Model-based extrapolation of ecological systems under future climate scenarios: The example of Ixodes ricinus ticks

Tick hazard in a Central European country: Mapping Europe's principal tick-borne disease vector across Germany

The most common European tick species, Ixodes ricinus, is the principal vector of Borrelia and tick-borne encephalitis virus and several other pathogens of public health relevance in Europe. Comprehensive data on tick abundance and the underlying ecological drivers are crucial for developing awareness and control strategies and to assess future changes in tick-borne disease risk. We aimed to provide a Germany-wide map of I. ricinus abundance to aid in disease transmission risk assessment. During 2018-2020, questing tick density was assessed at 83 sites across the whole country by drag flagging, whereby 49,344 I. ricinus nymphs and adults were collected. Relationships between climate, land cover, and monthly questing I. ricinus nymph density were explored and used to draw an abundance map. Highest tick hazard was observed in areas near the coast with mild winters and moist springs, and in mid-elevation mountain ranges, which represent popular tourist destinations. The ticks' seasonal activity pattern was predominantly unimodal. The fact that the observed regional differences are contradictory to a previous estimation based on a combination of regional studies illustrates the need for an extensive and coordinated sampling effort to reliably estimate tick abundance at larger spatial scales. Combined with data on tick-borne pathogens, our study enables estimating the density of infected ticks and consequently the risk of acquiring an infectious tick bite. Moreover, the observed relationships with climate and land cover can help to predict future developments of tick hazard under different climate scenarios in Central Europe.

Modelling the impact of climate and the environment on the spatiotemporal dynamics of Lyme borreliosis in Germany

BACKGROUND

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is a predominant vector-borne disease in Europe, with Germany reporting endemic circulation for at least the past two decades. Climatic and environmental conditions are key drivers of tick activity, and human exposure to tick bites. Understanding the climatic and environmental factors driving LB dynamics can help devise decision-support tools to guide interventions and adaptation strategies.

METHODS

Using a Bayesian modelling framework, we assessed the delayed and nonlinear associations between climate variation and land use change and monthly LB case counts from the German national notification system at a district level from 2009 to 2022. We evaluated the predictive performance of our model and then predicted risk trends in states without mandatory notification. We then used the fitted risk function for maximum temperature to assess long-term trends in relative risk since the 1950s.

FINDINGS

Our analyses revealed that climate and environmental factors are positively associated with LB cases reported to the national notification system. Maximum temperature between 10.5 °C and 26.3 °C two to four months prior, relative humidity levels exceeding 78.8% six months prior, and exceptionally wet conditions accumulated over three months, lagged by one month, were associated with an increased risk of LB. The effect of relative humidity was only relevant in areas suitable for deer population, potentially linked to tick survival. Predictions from our model identified significant increasing trends in Schleswig-Holstein, Hamburg, and Lower Saxony, three states without mandatory case notification. We also observed an increasing trend in maximum-temperature related LB relative risk in all Federal States, with the largest percentage change in the period 2013-2022 in northern districts, compared to 1951-1970.

INTERPRETATION

Our study underscores the role of climatic variables as potential drivers of LB risk in Germany. We identified optimal conditions that may be related to human exposure and tick survival and detected long-term upward trends nationwide, including in areas without mandatory notification. This decision-support modelling framework emphasises the added value of expanding LB surveillance in Germany and across Europe to address the emerging risk of tick-borne infectious diseases.

FUNDING

Helmholtz Association, Helmholtz Climate Initiative, Wellcome Trust, Royal Society, and Horizon Europe.

Predicting the distribution of Ixodes ricinus in Europe: integrating microclimatic factors into ecological niche models

Ixodes ricinus, commonly known as the castor bean tick and sheep tick, is a significant vector of various diseases, such as tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis. Owing to climate change, the distribution and activity of I. ricinus are expected to increase, leading to an increase in the number of diseases transmitted by this species. Most distribution models and ecological niche models utilize macroclimate datasets such as WorldClim or CHELSA to map the distribution of disease-transmitting ticks. However, microclimatic factors are crucial for the activity and survival of small arthropods. In this study, an ecological niche modelling approach was used to assess the climatic suitability of I. ricinus using both microclimatic and macroclimatic parameters. A Mixed model was built by combining parameters from the Soiltemp (microclimate) and Wordclim (macroclimate) databases, whereas a Macroclimate model was built with the CHELSA dataset. Additionally, future suitabilities were projected via the macroclimate model under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Macroclimate and Mixed models showed similar distributions, confirming the current distribution of I. ricinus. The most important climatic factors were seasonality, annual temperature range, humidity and precipitation. Future projections suggest significant expansion in northern and eastern Europe, with notable declines in southern Europe.

