Biotic mechanisms of community stability shift along a precipitation gradient

Divergent driving mechanisms of community temporal stability in China's drylands

Climate change and anthropogenic activities are reshaping dryland ecosystems globally at an unprecedented pace, jeopardizing their stability. The stability of these ecosystems is crucial for maintaining ecological balance and supporting local communities. Yet, the mechanisms governing their stability are poorly understood, largely due to the scarcity of comprehensive field data. Here we show the patterns of community temporal stability and its determinants across an aridity spectrum by integrating a transect survey across China's drylands with remote sensing. Our results revealed a U-shaped relationship between community temporal stability and aridity, with a pivotal shift occurring around an aridity level of 0.88. In less arid areas (aridity level below 0.88), enhanced precipitation and biodiversity were associated with increased community productivity and stability. Conversely, in more arid zones (aridity level above 0.88), elevated soil organic carbon and biodiversity were linked to greater fluctuations in community productivity and reduced stability. Our study identifies a critical aridity threshold that precipitates significant changes in community stability in China's drylands, underscoring the importance of distinct mechanisms driving ecosystem stability in varying aridity contexts. These insights are pivotal for developing informed ecosystem management and policy strategies tailored to the unique challenges of dryland conservation.

Effects of protection and temperature variation on temporal stability in a marine reserve network

Understanding the drivers of ecosystem stability has been a key focus of modern ecology as the impacts of the Anthropocene become more prevalent and extreme. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are tools used globally to promote biodiversity and mediate anthropogenic impacts. However, assessing the stability of natural ecosystems and responses to management actions is inherently challenging due to the complex dynamics of communities with many interdependent taxa. Using a 12-year time series of subtidal community structure in an MPA network in the Channel Islands (United States), we estimated species interaction strength (competition and predation), prey species synchrony, and temporal stability in trophic networks, as well as temporal variation in sea surface temperature to explore the causal drivers of temporal stability at community and metacommunity scales. At the community scale, only trophic networks in MPAs at Santa Rosa Island showed greater temporal stability than reference sites, likely driven by reduced prey synchrony. Across islands, competition was sometimes greater and predation always greater in MPAs compared with reference sites. Increases in interaction strength resulted in lower temporal stability of trophic networks. Although MPAs reduced prey synchrony at the metacommunity scale, reductions were insufficient to stabilize trophic networks. In contrast, temporal variation in sea surface temperature had strong positive direct effects on stability at the regional scale and indirect effects at the local scale through reductions in species interaction strength. Although MPAs can be effective management strategies for protecting certain species or locations, our findings for this MPA network suggest that temperature variation has a stronger influence on metacommunity temporal stability by mediating species interactions and promoting a mosaic of spatiotemporal variation in community structure of trophic networks. By capturing the full spectrum of environmental variation in network planning, MPAs will have the greatest capacity to promote ecosystem stability in response to climate change.

Short-term robust plant overcompensatory growth was observed in a degraded alpine meadow on the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Plant overcompensatory growth (OCG) is an important mechanism by which plant communities adapt to environmental disturbance. However, it is not clear whether plant OCG can occur in degraded alpine meadows. Here, we conducted a mowing experiment in an alpine meadow at three degradation levels (i.e., severe degradation, SD; moderate degradation, MD; and light degradation, LD) on the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau from 2018 to 2020 to investigate plant OCG and its relationships with soil available nutrients, plant nutrient use efficiency (i.e., nitrogen use efficiency, NUE; and phosphorus use efficiency, PUE), and precipitation. The results showed that 1) the OCG of the plant community generally occurred across all degradation levels, and the OCG strength of the plant community decreased with mowing duration. Moreover, the OCG strength of the plant community in the SD treatment was significantly greater than that in the MD and LD treatments after two years of mowing (p < 0.05). 2) In LD and MD, the soil nitrate nitrogen (NO3-) and available phosphorus (AP) concentrations exhibited a decreasing trend (p < 0.05), while the soil ammonium nitrogen (NH4+) concentration did not change from 2018 to 2020 (p > 0.05). In the SD treatment, the soil NO3- concentration tended to decrease (p < 0.05), the NH4+ concentration tended to increase (p < 0.05), and the AP concentration exhibited an inverse parabolic trend (p < 0.05) from 2018 to 2020. 3) From 2018 to 2020, plant NUE and PUE exhibited decreasing trends at all degradation levels. 4) Plant nutrient use efficiency, which is regulated by complex plant-soil interactions, strongly controlled the OCG of the plant community along each degradation gradient. Moreover, precipitation not only directly promoted the OCG of the plant community but also indirectly affected it by regulating the structure of the plant community and plant nutrient use efficiency. These results suggest that the OCG of the plant community in degraded alpine meadows may benefit not only from the strong self-regulating capacity of the plant-soil system but also from humid climatic conditions.

Grazing and precipitation addition reduces the temporal stability of aboveground biomass in a typical steppe of Chinese Loess Plateau

Few studies on the effects of human activities and global climate change on temporal stability have considered either grazing or precipitation addition (PA). How community stability responds to the interaction between PA and grazing in a single experiment remains unknown. We studied the impact of grazing and PA on the temporal stability of communities in four years field experiment conducted in a typical steppe, adopting a randomized complete block design with grazing was the main block factor and PA was the split block factor. Grazing and PA had negative impacts on the temporal stability of communities. PA reduced the community stability through decreasing the stability of subordinate and community species richness (SR), whereas grazing reduced the community stability through decreasing the stability of the SR and dominant species. In contrast, grazing and PA maintained community stability through increasing species asynchronism and promoting the decoupling of asynchronism and stability. Our results revealed the different mechanisms of grazing and PA on community stability. Exploring the response characteristics of population dynamics to global climate change and pasture management is key to understanding future climate scenarios and changes in community stability under grazing.

Grassland stability decreases with increasing number of global change factors: A meta-analysis

Experiments manipulating a single global change factor (GCF) have provided increasing evidence that global environmental changes, such as eutrophication, precipitation change, and warming, generally affect the temporal stability of grassland productivity. Whether the combined impact of global changes on grassland stability increases as the number of global changes increases remains unknown. Using a meta-analysis of 673 observations from 143 sites worldwide, including 7 different GCFs, we examined the responses of grassland temporal stability of productivity to increasing numbers of GCFs. We quantified the links between community stability, biotic factors (i.e., species richness, species stability, and species asynchrony), and abiotic factors (i.e., aridity index, experimental duration, and experimental intensity). Although inconsistent responses of community stability were found with different GCF types and combinations, when integrating existing GCFs studies and ignoring the identity of GCFs, we found a general decrease in community stability as the number of GCFs increases, but the main drivers of community stability varied with the numbers of GCFs. Specifically, one GCF mainly reduced species stability through species richness and thus weakened community stability. Two GCFs weakened community stability via independently weakening species stability and species asynchrony. Three GCFs reduce community stability mainly via independently weakening species asynchrony. Moreover, for single factor, the impact of GCFs on community stability was weaker under dryer conditions, but stronger when two or three factors were manipulated. In addition, the negative effect of GCFs on community stability was weaker with increasing experimental duration. Our study reveals that reduced community stability with increasing numbers of GCFs is caused by a shift from reduced species stability to reduced species asynchrony, suggesting that persistent global changes will destabilize grassland productivity by reducing asynchronous dynamics among species in response to natural environmental fluctuations.

