Association of Longitudinal Trajectories of Systolic BP with Risk of Incident CKD: Results from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study

Cumulative Blood Pressure Load and Incident CKD

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

The association of long-term cumulative blood pressure (BP) loads with the risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains a matter of debate. This study investigated this association among healthy Korean adults with normal kidney function.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

We analyzed 5,221 participants without CKD in the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study. Cumulative systolic and diastolic BP (SBP and DBP) loads were calculated as the ratios of the areas under the curve (AUC) for SBP≥120mm Hg or≥80mm Hg for DBP divided by the AUC for all SBP or DBP measurements during the exposure period. These AUCs were categorized into 4 groups: group 0 (reference), cumulative BP load of 0 and groups 1-3, tertiles of cumulative BP loads.

OUTCOME

Primary end point was incident CKD defined as a composite of an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) below 60mL/min/1.73m2 or proteinuria greater than 1+on dipstick examination for at least 2 consecutive measurements≥90 days apart.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the independent association of cumulative BP loads with incident CKD.

RESULTS

Higher cumulative SBP and DBP loads were associated with an increased risk of incident CKD (HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.12-1.35] for SBP; and HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.04-1.26] for DBP loads for each 1.0-unit greater load). Compared with SBP group 0, groups 2 and 3 were associated with 1.94- and 1.89-fold greater risk of incident CKD. Compared with DBP group 0, groups 2 and 3 were associated with 1.42- and 1.54-fold greater risks. These associations of high cumulative BP loads with an increased risk of incident CKD remained consistent even in the subgroups not taking antihypertensive agents or without prior hypertension diagnosis.

LIMITATIONS

The assessment of CKD outcomes relied on eGFR and spot urine tests.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the association between high cumulative SBP and DBP loads and the occurrence of CKD, even in individuals with normal BP levels.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Although hypertension is a major risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD), most studies have focused on single-point blood pressure (BP) measurements. To explore the association between long-term cumulative BP load and the development of CKD, 5,221 Korean adults with normal kidney function were included in this study. Cumulative systolic BP and diastolic BP load both exhibited a significant association with an increased risk of incident CKD. Notably, the association of cumulative BP loads with elevated risk of incident CKD was evident also in individuals who were not taking antihypertensive agents or who had no previous history of hypertension. These findings underscore the importance of managing long-term exposure to high BP, even in individuals with normal BP levels.

Effect of long-term blood pressure trajectory on the future development of chronic kidney disease: an analysis of data from the Korean National Insurance Health Checkup Study

OBJECTIVES

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a prevalent health issue that causes the irreversible loss of functioning nephrons, end-stage renal disease, cardiovascular disease, and premature mortality. Hypertension is the leading cause of CKD. However, the effect of long-term blood pressure (BP) changes on the development of CKD is still unknown. Therefore, the current study investigated the association between BP trajectory and the future development of CKD.

METHODS

In this study, 246,874 individuals aged ≥40 years who underwent health examinations during the screening period (2002-2009) were evaluated. The systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectory was determined using latent-class mixture modeling. New-onset CKD was identified during the follow-up period (2010-2019). The association between SBP trajectories and new-onset CKD was assessed.

RESULTS

In total, 111,900 adults (53,420 females, 51.9±6.4 years old) presented with 2 SBP trajectory classes: class 1 (n=66,935) and class 2 (n=44,965). During the follow-up period, patients with SBP trajectory class 2 had an approximately 2.1-fold increased risk of developing CKD (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.99 to 2.25; p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis adjusted for other significant variables, SBP trajectory class 2 was significantly associated with CKD in males (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.19; p=0.037), but not in females (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.95 to 1.18; p=0.321).

CONCLUSIONS

An elevated longitudinal BP was associated with a higher incidence of CKD in male participants aged ≥40 years. Nevertheless, further studies are needed to validate the clinical significance of an elevated SBP trajectory on CKD development.

