Designing cost-efficient surveillance for early detection and control of multiple biological invaders

On Collaborative Governance: Building Consensus on Priorities to Manage Invasive Species Through Collective Action

Invasive forest pests can spread across large landscapes that include numerous land-use management jurisdictions. As such, forest pest invasions need to be addressed with collaborative efforts because a single entity is seldom able to respond to the full scope of the problem. A collaborative governance framework provides a collective decision-making process that allows diverse sets of actors who share an interest in a policy or management issue to work together towards mutually beneficial outcomes. Here, I apply a theoretical model of collaborative governance to understand the conditions in cooperative decision-making that led to a consensus on statewide priorities to control an important invasive pest in California, the Fusarium dieback invasive shothole borers (FD-ISHB) beetle-pathogen invasion. This provides (1) an empirical case study of collaborative governance in action throughout the stakeholder consensus building process and (2) interrogates that case study for theoretical contributions to the literature on collaborative governance, with special focus on invasive species management. Cohesive process outcomes were born out of effective principled engagement, participants' deep understanding and dedication to the system context, and the salient forces of leadership and interdependence baked in throughout the project. Ultimately, participants devoted their time and energy to a short but intensive planning process, resulting in more capacity for joint action, trust, interdependence, and a robust action plan that was quickly implemented.

Catching invasives with curiosity: the importance of passive biosecurity surveillance systems for invasive forest pest detection

First detections of nonnative insect species are often made by curious members of the public rather than by specialists or trained professionals. Passive surveillance is a crucial component of national biosecurity surveillance, highlighted by early detection case studies of several prominent nonnative arthropod pests (e.g., Asian longhorned beetle [ALB], Jorō spider, spotted lanternfly). These examples demonstrate that curiosity and the recognition of novelty in the natural world, along with enabling technology and systems, are a critical part of early detection and effective invasive species management. This is particularly impactful when dealing with conspicuous pests or for new and emerging nonnative species that have yet to be detected in a new location. Data from historical and recent accounts of first detections of ALB incursions and other invasive forest pests underscore the need to invest in passive surveillance reporting systems and fully integrate public observations into existing surveillance frameworks. New automated approaches streamline the assessment of public observations and can generate pest alerts to initiate a formal regulatory assessment. Biodiversity monitoring platforms, such as iNaturalist, provide a focal point for community engagement and aggregate verified public observations. Empowering proactive reporting of biological novelty provides needed support for early detection of invasive species. Embracing the public as active members of the surveillance community can be cost effective and lead to the greatest gains in the proactive management of invasive species around the world.

Addition of Selected Plant-Derived Semiochemicals to Yellow Sticky Traps Does Not Improve Citrus Psyllid Captures

Fast and effective monitoring and surveillance techniques are crucial for the swift implementation of control methods to prevent the spread of Huanglongbing, a devastating citrus disease, and its invasive psyllid vector, Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, into South Africa, as well as to control the native vector, African citrus triozid, Trioza erytreae. Monitoring for citrus psyllid pests can be improved by using semiochemical odorants to augment already visually attractive yellow sticky traps. However, environmental variables such as temperature and humidity could influence odorant release rates. Five field cages were used to test the ability of a selection of odorants to improve yellow sticky trap efficacy in capturing citrus psyllids. Environmental effects on odorant loss from the dispensers were also investigated. The odorants that most improved yellow sticky trap captures in field cages were then tested under open field conditions alongside lower concentrations of those same lures. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry was used to calculate odorant release rates as well as to determine if any contamination occurred under field conditions. None of the odorants under field cage or field conditions significantly improved psyllid capture on yellow sticky traps. Temperature influenced odorant loss, and release rate from polyethylene bulbs decreased over time. Based on these results, the use of unbaited yellow sticky traps seems to be the most effective method for monitoring of Huanglongbing vectors.

Nonnative pest establishment: Spatial patterns and public detection

Early detection of new pests can reduce their long-term impacts by enabling more rapid management response. Knowledge of pest establishment risk and background rates of detection (e.g., by the public) can help inform more cost-effective targeting of formal early detection survey programs. Here we quantify county-level locational attributes associated with pest establishment and detection by the public using data for 113 new pest incursions detected in the United States from 2010 through 2018. Aligning with expectations, we find a higher likelihood of new pest establishment in counties with higher human population numbers, nearer to ports (<250 km), and with amenable climate characteristics. Controlling for potential sample selection issues, we find that pests are less likely to be first detected by the public (e.g., homeowners, community members) versus by other sources (e.g., agency surveys, researchers, or agricultural operators) in counties with higher total crop sales values and lower human population number. The negative association between public detection and high agricultural values may reflect greater survey efforts by other sources (e.g., by agency surveillance programs, researchers, and agricultural operators) in high-value agricultural areas. The positive association between public detection and human population size may reflect larger numbers of public detectors (i.e., people) available to encounter the pests. Our models provide spatially explicit estimates of the likelihood of new pest establishment across U.S. counties and of the likelihood that an established pest would first be detected by the public. These estimates can serve as quantitative inputs to decision-support activities for new pest surveillance planning.

