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Wariri O, Utazi CE, Okomo U, Sowe A, Sogur M, Fofanna S, Ezeani E, Saidy L, Sarwar G, Dondeh BL, Murray KA, Grundy C, Kampmann B. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the coverage and timeliness of routine childhood vaccinations in the Gambia, 2015-2021. BMJ Glob Health 2023; 8:e014225. [PMID: 38148110 PMCID: PMC10753753 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014225] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2023] [Accepted: 12/10/2023] [Indexed: 12/28/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread morbidity and mortality and resulted in the biggest setback in routine vaccinations in three decades. Data on the impact of the pandemic on immunisation in Africa are limited, in part, due to low-quality routine or administrative data. This study examined coverage and timeliness of routine childhood immunisation during the pandemic in The Gambia, a country with an immunisation system considered robust. METHODS We obtained prospective birth cohort data of 57 286 children in over 300 communities in two health and demographic surveillance system sites, including data from the pre-pandemic period (January 2015-February 2020) and the three waves of the pandemic period (March 2020-December 2021). We determined monthly coverage and timeliness (early and delayed) of the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine (HepB0) and the first dose of pentavalent vaccine (Penta1) during the different waves of the pandemic relative to the pre-pandemic period. We implemented a binomial interrupted time-series regression model. RESULT We observed no significant change in the coverage of HepB0 and Penta1 vaccinations from the pre-pandemic period up until the periods before the peaks of the first and second waves of the pandemic in 2020. However, there was an increase in HepB0 coverage before as well as after the peak of the third wave in 2021 compared with the pre-pandemic period (pre-third wave peak OR = 1.83, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.14; post-third wave period OR=2.20, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.92). There was some evidence that vaccination timeliness changed during specific periods of the pandemic. Early Penta1 vaccination decreased by 70% (OR=0.30, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.78) in the period before the second wave, and delayed HepB0 vaccination decreased by 47% (OR=0.53, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.97) after the peak of the third wave in 2021. CONCLUSION Despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, The Gambia's routine vaccination programme has defied the setbacks witnessed in other settings and remained resilient, with coverage increasing and timeliness improving during the second and third waves. These findings highlight the importance of having adequate surveillance systems to monitor the impact of large shocks to vaccination coverage and timeliness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oghenebrume Wariri
- Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Vaccine Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Chigozie Edson Utazi
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
- Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, , University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
| | - Uduak Okomo
- Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
- MARCH Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Alieu Sowe
- Expanded Programme on Immunization, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Malick Sogur
- Expanded Programme on Immunization, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Sidat Fofanna
- Expanded Programme on Immunization, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Esu Ezeani
- Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), MRC Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Lamin Saidy
- Data Management & Architecture, MRC Unit The Gambia a London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Golam Sarwar
- Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), MRC Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Bai-Lamin Dondeh
- Data Management & Architecture, MRC Unit The Gambia a London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Kris A Murray
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, MRC Unit The Gambia at The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Chris Grundy
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Beate Kampmann
- Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
- Vaccine Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Global Health, Charité Universitatsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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Romanello M, Napoli CD, Green C, Kennard H, Lampard P, Scamman D, Walawender M, Ali Z, Ameli N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Beggs PJ, Belesova K, Berrang Ford L, Bowen K, Cai W, Callaghan M, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chambers J, Cross TJ, van Daalen KR, Dalin C, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Dominguez-Salas P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Freyberg C, Gasparyan O, Gordon-Strachan G, Graham H, Gunther SH, Hamilton I, Hang Y, Hänninen R, Hartinger S, He K, Heidecke J, Hess JJ, Hsu SC, Jamart L, Jankin S, Jay O, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kinney P, Kniveton D, Kouznetsov R, Larosa F, Lee JKW, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Lotto Batista M, Lowe R, Odhiambo Sewe M, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McMichael C, Mi Z, Milner J, Minor K, Minx JC, Mohajeri N, Momen NC, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Obradovich N, O'Hare MB, Oliveira C, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pega F, Pershing A, Rabbaniha M, Rickman J, Robinson EJZ, Rocklöv J, Salas RN, Semenza JC, Sherman JD, Shumake-Guillemot J, Silbert G, Sofiev M, Springmann M, Stowell JD, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Thompson R, Tonne C, Treskova M, Trinanes JA, Wagner F, Warnecke L, Whitcombe H, Winning M, Wyns A, Yglesias-González M, Zhang S, Zhang Y, Zhu Q, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A. The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms. Lancet 2023; 402:2346-2394. [PMID: 37977174 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(23)01859-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2023] [Revised: 08/07/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Claudia di Napoli
- School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Carole Green
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Harry Kennard
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Daniel Scamman
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maria Walawender
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Zakari Ali
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Nadia Ameli
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK
| | - Paul J Beggs
- School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | | | | | - Kathryn Bowen
- School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Max Callaghan
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
| | - Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Troy J Cross
- Heat and Health Research Incubator, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | | | - Carole Dalin
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- International Development Department, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Foundation, Lecce, Italy
| | - Michael Davies
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Robert Dubrow
- School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Matthew Eckelman
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Chris Freyberg
- Department of Information Systems, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
| | - Olga Gasparyan
- Department of Political Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, USA
| | | | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Samuel H Gunther
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Ian Hamilton
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Yun Hang
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | | | - Stella Hartinger
- Carlos Vidal Layseca School of Public Health and Management, Cayetano Heredia Pervuvian University, Lima, Peru
| | - Kehan He
- Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK
| | - Julian Heidecke
- Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jeremy J Hess
- Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Louis Jamart
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Slava Jankin
- Centre for AI in Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Ollie Jay
- Heat and Health Research Incubator, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Patrick Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Dominic Kniveton
- School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton and Hove, UK
| | | | - Francesca Larosa
- Engineering Mechanics, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jason K W Lee
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Bruno Lemke
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Yang Liu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | | | - Rachel Lowe
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Barcelona, Spain
| | | | - Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy McAllister
- Environmental Studies Program, Denison University, Granville, OH, USA
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Zhifu Mi
- Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kelton Minor
- Data Science Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Jan C Minx
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
| | - Nahid Mohajeri
- Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK
| | - Natalie C Momen
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Department of Community and Family Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Karyn Morrissey
- Department of Technology Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
| | | | - Kris A Murray
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Tara Neville
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department for Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | - Megan B O'Hare
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Camile Oliveira
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Matthias Otto
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Fereidoon Owfi
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olivia Pearman
- Center for Science and Technology Policy, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Frank Pega
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | | | - Jamie Rickman
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Elizabeth J Z Robinson
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Renee N Salas
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Jodi D Sherman
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | | | - Grant Silbert
- Melbourne Medical School, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | - Marco Springmann
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | | | - Cathryn Tonne
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marina Treskova
- Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Joaquin A Trinanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | - Fabian Wagner
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Laura Warnecke
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Hannah Whitcombe
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Matthew Winning
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Arthur Wyns
- Melbourne Climate Futures, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Marisol Yglesias-González
- Centro Latinoamericano de Excelencia en Cambio Climatico y Salud, Cayetano Heredia Pervuvian University, Lima, Peru
| | - Shihui Zhang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Ying Zhang
- School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Qiao Zhu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Department of Experimental and Translational Medicine and Division of Medicine, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
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Wariri O, Utazi CE, Okomo U, Metcalf CJE, Sogur M, Fofana S, Murray KA, Grundy C, Kampmann B. Mapping the timeliness of routine childhood vaccination in The Gambia: A spatial modelling study. Vaccine 2023; 41:5696-5705. [PMID: 37563051 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.08.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2023] [Revised: 07/29/2023] [Accepted: 08/01/2023] [Indexed: 08/12/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Timeliness of routine vaccination shapes childhood infection risk and thus is an important public health metric. Estimates of indicators of the timeliness of vaccination are usually produced at the national or regional level, which may conceal epidemiologically relevant local heterogeneities and makeitdifficultto identify pockets of vulnerabilities that could benefit from targeted interventions. Here, we demonstrate the utility of geospatial modelling techniques in generating high-resolution maps of the prevalence of delayed childhood vaccination in The Gambia. To guide local immunisation policy and prioritize key interventions, we also identified the districts with a combination of high estimated prevalence and a significant population of affected infants. METHODS We used the birth dose of the hepatitis-B vaccine (HepB0), third-dose of the pentavalent vaccine (PENTA3), and the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) as examples to map delayed vaccination nationally at a resolution of 1 × 1-km2 pixel. We utilized cluster-level childhood vaccination data from The Gambia 2019-20 Demographic and Health Survey. We adopted a fully Bayesian geostatistical model incorporating publicly available geospatial covariates to aid predictive accuracy. The model was implemented using the integrated nested Laplace approximation-stochastic partial differential equation (INLA-SPDE) approach. RESULTS We found significant subnational heterogeneity in delayed HepB0, PENTA3 and MCV1 vaccinations. Specificdistricts in the central and eastern regions of The Gambia consistentlyexhibited the highest prevalence of delayed vaccination, while the coastal districts showed alower prevalence forallthree vaccines. We also found that districts in the eastern, central, as well as in coastal parts of The Gambia had a combination of high estimated prevalence of delayed HepB0, PENTA3 and MCV1 and a significant population of affected infants. CONCLUSIONS Our approach provides decision-makers with a valuable tool to better understand local patterns of untimely childhood vaccination and identify districts where strengthening vaccine delivery systems could have the greatest impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oghenebrume Wariri
- Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia a London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, Gambia; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Vaccine Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
| | - Chigozie Edson Utazi
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
| | - Uduak Okomo
- Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia a London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, Gambia; MARCH Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - C Jessica E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Malick Sogur
- Expanded Programme on Immunization, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, The Gambia, Banjul, Gambia
| | - Sidat Fofana
- Expanded Programme on Immunization, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, The Gambia, Banjul, Gambia
| | - Kris A Murray
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, MRC Unit The Gambia at The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, Gambia
| | - Chris Grundy
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Beate Kampmann
- Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia a London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, Gambia; Vaccine Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Global Health, Charité Universitatsmedizin, Berlin, Germany
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Wariri O, Utazi CE, Okomo U, Sogur M, Murray KA, Grundy C, Fofanna S, Kampmann B. Timeliness of routine childhood vaccination among 12-35 months old children in The Gambia: Analysis of national immunisation survey data, 2019-2020. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0288741. [PMID: 37478124 PMCID: PMC10361478 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288741] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 07/03/2023] [Indexed: 07/23/2023] Open
Abstract
The Gambia's routine childhood vaccination programme is highly successful, however, many vaccinations are delayed, with potential implications for disease outbreaks. We adopted a multi-dimensional approach to determine the timeliness of vaccination (i.e., timely, early, delayed, and untimely interval vaccination). We utilised data for 3,248 children from The Gambia 2019-2020 Demographic and Health Survey. Nine tracer vaccines administered at birth and at two, three, four, and nine months of life were included. Timeliness was defined according to the recommended national vaccination windows and reported as both categorical and continuous variables. Routine coverage was high (above 90%), but also a high rate of untimely vaccination. First-dose pentavalent vaccine (PENTA1) and oral polio vaccine (OPV1) had the highest timely coverage that ranged from 71.8% (95% CI = 68.7-74.8%) to 74.4% (95% CI = 71.7-77.1%). Delayed vaccination was the commonest dimension of untimely vaccination and ranged from 17.5% (95% CI = 14.5-20.4%) to 91.1% (95% CI = 88.9-93.4%), with median delays ranging from 11 days (IQR = 5, 19.5 days) to 28 days (IQR = 11, 57 days) across all vaccines. The birth-dose of Hepatitis B vaccine had the highest delay and this was more common in the 24-35 months age group (91.1% [95% CI = 88.9-93.4%], median delays = 17 days [IQR = 10, 28 days]) compared to the 12-23 months age-group (84.9% [95% CI = 81.9-87.9%], median delays = 16 days [IQR = 9, 26 days]). Early vaccination was the least common and ranged from 4.9% (95% CI = 3.2-6.7%) to 10.7% (95% CI = 8.3-13.1%) for all vaccines. The Gambia's childhood immunization system requires urgent implementation of effective strategies to reduce untimely vaccination in order to optimize its quality, even though it already has impressive coverage rates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oghenebrume Wariri
- Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Vaccine Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Chigozie Edson Utazi
- WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
- Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
| | - Uduak Okomo
- Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
- MARCH Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Malick Sogur
- Expanded Programme on Immunization, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Kris A. Murray
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, MRC Unit The Gambia at The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Chris Grundy
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sidat Fofanna
- Expanded Programme on Immunization, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Beate Kampmann
- Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
- Centre for Global Health, Charite Universitatsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
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Saager ES, Iwamura T, Jucker T, Murray KA. Deforestation for oil palm increases microclimate suitability for the development of the disease vector Aedes albopictus. Sci Rep 2023; 13:9514. [PMID: 37308504 PMCID: PMC10260943 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-35452-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2022] [Accepted: 05/18/2023] [Indexed: 06/14/2023] Open
Abstract
A major trade-off of land-use change is the potential for increased risk of infectious diseases, a.o. through impacting disease vector life-cycles. Evaluating the public health implications of land-use conversions requires spatially detailed modelling linking land-use to vector ecology. Here, we estimate the impact of deforestation for oil palm cultivation on the number of life-cycle completions of Aedes albopictus via its impact on local microclimates. We apply a recently developed mechanistic phenology model to a fine-scaled (50-m resolution) microclimate dataset that includes daily temperature, rainfall and evaporation. Results of this combined model indicate that the conversion from lowland rainforest to plantations increases suitability for A. albopictus development by 10.8%, moderated to 4.7% with oil palm growth to maturity. Deforestation followed by typical plantation planting-maturation-clearance-replanting cycles is predicted to create pulses of high development suitability. Our results highlight the need to explore sustainable land-use scenarios that resolve conflicts between agricultural and human health objectives.
