Differences in HIV natural history among African and non-African seroconverters in Europe and seroconverters in sub-Saharan Africa

A systematic review of qualitative research on recently acquired HIV

OBJECTIVES

Recently acquired HIV is a critical time when people may experience debilitating symptoms and is when they are most likely to pass HIV on. Qualitative research offers insights into lived experiences and a deeper understanding of the contextual factors underlying HIV acquisition. We aimed to synthesize qualitative literature on recently acquired HIV.

DESIGN

Systematic review and textual narrative synthesis.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, CINAHL Plus, PsycINFO and Sociology Database. Articles were screened, and two authors completed full text review and data extraction. Quality appraisal was conducted (Critical Appraisal Skills Programme Qualitative Studies Checklist) and certainty of findings graded (GRADE-CERQual).

RESULTS

We reviewed 1890 articles (1554 following de-duplication), excluding 1539. Fifteen articles were included and an additional article was included after updating the search. We identified 15 themes, three of which we have high confidence in: recent acquisition of HIV facilitates understanding of circumstances of HIV acquisition; indeterminate HIV tests generate uncertainty and anxiety; and people with recently acquired HIV are motivated to reduce risk of onward transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the importance of continued research into recently acquired HIV, as well as the need for support to manage the emotional impact of indeterminate test results and negotiate risk reduction. We found no studies exploring sexual risk in the context of recently acquired HIV, or use of pre-exposure prophylaxis or treatment as prevention. The literature is primarily focused on HIV acquisition from an individual and behavioural perspective, neglecting important aspects of lived experience such as immediate ART, stigma, and health and wellbeing.

Prevalence of and factors associated with late diagnosis of HIV in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe: Results from population-based nationally representative surveys

INTRODUCTION

Late diagnosis of HIV (LD) increases the risk of morbidity, mortality, and HIV transmission. We used nationally representative data from population-based HIV impact assessment (PHIA) surveys in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (2015-2016) to characterize adults at risk of LD and to examine associations between LD and presumed HIV transmission to cohabiting sexual partners.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of LD, defined as CD4 count <350 cells/μL, among adults newly diagnosed with HIV during the surveys and odds ratios for associated factors. We linked newly diagnosed adults (index cases) to their household sexual partners and calculated adjusted odds ratios for associations between LD of the index case, viral load of the index case, and duration of HIV exposure in the relationship, and the HIV status of the household sexual partner.

RESULTS

Of 1,804 adults who were newly diagnosed with HIV in the surveys, 49% (882) were diagnosed late. LD was associated with male sex, older age, and almost five times the odds of having an HIV-positive household sexual partner (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.65 [95% confidence interval: 2.56-8.45]). Longer duration of HIV exposure in a relationship and higher viral load of the index case were both independently associated with higher odds of having HIV-positive household sexual partners. Individuals with HIV exposure of more than 5 years had more than three times (aOR 3.42 [95% CI: 1.63-7.18]) higher odds of being HIV positive than those with less than 2 years HIV exposure. The odds of being HIV positive were increased in individuals who were in a relationship with an index case with a viral load of 400-3499 copies/mL (aOR 4.06 [95% CI 0.45-36.46]), 3,500-9,999 copies/mL (aOR 11.32 [95% CI: 4.08-31.39]), 10,000-49,999 copies/mL (aOR 17.07 [95% CI: 9.18-31.72]), and ≥50,000 copies/mL (aOR 28.41 [95% CI: 12.18-66.28]) compared to individuals who were in a relationship with an index case with a viral load of <400 copies/mL.

CONCLUSIONS

LD remains a challenge in Southern Africa and is strongly associated with presumed HIV transmission to household sexual partners. Our study underscores the need for earlier HIV diagnosis, particularly among men and older adults, and the importance of index testing.

Disease progression and mortality with untreated HIV infection: evidence synthesis of HIV seroconverter cohorts, antiretroviral treatment clinical cohorts and population-based survey data

Introduction

Model‐based estimates of key HIV indicators depend on past epidemic trends that are derived based on assumptions about HIV disease progression and mortality in the absence of antiretroviral treatment (ART). Population‐based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) household surveys conducted between 2015 and 2018 found substantial numbers of respondents living with untreated HIV infection. CD4 cell counts measured in these individuals provide novel information to estimate HIV disease progression and mortality rates off ART.

Methods

We used Bayesian multi‐parameter evidence synthesis to combine data on (1) cross‐sectional CD4 cell counts among untreated adults living with HIV from 10 PHIA surveys, (2) survival after HIV seroconversion in East African seroconverter cohorts, (3) post‐seroconversion CD4 counts and (4) mortality rates by CD4 count predominantly from European, North American and Australian seroconverter cohorts. We used incremental mixture importance sampling to estimate HIV natural history and ART uptake parameters used in the Spectrum software. We validated modelled trends in CD4 count at ART initiation against ART initiator cohorts in sub‐Saharan Africa.

Results

Median untreated HIV survival decreased with increasing age at seroconversion, from 12.5 years [95% credible interval (CrI): 12.1–12.7] at ages 15–24 to 7.2 years (95% CrI: 7.1–7.7) at ages 45–54. Older age was associated with lower initial CD4 counts, faster CD4 count decline and higher HIV‐related mortality rates. Our estimates suggested a weaker association between ART uptake and HIV‐related mortality rates than previously assumed in Spectrum. Modelled CD4 counts in untreated people living with HIV matched recent household survey data well, though some intercountry variation in frequencies of CD4 counts above 500 cells/mm³ was not explained. Trends in CD4 counts at ART initiation were comparable to data from ART initiator cohorts. An alternate model that stratified progression and mortality rates by sex did not improve model fit appreciably.

