A synthesis of current knowledge on forests and carbon storage in the United States

Structural diversity enhances the temporal effects of thinning on carbon storage in pine-oak mixed forests

As a key silvicultural practice, thinning affects carbon storage dynamics, but the role of structural complexity, species composition, and functional traits in post-thinning recovery remains unclear. In this study, effects of structural, species, and plant trait diversity on ecosystem carbon storage (including live trees, litter, and soil) with post-thinning recovery were examined for pine-oak mixed forests in Qinling Mountains, China. We found that total carbon storage declined initially (4-year; 112.32 ± 8.51 Mg⋅ha-1) but recovered to pre-thinning levels (131.70 ± 10.34 Mg⋅ha-1 vs. 134.81 ± 9.40 Mg⋅ha-1) by 12-year. A similar trend was observed in non-spatial structural diversity (Gini coefficient of DBH), emerging as the primary mechanistic driver of carbon storage changes during recovery, which was account for up to 68 % of the variance. The variation of spatial structure (Mingling, size dominance, and uniform angle index) showed no significant influence on carbon storage. Our findings highlight managing forests for structural complexity could enhance carbon sequestration in the context of global change.

Biomass allocation, carbon content change and carbon stock distribution of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongholica) plantation forests at different stand ages and densities in the sandy area of western Liaoning Province, China

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongholica) is one of the main afforestation species in the southeastern edge of the Horqin Sandy Land, which not only effectively prevents the expansion of the sandland, but also serves as an important carbon reservoir. Uncovering the biomass allocation, carbon content changes and carbon stock distribution among organs of Scots pine at different ages and densities can provide a theoretical basis for rational afforestation and management in the western Liaoning sandy area. In this study, the biomass and carbon content of four organs, namely, trunk, branch, leaf and root, were measured at different age classes (young stage, half-mature stage, near-mature stage, mature stage and over-mature stage forests) and densities, and the carbon stock of Scots pine plantations in the western Liaoning sandy area was estimated. The results showed that the biomass of all organs except leaves increased with the increase of stand age, but the rate of increase of each organ was not consistent. To resist wind and sand, the biomass was preferentially allocated to the trunk and roots, which was in line with the theory of allometry and optimal allocation. The carbon content of each organ of Scots pine increases and then decreases with the rise of forest age classes, and the root carbon content is the lowest in five forest ages, and the plant carbon is mainly stored in the aboveground part. The biomass of each organ in both near mature and mature forests increased with the decrease in density. Still, the root carbon content decreased with the decrease of density, and the PCA analysis showed that near mature and mature forests had better carbon sequestration capacity in low density. The carbon stock of Scots pine plantation forests in the sandy area of western Liaoning was mainly concentrated in Fuxin and Chaoyang cities, and the lowest carbon stock was found in Jinzhou. The age and density of the forest stand are important factors affecting the biomass and carbon content of Scots pine, therefore, when operating Scots pine plantation forests in the sandy areas of western Liaoning, different stand densities should be retained at different age stages, so that their biomass and carbon content can be sufficiently accumulated and distributed to improve the local environment.

Policy decisions matter: Cessation of logging benefits 34 threatened species in Victoria, Australia

In January 2024, the Australian state of Victoria committed to ending native forest logging six years ahead of schedule, a decision that has been advocated for by scientists and conservationists for decades. However, the direct benefits for threatened species from this policy change has not been quantified. This study assesses the spatial overlap between areas approved for logging and the habitats of nationally listed threatened species, to estimate the potential impacts of continued logging and the likely benefits of its cessation. We found that 99% of the areas approved for logging overlapped with the habitats of nationally threatened species. On average, each logging cutblock contained habitat for eight listed species. Areas approved for logging had considerable overlap with the habitat of several threatened species, particularly the Baw Baw frog (Philoria frosti, Critically Endangered, 6.2% of habitat approved for logging), Leadbeater's possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri, Critically Endangered, 6.1%), barred galaxias (Galaxias fuscus, Endangered, 5.6%), Tall astelia (Astelia australiana, Vulnerable, 5.4%), and Colquhoun grevillea (Grevillea celata, Vulnerable, 5%). Notably, these five species are found only in Victoria, thus these values represent the proportion of their entire mapped habitat slated for logging over a short time period. Our findings underscore the need for urgent, nationwide forest protection policies, alongside restoration efforts, to support species recovery and meet global climate and biodiversity commitments.

Drivers of forest productivity in two regions of the United States: Relative impacts of management and environmental variables

Climate, environmental conditions, and management strategies are key factors affecting forest net ecosystem production (NEP). However, little is known about the relationship between management approaches and regional to continental-scale forest productivity. In this study, we utilized forests of the U.S. Southeast (SEUS) and Pacific Northwest (PNW), two ecologically and socio-politically distinct regions, to answer the question: Does management exert a stronger influence on NEP than environmental factors? We estimated Geographically Weighted Regression models of NEP derived from the Ecosystem Demography Model as a function of soil, topography, climate, and forest management practices for the period 2000-2015 using 383 and 407 10 × 10 km2 landscapes in SEUS and PNW, respectively. Results showed that forest management practices were important in predicting NEP only in mountainous northeastern areas of the SEUS; in the PNW, NEP had a more complex relationship with management and was positively related to ecological, preservation, and passive management. Management, topography, and soil were more strongly correlated with NEP in the PNW than in the SEUS, in which 81%, 83%, and 83% of PNW locations showed significant relationships with at least one management, topography, or soil variable, repectively. In contrast, seasonal precipitation and temperature were stronger predictors of NEP in the SEUS than other drivers, with 99% and 84% of the locations influenced by at least one seasonal temperature or precipitation variable, respectively. The findings of this study may provide a valuable framework for forest management - climate change strategies that could be extended across regional scales.

Environmental and social impacts of carbon sequestration

Climate change requires major mitigation efforts, mainly emission reduction. Carbon sequestration and avoided deforestation are complementary mitigation strategies that can promote nature conservation and local development but may also have undesirable impacts. We reviewed 246 articles citing impacts, risks, or concerns from carbon projects, and 78 others related to this topic. Most of the impacts cited focus on biodiversity, especially in afforestation projects, and on social effects related to avoided deforestation projects. Concerns were raised about project effectiveness, the permanence of carbon stored, and leakage. Recommendations include accounting for uncertainty, assessing both mitigation and contribution to climate change, defining permanence, creating contingency plans, promoting local projects, proposing alternative livelihoods, ensuring a fair distribution of benefits, combining timber production and carbon sequestration, ensuring sustainable development and minimizing leakage. A holistic approach that combines carbon sequestration, nature conservation, and poverty alleviation must be applied. The potential occurrence of negative impacts does not invalidate carbon projects but makes it advisable to conduct proper environmental impact assessments, considering direct and indirect impacts, minimizing the negative effects while maximizing the positive ones, and weighing the trade-offs between them to guide decision-making. Public participation and transparency are essential. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2024;20:1812-1838. © 2024 SETAC.

