Factors Affecting Under-Five Mortality in Ethiopia: A Multilevel Negative Binomial Model

Protective role of health insurance coverage in reducing under-five mortality in Ethiopia: Gompertz inverse-Gaussian shared frailty modelling

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between health insurance coverage and under-five mortality in Ethiopia using data from the 2016 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS).

METHODS

The current study used a total of 10 641 under-five children from the 2016 EDHS. To identify the predictors, the Gompertz inverse-Gaussian shared frailty model was fitted. The theta value, Akaike Information Criteria and Bayesian Information Criteria were applied for model evaluation, and variables with p values less than 0.2 were included in the multivariable analysis. The strength and statistical significance of the associations were demonstrated by reporting the adjusted HR (AHR) with a 95% CI in the multivariable Gompertz inverse-Gaussian shared frailty model.

RESULTS

According to the study's findings, 96.46% of the children were born to mothers not covered by health insurance. The study found that health insurance coverage was significantly associated with a lower risk of under-five mortality (not covered: AHR=0.13; 95% CI 0.02, 0.95). Other factors that showed significant associations with under-five mortality include place of residency, family size, twin status, place of delivery and preceding birth interval.

CONCLUSION

The findings indicate that health insurance coverage in Ethiopia is significantly associated with a lower risk of mortality among children under five. However, coverage remains low among mothers of these children, highlighting an urgent need for policies and interventions aimed at expanding health insurance coverage and addressing key determinants of child health to reduce under-five mortality and improve child survival outcomes. Addressing gaps in health insurance and other contributing factors is vital for creating effective strategies to lower under-five mortality rates.

Under-five mortality and its associated factors in sub-Saharan Africa: a multilevel analysis of recent demographic and health surveys data based on Bayesian approach

BACKGROUND

An estimated 75.8 under-five deaths per 1000 live births occurred in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and factors associated with under-five mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

This study was based on secondary data sources from 33 Sub-Saharan countries' recent Demography and Health surveys from 2010 to 2020. A weighted sample of 360,397 under-five children was included in the study. Bayesian multilevel binary logistic regression was fitted using the brms R package. Besides, leave one out information criteria was used for model comparison. The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were reported for significant factors associated with under-five mortality.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

not applicable.

RESULTS

The prevalence of under-five mortality in sub Saharan Africa was 62 per 1000 live births (95%CI (56.29, 68.29). In sub region of SSA, it was 65 in central, 52 in eastern, 50 in southern and 73 in western region per 1000 live births. Multiple birth (AOR = 5.27; 95%CrI: 4.72, 5.87), number of under-five children 3 to 5 (AOR = 3.31; 95%CrI: 3.01, 3.60), caesarean section delivery (AOR = 1.64; 95%CrI: 1.47, 1.83), being unmarried (AOR = 1.16; 95%CrI 1.08, 1.26), using unimproved toilet (AOR = 1.08;95%CrI: 1.02, 1.16), birth order of 4th to 6th (AOR = 1.18; 95%CrI:1.1, 1.25),were risk factors of under-five mortality. Whereas, being female (AOR = 0.86; 95%CrI: 0.82, 0.91), preceding birth interval of 24-35 months (AOR = 0.61; 95%CrI: 0.57, 0.65) and above 36 months (AOR = 0.48; 95%CrI: 0.43, 0.49), ANC visit (AOR = 0.80; 95%CrI: 0.74 0.86), contraceptive use (AOR = 0.57; 95%CrI: 0.53, 0.61), were preventive factors of under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

Under-five mortality remains the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the risk factors of under-five mortality were found to be preventable. Policymakers and other stakeholders should enhance maternal education, lengthen birth interval, ANC visit, improved toilet facilities and, giving special attention to small size child and cesarean section delivery to reduce under-five mortality.