Conclusions

Synthesis of multiple data sources results in similar overall survival as previous Spectrum parameter assumptions but implies more rapid progression and longer survival in lower CD4 categories. New natural history parameter values improve consistency of model estimates with recent cross‐sectional CD4 data and trends in CD4 counts at ART initiation.

Mathematical Model Impact Analysis of a Real-Life Pre-exposure Prophylaxis and Treatment-As-Prevention Study Among Female Sex Workers in Cotonou, Benin

BACKGROUND

Daily pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and treatment-as-prevention (TasP) reduce HIV acquisition and transmission risk, respectively. A demonstration study (2015-2017) assessed TasP and PrEP feasibility among female sex workers (FSW) in Cotonou, Benin.

SETTING

Cotonou, Benin.

METHODS

We developed a compartmental HIV transmission model featuring PrEP and antiretroviral therapy (ART) among the high-risk (FSW and clients) and low-risk populations, calibrated to historical epidemiological and demonstration study data, reflecting observed lower PrEP uptake, adherence and retention compared with TasP. We estimated the population-level impact of the 2-year study and several 20-year intervention scenarios, varying coverage and adherence independently and together. We report the percentage [median, 2.5th-97.5th percentile uncertainty interval (95% UI)] of HIV infections prevented comparing the intervention and counterfactual (2017 coverages: 0% PrEP and 49% ART) scenarios.

RESULTS

The 2-year study (2017 coverages: 9% PrEP and 83% ART) prevented an estimated 8% (95% UI 6-12) and 6% (3-10) infections among FSW over 2 and 20 years, respectively, compared with 7% (3-11) and 5% (2-9) overall. The PrEP and TasP arms prevented 0.4% (0.2-0.8) and 4.6% (2.2-8.7) infections overall over 20 years, respectively. Twenty-year PrEP and TasP scale-ups (2035 coverages: 47% PrEP and 88% ART) prevented 21% (17-26) and 17% (10-27) infections among FSW, respectively, and 5% (3-10) and 17% (10-27) overall. Compared with TasP scale-up alone, PrEP and TasP combined scale-up prevented 1.9× and 1.2× more infections among FSW and overall, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The demonstration study impact was modest, and mostly from TasP. Increasing PrEP adherence and coverage improves impact substantially among FSW, but little overall. We recommend TasP in prevention packages.

Virological remission after antiretroviral therapy interruption in female African HIV seroconverters

INTRODUCTION

There are few data on the frequency of virological remission in African individuals after treatment with antiretroviral therapy (ART) in primary HIV infection (PHI).

METHODS

We studied participants (n = 82) from South Africa and Uganda in Short Pulse Antiretroviral Treatment at HIV-1 Seroconversion, the first trial of treatment interruption in African individuals with PHI randomized to deferred ART or 48 weeks of immediate ART. All were female and infected with non-B HIV subtypes, mainly C. We measured HIV DNA in CD4+ T cells, CD4+ cell count, plasma viral load (pVL), cell-associated HIV RNA and T-cell activation and exhaustion. We explored associations with clinical progression and time to pVL rebound after treatment interruption (n = 22). Data were compared with non-African Short Pulse Antiretroviral Treatment at HIV-1 Seroconversion participants.

RESULTS

Pretherapy pVL and integrated HIV DNA were lower in Africans compared with non-Africans (median 4.16 vs. 4.72 log10 copies/ml and 3.07 vs. 3.61 log10 copies/million CD4+ T cells, respectively; P < 0.001). Pre-ART HIV DNA in Africans was associated with clinical progression (P = 0.001, HR per log10 copies/million CD4+ T cells increase (95% CI) 5.38 (1.95-14.79)) and time to pVL rebound (P = 0.034, HR per log10 copies/ml increase 4.33 (1.12-16.84)). After treatment interruption, Africans experienced longer duration of viral remission than non-Africans (P < 0.001; HR 3.90 (1.75-8.71). Five of 22 African participants (22.7%) maintained VL less than 400 copies/ml over a median of 188 weeks following treatment interruption.

CONCLUSION

We find evidence of greater probability of virological remission following treatment interruption among African participants, although we are unable to differentiate between sex, ethnicity and viral subtype. The finding warrants further investigation.

Estimation of the duration between HIV seroconversion and HIV diagnosis in different population groups in French Guiana: Strategic information to reduce the proportion of undiagnosed infections

BACKGROUND

Given the great efforts put into the strategic objective of reducing the proportion of HIV-infected patients that are undiagnosed, the aim of the present study was to review the temporal trends between 1997 and 2016 for median estimates of infection duration and median CD4 count at diagnosis for the main patient origins in French Guiana.

METHODS

CD4 cell count at HIV sero-conversion and square root of CD4 cell decline were obtained using the CD4 decline in a cohort of HIV-infected persons in the UK, fitting random effect (slope and intercept) multilevel linear regression models. Multivariate analysis used robust regression for modeling the delay between estimated HIV seroconversion and diagnosis and quantile regression for CD4 at HIV diagnosis.

