Modeling the Impact of Sexual Networks in the Transmission of Monkeypox virus Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men — United States, 2022

Incubation Period and Serial Interval of Mpox in 2022 Global Outbreak Compared with Historical Estimates

Understanding changes in the transmission dynamics of mpox requires comparing recent estimates of key epidemiologic parameters with historical data. We derived historical estimates for the incubation period and serial interval for mpox and contrasted them with pooled estimates from the 2022 outbreak. Our findings show the pooled mean infection-to-onset incubation period was 8.1 days for the 2022 outbreak and 8.2 days historically, indicating the incubation periods remained relatively consistent over time, despite a shift in the major mode of transmission. However, we estimated the onset-to-onset serial interval at 8.7 days using 2022 data, compared with 14.2 days using historical data. Although the reason for this shortening of the serial interval is unclear, it may be because of increased public health interventions or a shift in the mode of transmission. Recognizing such temporal shifts is essential for informed response strategies, and public health measures remain crucial for controlling mpox and similar future outbreaks.

"Mpox in MSM: Tackling Stigma, Minimizing Risk Factors, Exploring Pathogenesis, and Treatment Approaches"

Mpox is a zoonotic disease caused by the monkeypox virus (MPV), primarily found in Central and West African countries. The typical presentation of the disease before the 2022 mpox outbreak includes a febrile prodrome 5-13 days post-exposure, accompanied by lymphadenopathy, malaise, headache, and muscle aches. Unexpectedly, during the 2022 outbreak, several cases of atypical presentations of the disease were reported, such as the absence of prodromal symptoms and the presence of genital skin lesions suggestive of sexual transmission. As per the World Health Organization (WHO), as of March 20, 2024, 94,707 cases of mpox were reported worldwide, resulting in 181 deaths (22 in African endemic regions and 159 in non-endemic countries). The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports a total of 32,063 cases (33.85% of total cases globally), with 58 deaths (32.04% of global deaths) due to mpox. Person-to-person transmission of mpox can occur through respiratory droplets and sustained close contact. However, during the 2022 outbreak of mpox, a high incidence of anal and perianal lesions among MSMs indicated sexual transmission of MPV as a major route of transmission. Since MSMs are disproportionately at risk for HIV transmission, this review discusses the risk factors, transmission patterns, pathogenesis, vaccine, and treatment options for mpox among MSM and people living with HIV (PLWH). Furthermore, we provide a brief perspective on the evolution of the MPV in immunocompromised people like PLWH.

Health Belief Model to Assess Mpox Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices among Residents and Staff, Cook County Jail, Illinois, USA, July-August 2022

In summer 2022, a case of mpox was confirmed in a resident at the Cook County Jail (CCJ) in Chicago, Illinois, USA. We conducted in-depth interviews with CCJ residents and staff to assess mpox knowledge, attitudes, and practices; hygiene and cleaning practices; and risk behaviors. We characterized findings by using health belief model constructs. CCJ residents and staff perceived increased mpox susceptibility but were unsure about infection severity; they were motivated to protect themselves but reported limited mpox knowledge as a barrier and desired clear communication to inform preventive actions. Residents expressed low self-efficacy to protect themselves because of contextual factors, including perceived limited access to cleaning, disinfecting, and hygiene items. Our findings suggest correctional facilities can support disease prevention by providing actionable and tailored messages; educating residents and staff about risk and vaccination options; and ensuring access to and training for hygiene, cleaning, and disinfecting supplies.

How the Orthodox Features of Orthopoxviruses Led to an Unorthodox Mpox Outbreak: What We've Learned, and What We Still Need to Understand

Orthopoxviruses have repeatedly confounded expectations in terms of the clinical illness they cause and their patterns of spread. Monkeypox virus (MPXV), originally characterized in the late 1950s during outbreaks among captive primates, has been recognized since the 1970s to cause human disease (mpox) in West and Central Africa, where interhuman transmission has largely been associated with nonsexual, close physical contact. In May 2022, a focus of MPXV transmission was detected, spreading among international networks of gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men. The outbreak grew in both size and geographic scope, testing the strength of preparedness tools and public health science alike. In this article we consider what was known about mpox before the 2022 outbreak, what we learned about mpox during the outbreak, and what continued research is needed to ensure that the global public health community can detect, and halt further spread of this disease threat.

Characteristics of the Sexual Networks of Men Who Have Sex With Men in Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver: Insights from Canada's 2022 Mpox Outbreak

BACKGROUND

The 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak disproportionately affected gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBM). We investigated differences in GBM's sexual partner distributions across Canada's 3 largest cities and over time, and how they shaped transmission.

METHODS

The Engage Cohort Study (2017-2023) recruited GBM via respondent-driven sampling in Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver (n = 2449). We compared reported sexual partner distributions across cities and periods: before COVID-19 (2017-2019), pandemic (2020-2021), and after lifting of restrictions (2021-2023). We used Bayesian regression and poststratification to model partner distributions. We estimated mpox's basic reproduction number (R0) using a risk-stratified compartmental model.

RESULTS

Pre-COVID-19 pandemic distributions were comparable: fitted average partners (past 6 months) were 10.4 (95% credible interval: 9.4-11.5) in Montréal, 13.1 (11.3-15.1) in Toronto, and 10.7 (9.5-12.1) in Vancouver. Sexual activity decreased during the pandemic and increased after lifting of restrictions, but remained below prepandemic levels. Based on reported cases, we estimated R0 of 2.4 to 2.7 and similar cumulative incidences (0.7%-0.9%) across cities.

CONCLUSIONS

Similar sexual partner distributions may explain comparable R0 and cumulative incidence across cities. With potential for further recovery in sexual activity, mpox vaccination and surveillance strategies should be maintained.

Modelling the impact of vaccination and sexual behaviour adaptations on mpox cases in the USA during the 2022 outbreak

BACKGROUND

The 2022 mpox outbreak has infected over 30 000 people in the USA, with cases declining since mid-August. Infections were commonly associated with sexual contact between men. Interventions to mitigate the outbreak included vaccination and a reduction in sexual partnerships. Understanding the contributions of these interventions to decreasing cases can inform future public health efforts.

