Upward Altitudinal Shifts in Habitat Suitability of Mountain Vipers since the Last Glacial Maximum

Predicting climate change impacts on the distribution of endemic fish Cyprinion muscatense in the Arabian Peninsula

Freshwater fishes are facing considerable threats in the Arabian Peninsula which is considered as a highly stressed region in the Middle East. It is predicted that northern Oman is likely to face decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature in coming decades. In this study, we focused on an endemic cyprinid fish Cyprinion muscatense, as a model to investigate impacts of climate change on the mountain fishes inhibiting in this arid region. This species is expected to be strongly affected by climate change because of its limited distribution range in a montane area surrounded by lowlands and sea, limiting the species in shift to other areas. We used an ensemble approach by considering two regressions-based species distribution modeling (SDM) algorithms: generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized additive models (GAM) to model the species habitat suitability and predict the impacts of climate change on the species habitat suitability. Based on the distribution models, the montane area located in northeastern Oman was identified as the most suitable habitat for this species. Our results indicate that, even under the minimum greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 2.6), climate change will produce a high reduction in its potential future habitats. According to the results of percent contribution, elevation and annual minimum temperature were the most important variables in predicting the species suitable habitats. Results also showed that only a small percentage of suitable habitats for the species within boundaries of protected areas. Therefore, the impact of climate change on the species appears particularly alarming. Although our study was restricted to a single cyprinid freshwater species, decreases in potential habitats are likely predicted for other cyprinid fish species restricted to the mountains of this region, suggesting severe consideration is needed for aquatic systems in future conservation planning, especially for endemic freshwater fishes.

Identifying the geographic distribution pattern of venomous snakes and regions of high snakebite risk in Iran

We describe species richness patterns of venomous snakes in Iran in order to produce snakebite risk prediction maps and identify gaps in regional health care centers capable of managing snakebites. We digitized distribution maps from the literature, Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), and the results of our own field studies of 24 terrestrial venomous snake species (including 4 endemic to Iran). Species richness patterns were associated with eight environmental factors. The variables have been extracted from the WorldClim dataset (bio12 = annual precipitation, bio15 = precipitation seasonality, bio17 = precipitation of the driest quarter, bio2 = mean diurnal range, bio3 = isothermality (bio2/bio7), bio4 = temperature seasonality, bio9 = mean temperature of the driest quarter and slope). Based on spatial analyses, species richness in Iran is highly affected by three environmental variables (bio12, 15, and 17) associated with precipitation. The relationship patterns among these predictors and species richness were strong and linear. The hotspot regions for venomous snakes species are concentrated on the western to southwestern and north to northeastern regions of Iran, which is partially consistent with the known Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot. Because of the high number of endemic species and climatic conditions on the Iranian Plateau, the venoms of snakes distributed in those areas may contain novel properties and components.

Late Pleistocene Altitudinal Segregation and Demography Define Future Climate Change Distribution of the Peromyscus mexicanus Species Group: Conservation Implications

Mountains harbor a significant number of the World's biodiversity, both on tropical and temperate regions. Notably, one crucial gap in conservation is the consideration of historical and contemporary patterns influencing differential distribution in small mammal mountain species and how climate change will affect their distribution and survival. The mice Peromyscus mexicanus species group is distributed across mountains in Guatemala-Chiapas and Central America, which experienced significant effects of glacial and interglacial cycles. We determined phylogeographic and demographic patterns of lowlands and highlands mountain lineages, revealing that the radiation of modern P. mexicanus lineages occurred during the Pleistocene (ca. 2.6 mya) along Nuclear Central America. In concert with climatic cycles and the distribution of habitats, lowland and highland lineages showed recent population size increase and decrease, respectively. We also estimated the current and future distribution ranges for six lineages, finding marked area size increase for two lineages for which vegetation type and distribution would facilitate migrating towards higher elevations. Contrastingly, three lineages showed range size decrease; their ecological requirements make them highly susceptible to future habitat loss. Our findings are clear evidence of the negative impacts of future climate change, while our ability to manage and conserve these vulnerable ecosystems and mountain species is contingent on our understanding of the implications of climate change on the distribution, ecology, and genetics of wildlife populations.

