Public Health Effects of Restricting Retail Tobacco Product Displays and Ads

Comparison of smoking prevalence in Canada before and after nicotine vaping product access using the SimSmoke model

OBJECTIVES

The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to complex transitions between NVP and cigarette use. To circumvent the data limitations and parameter instability challenges in modeling transitions, we indirectly estimate NVPs' impact on smoking prevalence and resulting smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model.

METHODS

Canada SimSmoke uses age- and sex-specific data on Canadian population, smoking prevalence and tobacco control policies. The model incorporates the impact of cigarette-oriented policies on smoking prevalence but not the explicit contribution of NVPs. The model was calibrated from 1999 to 2012, thereby projecting smoking prevalence before NVPs were widely used in Canada. The NVP impact on smoking prevalence is inferred by comparing projected 2012-2020 smoking trends absent NVPs to corresponding trends from two Canadian national surveys. We further distinguish impacts before and after NVPs became regulated in 2018 and more available.

RESULTS

Comparing 2012-2020 survey data of post-NVP to SimSmoke projected smoking prevalence trends, one survey indicated an NVP-related relative reduction of 15% (15%) for males (females) age 15+, but 32% (52%) for those ages 15-24. The other survey indicated a 14% (19%) NVP-related smoking reduction for ages 18+, but 42% (53%) for persons ages 18-24. Much of the gain occurred since Canada relaxed NVP restrictions. NVP-related 2012-2020 smoking reductions yielded 100,000 smoking-attributable deaths averted from 2012 to 2060.

CONCLUSION

Smoking prevalence in Canada, especially among younger adults, declined more rapidly once NVPs became readily available. The emergence of NVPs into the Canadian marketplace has not slowed the decline in smoking.

Follow the money: a closer look at US tobacco industry marketing expenditures

INTRODUCTION

While much of the concern with tobacco industry marketing has focused on direct media advertising, a less explored form of marketing strategy is to discount prices. Price discounting is important because it keeps the purchase price low and can undermine the impact of tax increases.

METHODS

We examine annual US marketing expenditures from 1975 to 2019 by the largest cigarette and smokeless tobacco companies as reported to the Federal Trade Commission. We consider three categories: direct advertising, promotional allowances and price discounting. In addition to considering trends in these expenditures, we examine how price discounting expenditures relate to changes in product prices and excise taxes.

RESULTS

US direct advertising expenditures for cigarettes fell from 80% of total industry marketing expenditures in 1975 to less than 3% in 2019, while falling from 39% in 1985 to 6% in 2019 for smokeless tobacco. Price discounting expenditures for cigarettes became prominent after the Master Settlement Agreement and related tax increases in 2002. By 2019, 87% of cigarette marketing expenditures were for price discounts and 7% for promotional allowances. Smokeless marketing expenditures were similar: 72% for price promotions and 13% for promotional allowances. Price discounting increased with prices and taxes until reaching their currently high levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1975 and 2019, direct advertising dramatically fell while price discounting and promotional expenditures increased. Local, state and federal policies are needed that apply non-tax mechanisms to increase tobacco prices and restrict industry contracts to offset industry marketing strategies. Further study is needed to better understand industry decisions about marketing expenditures.

Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework

BACKGROUND

Policy simulation models (PSMs) have been used extensively to shape health policies before real-world implementation and evaluate post-implementation impact. This systematic review aimed to examine best practices, identify common pitfalls in tobacco control PSMs and propose a modelling quality assessment framework.

METHODS

We searched five databases to identify eligible publications from July 2013 to August 2019. We additionally included papers from Feirman et al for studies before July 2013. Tobacco control PSMs that project tobacco use and tobacco-related outcomes from smoking policies were included. We extracted model inputs, structure and outputs data for models used in two or more included papers. Using our proposed quality assessment framework, we scored these models on population representativeness, policy effectiveness evidence, simulated smoking histories, included smoking-related diseases, exposure-outcome lag time, transparency, sensitivity analysis, validation and equity.

