Stroke recurrence in the different subtypes of ischemic stroke. The importance of the intracranial disease

Incidence of recurrent ischemic stroke and its associated factors in a tertiary care center in Thailand: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Ischemic stroke (IS) is one of the leading causes of death among non-communicable diseases in Thailand. Patients who have survived an IS are at an increased risk of developing recurrent IS, which can result in worse outcomes and post-stroke complications.

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to investigate the incidence of recurrent IS among patients with first-ever IS during a one-year follow-up period and to determine its associated risk factors.

METHODS

Adult patients (aged ≥ 18 years) who were hospitalized at the Stroke Center, King Chulalongkorn Memorial Hospital (KCMH) in Bangkok, Thailand, due to first-ever IS between January and December 2019 and had at least one follow-up visit during the one-year follow-up period were included in this retrospective cohort study. IS diagnosis was confirmed by neurologists and imaging. The log-rank test was used to determine the event-free survival probabilities of recurrent IS in each risk factor.

RESULTS

Of 418 patients hospitalized due to first-ever IS in 2019, 366 (87.6%) were included in the analysis. During a total of 327.2 person-years of follow-up, 25 (6.8%) patients developed recurrent IS, accounting for an incidence rate of 7.7 per 100 person-year (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.2-11.3). The median (interquartile range) time of recurrence was 35 (16-73) days. None of the 47 patients with atrial fibrillation developed recurrent IS. The highest incidence rate of recurrent IS occurred within 1 month after the first episode (34 per 100 person-years) compared to other follow-up periods. Patients with small vessel occlusion and large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) constituted the majority of patients in the recurrent IS episode (48% and 40%, respectively), with LAA exhibiting a higher recurrence rate (13.5%). Additionally, smoking status was found to be associated with an increased risk of recurrence.

CONCLUSION

The incidence rate of the recurrence was moderate in our tertiary care setting, with a decreasing trend over time after the first episode. The various subtypes of IS and smoking status can lead to differences in event-free survival probabilities.

Efficacy and Safety of Tirofiban Before Stenting for Symptomatic Intracranial Atherosclerotic Stenosis: A Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Acute stent thrombosis (AST) is not uncommon and even catastrophic during intracranial stenting angioplasty in patients with symptomatic high-grade intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS). The purpose of this study was to investigate whether adjuvant intravenous tirofiban before stenting could reduce the risk of AST and periprocedural ischemic stroke in patients receiving stent angioplasty for symptomatic ICAS.

METHODS

A prospective, multicenter, open-label, randomized clinical trial was conducted from September 9, 2020, to February 18, 2022, at 10 medical centers in China. Patients intended to receive stent angioplasty for symptomatic high-grade ICAS were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive intravenous tirofiban or not before stenting in a 1:1 ratio. The primary outcomes included the incidence of AST within 30 minutes after stenting, periprocedural new-onset ischemic stroke, and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage. The outcomes were analyzed using logistic regression analysis to obtain an odds ratio and 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

A total of 200 participants (122 men [61.0%]; median [interquartile ranges] age, 57 [52-66] years) were included in the analysis, with 100 participants randomly assigned to the tirofiban group and 100 participants to the control (no tirofiban) group. The AST incidence was lower in the tirofiban group than that in the control group (4.0% vs 14.0%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.25; 95% CI 0.08-0.82; p = 0.02). No significant difference was observed in the incidence of periprocedural ischemic stroke (7.0% vs 8.0%; p = 0.98) or symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage between the 2 groups.

DISCUSSION

This study suggests that adjuvant intravenous tirofiban before stenting could lower the risk of AST during stent angioplasty in patients with symptomatic high-grade ICAS.

TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION

URL: chictr.org.cn; Unique identifier: ChiCTR2000031935.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides Class II evidence that for patients with symptomatic high-grade ICAS, pretreatment with tirofiban decreases the incidence of acute stent thrombosis. This study is Class II due to the unequal distribution of involved arteries between the 2 groups.

