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Rovetta A. Google trends in infodemiology: Methodological steps to avoid irreproducible results and invalid conclusions. Int J Med Inform 2024; 190:105563. [PMID: 39043059 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2024.105563] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2023] [Revised: 07/10/2024] [Accepted: 07/20/2024] [Indexed: 07/25/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Google Trends is a widely used tool for infodemiological surveys. However, irregularities in the random sampling and aggregation algorithms compromise the reliability of the relative search volume (RSV) and the regional online interest (ROI). OBJECTIVE The study aims to unmask methodological criticalities commonly ignored in carrying out infodemiological surveys via Google Trends. A guide to avoiding these shortcomings is also provided. MATERIAL AND METHODS The Google Topic "Coronavirus disease 2019" has been investigated using different timelapses, categories, and IP addresses. The same samples were manually collected multiple times to evaluate the RSV and ROI stability. Stability was estimated through indicators of variability (e.g., coefficient of percentage variation "CV%" and its 4-surprisal interval "4-I"). The content aggregation capacity of the algorithms relating to topics and categories was evaluated through the quantitative analysis of RSV and ROI and the qualitative examination of the related queries. RESULTS The stability of Google Trends' RSV and ROI is not linked exclusively to the dataset dimension or the IP address. Subregional datasets can be highly unstable (e.g., CV% = 10, 4-I: [8,13]). Google Trends categories and topics can exclude relevant queries or include unnecessary queries. The statistical scenario is consistent with the following hypotheses: i) datasets containing too few queries are highly unstable, ii) the "interest over time" data format is generally reliable for evaluating trends and correlations, iii) Google Trends improvements have altered the RSV historical trends. CONCLUSIONS Google Trends can be an effective and efficient infodemiological tool as long as the reliability of web search indexes is appropriately analyzed and weighted for the scientific goal. The methodological steps discussed in this study are critical to drawing valid and relevant scientific conclusions.
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Kim JK, Tawk K, Kim JM, Djalilian HR, Abouzari M. Google Trends Analysis of Otologic Symptom Searches Following COVID-19. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF OTORHINOLARYNGOLOGY 2024; 36:475-482. [PMID: 38745683 PMCID: PMC11090093 DOI: 10.22038/ijorl.2024.75617.3532] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2023] [Accepted: 03/16/2024] [Indexed: 05/16/2024]
Abstract
Introduction COVID-19 infection was accompanied by otologic symptoms, a pattern that was captured early by Google Trends. The objective of this study is to investigate searches for otologic symptoms and identify correlations with the pandemic onset. Materials and Methods Search interest for otologic symptoms was gathered using Google Trends from two years before and two years following the pandemic start date. A two-tailed Mann-Whitney U test was used to identify significant changes and effect size. Results In total, search interest for 14 terms was collected, with significant changes identified in 11. Six terms showed increased search interest, with the most significant rises observed for headache (r=0.589, p<0.001), dizziness (r=0.554, p<0.001), and tinnitus (r=0.410, p<0.001). Search interest decreased for five terms, with the most notable declines found in searches for migraine headache (r=0.35, p<0.001) and phonophobia (r=0.22, p=0.002). No significant changes were seen in ear pressure (p=0.142), neck pain (p=0.935), and sudden hearing loss (p=0.863) searches. Conclusion COVID-19 infection is often accompanied otologic symptoms and holds a diagnostic role. Fluctuating search interest may be attributed to a true increase in cases, media trends, or people's desires to stay informed. Google Trends robustly captured trends in search interest and presented itself as a valuable epidemiological tool.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joshua K. Kim
- School of Medicine, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States.
- Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States.
| | - Karen Tawk
- Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States.
| | - Jonathan M. Kim
- Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States.
| | - Hamid R. Djalilian
- Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States.
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States.
| | - Mehdi Abouzari
- Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States.
