SARS-CoV-2 viral load as a predictor for disease severity in outpatients and hospitalised patients with COVID-19: A prospective cohort study

Plasma SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen levels are associated with lung infection and tissue-damage biomarkers

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) antigen has been confirmed in the peripheral blood of patients with new coronavirus infection,yet its diagnostic and prognostic significance remains unclear. This study aimed to characterize the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 N antigenemia in patients with novel coronavirus positivity, and to assess its potential association with clinical severity and plasma biomarker levels.

METHODS

We analyzed the level of SARS-CoV-2 N antigen, spike receptor-binding domain (S-RBD) IgG, neutralizing antibodies (NAb) and tissue-damage biomarkers was assessed in 180 plasma samples from 51 SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals. Plasma antigen levels were compared with concurrent respiratory nucleic acid amplification test results.

RESULTS

Patients with Ct values below 30 showed significantly different serum antigen levels compared to those with Ct values above 30 (p < 0.01). However, no significant positive correlation was found between respiratory viral load and serum antigen levels. Further analysis revealed that patients with pneumonia had markedly higher serum antigen levels than those without (p < 0.0001). Additionally, serum amyloid A (SAA) and ferritin (Fe) levels were significantly elevated in the antigenemia-positive group compared to the negative group, while procalcitonin (PCT) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels showed no significant differences. Notably, the positivity rate of N antigen in peripheral blood peaked at 47.1% (95% CI: 37.8%-56.7%) during the first week of infection and then gradually decreased over time. Moreover, patients with severe COVID-19 exhibited significantly higher serum antigen levels than those with mild or moderate disease (p < 0.0001). Serum levels of SARS-CoV-2 S-RBD IgG and neutralizing antibodies (NAb) were also significantly higher in antigenemia-negative patients than in antigenemia-positive patients (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the multifaceted role of antigenemia in SARS-CoV-2 and suggest its potential as a biomarker for disease monitoring and risk stratification.

Differential immunoregulation by human surfactant protein A variants determines severity of SARS-CoV-2-induced lung disease

Introduction

COVID-19 remains a significant threat to public health globally. Infection in some susceptible individuals causes life-threatening acute lung injury (ALI/ARDS) and/or death. Human surfactant protein A (SP-A) is a C-type lectin expressed in the lung and other mucosal tissues, and it plays a critical role in host defense against various pathogens. The human SP-A genes (SFTPA1 and SFTPA2) are highly polymorphic and comprise several common genetic variants, i.e., SP-A1 (variants 6A2, 6A4) and SP-A2 (variants 1A0, 1A3). Here, we elucidated the differential antiviral and immunoregulatory roles of SP-A variants in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection in vivo.

Methods

Six genetically-modified mouse lines, expressing both hACE2 (SARS-CoV-2 receptor) and individual SP-A variants: (hACE2/6A2 (6A2), hACE2/6A4 (6A4), hACE2/1A0 (1A0), and hACE2/1A3 (1A3), one SP-A knockout (hACE2/SP-A KO (KO) and one hACE2/mouse SP-A (K18) mice, were challenged intranasally with 103 PFU SARS-CoV-2 or MEM medium (Sham).

Results

Infected KO and 1A0 mice had more weight loss and mortality compared to other mouse lines. Relative to other infected mouse lines, a more severe ALI was observed in KO, 1A0, and 6A2 mice. Reduced viral titers were generally observed in the lungs of infected SP-A mice relative to KO mice. Transcriptomic analysis revealed an upregulation in genes that play central roles in immune responses such as MyD88, Stat3, IL-18, and Jak2 in the lungs of KO and 1A0 mice. However, Mapk1 was significantly downregulated in 6A2 versus 1A0 mice. Analysis of biological pathways identified those involved in lung host defense and innate immunity, including pathogen-induced cytokine, NOD1/2, and Trem1 signaling pathways. Consistent with the transcriptomic data, levels of cytokines and chemokines such as G-CSF, IL-6, and IL-1β were comparatively higher in the lungs and sera of KO and 1A0 mice with the highest mortality rate. Furthermore, we observed the complexity of COVID-19, such as the difference between lung and systemic immune response to viral infection and of viral load and mortality among SP-A variants in this model.

Conclusion

These findings demonstrate that human SP-A variants differentially modulate SARS-CoV-2-induced lung injury and disease severity by differentially inhibiting viral infectivity and regulating immune-related gene expressions.

Differential Immunoregulation by Human Surfactant Protein A Variants Determines Severity of SARS-CoV-2-induced Lung Disease

