Ungulate co-occurrence in a landscape of antagonisms

Protected areas largely now exist as coupled natural-human ecosystems where human activities are increasingly forcing wildlife to adjust behaviors. For many ungulate species that rely on protected areas for their persistence, they must balance these anthropogenic pressures amid natural regulators. Here, we investigated the pressures exerted from humans and livestock, apex predators, and within guild competitors on ungulate co-occurrence patterns in a fragile protected area complex in West Africa. Specifically, we used multi-species occupancy modeling to quantify co-occurrence among four ungulates (Tragelaphus scriptus, Redunca redunca, Kobus kob, Phacochoerus africanus) and applied structural equation models to discern the relative contributions of pressures on co-occurrence patterns. We observed a strong spatial gradient across with higher co-occurrence in the wetter western portion of our ~13,000 km2 study area. Co-occurrence patterns among ungulate dyads ranged from 0.15 to 0.49 with the smallest body sized pair showing highest levels of sympatry, warthog and reedbuck. We found that anthropogenic pressures, namely cattle had the greatest effect in reducing sympatry among wild ungulates more strongly than the presence of African lions that also exhibited negative effects. Humans, hyenas, and competitors showed positive effects on ungulate co-occurrence. In a region of the world ongoing rapid socio-ecological change with increasing threats from climate and environmental instability, protected areas in West Africa represent a major safeguard for wildlife and human livelihoods alike. Our findings highlight the need for effective interventions that focus on large carnivore conservation, habitat restoration, and containment of livestock grazing to promote the coexistence of biodiversity and socio-economic goals within the region.

Time for a paradigm shift? Small carnivores' sensitivity highlights the importance of monitoring mid-rank predators in future global change studies

Research Highlight: Jachowski, D. S., Marneweck, C. J., Olfenbuttel, C., & Harris, S. N. (2024). Support for the size-mediated sensitivity hypothesis within a diverse carnivore community. Journal of Animal Ecology, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13916. A current paradigm in ecological research suggests that top predators are suitable sentinel species to identify ecosystem dysfunctions and monitor the effects of climate change. However, the adequacy of top predators to systematically take this function may be mistakenly inferred or unintentionally conflated from the fact that these species are regarded as biodiversity indicators or keystone, umbrella and flagship species in most ecosystems. Regarding terrestrial mammalian carnivores (order Carnivora), some researchers recently suggested that the smaller species likely possess a higher sensitivity to environmental changes than large carnivores because of their biological attributes and their intermediate position in food webs. To test this hypothesis, Jachowski et al. (2024) used camera trapping followed by occupancy and structural equation modelling to explore the dynamics of a diverse carnivore community and the factors that influence them. Their results confirmed that small carnivores are more sensitive to habitat changes and are interconnected by a greater number of significant pathways compared with larger carnivores. This support for the size-mediated sensitivity hypothesis strengthens the proposition that small carnivores (and other mid-rank predators) are ideal sentinel species for monitoring the effects of the wide range of contemporary and future environmental changes. Time will tell whether this new 'middle-out ecology' paradigm will be considered in future global change studies.

Support for the size-mediated sensitivity hypothesis within a diverse carnivore community

Carnivore community dynamics are governed by a complex set of often interacting biotic, abiotic and anthropogenic factors that are increasingly volatile as a result of global change. Understanding how these changing conditions influence carnivore communities is urgent because of the important role carnivores play within ecosystems at multiple trophic levels, and the conservation threats that many carnivores face globally. While a great deal of research attention has historically been focused on large carnivores within ecosystems, the size-mediated sensitivity hypothesis has recently been proposed where the smallest carnivore in a system is likely to be the most responsive to the diverse suite of ongoing environmental and anthropogenic changes within ecological communities. We deployed camera traps at 197 sites over 4 years to monitor a diverse suite of mammalian carnivores within the Blue Ridge Mountains of western North Carolina and then used a two-step occupancy modelling-structural equation modelling framework to investigate the relative support for four primary hypothesized drivers (interspecific competition/predation, habitat complexity, food availability and anthropogenic disturbance) on carnivore occurrence. We found that each of the 10 carnivores in our system responded differently to conditions associated with each of these four hypothesized drivers, but that small and medium-sized carnivores had a greater number of significant (p < 0.05) pathways by which these conditions were influencing occupancy relative to large carnivores. In particular, the smallest carnivore observed in our study was the only species for which we found support for each of the four hypothesized drivers influencing occupancy. Collectively, our study supports the size-mediated sensitivity hypothesis and suggests that small carnivores are ideal sentinel species for global change. We echo recent calls for adopting a middle-out approach to investigations into carnivore community dynamics by refocusing sustained monitoring and research efforts on smaller carnivores within systems.

