Fishery consequences of marine reserves: short-term pain for longer-term gain

Marine reserves promote cycles in fish populations on ecological and evolutionary time scales

Marine reserves are considered essential for sustainable fisheries, although their effectiveness compared to traditional fisheries management is debated. The effect of marine reserves is mostly studied on short ecological time scales, whereas fisheries-induced evolution is a well-established consequence of harvesting. Using a size-structured population model for an exploited fish population of which individuals spend their early life stages in a nursery habitat, we show that marine reserves will shift the mode of population regulation from low size-selective survival late in life to low, early-life survival due to strong resource competition. This shift promotes the occurrence of rapid ecological cycles driven by density-dependent recruitment as well as much slower evolutionary cycles driven by selection for the optimal body to leave the nursery grounds, especially with larger marine reserves. The evolutionary changes increase harvesting yields in terms of total biomass but cause disproportionately large decreases in yields of larger, adult fish. Our findings highlight the importance of carefully considering the size of marine reserves and the individual life history of fish when managing eco-evolutionary marine systems to ensure both population persistence as well as stable fisheries yields.

No-take marine protected areas enhance the benefits of kelp-forest restoration for fish but not fisheries

Kelp habitat restoration is gaining traction as a management action to support recovery in areas affected by severe disturbances, thereby ensuring the sustainability of ecosystem services. Knowing when and where to restore is a major question. Using a single-species population model, we consider how restoring inside marine protected areas (MPAs) might benefit coastal fish populations and fisheries. We found that MPAs can greatly enhance the population benefits of restoration but at a small cost to fishery yields. Generally, restoring inside MPAs had a better overall gains-loss outcome, especially if the system is under high fishing pressure or severe habitat loss. However, restoring outside became preferable when predatory fish indirectly benefit kelp habitats. In either case, successful restoration actions may be difficult to detect in time-series data due to complex transient dynamics. We provide context for setting management goals and social expectations for the ecosystem service implications of restoration in MPAs.

Recruitment variability and sampling design interact to influence the detectability of protected area effects

Correctly identifying the effects of a human impact on a system is a persistent challenge in ecology, driven partly by the variable nature of natural systems. This is particularly true in many marine fishery species, which frequently experience large temporal fluctuations in recruitment that produce interannual variations in populations. This variability complicates efforts to maintain stocks at management targets or detect the effects of rebuilding efforts. We address this challenge in the context of no-take marine reserves by exploring how variable larval recruitment could interact with the timing of reserve establishment and choice of sampling design to affect population dynamics and the detectability of reserve effects. To predict population changes in the years following a no-take reserve implementation, we first tested for periodicity in larval recruitment in an important U.S. Pacific coast recreational fishery species (kelp bass, Paralabrax clathratus) and then included that pattern in a population model. We also used this model to determine the detectability of population increases under alternative sampling approaches and minimum age sampled. Kelp bass larval recruitment in the Channel Islands, California, peaked every about six (major) and about two (minor) years. Our model showed that establishing a reserve during a peak or trough enhanced or delayed, respectively, the post-reserve population increases. However, establishing a reserve during a recruitment peak could obscure a failing reserve, that is, a reserve that is unable to secure longer-term metapopulation persistence. Recruitment peaks and troughs also interacted with sampling design to affect the detectability of reserve effects. Designs that compared inside-outside were the most robust to variable recruitment, but failed to capture whether the reserve has improved metapopulation growth. Designs that included a time element (e.g., before-after) are more suited to assessing reserve effectiveness, but were sensitive to recruitment variation and detectability can change year-to-year. Notably, detectability did not always increase monotonically with reserve age; the optimal time for detectability depended on the minimum age of organisms sampled and was greatest when the cohort of a major recruitment peak first appeared in the sampling. We encourage managers to account for variable recruitment when planning monitoring and assessment programs.

Transient dynamics during kelp forest recovery from fishing across multiple trophic levels

Outcomes of management efforts to recover or restore populations of harvested species can be highly dependent on environmental and community context. Predator-prey interactions can alter recovery trajectories, and the timing of management actions within multi-trophic level harvest scenarios may influence the dynamics of recovery and lead to management trade-offs. Recent work using a generalist predator-prey model suggests that management promoting synchronized recovery of predators and prey leads to faster and less variable recovery trajectories than sequential recovery (predator or prey first). However, more complex communities may require different management actions to minimize recovery time and variability. Here, we use a tri-trophic level rocky reef community dynamics model with size-structure and fisheries at multiple trophic levels to investigate the importance of three ecological processes to recovery of fished communities: (1) size-structured predation, (2) non-consumptive effects of predators on prey behavior, and (3) varying levels of recruitment. We also test the effects of initiating recovery from community states associated with varying degrees of fishery-induced degradation and develop a simulation in which the basal resource (kelp) is harvested. In this system, a predator-first closure generally leads to the least volatile and quickest recovery, whether from a kelp forest, urchin barren, or intermediate community state. The benefits gained by selecting this strategy are magnified when recovering from the degraded community, the urchin barren, because initial conditions in the degraded state lead to lengthy recovery times. However, the shape of the size-structured predation relationship can strongly affect recovery volatility, where the differences between alternate management strategies are negated with size-independent predation. External recruitment reduces return times by bolstering the predatory lobster population. These results show that in a tightly linked tri-trophic level food web with top-down control, a predator-first fishery closure can be the most effective strategy to reduce volatility and shorten recovery, particularly when the system is starting from the degraded community state. Given the ubiquity of top predator loss across many ecosystems, we highlight the value of incorporating insights from community ecology into ecosystem management.

