Assessment and prediction of spatial patterns of human-elephant conflicts in changing land cover scenarios of a human-dominated landscape in North Bengal

Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human-elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia

Human-wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans and wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing conflict requires an understanding of where it is likely to occur, particularly as climate change shifts wildlife ranges and human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected shifts in cropland density, human population density, and climatic suitability-three key drivers of human-elephant conflict-will shift conflict pressures for endangered Asian and African elephants to inform conflict management in a changing climate. We find that conflict risk (cropland density and/or human population density moving into the 90th percentile based on current-day values) increases in 2050, with a larger increase under the high-emissions "regional rivalry" SSP3 - RCP 7.0 scenario than the low-emissions "sustainability" SSP1 - RCP 2.6 scenario. We also find a net decrease in climatic suitability for both species along their extended range boundaries, with decreasing suitability most often overlapping increasing conflict risk when both suitability and conflict risk are changing. Our findings suggest that as climate changes, the risk of conflict with Asian and African elephants may shift and increase and managers should proactively mitigate that conflict to preserve these charismatic animals.

Geo-temporal patterns to design cost-effective interventions for zoonotic diseases -the case of brucellosis in the country of Georgia

Introduction

Control of zoonosis can benefit from geo-referenced procedures. Focusing on brucellosis, here the ability of two methods to distinguish disease dissemination patterns and promote cost-effective interventions was compared.

Method

Geographical data on bovine, ovine and human brucellosis reported in the country of Georgia between 2014 and 2019 were investigated with (i) the Hot Spot (HS) analysis and (ii) a bio-geographical (BG) alternative.

Results

More than one fourth of all sites reported cases affecting two or more species. While ruminant cases displayed different patterns over time, most human cases described similar geo-temporal features, which were associated with the route used by migrant shepherds. Other human cases showed heterogeneous patterns. The BG approach identified small areas with a case density twice as high as the HS method. The BG method also identified, in 2018, a 2.6-2.99 higher case density in zoonotic (human and non-human) sites than in non-zoonotic sites (which only reported cases affecting a single species) -a finding that, if corroborated, could support cost-effective policy-making.

Discussion

Three dissemination hypotheses were supported by the data: (i) human cases induced by sheep-related contacts; (ii) human cases probably mediated by contaminated milk or meat; and (iii) cattle and sheep that infected one another. This proof-of-concept provided a preliminary validation for a method that may support cost-effective interventions oriented to control zoonoses. To expand these findings, additional studies on zoonosis-related decision-making are recommended.

Disgust in animals and the application of disease avoidance to wildlife management and conservation

Disgust is an adaptive system hypothesized to have evolved to reduce the risk of becoming sick. It is associated with behavioural, cognitive and physiological responses tuned to allow animals to avoid and/or get rid of parasites, pathogens and toxins. Little is known about the mechanisms and outcomes of disease avoidance in wild animals. Furthermore, given the escalation of negative human-wildlife interactions, the translation of such knowledge into the design of evolutionarily relevant conservation and wildlife management strategies is becoming urgent. Contemporary methods in animal ecology and related fields, using direct (sensory cues) or indirect (remote sensing technologies and machine learning) means, provide a flexible toolbox for testing and applying disgust at individual and collective levels. In this review/perspective paper, we provide an empirical framework for testing the adaptive function of disgust and its associated disease avoidance behaviours across species, from the least to the most social, in different habitats. We predict various trade-offs to be at play depending on the social system and ecology of the species. We propose five contexts in which disgust-related avoidance behaviours could be applied, including endangered species rehabilitation, invasive species, crop-raiding, urban pests and animal tourism. We highlight some of the perspectives and current challenges of testing disgust in the wild. In particular, we recommend future studies to consider together disease, predation and competition risks. We discuss the ethics associated with disgust experiments in the above contexts. Finally, we promote the creation of a database gathering disease avoidance evidence in animals and its applications.

