Infection-induced host extinction: Deterministic and stochastic models for environmentally transmitted pathogens

Amphibian decline and extinction have been observed on a global scale, highlighting the urgency of identifying the underlying factors. This issue has long been recognized as a critical concern in conservation ecology and continues to receive significant attention. Pathogen infection, in particular the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is postulated as a key factor contributing to the decline of certain species within specific regions. In this paper, we focus on identifying the pathogen characteristics that can drive host species extinction. Both deterministic and stochastic modeling frameworks based on a susceptible-infectious-pathogen epidemic model are proposed, to assess the influence of pathogen infection on species decline and extinction. Various indices, including the reproduction numbers of the host species, the replication of the pathogen, and the transmission of the pathogen are derived. Theoretical analysis includes the stability of equilibria, the extinction and persistence of host species in the deterministic model, and the evaluation of extinction probability and average extinction time in the stochastic model. Additionally, numerical simulations are conducted to quantify the effects of various factors on host decline and extinction, as well as the probabilities of extinction. We find two crucial conditions for a pathogen to drive host extinction: (i) the pathogen's self-reproduction capacity in the environment, and (ii) the pathogen's impact on the fecundity and survival of the infected host. These findings provide insights that could aid in the design and implementation of effective conservation strategies for amphibians.

Climate mediates the trade-offs associated with phenotypic plasticity in an amphibian polyphenism

Polyphenisms occur when phenotypic plasticity produces morphologically distinct phenotypes from the same genotype. Plasticity is maintained through fitness trade-offs which are conferred to different phenotypes under specific environmental contexts. Predicting the impacts of contemporary climate change on phenotypic plasticity is critical for climate-sensitive animals like amphibians, but elucidating the selective pressures maintaining polyphenisms requires a framework to control for all mechanistic drivers of plasticity. Using a 32-year dataset documenting the larval and adult histories of 717 Arizona tiger salamanders (Ambystoma mavortium nebulosum), we determined how annual variation in climate and density dependence explained the maintenance of two distinct morphs (terrestrial metamorph vs. aquatic paedomorph) in a high-elevation polyphenism. The effects of climate and conspecific density on morph development were evaluated with piecewise structural equation models (SEM) to tease apart the direct and indirect pathways by which these two mechanisms affect phenotypic plasticity. Climate had a direct effect on morph outcome whereby longer growing seasons favoured metamorphic outcomes. Also, climate had indirect effects on morph outcome as mediated through density-dependent effects, such as long overwintering coldspells corresponding to high cannibal densities and light snowpacks corresponding to high larval densities, both of which promoted paedomorphic outcomes. Both climate and density dependence serve as important proxies for growth and resource limitation, which are important underlying drivers of the phenotypic plasticity in animal polyphenisms. Our findings motivate new studies to determine how contemporary climate change will alter the selective pressures maintaining phenotypic plasticity and polyphenisms.

Developmental temperature modulates microplastics impact on amphibian life history without affecting ontogenetic microplastic transfer

This study examines how temperature influences the response of Japanese tree frogs (Dryophytes japonicus) to microplastic (MP) pollution, assessing whether temperature can regulate the harmful effects of MPs on their life history and the dispersal of MPs across habitats. This analysis aims to understand the ecological and physiological ramifications of MP pollution. Our results demonstrated an ontogenetic transfer of MP particles across amphibian metamorphosis, possibly allowing and facilitating the translocation of MPs across ecosystems. Temperature did not significantly affect the translocation of aquatic MPs to land. However, high temperatures significantly reduced mortality and hindlimb deformities caused by MPs, thereby mitigating their harmful impact on amphibian life histories. Importantly, our study found that MPs cause hindlimb deformities during amphibian metamorphosis, potentially linked to oxidative stress. Additionally, MP exposure and ingestion induced a plastic response in the morphology of the digestive tract and changes in the fecal microbiome, which were evident at high temperatures but not at low temperatures. The effects of MPs persisted even after the frogs transitioned to the terrestrial stage, suggesting that MPs may have complex, long-term impacts on amphibian population sustainability. Our results enhance the understanding of the intricate environmental challenges posed by MPs and underscore the significant role of temperature in ectotherms regarding ontogenetic impacts and pollutant interactions.