Disentangling direct and indirect effects of extreme events on coastal wetland communities

One of the primary ways in which climate change will impact coastal freshwater wetlands is through changes in the frequency, intensity, timing and distribution of extreme weather events. Disentangling the direct and indirect mechanisms of population- and community-level responses to extreme events is vital to predicting how species composition of coastal wetlands will change under future conditions. We extended static structural equation modelling approaches to incorporate system dynamics in a multi-year multispecies occupancy model to quantify the effects of extreme weather events on a coastal freshwater wetland system. We used data from an 8-year study (2009-2016) on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge in Florida, USA, to quantify species-specific and community-level changes in amphibian and fish occupancy associated with two flooding events in 2012 and 2013. We examine how physical changes to the landscape, including potential changes in salinity and increased wetland connectivity, may have contributed to or exacerbated the effects of these extreme weather events on the biota of isolated coastal wetlands. We provide evidence that the primary effects of flooding on the amphibian community were through indirect mechanisms via changes in the composition of the sympatric fish community that may have had lethal (i.e. through direct predation) or non-lethal (i.e. through direct or indirect competitive interactions) effects. In addition, we have shown that amphibian species differed in their sensitivity to direct flooding effects and indirect changes in the fish community and wetland-specific conductance, which led to variable responses across the community. These effects led to the overall decline in amphibian species richness from 2009 to 2016, suggesting that wetland-breeding amphibian communities on St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge may not be resilient to predicted changes in coastal disturbance regimes because of climate change. Understanding both direct and indirect effects, as well as species interactions, is important for predicting the effects of a changing climate on individual species, communities and ecosystems.

Analysis of long- and short-term shoreline change dynamics: A study case of João Pessoa city in Brazil

The coastal area of João Pessoa city, Paraíba, Brazil, is densely populated and has a large flow of trade and services. More recently, this region has been suffering from the advance of the sea, which has caused changes in the shoreline and caused a decrease in the beach area and damage to various urban facilities. Thus, the spatiotemporal changes of the short- and long-term characteristics of the shoreline of João Pessoa city over the past 34 years (1985-2019) were calculated and the forcing mechanisms responsible for the shoreline changes were analyzed. Remote sensing data (Landsat 5-TM and 8-OLI) and statistical techniques, such as endpoint rate (EPR), linear regression rate (LRR) and weighted linear regression (WLR), using Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), were used. In this study, 351 transects ranging from ~1.1 km to ~6 km were analyzed within four zones (Zones I to IV), and the main controlling factors that influence the shoreline changes in these zones, such as sea level, tidal range, wave height, beach morphology and ocean currents, were discussed. The long-term change from 1985 to 2019 showed primarily accretion on the shoreline of João Pessoa city, with the rate of 0.55 m/year (WLR method); 282 transects showed accretion. The results showed that Zone-I, which was located in the south of the study area, was the only zone that primarily recorded erosion from 1985 to 2019, with a mean rate of -0.23 m/year according to the WLR method. According to the short-term shoreline change analysis, a cyclical pattern of erosion was observed in the 1985-1990, 1993-1999, 2005-2011 and 2014-2019 periods, and accretion was observed in the 1990-1993, 1999-2005 and 2011-2014 periods. It was inferred that the patterns of all analyzed zones were similar, i.e., when majority accretion was detected within a zone, the other zones also recorded accretion, except for during the period from 2014 to 2019, when Zone-I showed different behavior. Finally, the long- and short-term analyses showed that the coastal area of João Pessoa city is influenced by various forcing mechanism responsible for the shoreline changes.