Epidemiology, Pathophysiology, and Imaging of Atherosclerotic Intracranial Disease

Intracranial atherosclerotic disease (ICAD) is one of the most common causes of stroke worldwide. Among people with stroke, those of East Asia descent and non-White populations in the United States have a higher burden of ICAD-related stroke compared with Whites of European descent. Disparities in the prevalence of asymptomatic ICAD are less marked than with symptomatic ICAD. In addition to stroke, ICAD increases the risk of dementia and cognitive decline, magnifying ICAD societal burden. The risk of stroke recurrence among patients with ICAD-related stroke is the highest among those with confirmed stroke and stenosis ≥70%. In fact, the 1-year recurrent stroke rate of >20% among those with stenosis >70% is one of the highest rates among common causes of stroke. The mechanisms by which ICAD causes stroke include plaque rupture with in situ thrombosis and occlusion or artery-to-artery embolization, hemodynamic injury, and branch occlusive disease. The risk of stroke recurrence varies by the presumed underlying mechanism of stroke, but whether techniques such as quantitative magnetic resonance angiography, computed tomographic angiography, magnetic resonance perfusion, or transcranial Doppler can help with risk stratification beyond the degree of stenosis is less clear. The diagnosis of ICAD is heavily reliant on lumen-based studies, such as computed tomographic angiography, magnetic resonance angiography, or digital subtraction angiography, but newer technologies, such as high-resolution vessel wall magnetic resonance imaging, can help distinguish ICAD from stenosing arteriopathies.

Edge-Type Hyperintense Intracranial Artery Plaque: A Potential MRI Biomarker of Stroke Recurrence

BACKGROUND

Identifying patients at high risk of stroke recurrence is important for stroke prevention and treatment.

PURPOSE

To explore the characteristics of T1 hyperintense plaques (HIP) and their relationship with stroke recurrence in patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (sICAS).

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

POPULATION

One hundred fifty-seven patients with moderate-to-severe (≥50%) nonocclusive sICAS and MRI studies (42 females and 115 males, mean age 58.69 ± 10.68 years).

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

3D higher-resolution black-blood T1-weighted fast-spin-echo sequence at 3.0 T.

ASSESSMENT

HIP (signal intensity [SI] of plaque-to-adjacent gray matter >1.0 on non-contrast T1-weighted images) and non-HIP plaques were identified. HIP plaques were categorized as edge type (high SI adjacent to lumen) and non-edge type (high SI within plaque). Clinical and imaging features of different plaque types were compared. Stroke recurrence was assessed through telephone or medical records at 3 and 6 months, and then once a year post-MRI. The relationship between edge type and non-edge types HIP with stroke recurrence was analyzed.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Student's t test, Mann-Whitney U-test, chi square test and Fisher's exact test to compare features between plaque types. Kaplan-Meier curves (with log-rank tests) and Cox proportional hazards regression to assess relationship between stroke recurrence and different plaque types. A two-tailed P-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Of 157 culprit lesions, 87 (55%) were HIPs (43 edge type, 44 non-edge type) and 70 (45%) were non-HIPs. Plaque thickness, area, and volume were significantly higher for HIPs than for non-HIPs. Among patients with HIPs, edge type was significantly more likely in the posterior circulation (53.5% vs. 27.3%), and had significantly higher plaque thickness, length, area, volume, plaque burden, and remodeling index than non-edge type. Edge-type HIP was significantly more common than non-edge HIP in patients with diabetes mellitus (51.2% vs. 29.5%) and dyslipidemia (79.1% vs. 54.5%). During median follow-up of 27 months, 33 patients experienced stroke recurrence. Recurrence was associated with edge-type HIP (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.83; 95% confidence interval: 1.40-5.69), both in the overall cohort (34.9% vs. 15.8%) and in patients with HIP (34.9% vs. 9.0%). Age ≥60 years and edge-type HIP had a significant interaction.

DATA CONCLUSIONS

Hyperintense plaque may be categorized as edge type or non-edge type. Edge-type HIP may be a potential MRI biomarker of stroke recurrence.

EVIDENCE LEVEL

3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Association between vertebrobasilar artery geometry and vertebrobasilar stenosis, recurrence, and death in posterior circulation stroke and transient ischemic attack

BACKGROUND

Intracranial atherosclerosis is one of the primary causes of posterior circulation stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA), particularly in people of South and East Asian heritage. Focal vessel geometry may play a role in atherosclerosis progression. Thus, we investigated the relevance of vertebrobasilar artery (VBA) geometry and vertebrobasilar atherosclerotic stenosis, recurrence, and death in posterior circulation stroke and TIA.