Identifying high snakebite risk area under climate change for community education and antivenom distribution

Snakebite is one of the largest risks from wildlife, however little is known about venomous snake distribution, spatial variation in snakebite risk, potential changes in snakebite risk pattern due to climate change, and vulnerable human population. As a consequence, management and prevention of snakebite is hampered by this lack of information. Here we used habitat suitability modeling for 10 medically important venomous snakes to identify high snakebite risk area under climate change in Iran. We identified areas with high snakebite risk in Iran and showed that snakebite risk will increase in some parts of the country. Our results also revealed that mountainous areas (Zagros, Alborz, Kopet-Dagh mountains) will experience highest changes in species composition. We underline that in order to improve snakebite management, areas which were identified with high snakebite risk in Iran need to be prioritized for the distribution of antivenom medication and awareness rising programs among vulnerable human population.

Medically important snakes and snakebite envenoming in Iran

Snakebite is a common health condition in Iran with a diverse snake fauna, especially in tropical southern and mountainous western areas of the country with plethora of snake species. The list of medically important snakes, circumstances and effects of their bite, and necessary medical care require critical appraisal and should be updated regularly. This study aims to review and map the distributions of medically important snake species of Iran, re-evaluate their taxonomy, review their venomics, describe the clinical effects of envenoming, and discuss medical management and treatment, including the use of antivenom. Nearly 350 published articles and 26 textbooks with information on venomous and mildly venomous snake species and snakebites of Iran, were reviewed, many in Persian (Farsi) language, making them relatively inaccessible to an international readership. This has resulted in a revised updated list of Iran's medically important snake species, with taxonomic revisions of some, compilation of their morphological features, remapping of their geographical distributions, and description of species-specific clinical effects of envenoming. Moreover, the antivenom manufactured in Iran is discussed, together with treatment protocols that have been developed for the hospital management of envenomed patients.

More hidden diversity in a cryptic species complex: a new subspecies of Leptideasinapis (Lepidoptera, Pieridae) from Northern Iran

A new subspecies of Leptideasinapis from Northern Iran, discovered by means of DNA barcoding, is described as Leptideasinapistabarestanassp. nov. The new subspecies is allopatric with respect to other populations of L.sinapis and is genetically distinct, appearing as a well-supported sister clade to all other populations in COI-based phylogenetic reconstructions. Details on karyotype, genitalia, ecology and behaviour for the new subspecies are given and a biogeographical speciation scenario is proposed.

MaxEnt brings comparable results when the input data are being completed; Model parameterization of four species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are practical tools to assess the habitat suitability of species with numerous applications in environmental management and conservation planning. The manipulation of the input data to deal with their spatial bias is one of the advantageous methods to enhance the performance of SDMs. However, the development of a model parameterization approach covering different SDMs to achieve well-performing models has rarely been implemented. We integrated input data manipulation and model tuning for four commonly-used SDMs: generalized linear model (GLM), gradient boosted model (GBM), random forest (RF), and maximum entropy (MaxEnt), and compared their predictive performance to model geographically imbalanced-biased data of a rare species complex of mountain vipers. Models were tuned up based on a range of model-specific parameters considering two background selection methods: random and background weighting schemes. The performance of the fine-tuned models was assessed based on recently identified localities of the species. The results indicated that although the fine-tuned version of all models shows great performance in predicting training data (AUC > 0.9 and TSS > 0.5), they produce different results in classifying out-of-bag data. The GBM and RF with higher sensitivity of training data showed more different performances. The GLM, despite having high predictive performance for test data, showed lower specificity. It was only the MaxEnt model that showed high predictive performance and comparable results for identifying test data in both random and background weighting procedures. Our results highlight that while GBM and RF are prone to overfitting training data and GLM over-predict nonsampled areas MaxEnt is capable of producing results that are both predictable (extrapolative) and complex (interpolative). We discuss the assumptions of each model and conclude that MaxEnt could be considered as a practical method to cope with imbalanced-biased data in species distribution modeling approaches.

Biogeography of rodents in Iran: species richness, elevational distribution and their environmental correlates

Rodent biogeographic studies are disproportionately scarce in Iran, however, they are an ideal system to understand drivers of biodiversity distributions in the country. The aims of the present research are to determine (i) the pattern of rodent richness across the country, (ii) quantify their elevational distribution patterns, and (iii) explore the underlying mechanisms. To reach these goals, an updated species list was compiled based on the latest taxonomic revisions, published until December 2021. We mapped all 76 rodent species distributions to develop the first map of rodent richness in Iran. We furthermore investigated their elevational distribution patterns in the following four geographic regions based on 100 m intervals; the Zagros Mountains, north of Alborz Mountains, south of Alborz and Kopet-Dagh mountains, and central and east mountains. North-east of Iran, Zagros Mountains, Alborz Mountains, and northwestern of Iran showed the highest richness and were identified as biodiversity hotspots of rodents in the country. This study highlights the importance of past climate change as the key driver of rodent richness in Iran. We showed that rodents’ elevational distribution patterns differ among geographic regions. Areas and elevational zones with the highest species richness should be prioritized for the conservation planning of rodents in Iran.