Optimal allocation of resources among general and species-specific tools for plant pest biosecurity surveillance

This paper proposes a surveillance model for plant pests that can optimally allocate resources among survey tools with varying properties. While some survey tools are highly specific for the detection of a single pest species, others are more generalized. There is considerable variation in the cost and sensitivity of these tools, but there are no guidelines or frameworks for identifying which tools are most cost-effective when used in surveillance programs that target the detection of newly invaded populations. To address this gap, we applied our model to design a trapping surveillance program in New Zealand for bark- and wood-boring insects, some of the most serious forest pests worldwide. Our findings show that exclusively utilizing generalized traps (GTs) proves to be highly cost-effective across a wide range of scenarios, particularly when they are capable of capturing all pest species. Implementing surveillance programs that only employ specialized traps (ST) is cost-effective only when these traps can detect highly damaging pests. However, even in such cases, they significantly lag in cost-effectiveness compared to GT-only programs due to their restricted coverage. When both GTs and STs are used in an integrated surveillance program, the total expected cost (TEC) generally diminishes when compared to programs relying on a single type of trap. However, this relative reduction in TEC is only marginally larger than that achieved with GT-only programs, as long as highly damaging species can be detected by GTs. The proportion of STs among the optimal required traps fluctuates based on several factors, including the relative pricing of GTs and STs, pest arrival rates, potential damage, and, more prominently, the coverage capacity of GTs. Our analysis suggests that deploying GTs extensively across landscapes appears to be more cost-effective in areas with either very high or very low levels of relative risk density, potential damage, and arrival rate. Finally, STs are less likely to be required when the pests that are detected by those tools have a higher likelihood of successful eradication because delaying detection becomes less costly for these species.

Monitoring urban biological invasions using citizen science: the polyphagous shot hole borer (Euwallacea fornicatus)

Benefits provided by urban trees are increasingly threatened by non-native pests and pathogens. Monitoring of these invasions is critical for the effective management and conservation of urban tree populations. However, a shortage of professionally collected species occurrence data is a major impediment to assessments of biological invasions in urban areas. We applied data from iNaturalist to develop a protocol for monitoring urban biological invasions using the polyphagous shot hole borer (PSHB) invasion in two urban areas of South Africa. iNaturalist records for all known PSHB reproductive host species were used together with data on localities of sites for processing plant biomass to map priority monitoring areas for detecting new and expanding PSHB infestations. Priority monitoring areas were also identified using the distribution of Acer negundo, a highly susceptible host that serves as a sentinel species for the detection of PSHB infestations. iNaturalist data provided close to 9000 observations for hosts in which PSHB is known to reproduce in our study area (349 of which were A. negundo). High-priority areas for PSHB monitoring include those with the highest density of PSHB reproductive hosts found close to the 140 plant biomass sites identified. We also identified high-priority roads for visual and baited trap surveys, providing operational guidance for practitioners. The monitoring protocol developed in this study highlights the value of citizen or community science data in informing the management of urban biological invasions. It also advocates for the use of platforms such as iNaturalist as essential tools for conservation monitoring in urban landscapes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10340-024-01744-7.

Transect-based trapping for area-wide delimitation of insects

Typical delimitation trapping survey designs for area-wide (nonlocalized) insect populations are regularly spaced grids, and alternative shapes have not been evaluated. We hypothesized that transect-based designs could give similar detection rates with significantly shorter servicing distances. We used the TrapGrid model to investigate novel "trap-sect" designs incorporating crossed, spoked, and parallel lines of traps, comparing them to a regular grid, in single survey and multiple-site scenarios. We calculated minimum servicing distances and simulated mean probabilities of detecting a pest population, judging overall performance of trap network designs using both metrics. For single sites, trap-sect designs reduced service distances by 65-89%, and most had similar detection probabilities as the regular grid. Kernel-smoothed intensity plots indicated that the best performing trap-sect designs distributed traps more fully across the area. With multiple sites (3 side by side), results depended on insect dispersal ability. All designs performed similarly in terms of detection for highly mobile insects, suggesting that designs minimizing service distances would be best for such pests. For less mobile pests the best trap-sect designs had 4-6 parallel lines, or 8 spokes, which reduced servicing distances by 33-50%. Comparisons of hypothetical trap-sect arrays to real program trap locations for 2 pests demonstrated that the novel designs reduced both trap numbers and service distances, with little differences in mean nearest trap distance to random pest locations. Trap-sect designs in delimitation surveys could reduce costs and increase program flexibility without harming the ability to detect populations.