METHODS

Four hundred and twenty patients with posterior circulation ischemic stroke or TIA were included. The VBA geometric features, comprising the geometric configurations (Tuning fork, Walking, Lambda, and No confluence), vascular bends (multi-bending and oligo-bending), and VBA stenosis degrees, were defined based on computed tomography angiography (CTA) images. Recurrence of stroke or TIA and death were assessed through a 1-year follow-up. Additionally, the relationship between VBA geometric features, VBA stenosis, and prognosis were analyzed.

RESULTS

Walking type and vascular multi-bending showed significant associations with more severe VBA stenosis and distribution, and these were also more frequently observed in patients with large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) stroke (all P < 0.05). Sixty-four patients exhibited recurrent stroke or TIA, and 31 died during the 1-year follow-up. In the binary logistic regression analysis, Walking type (P = 0.018), Lambda type (P = 0.021), and multi-bending type (P = 0.004) were found to be independently associated with stroke recurrence, while No confluence type was independently associated with death (P = 0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

The geometric characteristics of the VBA are associated with vertebrobasilar stenosis, LAA stroke, 1-year recurrence, and death in posterior circulation stroke and TIA. VBA geometry may be used to stratify the risk of stroke and TIA in the posterior circulation.

The 2023 Taiwan Stroke Society Guidelines for the management of patients with intracranial atherosclerotic disease

Intracranial atherosclerotic disease (ICAD) is a major cause of ischemic stroke, especially in Asian populations, which has a high risk of recurrent stroke and cardiovascular comorbidities. The present guidelines aim to provide updated evidence-based recommendations for diagnosis and management of patients with ICAD. Taiwan Stroke Society guideline consensus group developed recommendations for management of patients with ICAD via consensus meetings based on updated evidences. Each proposed class of recommendation and level of evidence was approved by all members of the group. The guidelines cover six topics, including (1) epidemiology and diagnostic evaluation of ICAD, (2) nonpharmacological management of ICAD, (3) medical therapy for symptomatic ICAD, (4) endovascular thrombectomy and rescue therapy for acute ischemic stroke with underlying ICAD, (5) endovascular interventional therapy for postacute symptomatic intracranial arterial stenosis, and (6) surgical treatment of chronic symptomatic intracranial arterial stenosis. Intensive medical treatment including antiplatelet therapy, risk factor control, and life style modification are essential for patients with ICAD.

The fibrinogen-to-albumin ratio is associated with intracranial atherosclerosis plaque enhancement on contrast-enhanced high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging

Background

Contrast-enhanced high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (CE-HR-MRI) is a useful imaging modality to assess vulnerable plaques in intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS) patients. We studied the relationship between the fibrinogen-to-albumin ratio (FAR) and plaque enhancement in patients with ICAS.

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled consecutive ICAS patients who had undergone CE-HR-MRI. The degree of plaque enhancement on CE-HR-MRI was evaluated both qualitatively and quantitatively. Enrolled patients were classified into no enhancement, mild enhancement, and obvious enhancement groups. An independent association of the FAR with plaque enhancement was identified by multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses.

Results

Of the 69 enrolled patients, 40 (58%) were classified into the no/mild enhancement group, and 29 (42%) into the obvious enhancement group. The obvious enhancement group had a significantly higher FAR than the no/mild enhancement group (7.36 vs. 6.05, p = 0.001). After adjusting for potential confounders, the FAR was still significantly independently associated with obvious plaque enhancement in multiple regression analysis (odds ratio: 1.399, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.080-1.813; p = 0.011). ROC curve analysis revealed that FAR >6.37 predicted obvious plaque enhancement with 75.86% sensitivity and 67.50% specificity (area under the ROC curve = 0.726, 95% CI: 0.606-0.827, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The FAR can serve as an independent predictor of the degree of plaque enhancement on CE-HR-MRI in patients with ICAS. Also, as an inflammatory marker, the FAR has potential as a serological biomarker of intracranial atherosclerotic plaque vulnerability.

Risk factors for multiple recurrent ischemic strokes

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and atrial fibrillation are the most common modifiable risk factors for recurrent ischemic stroke. In this study, we aimed to find the risk factors associated with more than two recurrent ischemic strokes after the first-ever stroke.

METHODS

We collected the ischemic stroke patients in our stroke registry data bank, and the eligible patients were followed for recurrent ischemic stroke after 2008. Our study consisted of 927 patients who were followed up for 9 years after the first-ever stroke.

