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Regev S, Carmel Y, Schlabing D, Gal G. Climate change impact on sub-tropical lakes - Lake Kinneret as a case study. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 921:171163. [PMID: 38402963 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2023] [Revised: 01/29/2024] [Accepted: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 02/27/2024]
Abstract
Climate change is anticipated to alter lake ecosystems by affecting water quality, potentially resulting in loss of ecosystem services. Subtropical lakes have high temperatures to begin with and are expected to exhibit higher temperatures all year round which might affect the thermal structure and ecological processes in a different manner than lakes in temperate zones. In this study the ecosystem response of the sub-tropical Lake Kinneret to climate change was explored using lake ecosystem models. Projection reliability was increased by using a weather generator and ensemble modelling, confronting uncertainty of both climate projections and lake models. The study included running two 1D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models over one thousand realizations of two gradual temperature increase scenarios that span over 49 years. Our predictions show that an increase in air temperature would have subtle effects on stratification properties but may result in considerable changes to biogeochemical processes. Water temperature rise would cause a reduction in dissolved oxygen. Both of these changes would produce elevated phosphate and lowered ammonium concentrations. In turn, these changes are predicted to modify the phytoplankton community, expressed chiefly in increased cyanobacteria blooms at the expense of green phytoplankton and dinoflagellates; these changes may culminate in overall reduction of primary production. Identification of these trends would not be possible without the use of many realizations of climate scenarios. The use of ensemble modelling increased prediction reliability and highlighted elements of uncertainty. Though we use Lake Kinneret, the patterns identified most likely indicate processes that are expected in sub-tropical lakes in general.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shajar Regev
- Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research, Migdal 14950000, Israel; Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 3200003, Israel.
| | - Yohay Carmel
- Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 3200003, Israel
| | - Dirk Schlabing
- University of Stuttgart, Institute for Modelling Hydraulic and Environmental Systems, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Gideon Gal
- Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research, Migdal 14950000, Israel
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2
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Klein SG, Roch C, Duarte CM. Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change. Nat Commun 2024; 15:2224. [PMID: 38472196 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46255-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2022] [Accepted: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely to safeguard most of the world's coral reefs. This prognosis is primarily based on a small subset of available models that apply similar 'excess heat' threshold methodologies. Our systematic review of 79 articles projecting coral reef responses to climate change revealed five main methods. 'Excess heat' models constituted one third (32%) of all studies but attracted a disproportionate share (68%) of citations in the field. Most methods relied on deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding the field's ability to estimate uncertainty. To synthesize the available projections, we aimed to identify models with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices in model outputs and scenarios limited the analysis to a fraction of available studies. We found substantial discrepancies in the projected impacts, indicating that the subset of articles serving as a basis for climate change syntheses may project more severe consequences than other studies and methodologies. Drawing on insights from other fields, we propose methods to incorporate uncertainty into deterministic modeling approaches and propose a multi-model ensemble approach to generating probabilistic projections for coral reef futures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shannon G Klein
- Marine Science Program, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division (BESE), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
- Red Sea Research Center (RSRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
- Computational Bioscience Research Center (CBRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
| | - Cassandra Roch
- Marine Science Program, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division (BESE), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
- Red Sea Research Center (RSRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
- Computational Bioscience Research Center (CBRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Carlos M Duarte
- Marine Science Program, Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division (BESE), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
- Red Sea Research Center (RSRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
- Computational Bioscience Research Center (CBRC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, 23955-6900, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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3
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Mondal S, Lee MA, Weng JS, Osuka KE, Chen YK, Ray A. Seasonal distribution patterns of Scomberomorus commerson in the Taiwan Strait in relation to oceanographic conditions: An ensemble modeling approach. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2023; 197:115733. [PMID: 37925992 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115733] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Revised: 10/25/2023] [Accepted: 10/26/2023] [Indexed: 11/07/2023]
Abstract
The decline in the stock of the narrow-barred Spanish mackerel in the Taiwan Strait has sparked interest in conservation efforts. To optimize conservation and restoration efforts, it is crucial to understand their habitat preference in response to changing environments. In this study, ensemble modeling was used to investigate the seasonal distribution patterns of Spanish mackerel. Winter was identified as the most productive season, followed by fall; productivity was the lowest in summer. Five single-algorithm models were developed, and on the basis of their performance, four were selected for inclusion in an ensemble species distribution model. The spatial distribution of Spanish mackerel was primarily along the latitudinal range 23°-25°N in spring and summer. However, in fall and winter, the geographical range increased toward the southern region. The findings of this study will contribute to the understanding of this specific species and the approach used in this study may be applicable to other fisheries stocks also.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sandipan Mondal
- Department of Environmental Biology Fisheries Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 202, Taiwan; Center of Excellence for the Oceans, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 202, Taiwan
| | - Ming-An Lee
- Department of Environmental Biology Fisheries Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 202, Taiwan; Center of Excellence for the Oceans, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 202, Taiwan; Doctoral degree program in Ocean Resource and Environmental Changes, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 202, Taiwan.