METHODS

We fit a dynamic network transmission model to mpox cases reported by Washington DC through 10 January 2023. This model incorporated both vaccine administration data and reported reductions in sexual partner acquisition by gay, bisexual or other men who have sex with men (MSM). The model output consisted of daily cases over time with or without vaccination and/or behavioural adaptation.

RESULTS

We found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptations. One year into the outbreak, vaccination and behavioural adaptation together prevented an estimated 84% (IQR 67% to 91%) of cases. Vaccination alone averted 79% (IQR 64% to 88%) of cases and behavioural adaptation alone averted 25% (IQR 10% to 42%) of cases. We further found that in the absence of vaccination, behavioural adaptation would have reduced the number of cases, but would have prolonged the outbreak.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that initial declines in cases were likely caused by behavioural adaptation, but vaccination averted more cases overall and was key to hastening outbreak conclusion. Overall, this indicates that outreach to encourage individuals to protect themselves from infection was vital in the early stages of the mpox outbreak, but that combination with a robust vaccination programme hastened outbreak conclusion.

Membrane computing simulation of sexually transmitted bacterial infections in hotspots of individuals with various risk behaviors

The epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) is complex due to the coexistence of various pathogens, the variety of transmission modes derived from sexual orientations and behaviors at different ages and genders, and sexual contact hotspots resulting in network transmission. There is also a growing proportion of recreational drug users engaged in high-risk sexual activities, as well as pharmacological self-protection routines fostering non-condom practices. The frequency of asymptomatic patients makes it difficult to develop a comprehensive approach to STI epidemiology. Modeling approaches are required to deal with such complexity. Membrane computing is a natural computing methodology for the virtual reproduction of epidemics under the influence of deterministic and stochastic events with an unprecedented level of granularity. The application of the LOIMOS program to STI epidemiology illustrates the possibility of using it to shape appropriate interventions. Under the conditions of our basic landscape, including sexual hotspots of individuals with various risk behaviors, an increase in condom use reduces STIs in a larger proportion of heterosexuals than in same-gender sexual contacts and is much more efficient for reducing Neisseria gonorrhoeae than Chlamydia and lymphogranuloma venereum infections. Amelioration from diagnostic STI screening could be instrumental in reducing N. gonorrhoeae infections, particularly in men having sex with men (MSM), and Chlamydia trachomatis infections in the heterosexual population; however, screening was less effective in decreasing lymphogranuloma venereum infections in MSM. The influence of STI epidemiology of sexual contacts between different age groups (<35 and ≥35 years) and in bisexual populations was also submitted for simulation.IMPORTANCEThe epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) is complex and significantly influences sexual and reproductive health worldwide. Gender, age, sexual orientation, sexual behavior (including recreational drug use and physical and pharmacological protection practices), the structure of sexual contact networks, and the limited application or efficiency of diagnostic screening procedures create variable landscapes in different countries. Modeling techniques are required to deal with such complexity. We propose the use of a simulation technology based on membrane computing, mimicking in silico STI epidemics under various local conditions with an unprecedented level of detail. This approach allows us to evaluate the relative weight of the various epidemic drivers in various populations at risk and the possible outcomes of interventions in particular epidemiological landscapes.

Characterizing Indicators of Engagement in HIV-Associated Healthcare and Clinical Outcomes among People with HIV and Mpox in Washington, DC: A Nested Case-Control Study of the DC Cohort

The high proportion of people with HIV (PWH) in the 2022-2023 mpox outbreak has raised questions surrounding the association between HIV and mpox. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the association between engagement in HIV-associated healthcare and mpox diagnosis, as well as to characterize cases of mpox among PWH. The DC Cohort is a longitudinal cohort of PWH in Washington, DC. We conducted a 5:1 (controls:cases) nested case-cohort study on male participants, matching age and care site. Cases were participants with an identified mpox diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression was used to assess the impact of indicators of engagement in HIV-associated healthcare on mpox diagnosis. We identified 70 cases of mpox in DC Cohort participants randomly matched to 323 controls, for a total of 393 participants included in the analysis. Study participants were primarily non-Hispanic Black (72.3%) with a median age of 41 (IQR: 36, 50). There was no association between engagement in care and mpox diagnosis; however, low CD4 was associated with increased odds of mpox diagnosis (aOR: 4.60 (95% CI: 1.23, 17.11)). Among a cohort of PWH, engagement in care was not associated with mpox diagnosis, suggesting that the overrepresentation of PWH among mpox cases is not due to surveillance bias.

Sexual and Gender Minorities' Vaccine Uptake and Behavioral Change in Response to the Mpox Outbreak in the United States: August 2022 Through November 2022

BACKGROUND

In the summer of 2022, the United States faced a nationwide outbreak of mpox, with cases concentrated in sexual and gender minorities who have sex with men. Understanding rates of mpox vaccine uptake and concomitant behavioral change is essential to guide the implementation of targeted public health responses to the potential reemergence of mpox.

METHODS

Between August 2022 and November 2022, 8551 individuals recruited via geosocial networking apps completed a brief survey that assessed mpox vaccine uptake, intentions to get a mpox vaccine, and behavioral change.

RESULTS

In August, 17.4% of participants reported having received at least 1 dose of the mpox vaccine. By November, this prevalence estimate was 35.0%. Black participants were significantly less likely to be vaccinated, and vaccine hesitancy increased among Black participants over time. Among those who had not yet received a vaccination, the intention to get vaccinated decreased over time. We observed trends that coincided with the evolving outbreak, such as decreased worry about mpox and less engagement in risk reduction behaviors over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a 2-fold increase in mpox vaccine uptake between August 2022 and November 2022 in sexual and gender minorities who have sex with men, disparities in vaccine uptake were observed among Black participants. Findings will guide the implementation of public health responses to the potential reemergence of mpox and other viral infectious diseases (eg, meningitis) with a specific focus on optimizing vaccine uptake in Black communities.

