Impact of three global change drivers on a Mediterranean shrub

Intrapopulation germinability may help the Mediterranean plant species Poterium spinosum L. to cope with climate changes and landscape fragmentation

Poterium spinosum L. is a key plant species forming typical shrub communities, distributed across the Mediterranean eastern coasts. The conservation of P. spinosum is thus of the utmost importance, especially due to the ever-increasing environmental pressures like climate changes and habitat fragmentation. This study, in particular, investigated for the first time the germination variability of P. spinosum at intrapopulation level, by analysing the germination behavior of five different subpopulations growing along the coasts of Sicily. For a more exhaustive picture of the main drivers of biodiversity loss affecting the distributional area of P. spinosum, the trends of climate and land-cover changes were also studied over the periods 1931-2020 and 1958-2018, respectively. The results found significant intrapopulation variability in P. spinosum, whose germination parameters showed that fruits and seeds from distinct subpopulations respond differently to diverse temperatures. Seeds showed generally higher values of final germination percentage (FGP) compared to fruits, and at higher temperatures: the highest FGP in seeds was 70% at 20 °C, whereas in fruits was 58.2% at 15 °C. The environmental threats showed worrying trends across the study area: during 1931-2020, the average temperature increased by 1.5 °C, whereas the average rainfall declined from 710 to 650 mm. Similarly, in the period 1958-2018, the analysis of the CORINE land-cover changes showed a highly fragmented agricultural landscape, where natural areas were reduced to 2.5-5.0%. Germination variability at intrapopulation level should be considered as a fundamental adaptation strategy, which can increase the reproductive success of P. spinosum under climate and land-cover changes.

Rise, fall and hope for the Sicilian endemic plant Muscari gussonei: A story of survival in the face of narrow germination optimum, climate changes, desertification and habitat fragmentation

Muscari gussonei is an endangered endemic plant growing on fragmented Mediterranean coastal dunes. This study focused on the germination performance of M. gussonei at two fixed temperatures, 10 and 15 °C, and at an alternating one, 10/20 °C, and on the multi-temporal trends of temperature and rainfall during 1931-2020, as well as on the patterns of desertification and land-cover changes over the last 60 years. High and similar germinability was found for different populations of M. gussonei, in particular, the final germination percentage (FGP) was ≥95 % for the three treatments. The general pattern was the lower the temperature the higher and faster the germination. However, germination speed varied significantly among populations. This intraspecific variability of germination behavior may suggest a certain level of ecophysiological plasticity in M. gussonei, thus raising hopes on the capacity of M. gussonei to respond better to the ongoing severe environmental changes. In the period 1931-2020, indeed, the average temperature rose by 1.5 °C, from 16.8 to 18.3 °C, which is equivalent to the enormous increase of 0.17 °C per decade. Similarly, the average rainfall declined by 100 mm, from 600 to 500 mm. Another serious stressor was desertification, which affects >90 % of the distributional area of M. gussonei. A further factor of ecological degradation is a considerably altered landscape, where the agricultural component accounts for c. 85 %, whereas natural and seminatural areas were only c. 10 %. Increasing temperature and dryness will inevitably reduce the germinability of M. gussonei, characterized by a narrow germination optimum of 10-15 °C. The future of M. gussonei looks even more dramatic if we consider its small and scattered populations distributed in an agricultural matrix affected by high levels of desertification. Only multivariate information at different space-time scales can provide an exhaustive picture for implementing effective conservation strategies.

Response of Fragaria vesca to projected change in temperature, water availability and concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere

The high rate of climate change may soon expose plants to conditions beyond their adaptation limits. Clonal plants might be particularly affected due to limited genotypic diversity of their populations, potentially decreasing their adaptability. We therefore tested the ability of a widely distributed predominantly clonally reproducing herb (Fragaria vesca) to cope with periods of drought and flooding in climatic conditions predicted to occur at the end of the twenty-first century, i.e. on average 4 °C warmer and with twice the concentration of CO2 in the air (800 ppm) than the current state. We found that F. vesca can phenotypically adjust to future climatic conditions, although its drought resistance may be reduced. Increased temperature and CO2 levels in the air had a far greater effect on growth, phenology, reproduction, and gene expression than the temperature increase itself, and promoted resistance of F. vesca to repeated flooding periods. Higher temperature promoted clonal over sexual reproduction, and increased temperature and CO2 concentration in the air triggered change in expression of genes controlling the level of self-pollination. We conclude that F. vesca can acclimatise to predicted climate change, but the increased ratio of clonal to sexual reproduction and the alteration of genes involved in the self-(in)compatibility system may be associated with reduced genotypic diversity of its populations, which may negatively impact its ability to genetically adapt to novel climate in the long-term.