FINDINGS

We found 146 eligible papers and 25 distinct models. Most models used population data from public or administrative registries, and all performed sensitivity analysis. However, smoking behaviour was commonly modelled into crude categories of smoking status. Eight models only presented overall changes in mortality rather than explicitly considering smoking-related diseases. Only four models reported impacts on health inequalities, and none offered the source code. Overall, the higher scored models achieved higher citation rates.

CONCLUSIONS

While fragments of good practices were widespread across the reviewed PSMs, only a few included a 'critical mass' of the good practices specified in our quality assessment framework. This framework might, therefore, potentially serve as a benchmark and support sharing of good modelling practices.

Linking Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) data to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC): The case for Tunisia

INTRODUCTION

The World Health Organization (WHO) had launched the Framework convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2003 in order to curve the epidemic of tobacco use worldwide. Since most smokers begin to smoke before the age of 18 years, Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) has been developed in order to monitor tobacco smoking among adolescents. Our aim was to assess smoking among Tunisian youth using GYTS 2017 data.

METHODS

GYTS is cross-sectional, two cluster school-based survey to produce a representative sample of students aged 13-15 years. It was conducted in 2017 in 67 secondary schools in Tunisia. The investigation tool was an anonymously answered questionnaire, which contained core questions about six majors tobacco related topics.

RESULTS

Lifetime cigarettes and waterpipe prevalence were 7.8% (14.4% of boys, 1.6% of girls, p<0.001) and 7.2% (13% of boys, 2.8% of girls, p<0.001), respectively. Among cigarette smokers, 62.5% were able to buy their own cigarettes. Overall, 23.5% of cigarette smokers and 41.5% of waterpipe smokers were not able to buy their products because of their age. Sixty percent of smokers wanted to quit and 56.4% had already tried to stop. Half of the respondents were exposed to SHS in their homes and 62.1% in indoor public places.

CONCLUSIONS

In Tunisia, tobacco prevalence among youth is high. Youth have free access to tobacco products and smoke-free regulations are only partially respected.

Tobacco-related cancers in Europe: The scale of the epidemic in 2018

BACKGROUND

Tobacco smoking is the major preventable cause of cancer. Despite the longstanding decline in smoking prevalence, lung cancer remains one of the most frequently diagnosed cancers in both sexes. We aimed to estimate the current cancer burden attributable to smoking in Europe.

METHODS

Smoking-related cancer incidence by country, cancer type, sex and age in Europe was estimated from GLOBOCAN 2018. We applied a modified version of the indirect method to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) for lung cancer and applied Levin's formula to estimate the PAF for other smoking-related cancer sites.

RESULTS

In Europe in 2018, 572,000 and 186,000 cancer cases were attributable to tobacco smoking in males and females respectively, accounting for 28% (males) and 10% (females) of all cancer cases. By region, the largest and the lowest PAF due to smoking in males occurred in Eastern Europe (35% of all cancer cases) and Northern Europe (21%), respectively. Among women, this pattern was reversed (16% in Northern Europe and 6% in Eastern Europe). Lung cancer accounted for more than half of the total cancer burden attributable to smoking (382,000). Other major contributors to the total PAF were lip, oral cavity and pharynx, bladder and laryngeal cancers in men (27% out of total PAF) and colorectal, pancreatic, oral cavity and pharyngeal cancers (21%) in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Tobacco smoking was responsible for one in five cancer cases in Europe in 2018. The introduction and robust implementation of tobacco control programmes are critical to reduce this cancer burden in the future.