Brief Report: Determinants of Potential Sexual Activity Reduction in the Face of the Mpox Epidemic

BACKGROUND

The current mpox epidemic is most prevalent among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). Vaccination programs are being rolled-out to curb the epidemic. Behavioural measures have been called for as well, for example, by the WHO and national public health authorities to reduce the number of sexual partners and sexual activity. We investigated intentions and determinants among Dutch MSM to follow such behavioural measures.

METHODS

Early in July 2022, in the context of a dynamic ongoing epidemic, 394 MSM answered an online questionnaire investigating concepts such as perceived mpox risk, vaccination and behavioural change intentions and collecting socio-demographic and sexual behaviour information.

RESULTS

The overall intentions to reduce number of partners and sexual activity were high, but only a minority had developed definite intentions. Determinant analysis revealed that dating/open relationship status was a positive predictor; vaccination intentions did not predict sexual behaviour change; those not on PrEP were more likely to change their sexual behaviour. Mpox infection concern was the main predictor for behaviour change intentions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that behavioural measures to avoid an mpox infection are present in majority of participants in our survey, but high intentions are held by a minority. Taking the historic complexity of behavioural change pleas among MSM into account sensitive, additional public health measures are necessary to reach and to inform MSM about potential benefits of sexual behaviour change.

The 2022 monkeypox outbreak 1 year on: The 5 Ws

In May 2022, World Health Organization (WHO) reported an outbreak of Mpox in several European countries which were previously Mpox free. Mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) is a zoonotic viral disease endemic in Central and West Africa. The sudden emergence of Mpox outside Africa and its subsequent rapid spread lead the WHO to declare the outbreak as Public Health Emergency of International Concern. By 15 May 2023, a total of 87,704 confirmed cases and 140 deaths had been reported from 111 countries and territories worldwide. Looking back on this outbreak 1 year later, several important questions have arisen. Here, we address these questions using the classic 5 Ws: What, When, Where, Who and Why? We discuss these questions to understand how this outbreak emerged and how it was effectively managed. We outline what needs to be done to prevent, or at least minimise, outbreaks due to emerging and re-emerging viral infections.

Plausible reasons for the resurgence of Mpox (formerly Monkeypox): an overview

Poxviruses are large and diversified viruses that cause an emerging zoonotic disease known as monkeypox (mpox). In the past, mpox predominated primarily in the rural rainforests of Central and West Africa. Recently, the exportation of mpoxv from Africa to other continents has been progressively reported. However, the lack of travel history to Africa in most of the currently reported cases in 2022 promotes the sign of changing epidemiology of this disease. Concerns over the geographic distribution and continued resurgence of mpox is growing. In this review, we addressed the geographic distribution, transmission, reasons for the resurgence of mpox, and vaccination. Although the precise cause of the resurgence in mpox cases is mostly unknown, several suggested factors are believed to be waning immunity, accumulation of unvaccinated people, ecological conditions, risk behaviors of men who have sex with men, and genetic evolution.

Egocentric sexual network analysis among gay and bisexual men who have sex with men with and without mpox infection

OBJECTIVES

Recent outbreaks of the mpox (monkeypox) virus have been detected in dense sexual networks of gay and bisexual men who have sex with men (GBMSM). The objective of this study is to describe and compare the epidemiological and behavioural characteristics, as well as the sexual networks, of GBMSM diagnosed with mild mpox in Spain.

METHODS

A prospective case-control study was conducted in Spain from July 2022 to February 2023. The study targeted a key population of GBMSM aged 18 years or older. Study participants were categorised into cases, those who were diagnosed with mpox virus infection; and controls, those who were not diagnosed. We examined and compared the sexual network characteristics of the two groups-mpox-positive (mpox-P) and mpox-negative (mpox-N) egos-using χ2, t-test and Wilcoxon test to examine the differences between the two groups in each section. Finally, we conducted univariable and multivariable logistic regressions to determine the factors associated with mpox infection.

RESULTS

Among the 105 participants, 35 (33.3%) were mpox-P. Compared with mpox-N, mpox-P respondents more frequently reported syphilis (mpox-P: 31.4%; mpox-N: 12.9%) and HIV (mpox-P: 45.7%; mpox-N: 18.6%), and mpox-P individuals to have had at least one sexual contact with a confirmed mpox case (mpox-P: 62.5%; mpox-N: 8.3%). In the egocentric network analysis, mpox-P respondents had a higher prevalence of group sex with alters (mpox-P: 18.5%; mpox-N: 8.9%) and one-time sexual partners (mpox-P: 46.1%; mpox-N: 31.7%). Multivariable logistic regressions showed that reporting stranger/client ties (adjusted OR (aOR)=10.3, 95% CI 1.39 to 76.6) with alters, being vaccinated for mpox (aOR=0.07, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.24) and tie strength heterogeneity (aOR=0.01, 95% CI 0.00 to 0.42) were associated with mpox infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the role of demographic, epidemiological and sexual network characteristics in the transmission of mpox virus during the outbreak in Spain. These findings have important implications for future prevention efforts.

HIV and mpox: a rapid review

In this review, we discuss the history and epidemiology of mpox, prevention strategies, clinical characteristics and management, severity of mpox among persons with advanced HIV, and areas for future research relevant to persons with HIV.

Substance use and variation in sexual partnership rates among young MSM and young transgender women: Disaggregating between and within-person associations

BACKGROUND

Substance use has been extensively linked to sexual behavior and HIV/STI risk among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TW). However, the impact of specific substances and on specific partnership types is not well characterized. The current study seeks to estimate the association between specific substances and partnership rates while carefully disaggregating between and within-person associations to characterize the nature of these associations and inform prevention interventions.

METHODS

Using data from a longitudinal cohort (n = 1159) of young MSM (YMSM) and young TW (YTW), we utilized a series of hybrid mixed effect models to estimate the associations between substance use (i.e., heavy episodic drinking [HED], marijuana, cocaine, ecstasy, methamphetamine, poppers, prescription stimulant, prescription painkiller, and prescription depressants) and partnerships (i.e., one-time, casual, and main).