Can morphological traits explain species-specific differences in meta-analyses? A case study of forest beetles

Meta-analyses have become a valuable tool with which to synthesize effects across studies, but in ecology and evolution, they are often characterized by high heterogeneity, where effect sizes vary between studies. Much of this heterogeneity can be attributed to species-specific differences in responses to predictor variables. Here, we aimed to incorporate a novel trait-based approach to explain species-specific differences in a meta-analysis by testing the ability of morphological traits to explain why the effectiveness of flight-intercept trap design varies according to beetle species, a critical issue in forest pest management. An existing morphological trait database for forest beetles was supplemented, providing trait data for 97 species, while data from a previous meta-analysis on capture rates of bark or woodboring beetles according to different trap designs were updated. We combined these sources by including nine morphological traits as moderators in meta-analysis models, for five different components of trap design. Traits were selected based on theoretical hypotheses relating to beetle movement, maneuverability, and sensory perception. We compared the performance of morphological traits as moderators versus guild, taxonomic family, and null meta-analysis models. Morphological traits for the effect of trap type (panel vs. multiple-funnel) on beetle capture rates improved model fit (AIC_c ), reduced within-study variance (σ² ), and explained more variation (McFadden's pseudo-R² ) compared with null, guild, and taxonomic family models. For example, morphological trait models explained 10% more of the variance (pseudo-R² ) when compared with a null model. However, using traits was less informative to explain how detailed elements of trap design such as surface treatment and color influence capture rates. The reduction of within-study variance when accounting for morphological traits demonstrates their potential value for explaining species-specific differences. Morphological traits associated with flight efficiency, maneuverability, and eye size were particularly informative for explaining the effectiveness of trap type. This could lead to improved predictability of optimal trap design according to species. Therefore, morphological traits could be a valuable tool for understanding species-specific differences in community ecology, but other causes of heterogeneity across studies, such as forest type and structure, require further investigation.

Forest Insect Biosecurity: Processes, Patterns, Predictions, Pitfalls

The economic and environmental threats posed by non-native forest insects are ever increasing with the continuing globalization of trade and travel; thus, the need for mitigation through effective biosecurity is greater than ever. However, despite decades of research and implementation of preborder, border, and postborder preventative measures, insect invasions continue to occur, with no evidence of saturation, and are even predicted to accelerate. In this article, we review biosecurity measures used to mitigate the arrival, establishment, spread, and impacts of non-native forest insects and possible impediments to the successful implementation of these measures. Biosecurity successes are likely under-recognized because they are difficult to detect and quantify, whereas failures are more evident in the continued establishment of additional non-native species. There are limitations in existing biosecurity systems at global and country scales (for example, inspecting all imports is impossible, no phytosanitary measures are perfect, knownunknowns cannot be regulated against, and noncompliance is an ongoing problem). Biosecurity should be a shared responsibility across countries, governments, stakeholders, and individuals.

Estimating probability of visual detection of exotic pests and diseases in the grains industry—An expert elicitation approach

Participants in the grains industry undertake general surveillance monitoring of grain crops for early detection of pests and diseases. Evaluating the adequacy of monitoring to ensure successful early detection relies on understanding the probability of detection of the relevant exotic crop pests and diseases. Empirical data on probability of detection is often not available. Our aim was to both gain a better understanding of how agronomists undertake visual crop surveillance, and use this insight to help inform structured expert judgments about the probability of early detection of various exotic grain pests and diseases. In our study we surveyed agronomists under a state funded program to identify survey methods used to undertake visual inspection of grain crops, and their confidence in detecting pests and diseases using the associated methods. We then elicited expert judgments on the probabilities of visual detection by agronomists of key exotic pests and diseases, and compared these estimates with the self-assessments of confidence made by agronomists. Results showed that agronomists used a systematic approach to visual crop inspection but that they were not confident in detecting exotic pests and diseases, with the exception of pest and diseases that affect leaves. They were most confident in visually detecting Barley stripe rust and Russian wheat aphid; however, confidence in detecting the latter was influenced by recent training. Expert judgments on the ability of agronomists to visually detect exotic pests and diseases early was in accordance with agronomists’ self-rated confidence of detection but highlighted uncertainty around the ability of agronomists in detecting non-leaf pests and diseases. The outcomes of the study demonstrated the utility of structured expert elicitation as a cost-effective tool for reducing knowledge gaps around the sensitivity of general surveillance for early detection, which in turn improves area freedom estimates.

