Integrating human behavior and snake ecology with agent-based models to predict snakebite in high risk landscapes

Study of defensive behavior of a venomous snake as a new approach to understand snakebite

Snakebites affect millions of people worldwide. The majority of research and management about snakebites focus on venom and antivenom, with less attention given to snake ecology. The fundamental factor in snakebites is the snakes' defensive biting behavior. Herein we examine the effects of environmental variables (temperature, time of day, and human stimulus) and biological variables (sex and body size) on the biting behavior of a medically significant pit viper species in Brazil, Bothrops jararaca (Viperidae), and associate it with the epidemiology of snakebites. Through experimental simulations of encounters between humans and snakes, we obtained behavioral models applicable to epidemiological situations in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. We found a significant overlap between behavioral, morphological, environmental, and epidemiological data. Variables that increase snakebites in epidemiological data also enhance the tendency of snakes to bite defensively, resulting in snakebites. We propose that snakebite incidents are influenced by environmental and morphological factors, affecting the behavior of snakes and the proportion of incidents. Thus, investigating behavior of snakes related to snakebite incidents is a valuable tool for a better understanding of the epidemiology of these events, helping the prediction and, thus, prevention of snakebites.

Individual-Specific Animated Profiles of Mental Health

How important is the timing of the pretreatment evaluation? If we consider mental health to be a relatively fixed condition, the specific timing (e.g., day, hour) of the evaluation is immaterial and often determined on the basis of technical considerations. Indeed, the fundamental assumption underlying the vast majority of psychotherapy research and practice is that mental health is a state that can be captured in a one-dimensional snapshot. If this fundamental assumption, underlying 80 years of empirical research and practice, is incorrect, it may help explain why for decades psychotherapy failed to rise above the 50% efficacy rate in the treatment of mental-health disorders, especially depression, a heterogeneous disorder and the leading cause of disability worldwide. Based on recent studies suggesting within-individual dynamics, this article proposes that mental health and its underlying therapeutic mechanisms have underlying intrinsic dynamics that manifest across dimensions. Computational psychotherapy is needed to develop individual-specific pretreatment animated profiles of mental health. Such individual-specific animated profiles are expected to improve the ability to select the optimal treatment for each patient, devise adequate treatment plans, and adjust them on the basis of ongoing evaluations of mental-health dynamics, creating a new understanding of therapeutic change as a transition toward a more adaptive animated profile.

Snakebite epidemiology, outcomes and multi-cluster risk modelling in Eswatini

BACKGROUND

Halving snakebite morbidity and mortality by 2030 requires countries to develop both prevention and treatment strategies. The paucity of data on the global incidence and severity of snakebite envenoming causes challenges in prioritizing and mobilising resources for snakebite prevention and treatment. In line with the World Health Organisation's 2019 Snakebite Strategy, this study sought to investigate Eswatini's snakebite epidemiology and outcomes, and identify the socio-geographical factors associated with snakebite risk.

METHODOLOGY

Programmatic data from the Ministry of Health, Government of Eswatini 2019-2021, was used to assess the epidemiology and outcomes of snakebite in Eswatini. We developed a snake species richness map from the occurrence data of all venomous snakes of medical importance in Eswatini that was subjected to niche modelling. We formulated four risk indices using snake species richness, various geospatial datasets and reported snakebites. A multivariate cluster modelling approach using these indices was developed to estimate risk of snakebite and the outcomes of snakebite in Eswatini.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

An average of 466 snakebites was recorded annually in Eswatini. Bites were recorded across the entire country and peaked in the evening during summer months. Two cluster risk maps indicated areas of the country with a high probability of snakebite and a high probability of poor snakebite outcomes. The areas with the highest rate of snakebite risk were primarily in the rural and agricultural regions of the country.

SIGNIFICANCE

These models can be used to inform better snakebite prevention and treatment measures to enable Eswatini to meet the global goal of reducing snakebite morbidity and mortality by 50% by 2030. The supply chain challenges of antivenom affecting southern Africa and the high rates of snakebite identified in our study highlight the need for improved snakebite prevention and treatment tools that can be employed by health care workers stationed at rural, community clinics.