Characteristics of storefront tobacco advertisements and differences by product type: A content analysis of retailers in New York City, USA

Tobacco companies in the U.S. spend billions of dollars advertising at the point-of-sale. Using photographs of storefront tobacco ads in New York City (NYC), we conducted a content analysis to describe the prevalence of common features across four product categories and illuminate ways in which they may influence behavior. In 2017, data collectors photographed exterior ads from a representative sample of tobacco retailers in NYC (n = 796). We coded each ad (n = 976) for the presence of various characteristics (e.g., brand, price displays, warning labels, menthol/flavors, size, location). Chi-square tests examined differences by product type. Most ads were for cigarettes (40%), followed by electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS, 27.9%), cigars (26.9%), and smokeless tobacco (5.2%). Over half of cigarette and smokeless tobacco ads promoted a menthol or flavored style (61% each), compared to about a quarter of cigar (25.9%) and ENDS ads (30.3%, p < .0001). Cigar and ENDS ads, however, were more frequently placed directly on the door of entry (49.4% and 46.7%, respectively, p < .001). Only 5% of ENDS ads displayed a standard warning label. Notably, a quarter of all tobacco ads (23.4%) were for the brand Newport. Cigarette ads still dominate at the point-of-sale with regard to volume and size. Across all products, ad features did not always align with local and federal policies (e.g., flavor bans, warning label mandates). Continued surveillance of advertising strategies and policy compliance can help provide the evidence base needed to inform marketing regulations that reduce the deadly burden of tobacco use.

An Economic Analysis of the Pre-Deeming US Market for Nicotine Vaping Products

OBJECTIVES

Public health policies are often enacted without adequate consideration of the existing market structure or their impacts on that market structure. This paper provides context for the potential impact of regulations on nicotine vaping products (NVP) use by providing a structural analysis of competition in the US NVP market before FDA regulation.

METHODS

A literature review was conducted with the aim of providing a framework for analysis that: 1) defines the market; 2) evaluates market concentration; 3) identifies entry barriers; and 4) examines firm conduct.

RESULTS

The NVP market includes retail, internet sellers and vape shops. Although conventional retail became more concentrated after the major cigarette companies entered the NVP market, the vape shop and internet sectors remain substantially less concentrated, producing an overall low market concentration, with few entry barriers and competitive behavior.

CONCLUSIONS

The largely unregulated US NVP market has been highly competitive, with a high degree of innovation. However, new FDA deeming regulations as applied to NVPs could make it difficult for smaller companies to remain in the market and could discourage new companies and new product innovations from entering the market.

The US Cigarette Industry: An Economic and Marketing Perspective

Objectives

Tobacco company conduct has been a central concern in tobacco control. Nevertheless, the public health community has not taken full advantage of the large economics and marketing literature on market competition in the cigarette industry.

Methods

We conducted an unstructured narrative review of the economics and marketing literature using an antitrust framework that considers: 1) market; definition, 2) market concentration; 3) entry barriers; and 4) firm conduct.

Results

Since the 1960s, U.S. cigarette market concentration has increased primarily due to mergers and growth in the Marlboro brand. Entry barriers have included brand proliferation, slotting allowance contracts with retailers and government regulation. While cigarette sales have declined, established firms have used coordinated price increases, predatory pricing and price discrimination to sustain their market power and profits.

Conclusions

Although the major cigarette firms have exercised market power to increase prices and profits, the market could be radically changing, with consumers more likely to use several different types of tobacco products rather than just smoking a single cigarette brand. Better understanding of the interaction between market structure and government regulation can help develop effective policies in this changing tobacco product market.

The US SimSmoke tobacco control policy model of smokeless tobacco and cigarette use

Background

Smokeless tobacco (SLT) prevalence had been declining in the US prior to 2002 but has since increased. Knowledge about the impact of tobacco control policies on SLT and cigarette use is limited. This study examines the interrelationship between policies, cigarette use, and SLT use by applying the SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model.

Methods

Using data from large-scale Tobacco Use Supplement and information on policies implemented, US SimSmoke was updated and extended to incorporate SLT use. The model distinguishes between exclusive SLT and dual use of SLT and cigarettes, and considers the effect of implementing individual and combined tobacco control policies on smoking and SLT use, and on deaths attributable to their use. After validating against Tobacco Use Supplement (TUS) survey data through 2015, the model was used to estimate the impact of policies implemented between 1993 and 2017.