RESULTS

We found that 185 (20%) patients had a recurrent ischemic stroke, and another 32 (3.5%) patients had more than one recurrence after the first-ever ischemic stroke. The mean time for the first stroke recurrence was 1 year, and the mean time for the multiple stroke recurrences was 3 years. Significant risk factors for multiple recurrences were congestive heart disease (P < 0.015) and diabetes mellitus (P < 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

We concluded that even with the appropriate treatments, patients with congestive heart disease and diabetes mellitus have a higher rate of multiple recurrences for ischemic stroke after the first-ever ischemic stroke, indicating that more attention should be paid to this issue.

Clopidogrel with Aspirin versus Aspirin Alone following Intravenous Thrombolysis in Minor Stroke: A 1-Year Follow-Up Study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to investigate the long-term effect of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) using clopidogrel plus aspirin versus aspirin monotherapy after intravenous thrombolysis on functional outcomes in patients with minor stroke.

METHODS

Patients with acute ischemic stroke with a National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ≤ 5 who received either DAPT or aspirin monotherapy following recombinant tissue plasminogen activator intravenous thrombolysis were studied. Data recorded between January 2017 and December 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. The primary efficacy outcome was functional improvement at 1 year, measured by a 1-point decrease across modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores. Secondary outcomes included complete rehabilitation (mRS = 0), an excellent outcome (mRS = 0-1), and a favorable outcome (mRS = 0-2) at 1 year, as well as the rates of stroke recurrence and all-cause mortality within 1 year.

RESULTS

A total of 238 patients were included, and follow-up data were available for 205 patients (86.1%). The distribution of 1-year outcomes on the mRS favored DAPT over aspirin monotherapy (adjusted common odds ratio (OR), 2.19; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.12-4.28; p = 0.022). Patients who received DAPT, compared with those receiving aspirin alone, were more likely to achieve complete rehabilitation (adjusted OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.21-4.95; p = 0.013) at the 1-year follow-up. Additionally, the percentages of an excellent outcome and a favorable outcome did not differ, and the rates of stroke recurrence and all-cause mortality were comparable during the 1-year follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Clopidogrel with aspirin following intravenous thrombolysis was associated with improved functional outcome at the 1-year follow-up for patients with minor stroke, and it did not increase the stroke recurrence rate and mortality.

Development and validation of comprehensive clinical outcome prediction models for acute ischaemic stroke in anterior circulation based on machine learning

The current prediction models for the clinical outcome of acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) remain insufficient for individualized patient management strategies. We aimed to investigate machine learning (ML) performance in the clinical outcome prediction of AIS in anterior circulation and evaluate the clinical outcome by combining the quantitative evaluation indicators of perfusion features and basic clinical information. Four ML classifiers, support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB), logistic regression (LR), and random forest (RF) were trained on a cohort of 389 adult patients (training cohort [70 %]; external validation cohort [30 %]) from the Acute Stroke Center Registry of Huashan Hospital. Model performance was compared by a range of learning metrics. Most imaging parameters were strongly correlated with the outcome (range, 0.57 to 0.81), and the correlation between relative cerebral blood flow (rCBF) < 30 % and clinical outcome was the strongest (ρ = 0.81). As the reference parameters increased, the performance of the four models was greatly improved [SVM (AUC: from 0.79 to 0.99, F1-score: from 0.61 to 0.90), RF (AUC: from 0.88 to 0.98, F1-score: from 0.71 to 0.96), LR (AUC: from 0.80 to 0.97, F1-score: from 0.64 to 0.95), and NB (AUC: from 0.74 to 0.97, F1-score: from 0.66 to 0.92)]. The ensemble classifier model with all parameters had the highest F1-score (0.97). All the ML models, jointly considering the basic clinical information and quantitative evaluation indicators of computed tomography perfusion (CTP), showed good performance in the prediction of clinical outcome of AIS in anterior circulation.

A nomogram for predicting the in-hospital risk of recurrence among patients with minor non-cardiac stroke

BACKGROUND

Patients with minor stroke suffer a substantial risk of further recurrences, especially in the first two weeks. We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict in-hospital stroke recurrence among patients with acute minor stroke.

METHODS

A total of 1326 patients with minor non-cardiac stroke (NIHSS) ≤5) from three centers were divided into development cohort (1016 patients from two centers) and validation cohort (310 patients from another center). Recurrent stroke was defined as a new ischemic stroke. A logistic regression model was employed to develop the nomogram to predict in-hospital stroke recurrence in patients with minor stroke using demographic, medical and imaging information. We then validated the nomogram externally. The predictive discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were assessed in the development and validation cohorts by area under the curve (AUC) and calibration plots.