| | - Jinn-Shing Weng
- Coastal and Offshore Resources Research Center of Fisheries Research Institute, Council of Agriculture Executive Yuan, Kaohsiung 80672, Taiwan
| | - Kennedy Edeye Osuka
- Department of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3BX, United Kingdom
| | - Yu Kai Chen
- Coastal and Offshore Resources Research Center of Fisheries Research Institute, Council of Agriculture Executive Yuan, Kaohsiung 80672, Taiwan
| | - Aratrika Ray
- Department of Environmental Biology Fisheries Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 202, Taiwan
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4
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Korpinen S, Uusitalo L, Nordström MC, Dierking J, Tomczak MT, Haldin J, Opitz S, Bonsdorff E, Neuenfeldt S. Food web assessments in the Baltic Sea: Models bridging the gap between indicators and policy needs. AMBIO 2022; 51:1687-1697. [PMID: 35092571 PMCID: PMC9110573 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-021-01692-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2021] [Revised: 10/22/2021] [Accepted: 12/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Ecosystem-based management requires understanding of food webs. Consequently, assessment of food web status is mandatory according to the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) for EU Member States. However, how to best monitor and assess food webs in practise has proven a challenging question. Here, we review and assess the current status of food web indicators and food web models, and discuss whether the models can help addressing current shortcomings of indicator-based food web assessments, using the Baltic Sea as an example region. We show that although the MSFD food web assessment was designed to use food web indicators alone, they are currently poorly fit for the purpose, because they lack interconnectivity of trophic guilds. We then argue that the multiple food web models published for this region have a high potential to provide additional coherence to the definition of good environmental status, the evaluation of uncertainties, and estimates for unsampled indicator values, but we also identify current limitations that stand in the way of more formal implementation of this approach. We close with a discussion of which current models have the best capacity for this purpose in the Baltic Sea, and of the way forward towards the combination of measurable indicators and modelling approaches in food web assessments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuli Korpinen
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Laura Uusitalo
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Jan Dierking
- GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Duesternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
| | | | - Jannica Haldin
- HELCOM Secretariat, Katajanokanlaituri 6B, 00160 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Silvia Opitz
- GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Duesternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
| | | | - Stefan Neuenfeldt
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark (DTU Aqua), Kemitorvet, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
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5
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Uusitalo L, Blenckner T, Puntila-Dodd R, Skyttä A, Jernberg S, Voss R, Müller-Karulis B, Tomczak MT, Möllmann C, Peltonen H. Integrating diverse model results into decision support for good environmental status and blue growth. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 806:150450. [PMID: 34599959 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2021] [Revised: 08/24/2021] [Accepted: 09/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Sustainable environmental management needs to consider multiple ecological and societal objectives simultaneously while accounting for the many uncertainties arising from natural variability, insufficient knowledge about the system's behaviour leading to diverging model projections, and changing ecosystem. In this paper we demonstrate how a Bayesian network- based decision support model can be used to summarize a large body of research and model projections about potential management alternatives and climate scenarios for the Baltic Sea. We demonstrate how this type of a model can act as an emulator and ensemble, integrating disciplines such as climatology, biogeochemistry, marine and fisheries ecology as well as economics. Further, Bayesian network models include and present the uncertainty related to the predictions, allowing evaluation of the uncertainties, precautionary management, and the explicit consideration of acceptable risk levels. The Baltic Sea example also shows that the two biogeochemical models frequently used in future projections give considerably different predictions. Further, inclusion of parameter uncertainty of the food web model increased uncertainty in the outcomes and reduced the predicted manageability of the system. The model allows simultaneous evaluation of environmental and economic goals, while illustrating the uncertainty of predictions, providing a more holistic view of the management problem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Uusitalo
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland.