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Mancini AD, Sowards S, Blumberg A, Lynch R, Fardella G, Maewsky NC, Prati G. Media exposure related to COVID-19 is associated with worse mental health consequences in the United States compared to Italy. ANXIETY, STRESS, AND COPING 2024; 37:348-360. [PMID: 38163987 DOI: 10.1080/10615806.2023.2299983] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2022] [Accepted: 12/23/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Prolonged media exposure after collective crises is widely shown to have adverse effects on people's mental health. Do these effects show variation across different countries? In the present study, we compared the link between media exposure related to COVID-19 and mental health-related outcomes in the United States and Italy, two countries with high levels of early COVID-19 prevalence. METHOD Participants matched on age and gender in the United States (n = 415) and Italy (n = 442) completed assessments of media exposure, stress, anxiety, COVID-19 worry, and other variables shortly after the first wave of infections in 2020. RESULTS COVID-19 related media exposure predicted higher levels of stress, anxiety, and COVID-19 worry, net of the effects of neuroticism, political identification, and demographics. Moreover, COVID-19 related media exposure interacted with country to predict more stress and COVID-19 worry in the United States than in Italy. CONCLUSIONS Findings are among the first to document cross-national differences in the association of media exposure with mental health outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anthony D Mancini
- Department of Psychology, Marks Hall, Pace University, Pleasantville, NY, USA
| | - Sarah Sowards
- Department of Psychology, Marks Hall, Pace University, Pleasantville, NY, USA
| | - Andrea Blumberg
- Department of Psychology, Marks Hall, Pace University, Pleasantville, NY, USA
| | - Robert Lynch
- Department of Psychology, Marks Hall, Pace University, Pleasantville, NY, USA
| | - Giovanni Fardella
- Department of Psychology, Marks Hall, Pace University, Pleasantville, NY, USA
| | - Nicole C Maewsky
- Department of Psychology, Marks Hall, Pace University, Pleasantville, NY, USA
| | - Gabriele Prati
- Department of Psychology, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
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Marshall D, McRee AL, Gower AL, Reiter PL. Views about vaccines and how views changed during the COVID-19 pandemic among a national sample of young gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2023; 19:2281717. [PMID: 37965729 PMCID: PMC10653772 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2023.2281717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2023] [Accepted: 11/04/2023] [Indexed: 11/16/2023] Open
Abstract
We examined perceptions of vaccines and changes during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. From 2019 to 2021, a national sample of young gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men completed an open-ended survey item about vaccine perceptions. Analyses identified themes and polarity (negative, neutral, or positive) within responses and determined temporal changes across phases of the pandemic ("pre-pandemic," "pandemic," "initial vaccine availability," or "widespread vaccine availability"). Themes included health benefits of vaccines (53.9%), fear of shots (23.7%), COVID-19 (10.3%), vaccines being safe (5.6%), and vaccine hesitancy/misinformation (5.5%). Temporal changes existed for multiple themes (p < .05). Overall, 53.0% of responses were positive, 31.2% were negative, and 15.8% were neutral. Compared to the pre-pandemic phase, polarity was less positive for the widespread vaccine availability phase (odds ratio = 0.64, 95% confidence interval: 0.42-0.96). The findings provide insight into how vaccine perceptions change in concert with a public health emergency.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Marshall
- Division of Health Behavior and Health Promotion, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Annie-Laurie McRee
- Division of General Pediatrics and Adolescent Health, Department of Pediatrics, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, MN, USA
- Center for Scientific Review, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Amy L. Gower
- Division of General Pediatrics and Adolescent Health, Department of Pediatrics, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | - Paul L. Reiter
- Division of Health Behavior and Health Promotion, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
- Comprehensive Cancer Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA
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Sidorenkov G, Vonk JM, Grzegorczyk M, Cortés-Ibañez FO, de Bock GH. Factors associated with SARS-COV-2 positive test in Lifelines. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0294556. [PMID: 38019869 PMCID: PMC10686451 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0294556] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Accepted: 11/03/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-COV-2) can affect anyone, however, it is often mixed with other respiratory diseases. This study aimed to identify the factors associated with SARS-COV-2 positive test. METHODS Participants from the Northern Netherlands representative of the general population were included if filled in the questionnaire about well-being between June 2020-April 2021 and were tested for SARS-COV-2. The outcome was a self-reported test as measured by polymerase chain reaction. The data were collected on age, sex, household, smoking, alcohol use, physical activity, quality of life, fatigue, symptoms and medications use. Participants were matched on sex, age and the timing of their SARS-COV-2 tests maintaining a 1:4 ratio and classified into those with a positive and negative SARS-COV-2 using