Factors Influencing the Feasibility, Effectiveness, and Sustainability of Farmers' Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in The Indian Eastern Himalayan Foothills

The rapidly changing climatic conditions are adversely impacting the Indian agricultural sector. Farmers are frequently seen adopting several adaptation measures, which are neither equally efficient nor mutually exclusive. Based on the primary data collected from 300 farming households of the Indian Eastern Himalayan foothills, the present study attempts to examine the efficiency of local farmers' adaptation by developing indices combining the feasibility, effectiveness, and sustainability of the adaptation measures with the scale of actual adoption. Further, by employing multiple linear regression, the study analyzes the internal (psychological) and external (physical and socio-economic) factors influencing higher scores of these indices. Results show that local farmers are well aware of climate change and are responding through implementing at least one and up to seven adaptation measures. Farmers preferred agroforestry, a shift from cereals to low water-intensive commercials, irrigation, and intensification of winter crops as the most efficient. There was, however, a misalignment between the perceived efficiency of adaptation measures and their scale of adoption. Farmers' perceptions of pest infestation, satisfaction with farming, soil characteristics, farm size, remittances, and access to credit were found to be positively and significantly influencing the adaptation indices, while open-mindedness toward changing farming practices and crop-raiding by elephants were found to be negatively and significantly associated with adaptation indices. Lastly, the study made relevant recommendations for improving farmers' efficiency in adopting appropriate adaptation measures and strengthening the "State Action Plan on Climate Change".

Effectiveness of physical barriers in mitigating human–elephant negative interactions in North-East India

Physical barriers, like solar fences, elephant-proof trenches, stone, or rubble walls, are installed as conflict mitigation interventions in India’s major Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) ranges. However, installations lacking a priori scientific assessment of site specificity for reducing elephant incursion in the human settlements often fail in the intended goals of the resource-intensive management interventions. Since humans are central to conflict issues, research focusing on social aspects is essential for devising solutions. Despite the use of barriers in the Golaghat district in Assam, human–elephant conflict (HEC) cases are increasing, which offers an opportunity to evaluate their efficacy. Optimized hotspot analysis of the historic HEC records from 2010 to 2019 was done to check the spatial extent of the conflict and its dispersion in the district. We also assessed the efficiency of a 4.2-km long solar fence and a 2-km long elephant-proof trench through generalized linear modeling. We evaluated the encounter rates of elephant signs and other site covariates at the barrier and non-barrier sites. Multinomial logistic regression was applied to assess the perception of local people on the barriers and overall HEC in their areas based on their willingness to pay (WTP) for maintenance of the barriers. The highest cases occurred between 2016 and 2017, making up 25% of the total conflict cases. It was noticed that the extent of these hotspots was concentrated, and there was no dispersion of the conflict to other areas. Furthermore, a significant difference in the encounter rates of elephant signs between barriers and no barrier sites was observed. Solar fenced areas showed relatively lower encounter rates than areas with the trench, suggesting better efficiency of solar fencing than trench in the landscape. In addition, only five out of seven explanatory variables, viz., the persistence of HEC cases, amount of ex-gratia compensation, time taken in getting compensation, change in elephant behavior (incursion), and crop-raiding frequency significantly explained people’s perception of the barrier and non-barrier sites. According to local people, physical barriers are essential in managing HEC; hence, installing and maintaining solar fences in the high conflict hotspots is crucial for this landscape.

Drivers of human-megaherbivore interactions in the Eastern and Western Ghats of southern India

