Radiation and Risk of Liver, Biliary Tract, and Pancreatic Cancers among Atomic Bomb Survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki: 1958-2009

Radiophobia Harm, Its Main Cause, and a Proposed Solution

Background: We are exposed to natural ionizing radiation and other genomic stressors throughout life and radiophobia has caused much harm to society. The main basis for radiophobia is the invalid linear no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis for cancer induction, which the System of Radiological Protection (SRP) is linked to. Largely unknown to the public, evolution-associated genomic stress adaptation (gensadaptation) over many previous generations now provides protection to all lifeforms from low radiation doses. Objective: To help bring about an improved SRP not linked to the invalid LNT hypothesis for radiation-caused health detriment and to promote low-dose radiation therapy for different diseases. Methods: All-solid-cancer mortality risk dose-response relationships for A-bomb survivors were generated based on published LNT-modeling-related results. Dose-response relationships for lung cancer prevention by low-dose radiation were generated by linear interpolation based on published data from a study using > 15,000 mice. Uncertainty characterization was based on Monte Carlo calculations for binomial and Poisson distributions. New dose characterization tools were used for threshold dose-response relationships for radiation-caused cancer mortality. Results: The all-solid-cancer mortality risk for A-bomb survivors transitioned from LNT to threshold-linear when adjusted for key missing uncertainty at low doses. The prevention of lung cancer in mice by low radiation doses depends on the radiation absorbed dose and type. Conclusions: The SRP should be linked to population dose thresholds rather than the invalid LNT hypothesis and small likely harmless radiation doses could possibly be used in treating different diseases.

Establishment and activity of the planning and acting network for low dose radiation research in Japan (PLANET): 2016-2023

The Planning and Acting Network for Low Dose Radiation Research in Japan (PLANET) was established in 2017 in response to the need for an all-Japan network of experts. It serves as an academic platform to propose strategies and facilitate collaboration to improve quantitative estimation of health risks from ionizing radiation at low-doses and low-dose-rates. PLANET established Working Group 1 (Dose-Rate Effects in Animal Experiments) to consolidate findings from animal experiments on dose-rate effects in carcinogenesis. Considering international trends in this field as well as the situation in Japan, PLANET updated its priority research areas for Japanese low-dose radiation research in 2023 to include (i) characterization of low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation risk, (ii) factors to be considered for individualization of radiation risk, (iii) biological mechanisms of low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation effects and (iv) integration of epidemiology and biology. In this context, PLANET established Working Group 2 (Dose and Dose-Rate Mapping for Radiation Risk Studies) to identify the range of doses and dose rates at which observable effects on different endpoints have been reported; Working Group 3 (Species- and Organ-Specific Dose-Rate Effects) to consider the relevance of stem cell dynamics in radiation carcinogenesis of different species and organs; and Working Group 4 (Research Mapping for Radiation-Related Carcinogenesis) to sort out relevant studies, including those on non-mutagenic effects, and to identify priority research areas. These PLANET activities will be used to improve the risk assessment and to contribute to the revision of the next main recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection.

A Historical Survey of Key Epidemiological Studies of Ionizing Radiation Exposure

In this article we review the history of key epidemiological studies of populations exposed to ionizing radiation. We highlight historical and recent findings regarding radiation-associated risks for incidence and mortality of cancer and non-cancer outcomes with emphasis on study design and methods of exposure assessment and dose estimation along with brief consideration of sources of bias for a few of the more important studies. We examine the findings from the epidemiological studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, persons exposed to radiation for diagnostic or therapeutic purposes, those exposed to environmental sources including Chornobyl and other reactor accidents, and occupationally exposed cohorts. We also summarize results of pooled studies. These summaries are necessarily brief, but we provide references to more detailed information. We discuss possible future directions of study, to include assessment of susceptible populations, and possible new populations, data sources, study designs and methods of analysis.