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Affiliation(s)
- E S Saager
- Centre for Translational Immunology, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
| | - T Iwamura
- Department F.-A. Forel for Aquatic and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - T Jucker
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - K A Murray
- MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK
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Charnley GEC, Yennan S, Ochu C, Kelman I, Gaythorpe KAM, Murray KA. Cholera past and future in Nigeria: Are the Global Task Force on Cholera Control's 2030 targets achievable? PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011312. [PMID: 37126498 PMCID: PMC10174485 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Revised: 05/11/2023] [Accepted: 04/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/02/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding and continually assessing the achievability of global health targets is key to reducing disease burden and mortality. The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) Roadmap aims to reduce cholera deaths by 90% and eliminate the disease in twenty countries by 2030. The Roadmap has three axes focusing on reporting, response and coordination. Here, we assess the achievability of the GTFCC targets in Nigeria and identify where the three axes could be strengthened to reach and exceed these goals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Using cholera surveillance data from Nigeria, cholera incidence was calculated and used to model time-varying reproduction number (R). A best fit random forest model was identified using R as the outcome variable and several environmental and social covariates were considered in the model, using random forest variable importance and correlation clustering. Future scenarios were created (based on varying degrees of socioeconomic development and emission reductions) and used to project future cholera transmission, nationally and sub-nationally to 2070. The projections suggest that significant reductions in cholera cases could be achieved by 2030, particularly in the more developed southern states, but increases in cases remain a possibility. Meeting the 2030 target, nationally, currently looks unlikely and we propose a new 2050 target focusing on reducing regional inequities, while still advocating for cholera elimination being achieved as soon as possible. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE The 2030 targets could potentially be reached by 2030 in some parts of Nigeria, but more effort is needed to reach these targets at a national level, particularly through access and incentives to cholera testing, sanitation expansion, poverty alleviation and urban planning. The results highlight the importance of and how modelling studies can be used to inform cholera policy and the potential for this to be applied in other contexts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gina E C Charnley
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sebastian Yennan
- Surveillance and Epidemiology Department/IM Cholera, Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Chinwe Ochu
- Surveillance and Epidemiology Department/IM Cholera, Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway
| | - Katy A M Gaythorpe
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Kris A Murray
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
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7
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Rawson T, Doohan P, Hauck K, Murray KA, Ferguson N. Climate change and communicable diseases in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Epidemics 2023; 42:100667. [PMID: 36652872 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100667] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2022] [Revised: 12/05/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2023] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
A review of the extant literature reveals the extent to which the spread of communicable diseases will be significantly impacted by climate change. Specific research into how this will likely be observed in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is, however, greatly lacking. This report summarises the unique public health challenges faced by the GCC countries in the coming century, and outlines the need for greater investment in public health research and disease surveillance to better forecast the imminent epidemiological landscape. Significant data gaps currently exist regarding vector occurrence, spatial climate measures, and communicable disease case counts in the GCC - presenting an immediate research priority for the region. We outline policy work necessary to strengthen public health interventions, and to facilitate evidence-driven mitigation strategies. Such research will require a transdisciplinary approach, utilising existing cross-border public health initiatives, to ensure that such investigations are well-targeted and effectively communicated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Rawson
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Patrick Doohan
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Katharina Hauck
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Kris A Murray
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Atlantic Boulevard, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Neil Ferguson
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
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8
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Goldstein E, Erinjery JJ, Martin G, Kasturiratne A, Ediriweera DS, Somaweera R, de Silva HJ, Diggle P, Lalloo DG, Murray KA, Iwamura T. Climate change maladaptation for health: Agricultural practice against shifting seasonal rainfall affects snakebite risk for farmers in the tropics. iScience 2023; 26:105946. [PMID: 36818294 PMCID: PMC9932500 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.105946] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2022] [Revised: 12/15/2022] [Accepted: 01/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Snakebite affects more than 1.8 million people annually. Factors explaining snakebite variability include farmers' behaviors, snake ecology and climate. One unstudied issue is how farmers' adaptation to novel climates affect their health. Here we examined potential impacts of adaptation on snakebite using individual-based simulations, focusing on strategies meant to counteract major crop yield decline because of changing rainfall in Sri Lanka. For rubber cropping, adaptation led to a 33% increase in snakebite incidence per farmer work hour because of work during risky months, but a 17% decrease in total annual snakebites because of decreased labor in plantations overall. Rice farming adaptation decreased snakebites by 16%, because of shifting labor towards safer months, whereas tea adaptation led to a general increase. These results indicate that adaptation could have both a positive and negative effect, potentially intensified by ENSO. Our research highlights the need for assessing adaptation strategies for potential health maladaptations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eyal Goldstein
- School of Zoology, Department of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Ecosystem Modeling, University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany
| | - Joseph J. Erinjery
- School of Zoology, Department of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Department of Zoology, Kannur University, Kannur, India
| | - Gerardo Martin
- Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores unidad Mérida, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Yucatán, México
| | - Anuradhani Kasturiratne
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Kelaniya, Kelaniya, Sri Lanka
| | | | - Ruchira Somaweera
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
| | | | - Peter Diggle
- CHICAS, Lancaster University Medical School, Lancaster, UK
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - David G. Lalloo
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Kris A. Murray
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, MRC Unit the Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Takuya Iwamura
- School of Zoology, Department of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Department F.-A. Forel for Aquatic and Environmental Science, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
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9
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Bonell A, Badjie J, Faal LB, Jammeh S, Ali Z, Hydara M, Davies A, Faal M, Ahmed AN, Hand W, Prentice AM, Murray KA, Scheelbeek P. Equity in planetary health education initiatives. Lancet Planet Health 2023; 7:e6-e7. [PMID: 36608950 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00142-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2022] [Accepted: 05/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Ana Bonell
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Jainaba Badjie
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Lamin B Faal
- The Ministry of Basic and Secondary Education, The Gambia Government, The Gambia
| | - Sariba Jammeh
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Zakari Ali
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | | | | | | | - Aliyu Nuhu Ahmed
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - William Hand
- Banjul American International School, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Andrew M Prentice
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Kris A Murray
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Pauline Scheelbeek
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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10
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Loh EH, Nava A, Murray KA, Olival KJ, Guimarães M, Shimabukuro J, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Fonseca FR, de Oliveira DBL, Campos ACDA, Durigon EL, Ferreira F, Struebig MJ, Daszak P. Prevalence of bat viruses associated with land-use change in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil. Front Cell Infect Microbiol 2022; 12:921950. [PMID: 36569210 PMCID: PMC9780684 DOI: 10.3389/fcimb.2022.921950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2022] [Accepted: 10/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Bats are critical to maintaining healthy ecosystems and many species are threatened primarily due to global habitat loss. Bats are also important hosts of a range of viruses, several of which have had significant impacts on global public health. The emergence of these viruses has been associated with land-use change and decreased host species richness. Yet, few studies have assessed how bat communities and the viruses they host alter with land-use change, particularly in highly biodiverse sites. Methods In this study, we investigate the effects of deforestation on bat host species richness and diversity, and viral prevalence and richness across five forested sites and three nearby deforested sites in the interior Atlantic Forest of southern Brazil. Nested-PCR and qPCR were used to amplify and detect viral genetic sequence from six viral families (corona-, adeno-, herpes-, hanta-, paramyxo-, and astro-viridae) in 944 blood, saliva and rectal samples collected from 335 bats. Results We found that deforested sites had a less diverse bat community than forested sites, but higher viral prevalence and richness after controlling for confounding factors. Viral detection was more likely in juvenile males located in deforested sites. Interestingly, we also found a significant effect of host bat species on viral prevalence indicating that viral taxa were detected more frequently in some species than others. In particular, viruses from the Coronaviridae family were detected more frequently in generalist species compared to specialist species. Discussion Our findings suggest that deforestation may drive changes in the ecosystem which reduce bat host diversity while increasing the abundance of generalist species which host a wider range of viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth H. Loh
- Division of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Transylvania University, Lexington, KY, United States,Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, United Kingdom,*Correspondence: Elizabeth H. Loh, ; Alessandra Nava,
| | - Alessandra Nava
- Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane – Fiocruz Amazônia, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil,*Correspondence: Elizabeth H. Loh, ; Alessandra Nava,
| | - Kris A. Murray
- MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, Gambia
| | | | - Moisés Guimarães
- Departamento de Recursos Naturais, Faculdade de Ciências Agronomicas, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, Brazil
| | - Juliana Shimabukuro
- Departamento de Medicina Veterinária Preventiva e Saúde Animal da Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax VA, United States
| | - Fernanda R. Fonseca
- Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane – Fiocruz Amazônia, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil
| | | | | | - Edison L. Durigon
- Departamento de Microbiologia, Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas-II, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Fernando Ferreira
- Departamento de Medicina Veterinária Preventiva e Saúde Animal da Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Matthew J. Struebig
- Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, United Kingdom
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11
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Bonell A, Sonko B, Badjie J, Samateh T, Saidy T, Sosseh F, Sallah Y, Bajo K, Murray KA, Hirst J, Vicedo-Cabrera A, Prentice AM, Maxwell NS, Haines A. Environmental heat stress on maternal physiology and fetal blood flow in pregnant subsistence farmers in The Gambia, west Africa: an observational cohort study. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e968-e976. [PMID: 36495891 PMCID: PMC9756110 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00242-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2021] [Revised: 09/12/2022] [Accepted: 09/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Anthropogenic climate change has caused extreme temperatures worldwide, with data showing that sub-Saharan Africa is especially vulnerable to these changes. In sub-Saharan Africa, women comprise 50% of the agricultural workforce, often working throughout pregnancy despite heat exposure increasing the risk of adverse birth outcomes. In this study, we aimed to improve understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms responsible for the adverse health outcomes resulting from environmental heat stress in pregnant subsistence farmers. We also aimed to provide data to establish whether environmental heat stress also has physiological effects on the fetus. METHODS We conducted an observational cohort study in West Kiang, The Gambia, at the field station for the Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (named the MRC Keneba field station). Pregnant women who were aged 16 years or older and who were at <36 weeks' gestation of any gravida or parity were invited to participate in the study. Participants were eligible if they were involved in agricultural or related manual daily tasks of living. Participants were ineligible if they refused to provide consent, had multiple pregnancies (eg, if they had twins), were acutely unwell, or were diagnosed with pre-eclampsia or eclampsia. Heat stress was measured by wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and by using the universal thermal climate index (UTCI), and maternal heat strain was directly measured by modified physiological strain index calculated from heart rate and skin temperature. Outcome measures of fetal heart rate (FHR) and fetal strain (defined as a FHR >160 beats per min [bpm] or <115 bpm, or increase in umbilical artery resistance index) were measured at rest and during the working period. Multivariable repeated measure models (linear regression for FHR, and logistic regression for fetal strain) were used to evaluate the association of heat stress and heat strain with acute fetal strain. FINDINGS Between Aug 26, 2019, and March 27, 2020, 92 eligible participants were recruited to the study. Extreme heat exposure was frequent, with average exposures of WBGT of 27·2°C (SD 3·6°C) and UTCI equivalent temperature of 34·0°C (SD 3·7°C). The total effect of UTCI on fetal strain resulted in an odds ratio (OR) of 1·17 (95% CI 1·09-1·29; p<0·0001), with an adjusted direct effect of OR of 1·12 (1·03-1·21; p=0·010) with each 1°C increase in UTCI. The adjusted OR of maternal heat strain on fetal strain was 1·20 (1·01-1·43; p=0·038), using the UTCI model, with each unit increase. INTERPRETATION Data from our study show that decreasing maternal exposure to heat stress and heat strain is likely to reduce fetal strain, with the potential to reduce adverse birth outcomes. Further work that explores the association between heat stress and pregnancy outcomes in a variety of settings and populations is urgently needed to develop effective interventions. FUNDING The Wellcome Trust.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Bonell
- Medical Research Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Bakary Sonko
- Medical Research Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Jainaba Badjie
- Medical Research Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Tida Samateh
- Medical Research Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Tida Saidy
- Medical Research Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Fatou Sosseh
- Medical Research Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Yahya Sallah
- Medical Research Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Kebba Bajo
- Medical Research Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Kris A Murray
- Medical Research Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Jane Hirst
- Nuffield Department of Women's and Reproductive Health and the George Institute for Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Ana Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Andrew M Prentice
- Medical Research Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Neil S Maxwell
- Environmental Extremes Laboratory, University of Brighton, Eastbourne, UK
| | - Andy Haines
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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12
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Charnley GEC, Jean K, Kelman I, Gaythorpe KAM, Murray KA. Association between Conflict and Cholera in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Emerg Infect Dis 2022; 28:2472-2481. [PMID: 36417932 PMCID: PMC9707578 DOI: 10.3201/eid2812.212398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Cholera outbreaks contribute substantially to illness and death in low- and middle-income countries. Cholera outbreaks are associated with several social and environmental risk factors, and extreme conditions can act as catalysts. A social extreme known to be associated with infectious disease outbreaks is conflict, causing disruption to services, loss of income, and displacement. To determine the extent of this association, we used the self-controlled case-series method and found that conflict increased the risk for cholera in Nigeria by 3.6 times and in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by 2.6 times. We also found that 19.7% of cholera outbreaks in Nigeria and 12.3% of outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo were attributable to conflict. Our results highlight the value of providing rapid and sufficient assistance during conflict-associated cholera outbreaks and working toward conflict resolution and addressing preexisting vulnerabilities, such as poverty and access to healthcare.