RESULTS

Results from multivariable models indicated people using substances had higher one-time (HED, poppers) and casual (HED, methamphetamine, poppers) partnership rates. In addition, participants reported higher rates of one-time (HED, ecstasy, methamphetamine, poppers) and casual partners (HED, marijuana, cocaine, methamphetamines, poppers) during periods of substance use.

CONCLUSION

These findings confirm that the highest rates of sexual activity occur among YMSM-YTW using substances during periods of substance use. Yet, these findings should caution researchers against simplistic generalizations as these associations differ across substance and partnership types. Efforts to promote the health of MSM-YTW who use substances should carefully consider this complexity as interventions accounting for the unique cultural context of substance use in these populations are most likely to be successful.

Retrospective evaluation of short-term forecast performance of ensemble sub-epidemic frameworks and other time-series models: The 2022-2023 mpox outbreak across multiple geographical scales, July 14th, 2022, through February 26th, 2023

In May 2022, public health officials noted an unprecedented surge in mpox cases in non-endemic countries worldwide. As the epidemic accelerated, multi-model forecasts of the epidemic's trajectory were critical in guiding the implementation of public health interventions and determining policy. As the case levels have significantly decreased as of early September 2022, evaluating model performance is essential to advance the growing field of epidemic forecasting. Using laboratory-confirmed mpox case data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Our World in Data (OWID) teams through the week of January 26th, 2023, we generated retrospective sequential weekly forecasts (e.g., 1-4-weeks) for Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, the USA, and at the global scale using models that require minimal input data including the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), general additive model (GAM), simple linear regression (SLR), Facebook's Prophet model, as well as the sub-epidemic wave (spatial-wave) and n -sub-epidemic modeling frameworks. We assess forecast performance using average mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), weighted interval score (WIS), 95% prediction interval coverage (95% PI coverage), and skill scores. Average Winkler scores were used to calculate skill scores for 95% PI coverage. Overall, the n -sub-epidemic modeling framework outcompeted other models across most locations and forecasting horizons, with the unweighted ensemble model performing best across all forecasting horizons for most locations regarding average MSE, MAE, WIS, and 95% PI coverage. However, many locations had multiple models performing equally well for the average 95% PI coverage. The n -sub-epidemic and spatial-wave frameworks improved considerably in average MSE, MAE, and WIS, and Winkler scores (95% PI coverage) relative to the ARIMA model. Findings lend further support to sub-epidemic frameworks for short-term forecasting epidemics of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases.

Did mpox knowledge, attitudes and beliefs affect intended behaviour in the general population and men who are gay, bisexual and who have sex with men? An online cross-sectional survey in the UK

OBJECTIVES

To investigate rates of mpox beliefs, knowledge and intended behaviours in the general population and in gay, bisexual or other men who have sex with men (GBMSM), and factors associated with intended behaviours. To test the impact of motivational messages (vs a factual control) on intended behaviours.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional online survey including a nested randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Data collected from 5 September 2022 to 6 October 2022.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were aged 18 years or over and lived in the UK (general population). In addition, GBMSM were male, and gay, bisexual or had sex with men. The general population sample was recruited through a market research company. GBMSM were recruited through a market research company, the dating app Grindr and targeted adverts on Meta (Facebook and Instagram).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Intention to self-isolate, seek medical help, stop all sexual contact, share details of recent sexual contacts and accept vaccination.

RESULTS

Sociodemographic characteristics differed by sample. There was no effect of very brief motivational messaging on behavioural intentions. Respondents from Grindr and Meta were more likely to intend to seek help immediately, completely stop sexual behaviour and be vaccinated or intend to be vaccinated, but being less likely to intend to self-isolate (ps<0.001). In the general population sample, intending to carry out protective behaviours was generally associated with being female, older, having less financial hardship, greater worry, higher perceived risk to others and higher perceived susceptibility to and severity of mpox (ps<0.001). There were fewer associations with behaviours in the Grindr sample, possibly due to reduced power.

CONCLUSIONS

GBMSM were more likely to intend to enact protective behaviours, except for self-isolation. This may reflect targeted public health efforts and engagement with this group. Associations with socioeconomic factors suggest that providing financial support may encourage people to engage with protective behaviours.

Clinical features and diagnostic challenges of mpox (monkeypox) outbreak in Malta: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In May of 2022, an mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) outbreak was reported from countries where the disease is not endemic, rising worldwide concern. Malta, the smallest European Union member state, faced unique challenges, with high infection rates compared to the rest of Europe. The aim of the study is to describe the clinical characteristics, diagnostic challenges, and unique demographics of mpox patients diagnosed in Malta.

METHODS

This is a retrospective analysis of medical records of all mpox cases recorded from May to September 2022. Demographic data, sexual behaviors and practices, travel history, comorbidities, and HIV status were investigated.

RESULTS

In the study period, we recorded 33 mpox cases, 97% of them were male, in the age group 30-39 (39%). Ninety percent were gay or bisexual men and 76% non-Maltese. The most common clinical presentations included skin rash (78%), lymphadenopathy (71%), anogenital lesions (67%), and fever (67%). Twenty-seven percent of the patients were people living with HIV. In terms of coinfection with STIs, 27% of patients tested positive for gonorrhea, 12% for syphilis, 15% for chlamydia, 9% for herpes simplex virus, and 3% for hepatitis C virus.

CONCLUSION

The results shed light on unique challenges faced by the local sexual health clinic and call for more resources in response to the global emerging of infectious diseases.

Mpox knowledge, vaccination and intention to reduce sexual risk practices among men who have sex with men and transgender people in response to the 2022 mpox outbreak: a cross-sectional study in Victoria, Australia

BACKGROUND

The first mpox case was reported in May 2022 in Australia. Most cases have been diagnosed in men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aimed to examine community understanding of mpox, attitudes towards vaccination, and potential changes in sexual practices surrounding the mpox outbreak among MSM and transgender people in Victoria, Australia.