| | - Thorsten Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Riikka Puntila-Dodd
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Annaliina Skyttä
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Susanna Jernberg
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Rudi Voss
- Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Wilhelm-Seelig-Platz 1, 24118 Kiel, Germany; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | | | - Maciej T Tomczak
- Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Christian Möllmann
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Universität Hamburg, Große Elbstraße 133, 22767 Hamburg, Germany
| | - Heikki Peltonen
- Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
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6
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Bossier S, Nielsen JR, Almroth-Rosell E, Höglund A, Bastardie F, Neuenfeldt S, Wåhlström I, Christensen A. Integrated ecosystem impacts of climate change and eutrophication on main Baltic fishery resources. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109609] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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7
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Yurek S, Eaton MJ, Lavaud R, Laney RW, DeAngelis DL, Pine WE, La Peyre M, Martin J, Frederick P, Wang H, Lowe MR, Johnson F, Camp EV, Mordecai R. Modeling structural mechanics of oyster reef self-organization including environmental constraints and community interactions. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109389] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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8
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Hunt TN, Allen SJ, Bejder L, Parra GJ. Identifying priority habitat for conservation and management of Australian humpback dolphins within a marine protected area. Sci Rep 2020; 10:14366. [PMID: 32873830 PMCID: PMC7463025 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-69863-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2020] [Accepted: 06/29/2020] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Increasing human activity along the coast has amplified the extinction risk of inshore delphinids. Informed selection and prioritisation of areas for the conservation of inshore delphinids requires a comprehensive understanding of their distribution and habitat use. In this study, we applied an ensemble species distribution modelling approach, combining results of six modelling algorithms to identify areas of high probability of occurrence of the globally Vulnerable Australian humpback dolphin in northern Ningaloo Marine Park (NMP), north-western Australia. Model outputs were based on sighting data collected during systematic, boat-based surveys between 2013 and 2015, and in relation to various ecogeographic variables. Water depth and distance to coast were identified as the most important variables influencing dolphin presence, with dolphins showing a preference for shallow waters (5-15 m) less than 2 km from the coast. Areas of high probability (> 0.6) of dolphin occurrence were primarily (90%) in multiple use areas where extractive human activities are permitted, and were poorly represented in sanctuary (no-take) zones. This spatial mismatch emphasises the need to reassess for future spatial planning and marine park management plan reviews for NMP. Shallow, coastal waters identified here should be considered priority areas for the conservation of this Vulnerable species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tim N Hunt
- Cetacean Ecology, Behaviour and Evolution Lab, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Sturt Road, Adelaide, SA, 5042, Australia.
| | - Simon J Allen
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Stirling Highway, Perth, WA, 6109, Australia
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol, BS8 1TQ, UK
- Department of Anthropology, University of Zurich, Rämistrasse 71, 8006, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Lars Bejder
- Aquatic Megafauna Research Unit, Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Ecosystems, Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, South Street, Perth, WA, 6150, Australia
- Marine Mammal Research Program, Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Manoa, HI, 96734, USA
| | - Guido J Parra
- Cetacean Ecology, Behaviour and Evolution Lab, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Sturt Road, Adelaide, SA, 5042, Australia
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9
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Rousso BZ, Bertone E, Stewart R, Hamilton DP. A systematic literature review of forecasting and predictive models for cyanobacteria blooms in freshwater lakes. WATER RESEARCH 2020; 182:115959. [PMID: 32531494 DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2020.115959] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2019] [Revised: 05/06/2020] [Accepted: 05/17/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Cyanobacteria harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) in lakes and reservoirs represent a major risk for water authorities globally due to their toxicity and economic impacts. Anticipating bloom occurrence and understanding the main drivers of CyanoHABs are needed to optimize water resources management. An extensive review of the application of CyanoHABs forecasting and predictive models was performed, and a summary of the current state of knowledge, limitations and research opportunities on this topic is provided through analysis of case studies. Two modelling approaches were used to achieve CyanoHABs anticipation; process-based (PB) and data-driven (DD) models. The objective of the model was a determining factor for the choice of modelling approach. PB models were more frequently used to predict future scenarios whereas DD models were employed for short-term forecasts. Each modelling approach presented multiple variations that may be applied for more specific, targeted purposes. Most models reviewed were site-specific. The monitoring methodologies, including data frequency, uncertainty and precision, were identified as a major limitation to improve model performance. A lack of standardization of both model output and performance metrics was observed. CyanoHAB modelling is an interdisciplinary topic and communication between disciplines should be improved to facilitate model comparisons. These shortcomings can hinder the adoption of modelling tools by practitioners. We suggest that water managers should focus on generalising models for lakes with similar characteristics and where possible use high frequency monitoring for model development and validation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benny Zuse Rousso
- Griffith School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Parklands Drive, Southport, Queensland, 4222, Australia; Cities Research Institute, Griffith University, Parklands Drive, Southport, Queensland, 4222, Australia
| | - Edoardo Bertone
- Griffith School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Parklands Drive, Southport, Queensland, 4222, Australia; Cities Research Institute, Griffith University, Parklands Drive, Southport, Queensland, 4222, Australia; Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, Queensland, 4111, Australia.