Resistance and resilience to invasion is stronger in synchronous than compensatory communities

While community synchrony is a key framework for predicting ecological constancy, the interplay between community synchrony and ecological invasions remains unclear. Yet the degree of synchrony in a resident community may influence its resistance and resilience to the introduction of an invasive species. Here we used a generalizable mathematical framework, constructed with a modified Lotka-Volterra competition model, to first simulate resident communities across a range of competitive strengths and species' responses to environmental fluctuations, which yielded communities that ranged from strongly synchronous to compensatory. We then invaded these communities at different timesteps with invaders of varying demographic traits, after which we quantified the resident community's susceptibility to initial invasion attempts (resistance) and the degree to which community synchrony was altered after invasion (resiliency of synchrony). We found that synchronous communities were not only more resistant but also more resilient to invasion than compensatory communities, likely due to stronger competition between resident species and thus lower cumulative abundances in compensatory communities, providing greater opportunities for invasion. The growth rate of the invader was most influenced by the resident and invader competition coefficients and the growth rate of the invader species. Our findings support prioritizing the conservation of compensatory and weakly synchronous communities which may be at increased risk of invasion.

Warming-driven indirect effects on alpine grasslands: short-term gravel encroachment rapidly reshapes community structure and reduces community stability

The community stability is the main ability to resist and be resilient to climate changes. In a world of climate warming and melting glaciers, alpine gravel encroachment was occurring universally and threatening hillside grassland ecosystem. Gravel encroachment caused by climate warming and glacial melting may alter community structure and community stability in alpine meadow. Yet, the effects of climate warming-induced gravel encroachment on grassland communities are unknown. Here, a 1-year short-term field experiment was conducted to explore the early stage drive process of gravel encroachment on community structure and stability at four different gravel encroachment levels 0%, 30%, 60%, and 90% gravel coverage at an alpine meadow on the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau, by analyzing the changes of dominant species stability and species asynchrony to the simulated gravel encroachment processes. Gravel encroachment rapidly changed the species composition and species ranking of alpine meadow plant community in a short period of time. Specifically, community stability of alpine meadow decreased by 61.78-79.48%, which may be due to the reduced dominant species stability and species asynchrony. Species asynchrony and dominant species stability were reduced by 2.65-17.39% and 46.51-67.97%, respectively. The results of this study demonstrate that gravel encroachment presents a severe negative impact on community structure and stability of alpine meadow in the short term, the longer term and comprehensive study should be conducted to accurate prediction of global warming-induced indirect effects on alpine grassland ecosystems.

Effects of intra-annual precipitation patterns on grassland productivity moderated by the dominant species phenology

Phenology and productivity are important functional indicators of grassland ecosystems. However, our understanding of how intra-annual precipitation patterns affect plant phenology and productivity in grasslands is still limited. Here, we conducted a two-year precipitation manipulation experiment to explore the responses of plant phenology and productivity to intra-annual precipitation patterns at the community and dominant species levels in a temperate grassland. We found that increased early growing season precipitation enhanced the above-ground biomass of the dominant rhizome grass, Leymus chinensis, by advancing its flowering date, while increased late growing season precipitation increased the above-ground biomass of the dominant bunchgrass, Stipa grandis, by delaying senescence. The complementary effects in phenology and biomass of the dominant species, L. chinensis and S. grandis, maintained stable dynamics of the community above-ground biomass under intra-annual precipitation pattern variations. Our results highlight the critical role that intra-annual precipitation and soil moisture patterns play in the phenology of temperate grasslands. By understanding the response of phenology to intra-annual precipitation patterns, we can more accurately predict the productivity of temperate grasslands under future climate change.

Soil biota diversity and plant diversity both contributed to ecosystem stability in grasslands

Understanding the effects of diversity on ecosystem stability in the context of global change has become an important goal of recent ecological research. However, the effects of diversity at multiple scales and trophic levels on ecosystem stability across environmental gradients remain unclear. Here, we conducted a field survey of α-, β-, and γ-diversity of plants and soil biota (bacteria, fungi, and nematodes) and estimated the temporal ecosystem stability of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in 132 plots on the Mongolian Plateau. After climate and soil environmental variables were controlled for, both the α- and β-diversity of plants and soil biota (mainly via nematodes) together with precipitation explained most variation in ecosystem stability. These findings evidence that the diversity of both soil biota and plants contributes to ecosystem stability. Model predictions of the future effects of global changes on terrestrial ecosystem stability will require field observations of diversity of both plants and soil biota.

Responses of terrestrial ecosystem productivity and community structure to intra-annual precipitation patterns: A meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The productivity and community structures of terrestrial ecosystems are regulated by total precipitation amount and intra-annual precipitation patterns, which have been altered by climate change. The timing and sizes of precipitation events are the two key factors of intra-annual precipitation patterns and potentially drive ecosystem function by influencing soil moisture. However, the generalizable patterns of how intra-annual precipitation patterns affect the productivity and community structures of ecosystems remain unclear.

METHODS

We synthesized 633 observations from 17 studies and conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate the influences of intra-annual precipitation patterns on the productivity and community structures of terrestrial ecosystems. By classifying intra-annual precipitation patterns, we also assess the importance of the magnitude and timing of precipitation events on plant productivity.

RESULTS

Our results showed that the intra-annual precipitation patterns decreased diversity by 6.3% but increased belowground net primary productivity, richness, and relative abundance by 16.8%, 10.5%, and 45.0%, respectively. Notably, we found that the timing uniformity of precipitation events was more important for plant productivity, while the plant community structure benefited from the increased precipitation variability. In addition, the relationship between plant productivity and community structure and soil moisture dynamic response was more consistent with the nonlinear model.

COMCLUSIONS

The patterns of the responses of plant productivity and community structure to altered intra-annual precipitation patterns were revealed, and the importance of the timing uniformity of precipitation events to the functioning of production systems was highlighted, which is essential to enhancing understanding of the structures and functions of ecosystems subjected to altered precipitation patterns and predicting their changes.