Monitoring wetland water quality related to livestock grazing in amphibian habitats

Land use alteration such as livestock grazing can affect water quality in habitats of at-risk wildlife species. Data from managed wetlands are needed to understand levels of exposure for aquatic life stages and monitor grazing-related changes afield. We quantified spatial and temporal variation in water quality in wetlands occupied by threatened Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) at Klamath Marsh National Wildlife Refuge in Oregon, United States (US). We used analyses for censored data to evaluate the importance of habitat type and grazing history in predicting concentrations of nutrients, turbidity, fecal indicator bacteria (FIB; total coliforms, Escherichia coli (E. coli), and enterococci), and estrogenicity, an indicator of estrogenic activity. Nutrients (orthophosphate and ammonia) and enterococci varied over time and space, while E. coli, total coliforms, turbidity, and estrogenicity were more strongly associated with local livestock grazing metrics. Turbidity was correlated with several grazing-related constituents and may be particularly useful for monitoring water quality in landscapes with livestock use. Concentrations of orthophosphate and estrogenicity were elevated at several sites relative to published health benchmarks, and their potential effects on Rana pretiosa warrant further investigation. Our data provided an initial assessment of potential exposure of amphibians to grazing-related constituents in western US wetlands. Increased monitoring of surface water quality and amphibian population status in combination with controlled laboratory toxicity studies could help inform future research and targeted management strategies for wetlands with both grazing and amphibians of conservation concern.

Interactive range-limit theory (iRLT): An extension for predicting range shifts

A central theme of range-limit theory (RLT) posits that abiotic factors form high-latitude/altitude limits, whereas biotic interactions create lower limits. This hypothesis, often credited to Charles Darwin, is a pattern widely assumed to occur in nature. However, abiotic factors can impose constraints on both limits and there is scant evidence to support the latter prediction. Deviations from these predictions may arise from correlations between abiotic factors and biotic interactions, as a lack of data to evaluate the hypothesis, or be an artifact of scale. Combining two tenets of ecology-niche theory and predator-prey theory-provides an opportunity to understand how biotic interactions influence range limits and how this varies by trophic level. We propose an expansion of RLT, interactive RLT (iRLT), to understand the causes of range limits and predict range shifts. Incorporating the main predictions of Darwin's hypothesis, iRLT hypothesizes that abiotic and biotic factors can interact to impact both limits of a species' range. We summarize current thinking on range limits and perform an integrative review to evaluate support for iRLT and trophic differences along range margins, surveying the mammal community along the boreal-temperate and forest-tundra ecotones of North America. Our review suggests that range-limit dynamics are more nuanced and interactive than classically predicted by RLT. Many (57 of 70) studies indicate that biotic factors can ameliorate harsh climatic conditions along high-latitude/altitude limits. Conversely, abiotic factors can also mediate biotic interactions along low-latitude/altitude limits (44 of 68 studies). Both scenarios facilitate range expansion, contraction or stability depending on the strength and the direction of the abiotic or biotic factors. As predicted, biotic interactions most often occurred along lower limits, yet there were trophic differences. Carnivores were only limited by competitive interactions (n = 25), whereas herbivores were more influenced by predation and parasitism (77%; 55 of 71 studies). We highlight how these differences may create divergent range patterns along lower limits. We conclude by (a) summarizing iRLT; (b) contrasting how our model system and others fit this hypothesis and (c) suggesting future directions for evaluating iRLT.

Untangling the dynamics of persistence and colonization in microbial communities

A central goal of community ecology is to infer biotic interactions from observed distributions of co-occurring species. Evidence for biotic interactions, however, can be obscured by shared environmental requirements, posing a challenge for statistical inference. Here, we introduce a dynamic statistical model, based on probit regression, that quantifies the effects of spatial and temporal covariance in longitudinal co-occurrence data. We separate the fixed pairwise effects of species occurrences on persistence and colonization rates, a potential signal of direct interactions, from latent pairwise correlations in occurrence, a potential signal of shared environmental responses. We first validate our modeling framework with several simulation studies. Then, we apply the approach to a pressing epidemiological question by examining how human papillomavirus (HPV) types coexist. Our results suggest that while HPV types respond similarly to common host traits, direct interactions are sparse and weak, so that HPV type diversity depends largely on shared environmental drivers. Our modeling approach is widely applicable to microbial communities and provides valuable insights that should lead to more directed hypothesis testing and mechanistic modeling.