East palearctic treefrog past and present habitat suitability using ecological niche models

Ecological niche modeling is a tool used to determine current potential species' distribution or habitat suitability models which can then be used to project suitable areas in time. Projections of suitability into past climates can identify locations of climate refugia, or areas with high climatic stability likely to contain the highest levels of genetic diversity and stable populations when climatic conditions are less suitable in other parts of the range. Modeling habitat suitability for closely related species in recent past can also reveal potential periods and regions of contact and possible admixture. In the east palearctic, there are five Dryophytes (Hylid treefrog) clades belonging to two groups: Dryophytes japonicus group: Clades A and B; and Dryophytes immaculatus group: Dryophytes immaculatus, Dryophytes flaviventris, and Dryophytes suweonensis. We used maximum entropy modeling to determine the suitable ranges of these five clades during the present and projected to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. We also calculated climatic stability for each clade to identify possible areas of climate refugia. Our models indicated suitable range expansion during the LGM for four clades with the exclusion of D. immaculatus. High climatic stability in our models corresponded to areas with the highest numbers of recorded occurrences in the present. The models produced here can additionally serve as baselines for models of suitability under climate change scenarios and indicate species ecological requirements.

Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shifts

This study explores the relationships between recent Iranian lizard species distributions and the observed climate, as well as potential future distributions of species. For this purpose, an ensemble of seven algorithms was used to forecast the distributions of 30 species for the recent and future (2070) based on the averages of 14 global climate models under optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios. Annual precipitation (n = 16) and annual mean temperature (n = 7) were identified as the most important variables in determining the distribution of 76.66% (23 out of 30) of the species. The consensus model predicts that the ranges of 83.33% of species (n = 25) have the potential to expand poleward at higher latitudes while preserving the majority of their recent distributions (except for four species). Furthermore, the ranges of the remaining species (n = 5) will be preserved at higher latitudes. However, they (n = 22) may contract slightly (n = 13) or excessively (n = 9) in the south of their distribution range at lower latitudes. These results indicate that species (N = 19) situated in mountainous areas such as the Zagros, Alborz, and Kopet Dagh may move or maintain their range at higher elevations as a result of future climate change. Finally, this study suggests that 30% of species (n = 9) may be threatened by future climate change and that they should be prioritized in conservation efforts.

First report of a confirmed case of Montivipera latifii (Latifi's viper) envenoming and a literature review of envenoming by Montivipera species

Latifi's viper (Montivipera latifii), also known as Lar Valley or Damavandi viper, is endemic to Iran. It has rarely been recorded, as it occurs in a highly-protected national park. In this first clinical report of a confirmed bite by this species, a teenage girl was bitten on the chin, causing rapidly-progressive swelling of the face and oropharyngeal mucosa. At a local hospital, a misleading history given by the patient's relatives of a wasp sting and inadequate inspection of the bite wound misled the physicians from making the correct diagnosis, resulting in a considerable delay in the administration of antivenom. This allowed the development of partial obstruction of the upper airway causing respiratory distress. After transfer to a tertiary hospital, attempts at endotracheal intubation failed, necessitating tracheostomy, but this was not implemented early enough to prevent her developing respiratory failure and losing consciousness. After she was stabilized, snakebite envenoming was diagnosed by a clinical toxicologist who observed two fang puncture marks on her chin. This was later confirmed when a snake, identified as M. latifii, was discovered at the room where the bite had occurred. Her facial swelling and ecchymosis, attributable to envenoming, were effectively controlled by high-dose antivenom therapy. However, she did not recover consciousness, remaining in a vegetative state. About three weeks after the bite, she died as an indirect result of hypoxic brain damage complicated by septicemia. Prompt diagnosis, relief of upper airway obstruction and timely antivenom therapy might have prevented this tragic fatal outcome.