Lockdown effects on fear revealed direct and indirect effects of human presence on perceived predation risk

The Covid-19 lockdown reduced drastically human presence outdoors, providing an uncontrolled experiment for disentangling direct and indirect effects of human presence on animal fearfulness. We measured 18,494 flight initiation distances (FIDs, the distance at which individual animals fly away when approached by a human) from 1333 populations of 202 bird species taken in four European cities both before, during and after the lockdown. FIDs decreased during lockdown in rural habitats but increased in urban habitats, especially for singing birds. Height above ground increases during lockdown in non-singing birds only, and birds adjusted horizontal tolerance to approach according to height outside lockdown, in rural habitats and while not singing. Responses showed lagged effects after lockdown in urban but not in rural habitats. Differential responses to lockdown among habitats and between signing and non-singing birds were consistent with relaxation of direct disturbance effects on birds in rural habitats during lockdown, as well as with increased indirect fear effects mediated by predator release in cities. FIDs seemed to measure the balance of direct and indirect effects of humans on predations risk and food needs rather than direct effects of humans on fear.

Global change effects on Mediterranean small mammal population dynamics: Demography of Algerian mice (Mus spretus) along land use and climate gradients

Climate and land use change are key global change drivers shaping future species' distributions and abundances. Negative interactions among effects of drivers can reduce the accuracy of models aimed at predicting such distributions. Here we analyse how climate and land use affected population dynamics and demography of the Algerian mouse (Mus spretus), an open-land thermophilic Mediterranean small mammal. Change to a warmer and drier climate would facilitate the expansion of the species, whereas landscape change (forest encroachment following extensive land abandonment) would produce its retreat. We correlated abundance and demography parameters computed from captures obtained in 16 plots during a 10-years period (2008-2017; SEMICE small mammal monitoring) with climate, vegetation and land use change. Climate became warmer and dryer, and afforestation due to encroachment occurred in 81 % of plots. Expected positive effects of climate warming, derived from bioclimatic niche models, were counterbalanced by negative effects of both increasing hydric deficit and changes in vegetation and landscape structure. Abundance showed a slight but significant decline (-5 %). The species' range was more resilient to change, as shown by occupancy analyses, apparently due to strong local effects of vegetation structure on occupancy. This result highlighted that negative population trends would not necessarily produce range retractions. Simultaneously analysing both abundance trends and occupancy patterns may thus allow for deeper understanding and more accurate predictions of expected population trends in response to interacting global change drivers.

Drivers of phenological changes in southern Europe

The life cycle of plants is largely determined by climate, which renders phenological responses to climate change a highly suitable bioindicator of climate change. Yet, it remains unclear, which are the key drivers of phenological patterns at certain life stages. Furthermore, the varying responses of species belonging to different plant functional types are not fully understood. In this study, the role of temperature and precipitation as environmental drivers of phenological changes in southern Europe is assessed. The trends of the phenophases leaf unfolding, flowering, fruiting, and senescence are quantified, and the corresponding main environmental drivers are identified. A clear trend towards an earlier onset of leaf unfolding, flowering, and fruiting is detected, while there is no clear pattern for senescence. In general, the advancement of leaf unfolding, flowering and fruiting is smaller for deciduous broadleaf trees in comparison to deciduous shrubs and crops. Many broadleaf trees are photoperiod-sensitive; therefore, their comparatively small phenological advancements are likely the effect of photoperiod counterbalancing the impact of increasing temperatures. While temperature is identified as the main driver of phenological changes, precipitation also plays a crucial role in determining the onset of leaf unfolding and flowering. Phenological phases advance under dry conditions, which can be linked to the lack of transpirational cooling leading to rising temperatures, which subsequently accelerate plant growth.

Ant Communities Resist Even in Small and Isolated Gypsum Habitat Remnants in a Mediterranean Agroecosystem

Natural and seminatural habitat remnants play a crucial ecological role in intensified agroecosystems. Assumptions on the conservation value of small and poorly connected fragments in a hostile matrix come from generalization obtained from a limited number of taxa, mostly plants, and vertebrates. To date, few studies have analyzed the effect of fragmentation on ant communities in Mediterranean agroecosystems, despite the importance of this group of animals on several key ecosystem functions and services. Here, we analyze the effects of fragment area and connectivity on ant communities in gypsum outcrops in a large cereal agroecosystem of Central Spain. Ant communities were described by their species composition, abundance (total number of occurrences), and number of species, standardized both by area (species density), and abundance (species richness). Observed number of species was relatively high in comparison with other studies in the Mediterranean, and we found no effects of fragment characteristics on species density, species richness and species composition, which implies that even small and isolated patches do have a value for ant conservation. Moreover, total number of occurrences were higher for smaller and more isolated fragments. This finding contrasts with the results reported for other taxa in similar gypsum habitats and suggests that certain ant traits and strategies make them particularly resistant to fragmentation and capable to take advantage of small habitat patches. Given the important ecological role played by ants, we recommend the preservation of these small habitat fragments in the management plans of agroecosystems in these drylands, especially in those cases in which intensification of agricultural practices greatly diminish natural habitat availability.