Who are the most affected by Bothrops snakebite envenoming in Brazil? A Clinical-epidemiological profile study among the regions of the country

Snakebite envenoming represents an important Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) that mainly affects tropical and subtropical developing countries according to the World Health Organization (WHO). As a priority issue in the tropics, it is estimated that accidental encounter between snakes and humans is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality among all NTDs in the world. In Brazil, an extremely diverse country with continental dimensions, snakebite envenoming is the second leading cause of reported human envenoming. Treating the disease has been an unprecedented challenge for Brazilian Health Systems for decades. Despite access to Antivenom therapy and distributing it free of charge across the country, Brazil faces numerous issues regarding the notification process and accurate treatment targeting for at-risk populations. Thus, this study aimed to identify the temporal epidemiological dynamics of accidents caused by Bothrops snakes in Brazil, the country's major group of venomous snakes, based on secondary information from the online database provided by The Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). For this purpose, reported Bothrops snakebites between 2012 and 2021 were counted, then the data were analyzed. We looked at the frequency, occurrence, mortality rates, case fatality rate (CFR), age and gender distribution, and the time lapse between the incident and the initiation of Antivenom therapy. The data were also organized considering regional variations of the country. Throughout the studied period, a total of 202,604 cases of envenoming caused by Bothrops spp. were notified, resulting in 766 fatalities. These accidents were found to occur in variable proportions across different regions in Brazil, with notable concentrations observed in the North, Northeast, and Southeast regions. The epidemiological profile of patients varied greatly between the regions, revealing that snake envenoming is much more a social, economic, and ecological problem than a medical one. In conclusion, our study provides an overview of the clinical and epidemiological profile of envenoming by Bothrops snakes in Brazil. Notably, this is the first study to present such information in a country as vast and diverse as Brazil, encompassing a comparative analysis of its regions using SINAN data, that proves to be a very useful national tool to improve the control and management of envenoming.

Broadening the research landscape in the field of snakebite envenoming: Towards a holistic perspective

Snakebite envenoming (SBE) is a neglected tropical disease that kills and maims hundreds of thousands of people yearly, particularly in impoverished rural settings of the Global South. Understanding the complexity of SBE and tackling this disease demands a transdisciplinary, One Health approach. There is a long-standing research tradition on SBE in toxinology and human medicine. In contrast, other disciplines, such as veterinary medicine or social sciences, still need to be better developed in this field, especially in countries with a high incidence of SBE. Broadening the disciplinary landscape, connecting various research approaches, methods, and data across disciplines and sectors, and engaging with communities affected by SBE in implementing evidence-based solutions are needed. This review summarizes areas that require strengthening to better understand the complexity of SBE and to generate a robust body of knowledge to be translated into effective public health interventions.

What drives the risk of being bitten by a viper? A fine spatial scale study in western France

Previous studies on viper bites in France have focused on clinical consequences of envenomation, efficacy of antivenom and epidemiology of bites. Herein, we wanted to clarify temporal and spatial patterns in bite incidence using a fine spatial scale (municipality level). We focused on viper bites recorded over the last 10 years in 4 regions of western France. We addressed the determinants of bite occurrence and number of bites considering the following variables: predicted probability of viper presence, species (V. aspis or V. berus), climatic data, tourism function rate, soil transformation and landscape use. 703 bite cases were retained with significant disparities between areas. Bites occurred either during a garden-related activity (339 cases, 51.2%) or during an activity in the countryside (300 cases, 45.3%). The probability of presence of a viper at the municipality level positively influenced the risk of being bitten (multiplied by 3 for a variation in probability of 0.25 from 0.5) but varied between species (lower in V. berus than V. aspis). Artificial land development had a positive effect on bite risks. Finally, a tourism function rate above 50 beds/100 inhabitants was strongly associated with an increase in the risk of occurrence and frequency of bites. Overall, viper bites recorded in our study were concentrated on the south coastline of Pays de la Loire region. The coastal towns are significant areas of tourist attraction and are located close to preserved semi-natural landscapes that provide favorable habitats for vipers. This convergence may favor human/wildlife encounters.