Forest carbon sequestration on the west coast, USA: Role of species, productivity, and stockability

Forest ecosystems store large amounts of carbon and can be important sources, or sinks, of the atmospheric carbon dioxide that is contributing to global warming. Understanding the carbon storage potential of different forests and their response to management and disturbance events are fundamental to developing policies and scenarios to partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of live tree carbon accumulation are handled differently in different models, with inconsistent results. We developed growth-and-yield style models to predict stand-level live tree carbon density as a function of stand age in all vegetation types of the coastal Pacific region, US (California, Oregon, and Washington), from 7,523 national forest inventory plots. We incorporated site productivity and stockability within the Chapman-Richards equation and tested whether intensively managed private forests behaved differently from less managed public forests. We found that the best models incorporated stockability in the equation term controlling stand carrying capacity, and site productivity in the equation terms controlling the growth rate and shape of the curve. RMSEs ranged from 10 to 137 Mg C/ha for different vegetation types. There was not a significant effect of ownership over the standard industrial rotation length (~50 yrs) for the productive Douglas-fir/western hemlock zone, indicating that differences in stockability and productivity captured much of the variation attributed to management intensity. Our models suggest that doubling the rotation length on these intensively managed lands from 35 to 70 years would result in 2.35 times more live tree carbon stored on the landscape. These findings are at odds with some studies that have projected higher carbon densities with stand age for the same vegetation types, and have not found an increase in yields (on an annual basis) with longer rotations. We suspect that differences are primarily due to the application of yield curves developed from fully-stocked, undisturbed, single-species, "normal" stands without accounting for the substantial proportion of forests that don't meet those assumptions. The carbon accumulation curves developed here can be applied directly in growth-and-yield style projection models, and used to validate the predictions of ecophysiological, cohort, or single-tree style models being used to project carbon futures for forests in the region. Our approach may prove useful for developing robust models in other forest types.

Analyzing temporal and spatial forest carbon storage using Google Plus Code: a case study of Zijin Mountain National Forest Park, China

BACKGROUND

It is always a challenging job to compare forest resources as there is not a standardized spatial unit with location information. Google Plus Code, the newest alphanumeric geocoding system, uses 20 specifically selected letters and numbers to assign a unique global ID to every cell at different levels of a hierarchical grid system which is established based on latitude and longitude. It can be used as a standardized, unique global geospatial unit to segment, locate, quantitate, evaluate, and compare natural resources with area, boundary, and location information embedded.

RESULTS

For this proof-of-concept case study, forest inventory data from 1987, 2002, and 2019 for the Zijin Mountain National Forest Park in Jiangsu Province, China was analyzed based on Google Plus Code grid/cell. This enabled the quantification of carbon storage at each cell allowing for the comparison of estimated carbon storage at same or different locations over time.

CONCLUSIONS

This methodology is used to quantify the impacts of changing forest conditions and forest management activities on carbon storage with high spatial accuracy through the 32-year study period. Furthermore, this technique could be used for providing technical support and validation of carbon credit quantification and management.

The potential use of mass timber in mid-to high-rise construction and the associated carbon benefits in the United States

Nonresidential and mid- to high-rise multifamily residential structures in the United States currently use little wood per unit floor area installed, because earlier building codes lacked provisions for structural wood use in those types of buildings. However, revisions to the International Building Code allow for increased wood use in the form of mass timber, as structural and fire safety concerns have been addressed through new science-based design standards and through newly specified construction materials and measures. This study used multiple models to describe alternative futures for new construction, mass timber adoption rates, and the associated carbon benefits in higher than three-story buildings in the United States. The use of mass timber, in place of traditional constructions (i.e., structures dominated by concrete and steel), in projected new higher than three-story buildings was shown to provide combined carbon benefits (i.e., global warming mitigation benefits), including avoided embodied carbon emissions due to the substitution of non-wood alternatives and additional biogenic carbon storage in mass timber materials, of between 9.9 and 16.5 million t CO2e/yr spanning 50 years, 2020 to 2070. These carbon benefits equate to 12% to 20% of the total U.S. harvested wood products carbon storage for 2020. Future research is needed to understand how greater mass timber adoption leads to changes in forest product markets, land use, and total forest sector carbon.

Life-cycle impact assessment of hardwood forest resources in the eastern United States

To explore the carbon sequestration potential of hardwood forests in the eastern United States, the forest vegetation simulator (FVS) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were integrated to analyze the forest carbon dynamics for the four subregions of the eastern United States: northeast (NE), mid-Atlantic (MA), southeast (SE), and north central (NC). This study quantitatively assessed current forest management practices for timber production and their associated life-cycle environmental impacts. The system boundary was selected to be consistent with the A1 module (extraction and upstream production) required by an Environmental Product Declaration (EPD) for wood products. The results indicate that uneven-aged (UA) forest management yields higher carbon stocks and growth than even-aged (EA) management across all subregions. In contrast, clearcutting under EA management results in higher carbon removal. It was found that fuel consumption-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for manual and mechanized harvesting systems for both management types ranged between 9.13 and 12.15 kg of CO2 equivalent per cubic meter (kg CO2e/m3), with an average of 11 kg CO2e/m3 of hardwood timber harvested across all subregions. It is estimated that 63-187 megajoules (MJ) of energy is needed to produce 1 m3 of hardwood sawlogs. The extraction and loading processes contributed more to the total GHG emissions than the felling and processing within the system boundary. The study concludes that UA management led to higher forest carbon and net carbon balance (excluding carbon stock) compared to EA management in the eastern U.S. hardwood forests. Forest management strategies should be determined based on the ecological goal of increasing forest carbon stock and the economic goal of maximizing revenue from the timber market. The findings of this study have implications for policymakers and forest managers in mitigating climate change and carbon sequestration through sustainable forest management for timber production.

Engineering traits through CRISPR/cas genome editing in woody species to improve forest diversity and yield

Dangers confronting forest ecosystems are many and the strength of these biological systems is deteriorating, thus substantially affecting tree physiology, phenology, and growth. The establishment of genetically engineered trees into degraded woodlands, which would be adaptive to changing climate, could help in subsiding ecological threats and bring new prospects. This should not be resisted due to the apprehension of transgene dispersal in forests. Consequently, it is important to have a deep insight into the genetic structure and phenotypic limits of the reproductive capability of tree stands/population(s) to endure tolerance and survival. Importantly, for a better understanding of genes and their functional mechanisms, gene editing (GeEd) technology is an excellent molecular tool to unravel adaptation progressions. Therefore, GeEd could be harnessed for resolving the allelic interactions for the creation of gene diversity, and transgene dispersal may be alleviated among the population or species in different bioclimatic zones around the globe. This review highlights the potential of the CRISPR/Cas tools in genomic, transcriptomic, and epigenomic-based assorted and programmable alterations of genes in trees that might be able to fix the trait-specific gene function. Also, we have discussed the application of diverse forms of GeEd to genetically improve several traits, such as wood density, phytochemical constituents, biotic and abiotic stress tolerance, and photosynthetic efficiency in trees. We believe that the technology encourages fundamental research in the forestry sector besides addressing key aspects, which might fasten tree breeding and germplasm improvement programs worldwide.

Quantifying the Effect Size of Management Actions on Aboveground Carbon Stocks in Forest Plantations

Purpose of the Review

Improved forest management is a promising avenue for climate change mitigation. However, we lack synthetic understanding of how different management actions impact aboveground carbon stocks, particularly at scales relevant for designing and implementing forest-based climate solutions. Here, we quantitatively assess and review the impacts of three common practices-application of inorganic NPK fertilizer, interplanting with N-fixing species, and thinning-on aboveground carbon stocks in plantation forests.