The Association between Family History of Lung Cancer and Development of Lung Cancer: Analysis from the KoGES Data in Korea

Comprehensive analyses of the association between a family history of lung cancer and lung cancer risk are limited, especially in the Korean population. We used baseline data from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, conducted between 2001 and 2013. This study enrolled 198,980 individuals. Lung cancer diagnoses and family histories were determined using questionnaires. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of family history on the risk of lung cancer. Of 198,980 individuals, 6296 (3.2%) and 140 (0.1%) had a family history of lung cancer and lung cancer, respectively. Individuals with a family history of lung cancer in first-degree relatives (FDRs) had a higher risk of lung cancer development than those without (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.11-4.66). This was more pronounced in young individuals (<60 years) who had affected relatives diagnosed with lung cancer before the age of 60 years (aOR = 3.77, 95% CI = 1.19-11.88). In subgroup analyses, this association was more evident in women, never smokers, and young individuals. A family history of lung cancer, especially in FDRs, is a significant risk factor for lung cancer development in Korea.

Trajectories of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores as a predictor for incident chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

The relationship between atherosclerosis and renal function is well established. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores reflect atherosclerotic burden, which changes over time. We investigated the association between ASCVD risk trajectories and incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) using data from a large community-based Korean cohort with up to 16 years of follow-up.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 5032 participants without CKD from the baseline survey of the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study Ansan-Ansung cohort. Participants were categorized into stable or increasing ASCVD risk groups based on the revised ASCVD risk pooled cohort equation over a median period of exposure of 5.8 years. Incident CKD was defined as two consecutive events of an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2.

RESULTS

During a median 9.9 years of event accrual period, 449 (8.92%) new-onset CKD cases were identified. Multiple Cox proportional regression analyses showed that the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for incident CKD in the increasing group, compared to the stable group, was 2.13 (1.74-2.62) in the unadjusted model and 1.35 (1.02-1.78) in the fully-adjusted model. Significant relationships were maintained in subgroups of individuals in their 50s, without diabetes mellitus or hypertension. The prevalence of proteinuria was consistently higher in the increasing group than that in the stable group.

CONCLUSIONS

An increasing trend in ASCVD risk scores independently predicted adverse renal outcomes in patients without diabetes mellitus or hypertension. Continuous monitoring of ASCVD risk is not only important for predicting cardiovascular disease but also for predicting CKD.

Reorienting Latent Variable Modeling for Supervised Learning

Despite its potentials benefits, using prediction targets generated based on latent variable (LV) modeling is not a common practice in supervised learning, a dominating framework for developing prediction models. In supervised learning, it is typically assumed that the outcome to be predicted is clear and readily available, and therefore validating outcomes before predicting them is a foreign concept and an unnecessary step. The usual goal of LV modeling is inference, and therefore using it in supervised learning and in the prediction context requires a major conceptual shift. This study lays out methodological adjustments and conceptual shifts necessary for integrating LV modeling into supervised learning. It is shown that such integration is possible by combining the traditions of LV modeling, psychometrics, and supervised learning. In this interdisciplinary learning framework, generating practical outcomes using LV modeling and systematically validating them based on clinical validators are the two main strategies. In the example using the data from the Longitudinal Assessment of Manic Symptoms (LAMS) Study, a large pool of candidate outcomes is generated by flexible LV modeling. It is demonstrated that this exploratory situation can be used as an opportunity to tailor desirable prediction targets taking advantage of contemporary science and clinical insights.

A cohort study found a high risk of end-stage kidney disease associated with acromegaly

Acromegaly is a chronic systemic disease caused by excess levels of growth hormone and insulin-like growth factor-1 and is associated with numerous complications. Significantly, there is a lack of longitudinal data on kidney complications in patients with acromegaly. As such, we investigated the risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) (stage 5D, 5T) in these patients with nationwide data obtained from the National Health Information Database of the National Health Insurance Service in Republic of Korea. A retrospective cohort study was conducted of 2.187 patients with acromegaly and 10,935 age- and sex-matched (1:5) control subjects without acromegaly over a mean follow-up period of 6.51 years. The study outcomes were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis controlling for age, sex, household income, residential area, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, urolithiasis, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and atrial fibrillation. The incidence (per 1,000 person-years) ESKD was 2.00 among patients with acromegaly but only 0.46 among controls, (hazard ratio 4.35 (95% confidence interval 2.63-7.20)) implicating a significantly higher risk. After adjustment for covariates, the risk of ESKD (2.36 (1.36-4.12)) was still significantly higher in patients with acromegaly than that in controls. Among the covariates, diabetes and hypertension were significant facilitators between acromegaly and ESKD in mediation analysis. Pituitary surgery and somatostatin analogues did not significantly change these associations. Thus, acromegaly may be linked with a higher risk for ESKD both independently and through mediators such as diabetes and hypertension.