Review: Plant eco-evolutionary responses to climate change: Emerging directions

Contemporary climate change is exposing plant populations to novel combinations of temperatures, drought stress, [CO₂] and other abiotic and biotic conditions. These changes are rapidly disrupting the evolutionary dynamics of plants. Despite the multifactorial nature of climate change, most studies typically manipulate only one climatic factor. In this opinion piece, we explore how climate change factors interact with each other and with biotic pressures to alter evolutionary processes. We evaluate the ramifications of climate change across life history stages,and examine how mating system variation influences population persistence under rapid environmental change. Furthermore, we discuss how spatial and temporal mismatches between plants and their mutualists and antagonists could affect adaptive responses to climate change. For example, plant-virus interactions vary from highly pathogenic to mildly facilitative, and are partly mediated by temperature, moisture availability and [CO₂]. Will host plants exposed to novel, stressful abiotic conditions be more susceptible to viral pathogens? Finally, we propose novel experimental approaches that could illuminate how plants will cope with unprecedented global change, such as resurrection studies combined with experimental evolution, genomics or epigenetics.

Habitat fragmentation and population features differently affect fruit predation, fecundity and offspring performance in a non-specialist gypsum plant

The effects of habitat fragmentation on plant populations are complex, as it might disrupt many ecological processes, including plant reproduction and plant-animal interactions. Gypsum specialist plants may be resilient to fragmentation due to their evolutionary history in fragmented landscapes, but the effects on non-specialist plants occurring in gypsum are unknown. We conducted a study focusing on different aspects of the reproductive cycle of Astragalus incanus subsp. incanus, a plant facultatively linked to gypsum soils. We focused on plant fecundity and pre-dispersal predation, obtained from field observations, and offspring performance, assessed in a common garden. Beyond fragment size and connectivity, we also considered habitat quality, population size and density and plant size as predictors. Fragment size and connectivity had no effect on plant fecundity, but jointly determined fruit predation, while fragment size was positively related to offspring growth. Population density, rather than population size, had a positive effect on predation but negatively affected plant fecundity and offspring performance. Habitat quality reduced both plant fecundity and predation incidence. In this non-specialist species, habitat fragmentation, population features and habitat quality affect different facets of plant performance. Predation was the only process clearly affected by fragmentation variables, fecundity mainly depended on population features and offspring performance and was better explained by mother plant identity. Our results show the need to consider habitat and population features together with fragment size and connectivity in order to assess the effects of fragmentation. Importantly, these effects can involve different aspects of plant reproduction, including plant-animal interactions.

Plant adaptation to climate change - Where are we?

Climate change poses critical challenges for population persistence in natural communities, agriculture and environmental sustainability, and food security. In this review, we discuss recent progress in climatic adaptation in plants. We evaluate whether climate change exerts novel selection and disrupts local adaptation, whether gene flow can facilitate adaptive responses to climate change, and if adaptive phenotypic plasticity could sustain populations in the short term. Furthermore, we discuss how climate change influences species interactions. Through a more in-depth understanding of these eco-evolutionary dynamics, we will increase our capacity to predict the adaptive potential of plants under climate change. In addition, we review studies that dissect the genetic basis of plant adaptation to climate change. Finally, we highlight key research gaps, ranging from validating gene function, to elucidating molecular mechanisms, expanding research systems from model species to other natural species, testing the fitness consequences of alleles in natural environments, and designing multifactorial studies that more closely reflect the complex and interactive effects of multiple climate change factors. By leveraging interdisciplinary tools (e.g., cutting-edge omics toolkits, novel ecological strategies, newly-developed genome editing technology), researchers can more accurately predict the probability that species can persist through this rapid and intense period of environmental change, as well as cultivate crops to withstand climate change, and conserve biodiversity in natural systems.

Population dynamics of small endotherms under global change: Greater white-toothed shrews Crocidura russula in Mediterranean habitats

Small endotherms would be especially exposed to main global change drivers (habitat and climate changes) but would also be able to withstand them by adjusting population dynamics locally to changing climate- and habitat-driven food and predation conditions. We analyse the relative importance of changes in climate (mean and variability, including relevant time-lags) and habitat conditions on the abundance, age structure and growth rate of Mediterranean populations of a small endotherm, the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula, along a 10-year period (2008-2017). Habitat type and season were the key factors shaping shrew population dynamics, which showed consistent peak numbers in open habitats in autumn, after the spring-summer reproductive period. Significant increases in aridity (increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall) along the study period did not explain variation in shrew numbers, although short-term variations in abundance were negatively related to relative air humidity and temperature over three last months prior to the surveys. Overall, ongoing climate change have not yet affected shrew population dynamics in its core areas of the Mediterranean region, in spite of expectations based on climate change rate in this region and small endotherm sensitivity to these changes. Reliance on open habitats with lower predation pressure would explain the resilience of shrew populations to climate change. However, current trends of land use change (land abandonment and afforestation) threaten Mediterranean open habitats, so that resilience would not last for long if these trends are not counteracted.