Recent Findings

Site-level empirical studies show both positive and negative effects of inorganic fertilization, interplanting, and thinning on aboveground carbon stocks in plantation forests. Recent findings and the results of our analysis suggest that these effects are heavily moderated by factors such as species selection, precipitation, time since practice, soil moisture regime, and previous land use. Interplanting of N-fixing crops initially has no effect on carbon storage in main tree crops, but the effect becomes positive in older stands. Conversely, the application of NPK fertilizers increases aboveground carbon stocks, though the effect lessens with time. Moreover, increases in aboveground carbon stocks may be partially or completely offset by emissions from the application of inorganic fertilizer. Thinning results in a strong reduction of aboveground carbon stocks, though the effect lessens with time.

Summary

Management practices tend to have strong directional effects on aboveground carbon stocks in plantation forests but are moderated by site-specific management, climatic, and edaphic factors. The effect sizes quantified in our meta-analysis can serve as benchmarks for the design and scoping of improved forest management projects as forest-based climate solutions. Overall, management actions can enhance the climate mitigation potential of plantation forests, if performed with sufficient attention to the nuances of local conditions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40725-023-00182-5.

New estimates of the storage permanence and ocean co-benefits of enhanced rock weathering

Avoiding many of the most severe consequences of anthropogenic climate change in the coming century will very likely require the development of "negative emissions technologies"-practices that lead to net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from Earth's atmosphere. However, feedbacks within the carbon cycle place intrinsic limits on the long-term impact of CDR on atmospheric CO₂ that are likely to vary across CDR technologies in ways that are poorly constrained. Here, we use an ensemble of Earth system models to provide new insights into the efficiency of CDR through enhanced rock weathering (ERW) by explicitly quantifying long-term storage of carbon in the ocean during ERW relative to an equivalent modulated emissions scenario. We find that although the backflux of CO₂ to the atmosphere in the face of CDR is in all cases significant and time-varying, even for direct removal and underground storage, the leakage of initially captured carbon associated with ERW is well below that currently assumed. In addition, net alkalinity addition to the surface ocean from ERW leads to significant increases in seawater carbonate mineral saturation state relative to an equivalent emissions trajectory, a co-benefit for calcifying marine organisms. These results suggest that potential carbon leakage from the oceans during ERW is a small component of the overall ERW life cycle and that it can be rigorously quantified and incorporated into technoeconomic assessments of ERW at scale.

A life cycle and product type based estimator for quantifying the carbon stored in wood products

BACKGROUND

Timber harvesting and industrial wood processing laterally transfer the carbon stored in forest sectors to wood products creating a wood products carbon pool. The carbon stored in wood products is allocated to end-use wood products (e.g., paper, furniture), landfill, and charcoal. Wood products can store substantial amounts of carbon and contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse effects. Therefore, accurate accounts for the size of wood products carbon pools for different regions are essential to estimating the land-atmosphere carbon exchange by using the bottom-up approach of carbon stock change.

RESULTS

To quantify the carbon stored in wood products, we developed a state-of-the-art estimator (Wood Products Carbon Storage Estimator, WPsCS Estimator) that includes the wood products disposal, recycling, and waste wood decomposition processes. The wood products carbon pool in this estimator has three subpools: (1) end-use wood products, (2) landfill, and (3) charcoal carbon. In addition, it has a user-friendly interface, which can be used to easily parameterize and calibrate an estimation. To evaluate its performance, we applied this estimator to account for the carbon stored in wood products made from the timber harvested in Maine, USA, and the carbon storage of wood products consumed in the United States.

CONCLUSION

The WPsCS Estimator can efficiently and easily quantify the carbon stored in harvested wood products for a given region over a specific period, which was demonstrated with two illustrative examples. In addition, WPsCS Estimator has a user-friendly interface, and all parameters can be easily modified.

Bacterial community in soil and tree roots of Picea abies shows little response to clearcutting

Clearcutting represents a standard management practice in temperate forests with dramatic consequences for the forest ecosystem. The removal of trees responsible for the bulk of primary production can result in a complex response of the soil microbiome. While studies have shown that tree root-symbiotic ectomycorrhizal fungi disappear from soil and decomposing fine roots of trees become a hotspot for fungal decomposition, the fate of the bacterial component of the soil microbiome following clearcutting is unclear. Here, we investigated the response of bacterial community composition for 2 years following clearcutting of a Picea abies stand in soil, rhizosphere and tree roots, by 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing. While in the first few months after clearcutting there was no significant response of bacterial community composition in the rhizosphere and soil, bacterial communities associated with tree roots underwent more profound changes over time. Acidobacteria were abundant in rhizosphere and soil, while Firmicutes were strongly represented in the roots. In addition, bacterial communities on decomposing roots were significantly different from those on pre-clearcut live roots. Compared with fungi, the response of bacterial communities to clearcutting was much less pronounced, indicating independent development of the two microbial domains.

Carbon Sink under Different Carbon Density Levels of Forest and Shrub, a Case in Dongting Lake Basin, China

Terrestrial ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle and climate change mitigation. Studying the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon sink and the driving mechanisms at the regional scale provides an important basis for ecological restoration and ecosystem management. Taking the Dongting Lake Basin as an example, we assessed the carbon sinks of forest and shrub from 2000 to 2020 based on the maps of biomass that were obtained by remote sensing, and analyzed the dynamics of carbon sinks that were contributed by different biomass carbon density levels of constant forest and shrub and new afforestation over the past two decades. The results showed that the carbon sink of forest and shrub in the Dongting Lake Basin grew rapidly from 2000 to 2020: carbon sink increased from 64.64 TgC between 2000 and 2010, to 382.56 TgC between 2010 and 2020. The continuous improvement of biomass carbon density has made a major contribution to carbon sink, especially the carbon density increase in low carbon density forests and shrubs. Carbon-dense forests and shrubs realized their contribution to carbon sink in the second decade after displaying negative carbon sink in the first decade. Carbon sink from new afforestation increased 61.16% from the first decade to the second decade, but the contribution proportion decreased. The overall low carbon density of forest and shrub in the Dongting Lake Basin and their carbon sink dynamics indicated their huge carbon sequestration potential in the future. In addition to continuously implementing forest protection and restoration projects to promote afforestation, the improvement of ecosystem quality should be paid more attention in ecosystem management for areas like Dongting Lake Basin, where ecosystems, though severely degraded, are important and fragile, to realize their huge carbon sequestration potential.

Tree species composition, growing stock and biomass carbon dynamics of the major timber species in Hindu Kush regions of Pakistan

Using inventory data, this study evaluates the species composition, growing stock volume (GSV), and biomass carbon (BMC) of the five major timber species in the sub-tropical, and temperate/sub-alpine regions of Pakistan. It was found that the stem density varies between 50 and 221 trees ha -1, with a mean of 142 trees ha-1 (13.68 million trees for entire forest area). Among the species, Pinus wallichiana showed a high species composition (27.80%) followed by Picea smithiana (24.64%). The GSV was found in the range of 67.81 to 425.94 m3 ha-1, with a total GSV value of 20.68 million m3 for the entire region. Similarly, The BMC ranged from 27.04 to 169.86 Mg ha-1, with a mean BMC value of 86.80 Mg ha-1. The total amount of stored carbon was found at 8.69 million tons for a total of 95842 ha of commercially managed forest. Furthermore, the correlation analysis between the basal area (BA) and GSV and BMC showed that BA is the best predictor of GSV and BMC. The findings provide insights to the policy makers and forest managers regarding the sustainable commercial forest management as well as forest carbon management in the recent global carbon management for climate change mitigation.