Association between waist circumference trajectories and incident non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

PURPOSE

Waist circumference (WC) is linked to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) incidence. However, the impact of longitudinal WC changes on NAFLD remains unclear. We investigated WC trajectories and NAFLD incidence in a large population-based cohort.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 2666 participants without NAFLD, who underwent biennial check-ups for 16 years, divided into a 6-year exposure period and a 10-year event accrual period. Participants were classified into increasing and decreasing WC trajectory groups during the median 5.9-year exposure period by group-based trajectory modeling. Multiple Cox proportional hazard regression analysis estimated the hazard ratio (HR) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) for incident NAFLD.

RESULTS

During the median 9.7-year event accrual period, 799 participants developed NAFLD. The increasing WC trajectory group had a higher NAFLD risk than the decreasing group, with an HR of 1.20 (95 % CI: 1.02-1.42). After adjusting for confounders, the adjusted-HR was 1.28 (95 % CI: 1.07-1.53). Subgroup analyses revealed significant findings for groups, regardless of abdominal obesity status.

CONCLUSION

An increasing WC trend was associated with a higher NAFLD risk, independent of abdominal obesity status. Monitoring WC changes may facilitate early detection of NAFLD risk groups and promote lifestyle modifications to prevent NAFLD onset.

Association of non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol trajectories with the development of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: an epidemiological and genome-wide association study

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) shares common risk factors with cardiovascular diseases. Effects of longitudinal trends in non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL) cholesterol on NAFLD development are not understood. This study aimed to assess the relationship between non-HDL cholesterol trajectories and the incidence of NAFLD and to identify genetic differences contributing to NAFLD development between non-HDL cholesterol trajectory groups.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 2203 adults (aged 40-69 years) who participated in the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study. During the 6-year exposure periods, participants were classified into an increasing non-HDL cholesterol trajectory group (n = 934) or a stable group (n = 1269). NAFLD was defined using a NAFLD-liver fat score > -0.640. Multiple Cox proportional hazard regression analysis estimated the hazard ratio (HR) and the 95% confidence interval (CI) for the incidence of NAFLD in the increasing group compared with the stable group.

RESULTS

A genome-wide association study identified significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with NAFLD. During the median 7.8-year of event accrual period, 666 (30.2%) newly developed NAFLD cases were collected. Compared with the stable non-HDL group, the adjusted HR (95% CI) for the incidence of NAFLD in the increasing non-HDL cholesterol group was 1.46 (1.25-1.71). Although there were no significant SNPs, the polygenic risk score was highest in the increasing group, followed by the stable and control groups.

CONCLUSION

Our study indicates that lifestyle or environmental factors have a greater effect size than genetic factors in NAFLD progression risk. Lifestyle modification could be an effective prevention strategy for NAFLD for people with elevated non-HDL cholesterol.

Childhood modifiable risk factors and later life chronic kidney disease: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Relationships between adulthood modifiable risk factors and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are well-established, but associations with childhood risk factors are unclear. This study systematically assesses the published evidence about childhood modifiable risk factors and adulthood CKD.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science to 6th May 2022. Articles were included if (1) they were population-based longitudinal studies, (2) exposures were potentially modifiable, for example through pharmacological or lifestyle modifications, including clinical conditions/measures (diabetes, blood pressure, adiposity, and dyslipidaemia); health behaviours (smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, fitness, and poor nutrition); and socio-economic factors (socio-economic position), and occurred during childhood (ages 2-19 years), and (3) outcome was CKD or surrogate markers of CKD in adulthood (ages 20 years or older). Three reviewers independently extracted the data.

