Evaluation of accuracy and performance of self-reported HIV and antiretroviral therapy status in the Nigeria AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (2018)

Development and calibration of a mathematical model of HIV outcomes among Rwandan adults: Informing achievement of global targets across sub-populations in Rwanda

BACKGROUND

We developed and calibrated the Central Africa-International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (CA-IeDEA) HIV policy model to inform achievement of global goals, overall and across all sub-populations, in Rwanda.

METHODS

We created a deterministic dynamic model to project adult HIV epidemic and care continuum outcomes, overall and for 35 subpopulations (age group, sex, HIV acquisition risk, urbanicity). Data came from the Rwanda cohort of CA-IeDEA, 2004-2020; Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys, 2005, 2010, 2015; Rwanda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment, 2019; and literature and reports. We calibrated the model to 47 targets by selecting 50 best-fitting parameter sets. Targets reflected epidemic, global goals and other indicators. Best-fitting sets minimized the summed absolute value of the percentage deviation (AVPD) between projections and targets. Good performance was mean AVPD ≤5% across best-fitting sets and/or projections within target confidence intervals; acceptable was mean AVPD >5%-15%.

RESULTS

Across indicators, 1,843 of 2,350 (78.4%) model projections were a good or acceptable fit to calibration targets. For HIV epidemic indicators, 247 of 300 (82.3%) projections were a good fit to targets, with the model performing better for women (80.3% a good fit) than for men (62.3% a good fit). For global goals indicators, 97 of 100 (97.0%) projections were a good fit; model performance was similar for women and men. For other indicators, 708 of 950 (74.5%) projections were a good or acceptable fit. Fit was better for women than for men (percentage virally suppressed only) and when restricting targets for number on ART to 2013 and beyond.

CONCLUSIONS

The CA-IeDEA HIV policy model fits historical data and can inform policy solutions for achieving global goals across all sub-populations in Rwanda. High-quality population-based data and novel approaches that account for calibration target quality are critical to ongoing use of mathematical models for programmatic planning.

Non-disclosure of Known HIV Status among People Living with HIV in the Mozambique Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (INSIDA 2021)

Non-disclosure of known HIV-positive status is a barrier to ending HIV as a global health threat as it leads to biased measurements of HIV-treatment coverage indicators and inaccurate estimates of epidemic progress, resulting in wasted resources. Identifying and understanding factors driving non-disclosure among people living with HIV is necessary for encouraging engagement with HIV services and improving treatment coverage, resource allocation, and monitoring of HIV programs in high HIV-burden areas. This analysis assessed factors associated with non-disclosure among survey respondents who had antiretrovirals (ARVs) detected in blood specimens. HIV-positive blood specimens (n = 2,038) from the 2021 Mozambique Population-based HIV Impact Assessment were tested for the presence of ARVs. Weighted prevalence estimates of non-disclosure and select covariates are reported and factors associated with non-disclosure modeled via multivariate logistic regression. Among 1,358 respondents with ARVs detected, 14.1% did not self-report their HIV-positive status during the interview. Adjusting for socio-demographic and clinical factors, non-disclosure was more likely among younger participants aged 15-24 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.15, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.16-4.01) and among those without knowledge of their recent sexual partner's HIV-status (aOR: 2.67, 95%CI: 1.38-5.15). Participants with an unsuppressed viral load were over six times (aOR: 6.27, 95%CI: 2.76-14.23) more likely to not disclose. Improving disclosure rates is vital to obtaining accurate HIV-treatment estimates and assessing epidemic progress. Initiatives prioritizing pre- and post-test counseling, stressing treatment literacy, emphasizing undetectable = untransmittable (U = U) campaigns, and encouraging programs that promote social support may encourage disclosure among individuals living with HIV.