logistic regression. The performance of the model was compared with other machine-learning algorithms by the area under the receiving operating curve. RESULTS 2564 (20%) of 12786 participants had a positive SARS-COV-2 test. The factors associated with a higher risk of SARS-COV-2 positive test in multivariate logistic regression were: contact with someone tested positive for SARS-COV-2, ≥1 household members, typical SARS-COV-2 symptoms, male gender and fatigue. The factors associated with a lower risk of SARS-COV-2 positive test were higher quality of life, inhaler use, runny nose, lower back pain, diarrhea, pain when breathing, sore throat, pain in neck, shoulder or arm, numbness or tingling, and stomach pain. The performance of the logistic models was comparable with that of random forest, support vector machine and gradient boosting machine. CONCLUSIONS Having a contact with someone tested positive for SARS-COV-2 and living in a household with someone else are the most important factors related to a positive SARS-COV-2 test. The loss of smell or taste is the most prominent symptom associated with a positive test. Symptoms like runny nose, pain when breathing, sore throat are more likely to be indicative of other conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Grigory Sidorenkov
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Judith M. Vonk
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Marco Grzegorczyk
- Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, University of Groningen—Bernoulli Institute for Mathematics, Groningen, Netherlands
| | - Francisco O. Cortés-Ibañez
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Geertruida H. de Bock
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Springer S, Strzelecki A, Zieger M. Maximum generable interest: A universal standard for Google Trends search queries. HEALTHCARE ANALYTICS (NEW YORK, N.Y.) 2023; 3:100158. [PMID: 36936703 PMCID: PMC9997059 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2023] [Revised: 02/25/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2023] [Indexed: 03/11/2023]
Abstract
The coronavirus or COVID-19 pandemic represents a health event with far-reaching global consequences, triggering a strong search interest in related topics on the Internet worldwide. The use of search engine data has become commonplace in research, but a universal standard for comparing different works is desirable to simplify the comparison. The coronavirus pandemic's enormous impact and media coverage have triggered an exceptionally high search interest. Consequently, the maximum generable interest (MGI) on coronavirus is proposed as a universal reference for objectifying and comparing relative search interest in the future. This search interest can be explored with search engine data such as Google Trends data. Additional standards for medium and low search volumes can also be used to reflect the search interest of topics at different levels. Size standards, such as reference to MGI, may help make research more comparable and better evaluate relative search volumes. This study presents a framework for this purpose using the example of stroke.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Artur Strzelecki
- University of Economics in Katowice, Department of Informatics, Katowice, Poland
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Jormand H, Barati M, Bashirian S, Khazaei S, Jenabi E, Zareian S. Developing and validation of COVID-19 media literacy scale among students during the COVID-19 pandemic. BMC Psychol 2023; 11:315. [PMID: 37803434 PMCID: PMC10559652 DOI: 10.1186/s40359-023-01353-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2022] [Accepted: 09/28/2023] [Indexed: 10/08/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This cross-sectional validation work evaluated the psychometric features of the COVID-19 Media Literacy Scale (C-19MLs) in Students. METHODS The study was conducted on 530 students from a medical university in Hamadan, Iran, who were recruited through a stratified cluster random sampling process in June-July 2020. Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and internal consistency were used to assess the reliability. Moreover, CFA (Confirmatory Factor Analyses) and EFA (Exploratory Factor Analyses) were carried out to examine construction validity. CVR (Content Validity Ratio) and CVI (Content Validity Index) were used to examine the content validity. RESULTS According to the factor analysis, it was indicated that the C-19MLs included 21 items measuring five dimensions (constructedness of credible Covid-19 media messages, contractedness of fake media coronavirus messages, fake media coronavirus messages, audience, with three questions in each factor; format, represented lifestyles in fake media coronavirus messages with six questions in each factor) for an explanation of 58.4% of the prevalent variance. The average scores for the CVI and CVR were respectively 0.94 and 0.77. According to confirmatory factor analysis, the studied model had an appropriate fitting to the data; the relative chi-square (x2/df) = 2.706 < 3, RMSEA = 0.093 ≤ 0.1; CFI = 0.893 ≥ 0.9; TLI = 0.874 ≥ 0.9; GFI = 0.816 ≥ 0.9; and SRMR = 0.06 ≤ 0.08. Further analyses represented acceptable findings for internal consistency reliability values with 0.86 of Cronbach's alpha. CONCLUSIONS The results proved that the C-19MLs is a reliable and valid tool, and it is suitable and acceptable now and can be utilized in forthcoming investigations. This highlights educators and stakeholders to realize the importance of participating individuals in the new media ecology and new 'Infomedia' ecosystems for enabling people in the current digital society.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hanieh Jormand
- Vice-chancellor for research and technology, of Health Education and Promotion, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, IR, Iran.