RESULTS

15,232 articles were identified after deduplication; 17 articles met the inclusion criteria, reporting childhood blood pressure (n = 8), adiposity (n = 4), type 2 diabetes (n = 1), socio-economic position (n = 1), famine (n = 1), cardiorespiratory fitness (n = 1), and a healthy lifestyle score (n = 1). The results suggested positive associations of childhood adiposity, type 2 diabetes, and low socio-economic position and cardiorespiratory fitness in females with CKD in adulthood. Findings were inconsistent on associations between childhood BP and CKD in adulthood. Childhood healthy lifestyle score and exposure to famine were not associated with risk of CKD in adulthood.

CONCLUSIONS

The limited evidence suggests childhood factors may contribute to the CKD risk in adulthood, particularly adiposity, type 2 diabetes, and low socio-economic position and cardiorespiratory fitness in females. Further high-quality community-based studies are needed with long-term follow-up and investigation of a broader range of modifiable risk factors.

Changes in blood pressure and cardiovascular disease in middle-aged to older Chinese: the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Most studies on the associations of blood pressure (BP) with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk were based on single or average BP levels. Knowledge on the association between BP trajectories and CVD in middle-aged individuals who are not on antihypertensive medication may inform the care of individuals in this group whose BPs are not controlled.

METHODS

Eight thousand nine hundred and sixty-nine participants aged 50-70 years, without CVD at baseline and not taking antihypertensive medication throughout the study, were included. Four time-points data from the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study were used to identify BP trajectories using latent class mixed model. Cox regression was used to investigate the association of BP trajectories with fatal and nonfatal CVD till April 2021.

RESULTS

Three SBP trajectories were identified: 'low-slow-increase' characterized by SBP from 110 to 125 mmHg (86.5%); 'low-increase' from 110 to 150 mmHg (8.1%) and 'moderate-increase' from 125 to 155 mmHg (5.4%). Compared with the low-slow-increase group, the moderate-increase had the highest risk of CVD (hazard ratio = 1.76, 95% confidence interval = 1.34-2.29), ischemic heart disease (1.77, 1.01-3.09), myocardial infarction (3.52, 1.58-7.85), all strokes (1.88, 1.37-2.60), ischemic stroke (1.65, 1.10-2.49), haemorrhagic stroke (3.98, 1.30-12.12) and CVD mortality (2.41, 1.55-3.76). Higher risks of CVD (1.27, 1.01-1.61) and ischemic stroke (1.49, 1.07-2.09) in the low-increase group were also found.

CONCLUSION

Most people between 50 and 70 years of age and not taking antihypertensive medication maintained a slow increase SBP trajectory over a follow-up period of approximately 7 years. However, those whose SBPs increased from low and moderate levels were associated with higher CVD risks.

Association of Longitudinal Trajectories of Insulin Resistance With Adverse Renal Outcomes

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the relationship between time-serial changes in insulin resistance and renal outcomes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A prospective cohort of subjects from the general population without chronic kidney disease (CKD) underwent a biennial checkup for 12 years (n = 5,347). The 12-year duration was divided into a 6-year exposure period, where distinct HOMA for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) trajectories were identified using latent variable mixture modeling, followed by a 6-year event accrual period, from which the renal outcome data were analyzed. The primary end point was adverse renal outcomes, defined as a composite of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in two or more consecutive checkups or albumin ≥1+ on urine strip.

RESULTS

Two distinct groups of HOMA-IR trajectories were identified during the exposure period: stable (n = 4,770) and increasing (n = 577). During the event accrual period, 449 patients (8.4%) developed adverse renal outcomes, and the risk was higher in the increasing HOMA-IR trajectory group than in the stable group (hazard ratio 2.06, 95% CI 1.62-2.60, P < 0.001). The results were similar after adjustment for baseline clinical characteristics, comorbidities, anthropometric and laboratory findings, eGFR, and HOMA-IR. The clinical significance of increasing HOMA-IR trajectory was similar in three or four HOMA-IR trajectories. The increasing tendency of HOMA-IR was persistently associated with a higher incidence of adverse renal outcomes, irrespective of the prevalence of diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

An increasing tendency of insulin resistance was associated with a higher risk of adverse renal outcomes. Time-serial tracking of insulin resistance may help identify patients at high risk for CKD.