Climate change maladaptation for health: Agricultural practice against shifting seasonal rainfall affects snakebite risk for farmers in the tropics

Snakebite affects more than 1.8 million people annually. Factors explaining snakebite variability include farmers' behaviors, snake ecology and climate. One unstudied issue is how farmers' adaptation to novel climates affect their health. Here we examined potential impacts of adaptation on snakebite using individual-based simulations, focusing on strategies meant to counteract major crop yield decline because of changing rainfall in Sri Lanka. For rubber cropping, adaptation led to a 33% increase in snakebite incidence per farmer work hour because of work during risky months, but a 17% decrease in total annual snakebites because of decreased labor in plantations overall. Rice farming adaptation decreased snakebites by 16%, because of shifting labor towards safer months, whereas tea adaptation led to a general increase. These results indicate that adaptation could have both a positive and negative effect, potentially intensified by ENSO. Our research highlights the need for assessing adaptation strategies for potential health maladaptations.

A generalized framework for estimating snakebite underreporting using statistical models: A study in Colombia

BACKGROUND

Snakebite envenoming is a neglected tropical disease affecting deprived populations, and its burden is underestimated in some regions where patients prefer using traditional medicine, case reporting systems are deficient, or health systems are inaccessible to at-risk populations. Thus, the development of strategies to optimize disease management is a major challenge. We propose a framework that can be used to estimate total snakebite incidence at a fine political scale.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

First, we generated fine-scale snakebite risk maps based on the distribution of venomous snakes in Colombia. We then used a generalized mixed-effect model that estimates total snakebite incidence based on risk maps, poverty, and travel time to the nearest medical center. Finally, we calibrated our model with snakebite data in Colombia from 2010 to 2019 using the Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo algorithm. Our results suggest that 10.19% of total snakebite cases (532.26 yearly envenomings) are not reported and these snakebite victims do not seek medical attention, and that populations in the Orinoco and Amazonian regions are the most at-risk and show the highest percentage of underreporting. We also found that variables such as precipitation of the driest month and mean temperature of the warmest quarter influences the suitability of environments for venomous snakes rather than absolute temperature or rainfall.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our framework permits snakebite underreporting to be estimated using data on snakebite incidence and surveillance, presence locations for the most medically significant venomous snake species, and openly available information on population size, poverty, climate, land cover, roads, and the locations of medical centers. Thus, our algorithm could be used in other countries to estimate total snakebite incidence and improve disease management strategies; however, this framework does not serve as a replacement for a surveillance system, which should be made a priority in countries facing similar public health challenges.

A retrospective study of clinical and epidemiological characteristics of snakebite in Napo Province, Ecuadorian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Snakebite envenoming remains a relevant public health problem in tropical and subtropical countries. In Ecuador, this is particularly true in an area of great diversity like the Amazon region. Nevertheless, there is scarce information about epidemiological and clinical characteristics of these accidents in this area.

METHODS

This was a descriptive and retrospective study of snakebite cases treated at a tertiary hospital in the Napo Province, Ecuadorian Amazon, from 2015 to 2019. We collected sociodemographic and snakebite-related information, clinical aspects and the use of antivenom and antibiotics from medical records.

RESULTS

Information from 133 snakebite accidents was reviewed in this time period. Reports of snakebite envenoming decreased over the years. In total, 67% of those bitten were from nearby indigenous communities, which were the most affected groups. When a species was identified, Bothrops atrox was responsible for the highest number of cases registered. Local clinical manifestations were more frequent than systemic signs, in keeping with the typical effects produced by bothropic venoms. Additionally, data showed that more antivenom vials were given than those suggested by the protocol of the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, in proportion to the grade of severity. Finally, we identified a low incidence of adverse reactions with antivenom administration, as well as a frequent use of antibiotics.

CONCLUSIONS

The profile of snakebite accidents in the Napo Province is very similar to that described for other localities in the Amazon region of Ecuador and neighboring countries, with its challenges and limitations. Such aspects underlie the importance of establishing a robust and science-based public health program to respond to this frequent, but neglected, tropical disease.