Effects of changed water regime on the toxicity of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in tadpoles of Fejervarya limnocharis

Climate change is viewed as one of the important causes of the amphibian population decline. Aspects of climate change like increase in water temperature and drying up of habitats have been underrepresented. The expanding production and usage of metal nanoparticles like silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) make them likely to end up in aquatic ecosystems. To arrive at a realistic assessment of the impact of AgNPs in a warming world, we have investigated the effects of temperature on the acute toxicity of AgNPs in tadpoles of Fejervarya limnocharis at 24, 48, 72 and 96 h of exposure. The various aspects of sub-lethal toxicities of AgNPs with increase in temperature were also investigated. Besides, the effects of habitat desiccation on the sub-lethal toxicities of AgNPs in the tadpoles were analysed. The LC50 values of AgNPs at four different time points were found to be significantly different between the two different temperatures. Alterations in survival pattern, life history traits, amplifications in genotoxic potential and oxidative stress were observed with increased water temperature following AgNP exposure. The phenomenon of habitat desiccation was also found to significantly affect the toxicity of AgNPs with respect to alterations in mortality rate, time to metamorphosis and morphometric parameters of metamorphosed tadpoles. The findings suggest that changed water regime such as increased water temperature as well as reduction in water level accelerated the toxic effects of AgNPs in F. limnocharis tadpoles which is likely to affect their natural populations.

Effects of warming at embryonic and larval stages on tadpole fitness in high-altitude Rana kukunoris

Global warming may affect the early developmental stages of high-altitude amphibians, thereby influencing their later fitness. Yet, this has been largely unexplored. To investigate whether and how the temperatures experienced by embryonic and larval stages affect their fitness at later developmental stages, we designed two experiments in which the embryos and larvae were treated with three temperatures (24, 18 and 12 °C), respectively. Then, the life history traits of the tadpoles during the metamorphotic climax in all treatments were evaluated, including growth rate, survival rate, morphology, thermal physiology, swimming performance, standard metabolic rate (SMR), oxidative and antioxidative system, and metabolic enzyme activities. The results revealed that elevated temperature accelerated metamorphosis but decreased body size at metamorphosis. Additionally, warming during the embryonic and larval stages decreased the thermal tolerance range and induced increased oxidative stress. Furthermore, high embryonic temperature significantly decreased the hatching success, but had no significant effect on swimming performance and SMR. Warming during larval periods was harmful to the survival and swimming performance of tadpoles. The effect size analysis revealed that the negative impacts of embryonic temperature on certain physiological traits, such as growth and development, survival and swimming performance, were more pronounced than those of larval temperature. Our results highlight the necessity for particular attention to be paid to the early stages of amphibians, notably the embryonic stages when evaluating the impact of global warming on their survival.

Longer days, larger grays: carryover effects of photoperiod and temperature in gray treefrogs, Hyla versicolor

Environmental conditions like temperature and photoperiod can strongly shape organisms' growth and development. For many ectotherms with complex life cycles, global change will cause their offspring to experience warmer conditions and earlier-season photoperiods, two variables that can induce conflicting responses. We experimentally manipulated photoperiod and temperature during gray treefrog (Hyla versicolor) larval development to examine effects at metamorphosis and during short (10-day) and long (56-day) periods post-metamorphosis. Both early- and late-season photoperiods (April and August) decreased age and size at metamorphosis relative to the average-season (June) photoperiod, while warmer temperatures decreased age but increased size at metamorphosis. Warmer larval temperatures reduced short-term juvenile growth but had no long-term effect. Conversely, photoperiod had no short-term carryover effect, but juveniles from early- and late-season larval photoperiods had lower long-term growth rates than juveniles from the average-season photoperiod. Similar responses to early- and late-season photoperiods may be due to reduced total daylight compared with average-season photoperiods. However, juveniles from late-season photoperiods selected cooler temperatures than early-season juveniles, suggesting that not all effects of photoperiod were due to total light exposure. Our results indicate that despite both temperature and photoperiod affecting metamorphosis, the long-term effects of photoperiod may be much stronger than those of temperature.