RESULTS

The median interval between the estimated HIV seroconversion and HIV diagnosis was 8 years for patients fromBrazil, 4.5 years for those from Haiti, 6.6 years for those from Suriname, 3.3 years for patients from Guyana, and 3.1 years for French patients. A simple robust regression model with French patients as reference group adjusting for sex and age at the time of diagnosis showed that the interval was significantly longer for Brazilian (β = +3.7 years, P = 0.001), Surinamese (β = +4.2 years, P<0.0001), Haitian origins (β = +1.5 years, P = 0.049) but not for those originating from Guyana (β = -0.03 years, P = 0.9); Men independently had a longer interval than women (β = +3.5 years, P<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite great efforts in French Guiana regarding HIV testing both in terms of diversification and intensification we still need to tailor the offer to better reach the communities in need. These results should help authorities scale up and optimize initiatives to reduce the proportion of patients who are unaware of their infection. They also raise the question of the role of stigma and discrimination as a barrier to HIV testing in small communities, and further emphasize the importance of reducing it.

Limiting Cumulative HIV Viremia Copy-Years by Early Treatment Reduces Risk of AIDS and Death

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

Background:

Viremia copy-years (VCY), a time-updated measure of cumulative HIV exposure, predicts AIDS/death; although its utility in deciding when to start combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) remains unclear. We aimed to assess the impact of initiating versus deferring cART on risk of AIDS/death by levels of VCY both independent of and within CD4 cell count strata ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter.

Methods:

Using Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) data, we created a series of nested “trials” corresponding to consecutive months for individuals ≥16 years at seroconversion after 1995 who were cART-naive and AIDS-free. Pooling across all trials, time to AIDS/death by CD4, and VCY strata was compared in those initiating vs. deferring cART using Cox models adjusted for: country, sex, risk group, seroconversion year, age, time since last HIV-RNA, and current CD4, VCY, HIV-RNA, and mean number of previous CD4/HIV-RNA measurements/year.

Results:

Of 9353 individuals, 5312 (57%) initiated cART and 486 (5%) acquired AIDS/died. Pooling CD4 strata, risk of AIDS/death associated with initiating vs. deferring cART reduced as VCY increased. In patients with high CD4 cell counts, ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, there was a trend for a greater reduction for those initiating vs. deferring with increasing VCY (P = 0.09), with the largest benefit in the VCY ≥100,000 copy-years/mL group [hazard ratio (95% CI) = 0.41 (0.19 to 0.87)].

Conclusions:

For individuals with CD4 ≥500 cells per cubic millimeter, limiting the cumulative HIV burden to <100,000 copy-years/mL through cART may reduce the risk of AIDS/death.

Joint estimation of CD4+ cell progression and survival in untreated individuals with HIV-1 infection

Objective:

We compiled the largest dataset of seroconverter cohorts to date from 25 countries across Africa, North America, Europe, and Southeast/East (SE/E) Asia to simultaneously estimate transition rates between CD4⁺ cell stages and death, in antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive HIV-1-infected individuals.

Design:

A hidden Markov model incorporating a misclassification matrix was used to represent natural short-term fluctuations and measurement errors in CD4⁺ cell counts. Covariates were included to estimate the transition rates and survival probabilities for each subgroup.

Results:

The median follow-up time for 16 373 eligible individuals was 4.1 years (interquartile range 1.7–7.1), and the mean age at seroconversion was 31.1 years (SD 8.8). A total of 14 525 individuals had recorded CD4⁺ cell counts pre-ART, 1885 died, and 6947 initiated ART. Median (interquartile range) survival for men aged 20 years at seroconversion was 13.0 (12.4–13.4), 11.6 (10.9–12.3), and 8.3 years (7.9–8.9) in Europe/North America, Africa, and SE/E Asia, respectively. Mortality rates increase with age (hazard ratio 2.22, 95% confidence interval 1.84–2.67 for >45 years compared with <25 years) and vary by region (hazard ratio 2.68, 1.75–4.12 for Africa and 1.88, 1.50–2.35 for Asia compared with Europe/North America). CD4⁺ cell decline was significantly faster in Asian cohorts compared with Europe/North America (hazard ratio 1.45, 1.36–1.54).

Conclusion:

Mortality and CD4⁺ cell progression rates exhibited regional and age-specific differences, with decreased survival in African and SE/E Asian cohorts compared with Europe/North America and in older age groups. This extensive dataset reveals heterogeneities between regions and ages, which should be incorporated into future HIV models.

A pseudo-random patient sampling method evaluated

OBJECTIVES

To compare two human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) cohorts to determine whether a pseudo-random sample can represent the entire study population.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

HIV-positive patients receiving care at eight sites in seven Asian countries. The TREAT Asia HIV Observational database (TAHOD) pseudo-randomly selected a patient sample, while TREAT Asia HIV Observational database-Low Intensity Transfer (TAHOD-LITE) included all patients. We compared patient demographics, CD4 count, and HIV viral load testing for each cohort. Risk factors associated with CD4 count response, HIV viral load suppression (<400 copies/mL), and survival were determined for each cohort.

RESULTS

There were 2,318 TAHOD patients and 14,714 TAHOD-LITE patients. Patient demographics, CD4 count, and HIV viral load testing rates were broadly similar between the cohorts. CD4 count response and all-cause mortality were consistent among the cohorts with similar risk factors. HIV viral load response appeared to be superior in TAHOD and many risk factors differed, possibly due to viral load being tested on a subset of patients.