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13
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Romanello M, Di Napoli C, Drummond P, Green C, Kennard H, Lampard P, Scamman D, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Ford LB, Belesova K, Bowen K, Cai W, Callaghan M, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chambers J, van Daalen KR, Dalin C, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Dominguez-Salas P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Georgeson L, Graham H, Gunther SH, Hamilton I, Hang Y, Hänninen R, Hartinger S, He K, Hess JJ, Hsu SC, Jankin S, Jamart L, Jay O, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kinney P, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lee JKW, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Batista ML, Lowe R, MacGuire F, Sewe MO, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McGushin A, McMichael C, Mi Z, Milner J, Minor K, Minx JC, Mohajeri N, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Obradovich N, O'Hare MB, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Rabbaniha M, Robinson EJZ, Rocklöv J, Salas RN, Semenza JC, Sherman JD, Shi L, Shumake-Guillemot J, Silbert G, Sofiev M, Springmann M, Stowell J, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Triñanes J, Wagner F, Wilkinson P, Winning M, Yglesias-González M, Zhang S, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A. The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels. Lancet 2022; 400:1619-1654. [PMID: 36306815 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01540-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 272] [Impact Index Per Article: 136.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Revised: 08/04/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Carole Green
- Department of Global Health, Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Harry Kennard
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Daniel Scamman
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nigel Arnell
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Kristine Belesova
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kathryn Bowen
- School of Population Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Max Callaghan
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
| | - Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
- Department of Environment, Climate Change, and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Kim R van Daalen
- Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health & Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Carole Dalin
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Economic Analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy
| | - Michael Davies
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Robert Dubrow
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences and Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew Eckelman
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | | | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Samuel H Gunther
- NUS Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore
| | - Ian Hamilton
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Yun Hang
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Stella Hartinger
- Facultad de Salud Publica y Administracion, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Kehan He
- Bartlett Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jeremy J Hess
- Department of Global Health, Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Slava Jankin
- Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Ollie Jay
- Heat and Health Research Incubator, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Patrick Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tord Kjellstrom
- Health and Environmental International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand
| | | | - Jason K W Lee
- NUS Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore
| | - Bruno Lemke
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Yang Liu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Martin Lotto Batista
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies and Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Frances MacGuire
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maquins Odhiambo Sewe
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy McAllister
- Center for Energy Markets, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Alice McGushin
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Zhifu Mi
- Barlett School of Sustainable Construction, University of London, London, UK
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kelton Minor
- Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Jan C Minx
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
| | - Nahid Mohajeri
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventative Medicine and Public Health Research Centre, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Karyn Morrissey
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics Sustainability, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
| | | | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Unit The Gambia at LSHTM, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Tara Neville
- Department of Environment, Climate Change, and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Nick Obradovich
- Centre for Humans and Machines, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
| | - Megan B O'Hare
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Tadj Oreszczyn
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Matthias Otto
- Department of Arts, Media, and Digital Technologies, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Fereidoon Owfi
- Iranian Fisheries Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olivia Pearman
- Cooperative Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Mahnaz Rabbaniha
- Iranian Fisheries Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elizabeth J Z Robinson
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Heidelberg Institute for Global Health and Interdisciplinary Centre forScientific Computing, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Renee N Salas
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Heidelberg Institute for Global Health and Interdisciplinary Centre forScientific Computing, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Jodi D Sherman
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Grant Silbert
- Melbourne Medical School, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | - Marco Springmann
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jennifer Stowell
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Joaquin Triñanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | - Fabian Wagner
- Energy, Climate, and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Public Health, Environment, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Winning
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Marisol Yglesias-González
- Centro Latinoamericano de Excelencia en Cambio Climático y Salud, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Shihui Zhang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Centre for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
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14
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Martín G, Erinjery JJ, Ediriweera D, de Silva HJ, Lalloo DG, Iwamura T, Murray KA. A mechanistic model of snakebite as a zoonosis: Envenoming incidence is driven by snake ecology, socioeconomics and its impacts on snakes. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2022; 16:e0009867. [PMID: 35551272 PMCID: PMC9129040 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009867] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2021] [Revised: 05/24/2022] [Accepted: 04/07/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Snakebite is the only WHO-listed, not infectious neglected tropical disease (NTD), although its eco-epidemiology is similar to that of zoonotic infections: envenoming occurs after a vertebrate host contacts a human. Accordingly, snakebite risk represents the interaction between snake and human factors, but their quantification has been limited by data availability. Models of infectious disease transmission are instrumental for the mitigation of NTDs and zoonoses. Here, we represented snake-human interactions with disease transmission models to approximate geospatial estimates of snakebite incidence in Sri Lanka, a global hotspot. Snakebites and envenomings are described by the product of snake and human abundance, mirroring directly transmitted zoonoses. We found that human-snake contact rates vary according to land cover (surrogate of occupation and socioeconomic status), the impacts of humans and climate on snake abundance, and by snake species. Our findings show that modelling snakebite as zoonosis provides a mechanistic eco-epidemiological basis to understand snakebites, and the possible implications of global environmental and demographic change for the burden of snakebite.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerardo Martín
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Departamento de Sistemas y Procesos Naturales, Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores unidad Mérida, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mérida, México
- * E-mail:
| | - Joseph J. Erinjery
- School of Zoology, Department of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Department of Zoology, Kannur University, Kannur, India
| | | | | | - David G. Lalloo
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Takuya Iwamura
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America
| | - Kris A. Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Atlantic Boulevard, Fajara, The Gambia
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15
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Wegner GI, Murray KA, Springmann M, Muller A, Sokolow SH, Saylors K, Morens DM. Averting wildlife-borne infectious disease epidemics requires a focus on socio-ecological drivers and a redesign of the global food system. EClinicalMedicine 2022; 47:101386. [PMID: 35465645 PMCID: PMC9014132 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101386] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2021] [Revised: 03/14/2022] [Accepted: 03/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
A debate has emerged over the potential socio-ecological drivers of wildlife-origin zoonotic disease outbreaks and emerging infectious disease (EID) events. This Review explores the extent to which the incidence of wildlife-origin infectious disease outbreaks, which are likely to include devastating pandemics like HIV/AIDS and COVID-19, may be linked to excessive and increasing rates of tropical deforestation for agricultural food production and wild meat hunting and trade, which are further related to contemporary ecological crises such as global warming and mass species extinction. Here we explore a set of precautionary responses to wildlife-origin zoonosis threat, including: (a) limiting human encroachment into tropical wildlands by promoting a global transition to diets low in livestock source foods; (b) containing tropical wild meat hunting and trade by curbing urban wild meat demand, while securing access for indigenous people and local communities in remote subsistence areas; and (c) improving biosecurity and other strategies to break zoonosis transmission pathways at the wildlife-human interface and along animal source food supply chains.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giulia I. Wegner
- Wildlife Conservation Research Unit (WildCRU), Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Tubney House, Abingdon Road, Tubney, Abingdon OX13 5QL, UK
| | - Kris A. Murray
- MRC Unit the Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, Gambia
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK
| | - Marco Springmann
- Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food and Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, 34 Broad Street, Oxford OX1 3BD, UK
| | - Adrian Muller
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH, Sonneggstrasse 33, Zürich 8092, Switzerland
- Research Institute of Organic Agriculture FiBL, Ackerstrasse 113, Frick 5070, Switzerland
| | - Susanne H. Sokolow
- Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Jerry Yang & Akiko Yamazaki Environment & Energy Building, MC 4205, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
- Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-6150, USA
| | - Karen Saylors
- Labyrinth Global Health, 15th Ave NE, St Petersburg, FL 33704, USA
| | - David M. Morens
- National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
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16
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Di Napoli C, McGushin A, Romanello M, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Cai W, Chambers J, Dasgupta S, Escobar LE, Kelman I, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lowe R, Martinez-Urtaza J, McMichael C, Moradi-Lakeh M, Murray KA, Rabbaniha M, Semenza JC, Shi L, Tabatabaei M, Trinanes JA, Vu BN, Brimicombe C, Robinson EJ. Tracking the impacts of climate change on human health via indicators: lessons from the Lancet Countdown. BMC Public Health 2022; 22:663. [PMID: 35387618 PMCID: PMC8985369 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13055-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2021] [Accepted: 03/22/2022] [Indexed: 03/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the past decades, climate change has been impacting human lives and health via extreme weather and climate events and alterations in labour capacity, food security, and the prevalence and geographical distribution of infectious diseases across the globe. Climate change and health indicators (CCHIs) are workable tools designed to capture the complex set of interdependent interactions through which climate change is affecting human health. Since 2015, a novel sub-set of CCHIs, focusing on climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability indicators (CCIEVIs) has been developed, refined, and integrated by Working Group 1 of the "Lancet Countdown: Tracking Progress on Health and Climate Change", an international collaboration across disciplines that include climate, geography, epidemiology, occupation health, and economics. DISCUSSION This research in practice article is a reflective narrative documenting how we have developed CCIEVIs as a discrete set of quantifiable indicators that are updated annually to provide the most recent picture of climate change's impacts on human health. In our experience, the main challenge was to define globally relevant indicators that also have local relevance and as such can support decision making across multiple spatial scales. We found a hazard, exposure, and vulnerability framework to be effective in this regard. We here describe how we used such a framework to define CCIEVIs based on both data availability and the indicators' relevance to climate change and human health. We also report on how CCIEVIs have been improved and added to, detailing the underlying data and methods, and in doing so provide the defining quality criteria for Lancet Countdown CCIEVIs. CONCLUSIONS Our experience shows that CCIEVIs can effectively contribute to a world-wide monitoring system that aims to track, communicate, and harness evidence on climate-induced health impacts towards effective intervention strategies. An ongoing challenge is how to improve CCIEVIs so that the description of the linkages between climate change and human health can become more and more comprehensive.
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Affiliation(s)
- Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK. .,Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
| | - Alice McGushin
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK.,School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton Falmer, UK.,United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute for Environmental Science, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London, UK.,Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Venice, Italy.,Università Ca' Foscari, Venice, Italy
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.,Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, UK.,University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway
| | - Tord Kjellstrom
- Health and Environment International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Dominic Kniveton
- School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton Falmer, UK
| | - Yang Liu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain.,Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain.,Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health and Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Unit The Gambia At London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Atlantic Boulevard, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Mahnaz Rabbaniha
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA
| | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Higher Institution Centre of Excellence (HICoE), Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries (AKUATROP), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia.,Henan Province Forest Resources Sustainable Development and High-value Utilization Engineering Research Center, School of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou, 450002, China
| | - Joaquin A Trinanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | - Bryan N Vu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA
| | - Chloe Brimicombe
- Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Elizabeth J Robinson
- Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), London, UK
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17
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Charnley GEC, Kelman I, Gaythorpe KAM, Murray KA. Accessing sub-national cholera epidemiological data for Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo during the seventh pandemic. BMC Infect Dis 2022; 22:288. [PMID: 35351008 PMCID: PMC8966316 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07266-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2022] [Accepted: 03/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Vibrio cholerae is a water-borne pathogen with a global burden estimate at 1.4 to 4.0 million annual cases. Over 94% of these cases are reported in Africa and more research is needed to understand cholera dynamics in the region. Cholera data are lacking, mainly due to reporting issues, creating barriers for widespread research on cholera epidemiology and management in Africa. MAIN BODY Here, we present datasets that were created to help address this gap, collating freely available sub-national cholera data for Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The data were collated from a variety of English and French publicly available sources, including the World Health Organization, PubMed, UNICEF, EM-DAT, the Nigerian CDC and peer-reviewed literature. These data include information on cases, deaths, age, gender, oral cholera vaccination, risk factors and interventions. CONCLUSION These datasets can facilitate qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods research in these two high burden countries to assist in public health planning. The data can be used in collaboration with organisations in the two countries, which have also collected data or undertaking research. By making the data and methods available, we aim to encourage their use and further data collection and compilation to help improve the data gaps for cholera in Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gina E. C. Charnley
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG UK
| | - Ilan Kelman
- grid.83440.3b0000000121901201Institute for Global Health & Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, WC1E 6BT UK ,grid.23048.3d0000 0004 0417 6230University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway
| | - Katy A. M. Gaythorpe
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG UK
| | - Kris A. Murray
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG UK ,MRC Unit the Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Atlantic Boulevard, Fajara, The Gambia
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18
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Hanley-Cook GT, Daly AJ, Remans R, Jones AD, Murray KA, Huybrechts I, De Baets B, Lachat C. Food biodiversity: Quantifying the unquantifiable in human diets. Crit Rev Food Sci Nutr 2022; 63:7837-7851. [PMID: 35297716 DOI: 10.1080/10408398.2022.2051163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/09/2023]
Abstract
Dietary diversity is an established public health principle, and its measurement is essential for studies of diet quality and food security. However, conventional between food group scores fail to capture the nutritional variability and ecosystem services delivered by dietary richness and dissimilarity within food groups, or the relative distribution (i.e., evenness or moderation) of e.g., species or varieties across whole diets. Summarizing food biodiversity in an all-encompassing index is problematic. Therefore, various diversity indices have been proposed in ecology, yet these require methodological adaption for integration in dietary assessments. In this narrative review, we summarize the key conceptual issues underlying the measurement of food biodiversity at an edible species level, assess the ecological diversity indices previously applied to food consumption and food supply data, discuss their relative suitability, and potential amendments for use in (quantitative) dietary intake studies. Ecological diversity indices are often used without justification through the lens of nutrition. To illustrate: (i) dietary species richness fails to account for the distribution of foods across the diet or their functional traits; (ii) evenness indices, such as the Gini-Simpson index, require widely accepted relative abundance units (e.g., kcal, g, cups) and evidence-based moderation weighting factors; and (iii) functional dissimilarity indices are constructed based on an arbitrary selection of distance measures, cutoff criteria, and number of phylogenetic, nutritional, and morphological traits. Disregard for these limitations can lead to counterintuitive results and ambiguous or incorrect conclusions about the food biodiversity within diets or food systems. To ensure comparability and robustness of future research, we advocate food biodiversity indices that: (i) satisfy key axioms; (ii) can be extended to account for disparity between edible species; and (iii) are used in combination, rather than in isolation.Supplemental data for this article is available online at https://doi.org/10.1080/10408398.2022.2051163 .