Effects of elevated temperature, reduced hydroperiod, and invasive bullfrog larvae on pacific chorus frog larvae

Climate change and invasive species threaten many ecosystems, including surface freshwater systems. Increasing temperatures and reduced hydroperiod due to climate change may promote the persistence of invasive species and facilitate new invasions due to potentially higher tolerance to environmental stress in successful invaders. Amphibians demonstrate high levels of plasticity in life history characteristics, particularly those species which inhabit both ephemeral and permanent water bodies. We tested the influence of two projected effects of climate change (increased temperature and reduced hydroperiod) on Pacific chorus frog (Pseudacris regilla) tadpoles alone and in combination with the presence of tadpoles of a wide-spread invasive amphibian, the American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus). Specifically, we explored the effects of projected climate change and invasion on survival, growth, mass at stage 42, and development rate of Pacific chorus frogs. Direct and indirect interactions between the invasive tadpole and the native tadpole were controlled via a cage treatment and were included to account for differences in presence of the bullfrog compared to competition for food resources and other direct effects. Overall, bullfrogs had larger negative effects on Pacific chorus frogs than climate conditions. Under future climate conditions, Pacific chorus frogs developed faster and emerged heavier. Pacific chorus frog tadpoles developing in the presence of American bullfrogs, regardless of cage treatment, emerged lighter. When future climate conditions and presence of invasive American bullfrog tadpoles were combined, tadpoles grew less. However, no interaction was detected between climate conditions and bullfrog presence for mass, suggesting that tadpoles allocated energy towards mass rather than length under the combined stress treatment. The maintenance of overall body condition (smaller but heavier metamorphs) when future climate conditions overlap with bullfrog presence suggests that Pacific chorus frogs may be partially compensating for the negative effects of bullfrogs via increased allocation of energy towards mass. Strong plasticity, as demonstrated by Pacific chorus frog larvae in our study, may allow species to match the demands of new environments, including under future climate change.

Increased Temperature Influenced Growth and Development of Lithobates pipiens Tadpoles Exposed to Leachates of the Invasive Plant European Buckthorn (Rhamnus cathartica) and a Triclopyr Herbicide

Multiple factors including habitat loss, pollutants, invasive species, and disease have contributed to the global decline of amphibians, and further declines can be expected as a result of climate change. Warming temperatures may allow for range expansion of invasive plants, and because herbicides are the primary method to control invasive plants, chemical use may increase. A laboratory experiment was performed to examine the individual and combined effects of leachates from the invasive plant European buckthorn (Rhamnus cathartica, L.) and a triclopyr herbicide (Renovate® 3; 0.21 mg/L), which is commonly used to manage R. cathartica, on northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens, Schreber) tadpoles at 2 temperature regimes (20 and 25 °C). We measured tadpole growth weekly and body and intestine morphology at the conclusion of the experiment after 8 wk. In the presence of R. cathartica leachates, tadpole growth increased at 25 °C, but only during the first 3 to 4 wk of the experiment. From week 5 until the end of the experiment, tadpoles were significantly smaller at 25 °C compared with 20 °C, but had more developed limb buds at the end of the experiment (except in the triclopyr treatment). Triclopyr had minimal effects on tadpole growth at the low dose used in this study. These results encourage further examination of potential effects of global climate changes in combination with other environmental factors that may impact amphibian populations. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:2547-2558. © 2021 SETAC.