COVID-19 remains a significant threat to public health globally. Infection in some susceptible individuals causes life-threatening acute lung injury (ALI/ARDS) and/or death. Human surfactant protein A (SP-A) is a C-type lectin expressed in the lung and other mucosal tissues, and it plays a critical role in host defense against various pathogens. The human SP-A genes ( SFTPA1 and SFTPA2 ) are highly polymorphic and comprise several common genetic variants, i.e., SP-A1 (variants 6A 2 , 6A 4 ) and SP-A2 (variants 1A 0 , 1A 3 ). Here, we elucidated the differential antiviral and immunoregulatory roles of SP-A variants in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection in vivo . Six genetically-modified mouse lines, expressing both hACE2 (SARS-CoV-2 receptor) and individual SP-A variants: (hACE2/6A 2 (6A 2 ), hACE2/6A 4 (6A 4 ), hACE2/1A 0 (1A 0 ), and hACE2/1A 3 (1A 3 ), one SP-A knockout (hACE2/SP-A KO (KO) and one hACE2/mouse SP-A (K18) mice, were challenged intranasally with 10 3 PFU SARS-CoV-2 or saline (Sham). Infected KO and 1A 0 mice had more weight loss and mortality compared to other mouse lines. Relative to other infected mouse lines, a more severe ALI was observed in KO, 1A 0 , and 6A 2 mice. Reduced viral titers were generally observed in the lungs of infected SP-A mice relative to KO mice. Transcriptomic analysis revealed an upregulation in genes that play central roles in immune responses such as MyD88 , Stat3 , IL-18 , and Jak2 in the lungs of KO and 1A 0 mice. However, Mapk1 was significantly downregulated in 6A 2 versus 1A 0 mice. Analysis of biological pathways identified those involved in lung host defense and innate immunity, including pathogen-induced cytokine, NOD1/2, and Trem1 signaling pathways. Consistent with the transcriptomic data, levels of cytokines and chemokines such as G-CSF, IL-6 and IL-1β were comparatively higher in the lungs and sera of KO and 1A 0 mice with the highest mortality rate. These findings demonstrate that human SP-A variants differentially modulate SARS-CoV-2-induced lung injury and disease severity by differentially inhibiting viral infectivity and regulating immune-related gene expressions.

SARS-CoV-2 viremia but not respiratory viral load is associated with respiratory complications in patients with severe COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Severe COVID-19 carries a high morbidity and mortality. Previous studies have shown an association between COVID-19 severity and SARS-CoV-2 viral load (VL). We sought to measure VL in multiple compartments (urine, plasma, lower respiratory tract) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with severe COVID-19 pneumonia and correlate with clinical outcomes.

METHODS

Plasma, urine, and endotracheal aspirate (ETA) samples were obtained on days 1, 3, 7, 14, and 21 from subjects admitted to the ICU with severe COVID-19. VL was measured via reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Clinical data was collected from the electronic health record. Grouped comparisons were performed using Student's t-test or 1-way ANOVA. Linear regression was used to correlate VL from different compartments collected at the same time. Logistic regression was performed to model ventilator-freedom at 28 days as a function of peak plasma VL.

RESULTS

We enrolled 57 subjects with severe COVID-19 and measured VL in plasma (n = 57), urine (n = 25), and ETA (n = 34). Ventilator-associated pneumonia developed in 63% of subjects. 49% of subjects were viremic on study day 1. VL in plasma and ETA both significantly decreased by day 14 (P < 0.05), and the two were weakly correlated on study day 1 (P = 0.0037, r2 = 0.2343) and on all study days (P < 0.001, r2 = 0.2211). VL were not detected in urine. While no associations were observed with peak ETA VL, subjects with higher peak plasma VL experienced a greater number of respiratory complications, including ventilator-associated pneumonia and fewer ventilator-free and hospital-free days. There was no association between VL in either plasma or ETA and mortality. In viremic patients, plasma VL was significantly lower in subjects that were ICU-free and ventilator-free (P < 0.05), with trends noted for hospital-freedom, ventilator-associated pneumonia, and survival to discharge (P < 0.1). By logistic regression, plasma VL was inversely associated with ventilator-freedom at 28 days (odds ratio 0.14, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.50).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated SARS-CoV-2 VL in the plasma but not in the lower respiratory tract is a novel biomarker in severe COVID-19 for respiratory complications.

Differentiating patients admitted primarily due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from those admitted with incidentally detected severe acute respiratory syndrome corona-virus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) at hospital admission: A cohort analysis of German hospital records

OBJECTIVE

The number of hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) does not differentiate between patients admitted due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (ie, primary cases) and incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection (ie, incidental cases). We developed an adaptable method to distinguish primary cases from incidental cases upon hospital admission.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Data were obtained from 3 German tertiary-care hospitals.

PATIENTS

The study included patients of all ages who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by a standard quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay upon admission between January and June 2022.

METHODS

We present 2 distinct models: (1) a point-of-care model that can be used shortly after admission based on a limited range of parameters and (2) a more extended point-of-care model based on parameters that are available within the first 24-48 hours after admission. We used regression and tree-based classification models with internal and external validation.

RESULTS

In total, 1,150 patients were included (mean age, 49.5±28.5 years; 46% female; 40% primary cases). Both point-of-care models showed good discrimination with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.80 and 0.87, respectively. As main predictors, we used admission diagnosis codes (ICD-10-GM), ward of admission, and for the extended model, we included viral load, need for oxygen, leucocyte count, and C-reactive protein.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose 2 predictive algorithms based on routine clinical data that differentiate primary COVID-19 from incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection. These algorithms can provide a precise surveillance tool that can contribute to pandemic preparedness. They can easily be modified to be used in future pandemic, epidemic, and endemic situations all over the world.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in the Nasopharynx at Time of First Infection Among Unvaccinated Individuals: A Secondary Cross-Protocol Analysis of 4 Randomized Trials

Importance

SARS-CoV-2 viral load (VL) in the nasopharynx is difficult to quantify and standardize across settings, but it may inform transmission potential and disease severity.

