Predictive modeling of coral disease distribution within a reef system

Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk: A new product for early warning and management

Ecological forecasts are becoming increasingly valuable tools for conservation and management. However, there are few examples of near-real-time forecasting systems that account for the wide range of ecological complexities. We developed a new coral disease ecological forecasting system that explores a suite of ecological relationships and their uncertainty and investigates how forecast skill changes with shorter lead times. The Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk product introduced here uses a combination of ecological and marine environmental conditions to predict the risk of white syndromes and growth anomalies across reefs in the central and western Pacific and along the east coast of Australia and is available through the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch program. This product produces weekly forecasts for a moving window of 6 months at a resolution of ~5 km based on quantile regression forests. The forecasts show superior skill at predicting disease risk on withheld survey data from 2012 to 2020 compared with predecessor forecast systems, with the biggest improvements shown for predicting disease risk at mid- to high-disease levels. Most of the prediction uncertainty arises from model uncertainty, so prediction accuracy and precision do not improve substantially with shorter lead times. This result arises because many predictor variables cannot be accurately forecasted, which is a common challenge across ecosystems. Weekly forecasts and scenarios can be explored through an online decision support tool and data explorer, co-developed with end-user groups to improve use and understanding of ecological forecasts. The models provide near-real-time disease risk assessments and allow users to refine predictions and assess intervention scenarios. This work advances the field of ecological forecasting with real-world complexities and, in doing so, better supports near-term decision making for coral reef ecosystem managers and stakeholders. Secondarily, we identify clear needs and provide recommendations to further enhance our ability to forecast coral disease risk.

The Mystery of Cancer Resistance: A Revelation Within Nature

Cancer, a disease due to uncontrolled cell proliferation is as ancient as multicellular organisms. A 255-million-years-old fossilized forerunner mammal gorgonopsian is probably the oldest evidence of cancer, to date. Cancer seems to have evolved by adapting to the microenvironment occupied by immune sentinel, modulating the cellular behavior from cytotoxic to regulatory, acquiring resistance to chemotherapy and surviving hypoxia. The interaction of genes with environmental carcinogens is central to cancer onset, seen as a spectrum of cancer susceptibility among human population. Cancer occurs in life forms other than human also, although their exposure to environmental carcinogens can be different. Role of genetic etiology in cancer in multiple species can be interesting with regard to not only cancer susceptibility, but also genetic conservation and adaptation in speciation. The widely used model organisms for cancer research are mouse and rat which are short-lived and reproduce rapidly. Research in these cancer prone animal models has been valuable as these have led to cancer therapy. However, another rewarding area of cancer research can be the cancer-resistant animal species. The Peto's paradox and G-value paradox are evident when natural cancer resistance is observed in large mammals, like elephant and whale, small rodents viz. Naked Mole Rat and Blind Mole Rat, and Bat. The cancer resistance remains to be explored in other small or large and long-living animals like giraffe, camel, rhinoceros, water buffalo, Indian bison, Shire horse, polar bear, manatee, elephant seal, walrus, hippopotamus, turtle and tortoise, sloth, and squirrel. Indeed, understanding the molecular mechanisms of avoiding neoplastic transformation across various life forms can be potentially having translational value for human cancer management. Adapted and Modified from (Hanahan and Weinberg 2011).

Patterns and Drivers of Rodent Abundance across a South African Multi-Use Landscape

Simple Summary

Wildlife ecological patterns are driven not only by environmental and biological contexts, but also by landscape-management schemes that shape those contexts. The present study aims to determine the effect of different environmental factors (including management schemes) on the occurrence patterns of a southern African small mammal community. Based on a landscape where three land-use contexts that differ in their levels of human presence and/or where activities coexist (private ecotourism reserve, mixed farms and traditional communal areas), and by using a body-size-based approach (i.e., using two size-based rodent groups—medium and small—as models), we found that the mean relative abundance of medium-sized species did not differ across the management contexts, but small species’ mean relative abundance was higher in the game reserve. The overall variation in rodent abundance was negatively affected by ungulate presence (possibly linked to a decrease in food availability) and by human presence (increased disturbance). Rodent abundance seems to be influenced by environmental gradients that are directly linked to varying management priorities across land uses, meaning that these communities might not benefit uniformly by the increased amount of habitat promoted by the commercial wildlife industry.

Abstract

South Africa’s decentralized approach to conservation entails that wildlife outside formally protected areas inhabit complex multi-use landscapes, where private wildlife business (ecotourism and/or hunting) co-exist in a human-dominated landscape matrix. Under decentralized conservation, wildlife is perceived to benefit from increased amount of available habitat, however it is crucial to understand how distinct management priorities and associated landscape modifications impact noncharismatic taxa, such as small mammals. We conducted extensive ink-tracking-tunnel surveys to estimate heterogeneity in rodent distribution and investigate the effect of different environmental factors on abundance patterns of two size-based rodent groups (small- and medium-sized species), across three adjacent management contexts in NE KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: a private ecotourism game reserve, mixed farms and traditional communal areas (consisting of small clusters of houses interspersed with grazing areas and seminatural vegetation). Our hypotheses were formulated regarding the (1) area typology, (2) vegetation structure, (3) ungulate pressure and (4) human disturbance. Using a boosted-regression-tree approach, we found considerable differences between rodent groups’ abundance and distribution, and the underlying environmental factors. The mean relative abundance of medium-sized species did not differ across the three management contexts, but small species mean relative abundance was higher in the game reserves, confirming an influence of the area typology on their abundance. Variation in rodent relative abundance was negatively correlated with human disturbance and ungulate presence. Rodent abundance seems to be influenced by environmental gradients that are directly linked to varying management priorities across land uses, meaning that these communities might not benefit uniformly by the increased amount of habitat promoted by the commercial wildlife industry.