Principal component analysis of the Serological response to Plasmodium Falciparum using a Multiplex bead-based assay in Nigeria

Characterization of serological responses to Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) is of interest to understand disease burden and transmission dynamics; however, their interpretation is challenging. Dried blood spots from 30,815 participants aged 6 months to 15 years from the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey were analyzed by multiplex bead-based assay to measure immunoglobulin G (IgG) to Pf-stage-specific MSP-1, AMA-1, GLURPR0, LSA-1, and CSP. These IgG levels were analyzed by principal component analysis (PCA). PC1 and PC2 scores explained 41% and 17% of the total variance, respectively. PC1 unit vectors represented seropositivity. PC2 unit vectors for blood-stage antigens were in opposite directions to liver-stage and sporozoite antigens. PC2 scores were correlated with MSP-1 positively (R = 0.52, P < 0.001) and CSP negatively (R=-0.65, P < 0.001) and may help identify areas with prior exposure but higher risk for increased infections or epidemics. PCA of Pf serology can provide summary scores to possibly inform future programmatic interventions.

Guidance for Triangulating Data and Estimates of HIV Prevalence Among Pregnant Women and Coverage of PMTCT Using the Spectrum AIDS Impact Module

BACKGROUND

Most countries use the Spectrum AIDS Impact Module (Spectrum-AIM), antenatal care routine HIV testing, and antiretroviral treatment data to estimate HIV prevalence among pregnant women. Nonrepresentative program data may lead to inaccurate estimates of HIV prevalence and treatment coverage for pregnant women.

SETTING

One hundred fifty-four countries and subnational locations across 126 countries.

METHODS

Using 2023 UNAIDS HIV estimates, we calculated 3 ratios: (1) HIV prevalence among pregnant women to all women 15-49 yrs (prevalence), (2) ART coverage before pregnancy to women 15-49 yrs ART coverage (ART prepregnancy), and (3) ART coverage at delivery to women 15-49 yrs ART coverage (PMTCT coverage). We developed an algorithm to identify and adjust inconsistent results within regional ranges in Spectrum-AIM, illustrated using Burkina Faso estimates.

RESULTS

In 2022, the mean regional ratio of prevalence among pregnant women to all women ranged from 0.68 to 0.95. ART coverage prepregnancy ranged by region from 0.40 to 1.22 times ART coverage among all women. Mean regional PMTCT coverage ratios ranged from 0.85 to 1.51. The prevalence ratio in Burkina Faso was 1.59, above the typical range 0.62-1.04 in western and central Africa. Antenatal clinics reported more PMTCT recipients than estimated HIV-positive pregnant women from 2015 to 2019. We adjusted inputted PMTCT program data to enable consistency of HIV prevalence among pregnant women from programmatic routine HIV testing at antenatal clinics with values typical for western and central Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

These ratios offer Spectrum-AIM users a tool to gauge the consistency of their HIV prevalence and treatment coverage estimates among pregnant women with other countries in the region.

People Who Self-Reported Testing HIV-Positive but Tested HIV-Negative: A Multi-Country Puzzle of Data, Serology, and Ethics, 2015-2021

During population-based HIV impact assessments (PHIAs), some participants who self-reported testing HIV-positive (PSRP) tested negative in one or more subsequent survey HIV tests. These unexpected discrepancies between their self-reported results and the survey results draw into question the validity of either the self-reported status or the test results. We analyzed PSRP with negative test results aged 15-59 years old using data collected from 2015 to 2021 in 13 countries, assessing prevalence, self-report status, survey HIV status, viral load, rapid tests and confirmatory tests, and answers to follow-up questions (such as years on treatment). Across these surveys, 19,026 participants were PSRP, and 256 (1.3%) of these were concluded to be HIV-negative after additional survey-based testing and review. PSRP determined to be HIV-negative trended higher in countries with a higher HIV prevalence, but their number was small enough that accepting self-reported HIV-positive status without testing would not have significantly affected the prevalence estimates for HIV or viral load suppression. Additionally, using more detailed information for Uganda, we examined 107 PSRP with any negative test results and found no significant correlation with years on treatment or age. Using these details, we examined support for the possible reasons for these discrepancies beyond misdiagnosis and false reporting. These findings suggest that those conducting surveys would benefit from a nuanced understanding of HIV testing among PSRP to conduct surveys ethically and produce high-quality results.