Selfing and Drought-Stress Strategies Under Water Deficit for Two Herbaceous Species in the South American Andes

Angiosperms are highly diverse in their reproductive systems, including predominantly selfing, exclusive outcrossing, and mixed mating systems. Even though selfing can have negative consequences on natural populations, it has been proposed that plants having a predominantly selfing strategy are also associated with fast development strategies through time limitation mechanisms that allow them to complete their life cycle before the onset of severe drought. This relationship might be affected by the challenges imposed by global change, such as a decrease in pollinator availability and the earlier and more severe onset of droughts. In this work, our aim was to investigate whether selfing is correlated with a dehydration avoidance strategy, and how this could affect drought resistance and survival in two species with different types of selfing: pollinator-independent delayed selfing (Schizanthus grahamii) and pollinator-dependent selfing (Schizanthus hookeri), representing a gradient in selfing rates. We hypothesize that delayed selfing species and highly selfing populations will show "fast" plant traits whereas we will find no pattern in more outcrossed populations of the pollinator-dependent species. However, we predicted that high selfing populations would have lower survival rates when exposed to chronic drought early in their development since fast traits imply physiological compromises that will affect their drought survival. To evaluate these hypotheses, we characterized different physiological and morphological traits in response to two contrasting treatments (moist and dry) in a total of six populations of the two species. We found a relationship between the delayed selfing species and a dehydration avoidance strategy and also with low drought survival. Our work offers evidence to support the importance of abiotic factors, such as drought, on the possible variation in selfing rates on natural populations, and the effect that this mating system could have in their ability to face new environmental conditions such as those imposed by climate change.

Dynamics of Forest Fragmentation and Connectivity Using Particle and Fractal Analysis

The ever decreasing area of forests has lead to environmental and economical challenges and has brought with it a renewed interest in developing methodologies that quantify the extent of deforestation and reforestation. In this study we analyzed the deforested areas of the Apuseni Mountains, which has been under economic pressure in recent years and resulted in widespread deforestation as a means of income. Deforested surface dynamics modeling was based on images contained in the Global Forest Database, provided by the Department of Geographical Sciences at Maryland University between 2000 and 2014. The results of the image particle analysis and modelling were based on Total Area (ha), Count of patches and Average Size whereas deforested area distribution was based on the Local Connected Fractal Dimension, Fractal Fragmentation Index and Tug-of-War Lacunarity as indicators of forest fragmentation or heterogeneity. The major findings of the study indicated a reduction of the tree cover area by 3.8%, an increase in fragmentation of 17.7% and an increase in heterogeneity by 29%, while fractal connectivity decreased only by 0.1%. The fractal and particle analysis showed a clustering of forest loss areas with an average increase from 1.1 to 3.0 ha per loss site per year. In conclusion, the fractal and particle analysis provide a relevant methodological framework to further our understanding of the spatial effects of economic pressure on forestry.

Four climate change scenarios for Gypsophila bermejoi G. López (Caryophyllaceae) to address whether bioclimatic and soil suitability will overlap in the future

Climate change has altered the global distribution of many species. Accordingly, we have assessed here the potential shift in the distribution of Gypsophila bermejoi G. López under distinct scenarios of future climate change, this being a species endemic to the Iberian Peninsula. For strict gypsophiles, climatic changes affecting their potential area of distribution could be critical if the new range is not overlapped with suitable soils. Thus, the narrow bioclimatic niche and the endemic nature of this plant could make this species particularly vulnerable to climate change. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method to study the potential distribution of this taxon under four different scenarios of climate change, pin-pointing relevant changes in the potential distribution of this plant and enabling possible future areas of refuge to be assessed. Such scenarios are defined according to four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [, which represent different trends in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide. As a result, we predict notable changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi, and the overlap between soil and bioclimatic suitability would be affected. We also used a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to model the bioclimatic niche of this species, comparing it with that of its parental taxa. The evolution of bioclimatic suitability was assessed at the current locations of G. bermejoi and as this plant is a strict gypsophile, we generated suitability maps for sites with gypsum soils. Ultimately, this study identifies relevant changes in the potential distribution of G. bermejoi under specific climatic scenarios, observing remarkable differences in the outcomes of the different climate change scenarios. Interestingly, in some scenarios the bioclimatic suitability of G. bermejoi will be enhanced at many locations and even in the worst scenario some possible refuge areas were identified. G. bermejoi behaves more like a hardy survivor than as early victim.

Habitat fragmentation is linked to cascading effects on soil functioning and CO2 emissions in Mediterranean holm-oak-forests

We studied key mechanisms and drivers of soil functioning by analyzing soil respiration and enzymatic activity in Mediterranean holm oak forest fragments with different influence of the agricultural matrix. For this, structural equation models (SEM) were built including data on soil abiotic (moisture, temperature, organic matter, pH, nutrients), biotic (microbial biomass, bacterial and fungal richness), and tree-structure-related (basal area) as explanatory variables of soil enzymatic activity and respiration. Our results show that increased tree growth induced by forest fragmentation in scenarios of high agricultural matrix influence triggered a cascade of causal-effect relations, affecting soil functioning. On the one hand, soil enzymatic activity was strongly stimulated by the abiotic (changes in pH and microclimate) and biotic (microbial biomass) modifications of the soil environment arising from the increased tree size and subsequent soil organic matter accumulation. Soil CO₂ emissions (soil respiration), which integrate releases from all the biological activity occurring in soils (autotrophic and heterotrophic components), were mainly affected by the abiotic (moisture, temperature) modifications of the soil environment caused by trees. These results, therefore, suggest that the increasing fragmentation of forests may profoundly impact the functioning of the plant-soil-microbial system, with important effects over soil CO₂ emissions and nutrient cycling at the ecosystem level. Forest fragmentation is thus revealed as a key albeit neglected factor for accurate estimations of soil carbon dynamics under global change scenarios.