Incidence risk of hepatobiliary malignant neoplasms in the cohort of workers chronically exposed to ionizing radiation

The increased risk of liver malignancies was found in workers of the first Russian nuclear production facility, Mayak Production Association, who had been chronically exposed to gamma rays externally and to alpha particles internally due to plutonium inhalation. In the present study, we updated the radiogenic risk estimates of the hepatobiliary malignancies using the extended follow-up period (1948-2018) of the Mayak worker cohort and the improved «Mayak worker dosimetry system-2013». The cohort comprised 22,377 workers hired at the Mayak PA between 1948 and 1982. The analysis considered 62 liver malignancies (32 hepatocellular carcinomas, 13 intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas, 16 angiosarcomas, and 1 anaplastic cancer) and 33 gallbladder adenocarcinomas. The analysis proved the positive significant association of the liver malignancy risk (the total of histological types, hepatocellular carcinoma) with the liver absorbed alpha dose from internal exposure. The excess relative risk per Gy (95% confidence interval) of alpha dose (the linear model) was 7.56 (3.44; 17.63) for the total of histological types and 3.85 (0.95; 13.30) for hepatocellular carcinoma. Indications of non-linearity were observed in the dose-response for internal exposure to alpha radiation. No impact of external gamma-ray exposure on the liver malignancy incidence was found. In the study cohort, the number of angiosarcomas among various types of liver malignancies was very high (25.8%), and most of these tumors (73.3%) were registered in individuals internally exposed to alpha radiation at doses ranging between 6.0 and 21.0 Gy. No association with chronic occupational radiation exposure was observed for the incidence of gallbladder malignancies.

Cancer risk associated with low-dose ionizing radiation: A systematic review of epidemiological and biological evidence

The current radiation protection reference standards on stochastic cancer risk, drafted by the International Committee on Radiation Protection, are mostly based on the Life Span Study (LSS), though sufficient epidemiological and basic research evidence is lacking. The relationship between low-dose ionizing radiation (LDIR) and cancer risk is currently modeled with linear non-threshold (LNT) models. However, with the widespread use of medical examinations, the demand for substantial evidence of cancer risk under LDIR and the establishment of a threshold has become more significant. In the first part of the review, we summarize pivotal research in epidemiology, which includes the LSS, medical radiation studies, and occupational and environmental exposure studies. We describe and discuss solid cancers and hematopoietic malignancies induced by LDIR separately, attempting to identify the consistency and differences in the research results, and offering suggestions for future research directions. In the second part, we review recent progress in the underlying biology of cancer associated with LDIR. Besides the obvious harmful effect of DNA damage, chromosome aberrations caused by LDIR, epigenetic regulation also requires attention due to their relationship with carcinogenic and genetic risk. The multistage carcinogenesis model of stem cells, along with the varying effects of radiation on different tumors, may challenge the LNT model. Related research of stem cells, mitochondria and omic biology also offers promising directions for future research in this field.

A no-fault risk compensation approach for radiation risks incurred in space travel

In this paper we recommend an appropriate compensation approach should be established for fatality and disabilities that may occur due to space radiation exposures of government or industry workers. A brief review of compensation approaches for nuclear energy and nuclear weapons development workers in the United States and other countries is described. We then summarize issues in the application of probability of causation calculation and provide examples of probability of causation (PC) calculations for missions to the International Space Station and Earth's moon or for Mars exploration. The main focus of this paper follows with a recommendation of a no-fault approach to compensation with the creation of appropriate insurance policies funded by employers to cover all disabilities or fatality, without requiring proof of causation or restriction to conditions that imply causation. Importantly we propose that the compensation described should be managed by recourse to private insurers.

Reasons why the idea that radiation exposures induce cancer needs to be revisited

PURPOSE

It has long been thought that the carcinogenic effect of radiation resulted from the induction of oncogenic mutations which then led to an increase in the proportion of cancer-bearing individuals. However, even as early as the 1960s, there were indications that the carcinogenic effect of radiation might result from the induction of an earlier onset of cancer. Recently, the former notion was challenged by its inability to explain time-dependent decline of the relative risk following an exposure to radiation, and a parallel shift of mouse survival curves toward younger ages following an exposure to radiation. The two observations are clearly understood if it is assumed only that a radiation exposure causes an earlier onset of spontaneously occurring cancers.

METHOD

In the present study, a critical review was conducted which examined papers that showed dose responses which apparently supported the mutation induction theory of radiation carcinogenesis.