The global effort to protect megaherbivore populations is largely dependent on how human-wildlife conflict is identified, prioritized, and remedied. We examined the socio-ecological and landscape-scale factors determining spatial patterns of human-megaherbivore (Asian elephant Elephas maximus and gaur Bos gaurus) interactions across sixteen Forest Divisions in Tamil Nadu, India. Using a systematic grid-based design, we conducted questionnaire-based surveys of 1460 households at the human-wildlife interface adjacent to Protected Areas, Reserve Forest and Fringe Areas. We specifically collected information on elephant and gaur conflict incidents (e.g., human death/injuries, property damage, and crop-raiding), cropland type, extent of crop area and area lost to crop-raiding, from each household. We found that human-elephant conflict increased with percentage of crop cover, diversity of major and minor crops grown, proximity to water source, flat terrain, and lower rates of precipitation. Human-gaur conflict was greatest with a high diversity of major crops, proximity to water source, moderate precipitation, and more undulating terrain. We identified ca. 7900 km² hotspot area of contiguous high-intensity elephant conflict. For gaur, we identified high-frequency conflict hotspot areas covering ca. 625 km², which were patchily distributed, highly localised, and attributed mostly to the recent changing land-use patterns. Our findings will help policymakers and park managers in developing landscape-scale human-wildlife conflict mitigation plans in the identified conflict hotspots.

Human-elephant conflict risk assessment under coupled climatic and anthropogenic changes in Thailand

As natural resources decrease, competition between humans and large endangered wildlife increases, hindering the sustainability of animal conservation and human development. Despite the multi-dimensional nature of such interactions, proactive assessments that consider both the biosphere and anthroposphere remain limited. In this study, we proposed a human elephant conflict risk assessment framework and analyzed the spatial distribution of risk at the baseline (2000-2019) and in the near future (2025-2044) for Thailand, so that it may address the multifaceted characteristics and impending effects of climate change. Future scenarios were based on the combination of RCP45/SSP2 or RCP85/SSP5 and spatial policy, with or without elephant buffer zones. The composite risk index, comprised of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, was constructed using the geometric mean, and validation was performed with the area under the curve (AUC). Our results projected a shift with increasing future risk toward higher latitudes and altitudes. Increasing future risk (average +1.7% to +7.4%) in the four forest complexes (FCs) in northwestern regions was a result of higher hazard and vulnerability from more favorable habitat conditions and increasing drought probability, respectively. Reduction in future risk (average -3.1% to -57.9%) in other FCs in lower regions was mainly due to decreasing hazard because of decreasing habitat suitability. Our results also highlight geographically explicit strategies to support long-term planning of conservation resources. Areas with increasing future risk are currently facing low conflict; hence it is recommended that future strategies should enhance adaptive capacity and coexistence awareness. Conversely, areas with lowering future risk from a decrease in habitat quality are recommended to identify buffer strategies around protected areas to support existing large elephant populations.

Pandora’s Box: A spatiotemporal assessment of elephant-train casualties in Assam, India

Railways are an indispensable component of sustainable transportation systems, but also exact a toll on wildlife. Wild Asian elephants are often killed by trains in Assam, India, where we assess temporal variations in the occurrences of elephant-train collisions (ETCs) and casualties during 1990–2018. This study also assesses spatially varying relationships between elephant-train collision (ETC) rates and elephant and train densities in the adjoining 10 km² grid cells of 11 prioritized railroad segments using ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. The temporal analysis indicated that ETCs spiked at certain hours and months. The adult and calf elephant casualties on the railroads were found to be two to fivefold high during the post monsoon season compared to other seasons. During the operation period of meter gauge railroads (1990–1997), the proportions of ETCs and casualties were only 15.6% and 8.7% respectively. However, these increased substantially to 84.4% and 91.3% respectively during the operation of broad gauge railroads (1998–2018). The OLS model indicated that both elephant and train densities explained 37% of the variance of ETC rate, while GWR model showed 83% of the variance of ETC rate. The local coefficient values of GWR indicated that both the predictor variables interplayed significantly and positively to determine ETC rates in the Mariani-Nakachari and Khatkhati-Dimapur railroad segments. However, the relationship between ETC rate and elephant density is significantly negative in the Habaipur-Diphu railroad, implying that the elephant population along this railroad stretch is significantly affected by railways through large scale ETCs. Hence, there is an urgent need to address long-term mitigation strategies so that elephants can be conserved by providing safe passages and survival resources along railway lines.