| | - Majid Barati
- Education and Promotion, Department of Public Health, School of Public Health, Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, IR, Iran
| | - Saeed Bashirian
- Department of Public Health, School of Public Health and Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Professor of Health Education and Promotion, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, IR, Iran
| | - Salman Khazaei
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public and Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, IR, Iran
| | | | - Sepideh Zareian
- Vice-Chancellor for Research and Technology, Zareian. Sepideh (MSc), Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
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8
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Ma MZ, Ye S. The COVID-19 pandemic and seeking information about condoms online: an infodemiology approach. Psychol Health 2023; 38:1128-1147. [PMID: 34822308 DOI: 10.1080/08870446.2021.2005794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2021] [Revised: 11/07/2021] [Accepted: 11/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
Objectives: As condoms are effective tools for pathogen-avoidance in sexual intercourse, seeking information about condoms online may be a reactive response to the COVID-19 according to the behavioral immune system theory.Design: Taking an infodemiology perspective, this research employed multilevel analyses to examine how COVID-19 online query data (i.e., Google topic search terms Coronavirus and COVID-19) and coronavirus epidemiological data (i.e., COVID-19 cases per million and case fatality rate) would predict condom information seeking behavior online (i.e., Google topic search term Condom) throughout the pandemic across American states (Study 1) and 102 countries/territories (Study 2), after accounting for death-thought accessibility (i.e., illness-related searches), interest in birth control (i.e., birth-control-related searches), COVID-19 control policy, stay at home behavior, season, religious holidays, yearly trends, autocorrelation, and contextual variables such as HIV prevalence rate and socioeconomic development indicators (GINI index, urbanization, etc.).Results: When there were high levels of COVID-19 concerns in cyberspace in a given week, search volume for condoms increased from the previous week across American states and different countries/territories. By contrast, the effect of actual coronavirus threat was non-significant.Conclusion: Seeking information about condoms online could be a reactive response to high levels of COVID-19 concerns across different populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mac Zewei Ma
- Department of Social and Behavioural Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR
| | - Shengquan Ye
- Department of Social and Behavioural Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR
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Yeung AWK, Parvanov ED, Horbańczuk JO, Kletecka-Pulker M, Kimberger O, Willschke H, Atanasov AG. Public interest in different types of masks and its relationship with pandemic and policy measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: a study using Google Trends data. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1010674. [PMID: 37361173 PMCID: PMC10286862 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1010674] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2022] [Accepted: 05/17/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Google Trends data have been used to investigate various themes on online information seeking. It was unclear if the population from different parts of the world shared the same amount of attention to different mask types during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to reveal which types of masks were frequently searched by the public in different countries, and evaluated if public attention to masks could be related to mandatory policy, stringency of the policy, and transmission rate of COVID-19. By referring to an open dataset hosted at the online database Our World in Data, the 10 countries with the highest total number of COVID-19 cases as of 9th of February 2022 were identified. For each of these countries, the weekly new cases per million population, reproduction rate (of COVID-19), stringency index, and face covering policy score were computed from the raw daily data. Google Trends were queried to extract the relative search volume (RSV) for different types of masks from each of these countries. Results found that Google searches for N95 masks were predominant in India, whereas surgical masks were predominant in Russia, FFP2 masks were predominant in Spain, and cloth masks were predominant in both France and United Kingdom. The United States, Brazil, Germany, and Turkey had two predominant types of mask. The online searching behavior for masks markedly varied across countries. For most of the surveyed countries, the online searching for masks peaked during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic before the government implemented mandatory mask wearing. The search for masks positively correlated with the government response stringency index but not with the COVID-19 reproduction rate or the new cases per million.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andy Wai Kan Yeung
