, viral diversity, and recombination on MTCT may provide insight into new prevention strategies and the development of an effective HIV vaccine.

Viral phylodynamics and the search for an 'effective number of infections'

Information on the dynamics of the effective population size over time can be obtained from the analysis of phylogenies, through the application of time-varying coalescent models. This approach has been used to study the dynamics of many different viruses, and has demonstrated a wide variety of patterns, which have been interpreted in the context of changes over time in the ‘effective number of infections’, a quantity proportional to the number of infected individuals. However, for infectious diseases, the rate of coalescence is driven primarily by new transmissions i.e. the incidence, and only indirectly by the number of infected individuals through sampling effects. Using commonly used epidemiological models, we show that the coalescence rate may indeed reflect the number of infected individuals during the initial phase of exponential growth when time is scaled by infectivity, but in general, a single change in time scale cannot be used to estimate the number of infected individuals. This has important implications when integrating phylogenetic data in the context of other epidemiological data.

Phylodynamics of HIV-1 circulating recombinant forms 12_BF and 38_BF in Argentina and Uruguay

Background

Although HIV-1 CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF are two epidemiologically important recombinant lineages circulating in Argentina and Uruguay, little is known about their population dynamics.

Methods

A total of 120 "CRF12_BF-like" and 20 "CRF38_BF-like" pol recombinant sequences collected in Argentina and Uruguay from 1997 to 2009 were subjected to phylogenetic and Bayesian coalescent-based analyses to estimate evolutionary and demographic parameters.

Results

Phylogenetic analyses revealed that CRF12_BF viruses from Argentina and Uruguay constitute a single epidemic with multiple genetic exchanges among countries; whereas circulation of the CRF38_BF seems to be confined to Uruguay. The mean estimated substitution rate of CRF12_BF at pol gene (2.5 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year) was similar to that previously described for subtype B. According to our estimates, CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF originated at 1983 (1978-1988) and 1986 (1981-1990), respectively. After their emergence, the CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF epidemics seem to have experienced a period of rapid expansion with initial growth rates of around 1.2 year^-1 and 0.9 year^-1, respectively. Later, the rate of spread of these CRFs_BF seems to have slowed down since the mid-1990s.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF viruses were generated during the 1980s, shortly after the estimated introduction of subtype F1 in South America (~1975-1980). After an initial phase of fast exponential expansion, the rate of spread of both CRFs_BF epidemics seems to have slowed down, thereby following a demographic pattern that resembles those previously reported for the HIV-1 epidemics in Brazil, USA, and Western Europe.

Evolution and molecular epidemiology of subtype C HIV-1 in Zimbabwe

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the origins and evolutionary history of subtype C HIV-1 in Zimbabwe in a context of regional conflict and migration.

DESIGN

HIV-1C pol sequence datasets were generated from four sequential cohorts of antenatal women in Harare, Zimbabwe sampled over 15 years (1991-2006).

METHODS

One hundred and seventy-seven HIV-1C pol sequences were obtained from four successive cohorts in Zimbabwe. Maximum-likelihood methods were used to explore phylogenetic relationships between Zimbabwean HIV-1C sequences and subtype C strains from other regions. A Bayesian coalescent-based framework was used to estimate evolutionary parameters for HIV-1C in Zimbabwe, including origin and demographic growth patterns.

RESULTS

Zimbabwe HIV-1C pol demonstrated increasing sequence divergence over the 15-year period. Nearly all Zimbabwe sequences clustered phylogenetically with subtype C strains from neighboring countries. Bayesian evolutionary analysis indicated a most recent common ancestor date of 1973 with three epidemic growth phases: an initial, slow phase (1970s) followed by exponential growth (1980s), and a linearly expanding epidemic to the present. Bayesian trees provided evidence for multiple HIV-1C introductions into Zimbabwe during 1979-1981, corresponding with Zimbabwean national independence following a period of socio-political instability.

CONCLUSION

The Zimbabwean HIV-1C epidemic likely originated from multiple introductions in the late 1970s and grew exponentially during the 1980s, corresponding to changing political boundaries and rapid population influx from neighboring countries. The timing and phylogenetic clustering of the Zimbabwean sequences is consistent with an origin in southern Africa and subsequent expansion. HIV-1 sequence data contain important epidemiological information, which can help focus treatment and prevention strategies in light of more recent political volatility in Zimbabwe.

Short communication: Evidences of recent decline in the expansion rate of the HIV type 1 subtype C and CRF31_BC epidemics in southern Brazil

The HIV-1 epidemic in southern Brazil is characterized by the high prevalence of subtype C and CRF31_BC infections but little is known about the population dynamics of these strains over time. We used a total of 82 env and 72 pol HIV-1 subtype C sequences collected from 1991 to 2006 and 47 pol CRF31_BC sequences collected from 1998 to 2006 from Brazilian patients to reconstruct the demographic history of these HIV-1 strains. Estimations of demographic history were performed using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo coalescent-based approach as implemented in the BEAST program. Our analyses indicate that subtype C and CRF31_BC epidemics experienced an initial period of fast exponential spread in the southern Brazilian population during the 1980s and early 1990s, but the spreading rate of these epidemics seems to have slowed down since the middle 1990s. The initial mean exponential growth rate of the subtype C epidemic was estimated to be around 0.70-0.90/year, whereas the estimated population growth rate of CRF31_BC was 1.3/year, more than two times higher than that previously described for this CRF. These results suggest for the first time that the growth rate of subtype C and CRF31_BC epidemics has been changing over time in southern Brazil with evidence for a deceleration in recent years. During the expansion phase, the CRF31_BC seems to have spread at a rate much higher than Brazilian parental subtypes B and C.

Towards an understanding of the migration of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a lethal disease caused by Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV). It is one of the most widespread medically significant tick-borne pathogens, with a distribution that coincides well with the geographical occurrence of its tick vector, Hyalomma marginatum marginatum. Sporadic outbreaks of CCHF have previously been recognized in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Europe but, in the 21st century, outbreaks have become more frequent in former Yugoslavia, Turkey and Iran. It has been suggested that CCHFV is a migrating pathogen, but it is not clear to what extent. We have, for the first time, analysed the worldwide migration pattern of CCHFV. Our results showed that Turkey may be a donor in Europe, towards both the east and the west, while the United Arab Emirates acted as a donor in the Middle East, and China was found to be the origin for genotype 2. Finally, we showed that migration of CCHFV was unrestricted between Iran and Pakistan. Considering the distribution and coincidence of the tick vector with CCHFV and CCHF, and the fact that the tick vector is present in western Europe, future outbreaks may extend to include hitherto-naïve areas, suggesting that increased surveillance and geographical mapping of this lethal pathogen are needed.