Development and calibration of a mathematical model of HIV outcomes among Rwandan adults: informing equitable achievement of targets in Rwanda

Background

We developed and calibrated the Central Africa-International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (CA-IeDEA) HIV policy model to inform equitable achievement of global goals, overall and across sub-populations, in Rwanda.

Methods

We created a deterministic dynamic model to project adult HIV epidemic and care continuum outcomes, overall and for 25 subpopulations (age group, sex, HIV acquisition risk, urbanicity). Data came from the Rwanda cohort of CA-IeDEA, 2004-2020; Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys, 2005, 2010, 2015; Rwanda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment, 2019; and the literature and reports. We calibrated the model to 47 targets by selecting the 50 best-fitting parameter sets among 20,000 simulations. Calibration targets reflected epidemic (HIV prevalence, incidence), global goals (percentage on antiretroviral therapy (ART) among diagnosed, percentage virally suppressed among on ART) and other (number on ART, percentage virally suppressed) indicators, overall and by sex. Best-fitting sets minimized the summed absolute value of the percentage deviation (AVPD) between model projections and calibration targets. Good model performance was mean AVPD ≤5% across the 50 best-fitting sets and/or projections within the target confidence intervals; acceptable was mean AVPD >5% and ≤15%.

Results

Across indicators, 1,841 of 2,350 (78.3%) model projections were a good or acceptable fit to calibration targets. For HIV epidemic indicators, 256 of 300 (85.3%) projections were a good fit to targets, with the model performing better for women (83.3% a good fit) than for men (71.7% a good fit). For global goals indicators, 96 of 100 (96.0%) projections were a good fit; model performance was similar for women and men. For other indicators, 653 of 950 (68.7%) projections were a good or acceptable fit. Fit was better for women than for men (percentage virally suppressed only) and when restricting targets for number on ART to 2013 and beyond.

Conclusions

The CA-IeDEA HIV policy model fits historical data and can inform policy solutions for equitably achieving global goals to end the HIV epidemic in Rwanda. High-quality, unbiased population-based data, as well as novel approaches that account for calibration target quality, are critical to ongoing use of mathematical models for programmatic planning.

Characterizing HIV drug resistance in cases of vertical transmission in the VESTED randomized antiretroviral treatment trial

Introduction

VESTED (NCT03048422) compared the safety and efficacy of three antiretroviral treatment (ART) regimens in pregnant and postpartum women: dolutegravir+emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide fumarate; dolutegravir+emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF); efavirenz/emtricitabine/TDF. Vertical HIV transmission (VT) occurred to 4/617 (0.60%) live-born infants, who were evaluated for HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) and other risk factors.

Setting

In 2018-2020, pregnant (weeks-14-28) women living with HIV and ≤14 days of ART were enrolled at 22 international sites and followed with their infants through 50 weeks postpartum.

Methods

HIV sequences derived by single genome amplification (SGA) from longitudinally collected specimens were assessed from VT Cases for HIVDR in protease, reverse transcriptase, integrase, and the nef 3'polypurine tract (3'PPT).

Results

The four Case mothers were prescribed efavirenz-based-ART for 1-7 days prior to randomization to study ART. Their infants received postnatal nevirapine+/-zidovudine prophylaxis and were breastfed. A total of 833 SGA sequences were derived. The "major" (Stanford HIVDR Score ≥60) non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) mutation (K103N) was detected persistently in one viremic mother, and likely contributed to VT of HIVDR. Major NNRTI HIVDR mutations were detected in all three surviving infants. No integrase, nor high frequencies of 3'PPT mutations conferring dolutegravir HIVDR were detected. The timing of HIV infant diagnosis, plasma HIV RNA levels and HIVDR suggests one in utero, one peripartum, one early, and one late breastfeeding transmission.