Thinning and Gap Harvest Effects on Soil, Tree and Stand Characteristics in Hybrid Poplar Bioenergy Buffers on Farmland

Linear bioenergy buffers planted with fast-growing trees along field edges are increasingly used to address challenges related to sustainable biomass production, climate change mitigation (i.e., carbon storage and microclimate regulation), water quality protection, and forest habitat connectivity in agricultural landscapes. This study assessed: (1) the extent to which 15 m wide hybrid poplar bioenergy buffers (1666 stems/ha) with closed canopy responded to thinning (diamond pattern of tree removal); (2) the regrowth of poplars from cut stumps following gap harvesting; (3) the effects of harvesting treatments on soil microclimate and nutrient availability; and (4) the spatiotemporal pattern of tree growth in unthinned plots. After three post-thinning years, results showed a strong growth response of seven-year-old hybrid poplar trees to thinning (12% increase in diameter and 30% increase in individual stem volume), accompanied by a slight decline in stand productivity. Gap harvesting was not an effective treatment to regenerate the stand from shoots growing from cut stumps because of the high deer browsing. Overall, thinning had marginal effects on soil nutrients and microclimate, compared with gap harvesting, which increased soil temperature, soil moisture, and the availability of several macro and micronutrients. However, harvest effects on soil nutrients were mostly observed during the first postharvest year, with the exception of soil nitrate, which was lowest in the gap treatment during the second postharvest year. Finally, the spatial pattern observed in tree growth between the buffer rows suggests that other more operational thinning patterns (row or corridor thinning) need to be evaluated in linear buffers.

Climate Drives Modeled Forest Carbon Cycling Resistance and Resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and it's highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Regional Assessment of Carbon Pool Response to Intensive Silvicultural Practices in Loblolly Pine Plantations

Tree plantations represent an important component of the global carbon (C) cycle and are expected to increase in prevalence during the 21st century. We examined how silvicultural approaches that optimize economic returns in loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantations affected the accumulation of C in pools of vegetation, detritus, and mineral soil up to 100 cm across the loblolly pine’s natural range in the southeastern United States. Comparisons of silvicultural treatments included competing vegetation or ‘weed’ control, fertilization, thinning, and varying intensities of silvicultural treatment for 106 experimental plantations and 322 plots. The average age of the sampled plantations was 17 years, and the C stored in vegetation (pine and understory) averaged 82.1 ± 3.0 (±std. error) Mg C ha−1, and 14.3 ± 0.6 Mg C ha−1 in detrital pools (soil organic layers, coarse-woody debris, and soil detritus). Mineral soil C (0–100 cm) averaged 79.8 ± 4.6 Mg C ha−1 across sites. For management effects, thinning reduced vegetation by 35.5 ± 1.2 Mg C ha−1 for all treatment combinations. Weed control and fertilization increased vegetation between 2.3 and 5.7 Mg C ha−1 across treatment combinations, with high intensity silvicultural applications producing greater vegetation C than low intensity (increase of 21.4 ± 1.7 Mg C ha−1). Detrital C pools were negatively affected by thinning where either fertilization or weed control were also applied, and were increased with management intensity. Mineral soil C did not respond to any silvicultural treatments. From these data, we constructed regression models that summarized the C accumulation in detritus and detritus + vegetation in response to independent variables commonly monitored by plantation managers (site index (SI), trees per hectare (TPH) and plantation age (AGE)). The C stored in detritus and vegetation increased on average with AGE and both models included SI and TPH. The detritus model explained less variance (adj. R2 = 0.29) than the detritus + vegetation model (adj. R2 = 0.87). A general recommendation for managers looking to maximize C storage would be to maintain a high TPH and increase SI, with SI manipulation having a greater relative effect. From the model, we predict that a plantation managed to achieve the average upper third SI (26.8) within our observations, and planted at 1500 TPH, could accumulate ~85 Mg C ha−1 by 12 years of age in detritus and vegetation, an amount greater than the region’s average mineral soil C pool. Notably, SI can be increased using both genetic and silviculture technologies.

Estimation of the relative contributions of forest areal expansion and growth to China's forest stand biomass carbon sequestration from 1977 to 2018

As a prominent part of global and regional terrestrial carbon (C) pools, increases in forest biomass C sinks can be attributed to either forest areal expansion (FAE) or increased biomass C density (IBCD). Accurate estimates of the relative contributions of FAE and IBCD to forest C sequestration can improve our understanding of forest C cycling processes and will help to formulate rational afforestation policies to cope with global warming. In this study, the Continuous Biomass Expansion Factor (CBEF) model and Forest Identity concept were used to map the spatiotemporal variation of the relative contribution of FAE and IBCD to the C sequestration of forest (natural and planted forests) in China and seven regions during the past 40 years. Our results suggest that: (1) total forest biomass C density and stocks of forest increased from 35.41 Mg C ha^-1 and 4128.50 Tg C to 43.95 Mg C ha^-1 and 7906.23 Tg C in China from 1977 to 2018, respectively; (2) for all forests, the IBCD has been a smaller contributor to C sinks than FAE in China from 1977 to 2018 (33.27 vs. 66.73%); (3) the contribution of FAE to C sinks is greater than that of IBCD in planted forests (63.99 vs. 36.01%), while in natural forests, IBCD has a larger contribution than FAE (57.82 vs. 42.18%) from 1977 to 2018 and the relative contribution of FAE has exceeded IBCD in the last decade; and (4) these patterns varied at the regional level such that the relative contribution of FAE increased for planted forests in most regions but for natural forests, IBCD gradually reached saturation and C stocks declined in northern regions in the last decade. The results from this study suggest that total biomass C sinks will keep increasing because of the increased forest area contributed by afforestation and the relatively young trees in planted forests. This study facilitates a more comprehensive assessment of forest C budgets and improves our understanding of ecological mechanisms of forest biomass carbon stock and dynamics.

Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Change Using Time-Series Data and Random Forest in North Korea

North Korea being one of the most degraded forests globally has recently been emphasizing in forest restoration. Monitoring the trend of forest restoration in North Korea has important reference significance for regional environmental management and ecological security. Thus, this study constructed and analyzed a time-series land use land cover (LULC) map to identify the LULC changes (LULCCs) over extensive periods across North Korea and understand the forest change trends. The analysis of LULC used Landsat multi-temporal image and Random Forest algorithm on Google Earth Engine(GEE) from 2001 to 2018 in North Korea. Through the LULCC detection technique and consideration of the cropland change relation with elevation, the forest change in North Korea for 2001–2018 was evaluated. We extended the existing sampling methodology and obtained a higher overall accuracy (98.2% ± 1.6%), with corresponding kappa coefficients (0.959 ± 0.037), and improved the classification accuracy in cropland and forest cover. Through the change detection and spatial analysis, our research shows that the forests in the southern and central regions of North Korea are undergoing restoration. The sampling method we extended in this study can effectively and reliably monitoring the change trend of North Korea forests. It also provides an important reference for the regional environmental management and ecological security in North Korea.

