Accelerated warming and emergent trends in fisheries biomass yields of the world's large marine ecosystems

The global spread of jellyfish hazards mirrors the pace of human imprint in the marine environment

The rising demand of ecosystem services, due to the increasing human population in coastal areas, and the subsequent need to secure healthy and sustainable seas constitute a major challenge for marine ecosystems management. In addition, global anthropogenic changes have transformed the marine realm, thereby challenging ecosystem health and the services necessary for human welfare. These changes have opened ecological space for opportunistic organisms, such as jellyfish, resulting in ecosystem-wide and economic implications that threaten marine ecosystem services. Here, we used a comprehensive dataset of jellyfish hazards over the period 1960-2019 to track their dynamics and implications for human welfare. Our results revealed that their large-scale patterns have been mainly enhanced in human-perturbed Large Marine Ecosystems, although the contribution of jellyfish Class to hazard type changed across ocean regions. The long-term variability of these events suggests that their temporal patterns mirror the pace of ocean warming and ocean health degradation nurtured by global anthropogenic changes in recent decades. These results warn of the wide socioecological risks of jellyfish hazards, and their implications advocate for transboundary, regional cooperation to develop effective ecosystem-based management actions. Failure to integrate jellyfish into ocean surveys will compromise coastal ecosystem services governance. Classification: Social Sciences/Sustainability Science, Biological Sciences/Ecology.

The sensory impacts of climate change: bathymetric shifts and visually mediated interactions in aquatic species

Visual perception is, in part, a function of the ambient illumination spectrum. In aquatic environments, illumination depends upon the water's optical properties and depth, both of which can change due to anthropogenic impacts: turbidity is increasing in many aquatic habitats, and many species have shifted deeper in response to warming surface waters (known as bathymetric shifts). Although increasing turbidity and bathymetric shifts can result in similarly large changes to a species' optical environment, no studies have yet examined the impact of the latter on visually mediated interactions. Here, we examine a potential link between climate change and visual perception, with a focus on colour. We discuss (i) what is known about bathymetric shifts; (ii) how the impacts of bathymetric shifts on visual interactions may be distributed across species; (iii) which interactions might be affected; and (iv) the ways that animals have to respond to these changes. As warming continues and temperature fluctuations grow more extreme, many species may move into even deeper waters. There is thus a need for studies that examine how such shifts can affect an organism's visual world, interfere with behaviour, and impact fitness, population dynamics, and community structure.

Assessing spatio-temporal changes in marine communities along the Portuguese continental shelf and upper slope based on 25 years of bottom trawl surveys

The Portuguese continental coast is influenced by several oceanographic processes and is located near the confluence of three biogeographic realms (from the North Atlantic, South Atlantic and Mediterranean). Given these features, the topography of the Portuguese coast, possible variations in fishing effort and reported increasing sea surface temperature in the last decades, we hypothesized that changes in marine communities in space and time occurred since 1990. In this study, research survey data collected yearly along the Portuguese continental slope (20-500 m deep) from 1990 to 2016 were analysed with the objective of identifying spatio-temporal changes. Latitude and depth were found to play a major role in communities' spatial differentiation, probably associated to temperature, and three ecological areas were defined (north, southwest and south). In the studied period, Macroramphosus spp. abundance showed a marked decrease in all areas whereas Sparids increased in abundance in the south. Despite these major changes and fluctuations in species abundance over time no major trends in communities were observed. Fishing activity, environmental conditions (including climate change) and biotic factors are all drivers possibly responsible for those changes.