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Affiliation(s)
- Giles T Hanley-Cook
- Department of Food Technology, Safety and Health, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Aisling J Daly
- Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Roseline Remans
- The Alliance of Bioversity International and International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Andrew D Jones
- Department of Nutritional Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, MRC Unit The Gambia at London, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Inge Huybrechts
- Nutrition and Metabolism Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
| | - Bernard De Baets
- Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Carl Lachat
- Department of Food Technology, Safety and Health, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
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19
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Shah HA, Carrasco LR, Hamlet A, Murray KA. Exploring agricultural land-use and childhood malaria associations in sub-Saharan Africa. Sci Rep 2022; 12:4124. [PMID: 35260722 PMCID: PMC8904834 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-07837-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2021] [Accepted: 02/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Agriculture in Africa is rapidly expanding but with this comes potential disbenefits for the environment and human health. Here, we retrospectively assess whether childhood malaria in sub-Saharan Africa varies across differing agricultural land uses after controlling for socio-economic and environmental confounders. Using a multi-model inference hierarchical modelling framework, we found that rainfed cropland was associated with increased malaria in rural (OR 1.10, CI 1.03-1.18) but not urban areas, while irrigated or post flooding cropland was associated with malaria in urban (OR 1.09, CI 1.00-1.18) but not rural areas. In contrast, although malaria was associated with complete forest cover (OR 1.35, CI 1.24-1.47), the presence of natural vegetation in agricultural lands potentially reduces the odds of malaria depending on rural-urban context. In contrast, no associations with malaria were observed for natural vegetation interspersed with cropland (veg-dominant mosaic). Agricultural expansion through rainfed or irrigated cropland may increase childhood malaria in rural or urban contexts in sub-Saharan Africa but retaining some natural vegetation within croplands could help mitigate this risk and provide environmental co-benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiral Anil Shah
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. .,Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment - Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Luis Roman Carrasco
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Arran Hamlet
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Unit The Gambia at London, School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Atlantic Boulevard, Fajara, The Gambia.,Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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20
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Abstract
Africa has historically seen several periods of prolonged and extreme droughts across the continent, causing food insecurity, exacerbating social inequity and frequent mortality. A known consequence of droughts and their associated risk factors are infectious disease outbreaks, which are worsened by malnutrition, poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene and population displacement. Cholera is a potential causative agent of such outbreaks. Africa has the highest global cholera burden, several drought-prone regions and high levels of inequity. Despite this, research on cholera and drought in Africa is lacking. Here, we review available research on drought-related cholera outbreaks in Africa and identify a variety of potential mechanisms through which these outbreaks occurred, including poor access to water, marginalization of refugees and nomadic populations, expansion of informal urban settlements and demographic risks. Future climate change may alter precipitation, temperature and drought patterns, resulting in more extremes, although these changes are likely to be spatially heterogeneous. Despite high uncertainty in future drought projections, increases in drought frequency and/or durations have the potential to alter these related outbreaks into the future, potentially increasing cholera burden in the absence of countermeasures (e.g. improved sanitation infrastructure). To enable effective planning for a potentially more drought-prone Africa, inequity must be addressed, research on the health implications of drought should be enhanced, and better drought diplomacy is required to improve drought resilience under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gina E. C. Charnley
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Ilan Kelman
- University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway
- Institute for Global Health, Faculty of Population Health, University College London, London, UK
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, Faculty of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University College London, London, UK
| | - Kris A. Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Mrc Unit the Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
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21
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Bonell A, Badjie J, Jammeh S, Ali Z, Hydara M, Davies A, Faal M, Ahmed AN, Hand W, Prentice AM, Murray KA, Scheelbeek P. Grassroots and Youth-Led Climate Solutions From The Gambia. Front Public Health 2022; 10:784915. [PMID: 35462834 PMCID: PMC9021377 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.784915] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2021] [Accepted: 03/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change and environmental degradation are among the greatest threats to human health. Youth campaigners have very effectively focused global attention on the crisis, however children from the Global South are often under-represented (sometimes deliberately) in the dialogue. In The Gambia, West Africa, the impacts of climate change are already being directly experienced by the population, and this will worsen in coming years. There is strong government and community commitment to adapt to these challenges, as evidenced by The Gambia currently being the only country on target to meet the Paris agreement according to the Nationally Determined Contributions, but again children's voices are often missing-while their views could yield valuable additional insights. Here, we describe a "Climate Change Solutions Festival" that targeted and engaged school children from 13 to 18 years, and is to our knowledge, the first peer-to-peer (and student-to-professional) learning festival on climate change solutions for students in The Gambia. The event gave a unique insight into perceived climate change problems and scalable, affordable and sometimes very creative solutions that could be implemented in the local area. Logistical and practical methods for running the festival are shared, as well as details on all solutions demonstrated in enough detail to be duplicated. We also performed a narrative review of the most popular stalls to explore the scientific basis of these solutions and discuss these in a global context. Overall, we find extremely strong, grass-roots and student engagement in the Gambia and clear evidence of learning about climate change and the impacts of environmental degradation more broadly. Nevertheless, we reflect that in order to enact these proposed local solutions further steps to evaluate acceptability of adoption, feasibility within the communities, cost-benefit analyses and ability to scale solutions are needed. This could be the focus of future experiential learning activities with students and partnering stakeholders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Bonell
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- *Correspondence: Ana Bonell
| | - Jainaba Badjie
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Sariba Jammeh
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Zakari Ali
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | | | | | | | - Aliyu Nuhu Ahmed
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - William Hand
- Banjul American International School, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Andrew M. Prentice
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Kris A. Murray
- Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Medical Research Council (MRC) Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Pauline Scheelbeek
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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22
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Charnley GEC, Yennan S, Ochu C, Kelman I, Gaythorpe KAM, Murray KA. The impact of social and environmental extremes on cholera time varying reproduction number in Nigeria. PLOS Glob Public Health 2022; 2:e0000869. [PMID: 36962831 PMCID: PMC10022205 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000869] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Accepted: 11/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Nigeria currently reports the second highest number of cholera cases in Africa, with numerous socioeconomic and environmental risk factors. Less investigated are the role of extreme events, despite recent work showing their potential importance. To address this gap, we used a machine learning approach to understand the risks and thresholds for cholera outbreaks and extreme events, taking into consideration pre-existing vulnerabilities. We estimated time varying reproductive number (R) from cholera incidence in Nigeria and used a machine learning approach to evaluate its association with extreme events (conflict, flood, drought) and pre-existing vulnerabilities (poverty, sanitation, healthcare). We then created a traffic-light system for cholera outbreak risk, using three hypothetical traffic-light scenarios (Red, Amber and Green) and used this to predict R. The system highlighted potential extreme events and socioeconomic thresholds for outbreaks to occur. We found that reducing poverty and increasing access to sanitation lessened vulnerability to increased cholera risk caused by extreme events (monthly conflicts and the Palmers Drought Severity Index). The main limitation is the underreporting of cholera globally and the potential number of cholera cases missed in the data used here. Increasing access to sanitation and decreasing poverty reduced the impact of extreme events in terms of cholera outbreak risk. The results here therefore add further evidence of the need for sustainable development for disaster prevention and mitigation and to improve health and quality of life.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gina E C Charnley
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sebastian Yennan
- Surveillance and Epidemiology Department/IM Cholera, Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Chinwe Ochu
- Surveillance and Epidemiology Department/IM Cholera, Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway
| | - Katy A M Gaythorpe
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Kris A Murray
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gamiba
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23
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Castaneda-Guzman M, Mantilla-Saltos G, Murray KA, Settlage R, Escobar LE. A database of global coastal conditions. Sci Data 2021; 8:304. [PMID: 34836949 PMCID: PMC8626420 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-021-01081-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2021] [Accepted: 10/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Remote sensing satellite imagery has the potential to monitor and understand dynamic environmental phenomena by retrieving information about Earth's surface. Marine ecosystems, however, have been studied with less intensity than terrestrial ecosystems due, in part, to data limitations. Data on sea surface temperature (SST) and Chlorophyll-a (Chlo-a) can provide quantitative information of environmental conditions in coastal regions at a high spatial and temporal resolutions. Using the exclusive economic zone of coastal regions as the study area, we compiled monthly and annual statistics of SST and Chlo-a globally for 2003 to 2020. This ready-to-use dataset aims to reduce the computational time and costs for local-, regional-, continental-, and global-level studies of coastal areas. Data may be of interest to researchers in the areas of ecology, oceanography, biogeography, fisheries, and global change. Target applications of the database include environmental monitoring of biodiversity and marine microorganisms, and environmental anomalies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariana Castaneda-Guzman
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, 24061, USA
| | - Gabriel Mantilla-Saltos
- Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Matemáticas, Guayaquil, Ecuador
| | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Robert Settlage
- Advanced Research Computing at Virginia Tech Carilion, Roanoke, Virginia, USA
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, 24061, USA.
- Global Change Center, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
- Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Arthropod-borne Pathogens, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
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24
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Martín G, Erinjery J, Gumbs R, Somaweera R, Ediriweera D, Diggle PJ, Kasturiratne A, Silva HJ, Lalloo DG, Iwamura T, Murray KA. Integrating snake distribution, abundance and expert‐derived behavioural traits predicts snakebite risk. J Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.14081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Gerardo Martín
- MRC Centre for Global Disease Analysis Imperial College London London UK
- Grantham Institute—Climate Change and Environment Imperial College London London UK
- Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores unidad Mérida Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Yucatán México
| | - Joseph Erinjery
- Department of Life Sciences School of Zoology Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv Israel
- Department of Zoology Kannur University Kannur India
| | - Rikki Gumbs
- Department of Life Sciences Imperial College London Ascot Berkshire UK
- EDGE of Existence Programme Zoological Society of London London UK
| | - Ruchira Somaweera
- Aquatic and Subterranean Ecology GroupStantec Australia Perth WA Australia
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Western Australia Crawley WA Australia
| | - Dileepa Ediriweera
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics Lancaster Medical School Lancaster University Lancaster UK
- Faculty of Medicine University of Kelaniya Ragama Sri Lanka
| | - Peter J. Diggle
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics Lancaster Medical School Lancaster University Lancaster UK
| | | | | | | | - Takuya Iwamura
- Department of Life Sciences School of Zoology Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv Israel
- Deparment of Forest Ecosystems and Society College of Forestry Oregon State University Corvallis OR USA
| | - Kris A. Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Disease Analysis Imperial College London London UK
- Grantham Institute—Climate Change and Environment Imperial College London London UK
- MRC Unit the Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Fajara The Gambia
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25
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Malhotra A, Wüster W, Owens JB, Hodges CW, Jesudasan A, Ch G, Kartik A, Christopher P, Louies J, Naik H, Santra V, Kuttalam SR, Attre S, Sasa M, Bravo-Vega C, Murray KA. Promoting co-existence between humans and venomous snakes through increasing the herpetological knowledge base. Toxicon X 2021; 12:100081. [PMID: 34522881 PMCID: PMC8426276 DOI: 10.1016/j.toxcx.2021.100081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2021] [Revised: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 08/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Snakebite incidence at least partly depends on the biology of the snakes involved. However, studies of snake biology have been largely neglected in favour of anthropic factors, with the exception of taxonomy, which has been recognised for some decades to affect the design of antivenoms. Despite this, within-species venom variation and the unpredictability of the correlation with antivenom cross-reactivity has continued to be problematic. Meanwhile, other aspects of snake biology, including behaviour, spatial ecology and activity patterns, distribution, and population demography, which can contribute to snakebite mitigation and prevention, remain underfunded and understudied. Here, we review the literature relevant to these aspects of snakebite and illustrate how demographic, spatial, and behavioural studies can improve our understanding of why snakebites occur and provide evidence for prevention strategies. We identify the large gaps that remain to be filled and urge that, in the future, data and relevant metadata be shared openly via public data repositories so that studies can be properly replicated and data used in future meta-analyses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anita Malhotra
- Molecular Ecology and Evolution @ Bangor, School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, 3rd floor ECW, Deiniol Road, Bangor, LL57 2UW, UK
| | - Wolfgang Wüster
- Molecular Ecology and Evolution @ Bangor, School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, 3rd floor ECW, Deiniol Road, Bangor, LL57 2UW, UK
| | - John Benjamin Owens
- Molecular Ecology and Evolution @ Bangor, School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, 3rd floor ECW, Deiniol Road, Bangor, LL57 2UW, UK
- Captive & Field Herpetology Ltd, Wales, 13 Hirfron, Holyhead, Llaingoch, Anglesey, LL65 1YU, UK
| | - Cameron Wesley Hodges
- School of Biology, Institute of Science, Suranaree University of Technology, Muang Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand
| | - Allwin Jesudasan
- Madras Crocodile Bank Trust, Centre for Herpetology, Post bag No.4, Vadanamelli Village, East Coast Road, Mamallapuram, 603 104, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Gnaneswar Ch
- Madras Crocodile Bank Trust, Centre for Herpetology, Post bag No.4, Vadanamelli Village, East Coast Road, Mamallapuram, 603 104, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Ajay Kartik
- Madras Crocodile Bank Trust, Centre for Herpetology, Post bag No.4, Vadanamelli Village, East Coast Road, Mamallapuram, 603 104, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Peter Christopher
- Madras Crocodile Bank Trust, Centre for Herpetology, Post bag No.4, Vadanamelli Village, East Coast Road, Mamallapuram, 603 104, Tamil Nadu, India
| | | | - Hiral Naik
- School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. P. O. Wits, 2050, Gauteng, South Africa
- Save the Snakes, R527, Blyderus, Hoedspruit, 1380, South Africa
| | - Vishal Santra
- Captive & Field Herpetology Ltd, Wales, 13 Hirfron, Holyhead, Llaingoch, Anglesey, LL65 1YU, UK
- Society for Nature Conservation, Research and Community Engagement (CONCERN), Nalikul, Hooghly, West Bengal 712407, India
| | - Sourish Rajagopalan Kuttalam
- Society for Nature Conservation, Research and Community Engagement (CONCERN), Nalikul, Hooghly, West Bengal 712407, India
| | - Shaleen Attre
- Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, Marlowe Building, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NR, UK
| | - Mahmood Sasa
- Instituto Clodomiro Picado, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica
- Escuela de Biología, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica
| | - Carlos Bravo-Vega
- Research Group in Mathematical and Computational Biology (BIOMAC), Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of the Andes, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Kris A. Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, UK
- MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Atlantic Boulevard, Fajara, Gambia
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26
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Romanello M, McGushin A, Di Napoli C, Drummond P, Hughes N, Jamart L, Kennard H, Lampard P, Solano Rodriguez B, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Belesova K, Cai W, Campbell-Lendrum D, Capstick S, Chambers J, Chu L, Ciampi L, Dalin C, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Dominguez-Salas P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Georgeson L, Grace D, Graham H, Gunther SH, Hartinger S, He K, Heaviside C, Hess J, Hsu SC, Jankin S, Jimenez MP, Kelman I, Kiesewetter G, Kinney PL, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lee JKW, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Lowe R, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McMichael C, Mi Z, Milner J, Minor K, Mohajeri N, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Obradovich N, Sewe MO, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pencheon D, Rabbaniha M, Robinson E, Rocklöv J, Salas RN, Semenza JC, Sherman J, Shi L, Springmann M, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Trinanes J, Shumake-Guillemot J, Vu B, Wagner F, Wilkinson P, Winning M, Yglesias M, Zhang S, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A, Hamilton I. The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future. Lancet 2021; 398:1619-1662. [PMID: 34687662 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)01787-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 410] [Impact Index Per Article: 136.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2021] [Revised: 07/20/2021] [Accepted: 07/29/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Alice McGushin
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nick Hughes
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Louis Jamart
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Harry Kennard
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | | | - Nigel Arnell
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany
| | - Kristine Belesova
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Stuart Capstick
- Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
| | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Lingzhi Chu
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Luisa Ciampi
- The Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Carole Dalin
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy
| | - Michael Davies
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Robert Dubrow
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew Eckelman
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | | | - Delia Grace
- Animal and Human Health Program, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Samuel H Gunther
- Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore
| | - Stella Hartinger
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Kehan He