Does Aiming for Long-Term Non-Decreasing Flow of Timber Secure Carbon Accumulation: A Lithuanian Forestry Case

Lithuanian forestry has long been shaped by the classical normal forest theory, aiming for even long-term flow of timber, and the aspiration to preserve domestic forest resources, leading to very conservative forest management. With radically changing forest management conditions, climate change mitigation efforts suggest increasing timber demands in the future. The main research question asked in this study addresses whether current forest management principles in Lithuania can secure non-decreasing long-term flow of timber and carbon accumulation. The development of national forest resources and forestry was simulated for the next century using the Kupolis decision support system and assuming that current forest management is continued under the condition of three scenarios, differing by climate change mitigation efforts. Potential development trends of key forest attributes were analysed and compared with projected carbon stock changes over time, incorporating major forest carbon pools—biomass, harvested wood products and emission savings due to energy and product substitution. The key finding was that the total carbon balance should remain positive in Lithuania during the next one hundred years; however, it might start to decrease after several decades, with steadily increasing harvesting and a reduced increase of forest productivity. Additionally, incorporating the harvested wood and CO2 emissions savings in carbon balance evaluations is essential.

Temperate deciduous shrub phenology: the overlooked forest layer

Temperate deciduous shrub phenology plays a pivotal role in forest ecology by regulating the timing of suitable habitat and food of a range of organisms as well as influencing the timing and duration of the carbon uptake period especially in early spring and late autumn when trees are leafless. However, given the overwhelming influence of canopy trees on forest ecosystem functioning, shrubs are often ignored in ecosystem modeling. Isolating the shrub contribution to C flux or satellite-derived forest phenology is challenging. In addition, since shrubs are more likely to be invasive than trees, future changes to shrub species composition are likely, with consequent implications for both over- and understory species composition and ecosystem functioning. Surprisingly, given their multifaceted role, our review revealed that studies on temperate deciduous shrub phenology are limited with the majority focusing on managing invasive shrubs in USA forests. In addition, results of some studies using a large number of species from a range of geographical locations suggested that, in general, invasive shrubs leafed out earlier and retained leaves longer than native species. However, this may not be directly applicable to local conditions with a smaller range of locally adapted species. Therefore, in order to fully understand the role of shrub phenology in temperate deciduous forests, in terms of invasive species, response to climate change and subsequent influence on C balance it will be necessary to establish phenological monitoring sites in which both tree and shrub phenology are recorded concurrently across a range of geographical locations.

Dual Roles of Water Availability in Forest Vigor: A Multiperspective Analysis in China

Water availability is one of the most important resources for forest growth. However, due to its complex spatio-temporal relationship with other climatic factors (e.g., temperature and solar radiation), it paradoxically shows both positive and negative correlations (i.e., dual roles) with forest vigor for unknown reasons. In this study, a multiperspective analysis that combined the deficit of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (dNDVI) and multitimescale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was conducted for the forests in China, from which their correlation strengths and directions (positive or negative) were linked with spatio-temporal patterns of environmental temperature (T) and water balance (WB) (i.e., precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration). In this way, the reasons for the inconsistent roles of water were revealed. The results showed that the roles of water availability greatly depended on T, WB, and seasonality (i.e., growing or pregrowing season) for both planted and natural forests. Specifically, a negative role of water availability mainly occurred in regions of T below its specific threshold (i.e., T ≤ Tthreshold) during the pregrowing season. In contrast, a positive role was mainly observed in warm environments (T > Tthreshold) during the pregrowing season and in dry environments where WB was below its specific threshold (i.e., WB ≤ WBthreshold) during the growing season. The values of Tthreshold and WBthreshold were related to the vegetation type, with Tthreshold ranging from 1.3 to 4.7 °C and WBthreshold ranging from 129.1 to 238.8 mm/month, respectively. Our study revealed that the values of Tthreshold and WBthreshold for a specific forest were stable, and did not change with the SPEI time-scales. Our results reveal the dual roles of water availability in forest vigor and highlight the importance of environmental climate and seasonality, which jointly affect the roles of water availability in forest vigor. These should be considered when monitoring and/or predicting the impacts of drought on forests in the future.

In-situ quantification of microscopic contributions of individual cells to macroscopic wood deformation with synchrotron computed tomography

Wood-based composites hold the promise of sustainable construction. Understanding the influence on wood cellular microstructure in the macroscopic mechanical behavior is key for engineering high-performance composites. In this work, we report a novel Individual Cell Tracking (ICT) approach for in-situ quantification of nanometer-scale deformations of individual wood cells during mechanical loading of macroscopic millimeter-scale wood samples. Softwood samples containing > 10⁴ cells were subjected to controlled radial tensile and longitudinal compressive load in a synchrotron radiation micro-computed tomography (SRµCT) setup. Tracheid and wood ray cells were automatically segmented, and their geometric variations were tracked during load. Finally, interactions between microstructure deformations (lumen geometry, cell wall thickness), cellular arrangement (annual growth rings, anisotropy, wood ray presence) with the macroscopic deformation response were investigated. The results provide cellular insight into macroscopic relations, such as anisotropic Poisson effects, and allow direct observation of previously suspected wood ray reinforcing effects. The method is also appropriate for investigation of non-linear deformation effects, such as buckling and deformation recovery after failure, and gives insight into less studied aspects, such as changes in lumen diameter and cell wall thickness during uniaxial load. ICT provides an experimental tool for direct validation of hierarchical mechanical models on real biological composites.

Estimates of Forest Canopy Height Using a Combination of ICESat-2/ATLAS Data and Stereo-Photogrammetry

Forest canopy height is an indispensable forest vertical structure parameter for understanding the carbon cycle and forest ecosystem services. A variety of studies based on spaceborne Lidar, such as ICESat, ICESat-2 and airborne Lidar, were conducted to estimate forest canopy height at multiple scales. However, while a few studies have been conducted based on ICESat-2 simulated data from airborne Lidar data, few studies have analyzed ATL08 and ATL03 products derived from the ATLAS sensor onboard ICESat-2 for regional vegetation canopy height mapping. It is necessary and promising to explore how data obtained by ICESat-2 can be applied to estimate forest canopy height. This study proposes a new means to estimate forest canopy height, defined as the mean height of trees within a given forest area, using a combination of ICESat-2 ATL08 and ATL03 data and ZY-3 satellite stereo images. Five procedures were used to estimate the forest canopy height of the city of Nanning in China: (1) Processing ground photons in a 30 m × 30 m grid; (2) Extracting a digital surface model (DSM) using ZY-3 stereo images; (3) Calculating a discontinuous canopy height model (CHM) dataset; (4) Validating the DSM and ground photon height using GEDI data; (5) Estimating the regional wall-to-wall forest canopy height product based on the backpropagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model and Landsat 8 vegetation indices and independent accuracy assessments with field measured plots. The validation shows a root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.34 m to 3.47 m and a coefficient of determination R2 = 0.51. The new method shows promise and can be used for large-scale forest canopy height mapping at various resolutions or in combination with other data, such as SAR images. Finally, this study analyzes resolutions and how to filter effective data when ATL08 data are directly used to generate regional or global vegetation height products, which will be the focus of future research.