Life histories determine divergent population trends for fishes under climate warming

Most marine fish species express life-history changes across temperature gradients, such as faster growth, earlier maturation, and higher mortality at higher temperature. However, such climate-driven effects on life histories and population dynamics remain unassessed for most fishes. For 332 Indo-Pacific fishes, we show positive effects of temperature on body growth (but with decreasing asymptotic length), reproductive rates (including earlier age-at-maturation), and natural mortality for all species, with the effect strength varying among habitat-related species groups. Reef and demersal fishes are more sensitive to temperature changes than pelagic and bathydemersal fishes. Using a life table, we show that the combined changes of life histories upon increasing temperature tend to facilitate population growth for slow life-history populations, but reduce it for fast life-history ones. Within our data, lower proportions (25-30%) of slow life-history fishes but greater proportions of fast life-history fishes (42-60%) show declined population growth rates under 1 °C warming. Together, these findings suggest prioritizing sustainable management for fast life-history species.

A global mismatch in the protection of multiple marine biodiversity components and ecosystem services

The global loss of biodiversity threatens unique biota and the functioning and services of ecosystems essential for human wellbeing. To safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services, designating protected areas is crucial; yet the extent to which the existing placement of protection is aligned to meet these conservation priorities is questionable, especially in the oceans. Here we investigate and compare global patterns of multiple biodiversity components (taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional), ecosystem services and human impacts, with the coverage of marine protected areas across a nested spatial scale. We demonstrate a pronounced spatial mismatch between the existing degree of protection and all the conservation priorities above, highlighting that neither the world’s most diverse, nor the most productive ecosystems are currently the most protected ecosystems. Furthermore, we show that global patterns of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human impacts are poorly correlated, hence complicating the identification of generally applicable spatial prioritization schemes. However, a hypothetical “consensus approach” would have been able to address all these conservation priorities far more effectively than the existing degree of protection, which at best is only marginally better than a random expectation. Therefore, a holistic perspective is needed when designating an appropriate degree of protection of marine conservation priorities worldwide.

Thirty-Three Years of Ocean Benthic Warming Along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope: Patterns, Drivers, and Ecological Consequences

The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade^-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century¹. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade^-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade^-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.

Climate mediates hypoxic stress on fish diversity and nursery function at the land-sea interface

Coastal ecosystems provide numerous important ecological services, including maintenance of biodiversity and nursery grounds for many fish species of ecological and economic importance. However, human population growth has led to increased pollution, ocean warming, hypoxia, and habitat alteration that threaten ecosystem services. In this study, we used long-term datasets of fish abundance, water quality, and climatic factors to assess the threat of hypoxia and the regulating effects of climate on fish diversity and nursery conditions in Elkhorn Slough, a highly eutrophic estuary in central California (United States), which also serves as a biodiversity hot spot and critical nursery grounds for offshore fisheries in a broader region. We found that hypoxic conditions had strong negative effects on extent of suitable fish habitat, fish species richness, and abundance of the two most common flatfish species, English sole (Parophrys vetulus) and speckled sanddab (Citharichthys stigmaeus). The estuary serves as an important nursery ground for English sole, making this species vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. We determined that estuarine hypoxia was associated with significant declines in English sole nursery habitat, with cascading effects on recruitment to the offshore adult population and fishery, indicating that human land use activities can indirectly affect offshore fisheries. Estuarine hypoxic conditions varied spatially and temporally and were alleviated by strengthening of El Niño conditions through indirect pathways, a consistent result in most estuaries across the northeast Pacific. These results demonstrate that changes to coastal land use and climate can fundamentally alter the diversity and functioning of coastal nurseries and their adjacent ocean ecosystems.

Climate change and the oceans--what does the future hold?

The ocean has been shielding the earth from the worst effects of rapid climate change by absorbing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This absorption of CO2 is driving the ocean along the pH gradient towards more acidic conditions. At the same time ocean warming is having pronounced impacts on the composition, structure and functions of marine ecosystems. Warming, freshening (in some areas) and associated stratification are driving a trend in ocean deoxygenation, which is being enhanced in parts of the coastal zone by upwelling of hypoxic deep water. The combined impact of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are already having a dramatic effect on the flora and fauna of the oceans with significant changes in distribution of populations, and decline of sensitive species. In many cases, the impacts of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are increased by the effects of other human impacts, such as pollution, eutrophication and overfishing. The interactive effects of this deadly trio mirrors similar events in the Earth's past, which were often coupled with extinctions of major species' groups. Here we review the observed impacts and, using past episodes in the Earth's history, set out what the future may hold if carbon emissions and climate change are not significantly reduced with more or less immediate effect.