Sample Size Estimation for Correlated Count Data With Changes in Dispersion

Clinical endpoints based on repeated measurements arise in many clinical research studies, and require specialized methods for sample size and power calculations. In clinical trials that measure counts over time, such as bleeding events in hemophilia, the dispersion of their distributions might change upon treatment and the measurements might be correlated. The generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach has been widely used for modeling correlated data and comparing rates. In this paper, we investigate the properties of GEE when applied to count outcomes with changes in dispersion. We derive general closed-form formulas to estimate sample size when the dispersion parameters and distributions of count data vary across two correlated measurements based on the GEE approach. These formulas allow for power and sample size estimation for intra-participant comparison of rates before and after an intervention, randomized controlled trials with equal allocation, or matched pairs designs. These formulas are derived for the following distributions: Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial distributions, and do not assume that measurements before and after an intervention come from the same distribution. Furthermore, we propose modified methods for estimating sample size and confidence intervals for the negative binomial distributions to overcome Type I error inflation, which is especially useful for large changes in the negative binomial dispersion parameter. We perform simulations, and evaluate the performance of the empirical power and Type I error over a range of parameters. Applications and R functions implementing the methods are also provided.

Cost-effectiveness of implementing performance-based financing for improving maternal and child health in Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

Performance Based Financing (PBF) supports realization of universal health coverage by promoting bargaining between purchasers and health service providers through identifying priority services and monitoring indicators. In PBF, purchasers use health statistics and information to make decisions rather than merely reimbursing invoices. In this respect, PBF shares certain elements of strategic health purchasing. PBF implementation began in Ethiopia in 2015 as a pilot at one hospital and eight health centers. Prior to this the system predominantly followed input-based financing where providers were provided with a predetermined budget for inputs for service provision. The purpose of the study is to determine whether the implementation of PBF is cost-effective in improving maternal and child health in Ethiopia compared to the standard care.

METHODS

The current study used cost-effectiveness analysis to assess the effects of PBF on maternal and child health. Two districts implementing PBF and two following standard care were selected for the study. Both groups of selected districts share common grounds before initiating PBF in the selected group. The provider perspective costing approach was used in the study. Data at the district level were gathered retrospectively for the period of July 2018 to June 2021. Data from health service statistics were transformed to population level coverages and the Lives Saved Tool method used to compute the number of lives saved. Additionally for purpose of comparison, lives saved were translated into discounted quality-adjusted life years.

RESULTS

The number of lives saved under PBF was 261, whereas number of lives saved under standard care was 194. The identified incremental cost per capita due to PBF was $1.8 while total costs of delivering service at PBF district was 8,816,370 USD per million population per year while the standard care costs 9,780,920 USD per million population per year. QALYs obtained under PBF and standard care were 6,118 and 4,526 per million population per year, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The conclusion made from this analysis is that, implementing PBF is cost-saving in Ethiopia compared to the standard care.

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Due to lack of district-level survey-based data, such as prevalence and effects on maternal and child health, national-level estimates were used into the LiST tool.There may be some central-level PBF start-up costs that were not captured, which may have spillover effects on the existing health system performance that this study has not considered.There may be health statistics data accuracy differences between the PBF and non-PBF districts. The researchers considered using data from records as reported by both groups of districts.

Investigation of Factors Influencing Infant Mortality at Greater Accra Regional Hospital, Ghana

Background

Annually, 5.4 million children under five face mortality, with 2.5 million deaths in the first month, 1.6 million between one and eleven months, and 1.3 million aged one to four. Despite global strides, sub-Saharan Africa, including Ghana, grapples with persistent high child mortality. This study employs statistical methods to pinpoint factors driving under-five mortality in the Greater Accra Regional Hospital.

Methods

The data was acquired from Greater Accra Regional Hospital, Ghana, spanning January to December 2020. The data comprised all under-five deaths recorded in the hospital in 2020. The statistical tools employed were the chi-square test of association and the multinomial logistic regression model.

Results

In 2020, there were 238 cases of under-five mortality recorded in the hospital, with males constituting the majority (55%). About 85% of these cases occurred within the first month of birth, primarily attributed to respiratory distress, prematurity, and sepsis. Notably, meconium aspiration was the least common among grouped diagnoses. The test of association and multinomial logistic model emphasised the child's age, birth type, and weight at birth as significant factors influencing child mortality. Conversely, attributes like sex, marital status, and mother's age displayed no notable association with the diagnosis of death.

Conclusion

The study on child mortality at the Greater Accra Regional Hospital unveils key factors shaping child health outcomes, emphasising the role of age, birth type, and weight. While specific demographics show no significant association, identified predictors are vital for targeted interventions. Proposed strategies encompass education programs, improved care, birthing practices, and data-driven policies.

