Determinants of behaviors influencing implementation of maternal and perinatal death surveillance and response in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review of qualitative studies

BACKGROUND

Maternal and Perinatal Death Surveillance and Review (MPDSR) can reduce mortality but its implementation is often suboptimal, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

OBJECTIVES

To understand the determinants of behaviors influencing implementation of MPDSR in LMICs (through a systematic review of qualitative studies), in order to plan an intervention to improve its implementation.

SEARCH STRATEGY

Terms for maternal or perinatal death reviews and qualitative studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Qualitative studies regarding implementation of MPDSR in LMICs.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We coded the included studies using the Theoretical Domains Framework and COM-B model of behavior change (Capability, Opportunity, Motivation). We developed guiding principles for interventions to improve implementation of MPDSR.

MAIN RESULTS

Fifty-nine studies met our inclusion criteria. Capabilities required to conduct MPDSR (knowledge and technical/leadership skills) increase cumulatively from community to health facility and leadership levels. Physical and social opportunities depend on adequate data, human and financial resources, and a blame-free environment. All stakeholders were motivated to avoid negative consequences (blame, litigation, disciplinary action).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of MPDSR could be improved by (1) introducing structural changes to reduce negative consequences, (2) strengthening data collection tools and information systems, (3) mobilizing adequate resources, and (4) building capabilities of all stakeholders.

Approaches to improve and adapt maternal mortality estimations in low- and middle-income countries: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

In the absence of robust vital registration systems, many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rely on national surveys or routine surveillance systems to estimate the maternal mortality ratio (MMR). Although the importance of MMR estimates in ending preventable maternal deaths is acknowledged, there is limited research on how different approaches are used and adapted, and how these adaptations function.

OBJECTIVES

To assess methods for estimating maternal mortality in LMICs and the rationale for these modifications.

SEARCH STRATEGY

A literature search with the terms "maternal death", "surveys" and "low- and middle-income countries" was performed in Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL, APA PsycINFO, ERIC, and IBSS from January 2013 to March 17, 2023.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies were eligible if their main focus was to compare, adapt, or assess methods to estimate maternal mortality in LMICs.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Titles and abstracts were screened using Rayyan. Relevant articles were independently reviewed by two reviewers against inclusion criteria. Data were extracted on mortality measurement methods, their context, and results.

MAIN RESULTS

Nineteen studies were included, focusing on data completeness, subnational estimates, and community involvement. Routinely generated MMR estimates are more complete when multiple data sources are triangulated, including data from public and private health facilities, the community, and local authorities (e.g. vital registration, police reports). For subnational estimates, existing (e.g. the sisterhood method and reproductive-age mortality surveys [RAMOS]) and adapted methods (e.g. RAMOS 4 + 2 and Pictorial Sisterhood Method) provided reliable confidence intervals. Community engagement in data collection increased community awareness of maternal deaths, provided local ownership, and was expected to reduce implementation costs. However, most studies did not include a cost-effectiveness analysis.

CONCLUSION

Household surveys with community involvement and RAMOS can be used to increase data validity, improve local awareness of maternal mortality estimates, and reduce costs in LMICs.

Barriers to proper maternal referral system in selected health facilities in Eastern Ethiopia: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Appropriate maternal referral system plays an essential role in curbing maternal mortality. Although the occurrence of obstetric complications is often unpredictable, addressing bottlenecks of the referral system is crucial to facilitate the women to have access to timely lifesaving interventions. Nonetheless, little is known about the barriers to maternal referral system in the eastern Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the barriers to maternal referral system at selected referral hospitals in eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

Key informant interviews and in-depth interviews were conducted among purposively selected respondents who had a role in maternal referral processes. A total of 12 key informants that comprised of liaison officers, healthcare providers and three in-depth interviews with referred women were conducted. Semi-structured interview guide was developed and used to facilitate the interviews. All the interviews were tape recorded, complemented by note taking. Then audio recorded interviews were transcribed as per verbatim and imported to NVivo for coding and merging. The data were thematically synthesized.

RESULTS

The study identified a range of barriers that affect the maternal referral system in Eastern Ethiopia. The main barriers are grouped into three domains, such as: communication, transportation, and healthcare system. The most commonly reported barriers were lack of pre-referral communication and feedback, using informal communication, incomplete referral forms, poor ambulance service including misuse of ambulances, lack of skilled healthcare escort and lack of medical equipment at emergency, unnecessary self-referrals, poor referral skills and limited number of health professions.

CONCLUSIONS

The maternal referral system is overwhelmingly affected by lack of skill, logistics (referral form), misuse of available ambulance, poor communication, and limited seeking of feedback. Regular consultative meeting with relevant stakeholders and uptake of feedback are crucial to improve referral communication, proper use of ambulance and building capacity of health workforce about referral are essential to improve maternal referral system.

Characteristics and outcomes of pregnant women hospitalized with severe maternal outcomes in eastern Ethiopia: Results from the Ethiopian Obstetric Surveillance System study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to identify facility-based incidence of severe obstetric complications through a newly established obstetric surveillance system in eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

Monthly registration of obstetric hemorrhage, eclampsia, uterine rupture, severe anemia and sepsis was introduced in 13 maternity units in eastern Ethiopia. At each hospital, a designated clinician reported details of women admitted during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy from April 01, 2021 to March 31, 2022 developing any of these conditions. Detailed data on sociodemographic characteristics, obstetric complications and status at discharge were collected by trained research assistants.

RESULTS

Among 38 782 maternities during the study period, 2043 (5.3%) women had any of the five conditions. Seventy women died, representing a case fatality rate of 3.4%. The three leading reasons for admission were obstetric hemorrhage (972; 47.6%), severe anemia (727; 35.6%), and eclampsia (438; 21.4%). The majority of the maternal deaths were from obstetric hemorrhage (27/70; 38.6%) followed by eclampsia (17/70; 24.3%).

CONCLUSION

Obstetric hemorrhage, severe anemia and eclampsia were the leading causes of severe obstetric complications in eastern Ethiopia. Almost one in 29 women admitted with obstetric complications died. Audit of quality of care is indicated to design tailored interventions to improve maternal survival and obstetric complications.

Predictors of time to death among preterm neonates admitted to neonatal intensive care units at public hospitals in southern Ethiopia: A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although the survival of preterm neonates has improved, thanks to advanced and specialized neonatal intensive care, it remains the main reason for neonatal admission, death, and risk of lifelong complication. In this study, we assessed time to death and its predictors among preterm neonates admitted to neonatal intensive care units (NICU) at public hospitals in southern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A hospital based retrospective cohort was conducted among preterm neonates admitted to NICU at public hospitals in west Guji and Borena zones, Oromia National Regional State, southern Ethiopia. Simple random sampling technique was used to select records of preterm neonates admitted to both major hospitals in the study area. Data on neonatal condition, obstetric information, and status at discharge were collected from admission to discharge by trained research assistant through review of their medical records. Kaplan Meir curve and Log rank test were used to estimate the survival time and compare survival curves between variables. Cox-Proportional Hazards model was used to identify significant predictors of time to death at p<0.05.

RESULT

Of 510 neonates enrolled, 130(25.5%; 95% CI: 22-29) neonates died at discharge or 28days. The median survival time was 18 days with an interquartile range of (IQR = 6, 24). The overall incidence of neonatal mortality was 47.7 (95% CI: 40.2-56.7) per 1000 neonatal days. In the multivariable cox-proportional hazard analysis, lack of antenatal care (AHR: 7.1; 95%CI: 4-12.65), primipara (AHR: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.16-4.43), pregnancy complications (AHR: 3.4; 95% CI: 1.94-6.0), resuscitation at birth (AHR: 2.1, 95% CI: 0.28-0.77) and not receiving Kangaroo mother care (AHR: 9.3, 95% CI: 4.36-19.9) were predictors of preterm neonatal death.

CONCLUSION

Despite admission to NICU for advanced care and follow up, mortality of preterm neonates was found to be high in the study settings. Addressing major intrapartum complications is required to improve survival of neonates admitted to NICU.