Parasite metacommunities: Evaluating the roles of host community composition and environmental gradients in structuring symbiont communities within amphibians

Ecologists increasingly report the structures of metacommunities for free-living species, yet far less is known about the composition of symbiont communities through space and time. Understanding the drivers of symbiont community patterns has implications ranging from emerging infectious disease to managing host microbiomes. Using symbiont communities from amphibian hosts sampled from wetlands of California, USA, we quantified the effects of spatial structure, habitat filtering and host community components on symbiont occupancy and overall metacommunity structure. We built upon a statistical method to describe metacommunity structure that accounts for imperfect detection in survey data-detection error-corrected elements of metacommunity structure-by adding an analysis to identify covariates of community turnover. We applied our model to a metacommunity of eight parasite taxa observed in 3,571 Pacific chorus frogs (Pseudacris regilla) surveyed from 174 wetlands over 5 years. Symbiont metacommunity structure varied across years, showing nested structure in 3 years and random structure in 2 years. Species turnover was most consistently influenced by spatial and host community components. Occupancy generally increased in more southeastern wetlands, and snail (intermediate host) community composition had strong effects on most symbiont taxa. We have used sophisticated but accessible statistical methods to reveal that spatial components-which influence colonization-and host community composition-which mediates transmission-both drive symbiont community composition in this system. These methods allow us to associate broad patterns of community turnover to local, species-level effects, ultimately improving our understanding of spatial community dynamics.

Fatal Attraction? Intraguild Facilitation and Suppression among Predators

Competition and suppression are recognized as dominant forces that structure predator communities. Facilitation via carrion provisioning, however, is a ubiquitous interaction among predators that could offset the strength of suppression. Understanding the relative importance of these positive and negative interactions is necessary to anticipate community-wide responses to apex predator declines and recoveries worldwide. Using state-sponsored wolf (Canis lupus) control in Alaska as a quasi experiment, we conducted snow track surveys of apex, meso-, and small predators to test for evidence of carnivore cascades (e.g., mesopredator release). We analyzed survey data using an integrative occupancy and structural equation modeling framework to quantify the strengths of hypothesized interaction pathways, and we evaluated fine-scale spatiotemporal responses of nonapex predators to wolf activity clusters identified from radio-collar data. Contrary to the carnivore cascade hypothesis, both meso- and small predator occupancy patterns indicated guild-wide, negative responses of nonapex predators to wolf abundance variations at the landscape scale. At the local scale, however, we observed a near guild-wide, positive response of nonapex predators to localized wolf activity. Local-scale association with apex predators due to scavenging could lead to landscape patterns of mesopredator suppression, suggesting a key link between occupancy patterns and the structure of predator communities at different spatial scales.

Cryopreservation of Luciola praeusta Kiesenwetter (Coleoptera: Lampyridae) embryos by vitrification

There is an urgent need to preserve the ever-decreasing number of different species of fireflies all over the world. We sought to develop a vitrification procedure to cryopreserve the firefly embryos. The late stages of Luciola praeusta Kiesenwetter embryos were collected. Several impermeable and permeable protectants with various concentrations in different mediums (TNM-FH insect medium, Grace's medium, Dulbecco's Modification of Eagle's Medium (DMEM) and Dulbecco's Phosphate-Buffered Saline (DPBS)) were used. Embryos culturing in TNM-FH medium yielded the highest survival rate of 75.3 ± 3.6%. One-step, two-step and three-step methods were used in equilibrium procedure respectively. The highest survival rate (73.7% ±3.2%) occurred in embryos treated by three-step method ((1.5 M ethylene glycol (EG) + 2 M EG plus 8% polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) + 3 M EG, 8% PVP and 15% trehalose). Additionally, embryos exposed to 0.5 M trehalose presented a significantly higher survival rate (71.8 ± 2.7%) than embryos preserved in 0.5 M sucrose.

Multilevel Models for the Distribution of Hosts and Symbionts

Symbiont occurrence is influenced by host occurrence and vice versa, which leads to correlations in host-symbiont distributions at multiple levels. Interactions between co-infecting symbionts within host individuals can cause correlations in the abundance of two symbiont species across individual hosts. Similarly, interactions between symbiont transmission and host population dynamics can drive correlations between symbiont and host abundance across habitat patches. If ignored, these interactions can confound estimated responses of hosts and symbionts to other factors. Here, we present a general hierarchical modeling framework for distributions of hosts and symbionts, estimating correlations in host-symbiont distributions at the among-site, within-site, among-species, and among-individual levels. We present an empirical example from a multi-host multi-parasite system involving amphibians and their micro- and macroparasites. Amphibian hosts and their parasites were correlated at multiple levels of organization. Macroparasites often co-infected individual hosts, but rarely co-infected with the amphibian chytrid fungus. Such correlations may result from interactions among parasites and hosts, joint responses to environmental factors, or sampling bias. Joint host-symbiont models account for environmental constraints and species interactions while partitioning variance and dependence in abundance at multiple levels. This framework can be adapted to a wide variety of study systems and sampling designs.