Conclusions

VT was rare. New-onset NNRTI HIVDR in Case mothers was likely from efavirenz-ART prescribed prior to study dolutegravir-ART, and in one case appeared transmitted to the infant despite nevirapine prophylaxis.

Guidance for triangulating data and estimates of HIV prevalence among pregnant women and coverage of PMTCT using the Spectrum AIDS Impact Module

Background

Most countries use the Spectrum AIDS Impact Module (Spectrum-AIM), antenatal care routine HIV testing, and antiretroviral treatment data to estimate HIV prevalence among pregnant women. Non-representative programme data may lead to inaccurate estimates HIV prevalence and treatment coverage for pregnant women.

Setting

154 locations in 126 countries.

Methods

Using 2023 UNAIDS HIV estimates, we calculated three ratios: (1) HIV prevalence among pregnant women to all women 15-49y (prevalence), (2) ART coverage before pregnancy to women 15-49y ART coverage (ART pre-pregnancy), and (3) ART coverage at delivery to women 15-49y ART coverage (PMTCT coverage). We developed an algorithm to identify and adjust inconsistent results within regional ranges in Spectrum-AIM, illustrated using Burkina Faso's estimates.

Results

In 2022, the mean regional ratio of prevalence among pregnant women to all women ranged from 0.68 to 0.95. ART coverage pre-pregnancy ranged by region from 0.40 to 1.22 times ART coverage among all women. Mean regional PMTCT coverage ratios ranged from 0.85 to 1.51. The prevalence ratio in Burkina Faso was 1.59, above the typical range 0.62-1.04 in western and central Africa. Antenatal clinics reported more PMTCT recipients than estimated HIV-positive pregnant women from 2015 to 2019. We adjusted inputted PMTCT programme data to enable consistency of HIV prevalence among pregnant women from programmatic routine HIV testing at antenatal clinics with values typical for Western and central Africa.

Conclusion

These ratios offer Spectrum-AIM users a tool to gauge the consistency of their HIV prevalence and treatment coverage estimates among pregnant women with other countries in the region.

Brief Report: Self-Reported HIV-Positive Status but Subsequent HIV-Negative Test Results in Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Survey Participants-11 Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2015-2018

BACKGROUND

HIV testing is a critical step to accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART) because early diagnosis can facilitate earlier initiation of ART. This study presents aggregated data of individuals who self-reported being HIV-positive but subsequently tested HIV-negative during nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys conducted in 11 countries from 2015 to 2018.

METHOD

Survey participants aged 15 years or older were interviewed by trained personnel using a standard questionnaire to determine HIV testing history and self-reported HIV status. Home-based HIV testing and counseling using rapid diagnostic tests with return of results were performed by survey staff according to the respective national HIV testing services algorithms on venous blood samples. Laboratory-based confirmatory HIV testing for all participants identified as HIV-positives and self-reported positives, irrespective of HIV testing results, was conducted and included Geenius HIV-1/2 and DNA polymerase chain reaction if Geenius was negative or indeterminate.

RESULTS

Of the 16,630 participants who self-reported as HIV-positive, 16,432 (98.6%) were confirmed as HIV-positive and 198 (1.4%) were HIV-negative by subsequent laboratory-based testing. Participants who self-reported as HIV-positive but tested HIV-negative were significantly younger than 30 years, less likely to have received ART, and less likely to have received a CD4 test compared with participants who self-reported as HIV-positive with laboratory-confirmed infection.

CONCLUSIONS

A small proportion of self-reported HIV-positive individuals could not be confirmed as positive, which could be due to initial misdiagnosis, deliberate wrong self-report, or misunderstanding of the questionnaire. As universal ART access is expanding, it is increasingly important to ensure quality of HIV testing and confirmation of HIV diagnosis before ART initiation.