Trunk picking from a truncating menu: Dry season forage selection by Asian elephant in a multi-use landscape

Elephants show a strong selection towards areas with high foraging opportunities at the landscape level making top-down decisions by first selecting patch types within landscapes and finally species within them. Understanding forage selection in a multi-use landscape is critical for prioritising patches for habitat management, ensuring availability of selected forage, helping in minimizing pressure on food crops and subsequent negative interactions with people. We assessed dry season forage selection in a multi-use landscape of West Bengal state, India. Relative forage use and relative plant species availability ratio were calculated to assess forage selection in a multi-use landscape comprising of the forest, tea estates, agricultural land, and human settlement. Forage use was assessed using the opportunistic feeding trail observation method (150.01 km). Stratified random sampling was used to assess plant species availability using the quadrat method (123 plots of 0.1 ha each). Among 286 plant species recorded, 132 plant species were consumed by elephants. A majority (80.21%) of plant species were consumed more than the proportional availability thereby showing selective foraging during the dry season in the study area. From forest to semi-open forest and open forest, canopy layer tree density and the total number of species decreased whereas invasive species density increased. This indicates the high impact on the forage species availability for elephants and the requirement of appropriate habitat management strategies. The presence of 32.14% of the selected forage species in human-use landscape alone demands the development of conservation interventions. This is the first study to assess forage selection by elephants in a multi-use landscape and used to prioritise conservation and management strategies at a landscape level.

Can Humans and Elephants Coexist? A Review of the Conflict on Sumatra Island, Indonesia

The high rate of deforestation and fragmentation of elephant habitat on Sumatra Island has triggered human-elephant conflict (HEC) in Sumatra Island, Indonesia. This conflict brings negative impacts on humans and elephants. Despite numerous efforts having been made to solve this problem, the HEC continues to occur in the remaining elephant enclave every year. The harmonious coexistence between humans and elephants could be improved through HEC mitigation programs. The aim of this paper was to review information on HEC in Sumatra Island, investigate the causes and implications of HEC, review existing HEC mitigation methods, and formulate strategies to improve the harmonious coexistence between humans and elephants. The best strategies to create successful human and elephant coexistence are strengthening the institutions and policies, restoring the habitat, developing wildlife corridors, establishing Essential Ecosystem Areas (EEA), community empowerment through ecotourism, providing legal access to forests through Social Forestry (SF), and providing compensation schemes for conflict victims.

Analysis of Landscape Connectivity among the Habitats of Asian Elephants in Keonjhar Forest Division, India

Land development has impacted natural landforms extensively, causing a decline in resources and negative consequences to elephant populations, habitats, and gene flow. Often, elephants seek to fulfill basic needs by wandering into nearby human communities, which leads to human–elephant conflict (HEC), a serious threat to conserving this endangered species. Understanding elephant space use and connectivity among their habitats can offset barriers to ecological flow among fragmented populations. We focused on the Keonjhar Forest Division in Eastern India, where HEC has resulted in the deaths of ~300 people and several hundred elephants, and damaged ~4100 houses and ~12,700 acres of cropland between 2001 and 2018. Our objectives were to (1) analyze elephant space use based on their occupancy; (2) map connectivity by considering the land structure and HEC occurrences; (3) assess the quality of mapped connectivity and identify potential bottlenecks. We found that (1) the study area has the potential to sustain a significant elephant population by providing safe connectivity; (2) variables like forests, precipitation, rural built-up areas, cropland, and transportation networks were responsible for predicting elephant presence (0.407, SE = 0.098); (3) five habitat cores, interconnected by seven corridors were identified, of which three habitat cores were vital for maintaining connectivity; (4) landscape features, such as cropland, rural built-up, mining, and transportation networks created bottlenecks that could funnel elephant movement. Our findings also indicate that overlooking HEC in connectivity assessments could lead to overestimation of functionality. The study outcomes can be utilized as a preliminary tool for decision making and early planning during development projects.