RESULTS

It was found that there were two types of misleading experimental designs: one consisted of studies in which observations were prematurely terminated, and which consequently hid a complete story of radiation carcinogenesis. The other set of papers used age adjustments which were derived from the idea that the life shortening effect of radiation needs to be compensated for since tumor mortality becomes higher among older subjects. This type of adjustment appeared reasonable but was found actually to be a different form of description on an earlier onset of cancer following radiation exposures.

CONCLUSION

In mouse experiments, radiation exposures did not lead to the induction of a large increase in the proportion of tumor deaths when life-long observations were made. Human epidemiologic data are also in line with the earlier onset hypothesis of radiation action. It should be cautioned, however, that the earlier onset model applies only to malignancies whose mortality increases rapidly with the increase of age and does not apply to diseases of short latency such as childhood leukemia and thyroid cancers.

Non-targeted effects and space radiation risks for astronauts on multiple International Space Station and lunar missions

Future space travel to the earth's moon or the planet Mars will likely lead to the selection of experienced International Space Station (ISS) or lunar crew persons for subsequent lunar or mars missions. Major concerns for space travel are galactic cosmic ray (GCR) risks of cancer and circulatory diseases. However large uncertainties in risk prediction occur due to the quantitative and qualitative differences in heavy ion microscopic energy deposition leading to differences in biological effects compared to low LET radiation. In addition, there are sparse radiobiology data and absence of epidemiology data for heavy ions and other high LET radiation. Non-targeted effects (NTEs) are found in radiobiology studies to increase the biological effectiveness of high LET radiation at low dose for cancer related endpoints. In this paper the most recent version of the NASA Space Cancer Risk model (NSCR-2022) is used to predict mission risks while considering NTEs in solid cancer risk predictions. I discuss predictions of space radiation risks of cancer and circulatory disease mortality for US Whites and US Asian-Pacific Islander (API) populations for 6-month ISS, 80-day lunar missions, and combined ISS-lunar mission. Model predictions suggest NTE increase cancer risks by about ∼2.3 fold over a model that ignores NTEs. US API are predicted to have a lower cancer risks of about 30% compared to US Whites. Cancer risks are slightly less than additive for multiple missions, which is due to the decease of risk with age of exposure and the increased competition with background risks as radiation risks increase. The inclusion of circulatory risks increases mortality estimates about 25% and 37% for females and males, respectively in the model ignoring NTEs, and 20% and 30% when NTEs are assumed to modify solid cancer risk. The predictions made here for combined ISS and lunar missions suggest risks are within risk limit recommendations by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) for such missions.

Residual radiation risk disparities across sex and race or ethnic groups for lifetime never-smokers on lunar missions

Missions to the Earth's moon are of scientific and societal interest, however pose the problem of risks of late effects for returning crew persons, most importantly cancer and circulatory diseases. In this paper, we discuss NSCR-2022 model risk estimates for lunar missions for US racial and ethnic groups comparing never-smokers (NS) to US averages for each group and sex. We show that differences within groups between men and women are reduced for NS compared to the average population. Race and ethnic group dependent cancer and circulatory disease risks are reduced by 10% to 40% for NS with the largest decrease for Whites. Circulatory disease risks are changed by less than 10% for NS and in several cases modestly increased due to increased lifespan for NS. Asian-Pacific Islanders (API) and Hispanics NS are at lower risk compared to Whites and Blacks. Differences between groups are narrowed for NS compared to predictions for average populations, however disparities remain especially for Blacks and to a lesser extent Whites compared to API or Hispanic NS groups.

Association of low-dose ionising radiation with site-specific solid cancers: Chinese medical X-ray workers cohort study, 1950-1995

BACKGROUND

The dose-response relationship between cancers and protracted low-dose rate exposure to ionising radiation is still uncertain. This study aims to estimate quantified relationships between low-dose radiation exposures and site-specific solid cancers among Chinese medical X-ray workers.

METHODS

This cohort study included 27 011 individuals who were employed at major hospitals in 24 provinces in China from 1950 to 1980 and had been exposed to X-ray equipment, and a control group of 25 782 physicians who were not exposed to X-ray equipment. Person-years of follow-up were calculated from the year of employment to the date of the first diagnosis of cancer or the end of follow-up, whichever occurred first. All cancers were obtained from medical records during 1950-1995. This study used Poisson regression models to estimate the excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) for incidence of site-specific solid cancers associated with cumulative dose.