The prevalence of infertility and factors associated with infertility in Ethiopia: Analysis of Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS)

BACKGROUND

Despite having a high fertility rate, low-resource countries are also home to couples with infertility problems. Although many couples are suffering from the psychological impacts of infertility, its level and determinants are not adequately known. The main objective of this study is to assess the prevalence and factors associated with infertility among couples in Ethiopia using the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data.

METHOD

The study employed a cross-sectional study design extracting variables from the 2016 EDHS. The study included all married or cohabitating women aged 15 to 49 years in the Couples Recode (CR) file data set. Weighted samples of 6141 respondents were analyzed. We used Stata 14 software for analyzing the data. The association of selected independent variables with primary, secondary, and total infertility was analyzed using a logistic regression model. We presented the results using an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) and a p-value <0.05 as a cut-off point for declaring statistical significance.

RESULTS

The prevalence of infertility in the past 12 months was 24.2% (95% CI: 23.1-25.3%), of which the majority (90.7%) was secondary infertility. Greater than 35 years of age (AOR = 2.45, 95% CI (1.58-3.79)), rural residence (AOR = 1.06, 95% CI (1.01-1.39)), smoking (AOR = 2.29, 95% CI (1.39-3.77)), and <18.5 Body Mass Index (BMI) (AOR = 1.71, 95% CI (1.43-2.04)) were significantly associated with infertility. Conversely, infertility was less likely among women with formal education and better wealth index. Primary infertility was significantly higher among women whose partners drink alcohol (AOR = 1.55; 95% CI 1.06-2.28)) and chew khat (AOR = 1.62; 95% CI (1.12-2.36)). Secondary infertility was significantly higher among women with <18.5 BMI (AOR = 1.59, 95% CI (1.37-1.84)), >30 BMI (AOR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.01-2.35)), and <15 years of age at first birth (AOR = 1.40; 95% CI 1.15-1.69)).

CONCLUSION

More than one in five couples in Ethiopia has an infertility problem. Both male and female-related factors are associated with infertility. Primary infertility was significantly higher among women whose partner chews khat and drinks alcohol. Secondary infertility was significantly associated with being underweight, obese, smoking, and young age at first birth. Hence, taking action on preventable factors is the most critical treatment approach and will improve the health status of the couples in other ways.

Knowledge of lactation amenorrhea method among postpartum women in Ethiopia: a facility-based cross-sectional study

While the importance of knowledge about contraceptives in improving their utilization and thereby reducing the risk of unintended pregnancies is well documented, there are limited studies documented about the Lactational Amenorrhea Method (LAM). Thus, understanding the knowledge of postpartum mothers about LAM is essential for designing tailored interventions. This study assessed the level of knowledge about LAM and its associated factors among postpartum mothers in Ethiopia. A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 3148 randomly selected postpartum participants. The study utilized multistage sampling approach in hospitals located across five regions and one city administration in Ethiopia. Data were collected using face-to-face interviews at discharge. A participant was categorized as having knowledge of LAM if she correctly answered the three LAM criteria: amenorrhea, the first 6 months, and exclusive breast feeding. A binary logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with knowledge of LAM. Variables with p < 0.25 in the binary logistic regression were included in the multiple logistic regression. Then, associations were described using the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) along with the 95% confidence interval (CI), and statistical significance was declared at p < 0.05. Only four in 10 participants (40.6%; 95% CI 38.9-42.3) had knowledge of LAM. Participants who attended college or above educational level (AOR = 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.8), those with parity of two (AOR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.6-3.6) or more than two (AOR = 2.4; 95% CI 1.5-4.0), those who expressed a desire for further fertility (AOR = 1.3; 95% CI 1.1-1.5), individuals who received counselling on LAM (AOR = 3.0; 95% CI 2.6-3.7), and those who gave birth in hospital (AOR = 2.6; 95% CI 1.4-2.6) had higher odds of knowledge about LAM, compared to their counter parts. In contrary, participants resided far away from health facilities had 30% lower odd of knowledge about LAM compared to those resided near the health facilities (AOR = 0.70; 95% CI 0.6-0.8). The proportion of participants who had knowledge of LAM was low. Strengthening counseling about LAM during antenatal care and delivery with due attention to women with limited access to health facilities should be considered for increasing their level of knowledge on LAM.

The Cost of Maternal Complications and Its Associated Factors Among Mothers Attending Public Hospitals in Harari Region and Dire Dawa City Administration, Eastern Ethiopia: An Institution-Based Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Pregnant women face high costs for health-care services despite being advertised as free. These costs include non-medical expenses, lost productivity, difficulties caring for family members, and long-term financial impact from complications. Limited research has been done on the cost burden of maternal services and complications, despite numerous studies on maternal health service provision. This is notable considering the government's claim of providing free maternal health-care services.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted in July (1-30) 2022 among 425 randomly selected mothers in Harari and Dire Dawa City, Eastern Ethiopia. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and medical record reviews. The collected data was entered into Epi-Data version 3.02 and analyzed using STATA version 14.0 after data cleaning. Descriptive statistics and linear regression analysis were used to examine the data, ensuring assumptions of linearity, independence, homoscedasticity, and normality were met. The correlation coefficient was used to assess the strength of the association.

Results

The median cost of maternal complications was around 4250 ETB (81.3 USD; IQR = 2900-5833.3), factors that predicted cost were monthly family income of ≥3001 birr (β=1.13; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.26), distance from hospital (β=0.73; 95% CI = 0.64-0.83), being admitted for less than 4 days (β=0.60; 95% CI = 0.53-0.69), accompanied by relatives besides their husbands (β=1.93; 95% CI = 1.52-2.46), caesarian sections delivery (β=1.17; 95% CI = 1.04-1.31), and giving birth to a normal baby (β=0.86; 95% CI = 0.77-0.97).

Conclusion

Maternal complications incur significant costs, with factors such as family income, travel time, hospital stay, caregiver presence, mode of delivery, and neonatal outcome predicting these costs. The Ethiopian health system should address the additional expenses faced by mothers with complications and their caregivers.

Effectiveness of Lactational Amenorrhea Method in Ethiopia: A Multi-Center Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Although the lactational amenorrhea method (LAM) is one of the most commonly used contraception methods during the first six months of a woman's postpartum period, there has been little research on its effectiveness in general and particularly in Ethiopia. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of LAM and the experiences of Ethiopian women who used it.

Methods

This was a multi-center prospective cohort study of postpartum women from five Ethiopian regions and one city administration. All pregnant women who gave birth in these randomly selected hospitals and five health centers directly referring to the hospitals were invited to the study if they selected LAM and were followed monthly at home. Each month, trained researchers visited the woman at her home and collected information about breast feeding, the return of menses, the resumption of sex, the use of another contraceptive, and a pregnancy test using urine human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG). Women who reported starting new contraceptive methods, resumption of menses, starting complementary feeding, neonatal death, getting pregnant, or refusing were excluded from the cohort. The data were collected using ODK Collect and exported to Stata 14 for analysis.

Results

Among the 2162 women who selected LAM as a contraceptive, 2022 were enrolled in the cohort study, and 901 completed the follow-up. At the end of the sixth month, eight women got pregnant, corresponding to an effectiveness of 99.1%. More than half of the cohort were excluded from the follow-up for reasons of transitioning to other types of contraception, resumption of menses, or refusal to follow-up.

Conclusion

The effectiveness of LAM is high and should be recommended for postpartum women, with proper counseling provided. A study should be conducted to examine the effectiveness of breast feeding as a contraceptive beyond the Bellagio consensus.

Co-occurrence of iron, folate, and vitamin A deficiency among pregnant women in eastern Ethiopia: a community-based study

BACKGROUND

It is well known that the magnitude of undernutrition in Ethiopia is unacceptably high. The burden of co-occurrence of iron, folate, and vitamin A deficiency, on the other hand, has received less attention. Thus, in this study, we looked at the prevalence of iron, folate, and vitamin A deficiency in pregnant women in eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 397 pregnant women in Haramaya district, eastern Ethiopia. An interview-assisted questionnaire and blood serum were collected from pregnant women using standard techniques and shipped to an EPHI for micronutrient analysis. Factors associated with the co-occurrence of iron, folate, and vitamin A deficiency were identified using binary and multiple logistic regressions.