Results

SimSmoke reflected trends in exclusive cigarette use from the TUS, but over-estimated the reductions, especially among 18–24 year olds, until 2002 and under-estimated the reductions from 2011 to 2015. By 2015, SimSmoke projections of exclusive SLT and dual use were close to TUS estimates, but under-estimated reductions in both from 1993 to 2002 and failed to estimate the growth in male exclusive SLT use, especially among 18–24 year olds, from 2011 to 2015. SimSmoke projects that policies implemented between 1993 and 2017 reduced exclusive cigarette use by about 35%, dual use by 32.5% and SLT use by 16.5%, yielding a reduction of 7.5 million tobacco-attributable deaths by 2067. The largest reductions were attributed to tax increases.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that cigarette-oriented policies may be effective in also reducing the use of other tobacco products. However, further information is needed on the effect of tobacco control policies on exclusive and dual SLT use and the role of industry.

The Effect of Tobacco Control Policies on US Smokeless Tobacco Use: A Structured Review

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco use has shifted increasingly from cigarettes to other products. While the focus has been mostly on cigarette-oriented policies, it is important to gauge the effects of policies targeting other products. We review and critique the literature on how policies affect smokeless tobacco (ST).

METHODS

We conducted a search of the literature on tobacco control policies as they relate to ST use, focusing on tobacco taxes, smoke-free air laws, media campaigns, advertising restrictions, health warnings, cessation treatment policies, and youth access policies. Findings from 78 total studies are summarized.

RESULTS

ST taxes, media campaigns, health warnings, and cessation treatment policies were found to be effective tools in reducing ST use. Evidence on the effects of current youth access policies is less strong. Studies have not yet been conducted on marketing or product content restrictions, but the literature indicates that product marketing, through advertising, packaging, flavorings, and extension of cigarette brands, plays an important role in ST use.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the evidence base is less established for ST policies than for cigarette policies, the existing literature indicates ST use responds to tobacco control policies. Policies should be structured in a way that aims to reduce all tobacco use while at the same time increasing the likelihood that continuing tobacco users use the least risky products.

IMPLICATIONS

Studies find that policies targeting smoking and policies targeting smokeless products affect smokeless use, but studies are needed to examine the effect of policies on the transitions between cigarette and smokeless use.

Tobacco Smoke Exposure in Indoor and Outdoor Locations in Airports Across Europe and the United States: A Cross-Sectional Study

Objective

Conduct a systematic evaluation of indoor and outdoor areas of selected airports, assess compliance and identify areas of improvement with smoke-free policies in airports.

Methods

Cross-sectional observational study conducted at 21 airports in Europe (11) and the United States (10). Using a standardized protocol, we assessed compliance (smoking, cigarette butts, smoke smell), and the physical environment (signage, ashtrays, designated smoking rooms [DSRs], tobacco sales).

Results

Cigarette butts (45% vs. 0%), smoke smell (67% vs. 0%), ashtrays (18% vs. 10%), and DSRs (63% vs. 30%) were observed more commonly indoors in Europe than in the United States. Poor compliance indoors was related to the presence of DSRs (OR 4.8, 95% CI 0.69, 33.8) and to cigarettes sales in pre-security areas (OR 6.0, 95% CI 0.57, 64.7), although not significantly different. Smoking was common in outdoor areas of airports in Europe and the United States (mean (SD) number of smokers 27.7 (23.6) and 6.3 (7.7), respectively, p value < .001). Around half (55%) of airports in Europe and all airports in the United States had some/partial outdoor smoking restrictions.

Conclusions

Exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) remains a public health problem in major airports across Europe and in some airports in the United States, specifically related to the presence of DSRs and SHS exposure in outdoor areas. Airports must remove DSRs. Research is needed in low- and middle-income countries and on the effectiveness of outdoor smoking-restricted areas around entryways. Eliminating smoking at airports will protect millions of people from SHS exposure and promote social norms that discourage smoking.