Biodiversity stabilizes plant communities through statistical-averaging effects rather than compensatory dynamics

Understanding the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem stability is a central goal of ecologists. Recent studies have concluded that biodiversity increases community temporal stability by increasing the asynchrony between the dynamics of different species. Theoretically, this enhancement can occur through either increased between-species compensatory dynamics, a fundamentally biological mechanism; or through an averaging effect, primarily a statistical mechanism. Yet it remains unclear which mechanism is dominant in explaining the diversity-stability relationship. We address this issue by mathematically decomposing asynchrony into components separately quantifying the compensatory and statistical-averaging effects. We applied the new decomposition approach to plant survey and experimental data from North American grasslands. We show that statistical averaging, rather than compensatory dynamics, was the principal mediator of biodiversity effects on community stability. Our simple decomposition approach helps integrate concepts of stability, asynchrony, statistical averaging, and compensatory dynamics, and suggests that statistical averaging, rather than compensatory dynamics, is the primary means by which biodiversity confers ecological stability.

Critical transition of multifunctional stability induced by nitrogen enrichment in grasslands differing in degradation severity

Nitrogen (N) enrichment poses a severe threat to ecosystem multifunctionality. Given increasing variability of ecosystem functioning and uncertainty under global change, a pressing question is how N enrichment affects temporal stability of multiple functions (i.e., 'multifunctional stability'). Whether the responses of multifunctional stability to N enrichment change with external disturbance, such as grasslands with different degradation statuses, remains unclear. We conducted multi-level N enrichment experiments at four grassland sites with no, moderate, severe, and extreme degradation statuses in Inner Mongolia, China. We measured temporal stability of five functions, comprising aboveground net primary productivity, soil total carbon (C) and N storage, and soil microbial biomass C and N storage, to explore how multifunctional stability responded to N enrichment. The temporal stability of most individual functions and multifunctional stability decreased sharply when N input exceeded 20 g N m^-2 y^-1 in the non-, moderately, and severely degraded grasslands, whereas the threshold declined to 10 g N m^-2 y^-1 in the extremely degraded grassland. The relative importance of plant and soil microbes in regulating multifunctional stability varied along the degradation gradient. In particular, plant species asynchrony and species richness showed strong positive relationships with multifunctional stability in the non- and moderately degraded grasslands, whereas soil microbial diversity, especially bacterial diversity, was positively associated with multifunctional stability in the severely and extremely degraded grasslands. Overall, our findings identified a critical threshold for N-induced multifunctional stability and called for context-specific biodiversity conservation strategies to buffer the negative effect of N enrichment on grassland ecosystem stability.

Intra-annual growing season climate variability drives the community intra-annual stability of a temperate grassland by altering intra-annual species asynchrony and richness in Inner Mongolia, China

Understanding the factors that regulate the functioning of our ecosystems in response to environmental changes can help to maintain the stable provisioning of ecosystem services to mankind. This is especially relevant given the increased variability of environmental conditions due to human activities. In particular, maintaining a stable production and plant biomass during the growing season (intra‐annual stability) despite pervasive and directional changes in temperature and precipitation through time can help to secure food supply to wild animals, livestock, and humans. Here, we conducted a 29‐year field observational study in a temperate grassland to explore how the intra‐annual stability of primary productivity is influenced by biotic and abiotic variables through time. We found that intra‐annual precipitation variability in the growing season indirectly influenced the community intra‐annual biomass stability by its negative effect on intra‐annual species asynchrony. While the intra‐annual temperature variability in the growing season indirectly altered community intra‐annual biomass stability through affecting the intra‐annual species richness. At the same time, although the intra‐annual biomass stability of the dominant species and the dominant functional group were insensitive to climate variability, they also promoted the stable community biomass to a certain extent. Our results indicate that ongoing intra‐annual climate variability affects community intra‐annual biomass stability in the temperate grassland, which has important theoretical significance for us to take active measures to deal with climate change.

Consistent stabilizing effects of plant diversity across spatial scales and climatic gradients

Biodiversity has widely been documented to enhance local community stability but whether such stabilizing effects of biodiversity extend to broader scales remains elusive. Here, we investigated the relationships between biodiversity and community stability in natural plant communities from quadrat (1 m²) to plot (400 m²) and regional (5-214 km²) scales and across broad climatic conditions, using an extensive plant community dataset from the National Ecological Observatory Network. We found that plant diversity provided consistent stabilizing effects on total community abundance across three nested spatial scales and climatic gradients. The strength of the stabilizing effects of biodiversity increased modestly with spatial scale and decreased as precipitation seasonality increased. Our findings illustrate the generality of diversity-stability theory across scales and climatic gradients, which provides a robust framework for understanding ecosystem responses to biodiversity and climate changes.

Functional identity of leaf dry matter content regulates community stability in the northern Tibetan grasslands

Biodiversity-stability mechanisms have been the focus of many long-term community stability studies. Community functional composition (i.e., functional diversity and functional identity of community plant functional traits) is critical for community stability; however, this topic has received less attention in large-scale studies. Here, we combined a field survey of biodiversity and plant functional traits in 22 alpine grassland sites throughout the northern Tibetan Plateau with 20 years of satellite-sensed proxy data (enhanced vegetation index) of community productivity to identify the factors influencing community stability. Our results showed that functional composition influenced community stability the most, explaining 61.71% of the variation in community stability (of which functional diversity explained 18.56% and functional identity explained 43.15%), which was a higher contribution than that of biodiversity (Berger-Parker index and species evenness; 35.04%). Structural equation modeling suggested that functional identity strongly affected community stability, whereas biodiversity had a minor impact. Furthermore, functional identity of leaf dry matter content regulated community stability by enhancing species dominance (Berger-Parker index). Our findings demonstrate that functional composition, specifically functional identity, plays a key role in community stability, highlighting the importance of functional identity in understanding and revealing the stabilizing mechanisms in these fragile alpine ecosystems which are subjected to increasing environmental fluctuations.