RESULTS

According to this study, 81.6% of the participants were deficient in at least one micronutrient, and 53.53.2% were deficient in two or more. Women who did not receive iron-folic acid supplementation (AOR = 2.44; 95% CI = 1.52-3.92), did not attend Antenatal care (ANC) follow up (AOR = 2.88; 95% CI = 1.81-4.61), and reported low consumption of diversified diet (AOR = 2.18 (95% CI = 1.35-3.51) had a higher risk of co-occurrence of iron, folate, and vitamin A deficiency.

CONCLUSION

This study found that more than half of pregnant women were in multiple micronutrients, indicating a major public health issue. In addition to the IFA supplementation programs that are already in place, there is a need for multiple micronutrient supplementation.

Establishing the Ethiopian Obstetric Surveillance System for Monitoring Maternal Outcomes in Eastern Ethiopia: A Pilot Study

BACKGROUND

Although the majority of maternal deaths and complications occur in low-resource settings, almost all existing strong registration and confidential enquiry systems are found in high-resource settings. We developed and piloted the Ethiopian Obstetric Surveillance System (EthOSS), based on the successful United Kingdom Obstetric Surveillance System (UKOSS) methodology, in 3 regions in Ethiopia to improve ongoing surveillance and tracking of maternal morbidities and deaths, as well as confidential enquiry, compared to the currently used maternal death surveillance and response program in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We launched the EthOSS monthly case notification system in 13 hospitals in eastern Ethiopia in April 2021. Study participants included women admitted to the hospitals from April to September 2021 with major adverse obstetric conditions during pregnancy, childbirth, or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy. Designated clinicians at the hospitals used a simple online system to report the number of cases and maternal deaths monthly to the EthOSS team. We present findings on the incidence and case fatality rates for adverse conditions included in the EthOSS.

RESULTS

Over the 6-month pilot period, 904 women with at least 1 EthOSS condition were included in the study, of whom 10 died (case fatality rate, 1.1%). Almost half (46.6%, 421/904) sustained major obstetric hemorrhage, 38.7% (350/904) severe anemia, 29.5% (267/904) eclampsia, 8.8% (80/904) sepsis, and 2.2% (20/904) uterine rupture. To enable care improvement alongside surveillance, the local committee received training on confidential enquiry into maternal deaths from internal and external experts.

CONCLUSIONS

In this facility-based project, data on severe adverse obstetric conditions were captured through voluntary reporting by clinicians. Further analysis is essential to assess the robustness of these data, and confidential enquiry into maternal deaths for specific cases is planned to investigate the appropriateness of care.

The association between HIV diagnosis disclosure and adherence to anti-retroviral therapy among adolescents living with HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Nine in ten of the world's 1.74 million adolescents living with human immunodeficiency virus (ALHIV) live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Suboptimal adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and poor viral suppression are important problems among adolescents. To guide intervention efforts in this regard, this review presented pooled estimates on the prevalence of adherence and how it is affected by disclosure of HIV status among ALHIV in Sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

A comprehensive search in major databases (Excerpta Medica database (EMBASE), PubMed, Ovid/MEDLINE, HINARI, and Google Scholar) with additional hand searches for grey literature was conducted to locate observational epidemiologic studies published in English up to November 12, 2022 with the following inclusion criteria: primary studies that reported disclosure of HIV status as an exposure variable, had positive adherence to ART as an outcome, and conducted among adolescents and children. The COVIDENCE software was used for a title/abstract screening, full-text screening, the JBI quality assessment checklist, and data extraction. Random effects model was used to pool estimates. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and subgroup analysis were also conducted by age groups and type of adherence measures used.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis combines the effect estimates from 12 primary studies with 4422 participants. The prevalence of good adherence to ART was 73% (95% CI (confidence interval): 56 to 87; I2 = 98.63%, P = <0.001), and it was higher among adolescents who were aware of their HIV status, 77% (95% CI: 56 to 92; I2 = 98.34%, P = <0.001). Overall, knowledge of HIV status was associated with increased odds of adherence (odds ratio (OR) = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.21 to 2.94; I2 = 79.8%, P = <0.001). This was further supported in a subgroup analysis by age (seven studies, pooled OR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.06 to 3.37; I2 = 81.3%, P = <0.0001) and whether primary studies controlled for confounding factors (six studies provided adjusted estimates, pooled OR = 2.61, 95% CI: 1.22 to 5.57; I2 = 88.1%, P = <0.001) confirmed this further.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis and systematic review revealed that knowledge of one's HIV status was associated with adherence to ART, particularly among adolescents. The findings underscored the importance of encouraging disclosure in order to enhance adherence among adolescents.

Food taboos among pregnant women and associated factors in eastern Ethiopia: A community-based cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

The main aim of this study was to assess food taboos and associated factors among pregnant women in eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected 422 pregnant women at Haramaya Demographic Surveillance System from Haramaya District, eastern Ethiopia. Data on sociodemographic conditions, the presence of food taboos, and perceived reasons were collected using the face-to-face interview method by trained data collectors through arranged home visits. Collected data were entered into EpiData 3.1 and exported to statistical package for social sciences version 23 for cleaning and analysis. Descriptive, binary, and multiple logistic regression analyses were carried out to determine the relationship between explanatory and outcome variables. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) at p value less than 0.05 was used to declare significant association.

RESULTS

Approximately half (48%, 95% CI: 43%, 52%) of the pregnant women reported the presence of pregnancy-related food taboos. Pregnant women who have heard about food taboos (AOR: 3.58; 95% CI: 1.89, 6.83), pregnant women had friends who avoided food (AOR: 1.91; 95% CI: 1.22, 2.99), women's monthly income ⩽840 ETB (AOR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.73), and pregnant women who had not attended formal education (AOR: 1.95; 95% CI: 1.18, 3.23) were more likely to report food taboos. The odds of pregnant women who had attended uptake of immunization services were less likely to have food taboos (AOR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.21, 0.58).

CONCLUSION

Pregnancy-related food taboos among pregnant women are unacceptably high. Therefore, awareness creation and nutritional counseling at health service delivery points are imperative actions for pregnant women to avoid food taboos norms. Further research should be done to understand the social and cultural ground of food taboos during pregnancy.

Beyond hemoglobin: uncovering iron deficiency and iron deficiency anemia using serum ferritin concentration among pregnant women in eastern Ethiopia: a community-based study

BACKGROUND

Although the high burden of anemia among pregnant women in low-resource settings like Ethiopia is well documented, evidence is scarce on the underlying causes using biochemical tests. Therefore, this study assessed the iron status and factors associated with iron deficiency (ID) using serum ferritin concentration among pregnant women in Haramaya district, eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected pregnant women in Haramaya district, eastern Ethiopia. The serum ferritin (SF) concentration was measured in the National Biochemical Laboratory of Ethiopia on a fully automated Cobas e411 (German, Japan Cobas 4000 analyzer series) immunoassay analyzer using the electro-chemiluminescence (ECL) method and standard procedures. A log-binomial regression analysis identified variables associated with iron deficiency, and defined as serum ferritin concentration < 15 μg/L (per the World Health Organization recommendation in developing countries). An adjusted risk ratio (aRR), and a 95% confidence interval (CI), were used to report associations. Finally, the p-value < 0.05 was the cut-off point for the significant association.

RESULTS

A total of 446 pregnant women with a mean age of 24.78 (+ 5.20) were included in the study. A total of 236 (52.91%; 95% CI: 48.16-57.63) had iron deficiency. The overall prevalence of anemia and iron deficiency anemia (IDA) was 45.96% (95% CI: 41.32-50.71) and 28.03% (95% CI: 21.27-32.44), respectively. The risk of iron deficiency was more likely among women with low dietary diversity (aRR = 1.36; 95% CI = 1.07-1.72) and those who skipped meals (aRR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.05-1.57), but less among women who had antenatal care (aRR = 0.73 (95% CI = 0.61-0.88).

CONCLUSION

More than half of the pregnant women in eastern Ethiopia had iron deficiency. Improving dietary diversity, meal frequency, and prenatal follow-up is essential to improve the high burden of ID and the adverse effect on pregnant women and the fetus. Moreover, a prospective study comparing maternal and perinatal outcomes among these spectra-iron depletion, ID, and IDA-is crucial for understanding their impact on maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity.