METHODS

Participants were recruited from sexual health clinics and communities in Victoria, Australia, in August-October 2022. Participants were asked about their understanding and knowledge of mpox, vaccination uptake and intentions to change sexual practices. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was performed to examine the factors associated with mpox vaccine uptake.

RESULTS

Most participants (97.8%, 525/537) had heard about mpox and 10.5% (55/525) knew someone who had had mpox. Of the 12 mpox knowledge questions, the median score of correct answers was 10 (IQR=8-11) out of a maximum of 12. More than a third (36.6%, 191/522) had been vaccinated against mpox. MSM who had a good knowledge of mpox had the highest odds of receiving mpox vaccine compared with those who had poor knowledge (aOR=4.05; 95% CI: 1.54-10.61). To prevent mpox, half reported they would reduce having sex with casual partners, stop having chemsex (used drugs for the purpose of sex), stop attending sex-on-premises-venues, and stop having group sex. A quarter reported they would increase condom use for anal sex.

CONCLUSIONS

One-third of high-risk participants and a substantial proportion of participants intended to reduce or stop certain practices, which may explain the large reduction in mpox cases.

Ecological study: MSM sex worker advertising amidst Monkeypox in three U.S. cities

The 2022 monkeypox (MPX) outbreak was a source of consternation and stress among men who have sex with men (MSM)-the population disproportionately affected by the recent MPX outbreak. Individuals at high-risk for MPX (e.g., MSM, sex workers) were prioritized for vaccination during early state and city health department vaccine initiatives across the U.S., but little is known about how the MSM sex work market was affected by the MPX outbreak in U.S. cities where MPX incidence was particularly high. To better characterize the potential relationship between MPX incidence and MSM sex worker advertising at the height of the U.S. MPX outbreak, we monitored advertising volume on an Internet advertising platform popular among MSM sex workers and compared these data to city and county health department MPX case reporting data during a 13-week period (July 2nd, 2022- September 24th, 2022) in three U.S. cities with peak MPX incidence: Chicago, New York City, and San Francisco. In each of these cities, we observed a decline in advertising during or immediately following study week(s) with the highest number of weekly MPX cases during the study period, recognizing that observed decreases in advertising could be attributed to transient increase(s) in advertising during large-scale LGBT festivals occurring during the study period.

Mapping global zoonotic niche and interregional transmission risk of monkeypox: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Outbreaks of monkeypox have been ongoing in non-endemic countries since May 2022. A thorough assessment of its global zoonotic niche and potential transmission risk is lacking.

METHODS

We established an integrated database on global monkeypox virus (MPXV) occurrence during 1958 - 2022. Phylogenetic analysis was performed to examine the evolution of MPXV and effective reproductive number (Rt) was estimated over time to examine the dynamic of MPXV transmissibility. The potential ecological drivers of zoonotic transmission and inter-regional transmission risks of MPXV were examined.

RESULTS

As of 24 July 2022, a total of 49 432 human patients with MPXV infections have been reported in 78 countries. Based on 525 whole genome sequences, two main clades of MPXV were formed, of which Congo Basin clade has a higher transmissibility than West African clade before the 2022-monkeypox, estimated by the overall Rt (0.81 vs. 0.56), and the latter significantly increased in the recent decade. Rt of 2022-monkeypox varied from 1.14 to 4.24 among the 15 continuously epidemic countries outside Africa, with the top three as Peru (4.24, 95% CI: 2.89-6.71), Brazil (3.45, 95% CI: 1.62-7.00) and the United States (2.44, 95% CI: 1.62-3.60). The zoonotic niche of MPXV was associated with the distributions of Graphiurus lorraineus and Graphiurus crassicaudatus, the richness of Rodentia, and four ecoclimatic indicators. Besides endemic areas in Africa, more areas of South America, the Caribbean States, and Southeast and South Asia are ecologically suitable for the occurrence of MPXV once the virus has invaded. Most of Western Europe has a high-imported risk of monkeypox from Western Africa, whereas France and the United Kingdom have a potential imported risk of Congo Basin clade MPXV from Central Africa. Eleven of the top 15 countries with a high risk of MPXV importation from the main countries of 2022-monkeypox outbreaks are located at Europe with the highest risk in Italy, Ireland and Poland.

CONCLUSIONS

The suitable ecological niche for MPXV is not limited to Africa, and the transmissibility of MPXV was significantly increased during the 2022-monkeypox outbreaks. The imported risk is higher in Europe, both from endemic areas and currently epidemic countries. Future surveillance and targeted intervention programs are needed in its high-risk areas informed by updated prediction.

Clinical Features, Antiviral Treatment, and Patient Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Comparative Analysis of the Previous and the 2022 Mpox Outbreaks

BACKGROUND

This study aims to comparatively analyze clinical features, treatment, and patient outcomes between the previous and the 2022 mpox (monkeypox) outbreaks.

METHODS

Five bibliographic databases were searched for studies reporting clinical features, management, and patient outcomes of mpox. Systematic review and meta-analysis were performed.

RESULTS

In total, 73 studies were included in the systematic review, of which 33 studies were subjected to meta-analysis. Previous outbreaks substantially affected children, whereas the 2022 outbreak primarily affected male adults, of which 94.66% (95% confidence interval [CI], 88.03-98.95) were men who have sex with men. Furthermore, 72.47% (95% CI, 51.04-89.71) reported high-risk sexual activity and the overall human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence was 37.65% (95% CI, 30.09-45.50). Skin lesions remain the typical symptom; however, their anatomic distribution differed. Systemic manifestations were common, but rectal pain was unique to the 2022 outbreak. The estimated overall fatality during past outbreaks in Africa was 4.61% (95% CI, 2.39%-7.35%), whereas 6.34% (95% CI, 3.35%-10.10%) of patients from the 2022 outbreak required hospitalization. Antiviral treatment, in particular tecovirimat, has been prescribed for a subset of patients, but the efficacy remains inconclusive.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings are important for better understanding the disease and guiding adequate response to mpox outbreaks.