Different contributions of plant diversity and soil properties to the community stability in the arid desert ecosystem

As a one of the focuses of ecological research, understanding the regulation of plant diversity on community stability is helpful to reveal the adaption of plant to environmental changes. However, the relationship between plant diversity and community stability is still controversial due to the scale effect of its influencing factors. In this study, we compared the changes in community stability and different plant diversity (i.e., species, functional, and phylogenetic diversities) between three communities (i.e., riparian forest, ecotone community, and desert shrubs), and across three spatial scales (i.e., 100, 400, and 2500 m²), and then quantified the contribution of soil properties and plant diversity to community stability by using structural equation model (SEM) in the Ebinur Lake Basin Nature Reserve of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in the NW China. The results showed that: (1) community stability differed among three communities (ecotone community > desert shrubs > riparian forest). The stability of three communities all decreased with the increase of spatial scale (2) species diversity, phylogenetic richness and the mean pairwise phylogenetic distance were higher in ecotone community than that in desert shrubs and riparian forest, while the mean nearest taxa distance showed as riparian forest > ecotone community > desert shrubs. (3) Soil ammonium nitrogen and total phosphorus had the significant direct negative and positive effects on the community stability, respectively. Soil ammonium nitrogen and total phosphorus also indirectly affected community stability by adjusting plant diversity. The interaction among species, functional and phylogenetic diversities also regulated the variation of community stability across the spatial scales. Our results suggested that the effect of plant diversities on community stability were greater than that of soil factors. The asynchronous effect caused by the changes in species composition and functional traits among communities had a positive impact on the stability. Our study provided a theoretical support for the conservation and management of biodiversity and community functions in desert areas.

Plant diversity reduces satellite-observed phenological variability in wetlands at a national scale

Plant diversity may enhance stability of ecosystem function and its satellite-derived indicators. However, its potential to stabilize phenology, or seasonal changes in plant function, is little understood, especially in understudied systems with high biodiversity potential such as wetlands. Using a large sample of U.S. wetlands and a new satellite-based indicator of phenological stability, we found that plant diversity was negatively associated with interannual phenological variability after controlling for covariates representing climate, site conditions, and spectral fluctuations. Furthermore, plant diversity and covariates better explained phenological variability than stability in annually summarized satellite-based biomass indicators used by earlier studies. Last, a subsequent path analysis indicated that phenological variability could mediate plant diversity relationship with the latter stability. Our results suggest that contributions of plant diversity to seasonality of ecosystems may have a stabilizing role in their functioning and offer a new basis for assessing biodiversity-stability relationships across broad geographic extents.

Herbivory and Drought Reduce the Temporal Stability of Herbaceous Cover by Increasing Synchrony in a Semi-arid Savanna

Ecological stability in plant communities is shaped by bottom-up processes like environmental resource fluctuations and top-down controls such as herbivory, each of which have demonstrated direct effects but may also act indirectly by altering plant community dynamics. These indirect effects, called biotic stability mechanisms, have been studied across environmental gradients, but few studies have assessed the importance of top-down controls on biotic stability mechanisms in conjunction with bottom-up processes. Here we use a long-term herbivore exclusion experiment in central Kenya to explore the joint effects of drought and herbivory (bottom-up and top-down limitation, respectively) on three biotic stability mechanisms: (1) species asynchrony, in which a decline in one species is compensated for by a rise in another, (2) stable dominant species driving overall stability, and (3) the portfolio effect, in which a community property is distributed among multiple species. We calculated the temporal stability of herbaceous cover and biotic stability mechanisms over a 22-year time series and with a moving window to examine changes through time. Both drought and herbivory additively reduced asynchronous dynamics, leading to lower stability during droughts and under high herbivore pressure. This effect is likely attributed to a reduction in palatable dominant species under higher herbivory, which creates space for subordinate species to fluctuate synchronously in response to rainfall variability. Dominant species population stability promoted community stability, an effect that did not vary with precipitation but depended on herbivory. The portfolio effect was not important for stability in this system. Our results demonstrate that this system is naturally dynamic, and a future of increasing drought may reduce its stability. However, these effects will in turn be amplified or buffered depending on changes in herbivore communities and their direct and indirect impacts on plant community dynamics.

Long-term drought aggravates instability of alpine grassland productivity to extreme climatic event

The frequency and severity of extreme weather events are increasing and expected to increase more in the future together with global change. However, how extreme events and global change factors interactively influence community structures and ecosystem processes is largely unknown. Here, we investigated responses of temporal stability and resilience of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of an alpine meadow to an extreme flooding event under different treatments of experimental drought and clipping. We found that ecosystems that were exposed to drought treatments for three years significantly decreased temporal stability of community productivity but increased resilience to flooding, whereas their resistance to or recovery from flooding did not change. Neither clipping nor its interaction with drought altered responses of these community stability metrics to flooding. Drought treatments significantly decreased plant species richness, asynchrony and dominant species stability, leading to the decrease in temporal stability and the increase in resilience in response to the extreme flooding event. We also revealed that the change in species asynchrony was the dominant impact pathway determining the responses of resilience and temporal stability to flooding. Our results highlight that the alpine grassland experiencing multi-year drought may aggravate instability of community productivity to extreme climatic events by reducing species asynchrony.

Independent Effects of Species Removal and Asynchrony on Invariability of an Intertidal Rocky Shore Community

Ecological stability depends on interactions between different levels of biological organization. The insurance effects occur when increasing species diversity leads to more temporally invariable (i.e., more stable) community-level properties, due in part to asynchronous population-level fluctuations. While the study of insurance effects has received considerable attention, the role of dominant species that contribute with particular functional traits across different level of organizations is less understood. Using a field-based manipulative experiment, we investigated how species richness and different types of parameters at the population level, such as the invariability of dominants, population invariability, and population asynchrony, influence the community invariability. The experiment involved the repetitive removal of the canopy forming alga Mazzaella laminarioides (hereafter “Mazzaella”) during 32 months in two rocky intertidal sites of northern-central Chile. We predicted that the invariability of dominants enhances community invariability, that the effect of multispecies population-level parameters on community invariability are dependent on species richness, and that subdominant algae are unable to fully compensate the loss of canopies of the dominant species. Biomass of algae and mobile invertebrates was quantified over time. We observed independent effects of Mazzaella removal and community-wide asynchrony on community invariability. While canopy removal reduced community invariability, population asynchrony boosted community invariability regardless of the presence of canopies. In addition, filamentous and foliose algae were unable to compensate the loss of biomass triggered by the experimental removal of Mazzaella. Canopy removal led to a severe decrement in the biomass of macrograzers, while, at the same time, increased the biomass of mesograzers. Asynchrony stemmed from compensatory trophic responses of mesograzers to increased abundances of opportunistic algae. Thus, further work on consumer-resource interactions will improve our understanding of the links between population- and community-level aspects of stability.