Prevalence of chronic kidney disease and associated factors among patients visiting renal unit of St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A cross-sectional study design

Objective:

This study aimed to assess the magnitude of chronic kidney disease among patients attending the renal unit of St. Paul’s Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Methods:

Institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 620 randomly selected patients who visited St. Paul’s Hospital Millennium Medical College renal unit from 1 January to 31 December, 2019. Data on sociodemographic characteristics, clinical conditions, behavioral risk factors, electrolytes, and renal function tests were extracted from patients’ medical records. To enter and analyze data, EpiData 3.1 and SPSS 22 were used, respectively. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to see the association between predictor variables and chronic kidney disease. Adjusted odds ratio at 95% confidence interval was used to describe significant association. A p-value <0.05 was considered to declare an association between chronic kidney disease and independent variables.

Results:

Of 620 patients, 139 (22.4%; 95% confidence interval: 19.2, 25.6) and 61 (9.8%; 95% confidence interval: 7.4, 12.3) had chronic kidney disease using cut-off value of 90 and 60 ml/min/1.73 m², respectively. Having urinary tract obstruction (adjusted odds ratio = 2.32; 95% confidence interval: 1.32, 4.06), hypertension (adjusted odds ratio = 4.06; 95% confidence interval: 2.50, 6.59), diabetes mellitus (adjusted odds ratio = 2.80; 95% confidence interval: 1.62, 4.85), cardiovascular disease (adjusted odds ratio = 2.54; 95% confidence interval: 1.60, 4.01), and age (adjusted odds ratio = 1.83; 95% confidence interval: 1.44, 3.57), family history of chronic kidney disease (adjusted odds ratio = 2.26; 95% confidence interval: 1.36, 3.75) were factors positively associated with having chronic kidney disease.

Conclusion:

Nearly, one out of five and one out of ten patients who visited the renal unit had chronic kidney disease using the two thresholds as a cut value. Patients with concomitant urinary tract obstruction, age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, and a family history of chronic kidney disease were more likely to develop chronic kidney disease. Regular screening for chronic kidney disease, optimal blood sugar, and blood pressure management should be practiced.

How applicable is geospatial analysis in maternal and neonatal health in sub-Saharan Africa? A systematic review

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world's highest maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality and has shown the slowest progress in reducing them. In addition, there is substantial inequality in terms of maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality in the region. Geospatial studies can help prioritize scarce resources by pinpointing priority areas for implementation. This systematic review was conducted to explore the application of geospatial analysis to maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality in SSA.

Methods

A systematic search of PubMed, SCOPUS, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases was performed. All observational and qualitative studies that reported on maternal or neonatal health outcomes were included if they used a spatial analysis technique and were conducted in a SSA country. After removing duplicates, two reviewers independently reviewed each study's abstract and full text for inclusion. Furthermore, the quality of the studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) critical appraisal checklists. Finally, due to the heterogeneity of studies, narrative synthesis was used to summarize the main findings, and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline was strictly followed to report the review results. A total of 56 studies were included in the review.

Results

We found that geospatial analysis was used to identify inequalities in maternal and neonatal morbidity, mortality, and health care utilization and to identify gaps in the availability and geographic accessibility of maternal health facilities. In addition, we identified a few studies that used geospatial analysis for modelling intervention areas. We also detected challenges and shortcomings, such as unrealistic assumptions used by geospatial models and a shortage of reliable, up-to-date, small-scale georeferenced data.

Conclusions

The use of geospatial analysis for maternal and neonatal health in SSA is still limited, and more detailed spatial data are required to exploit the potential of geospatial technologies fully.

Why mothers die: Analysis of verbal autopsy data from Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Eastern Ethiopia

Background

Despite registering tremendous improvement as part of the Millennium Development Goals, Ethiopia has still one of the highest numbers of maternal mortality. Although maternal mortality is one of the commonest indicators for comparison or measuring progress, its measurement remained a challenge. In a situation where, vital registration is not in place and only few women gave birth in facilities, alternative data sources from population-based surveys are essential to describe maternal deaths. In this paper, we reported estimates of maternal mortality and causes in a predominantly rural setting in eastern Ethiopia.

Methods

Data were used from the ongoing prospective open cohort of Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), located in eastern Ethiopia. At enrolment, detailed sociodemographic and household conditions were recorded for every member, followed by household visit every six months to identify any vital events: births, deaths, and migration. Whenever a death was reported, additional information about the deceased - age, sex, pregnancy status, and perceived cause of deaths - were collected through interview of the closest family member(s). Then, the probable cause of death was assigned using an automated verbal autopsy system (InterVA). In this paper, we included all deaths among women during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy. To describe the trends, we calculated annual maternal mortality ratio (MMR) along with their 95% Confidence Interval (CI).

Results

From 2008 to 2019, a total of 32 680 live births and 720 deaths among reproductive age women were registered. Of the 720 deaths, 158 (21.9%) were during pregnancy or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy, corresponding with an MMR of 484 per 100 000 live births. The three leading causes of deaths were pregnancy related sepsis, obstetric haemorrhage and anaemia of pregnancy. There was non-significant reduction in the MMR from 744 in 2008 to 665 in 2019, with three lowest ratios recorded in 2013 (172 per 100 000 live births), 2009 (280 per 100 000 live births) and 2016 (285 per 100 000 live births).

Conclusions

There was no significant decrement of MMR during the study period. Most deaths occurred at home from pregnancy related sepsis and haemorrhage implicating the unfinished agenda of ensuring skilled delivery and appropriate postnatal management.

Magnitude of neonatal near miss in public hospitals in Eastern Ethiopia: A cross-sectional study

Objectives:

Although neonatal near miss is an emerging concept and a tool for improving neonatal care, its magnitude and associated factors are less researched in Ethiopia. Thus, this study was aimed to uncover the magnitude of neonatal near miss and its associated factors in public hospitals in Eastern Ethiopia.

Methods:

A facility-based cross-sectional study was employed on a randomly selected 405 mother–neonate pairs. An interview using a structured questionnaire accompanied by review of medical records was used to collect data from the mothers and records of the neonates. Neonatal near miss was defined as having any of the pragmatic (gestational age < 33 weeks, birth weight < 1750 g, and fifth minutes Apgar score < 7) or management criteria. Crude and adjusted logistic regression analysis was done to identify associated factors and presented with adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval.

Results:

Of 401 mother–neonate pairs included in the study, 126 (31.4%, 95% confidence interval = [26.9, 36.2]) neonates had at least one neonatal near miss event at discharge. Neonatal near miss was more likely among neonates from referred women (adjusted odds ratio = 2.24, 95% confidence interval = [1.25, 4.03]), no antenatal care (adjusted odds ratio = 2.08, 95% confidence interval = [1.10, 3.93]), antepartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio = 4.29, 95% confidence interval = [2.16, 8.53]), premature rupture of membrane (adjusted odds ratio = 4.07, 95% confidence interval = [2.05, 8.07]), obstructed labor (adjusted odds ratio = 2.61, 95% confidence interval = [1.23, 5.52]), non-vertex presentation (adjusted odds ratio = 3.03, 95% confidence interval = [1.54, 5.95]), and primiparous (adjusted odd ratio = 2.67, 95% confidence interval = [1.49, 4.77]).

Conclusions:

In this study, we found that neonatal near miss is higher than previous findings in Ethiopia. Improving neonatal near miss requires promoting antenatal care, maternal referral system, and early identification and management of obstetric complications.

Factors associated with food consumption score among pregnant women in Eastern Ethiopia: a community-based study

INTRODUCTION

Although assessing the nutritional status of pregnant women is becoming a common research agenda, evidence on food consumption scores, particularly among rural residents, is limited. This study aimed to assess the level of food consumption score and associated factors among pregnant women in Haramaya district, eastern Ethiopia, 2021.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 448 pregnant women in Haramaya district, eastern Ethiopia. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews by trained research assistants, using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Food consumption score, a proxy measure for food security, was assessed through a seven-day dietary recall of consumption of food items. Each food item was given a score of 0-7 depending on the number of days it was consumed then grouped into food groups and summed up each food group. The pregnant women were labeled as "acceptable food consumption score" when they had a food composite score of > 42 during the reference period. Otherwise, they were defined as "unacceptable." A Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation was used to investigate the association of the independent variables with the food consumption score. An adjusted prevalence ratio with a 95% confidence interval was reported to show an association using a p value < 0.05.