Landscape effects on pollination networks in Mediterranean gypsum islands

Habitat fragmentation is a major driver of global change that has operated historically on Mediterranean ecosystems. However, more needs to be understood about how fragmentation influences ecological interactions, particularly pollination. Gypsum outcrops are historically fragmented Mediterranean habitats and settings for the evolution of many endangered soil-specialist plants with narrow ranges. In this study, we aimed to determine how fragmentation (area and connectivity) affects: (i) pollinator community composition and (ii) structural properties of pollination networks; and whether there are differences in the effects of fragmentation on: (iii) the number of interactions and visits among pollinator functional groups; and (iv) the number of interactions and specialisation degree between soil-specialist and soil-generalist plants. We characterised the degree of fragmentation and the pollination network structures in 12 gypsum habitat fragments embedded in a cropland matrix during two consecutive years. We found significant relationships between fragmentation and network structure. The effects of fragmentation differed among pollinator functional groups, but not between soil-specialist and soil-generalist plants, in terms of number of interactions. However, the relatively higher pollinator specialisation of soil-specialist plants suggested greater dependence on pollinators. Inter-annual variations in the network structures demonstrated the importance of temporal replication. The observed patterns related to the landscape structure and pollination at both the network and species levels provide insights into the key ecological processes in gypsum islands. These findings may help to identify the potential drivers of species persistence, especially for endangered soil-specialist plants with narrow ranges in a changing scenario with exacerbated habitat fragmentation.

How does climate change affect regeneration of Mediterranean high-mountain plants? An integration and synthesis of current knowledge

Mediterranean mountains are extraordinarily diverse and hold a high proportion of endemic plants, but they are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and most species distribution models project drastic changes in community composition. Retrospective studies and long-term monitoring also highlight that Mediterranean high-mountain plants are suffering severe range contractions. The aim of this work is to review the current knowledge of climate change impacts on the process of plant regeneration by seed in Mediterranean high-mountain plants, by combining available information from observational and experimental studies. We also discuss some processes that may provide resilience against changing environmental conditions and suggest some research priorities for the future. With some exceptions, there is still little evidence of the direct effects of climate change on pollination and reproductive success of Mediterranean high-mountain plants, and most works are observational and/or centred only in the post-dispersal stages (germination and establishment). The great majority of studies agree that the characteristic summer drought and the extreme heatwaves, which are projected to be more intense in the future, are the most limiting factors for the regeneration process. However, there is an urgent need for studies combining elevational gradient approaches with experimental manipulations of temperature and drought to confirm the magnitude and variability of species' responses. There is also limited knowledge about the ability of Mediterranean high-mountain plants to cope with climate change through phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation processes. This could be achieved by performing common garden and reciprocal translocation experiments with species differing in life history traits.

How might edaphic specialists in gypsum islands respond to climate change? Reciprocal sowing experiment to infer local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity are considered key mechanisms for coping with climate warming, especially for plant species that inhabit island-like habitats. In Spain a complete guild of edaphic specialists, most of them threatened, occurs in gypsum outcrops, but how these species will respond to climate change has received little attention.

METHODS

A reciprocal sowing experiment was performed to determine the extent of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity in five gypsophytes with contrasting distributions along a climate gradient. Germination, seedling growth and survival were recorded during a 4-year period.

KEY RESULTS

Plants responded plastically according to their positions along the regional climate gradient, as well as locally between matched locations. All species exhibited highly plastic responses and stress-tolerant behaviours, especially in terms of seedling survival during summer drought. However, no evidence of local adaptation was detected in any of the locations, where local individuals never performed better than those from other sites. In some sites, both germination and seedling recruitment were higher irrespective of parent plant origin.

CONCLUSIONS

The lack of local adaptation to drought displayed at the regeneration stage indicates limited capacity for in situ genetic response to new climate scenarios. Nevertheless, a plastic response along the climatic gradient does suggest a wider species-level capacity to enable these edaphic specialists to cope with increasing aridity over coming decades.