RESULTS

During a median length of stay of 12 days, stroke recurrence occurred in 34 patients (3.3%). Predictors of in-hospital recurrence included prior history of transient ischemic attack, baseline NIHSS score, multiple infarctions, and carotid stenosis. The clinical and imaging-based nomogram B demonstrated adequate calibration and discrimination (AUC = 0.777), which was validated among 273 patients in a separate validation cohort (AUC = 0.753). Our clinical-imaging based nomogram was determined to be superior to the clinical-based nomogram and the RRE90 score in terms of discrimination.

CONCLUSION

A prognostic nomogram that integrates clinical and imaging information to predict the in-hospital risk of stroke recurrence among patients after acute minor stroke was constructed and validated externally. The nomogram demonstrated adequate calibration and discrimination in both the development and validation cohort.

Triglyceride-glucose index and stroke recurrence in elderly patients with ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This study aimed to explore the association between triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and stroke recurrence in elderly patients with ischemic stroke in China.

METHODS

We enrolled ischemic stroke patients aged ≥ 65 years from the Nanjing Stroke Registry Program. The primary endpoint was defined as recurrent stroke within one year after the index stroke. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models to investigate the association between TyG index and stroke recurrence. We assessed the discriminative ability of TyG index with the receiver operative characteristic and the area under the curve.

RESULTS

A total of 955 patients (median age, 70.0 [67.0, 75.0]; male sex, 67.2%) from the Nanjing Stroke Registry Program were enrolled. During one year follow-up, 97 (10.2%) elderly patients experienced stroke recurrence. In multivariable analyses, the association between TyG index and stroke recurrence remained significant after adjusting for confounders (quartile 4 versus quartile 1; hazard ratio, 2.073, 95% confidence interval, 1.158-3.711; P = 0.014). The restricted cubic spline showed an increasing trend for TyG index and stroke recurrence (P for non-linearity = 0.072). The area under the curve to predict stroke recurrence with TyG index was 0.719 (95% confidence interval, 0.666-0.772). Besides, TyG index slightly improved the prediction for stroke recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Elevated TyG index was associated with stroke recurrence in elderly patients with ischemic stroke. Further studies are warranted to assess the role of TyG index in the development of stroke recurrence in the elderly.

Interpretability analysis of one-year mortality prediction for stroke patients based on deep neural network

Clinically, physicians collect the benchmark medical data to establish archives for a stroke patient and then add the follow up data regularly. It has great significance on prognosis prediction for stroke patients. In this paper, we present an interpretable deep learning model to predict the one-year mortality risk on stroke. We design sub-modules to reconstruct features from original clinical data that highlight the dissimilarity and temporality of different variables. The model consists of Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), in which a novel correlation attention module is proposed that takes the correlation of variables into consideration. In experiments, datasets are collected clinically from the department of neurology in a local AAA hospital. It consists of 2,275 stroke patients hospitalized in the department of neurology from 2014 to 2016. Our model achieves a precision of 0.9414, a recall of 0.9502 and an F1-score of 0.9415. In addition, we provide the analysis of the interpretability by visualizations with reference to clinical professional guidelines.

Recurrent Ischemic Stroke - A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

Recurrent stroke remains a challenge though secondary prevention is initiated immediately post-stroke. Stroke subtype may determine the risk of recurrent stroke and require specific preventive measures. We aimed to identify subtype-specific stroke recurrence and associated risk factors over time.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A systematic review was performed using PubMed and Embase for studies including adults >18 years, first-ever ischemic stroke in population-based observational studies or registries, documented TOAST-criteria and minimum 1-year follow-up. Meta-analysis on stroke recurrence rate was performed. Final search: November 2019.