The Role of Environmental Factors in Lyme Disease Transmission in the European Union: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Lyme disease (LD) is an emergent vector-borne disease caused by Borrelia spp. and transmitted through infected ticks, mainly Ixodes spp. Our objective was to determine meteorological and environmental factors associated with LD transmission in Europe and the effect of climate change on LD.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic review following the PRISMA guidelines was performed. We selected studies on LD transmission in the European Union (EU) and the European Economic Area (EEA) published between 2000 and 2022. The protocol was registered in the PROSPERO database.

RESULTS

We included 81 studies. The impact of environmental, meteorological or climate change factors on tick vectors was studied in 65 papers (80%), and the impact on human LD cases was studied in 16 papers (19%), whereas animal hosts were only addressed in one study (1%). A significant positive relationship was observed between temperature and precipitation and the epidemiology of LD, although contrasting results were found among studies. Other positive factors were humidity and the expansion of anthropized habitats.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemiology of LD seems to be related to climatic factors that are changing globally due to ongoing climate change. Unfortunately, the complete zoonotic cycle was not systematically analyzed. It is important to adopt a One Health approach to understand LD epidemiology.

The biology of Ixodes ricinus with emphasis on its ecology

Prior to its identification as the vector of Lyme borreliosis spirochaetes in Europe in 1983, interest in Ixodes ricinus (L.) was moderate and mainly concerned the transmission of pathogens to farm animals and of tick-borne encephalitis virus to humans. The situation now is very different, and more papers have been published on I. ricinus than on any other ixodid tick species. However, this large literature is scattered and in recent years has become dominated by the molecular detection and characterization of the many pathogens that I. ricinus transmits. Several decades have now elapsed since a review addressing its basic biology and ecology appeared, and the present publication seeks to present basic aspects of its biology and ecology that are related to its role as a vector of disease agents, including its life cycle, feeding behaviour, host relations, survival off the host, and the impact of weather and climate.

An Agenda for Research of Uncovered Epidemiological Patterns of Tick-Borne Pathogens Affecting Human Health

The panorama of ticks and tick-borne pathogens (TBP) is complex due to the many interactions among vertebrates, vectors, and habitats, occurring at different scales. At a broad spatial range, climate and host availability regulate most tick processes, including questing activity, development, and survival. At a local scale, interactions are obscured by a high indeterminacy, making it arduous to record in field surveys. A solid modelling framework could translate the local/regional empirical findings into larger scales, shedding light on the processes governing the circulation of TBP. In this opinion paper, we advocate for a re-formulation of some paradigms in the research of these outstanding cycles of transmission. We propose revisiting concepts that faced criticisms or lacked solid support, together with the development of a conceptual scheme exploring the circulation of TBP under a range of conditions. We encourage (i) an adequate interpretation of the niche concept of both ticks and vertebrate/reservoir hosts interpreting the (a)biotic components that shape the tick's niche, (ii) an assessment of the role played by the communities of wild vertebrates on the circulation of pathogens, and (iii) the development of new approaches, based on state-of-the-art epidemiological concepts, to integrate findings and modelling efforts on TBP over large regions.

Climate Changes Exacerbate the Spread of Ixodes ricinus and the Occurrence of Lyme Borreliosis and Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe-How Climate Models Are Used as a Risk Assessment Approach for Tick-Borne Diseases

Climate change has influenced the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, which is a pressing public health challenge for the coming decades. Numerous theories have been developed in order to explain how tick-borne diseases are associated with climate change. These theories include higher proliferation rates, extended transmission season, changes in ecological balances, and climate-related migration of vectors, reservoir hosts, or human populations. Changes of the epidemiological pattern have potentially catastrophic consequences, resulting in increasing prevalence of tick-borne diseases. Thus, investigation of the relationship between climate change and tick-borne diseases is critical. In this regard, climate models that predict the ticks’ geographical distribution changes can be used as a predicting tool. The aim of this review is to provide the current evidence regarding the contribution of the climatic changes to Lyme borreliosis (LB) disease and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) and to present how computational models will advance our understanding of the relationship between climate change and tick-borne diseases in Europe.