Zero-inflated Poisson regression analysis of factors associated with under-five mortality in Ethiopia using 2019 Ethiopian mini demographic and health survey data

BACKGROUND

Remarkable reduction in global under-five mortality has been seen over the past two decades. However, Ethiopia is among the five countries which account for about half (49%) of all under-five mortality worldwide. This study aimed at identifying factors associated with under-five children mortality in Ethiopia using the 2019 Ethiopia mini demography and health survey data.

METHODS

The most recent national representative demography and health survey data of Ethiopia, 2019 Ethiopia mini demography and health survey data, were used for this study. Count data regression models were applied to identify the factors associated with under-five children mortality. Statistical significance was declared at P-value less than 0.05.

RESULTS

Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model was found to be the best model compared to other count regression models based on models comparison Criteria. The ZIP model revealed that decreased risk of under-five mortality was associated with mothers aged 25-34 years, unmarried mothers, mothers delivered in health facility, mothers used Pill/IUD, mothers who had larger number of children at home whereas increased risk of under-five mortality was associated with older mothers at their first births, mothers from rural areas, mothers travel for 1-30 min and >30 min to get drinking water, mothers used charcoal and wood, children with higher birth order and multiple births.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, place of residence, region, place of delivery, religion, age of mother, mother's age at first birth, marital status, birth order, birth type, current contraceptive type used, type of cooking fuel, time to get drinking water, and number of children at home were statistically significant factors associated with under-five mortality in Ethiopia. Thus, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health and other concerned bodies are recommended to encourage mothers to deliver at health institutions, give awareness for mothers to use Pill/IUD contraceptive type, and facilitate rural areas to have electricity and drinking water near to homes so as to minimize the under-five mortality to achieve the sustainable development goal.

Socio-demographic and environmental determinants of under-five child mortality in Ethiopia: using Ethiopian demographic and Health 2019 survey

BACKGROUND

The under-five mortality rate is a reliable indicator of a country's general level of development and the wellbeing of its children. Life expectancy is a good indicator of a population's standard of living.

OBJECTIVES

To identify Socio-demographic and Environmental determinants of under-five child mortality in Ethiopia.

METHODS

A national representative cross sectional study and a quantitative study were conducted among 5753 households selected based on 2019 Mini-Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS-2019) data. The analysis was done using STATA version 14 statistical software. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used. To assess the determinants of under-five child mortality in multivariate analysis, p values less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant, and odds ratios with 95% CI (confidence interval) were used.

RESULTS

A total of 5,753 children were included in the study. Sex of the head of the household being female (AOR = 2:350, 95% CI: 1.310, 4.215), the U5CM for being their mother were currently married (AOR = 2:094, 95% CI: 1.076, 4.072), The odds of U5CM was less by 80% (AOR = 1.797, 95% CI: 1.159-2.782) with the number of under-five children at the household born 2-4th order as compared to those children born on the first order. For the mothers visit anti natal care four and above visit (AOR = 1:803, 95% CI: 1.032, 3.149), for the way of delivery (AOR = 0:478, 95% CI: 0.233, 0.982).

CONCLUSION

Multivariate logistic analysis reflected that way of delivery, mothers had being currently marred, sex of the head of the household and number of antenatal care visit were found to be significant predictors of under-five child mortality. So, government policy, nongovernmental organizations, and all concerned bodies should be focused on the major determinants of under-five child mortality and put in a lot more effort to reduce under-five child mortality.

Geographic variation and factors associated with under-five mortality in Ethiopia. A spatial and multilevel analysis of Ethiopian mini demographic and health survey 2019

BACKGROUND

The distribution of under-five mortality (U5M) worldwide is uneven and the burden is higher in Sub-Saharan African countries, which account for more than 53% of the global under-five mortality. In Ethiopia, though U5M decreased substantially between 1990 and 2019, it remains excessively high and unevenly distributed. Therefore, this study aimed to assess geographic variation and factors associated with under-five mortality (U5M) in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We sourced data from the most recent nationally representative 2019 Ethiopian Mini-Demographic and Health Survey for this study. A sample size of 5,695 total births was considered. Descriptive, analytical analysis and spatial analysis were conducted using STATA version 16. Both multilevel and spatial analyses were employed to ascertain the factors associated with U5M in Ethiopia.