Deciphering Coral Disease Dynamics: Integrating Host, Microbiome, and the Changing Environment

Diseases of tropical reef organisms is an intensive area of study, but despite significant advances in methodology and the global knowledge base, identifying the proximate causes of disease outbreaks remains difficult. The dynamics of infectious wildlife diseases are known to be influenced by shifting interactions among the host, pathogen, and other members of the microbiome, and a collective body of work clearly demonstrates that this is also the case for the main foundation species on reefs, corals. Yet, among wildlife, outbreaks of coral diseases stand out as being driven largely by a changing environment. These outbreaks contributed not only to significant losses of coral species but also to whole ecosystem regime shifts. Here we suggest that to better decipher the disease dynamics of corals, we must integrate more holistic and modern paradigms that consider multiple and variable interactions among the three major players in epizootics: the host, its associated microbiome, and the environment. In this perspective, we discuss how expanding the pathogen component of the classic host-pathogen-environment disease triad to incorporate shifts in the microbiome leading to dysbiosis provides a better model for understanding coral disease dynamics. We outline and discuss issues arising when evaluating each component of this trio and make suggestions for bridging gaps between them. We further suggest that to best tackle these challenges, researchers must adjust standard paradigms, like the classic one pathogen-one disease model, that, to date, have been ineffectual at uncovering many of the emergent properties of coral reef disease dynamics. Lastly, we make recommendations for ways forward in the fields of marine disease ecology and the future of coral reef conservation and restoration given these observations.

Energy depletion and opportunistic microbial colonisation in white syndrome lesions from corals across the Indo-Pacific

Corals are dependent upon lipids as energy reserves to mount a metabolic response to biotic and abiotic challenges. This study profiled lipids, fatty acids, and microbial communities of healthy and white syndrome (WS) diseased colonies of Acropora hyacinthus sampled from reefs in Western Australia, the Great Barrier Reef, and Palmyra Atoll. Total lipid levels varied significantly among locations, though a consistent stepwise decrease from healthy tissues from healthy colonies (HH) to healthy tissue on WS-diseased colonies (HD; i.e. preceding the lesion boundary) to diseased tissue on diseased colonies (DD; i.e. lesion front) was observed, demonstrating a reduction in energy reserves. Lipids in HH tissues were comprised of high energy lipid classes, while HD and DD tissues contained greater proportions of structural lipids. Bacterial profiling through 16S rRNA gene sequencing and histology showed no bacterial taxa linked to WS causation. However, the relative abundance of Rhodobacteraceae-affiliated sequences increased in DD tissues, suggesting opportunistic proliferation of these taxa. While the cause of WS remains inconclusive, this study demonstrates that the lipid profiles of HD tissues was more similar to DD tissues than to HH tissues, reflecting a colony-wide systemic effect and provides insight into the metabolic immune response of WS-infected Indo-Pacific corals.

Spatially and Temporally Explicit Life Cycle Environmental Impacts of Soybean Production in the U.S. Midwest

Understanding spatially and temporally explicit life cycle environmental impacts is critical for designing sustainable supply chains for biofuel and animal sectors. However, annual life cycle environmental impacts of crop production at county scale across mutiple years are lacking. To address this knowledge gap, this study used a combination of Environmental Policy Integrated Climate and process-based life cycle assessment models to quantify life cycle global warming (GWP), eutrophication (EU) and acidification (AD) impacts of soybean production in nearly 1000 Midwest counties yr-1 over 9 years. Sequentially, a machine learning approach was applied to identify the top influential factors among soil, climate, and farming practices, which drive the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of life cycle environmental impacts. The results indicated that significant variations existed in life cycle GWP, EU, and AD among counties and across years. Life cycle GWP impacts ranged from -11.4 to 22.0 kg CO2-eq kg soybean-1, whereas life cycle EU and AD impacts varied by factors of 302 and 44, respectively. Nitrogen application rates, temperature in March and soil texture were the top influencing factors for life cycle GWP impacts. In contrast, soil organic content and nitrogen application rate were the top influencing factors for life cycle EU and AD impacts.

Case-control design identifies ecological drivers of endemic coral diseases

Endemic disease transmission is an important ecological process that is challenging to study because of low occurrence rates. Here, we investigate the ecological drivers of two coral diseases-growth anomalies and tissue loss-affecting five coral species. We first show that a statistical framework called the case-control study design, commonly used in epidemiology but rarely applied to ecology, provided high predictive accuracy (67-82%) and disease detection rates (60-83%) compared with a traditional statistical approach that yielded high accuracy (98-100%) but low disease detection rates (0-17%). Using this framework, we found evidence that 1) larger corals have higher disease risk; 2) shallow reefs with low herbivorous fish abundance, limited water motion, and located adjacent to watersheds with high fertilizer and pesticide runoff promote low levels of growth anomalies, a chronic coral disease; and 3) wave exposure, stream exposure, depth, and low thermal stress are associated with tissue loss disease risk during interepidemic periods. Variation in risk factors across host-disease pairs suggests that either different pathogens cause the same gross lesions in different species or that the same disease may arise in different species under different ecological conditions.