Objective

To characterize VL at COVID-19 diagnosis among previously uninfected and unvaccinated individuals by evaluating the association of demographic and clinical characteristics, viral variant, and trial with VL, as well as the ability of VL to predict severe disease.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This secondary cross-protocol analysis used individual-level data from placebo recipients from 4 harmonized, phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials sponsored by Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax. Participants were SARS-CoV-2 negative at baseline and acquired COVID-19 during the blinded phase of the trials. The setting included the US, Brazil, South Africa, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Chile, and Mexico; start dates were July 27, 2020, to December 27, 2020; data cutoff dates were March 26, 2021, to July 30, 2021. Statistical analysis was performed from November 2022 to June 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Linear regression was used to assess the association of demographic and clinical characteristics, viral variant, and trial with polymerase chain reaction-measured log10 VL in nasal and/or nasopharyngeal swabs taken at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis.

Results

Among 1667 participants studied (886 [53.1%] male; 995 [59.7%] enrolled in the US; mean [SD] age, 46.7 [14.7] years; 204 [12.2%] aged 65 years or older; 196 [11.8%] American Indian or Alaska Native, 150 [9%] Black or African American, 1112 [66.7%] White; 762 [45.7%] Hispanic or Latino), median (IQR) log10 VL at diagnosis was 6.18 (4.66-7.12) log10 copies/mL. Participant characteristics and viral variant explained only 5.9% of the variability in VL. The independent factor with the highest observed differences was trial: Janssen participants had 0.54 log10 copies/mL lower mean VL vs Moderna participants (95% CI, 0.20 to 0.87 log10 copies/mL lower). In the Janssen study, which captured the largest number of COVID-19 events and variants and used the most intensive post-COVID surveillance, neither VL at diagnosis nor averaged over days 1 to 28 post diagnosis was associated with COVID-19 severity.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study of placebo recipients from 4 randomized phase 3 trials, high variability was observed in SARS-CoV-2 VL at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis, and only a fraction was explained by individual participant characteristics or viral variant. These results suggest challenges for future studies of interventions seeking to influence VL and elevates the importance of standardized methods for specimen collection and viral load quantitation.

Clinical course and management of COVID-19 in the era of widespread population immunity

The clinical implications of COVID-19 have changed since SARS-CoV-2 first emerged in humans. The current high levels of population immunity, due to prior infection and/or vaccination, have been associated with a vastly decreased overall risk of severe disease. Some people, particularly those with immunocompromising conditions, remain at risk for severe outcomes. Through the course of the pandemic, variants with somewhat different symptom profiles from the original SARS-CoV-2 virus have emerged. The management of COVID-19 has also changed since 2020, with the increasing availability of evidence-based treatments in two main classes: antivirals and immunomodulators. Selecting the appropriate treatment(s) for patients with COVID-19 requires a deep understanding of the evidence and an awareness of the limitations of applying data that have been largely based on immune-naive populations to patients today who most likely have vaccine-derived and/or infection-derived immunity. In this Review, we provide a summary of the clinical manifestations and approaches to caring for adult patients with COVID-19 in the era of vaccine availability and the dominance of the Omicron subvariants, with a focus on the management of COVID-19 in different patient groups, including immunocompromised, pregnant, vaccinated and unvaccinated patients.

A stronger antibody response in increased disease severity of SARS-CoV-2

BACKGROUND

An assessment of the factors that interfere with serum levels and the persistence of anti-SARs-CoV-2 IgG antibodies is essential in order to estimate the risk of reinfection and to plan vaccination. We analyzed the impact of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the clinical and biological factors regarding the persistence of SARs-CoV-2 anti-spike protein (IgG-S) antibodies at 12 months.

METHODS

This was an observational, longitudinal study with individuals who had recovered from COVID-19 between August 2020 and June 2021. Peripheral blood samples were collected from volunteers who were hospitalized (SERIOUS COVID-19) and those who required no hospitalization (COVID-19 LIGHT). Samples were grouped according to days after symptom onset: up to 90, between 91 and 180, ≥ 180 days after symptom onset. A semiquantitative test for IgG anti-spike protein S1(IgG-S1) was used.

RESULTS

We analyzed 238 individuals who had recovered from COVID-19, of whom 87 had been hospitalized and 151 had not. They provided 148 and 220 samples, respectively. Among those hospitalized, males (65.5%), volunteers aged over 60 years (41.1%), comorbidities such as arterial hypertension (67.8%) and diabetes mellitus (37.9%) were most frequent. We observed higher median serum IgG-S1 titers among those who had recovered from COVID-19 and had been hospitalized, at all collection time intervals (p < 0.001). We observed a weak correlation of increasing age with humoral IgG-S1 response (Spearman correlation = 0.298). There was a greater probability of IgG-S1 antibody persistence over time among samples from hospitalized individuals compared to samples from non-hospitalized participants (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

This study has revealed higher titers and a higher probability of the persistence of IgG-S1 in severe cases after SARs-CoV-2 primary infection in unvaccinated recovered patients. Thus, in this study, the severe clinical presentation of COVID-19 was the main factor influencing serum levels and the persistence of IgG-S1 antibodies in COVID-19.