RESULTS

The U5M was 5.9% with a 95% CI 5.4% to 6.6%. Based on the multivariable multilevel logistic regression model results, the following characteristics were associated with under-five mortality: family size (AOR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.84,0.99), number of under-five children in the family (AOR = 0.17, 95% CI: 0.14, 0.21), multiple birth (AOR = 14.4, 95% CI: 8.5, 24.3), children who were breastfed for less than 6 months (AOR = 5.04, 95% CI: 3.81, 6.67), people whose main roof is palm (AOR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.34, 0.96), under-five children who are the sixth or more child to be born (AOR = 2.46, 95% CI: 1.49, 4.06), institutional delivery (AOR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.41, 0.81), resident of Somali and Afar region (AOR = 3.46, 95% CI: 1.58, 7.55) and (AOR = 2.54, 95% CI: 1.10, 5.85), respectively. Spatial analysis revealed that hot spot areas of under-five mortality were located in the Dire Dawa and Somali regions.

CONCLUSION

Under-five mortality in Ethiopia is high and unacceptable when compared to the 2030 sustainable development target, which aims for 25 per 1000 live births. Breastfeeding for less than 6 months, twin births, institutional delivery and high-risk areas of under-five mortality (Somali and Dire Dawa) are modifiable risk factors. Therefore, maternal and community education on the advantages of breastfeeding and institutional delivery is highly recommended. Women who deliver twins should be given special attention. An effective strategy should be designed for intervention in under-five mortality hot spot areas such as Somali and Dire Dawa.

Risk factors of mortality among children under age five in Awi Zone, northwest Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Globally, under-five mortality rates have dropped, but in Ethiopia, the under-five mortality rate is still high. In Amhara region, the death of children under the age of five is still a public health problem. This study assessed the risk factors of mortality among children under age five in Awi Zone.

METHOD

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from December 1, 2020, up to April 30, 2021. Data entry and analysis were conducted using SPSS version 26 and Stata version 16, respectively. A zero-inflated Poisson regression model was fitted to identify the risk factors of under-five mortality.

RESULT

Out of the 1,340 mothers in the Awi zone, 11.9% of women lost at least one child. Single births (IRR = 0.598, 95% CI: 0.395, 0.906), fathers whose level of education is secondary or above(IRR = 0.223, 95% CI: 0.064, 0.782), mothers who completed their secondary and above education level(IRR = 0.116, 95% CI: 0.014, 0.971), mothers who have birth interval greater than 24 months (IRR = 0.619,95% CI: 0.417, 0.917), 8 and above family size the households (IRR = 0.543, 95% CI: 0.302, 0.976), 31 and above mother age groups (IRR = 0.296, 95% CI: 0.093, 0.943), medium households of mothers (IRR = 0.540, 95% CI: 0.316, 0.920), working mothers (IRR = 1.691, 95% CI: 1.040, 2.748) and mothers who had not antenatal visits during pregnancy (IRR = 2.060, 95% CI: 1.259, 3.371) were significant factors of under-five mortality.

CONCLUSION

Mother's age group, preceding birth interval, family size, wealth index, duration of pregnancy, antenatal visits during pregnancy, types of birth, mother's education level, husband's education level, and place of delivery were significant factors of under-five mortality in Awi zone. So, Awi zone public health institute, Awi zone children's and youth office, and other relevant bodies should work to reduce under-five mortality by focusing on child mortality issues.

Risk factors of under-five mortality in Ethiopia using count data regression models, 2021

Background

Despite the global reduction in under-five mortality, still many children die before their fifth birthday in Ethiopia. The main aim of this study was to identify determinants of under-five mortality using count data regression models based on 2019 Ethiopia mini demography and health survey data.

Methods

The data source for this study was the 2019 Ethiopia mini demography and health survey data. Various count data regression models were applied to identify the determinants of under-five mortality.

Results

A total of 5,535 mothers with children aged 0–59 months were included in the study. Of the total, 1,277 (23.07%) women had lost at least one child by death before celebrating fifth birthday. Zero-Inflated Poisson model was found to be the best model, and it revealed that mother's age, marital status, mother's age at 1st birth, place of delivery, current contraceptive type used, type of cooking fuel, residence, region, religion, time to get drinking water, number of children at home, birth order, and birth type were significant factors that determine U5 mortality in Ethiopia.