CONCLUSION

Our study gives the first empirical evidence that analysis of risk factors for completely ascertained end points from our pseudo-randomly selected patient sample may be generalized to our larger, complete population of HIV-positive patients. However, results can significantly vary when analyzing smaller or pseudo-random samples, particularly if some patient data are not completely missing at random, such as viral load results.

Effectiveness of combination packages for HIV-1 prevention in sub-Saharan Africa depends on partnership network structure: a mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES

Combination packages for HIV prevention can leverage the effectiveness of biomedical and behavioural elements to lower disease incidence with realistic targets for individual and population risk reduction. We investigated how sexual network structures can maximise the effectiveness of a package targeting sexually active adults in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with intervention components for medical male circumcision (MMC) and sexual partnership concurrency (having >1 ongoing partner).

METHODS

Network-based mathematical models of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) transmission dynamics among heterosexual couples were used to explore how changes to MMC alone and in combination with changes to concurrency impacted endemic HIV-1 prevalence and incidence. Starting from a base model parameterised from empirical data from West Africa, we simulated the prevalence of circumcision from 10% to 90% and concurrency was modelled at four discrete levels corresponding to values observed across SSA.

RESULTS

MMC and concurrency could contribute to the empirical variation in HIV-1 disease prevalence across SSA. Small reductions in concurrency resulted in large declines in HIV-1 prevalence. Scaling up circumcision in low-concurrency settings yields a greater relative benefit, but the absolute number of infections averted depends on both the circumcision coverage and baseline incidence. Epidemic extinction with this package will require substantial scale-up of MMC in low-concurrency settings.

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic sexual network structure should be considered in the design and targeting of MMC within combination HIV-1 prevention packages. Realistic levels of coverage for these packages within southern Africa could lead to a reduction of incidence to the low levels observed in western Africa, and possibly, epidemic extinction.

Sub-Saharan African migrants living with HIV acquired after migration, France, ANRS PARCOURS study, 2012 to 2013

We estimated the proportion of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa who acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) while living in France. Life-event and clinical information was collected in 2012 and 2013 from a random sample of HIV-infected outpatients born in sub-Saharan Africa and living in the Paris region. We assumed HIV infection in France if at least one of the following was fulfilled: (i) HIV diagnosis at least 11 years after arrival in France, (ii) at least one negative HIV test in France, (iii) sexual debut after arrival in France. Otherwise, time of HIV infection was based on statistical modelling of first CD4(+) T-cell count; infection in France was assumed if more than 50% (median scenario) or more than 95% (conservative scenario) of modelled infection times occurred after migration. We estimated that 49% of 898 HIV-infected adults born in sub-Saharan Africa (95% confidence interval (CI): 45-53) in the median and 35% (95% CI: 31-39) in the conservative scenario acquired HIV while living in France. This proportion was higher in men than women (44% (95% CI: 37-51) vs 30% (95% CI: 25-35); conservative scenario) and increased with length of stay in France. These high proportions highlight the need for improved HIV policies targeting migrants.

[HIV infection and immigration]

Migrants represent around one third of patients newly diagnosed with HIV in Spain and they constitute a population with higher vulnerability to its negative consequences due to the socio-cultural, economical, working, administrative and legal contexts. Migrants are diagnosed later, which worsens their individual prognosis and facilitates the maintenance of the HIV epidemic. In spite of the different barriers they experience to access healthcare in general, and HIV-related services in particular, access to antiretroviral treatment has been similar to that of the autochthonous population. However, benefits of treatment have been not, with women in general and men from Sub-Saharan Africa exhibiting the worse response to treatment. We need to proactively promote earlier diagnosis of HIV infection, the adoption of preventive measures to avoid new infections, and to deliver accessible, adapted and high-quality health-care.

CD4+ cell dynamics in untreated HIV-1 infection: overall rates, and effects of age, viral load, sex and calendar time

Background:

CD4⁺ cell count is a key measure of HIV disease progression, and the basis of successive international guidelines for treatment initiation. CD4⁺ cell dynamics are used in mathematical and econometric models for evaluating public health need and interventions. Here, we estimate rates of CD4⁺ decline, stratified by relevant covariates, in a form that is clinically transparent and can be directly used in such models.

Methods:

We analyse the AIDS Therapy Evaluation in the Netherlands cohort, including individuals with date of seroconversion estimated to be within 1 year and with intensive clinical follow-up prior to treatment initiation. Owing to the fact that CD4⁺ cell counts are intrinsically noisy, we separate the analysis into long-term trends of smoothed CD4⁺ cell counts and an observation model relating actual CD4⁺ measurements to the underlying smoothed counts. We use a monotonic spline smoothing model to describe the decline of smoothed CD4⁺ cell counts through categories CD4⁺ above 500, 350–500, 200–350 and 200 cells/μl or less. We estimate the proportion of individuals starting in each category after seroconversion and the average time spent in each category. We examine individual-level cofactors which influence these parameters.

Results:

Among untreated individuals, the time spent in each compartment was 3.32, 2.70, 5.50 and 5.06 years. Only 76% started in the CD4⁺ cell count above 500 cells/μl compartment after seroconversion. Set-point viral load (SPVL) was an important factor: individuals with at least 5 log₁₀ copies/ml took 5.37 years to reach CD4⁺ cell count less than 200 cells/μl compared with 15.76 years for SPVL less than 4 log₁₀ copies/ml.

Conclusion:

Many individuals already have CD4⁺ cell count below 500 cells/μl after seroconversion. SPVL strongly influences the rate of CD4⁺ decline. Treatment guidelines should consider measuring SPVL, whereas mathematical models should incorporate SPVL stratification.