Sublethal, Behavioral, and Developmental Effects of the Neonicotinoid Pesticide Imidacloprid on Larval Wood Frogs (Rana sylvatica)

Imidacloprid, a neonicotinoid pesticide, is used to prevent the spread of the hemlock woolly adelgid, currently affecting Eastern Hemlock trees across North America. When the pesticide is sprayed directly onto soil around infested trees (soil drenching), it can run off into aquatic systems, with potential negative effects on biota. Simultaneously, climate change may lead to faster pool drying, which acts as an additional stressor for sensitive species such as amphibians. We evaluated the sublethal effects of imidacloprid (10 ppb), and interaction with shorter hydroperiods on the larval behavior, growth, and survival of a model organism, the wood frog (Rana sylvatica). We performed 3 behavioral experiments evaluating swimming speed, time spent swimming, and distance the larvae swam. We found that larvae raised in 10 ppb imidacloprid or shorter hydroperiod did not differ in their swimming time, distance, and speed from nonexposed larvae. Naïve larvae exposed for 20 min to 10- to 500-ppb concentrations also showed similar performance to nonexposed larvae. However, when we applied a stimulus halfway through each experiment, we found that larvae exposed to 10 ppb imidacloprid (short and long term) swam shorter distances and spent less time swimming, suggesting that imidacloprid exposure may slow reaction time, potentially increasing the risk of predation. To minimize impacts on pool-breeding amphibians, imidacloprid application to combat the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid should use trunk injection and avoid soil drenching. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:1840-1849. © 2021 SETAC.

Complex hydroperiod induced carryover responses for survival, growth, and endurance of a pond-breeding amphibian

Assessing carryover effects from the aquatic to the terrestrial stage of pond-breeding amphibians is critical as temperature and hydrologic regimes of temporary ponds continue to be altered as a result of climate change and other stressors. We evaluated carryover effects of hydroperiod length (50-62 days) on amphibian survival, developmental rates, and locomotor performance using a model organism, the wood frog (Rana sylvatica), through aquatic and terrestrial mesocosm experiments with individual tests of locomotor performance. We found that shorter hydroperiods (50 days) had low larval survival (0.44 ± 0.03) compared to the 62-day hydroperiod (0.91 ± 0.09) and increased developmental rates, resulting in smaller sizes at metamorphosis. We did not find evidence of carryover effects on terrestrial survival three months post-metamorphosis with all hydroperiod treatments showing high terrestrial survival (0.88 ± 0.07). However, post-metamorphic frogs from the longer hydroperiod treatments grew faster and larger compared to individuals from shortest hydroperiods and performed significantly better during endurance trials at 18 °C. Disentangling complex carryover effects across multiple life stages in species with high phenotypic plasticity can shed light on the physiological capacity of species to respond to changing environments and inform mechanistic predictions of persistence in the face of anthropogenic stressors.

Hydrothermal physiology and climate vulnerability in amphibians

Concerns over the consequences of global climate change for biodiversity have spurred a renewed interest in organismal thermal physiology. However, temperature is only one of many environmental axes poised to change in the future. In particular, hydrologic regimes are also expected to shift concurrently with temperature in many regions, yet our understanding of how thermal and hydration physiology jointly affect performance and fitness is still limited for most taxonomic groups. Here, we investigated the relationship between functional performance, hydration state and temperature in three ecologically distinct amphibians, and compare how temperature and water loss can concurrently limit activity under current climate conditions. We found that performance was maintained across a broad range of hydration states in all three species, but then declines abruptly after a threshold of 20-30% mass loss. This rapid performance decline was accelerated when individuals were exposed to warmer temperatures. Combining our empirical hydrothermal performance curves with species-specific biophysical models, we estimated that dehydration can increase restrictions on species' activity by up to 60% compared to restriction by temperature alone. These results illustrate the importance of integrating species' hydration physiology into forecasts of climate vulnerability, as omitting this axis may significantly underestimate the effects of future climate change on Earth's biological diversity.