History of perspectives on the study of coral disease in the eastern tropical Pacific

Disease in coral species is one factor associated with the current degradation process of tropical reefs. The history of research on coral pathologies dates to 1970 with the first reports of diseases in the Greater Caribbean and Indo-Pacific regions, although some anecdotal observations were made earlier. Today, there is information on the health conditions of >200 coral species in 70 countries. The special natural conditions under which reefs develop in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) and the predominance of a single coral genus, Pocillopora (a host highly susceptible to disease), leave them vulnerable to health impairments and the loss of viability, structure and function in the wider ecosystem. Therefore, coral reefs in the ETP are ideal systems for studies of biodiversity and survivorship. To clarify the status of knowledge on coral diseases in the ETP, we reviewed scientific studies conducted there from 1970-2018, comparing 127 publications to literature on other reef regions in the Pacific. Despite the vulnerability of reefs in the ETP, only limited information exists describing and investigating the etiology of lesions and other signs of health deterioration in corals, and there are few baseline studies of coral reefs or analyses of the spatial and temporal dynamics of disease syndromes. In general, efforts to study coral diseases in the ETP are inadequate.

Factors Affecting the Dynamics of Frosty Pod Rot in the Main Cocoa Areas of Santander State, Colombia

Frosty pod rot (FPR) caused by Moniliophthora roreri is the primary disease affecting cacao production in the major producing countries of the Americas and is one of the major threats to cacao worldwide. The incidence of FPR on clones with different levels of resistance was investigated in four localities of Santander State, Colombia, between July 2013 and May 2015. Dynamics of diseased pods were modeled using boosted regression trees, a machine learning technique that allows regressions to be performed without prior statistical assumptions. The results suggested that FPR epidemics varied according to plot location, clone, weeks of observation, and total pods produced. Dynamics in the phenology of pods had an effect on the epidemics, and this dynamic could partially explain the difference in resistance among clones. Although not total, partial resistance of ICS 95 was confirmed. An important wilt effect was observed, particularly in the resistant clones; consequently, differences in harvested pods were not significant among clones. Pod stripping remains a good practice for the management of the disease and this practice could also have an effect on the pod dynamics and wilt phenomenon.

Coffee tree architecture and its interactions with microclimates drive the dynamics of coffee berry disease in coffee trees

Coffee berry disease (CBD), which is widespread in Africa, has been responsible for massive yield losses of Coffea arabica. In Cameroon, C. arabica is mainly planted in agroforestry systems on smallholder farms, where low incomes hinder the use of chemicals to manage the disease. Novel agroecological strategies for controlling CBD are expected to be implemented and even increase in the current context of global changes. In this study, we showed that coffee tree architecture and its interactions with microclimates were important to CBD cluster symptom appearance (CSA), with notable CSA increasing along the tree branch away from the trunk to the tip of the branch. As shade trees can modify microclimates, we further investigated scenarios of various microclimatic conditions under shade to explore the effects of agroforestry systems on CBD dynamics in coffee trees. We showed that shade could result in contrasting effects on disease dynamics, decreasing CSA along the branch and increasing epidemic duration. We suggest that the contrasting effects of shade on disease dynamics need further evaluation of the possible trade-offs among the variables at play, and we recommend a combination of epidemiological and architectural modelling to help design more cost-effective and environmentally friendly CBD management strategies.

Adding insult to injury: Ship groundings are associated with coral disease in a pristine reef

In 2013, the remote Tubbataha Reef UNESCO World Heritage Site, in the western Philippines, experienced two ship groundings within four months: the USS Guardian (USSG), a US military vessel, and the Min Ping Yu (MPY), an illegal Chinese fishing vessel. Here, we present the results of coral disease assessments completed two years post-grounding and recovery patterns monitored annually within these grounding sites. Site assessments were undertaken in three distinct zones: ‘ground zero’, where reef was scoured to its limestone base by direct ship impact; the ‘impact border’, containing surviving upright but damaged, abraded and fragmented colonies injured during ship movement; and undamaged ‘control’ sites, remote from the ship groundings but located on the same atoll. Coral diseases were dominated by white syndromes, and prevalence was an order of magnitude higher within the impact border zones than within the other zones two years after the events. Hard coral cover has steadily increased at a mean rate of 3% per year within the scoured USSG site at a rate comparable to control sites. In contrast, recovery has been negligible within the rubble-dominated MPY site, suggesting that substrate quality strongly influenced recovery processes such as recruitment, as larvae do not survive well on unstable substrates. Long-term recovery trajectories from these two grounding events appeared strongly influenced by movement of the ship during and after each event, and site-specific wave-influenced persistence of rubble and debris. High prevalence of coral disease among damaged but surviving colonies two years post-grounding suggested long-term impacts which may be slowing recovery and creating localized pockets of higher persistent disease prevalence than that of the surrounding population.