Impacts of nutrient reduction on temporal β-diversity of rotifers: A 19-year limnology case study on Lake Wuli, China

There have been many studies on the effects of eutrophication on beta diversity (β-diversity) of species assemblages. However, few studies have focused on the effects of nutrient reduction on β-diversity and community structure, and long-time series analyses are particularly scarce. We conducted a 19-year case study on the impacts of management intervention on the temporal β-diversity of aquatic grazers in a lake at the Yangtze River Basin. In our study, we compared the changes in temporal β-diversity as well as its two components, nestedness and turnover, and the synchrony of the rotifer community after management intervention. Our results showed that while the abundance of some sensitive species increased, there was no trend in species richness. Moreover, both the seasonality and interannual stabilities of rotifer assemblages increased. The species synchrony decreased in both spring and summer after management intervention. We also found that management intervention significantly reduced nutrient concentrations but not water clarity and phytoplankton abundance. The total nitrogen (TN): total phosphorous (TP) ratio was reduced after management intervention, causing an increase in the abundance of cyanobacteria that may contribute to the increase of rotifer synchrony in autumn. Our results imply that stable environmental fluctuations after management intervention may increase temporal β-diversity and stability of herbivorous assemblages. However, imbalanced changes in TN and TP after management intervention may weaken the top-down control of zooplankton on phytoplankton and slow down water clarity improvement.

Faunal communities mediate the effects of plant richness, drought, and invasion on ecosystem multifunctional stability

Understanding the stability of ecosystem multifunctionality is imperative for maintaining ecosystem health and sustainability under augmented global change. However it remains unknown whether and how biological communities mediate multifunctional stability in response to biodiversity loss and disturbances. Here, we conducted a 3-year experiment by exposing 270 plant communities of four plant richness levels, i.e., 1, 2, 4, or 8 species, to drought and exotic plant invasion disturbances. Then, the direct effects of plant richness, drought and invasion, and their indirect effects mediated by the stability of plant, litter-faunal, and soil-faunal communities on multifunctional stability were disentangled. We found that plant richness increased, while drought and invasion decreased ecosystem multifunctional stability, which were mediated by plant or faunal community stability. By incorporating the stability of communities into the complex ecological mechanisms, the completeness and goodness of ecological models for explaining and maintaining the stability of ecosystem multifunctionality will be improved.

Temperature Mediates the Dynamic of MODIS NPP in Alpine Grassland on the Tibetan Plateau, 2001–2019

Although alpine grassland net primary productivity (NPP) plays an important role in balancing the carbon cycle and is extremely vulnerable to climate factors, on the Tibetan Plateau, the generalized effect of climate factors on the NPP in areas with humid and arid conditions is still unknown. Hence, we determined the effects of precipitation and temperature on the MODIS NPP in alpine grassland areas from 2001 to 2019 according to information from humid and arid climatic regions. On a spatial scale, we found that temperature generated a larger effect on the NPP than precipitation did in humid regions, but as a primary factor, precipitation had an impact on the NPP in arid regions. These results suggest that temperature and precipitation are the primary limiting factors for plant growth in humid and arid regions. We also found that temperature produced a greater effect on the NPP in humid regions than in arid regions, but no significant differences were observed in the effects of precipitation on the NPP in humid and arid regions. In a time series (2001–2019), the effects of precipitation and temperature on the NPP presented fluctuating decrease (R2 = 0.28, p < 0.05) and increase (R2 = 0.24, p < 0.05) trends in arid regions. However, the effect of the climate on the NPP remained stable in humid regions. In both humid and arid regions, the dynamics of the NPP from 2001 to 2019 were mediated by an increase in temperature. Specifically, 35.9% and 2.57% of the dynamic NPP in humid regions and 45.1 and 7.53% of the dynamic NPP in arid regions were explained by variations in the temperature and precipitation, respectively. Our findings highlighted that grassland areas in humid regions can adapt to dynamic climates, but plants in arid regions are sensitive to changes in the climate. These findings can increase our understanding of climate and ecological responses and provide a framework for adapting management practices.

Stability response of alpine meadow communities to temperature and precipitation changes on the Northern Tibetan Plateau

Biomass temporal stability plays a key role in maintaining sustainable ecosystem functions and services of grasslands, and climate change has exerted a profound impact on plant biomass. However, it remains unclear how the community biomass stability in alpine meadows responds to changes in some climate factors (e.g., temperature and precipitation). Long‐term field aboveground biomass monitoring was conducted in four alpine meadows (Haiyan [HY], Henan [HN], Gande [GD], and Qumalai [QML]) on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. We found that climate factors and ecological factors together affected the community biomass stability and only the stability of HY had a significant decrease over the study period. The community biomass stability at each site was positively correlated with both the stability of the dominant functional group and functional groups asynchrony. The effect of dominant functional groups on community stability decreased with the increase of the effect of functional groups asynchrony on community stability and there may be a ‘trade‐off’ relationship between the effects of these two factors on community stability. Climatic factors directly or indirectly affect community biomass stability by influencing the stability of the dominant functional group or functional groups asynchrony. Air temperature and precipitation indirectly affected the community stability of HY and HN, but air temperature in the growing season and nongrowing season had direct negative and direct positive effects on the community stability of GD and QML, respectively. The underlying mechanisms varied between community composition and local climate conditions. Our findings highlighted the role of dominant functional group and functional groups asynchrony in maintaining community biomass stability in alpine meadows and we highlighted the importance of the environmental context when exploring the stability influence mechanism. Studies of community stability in alpine meadows along with different precipitation and temperature gradients are needed to improve our comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms controlling alpine meadow stability.

The long and the short of it: Mechanisms of synchronous and compensatory dynamics across temporal scales

Synchronous dynamics (fluctuations that occur in unison) are universal phenomena with widespread implications for ecological stability. Synchronous dynamics can amplify the destabilizing effect of environmental variability on ecosystem functions such as productivity, whereas the inverse, compensatory dynamics, can stabilize function. Here we combine simulation and empirical analyses to elucidate mechanisms that underlie patterns of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics. In both simulated and empirical communities, we show that synchronous and compensatory dynamics are not mutually exclusive but instead can vary by timescale. Our simulations identify multiple mechanisms that can generate timescale‐specific patterns, including different environmental drivers, diverse life histories, dispersal, and non‐stationary dynamics. We find that traditional metrics for quantifying synchronous dynamics are often biased toward long‐term drivers and may miss the importance of short‐term drivers. Our findings indicate key mechanisms to consider when assessing synchronous versus compensatory dynamics and our approach provides a pathway for disentangling these dynamics in natural systems.

Quantifying Drought Resistance of Drylands in Northern China from 1982 to 2015: Regional Disparity in Drought Resistance

Drylands are expected to be affected by greater global drought variability in the future; consequently, how dryland ecosystems respond to drought events needs urgent attention. In this study, the Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evaporation Index (SPEI) were employed to quantify the resistance of ecosystem productivity to drought events in drylands of northern China between 1982 and 2015. The relationships and temporal trends of resistance and drought characteristics, which included length, severity, and interval, were examined. The temporal trends of resistance responded greatest to those of drought length, and drought length was the most sensitive and had the strongest negative effect with respect to resistance. Resistance decreased with increasing drought length and did not recover with decreasing drought length in hyper-arid regions after 2004, but did recover in arid and semi-arid regions from 2004 and in dry sub-humid regions from 1997. We reason that the regional differences in resistance may result from the seed bank and compensatory effects of plant species under drought events. In particular, this study implies that the ecosystem productivity of hyper-arid regions is the most vulnerable to drought events, and the drought–resistance and drought–recovery interactions are likely to respond abnormally or even shift under ongoing drought change.