Does rapid HIV disease progression prior to combination antiretroviral therapy hinder optimal CD4+ T-cell recovery once HIV-1 suppression is achieved?

Objective:

This article compares trends in CD4⁺ T-cell recovery and proportions achieving optimal restoration (≥500 cells/μl) after viral suppression following combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation between rapid and nonrapid progressors.

Methods:

We included HIV-1 seroconverters achieving viral suppression within 6 months of cART. Rapid progressors were individuals experiencing at least one CD4⁺ less than 200 cells/μl within 12 months of seroconverters before cART. We used piecewise linear mixed models and logistic regression for optimal restoration.

Results:

Of 4024 individuals, 294 (7.3%) were classified as rapid progressors. At the same CD4⁺ T-cell count at cART start (baseline), rapid progressors experienced faster CD4⁺ T-cell increases than nonrapid progressors in first month [difference (95% confidence interval) in mean increase/month (square root scale): 1.82 (1.61; 2.04)], which reversed to slightly slower increases in months 1–18 [−0.05 (−0.06; −0.03)] and no significant differences in 18–60 months [−0.003 (−0.01; 0.01)]. Percentage achieving optimal restoration was significantly lower for rapid progressors than nonrapid progressors at months 12 (29.2 vs. 62.5%) and 36 (47.1 vs. 72.4%) but not at month 60 (70.4 vs. 71.8%). These differences disappeared after adjusting for baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count: odds ratio (95% confidence interval) 0.86 (0.61; 1.20), 0.90 (0.38; 2.17) and 1.56 (0.55; 4.46) at months 12, 36 and 60, respectively.

Conclusion:

Among people on suppressive antiretroviral therapy, rapid progressors experience faster initial increases of CD4⁺ T-cell counts than nonrapid progressors, but are less likely to achieve optimal restoration during the first 36 months after cART, mainly because of lower CD4⁺ T-cell counts at cART initiation.

Estimating PMTCT's Impact on Heterosexual HIV Transmission: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) strategies include combined short-course antiretrovirals during pregnancy (Option A), triple-drug antiretroviral treament (ART) during pregnancy and breastfeeding (Option B), or lifelong ART (Option B+). The WHO also recommends ART for HIV treatment and prevention of sexual transmission of HIV. The impact of PMTCT strategies on prevention of sexual HIV transmission of HIV is not known. We estimated the population-level impact of PMTCT interventions on heterosexual HIV transmission in southwestern Uganda and KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, two regions with different HIV prevalence and fertility rates.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We constructed and validated dynamic, stochastic, network-based HIV transmission models for each region. PMTCT Options A, B, and B+ were simulated over ten years under three scenarios: 1) current ART and PMTCT coverage, 2) current ART and high PMTCT coverage, and 3) high ART and PMTCT coverage. We compared adult HIV incidence after ten years of each intervention to Option A (and current ART) at current coverage.

RESULTS

At current coverage, Options B and B+ reduced heterosexual HIV incidence by about 5% and 15%, respectively, in both countries. With current ART and high PMTCT coverage, Option B+ reduced HIV incidence by 35% in Uganda and 19% in South Africa, while Option B had smaller, but meaningful, reductions. The greatest reductions in HIV incidence were achieved with high ART and PMTCT coverage. In this scenario, all PMTCT strategies yielded similar results.

DISCUSSION

Implementation of Options B/B+ reduces adult HIV incidence, with greater effect (relative to Option A at current levels) in Uganda than South Africa. These results are likely driven by Uganda's higher fertility rates.

Estimation and Short-Term Prediction of the Course of the HIV Epidemic Using Demographic and Health Survey Methodology-Like Data

BACKGROUND

Mathematical models have played important roles in the understanding of epidemics and in the study of the impacts of various behavioral or medical measures. However, modeling accurately the future spread of an epidemic requires context-specific parameters that are difficult to estimate because of lack of data. Our objective is to propose a methodology to estimate context-specific parameters using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS)-like data that can be used in mathematical modeling of short-term HIV spreading.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The model splits the population according to sex, age, HIV status, and antiretroviral treatment status. To estimate context-specific parameters, we used individuals' histories included in DHS-like data and a statistical analysis that used decomposition of the Poisson likelihood. To predict the course of the HIV epidemic, sex- and age-specific differential equations were used. This approach was applied to recent data from Kenya. The approach allowed the estimation of several key epidemiological parameters. Women had a higher infection rate than men and the highest infection rate in the youngest age groups (15-24 and 25-34 years) whereas men had the highest infection rate in age group 25-34 years. The immunosuppression rates were similar between age groups. The treatment rate was the highest in age group 35-59 years in both sexes. The results showed that, within the 15-24 year age group, increasing male circumcision coverage and antiretroviral therapy coverage at CD4 ≤ 350/mm3 over the current 70% could have short-term impacts.

CONCLUSIONS

The study succeeded in estimating the model parameters using DHS-like data rather than literature data. The analysis provides a framework for using the same data for estimation and prediction, which can improve the validity of context-specific predictions and help designing HIV prevention campaigns.

New indicators for delay in initiation of antiretroviral treatment: estimates for Cameroon

Objective

To propose two new indicators for monitoring access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); (i) the time from HIV seroconversion to ART initiation, and (ii) the time from ART eligibility to initiation, referred to as delay in ART initiation. To estimate values of these indicators in Cameroon.