Habitat patches for newts in the face of climate change: local scale assessment combining niche modelling and graph theory

Triturus cristatus and Triturus marmoratus are two protected and declining newts occurring in the administrative department of Vienne, in France. They have limited dispersal abilities and rely on the connectivity between habitats and their suitability. In a warming climate, the locations of suitable habitats are expected to change, as is the connectivity. Here, we wondered how climate change might affect shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity of habitat patches, as connectivity is a key element enabling species to realize a potential range shift. We used ecological niche modelling (ENM), combining large-scale climate suitability with local scale, high-resolution habitat features, to identify suitable areas for the two species, under low and high warming scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). We associated it with connectivity assessment through graph theory. The variable 'small ponds' contributed most to land cover-only ENMs for both species. Projections with climate change scenarios revealed a potential impact of warming on suitable habitat patches for newts, especially for T. cristatus. We observed a decrease in connectivity following a decrease in patch suitability. Our results highlight the important areas for newt habitat connectivity within the study area, and define those potentially threatened by climate warming. We provide information for prioritizing sites for acquisition, protection or restoration, and to advise landscape policies. Our framework is a useful and easily reproducible way to combine global climate requirements of the species with detailed information on species habitats and occurrence when available.

Contaminant and Environmental Influences on Thyroid Hormone Action in Amphibian Metamorphosis

Aquatic and terrestrial environments are increasingly contaminated by anthropogenic sources that include pharmaceuticals, personal care products, and industrial and agricultural chemicals (i. e., pesticides). Many of these substances have the potential to disrupt endocrine function, yet their effect on thyroid hormone (TH) action has garnered relatively little attention. Anuran postembryonic metamorphosis is strictly dependent on TH and perturbation of this process can serve as a sensitive barometer for the detection and mechanistic elucidation of TH disrupting activities of chemical contaminants and their complex mixtures. The ecological threats posed by these contaminants are further exacerbated by changing environmental conditions such as temperature, photoperiod, pond drying, food restriction, and ultraviolet radiation. We review the current knowledge of several chemical and environmental factors that disrupt TH-dependent metamorphosis in amphibian tadpoles as assessed by morphological, thyroid histology, behavioral, and molecular endpoints. Although the molecular mechanisms for TH disruption have yet to be determined for many chemical and environmental factors, several affect TH synthesis, transport or metabolism with subsequent downstream effects. As molecular dysfunction typically precedes phenotypic or histological pathologies, sensitive assays that detect changes in transcript, protein, or metabolite abundance are indispensable for the timely detection of TH disruption. The emergence and application of 'omics techniques-genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, and epigenomics-on metamorphosing tadpoles are powerful emerging assets for the rapid, proxy assessment of toxicant or environmental damage for all vertebrates including humans. Moreover, these highly informative 'omics techniques will complement morphological, behavioral, and histological assessments, thereby providing a comprehensive understanding of how TH-dependent signal disruption is propagated by environmental contaminants and factors.

Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian

Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life-history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow-dominated to rain-dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post-metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species' life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage-based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed-specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λ_s ) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84-1.13), but predict that λ_s will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.

Simulated climate change increases larval mortality, alters phenology, and affects flight morphology of a dragonfly

For organisms with complex life cycles, climate change can have both direct effects and indirect effects that are mediated through plastic responses to temperature and that carry over beyond the developmental environment. We examined multiple responses to environmental warming in a dragonfly, a species whose life history bridges aquatic and terrestrial environments. We tested larval survival under warming and whether warmer conditions can create carry-over effects between life history stages. Rearing dragonfly larvae in an experimental warming array to simulate increases in temperature, we contrasted the effects of the current thermal environment with temperatures +2.5°C and +5°C above ambient, temperatures predicted for 50 and 100 years in the future for the study region. Aquatic mesocosms were stocked with dragonfly larvae (Erythemis collocata) and we followed survival of larvae to adult emergence. We also measured the effects of warming on the timing of the life history transition to the adult stage, body size of adults, and the relative size of their wings, an aspect of morphology key to flight performance. There was a trend toward reduced larval survival with increasing temperature. Warming strongly affected the phenology of adult emergence, advancing emergence by up to a month compared with ambient conditions. Additionally, our warmest conditions increased variation in the timing of adult emergence compared with cooler conditions. The increased variation with warming arose from an extended emergence season with fewer individuals emerging at any one time. Altered emergence patterns such as we observed are likely to place individuals emerging outside the typical season at greater risk from early and late season storms and will reduce effective population sizes during the breeding season. Contrary to expectations for ectotherms, body size was unaffected by warming. However, morphology was affected: at +5°C, dragonflies emerging from mesocosms had relatively smaller wings. This provides some of the first evidence that the effects of climate change on animals during their growth can have carry-over effects in morphology that will affect performance of later life history stages. In dragonflies, relatively smaller wings are associated with reduced flight performance, creating a link between larval thermal conditions and adult dispersal capacity.