Protecting the global ocean for biodiversity, food and climate

The ocean contains unique biodiversity, provides valuable food resources and is a major sink for anthropogenic carbon. Marine protected areas (MPAs) are an effective tool for restoring ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services1,2, but at present only 2.7% of the ocean is highly protected3. This low level of ocean protection is due largely to conflicts with fisheries and other extractive uses. To address this issue, here we developed a conservation planning framework to prioritize highly protected MPAs in places that would result in multiple benefits today and in the future. We find that a substantial increase in ocean protection could have triple benefits, by protecting biodiversity, boosting the yield of fisheries and securing marine carbon stocks that are at risk from human activities. Our results show that most coastal nations contain priority areas that can contribute substantially to achieving these three objectives of biodiversity protection, food provision and carbon storage. A globally coordinated effort could be nearly twice as efficient as uncoordinated, national-level conservation planning. Our flexible prioritization framework could help to inform both national marine spatial plans4 and global targets for marine conservation, food security and climate action.

Management implications of long transients in ecological systems

The underlying biological processes that govern many ecological systems can create very long periods of transient dynamics. It is often difficult or impossible to distinguish this transient behaviour from similar dynamics that would persist indefinitely. In some cases, a shift from the transient to the long-term, stable dynamics may occur in the absence of any exogenous forces. Recognizing the possibility that the state of an ecosystem may be less stable than it appears is crucial to the long-term success of management strategies in systems with long transient periods. Here we demonstrate the importance of considering the potential of transient system behaviour for management actions across a range of ecosystem organizational scales and natural system types. Developing mechanistic models that capture essential system dynamics will be crucial for promoting system resilience and avoiding system collapses.

A global network of marine protected areas for food

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are conservation tools that are increasingly implemented, with growing national commitments for MPA expansion. Perhaps the greatest challenge to expanded use of MPAs is the perceived trade-off between protection and food production. Since MPAs can benefit both conservation and fisheries in areas experiencing overfishing and since overfishing is common in many coastal nations, we ask how MPAs can be designed specifically to improve fisheries yields. We assembled distribution, life history, and fisheries exploitation data for 1,338 commercially important stocks to derive an optimized network of MPAs globally. We show that strategically expanding the existing global MPA network to protect an additional 5% of the ocean could increase future catch by at least 20% via spillover, generating 9 to 12 million metric tons more food annually than in a business-as-usual world with no additional protection. Our results demonstrate how food provisioning can be a central driver of MPA design, offering a pathway to strategically conserve ocean areas while securing seafood for the future.

Transient inconsistency between population density and fisheries yields without bycatch species extinction

Recent studies have demonstrated the great advantages of marine reserves in solving bycatch problems by maintaining the persistence (i.e., avoid extinction) of endangered species without sacrificing the fisheries yields of target species. However, transient phenomena rather than equilibrium states of population dynamics still require further research. Here, with a simple and general model, the transient dynamics of the target fish species are investigated under management which minimizes extinction risk of the bycatch species. An interesting finding is that fisheries yields can strongly fluctuate even if population density both inside and outside marine reserve only slightly varies (or vice versa), leading to transient inconsistency between the population densities and fisheries yields. This finding suggests that population density dynamics of the target fish species cannot be used to predict the transient phenomena of fisheries yields (or vice versa) in fisheries management. However, the unpredictability can be receded as the sensitivity analyses show that a large marine reserve size and low escapement rate can shorten the transient duration.