Implications

Airports are known to allow exceptions to smoke-free policy by providing DSRs. We found that smoking still occurs in indoor areas in airports, particularly in the context of DSRs. Smoking, moreover, is widespread in outdoor areas and compliance with smoking restrictions is limited. Advancing smoke-free policy requires improvements to the physical environment of airports, including removal of DSRs and implementation of stricter outdoor smoking restrictions.

Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes

Introduction

US tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use (‘vaping’) in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress.

Methods

A Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts.

Findings

Compared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016.

Conclusions

The tobacco control community has been divided regarding the role of e-cigarettes in tobacco control. Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm.

Impact on smoking of England's 2012 partial tobacco point of sale display ban: a repeated cross-sectional national study

BACKGROUND

A partial tobacco point of sale (PoS) display ban was introduced in large shops (>280 m2 floor area) in England on 6 April 2012. The aim of this study was to assess the medium-term effects of the partial tobacco PoS display ban on smoking in England.

METHODS

Data were used from 129 957 respondents participating in monthly, cross-sectional household surveys of representative samples of the English adult population aged 18+ years from January 2009 to February 2015. Interrupted-time series regression models assessed step changes in the level of current smoking and cigarette consumption in smokers and changes in the trends postban compared with preban. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic variables and e-cigarette use, seasonality and autocorrelation. Potential confounding by cigarette price was accounted for by time, as price was almost perfectly correlated with time.

RESULTS

Following the display ban, there was no immediate step level change in smoking (-3.69% change, 95% CI -7.94 to 0.75, p=0.102) or in cigarette consumption (β -0.183, 95% CI -0.602 to 0.236). There was a significantly steeper decline in smoking post display ban (-0.46% change, 95% CI -0.72 to -0.20, p=0.001). This effect was demonstrated by respondents in manual occupations (-0.62% change, 95% CI -0.72 to -0.20, p=0.001), but not for those in non-manual occupations (-0.42, 95% CI -0.90 to 0.06, p=0.084). Cigarette consumption declined preban period (β -0.486, 95% CI -0.633 to -0.339, p<0.001), but no significant change in cigarette consumption trend was observed (β 0.019, 95% CI -0.006 to 0.042, p=0.131).

CONCLUSIONS

The partial tobacco PoS display ban introduced in England in April 2012 did not lead to an immediate decline in smoking, but was followed by a decline in the trend of smoking prevalence that could not be accounted for by seasonal factors, e-cigarette use or price changes.

A framework for evaluating the public health impact of e-cigarettes and other vaporized nicotine products

The use of vaporized nicotine products (VNPs), especially e-cigarettes and, to a lesser extent, pressurized aerosol nicotine products and heat-not-burn tobacco products, are being adopted increasingly as an alternative to smoking combusted products, primarily cigarettes. Considerable controversy has accompanied their marketing and use. We propose a framework that describes and incorporates patterns of VNP and combustible cigarette use in determining the total amount of toxic exposure effects on population health. We begin by considering toxicity and the outcomes relevant to population health. We then present the framework and define different measures of VNP use; namely, trial and long-term use for exclusive cigarette smokers, exclusive VNP and dual (cigarette and VNP) use. Using a systems thinking framework and decision theory we considered potential pathways for current, former and never users of VNPs. We then consider the evidence to date and the probable impacts of VNP use on public health, the potential effects of different policy approaches and the possible influence of the tobacco industry on VNP and cigarette use.

Global tobacco prevention and control in relation to a cardiovascular health promotion and disease prevention framework: A narrative review