How sensitive are temperate tadpoles to climate change? The use of thermal physiology and niche model tools to assess vulnerability

Ectotherms are vulnerable to climate change, given their dependence on temperature, and amphibians are particularly interesting because of their complex life cycle. Tadpoles may regulate their body temperature by using suitable thermal microhabitats. Thus, their physiological responses are the result of adjustment to the local thermal limits experienced in their ponds. We studied three anuran tadpole species present in Argentina and Chile: Pleurodema thaul and Pleurodema bufoninum that are seasonal and have broad geographic ranges, and Batrachyla taeniata, a geographically restricted species with overwintering tadpoles. Species with restricted distribution are more susceptible to climate change than species with broader distribution that may cope with potential climatic changes in the environments in which they occur. We aim to test whether these species can buffer the potential effects of climate warming. We used ecological niche models and the outcomes of their thermal attributes (critical thermal limits, optimal temperature, and locomotor performance breadth) as empirical evidence of their capacity. We found that Pleurodema species show broader performance curves, related to their occurrence, while the geographically restricted B. taeniata shows a narrower thermal breadth, but is faster in warmer conditions. The modeled distributions and empirical physiological results suggest no severe threats for these three anurans. However, the risk level is increasing and a retraction of their distribution range might be possible for Pleurodema species, and some local population extinctions may happen, particularly for the narrowly distributed B. taeniata.

Uncovering emergent interactions in three-way combinations of stressors

Understanding how multiple stressors interact is needed to predict the dynamical outcomes of diverse biological systems, ranging from drug-resistant pathogens that are combated and treated with combination drug therapies to ecosystems impacted by environmental toxicants or disturbances. Nevertheless, extensive studies of higher-order (more than two component) interactions have been lacking. Here, we conduct experiments using 20 three-drug combinations and their effects on the bacterial growth of Escherichia coli We report our measurements of growth rates in single, pairwise and triple-drug combinations. To uncover emergent interactions, we derive a simple framework to calculate expectations for three-way interactions based on the measured impact of each individual stressor and of each pairwise interaction. Using our framework, we find that (i) emergent antagonisms are more common than emergent synergies and (ii) emergent antagonisms are more common and emergent synergies are more rare than would be inferred from measures of net effects that do not disentangle pairwise interactions from three-way interactions.

Additive impacts of experimental climate change increase risk to an ectotherm at the Arctic's edge

Globally, Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced the greatest temperature increases during the last 30 years. These extreme changes have amplified threats to the freshwater ecosystems that dominate the landscape in many areas by altering water budgets. Several studies in temperate environments have examined the adaptive capacity of organisms to enhance our understanding of the potential repercussions of warming and associated accelerated drying for freshwater ecosystems. However, few experiments have examined these impacts in Arctic or Subarctic freshwater ecosystems, where the climate is changing most rapidly. To evaluate the capacity of a widespread ectotherm to anticipated environmental changes, we conducted a mesocosm experiment with wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) in the Canadian Subarctic. Three warming treatments were fully crossed with three drying treatments to simulate a range of predicted changes in wetland environments. We predicted wetland warming and drying would act synergistically, with water temperature partially compensating for some of the negative effects of accelerated drying. Across all drying regimes, a 1 °C increase in water temperature increased the odds of survival by 1.79, and tadpoles in 52-day and 64-day hydroperiod mesocosms were 4.1-4.3 times more likely to survive to metamorphosis than tadpoles in 45-day mesocosms. For individuals who survived to metamorphosis, there was only a weak negative effect of temperature on size. As expected, increased temperatures accelerated tadpole growth through day 30 of the experiment. Our results reveal that one of the dominant herbivores in Subarctic wetlands, wood frog tadpoles, are capable of increasing their developmental rates in response to increased temperature and accelerated drying, but only in an additive manner. The strong negative effects of drying on survival, combined with lack of compensation between these two environmental drivers, suggest changes in the aquatic environment that are expected in this ecosystem will reduce mean fitness of populations across the landscape.