| | - Rodney Stewart
- Griffith School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Parklands Drive, Southport, Queensland, 4222, Australia; Cities Research Institute, Griffith University, Parklands Drive, Southport, Queensland, 4222, Australia
| | - David P Hamilton
- Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, Queensland, 4111, Australia
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10
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Maltby KM, Rutterford LA, Tinker J, Genner MJ, Simpson SD. Projected impacts of warming seas on commercially fished species at a biogeographic boundary of the European continental shelf. J Appl Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Katherine M. Maltby
- Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas) Lowestoft UK
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
| | - Louise A. Rutterford
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
- School of Biological Sciences Life Sciences Building University of Bristol Bristol UK
| | | | - Martin J. Genner
- School of Biological Sciences Life Sciences Building University of Bristol Bristol UK
| | - Stephen D. Simpson
- Biosciences College of Life & Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Exeter UK
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11
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Little DF, Snyder JS, Elhilali M. Ensemble modeling of auditory streaming reveals potential sources of bistability across the perceptual hierarchy. PLoS Comput Biol 2020; 16:e1007746. [PMID: 32275706 PMCID: PMC7185718 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/10/2019] [Revised: 04/27/2020] [Accepted: 02/25/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Perceptual bistability-the spontaneous, irregular fluctuation of perception between two interpretations of a stimulus-occurs when observing a large variety of ambiguous stimulus configurations. This phenomenon has the potential to serve as a tool for, among other things, understanding how function varies across individuals due to the large individual differences that manifest during perceptual bistability. Yet it remains difficult to interpret the functional processes at work, without knowing where bistability arises during perception. In this study we explore the hypothesis that bistability originates from multiple sources distributed across the perceptual hierarchy. We develop a hierarchical model of auditory processing comprised of three distinct levels: a Peripheral, tonotopic analysis, a Central analysis computing features found more centrally in the auditory system, and an Object analysis, where sounds are segmented into different streams. We model bistable perception within this system by applying adaptation, inhibition and noise into one or all of the three levels of the hierarchy. We evaluate a large ensemble of variations of this hierarchical model, where each model has a different configuration of adaptation, inhibition and noise. This approach avoids the assumption that a single configuration must be invoked to explain the data. Each model is evaluated based on its ability to replicate two hallmarks of bistability during auditory streaming: the selectivity of bistability to specific stimulus configurations, and the characteristic log-normal pattern of perceptual switches. Consistent with a distributed origin, a broad range of model parameters across this hierarchy lead to a plausible form of perceptual bistability.
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Affiliation(s)
- David F. Little
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Joel S. Snyder
- Department of Psychology, University of Nevada, Las Vegas; Las Vegas, Nevada, United States of America
| | - Mounya Elhilali
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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12
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Bauer B, Horbowy J, Rahikainen M, Kulatska N, Müller-Karulis B, Tomczak MT, Bartolino V. Model uncertainty and simulated multispecies fisheries management advice in the Baltic Sea. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0211320. [PMID: 30689653 PMCID: PMC6349338 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0211320] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2018] [Accepted: 01/13/2019] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Different ecosystem models often provide contrasting predictions (model uncertainty), which is perceived to be a major challenge impeding their use to support ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). The focus of this manuscript is to examine the extent of model disagreements which could impact management advice for EBFM in the central Baltic Sea. We compare how much three models (EwE, Gadget and a multispecies stock production model) differ in 1) their estimates of fishing mortality rates (Fs) satisfying alternative hypothetical management scenario objectives and 2) the outcomes of those scenarios in terms of performance indicators (spawning stock biomasses, catches, profits). Uncertainty in future environmental conditions affecting fish was taken into account by considering two seal population growth scenarios and two nutrient load scenarios. Differences in the development of the stocks, yields and profits exist among the models but the general patterns are also sufficiently similar to appear promising in the context of strategic fishery advice. Thus, we suggest that disagreements among the ecosystem models will not impede their use for providing strategic advice on how to reach management objectives that go beyond the traditional maximum yield targets and for informing on the potential consequences of pursuing such objectives. This is especially true for scenarios aiming at exploiting forage fish sprat and herring, for which the agreement was the largest among our models. However, the quantitative response to altering fishing pressure differed among models. This was due to the diverse environmental covariates and the different number of trophic relationships and their functional forms considered in the models. This suggests that ecosystem models can be used to provide quantitative advice only after more targeted research is conducted to gain a deeper understanding into the relationship between trophic links and fish population dynamics in the Baltic Sea.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barbara Bauer
- Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Germany
| | - Jan Horbowy
- Department of Fisheries Resources, National Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Gdynia, Poland
| | - Mika Rahikainen
- Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Natural Resources Institute Finland, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Nataliia Kulatska
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lysekil, Sweden
| | | | | | - Valerio Bartolino
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lysekil, Sweden
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13
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Bossier S, Palacz AP, Nielsen JR, Christensen A, Hoff A, Maar M, Gislason H, Bastardie F, Gorton R, Fulton EA. The Baltic Sea Atlantis: An integrated end-to-end modelling framework evaluating ecosystem-wide effects of human-induced pressures. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0199168. [PMID: 30028849 PMCID: PMC6054375 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0199168] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2018] [Accepted: 06/01/2018] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Achieving good environmental status in the Baltic Sea region requires decision support tools which are based on scientific knowledge across multiple disciplines. Such tools should integrate the complexity of the ecosystem and enable exploration of different natural and anthropogenic pressures such as climate change, eutrophication and fishing pressures in order to compare alternative management strategies. We present a new framework, with a Baltic implementation of the spatially-explicit end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model linked to two external models, to explore the different pressures on the marine ecosystem. The HBM-ERGOM initializes the Atlantis model with high-resolution physical-chemical-biological and hydrodynamic information while the FISHRENT model analyses the fisheries economics of the output of commercial fish biomass for the Atlantis terminal projection year. The Baltic Atlantis model composes 29 sub-areas, 9 vertical layers and 30 biological functional groups. The balanced calibration provides realistic levels of biomass for, among others, known stock sizes of top predators and of key fish species. Furthermore, it gives realistic levels of phytoplankton biomass and shows reasonable diet compositions and geographical distribution patterns for the functional groups. By simulating several scenarios of nutrient load reductions on the ecosystem and testing sensitivity to different fishing pressures, we show that the model is sensitive to those changes and capable of evaluating the impacts on different trophic levels, fish stocks, and fisheries associated with changed benthic oxygen conditions. We conclude that the Baltic Atlantis forms an initial basis for strategic management evaluation suited for conducting medium to long term ecosystem assessments which are of importance for a number of pan-Baltic stakeholders in relation to anthropogenic pressures such as eutrophication, climate change and fishing pressure, as well as changed biological interactions between functional groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sieme Bossier
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
- * E-mail:
| | - Artur P. Palacz
- International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project, Institute of Oceanology of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Sopot, Poland
| | - J. Rasmus Nielsen
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
| | - Asbjørn Christensen
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
| | - Ayoe Hoff
- Department of Food and Resource Economics, Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Marie Maar
- Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Henrik Gislason
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
| | - François Bastardie
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
| | | | - Elizabeth A. Fulton
- CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Battery Point, Tasmania, Australia
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Reusch TBH, Dierking J, Andersson HC, Bonsdorff E, Carstensen J, Casini M, Czajkowski M, Hasler B, Hinsby K, Hyytiäinen K, Johannesson K, Jomaa S, Jormalainen V, Kuosa H, Kurland S, Laikre L, MacKenzie BR, Margonski P, Melzner F, Oesterwind D, Ojaveer H, Refsgaard JC, Sandström A, Schwarz G, Tonderski K, Winder M, Zandersen M. The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2018; 4:eaar8195. [PMID: 29750199 PMCID: PMC5942908 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aar8195] [Citation(s) in RCA: 116] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2017] [Accepted: 03/27/2018] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thorsten B. H. Reusch
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Marine Ecology, Germany
- Corresponding author.