Whole community invasions and the integration of novel ecosystems

The impact of invasion by a single non-native species on the function and structure of ecological communities can be significant, and the effects can become more drastic–and harder to predict–when multiple species invade as a group. Here we modify a dynamic Boolean model of plant-pollinator community assembly to consider the invasion of native communities by multiple invasive species that are selected either randomly or such that the invaders constitute a stable community. We show that, compared to random invasion, whole community invasion leads to final stable communities (where the initial process of species turnover has given way to a static or near-static set of species in the community) including both native and non-native species that are larger, more likely to retain native species, and which experience smaller changes to the topological measures of nestedness and connectance. We consider the relationship between the prevalence of mutualistic interactions among native and invasive species in the final stable communities and demonstrate that mutualistic interactions may act as a buffer against significant disruptions to the native community.

Simulation-Based Investigation of the Performance of Delimiting Trapping Surveys for Insect Pests

Fully trapped survey designs are widely used to delimit adventive pests populations that can be detected using traps and lures. Delimitation includes verifying the presence of the pest and determining its spatial extent. The size and shape of the survey design and the density of traps can vary; however, resulting variation in detecting efficiency is often unknown. We used a trapping network simulation model with diffusion-based insect movement to investigate delimiting survey trapping design performance for fully trapped and some modified designs. Simulations included randomized outbreak locations in a core area and a duration of 30 d. We assessed impacts of insect dispersal ability, grid size and shape, and trap attractiveness and density on survey performance, measured as mean probability of capturing individual pests [p(capture)]. Most published grids are square, but circles performed equally well and are more efficient. Over different grid sizes, p(capture) increased for insects with greater dispersal ability but was generally unresponsive to size because most captures occurred in central areas. For low dispersing insects, the likelihood of egress was approximately zero with a 3.2-km square grid, whereas an 11.3-km grid was needed to contain highly vagile insects. Trap attractiveness affected p(capture) more strongly than density: lower densities of poorly attractive traps may underperform expectations. Variable density designs demonstrated potential for cost savings but highlighted that resource-intensive outer bands are critical to boundary determination. Results suggesting that many grids are oversized need empirical verification, whereas other principles, such as using circular shapes, are readily adoptable now.

Optimal surveillance against bioinvasions: a sample average approximation method applied to an agent-based spread model

Trade-offs exist between the point of early detection and the future cost of controlling any invasive species. Finding optimal levels of early detection, with post-border active surveillance, where time, space and randomness are explicitly considered, is computationally challenging. We use a stochastic programming model to find the optimal level of surveillance and predict damages, easing the computational challenge by combining a sample average approximation (SAA) approach and parallel processing techniques. The model is applied to the case of Asian Papaya Fruit Fly (PFF), a highly destructive pest, in Queensland, Australia. To capture the non-linearity in PFF spread, we use an agent-based model (ABM), which is calibrated to a highly detailed land-use raster map (50 m × 50 m) and weather-related data, validated against a historical outbreak. The combination of SAA and ABM sets our work apart from the existing literature. Indeed, despite its increasing popularity as a powerful analytical tool, given its granularity and capability to model the system of interest adequately, the complexity of ABM limits its application in optimizing frameworks due to considerable uncertainty about solution quality. In this light, the use of SAA ensures quality in the optimal solution (with a measured optimality gap) while still being able to handle large-scale decision-making problems. With this combination, our application suggests that the optimal (economic) trap grid size for PFF in Queensland is ˜0.7 km, much smaller than the currently implemented level of 5 km. Although the current policy implies a much lower surveillance cost per year, compared with the $2.08 million under our optimal policy, the expected total cost of an outbreak is $23.92 million, much higher than the optimal policy of roughly $7.74 million.