Influence of protogynous sex change on recovery of fish populations within marine protected areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly implemented as a conservation tool worldwide. In many cases, they are managed adaptively: the abundance of target species is monitored, and observations are compared to some model-based expectation for the trajectory of population recovery to ensure that the MPA is achieving its goals. Most previous analyses of the transient (short-term) response of populations to the cessation of fishing inside MPAs have dealt only with gonochore (fixed-sex) species. However, many important fishery species are protogynous hermaphrodites (female-to-male sex-changing). Because size-selective harvest will predominantly target males in these species, harvesting not only reduces abundance but also skews the sex ratio toward females. Thus the response to MPA implementation will involve changes in both survival and sex ratio, and ultimately reproductive output. We used an age-structured model of a generic sex-changing fish population to compare transient population dynamics after MPA implementation to those of an otherwise similar gonochore population and examine how different features of sex-changing life history affect those dynamics. We examined both demographically open (most larval recruitment comes from outside the MPA) and demographically closed (most larval recruitment is locally produced) dynamics. Under both scenarios, population recovery of protogynous species takes longer when fishing was more intense pre-MPA (as in gonochores), but also depends heavily on the mating function, the degree to which the sex ratio affects reproduction. If few males are needed and reproduction is not affected by a highly female-biased sex ratio, then population recovery is much faster; if males are a limiting resource, then increases in abundance after MPA implementation are much slower than for gonochores. Unfortunately, the mating function is largely unknown for fishes. In general, we expect that most protogynous species with haremic mating systems will be in the first category (few males needed), though there is at least one example of a fish species (though not a sex-changing species) for which males are limiting. Thus a better understanding of the importance of male fish to population dynamics is needed for the adaptive management of MPAs.

Setting expected timelines of fished population recovery for the adaptive management of a marine protected area network

Adaptive management of marine protected areas (MPAs) requires developing methods to evaluate whether monitoring data indicate that they are performing as expected. Modeling the expected responses of targeted species to an MPA network, with a clear timeline for those expectations, can aid in the development of a monitoring program that efficiently evaluates expectations over appropriate time frames. Here, we describe the expected trajectories in abundance and biomass following MPA implementation for populations of 19 nearshore fishery species in California. To capture the process of filling in the age structure truncated by fishing, we used age-structured population models with stochastic larval recruitment to predict responses to MPA implementation. We implemented both demographically open (high larval immigration) and closed (high self-recruitment) populations to model the range of possible trajectories as they depend on recruitment dynamics. From these simulations, we quantified the time scales over which anticipated increases in abundance and biomass inside MPAs would become statistically detectable. Predicted population biomass responses range from little change, for species with low fishing rates, to increasing by a factor of nearly seven, for species with high fishing rates before MPA establishment. Increases in biomass following MPA implementation are usually greater in both magnitude and statistical detectability than increases in abundance. For most species, increases in abundance would not begin to become detectable for at least 10 years after implementation. Overall, these results inform potential indicator metrics (biomass), potential indicator species (those with a high fishing : natural mortality ratio), and time frame (>10 yr) for MPA monitoring assessment as part of the adaptive management process.

Small-sized and well-enforced Marine Protected Areas provide ecological benefits for piscivorous fish populations worldwide

Many piscivorous fish species are depleted and/or threatened around the world. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are tools for conservation and fisheries management, though there is still controversy regarding the best design for increasing their ecological effectiveness. Here, on the basis of a weighted meta-analytical approach, we have assessed the effect of 32 MPAs, distributed worldwide, on the biomass and density of piscivorous fishes. We analysed the MPA features and the biological, commercial and ecological characteristics of fishes that may affect the response of species to protection. We found a positive effect on the biomass and density of piscivores inside MPAs. This effect was stronger for the biomass of medium-sized fishes (in relation to the maximum size reported for the species) and the density of large and gregarious species. The size of the no-take zone had a significant negative impact on both response variables and differed according to the level of enforcement, with smaller no-take zones having higher levels of enforcement. Thus, MPAs help to protect piscivorous fish species, with smaller, but well enforced reserves being more effective for the protection of the local populations of piscivorous fishes throughout the world.

Marine reserves stabilize fish populations and fisheries yields in disturbed coral reef systems

Marine reserve networks are increasingly implemented to conserve biodiversity and enhance the persistence and resilience of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the efficacy of marine reserve networks in frequently disturbed systems, such as coral reefs, has rarely been evaluated. Here we analyze a well-mixed larval pool model and a spatially explicit model based on a well-documented coral trout (Plectropomus spp.) metapopulation in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia, to determine the effects of marine reserve coverage and placement (in relation to larval connectivity and disturbance heterogeneity) on the temporal stability of fisheries yields and population biomass in environmentally disturbed systems. We show that marine reserves can contribute to stabilizing fishery yield while increasing metapopulation persistence, irrespective of whether reserves enhance or diminish average fishery yields. However, reserve placement and the level of larval connectivity among subpopulations were important factors affecting the stability and sustainability of fisheries and fish metapopulations. Protecting a mix of disturbed and non-disturbed reefs, rather than focusing on the least-disturbed habitats, was the most consistently beneficial approach across a range of dispersal and reserve coverage scenarios. Placing reserves only in non-disturbed areas was the most beneficial for biomass enhancement, but had variable results for fisheries and could potentially destabilize yields in systems with well-mixed larval or those that are moderately fished. We also found that focusing protection on highly disturbed areas could actually increase variability in yields and biomass, especially when degraded reef reserves were distant and poorly connected to the meta-population. Our findings have implications for the design and implementation of reserve networks in the presence of stochastic, patchy environmental disturbances.