Influence of salinity and sedimentation on Vibrio infection of the Hawaiian coral Montipora capitata

Environmental cofactors alter host-pathogen interactions and influence disease dynamics by impairing host resistance and/or increasing pathogen virulence. Terrestrial runoff is recognized as a major threat to coral reef health. However, the direct links between runoff and coral disease are not clear. Montipora white syndrome (MWS) is a coral disease that occurs in the Hawaiian archipelago, can be caused by various bacterial pathogens, including Vibrio species, and is linked to conditions associated with heavy rainfall and runoff. The objective of this study was to determine whether a short-term hyposalinity stress (20 ppt for 24 h) or sedimentation stress (1000 g m-2 d-1) would influence bacterial infection of the coral Montipora capitata. Hyposalinity increased M. capitata susceptibility to infection by 2 MWS pathogens, Vibrio coralliilyticus strain OCN008 and Vibrio owensii strain OCN002. Specifically, hyposalinity allowed OCN008 to infect at lower doses (106 CFU ml-1 compared with 108 CFU ml-1) and reduced the amount of time before onset of OCN002 infection at high doses (108 CFU ml-1). In contrast, short-term sedimentation stress did not affect M. capitata infection by either of these 2 pathogens. Although several studies have found a correlation between runoff and increased coral disease prevalence in field studies, this is the first study to show that one aspect of runoff (reduced salinity) enhances bacterial infection of coral using manipulative experiments.

Mapping sites of reef vulnerability along lagoons of Lakshadweep archipelago, Indian Ocean

Tissue degradation and mediated mortality have turned into a major threat to coral reef systems around the world. Detailed knowledge on interactions of prime biological factors that mediate tissue loss and mortality is of paramount importance in understanding the prevailing reef health scenario and to trial management actions. In the present study, a series of benthic surveys were conducted in Lakshadweep islands to understand the interactions of plausible biological factors in causing tissue loss and mediated mortality. Interactions of biological scenarios were prioritized using hierarchical regression analysis. The hierarchical regression model analysis revealed black band disease (β = 0.59; p < 0.001) and algal interactions (β = 0.48; p < 0.001) as the major factors responsible for tissue-loss-mediated coral mortality in the region. The observations from the hierarchical analysis were used to derive vulnerability maps based on weighted overlay analysis. The vulnerability mapping revealed that lagoon of Kalpeni Island is very highly vulnerable to coral degradation with 683.5 ha followed by Kavaratti (70.2 ha), Bangaram (70 ha), and Amini (47 ha). Chethalath and Agatti lagoons were inferred as low vulnerable sites where coral reefs can sustain. The vulnerability maps derived can be used as a baseline observation to identify areas of very high vulnerability and specific stressor prevalent in those sites. This will be helpful in defining stressor and site-specific management plans.

Emerging coral diseases in Kāne'ohe Bay, O'ahu, Hawai'i (USA): two major disease outbreaks of acute Montipora white syndrome

In March 2010 and January 2012, we documented 2 widespread and severe coral disease outbreaks on reefs throughout Kāne'ohe Bay, Hawai'i (USA). The disease, acute Montipora white syndrome (aMWS), manifested as acute and progressive tissue loss on the common reef coral M. capitata. Rapid visual surveys in 2010 revealed 338 aMWS-affected M. capitata colonies with a disease abundance of (mean ± SE) 0.02 ± 0.01 affected colonies per m of reef surveyed. In 2012, disease abundance was significantly higher (1232 aMWS-affected colonies) with 0.06 ± 0.02 affected colonies m(-1). Prior surveys found few acute tissue loss lesions in M. capitata in Ka¯ne'ohe Bay; thus, the high number of infected colonies found during these outbreaks would classify this as an emerging disease. Disease abundance was highest in the semi-enclosed region of south Kāne'ohe Bay, which has a history of nutrient and sediment impacts from terrestrial runoff and stream discharge. In 2010, tagged colonies showed an average tissue loss of 24% after 1 mo, and 92% of the colonies continued to lose tissue in the subsequent month but at a slower rate (chronic tissue loss). The host-specific nature of this disease (affecting only M. capitata) and the apparent spread of lesions between M. capitata colonies in the field suggest a potential transmissible agent. The synchronous appearance of affected colonies on multiple reefs across Kāne'ohe Bay suggests a common underlying factor. Both outbreaks occurred during the colder, rainy winter months, and thus it is likely that some parameter(s) associated with winter environmental conditions are linked to the emergence of disease outbreaks on these reefs.

Satellite SST-Based Coral Disease Outbreak Predictions for the Hawaiian Archipelago