Forest policy and management approaches for carbon dioxide removal

Forests increasingly will be used for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) as a natural climate solution, and the implementation of forest-based CDR presents a complex public policy challenge. In this paper, our goal is to review a range of policy tools in place to support use of forests for CDR and demonstrate how concepts from the policy design literature can inform our understanding of this domain. We explore how the utilization of different policy tools shapes our ability to use forests to mitigate and adapt to climate change and consider the challenges of policy mixes and integration, taking a close look at three areas of international forest policy, including the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) and voluntary carbon offset markets. As it is our expertise, we then examine in detail the case of the USA as a country that lacks aggressive implementation of national climate policies but has potential to increase CDR through reforestation and existing forest management on both public and private land. For forest-based CDR to succeed, a wide array of policy tools will have to be implemented in a variety of contexts with an eye towards overcoming the challenges of policy design with regard to uncertainty in policy outcomes, policy coherence around managing forests for carbon simultaneously with other goals and integration across governance contexts and levels.

Baseline of Carbon Stocks in Pinus radiata and Eucalyptus spp. Plantations of Chile

Forest plantations have a large potential for carbon sequestration, playing an important role in the global carbon cycle. However, despite the large amount of research carried out worldwide, the absolute contribution of forest plantations is still incomplete for some parts of the world. To help bridge this gap, we calculated the amount of C stock in three fast growing forest species in Chile. Carbon pools in above-ground and below-ground biomass, forest floor, and soil were considered for this analysis. Across the plantation forests of Chile, carbon accumulated in the above-ground biomass was 181–212 Mg · ha−1 for Pinus radiata, 147–180 Mg · ha−1 for Eucalyptus nitens, and 95–117 Mg · ha−1 for Eucalyptus globulus (age 20–24 years for P. radiata and 10–14 years for Eucalyptus). Total C stocks were for 343 Mg · ha−1 for P. radiata, 352 Mg · ha−1 for E. nitens, and 254 Mg · ha−1 for E. globulus, also at the end of a typical rotation. The carbon pool in the forest floor was found to be significantly lower (less than 4% of the total) when compared to the other pools and showed large spatial variability. Our results agree with other studies showing that 30–50% of the total C stock is stored in the soil. The baseline data will be valuable for modelling C storage changes under different management regimes (changes in species, rotation length and stocking) and for different future climates. Given the contribution of soils to total carbon stocks, special attention should be paid to forest management activities that affect the soil organic carbon pool.

Effect of terrestrial vegetation growth on climate change in China

Globally, some vegetation has grown significantly over the past decades, but the climate benefits remain unclear, especially in the temperate regions. Understanding the biophysical effects and identifying the potential of vegetation will help to mitigate climate change. Here, we propose a vegetation-adjusted temperature index to understand how terrestrial vegetation growth in China affects the air temperature for 2001-2013, based on satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index, near-surface air temperature (T_a) and the land surface temperature. Grassland growth and cropland growth are found to cool the T_a by -0.08 ± 0.32 °C (mean ± one standard deviation) and -0.06 ± 0.28 °C, respectively. Forest growth results in net climate warming by 0.05 ± 0.29 °C. Biophysical effects, elevation and background climate are used to explain the climate impacts of vegetation. Results show that the biophysical effects dominate the climate impact. More specifically, evapotranspiration (ET) controls the daytime climate impact, and at night, an indirect effect of albedo (the release of daytime heat storage) dominates it. Lower precipitation, temperature and elevation reinforce the warming potential. Moreover, the effects of albedo and ET on climate are nonlinear. During the day, although lower albedo absorbs more incoming radiation, it releases more extra heat per unit ET that can compensate for the increased incoming radiation. At night, the warming effect reflects the release of daytime heat storage. Overall, tropical vegetation growth (-0.04 ± 0.10 °C) and warm temperate vegetation growth (-0.08 ± 0.15 °C) achieve the climatic benefits. Overall, the method proposed contributes to quantitatively evaluate the role of afforestation plan on regional climate cooling, and provides some policy/practical implications for future afforestation projects. Future afforestation projects should carefully consider the biophysical process and background climate to mitigate climate change.

CO2 Profiling by Space-Borne Raman Lidar

As clearly reported in the IPCC fifth Assessment Report, CO2 emissions are already producing destructive effects to the plant ecosystem through the alteration of soil-atmosphere interaction mechanisms.

Although the space and ground network for CO2 monitoring has regularly expanded over the past 50 years, it does not guarantee the necessary spatial and temporal resolution needed for a quantitative analysis of sources and sinks. For the purpose of estimating forests’ carbon capturing capabilities, accurate measurements of CO2 gradients between the forest floor and the top of the canopy, which ultimately translates into the capability to measure CO2 concentration profiles. Space sensors provide CO2 measurements above forest canopies, which do not allow to properly estimate Gross Primary Production (GPP).

These observational gaps could be addressed with an active remote sensing system in space based on the vibrational Raman lidar technique. CO2 profile measurements are possible, together with simultaneous measurements of the temperature and water vapour mixing ratio profile and a variety of additional variables (aerosol backscatter profile, aerosol extinction profile, PBL depth, cloud top and base heights, cloud optical depth). An assessment of the expected performance of the system has been performed based on the application of an analytical simulation model developed at University of Basilicata.

Coyle K, A. Kluber L, J. Burke D. Fungal and Bacterial Communities Exhibit Consistent Responses to Reversal of Soil Acidification and Phosphorus Limitation over Time

Chronic acid deposition affects many temperate hardwood forests of the northeastern United States, reduces soil pH and phosphorus (P) availability, and can alter the structure and function of soil microbial communities. The strategies that microorganisms possess for survival in acidic, low P soil come at a carbon (C) cost. Thus, how microbial communities respond to soil acidification in forests may be influenced by plant phenological stage as C allocation belowground varies; however, this remains largely unexplored. In this study, we examined microbial communities in an ecosystem level manipulative experiment where pH and/or P availability were elevated in three separate forests in Northeastern Ohio. Tag-encoded pyrosequencing was used to examine bacterial and fungal community structure at five time points across one year corresponding to plant phenological stages. We found significant effects of pH treatment and time on fungal and bacterial communities in soil. However, we found no interaction between pH treatment and time of sampling for fungal communities and only a weak interaction between pH elevation and time for bacterial communities, suggesting that microbial community responses to soil pH are largely independent of plant phenological stage. In addition, fungal communities were structured largely by site, suggesting that fungi were responding to differences between the forests, such as plant community differences.