Persistent SARS-COV-2 infection in vaccinated individual with three doses of COVID-19 vaccine

We describe a case of a 24-year-old Brazilian woman previously vaccinated with CoronaVac and a booster dose of Pfizer-BioNTech, with mild-to-moderate COVID-19, with persistent viral shedding. We evaluated viral load, antibody dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 and performed genomic analysis to identify the viral variant. The female remained positive for 40 days following symptom onset (cycle quantification mean: 32.54 ± 2.29). The humoral response was characterized by absence of IgM for the viral spike protein, increased IgG for the viral spike (1800.60 to 19558.60 AU/mL) and for the nucleocapsid (from 0.03 to 8.9 index value) proteins, and high titers of neutralizing antibodies (>488.00 IU/mL). The variant identified was the sublineage BA. 5.1. of Omicron (B.1.1.529). Our results suggest that even though the female produced an antibody response against SARS-CoV-2, the persistent infection can be explained by antibody decline and/or the immune evasion by the Omicron variant, illustrating the need to revaccinate or update vaccines.

High titers of neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies six months after symptom onset are associated with increased severity in COVID-19 hospitalized patients

BACKGROUND

Viral shedding and neutralizing antibody (NAb) dynamics among patients hospitalized with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and immune correlates of protection have been key questions throughout the pandemic. We investigated the duration of reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positivity, infectious viral shedding and NAb titers as well as the association between NAb titers and disease severity in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Denmark 2020-2021.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Prospective single-center observational cohort study of 47 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Oropharyngeal swabs were collected at eight time points during the initial 30 days of inclusion. Serum samples were collected after a median time of 7 (IQR 5 - 10), 37 (IQR 35 - 38), 97 (IQR 95 - 100), and 187 (IQR 185 - 190) days after symptom onset. NAb titers were determined by an in-house live virus microneutralization assay. Viral culturing was performed in Vero E6 cells.

RESULTS

Patients with high disease severity had higher mean log2 NAb titers at day 37 (1.58, 95% CI [0.34 -2.81]), 97 (2.07, 95% CI [0.53-3.62]) and 187 (2.49, 95% CI [0.20- 4.78]) after symptom onset, compared to patients with low disease severity. Peak viral load (0.072, 95% CI [- 0.627 - 0.728]), expressed as log10 SARS-CoV-2 copies/ml, was not associated with disease severity. Virus cultivation attempts were unsuccessful in almost all (60/61) oropharyngeal samples collected shortly after hospital admission.

CONCLUSIONS

We document an association between high disease severity and high mean NAb titers at days 37, 97 and 187 after symptom onset. However, peak viral load during admission was not associated with disease severity.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study is registered at https://clinicaltrials.gov/ (NCT05274373).

Remdesivir Influence on SARS-CoV-2 RNA Viral Load Kinetics in Nasopharyngeal Swab Specimens of COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients: A Real-Life Experience

There are still conflicting data on the virological effects of the SARS-CoV-2 direct antivirals used in clinical practice, in spite of the documented clinical efficacy. The aim of this monocentric retrospective study was to compare virologic and laboratory data of patients admitted due to SARS-CoV-2 infection from March to December 2020 treated with either remdesivir (R), a protease inhibitor (lopinavir or darunavir/ritonavir (PI)) or no direct antiviral drugs (NT). Viral load variation was indirectly assessed through PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values on the nasopharyngeal swab, analyzing the results from swabs obtained at ward admission and 7 (±2) days later. Overall, 253 patients were included: patients in the R group were significantly older, more frequently males with a significantly higher percentage of severe COVID-19, requiring more often intensive care admission, compared to the other groups. Ct variation over time did not differ amongst the three treatment groups and did not seem to be influenced by corticosteroid use, even after normalization of the treatment groups for disease severity. Non-survivors had lower Ct on admission and showed a significantly slower viral clearance compared to survivors. CD4 T-lymphocytes absolute count assessed at ward admission correlated with a reduced Ct variation over time. In conclusion, viral clearance appears to be slower in COVID-19 non-survivors, while it seems not to be influenced by the antiviral treatment received.

Predictors of pulmonary involvement in children with COVID-19: How strongly associated is viral load?

The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for pulmonary involvement by examining the demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics of children with COVID-19. We performed a retrospective single-center study of COVID-19 in children treated at a tertiary care hospital in Turkey from December 2020 to June 2021. During the course of the study, 126 patients were evaluated, of whom 70/126 were male. The patients' ages ranged from 1 to 216 (mean, 4.73 ± 81.11) months. Fever (65.9%), cough (52.4%), and shortness of breath (18.3%) were the most common symptoms of COVID-19. Ten patients required noninvasive mechanical ventilation. Sixty-nine patients (54.8%) had pneumonia. Longer duration of fever, hospitalization, and the presence of cough were significantly associated with pulmonary involvement. Children with pneumonia had significantly higher levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and viral load, and significantly lower counts of lymphocytes and thrombocytes. The cutoff viral load, CRP, and procalcitonin values for predicting pulmonary involvement were 26.5 cycle threshold (Ct; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.74; sensitivity, 0.65; specificity, 0.56; area under curve [AUC]: 0.647, p = 0.005), 7.85 mg/L (95% CI, 0.56-0.75; sensitivity, 0.66; specificity, 0.64; AUC = 0.656; p = 0.003) and 0.105 ng/ml (95% CI, 0.52-0.72; sensitivity, 0.55; specificity, 0.58; AUC = 0.626; p = 0.02), respectively. High CRP, procalcitonin levels, ESR, and viral load, and low lymphocyte and thrombocyte counts can predict pulmonary involvement in children with COVID-19, so better management may be provided for good prognosis.