Pattern of injuries due to wild animal attack among patients presenting to the emergency department: A retrospective observational study

PURPOSE

The human-wildlife conflicts (HWCs) causing nuisances and injuries are becoming a growing public health concern over recent years worldwide. We aimed to study the demographic profile, mode of injury, pattern of injury, and outcome of wild animal attack victims presented to the emergency department.

METHODS

This retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted in the emergency department of a tertiary-care hospital in Eastern India. Data were retrieved from the medical records from May 2017 to May 2021. Patients of all ages and genders attacked by wild animals and secondary injuries were included in this study. Patients with incomplete data, injuries due to the attack of stray and domestic animals and trauma due to other causes were excluded. Demographic profile, mode of injury, the pattern of injury, injury severity score (ISS), radiological pattern, and outcome were recorded. Statistical analysis with R (version 3.6.1.) was conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 411 wild animal attack victims were studied, of which 374 (90.9%) were snakebite injuries and 37 (9.1%) were wild mammalian (WM) attack injuries. The mean age of WM attack victims was 46 years, and the male-to-female ratio was 4:1. Elephant attack injury (40.5%) was the most common WM attack injury reported. Most WM attacks (43.2%) occurred between 4:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. The median ISS was 18.5 (13-28), where 54.2% of patients had polytrauma (ISS>15). Elephant attack was associated with a higher ISS, but the difference was not significant compared to other animal types (p = 0.2). Blunt trauma was common pattern of injury in the elephant attack injury cases. Lacerations and soft tissue injuries were common patterns in other animal attacks. Among snakebites, neurotoxic was the most common type (55.4%), and lower extremity was the most common site involved.

CONCLUSION

The young male population is the major victim of HWCs; and elephant is the most common animal involved. There is a need to design scientifically sound preventive strategies for HWCs and to strengthen the preparedness in health establishments to manage victims effectively.

Tracking forest loss and fragmentation between 1930 and 2020 in Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) range in Nepal

Forest cover is the primary determinant of elephant distribution, thus, understanding forest loss and fragmentation is crucial for elephant conservation. We assessed deforestation and patterns of forest fragmentation between 1930 and 2020 in Chure Terai Madhesh Lanscape (CTML) which covers the entire elephant range in Nepal. Forest cover maps and fragmentation matrices were generated using multi-source data (Topographic maps and Landsat satellite images of 1930, 1975, 2000, and 2020) and spatiotemporal change was quantified. At present, 19,069 km2 forest cover in CTML is available as the elephant habitat in Nepal. Overall, 21.5% of elephant habitat was lost between 1930 and 2020, with a larger (12.3%) forest cover loss between 1930 and 1975. Area of the large forests (Core 3) has decreased by 43.08% whereas smaller patches (Core 2, Core 1, edge and patch forests) has increased multifold between 1930 and 2020. The continued habitat loss and fragmentation probably fragmented elephant populations during the last century and made them insular with long-term ramifications for elephant conservation and human-elephant conflict. Given the substantial loss in forest cover and high levels of fragmentation, improving the resilience of elephant populations in Nepal would urgently require habitat and corridor restoration to enable the movement of elephants.

Patterns and determinants of elephant attacks on humans in Nepal

Attacks on humans by Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) is an extreme form of human-elephant conflict. It is a serious issue in southern lowland Nepal where elephant-related human fatalities are higher than other wildlife. Detailed understanding of elephant attacks on humans in Nepal is still lacking, hindering to devising appropriate strategies for human-elephant conflict mitigation. This study documented spatiotemporal pattern of elephant attacks on humans, factors associated with the attacks, and human/elephant behavior contributing to deaths of victims when attacked. We compiled all the documented incidences of elephant attacks on humans in Nepal for last 20 years across Terai and Chure region of Nepal. We also visited and interviewed 412 victim families (274 fatalities and 138 injuries) on elephant attacks. Majority of the victims were males (87.86%) and had low level of education. One fourth of the elephant attacks occurred while chasing the elephants. Solitary bulls or group of subadult males were involved in most of the attack. We found higher number of attacks outside the protected area. People who were drunk and chasing elephants using firecrackers were more vulnerable to the fatalities. In contrast, chasing elephants using fire was negatively associated with the fatalities. Elephant attacks were concentrated in proximity of forests primarily affecting the socioeconomically marginalized communities. Integrated settlement, safe housing for marginalized community, and community grain house in the settlement should be promoted to reduce the confrontation between elephants and humans in entire landscape for their long-term survival.