Effects of land use change from natural forest to plantation on C, N and natural abundance of 13C and 15N along a climate gradient in eastern China

Soil C and N turnover rates and contents are strongly influenced by climates (e.g., mean annual temperature MAT, and mean annual precipitation MAP) as well as human activities. However, the effects of converting natural forests to intensively human-managed plantations on soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N) dynamics across various climatic zones are not well known. In this study, we evaluated C, N pool and natural abundances of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N in forest floor layer and 1-meter depth mineral soils under natural forests (NF) and plantation forest (PF) at six sites in eastern China. Our results showed that forest floor had higher C contents and lower N contents in PF compared to NF, resulting in high forest floor C/N ratios and a decrease in the quality of organic materials in forest floor under plantations. In general, soil C, N contents and their isotope changed significantly in the forest floor and mineral soil after land use change (LUC). Soil δ¹³C was significantly enriched in forest floor after LUC while both δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values were enriched in mineral soils. Linear and non-linear regressions were observed for MAP and MAT in soil C/N ratios and soil δ¹³C, in their changes with NF conversion to PF while soil δ¹⁵N values were positively correlated with MAT. Our findings implied that LUC alters soil C turnover and contents and MAP drive soil δ¹³C dynamic.

Integrating TimeSync Disturbance Detection and Repeat Forest Inventory to Predict Carbon Flux

Understanding change in forest carbon (C) is important for devising strategies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. National forest inventories (NFIs) are important to meet international accounting goals, but data are often incomplete going back in time, and the amount of time between remeasurements can make attribution of C flux to specific events difficult. The long time series of Landsat imagery provides spatially comprehensive, consistent information that can be used to fill the gaps in ground measurements with predictive models. To evaluate such models, we relate Landsat spectral changes and disturbance interpretations directly to C flux measured on NFI plots and compare the performance of models with and without ground-measured predictor variables. The study was conducted in the forests of southwest Oregon State, USA, a region of diverse forest types, disturbances, and landowner management objectives. Plot data consisted of 676 NFI plots with remeasured individual tree data over a mean interval (time 1 to time 2) of 10.0 years. We calculated change in live aboveground woody carbon (AWC), including separate components of growth, mortality, and harvest. We interpreted radiometrically corrected annual Landsat images with the TimeSync (TS) tool for a 90 m × 90 m area over each plot. Spectral time series were divided into segments of similar trajectories and classified as disturbance, recovery, or stability segments, with type of disturbance identified. We calculated a variety of values and segment changes from tasseled cap angle and distance (TCA and TCD) as potential predictor variables of C flux. Multiple linear regression was used to model AWC and net change in AWC from the TS change metrics. The TS attribution of disturbance matched the plot measurements 89% of the time regarding whether fire or harvest had occurred or not. The primary disagreement was due to plots that had been partially cut, mostly in vigorous stands where the net change in AWC over the measurement was positive in spite of cutting. The plot-measured AWC at time 2 was 86.0 ± 78.7 Mg C ha−1 (mean and standard deviation), and the change in AWC across all plots was 3.5 ± 33 Mg C ha−1 year−1. The best model for AWC based solely on TS and other mapped variables had an R2 = 0.52 (RMSE = 54.6 Mg C ha−1); applying this model at two time periods to estimate net change in AWC resulted in an R2 = 0.25 (RMSE = 28.3 Mg ha−1) and a mean error of −5.4 Mg ha−1. The best model for AWC at time 2 using plot measurements at time 1 and TS variables had an R2 = 0.95 (RSME = 17.0 Mg ha−1). The model for net change in AWC using the same data was identical except that, because the variable being estimated was smaller in magnitude, the R2 = 0.73. All models performed better at estimating net change in AWC on TS-disturbed plots than on TS-undisturbed plots. The TS discrimination of disturbance between fire and harvest was an important variable in the models because the magnitude of spectral change from fire was greater for a given change in AWC. Regional models without plot-level predictors produced erroneous predictions of net change in AWC for some of the forest types. Our study suggests that, in spite of the simplicity of applying a single carbon model to multiple image dates, the approach can produce inaccurate estimates of C flux. Although models built with plot-level predictors are necessarily constrained to making predictions at plot locations, they show promise for providing accurate updates or back-calculations of C flux assessments.

Forest Type Classification Based on Integrated Spectral-Spatial-Temporal Features and Random Forest Algorithm—A Case Study in the Qinling Mountains

Spectral, spatial, and temporal features play important roles in land cover classification. However, limitations still exist in the integrated application of spectral-spatial-temporal (SST) features for forest type discrimination. This paper proposes a forest type classification framework based on SST features and the random forest (RF) algorithm. The SST features were derived from time-series images using original bands, vegetation index, gray-level correlation matrix, and harmonic analysis. Random forest-recursive feature elimination (RF-RFE) was used to optimize high-dimensional and correlated feature space, and determine the optimal SST feature set. Then, the classification was carried out using an RF classifier and the optimized SST feature set. This method was applied in the Qinling Mountains using Sentinel-2 time-series images. A total of 21 SST features were obtained through the RF-RFE method, and their importance was evaluated using the Gini index. The results indicated that spectral features contribute the most to separating shrubs, spatial features are more suitable for discrimination among evergreen forest types, and temporal features are more useful for evergreen forest, deciduous forest, and shrub types. The forest type map was generated based on the optimal SST feature set and RF algorithm, and evaluated based on an agreement with the validation dataset. The results showed that this integrated method is reliable, with an overall accuracy of 86.88% and kappa coefficient of 0.86, and can support forest type sustainable management and mapping at the local scale.

Adaptive Framework for the Delineation of Homogeneous Forest Areas Based on LiDAR Points

We propose a flexible framework for automated forest patch delineations that exploits a set of canopy structure features computed from airborne laser scanning (ALS) point clouds. The approach is based on an iterative subdivision of the point cloud using k-means clustering followed by an iterative merging step to tackle oversegmentation. The framework can be adapted for different applications by selecting relevant input features that best measure the intended homogeneity. In our study, the performance of the segmentation framework was tested for the delineation of forest patches with a homogeneous canopy height structure on the one hand and with similar water cycle conditions on the other. For the latter delineation, canopy components that impact interception and evapotranspiration were used, and the delineation was mainly driven by leaf area, tree functional type, and foliage density. The framework was further tested on two scenes covering a variety of forest conditions and topographies. We demonstrate that the delineated patches capture well the spatial distributions of relevant canopy features that are used for defining the homogeneity. The consistencies range from R 2 = 0 . 84 to R 2 = 0 . 86 and from R 2 = 0 . 80 to R 2 = 0 . 91 for the most relevant features in the delineation of patches with similar height structure and water cycle conditions, respectively.

Aboveground forest carbon shows different responses to fire frequency in harvested and unharvested forests

Sequestration of carbon in forest ecosystems has been identified as an effective strategy to help mitigate the effects of global climate change. Prescribed burning and timber harvesting are two common, co-occurring, forest management practices that may alter forest carbon pools. Prescribed burning for forest management, such as wildfire risk reduction, may shorten inter-fire intervals and potentially reduce carbon stocks. Timber harvesting may further increase the susceptibility of forest carbon to losses in response to frequent burning regimes by redistributing carbon stocks from the live pools into the dead pools, causing mechanical damage to retained trees and shifting the demography of tree communities. We used a 27-yr experiment in a temperate eucalypt forest to examine the effect of prescribed burning frequency and timber harvesting on aboveground carbon (AGC). Total AGC was reduced by ~23% on harvested plots when fire frequency increased from zero to seven fires, but was not affected by fire frequency on unharvested plots. The reduction in total AGC associated with increasing fire frequency on harvested plots was driven by declines in large coarse woody debris (≥10 cm diameter) and large trees (≥20 cm diameter). Small tree (<20 cm DBH) AGC increased with fire frequency on harvested plots, but decreased on unharvested plots. Carbon in dead standing trees decreased with increasing fire frequency on unharvested plots, but was unaffected on harvested plots. Small coarse woody debris (<10 cm diameter) was largely unaffected by fire frequency and harvesting. Total AGC on harvested plots was between 67% and 82% of that on unharvested plots, depending on burning treatment. Our results suggest that AGC in historically harvested forests may be susceptible to declines in response to increases in prescribed burning frequency. Consideration of historic harvesting will be important in understanding the effect of prescribed burning programs on forest carbon budgets.