RESULTS

The search retrieved 26 studies (between 1997 and 2019). Stroke recurrence rate ranged from 5.7% to 51.3%. Recurrent stroke was most frequent in large artery atherosclerosis (LAA) and cardioembolic (CE) stroke with recurrent stroke similar to index stroke subtype. We identified a lower recurrence rate for small vessel occlusion (SVO) stroke with recurrence frequently of another stroke subtype. Based on a meta-analysis the summary proportion recurrence rate of recurrent stroke in studies using TOAST-criteria = 0.12 and = 0.14 in studies using TOAST-like criteria. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation previous transient ischemic attack, and high stroke severity were independent risk factors for recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Stroke recurrence rates seem unchanged over time despite the use of secondary prevention. The highest recurrence rate is in LAA and CE stroke eliciting same subtype recurrent stroke. A lower recurrence rate is seen with SVO stroke with a more diverse recurrence pattern. Extensive workup is important in all stroke subtypes - including SVO stroke. Future research needs to identify better preventive treatment and improve compliance to risk factor prevention to reduce stroke recurrence.

Outcomes of Ischemic Stroke and Associated Factors Among Elderly Patients With Large-Artery Atherosclerosis: A Hospital-Based Follow-Up Study in China

Large-artery atherosclerotic (LAA) stroke is the most common subtype of ischemic stroke. However, risk factors for long-term outcomes of LAA stroke in the elderly Chinese population have not been well-described. Therefore, we aimed to assess outcomes and risk factors at 3, 12, and 36 months after LAA stroke onset among stroke patients aged 60 years and older. All consecutive LAA patients aged ≥ 60 years were prospectively recruited from Dongying People's Hospital between January 2016 and December 2018. The clinical features and outcome data at 3, 12, and 36 months after stroke were collected. Differences in outcomes and relationship between outcomes and risk factors were assessed. A total of 1,772 patients were included in our study (61.7% male, 38.3% female). The rates of mortality, recurrence, and dependency were 6.6, 12.6, and 12.6%, respectively, at 3 months after stroke onset. The corresponding rate rose rapidly at 36 months (23.2, 78.7, and 79.7%, respectively). We found the positive predictors associated outcomes at 3, 12, and 36 months after stroke onset. The relative risk (RR) with 95% confidential interval (CI) is 1.06 (1.02–1.10, P = 0.006) at 3 months, 1.06 (1.02–1.10, P = 0.003) at12 months, and 1.10 (1.05–1.15, P < 0.001) at 36 months after stroke onset for age; 1.09 (1.01–1.19, P = 0.029) at 12 months for fasting plasma glucose (FPG) level; 4.25 (2.14–8.43, P < 0.001) at 3 months, 4.95 (2.70–9.10, P < 0.001) at 12 months, and 4.82 (2.25–10.32, P < 0.001) at 36 months for moderate stroke; 7.56 (3.42–16.72, P < 0.001) at 3 months, 11.08 (5.26–23.34, P < 0.001) at 12 months, and 14.30 (4.85–42.11, P < 0.001) at 36 months for severe stroke, compared to mild stroke. Hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) level was an independent risk factor for mortality at different follow-up times, with the RR (95%) of 1.02 (1.01–1.02, P < 0.001) at 3 months, 1.01 (1.00–1.02, P = 0.002) at 12 months. White blood cell count (WBC) level was associated with both stroke recurrence (RR = 1.09, 95%CI: 1.01–1.18, P = 0.023) and dependency (RR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.02–1.19, P = 0.018) at 3 months. In contrast, a higher level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) within the normal range was a protective factor for recurrence and dependency at shorter follow-up times, with the RR (95%) of 0.67 (0.51–0.89, P = 0.005) and 0.67 (0.50–0.88, P = 0.005), respectively. These findings suggest that it is necessary to control the risk factors of LAA to reduce the burden of LAA stroke. Especially, this study provides a new challenge to explore the possibility of lowering LDL-C level for improved stroke prognosis.

Cumulative risk of stroke recurrence over the last 10 years: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Stroke is still the main cause of death and disability worldwide, numerous studies of recurrence risk have been reported, while systematic estimates of stroke recurrence risk in the last 10 years are variable. This review aims to estimate the cumulative stroke recurrence risk in the last 10 years for secondary prevention management in future.

METHODS

A systematic search from January 2009 to March 2019 was conducted through PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Wan-fang, and CNKI. Search terms were in English and Chinese.