Mothers aged 15–24 years (IRR = 1.24, p = 0.007) and above 24 years (IRR = 1.66, p = 0.000) at their 1st births, mothers from rural area (IRR = 1.27, p = 0.000), mothers traveled for 1–30 min (IRR = 1.62, p = 0.000) and >30 min (IRR = 1.82, p = 0.000) to get drinking water, mothers used charcoal (IRR = 1.86, p = 0.009) and wood (IRR = 1.64, p = 0.033), children with birth order of 2nd-3rd (IRR = 3.91, p = 0.000), 4th -5th (IRR = 13.14, p = 0.000), 5th and above (IRR = 38.17, p = 0.000), and multiple born children (IRR = 1.5, p = 0.000) had higher risk of under-five mortality while mothers aged 25–34 years (IRR = 0.73, p = 0.000), unmarried mothers (IRR = 0.68, p = 0.004), mothers delivered in public health sectors (IRR = 0.59, p = 0.000), mothers used Pill/IUD (IRR = 0.64, p = 0.018), mothers who had 3 to 5 (IRR = 0.51, p = 0.000) and more than 5 (IRR = 0.27, p = 0.000) children at home had lower risk of under-five mortality.

Conclusions

Mothers should be encouraged to deliver at health institutions. Mothers also should be given awareness to use Pill/IUD contraceptive type. Moreover, facilitating rural areas to get electricity and drinking water near to homes helps to reduce the burden of U5M and to be in line with sustainable development goal.

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Our study was an attempt to identify the risk factors for under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

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We used 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and health Survey data.

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Analyses were done using Statistical sofwares R, Stata, and SPSS.

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Count Data Regression Models were employed to identify the risk factors of under-five mortality.

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The best model that fits the data well was selected using selection criterion like AIC, BIC.

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Zero-Inflated Poisson model was found to fit the data well.

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The study found that mother's age, marital status of mother, age of mother's at first birth, place of delivery, place of residence, time to get drinking water, number of children at home, birth order, type of birth were statistically significant determinants for under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

Factors associated with post-neonatal mortality in Ethiopia: Using the 2019 Ethiopia mini demographic and health survey

Background

Post-neonatal mortality is the number of deaths of infants aged 28 days through 11 months and is expressed as post-neonatal deaths per 1000 live births per year. This study aimed to identify the factors that influence post-neonatal death using the 2019 Ethiopia mini demographic and health survey (EMDHS2019).

Methods

The study included 2126 post neonates born from mothers who had been interviewed about births in the five years before the survey. The survey gathering period was carried out from March 21, 2019, to June 28, 2019. The data were first analyzed with a chi-square test of association, and then relevant factors were evaluated with binary logistic regression models and the results were interpreted using adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and confidence interval(CI) of parameters.

Results

The prevalence of post neonatal death was 16% (95% CI: 15.46, 17.78). The study also showed that not vaccinated post-neonates (AOR = 2.325, 95% CI: 1.784, 3.029), mothers who were not receiving any tetanus injection (AOR = 2.891, 95% CI: 2.254, 3.708), mothers age group 15-24(AOR = 1.836, 95% CI: 1.168, 2.886), Afar (AOR = 2.868, 95% CI: 1.264, 6.506), Somali(AOR = 2.273, 95% CI: 1.029, 5.020), Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region(SNNP) (AOR = 2.619, 95% CI: 1.096, 6.257), 2–4 birth orders (AOR = 1.936, 95% CI: 1.225, 3.060), not attend antenatal care(ANC) visit (AOR = 6.491, 95% CI: 3.928, 10.726), and preceding birth interval less than 24 months (AOR = 1.755, 95% CI: 1.363,2.261) statistically associated with a higher risk of post neonatal death. Although not given anything other than breast milk (AOR = 0.604, 95% CI 0.462, 0.789), urban residents (AOR = 0.545, 95% CI: 0.338, 0.877), single births (AOR = 0.150, 95% CI: 0.096, 0.234), less than 3 children in a family (AOR = 0.665, 95% CI 0.470, 0.939) and the head of the male household (AOR = 0.442, 95% CI: 0.270, 0.724) were statistically associated with a lower risk of post-neonatal mortality.