Long-Distance Benefits of Marine Reserves: Myth or Reality?

Long-distance (>40-km) dispersal from marine reserves is poorly documented; yet, it can provide essential benefits such as seeding fished areas or connecting marine reserves into networks. From a meta-analysis, we suggest that the spatial scale of marine connectivity is underestimated due to the limited geographic extent of sampling designs. We also found that the largest marine reserves (>1000km²) are the most isolated. These findings have important implications for the assessment of evolutionary, ecological, and socio-economic long-distance benefits of marine reserves. We conclude that existing methods to infer dispersal should consider the up-to-date genomic advances and also expand the spatial scale of sampling designs. Incorporating long-distance connectivity in conservation planning will contribute to increase the benefits of marine reserve networks.

Timescales and the management of ecological systems

Human management of ecological systems, including issues like fisheries, invasive species, and restoration, as well as others, often must be undertaken with limited information. This means that developing general principles and heuristic approaches is important. Here, I focus on one aspect, the importance of an explicit consideration of time, which arises because of the inherent limitations in the response of ecological systems. I focus mainly on simple systems and models, beginning with systems without density dependence, which are therefore linear. Even for these systems, it is important to recognize the necessary delays in the response of the ecological system to management. Here, I also provide details for optimization that show how general results emerge and emphasize how delays due to demography and life histories can change the optimal management approach. A brief discussion of systems with density dependence and tipping points shows that the same themes emerge, namely, that when considering issues of restoration or management to change the state of an ecological system, that timescales need explicit consideration and may change the optimal approach in important ways.

Synergistic Effects of Marine Reserves and Harvest Controls on the Abundance and Catch Dynamics of a Coral Reef Fishery

Marine no-take reserves, where fishing and other extractive activities are prohibited, have well-established conservation benefits [1], yet their impacts on fisheries remains contentious [2-4]. For fishery species, reserves are often implemented alongside more conventional harvest strategies, including catch and size limits [2, 5]. However, catch and fish abundances observed post-intervention are often attributed to reserves, without explicitly estimating the potential contribution of concurrent management interventions [2, 3, 6-9]. Here we test a metapopulation model against observed fishery [10] and population [11] data for an important coral reef fishery (coral trout; Plectropomus spp.) in Australia's Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) to evaluate how the combined increase in reserve area [12] and reduction in fishing effort [13, 14] in 2004 influenced changes in fish stocks and the commercial fishery. We found that declines in catch, increases in catch rates, and increases in biomass since 2004 were substantially attributable to the integration of direct effort controls with the rezoning, rather than the rezoning alone. The combined management approach was estimated to have been more productive for fish and fisheries than if the rezoning had occurred alone and comparable to what would have been obtained with effort controls alone. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the direct effort controls prevented initial decreases in catch per unit effort that would have otherwise occurred with the rezoning. Our findings demonstrate that by concurrently restructuring the fishery, the conservation benefits of reserves were enhanced and the fishery cost of rezoning the reserve network was socialized, mitigating negative impacts on individual fishers.

Planning Marine Reserve Networks for Both Feature Representation and Demographic Persistence Using Connectivity Patterns

Marine reserve networks must ensure the representation of important conservation features, and also guarantee the persistence of key populations. For many species, designing reserve networks is complicated by the absence or limited availability of spatial and life-history data. This is particularly true for data on larval dispersal, which has only recently become available. However, systematic conservation planning methods currently incorporate demographic processes through unsatisfactory surrogates. There are therefore two key challenges to designing marine reserve networks that achieve feature representation and demographic persistence constraints. First, constructing a method that efficiently incorporates persistence as well as complementary feature representation. Second, incorporating persistence using a mechanistic description of population viability, rather than a proxy such as size or distance. Here we construct a novel systematic conservation planning method that addresses both challenges, and parameterise it to design a hypothetical marine reserve network for fringing coral reefs in the Keppel Islands, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. For this application, we describe how demographic persistence goals can be constructed for an important reef fish species in the region, the bar-cheeked trout (Plectropomus maculatus). We compare reserve networks that are optimally designed for either feature representation or demographic persistence, with a reserve network that achieves both goals simultaneously. As well as being practically applicable, our analyses also provide general insights into marine reserve planning for both representation and demographic persistence. First, persistence constraints for dispersive organisms are likely to be much harder to achieve than representation targets, due to their greater complexity. Second, persistence and representation constraints pull the reserve network design process in divergent directions, making it difficult to efficiently achieve both constraints. Although our method can be readily applied to the data-rich Keppel Islands case study, we finally consider the factors that limit the method's utility in information-poor contexts common in marine conservation.