- The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK
| | - Clare Heaviside
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jeremy Hess
- Centre for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Slava Jankin
- Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Berlin, Germany
| | - Marcia P Jimenez
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Patrick L Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tord Kjellstrom
- Health and Environment International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand
| | | | - Jason K W Lee
- Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Singapore, Singapore
| | - Bruno Lemke
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Yang Liu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy McAllister
- Center for Energy Markets, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Zhifu Mi
- The Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, University College London, London, UK
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kelton Minor
- Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Nahid Mohajeri
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Karyn Morrissey
- Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Unit The Gambia, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Tara Neville
- Department of Environment, Climate Change and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Nick Obradovich
- Centre for Humans and Machines, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany
| | - Maquins Odhiambo Sewe
- Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Tadj Oreszczyn
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Matthias Otto
- Department of Arts, Media & Digital Technologies, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Fereidoon Owfi
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olivia Pearman
- Cooperative Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - David Pencheon
- College of Medicine and Health, Exeter University, Exeter, UK
| | - Mahnaz Rabbaniha
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elizabeth Robinson
- School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Section of Sustainable Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Renee N Salas
- Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Jodi Sherman
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Higher Institution Centre of Excellence, Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Joaquin Trinanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | | | - Bryan Vu
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Fabian Wagner
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Programme, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Winning
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Marisol Yglesias
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Shihui Zhang
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Centre for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Ian Hamilton
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
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27
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Hanley-Cook GT, Huybrechts I, Biessy C, Remans R, Kennedy G, Deschasaux-Tanguy M, Murray KA, Touvier M, Skeie G, Kesse-Guyot E, Argaw A, Casagrande C, Nicolas G, Vineis P, Millett CJ, Weiderpass E, Ferrari P, Dahm CC, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Sandanger TM, Ibsen DB, Freisling H, Ramne S, Jannasch F, van der Schouw YT, Schulze MB, Tsilidis KK, Tjønneland A, Ardanaz E, Bodén S, Cirera L, Gargano G, Halkjær J, Jakszyn P, Johansson I, Katzke V, Masala G, Panico S, Rodriguez-Barranco M, Sacerdote C, Srour B, Tumino R, Riboli E, Gunter MJ, Jones AD, Lachat C. Food biodiversity and total and cause-specific mortality in 9 European countries: An analysis of a prospective cohort study. PLoS Med 2021; 18:e1003834. [PMID: 34662340 PMCID: PMC8559947 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003834] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2021] [Revised: 11/01/2021] [Accepted: 10/04/2021] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Food biodiversity, encompassing the variety of plants, animals, and other organisms consumed as food and drink, has intrinsic potential to underpin diverse, nutritious diets and improve Earth system resilience. Dietary species richness (DSR), which is recommended as a crosscutting measure of food biodiversity, has been positively associated with the micronutrient adequacy of diets in women and young children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the relationships between DSR and major health outcomes have yet to be assessed in any population. METHODS AND FINDINGS We examined the associations between DSR and subsequent total and cause-specific mortality among 451,390 adults enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study (1992 to 2014, median follow-up: 17 years), free of cancer, diabetes, heart attack, or stroke at baseline. Usual dietary intakes were assessed at recruitment with country-specific dietary questionnaires (DQs). DSR of an individual's yearly diet was calculated based on the absolute number of unique biological species in each (composite) food and drink. Associations were assessed by fitting multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. In the EPIC cohort, 2 crops (common wheat and potato) and 2 animal species (cow and pig) accounted for approximately 45% of self-reported total dietary energy intake [median (P10-P90): 68 (40 to 83) species consumed per year]. Overall, higher DSR was inversely associated with all-cause mortality rate. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing total mortality in the second, third, fourth, and fifth (highest) quintiles (Qs) of DSR to the first (lowest) Q indicate significant inverse associations, after stratification by sex, age, and study center and adjustment for smoking status, educational level, marital status, physical activity, alcohol intake, and total energy intake, Mediterranean diet score, red and processed meat intake, and fiber intake [HR (95% CI): 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94), 0.80 (0.76 to 0.83), 0.69 (0.66 to 0.72), and 0.63 (0.59 to 0.66), respectively; PWald < 0.001 for trend]. Absolute death rates among participants in the highest and lowest fifth of DSR were 65.4 and 69.3 cases/10,000 person-years, respectively. Significant inverse associations were also observed between DSR and deaths due to cancer, heart disease, digestive disease, and respiratory disease. An important study limitation is that our findings were based on an observational cohort using self-reported dietary data obtained through single baseline food frequency questionnaires (FFQs); thus, exposure misclassification and residual confounding cannot be ruled out. CONCLUSIONS In this large Pan-European cohort, higher DSR was inversely associated with total and cause-specific mortality, independent of sociodemographic, lifestyle, and other known dietary risk factors. Our findings support the potential of food (species) biodiversity as a guiding principle of sustainable dietary recommendations and food-based dietary guidelines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giles T. Hanley-Cook
- Department of Food Technology, Safety and Health, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
| | - Inge Huybrechts
- Nutritional Epidemiology Group, Nutrition and Metabolism Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France
| | - Carine Biessy
- Nutritional Methodology and Biostatistics Group, Nutrition and Metabolism Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France
| | - Roseline Remans
- Bioversity International, Heverlee, Belgium
- Department of Agrotechnology and Food Sciences, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Gina Kennedy
- Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition (GAIN), Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - Mélanie Deschasaux-Tanguy
- Sorbonne Paris Nord University, Inserm U1153, Inrae U1125, Cnam, Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team (EREN), Epidemiology and Statistics Research Center—University of Paris (CRESS), Bobigny, France
| | - Kris A. Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Fajara, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Mathilde Touvier
- Sorbonne Paris Nord University, Inserm U1153, Inrae U1125, Cnam, Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team (EREN), Epidemiology and Statistics Research Center—University of Paris (CRESS), Bobigny, France
| | - Guri Skeie
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, UiT, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot
- Sorbonne Paris Nord University, Inserm U1153, Inrae U1125, Cnam, Nutritional Epidemiology Research Team (EREN), Epidemiology and Statistics Research Center—University of Paris (CRESS), Bobigny, France
| | - Alemayehu Argaw
- Department of Food Technology, Safety and Health, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
- Department of Population and Family Health, Institute of Health, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
| | - Corinne Casagrande
- Nutritional Methodology and Biostatistics Group, Nutrition and Metabolism Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France
| | - Geneviève Nicolas
- Biomarkers Group, Nutrition and Metabolism Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France
| | - Paolo Vineis
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Christopher J. Millett
- Public Health Policy Evaluation Unit, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Elisabete Weiderpass
- International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France
| | - Pietro Ferrari
- Nutritional Methodology and Biostatistics Group, Nutrition and Metabolism Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France
| | | | - H. Bas Bueno-de-Mesquita
- Department for Determinants of Chronic Diseases (DCD), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - Torkjel M. Sandanger
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, UiT, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Daniel B. Ibsen
- Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
- Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Heinz Freisling
- Nutritional Methodology and Biostatistics Group, Nutrition and Metabolism Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France
| | - Stina Ramne
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
| | - Franziska Jannasch
- Department of Molecular Epidemiology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany
- German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), München-Neuherberg, Germany
- NutriAct—Competence Cluster Nutrition Research Berlin-Potsdam, Nuthetal, Germany
| | - Yvonne T. van der Schouw
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Matthias B. Schulze
- Department of Molecular Epidemiology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany
- Institute of Nutritional Sciences, University of Potsdam, Nuthetal, Germany
| | - Konstantinos K. Tsilidis
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine, Ioannina, Greece
| | - Anne Tjønneland
- Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Eva Ardanaz
- Navarra Public Health Institute, Pamplona, Spain
- IdiSNA, Navarra Institute for Health Research, Pamplona, Spain
- Biomedical Research Networking Center for Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Stina Bodén
- Department of Radiation Sciences, Oncology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Lluís Cirera
- Biomedical Research Networking Center for Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Department of Epidemiology, Murcia Regional Health Council—IMIB-Arrixaca, Murcia, Spain
- Department of Health and Social Sciences, University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain
| | - Giuliana Gargano
- Epidemiology and Prevention Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan, Italy
| | - Jytte Halkjær
- Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Paula Jakszyn
- Unit of Nutrition and Cancer, Cancer Epidemiology Research Program, Catalan Institute of Oncology (ICO-IDIBELL), L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain
- Blanquerna School of Health Sciences, Ramon Llull University, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Ingegerd Johansson
- School of Dentistry, Cariology, Department of Odontology, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Verena Katzke
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Giovanna Masala
- Cancer Risk Factors and Life-Style Epidemiology Unit, Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network (ISPRO), Florence, Italy
| | - Salvatore Panico
- Dipartimento di Medicina Clinica e Chirurgia, Federico II University, Naples, Italy
| | - Miguel Rodriguez-Barranco
- Biomedical Research Networking Center for Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Andalusian School of Public Health (EASP), Granada, Spain
- Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria de Granada (ibs.GRANADA), Universidad de Granada, Granada, Spain
| | - Carlotta Sacerdote
- Unit of Cancer Epidemiology, Città della Salute e della Scienza University-Hospital and Centre for Cancer Prevention (CPO), Turin, Italy
| | - Bernard Srour
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Rosario Tumino
- Cancer Registry and Histopathology Department, Azienda Sanitaria Provinciale Ragusa (ASP 7), Ragusa, Italy
| | - Elio Riboli
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Marc J. Gunter
- Nutritional Epidemiology Group, Nutrition and Metabolism Section, International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France
| | - Andrew D. Jones
- Department of Nutritional Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
| | - Carl Lachat
- Department of Food Technology, Safety and Health, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
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Pintor AF, Ray N, Longbottom J, Bravo-Vega CA, Yousefi M, Murray KA, Ediriweera DS, Diggle PJ. Addressing the global snakebite crisis with geo-spatial analyses - Recent advances and future direction. Toxicon X 2021; 11:100076. [PMID: 34401744 PMCID: PMC8350508 DOI: 10.1016/j.toxcx.2021.100076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2021] [Revised: 07/13/2021] [Accepted: 07/14/2021] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Venomous snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that annually leads to hundreds of thousands of deaths or long-term physical and mental ailments across the developing world. Insufficient data on spatial variation in snakebite risk, incidence, human vulnerability, and accessibility of medical treatment contribute substantially to ineffective on-ground management. There is an urgent need to collect data, fill knowledge gaps and address on-ground management problems. The use of novel, and transdisciplinary approaches that take advantage of recent advances in spatio-temporal models, 'big data', high performance computing, and fine-scale spatial information can add value to snakebite management by strategically improving our understanding and mitigation capacity of snakebite. We review the background and recent advances on the topic of snakebite related geospatial analyses and suggest avenues for priority research that will have practical on-ground applications for snakebite management and mitigation. These include streamlined, targeted data collection on snake distributions, snakebites, envenomings, venom composition, health infrastructure, and antivenom accessibility along with fine-scale models of spatio-temporal variation in snakebite risk and incidence, intraspecific venom variation, and environmental change modifying human exposure. These measures could improve and 'future-proof' antivenom production methods, antivenom distribution and stockpiling systems, and human-wildlife conflict management practices, while simultaneously feeding into research on venom evolution, snake taxonomy, ecology, biogeography, and conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna F.V. Pintor
- Division of Data, Analytics and Delivery for Impact (DDI), World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
- Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, Division of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, Australia
| | - Nicolas Ray
- GeoHealth Group, Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Joshua Longbottom
- Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
- Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
| | - Carlos A. Bravo-Vega
- Research Group in Mathematical and Computational Biology (BIOMAC), Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia
| | - Masoud Yousefi
- School of Biology, College of Science, University of Tehran, Iran
| | - Kris A. Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, UK
- MRC Unit the Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Atlantic Blvd, Fajara, Gambia
| | - Dileepa S. Ediriweera
- Health Data Science Unit, Faculty of Medicine, University of Kelaniya, Ragama, Sri Lanka
| | - Peter J. Diggle
- Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom
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29
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Martín G, Yáñez-Arenas C, Rangel-Camacho R, Murray KA, Goldstein E, Iwamura T, Chiappa-Carrara X. Implications of global environmental change for the burden of snakebite. Toxicon X 2021; 9-10:100069. [PMID: 34258577 PMCID: PMC8254007 DOI: 10.1016/j.toxcx.2021.100069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2021] [Revised: 05/27/2021] [Accepted: 06/03/2021] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Snakebite envenoming is a set of intoxication diseases that disproportionately affect people of poor socioeconomic backgrounds in tropical countries. As it is highly dependent on the environment its burden is expected to shift spatially with global anthropogenic environmental (climate, land use) and demographic change. The mechanisms underlying the changes to snakebite epidemiology are related to factors of snakes and humans. The distribution and abundance of snakes are expected to change with global warming via their thermal tolerance, while rainfall may affect the timing of key activities like feeding and reproduction. Human population growth is the primary cause of land-use change, which may impact snakes at smaller spatial scales than climate via habitat and biodiversity loss (e.g. prey availability). Human populations, on the other hand, could experience novel patterns and morbidity of snakebite envenoming, both as a result of snake responses to environmental change and due to the development of agricultural adaptations to climate change, socioeconomic and cultural changes, development and availability of better antivenoms, personal protective equipment, and mechanization of agriculture that mediate risk of encounters with snakes and their outcomes. The likely global effects of environmental and demographic change are thus context-dependent and could encompass both increasing and or snakebite burden (incidence, number of cases or morbidity), exposing new populations to snakes in temperate areas due to “tropicalization”, or by land use change-induced snake biodiversity loss, respectively. Tackling global change requires drastic measures to ensure large-scale ecosystem functionality. However, as ecosystems represent the main source of venomous snakes their conservation should be accompanied by comprehensive public health campaigns. The challenges associated with the joint efforts of biodiversity conservation and public health professionals should be considered in the global sustainability agenda in a wider context that applies to neglected tropical and zoonotic and emerging diseases. Distribution and abundance of snakes are expected to be affected by climate change. Land-use change may also impact snakes but at smaller spatial scales than climate. Human populations could experience novel patterns and morbidity of snakebite. Reducing snakebite should be accompanied by actions that protect snake diversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerardo Martín
- Departamento de Sistemas y Procesos Naturales, Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores Unidad Mérida, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Yucatán, Mexico
| | - Carlos Yáñez-Arenas
- Laboratorio de Ecología Geográfica, Unidad de Conservación de La Biodiversidad, UMDI-Sisal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Sierra Papacal, Yucatán, 97302, Mexico
| | - Rodrigo Rangel-Camacho
- Laboratorio de Ecología Geográfica, Unidad de Conservación de La Biodiversidad, UMDI-Sisal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Sierra Papacal, Yucatán, 97302, Mexico
| | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Unit the Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Atlantic Boulevard, Fajara, Gambia
| | - Eyal Goldstein
- School of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Israel
| | - Takuya Iwamura
- Deparment of Forest Ecosystems and Society, College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA 97330
| | - Xavier Chiappa-Carrara
- Departamento de Sistemas y Procesos Naturales, Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores Unidad Mérida, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Yucatán, Mexico
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30
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Wariri O, Okomo U, Kwarshak YK, Murray KA, Grundy C, Kampmann B. Timeliness of routine childhood vaccination in low- and middle-income countries, 1978-2021: Protocol for a scoping review to map methodologic gaps and determinants. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0253423. [PMID: 34138965 PMCID: PMC8211249 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253423] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2021] [Accepted: 06/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The literature on the timeliness of childhood vaccination (i.e. vaccination at the earliest appropriate age) in low-and middle-income countries has important measurement and methodological issues that may limit their usefulness and cross comparison. We aim to conduct a comprehensive scoping review to map the existing literature with a key focus on how the literature on vaccination timeliness has evolved, how it has been defined or measured, and what determinants have been explored in the period spanning the last four decades. This scoping review protocol was developed based on the guidance for scoping reviews from the Joanna Briggs Institute. We will include English and French language peer-reviewed publications and grey literature on the timeliness of routine childhood vaccination in low-and middle-income countries published between January 1978 through to 2021. A three-step search strategy that involves an initial search of two databases to refine the keywords, a full search of all included electronic databases, and screening of references of previous studies for relevant articles missing from our full search will be employed. The search will be conducted in five electronic databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, CINAHL and Web of Science. Google search will also be conducted to identify relevant grey literature on vaccination timeliness. All retrieved titles from the search will be imported into Endnote X9.3.3 (Clarivate Analytics) and deduplicated. Two reviewers will screen the titles, abstracts and full texts of publications for eligibility using Rayyan-the web based application for screening articles for systematic reviews. Using a tailored data extraction template, we will extract relevant information from eligible studies. The study team will analyse the extracted data using descriptive statistical methods and thematic analysis. The results will be presented using tables, while charts and maps will be used to aid the visualisation of the key findings and themes. The proposed review will generate evidence on key methodological gaps in the literature on timeliness of childhood vaccination. Such evidence would shape the direction of future research, and assist immunisation programme managers and country-level stakeholders to address the needs of their national immunisation system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oghenebrume Wariri
- Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Uduak Okomo
- Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
| | | | - Kris A. Murray
- MRC Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Chris Grundy
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Beate Kampmann
- Vaccines and Immunity Theme, MRC Unit The Gambia at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
- The Vaccine Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
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31
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Huxley PJ, Murray KA, Pawar S, Cator LJ. The effect of resource limitation on the temperature dependence of mosquito population fitness. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20203217. [PMID: 33906411 PMCID: PMC8079993 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.3217] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2020] [Accepted: 03/31/2021] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Laboratory-derived temperature dependencies of life-history traits are increasingly being used to make mechanistic predictions for how climatic warming will affect vector-borne disease dynamics, partially by affecting abundance dynamics of the vector population. These temperature-trait relationships are typically estimated from juvenile populations reared on optimal resource supply, even though natural populations of vectors are expected to experience variation in resource supply, including intermittent resource limitation. Using laboratory experiments on the mosquito Aedes aegypti, a principal arbovirus vector, combined with stage-structured population modelling, we show that low-resource supply in the juvenile life stages significantly depresses the vector's maximal population growth rate across the entire temperature range (22-32°C) and causes it to peak at a lower temperature than at high-resource supply. This effect is primarily driven by an increase in juvenile mortality and development time, combined with a decrease in adult size with temperature at low-resource supply. Our study suggests that most projections of temperature-dependent vector abundance and disease transmission are likely to be biased because they are based on traits measured under optimal resource supply. Our results provide compelling evidence for future studies to consider resource supply when predicting the effects of climate and habitat change on vector-borne disease transmission, disease vectors and other arthropods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul J. Huxley
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Kris A. Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Banjul, The Gambia
| | - Samraat Pawar
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK
| | - Lauren J. Cator
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK
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Abstract
The integrative environment-health sciences including One Health, Conservation Medicine, EcoHealth and Planetary Health embody the transdisciplinary synthesis needed to understand the multitude of factors that underpin emerging infections and their management. Future successes in confronting and resolving the complex causal basis of disease emergence to generate robust, systems-oriented risk reduction strategies that preserve both human health as well as promoting sustainable futures represent the ‘Moon Shot’ for the integrative environment-health sciences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew C Fisher
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
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33
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Charnley GEC, Kelman I, Gaythorpe KAM, Murray KA. Traits and risk factors of post-disaster infectious disease outbreaks: a systematic review. Sci Rep 2021; 11:5616. [PMID: 33692451 PMCID: PMC7970931 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-85146-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2020] [Accepted: 02/23/2021] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Infectious disease outbreaks are increasingly recognised as events that exacerbate impacts or prolong recovery following disasters. Yet, our understanding of the frequency, geography, characteristics and risk factors of post-disaster disease outbreaks globally is lacking. This limits the extent to which disease outbreak risks can be prepared for, monitored and responded to following disasters. Here, we conducted a global systematic review of post-disaster outbreaks and found that outbreaks linked to conflicts and hydrological events were most frequently reported, and most often caused by bacterial and water-borne agents. Lack of adequate WASH facilities and poor housing were commonly reported risk factors. Displacement, through infrastructure damage, can lead to risk cascades for disease outbreaks; however, displacement can also be an opportunity to remove people from danger and ultimately protect health. The results shed new light on post-disaster disease outbreaks and their risks. Understanding these risk factors and cascades, could help improve future region-specific disaster risk reduction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gina E. C. Charnley
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK ,grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Ilan Kelman
- grid.83440.3b0000000121901201Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, Faculty of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University College London, London, UK ,grid.83440.3b0000000121901201Institute for Global Health, Faculty of Population Health, University College London, London, UK ,grid.23048.3d0000 0004 0417 6230University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway
| | - Katy A. M. Gaythorpe
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK ,grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Kris A. Murray
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK ,grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK ,grid.415063.50000 0004 0606 294XMRC Unit The Gambia At London, School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia
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34
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Watts N, Amann M, Arnell N, Ayeb-Karlsson S, Beagley J, Belesova K, Boykoff M, Byass P, Cai W, Campbell-Lendrum D, Capstick S, Chambers J, Coleman S, Dalin C, Daly M, Dasandi N, Dasgupta S, Davies M, Di Napoli C, Dominguez-Salas P, Drummond P, Dubrow R, Ebi KL, Eckelman M, Ekins P, Escobar LE, Georgeson L, Golder S, Grace D, Graham H, Haggar P, Hamilton I, Hartinger S, Hess J, Hsu SC, Hughes N, Jankin Mikhaylov S, Jimenez MP, Kelman I, Kennard H, Kiesewetter G, Kinney PL, Kjellstrom T, Kniveton D, Lampard P, Lemke B, Liu Y, Liu Z, Lott M, Lowe R, Martinez-Urtaza J, Maslin M, McAllister L, McGushin A, McMichael C, Milner J, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morrissey K, Munzert S, Murray KA, Neville T, Nilsson M, Sewe MO, Oreszczyn T, Otto M, Owfi F, Pearman O, Pencheon D, Quinn R, Rabbaniha M, Robinson E, Rocklöv J, Romanello M, Semenza JC, Sherman J, Shi L, Springmann M, Tabatabaei M, Taylor J, Triñanes J, Shumake-Guillemot J, Vu B, Wilkinson P, Winning M, Gong P, Montgomery H, Costello A. The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises. Lancet 2021; 397:129-170. [PMID: 33278353 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32290-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 670] [Impact Index Per Article: 223.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2020] [Revised: 08/03/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
For the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nick Watts
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Markus Amann
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Nigel Arnell
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson
- Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany
| | - Jessica Beagley
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Kristine Belesova
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Maxwell Boykoff
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Peter Byass
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
- Environment, Climate Change and Health Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Jonathan Chambers
- Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Samantha Coleman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Carole Dalin
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Meaghan Daly
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA
| | - Niheer Dasandi
- School of Government, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Shouro Dasgupta
- Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy
| | - Michael Davies
- Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering, University College London, London, UK
| | - Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Paula Dominguez-Salas
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Paul Drummond
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Robert Dubrow
- Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew Eckelman
- Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Paul Ekins
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
| | | | - Su Golder
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Delia Grace
- CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Human Nutrition and Health, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Hilary Graham
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA
| | - Paul Haggar
- School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK
| | - Ian Hamilton
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Stella Hartinger
- School of Public Health and Administration, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - Jeremy Hess
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Shih-Che Hsu
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Nick Hughes
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | | | - Marcia P Jimenez
- Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ilan Kelman
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Harry Kennard
- Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK
| | - Gregor Kiesewetter
- Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Patrick L Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Tord Kjellstrom
- Health and Environment International Trust, Nelson, New Zealand
| | | | - Pete Lampard
- Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, UK
| | - Bruno Lemke
- School of Health, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Yang Liu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Zhao Liu
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Melissa Lott
- Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jaime Martinez-Urtaza
- Department of Genetics and Microbiology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK
| | - Lucy McAllister
- Center for Energy Markets, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | - Alice McGushin
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Celia McMichael
- School of Geography, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - James Milner
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Maziar Moradi-Lakeh
- Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Psychosocial Health Research Institute, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Karyn Morrissey
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | | | - Kris A Murray
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK; Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Bakau, The Gambia
| | - Tara Neville
- Environment, Climate Change and Health Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria Nilsson
- Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | | | | | - Matthias Otto
- Department of Arts, Media and Digital Technologies, Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Fereidoon Owfi
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Olivia Pearman
- Environmental Studies Program, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - David Pencheon
- Medical and Health School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Ruth Quinn
- Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Mahnaz Rabbaniha
- Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, Agricultural Research, Education, and Extension Organisation, Tehran, Iran
| | - Elizabeth Robinson
- School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Marina Romanello
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, UK
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Scientific Assessment Section, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Solna, Sweden
| | - Jodi Sherman
- Department of Anesthesiology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Liuhua Shi
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Meisam Tabatabaei
- Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
| | - Jonathon Taylor
- Department of Civil Engineering, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Joaquin Triñanes
- Department of Electronics and Computer Science, CRETUS Institute, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago, Spain
| | | | - Bryan Vu
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Winning
- Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Hugh Montgomery
- Institute for Human Health and Performance, University College London, London, UK
| | - Anthony Costello
- Office of the Vice Provost for Research, University College London, London, UK
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Goldstein E, Erinjery JJ, Martin G, Kasturiratne A, Ediriweera DS, de Silva HJ, Diggle P, Lalloo DG, Murray KA, Iwamura T. Integrating human behavior and snake ecology with agent-based models to predict snakebite in high risk landscapes. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009047. [PMID: 33481802 PMCID: PMC7857561 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2020] [Revised: 02/03/2021] [Accepted: 12/07/2020] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Snakebite causes more than 1.8 million envenoming cases annually and is a major cause of death in the tropics especially for poor farmers. While both social and ecological factors influence the chance encounter between snakes and people, the spatio-temporal processes underlying snakebites remain poorly explored. Previous research has focused on statistical correlates between snakebites and ecological, sociological, or environmental factors, but the human and snake behavioral patterns that drive the spatio-temporal process have not yet been integrated into a single model. Here we use a bottom-up simulation approach using agent-based modelling (ABM) parameterized with datasets from Sri Lanka, a snakebite hotspot, to characterise the mechanisms of snakebite and identify risk factors. Spatio-temporal dynamics of snakebite risks are examined through the model incorporating six snake species and three farmer types (rice, tea, and rubber). We find that snakebites are mainly climatically driven, but the risks also depend on farmer types due to working schedules as well as species present in landscapes. Snake species are differentiated by both distribution and by habitat preference, and farmers are differentiated by working patterns that are climatically driven, and the combination of these factors leads to unique encounter rates for different landcover types as well as locations. Validation using epidemiological studies demonstrated that our model can explain observed patterns, including temporal patterns of snakebite incidence, and relative contribution of bites by each snake species. Our predictions can be used to generate hypotheses and inform future studies and decision makers. Additionally, our model is transferable to other locations with high snakebite burden as well.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eyal Goldstein
- School of Zoology, Department of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Joseph J. Erinjery
- School of Zoology, Department of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Department of Zoology, Kannur University, Kannur, India
| | - Gerardo Martin
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Grantham Institute—Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Anuradhani Kasturiratne
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Kelaniya, Kelaniya, Sri Lanka
| | | | | | - Peter Diggle
- CHICAS, Lancaster University Medical School, Lancaster, United Kingdom
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | | | - Kris A. Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Grantham Institute—Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Unit the Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Atlantic boulevard, Fajara, The Gambia
| | - Takuya Iwamura
- School of Zoology, Department of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America
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Abstract
Using infectious diseases sensitive to climate as indicators of climate change helps stimulate and inform public health responses, write Kris A Murray and colleagues
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Affiliation(s)
- Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College, London, UK
- Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College, London, UK
- MRC Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Atlantic Boulevard, Fajara, Banjul, the Gambia
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Luis E Escobar
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, 24061 USA
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Jan C Semenza
- Scientific Assessment Section, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 169 73 Solna, Sweden
| | - Nick Watts
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London W1T 4TJ, UK
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37
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Affiliation(s)
- Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London W2 1PG, UK.
| | - Gerardo Martin
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, London W2 1PG, UK
| | - Takuya Iwamura
- Department of Zoology, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
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38
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Tham S, Thompson R, Landeg O, Murray KA, Waite T. Indoor temperature and health: a global systematic review. Public Health 2019; 179:9-17. [PMID: 31707154 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2019.09.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2019] [Revised: 08/25/2019] [Accepted: 09/06/2019] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The objective of this study was to identify and appraise evidence on the direct and indirect impacts of high indoor temperatures on health; the indoor temperature threshold at which the identified health impacts are observed; and to summarise the evidence for establishing a maximum indoor temperature threshold for health. STUDY DESIGN This is a systematic literature review and narrative synthesis. METHODS A review of the published literature using MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, PsycINFO, Maternity and Infant Care, Cochrane Library, CINAHL and GreenFILE databases was conducted. The search criteria were kept broad to capture evidence from all countries and contexts; no date or study design limits were applied, except English language limits. We included studies that specifically measured indoor temperature and examined its effect on physical or mental health outcomes. Evidence was graded using the National Institutes of Health framework. RESULTS Twenty-two articles were included in the review, including 11 observational, seven cross-sectional and three longitudinal cohort studies and one prospective case-control study. Eight main health effects were described: respiratory, blood pressure, core temperature, blood glucose, mental health and cognition, heat-health symptoms, physical functioning and influenza transmission. Five studies found respiratory symptoms worsened in warm indoor environments, with one reporting indoor temperatures higher than 26 °C, which was associated with increased respiratory distress calls being made to paramedics (odds ratio = 1.63, P = 0.056). Core symptoms of schizophrenia and dementia were found to be significantly exacerbated by indoor heat (the latter above a 26 °C cumulative exposure threshold). The absorption of insulin doses in people with type one diabetes was also significantly accelerated in hot indoor environments. Only five studies reported the temperatures at which health outcomes worsened, with thresholds ranging between 26 °C and 32 °C. However, owing to insufficient data and the heterogeneity of the included studies (design, population, setting, exposure measures, outcomes and location), meta-analysis and an upper threshold determination was not feasible. CONCLUSIONS High indoor temperatures affect aspects of human health, with the strongest evidence for respiratory health, diabetes management and core schizophrenia and dementia symptoms. Exacerbation of symptoms in warm indoor environments has clinical relevance to at-risk groups and those caring for them. Care staff and facility managers need to be vigilant of high temperatures in care environments and should incorporate indoor overheating into their risk management and sustainability and/or climate change adaptation plans. The indoor temperature threshold at which adverse effects begin to occur remains unclear as studies seldom report the exposure-response relationship over a temperature continuum. Until there is extensive scientific data to support a maximum indoor temperature threshold, 26 °C may be the most suitable indoor temperature for at-risk groups in keeping with the existing guidance documents.
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Affiliation(s)
- S Tham
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, 16-18 Princes Gardens, London, SW7 1NE, UK.
| | - R Thompson
- Public Health England, Wellington House, 133-155 Waterloo Rd, Lambeth, London, SE1 8UG, UK.
| | - O Landeg
- Public Health England, Wellington House, 133-155 Waterloo Rd, Lambeth, London, SE1 8UG, UK.
| | - K A Murray
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, South Kensington, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.
| | - T Waite
- Public Health England, Wellington House, 133-155 Waterloo Rd, Lambeth, London, SE1 8UG, UK.