Methods

We used linear regression to model the natural decline in CD4+ T-lymphocyte (CD4+ cell) numbers in HIV-infected individuals over time. The model was fitted using data from a cohort of 351 people in Côte d’Ivoire. We used the model to estimate the time from seroconversion to ART initiation and the delay in ART initiation in a representative sample of 4154 HIV-infected people who started ART in Cameroon between 2007 and 2010.

Findings

In Cameroon, the median CD4+ cell counts at ART initiation increased from 140 cells/μl (interquartile range, IQR: 66 to 210) in 2007–2009 to 163 cells/μl (IQR: 73 to 260) in 2010. The estimated average time from seroconversion to ART initiation decreased from 10.4 years (95% confidence interval, CI: 10.3 to 10.5) to 9.8 years (95% CI: 9.6 to 10.0). Delay in ART initiation increased from 3.4 years (95% CI: 3.1 to 3.7) to 5.8 years (95% CI: 5.6 to 6.2).

Conclusion

The estimated time to initiate ART and the delay in ART initiation indicate that progress in Cameroon is insufficient. These indicators should help monitor whether public health interventions to accelerate ART initiation are successful.

Temporal trends in prognostic markers of HIV-1 virulence and transmissibility: an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Measures of CD4 T-cell count and HIV-1 plasma viral load before antiretroviral therapy are proxies for virulence. Whether these proxies are changing over time has implications for prevention and treatment. The aim of this study was to investigate those trends.

METHODS

Data were derived from the Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) collaboration of mainly European seroconverter cohorts. Longitudinal CD4 cell counts and plasma viral load measurements before the initiation of antiretroviral therapy or AIDS onset were analysed by use of linear or fractional polynomials mixed models adjusting for all available potential confounders. Calendar time effects were modelled through natural cubic splines.

FINDINGS

15 875 individuals seroconverting from 1979 to 2008 fulfilled the inclusion criteria; 3215 (20·3%) were women; median follow-up was 31 months (IQR 14-62); dropout before starting antiretroviral therapy or AIDS onset was 8·1%. Estimated CD4 counts at seroconversion for a typical individual declined from about 770 cells per μL (95% CI 750-800) in the early 1980s to a plateau of about 570 cells per μL (555-585) after 2002. CD4 cell rate of loss increased up to 2002. Estimated set-point plasma viral loads increased from 4·05 log10 copies per mL (95% CI 3·98-4·12) in 1980 to 4·50 log10 copies per mL (4·45-4·54) in 2002 with a tendency of returning to lower loads thereafter. Results were similar when we restricted analyses to various subsets, including adjusting for plasma viral load assay, censored follow-up at 3 years, or used variations of the main statistical approach.

INTERPRETATION

Our results provide strong indications of increased HIV-1 virulence and transmissibility during the course of the epidemic and a potential plateau effect after about 2002.

FUNDING

European Union Seventh Framework Programme.

The effects of HIV-1 subtype and ethnicity on the rate of CD4 cell count decline in patients naive to antiretroviral therapy: a Canadian-European collaborative retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Ethnic differences have the potential to confound associations between HIV-1 subtype and immunologic progression. We compared declines in CD4 cell counts during untreated infection for the most prevalent HIV-1 subtypes, focusing on distinguishing between the effects of viral subtype and ethnicity.

METHODS

We combined data from 4 European and 6 Canadian cohorts, selecting adults in the stable chronic phase of untreated HIV infection. We estimated the change in square root CD4 cell count over time for subtypes and ethnicities using mixed models, adjusting for covariates selected for their potential effect on initial CD4 cell count or its decline.

RESULTS

Data from 9772 patients were analyzed, contributing 79 175 measurements of CD4 cell count and 24 157 person-years of follow-up. Overall, there were no appreciable differences in CD4 cell count decline for viral subtypes A, CRF01_AE, CRF02_AG, C and G compared with viral subtype B; whereas the decline in CD4 cell count in patients of African ancestry was considerably slower than in patients of other ethnicity. When ethnic groups were studied separately, there was evidence for slower declines in CD4 cell count in viral subtypes C, and possibly A and G, compared with viral subtype B in patients of African ancestry but not among patients of other ethnicities, suggesting an interaction between subtype and ethnicity.

INTERPRETATION

Ethnicity is a major determinant of CD4 cell count decline; viral subtype differences may have existed but were small compared with the effect of ethnicity and were most apparent in patients of African ancestry. In developing countries, slower CD4 cell count declines among individuals of African descent may translate to a longer asymptomatic phase and increase the opportunity for HIV transmission.

Increase in CD4 count among new enrollees in HIV care in the modern antiretroviral therapy era

BACKGROUND

Earlier HIV diagnosis and engagement in care improve outcomes and is cost effective, as a result, in 2006, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revised the HIV-screening guidelines. We sought to determine whether the CD4 count (CD4) at presentation, a surrogate for time to presentation, increased during the study period. Our a priori hypothesis was that the CD4 at presentation increased during the study period, particularly after the CDC guideline revision.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study and analyzed data from the HIV Research Network, a consortium of 18 US clinics caring for HIV-infected patients. HIV-infected adults (≥18 years old) newly presenting for care between 2003 and 2011 were included in this study. Multivariable linear regression examined associations with CD4 at enrollment. Calendar year was modeled as a linear spline with a change in slope at 2008, allowing determination of the mean change in CD4 per year during 2003-2007 and 2008-2011.