Hospitalization, death, and probable reinfection in Peruvian healthcare workers infected with SARS-CoV-2: a national retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Peru has some of the worst outcomes worldwide as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic; it is presumed that this has also affected healthcare workers. This study aimed to establish whether occupation and other non-occupational variables were risk factors for possible reinfection, hospitalization, and mortality from COVID-19 in cohorts of Peruvian healthcare workers infected with SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study. Healthcare workers who presented SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 1, 2020, and August 6, 2021, were included. Occupational cohorts were reconstructed from the following sources of information: National Epidemiological Surveillance System, molecular tests (NETLAB), results of serology and antigen tests (SICOVID-19), National Registry of Health Personnel (INFORHUS), and National Information System of Deaths (SINADEF). The incidence of probable reinfection, hospitalization, and death from COVID-19 was obtained in the cohorts of technicians and health assistants, nursing staff, midwives, dentists, doctors, and other healthcare workers. We evaluated whether the occupation and other non-occupational variables were risk factors for probable reinfection, hospitalization, and death from COVID-19 using log-binomial and probit binomial models, obtaining the adjusted relative risk (RR_AJ).

RESULTS

90,398 healthcare workers were included in the study. Most cases were seen in technicians and health assistants (38.6%), and nursing staff (25.6%). 8.1% required hospitalization, 1.7% died from COVID-19, and 1.8% had probable reinfection. A similar incidence of probable reinfection was found in the six cohorts (1.7-1.9%). Doctors had a higher incidence of hospitalization (13.2%) and death (2.6%); however, they were also those who presented greater susceptibility linked to non-occupational variables (age and comorbidities). The multivariate analysis found that doctors (RR_AJ = 1.720; CI 95: 1.569-1.886) had a higher risk of hospitalization and that the occupation of technician and health assistant was the only one that constituted a risk factor for mortality from COVID-19 (RR_AJ = 1.256; 95% CI: 1.043-1.512).

CONCLUSIONS

Peruvian technicians and health assistants would have a higher risk of death from COVID-19 than other healthcare workers, while doctors have a higher incidence of death probably linked to the high frequency of non-occupational risk factors. Doctors present a higher risk of hospitalization independent of comorbidities and age; likewise, all occupations show a similar risk of probable reinfection.

Immunogenicity and Efficacy of Monovalent and Bivalent Formulations of a Virus-Like Particle Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2

Virus-like particles (VLPs) offer great potential as a safe and effective vaccine platform against SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. Here, we show that SARS-CoV-2 VLPs can be generated by expression of the four viral structural proteins in a mammalian expression system. Immunization of mice with a monovalent VLP vaccine elicited a potent humoral response, showing neutralizing activity against multiple variants of SARS-CoV-2. Subsequent immunogenicity and efficacy studies were performed in the Golden Syrian hamster model, which closely resembles the pathology and progression of COVID-19 in humans. Hamsters immunized with a bivalent VLP vaccine were significantly protected from infection with the Beta or Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. Vaccinated hamsters showed reduced viral load, shedding, replication, and pathology in the respiratory tract. Immunized hamsters also showed variable levels of cross-neutralizing activity against the Omicron variant. Overall, the VLP vaccine elicited robust protective efficacy against SARS-CoV-2. These promising results warrant further study of multivalent VLP vaccines in Phase I clinical trials in humans.

Evaluating methodological approaches to assess the severity of infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants: scoping review and applications on Belgian COVID-19 data

BACKGROUND

Differences in the genetic material of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants may result in altered virulence characteristics. Assessing the disease severity caused by newly emerging variants is essential to estimate their impact on public health. However, causally inferring the intrinsic severity of infection with variants using observational data is a challenging process on which guidance is still limited. We describe potential limitations and biases that researchers are confronted with and evaluate different methodological approaches to study the severity of infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants.

METHODS

We reviewed the literature to identify limitations and potential biases in methods used to study the severity of infection with a particular variant. The impact of different methodological choices is illustrated by using real-world data of Belgian hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

RESULTS

We observed different ways of defining coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease severity (e.g., admission to the hospital or intensive care unit versus the occurrence of severe complications or death) and exposure to a variant (e.g., linkage of the sequencing or genotyping result with the patient data through a unique identifier versus categorization of patients based on time periods). Different potential selection biases (e.g., overcontrol bias, endogenous selection bias, sample truncation bias) and factors fluctuating over time (e.g., medical expertise and therapeutic strategies, vaccination coverage and natural immunity, pressure on the healthcare system, affected population groups) according to the successive waves of COVID-19, dominated by different variants, were identified. Using data of Belgian hospitalized COVID-19 patients, we were able to document (i) the robustness of the analyses when using different variant exposure ascertainment methods, (ii) indications of the presence of selection bias and (iii) how important confounding variables are fluctuating over time.