Species richness and asynchrony maintain the stability of primary productivity against seasonal climatic variability

The stability of grassland communities informs us about the ability of grasslands to provide reliable services despite environmental fluctuations. There is large evidence that higher plant diversity and asynchrony among species stabilizes grassland primary productivity against interannual climate variability. Whether biodiversity and asynchrony among species and functional groups stabilize grassland productivity against seasonal climate variability remains unknown. Here, using 29-year monitoring of a temperate grassland, we found lower community temporal stability with higher seasonal climate variability (temperature and precipitation). This was due to a combination of processes including related species richness, species asynchrony, functional group asynchrony and dominant species stability. Among those processes, functional group asynchrony had the strongest contribution to community compensatory dynamics and community stability. Based on a long-term study spanning 29 years, our results indicate that biodiversity and compensatory dynamics a key for the stable provision of grassland function against increasing seasonal climate variability.

Environmental risk in an age of biotic impoverishment

The science underpinning biodiversity's importance to human well-being seems to be taken up little by environmental decision makers. Since the 1950s, ecological, evolutionary and environmental research has pointed to the importance of biodiversity as a significant factor influencing the stability and functioning of population, community, eco- and Earth-systems and the environmental services they provide. Despite its prominence and the tremendous contributions to our understanding of the natural world, this field of research, which we term 'bio-functional ecology', seems not to have had the impact it should. Biotic impoverishment, the loss of biodiversity across all scales and across all taxa, continues to worsen. We suggest that redirecting ecology's emphasis on ecological stability to a focus on environmental risk could help bring bio-functional ecology research more into the environmental arena. Rather than managing biodiversity as an agent of ecological stability, biodiversity could be managed as a natural capital asset in a portfolio of social, human, produced and financial capital assets. This would allow using portfolio theory to identify options for minimizing environmental risk while ensuring human well-being. In this essay, we argue that environmental risk more accurately captures people's motivation to preserve and manage biodiversity than does ecological stability. This redirection from stability to risk may provide greater clarity for decision makers and people in general as to why biodiversity is fundamentally linked to human well-being. In doing so, we can help curb the currently unabated spread of biotic impoverishment across the biosphere.

Species relationships in the extremes and their influence on community stability

Synchrony among population fluctuations of multiple coexisting species has a major impact on community stability, i.e. on the relative temporal constancy of aggregate properties such as total community biomass. However, synchrony and its impacts are usually measured using covariance methods, which do not account for whether species abundances may be more correlated when species are relatively common than when they are scarce, or vice versa. Recent work showed that species commonly exhibit such 'asymmetric tail associations'. We here consider the influence of asymmetric tail associations on community stability. We develop a 'skewness ratio' which quantifies how much species relationships and tail associations modify stability. The skewness ratio complements the classic variance ratio and related metrics. Using multi-decadal grassland datasets, we show that accounting for tail associations gives new viewpoints on synchrony and stability; e.g. species associations can alter community stability differentially for community crashes or explosions to high values, a fact not previously detectable. Species associations can mitigate explosions of community abundance to high values, increasing one aspect of stability, while simultaneously exacerbating crashes to low values, decreasing another aspect of stability; or vice versa. Our work initiates a new, more flexible paradigm for exploring species relationships and community stability. This article is part of the theme issue 'Synchrony and rhythm interaction: from the brain to behavioural ecology'.

Individual-based multiple-unit dissimilarity: novel indices and null model for assessing temporal variability in community composition

Beta-diversity was originally defined spatially, i.e., as variation in community composition among sites in a region. However, the concept of beta-diversity has since been expanded to temporal contexts. This is referred to as "temporal beta-diversity", and most approaches are simply an extension of spatial beta-diversity. The persistence and turnover of individuals over time is a unique feature of temporal beta-diversity. Nakadai (2020) introduced the "individual-based beta-diversity" concept, and provided novel indices to evaluate individual turnover and compositional shift by comparing individual turnover between two periods at a given site. However, the proposed individual-based indices are applicable only to pairwise dissimilarity, not to multiple-temporal (or more generally, multiple-unit) dissimilarity. Here, individual-based beta-diversity indices are extended to multiple-unit cases. In addition, a novel type of random permutation criterion related to these multiple-unit indices for detecting patterns of individual persistence is introduced in the present study. To demonstrate the usage the properties of these indices compared to average pairwise measures, I applied them to a dataset for a permanent 50-ha forest dynamics plot on Barro Colorado Island in Panama. Information regarding "individuals" is generally missing from community ecology and biodiversity studies of temporal dynamics. In this context, the methods proposed here are expected to be useful for addressing a wide range of research questions regarding temporal changes in biodiversity, especially studies using traditional individual-tracked forest monitoring data.

Land cover alteration shifts ecological assembly processes in floodplain lakes: Consequences for fish community dynamics

Habitat degradation is expected to alter community structure and consequently, ecosystem functions including the maintenance of biodiversity. Understanding the underlying abiotic and biotic assembly mechanisms controlling temporal and spatial community structure and patterns is a central issue in biodiversity conservation. In this study, using monthly time series of fish abundance data collected over a three-year period, we compared the temporal community dynamics in natural habitats and poplar plantations in one of the largest river-lake floodplain ecosystems in China, the Dongting Lake. We found a prevailing strong positive species covariance, i.e. species abundance changes in the same way, in all communities that was significantly negatively impacted by higher water nutrient levels. In contrast to species covariance, community stability, which was measured by the average of aggregated abundance divided by temporal standard deviation, was significantly higher in poplar plantations than in natural habitats. The positive species covariance, which was consistent for both wet and dry years and among habitat types, had significantly negative effects on community stability. Furthermore, our results demonstrated that the ecological stochasticity (i.e. community assembly processes generating diversity patterns that are indistinguishable from random chance) was significantly higher in natural sites than in poplar plantations, suggesting that deterministic processes might control the community composition (richness and abundance) at the modified habitat through reducing species synchrony and positive species covariance observed in the natural habitats, leading to significantly lower temporal β-diversity. When combined, our results suggest that habitat modification created environmental conditions for the development of stable fish community in the highly dynamic floodplains, leading to niche-based community with lower temporal β-diversity.