RESULTS

A total of 37 studies involving 1,075,014 stroke patients were included. The pooled stroke recurrence rate was 7.7% at 3 months, 9.5% at 6 months, 10.4% at 1 year, 16.1% at 2 years, 16.7% at 3 years, 14.8% at 5 years, 12.9% at 10 years, and 39.7% at 12 years after the initial stroke. In addition, the pooled recurrence rate of 32 studies including stroke patients over 50 years only at seven time points except for subgroup of 10 years was 7.7%, 9.5%, 11.2%, 16.1%, 19.3%, 18.1%, and 39.7%, respectively. Meta-regression showed that the time points explained 23.02% of the variance among studies, while regions, age, and stroke types showed no significant contribution to heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of stroke recurrence varies greatly from 3 months to over 10 years and increases significantly over time in both young and old subgroup. The heterogeneity may be explained by follow-up time, regions, age, methodology differences, and stroke types, which was needed further exploration in future.

Twenty-Year Time Trends in Long-Term Case-Fatality and Recurrence Rates After Ischemic Stroke Stratified by Etiology

Background and Purpose:

Data on long-term survival and recurrence after stroke are lacking. We investigated time trends in ischemic stroke case-fatality and recurrence rates over 20-years stratified by etiological subtype according to the Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment classification within a population-based stroke register in Germany.

Methods:

Data was collected within the Erlangen Stroke Project, a prospective, population-based stroke register covering a source population of 105 164 inhabitants (2010). Case fatality and recurrence rates for 3 months, 1 year, and 5 years were estimated with Kaplan-Meier estimates. Sex-specific time trends for case-fatality and recurrence rates were estimated with Cox regression. We adjusted for age, sex, and year of event and stratified for etiological subtypes. A sensitivity analysis with competing risk analysis for time trends in recurrence were performed.

Results:

Between 1996 and 2015, 3346 patients with first ischemic stroke were included; age-standardized incidence per 100 000 was 75.8 in women and 131.6 in men (2015). Overall, 5-year survival probabilities were 50.4% (95% CI, 47.9–53.1) in women and 59.2% (95% CI, 56.4–62.0) in men; 5-year survival was highest in patients with first stroke due to small-artery occlusion (women, 71.8% [95% CI, 67.1–76.9]; men, 75.9% [95% CI, 71.3–80.9]) and lowest in cardioembolic stroke (women, 35.7% [95% CI, 31.0–41.1]; men, 47.8% [95% CI, 42.2–54.3]). Five-year recurrence rates were 20.1% (95% CI, 17.5–22.6) in women and 20.1% (95% CI, 17.5–22.7) in men; 5-year recurrence rate was lowest in women in stroke due to small artery occlusion 16.0% (95% CI, 11.7–20.1) and in men in large-artery atherosclerosis 16.6% (95% CI, 8.7–23.9); highest risk of recurrence was observed in undefined strokes (women, 22.3% [95% CI, 17.8–26.6]; men, 21.4% [95% CI, 16.7–25.9]). Cox regression revealed improvements in case-fatality rates over time with differences in stroke causes. No time trends in recurrence rates were observed.

Conclusions:

Long-term survival and recurrence varied substantially by first stroke cause. Survival probabilities improved over the past 2 decades; no major trends in stroke recurrence rates were observed.

Serum alpha-1 antitrypsin in acute ischemic stroke: A prospective pilot study

BACKGROUND

Alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT) is a potent anti-protease enzyme which may play a role in arterial wall stability. A variant of its encoding gene has been recently linked to ischemic stroke due to large artery atherosclerosis (LAA). We sought to explore potential relationships between ischemic stroke mechanisms, atherosclerosis burden and serum AAT levels.

METHODS

We performed a prospective observational study of consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke who were admitted to an academic comprehensive stroke center over a three-month period. Blood samples were collected within 24 h of hospital admission, and stroke subtype classification was determined based on modified TOAST criteria. Modified Woodcock scoring system was used to quantify calcification of major cervico-cranial arteries as a surrogate for atherosclerosis burden. Linear regression analysis was used to assess the association between serum AAT levels and calcification scores, both as continuous variables.

RESULTS

Among eighteen patients met our inclusion criteria and were enrolled in our study, 10 patients (56%) were men; mean age was 66 (SD 12.5); median NIH stroke scale was 4 (IQR 9.5); 8 patients (44%) had stroke due to LAA. The median serum level of AAT was 140 mg/dl (IQR 41.7) for patients with LAA-related stroke, and 148.5 mg/dl (IQR 37.7) for patients with other stroke mechanisms (p = 0.26). Higher serum AAT levels was associated with lower modified Woodcock calcification scores. (p-value = 0.038) CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of AAT levels in patients with acute stroke is feasible, and there may be associations between AAT levels and stroke mechanism that warrant further study in larger samples.