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.

Responses to nitrate pollution, warming and density in common frog tadpoles (Rana temporaria)

Amphibians face a variety of anthropogenic environmental perturbations that could act alone or in combination to influence population size. We investigated interactive effects of warming conditions, a moderate pulse of nitrogen pollution, and conspecific density on larvae of the common frog, Rana temporaria. The 16-day experiment had a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial design implemented in 80-l outdoor mesocosms. High density and warm temperature both resulted in reduced activity and visibility; tadpoles grew and developed more quickly at low density and high temperature. The high-nitrogen treatment did not influence behavior, growth, or development rate. We attribute this to several realistic features of our study, including a pulsed treatment application and natural denitrification within the mesocosms. There was only a single interaction among the three factors: higher temperature exacerbated density-dependence in growth rate. These results illustrate that climate warming may benefit temperate amphibians, although the benefits may be counteracted by enhanced larval crowding.

Allocation trade-off under climate warming in experimental amphibian populations

Climate change could either directly or indirectly cause population declines via altered temperature, rainfall regimes, food availability or phenological responses. However few studies have focused on allocation trade-offs between growth and reproduction under marginal resources, such as food scarce that may be caused by climate warming. Such critical changes may have an unpredicted impact on amphibian life-history parameters and even population dynamics. Here, we report an allocation strategy of adult anuran individuals involving a reproductive stage under experimental warming. Using outdoor mesocosm experiments we simulated a warming scenario likely to occur at the end of this century. We examined the effects of temperature (ambient vs. pre-/post-hibernation warming) and food availability (normal vs. low) on reproduction and growth parameters of pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus). We found that temperature was the major factor influencing reproductive time of female pond frogs, which showed a significant advancing under post-hibernation warming treatment. While feeding rate was the major factor influencing reproductive status of females, clutch size, and variation of body size for females, showed significant positive correlations between feeding rate and reproductive status, clutch size, or variation of body size. Our results suggested that reproduction and body size of amphibians might be modulated by climate warming or food availability variation. We believe this study provides some new evidence on allocation strategies suggesting that amphibians could adjust their reproductive output to cope with climate warming.

Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce wetland habitat availability for many species.

Temperature-induced shifts in hibernation behavior in experimental amphibian populations

Phenological shifts are primary responses of species to recent climate change. Such changes might lead to temporal mismatches in food webs and exacerbate species vulnerability. Yet insights into this phenomenon through experimental approaches are still scarce, especially in amphibians, which are particularly sensitive to changing thermal environments. Here, under controlled warming conditions, we report a critical, but poorly studied, life-cycle stage (i.e., hibernation) in frogs inhabiting subtropical latitudes. Using outdoor mesocosm experiments, we examined the effects of temperature (ambient vs. + ~2.2/2.4 °C of pre-/post-hibernation warming) and food availability (normal vs. 1/3 food) on the date of entrance into/emergence from hibernation in Pelophylax nigromaculatus. We found temperature was the major factor determining the hibernation period, which showed a significant shortening under experimental warming (6–8 days), with delays in autumn and advances in spring. Moreover, the timing of hibernation was not affected by food availability, whereas sex and, particularly, age were key factors in the species’ phenological responses. Specifically, male individuals emerged from hibernation earlier, while older individuals also entered and emerged from hibernation earlier. We believe that this study provides some of the first experimental evidence for the effect of climate warming on the timing of amphibian hibernation.