Approaches for estimating benefits and costs of interventions in plant biosecurity across invasion phases

Nonnative plant pests cause billions of dollars in damages. It is critical to prevent or reduce these losses by intervening at various stages of the invasion process, including pathway risk management (to prevent pest arrival), surveillance and eradication (to counter establishment), and management of established pests (to limit damages). Quantifying benefits and costs of these interventions is important to justify and prioritize investments and to inform biosecurity policy. However, approaches for these estimations differ in (1) the assumed relationship between supply, demand, and prices, and (2) the ability to assess different types of direct and indirect costs at invasion stages, for a given arrival or establishment probability. Here we review economic approaches available to estimate benefits and costs of biosecurity interventions to inform the appropriate selection of approaches. In doing so, we complement previous studies and reviews on estimates of damages from invasive species by considering the influence of economic and methodological assumptions. Cost accounting is suitable for rapid decisions, specific impacts, and simple methodological assumptions but fails to account for feedbacks, such as market adjustments, and may overestimate long-term economic impacts. Partial equilibrium models consider changes in consumer and producer surplus due to pest impacts or interventions and can account for feedbacks in affected sectors but require specialized economic models, comprehensive data sets, and estimates of commodity supply and demand curves. More intensive computable general equilibrium models can account for feedbacks across entire economies, including capital and labor, and linkages among these. The two major considerations in choosing an approach are (1) the goals of the analysis (e.g., consideration of a single pest or intervention with a limited range of impacts vs. multiple interventions, pests or sectors), and (2) the resources available for analysis such as knowledge, budget and time.

Response of native and exotic longhorn beetles to common pheromone components provides partial support for the pheromone-free space hypothesis

Longhorn beetles are among the most important groups of invasive forest insects worldwide. In parallel, they represent one of the most well-studied insect groups in terms of chemical ecology. Longhorn beetle aggregation-sex pheromones are commonly used as trap lures for specific and generic surveillance programs at points of entry and may play a key role in determining the success or failure of exotic species establishment. An exotic species might be more likely to establish in a novel habitat if it relies on a pheromone channel that is different to that of native species active at the same time of year and day, allowing for unhindered mate location (i.e., pheromone-free space hypothesis). In this study, we first tested the attractiveness of single pheromone components (i.e., racemic 3-hydroxyhexan-2-one, racemic 3-hydroxyoctan-2-one, and syn-2,3-hexanediol), and their binary and tertiary combinations, to native and exotic longhorn beetle species in Canada and Italy. Second, we exploited trap catches to determine their seasonal flight activity. Third, we used pheromone-baited "timer traps" to determine longhorn beetle daily flight activity. The response to single pheromones and their combinations was mostly species specific but the combination of more than one pheromone component allowed catch of multiple species simultaneously in Italy. The response of the exotic species to pheromone components, coupled with results on seasonal and daily flight activity, provided partial support for the pheromone-free space hypothesis. This study aids in the understanding of longhorn beetle chemical ecology and confirms that pheromones can play a key role in longhorn beetle invasions.

Optimal invasive species surveillance in the real world: practical advances from research

When alien species make incursions into novel environments, early detection through surveillance is critical to minimizing their impacts and preserving the possibility of timely eradication. However, incipient populations can be difficult to detect, and usually, there are limited resources for surveillance or other response activities. Modern optimization techniques enable surveillance planning that accounts for the biology and expected behavior of an invasive species while exploring multiple scenarios to identify the most cost-effective options. Nevertheless, most optimization models omit some real-world limitations faced by practitioners during multi-day surveillance campaigns, such as daily working time constraints, the time and cost to access survey sites and personnel work schedules. Consequently, surveillance managers must rely on their own judgments to handle these logistical details, and default to their experience during implementation. This is sensible, but their decisions may fail to address all relevant factors and may not be cost-effective. A better planning strategy is to determine optimal routing to survey sites while accounting for common daily logistical constraints. Adding site access and other logistical constraints imposes restrictions on the scope and extent of the surveillance effort, yielding costlier but more realistic expectations of the surveillance outcomes than in a theoretical planning case.

Natal origin of the invasive biosecurity pest, brown marmorated stink bug (Halyomorpha halys: Penatomidae), determined by dual-element stable isotope-ratio mass spectrometry

BACKGROUND

Post-border detection of a single brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) in New Zealand warranted a biosecurity response, the nature of which would be influenced by its status as part of an established population or as a new arrival. Stable isotope analysis has the potential to determine natal origins, but is difficult to achieve for samples as small as a single insect. Here an analytical modification to measure small samples was successfully trialled as a means to supply evidence as to the local or exotic natal origin of the intercepted BMSB specimen.