CONCLUSIONS

When estimating the unbiased marginal effect of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the severity of infection, different strategies can be used and different assumptions can be made, potentially leading to different conclusions. We propose four best practices to identify and reduce potential bias introduced by the study design, the data analysis approach, and the features of the underlying surveillance strategies and data infrastructure.

Predictors of SARS-CoV-2 RNA From Nasopharyngeal Swabs and Concordance With Other Compartments in Nonhospitalized Adults With Mild to Moderate COVID-19

Background

Identifying characteristics associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA shedding may be useful to understand viral compartmentalization, disease pathogenesis, and risks for viral transmission.

Methods

Participants were enrolled August 2020 to February 2021 in ACTIV-2/A5401, a placebo-controlled platform trial evaluating investigational therapies for mild-to-moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and underwent quantitative SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing on nasopharyngeal and anterior nasal swabs, oral wash/saliva, and plasma at entry (day 0, pretreatment) and days 3, 7, 14, and 28. Concordance of RNA levels (copies/mL) across compartments and predictors of nasopharyngeal RNA levels were assessed at entry (n = 537). Predictors of changes over time were evaluated among placebo recipients (n = 265) with censored linear regression models.

Results

Nasopharyngeal and anterior nasal RNA levels at study entry were highly correlated (r = 0.84); higher levels of both were associated with greater detection of RNA in plasma and oral wash/saliva. Older age, White non-Hispanic race/ethnicity, lower body mass index (BMI), SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G seronegativity, and shorter prior symptom duration were associated with higher nasopharyngeal RNA at entry. In adjusted models, body mass index and race/ethnicity associations were attenuated, but the association with age remained (for every 10 years older, mean nasopharyngeal RNA was 0.27 log10 copies/mL higher; P < .001). Examining longitudinal viral RNA levels among placebo recipients, women had faster declines in nasopharyngeal RNA than men (mean change, -2.0 vs -1.3 log10 copies/mL, entry to day 3; P < .001).

Conclusions

SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding was concordant across compartments. Age was strongly associated with viral shedding, and men had slower viral clearance than women, which could explain sex differences in acute COVID-19 outcomes.

Plasma SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen levels are associated with progression to severe disease in hospitalized COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Studies quantifying SARS-CoV-2 have focused on upper respiratory tract or plasma viral RNA with inconsistent association with clinical outcomes. The association between plasma viral antigen levels and clinical outcomes has not been previously studied. Our aim was to investigate the relationship between plasma SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen (N-antigen) concentration and both markers of host response and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

SARS-CoV-2 N-antigen concentrations were measured in the first study plasma sample (D0), collected within 72 h of hospital admission, from 256 subjects admitted between March 2020 and August 2021 in a prospective observational cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The rank correlations between plasma N-antigen and plasma biomarkers of tissue damage, coagulation, and inflammation were assessed. Multiple ordinal regression was used to test the association between enrollment N-antigen plasma concentration and the primary outcome of clinical deterioration at one week as measured by a modified World Health Organization (WHO) ordinal scale. Multiple logistic regression was used to test the association between enrollment plasma N-antigen concentration and the secondary outcomes of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation at 28 days, and death at 28 days. The prognostic discrimination of an externally derived "high antigen" cutoff of N-antigen ≥ 1000 pg/mL was also tested.

RESULTS

N-antigen on D0 was detectable in 84% of study participants. Plasma N-antigen levels significantly correlated with RAGE (r = 0.61), IL-10 (r = 0.59), and IP-10 (r = 0.59, adjusted p = 0.01 for all correlations). For the primary outcome of clinical status at one week, each 500 pg/mL increase in plasma N-antigen level was associated with an adjusted OR of 1.05 (95% CI 1.03-1.08) for worse WHO ordinal status. D0 plasma N-antigen ≥ 1000 pg/mL was 77% sensitive and 59% specific (AUROC 0.68) with a positive predictive value of 23% and a negative predictive value of 93% for a worse WHO ordinal scale at day 7 compared to baseline. D0 N-antigen concentration was independently associated with ICU admission and 28-day mechanical ventilation, but not with death at 28 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Plasma N-antigen levels are readily measured and provide important insight into the pathogenesis and prognosis of COVID-19. The measurement of N-antigen levels early in-hospital course may improve risk stratification, especially for identifying patients who are unlikely to progress to severe disease.

A comprehensive review of BBV152 vaccine development, effectiveness, safety, challenges, and prospects

The world has responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with unprecedented speed and vigor in the mass vaccination campaigns, targeted to reduce COVID-19 severity and mortality, reduce the pressure on the healthcare system, re-open society, and reduction in disease mortality and morbidity. Here we review the preclinical and clinical development of BBV152, a whole virus inactivated vaccine and an important tool in the fight to control this pandemic. BBV152, formulated with a TLR7/8 agonist adjuvant generates a Th1-biased immune response that induces high neutralization efficacy against different SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and robust long-term memory B- and T-cell responses. With seroconversion rates as high as 98.3% in vaccinated individuals, BBV152 shows 77.8% and 93.4% protection from symptomatic COVID-19 disease and severe symptomatic COVID-19 disease respectively. Studies in pediatric populations show superior immunogenicity (geometric mean titer ratio of 1.76 compared to an adult) with a seroconversion rate of >95%. The reactogenicity and safety profiles were comparable across all pediatric age groups between 2-18 yrs. as in adults. Like most approved vaccines, the BBV152 booster given 6 months after full vaccination, reverses a waning immunity, restores the neutralization efficacy, and shows synergy in a heterologous prime-boost study with about 3-fold or 300% increase in neutralization titers against multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. Based on the interim Phase III data, BBV152 received full authorization for adults and emergency use authorization for children from ages 6 to 18 years in India. It is also licensed for emergency use in 14 countries globally. Over 313 million vaccine doses have already been administered in India alone by April 18th, 2022.