Current situation of snakebites envenomation in the Neotropics: Biotechnology, a versatile tool in the production of antivenoms

Snakebite envenomation is a neglected tropical disease that affects millions of people around the world with a great impact on health and the economy. Unfortunately, public health programs do not include this kind of disease as a priority in their social programs. Cases of snakebite envenomations in the Neotropics are inaccurate due to inadequate disease management from medical records to the choice of treatments. Victims of snakebite envenomation are primarily found in impoverished agricultural areas where remote conditions limit the availability of antivenom. Antivenom serum is the only Food and Drug Administration-approved treatment used up to date. However, it has several disadvantages in terms of safety and effectiveness. This review provides a comprehensive insight dealing with the current epidemiological status of snakebites in the Neotropics and technologies employed in antivenom production. Also, modern biotechnological tools such as transcriptomic, proteomic, immunogenic, high-density peptide microarray and epitope mapping are highlighted for producing new-generation antivenom sera. These results allow us to propose strategic solutions in the Public Health Sector for managing this disease. Keywords: antivenom, biotechnology, neglected tropical disease, omics, recombinant antibody.

Investigations on the Changes of Serum Proteins in Rabbits after Trimeresurus stejnegeri Venom Injection via Mass Spectrometry-Based Proteomics

Purpose

There are few studies on protein phosphorylation in the process of snake poisoning. The purpose of this study was to investigate the toxic mechanism of Trimeresurus stejnegeri at the protein level by determining the differential expression of phosphorylated proteins in rabbits after poisoning using proteomics.

Methods

The Trimeresurus stejnegeri venom model in rabbits was established by intramuscular injection of 20 mg/kg venom. The serum was collected and the differential expression of phosphorylated proteins in the serum was determined by the iTRAQ technology, TiO2 enriched phosphorylated peptides, and the mass spectrometry analysis. The functional analysis was conducted using ClueGO software and the related mechanism was evaluated by the network analysis of biological interaction. The expression level of related proteins was determined by the Western blotting assay.

Results

Compared to the control group, 77 differentially expressed proteins were observed in the model group. These proteins were closely associated with the complement and agglomerate cascade signaling pathways, the HIF signaling pathway, the pentose phosphate pathway, and the cholesterol metabolism signaling pathway. According to the results of network analysis, TF and SCL16A1 were determined as the core proteins, which were identified by the Western blotting assay.

Conclusion

The present study provided valuable phosphorylation signal transduction resources for investigating the toxic mechanism and the therapies for Trimeresurus stejnegeri poisoning.

A mechanistic model of snakebite as a zoonosis: Envenoming incidence is driven by snake ecology, socioeconomics and its impacts on snakes

Snakebite is the only WHO-listed, not infectious neglected tropical disease (NTD), although its eco-epidemiology is similar to that of zoonotic infections: envenoming occurs after a vertebrate host contacts a human. Accordingly, snakebite risk represents the interaction between snake and human factors, but their quantification has been limited by data availability. Models of infectious disease transmission are instrumental for the mitigation of NTDs and zoonoses. Here, we represented snake-human interactions with disease transmission models to approximate geospatial estimates of snakebite incidence in Sri Lanka, a global hotspot. Snakebites and envenomings are described by the product of snake and human abundance, mirroring directly transmitted zoonoses. We found that human-snake contact rates vary according to land cover (surrogate of occupation and socioeconomic status), the impacts of humans and climate on snake abundance, and by snake species. Our findings show that modelling snakebite as zoonosis provides a mechanistic eco-epidemiological basis to understand snakebites, and the possible implications of global environmental and demographic change for the burden of snakebite.

Disentangling snakebite dynamics in Colombia: How does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns?