The purpose of this review is to emphasize the role of tobacco prevention and control in cardiovascular health (CVH) promotion and cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, including the importance of these endpoints for measuring the full impact of tobacco-related policies, programs, and practices. In this review, we describe an overview of tobacco control interventions that have led to substantial declines in tobacco use and the relationship between these declines with CVH and CVD. We review interventions that have had success in high-income countries (HICs) as well as those that are gaining traction in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We emphasize the challenges to comprehensive tobacco prevention and control strategies faced by LMICs, and highlight the special role of cardiovascular health professionals in achieving CVH promotion and CVD prevention endpoints through tobacco control. Tobacco prevention and control strategies have a strong scientific basis, yet a distinct gap remains between this evidence and implementation of tobacco control policies, particularly in LMICs. Health professionals can contribute to tobacco control efforts, especially through patient-level clinical interventions, when supported by a health care system and government that recognize and support tobacco control as a critical strategy for CVH promotion and CVD prevention. Understanding, supporting, and applying current and evolving policies, programs, and practices in tobacco prevention and control is the province of all health professionals, especially those concerned with CVH promotion and CVD prevention. A new tobacco control roadmap from the World Heart Federation provides a strong impetus to the needed interdisciplinary collaboration.

Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population

BACKGROUND

Since there is some evidence that the density and distribution of tobacco retail outlets may influence smoking behaviours, we aimed to estimate the impacts of 4 tobacco outlet reduction interventions in a country with a smoke-free goal: New Zealand (NZ).

METHODS

A multistate life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases, using national data by sex, age and ethnicity, was used to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and net costs over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lifetime. The outlet reduction interventions assumed that increased travel costs can be operationalised as equivalent to price increases in tobacco.

RESULTS

All 4 modelled interventions led to reductions of >89% of current tobacco outlets after the 10-year phase-in process. The most effective intervention limited sales to half of liquor stores (and nowhere else) at 129 000 QALYs gained over the lifetime of the population (95% UI: 74 100 to 212 000, undiscounted). The per capita QALY gains were up to 5 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori. All interventions were cost-saving to the health system, with the largest saving for the liquor store only intervention: US$1.23 billion (95% UI: $0.70 to $2.00 billion, undiscounted).

CONCLUSIONS

These tobacco outlet reductions reduced smoking prevalence, achieved health gains and saved health system costs. Effects would be larger if outlet reductions have additional spill-over effects (eg, smoking denormalisation). While these interventions were not as effective as tobacco tax increases (using the same model), these and other strategies could be combined to maximise health gain and to maximise cost-savings to the health system.

Complying with the framework convention for tobacco control: an application of the Abridged SimSmoke model to Israel

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) established the MPOWER policy package to provide practical country-level guidance on implementing effective policies to reduce smoking rates. The Abridged SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is applied to Israel to estimate the effects on reducing smoking-attributable mortality resulting from full implementation of MPOWER policies.

METHODS

Smoking prevalence from the 2014 Israel National Health Interview Survey 3 and population data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate the number of current smokers. The status of current Israeli policy was determined using information from MPOWER 2015 and from local sources. Based on existing knowledge that between 50 % and 65 % of smokers will die prematurely from smoking, the model is used to determine mortality reductions among current smokers from full implementation of MPOWER policies.

RESULTS

We estimate that between 547 and 711 thousand smokers of the current 1.1 million Israeli smokers will prematurely die due smoking. Within 40 years, complete implementation of MPOWER policies is projected to reduce smoking prevalence among current smokers by 34% and avert between 187 and 243 thousand deaths. Taxes, smoke-free air laws, marketing restrictions and media campaigns each reduce smoking by about 5 % within 5 years. Improved cessation treatment and health warnings each have smaller effects in the next five years, but their effects grow rapidly over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Israel Abridged SimSmoke shows that complete implementation of the MPOWER strategies has the potential to substantially reduce smoking prevalence, and avert premature deaths due to smoking. Additional benefits are also expected from reduced morbidity, reduced initiation among nonsmokers, and reduction in exposure of nonsmokers to tobacco smoke.

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the Michigan SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model

INTRODUCTION

Michigan has implemented several of the tobacco control policies recommended by the World Health Organization MPOWER goals. We consider the effect of those policies and additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs).

METHODS

The SimSmoke tobacco control policy simulation model is used to examine the effect of past policies and a set of additional policies to meet the MPOWER goals. The model is adapted to Michigan using state population, smoking, and policy data starting in 1993. SADs are estimated using standard attribution methods. Upon validating the model, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 against a counterfactual with policies kept at their 1993 levels. The model is then used to project the effect of implementing stronger policies beginning in 2014.