SARS-CoV-2 viral load in the upper respiratory tract and disease severity in COVID-19 patients

Due to the disease's broad clinical spectrum, it is currently unclear how to predict the future prognosis of patients at the time of diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is the gold standard molecular technique for diagnosing COVID-19. The number of amplification cycles necessary for the target genes to surpass a threshold level is represented by the RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values. Ct values were thought to be an adequate proxy for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load. A body of evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 viral load is a possible predictor of COVID-19 severity. The link between SARS-CoV-2 viral load and the likelihood of severe disease development in COVID-19 patients is not clearly elucidated. In this review, we describe the scientific data as well as the important findings from many clinical studies globally, emphasizing how viral load may be related to disease severity in COVID-19 patients. Most of the evidence points to the association of SARS-CoV-2 viral load and disease severity in these patients, and early anti-viral treatment will reduce the severe clinical outcomes.

Defining resistance and tolerance traits in Covid-19: towards a stratified medicine approach

Successful host defence against infectious disease involves resistance (reduce pathogen load) and tolerance (reduce tissue damage associated with pathogen presence). Integration of clinical, immunologic, genetic and therapeutic discoveries has identified defects in both of these responses in the progression from SARS-CoV-2 infection to life-threatening coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) lung injury. Early after infection with SARS-CoV-2, resistance can be compromised by a failed type 1 interferon (IFN-I) response, due to direct viral antagonism of induction and signalling, deleterious host genetic variants (IFNAR2, IFNA10, TYK2 and PLSCR1), and neutralizing auto-antibodies directed against IFN-I (predominantly IFN-α). Later in the disease, after pathogen sensing has activated a pro-inflammatory response, a failure to appropriately regulate this response compromises tolerance resulting in virus-independent immunopathology involving the lung and reticuloendothelial system. Monocytes are activated in the periphery (involving M-CSF, GM-CSF, IL-6, NLRP1 inflammasomes, TYK2 and afucosylated anti-spike IgG) then recruited to the lung (involving CCR2::MCP-3/MCP-1 and C5a::C5aR1 axes) as pro-inflammatory monocyte-derived macrophages, resulting in inflammatory lung injury. Phenotypic and genotypic heterogeneity is apparent in all these responses, identifying 'treatable traits' (therapeutically relevant components of inter-individual variation) which could be exploited to achieve a stratified medicine approach to Covid-19. Overall, Covid-19 pathogenesis re-affirms the importance of resistance in surviving an infectious disease and highlights that tolerance is also a central pillar of host defence in humans and can be beneficially modified using host-directed therapies.

The Impact of the Highly Virulent SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant on Young Adults in the State of São Paulo: Was It Inevitable?

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had and is still having a tremendous impact on people all over the world, but it has been particularly harsh in South America. Nine out of 13 South American countries are among the 50 countries with the highest COVID-19 death rates. The gamma severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant that emerged by the end of 2020 in the Brazilian Amazon quickly spread throughout the country causing the harsh COVID-19 second wave. This variant displayed high viral loads, high transmissibility, and increased virulence as compared to previous variants.

Aims

The aim of this retrospective study is to revisit and analyse the epidemiology of the COVID-19 second wave in the state of São Paulo, the most populous Brazilian state. In addition to examining the possible factors that led to the emergence and propagation of the gamma variant, measures that could have prevented its spread and that of other highly virulent variants were also investigated.

Materials and methods

Data from São Paulo's official sources on morbidity, mortality, age distribution, and testing prior to and during the COVID-19 second wave (February - June 2021) and data regarding the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the country were parsed, analyzed, and compared to the period that anteceded the eruption of the second COVID-19 wave.

Results

In the state of São Paulo, the toll of the COVID-19 second wave surpassed that of the first 11 months of the pandemic (from March 2020 to January 2021), as 56% of the deaths occurred in the five months of the second wave between February and June 2021. The mean age of COVID-19 victims, which was already below life expectancy in the state dropped even further in the pandemic's second wave, reaching an average of 60 years of age. The years of life lost per death per month doubled and the case-fatality rate (CFR) of young adults (20-39 years old) more than trebled during this period. A number of hypotheses have been raised that might explain the emergence and spread of the gamma variant and the measures that could have been taken to prevent it and minimise its impact on the population.