| | - Jan Dierking
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Marine Ecology, Germany
| | | | | | | | - Michele Casini
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Institute of Marine Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lysekil, Sweden
| | | | - Berit Hasler
- Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Klaus Hinsby
- Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | | | - Seifeddine Jomaa
- Department of Aquatic Ecosystem Analysis and Management, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ Magdeburg, Germany
| | | | - Harri Kuosa
- Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Sara Kurland
- Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Linda Laikre
- Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Brian R. MacKenzie
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
| | - Piotr Margonski
- National Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Gdynia, Poland
| | - Frank Melzner
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Marine Ecology, Germany
| | - Daniel Oesterwind
- Thuenen Institute–Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries, Rostock, Germany
| | - Henn Ojaveer
- Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | | | | | - Gerald Schwarz
- Thuenen Institute of Farm Economics, Braunschweig, Germany
| | | | - Monika Winder
- Department of Ecology, Environment, and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Marianne Zandersen
- Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
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15
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Goedegebuure M, Melbourne-Thomas J, Corney SP, McMahon CR, Hindell MA. Modelling southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina using an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0194950. [PMID: 29596456 PMCID: PMC5875804 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0194950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2017] [Accepted: 03/13/2018] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Higher trophic-level species are an integral component of any marine ecosystem. Despite their importance, methods for representing these species in end-to-end ecosystem models often have limited representation of life histories, energetics and behaviour. We built an individual-based model coupled with a dynamic energy budget for female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina to demonstrate a method for detailed representation of marine mammals. We aimed to develop a model which could i) simulate energy use and life histories, as well as breeding traits of southern elephant seals in an emergent manner, ii) project a stable population over time, and iii) have realistic population dynamics and structure based on emergent life history features (such as age at first breeding, lifespan, fecundity and (yearling) survival). We evaluated the model's ability to represent a stable population over long time periods (>10 generations), including the sensitivity of the emergent properties to variations in key parameters. Analyses indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in resource availability and energy requirements for the transition from pup to juvenile, and juvenile to adult stage. This was particularly the case for breeding success and yearling survival. This model is suitable for use as a standalone tool for investigating the impacts of changes to behaviour and population responses of southern elephant seals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Merel Goedegebuure
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7000 Australia
- Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tasmania 7000 Australia
| | - Jessica Melbourne-Thomas
- Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tasmania 7000 Australia
- Australian Antarctic Division, Channel Highway, Kingston Tasmania 7050 Australia
| | - Stuart P. Corney
- Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tasmania 7000 Australia
| | - Clive R. McMahon
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7000 Australia
- Sydney Institute of Marine Science, 19 Chowder Bay Road, Mosman, New South Wales 2088, Australia
| | - Mark A. Hindell
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7000 Australia
- Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tasmania 7000 Australia
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16
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Kaplan IC, Koehn LE, Hodgson EE, Marshall KN, Essington TE. Modeling food web effects of low sardine and anchovy abundance in the California Current. Ecol Modell 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.05.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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17
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Testa JM, Clark JB, Dennison WC, Donovan EC, Fisher AW, Ni W, Parker M, Scavia D, Spitzer SE, Waldrop AM, Vargas VM, Ziegler G. Ecological Forecasting and the Science of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay. Bioscience 2017. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/bix048] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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18
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Griffiths JR, Kadin M, Nascimento FJA, Tamelander T, Törnroos A, Bonaglia S, Bonsdorff E, Brüchert V, Gårdmark A, Järnström M, Kotta J, Lindegren M, Nordström MC, Norkko A, Olsson J, Weigel B, Žydelis R, Blenckner T, Niiranen S, Winder M. The importance of benthic-pelagic coupling for marine ecosystem functioning in a changing world. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:2179-2196. [PMID: 28132408 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13642] [Citation(s) in RCA: 111] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2016] [Revised: 12/22/2016] [Accepted: 01/06/2017] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Benthic-pelagic coupling is manifested as the exchange of energy, mass, or nutrients between benthic and pelagic habitats. It plays a prominent role in aquatic ecosystems, and it is crucial to functions from nutrient cycling to energy transfer in food webs. Coastal and estuarine ecosystem structure and function are strongly affected by anthropogenic pressures; however, there are large gaps in our understanding of the responses of inorganic nutrient and organic matter fluxes between benthic habitats and the water column. We illustrate the varied nature of physical and biological benthic-pelagic coupling processes and their potential sensitivity to three anthropogenic pressures - climate change, nutrient loading, and fishing - using the Baltic Sea as a case study and summarize current knowledge on the exchange of inorganic nutrients and organic material between habitats. Traditionally measured benthic-pelagic coupling processes (e.g., nutrient exchange and sedimentation of organic material) are to some extent quantifiable, but the magnitude and variability of biological processes are rarely assessed, preventing quantitative comparisons. Changing oxygen conditions will continue to have widespread effects on the processes that govern inorganic and organic matter exchange among habitats while climate change and nutrient load reductions may have large effects on organic matter sedimentation. Many biological processes (predation, bioturbation) are expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic drivers, but the outcomes for ecosystem function are largely unknown. We emphasize how improved empirical and experimental understanding of benthic-pelagic coupling processes and their variability are necessary to inform models that can quantify the feedbacks among processes and ecosystem responses to a changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer R Griffiths