RESULTS

The acceptable food consumption score among the study participants was 54.46% (95% CI 49-59%). The level of acceptable food consumption score was higher among respondents who were in the richest class (APR = 1.31; 95% CI 1.04-1.66), those who had ANC follow-up (APR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.40-2.27), those who had a favorable attitude toward dietary practice (APR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.12-1.52), and those who consumed high animal source foods (APR = 1.28; 95% CI 1.01-1.51). However, acceptable food consumption score was lower among women who were not owned agricultural land (APR = 0.84; 95% CI 0.72-0.99).

CONCLUSION

We found a low acceptable food consumption score among pregnant women in this predominantly rural setting. Nutritional counseling in pregnancy should address the importance of food diversity and consumption of animal source foods to improve nutrition in pregnancy. Our findings highlight the imperative requirement for policies and programs to support farmers who had no farmland to improve their overall food security and maximize their food consumption score. Assessing perinatal outcomes associated with food consumption score is essential for unraveling the spectrum of nutrition in pregnancy and beyond.

Uncertainties in the path to 2030: Increasing trends of under-five mortality in the aftermath of Millennium Development Goal in Eastern Ethiopia

Background

Although Ethiopia was applauded for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target of reducing child mortality, whether the gains sustained beyond the MDG era was rarely studied. In this study, we reported the trends and determinants of under-five mortality (U5M) from 2015 to 2020 in a population based cohort under the Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), eastern Ethiopia.

Methods

We followed pregnant women and their pregnancy outcomes from 2015 to 2020. Each year, data related to death and live births among the follow up population was retrieved. Automated verbal autopsy (InterVA-4) was used to assign the cause of death and Stata 14 was used for analysis. U5M rate was calculated as death among under five children divided by all live births during the study period and described per 1000 live births along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI). A multivariable Cox proportional regression model was used to identify determinant of U5M using adjusted hazard ratio (AHR). Finally, P value <0.05 was considered for declaring statistically significant association.

Results

From January 2015 to December 2020, a total of 28 870 live births were registered under the Kersa HDSS, of whom 1335 died before their fifth birthday. The overall U5M rate was 46.3 per 1000 live births (95% confidence interval (CI) = 43.79-48.79), with significant increase from 27.9 in 2015 to 54.7 in 2020 (P < 0.041). Diarrheal diseases, acute respiratory tract infection including pneumonia, meningitis and encephalitis, and HIV related deaths were the leading causes of U5M. The hazard of death was higher among children born to poor household (AHR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.27-1.81), rural residents (AHR = 6.0; 95% CI = 3.65-9.91), born to adolescent mothers (AHR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.02-1.95), whose mother didn’t receive antenatal care (AHR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.21-1.69), were born preterm (AHR = 14.1; 95% CI = 9.96-19.89) and had low birth-weight (AHR = 1.74; 95% CI = 1.39-2.18).

Conclusion

We found high level of U5M rate with an increasing trend in the aftermath of the praised MDG4 achievement. Achieving the ambitious U5M of 25 per 1000 live births by 2030 requires addressing diarrheal disease, and respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS. Reasons behind the persistent increase over the study period require further inquiry.

Prevalence and determinants of dietary practices among pregnant women in eastern Ethiopia

Introduction

Appropriate dietary practices in pregnancy are critical to meet the increased metabolic and physiological demands; however, information about dietary practices among pregnant women, particularly rural residents, is limited. The study aimed to assess the level of appropriate dietary practices and associated determinants among pregnant women in Haramaya District, eastern Ethiopia, 2021.

Methods

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 448 pregnant women in Haramaya District, Eastern Ethiopia. Data was collected through face-to-face interviews by trained research assistants, using a validated frequency questionnaire. The pregnant women were labeled as “appropriate dietary practice” when they consumed at least four meals daily, had a good food variety score, high dietary diversity score, and high consumption of animal source foods during the reference period. Otherwise, they were defined as “inappropriate.” A Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation was used to investigate the association of the independent variables with the dietary practice. An adjusted prevalence ratio with a 95% confidence interval was reported to show an association using a p-value < 0.05.

Results

The appropriate dietary practice among the study participants was 15.2% (95% CI = 12–18%). Of the respondents, 29.46, 37.5, and 24.7% had a high dietary diversity, high food variety score, and high consumption of animal source foods. The appropriate dietary practice was more prevalent among merchant women (APR = 2.07; 95% CI 1.07–4.02) and those whose husbands have at least a high school educational level (APR = 1.96; 95% CI 1.06–3.46). However, the prevalence of appropriate dietary practice was significantly lower among those who chewed khat (APR = 0.58; 95% CI 0.37–0.90) and among respondents who reported restriction of the intake of some foods (APR = 0.36; 95% CI 0.20–0.65).

Conclusion

We found sup-optimal appropriate dietary practice among pregnant women in this predominantly rural setting. Additionally, the lower appropriate dietary practice was observed among women who reported chewing khat and experienced restriction of dietary consumption during pregnancy. Therefore, nutrition policy programs and interventions aimed at encouraging maternal nutritional guidance and counseling are recommended.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40795-021-00494-4.

Trend and Determinants of Mortality Among Women of Reproductive Age: A Twelve-Year Open Cohort Study in Eastern Ethiopia

Background: With only less than a decade left till 2030, it is essential to research the burden and trends of women of reproductive age (WRA) mortality in order to design appropriate interventions toward achieving goal three of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), good health and well-being. For several low-income countries, such data are often lacking or sometimes extrapolated from non-representative facility-based studies. In this paper, we presented trends, causes, and determinants of mortality among reproductive-age women under follow-up for 12 years through the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) located in eastern Ethiopia.

Methods: We used 12 years of (2008 to 2019) open cohort data of women aged 15–49 living in Kersa HDSS in Eastern Ethiopia. In the HDSS, data on socio-demographic and basic household conditions are recorded for every household member at enrollment, and data on vital events such as births, deaths, and migration were collected and updated biannually as the event happened. Mortality was determined by automated verbal autopsy (InterVA) algorism. We assessed trends in women's reproductive age mortality and the associated determinants using crude and adjusted Cox regression models.

Results: In the 12-years cohort, we followed 74,790 women of reproductive age for 339,909.26 person-years-at-risk of observation (PYO), of whom 919 died. Overall, the standardized mortality rate was 270 per 100,000 PYO. There was a notable increase in mortality in the first 3 years (2009 to 2011) which then declined significantly (p = 0.0001) until 2019. Most of the deaths were caused by HIV/AIDS (27.88%) and pulmonary tuberculosis (10.62%). In the adjusted Cox regression analysis, the hazard of death was higher among rural residents (AHR, 2.03: 95% CI: 1.60–2.58), unemployed women (AHR, 1.50: 95% CI: 1.19–1.89), and women with no formal education (AHR, 1.24: 95% CI: 1.01–1.52).

Conclusion: The study showed a high number of women of reproductive age are still dying mainly due to causes for which preventable strategies are known and have been successfully implemented. The study identified that the main causes of death were related to HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, and there was a higher hazard of mortality among rural residents, unemployed women, and those with no formal education, who need effective implementation in achieving the SDG three.

Utilization of Obstetric Analgesia for Labor Pain Management and Associated Factors among Obstetric Care Providers in Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

In low-income countries, pain-free labor initiative is an emerging concept and still parturient undergoes through painful labor; this is not different in Ethiopia; despite the national direction to use analgesia for labor pain and strong demand from the women, evidence on utilization of obstetric analgesia for labor pain management in Ethiopia is scarce. The objective of this study was to assess level of obstetric analgesia utilization and associated factors among obstetric care providers in public hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institution-based cross-sectional study was used. All obstetric care providers working in labor and delivery units in public hospitals in Addis Ababa were included. The data were collected using a self-administered structured questionnaire. After checking for completeness, data were entered into Epi-data 3.1 and analyzed using SPSS 20. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regressions were used to identify factors associated with utilization of obstetric analgesia.