Addressing the global snakebite crisis with geo-spatial analyses - Recent advances and future direction

Venomous snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that annually leads to hundreds of thousands of deaths or long-term physical and mental ailments across the developing world. Insufficient data on spatial variation in snakebite risk, incidence, human vulnerability, and accessibility of medical treatment contribute substantially to ineffective on-ground management. There is an urgent need to collect data, fill knowledge gaps and address on-ground management problems. The use of novel, and transdisciplinary approaches that take advantage of recent advances in spatio-temporal models, 'big data', high performance computing, and fine-scale spatial information can add value to snakebite management by strategically improving our understanding and mitigation capacity of snakebite. We review the background and recent advances on the topic of snakebite related geospatial analyses and suggest avenues for priority research that will have practical on-ground applications for snakebite management and mitigation. These include streamlined, targeted data collection on snake distributions, snakebites, envenomings, venom composition, health infrastructure, and antivenom accessibility along with fine-scale models of spatio-temporal variation in snakebite risk and incidence, intraspecific venom variation, and environmental change modifying human exposure. These measures could improve and 'future-proof' antivenom production methods, antivenom distribution and stockpiling systems, and human-wildlife conflict management practices, while simultaneously feeding into research on venom evolution, snake taxonomy, ecology, biogeography, and conservation.

Historic range dynamics in Kaiser's mountain newt (Neurergus kaiseri): Insights from phylogeographic analyses and species distribution modeling

Vulnerable Kaiser's mountain newt, Neurergus kaiseri, is endemic to highland streams, springs, and pools of the southwestern Zagros mountain, Iran. The present study aimed to use an integration of phylogeographical and species distribution modeling (SDM) approaches to provide new insights into the evolutionary history of the species throughout Quaternary climate oscillations. The phylogeographical analysis was followed by analyzing two mitochondrial DNA (mt-DNA) markers including 127 control region (D-loop) and 72 NADH dehydrogenase 2 (ND2) sequences from 15 populations in the entire species range that were obtained from GenBank. Potential recent and past distribution (the Last Glacial Maximum, LGM, 21 Kya and the Mid-Holocene, 6 Kya) reconstructed by ensemble SDM using nine algorithms with CCSM4, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-P models. N. kaiseri displayed two distinct lineages in the northern and southern regions that diverged in the Early-Pleistocene. The demographics analysis showed signs of a slight increase in effective population size for both northern and southern populations in the Mid-Pleistocene. Biogeography analysis showed that both vicariance and dispersal events played an important role in the formation of recent species distribution of N. kaiseri. Based on SDM projection onto paleoclimatic data, N. kaiseri displayed a scenario of past range expansion that followed by postglacial contraction. The models showed that the distribution range of the species may have shifted to a lower altitude during LGM while with amelioration of climatic during Mid-Holocene to recent conditions caused the species to shift to the higher altitude. The findings of the current study support the hypothesis that the Zagros mountains​ may be acting as climatic refugia and play an important role in the protection of isolated populations during climate oscillations.

Reptile species richness associated to ecological and historical variables in Iran

Spatial gradients of species richness can be shaped by the interplay between historical and ecological factors. They might interact in particularly complex ways in heterogeneous mountainous landscapes with strong climatic and geological contrasts. We mapped the distribution of 171 lizard species to investigate species richness patterns for all species (171), diurnal species (101), and nocturnal species (70) separately. We related species richness with the historical (past climate change, mountain uplifting) and ecological variables (climate, topography and vegetation). We found that assemblages in the Western Zagros Mountains, north eastern and north western parts of Central Iranian Plateau have the highest number of lizard species. Among the investigated variables, annual mean temperature explained the largest variance for all species (10%) and nocturnal species (31%). For diurnal species, temperature change velocity shows strongest explained variance in observed richness pattern (26%). Together, our results reveal that areas with annual temperature of 15–20 °C, which receive 400–600 mm precipitation and experienced moderate level of climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have highest number of species. Documented patterns of our study provide a baseline for understanding the potential effect of ongoing climate change on lizard diversity in Iran.

Applying species distribution models in public health research by predicting snakebite risk using venomous snakes' habitat suitability as an indicating factor