A Comprehensive Review on Monkeypox Viral Disease with Potential Diagnostics and Therapeutic Options

The purpose of this review is to give an up-to-date, thorough, and timely overview of monkeypox (Mpox), a severe infectious viral disease. Furthermore, this review provides an up-to-date treatment option for Mpox. The monkeypox virus (MPXV) has remained the most virulent poxvirus for humans since the elimination of smallpox approximately 41 years ago, with distribution mainly in central and west Africa. Mpox in humans is a zoonotically transferred disease that results in symptoms like those of smallpox. It had spread throughout west and central Africa when it was first diagnosed in the Republic of Congo in 1970. Mpox has become a major threat to global health security, necessitating a quick response by virologists, veterinarians, public health professionals, doctors, and researchers to create high-efficiency diagnostic tests, vaccinations, antivirals, and other infection control techniques. The emergence of epidemics outside of Africa emphasizes the disease's global significance. A better understanding of Mpox's dynamic epidemiology may be attained by increased surveillance and identification of cases.

Potential for Recurrent Mpox Outbreaks Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex with Men - United States, 2023

More than 30,000 monkeypox (mpox) cases have been diagnosed in the United States since May 2022, primarily among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) (1,2). In recent months, diagnoses have declined to one case per day on average. However, mpox vaccination coverage varies regionally, suggesting variable potential risk for mpox outbreak recurrence (3). CDC simulated dynamic network models representing sexual behavior among MSM to estimate the risk for and potential size of recurrent mpox outbreaks at the jurisdiction level for 2023 and to evaluate the benefits of vaccination for preparedness against mpox reintroduction. The risk for outbreak recurrence after mpox reintroduction is linearly (inversely) related to the proportion of MSM who have some form of protective immunity: the higher the population prevalence of immunity (from vaccination or natural infection), the lower the likelihood of recurrence in that jurisdiction across all immunity levels modeled. In contrast, the size of a potential recurrent outbreak might have thresholds: very small recurrences are predicted for jurisdictions with mpox immunity of 50%-100%; exponentially increasing sizes of recurrences are predicted for jurisdictions with 25%-50% immunity; and linearly increasing sizes of recurrences are predicted for jurisdictions with <25% immunity. Among the 50 jurisdictions examined, 15 are predicted to be at minimal risk for recurrence because of their high levels of population immunity. This analysis underscores the ongoing need for accessible and sustained mpox vaccination to decrease the risk for and potential size of future mpox recurrences.

Effectiveness of JYNNEOS Vaccine Against Diagnosed Mpox Infection - New York, 2022

In 2022, an international Monkeypox virus outbreak, characterized by transmission primarily through sexual contact among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM), resulted in 375 monkeypox (mpox) cases in the state of New York outside of New York City (NYC).*^,† The JYNNEOS vaccine (Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine, Bavarian Nordic), licensed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) against mpox as a 2-dose series, with doses administered 4 weeks apart,^§ was deployed in a national vaccination campaign.^¶ Before this outbreak, evidence to support vaccine effectiveness (VE) against mpox was based on human immunologic and animal challenge studies (1-3). New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) conducted a case-control study to estimate JYNNEOS VE against diagnosed mpox in New York residents outside of NYC, using data from systematic surveillance reporting. A case-patient was defined as a man aged ≥18 years who received a diagnosis of mpox during July 24-October 31, 2022. Contemporaneous control patients were men aged ≥18 years with diagnosed rectal gonorrhea or primary syphilis and a history of male-to-male sexual contact, without mpox. Case-patients and control patients were matched to records in state immunization systems. JYNNEOS VE was estimated as 1 - odds ratio (OR) x 100, and JYNNEOS vaccination status (vaccinated versus unvaccinated) at the time of diagnosis was compared, using conditional logistic regression models that adjusted for week of diagnosis, region, patient age, and patient race and ethnicity. Among 252 eligible mpox case-patients and 255 control patients, the adjusted VE of 1 dose (received ≥14 days earlier) or 2 doses combined was 75.7% (95% CI = 48.5%-88.5%); the VE for 1 dose was 68.1% (95% CI = 24.9%-86.5%) and for 2 doses was 88.5% (95% CI = 44.1%-97.6%). These findings support recommended 2-dose JYNNEOS vaccination consistent with CDC and NYSDOH guidance.

Tecovirimat Treatment of People With HIV During the 2022 Mpox Outbreak : A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The recent mpox outbreak has disproportionately affected people with HIV (PWH) and resulted in the first widespread use of the novel antiviral tecovirimat. Whether treatment outcomes differ between PWH and those without HIV is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the clinical presentation and treatment outcomes of PWH and HIV-negative persons with mpox virus (MPXV) infection treated with tecovirimat.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of patients treated with tecovirimat for confirmed MPXV infection from June to August 2022.

SETTING

Two academic medical centers in New York City.

PARTICIPANTS

The study included 196 persons treated with tecovirimat from 20 June to 29 August 2022. Of 154 testing positive for MPXV, 72 were PWH and 4 had a CD4 count lower than 0.20 × 109 cells/L.

MEASUREMENTS

Patient demographic characteristics, clinical presentation, treatment outcomes, and safety data for tecovirimat.

RESULTS

Indications for tecovirimat treatment were similar between the PWH and HIV-negative groups. Four participants had serious adverse events; none were attributed to tecovirimat. Three of these 4 participants had HIV infection, and 2 had CD4 counts less than 0.20 × 109 cells/L. Twenty-two percent of participants had nonsevere adverse effects. Groups had similar rates of hospitalization, indications for treatment, and co-occurring infections, but PWH had fewer days from symptom onset to treatment (7.5 vs. 10). There was no difference in treatment outcomes, including days to improvement or rate of persistent symptoms.

LIMITATION

Patients with mpox who were not treated with tecovirimat were not followed routinely and therefore lacked comparable outcome data, limiting evaluation of efficacy.