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Knight GM, Costelloe C, Murray KA, Robotham JV, Atun R, Holmes AH. Addressing the Unknowns of Antimicrobial Resistance: Quantifying and Mapping the Drivers of Burden. Clin Infect Dis 2019; 66:612-616. [PMID: 29020246 DOI: 10.1093/cid/cix765] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2017] [Accepted: 08/22/2017] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
The global threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has arisen through a network of complex interacting factors. Many different sources and transmission pathways contribute to the ever-growing burden of AMR in our clinical settings. The lack of data on these mechanisms and the relative importance of different factors causing the emergence and spread of AMR hampers our global efforts to effectively manage the risks. Importantly, we have little quantitative knowledge on the relative contributions of these sources and are likely to be targeting our interventions suboptimally as a result. Here we propose a systems mapping approach to address the urgent need for reliable and timely data to strengthen the response to AMR.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gwenan M Knight
- Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infection and Antimicrobial Resistance, National Institute of Health Research, and Department of Infectious Diseases
| | - Ceire Costelloe
- Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infection and Antimicrobial Resistance, National Institute of Health Research, and Department of Infectious Diseases
| | - Kris A Murray
- Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment.,School of Public Health, Imperial College London
| | - Julie V Robotham
- Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infection and Antimicrobial Resistance, National Institute of Health Research, and Department of Infectious Diseases.,Modelling and Economics Unit, Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance.,Control, Public Health England and Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rifat Atun
- Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts.,Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Alison H Holmes
- Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infection and Antimicrobial Resistance, National Institute of Health Research, and Department of Infectious Diseases.,Imperial College Healthcare National Health Service Trust, London, United Kingdom
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Shah HA, Huxley P, Elmes J, Murray KA. Agricultural land-uses consistently exacerbate infectious disease risks in Southeast Asia. Nat Commun 2019; 10:4299. [PMID: 31541099 PMCID: PMC6754503 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12333-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2019] [Accepted: 08/31/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Agriculture has been implicated as a potential driver of human infectious diseases. However, the generality of disease-agriculture relationships has not been systematically assessed, hindering efforts to incorporate human health considerations into land-use and development policies. Here we perform a meta-analysis with 34 eligible studies and show that people who live or work in agricultural land in Southeast Asia are on average 1.74 (CI 1.47-2.07) times as likely to be infected with a pathogen than those unexposed. Effect sizes are greatest for exposure to oil palm, rubber, and non-poultry based livestock farming and for hookworm (OR 2.42, CI 1.56-3.75), malaria (OR 2.00, CI 1.46-2.73), scrub typhus (OR 2.37, CI 1.41-3.96) and spotted fever group diseases (OR 3.91, CI 2.61-5.85). In contrast, no change in infection risk is detected for faecal-oral route diseases. Although responses vary by land-use and disease types, results suggest that agricultural land-uses exacerbate many infectious diseases in Southeast Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hiral A Shah
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
- Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment-Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Paul Huxley
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment-Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Jocelyn Elmes
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kris A Murray
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment-Imperial College London, London, UK
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41
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Murray KA, Olivero J, Roche B, Tiedt S, Guégan J. Pathogeography: leveraging the biogeography of human infectious diseases for global health management. Ecography 2018; 41:1411-1427. [PMID: 32313369 PMCID: PMC7163494 DOI: 10.1111/ecog.03625] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/06/2018] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Biogeography is an implicit and fundamental component of almost every dimension of modern biology, from natural selection and speciation to invasive species and biodiversity management. However, biogeography has rarely been integrated into human or veterinary medicine nor routinely leveraged for global health management. Here we review the theory and application of biogeography to the research and management of human infectious diseases, an integration we refer to as 'pathogeography'. Pathogeography represents a promising framework for understanding and decomposing the spatial distributions, diversity patterns and emergence risks of human infectious diseases into interpretable components of dynamic socio-ecological systems. Analytical tools from biogeography are already helping to improve our understanding of individual infectious disease distributions and the processes that shape them in space and time. At higher levels of organization, biogeographical studies of diseases are rarer but increasing, improving our ability to describe and explain patterns that emerge at the level of disease communities (e.g. co-occurrence, diversity patterns, biogeographic regionalisation). Even in a highly globalized world most human infectious diseases remain constrained in their geographic distributions by ecological barriers to the dispersal or establishment of their causal pathogens, reservoir hosts and/or vectors. These same processes underpin the spatial arrangement of other taxa, such as mammalian biodiversity, providing a strong empirical 'prior' with which to assess the potential distributions of infectious diseases when data on their occurrence is unavailable or limited. In the absence of quality data, generalized biogeographic patterns could provide the earliest (and in some cases the only) insights into the potential distributions of many poorly known or emerging, or as-yet-unknown, infectious disease risks. Encouraging more community ecologists and biogeographers to collaborate with health professionals (and vice versa) has the potential to improve our understanding of infectious disease systems and identify novel management strategies to improve local, global and planetary health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kris A. Murray
- Grantham Inst. – Climate Change and the Environment and Dept of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyImperial College LondonUK
| | | | - Benjamin Roche
- Inst. de Recherche pour le DéveloppementUMI IRD/UPMC 209 UMMISCOBondyFrance
- Depto de Etología, Fauna Silvestre y Animales de Laboratorio, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y ZootecniaUniv. Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMéxico
- Inst. de Recherche pour le DéveloppementHealth and Societies Dept, UMR MIVEGEC IRD‐CNRS‐Montpellier Univ.France
| | - Sonia Tiedt
- School of Public HealthImperial College LondonUK
| | - Jean‐Francois Guégan
- Inst. de Recherche pour le DéveloppementHealth and Societies Dept, UMR MIVEGEC IRD‐CNRS‐Montpellier Univ.France
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42
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O'Hanlon SJ, Rieux A, Farrer RA, Rosa GM, Waldman B, Bataille A, Kosch TA, Murray KA, Brankovics B, Fumagalli M, Martin MD, Wales N, Alvarado-Rybak M, Bates KA, Berger L, Böll S, Brookes L, Clare F, Courtois EA, Cunningham AA, Doherty-Bone TM, Ghosh P, Gower DJ, Hintz WE, Höglund J, Jenkinson TS, Lin CF, Laurila A, Loyau A, Martel A, Meurling S, Miaud C, Minting P, Pasmans F, Schmeller DS, Schmidt BR, Shelton JMG, Skerratt LF, Smith F, Soto-Azat C, Spagnoletti M, Tessa G, Toledo LF, Valenzuela-Sánchez A, Verster R, Vörös J, Webb RJ, Wierzbicki C, Wombwell E, Zamudio KR, Aanensen DM, James TY, Gilbert MTP, Weldon C, Bosch J, Balloux F, Garner TWJ, Fisher MC. Recent Asian origin of chytrid fungi causing global amphibian declines. Science 2018; 360:621-627. [PMID: 29748278 DOI: 10.1126/science.aar1965] [Citation(s) in RCA: 274] [Impact Index Per Article: 45.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2017] [Accepted: 03/29/2018] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Globalized infectious diseases are causing species declines worldwide, but their source often remains elusive. We used whole-genome sequencing to solve the spatiotemporal origins of the most devastating panzootic to date, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a proximate driver of global amphibian declines. We traced the source of B. dendrobatidis to the Korean peninsula, where one lineage, BdASIA-1, exhibits the genetic hallmarks of an ancestral population that seeded the panzootic. We date the emergence of this pathogen to the early 20th century, coinciding with the global expansion of commercial trade in amphibians, and we show that intercontinental transmission is ongoing. Our findings point to East Asia as a geographic hotspot for B. dendrobatidis biodiversity and the original source of these lineages that now parasitize amphibians worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon J O'Hanlon
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK. .,Institute of Zoology, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Adrien Rieux
- CIRAD, UMR PVBMT, 97410 St. Pierre, Reunion, France
| | - Rhys A Farrer
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
| | - Gonçalo M Rosa
- Institute of Zoology, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.,Department of Biology, University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557, USA.,Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (CE3C), Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Bruce Waldman
- Laboratory of Behavioral and Population Ecology, School of Biological Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, South Korea
| | - Arnaud Bataille
- Laboratory of Behavioral and Population Ecology, School of Biological Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, South Korea.,CIRAD, UMR ASTRE, F-34398 Montpellier, France
| | - Tiffany A Kosch
- Laboratory of Behavioral and Population Ecology, School of Biological Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, South Korea.,One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
| | - Kris A Murray
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
| | - Balázs Brankovics
- Westerdijk Fungal Biodiversity Institute, Uppsalalaan 8, 3584CT Utrecht, Netherlands.,Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 XH Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Matteo Fumagalli
- Department of Life Sciences, Silwood Park Campus, Imperial College London, Ascot, UK.,UCL Genetics Institute, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Michael D Martin
- Department of Natural History, NTNU University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Erling Skakkes gate 49, NO-7012 Trondheim, Norway.,Centre for GeoGenetics, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 5-7, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Nathan Wales
- Centre for GeoGenetics, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 5-7, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Mario Alvarado-Rybak
- Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad, Facultad de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Andres Bello, Republica 440, Santiago, Chile
| | - Kieran A Bates
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.,Institute of Zoology, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Lee Berger
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
| | - Susanne Böll
- Agency for Population Ecology and Nature Conservancy, Gerbrunn, Germany
| | - Lola Brookes
- Institute of Zoology, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Frances Clare
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.,Institute of Zoology, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Elodie A Courtois
- Laboratoire Ecologie, Évolution, Interactions des Systèmes Amazoniens (LEEISA), Université de Guyane, CNRS, IFREMER, 97300 Cayenne, French Guiana
| | | | | | - Pria Ghosh
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.,Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, Private Bag x6001, North-West University, Potchefstroom 2520, South Africa
| | - David J Gower
- Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
| | - William E Hintz
- Biology Department, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 3N5, Canada
| | - Jacob Höglund
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, EBC, Uppsala University, Norbyv. 18D, SE-75236, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Thomas S Jenkinson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - Chun-Fu Lin
- Zoology Division, Endemic Species Research Institute, 1 Ming-shen East Road, Jiji, Nantou 552, Taiwan
| | - Anssi Laurila
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, EBC, Uppsala University, Norbyv. 18D, SE-75236, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Adeline Loyau
- Department of Conservation Biology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, 04318 Leipzig, Germany.,EcoLab, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - An Martel
- Department of Pathology, Bacteriology and Avian Diseases, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, B-9820 Merelbeke, Belgium
| | - Sara Meurling
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, EBC, Uppsala University, Norbyv. 18D, SE-75236, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Claude Miaud
- PSL Research University, CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, EPHE, Montpellier, France
| | - Pete Minting
- Amphibian and Reptile Conservation (ARC) Trust, Boscombe, Bournemouth, Dorset BH1 4AP, UK
| | - Frank Pasmans
- Department of Pathology, Bacteriology and Avian Diseases, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ghent University, B-9820 Merelbeke, Belgium
| | - Dirk S Schmeller
- Department of Conservation Biology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, 04318 Leipzig, Germany.,EcoLab, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INPT, UPS, Toulouse, France
| | - Benedikt R Schmidt
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland, and Info Fauna Karch, UniMail-Bâtiment G, Bellevaux 51, 2000 Neuchâtel, Switzerland
| | - Jennifer M G Shelton
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
| | - Lee F Skerratt
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
| | - Freya Smith
- Institute of Zoology, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.,National Wildlife Management Centre, APHA, Woodchester Park, Gloucestershire GL10 3UJ, UK
| | - Claudio Soto-Azat
- Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad, Facultad de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Andres Bello, Republica 440, Santiago, Chile
| | | | - Giulia Tessa
- Non-profit Association Zirichiltaggi-Sardinia Wildlife Conservation, Strada Vicinale Filigheddu 62/C, I-07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Luís Felipe Toledo
- Laboratório de História Natural de Anfíbios Brasileiros (LaHNAB), Departamento de Biologia Animal, Instituto de Biologia, Unicamp, Campinas, Brazil
| | - Andrés Valenzuela-Sánchez
- Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad, Facultad de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Universidad Andres Bello, Republica 440, Santiago, Chile.,ONG Ranita de Darwin, Nataniel Cox 152, Santiago, Chile
| | - Ruhan Verster
- Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, Private Bag x6001, North-West University, Potchefstroom 2520, South Africa
| | - Judit Vörös
- Collection of Amphibians and Reptiles, Department of Zoology, Hungarian Natural History Museum, Budapest, Baross u. 13., 1088, Hungary
| | - Rebecca J Webb
- One Health Research Group, College of Public Health, Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
| | - Claudia Wierzbicki
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK
| | - Emma Wombwell
- Institute of Zoology, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Kelly R Zamudio
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA
| | - David M Aanensen
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.,Centre for Genomic Pathogen Surveillance, Wellcome Genome Campus, Cambridgeshire, UK
| | - Timothy Y James
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - M Thomas P Gilbert
- Department of Natural History, NTNU University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Erling Skakkes gate 49, NO-7012 Trondheim, Norway.,Centre for GeoGenetics, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 5-7, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Ché Weldon
- Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, Private Bag x6001, North-West University, Potchefstroom 2520, South Africa
| | - Jaime Bosch
- Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC c/ Jose Gutierrez Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain
| | - François Balloux
- UCL Genetics Institute, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Trenton W J Garner
- Institute of Zoology, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.,Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, Private Bag x6001, North-West University, Potchefstroom 2520, South Africa.,Non-profit Association Zirichiltaggi-Sardinia Wildlife Conservation, Strada Vicinale Filigheddu 62/C, I-07100 Sassari, Italy
| | - Matthew C Fisher
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UK.