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Martina Kadin
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Francisco J A Nascimento
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Tobias Tamelander
- Tvärminne Zoological Station, University of Helsinki, J.A. Palméns väg 260, 10900, Hangö, Finland
| | - Anna Törnroos
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, FI-20500, Turku, Finland
- Centre for Ocean Life, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kavalergården 6, 2920, Charlottenlund, Denmark
| | - Stefano Bonaglia
- Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Geology, Lund University, 22362, Lund, Sweden
| | - Erik Bonsdorff
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, FI-20500, Turku, Finland
| | - Volker Brüchert
- Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Anna Gårdmark
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skolgatan 6, 74242, Öregrund, Sweden
| | - Marie Järnström
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, FI-20500, Turku, Finland
| | - Jonne Kotta
- Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 14, 12618, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Martin Lindegren
- Centre for Ocean Life, National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Kavalergården 6, 2920, Charlottenlund, Denmark
| | - Marie C Nordström
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, FI-20500, Turku, Finland
| | - Alf Norkko
- Tvärminne Zoological Station, University of Helsinki, J.A. Palméns väg 260, 10900, Hangö, Finland
- Baltic Sea Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 106 91, Sweden
| | - Jens Olsson
- Department of Aquatic Resources, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skolgatan 6, 74242, Öregrund, Sweden
| | - Benjamin Weigel
- Environmental and Marine Biology, Åbo Akademi University, FI-20500, Turku, Finland
| | | | - Thorsten Blenckner
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Susa Niiranen
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Monika Winder
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 10691, Stockholm, Sweden
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19
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Bode M, Baker CM, Benshemesh J, Burnard T, Rumpff L, Hauser CE, Lahoz‐Monfort JJ, Wintle BA. Revealing beliefs: using ensemble ecosystem modelling to extrapolate expert beliefs to novel ecological scenarios. Methods Ecol Evol 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12703] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Michael Bode
- School of Biosciences University of Melbourne Melbourne Vic. 3010 Australia
| | - Christopher M. Baker
- School of Biosciences University of Melbourne Melbourne Vic. 3010 Australia
- School of Biological Sciences University of Queensland Brisbane Qld 4072 Australia
- CSIRO Brisbane Qld 4102 Australia
| | - Joe Benshemesh
- School of Life Sciences LaTrobe University Melbourne Vic. 3010 Australia
| | - Tim Burnard
- Birdlife Australia 60 Leicester St Carlton Melbourne Vic. 3010 Australia
| | - Libby Rumpff
- School of Biosciences University of Melbourne Melbourne Vic. 3010 Australia
| | - Cindy E. Hauser
- School of Biosciences University of Melbourne Melbourne Vic. 3010 Australia
| | | | - Brendan A. Wintle
- School of Biosciences University of Melbourne Melbourne Vic. 3010 Australia
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20
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Gudmundson S, Eklöf A, Wennergren U. Environmental variability uncovers disruptive effects of species' interactions on population dynamics. Proc Biol Sci 2016. [PMID: 26224705 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.1126] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
How species respond to changes in environmental variability has been shown for single species, but the question remains whether these results are transferable to species when incorporated in ecological communities. Here, we address this issue by analysing the same species exposed to a range of environmental variabilities when (i) isolated or (ii) embedded in a food web. We find that all species in food webs exposed to temporally uncorrelated environments (white noise) show the same type of dynamics as isolated species, whereas species in food webs exposed to positively autocorrelated environments (red noise) can respond completely differently compared with isolated species. This is owing to species following their equilibrium densities in a positively autocorrelated environment that in turn enables species-species interactions to come into play. Our results give new insights into species' response to environmental variation. They especially highlight the importance of considering both species' interactions and environmental autocorrelation when studying population dynamics in a fluctuating environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Gudmundson
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Division of Theoretical Biology, Linköping University, Linköping 581 83, Sweden
| | - Anna Eklöf
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Division of Theoretical Biology, Linköping University, Linköping 581 83, Sweden
| | - Uno Wennergren
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Division of Theoretical Biology, Linköping University, Linköping 581 83, Sweden
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21
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22
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23
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Abstract