Habitat Fragmentation Differentially Affects Genetic Variation, Phenotypic Plasticity and Survival in Populations of a Gypsum Endemic

Habitat fragmentation, i.e., fragment size and isolation, can differentially alter patterns of neutral and quantitative genetic variation, fitness and phenotypic plasticity of plant populations, but their effects have rarely been tested simultaneously. We assessed the combined effects of size and connectivity on these aspects of genetic and phenotypic variation in populations of Centaurea hyssopifolia, a narrow endemic gypsophile that previously showed performance differences associated with fragmentation. We grew 111 maternal families sampled from 10 populations that differed in their fragment size and connectivity in a common garden, and characterized quantitative genetic variation, phenotypic plasticity to drought for key functional traits, and plant survival, as a measure of population fitness. We also assessed neutral genetic variation within and among populations using eight microsatellite markers. Although C. hyssopifolia is a narrow endemic gypsophile, we found substantial neutral genetic variation and quantitative variation for key functional traits. The partition of genetic variance indicated that a higher proportion of variation was found within populations, which is also consistent with low population differentiation in molecular markers, functional traits and their plasticity. This, combined with the generally small effect of habitat fragmentation suggests that gene flow among populations is not restricted, despite large differences in fragment size and isolation. Importantly, population's similarities in genetic variation and plasticity did not reflect the lower survival observed in isolated populations. Overall, our results indicate that, although the species consists of genetically variable populations able to express functional plasticity, such aspects of adaptive potential may not always reflect populations' survival. Given the differential effects of habitat connectivity on functional traits, genetic variation and fitness, our study highlights the need to shift the focus of fragmentation studies to the mechanisms that regulate connectivity effects, and call for caution on the use of genetic variation and plasticity to forecast population performance.

Effects of season and population size on pollination and reproductive output in a Mediterranean shrub

Pollinator guilds may change throughout extended flowering periods, affecting plant reproductive output, especially in seasonal climates. We hypothesised a seasonal shift in pollinator guild and an autumn reduction in pollinator abundance, especially in small and sparse populations. We recorded pollinator identity, abundance and behaviour in relation to flower density from plant to population throughout the extended flowering of Ononis tridentata. We evaluated female reproductive output by recording pollination success and pre-dispersal seed predation in eight populations of contrasting size and density. Offspring quality was also characterised through seed weight and germination. A diverse guild of insects visited O. tridentata in spring, while only Apis mellifera was observed in autumn. Visitation frequency did not vary seasonally, but the number of flowers per foraging bout was lower, and seeds were heavier and had a higher germination rate in autumn. Plant and neighbourhood flowering display were not related to pollinator visitation frequency or behaviour. However, the rate of fertilised ovules, seed set and autumn flowering display size were positively related to population density. The maintenance of pollination in autumn enhances the reproductive performance of O. tridentata due to higher quality of autumn seed, and to a large reduction in seed predator pressure. We also suggest that observed changes in pollinator behaviour could be one of the processes behind seasonal variation in seed performance, since geitonogamous crosses were less likely to occur in autumn.

Plant fitness in a rapidly changing world

Modern reliance on fossil fuels has ushered in extreme temperatures globally and abnormal precipitation patterns in many regions. Although the climate is changing rapidly, other agents of natural selection such as photoperiod remain constant. This decoupling of previously reliable environmental cues shifts adaptive landscapes, favors novel suites of traits and likely increases the extinction risk of local populations. Here, I examine the fitness consequences of changing climates. Meta-analyses demonstrate that simulated future climates depress viability and fecundity components of fitness for native plant species in the short term, which could reduce population growth rates. Contracting populations that cannot adapt or adjust plastically to new climates might not be capable of producing sufficient migrants to track changing conditions.

Nitrogen supply modulates the effect of changes in drying-rewetting frequency on soil C and N cycling and greenhouse gas exchange

Climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition are two of the most important global change drivers. However, the interactions of these drivers have not been well studied. We aimed to assess how the combined effect of soil N additions and more frequent soil drying-rewetting events affects carbon (C) and N cycling, soil:atmosphere greenhouse gas (GHG) exchange, and functional microbial diversity. We manipulated the frequency of soil drying-rewetting events in soils from ambient and N-treated plots in a temperate forest and calculated the Orwin & Wardle Resistance index to compare the response of the different treatments. Increases in drying-rewetting cycles led to reductions in soil NO3- levels, potential net nitrification rate, and soil : atmosphere GHG exchange, and increases in NH4+ and total soil inorganic N levels. N-treated soils were more resistant to changes in the frequency of drying-rewetting cycles, and this resistance was stronger for C- than for N-related variables. Both the long-term N addition and the drying-rewetting treatment altered the functionality of the soil microbial population and its functional diversity. Our results suggest that increasing the frequency of drying-rewetting cycles can affect the ability of soil to cycle C and N and soil : atmosphere GHG exchange and that the response to this increase is modulated by soil N enrichment.