Descriptive Spatial Analysis of Human-Elephant Conflict (HEC) Distribution and Mapping HEC Hotspots in Keonjhar Forest Division, India

Escalation of human-elephant conflict (HEC) in India threatens its Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) population and victimizes local communities. India supports 60% of the total Asian elephant population in the world. Understanding HEC spatial patterns will ensure targeted mitigation efforts and efficient resource allocation to high-risk regions. This study deals with the spatial aspects of HEC in Keonjhar forest division, where 345 people were killed and 5,145 hectares of croplands were destroyed by elephant attacks during 2001–2018. We classified the data into three temporal phases (HEC1: 2001–2006, HEC2: 2007–2012, and HEC3: 2013–2018), in order to (1) derive spatial patterns of HEC; (2) identify the hotspots of HEC and its different types along with the number of people living in the high-risk zones; and (3) assess the temporal change in the spatial risk of HEC. Significantly dense clusters of HEC were identified in Keonjhar and Ghatgaon forest ranges throughout the 18 years, whereas Champua forest range became a prominent hotspot since HEC2. The number of people under HEC risk escalated from 14,724 during HEC1 and 34,288 in HEC2, to 65,444 people during HEC3. Crop damage was the most frequent form of HEC in the study area followed by house damage and loss of human lives. Risk mapping of HEC types and high priority regions that are vulnerable to HEC, provides a contextual background for researchers, policy makers and managers.

Land cover change and its impact on human–elephant conflict: a case from Fashiakhali forest reserve in Bangladesh

Changes in land cover are a major driving force behind habitat change, which significantly impacts the distribution of wildlife and ecological systems. However, there is a substantial lack of information on the effects of land cover changes on wildlife habitat and local conservation. Therefore, it is essential to understand how land cover changes may threaten future land cover trends and wildlife habitat loss, especially in protected areas. Landsat satellite imagery uses a geographic information system and remote sensing techniques to determine the spatiotemporal pattern of land cover change and its impact on the human–elephant conflict in the Fashiakhali Wildlife Sanctuary. We found that within the sanctuary (1994–2005), settlements, agricultural land, and bare land increased by 69.8 ha (2.3%), 991.6 ha (32.3%), and 39.5 ha (1.3%), and forest areas and water areas decreased by 1094.1 ha (35.7%) and 6.9 ha (0.2%), respectively. On the other hand (2005–2015), settlements, agricultural land, and water areas increased by 11.7 ha (0.4%), 264.7 ha (8.6%), and 36.2 ha (1.2%), and forest areas and bare land decreased by 308.9 ha (10.1%) and 3.7 ha (0.1%), respectively. Our findings have shown that increased agriculture and settlements have become a severe threat to the ecological sustainability of elephant habitat, resulting in habitat fragmentation and human encroachment of elephant habitats, as well as extreme pressure and competition on resources.

Movement behavior of a solitary large carnivore within a hotspot of human-wildlife conflicts in India

With a rise in human induced changes to natural habitats, large predators are forced to share space and resources with people to coexist within multiple-use landscapes. Within such shared landscapes, co-occurrence of humans and predators often leads to human-carnivore conflicts and pose a substantial challenge for biodiversity conservation. To better elucidate large carnivore space use within a hotspot of human-wildlife conflicts, we used GPS data for leopards (N = 6) to identify behavioral states and document spatial patterns of resource selection in response to season and human activity periods within a fragmented landscape of North Bengal, eastern India. We identified two major behavioral states (i.e. resting and travelling). From the resource selection models, we found leopards selected habitats with dense to moderate vegetation cover and proximity to water while resting and travelling within the landscape. During the dry season, when risk of human-leopard conflicts is highest, leopards selected tea plantations, forest patches but avoided protected areas. These results suggest a potential for increase in human-carnivore conflicts and a strategy to conserve large predators within multiple-use landscapes of South Asia.