The role of climate driving zoonotic diseases’ population dynamics has typically been addressed via retrospective analyses of national aggregated incidence records. A central question in epidemiology has been whether seasonal and interannual cycles are driven by climate variation or generated by socioeconomic factors. Here, we use compartmental models to quantify the role of rainfall and temperature in the dynamics of snakebite, which is one of the primary neglected tropical diseases. We took advantage of space-time datasets of snakebite incidence, rainfall, and temperature for Colombia and combined it with stochastic compartmental models and iterated filtering methods to show the role of rainfall-driven seasonality modulating the encounter frequency with venomous snakes. Then we identified six zones with different rainfall patterns to demonstrate that the relationship between rainfall and snakebite incidence was heterogeneous in space. We show that rainfall only drives snakebite incidence in regions with marked dry seasons, where rainfall becomes the limiting resource, while temperature does not modulate snakebite incidence. In addition, the encounter frequency differs between regions, and it is higher in regions where Bothrops atrox can be found. Our results show how the heterogeneous spatial distribution of snakebite risk seasonality in the country may be related to important traits of venomous snakes’ natural history.

Snakebite envenoming is a neglected tropical disease characterized by its high burden on the rural population and high mortality if antivenom is not administered. The ecology of this health problem is not well-understood; however, approaches to address the temporal are growing. So far, we know that rainfall can play an important role in driving snakebite incidence seasonality at a national scale. Moreover, geographical areas with high rainfall are more prone to have high snakebite risk, but the spatial heterogeneity of the temporal association (i.e., if there are different seasonal patterns of rainfall-incidence association in different geographical areas of a country) is just starting to emerge in the literature. By formulating and fitting compartmental models to data, we generated a flexible framework that relies on temporal resolved datasets and a compartmental mathematical model to understand the effect of climatic covariates (such as rainfall and temperature) driving snakebite dynamics in space and time. We applied this framework to Colombia and found that dry seasons cause a decrease in snakebite incidence: Rainfall only drives snakebite dynamics in regions with marked dry seasons. Thus, rainfall is a limiting resource of the system, and its effect is not spatially homogeneous. On the other hand, the temperature had no significant effect driving snakebite incidence. Our modeling approach can also be used to estimate the effect of climate anomalies on snakebite incidence and has the potential to be used as a tool to monitor snakebite incidence.

Snakebite Management and One Health in Asia Using an Integrated Historical, Social, And Ecological Framework

Snakebite envenomation continues to contribute to high fatality and morbidity rates across Asia. Yet snake bite is one of many outcomes due to human-snake conflicts, which themselves are only one type of human-snake relationship among the diversity of such interactions. We propose that human-snake relationships need to be explored from a perspective integrative of history, ecology, and culture in order to adequately and holistically address snake bite. In order to contextualize this concept within a language already understood in conservation research, we characterize and develop four interconnected themes defining human-snake relationships as a social ecological system. By breaking down the multifaceted nature of human-snake relationships under a social ecological systems framework, we explore its applicability in contributing to a unified strategy, drawing from both social and natural sciences for ending the snakebite crisis.

Access to antivenoms in the developing world: A multidisciplinary analysis

Access to safe, effective, quality-assured antivenom products that are tailored to endemic venomous snake species is a crucial component of recent coordinated efforts to reduce the global burden of snakebite envenoming. Multiple access barriers may affect the journey of antivenoms from manufacturers to the bedsides of patients. Our review describes the antivenom ecosystem at different levels and identifies solutions to overcome these challenges. At the global level, there is insufficient manufacturing output to meet clinical needs, notably for antivenoms intended for use in regions with a scarcity of producers. At national level, variable funding and deficient regulation of certain antivenom markets can lead to the procurement of substandard antivenom. This is particularly true when producers fail to seek registration of their products in the countries where they should be used, or where weak assessment frameworks allow registration without local clinical evaluation. Out-of-pocket expenses by snakebite victims are often the main source of financing antivenoms, which results in the underuse or under-dosing of antivenoms, and a preference for low-cost products regardless of efficacy. In resource-constrained rural areas, where the majority of victims are bitten, supply of antivenom in peripheral health facilities is often unreliable. Misconceptions about treatment of snakebite envenoming are common, further reducing demand for antivenom and exacerbating delays in reaching facilities equipped for antivenom use. Multifaceted interventions are needed to improve antivenom access in resource-limited settings. Particular attention should be paid to the comprehensive list of actions proposed within the WHO Strategy for Prevention and Control of Snakebite Envenoming.