RESULT

Of 391 obstetric care providers included in the study, 143 (36.6%; 95% CI: 31.5-40.9%) reported providing labor analgesia. Having adequate knowledge (AOR 2.7; 95% CI: 1.37-5.23), ten and more years of work experience (AOR 4.3; 95% CI: 1.81-10.13), and availability of analgesics (AOR 3.3; 95% CI: 1.99-5.53) were significantly associated with providing labor analgesia.

CONCLUSION

Slightly more than 3 in 10 obstetric care providers reported providing labor analgesics to women. Training of providers and ensuring adequate supply of analgesics is required to make sure that women in labor would not suffer from labor pain.

Utilization of Immediate Postpartum Long Acting Reversible Contraceptives among Women Who Gave Birth in Public Health Facilities in Eastern Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study

OBJECTIVE

Although importance of postpartum family planning is essential and immediate postpartum insertion of long acting and reversible contraceptives (LARC) is recommended, evidence on its uptake and associated factors is limited in Ethiopia. This study was conducted to assess utilization of immediate postpartum LARC among women who gave birth in selected public health facilities in eastern Ethiopia.

METHOD

An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected women who gave birth in selected public health facilities in eastern Ethiopia from 10 March to 09 April 2020. At discharge, all eligible women who gave birth in the facilities were interviewed using a pretested structured questionnaire. Data were entered using EpiData 3.1 and analyzed using SPSS 24. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with utilization of immediate postpartum LARC. Adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with 95% confidence interval was used to report association, and significance was declared at p value < 0.05.

RESULTS

From a total of 546 women invited to the study, 530 (97.1%) participated in the study and 98 (18.5%; 95% CI: 15.1%, 22.0%) reported starting long acting reversible contraceptives. Women who reported discussing about contraceptives with partners (aOR = 6.69, 95% CI: 3.54, 12.61) and receiving postpartum counselling on contraceptives (aOR = 5.37, 95% CI: 3.00, 9.63) were more likely to using contraception. However, women who live >30-minute walking distance from the nearest health facility (aOR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.26, 0.85) and reported disrespect and abuse during childbirth (aOR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.40) were less likely to start LARC.

CONCLUSIONS

Almost one in five women delivering in public health facilities in eastern Ethiopia started using LARC. Provision of respectful maternity care including counselling on the importance of immediate postpartum family planning is essential for increasing its uptake.

Prevalence of premature rupture of membrane and its associated factors among pregnant women in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Premature rupture of the membrane is a serious public health problem, especially in low- and middle-income countries with significant maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. Despite its substantial contributions to feto-maternal complications, the burden of premature rupture of the membrane was not systematically analyzed in Ethiopia. Hence, this review aimed to identify the burden of premature rupture of the membrane and associated factors among pregnant women in Ethiopia.

Methods

PubMed/Medline, Scopus, and African journal online databases and Google Scholar were searched for articles published in the English language. Independent review authors selected and screened studies. Appraisal for methodological quality of studies was conducted using the Joanna Briggs Institute assessment checklist. RevMan 5.3 software was used for meta-analysis. The I ² statistical significance and Egger's test were used to assess heterogeneity and publication bias, respectively.

Results

The pooled prevalence of premature rupture of the membrane among pregnant women in Ethiopia was 9.2% (95% confidence interval = 5.0, 16.4). Factors significantly associated with premature rupture of the membrane were no antenatal care visit (odds ratio = 2.87, confidence interval = 1.34, 6.14), history of premature rupture of the membrane (odds ratio = 4.09, 95% confidence interval = 2.82, 5.91), history of abortion (odds ratio = 3.13, confidence interval = 1.63, 6.01), abnormal vaginal discharge (odds ratio = 6.78, confidence interval = 4.11, 11.16), and urinary tract infection (odds ratio = 3.04, confidence interval = 1.21, 7.63).

Conclusion

Nearly one in ten pregnancies in Ethiopia encounters premature rupture of the membrane complications. The finding highlights improving antenatal care utilization, thus preventing or treating urinary and reproductive tract infections, and tailored interventions for pregnant women with a history of premature rupture of the membrane or abortion contribute to reduced premature rupture of the membrane.

Can the Robson 10 Group Classification System help identify which groups of women are driving the high caesarean section rate in major private hospitals in eastern Ethiopia? A cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

The rates of caesarean section (CS) in Ethiopian private hospitals are high compared with those in public facilities, and there are limited descriptions of groups of women contributing to these high rates. The objective of this study was to describe the groups contributing to increased CS rates using the Robson classification in two major private hospitals in eastern Ethiopia.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Two major private hospitals in eastern Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

All women who gave birth from 9 January 2019 to 8 January 2020 in two major private hospitals in eastern Ethiopia.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the Robson 10 Group Classification System. The secondary outcome was indication for CS as recorded in the medical files.

RESULTS

Of 1203 births in both hospitals combined during the study period, 415 (34.5%) were by CS. Women with a uterine scar due to previous CS (group 5), single cephalic term multiparous women in spontaneous labour (group 3) and single cephalic term nulliparous women in spontaneous labour (group 1) were the leading groups contributing 33%, 27.5% and 17.1%, respectively. The leading documented indications were fetal compromise (29.4%), previous CS (27.2%) and obstructed labour (12.3%).

CONCLUSION

More than three-fourths of CS were performed among Robson groups 5, 3 and 1, indicating inadequate trial of labour after CS or management of labour among relatively low-risk groups (3 and 1). Improving management of spontaneous labour and strengthening clinical practice around safely providing the option of vaginal birth after CS practice are strategies required to reduce the high CS rates in these private facilities.

Assessment of Postpartum Hemorrhage in a University Hospital in Eastern Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study

Objective

Despite implementation of different strategies, postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) continued to account for a substantial proportion of maternal deaths in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to assess the magnitude of PPH and its associated factors among women who gave birth in a university hospital in eastern Ethiopia from 1 to 31 March 2020.

Methods

An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted. A review of 653 randomly selected medical records of all deliveries from 1 March 2018 to 29 February 2020 in Hiwot Fana Specialized University Hospital (HFSUH), a university hospital in eastern Ethiopia, was conducted. Data were collected on sociodemographic characteristics, obstetric and reproductive health conditions, and presence of PPH. Data were coded, checked for completeness and entered using EpiData 3.1 and exported to SPSS 20 for analysis. Results were expressed using frequencies, tables and figures. Binary and multiple logistic regression were fitted to identify factors associated with PPH and associations were described using adjusted odds ratio (aOR) along with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Associations with p<0.05 in the multivariable logistic regression were declared as statistically significant.

Results

From a total of 642 (98.3%) women included in this study, 83 (12.9%; 95% CI 10.4–15.6) had PPH. Maternal age >35 years (aOR = 3.08; 95% CI 1.56, 6.07), no antenatal care (aOR = 3.65; 95% CI 1.97, 6.76), history of PPH (aOR = 4.18; 95% CI 1.99, 8.82), and being grand multigravida (aOR = 3.33; 95% CI 1.14, 9.74) were significantly associated with having PPH.

Conclusion

A high proportion of women who gave birth in HFSUH experienced PPH. Prevention and management of PPH should focus on improving antenatal care and prioritize grand multigravida, older women, and women with a previous history of PPH.

Undernutrition among Institutionalized School-age Orphans in Harari Regional State, Eastern Ethiopia: A Cross-sectional Study

Background:

Although orphans are at increased risk of undernutrition, studies assessing prevalence of undernutrition are limited to orphans residing with their relatives or on street. This study was conducted to assess magnitude of undernutrition and its associated factors among institutionalized school-age orphans in Harari Regional State, eastern Ethiopia.

Methods:

An institution based cross-sectional study was conducted among all school-age (6-12 years) orphans living in all orphan centers in Harari Regional State, eastern Ethiopia. Data were collected by using a structured pretested questionnaire supplemented with anthropometric measurements. Data were entered using EpiData 3.1 and analyzed using SPSS 22. Logistic regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with undernutrition. Statistical significance was declared at P-value <.05.