Snakebite envenoming is an important public health problem in Iran, despite its risk not being quantified. This study aims to use venomous snakes' habitat suitability as an indicator of snakebite risk, to identify high-priority areas for snakebite management across the country. Thus, an ensemble approach using five distribution modelling methods: Generalized Boosted Models, Generalized Additive Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling, Generalized Linear Models, and Random Forest was applied to produce a spatial snakebite risk model for Iran. To achieve this, four venomous snakes' habitat suitability (Macrovipera lebetinus, Echis carinatus, Pseudocerastes persicus and Naja oxiana) were modelled and then multiplied. These medically important snakes are responsible for the most snakebite incidents in Iran. Multiplying habitat suitability models of the four snakes showed that the northeast of Iran (west of Khorasan-e-Razavi province) has the highest snakebite risk in the country. In addition, villages that were at risk of envenoming from the four snakes were identified. Results revealed that 51,112 villages are at risk of envenoming from M. lebetinus, 30,339 from E. carinatus, 51,657 from P. persicus and 12,124 from N. oxiana. Precipitation seasonality was identified as the most important variable influencing distribution of the P. persicus, E. carinatus and M. lebetinus in Iran. Precipitation of the driest quarter was the most important predictor of suitable habitats of the N. oxiana. Since climatic variables play an important role in shaping the distribution of the four venomous snakes in Iran, thus their distribution may alter with changing climate. This paper demonstrates application of species distribution modelling in public health research and identified potential snakebite risk areas in Iran by using venomous snakes' habitat suitability models as an indicating factor. Results of this study can be used in snakebite and human-snake conflict management in Iran. We recommend increasing public awareness of snakebite envenoming and education of local people in areas which identified with the highest snakebite risk.

Exploring snake occurrence records: Spatial biases and marginal gains from accessible social media

A species' distribution provides fundamental information on: climatic niche, biogeography, and conservation status. Species distribution models often use occurrence records from biodiversity databases, subject to spatial and taxonomic biases. Deficiencies in occurrence data can lead to incomplete species distribution estimates. We can incorporate other data sources to supplement occurrence datasets. The general public is creating (via GPS-enabled cameras to photograph wildlife) incidental occurrence records that may present an opportunity to improve species distribution models. We investigated (1) occurrence data of a cryptic group of animals: non-marine snakes, in a biodiversity database (Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF)) and determined (2) whether incidental occurrence records extracted from geo-tagged social media images (Flickr) could improve distribution models for 18 tropical snake species. We provide R code to search for and extract data from images using Flickr's API. We show the biodiversity database's 302,386 records disproportionately originate from North America, Europe and Oceania (250,063, 82.7%), with substantial gaps in tropical areas that host the highest snake diversity. North America, Europe and Oceania averaged several hundred records per species; whereas Asia, Africa and South America averaged less than 35 per species. Occurrence density showed similar patterns; Asia, Africa and South America have roughly ten-fold fewer records per 100 km2than other regions. Social media provided 44,687 potential records. However, including them in distribution models only marginally impacted niche estimations; niche overlap indices were consistently over 0.9. Similarly, we show negligible differences in Maxent model performance between models trained using GBIF-only and Flickr-supplemented datasets. Model performance appeared dependent on species, rather than number of occurrences or training dataset. We suggest that for tropical snakes, accessible social media currently fails to deliver appreciable benefits for estimating species distributions; but due to the variation between species and the rapid growth in social media data, may still be worth considering in future contexts.

Conservation Below the Species Level: Suitable Evolutionarily Significant Units among Mountain Vipers (the Montivipera raddei complex) in Iran

Northern and western mountains of Iran are among the most important biodiversity and endemism hot spots for reptiles in the Middle East. Among herpetofauna, the montivipers represent an emblematic and fragmented endemic group for which estimating their level of genetic differentiation and defining conservation priorities is urgently needed. Here, we present the most comprehensive phylogenetic study on the Montivipera raddei species group comprising all 5 known taxa, among which 3 are endemic to Iran. Based on 2 mitochondrial genes, phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses revealed 3 major lineages each presenting very contrasting distribution areas. The Iranian montivipers are highly structured in clades showing low genetic diversity and corresponding to high altitude summits. Molecular dating revealed the role of Quaternary paleo-climatic oscillations and altitudinal movements of montivipers in shaping genetic diversity and differentiation of these sky-island taxa. In addition, the best scenario of historical biogeography allowed identifying 3 possible refugial areas in Iran most likely arising by vicariance. Based on our mitochondrial results and pending additional data, we recognize 3 candidate species among the M. raddei complex: M. raddei, Montivipera latifii, and Montivipera kuhrangica that are coherent with their geographical distribution. We propose that the most appropriate evolutionary significant units for conservation of the montivipers are represented by 13 units among which 6 are recognized as high priority. Finally, we suggest some recommendations to the IUCN as well as to the Iranian conservation policies with respect to conservation prioritization.