RESULTS

1643 solid cancers were developed, the most common being lung, liver and stomach cancer. Among X-ray workers, the average cumulative colon dose was 0.084 Gy. We found a positive relationship between cumulative organ-specific dose and liver (ERR/Gy=1.48; 95% CI 0.40 to 2.83), oesophagus (ERR/Gy=18.1; 95% CI 6.25 to 39.1), thyroid (ERR/Gy=2.96; 95% CI 0.44 to 8.18) and non-melanoma skin cancers (ERR/Gy=7.96; 95% CI 2.13 to 23.12). We found no significant relationship between cumulative organ-specific doses and other cancers. Moreover, the results showed a statistically significant EAR for liver, stomach, breast cancer (female), thyroid and non-melanoma skin cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provided more useful insights into the risks of site-specific cancers from protracted low-dose rate exposure to ionising radiation.

Ionizing radiation promotes, whereas calorie restriction suppresses, NASH and hepatocellular carcinoma in mice

The pathological conditions of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are the major risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Exposure to DNA-damaging agents such as ionizing radiation is another risk factor for HCC; calorie restriction (CR), however, effectively delays the onset of radiation-induced HCC. We investigated whether NASH is relevant to radiation-induced HCC and the cancer-preventing effect of CR. Eight-day-old male B6C3F1 mice were irradiated with 3.8 Gy of X-rays and then fed a standard diet or 30% CR diet from 49 days of age until necropsy, which was performed from 56 to 600 days with ~100-day intervals to assess both pathological changes and gene expression levels. We found that early-life exposure to radiation accelerated lipid accumulation and NASH-like histopathological changes in the liver, accompanied by accelerated development of HCC. CR ameliorated the changes in lipid metabolism in the liver and reversed the NASH-like pathology, which effectively delayed HCC development. Gene-expression profiling revealed the radiation-related activation and CR-related suppression of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma/Cd36 pathway of transmembrane fatty-acid translocation before development of the NASH-like state. Thus, early-life exposure to radiation affects lipid metabolism and induces a steatoinflammatory microenvironment that favors HCC development. Therefore, targeting this pathway by CR (or measures that mimic CR) may be a promising strategy for preventing HCC caused by either radiation or other DNA-damaging agents.

Cancer incidence among Chernobyl cleanup workers from Estonia: A 34-year follow-up

From 1986 to 1991, 4831 men from Estonia were sent to clean up radioactively contaminated areas near Chernobyl (Chornobyl). Their cancer incidence during 1986 to 2019 was compared to that of the male population of Estonia. The cohort of cleanup workers was linked to national population and cancer registers based on unique personal identification numbers. Nineteen (0.4%) workers could not be traced. A total of 4812 men contributing 120 770 person-years of follow-up were eligible for the analyses. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and adjusted relative risks (ARR, expressed as ratios of SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. A total of 687 incident cancer cases were registered in the cohort (SIR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.19). Presumptive radiation-related cancers combined were in excess, but not when smoking- and alcohol-related cancers were excluded (SIR 0.92, 95% CI 0.71-1.18). For smoking-related cancers, the SIR was 1.24 (95% CI 1.13-1.36) and for alcohol-related cancer the SIR was 1.53 (95% CI 1.31-1.75). Less educated workers had a higher risk of all cancers (ARR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.02-1.44) and smoking-related cancers (ARR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.14-1.76). An elevated risk of alcohol-related cancers was evident 15 to 24 years (vs <15 years) after return from the Chernobyl area. This updated register-based follow-up of Chernobyl cleanup workers from Estonia revealed an excess of radiation-related cancer sites combined, but the excess was not apparent after excluding cancers associated with smoking and alcohol.

Insights into radiation carcinogenesis based on dose-rate effects in tissue stem cells

PURPOSE

Increasing epidemiological and biological evidence suggests that radiation exposure enhances cancer risk in a dose-dependent manner. This can be attributed to the 'dose-rate effect,' where the biological effect of low dose-rate radiation is lower than that of the same dose at a high dose-rate. This effect has been reported in epidemiological studies and experimental biology, although the underlying biological mechanisms are not completely understood. In this review, we aim to propose a suitable model for radiation carcinogenesis based on the dose-rate effect in tissue stem cells.