Mathematical modeling of climate change and malaria transmission dynamics: a historical review

Malaria, one of the greatest historical killers of mankind, continues to claim around half a million lives annually, with almost all deaths occurring in children under the age of five living in tropical Africa. The range of this disease is limited by climate to the warmer regions of the globe, and so anthropogenic global warming (and climate change more broadly) now threatens to alter the geographic area for potential malaria transmission, as both the Plasmodium malaria parasite and Anopheles mosquito vector have highly temperature-dependent lifecycles, while the aquatic immature Anopheles habitats are also strongly dependent upon rainfall and local hydrodynamics. A wide variety of process-based (or mechanistic) mathematical models have thus been proposed for the complex, highly nonlinear weather-driven Anopheles lifecycle and malaria transmission dynamics, but have reached somewhat disparate conclusions as to optimum temperatures for transmission, and the possible effect of increasing temperatures upon (potential) malaria distribution, with some projecting a large increase in the area at risk for malaria, but others predicting primarily a shift in the disease's geographic range. More generally, both global and local environmental changes drove the initial emergence of P. falciparum as a major human pathogen in tropical Africa some 10,000 years ago, and the disease has a long and deep history through the present. It is the goal of this paper to review major aspects of malaria biology, methods for formalizing these into mathematical forms, uncertainties and controversies in proper modeling methodology, and to provide a timeline of some major modeling efforts from the classical works of Sir Ronald Ross and George Macdonald through recent climate-focused modeling studies. Finally, we attempt to place such mathematical work within a broader historical context for the "million-murdering Death" of malaria.

A systems approach to assess climate change mitigation options in landscapes of the United States forest sector

BACKGROUND

United States forests can contribute to national strategies for greenhouse gas reductions. The objective of this work was to evaluate forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios from 2018 to 2050 by applying a systems-based approach that accounts for net emissions across four interdependent components: (1) forest ecosystem, (2) land-use change, (3) harvested wood products, and (4) substitution benefits from using wood products and bioenergy. We assessed a range of land management and harvested wood product scenarios for two case studies in the U.S: coastal South Carolina and Northern Wisconsin. We integrated forest inventory and remotely-sensed disturbance data within a modelling framework consisting of a growth-and-yield driven ecosystem carbon model; a harvested wood products model that estimates emissions from commodity production, use and post-consumer treatment; and displacement factors to estimate avoided fossil fuel emissions. We estimated biophysical mitigation potential by comparing net emissions from land management and harvested wood products scenarios with a baseline ('business as usual') scenario.

RESULTS

Baseline scenario results showed that the strength of the ecosystem carbon sink has been decreasing in the two sites due to age-related productivity declines and deforestation. Mitigation activities have the potential to lessen or delay the further reduction in the carbon sink. Results of the mitigation analysis indicated that scenarios reducing net forest area loss were most effective in South Carolina, while extending harvest rotations and increasing longer-lived wood products were most effective in Wisconsin. Scenarios aimed at increasing bioenergy use either increased or reduced net emissions within the 32-year analysis timeframe.

CONCLUSIONS

It is critical to apply a systems approach to comprehensively assess net emissions from forest sector climate change mitigation scenarios. Although some scenarios produced a benefit by displacing emissions from fossil fuel energy or by substituting wood products for other materials, these benefits can be outweighed by increased carbon emissions in the forest or product systems. Maintaining forests as forests, extending rotations, and shifting commodities to longer-lived products had the strongest mitigation benefits over several decades. Carbon cycle impacts of bioenergy depend on timeframe, feedstocks, and alternative uses of biomass, and cannot be assumed carbon neutral.

Assessing historical and projected carbon balance of Alaska: A synthesis of results and policy/management implications

We summarize the results of a recent interagency assessment of land carbon dynamics in Alaska, in which carbon dynamics were estimated for all major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems for the historical period (1950-2009) and a projection period (2010-2099). Between 1950 and 2009, upland and wetland (i.e., terrestrial) ecosystems of the state gained 0.4 Tg C/yr (0.1% of net primary production, NPP), resulting in a cumulative greenhouse gas radiative forcing of 1.68 × 10^-3  W/m² . The change in carbon storage is spatially variable with the region of the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) losing carbon because of fire disturbance. The combined carbon transport via various pathways through inland aquatic ecosystems of Alaska was estimated to be 41.3 Tg C/yr (17% of terrestrial NPP). During the projection period (2010-2099), carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska was projected to increase (22.5-70.0 Tg C/yr), primarily because of NPP increases of 10-30% associated with responses to rising atmospheric CO₂ , increased nitrogen cycling, and longer growing seasons. Although carbon emissions to the atmosphere from wildfire and wetland CH₄ were projected to increase for all of the climate projections, the increases in NPP more than compensated for those losses at the statewide level. Carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems continue to warm the climate for four of the six future projections and cool the climate for only one of the projections. The attribution analyses we conducted indicated that the response of NPP in terrestrial ecosystems to rising atmospheric CO₂ (~5% per 100 ppmv CO₂ ) saturates as CO₂ increases (between approximately +150 and +450 ppmv among projections). This response, along with the expectation that permafrost thaw would be much greater and release large quantities of permafrost carbon after 2100, suggests that projected carbon gains in terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska may not be sustained. From a national perspective, inclusion of all of Alaska in greenhouse gas inventory reports would ensure better accounting of the overall greenhouse gas balance of the nation and provide a foundation for considering mitigation activities in areas that are accessible enough to support substantive deployment.

Forest aging, disturbance and the carbon cycle

Contents Summary 1188 I. Introduction 1188 II. Forest aging and carbon storage 1189 III. Successional trends of NEP in northern deciduous forests 1190 IV. Mechanisms sustaining NEP in aging deciduous forests 1191 Acknowledgements 1192 References 1192 SUMMARY: Large areas of forestland in temperate North America, as well as in other parts of the world, are growing older and will soon transition into middle and then late successional stages exceeding 100 yr in age. These ecosystems have been important regional carbon sinks as they recovered from prior anthropogenic and natural disturbance, but their future sink strength, or annual rate of carbon storage, is in question. Ecosystem development theory predicts a steady decline in annual carbon storage as forests age, but newly available, direct measurements of forest net CO₂ exchange challenge that prediction. In temperate deciduous forests, where moderate severity disturbance regimes now often prevail, there is little evidence for any marked decline in carbon storage rate during mid-succession. Rather, an increase in physical and biological complexity under these disturbance regimes may drive increases in resource-use efficiency and resource availability that help to maintain significant carbon storage in these forests well past the century mark. Conservation of aging deciduous forests may therefore sustain the terrestrial carbon sink, whilst providing other goods and services afforded by these biologically and structurally complex ecosystems.