Predicting wildlife disease risk is essential for effective monitoring and management, especially for geographically expansive ecosystems such as coral reefs in the Hawaiian archipelago. Warming ocean temperature has increased coral disease outbreaks contributing to declines in coral cover worldwide. In this study we investigated seasonal effects of thermal stress on the prevalence of the three most widespread coral diseases in Hawai'i: Montipora white syndrome, Porites growth anomalies and Porites tissue loss syndrome. To predict outbreak likelihood we compared disease prevalence from surveys conducted between 2004 and 2015 from 18 Hawaiian Islands and atolls with biotic (e.g., coral density) and abiotic (satellite-derived sea surface temperature metrics) variables using boosted regression trees. To date, the only coral disease forecast models available were developed for Acropora white syndrome on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Given the complexities of disease etiology, differences in host demography and environmental conditions across reef regions, it is important to refine and adapt such models for different diseases and geographic regions of interest. Similar to the Acropora white syndrome models, anomalously warm conditions were important for predicting Montipora white syndrome, possibly due to a relationship between thermal stress and a compromised host immune system. However, coral density and winter conditions were the most important predictors of all three coral diseases in this study, enabling development of a forecasting system that can predict regions of elevated disease risk up to six months before an expected outbreak. Our research indicates satellite-derived systems for forecasting disease outbreaks can be appropriately adapted from the GBR tools and applied for a variety of diseases in a new region. These models can be used to enhance management capacity to prepare for and respond to emerging coral diseases throughout Hawai'i and can be modified for other diseases and regions around the world.

Modeling the Impact of White-Plague Coral Disease in Climate Change Scenarios

Coral reefs are in global decline, with coral diseases increasing both in prevalence and in space, a situation that is expected only to worsen as future thermal stressors increase. Through intense surveillance, we have collected a unique and highly resolved dataset from the coral reef of Eilat (Israel, Red Sea), that documents the spatiotemporal dynamics of a White Plague Disease (WPD) outbreak over the course of a full season. Based on modern statistical methodologies, we develop a novel spatial epidemiological model that uses a maximum-likelihood procedure to fit the data and assess the transmission pattern of WPD. We link the model to sea surface temperature (SST) and test the possible effect of increasing temperatures on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that the likelihood of a susceptible coral to become infected is governed both by SST and by its spatial location relative to nearby infected corals. The model shows that the magnitude of WPD epidemics strongly depends on demographic circumstances; under one extreme, when recruitment is free-space regulated and coral density remains relatively constant, even an increase of only 0.5°C in SST can cause epidemics to double in magnitude. In reality, however, the spatial nature of transmission can effectively protect the community, restricting the magnitude of annual epidemics. This is because the probability of susceptible corals to become infected is negatively associated with coral density. Based on our findings, we expect that infectious diseases having a significant spatial component, such as Red-Sea WPD, will never lead to a complete destruction of the coral community under increased thermal stress. However, this also implies that signs of recovery of local coral communities may be misleading; indicative more of spatial dynamics than true rehabilitation of these communities. In contrast to earlier generic models, our approach captures dynamics of WPD both in space and time, accounting for the highly seasonal nature of annual WPD outbreaks.

Coral reefs are deteriorating at alarming rates, with coral disease outbreaks increasing in prevalence and in space. Anomalously high ocean temperatures are thought to significantly contribute to this problem. We collected a unique and highly resolved dataset of a White Plague Disease (WPD) outbreak from the coral reef of Eilat (Israel, Red Sea). By fitting a novel epidemiological model to the data, we characterize the dynamics of WPD, and study the possible effects of future increasing sea-surface temperatures (SST) on disease dynamics. In contrast to earlier studies, our approach captures the dynamics of coral disease both in space and time, and accounts for the highly seasonal nature of the annual outbreaks. We also apply a novel combination of spatiotemporal statistics and null hypothesis approaches to study the disease progression. Model forecasts into the future show that for some scenarios even an increase of only 0.5°C in SST can cause epidemics to double in magnitude. Since the probability of infection is found to be negatively associated with coral density, this implies that the spatial nature of disease transmission can both enhance and restrict the magnitude of annual epidemics. The results have implications for designing management policies appropriate for coral reef conservation.

Silvicolous on a small scale: possibilities and limitations of habitat suitability models for small, elusive mammals in conservation management and landscape planning

Species distribution and endangerment can be assessed by habitat-suitability modelling. This study addresses methodical aspects of habitat suitability modelling and includes an application example in actual species conservation and landscape planning. Models using species presence-absence data are preferable to presence-only models. In contrast to species presence data, absences are rarely recorded. Therefore, many studies generate pseudo-absence data for modelling. However, in this study model quality was higher with null samples collected in the field. Next to species data the choice of landscape data is crucial for suitability modelling. Landscape data with high resolution and ecological relevance for the study species improve model reliability and quality for small elusive mammals like Muscardinus avellanarius. For large scale assessment of species distribution, models with low-detailed data are sufficient. For regional site-specific conservation issues like a conflict-free site for new wind turbines, high-detailed regional models are needed. Even though the overlap with optimally suitable habitat for M. avellanarius was low, the installation of wind plants can pose a threat due to habitat loss and fragmentation. To conclude, modellers should clearly state the purpose of their models and choose the according level of detail for species and environmental data.