Effects of experimental warming on survival, phenology and morphology of an aquatic insect (Odonata)

1. Organisms can respond to changing climatic conditions in multiple ways including changes in phenology, body size or morphology, and range shifts. Understanding how developmental temperatures affect insect life-history timing and morphology is crucial because body size and morphology affect multiple aspects of life history, including dispersal ability, while phenology can shape population performance and community interactions. 2. We experimentally assessed how developmental temperatures experienced by aquatic larvae affected survival, phenology, and adult morphology of dragonflies (Pachydiplax longipennis). Larvae were reared under 3 environmental temperatures: ambient, +2.5 °C, and +5 °C, corresponding to temperature projections for our study area 50 and 100 years in the future, respectively. Experimental temperature treatments tracked naturally-occurring variation. 3. We found clear effects of temperature in the rearing environment on survival and phenology: dragonflies reared at the highest temperatures had the lowest survival rates, and emerged from the larval stage approximately 3 weeks earlier than animals reared at ambient temperatures. There was no effect of rearing temperature on overall body size. Although neither the relative wing nor thorax size was affected by warming, a non-significant trend towards an interaction between sex and warming in relative thorax size suggests that males may be more sensitive to warming than females, a pattern that should be investigated further. 4. Warming strongly affected survival in the larval stage and the phenology of adult emergence. Understanding how warming in the developmental environment affects later life-history stages is critical to interpreting the consequences of warming for organismal performance.

Warmer winters reduce frog fecundity and shift breeding phenology, which consequently alters larval development and metamorphic timing

One widely documented phenological response to climate change is the earlier occurrence of spring-breeding events. While such climate change-driven shifts in phenology are common, their consequences for individuals and populations have rarely been investigated. I addressed this gap in our knowledge by using a multi-year observational study of six wood frog (Rana sylvatica) populations near the southern edge of their range. I tested first if winter temperature or precipitation affected the date of breeding and female fecundity, and second if timing of breeding affected subsequent larval development rate, mass at metamorphosis, date of metamorphosis, and survival. Warmer winters were associated with earlier breeding but reduced female fecundity. Winter precipitation did not affect breeding date, but was positively associated with female fecundity. There was no association between earlier breeding and larval survival or mass at metamorphosis, but earlier breeding was associated with delayed larval development. The delay in larval development was explained through a counterintuitive correlation between breeding date and temperature during larval development. Warmer winters led to earlier breeding, which in turn was associated with cooler post-breeding temperatures that slowed larval development. The delay in larval development did not fully compensate for the earlier breeding, such that for every 2 days earlier that breeding took place, the average date of metamorphosis was 1 day earlier. Other studies have found that earlier metamorphosis is associated with increased postmetamorphic growth and survival, suggesting that earlier breeding has beneficial effects on wood frog populations.

Effects of Cutrine-Plus® algaecide and predators on wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) tadpole survival and growth

Copper contamination is increasing in many aquatic ecosystems. One mode by which copper can be introduced into aquatic ecosystems is as an algaecide, such as Cutrine-Plus®. Using a mesocosm experiment, we examined the effects of Cutrine-Plus® on wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus) tadpoles. In addition, we examined how the presence of a nonnative predator the Western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) may interact with exposure to Cutrine-Plus®. Exposure to our low and high Cutrine-Plus® treatments had a strong negative effect on the wood frog tadpoles, and survivorship was greatly decreased in the low treatment, and no tadpoles survived in the high treatment. Additionally, the tadpoles that survived the low treatment were significantly smaller than those in the control treatment. Mosquitofish had no effect on the survivorship or growth of wood frog tadpoles, and mosquitofish presence did not have a significant interaction with the Cutrine-Plus® treatments. Cutrine-Plus® clearly had a negative effect on wood frog tadpoles at the concentrations used in our experiment, which were at and below the label-recommended dosages, suggesting that the use of Cutrine-Plus® in natural ponds may have negative consequences for wood frog populations and possibly other amphibians.