Results:

A total of 265 orphans residing in all orphan centers in the region were included. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight were 15.8% (95% CI: 11.9, 20.7), 10.9% (95% CI: 7.7, 15.3), and 8.7% (95% CI: 4.3, 10.5), respectively. Staying in orphan center for 6 to 10 years (AOR = 6.2; 95% CI: 2.6, 15.10), having recent illness (AOR = 3.9; 95% CI: 1.4, 10.4), and being aged 10 to 12 years (AOR = 11.2; 95% CI: 3.5, 35.4) were significantly associated with stunting whereas having recent illness (AOR = 4.3; 95% CI: 1.4, 7.3) and being aged 6 to 7 years (AOR: 10.4; 95% CI: 3.2, 33.6) were significantly associated with wasting. Underweight was more likely (AOR: 8.9; 95% CI: 2.7, 29.5) among children with recent illness.

Conclusions:

Almost 1 in 6, 1 in 9, and 1 in 11 institutionalized school-age orphans in Harari Regional State were stunted, wasted, and underweight respectively. Younger children and those with recent illness were more likely to be undernourished. Underlying reasons for undernutrition among orphans being cared in orphan centers should be further explored.

Maternal near miss among women admitted in major private hospitals in eastern Ethiopia: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Since maternal mortality is a rare event, maternal near miss has been used as a proxy indicator for measuring maternal health. Maternal near miss (MNM) refers to a woman who nearly died but survived of complications during pregnancy, childbirth or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy. Although study of MNM in Ethiopia is becoming common, it is limited to public facilities leaving private facilities aside. The objective of this study was to assess MNM among women admitted in major private hospitals in eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institution based retrospective study was conducted from March 05 to 31, 2020 in two major private hospitals in Harar and Dire Dawa, eastern Ethiopia. The records of all women who were admitted during pregnancy, delivery or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy was reviewed for the presence of MNM criteria as per the sub-Saharan African MNM criteria. Descriptive analysis was done by computing proportion, ratio and means. Factors associated with MNM were assessed using binary logistic regression with adjusted odds ratio (aOR) along with its 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

Of 1214 pregnant or postpartum women receiving care between January 09, 2019 and February 08, 2020, 111 women developed life-threatening conditions: 108 MNM and 3 maternal deaths. In the same period, 1173 live births were registered, resulting in an MNM ratio of 92.1 per 1000 live births. Anemia in the index pregnancy (aOR: 5.03; 95%CI: 3.12-8.13), having chronic hypertension (aOR: 3.13; 95% CI: 1.57-6.26), no antenatal care (aOR: 3.04; 95% CI: 1.58-5.83), being > 35 years old (aOR: 2.29; 95%CI: 1.22-4.29), and previous cesarean section (aOR: 4.48; 95% CI: 2.67-7.53) were significantly associated with MNM.

CONCLUSIONS

Close to a tenth of women admitted to major private hospitals in eastern Ethiopia developed MNM. Women with anemia, history of cesarean section, and old age should be prioritized for preventing and managing MNM. Strengthening antenatal care and early screening of chronic conditions including hypertension is essential for preventing MNM.

Undernutrition among Pregnant Women in Rural Communities in Southern Ethiopia

Background

Maternal undernutrition rates in Ethiopia are among the highest in the world. In addition, a huge inequity exists within the country, with pregnant women in rural communities being at increased risk. This study assessed the prevalence of undernutrition and its associated factors among pregnant women in a rural community in southern Ethiopia.

Methods

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 376 randomly selected pregnant women. Data were collected through face-to-face interview followed by mid–upper arm circumference measurement. Household food insecurity and minimum dietary diversity for women were assessed. Data were entered into EpiData 3.1 and exported to SPSS 20 for analysis. Logistic regression models were fitted to check associations between independent variables and undernutrition. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05.

Results

The prevalence of undernutrition was 41.2% (95% CI 36.3%–46.3%). Unintended pregnancy (AOR 2.06, 95% CI 1.27–3.36) and not participating in Wome's Health Development Army meetings (AOR 3.64, 95% CI 1.51–8.77) were independent predictors of undernutrition. However, minimum dietary diversity for women of five or more food groups (AOR 0.24, 95% CI 0.07–0.82), having at least one antenatal care visit (AOR 0.46, 95% CI 0.27–0.78), age at first pregnancy ≥20 years (AOR 0.39, 95% CI 0.21–0.76), and being from food-secure households (AOR 0.26, 95% CI 0.16–0.43) were independent protective factors against undernutrition.

Conclusion

Undernutrition among pregnant women was highly prevalent in the study area. Interventions aiming to reduce undernutrition should focus on discouraging teenage and unintended pregnancy, reducing household food insecurity, and promoting antenatal care visits and encouraging consumption of diversified diets by women. Strengthening the existing network of the Women’s Health Development Army seems to be very important.

Determinants of maternal near-miss in private hospitals in eastern Ethiopia: A nested case–control study

Objective:

Maternal near-miss refers to a woman who nearly died but survived complications in pregnancy, childbirth, or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy. The study of maternal near-miss has become essential for improving the quality of obstetric care. The objective of this study was to identify the determinants of maternal near-miss among women admitted to major private hospitals in eastern Ethiopia.

Method:

An unmatched nested case–control study was conducted in major private hospitals in eastern Ethiopia from 5 March to 31 March 2020. Cases were women who fulfilled the sub-Saharan African maternal near-miss criteria and those admitted to the same hospitals but discharged without any complications under the sub-Saharan African maternal near-miss tool were controls. For each case, three corresponding women were randomly selected as controls. Factors associated with maternal near-misses were analyzed using binary and multiple logistic regressions with an adjusted odds ratio along with a 95% confidence interval. Finally, p-value < 0.05 was considered as a cut-off point for the significant association.

Results:

A total of 432 women (108 cases and 324 controls) participated in the study. History of prior cesarean section (AOR = 4.33; 95% CI = 2.36–7.94), anemia in index pregnancy (AOR = 4.38; 95% CI = 2.43–7.91), being ⩾ 35 years of age (AOR = 2.94; 95% CI = 1.37–6.24), not attending antenatal care (AOR = 3.11; 95% CI = 1.43–6.78), and history of chronic medical disorders (AOR = 2.18; 95% CI = 1.03–4.59) were independently associated with maternal near-miss.

Conclusion:

Maternal age ⩾ 35 years, had no antenatal care, had prior cesarean section, being anemic in index pregnancy, and have history of chronic medical disorders were the determinants of maternal near-miss. Improving maternal near-misses requires strengthening antenatal care (including supplementation of iron and folic acid to reduce anemia) and prioritizing women with a history of chronic medical illnesses. Interventions for preventing primary cesarean sections are crucial in this era of the cesarean epidemic to minimize its effect on maternal near-miss.

Surviving mothers and lost babies - burden of stillbirths and neonatal deaths among women with maternal near miss in eastern Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study

Background

Although maternal near miss (MNM) is often considered a ‘great save’ because the woman survived life-threatening complications, these complications may have resulted in loss of a child or severe neonatal morbidity. The objective of this study was to assess proportion of perinatal mortality (stillbirths and early neonatal deaths) in a cohort of women with MNM in eastern Ethiopia. In addition, we compared perinatal outcomes among women who fulfilled the World Health Organization (WHO) and the sub-Saharan African (SSA) MNM criteria.

Methods

In a prospective cohort design, women with potentially life-threatening conditions (PLTC) (severe postpartum hemorrhage, severe pre-(eclampsia), sepsis/severe systemic infection, and ruptured uterus) were identified every day from January 1st, 2016, to April 30th, 2017, and followed until discharge in the two main hospitals in Harar, Ethiopia. Maternal and perinatal outcomes were collected using both sets of criteria. Numbers and proportions of stillbirths and early neonatal deaths were computed and compared.

Results

Of 1054 women admitted with PTLC during the study period, 594 women fulfilled any of the MNM criteria. After excluding near misses related to abortion, ectopic pregnancy or among undelivered women, 465 women were included, in whom 149 (32%) perinatal deaths occurred: 132 (88.6%) stillbirths and 17 (11.4%) early neonatal deaths. In absolute numbers, the SSA criteria picked up more perinatal deaths compared to the WHO criteria, but the proportion of perinatal deaths was lower in SSA group compared to the WHO (149/465, 32% vs 62/100, 62%). Perinatal mortality was more likely among near misses with antepartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 4.81; 95% CI = 1.76-13.20), grand multiparous women (aOR = 4.31; 95% confidence interval CI = 1.23-15.25), and women fulfilling any of the WHO near miss criteria (aOR = 4.89; 95% CI = 2.17-10.99).