Severe environmental problems documented in the Baltic Sea in the 1960s led to the 1974 creation of the Helsinki Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area. We introduce this special issue by briefly summarizing successes and failures of Baltic environmental management in the following 40 years. The loads of many polluting substances have been greatly reduced, but legacy pollution slows recovery. Top predator populations have recovered, and human exposure to potential toxins has been reduced. The cod stock has partially recovered. Nutrient loads are decreasing, but deep-water anoxia and cyanobacterial blooms remain extensive, and climate change threatens the advances made. Ecosystem-based management is the agreed principle, but in practice the various environmental problems are still handled separately, since we still lack both basic ecological knowledge and appropriate governance structures for managing them together, in a true ecosystem approach.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ragnar Elmgren
- />Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Thorsten Blenckner
- />Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Agneta Andersson
- />Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
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24
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Lindström T, Tildesley M, Webb C. A Bayesian ensemble approach for epidemiological projections. PLoS Comput Biol 2015; 11:e1004187. [PMID: 25927892 PMCID: PMC4415763 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 38] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/01/2014] [Accepted: 02/11/2015] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Mathematical models are powerful tools for epidemiology and can be used to compare control actions. However, different models and model parameterizations may provide different prediction of outcomes. In other fields of research, ensemble modeling has been used to combine multiple projections. We explore the possibility of applying such methods to epidemiology by adapting Bayesian techniques developed for climate forecasting. We exemplify the implementation with single model ensembles based on different parameterizations of the Warwick model run for the 2001 United Kingdom foot and mouth disease outbreak and compare the efficacy of different control actions. This allows us to investigate the effect that discrepancy among projections based on different modeling assumptions has on the ensemble prediction. A sensitivity analysis showed that the choice of prior can have a pronounced effect on the posterior estimates of quantities of interest, in particular for ensembles with large discrepancy among projections. However, by using a hierarchical extension of the method we show that prior sensitivity can be circumvented. We further extend the method to include a priori beliefs about different modeling assumptions and demonstrate that the effect of this can have different consequences depending on the discrepancy among projections. We propose that the method is a promising analytical tool for ensemble modeling of disease outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tom Lindström
- Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
- US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
- University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Michael Tildesley
- US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
- School of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Leicestershire, United Kingdom
| | - Colleen Webb
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America
- US National Institute of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
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25
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26
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Assessing social--ecological trade-offs to advance ecosystem-based fisheries management. PLoS One 2014; 9:e107811. [PMID: 25268117 PMCID: PMC4182428 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0107811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2014] [Accepted: 08/11/2014] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Modern resource management faces trade-offs in the provision of various ecosystem goods and services to humanity. For fisheries management to develop into an ecosystem-based approach, the goal is not only to maximize economic profits, but to consider equally important conservation and social equity goals. We introduce such a triple-bottom line approach to the management of multi-species fisheries using the Baltic Sea as a case study. We apply a coupled ecological-economic optimization model to address the actual fisheries management challenge of trading-off the recovery of collapsed cod stocks versus the health of ecologically important forage fish populations. Management strategies based on profit maximization would rebuild the cod stock to high levels but may cause the risk of stock collapse for forage species with low market value, such as Baltic sprat (Fig. 1A). Economically efficient conservation efforts to protect sprat would be borne almost exclusively by the forage fishery as sprat fishing effort and profits would strongly be reduced. Unless compensation is paid, this would challenge equity between fishing sectors (Fig. 1B). Optimizing equity while respecting sprat biomass precautionary levels would reduce potential profits of the overall Baltic fishery, but may offer an acceptable balance between overall profits, species conservation and social equity (Fig. 1C). Our case study shows a practical example of how an ecosystem-based fisheries management will be able to offer society options to solve common conflicts between different resource uses. Adding equity considerations to the traditional trade-off between economy and ecology will greatly enhance credibility and hence compliance to management decisions, a further footstep towards healthy fish stocks and sustainable fisheries in the world ocean.
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27
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Lassalle G, Bourdaud P, Saint-Béat B, Rochette S, Niquil N. A toolbox to evaluate data reliability for whole-ecosystem models: Application on the Bay of Biscay continental shelf food-web model. Ecol Modell 2014. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.04.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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28
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Niiranen S, Yletyinen J, Tomczak MT, Blenckner T, Hjerne O, Mackenzie BR, Müller-Karulis B, Neumann T, Meier HEM. Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2013; 19:3327-42. [PMID: 23818413 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2013] [Accepted: 05/30/2013] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susa Niiranen
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden; Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden
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