Nitrogen addition amplifies the nonlinear drought response of grassland productivity to extended growing-season droughts

Understanding the response of grassland production and carbon exchange to intra-annual variation in precipitation and nitrogen addition is critical for sustainable grassland management and ecosystem restoration. We introduced growing-season drought treatments of different lengths (15, 30, 45 and 60 d drought) by delaying growing-season precipitation in a long-term nitrogen addition experiment in a low diversity meadow steppe in northeast China. Response variables included aboveground biomass (AGB), ecosystem net carbon exchange (NEE), and leaf net carbon assimilation rate (A). In unfertilized plots drought decreased AGB by 13.7% after a 45-d drought and 31.7% after a 60-d drought (47.6% in fertilized plots). Progressive increases in the drought response of NEE were also observed. The effects of N addition on the drought response of productivity increased as drought duration increased, and these responses were a function of changes in AGB and biomass allocation, particularly root to shoot ratio. However, no significant effects of drought occurred in fertilized or unfertilized plots in the growing season a year after the experiment, N addition did limit the recovery of AGB from severe drought during the remainder of the current growing season. Our results imply that chronic N enrichment could exacerbate the effects of growing-season drought on grassland productivity caused by altered precipitation seasonality under climate change, but that these effects do not carry over to the next growing season.

The spatial synchrony of species richness and its relationship to ecosystem stability

Synchrony is broadly important to population and community dynamics due to its ubiquity and implications for extinction dynamics, system stability, and species diversity. Investigations of synchrony in community ecology have tended to focus on covariance in the abundances of multiple species in a single location. Yet, the importance of regional environmental variation and spatial processes in community dynamics suggests that community properties, such as species richness, could fluctuate synchronously across patches in a metacommunity, in an analog of population spatial synchrony. Here, we test the prevalence of this phenomenon and the conditions under which it may occur using theoretical simulations and empirical data from 20 marine and terrestrial metacommunities. Additionally, given the importance of biodiversity for stability of ecosystem function, we posit that spatial synchrony in species richness is strongly related to stability. Our findings show that metacommunities often exhibit spatial synchrony in species richness. We also found that richness synchrony can be driven by environmental stochasticity and dispersal, two mechanisms of population spatial synchrony. Richness synchrony also depended on community structure, including species evenness and beta diversity. Strikingly, ecosystem stability was more strongly related to richness synchrony than to species richness itself, likely because richness synchrony integrates information about community processes and environmental forcing. Our study highlights a new approach for studying spatiotemporal community dynamics and emphasizes the spatial dimensions of community dynamics and stability.

Climate sensitivity across latitude: scaling physiology to communities

While we know climate change will impact individuals, populations, and communities, we lack a cross-scale synthesis for understanding global variation in climate change impacts and predicting their ecological effects. Studies of latitudinal variation in individuals' thermal responses have developed primarily in isolation from studies of natural populations' warming responses. Further, it is unclear whether latitudinal variation in temperature-dependent population responses will manifest into latitudinal patterns in community stability. Integrating across scales, we discuss the key drivers of latitudinal variation in climate change effects, with the goal of identifying key pieces of information necessary to predict warming effects in natural communities. We propose two experimental approaches synthesizing latitudinal variability in climate change impacts across scales of biological organization.

Functional trait effects on ecosystem stability: assembling the jigsaw puzzle

Under global change, how biological diversity and ecosystem services are maintained in time is a fundamental question. Ecologists have long argued about multiple mechanisms by which local biodiversity might control the temporal stability of ecosystem properties. Accumulating theories and empirical evidence suggest that, together with different population and community parameters, these mechanisms largely operate through differences in functional traits among organisms. We review potential trait-stability mechanisms together with underlying tests and associated metrics. We identify various trait-based components, each accounting for different stability mechanisms, that contribute to buffering, or propagating, the effect of environmental fluctuations on ecosystem functioning. This comprehensive picture, obtained by combining different puzzle pieces of trait-stability effects, will guide future empirical and modeling investigations.

Consistently positive effect of species diversity on ecosystem, but not population, temporal stability

Despite much recent progress, our understanding of diversity-stability relationships across different study systems remains incomplete. In particular, recent theory clarified that within-species population stability and among-species asynchronous population dynamics combine to determine ecosystem temporal stability, but their relative importance in modulating diversity-ecosystem temporal stability relationships in different ecosystems remains unclear. We addressed this issue with a meta-analysis of empirical studies of ecosystem and population temporal stability in relation to species diversity across a range of taxa and ecosystems. We show that ecosystem temporal stability tended to increase with species diversity, regardless of study systems. Increasing diversity promoted asynchrony, which, in turn, contributed to increased ecosystem stability. The positive diversity-ecosystem stability relationship persisted even after accounting for the influences of environmental covariates (e.g., precipitation and nutrient input). By contrast, species diversity tended to reduce population temporal stability in terrestrial systems but increase population temporal stability in aquatic systems, suggesting that asynchronous dynamics among species are essential for stabilizing diverse terrestrial ecosystems. We conclude that there is compelling empirical evidence for a general positive relationship between species diversity and ecosystem-level temporal stability, but the contrasting diversity-population temporal stability relationships between terrestrial and aquatic systems call for more investigations into their underlying mechanisms.

Biotic homogenization destabilizes ecosystem functioning by decreasing spatial asynchrony

Our planet is facing significant changes of biodiversity across spatial scales. Although the negative effects of local biodiversity (α diversity) loss on ecosystem stability are well documented, the consequences of biodiversity changes at larger spatial scales, in particular biotic homogenization, that is, reduced species turnover across space (β diversity), remain poorly known. Using data from 39 grassland biodiversity experiments, we examine the effects of β diversity on the stability of simulated landscapes while controlling for potentially confounding biotic and abiotic factors. Our results show that higher β diversity generates more asynchronous dynamics among local communities and thereby contributes to the stability of ecosystem productivity at larger spatial scales. We further quantify the relative contributions of α and β diversity to ecosystem stability and find a relatively stronger effect of α diversity, possibly due to the limited spatial scale of our experiments. The stabilizing effects of both α and β diversity lead to a positive diversity–stability relationship at the landscape scale. Our findings demonstrate the destabilizing effect of biotic homogenization and suggest that biodiversity should be conserved at multiple spatial scales to maintain the stability of ecosystem functions and services.