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Lachish S, Murray KA. The Certainty of Uncertainty: Potential Sources of Bias and Imprecision in Disease Ecology Studies. Front Vet Sci 2018; 5:90. [PMID: 29872662 PMCID: PMC5972326 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2018.00090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2018] [Accepted: 04/12/2018] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Wildlife diseases have important implications for wildlife and human health, the preservation of biodiversity and the resilience of ecosystems. However, understanding disease dynamics and the impacts of pathogens in wild populations is challenging because these complex systems can rarely, if ever, be observed without error. Uncertainty in disease ecology studies is commonly defined in terms of either heterogeneity in detectability (due to variation in the probability of encountering, capturing, or detecting individuals in their natural habitat) or uncertainty in disease state assignment (due to misclassification errors or incomplete information). In reality, however, uncertainty in disease ecology studies extends beyond these components of observation error and can arise from multiple varied processes, each of which can lead to bias and a lack of precision in parameter estimates. Here, we present an inventory of the sources of potential uncertainty in studies that attempt to quantify disease-relevant parameters from wild populations (e.g., prevalence, incidence, transmission rates, force of infection, risk of infection, persistence times, and disease-induced impacts). We show that uncertainty can arise via processes pertaining to aspects of the disease system, the study design, the methods used to study the system, and the state of knowledge of the system, and that uncertainties generated via one process can propagate through to others because of interactions between the numerous biological, methodological and environmental factors at play. We show that many of these sources of uncertainty may not be immediately apparent to researchers (for example, unidentified crypticity among vectors, hosts or pathogens, a mismatch between the temporal scale of sampling and disease dynamics, demographic or social misclassification), and thus have received comparatively little consideration in the literature to date. Finally, we discuss the type of bias or imprecision introduced by these varied sources of uncertainty and briefly present appropriate sampling and analytical methods to account for, or minimise, their influence on estimates of disease-relevant parameters. This review should assist researchers and practitioners to navigate the pitfalls of uncertainty in wildlife disease ecology studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shelly Lachish
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Kris A. Murray
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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Osama T, Brindley D, Majeed A, Murray KA, Shah H, Toumazos M, Van Velthoven M, Car J, Wells G, Meinert E. Teaching the relationship between health and climate change: a systematic scoping review protocol. BMJ Open 2018; 8:e020330. [PMID: 29780026 PMCID: PMC5961595 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The observed and projected impacts of climate change on human health are significant. While climate change has gathered global momentum and is taught frequently, the extent to which the relationships between climate change and health are taught remains uncertain. Education provides an opportunity to create public engagement on these issues, but the extent to which historical implementation of climate health education could be leveraged is not well understood. To address this gap, we propose to conduct a scoping review of all forms of teaching that have been used to illustrate the health effects of climate change between 2005 and 2017, coinciding with a turning point in the public health and climate change agendas following the 2005 Group of 7/8 (G7/8) Summit. METHODS AND ANALYSIS Using Arksey/O'Malley's and Levac's methodological framework, MEDLINE/PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Education Resource Information Centre, Web of Science, Global Health, Health Management Information Consortium, Georef, Ebsco and PROSPERO will be systematically searched. Predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied by two independent reviewers to determine study eligibility. Studies published in English and after 2005 only will be examined. Following selection of studies, data will be extracted and analysed. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION No ethical approval is required as exclusively secondary data will be used. Our findings will be communicated to the European Institute of Innovation & Technology Health-Knowledge and Innovation Communities to assist in the development of a FutureLearn Massive Open Online Course on the health effects of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tasnime Osama
- Global eHealth Unit, Department of Primary Care and Public Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - David Brindley
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Azeem Majeed
- Department of Primary Care and Public Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Kris A Murray
- Faculty of Natural Sciences, The Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Hiral Shah
- Faculty of Natural Sciences, The Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Mel Toumazos
- Global eHealth Unit, Department of Primary Care and Public Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Michelle Van Velthoven
- Global eHealth Unit, Department of Primary Care and Public Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Josip Car
- Global eHealth Unit, Department of Primary Care and Public Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Glenn Wells
- Oxford Academic Health Science Centre, Oxford, UK
| | - Edward Meinert
- Global eHealth Unit, Department of Primary Care and Public Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
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45
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Allen T, Murray KA, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Morse SS, Rondinini C, Di Marco M, Breit N, Olival KJ, Daszak P. Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases. Nat Commun 2017; 8:1124. [PMID: 29066781 PMCID: PMC5654761 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-00923-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 417] [Impact Index Per Article: 59.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2016] [Accepted: 08/07/2017] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Zoonoses originating from wildlife represent a significant threat to global health, security and economic growth, and combatting their emergence is a public health priority. However, our understanding of the mechanisms underlying their emergence remains rudimentary. Here we update a global database of emerging infectious disease (EID) events, create a novel measure of reporting effort, and fit boosted regression tree models to analyze the demographic, environmental and biological correlates of their occurrence. After accounting for reporting effort, we show that zoonotic EID risk is elevated in forested tropical regions experiencing land-use changes and where wildlife biodiversity (mammal species richness) is high. We present a new global hotspot map of spatial variation in our zoonotic EID risk index, and partial dependence plots illustrating relationships between events and predictors. Our results may help to improve surveillance and long-term EID monitoring programs, and design field experiments to test underlying mechanisms of zoonotic disease emergence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Toph Allen
- EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY, 10001, USA
| | - Kris A Murray
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, St Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London, W2 1PG, UK.,Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London, SW7 2AZ, UK
| | | | - Stephen S Morse
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, 722 West 168th St #1504, New York, NY, 10032, USA
| | - Carlo Rondinini
- Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale dell'Università 32, 00185, Rome, Italy
| | - Moreno Di Marco
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, Centre for Biosiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia.,School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia
| | - Nathan Breit
- EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY, 10001, USA
| | - Kevin J Olival
- EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY, 10001, USA
| | - Peter Daszak
- EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY, 10001, USA.
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Al-Qattan MM, Murray KA, El-Shayeb A. Arteriovenous Vascular Malformations Confined to the Hand: An Algorithm of Management Based On a New Classification. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2016; 31:266-73. [PMID: 16563577 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhsb.2006.01.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2005] [Revised: 01/20/2006] [Accepted: 01/31/2006] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Management of arteriovenous malformations confined to the hand is diverse and ranges from conservative measures to amputation. This paper is a retrospective review of 13 patients with arteriovenous malformations of the hand who were managed using an algorithm of treatment which considered the clinical presentation and the anatomical structure of the lesion.
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Affiliation(s)
- M M Al-Qattan
- Division of Plastic Surgery, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
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Voyles J, Kilpatrick AM, Collins JP, Fisher MC, Frick WF, McCallum H, Willis CKR, Blehert DS, Murray KA, Puschendorf R, Rosenblum EB, Bolker BM, Cheng TL, Langwig KE, Lindner DL, Toothman M, Wilber MQ, Briggs CJ. Moving Beyond Too Little, Too Late: Managing Emerging Infectious Diseases in Wild Populations Requires International Policy and Partnerships. Ecohealth 2015; 12:404-7. [PMID: 25287279 PMCID: PMC7088098 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-014-0980-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2014] [Revised: 08/28/2014] [Accepted: 09/02/2014] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Jamie Voyles
- Department of Biology, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, New Mexico, USA.
| | - A Marm Kilpatrick
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - James P Collins
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
| | - Matthew C Fisher
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College of London, London, UK
| | - Winifred F Frick
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Hamish McCallum
- School of Environment, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia
| | - Craig K R Willis
- Department of Biology, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - David S Blehert
- United States Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | | | | | - Erica Bree Rosenblum
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Benjamin M Bolker
- Departments of Mathematics & Statistics and Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Tina L Cheng
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Kate E Langwig
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Daniel L Lindner
- United States Forest Service, Center for Mycology Research, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Mary Toothman
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA
| | - Mark Q Wilber
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA
| | - Cheryl J Briggs
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USA
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48
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Suzán G, García-Peña GE, Castro-Arellano I, Rico O, Rubio AV, Tolsá MJ, Roche B, Hosseini PR, Rizzoli A, Murray KA, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Vittecoq M, Bailly X, Aguirre AA, Daszak P, Prieur-Richard AH, Mills JN, Guégan JF. Metacommunity and phylogenetic structure determine wildlife and zoonotic infectious disease patterns in time and space. Ecol Evol 2015; 5:865-73. [PMID: 25750713 PMCID: PMC4338969 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2014] [Revised: 12/22/2014] [Accepted: 01/02/2015] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
The potential for disease transmission at the interface of wildlife, domestic animals and humans has become a major concern for public health and conservation biology. Research in this subject is commonly conducted at local scales while the regional context is neglected. We argue that prevalence of infection at local and regional levels is influenced by three mechanisms occurring at the landscape level in a metacommunity context. First, (1) dispersal, colonization, and extinction of pathogens, reservoir or vector hosts, and nonreservoir hosts, may be due to stochastic and niche-based processes, thus determining distribution of all species, and then their potential interactions, across local communities (metacommunity structure). Second, (2) anthropogenic processes may drive environmental filtering of hosts, nonhosts, and pathogens. Finally, (3) phylogenetic diversity relative to reservoir or vector host(s), within and between local communities may facilitate pathogen persistence and circulation. Using a metacommunity approach, public heath scientists may better evaluate the factors that predispose certain times and places for the origin and emergence of infectious diseases. The multidisciplinary approach we describe fits within a comprehensive One Health and Ecohealth framework addressing zoonotic infectious disease outbreaks and their relationship to their hosts, other animals, humans, and the environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerardo Suzán
- Departamento de Etología, Fauna Silvestre y Animales de Laboratorio, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMéxico, Distrito Federal, México
| | - Gabriel E García-Peña
- Departamento de Etología, Fauna Silvestre y Animales de Laboratorio, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMéxico, Distrito Federal, México
- UMR MIVEGEC, Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution et Contrôle UMR 5290 CNRS-IRD-UM1-UM2, Centre de Recherche IRD34394, Montpellier Cedex 5, France
- Centre de Synthèse et d'Analyse sur la Biodiversité – CESAB13857, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 3, France
| | | | - Oscar Rico
- Departamento de Etología, Fauna Silvestre y Animales de Laboratorio, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMéxico, Distrito Federal, México
| | - André V Rubio
- Departamento de Etología, Fauna Silvestre y Animales de Laboratorio, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMéxico, Distrito Federal, México
| | - María J Tolsá
- Departamento de Etología, Fauna Silvestre y Animales de Laboratorio, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMéxico, Distrito Federal, México
| | - Benjamin Roche
- UMR MIVEGEC, Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution et Contrôle UMR 5290 CNRS-IRD-UM1-UM2, Centre de Recherche IRD34394, Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | | | - Annapaola Rizzoli
- Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology Department Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'AdigeTrento, Italy
| | | | | | - Marion Vittecoq
- UMR MIVEGEC, Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution et Contrôle UMR 5290 CNRS-IRD-UM1-UM2, Centre de Recherche IRD34394, Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - Xavier Bailly
- INRA, UR346 Epidémiologie AnimaleSaint Genès Champanelle, France
| | - A Alonso Aguirre
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason UniversityFairfax, Virginia
| | | | | | - James N Mills
- Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution Program, Emory UniversityAtlanta, Georgia
| | - Jean-Francois Guégan
- UMR MIVEGEC, Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution et Contrôle UMR 5290 CNRS-IRD-UM1-UM2, Centre de Recherche IRD34394, Montpellier Cedex 5, France
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Murray KA, Verde Arregoitia LD, Davidson A, Di Marco M, Di Fonzo MMI. Threat to the point: improving the value of comparative extinction risk analysis for conservation action. Glob Chang Biol 2014; 20:483-494. [PMID: 23966334 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12366] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2013] [Accepted: 08/13/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Comparative extinction risk analysis is a common approach for assessing the relative plight of biodiversity and making conservation recommendations. However, the usefulness of such analyses for conservation practice has been questioned. One reason for underperformance may be that threats arising from global environmental changes (e.g., habitat loss, invasive species, climate change) are often overlooked, despite being widely regarded as proximal drivers of species' endangerment. We explore this problem by (i) reviewing the use of threats in this field and (ii) quantitatively investigating the effects of threat exclusion on the interpretation and potential application of extinction risk model results. We show that threat variables are routinely (59%) identified as significant predictors of extinction risk, yet while most studies (78%) include extrinsic factors of some kind (e.g., geographic or bioclimatic information), the majority (63%) do not include threats. Despite low overall usage, studies are increasingly employing threats to explain patterns of extinction risk. However, most continue to employ methods developed for the analysis of heritable traits (e.g., body size, fecundity), which may be poorly suited to the treatment of nonheritable predictors including threats. In our global mammal and continental amphibian extinction risk case studies, omitting threats reduced model predictive performance, but more importantly (i) reduced mechanistic information relevant to management; (ii) resulted in considerable disagreement in species classifications (12% and 5% for amphibians and mammals, respectively, translating to dozens and hundreds of species); and (iii) caused even greater disagreement (20-60%) in a downstream conservation application (species ranking). We conclude that the use of threats in comparative extinction risk analysis is important and increasing but currently in the early stages of development. Priorities for future studies include improving uptake, availability, quality and quantification of threat data, and developing analytical methods that yield more robust, relevant and tangible products for conservation applications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kris A Murray
- EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, New York, NY, USA
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50
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Anthony SJ, Epstein JH, Murray KA, Navarrete-Macias I, Zambrana-Torrelio CM, Solovyov A, Ojeda-Flores R, Arrigo NC, Islam A, Ali Khan S, Hosseini P, Bogich TL, Olival KJ, Sanchez-Leon MD, Karesh WB, Goldstein T, Luby SP, Morse SS, Mazet JAK, Daszak P, Lipkin WI. A strategy to estimate unknown viral diversity in mammals. mBio 2013; 4:e00598-13. [PMID: 24003179 PMCID: PMC3760253 DOI: 10.1128/mbio.00598-13] [Citation(s) in RCA: 245] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2013] [Accepted: 08/01/2013] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
UNLABELLED The majority of emerging zoonoses originate in wildlife, and many are caused by viruses. However, there are no rigorous estimates of total viral diversity (here termed "virodiversity") for any wildlife species, despite the utility of this to future surveillance and control of emerging zoonoses. In this case study, we repeatedly sampled a mammalian wildlife host known to harbor emerging zoonotic pathogens (the Indian Flying Fox, Pteropus giganteus) and used PCR with degenerate viral family-level primers to discover and analyze the occurrence patterns of 55 viruses from nine viral families. We then adapted statistical techniques used to estimate biodiversity in vertebrates and plants and estimated the total viral richness of these nine families in P. giganteus to be 58 viruses. Our analyses demonstrate proof-of-concept of a strategy for estimating viral richness and provide the first statistically supported estimate of the number of undiscovered viruses in a mammalian host. We used a simple extrapolation to estimate that there are a minimum of 320,000 mammalian viruses awaiting discovery within these nine families, assuming all species harbor a similar number of viruses, with minimal turnover between host species. We estimate the cost of discovering these viruses to be ~$6.3 billion (or ~$1.4 billion for 85% of the total diversity), which if annualized over a 10-year study time frame would represent a small fraction of the cost of many pandemic zoonoses. IMPORTANCE Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in viral discovery efforts. However, most lack rigorous systematic design, which limits our ability to understand viral diversity and its ecological drivers and reduces their value to public health intervention. Here, we present a new framework for the discovery of novel viruses in wildlife and use it to make the first-ever estimate of the number of viruses that exist in a mammalian host. As pathogens continue to emerge from wildlife, this estimate allows us to put preliminary bounds around the potential size of the total zoonotic pool and facilitates a better understanding of where best to allocate resources for the subsequent discovery of global viral diversity.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Isamara Navarrete-Macias
- Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | | | - Alexander Solovyov
- Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Rafael Ojeda-Flores
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria and Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico
| | - Nicole C. Arrigo
- Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | | | - Shahneaz Ali Khan
- Chittagong Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Chittagong, Bangladesh
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Tracey Goldstein
- One Health Institute & Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California Davis, Davis, California, USA
| | - Stephen P. Luby
- International Center for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Jonna A. K. Mazet
- One Health Institute & Wildlife Health Center, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California Davis, Davis, California, USA
| | | | - W. Ian Lipkin
- Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
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