Disease dynamics of Porites bleaching with tissue loss: prevalence, virulence, transmission, and environmental drivers

The prevalence, number of species affected, and geographical extent of coral diseases have been increasing worldwide. We present ecological data on the coral disease Porites bleaching with tissue loss (PBTL) from Kaneohe Bay, Oahu (Hawaii, USA), affecting P. compressa. This disease is prevalent throughout the year, although it shows spatio-temporal variability with peak prevalence during the warmer summer months. Temporal variability in disease prevalence showed a strong positive relationship with elevated water temperature. Spatially, PBTL prevalence peaked in clearer waters (lower turbidity) with higher water flow and higher densities of parrotfish, together explaining approximately 26% of the spatial variability in PBTL prevalence. However, the relatively poor performance of the spatial model suggests that other, unmeasured factors may be more important in driving spatial prevalence. PBTL was not transmissible through direct contact or the water column in controlled aquaria experiments, suggesting that this disease may not be caused by a pathogen, is not highly infectious, or perhaps requires a vector for transmission. In general, PBTL results in partial tissue mortality of affected colonies; on average, one-third of the tissue is lost. This disease can affect the same colonies repeatedly, suggesting a potential for progressive damage which could cause increased tissue loss over time. P. compressa is the main framework-building species in Kaneohe Bay; PBTL therefore has the potential to negatively impact the structure of the reefs at this location.

Landscape features and reservoir occurrence affecting the risk for equine infection with Borna disease virus

Borna disease (BD) is a severe endemic and fatal disorder caused by the neurotropic Borna disease virus (BDV) which mainly occurs in horses and sheep. Borna disease virus belongs to the order Mononegavirales, which includes many reservoir-bound viruses with high zoonotic and pathogenic properties including the filoviruses and lyssaviruses. Clinically manifest BD occurs in endemic areas of Germany, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, and Austria. A seasonal accumulation of cases in spring and summer, incidences that vary from year to year, and the recent detection of BDV in bicolored shrews (Crocidura leucodon) in Swiss endemic areas argue for a natural reservoir. We established a geographic information system analysis of the distribution of 485 equine BD cases in Bavarian (Germany) endemic areas and of the occurrence of 285 records of C. leucodon captured in Bavaria. Boosted regression trees were used to identify driving factors of habitat choice and virus prevalence. The distribution model of C. leucodon and the prevalence model for BDV had very good accuracy. Mean annual precipitation <900 mm, mean annual temperatures of 8 C, elevation <350 m, low forest cover, and a high percentage of urban fabric and arable land describe the optimal habitat for C. leucodon. Occurrence probability of C. leucodon was significantly higher in Bavarian BDV-endemic areas than in random areas in Bavaria. The prevalence of BD was higher in urban areas with annual mean precipitation of 800-900 mm, annual mean temperature of 8 C, and elevation >500 m. Our results indicate that the distribution model can accurately predict BD occurrence. Based on these results, practical safety precautions could be derived. The BDV model represents a suitable system for reservoir-bound, neurotropic Mononegavirales because it allows analyzing ecologic and biologic aspects that determine virus abundance, maintenance in reservoir species, and transmission to end host species.

Contrasting recovery following removal of growth anomalies in the corals Acropora and Montipora

Growth anomalies (GAs) in scleractinian corals drain energy from the host and can result in partial or entire colony mortality. Here I show that growth anomaly removal is an effective treatment for the branching coral Acropora acuminata, with 90% of subjects remaining GA-free 9 mo following the procedure. In contrast, the encrusting coral Montipora efflorescens did not respond positively to treatment, with GAs re-developing in 100% of treated subjects. There was no clear evidence that injuries sustained during GA removal increased susceptibility to GA development in either coral species. Based on these results, I hypothesize that the factors inducing GAs in Acropora acuminata are localized, whereas those in Montipora efflorescens appear more systemic throughout the colony-perhaps the result of a genetically-based factor, or a persistent causative agent such as a virus. GA removal may therefore be effective for targeted rescues of particular coral species and morphologies in reef systems with low overall disease prevalence and is likely to be most effective for scleractinian corals if complimented by management actions that address the ultimate drivers of GAs on coral reefs.

Climate change impacts on coral reefs: synergies with local effects, possibilities for acclimation, and management implications

Most reviews concerning the impact of climate change on coral reefs discuss independent effects of warming or ocean acidification. However, the interactions between these, and between these and direct local stressors are less well addressed. This review underlines that coral bleaching, acidification, and diseases are expected to interact synergistically, and will negatively influence survival, growth, reproduction, larval development, settlement, and post-settlement development of corals. Interactions with local stress factors such as pollution, sedimentation, and overfishing are further expected to compound effects of climate change. Reduced coral cover and species composition following coral bleaching events affect coral reef fish community structure, with variable outcomes depending on their habitat dependence and trophic specialisation. Ocean acidification itself impacts fish mainly indirectly through disruption of predation- and habitat-associated behavior changes. Zooxanthellate octocorals on reefs are often overlooked but are substantial occupiers of space; these also are highly susceptible to bleaching but because they tend to be more heterotrophic, climate change impacts mainly manifest in terms of changes in species composition and population structure. Non-calcifying macroalgae are expected to respond positively to ocean acidification and promote microbe-induced coral mortality via the release of dissolved compounds, thus intensifying phase-shifts from coral to macroalgal domination. Adaptation of corals to these consequences of CO2 rise through increased tolerance of corals and successful mutualistic associations between corals and zooxanthellae is likely to be insufficient to match the rate and frequency of the projected changes. Impacts are interactive and magnified, and because there is a limited capacity for corals to adapt to climate change, global targets of carbon emission reductions are insufficient for coral reefs, so lower targets should be pursued. Alleviation of most local stress factors such as nutrient discharges, sedimentation, and overfishing is also imperative if sufficient overall resilience of reefs to climate change is to be achieved.