Conclusions

Over 142,000 people died as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 gamma variant sweep in São Paulo in the first semester of 2021. Due to its high viral load, the gamma variant displayed high transmissibility and a high degree of virulence resulting in increased case fatality rates across most age tiers. Notably, this second wave was marked by a very significant increase in deaths among young adults. This increase was at least partially due to a deterioration in general health provoked by non-pharmaceutical interventions. In hindsight, a safer and more effective measure might have been to allow the free spread of the virus among the young and healthy in the first wave, thus conferring immunity against more virulent variants that emerged later on.

Protective and pathogenic role of humoral responses in COVID-19

Since the advent of SARS-CoV-2 in Dec. 2019, the global endeavor to identify the pathogenic mechanism of COVID-19 has been ongoing. Although humoral immunity including neutralizing activity play an important role in protection from the viral pathogen, dysregulated antibody responses may be associated with the pathogenic progression of COVID-19, especially in high-risk individuals. In addition, SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific antibodies acquired by prior infection or vaccination act as immune pressure, driving continuous population turnover by selecting for antibody-escaping mutations. Here, we review accumulating knowledge on the potential role of humoral immune responses in COVID-19, primarily focusing on their beneficial and pathogenic properties. Understanding the multifaceted regulatory mechanisms of humoral responses during SARS-CoV-2 infection can help us to develop more effective therapeutics, as well as protective measures against the ongoing pandemic.

Viral Load in COVID-19 Patients: Implications for Prognosis and Vaccine Efficacy in the Context of Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants

The worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused an unprecedented public health crisis in the 21st century. As the pandemic evolves, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has been characterized by the emergence of new variants of concern (VOCs), which resulted in a catastrophic impact on SARS-CoV-2 infection. In light of this, research groups around the world are unraveling key aspects of the associated illness, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A cumulative body of data has indicated that the SARS-CoV-2 viral load may be a determinant of the COVID-19 severity. Here we summarize the main characteristics of the emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2, discussing their impact on viral transmissibility, viral load, disease severity, vaccine breakthrough, and lethality among COVID-19 patients. We also provide a rundown of the rapidly expanding scientific evidence from clinical studies and animal models that indicate how viral load could be linked to COVID-19 prognosis and vaccine efficacy among vaccinated individuals, highlighting the differences compared to unvaccinated individuals.

Isolation and Identification of a Rare Spike Gene Double-Deletion SARS-CoV-2 Variant From the Patient With High Cycle Threshold Value

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging life-threatening pulmonary disease caused by infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which originated in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019. COVID-19 develops after close contact via inhalation of respiratory droplets containing SARS-CoV-2 during talking, coughing, or sneezing by asymptomatic, presymptomatic, and symptomatic carriers. This virus evolved over time, and numerous genetic variants have been reported to have increased disease severity, mortality, and transmissibility. Variants have also developed resistance to antivirals and vaccination and can escape the immune response of humans. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is the method of choice among diagnostic techniques, including nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs), serological tests, and diagnostic imaging, such as computed tomography (CT). The limitation of RT-PCR is that it cannot distinguish fragmented RNA genomes from live transmissible viruses. Thus, SARS-CoV-2 isolation by using cell culture has been developed and makes important contributions in the field of diagnosis, development of antivirals, vaccines, and SARS-CoV-2 virology research. In this research, two SARS-CoV-2 strains were isolated from four RT-PCR-positive nasopharyngeal swabs using VERO E6 cell culture. One isolate was cultured successfully with a blind passage on day 3 post inoculation from a swab with a Ct > 35, while the cells did not develop cytopathic effects without a blind passage until day 14 post inoculation. Our results indicated that infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus particles existed, even with a Ct > 35. Cultivable viruses could provide additional consideration for releasing the patient from quarantine. The results of the whole genome sequencing and bioinformatic analysis suggested that these two isolates contain a spike 68-76del+spike 675-679del double-deletion variation. The double deletion was confirmed by amplification of the regions spanning the spike gene deletion using Sanger sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that this double-deletion variant was rare (one per million in public databases, including GenBank and GISAID). The impact of this double deletion in the spike gene on the SARS-CoV-2 virus itself as well as on cultured cells and/or humans remains to be further elucidated.

Longitudinally monitored immune biomarkers predict the timing of COVID-19 outcomes

The clinical outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies widely between individuals. Machine learning models can support decision making in healthcare by assessing fatality risk in patients that do not yet show severe signs of COVID-19. Most predictive models rely on static demographic features and clinical values obtained upon hospitalization. However, time-dependent biomarkers associated with COVID-19 severity, such as antibody titers, can substantially contribute to the development of more accurate outcome models. Here we show that models trained on immune biomarkers, longitudinally monitored throughout hospitalization, predicted mortality and were more accurate than models based on demographic and clinical data upon hospital admission. Our best-performing predictive models were based on the temporal analysis of anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG titers, white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil and lymphocyte counts. These biomarkers, together with C-reactive protein and blood urea nitrogen levels, were found to correlate with severity of disease and mortality in a time-dependent manner. Shapley additive explanations of our model revealed the higher predictive value of day post-symptom onset (PSO) as hospitalization progresses and showed how immune biomarkers contribute to predict mortality. In sum, we demonstrate that the kinetics of immune biomarkers can inform clinical models to serve as a powerful monitoring tool for predicting fatality risk in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, underscoring the importance of contextualizing clinical parameters according to their time post-symptom onset.