Conclusions

It is highly suggested that maternal and child health care services (including antenatal care visits, postnatal care visits, and immunization) be strengthened and monitored during the early stages of infancy. Mothers from Somali, Afar, and SNNP regions, as well as multiple births, rural residents, and those giving birth to a child with a birth gap of fewer than 24 months, demand special care.

Effect of health extension service on under-five child mortality and determinants of under-five child mortality in Derra district, Oromia regional state, Ethiopia: A cross-sectional study

Objectives

Under-five child mortality is the highest in Ethiopia even though it decreased steadily in the last two decades. Hence, this study aimed to identify the risk factors and effects of Health Extension Service on under-five child mortality per mother in Derra district, Ethiopia.

Methods

The study used a three-stage sampling technique and a random sample of 446 mothers. Cross-sectional data were collected using a structured interview and analyzed using descriptive and inferential (propensity score and Poisson regression) analysis.

Results

One-fourth (23.5%) of mothers experienced at least one under-five child mortality in the last 13 years and the propensity score analysis also indicated that utilizing and model in the Health Extension program reduced under-five child mortality per mother by 29.84% and 15.71%, respectively. The Poisson regression model identified that kebeles, not utilized health extension program (incidence rate ratio 2.25, 95% confidence interval (1.33, 3.85)), not model in health extension program (incidence rate ratio 1.79, 95% confidence interval (1.07, 3.18)), primary educational level (incidence rate ratio 0.14, 95% confidence interval (0.18, 0.91)), mother aged at first birth less than 20 years (incidence rate ratio 1.82, 95% confidence interval (1.90, 3.05)), source of drinking water not pipped (incidence rate ratio 2.36, 95% confidence interval (1.20, 3.18)), and child delivered at home (incidence rate ratio 2.48, 95% confidence interval (1.26, 4.8)) significantly influence under-five child mortality per mother at 5% level of significance.

Conclusion

Health extension service utilization reduced under-five child mortality per mother, and education level, source of drinking water, place of child delivery, and place of residence (kebele) were significant risk factors for under-five child mortality per mother. The health sectors and district health offices should work on health extension program to increase the community awareness of basic preventive and promotive health services and minimize risk factors of under-five child mortality.

Uncertainties in the path to 2030: Increasing trends of under-five mortality in the aftermath of Millennium Development Goal in Eastern Ethiopia

Background

Although Ethiopia was applauded for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target of reducing child mortality, whether the gains sustained beyond the MDG era was rarely studied. In this study, we reported the trends and determinants of under-five mortality (U5M) from 2015 to 2020 in a population based cohort under the Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), eastern Ethiopia.

Methods

We followed pregnant women and their pregnancy outcomes from 2015 to 2020. Each year, data related to death and live births among the follow up population was retrieved. Automated verbal autopsy (InterVA-4) was used to assign the cause of death and Stata 14 was used for analysis. U5M rate was calculated as death among under five children divided by all live births during the study period and described per 1000 live births along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI). A multivariable Cox proportional regression model was used to identify determinant of U5M using adjusted hazard ratio (AHR). Finally, P value <0.05 was considered for declaring statistically significant association.

Results

From January 2015 to December 2020, a total of 28 870 live births were registered under the Kersa HDSS, of whom 1335 died before their fifth birthday. The overall U5M rate was 46.3 per 1000 live births (95% confidence interval (CI) = 43.79-48.79), with significant increase from 27.9 in 2015 to 54.7 in 2020 (P < 0.041). Diarrheal diseases, acute respiratory tract infection including pneumonia, meningitis and encephalitis, and HIV related deaths were the leading causes of U5M. The hazard of death was higher among children born to poor household (AHR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.27-1.81), rural residents (AHR = 6.0; 95% CI = 3.65-9.91), born to adolescent mothers (AHR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.02-1.95), whose mother didn’t receive antenatal care (AHR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.21-1.69), were born preterm (AHR = 14.1; 95% CI = 9.96-19.89) and had low birth-weight (AHR = 1.74; 95% CI = 1.39-2.18).

Conclusion

We found high level of U5M rate with an increasing trend in the aftermath of the praised MDG4 achievement. Achieving the ambitious U5M of 25 per 1000 live births by 2030 requires addressing diarrheal disease, and respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS. Reasons behind the persistent increase over the study period require further inquiry.