Association of blood pressure and long-term change with chronic kidney disease risk among Chinese adults with different glucose metabolism according to the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines

Whether the definition of hypertension according to 2017 AHA/ACC guidelines and blood pressure (BP) changes was related to the increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) remained debated. This prospective cohort study aimed to investigate the association of BP and long‐term BP change with CKD risk with different glucose metabolism according to the new hypertension guidelines. This study examined 12 951 participants and 11 183 participants derived from the older people cohort study, respectively. Participants were divided into three groups based on blood glucose and the risks were assessmented by the logistic regression model. During a 10 years of follow‐up period, 2727 individuals developed CKD (21.1%). Compared with those with BP < 130/80 mmHg, individuals with increased BP levels had significantly increased risk of incident CKD. Participants with BP of 130–139/80–89 or ≥140/90 mmHg had 1.51‐ and 1.89‐fold incident risk of CKD in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). Compared with individuals with stable BP (−5 to 5 mmHg), the risk of CKD was reduced when BP decreased by 5 mmHg or more and increased when BP increased ≥5 mmHg among normoglycemia and prediabetes participants. Similar results were observed for rapid estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline. In conclusion, the BP of 130–139/80–89 mmHg combined with prediabetes or DM had an increased risk of incident CKD and rapid eGFR decline in older people. Long‐term changes of BP by more than 5 mmHg among normoglycemia or prediabetes were associated with the risk of incident CKD and rapid eGFR decline.

Association Between Longitudinal Blood Pressure Trajectory and the Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease: Results From the KNOW-CKD

Studies on the longitudinal temporal trend of blood pressure (BP) and its impact on kidney function are scarce. Here, we evaluated the association of dynamic changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP) over time with adverse kidney outcomes. We analyzed 1837 participants from the KNOW-CKD (Korean Cohort Study for Outcomes in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease). The main exposure was 3 distinct SBP trajectories determined by the latent class mixed model (decreasing, stable, and increasing) using 3 SBP measurements at 0, 6, and 12 months. The primary outcome was CKD progression, defined as a composite of halving estimated glomerular filtration rate from baseline value or onset of end-stage kidney disease. SBP declined from 144 to 120 mm Hg in the decreasing SBP trajectory group and rose from 114 to 136 mm Hg in the increasing trajectory group within 1 year. During 6576 person-years of follow-up (median, 3.7 years), the composite outcome occurred in 521 (28.4%) participants. There were fewer primary outcome events in the decreasing (30.6%) and stable (26.5%) SBP trajectory groups than in the increasing trajectory group (33.0%). In the multivariable-adjusted cause-specific hazards model, increasing SBP trajectory was associated with a 1.28-fold higher risk for adverse kidney outcome compared with stable SBP trajectory. However, the risk for the primary outcome did not differ between the decreasing and stable SBP trajectory groups. In this longitudinal CKD cohort study, compared with stable SBP trajectory, increasing SBP trajectory was associated with higher risk for adverse kidney outcome, whereas decreasing SBP trajectory showed similar risk.

Blood pressure control in patients with chronic kidney disease

Uncontrolled blood pressure (BP) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) can lead to serious adverse outcomes. To prevent the occurrence of cardiovascular events (CVEs), and end-stage kidney disease, achieving an optimal BP level is important. Recently, there has been a paradigm shift in the management of BP largely as a result of the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT), which showed a reduction in CVEs by lowering systolic BP to 120 mmHg. A lower systolic blood pressure (SBP) target has been accepted by the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) 2021 guidelines. However, whether intensive control of SBP targeting < 120 mmHg is also effective in patients with CKD is controversial. Notably, this lower target SBP is associated with a higher risk of adverse kidney outcomes. Unfortunately, there have been no randomized controlled trials on this issue involving only patients with CKD, particularly those with advanced CKD. In this review, we discuss the optimal control of BP in patients with CKD in terms of reduction in death and CVEs as well as attenuation of CKD progression based on the evidence-based literature.