Climate Change and Genetic Structure of Leading Edge and Rear End Populations in a Northwards Shifting Marine Fish Species, the Corkwing Wrasse (Symphodus melops)

One mechanism by which marine organisms may respond to climate shifts is range shifts. The corkwing wrasse (Symphodus melops) is a temperate fish species, inhabiting the coasts of Europe, that show strong indications of current as well as historical (ice-age) range shifts towards the north. Nine neutral microsatellite DNA markers were screened to study genetic signatures and spatial population structure over the entire geographic and thermal gradient of the species from Portugal to Norway. A major genetic break (F ST  = 0.159 average among pairs) was identified between Scandinavian and more southern populations, with a marked reduction (30% or more) in levels of genetic variability in Scandinavia. The break is probably related to bottleneck(s) associated with post-glacial colonization of the Scandinavian coasts, and indicates a lack of present gene flow across the North Sea. The lack of gene flow can most likely be attributed to the species' need for rocky substrate for nesting and a relatively short pelagic larval phase, limiting dispersal by ocean currents. These findings demonstrate that long-distance dispersal may be severely limited in the corkwing wrasse, and that successful range-shifts following present climate change may be problematic for this and other species with limited dispersal abilities, even in the seemingly continuous marine environment.

Biology of the Greenland shark Somniosus microcephalus

Greenland shark Somniosus microcephalus is a potentially important yet poorly studied cold-water species inhabiting the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Broad-scale changes in the Arctic ecosystem as a consequence of climate change have led to increased attention on trophic dynamics and the role of potential apex predators such as S. microcephalus in the structure of Arctic marine food webs. Although Nordic and Inuit populations have caught S. microcephalus for centuries, the species is of limited commercial interest among modern industrial fisheries. Here, the limited historical information available on S. microcephalus occurrence and ecology is reviewed and new catch, biological and life-history information from the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean region is provided. Given the considerable by-catch rates in high North Atlantic Ocean latitudes it is suggested that S. microcephalus is an abundant predator that plays an important, yet unrecognized, role in Arctic marine ecosystems. Slow growth and large pup sizes, however, may make S. microcephalus vulnerable to increased fishing pressure in a warming Arctic environment.

Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming

Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.

Pathways between primary production and fisheries yields of large marine ecosystems

The shift in marine resource management from a compartmentalized approach of dealing with resources on a species basis to an approach based on management of spatially defined ecosystems requires an accurate accounting of energy flow. The flow of energy from primary production through the food web will ultimately limit upper trophic-level fishery yields. In this work, we examine the relationship between yield and several metrics including net primary production, chlorophyll concentration, particle-export ratio, and the ratio of secondary to primary production. We also evaluate the relationship between yield and two additional rate measures that describe the export of energy from the pelagic food web, particle export flux and mesozooplankton productivity. We found primary production is a poor predictor of global fishery yields for a sample of 52 large marine ecosystems. However, chlorophyll concentration, particle-export ratio, and the ratio of secondary to primary production were positively associated with yields. The latter two measures provide greater mechanistic insight into factors controlling fishery production than chlorophyll concentration alone. Particle export flux and mesozooplankton productivity were also significantly related to yield on a global basis. Collectively, our analyses suggest that factors related to the export of energy from pelagic food webs are critical to defining patterns of fishery yields. Such trophic patterns are associated with temperature and latitude and hence greater yields are associated with colder, high latitude ecosystems.

Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change

Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt--to plan and implement effective responses to change--a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.