RESULTS

Sufficient analytical sensitivity was achieved using a modified isotope ratio mass spectrometry method, involving thermolysis and carbon monoxide cryofocusing, to enable the simultaneous analysis of δ² H and δ¹⁸ O from wings of the post-border BMSB sample. The values were much lower than those of the New Zealand green vegetable bug, used as a local reference. However, they fell within the range of those for BMSB of Northern Hemisphere origin intercepted at the New Zealand border over the same time period, specifically overlapping with the USA and Italy, but not China.

CONCLUSION

The isotope signature of the post-border detected BMSB suggested a significantly cooler climate than the North Island of New Zealand, indicating that it was a new arrival and did not represent an established population. © 2019 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Will growing invasive arthropod biodiversity outpace our ability for eradication?

The Global Eradication Database documents 811 eradication attempts against invasive arthropods since 1890, in 104 countries. Eradication programs show a greater than exponential increase in the number of programs started in recent decades. In addition, there is a trend of a rapidly diversifying burden of the most severe threats. The species richness showed a three-fold increase in number of species under eradication in the last 50 yr, and all taxonomic levels rose dramatically. The increase in number of eradication programs shows that current management measures for constraining the spread of invasive species are inadequate. A similar surge in the number of governments trying to prevent the establishment of new pests has occurred. Increased biodiversity of arthropod eradication targets includes new pest groups with fewer tools developed for management. We argue that a rapid increase in biodiversity of invasive and economically or environmentally damaging organisms represents a substantial and underestimated challenge for managers wanting to prevent their establishment, requiring a shift in research focus to accelerate delimitation and suppression options with less reliance on insecticides.

Extending the Limit of Measurement for Dual H and O Isotope Ratios Using Thermolysis

Hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios are of use to determine the origin of matter. Thermolysis is used to convert matter to H₂ and CO gases, which are the respective substrates for measurement of these two isotope ratios, using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS). This work was done in response to the need for analysis of small invasive insects, requiring a decrease in the limit of measurement for isotope ratiometry of hydrogen and oxygen, while determining both isotope ratios on the same sample. Miniaturization of a thermolysis reactor using commercially available components is presented that results in improvement in the limit of measurement for both hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios. δ²H was determined on 0.4 μg of H and δ¹⁸O determined on 5 μg of O with precisions of 3 mUr and 0.7 mUr, respectively. To extend the usable sample size range or increase the resolution of sampling gives obvious advantages in forensic and environmental sciences. The technique has been applied to determining the natural origin of Tephritidae fruit flies for which only the wing is suitable for analysis and provides just 60 μg of material for analysis.

Managing biological invasions in urban environments with the acceptance sampling approach

Detections of invasive species outbreaks are often followed by the removal of susceptible host organisms in order to slow the spread of the invading pest population. We propose the acceptance sampling approach for detection and optional removal of susceptible host trees to manage an outbreak of the emerald ash borer (EAB), a highly destructive forest pest, in Winnipeg, Canada. We compare the strategy with two common delimiting survey techniques that do not consider follow-up management actions such as host removal. Our results show that the management objective influences the survey strategy. The survey-only strategies maximized the capacity to detect new infestations and prioritized sites with high likelihood of being invaded. Comparatively, the surveys with subsequent host removal actions allocated most of the budget to sites where complete host removal would minimize the pest's ability to spread to uninvaded locations. Uncertainty about the pest's spread causes the host removal measures to cover a larger area in a uniform spatial pattern and extend to farther distances from already infested sites. If a decision maker is ambiguity-averse and strives to avoid the worst-case damages from the invasion, the optimal strategy is to survey more sites with high host densities and remove trees from sites at farther distances, where EAB arrivals may be uncertain, but could cause significant damage if not detected quickly. Accounting for the uncertainty about spread helps develop a more robust pest management strategy. The approach is generalizable and can support management programs for new pest incursions.