RESULTS

Over 13,543 newly presenting subjects enrolled from 2003 to 2011. Median CD4 at enrollment rose from 285 to 317 cells per cubic millimeter between 2003-2007 and 2008-2011 (P < 0.001). After adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, gender, HIV risk factor, and clinic site, the mean increase in the CD4 count at presentation per year was 13.3 cells per cubic millimeter per year (95% confidence interval 6.4 to 20.1 cells per cubic millimeter per year) greater during 2008-2011 than during 2003-2007.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate a small, but statistically significant, increase in CD4 at presentation after the CDC guideline revision. More efforts are needed to decrease time to presentation to HIV care.

The undiagnosed HIV epidemic in France and its implications for HIV screening strategies

BACKGROUND

Describing the undiagnosed HIV-infected population is essential for guiding HIV screening policy, implementing interventions, and resource planning.

METHODS

We used French national HIV surveillance data and a back-calculation approach to estimate the number of undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals in France and the distribution of time since HIV infection among undiagnosed individuals. We also used data on CD4⁺ cell count decline to assess the CD4⁺ cell count distribution among undiagnosed individuals.

RESULTS

We estimated that 29,000 [95% confidence interval (CI): 24,200-33,900] individuals were living with undiagnosed HIV infection at the end of 2010. Of these, 28.7% (95% CI: 27.1-30.4) were infected less than a year ago, 16.4% (95% CI: 15.0-17.8) more than 5 years ago, and 59.6% (95% CI: 59.2-59.8) were eligible for antiretroviral treatment (CD4⁺ cell count less than 500 cells/μl) according to the 2010 French guidelines. Men represented 70.0% of the undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals and had lower CD4⁺ cell counts than women. The numbers of undiagnosed infections in MSM, non-French national heterosexuals, and French national heterosexuals were similar (9200, 9300, 10,000, respectively). However, because of differences in group size, undiagnosed HIV prevalence varied significantly between these groups (2.95, 0.36, 0.03%, respectively; P less than 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that many undiagnosed HIV-infected individuals were eligible for treatment and, thus, lack of HIV diagnosis is a lost chance for them; many more heterosexuals than MSM will need to be tested to find those undiagnosed; and universal screening of men may be cost-effective, especially in the areas most affected by the epidemic, such as the Paris region.

Antiretroviral treatment outcomes amongst older adults in a large multicentre cohort in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Increasing numbers of patients are starting antiretroviral treatment (ART) at advanced age or reaching advanced age while on ART. We compared baseline characteristics and ART outcomes of older adults (aged ≥55 years) vs. younger adults (aged 25-54 years) in routine care settings in South Africa.

METHODS

A multicentre cohort study of ART-naïve adults starting ART at 89 public sector facilities was conducted. Mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), immunological and virological outcomes until five years of ART were compared using competing-risks regression, generalised estimating equations and mixed-effects models.

RESULTS

4065 older adults and 86,006 younger adults were included. There were more men amongst older adults; 44.7% vs. 33.4%; RR = 1.34 (95% CI: 1.29-1.39). Mortality after starting ART was substantially higher amongst older adults, adjusted sub-hazard ratio (asHR) = 1.44 over 5 years (95% CI: 1.26-1.64), particularly for the period 7-60 months of treatment, asHR = 1.73 (95% CI: 1.44-2.10). LTFU was lower in older adults, asHR = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.78-0.97). Achievement of virological suppression was greater in older adults, adjusted odds ratio = 1.42 (95% CI: 1.23-1.64). The probabilities of viral rebound and confirmed virological failure were both lower in older adults, adjusted hazard ratios = 0.69 (95% CI: 0.56-0.85) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.47-0.89), respectively. The rate of CD4 cell recovery (amongst patients with continuous viral suppression) was 25 cells/6 months of ART (95% CI: 17.3-33.2) lower in older adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Although older adults had better virological outcomes and reduced LTFU, their higher mortality and slower immunological recovery warrant consideration of age-specific ART initiation criteria and management strategies.

Exploring the population-level impact of antiretroviral treatment: the influence of baseline intervention context

OBJECTIVE

To compare the potential population-level impact of expanding antiretroviral treatment (ART) in HIV epidemics concentrated among female sex workers (FSWs) and clients, with and without existing condom-based FSW interventions.

DESIGN

Mathematical model of heterosexual HIV transmission in south India.

METHODS

We simulated HIV epidemics in three districts to assess the 10-year impact of existing ART programs (ART eligibility at CD4 cell count ≤350) beyond that achieved with high condom use, and the incremental benefit of expanding ART by either increasing ART eligibility, improving access to care, or prioritizing ART expansion to FSWs/clients. Impact was estimated in the total population (including FSWs and clients).

RESULTS

In the presence of existing condom-based interventions, existing ART programs (medium-to-good coverage) were predicted to avert 11-28% of remaining HIV infections between 2014 and 2024. Increasing eligibility to all risk groups prevented an incremental 1-15% over existing ART programs, compared with 29-53% when maximizing access to all risk groups. If there was no condom-based intervention, and only poor ART coverage, then expanding ART prevented a larger absolute number but a smaller relative fraction of HIV infections for every additional person-year of ART. Across districts and baseline interventions, for every additional person-year of treatment, prioritizing access to FSWs was most efficient (and resource saving), followed by prioritizing access to FSWs and clients.