RESULTS

SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2010. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 22 % by 2013 and of 30 % by 2054 can be attributed to tobacco control policies. Of the 22 % reduction, 44 % is due to taxes, 28 % to smoke-free air laws, 26 % to cessation treatment policies, and 2 % to youth access. Moreover, 234,000 SADs are projected to be averted by 2054. With additional policies consistent with MPOWER goals, the model projects that, by 2054, smoking prevalence can be further reduced by 17 % with 80,000 deaths averted relative to the absence of those policies.

CONCLUSIONS

Michigan SimSmoke shows that tobacco control policies, including cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, and cessation treatment policies, have substantially reduced smoking and SADs. Higher taxes, strong mass media campaigns, and cessation treatment policies would further reduce smoking prevalence and SADs.

Global Evidence on the Association between POS Advertising Bans and Youth Smoking Participation

Background: Point-of-sale (POS) tobacco advertising has been linked to youth smoking susceptibility and experimental smoking. However, there is limited evidence of the association between POS advertising bans and youth smoking participation. This study aims to examine how such bans are associated with current smoking, daily smoking, and regular smoking (≥1 cigarettes per day) participation among youth. Methods: one to two waves (primarily one wave) of the Global Youth Tobacco Survey were conducted in 130 countries between 2007 and 2011. These surveys were linked to the WHO “MPOWER” data using country and year identifiers to analyze the association between POS advertising bans (a dichotomous measure of the existence of such bans) and smoking participation in the past month. Weighted logistic regressions were employed to analyze this association while controlling for age, gender, parents’ smoking status, 6 MPOWER policy scores, and GDP per capita. Results and Conclusions: We find that in countries with POS advertising bans, current smoking (OR = 0.73, p ≤ 0.1), daily smoking (OR = 0.70, p ≤ 0.1), and regular smoking (OR = 0.75, p ≤ 0.05) participation in the past month is significantly lower, suggesting that POS promotion bans can potentially reduce youth smoking. This study provides evidence to support the implementation of POS promotion regulations by the US FDA and implementation of the WHO FCTC guidelines regarding restrictions on tobacco POS promotion.

Point-of-sale tobacco promotion and youth smoking: a meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Previous systematic reviews have found consistent evidence of a positive association between exposure to point-of-sale (POS) tobacco promotion and increased smoking and smoking susceptibility among children and adolescents. No meta-analysis has been conducted on these studies to date.

METHODS

Systematic literature searches were carried out to identify all quantitative observational studies that examined the relationship between POS tobacco promotion and individual-level smoking and smoking-related cognitions among children and adolescents, published between January 1990 and June 2014. Random-effects meta-analyses were used. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to extent of tobacco POS advertising environment in the study environment. Sensitivity analyses were performed according to study size and quality.

RESULTS

13 studies met the inclusion criteria; 11 reported data for behavioural outcomes, 6 for cognitive outcomes (each of these assessed smoking susceptibility). The studies were cross-sectional, with the exception of 2 cohort studies. For the behavioural outcomes, the pooled OR was 1.61 (95% CI 1.33 to 1.96) and for smoking susceptibility the pooled OR was 1.32 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.61).

CONCLUSIONS

Children and adolescents more frequently exposed to POS tobacco promotion have around 1.6 times higher odds of having tried smoking and around 1.3 times higher odds of being susceptible to future smoking, compared with those less frequently exposed. Together with the available evaluations of POS display bans, the results strongly indicate that legislation banning tobacco POS promotion will effectively reduce smoking among young people.

Regulating Tobacco Product Advertising and Promotions in the Retail Environment: A Roadmap for States and Localities

Recent amendments to federal law and a burgeoning body of research have intensified public health officials' interest in reducing youth initiation of tobacco use, including by regulating the time, place, or manner of tobacco product advertising at the point of sale. This article analyzes legal obstacles to various strategies for reducing youth initiation.