Effect of Lure Combination on Fruit Fly Surveillance Sensitivity

Surveillance for invading insect pests is costly and the trapper usually finds the traps empty of the target pest. Since the successful establishment of new pests is an uncommon event, multiple lures placed into one trap might increase the efficiency of the surveillance system. We investigated the effect of the combination of the Tephritidae male lures - trimedlure, cuelure, raspberry ketone and methyl eugenol - on catch of Ceratitis capitata, Zeugodacus cucurbitae, Bactrocera tryoni, B. dorsalis, B. aquilonis and B. tenuifascia in Australia and the USA (not all species are present in each country). The increase in trap density required to offset any reduction in catch due to the presence of lures for other Tephritidae was estimated. The effect of increasing trap density to maintain surveillance sensitivity was modelled for a hypothetical population of B. tryoni males, where the effective sampling area of cuelure traps for this species has been estimated. The 3-way combination significantly reduced the catch of the methyl eugenol-responsive B. dorsalis. Unexpectedly, we found that trimedlure-baited traps that contained methyl eugenol had ×3.1 lower catch of C. capitata than in trimedlure-only-baited traps in Australia, but not in Hawaii where no difference in catch was observed, we cannot satisfactorily explain this result. Based on the data presented here and from previous research, combinations of some male lures for the early detection of tephritid flies appear compatible and where there is any reduction in surveillance sensitivity observed, this can be offset by increasing the density of traps in the area.

Comparing forest governance models against invasive biological threats

In order to take account of the negative effects of invasive species and pathogens on networked forest areas, we study the dynamics of stochastic closed-loop input-output systems faced with the risk of external random perturbations. The extension of previous works on robustness is carried out by introducing a negative feedback mechanism, such that the output from an element contained in the system behaves as a negative input toward elements to which it is connected. Through the study of an overall network divided into compartments barely connected to one another, we first consider the pathway pertaining to monofunctional zoning. By looking at a single aggregated structure, we then move our focus to the pathway proper to multifunctionality. Our results show that, at significant time scales, the monofunctional-zoning mode of forest governance, generally applied in Australasia, performs robustly against invasive biological threats at all levels of outbreak probability. The multifunctional mode of forest governance, further practiced in Western Europe, is mainly sturdy when the probability of invasion verges into certainty. Should this not be the case, robustness is ensured would disturbers and perturbations be uncorrelated. Accordingly, the monofunctional pathway can afford adopting control strategies for outbreak avoidance, which is only acceptable in case the expected invasion can be halted. For the sake of maintaining low likelihood of invasion, the multifunctional pathway is compelled to applying preventive strategies.

Multiple-Lure Surveillance Trapping for Ips Bark Beetles, Monochamus Longhorn Beetles, and Halyomorpha halys (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)

Invasions by insects introduced via international trade continue to cause worldwide impacts. Surveillance programs using traps baited with host volatiles and pheromones can detect incursions of nonnative species. We report on two experiments executed to determine if attractants for several insect species can be combined without compromising trap catches and detection ability of target species. In the first experiment, we tested the effect of bark beetle pheromones (plus α-pinene) and trap contact with foliage on trap catches of the brown marmorated stink bug Halyomorpha halys Stål (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in traps baited with a mixture of bisabolenes and methyl (E,E,Z)-2,4,6-decatrienoate. Trap capture of H. halys adults was greater in traps not in contact with foliage, and the bark beetle pheromones ipsenol and ipsdienol did not affect trap capture of H. halys. In the second experiment, we tested the effects of multi-lure interactions among the primary host attractants α-pinene and ethanol, and the pheromones monochamol, ipsenol, ipsdienol, lanierone, and the H. halys compounds, on trap captures of various forest and agricultural insect pests. Specifically, we targeted Monochamus spp. (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), Ips spp. (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) and H. halys. We found that a combination of all lures did not catch significantly lower numbers of Monochamus carolinensis Olivier, Monochamus scutellatus Say (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), and Ips pini Say (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) than lure combinations missing components although removal of both lanierone and ipsdienol somewhat increased catches of Ips grandicollis Eichhoff (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Our results support the use of traps baited with a full combination of these attractants in surveillance programs. This should reduce costs and increase detection rates of a wider range of conifer forest pests and H. halys.

Do an invasive organism's dispersal characteristics affect how we should search for it?

We investigated how an invading organism's dispersal characteristics affect the efficacy of different surveillance strategies aimed at detecting that organism as it spreads following a new incursion. Specifically, we assessed whether, out of the surveillance strategies tested, the best surveillance strategy for an organism varied depending on the way it disperses. We simulated the spread of invasive organisms with different dispersal characteristics including leptokurtic and non-leptokurtic kernels with different median dispersal distances and degrees of kurtosis. We evaluated surveillance strategies with different sampling arrangements, densities and frequencies. Surveillance outcomes compared included the time to detection, the total spread of the invasion and the likelihood of the invasion reaching new areas. Overall, dispersal characteristics affected the surveillance outcomes, but the grid surveillance arrangement consistently performed best in terms of early detection and reduced spread within and between fields. Additionally, the results suggest that dispersal characteristics may influence spread to new areas and surveillance strategies. Therefore, knowledge on an invasive organism's dispersal characteristics may influence how we search for it and how we manage the invasion to prevent spread to new areas.