Spatiotemporal Variation of Siberian Crane Habitats and the Response to Water Level in Poyang Lake Wetland, China

The Poyang Lake wetland in China is the largest wintering destination for Siberian cranes worldwide. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of crane habitats is of great importance for ecological environment governance and biodiversity protection. The shallow water, grassland, and soft mudflat regions of the Poyang Lake wetland are ideal habitats for wintering Siberian cranes. Based on Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Operational Land Imager (OLI) remote sensing images, habitat areas were extracted and associated with various water levels taken on multiple dates. Landscape metrics were applied to describe the spatial structural characteristics of the crane habitats, and spatial statistics are used to explore the cold and hot spots of their distribution. Moreover, three indicators including sustainability, stability, and variety were applied to evaluate the vulnerability of the crane habitats under different hydrological conditions. Our findings indicate: (a) The main crane habitats exhibit a gradual decreasing degree of fragmentation in time, an obvious uncertainty of shape complexity and a relatively stable connectivity. (b) The crane habitats have a consistent spatial pattern of highly aggregated distributions associated with various water levels. (c) The hot spots of the habitats formed multiple “sheet” belts centered on the “Lake Enclosed in Autumn” regions, while the cold spots indicate a spatial pattern of axial distributions. (d) The majority of the hot spots of the habitats were distributed in sub-lakes found in the southeast part of the Poyang Lake watershed and the Nanjishan and Wucheng nature reserves, while the cold spots were mainly distributed in the main channels of the basins of Poyang Lake. (e) The sustainable habitats were mainly distributed in the “Lake Enclosed in Autumn” regions and intensively aggregated in two national nature reserves. (f) Under conditions of extremely low to average water levels (5.3–11.46 m), an increase of water level causes a decrease of the stability and variety of the crane habitats and weakens the aggregation structure.

Elephants in the neighborhood: patterns of crop-raiding by Asian elephants within a fragmented landscape of Eastern India

Loss of forest cover, rise in human populations and fragmentation of habitats leads to decline in biodiversity and extinction of large mammals globally. Elephants, being the largest of terrestrial mammals, symbolize global conservation programs and co-occur with humans within multiple-use landscapes of Asia and Africa. Within such shared landscapes, poaching, habitat loss and extent of human-elephant conflicts (HEC) affect survival and conservation of elephants. HEC are severe in South Asia with increasing attacks on humans, crop depredation and property damage. Such incidents reduce societal tolerance towards elephants and increase the risk of retaliation by local communities. We analyzed a 2-year dataset on crop depredation by Asian elephants (N = 380) events in North Bengal (eastern India). We also explored the effect of landscape, anthropogenic factors (area of forest, agriculture, distance to protected area, area of human settlements, riverine patches and human density) on the spatial occurrence of such incidents.Crop depredation showed a distinct nocturnal pattern (22.00-06:00) and majority of the incidents were recorded in the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Results of our spatial analysis suggest that crop depredation increased with an increase in the area of forest patches, agriculture, presence of riverine patches and human density. Probability of crop depredation further increased with decreasing distance from protected areas. Villages within 1.5 km of a forest patch were most affected. Crop raiding incidents suggest a deviation from the "high-risk high-gain male biased" foraging behavior and involved proportionately more mixed groups (57%) than lone bulls (43%). Demographic data suggest that mixed groups comprised an average of 23 individuals with adult and sub adult females, bulls and calves. Crop depredation and fatal elephant attacks on humans were spatially clustered with eastern, central and western parts of North Bengal identified as hotspots of HEC. Our results will help to prioritize mitigation measures such as prohibition of alcohol production within villages, improving condition of riverine patches, changing crop composition, fencing agriculture fields, implement early warning systems around protected areas and training local people on how to prevent conflicts.