Fragment size does not matter when you are well connected: effects of fragmentation on fitness of coexisting gypsophiles

Most habitat fragmentation studies have focused on the effects of population size on reproductive success of single species, but studies assessing the effects of both fragment size and connectivity, and their interaction, on several coexisting species are rare. In this study, we selected 20 fragments along two continuous gradients of size and degree of isolation in a gypsum landscape in central Spain. In each fragment, we selected 15 individuals of each of three dominant gypsophiles (Centaurea hyssopifolia, Lepidium subulatum and Helianthemum squamatum, 300 plants per species, 900 plants in total) and measured several reproductive traits: inflorescence number, fruit set, seed set and seed mass. We hypothesised that plant fitness would be lower on small and isolated fragments due to an interaction between fragment size and connectivity, and that response patterns would be species-specific. Overall, fragment size had very little effect on reproductive traits compared to that of connectivity. We observed a positive effect of fragment connectivity on C. hyssopifolia fitness, mediated by the increased seed predation in plants from isolated fragments, resulting in fewer viable seeds per capitulum and lower seed set. Furthermore, seed mass was lower in plants from isolated fragments for both C. hyssopifolia and L. subulatum. In contrast, few reproductive traits of H. squamatum were affected by habitat fragmentation. We discuss the implications of species-specific responses to habitat fragmentation for the dynamics and conservation of gypsum plant communities. Our results highlight the complex interplay among plants and their mutualistic and antagonistic visitors, and reinforce the often-neglected role of habitat connectivity as a key component of the fragmentation process.

Functional traits variation explains the distribution of Aextoxicon punctatum (Aextoxicaceae) in pronounced moisture gradients within fog-dependent forest fragments

Climate change and fragmentation are major threats to world forests. Understanding how functional traits related to drought tolerance change across small-scale, pronounced moisture gradients in fragmented forests is important to predict species' responses to these threats. In the case of Aextoxicon punctatum, a dominant canopy tree in fog-dependent rain forest patches in semiarid Chile, we explored how the magnitude, variability and correlation patterns of leaf and xylem vessel traits and hydraulic conductivity varied across soil moisture (SM) gradients established within and among forest patches of different size, which are associated with differences in tree establishment and mortality patterns. Leaf traits varied across soil-moisture gradients produced by fog interception. Trees growing at drier leeward edges showed higher leaf mass per area, trichome and stomatal density than trees from the wetter core and windward zones. In contrast, xylem vessel traits (vessels diameter and density) did not vary producing loss of hydraulic conductivity at drier leeward edges. We also detected higher levels of phenotypic integration and variability at leeward edges. The ability of A. punctatum to modify leaf traits in response to differences in SM availability established over short distances (<500 m) facilitates its persistence in contrasting microhabitats within forest patches. However, xylem anatomy showed limited plasticity, which increases cavitation risk at leeward edges. Greater patch fragmentation, together with fluctuations in irradiance and SM in small patches, could result in higher risk of drought-related tree mortality, with profound impacts on hydrological balances at the ecosystem scale.

Different intra- and interspecific facilitation mechanisms between two Mediterranean trees under a climate change scenario

In harsh environments facilitation alleviates biotic and abiotic constraints on tree recruitment. Under ongoing drier climate change, we expect facilitation to increase as a driver of coexistence. However, this might not hold under extreme abiotic stress and when the outcome depends on the interaction with other drivers such as altered herbivore pressure due to land use change. We performed a field water-manipulation experiment to quantify the importance of facilitation in two coexisting Mediterranean trees (dominant Juniperus thurifera and coexisting Quercus ilex subsp. ballota) under a climate change scenario. Shifts in canopy dominance favouring Q. ilex could be based on the extension of heterospecific facilitation to the detriment of conspecific alleviation. We found that saplings of both species transplanted under the canopy of nurse trees had greater survival probability, growth and photochemical efficiency. Intra- and interspecific facilitation mechanisms differed: alleviation of abiotic stress benefited both species during summer and J. thurifera during winter, whereas browsing protection was relevant only for Q. ilex. Facilitation was greater under the dry treatment only for Q. ilex, which partially agreed with the predictions of the stress gradient hypothesis. We conclude that present rainfall availability limits neither J. thurifera nor Q. ilex establishment. Nevertheless, under current global change scenarios, imposing increasing abiotic stress together with altered herbivore browsing, nurse trees could differentially facilitate the establishment of Q. ilex due to species-specific traits, i.e. palatability; drought, heat and cold tolerance, underlying species differences in the facilitation mechanisms and eventually triggering a change from pure juniper woodlands to mixed formations.

Clonal growth and plant species abundance

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Both regional and local plant abundances are driven by species' dispersal capacities and their abilities to exploit new habitats and persist there. These processes are affected by clonal growth, which is difficult to evaluate and compare across large numbers of species. This study assessed the influence of clonal reproduction on local and regional abundances of a large set of species and compared the predictive power of morphologically defined traits of clonal growth with data on actual clonal growth from a botanical garden. The role of clonal growth was compared with the effects of seed reproduction, habitat requirements and growth, proxied both by LHS (leaf-height-seed) traits and by actual performance in the botanical garden.

METHODS

Morphological parameters of clonal growth, actual clonal reproduction in the garden and LHS traits (leaf-specific area - height - seed mass) were used as predictors of species abundance, both regional (number of species records in the Czech Republic) and local (mean species cover in vegetation records) for 836 perennial herbaceous species. Species differences in habitat requirements were accounted for by classifying the dataset by habitat type and also by using Ellenberg indicator values as covariates.