CONCLUSION

In our cohort of patients treated with tecovirimat for severe mpox, HIV status did not seem to affect treatment outcomes.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

A cross-sectional survey of public knowledge of the monkeypox disease in Nigeria

The Monkeypox Disease (MPXD) gained attention due to its widened geographical distribution outside of Africa, Hence, a it was declared a global health emergency. The index case in Europe was from a Nigerian traveller. This study assessed public awareness and knowledge of the MPXD by conducting an online, cross-sectional survey of educated Nigerians. A total of 822 respondents were recruited using the snowball sampling method between the 16th to 29th of August 2022. More responses were retrieved from the Northeastern geopolitical region (30.1%, n=220) than other regions. Descriptive statistics revealed that 89% (n=731/822) of the study participants were aware of the MPXD but only 58.7% (n=429/731) of them had good knowledge of the disease with a mean knowledge score of 5.31±2.09. The main knowledge gaps were in the incubation period of the disease, the signs and symptoms, its mode of transmission, and preventive practices needed to curb the spread of the monkeypox virus (MPXV). Specifically, only 24.5% (n=179) of them knew that MPXV can be transmitted via sexual contact. Most of the study participants (79.2%, n=651) opined that we can prevent the occurrence of public health emergencies in the future. The multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that of the socio-demographic variables, the male gender (OR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.22,2.33); Ph.D. level education (1.44; 95% CI: 1.048,4.23); and being homosexual (OR:1.65; 95% CI: 1.07,3.78) were significantly associated with good knowledge of MPXD. Despite the varying prevalence across the country, the region of residence within Nigeria did not influence the knowledge of MPXD among the respondents. The knowledge gaps necessitate intensified public health risk communication with a focus on modes of transmission and the preventive measures needed to curb the spread of the MPXV.

Successful Outcome after Treatment with Cidofovir, Vaccinia, and Extended Course of Tecovirimat in a Newly-Diagnosed HIV Patient with Severe Mpox: A Case Report

Purpose: To report a case of severe mpox in a newly diagnosed HIV patient concerning for Immune Reconstitution Inflammatory Syndrome (IRIS) and/or tecovirimat resistance and to describe the management approach in the setting of refractory disease. Case: 49-year-old man presented with 2 weeks of perianal lesions. He tested positive for mpox PCR in the emergency room and was discharged home with quarantine instructions. Three weeks later, the patient returned with disseminated firm, nodular lesions in the face, neck, scalp, mouth, chest, back, legs, arms, and rectum, with worsening pain and purulent drainage from the rectum. The patient reported being on 3 days of tecovirimat treatment, which was prescribed by the Florida department of health (DOH). During this admission, he was found to be HIV positive. A pelvic CT scan revealed a 2.5 cm perirectal abscess. Treatment with tecovirimat was continued for 14 days, along with an empiric course of antibiotics for treatment of possible superimposed bacterial infection upon discharge. He was seen in the outpatient clinic and initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) with TAF/emtricitabine/bictegravir. Two weeks after starting ART, the patient was readmitted for worsening mpox rash and rectal pain. Urine PCR also returned positive for chlamydia, for which the patient was prescribed doxycycline. He was discharged on a second course of tecovirimat and antibiotic therapy. Ten days later, the patient was readmitted for the second time due to worsening symptoms and blockage of the nasal airway from progressing lesions. At this point, there were concerns for tecovirimat resistance, and after discussion with CDC, tecovirimat was reinitiated for the third time, with the addition of Cidofovir and Vaccinia, and showed an improvement in his symptoms. He received three doses of cidofovir and two doses of Vaccinia, and the patient was then discharged to complete 30 days of tecovirimat. Outpatient follow-up showed favorable outcomes and near resolution. Conclusion: We reported a challenging case of worsening mpox after Tecovirimat treatment in the setting of new HIV and ART initiation concerning IRIS vs. Tecovirimat resistance. Clinicians should consider the risk of IRIS and weigh the pros and cons of initiating or delaying ART. In patients not responding to first-line treatment with tecovirimat, resistance testing should be performed, and alternative options should be considered. Future research is needed to establish guidance on the role of Cidofovir and Vaccinia immune globulin and the continuation of tecovirimat for refractory mpox.

An Ulcer by Any Other Name

The myriad presentations of ulcerative sexually transmitted infections, other than genital herpes and syphilis, challenge even the most astute clinician given the considerable overlap in clinical presentation and lack of widely available diagnostic resources, such as nucleic acid testing, to confirm the diagnosis. Even so, case prevalence is relatively low, and incidence of chancroid and granuloma inguinale are declining. These diseases still cause substantial morbidity and increased chance for HIV acquisition, and with the recent advent of mpox as a cause, it remains imperative to identify and treat accurately.

[Translated article] Mpox - Formerly Monkey Pox - in Dermatology: A Review of Epidemiologic Features, Clinical Presentation, Diagnosis, and Treatment

Mpox is an emerging zoonotic disease that has spread rapidly around the world. It has been declared a public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization. This review is an update for dermatologists on the epidemiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis, and treatment of Mpox. The primary mode of transmission in the current outbreak is close physical contact during sexual activity. Although most of the initial cases were reported in men who have sex with men, anyone who has close contact with an infected person or contaminated fomites is at risk. Classic prodromal features of Mpox include subclinical manifestations and a mild rash. Complications are common but rarely require hospitalization. Polymerase chain reaction analysis of mucocutaneous lesions is the test of choice for a definitive diagnosis. In the absence of specific treatments, management focuses on symptomatic relief.

Mpox - Formerly Monkey Pox - in Dermatology: A Review of Epidemiologic Features, Clinical Presentation, Diagnosis, and Treatment

Mpox is an emerging zoonotic disease that has spread rapidly around the world. It has been declared a public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization. This review is an update for dermatologists on the epidemiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis, and treatment of Mpox. The primary mode of transmission in the current outbreak is close physical contact during sexual activity. Although most of the initial cases were reported in men who have sex with men, anyone who has close contact with an infected person or contaminated fomites is at risk. Classic prodromal features of Mpox include subclinical manifestations and a mild rash. Complications are common but rarely require hospitalization. Polymerase chain reaction analysis of mucocutaneous lesions is the test of choice for a definitive diagnosis. In the absence of specific treatments, management focuses on symptomatic relief.