METHODS

We surveyed and summarized the latest studies on the mechanisms of carcinogenesis. Next, we summarized the radiosensitivity of intestinal stem cells and the role of dose-rate in the modulation of stem-cell dynamics after irradiation.

RESULTS

Consistently, driver mutations can be detected in most cancers from past to present, supporting the hypothesis that cancer progression is initiated by the accumulation of driver mutations. Recent reports demonstrated that driver mutations can be observed even in normal tissues, which suggests that the accumulation of mutations is a necessary condition for cancer progression. In addition, driver mutations in tissue stem cells can cause tumors, whereas they are not sufficient when they occur in non-stem cells. For non-stem cells, tissue remodeling induced by marked inflammation after the loss of tissue cells is important in addition to the accumulation of mutations. Therefore, the mechanism of carcinogenesis differs according to the cell type and magnitude of stress. In addition, our results indicated that non-irradiated stem cells tend to be eliminated from three-dimensional cultures of intestinal stem cells (organoids) composed of irradiated and non-irradiated stem cells, supporting the stem-cell competition.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose a unique scheme in which the dose-rate dependent response of intestinal stem cells incorporates the concept of the threshold of stem-cell competition and context-dependent target shift from stem cells to whole tissue. The concept highlights four key issues that should be considered in radiation carcinogenesis: i.e. accumulation of mutations; tissue reconstitution; stem-cell competition; and environmental factors like epigenetic modifications.

DOSE-RATE EFFECT OF RADIATION ON RAT MAMMARY CARCINOGENESIS AND AN EMERGING ROLE FOR STEM CELL BIOLOGY

The uncertain cancer risk of protracted radiation exposure at low dose rates is an important issue in radiological protection. Tissue stem/progenitor cells are a supposed origin of cancer and may contribute to the dose-rate effect on carcinogenesis. The authors have shown that female rats subjected to continuous whole body γ irradiation as juveniles or young adults have a notably reduced incidence of mammary cancer as compared with those irradiated acutely. Experiments using the mammosphere formation assay suggested the presence of radioresistant progenitor cells. Cell sorting indicated that basal progenitor cells in rat mammary gland were more resistant than luminal progenitors to killing by acute radiation, especially at high doses. Thus, the evidence indicates a cell-type-dependent inactivation of mammary cells that manifests only at high acute doses, implying a link to the observed dose-rate effect on carcinogenesis.

Comparison of All Solid Cancer Mortality and Incidence Dose-Response in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1958-2009

Recent analysis of all solid cancer incidence (1958-2009) in the Life Span Study (LSS) revealed evidence of upward curvature in the radiation dose response among males but not females. Upward curvature in sex-averaged excess relative risk (ERR) for all solid cancer mortality (1950-2003) was also observed in the 0-2 Gy dose range. As reasons for non-linearity in the LSS are not completely understood, we conducted dose-response analyses for all solid cancer mortality and incidence applying similar methods [1958-2009 follow-up, DS02R1 doses, including subjects not-in-city (NIC) at the time of the bombing] and statistical models. Incident cancers were ascertained from Hiroshima and Nagasaki cancer registries, while cause of death was ascertained from death certificates throughout Japan. The study included 105,444 LSS subjects who were alive and not known to have cancer before January 1, 1958 (80,205 with dose estimates and 25,239 NIC subjects). Between 1958 and 2009, there were 3.1 million person-years (PY) and 22,538 solid cancers for incidence analysis and 3.8 million PY and 15,419 solid cancer deaths for mortality analysis. We fitted sex-specific ERR models adjusted for smoking to both types of data. Over the entire range of doses, solid cancer mortality dose-response exhibited a borderline significant upward curvature among males (P = 0.062) and significant upward curvature among females (P = 0.010); for solid cancer incidence, as before, we found a significant upward curvature among males (P = 0.001) but not among females (P = 0.624). The sex difference in magnitude of dose-response curvature was statistically significant for cancer incidence (P = 0.017) but not for cancer mortality (P = 0.781). The results of analyses in the 0-2 Gy range and restricted lower dose ranges generally supported inferences made about the sex-specific dose-response shape over the entire range of doses for each outcome. Patterns of sex-specific curvature by calendar period (1958-1987 vs. 1988-2009) and age at exposure (0-19 vs. 20-83) varied between mortality and incidence data, particularly among females, although for each outcome there was an indication of curvature among 0-19-year-old male survivors in both calendar periods and among 0-19-year-old female survivors in the recent period. Collectively, our findings indicate that the upward curvature in all solid cancer dose response in the LSS is neither specific to males nor to incidence data; its evidence appears to depend on the composition of sites comprising all solid cancer group and age at exposure or time. Further follow up and site-specific analyses of cancer mortality and incidence will be important to confirm the emerging trend in dose-response curvature among young survivors and unveil the contributing factors and sites.