Environmental factors affecting large-bodied coral reef fish assemblages in the Mariana Archipelago

Large-bodied reef fishes represent an economically and ecologically important segment of the coral reef fish assemblage. Many of these individuals supply the bulk of the reproductive output for their population and have a disproportionate effect on their environment (e.g. as apex predators or bioeroding herbivores). Large-bodied reef fishes also tend to be at greatest risk of overfishing, and their loss can result in a myriad of either cascading (direct) or indirect trophic and other effects. While many studies have investigated habitat characteristics affecting populations of small-bodied reef fishes, few have explored the relationship between large-bodied species and their environment. Here, we describe the distribution of the large-bodied reef fishes in the Mariana Archipelago with an emphasis on the environmental factors associated with their distribution. Of the factors considered in this study, a negative association with human population density showed the highest relative influence on the distribution of large-bodied reef fishes; however, depth, water temperature, and distance to deep water also were important. These findings provide new information on the ecology of large-bodied reef fishes can inform discussions concerning essential fish habitat and ecosystem-based management for these species and highlight important knowledge gaps worthy of additional research.

Global gradients of coral exposure to environmental stresses and implications for local management

BACKGROUND

The decline of coral reefs globally underscores the need for a spatial assessment of their exposure to multiple environmental stressors to estimate vulnerability and evaluate potential counter-measures.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

This study combined global spatial gradients of coral exposure to radiation stress factors (temperature, UV light and doldrums), stress-reinforcing factors (sedimentation and eutrophication), and stress-reducing factors (temperature variability and tidal amplitude) to produce a global map of coral exposure and identify areas where exposure depends on factors that can be locally managed. A systems analytical approach was used to define interactions between radiation stress variables, stress reinforcing variables and stress reducing variables. Fuzzy logic and spatial ordinations were employed to quantify coral exposure to these stressors. Globally, corals are exposed to radiation and reinforcing stress, albeit with high spatial variability within regions. Based on ordination of exposure grades, regions group into two clusters. The first cluster was composed of severely exposed regions with high radiation and low reducing stress scores (South East Asia, Micronesia, Eastern Pacific and the central Indian Ocean) or alternatively high reinforcing stress scores (the Middle East and the Western Australia). The second cluster was composed of moderately to highly exposed regions with moderate to high scores in both radiation and reducing factors (Caribbean, Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Central Pacific, Polynesia and the western Indian Ocean) where the GBR was strongly associated with reinforcing stress.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Despite radiation stress being the most dominant stressor, the exposure of coral reefs could be reduced by locally managing chronic human impacts that act to reinforce radiation stress. Future research and management efforts should focus on incorporating the factors that mitigate the effect of coral stressors until long-term carbon reductions are achieved through global negotiations.

Evaluating patterns of a white-band disease (WBD) outbreak in Acropora palmata using spatial analysis: a comparison of transect and colony clustering

Background

Despite being one of the first documented, there is little known of the causative agent or environmental stressors that promote white-band disease (WBD), a major disease of Caribbean Acropora palmata. Likewise, there is little known about the spatiality of outbreaks. We examined the spatial patterns of WBD during a 2004 outbreak at Buck Island Reef National Monument in the US Virgin Islands.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Ripley's K statistic was used to measure spatial dependence of WBD across scales. Localized clusters of WBD were identified using the DMAP spatial filtering technique. Statistics were calculated for colony- (number of A. palmata colonies with and without WBD within each transect) and transect-level (presence/absence of WBD within transects) data to evaluate differences in spatial patterns at each resolution of coral sampling. The Ripley's K plots suggest WBD does cluster within the study area, and approached statistical significance (p = 0.1) at spatial scales of 1100 m or less. Comparisons of DMAP results suggest the transect-level overestimated the prevalence and spatial extent of the outbreak. In contrast, more realistic prevalence estimates and spatial patterns were found by weighting each transect by the number of individual A. palmata colonies with and without WBD.

Conclusions

As the search for causation continues, surveillance and proper documentation of the spatial patterns may inform etiology, and at the same time assist reef managers in allocating resources to tracking the disease. Our results indicate that the spatial scale of data collected can drastically affect the calculation of prevalence and spatial distribution of WBD outbreaks. Specifically, we illustrate that higher resolution sampling resulted in more realistic disease estimates. This should assist in selecting appropriate sampling designs for future outbreak investigations. The spatial techniques used here can be used to facilitate other coral disease studies, as well as, improve reef conservation and management.

Patterns of coral disease across the Hawaiian archipelago: relating disease to environment