Risk of short-term biodiversity loss under more persistent precipitation regimes

Recent findings indicate that atmospheric warming increases the persistence of weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, resulting in sequences of longer dry and wet periods compared to historic averages. The alternation of progressively longer dry and wet extremes could increasingly select for species with a broad environmental tolerance. As a consequence, biodiversity may decline. Here we explore the relationship between the persistence of summer precipitation regimes and plant diversity by subjecting experimental grassland mesocosms to a gradient of dry-wet alternation frequencies whilst keeping the total precipitation constant. The gradient varied the duration of consecutive wet and dry periods, from 1 up to 60 days with or without precipitation, over a total of 120 days. An alternation of longer dry and wet spells led to a severe loss of species richness (up to -75% relative to the current rainfall pattern in W-Europe) and functional diversity (enhanced dominance of grasses relative to nitrogen (N)-fixers and non-N-fixing forbs). Loss of N-fixers and non-N-fixing forbs in severe treatments was linked to lower baseline competitive success and higher physiological sensitivity to changes in soil moisture compared to grasses. The extent of diversity losses also strongly depended on the timing of the dry and wet periods. Regimes in which long droughts (≥20 days) coincided with above-average temperatures showed significantly more physiological plant stress over the experimental period, greater plant mortality, and impoverished communities by the end of the season. Across all regimes, the duration of the longest period below permanent wilting point was an accurate predictor of mortality across the communities, indicating that increasingly persistent precipitation regimes may reduce opportunities for drought stress alleviation. We conclude that without recruitment, which was precluded in this experiment, summer precipitation regimes with longer dry and wet spells will likely diminish plant diversity, at least in the short term.

Two centuries for an almost complete community turnover from native to non-native species in a riverine ecosystem

Non-native species introductions affect freshwater communities by changing community compositions, functional roles, trait occurrences and ecological niche spaces. Reconstructing such changes over long periods is difficult due to limited data availability. We collected information spanning 215 years on fish and selected macroinvertebrate groups (Mollusca and Crustacea) in the inner-Florentine stretch of the Arno River (Italy) and associated water grid, to investigate temporal changes. We identified an almost complete turnover from native to non-native fish (1800: 92% native; 2015: 94% non-native species) and macroinvertebrate species (1800: 100% native; 2015: 70% non-native species). Non-native fish species were observed ~50 years earlier compared to macroinvertebrate species, indicating phased invasion processes. In contrast, α-diversity of both communities increased significantly following a linear pattern. Separate analyses of changes in α-diversities for native and non-native species of both fish and macroinvertebrates were nonlinear. Functional richness and divergence of fish and macroinvertebrate communities decreased non-significantly, as the loss of native species was compensated by non-native species. Introductions of non-native fish and macroinvertebrate species occurred outside the niche space of native species. Native and non-native fish species exhibited greater overlap in niche space over time (62%-68%) and non-native species eventually replaced native species. Native and non-native macroinvertebrate niches overlapped to a lesser extent (15%-30%), with non-natives occupying mostly unoccupied niche space. These temporal changes in niche spaces of both biotic groups are a direct response to the observed changes in α-diversity and species turnover. These changes are potentially driven by deteriorations in hydromorphology as indicated by alterations in trait modalities. Additionally, we identified that angling played a considerable role for fish introductions. Our results support previous findings that the community turnover from native to non-native species can be facilitated by, for example, deteriorating environmental conditions and that variations in communities are multifaceted requiring more indicators than single metrics.

A new approach to interspecific synchrony in population ecology using tail association

Standard methods for studying the association between two ecologically important variables provide only a small slice of the information content of the association, but statistical approaches are available that provide comprehensive information. In particular, available approaches can reveal tail associations, that is, accentuated or reduced associations between the more extreme values of variables. We here study the nature and causes of tail associations between phenological or population-density variables of co-located species, and their ecological importance. We employ a simple method of measuring tail associations which we call the partial Spearman correlation. Using multidecadal, multi-species spatiotemporal datasets on aphid first flights and marine phytoplankton population densities, we assess the potential for tail association to illuminate two major topics of study in community ecology: the stability or instability of aggregate community measures such as total community biomass and its relationship with the synchronous or compensatory dynamics of the community's constituent species; and the potential for fluctuations and trends in species phenology to result in trophic mismatches. We find that positively associated fluctuations in the population densities of co-located species commonly show asymmetric tail associations; that is, it is common for two species' densities to be more correlated when large than when small, or vice versa. Ordinary measures of association such as correlation do not take this asymmetry into account. Likewise, positively associated fluctuations in the phenology of co-located species also commonly show asymmetric tail associations. We provide evidence that tail associations between two or more species' population-density or phenology time series can be inherited from mutual tail associations of these quantities with an environmental driver. We argue that our understanding of community dynamics and stability, and of phenologies of interacting species, can be meaningfully improved in future work by taking into account tail associations.

Temporal variability in production is not consistently affected by global change drivers across herbaceous-dominated ecosystems

Understanding how global change drivers (GCDs) affect aboveground net primary production (ANPP) through time is essential to predicting the reliability and maintenance of ecosystem function and services in the future. While GCDs, such as drought, warming and elevated nutrients, are known to affect mean ANPP, less is known about how they affect inter-annual variability in ANPP. We examined 27 global change experiments located in 11 different herbaceous ecosystems that varied in both abiotic and biotic conditions, to investigate changes in the mean and temporal variability of ANPP (measured as the coefficient of variation) in response to different GCD manipulations, including resource additions, warming, and irrigation. From this comprehensive data synthesis, we found that GCD treatments increased mean ANPP. However, GCD manipulations both increased and decreased temporal variability of ANPP (24% of comparisons), with no net effect overall. These inconsistent effects on temporal variation in ANPP can, in part, be attributed to site characteristics, such as mean annual precipitation and temperature as well as plant community evenness. For example, decreases in temporal variability in ANPP with the GCD treatments occurred in wetter and warmer sites with lower plant community evenness. Further, the addition of several nutrients simultaneously increased the sensitivity of ANPP to interannual variation in precipitation. Based on this analysis, we expect that GCDs will likely affect the magnitude more than the reliability over time of ecosystem production in the future.

Synchrony matters more than species richness in plant community stability at a global scale

The stability of ecological communities is critical for the stable provisioning of ecosystem services, such as food and forage production, carbon sequestration, and soil fertility. Greater biodiversity is expected to enhance stability across years by decreasing synchrony among species, but the drivers of stability in nature remain poorly resolved. Our analysis of time series from 79 datasets across the world showed that stability was associated more strongly with the degree of synchrony among dominant species than with species richness. The relatively weak influence of species richness is consistent with theory predicting that the effect of richness on stability weakens when synchrony is higher than expected under random fluctuations, which was the case in most communities. Land management, nutrient addition, and climate change treatments had relatively weak and varying effects on stability, modifying how species richness, synchrony, and stability interact. Our results demonstrate the prevalence of biotic drivers on ecosystem stability, with the potential for environmental drivers to alter the intricate relationship among richness, synchrony, and stability.