Race and ethnic group dependent space radiation cancer risk predictions

Future space missions by national space agencies and private industry, including space tourism, will include a diverse makeup of crewmembers with extensive variability in age, sex, and race or ethnic groups. The relative risk (RR) model is used to transfer epidemiology data between populations to estimate radiation risks. In the RR model cancer risk is assumed to be proportional to background cancer rates and limited by other causes of death, which are dependent on genetic, environmental and dietary factors that are population dependent. Here we apply the NSCR-2020 model to make the first predictions of age dependent space radiation cancer risks for several U.S. populations, which includes Asian-Pacific Islanders (API), Black, Hispanic (white and black), and White (non-Hispanic) populations. Results suggest that male API and Hispanic populations have the overall lowest cancer risks, while White females have the highest risk. Blacks have similar total cancer rates than Whites, however their reduced life expectancy leads to modestly lower lifetime radiation risks compared to Whites. There are diverse tissue specific cancer risk ranking across sex and race, which include sex specific organ risks, female’s having larger lung, stomach, and urinary-bladder radiation risks, and male’s having larger colon and brain risks.

Cancer risk following low doses of ionising radiation - Current epidemiological evidence and implications for radiological protection

Recent studies suggest that every year worldwide about a million patients might be exposed to doses of the order of 100 mGy of low-LET radiation, due to recurrent application of radioimaging procedures. This paper presents a synthesis of recent epidemiological evidence on radiation-related cancer risks from low-LET radiation doses of this magnitude. Evidence from pooled analyses and meta-analyses also involving epidemiological studies that, individually, do not find statistically significant radiation-related cancer risks is reviewed, and evidence from additional and more recent epidemiological studies of radiation exposures indicating excess cancer risks is also summarized. Cohorts discussed in the present paper include Japanese atomic bomb survivors, nuclear workers, patients exposed for medical purposes, and populations exposed environmentally to natural background radiation or radioactive contamination. Taken together, the overall evidence summarized here is based on studies including several million individuals, many of them followed-up for more than half a century. In summary, substantial evidence was found from epidemiological studies of exposed groups of humans that ionizing radiation causes cancer at acute and protracted doses above 100 mGy, and growing evidence for doses below 100 mGy. The significant radiation-related solid cancer risks observed at doses of several 100 mGy of protracted exposures (observed, for example, among nuclear workers) demonstrate that doses accumulated over many years at low dose rates do cause stochastic health effects. On this basis, it can be concluded that doses of the order of 100 mGy from recurrent application of medical imaging procedures involving ionizing radiation are of concern, from the viewpoint of radiological protection.

Radiation concerns in frequent flyer patients: Should imaging history influence decisions about recurrent imaging?

Radiation risks from diagnostic imaging have captured the attention of patients and medical practitioners alike, yet it remains unclear how these considerations can best be incorporated into clinical decision making. This manuscript presents a framework to consider these issues in a potentially at-risk population, the so called "frequent flyer" patients undergoing a large amount of recurrent imaging over time. Radiation risks from the low-dose exposures of diagnostic imaging are briefly reviewed, as applied to recurrent exposures. Some scenarios are then explored in which it may be helpful to incorporate knowledge of a patient's imaging history. There is no simple or uniformly applicable approach to these challenging and often nuanced clinical decisions. The complexity and variability of the underlying disease states and trajectories argues against alerting mechanisms based on a simple cumulative dose threshold. Awareness of imaging history may instead be beneficial in encouraging physicians and patients to take the long view, and to identify those populations of frequent flyers that might benefit from alternative imaging strategies.