In Hawaii, coral reefs occur across a gradient of biological (host abundance), climatic (sea surface temperature anomalies) and anthropogenic conditions from the human-impacted reefs of the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) to the pristine reefs of the northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI). Coral disease surveys were conducted at 142 sites from across the Archipelago and disease patterns examined. Twelve diseases were recorded from three coral genera (Porites, Montipora, Acropora) with Porites having the highest prevalence. Porites growth anomalies (PorGAs) were significantly more prevalent within and indicative of reefs in the MHI and Porites trematodiasis (PorTrm) was significantly more prevalent within and indicative of reefs in the NWHI. Porites tissue loss syndrome (PorTLS) was also important in driving regional differences but that relationship was less clear. These results highlight the importance of understanding disease ecology when interpreting patterns of disease occurrence. PorTrm is caused by a parasitic flatworm that utilizes multiple hosts during its life cycle (fish, mollusk and coral). All three hosts must be present for the disease to occur and higher host abundance leads to higher disease prevalence. Thus, a high prevalence of PorTrm on Hawaiian reefs would be an indicator of a healthy coral reef ecosystem. In contrast, the high occurrence of PorGAs within the MHI suggests that PorGAs are related, directly or indirectly, to some environmental co-factor associated with increased human population sizes. Focusing on the three indicator diseases (PorGAs, PorTrm, PorTLS) we used statistical modeling to examine the underlying associations between disease prevalence and 14 different predictor variables (biotic and abiotic). All three diseases showed positive associations with host abundance and negative associations with thermal stress. The association with human population density differed among disease states with PorGAs showing a positive and PorTrm showing a negative association, but no significant explanatory power was offered for PorTLS.

Spatial and temporal patterns of scleractinian coral, soft coral, and zoanthid disease on a remote, near-pristine coral reef (Palmyra Atoll, central Pacific)

There is an urgent need for accurate baselines of coral disease prevalence across our oceans in order for sudden or unnatural changes to be recognized. Palmyra Atoll allows us to study disease dynamics under near-pristine, functionally intact conditions. We examined disease prevalence among all known species of scleractinian coral, soft coral and zoanthid (Palythoa) at a variety of coral reef habitats at Palmyra over a 2 yr period. In 2008, overall disease prevalence across the atoll was low (0.33%), but higher on the shallower backreef (0.88%) and reef terrace (0.80%) than on the deeper forereef (0.09%). Scleractinian coral disease prevalence was higher (0.30%) than were soft coral and zoanthid disease (0.03% combined). Growth anomalies (GAs) were the most commonly encountered lesions, with scleractinian species in the genera Astreopora (2.12%), Acropora (1.30%), and Montipora (0.98%) showing the highest prevalence atoll-wide. Discoloration necrosis (DN) was most prevalent in the zoanthid Palythoa tuberculosa (1.18%), although the soft coral Sinulana and Montipora also had a prevalence of 0.44 and 0.01%, respectively. Overall disease prevalence within permanently marked transects increased from 0.65% in 2008 to 0.79% in 2009. Palythoa DN contributed most to this increased prevalence, which coincided with rising temperatures during the 2009 El Niño. GAs on the majority of susceptible genera at Palmyra increased in number over time, and led to tissue death. Host distribution and environmental factors (e.g., temperature) appear to be important for determining spatiotemporal patterns of disease at Palmyra. More sophisticated analyses are required to tease apart the likely inter-correlated proximate drivers of disease occurrence on remote, near-pristine reefs.

Growth anomalies on the coral genera Acropora and Porites are strongly associated with host density and human population size across the Indo-Pacific

Growth anomalies (GAs) are common, tumor-like diseases that can cause significant morbidity and decreased fecundity in the major Indo-Pacific reef-building coral genera, Acropora and Porites. GAs are unusually tractable for testing hypotheses about drivers of coral disease because of their pan-Pacific distributions, relatively high occurrence, and unambiguous ease of identification. We modeled multiple disease-environment associations that may underlie the prevalence of Acropora growth anomalies (AGA) (n = 304 surveys) and Porites growth anomalies (PGA) (n = 602 surveys) from across the Indo-Pacific. Nine predictor variables were modeled, including coral host abundance, human population size, and sea surface temperature and ultra-violet radiation anomalies. Prevalence of both AGAs and PGAs were strongly host density-dependent. PGAs additionally showed strong positive associations with human population size. Although this association has been widely posited, this is one of the first broad-scale studies unambiguously linking a coral disease with human population size. These results emphasize that individual coral diseases can show relatively distinct patterns of association with environmental predictors, even in similar diseases (growth anomalies) found on different host genera (Acropora vs. Porites). As human densities and environmental degradation increase globally, the prevalence of coral diseases like PGAs could increase accordingly, halted only perhaps by declines in host density below thresholds required for disease establishment.

Endomannosidase processes oligosaccharides of alpha1-antitrypsin and its naturally occurring genetic variants in the Golgi apparatus

Endomannosidase provides an alternate glucose-trimming pathway in the Golgi apparatus. However, it is unknown if the action of endomannosidase is dependent on the conformation of the substrate. We have investigated the processing by endomannosidase of the alpha1-antitrypsin oligosaccharides and its disease-causing misfolded Z and Hong Kong variants. Oligosaccharides of wild-type and misfolded alpha1-antitrypsin expressed in castanospermine-treated hepatocytes or glucosidase II-deficient Phar 2.7 cells were selectively processed by endomannosidase and subsequently converted to complex type oligosaccharides as indicated by Endo H resistance and PNGase F sensitivity. Overexpression of endomannosidase in castanospermine-treated hepatocytes resulted in processing of all oligosaccharides of wild-type and variants of alpha1-antitrypsin. Thus, endomannosidase does not discriminate the folding state of the substrate and provides a back-up mechanism for completion of N-glycosylation of endoplasmic reticulum-escaped glucosylated glycoproteins. For exported misfolded glycoproteins, this would provide a pathway for the formation of mature oligosaccharides important for their proper trafficking and correct functioning.