CONCLUSION

The relative and absolute benefit of ART expansion depends on baseline condom use, ART coverage, and epidemic size. In south India, maximizing FSWs' access to care, followed by maximizing clients' access are the most efficient ways to expand ART for HIV prevention, across baseline intervention context.

Duration of HIV-1 viral suppression on cessation of antiretroviral therapy in primary infection correlates with time on therapy

Objective

A minority of HIV-1 positive individuals treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) in primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) maintain viral suppression on stopping. Whether this is related to ART duration has not been explored.

Design

And Methods: Using SPARTAC trial data from individuals recruited within 6 months of seroconversion, we present an observational analysis investigating whether duration of ART was associated with post-treatment viraemic control. Kaplan-Meier estimates, logistic regression and Cox models were used.

Results

165 participants reached plasma viral loads (VL) <400 copies/ml at the time of stopping therapy (ART stop). After ART stop, 159 experienced confirmed VL ≥400 copies/ml during median (IQR) follow-up of 167 (108,199) weeks.

Most participants experienced VL rebound within 12 weeks from ART stop, however, there was a suggestion of a higher probability of remaining <400 copies/ml for those on ART >12 weeks compared to ≤12 weeks (p=0.061). Cumulative probabilities of remaining <400 copies/ml at 12, 52 and 104 weeks after ART stop were 21% (95%CI=13,30), 4% (1,9), and 4% (1,9) for ≤12 weeks ART, and 32% (22,42), 14% (7,22), and 5% (2,11) for >12 weeks.

In multivariable regression, ART for >12 weeks was independently associated with a lower probability of being ≥400 copies/ml within 12 weeks of ART stop (OR=0.11 (95%CI=0.03,0.34), p<0.001)). In Cox models of time to VL ≥400 after 12 weeks, we only found an association with female sex (OR=0.2, p=0.001).

Conclusion

Longer ART duration in PHI was associated with a higher probability of viral control after ART stop.

Trial Registration

Controlled-Trials.com 76742797 http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN76742797.

Impact of HIV-1 subtype on CD4 count at HIV seroconversion, rate of decline, and viral load set point in European seroconverter cohorts

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype may influence disease progression. We compared CD4 lymphocyte cell count levels at seroconversion, decline rates and viral load set point in individuals infected with different HIV-1 subtypes.

METHODS

We used data from the Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) collaboration, restricted to those infected since 1996, aged ≥15 years, and applied mixed effects models for CD4 cell count decline and median regression for viral load set point (mean level 6-24 months from seroconversion).

RESULTS

The analysis included 3364 seroconverters with known HIV-1 subtypes. Compared with subtype B, CD4 at seroconversion was significantly higher for subtype CRF01 and lower for subtype C. Subsequent CD4 decline was significantly slower for subtypes A and CRF02 and marginally slower for subtype C compared with B. Mean CD4 loss at 2 years of seroconversion for white men exposed through sex between men, aged 30-39 years, having seroconverted since 2006, enrolled within 6 months of seroconversion, and without acute infection was 88, 142, 100, 130, 103, and 167 cells/µL for subtypes A, B, C, CRF01_AE, CRF02_AG, and G, respectively. In adjusted analysis, median viral load set point and time to clinical AIDS/death did not differ significantly by subtype, although all subtypes, except C, tended to have lower levels compared with B.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-1 subtype significantly influences seroconversion CD4 cell levels and decline rates but not viral load set point. These findings may be helpful to HIV-positive individuals and their attending physicians in understanding disease progression.

Characterizing sexual histories of women before formal sex-work in south India from a cross-sectional survey: implications for HIV/STI prevention

Background

Interventions designed to prevent HIV and STIs in female sex-workers (FSWs) reach women after they formally enter the sex-trade. We aimed to characterize the pattern of sexual behaviour among FSWs from first-sex to when they identify as sex-workers (transition period) in a region with traditional (historically characterized by dedication into sex-work at first-sex) and non-traditional forms of sex-work.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 246 traditional and 765 non-traditional FSWs across three districts in Karnataka, India. We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression to profile FSWs most likely to engage in a commercial first-sex before identifying as a sex-worker. Sexual life-course patterns were distinguished using univariate and multivariate linear regression based on key events associated with length of transition period.

Results

Overall, 266 FSWs experienced a commercial first-sex, of whom 45.9% (95% CI: 38.2,53.7) continued a long-term relationship with the first partner. In adjusted analysis, traditional FSWs were more likely to experience a commercial first-sex (AOR 52.5, 95% CI: 27.4,100.7). The average transition time was 8.8 years (SD 3.9), but there was considerable variability between respondents. Among women who experienced a commercial first-sex, a slower transition was independently associated with non-traditional sex-work, the presence of long-term partnerships during the transition period, and ongoing partnerships at time of entry into sex-work. In the absence of a commercial first-sex, a faster transition was associated with traditional sex-work and the dissolution of long-term partnerships, while a slower transition was associated with the presence of long-term partnerships and widowhood. Only 18.5% (95% CI: 12.7,26.2) and 47.3% (95% CI: 32.7,62.3) of women reported ‘always’ condom use with their long-term and occasional partners during the transition period, respectively.

Conclusions

FSWs identify as sex-workers several years after becoming sexually active, even when the first-sex is commercial in nature. Long-term partnerships are common after a commercial first-sex, and are associated with a delay in formally entering the sex-trade. The findings call for a better understanding of HIV/STI risk before FSWs identify as sex-workers, and an adaptive programme to reach this period of vulnerability.