Conclusion

WHO MNM criteria pick up fewer perinatal deaths, although perinatal mortality occurred in a larger proportion of women fulfilling the WHO MNM criteria compared to the SSA MNM criteria. As women with MNM have increased risk of perinatal deaths (in both definitions), a holistic care addressing the needs of the mother and baby should be considered in management of women with MNM.

Introduction of Criterion-Based Audit of Postpartum Hemorrhage in a University Hospital in Eastern Ethiopia: Implementation and Considerations

With postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) continuing to be the leading cause of maternal mortality in most low-resource settings, an audit of the quality of care in health facilities is essential. The purpose of this study was to identify areas of substandard care and establish recommendations for the management of PPH in Hiwot Fana Specialized University Hospital, eastern Ethiopia. Using standard criteria (n = 8) adapted to the local hospital setting, we audited 45 women with PPH admitted from August 2018 to March 2019. Four criteria were agreed as being low: IV line-setup (32 women, 71.1%), accurate postpartum vital sign monitoring (23 women, 51.1%), performing typing and cross-matching (22 women, 48.9%), and fluid intake/output chart maintenance (6 women, 13.3%). In only 3 out of 45 women (6.7%), all eight standard criteria were met. Deficiencies in the case of note documentation and clinical monitoring, non-availability of medical resources and blood for transfusion, as well as delays in clinical management were identified. The audit created awareness, resulting in self-reflection of current practice and promoted a sense of responsibility to improve care among hospital staff. Locally appropriate recommendations and an intervention plan based on available resources were formulated.

Anti-Cancer Effects of Lycopene in Animal Models of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction

Globally, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the sixth most diagnosed cancer and the third important cause of cancer-related death. As there are only two targeted drugs for the treatment of advanced HCC—that merely extend survival by a few months—the need for alternative treatments is inevitable. Lycopene, a carotenoid that is known to be most abundant in red tomatoes and tomato-based products, has been investigated for its anticancer activity in various types of cancers including HCC. This review was conducted to evaluate the effects of lycopene on HCC from animal models to pave the way for further clinical studies.

Methods

Electronic databases and search engines including PubMed, EMBASE, and Google Scholar were searched for original records addressing the anticancer effect of lycopene in animal models of HCC. Data were extracted using a format prepared in Microsoft Excel and exported to Stata 15.0 for analyses. A meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects model at a 95% confidence level for the outcome measures: tumor incidence, number, and growth (tumor volume and size). The presence of publication bias between studies was evaluated using Egger’s test and funnel plot. The study protocol was registered in the PROSPERO database with reference number: CRD42019159312.

Results

The initial database search yields 286 articles, of which 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. The characteristics of the included studies were a bit diversified. The studies involved a total of 644 animals (312 treatment and 332 control groups) and mice shared the majority (488) followed by rats (117) and ferrets (39). The meta-analysis showed that lycopene significantly reduced the incidence [RR 0.8; 95% CI 0.69, 0.92 (p=0.00); I² = 30.4%, p=0.16; n=11], number [SMD-1.83; 95% CI -3.10, -0.57 (p=0.01); I² = 95.9%, p=0.00; n=9], and growth [SMD -2.13; 95% CI -4.20, -0.04 (p=0.04); I² = 94.6%, p=0.00; n=4] of HCC.

Conclusions

Administration of lycopene appears to inhibit the initiation and progression of cancer in animal models of HCC. However, more controlled and thorough preclinical studies are needed to further evaluate its anti-HCC effects and associated molecular mechanisms.

Beyond No Blame: Practical Challenges of Conducting Maternal and Perinatal Death Reviews in Eastern Ethiopia

Lack of a professional body to address patients’ complaints regarding quality of health care and absence of clear medicolegal guidance hamper maternal death reviews in Ethiopia.

Severe Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy in Eastern Ethiopia: Comparing the Original WHO and Adapted sub-Saharan African Maternal Near-Miss Criteria

OBJECTIVES

To assess life-threatening complications among women admitted with severe hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and compare applicability of World Health Organization (WHO) maternal near-miss (MNM) criteria and the recently adapted sub-Saharan African (SSA) MNM criteria in eastern Ethiopia.

METHODS

Of 1,054 women admitted with potentially life-threatening conditions between January 2016 and April 2017, 562 (53.3%) had severe preeclampsia/eclampsia. We applied the definition of MNM according to the WHO MNM criteria and the SSA MNM criteria. Logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with severe maternal outcomes (MNMs and maternal deaths).

RESULTS

The SSA MNM criteria identified 285 cases of severe maternal outcomes: 271 MNMs and 14 maternal deaths (mortality index 4.9%). The WHO criteria identified 50 cases of severe maternal outcomes: 36 MNMs and 14 maternal deaths (mortality index 28%). The MNM ratio was 36.6 per 1,000 livebirths according to the SSA MNM criteria and 4.9 according to the WHO criteria. More than 80% of women in both groups had MNM events on arrival or within 12 hours after admission. Women without antenatal care, from rural areas, referred from other facilities, and with concomitant hemorrhage more often developed severe maternal outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Regarding hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, the SSA tool is more inclusive than the WHO tool, while still maintaining a considerably high mortality index indicating severity of included cases. This may enable more robust audits. Strengthening the referral system and improving prevention and management of obstetric hemorrhage in women with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy are required to avert severe maternal outcomes.

Applicability of the WHO maternal near miss tool in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

Background

Applicability of the World Health Organization (WHO) maternal near miss criteria in low-income settings is not systematically addressed in the literature. The objective of this review was to determine the applicability of the WHO maternal near miss tool in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Embase, Popline, CINAHL, AJOL, and Google scholar using key words for maternal near miss and sub-Saharan Africa. Studies which applied the WHO maternal near miss criteria, containing clear definitions, and published between January 1st, 2009 and December 31st, 2017 were included. Two authors independently extracted data. Quantitative analysis and narrative synthesis were conducted, and medians with interquartile range (IQR) were calculated for summarizing the findings. Methodological quality of the studies was assessed using the Estabrook’s quality assessment and validity tool.

Results

Fifteen studies from nine countries comprising 227,077 participants were included. Median maternal near miss ratio was 24.2 (IQR: 12.4–35.8) per 1000 live births ranging from 4.4 in a population-based study in South Africa to 198 in a rural private hospital in Nigeria. Eight studies reported challenges in implementing the WHO maternal near miss tool, especially related to the threshold for blood transfusion, and availability of several laboratory-based criteria. In three studies, local adaptations were made.

Conclusion

This review showed that the WHO maternal near miss tool is not uniformly applied in sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, a common adaptation for the region is required to increase its applicability.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12884-019-2225-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Analysis of caesarean sections using Robson 10-group classification system in a university hospital in eastern Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To analyse caesarean section (CS) using Robson 10-group classification system in an Ethiopian university hospital.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

A university hospital in eastern, Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

980 women who underwent CS from January 2016 to April 2017.

MAIN OUTCOME

Robson groups (1-10-based on gestational age, fetal presentation, number of fetus, onset of labour and history of CS) and indications for CS.

RESULTS

Robson group 3 (multiparous women with single cephalic full-term pregnancy in spontaneous labour with no history of CS), group 5 (multiparous women with single cephalic full-term pregnancy with history of CS) and group 1 (single cephalic nulliparous women full-term pregnancy in spontaneous labour) were the major contributors to the overall CS at 21.4%, 21.1% and 19.3%, respectively. The three major indications for CS were fetal compromise (mainly fetal distress), obstructed labour (mainly cephalopelvic disproportion) and previous CS.

CONCLUSION

Robson groups 3, 5 and 1 were the major contributors to the overall CS rate. Fetal compromise, obstructed labour and previous CS were the underlying indications for performing CS. Further study is required to assess the appropriateness of the indications and to reduce CS among the low-risk groups (groups 1 and 3).

Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.

METHODS

We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015.

INTERPRETATION

This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015).

METHODS

We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices.

FINDINGS

In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened.

INTERPRETATION

GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

INTERPRETATION

Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.

METHODS

For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.

FINDINGS

Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.

INTERPRETATION

Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health.