Promoting co-existence between humans and venomous snakes through increasing the herpetological knowledge base

Snakebite incidence at least partly depends on the biology of the snakes involved. However, studies of snake biology have been largely neglected in favour of anthropic factors, with the exception of taxonomy, which has been recognised for some decades to affect the design of antivenoms. Despite this, within-species venom variation and the unpredictability of the correlation with antivenom cross-reactivity has continued to be problematic. Meanwhile, other aspects of snake biology, including behaviour, spatial ecology and activity patterns, distribution, and population demography, which can contribute to snakebite mitigation and prevention, remain underfunded and understudied. Here, we review the literature relevant to these aspects of snakebite and illustrate how demographic, spatial, and behavioural studies can improve our understanding of why snakebites occur and provide evidence for prevention strategies. We identify the large gaps that remain to be filled and urge that, in the future, data and relevant metadata be shared openly via public data repositories so that studies can be properly replicated and data used in future meta-analyses.

Addressing the global snakebite crisis with geo-spatial analyses - Recent advances and future direction

Venomous snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that annually leads to hundreds of thousands of deaths or long-term physical and mental ailments across the developing world. Insufficient data on spatial variation in snakebite risk, incidence, human vulnerability, and accessibility of medical treatment contribute substantially to ineffective on-ground management. There is an urgent need to collect data, fill knowledge gaps and address on-ground management problems. The use of novel, and transdisciplinary approaches that take advantage of recent advances in spatio-temporal models, 'big data', high performance computing, and fine-scale spatial information can add value to snakebite management by strategically improving our understanding and mitigation capacity of snakebite. We review the background and recent advances on the topic of snakebite related geospatial analyses and suggest avenues for priority research that will have practical on-ground applications for snakebite management and mitigation. These include streamlined, targeted data collection on snake distributions, snakebites, envenomings, venom composition, health infrastructure, and antivenom accessibility along with fine-scale models of spatio-temporal variation in snakebite risk and incidence, intraspecific venom variation, and environmental change modifying human exposure. These measures could improve and 'future-proof' antivenom production methods, antivenom distribution and stockpiling systems, and human-wildlife conflict management practices, while simultaneously feeding into research on venom evolution, snake taxonomy, ecology, biogeography, and conservation.

Implications of global environmental change for the burden of snakebite

Snakebite envenoming is a set of intoxication diseases that disproportionately affect people of poor socioeconomic backgrounds in tropical countries. As it is highly dependent on the environment its burden is expected to shift spatially with global anthropogenic environmental (climate, land use) and demographic change. The mechanisms underlying the changes to snakebite epidemiology are related to factors of snakes and humans. The distribution and abundance of snakes are expected to change with global warming via their thermal tolerance, while rainfall may affect the timing of key activities like feeding and reproduction. Human population growth is the primary cause of land-use change, which may impact snakes at smaller spatial scales than climate via habitat and biodiversity loss (e.g. prey availability). Human populations, on the other hand, could experience novel patterns and morbidity of snakebite envenoming, both as a result of snake responses to environmental change and due to the development of agricultural adaptations to climate change, socioeconomic and cultural changes, development and availability of better antivenoms, personal protective equipment, and mechanization of agriculture that mediate risk of encounters with snakes and their outcomes. The likely global effects of environmental and demographic change are thus context-dependent and could encompass both increasing and or snakebite burden (incidence, number of cases or morbidity), exposing new populations to snakes in temperate areas due to “tropicalization”, or by land use change-induced snake biodiversity loss, respectively. Tackling global change requires drastic measures to ensure large-scale ecosystem functionality. However, as ecosystems represent the main source of venomous snakes their conservation should be accompanied by comprehensive public health campaigns. The challenges associated with the joint efforts of biodiversity conservation and public health professionals should be considered in the global sustainability agenda in a wider context that applies to neglected tropical and zoonotic and emerging diseases.

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Distribution and abundance of snakes are expected to be affected by climate change.

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Land-use change may also impact snakes but at smaller spatial scales than climate.

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Human populations could experience novel patterns and morbidity of snakebite.

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Reducing snakebite should be accompanied by actions that protect snake diversity.