Extinction risks of a Mediterranean neo-endemism complex of mountain vipers triggered by climate change

Climate change is among the most important drivers of biodiversity decline through shift or shrinkage in suitable habitat of species. Mountain vipers of the genus Montivipera are under extreme risk from climate changes given their evolutionary history and geographic distribution. In this study, we divided all Montivipera species into three phylogenetic-geographic Montivipera clades (PGMC; Bornmuelleri, Raddei and Xanthina) and applied an ensemble ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach under different climatic scenarios to assess changes in projected suitable habitats of these species. Based on the predicted range losses, we assessed the projected extinction risk of the species relative to IUCN Red List Criteria. Our result revealed a strong decline in suitable habitats for all PGMCs (63.8%, 79.3% and 96.8% for Xanthina, Raddei and Bornmuelleri, respectively, by 2070 and under 8.5 RCP scenario) with patterns of altitudinal range shifts in response to projected climate change. We found that the mountains close to the Mediterranean Sea are exposed to the highest threats in the future (84.6 ± 9.1 percent range loss). We also revealed that disjunct populations of Montivipera will be additionally highly isolated and fragmented in the future. We argue that leveraging climate niche projections into the risk assessment provides the opportunity to implement IUCN criteria and better assess forthcoming extinction risks of species.

Evolutionary history and postglacial colonization of an Asian pit viper (Gloydius halys caucasicus) into Transcaucasia revealed by phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses

It has been generally acknowledged that glacial climates at the time of the Pleistocene altered the patterns of species distributions, prompting latitudinal and altitudinal distribution shifts in several species, including poikilothermic species commonly known for their thermal sensitivity. However, the historical phylogeographic patterns of such species have remained largely unknown. Here, we present the historical biogeographic, phylogenetic, and phylogeographic relationships of the Caucasian pit viper, G. h. caucasicus, based on two mtDNA (cyt b and ND4) and one nDNA (c-mos) genes. This pit viper represents the westernmost member of the Crotalinae subfamily in the Palearctic and occurs in a variety of habitats, from 30 m to 3,000 m above sea level. In Iran, it is distributed on the northern and southern slopes of the Alborz Mountains, rendering it a target for phylogenetic and phylogeographic studies of a terrestrial poikilothermic animal. Our study identified four Iranian lineages of G. h. caucasicus along the northeastern to northwestern slopes of the Alborz Mountains and southern Azerbaijan (Talysh Mountains). Diversification of the Iranian lineages highlights population expansion and subsequent isolation into four plausible refugial areas during the Quaternary paleo-climatic oscillations, confirmed by our molecular dating and historical biogeographic analyses. The results of coalescence-based simulations support the incursion of the species from northeastern Iran to the western end of the Alborz, and then toward Transcaucasia via two directions: northern and southern slopes of the Alborz Mountains. Furthermore, our results clearly implied that G. h. caucasicus should be elevated to species rank and further referred to as G. caucasicus (Nikolsky, 1916).

Forthcoming risk of Prosopis juliflora global invasion triggered by climate change: implications for environmental monitoring and risk assessment

Climate is a determinant factor in species distribution and climate change will affect the species abilities to occupy geographic regions. Prosopis juliflora is one of the most problematic invasive species and its biological invasion causes various negative effects in tropical, arid, and semi-arid regions of the world. As eradication efforts subsequent to the establishment of an alien invasive species are costly and time-consuming, assessing patterns of the introduction of an invasive species to new regions is among the most cost-effective means of monitoring and management of natural ecosystems. In this study by using the concept of species distribution modeling (SDM) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of P. juliflora has been assessed at a global scale. Bioclimatic variables in current condition and 2050 regarding two global circulation models (GCM) and two climate change scenarios were considered as explanatory variables. Our results showed that annual mean temperature (BIO1), annual precipitation (BIO12), and temperature mean diurnal range (BIO2) represented more than 87% of the variations in the model, and with an AUC of 0.854 and TSS of 0.51, the model showed a good predictive performance. Our results indicate that on a global scale, suitable ranges for P. juliflora increase across all the GCM and RCP scenarios. In a global scale, Mediterranean Basin, Middle East, and North America are regions with the highest risk of range expansion in the future. Regarding the negative impacts of P. juliflora on structure and function of natural habitats in the invaded areas, findings of this study could be considered as a warning appliance for the environmental monitoring of the regions highly sensitive to the global invasion of the species. We suggest that assessing impacts of climate change on the global distribution of the invasive species could be used as an efficient tool to implement broad-scale and priority-setting monitoring programs in natural ecosystems.