Real-time forecasting the trajectory of monkeypox outbreaks at the national and global levels, July-October 2022

BACKGROUND

Beginning May 7, 2022, multiple nations reported an unprecedented surge in monkeypox cases. Unlike past outbreaks, differences in affected populations, transmission mode, and clinical characteristics have been noted. With the existing uncertainties of the outbreak, real-time short-term forecasting can guide and evaluate the effectiveness of public health measures.

METHODS

We obtained publicly available data on confirmed weekly cases of monkeypox at the global level and for seven countries (with the highest burden of disease at the time this study was initiated) from the Our World in Data (OWID) GitHub repository and CDC website. We generated short-term forecasts of new cases of monkeypox across the study areas using an ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework based on weekly cases using 10-week calibration periods. We report and assess the weekly forecasts with quantified uncertainty from the top-ranked, second-ranked, and ensemble sub-epidemic models. Overall, we conducted 324 weekly sequential 4-week ahead forecasts across the models from the week of July 28th, 2022, to the week of October 13th, 2022.

RESULTS

The last 10 of 12 forecasting periods (starting the week of August 11th, 2022) show either a plateauing or declining trend of monkeypox cases for all models and areas of study. According to our latest 4-week ahead forecast from the top-ranked model, a total of 6232 (95% PI 487.8, 12,468.0) cases could be added globally from the week of 10/20/2022 to the week of 11/10/2022. At the country level, the top-ranked model predicts that the USA will report the highest cumulative number of new cases for the 4-week forecasts (median based on OWID data: 1806 (95% PI 0.0, 5544.5)). The top-ranked and weighted ensemble models outperformed all other models in short-term forecasts.

CONCLUSIONS

Our top-ranked model consistently predicted a decreasing trend in monkeypox cases on the global and country-specific scale during the last ten sequential forecasting periods. Our findings reflect the potential impact of increased immunity, and behavioral modification among high-risk populations.

A hybrid forecasting technique for infection and death from the mpox virus

Objectives

The rising of new cases and death counts from the mpox virus (MPV) is alarming. In order to mitigate the impact of the MPV it is essential to have information of the virus's future position using more precise time series and stochastic models. In this present study, a hybrid forecasting system has been developed for new cases and death counts for MPV infection using the world daily cumulative confirmed and death series.

Methods

The original cumulative series was decomposed into new two subseries, such as a trend component and a stochastic series using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. To assess the efficacy of the proposed models, a comparative analysis with several widely recognized benchmark models, including auto-regressive (AR) model, auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model, non-parametric auto-regressive (NPAR) model and artificial neural network (ANN), was performed.

Results

The introduction of two novel hybrid models, HPF 1 1 and HPF 3 4 , which demonstrated superior performance compared to all other models, as evidenced by their remarkable results in key performance indicators such as root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), is a significant advancement in disease prediction.

Conclusion

The new models developed can be implemented in forecasting other diseases in the future. To address the current situation effectively, governments and stakeholders must implement significant changes to ensure strict adherence to standard operating procedures (SOPs) by the public. Given the anticipated continuation of increasing trends in the coming days, these measures are essential for mitigating the impact of the outbreak.

Monkeypox: epidemiology, pathogenesis, treatment and prevention

Monkeypox is a zoonotic disease that was once endemic in west and central Africa caused by monkeypox virus. However, cases recently have been confirmed in many nonendemic countries outside of Africa. WHO declared the ongoing monkeypox outbreak to be a public health emergency of international concern on July 23, 2022, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The rapidly increasing number of confirmed cases could pose a threat to the international community. Here, we review the epidemiology of monkeypox, monkeypox virus reservoirs, novel transmission patterns, mutations and mechanisms of viral infection, clinical characteristics, laboratory diagnosis and treatment measures. In addition, strategies for the prevention, such as vaccination of smallpox vaccine, is also included. Current epidemiological data indicate that high frequency of human-to-human transmission could lead to further outbreaks, especially among men who have sex with men. The development of antiviral drugs and vaccines against monkeypox virus is urgently needed, despite some therapeutic effects of currently used drugs in the clinic. We provide useful information to improve the understanding of monkeypox virus and give guidance for the government and relative agency to prevent and control the further spread of monkeypox virus.

Sexual behaviors, cannabis, alcohol and monkeypox infection

The emergence of the monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak in 2022 is a worldwide health issue. The rapid increase of monkeypox cases caused the WHO to designate the escalating global monkeypox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on July 23, 2022. The WHO has called on the group currently most affected by the virus, men who have sex with men (MSM), to limit their sexual partners. The diminution in number of sexual partners not only decreases the proportion of infected MSM but could also increases the number of days needed to reach a given infection level among the general population. Several behavioral factors could be associated with high levels of different sexual partners, such as cannabis use and alcohol consumption. Firstly, this review focuses on the association between cannabis and alcohol consumption and the number of sexual partners, and their possible impact on the current MPXV outbreak by impairing the immune responses. Secondly, this review investigated in the UK Biobank cohort the relationship between alcohol and cannabis use and the number of sexual partners. Among the 115,604 participants, 1.8% declared to be MSM, 1.9% to be WSW (women having sex with women), 43.3% men heterosexuals and 53.0% women heterosexuals. MSM and WSW showed higher lifetime sexual partners (N = 17.4 (SD:17.52) and N = 13.65 (SD: 13.21), respectively) compared to heterosexual men (N = 6.89 (SD: 9.47) and women (N = 5.19 (SD:6.56), p < 0.001. After adjustment for age, body mass index, lifetime sexual activity, educational and income levels, tobacco and cardiovascular diseases, cannabis use and alcohol consumption remained significantly associated with increase in the number of different sexual partners in all four subgroups. Thus, cannabis use and alcohol consumption may have two detrimental effects on the MPXV outbreak: by participating in the increase of the number of sexual partners which are mainly responsible for the augmentation of the number of new MPXV infected cases and by impairing the immune response to a viral infection. Health and safety policies should address the factors and practices, including chemsex, leading to an increase in risk of sexual behaviors responsible for MPXV dissemination in the worldwide population.