A modeling framework for the establishment and spread of invasive species in heterogeneous environments

Natural and human-induced events are continuously altering the structure of our landscapes and as a result impacting the spatial relationships between individual landscape elements and the species living in the area. Yet, only recently has the influence of the surrounding landscape on invasive species spread started to be considered. The scientific community increasingly recognizes the need for broader modeling framework that focuses on cross-study comparisons at different spatiotemporal scales. Using two illustrative examples, we introduce a general modeling framework that allows for a systematic investigation of the effect of habitat change on invasive species establishment and spread. The essential parts of the framework are (i) a mechanistic spatially explicit model (a modular dispersal framework-MDIG) that allows population dynamics and dispersal to be modeled in a geographical information system (GIS), (ii) a landscape generator that allows replicated landscape patterns with partially controllable spatial properties to be generated, and (iii) landscape metrics that depict the essential aspects of landscape with which dispersal and demographic processes interact. The modeling framework provides functionality for a wide variety of applications ranging from predictions of the spatiotemporal spread of real species and comparison of potential management strategies, to theoretical investigation of the effect of habitat change on population dynamics. Such a framework allows to quantify how small-grain landscape characteristics, such as habitat size and habitat connectivity, interact with life-history traits to determine the dynamics of invasive species spread in fragmented landscape. As such, it will give deeper insights into species traits and landscape features that lead to establishment and spread success and may be key to preventing new incursions and the development of efficient monitoring, surveillance, control or eradication programs.

A safety rule approach to surveillance and eradication of biological invasions

Uncertainty about future spread of invasive organisms hinders planning of effective response measures. We present a two-stage scenario optimization model that accounts for uncertainty about the spread of an invader, and determines survey and eradication strategies that minimize the expected program cost subject to a safety rule for eradication success. The safety rule includes a risk standard for the desired probability of eradication in each invasion scenario. Because the risk standard may not be attainable in every scenario, the safety rule defines a minimum proportion of scenarios with successful eradication. We apply the model to the problem of allocating resources to survey and eradicate the Asian longhorned beetle (ALB, Anoplophora glabripennis) after its discovery in the Greater Toronto Area, Ontario, Canada. We use historical data on ALB spread to generate a set of plausible invasion scenarios that characterizes the uncertainty of the beetle's extent. We use these scenarios in the model to find survey and tree removal strategies that minimize the expected program cost while satisfying the safety rule. We also identify strategies that reduce the risk of very high program costs. Our results reveal two alternative strategies: (i) delimiting surveys and subsequent tree removal based on the surveys' outcomes, or (ii) preventive host tree removal without referring to delimiting surveys. The second strategy is more likely to meet the stated objectives when the capacity to detect an invader is low or the aspirations to eradicate it are high. Our results provide practical guidelines to identify the best management strategy given aspirational targets for eradication and spending.

The effects of invasive pests and pathogens on strategies for forest diversification

Diversification of the tree species composition of production forests is a frequently advocated strategy to increase resilience to pests and pathogens; however, there is a lack of a general framework to analyse the impact of economic and biological conditions on the optimal planting strategy in the presence of tree disease. To meet this need we use a novel bioeconomic model to quantitatively assess the effect of tree disease on the optimal planting proportion of two tree species. We find that diversifying the species composition can reduce the economic loss from disease even when the benefit from the resistant species is small. However, this key result is sensitive to a pathogen's characteristics (probability of arrival, time of arrival, rate of spread of infection) and the losses (damage of the disease to the susceptible species and reduced benefit of planting the resistant species). This study provides an exemplar framework which can be used to help understand the effect of a pathogen on forest management strategies.

Eradication of Invading Insect Populations: From Concepts to Applications

Eradication is the deliberate elimination of a species from an area. Given that international quarantine measures can never be 100% effective, surveillance for newly arrived populations of nonnative species coupled with their eradication represents an important strategy for excluding potentially damaging insect species. Historically, eradication efforts have not always been successful and have sometimes been met with public opposition. But new developments in our understanding of the dynamics of low-density populations, the availability of highly effective treatment tactics, and bioeconomic analyses of eradication strategies offer new opportunities for developing more effective surveillance and eradication programs. A key component that connects these new developments is the harnessing of Allee effects, which naturally promote localized species extinction. Here we review these developments and suggest how research might enhance eradication strategies.