Radiation Risks for the Incidence of Kidney, Bladder and Other Urinary Tract Cancers: 1958-2009

As part of the recent series of articles to create a comprehensive description of the radiation risks of solid cancer incidence after ionizing radiation exposure, based on the atomic bomb survivors' Life Span Study (LSS), this work focuses on the risks of urinary tract cancer (UTC) and kidney cancer. Analyses covered a 52-year period of follow-up, through 2009, among 105,444 eligible survivors who were alive and cancer free in 1958. This represents an additional 11 years of follow-up since the last comprehensive report, with a total of 3,079,502 person-years. We observed 790 UTC and 218 kidney cancer cases. Adjusted for smoking, there was a strong linear radiation dose response for UTC. The sex-averaged excess relative risk per 1 Gy (ERR/Gy) was 1.4 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.82 to 2.1). Both males and females showed significantly increased ERRs/Gy with female point estimates at a factor of 3.4 (95% CI: 1.4 to 8.6) greater than male estimates. UTC radiation risks were largely unmodified by age at exposure or attained age. The attributable fraction of UTC to radiation exposure was approximately 18% while that attributed to smoking was 48%. Kidney cancer showed an increased ERR due to smoking (0.56 per 50 pack-years; 95% CI -0.007 to 1.6; P = 0.054), but we did not observe any strong associations of kidney cancer with radiation exposure, although sex-specific dose responses were found to be statistically different.

Misclassification of primary liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors

Primary liver cancer is difficult to diagnose accurately at death, due to metastases from nearby organs and to concomitant diseases, such as chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Trends in diagnostic accuracy could affect radiation risk estimates for incident liver cancer by altering background rates or by impacting risk modification by sex and age. We quantified the potential impact of death-certificate inaccuracies on radiation risk estimates for liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors. True-positive and false-negative rates were obtained from a previous study that compared death-certificate causes of death with those based on pathological review, from 1958 to 1987. We assumed various scenarios for misclassification rates after 1987. We obtained estimated true positives and estimated false negatives by stratified sampling from binomial distributions with probabilities given by the true-positive and false-negative rates, respectively. Poisson regression methods were applied to highly stratified person-year tables of corrected case counts and accrued person years. During the study period (1958-2009), there were 1,885 cases of liver cancer, which included 383 death-certificate-only (DCO) cases; 1,283 cases with chronic liver disease as the underlying cause of death; and 150 DCO cases of pancreatic cancer among 105,444 study participants. Across the range of scenarios considered, radiation risk estimates based on corrected case counts were attenuated, on average, by 13-30%. Our results indicated that radiation risk estimates for liver cancer were potentially sensitive to death-certificate inaccuracies. Additional data are needed to inform misclassification rates in recent years.

Analyses of cancer incidence and other morbidities in gamma irradiated B6CF1 mice

With increasing medical radiation exposures, it is important to understand how different modes of delivery of ionizing radiation as well as total doses of exposure impact health outcomes. Our lab studied the risks associated with ionizing radiation by analyzing the Northwestern University Radiation Archive for animals (NURA). NURA contains detailed data from a series of 10 individual neutron and gamma irradiation experiments conducted on over 50,000 mice. Rigorous statistical testing on control mice from all Janus experiments enabled us to select studies that could be compared to one another and uncover unexpected differences among the controls as well as experimental animals. For controls, mice sham irradiated with 300 fractions died significantly earlier than those with fewer sham fractions and were excluded from the pooled dataset. Using the integrated dataset of gamma irradiated and control mice, we found that fractionation significantly decreased the death hazard for animals dying of lymphomas, tumors, non-tumors, and unknown causes. Gender differences in frequencies of causes of death were identified irrespective of irradiation and dose fractionation, with female mice being at a greater risk for all causes of death, except for lung tumors. Irradiated and control male mice were at a significantly greater risk for lung tumors, the opposite from observations noted in humans. Additionally, we discovered that lymphoma deaths can occur quickly after exposures to high doses of gamma rays. This study systematically cross-compared outcomes of different modes of fractionation evaluated across different Janus experiments and across a wide span of total doses. It demonstrates that protraction modulated survival and disease status differently based on the total dose, cause of death, and sex of an animal. This novel method for analyzing the Janus datasets will lead to insightful new mechanistic hypotheses and research in the fields of radiation biology and protection.