KEY RESULTS

After habitat differences were accounted for, clonal growth parameters explained an important part of variation in species abundance, both at regional and at local levels. At both levels, both greater vegetative growth in cultivation and greater lateral expansion trait values were correlated with higher abundance. Seed reproduction had weaker effects, being positive at the regional level and negative at the local level.

CONCLUSIONS

Morphologically defined traits are predictive of species abundance, and it is concluded that simultaneous investigation of several such traits can help develop hypotheses on specific processes (e.g. avoidance of self-competition, support of offspring) potentially underlying clonal growth effects on abundance. Garden performance parameters provide a practical approach to assessing the roles of clonal growth morphological traits (and LHS traits) for large sets of species.

Plant species richness and ecosystem multifunctionality in global drylands

Experiments suggest that biodiversity enhances the ability of ecosystems to maintain multiple functions, such as carbon storage, productivity, and the buildup of nutrient pools (multifunctionality). However, the relationship between biodiversity and multifunctionality has never been assessed globally in natural ecosystems. We report here on a global empirical study relating plant species richness and abiotic factors to multifunctionality in drylands, which collectively cover 41% of Earth's land surface and support over 38% of the human population. Multifunctionality was positively and significantly related to species richness. The best-fitting models accounted for over 55% of the variation in multifunctionality and always included species richness as a predictor variable. Our results suggest that the preservation of plant biodiversity is crucial to buffer negative effects of climate change and desertification in drylands.

Experimental warming alters spring phenology of certain plant functional groups in an early-successional forest community

Experimental study of the effects of projected climate change on plant phenology allows us to isolate effects of warming on life history events such as leaf out. We simulated a 2°C temperature increase and 20% precipitation increase in a recently harvested temperate deciduous forest community in central Pennsylvania, USA, and observed the leaf out phenology of all species in 2009 and 2010. Over 130 plant species were monitored weekly in study plots, but due to high variability in species composition among plots, species were grouped into five functional groups: short forbs, tall forbs, shrubs, small trees, and large trees. Tall forbs and large trees, which usually emerge in the late spring, advanced leaf out 14-18 days in response to warming. Short forbs, shrubs, and small trees emerge early in spring and did not alter their phenology in response to warming or increased precipitation treatments. Earlier leaf out of tall forbs and large trees coincided with almost three weeks of increased community-level leaf area index (LAI), indicating greater competition and a condensed spring green-up period. While phenology of large trees and tall forbs appears to be strongly influenced by temperature-based growth cues, our results suggest that photoperiod and chilling cues more strongly influence the leaf out of other functional groups. Reduced freeze events and warmer temperatures from predicted climate change will interact with non-temperature growth cues to have cascading consequences throughout the ecosystem.

Global change and the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in plants

Global change drivers create new environmental scenarios and selective pressures, affecting plant species in various interacting ways. Plants respond with changes in phenology, physiology, and reproduction, with consequences for biotic interactions and community composition. We review information on phenotypic plasticity, a primary means by which plants cope with global change scenarios, recommending promising approaches for investigating the evolution of plasticity and describing constraints to its evolution. We discuss the important but largely ignored role of phenotypic plasticity in range shifts and review the extensive literature on invasive species as models of evolutionary change in novel environments. Plasticity can play a role both in the short-term response of plant populations to global change as well as in their long-term fate through the maintenance of genetic variation. In new environmental conditions, plasticity of certain functional traits may be beneficial (i.e., the plastic response is accompanied by a fitness advantage) and thus selected for. Plasticity can also be relevant in the establishment and persistence of plants in novel environments that are crucial for populations at the colonizing edge in range shifts induced by climate change. Experimental studies show taxonomically widespread plastic responses to global change drivers in many functional traits, though there is a lack of empirical support for many theoretical models on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity. Future studies should assess the adaptive value and evolutionary potential of plasticity under complex, realistic global change scenarios. Promising tools include resurrection protocols and artificial selection experiments.

Genetic Variation in Past and Current Landscapes: Conservation Implications Based on Six Endemic Florida Scrub Plants

If genetic variation is often positively correlated with population sizes and the presence of nearby populations and suitable habitats, landscape proxies could inform conservation decisions without genetic analyses. For six Florida scrub endemic plants (Dicerandra frutescens, Eryngium cuneifolium, Hypericum cumulicola, Liatris ohlingerae, Nolina brittoniana, and Warea carteri), we relate two measures of genetic variation, expected heterozygosity and alleles per polymorphic locus (APL), to population size and landscape variables. Presettlement areas were estimated based on soil preferences and GIS soils maps. Four species showed no genetic patterns related to population or landscape factors. The other two species showed significant but inconsistent patterns. ForLiatris ohlingerae, APL was negatively related to population density and weakly, positively related to remaining presettlement habitat within 32 km. ForNolina brittoniana, APL increased with population size. The rather weak effects of population area/size and both past and current landscape structures suggest that genetic variation needs to be directly measured and not inferred for conservation planning.