- Oral and Maxillofacial Radiology, Applied Oral Sciences and Community Dental Care, Faculty of Dentistry, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Ludwig Boltzmann Institute Digital Health and Patient Safety, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Emil D. Parvanov
- Ludwig Boltzmann Institute Digital Health and Patient Safety, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Translational Stem Cell Biology, Research Institute of the Medical University of Varna, Varna, Bulgaria
| | - Jarosław Olav Horbańczuk
- Institute of Genetics and Animal Biotechnology of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Magdalenka, Poland
| | - Maria Kletecka-Pulker
- Ludwig Boltzmann Institute Digital Health and Patient Safety, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Institute for Ethics and Law in Medicine, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Oliver Kimberger
- Ludwig Boltzmann Institute Digital Health and Patient Safety, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Anaesthesia, Intensive Care Medicine and Pain Medicine, Medical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Harald Willschke
- Ludwig Boltzmann Institute Digital Health and Patient Safety, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Department of Anaesthesia, Intensive Care Medicine and Pain Medicine, Medical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Atanas G. Atanasov
- Ludwig Boltzmann Institute Digital Health and Patient Safety, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Institute of Genetics and Animal Biotechnology of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Magdalenka, Poland
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Wang B, Liang B, Chen Q, Wang S, Wang S, Huang Z, Long Y, Wu Q, Xu S, Jinna P, Yang F, Ming WK, Liu Q. COVID-19 Related Early Google Search Behavior and Health Communication in the United States: Panel Data Analysis on Health Measures. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:3007. [PMID: 36833701 PMCID: PMC9958808 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20043007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/26/2022] [Revised: 01/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 outbreak at the end of December 2019 spread rapidly all around the world. The objective of this study is to investigate and understand the relationship between public health measures and the development of the pandemic through Google search behaviors in the United States. Our collected data includes Google search queries related to COVID-19 from 1 January to 4 April 2020. After using unit root tests (ADF test and PP test) to examine the stationary and a Hausman test to choose a random effect model, a panel data analysis is conducted to investigate the key query terms with the newly added cases. In addition, a full sample regression and two sub-sample regressions are proposed to explain: (1) The changes in COVID-19 cases number are partly related to search variables related to treatments and medical resources, such as ventilators, hospitals, and masks, which correlate positively with the number of new cases. In contrast, regarding public health measures, social distancing, lockdown, stay-at-home, and self-isolation measures were negatively associated with the number of new cases in the US. (2) In mild states, which ranked one to twenty by the average daily new cases from least to most in 50 states, the query terms about public health measures (quarantine, lockdown, and self-isolation) have a significant negative correlation with the number of new cases. However, only the query terms about lockdown and self-isolation are also negatively associated with the number of new cases in serious states (states ranking 31 to 50). Furthermore, public health measures taken by the government during the COVID-19 outbreak are closely related to the situation of controlling the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Binhui Wang
- School of Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Beiting Liang
- College of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Qiuyi Chen
- School of Journalism, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Shu Wang
- Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
- Laboratory of Biomass and Green Technologies, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liège, 5030 Gembloux, Belgium
| | - Siyi Wang
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Zhongguo Huang
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Yi Long
- Law School of Artificial Intelligence, Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, Shanghai 201701, China
| | - Qili Wu
- School of Journalism and Communication, Jinan University National Media Experimental Teaching Demonstration Center, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Shulin Xu
- School of Economic, Guangzhou College of Commerce, Guangzhou 511363, China
| | - Pranay Jinna
- School of Business, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222, USA
| | - Fan Yang
- Communication Department, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222, USA
| | - Wai-Kit Ming
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Public Health, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Qian Liu
- School of Journalism and Communication, Jinan University National Media Experimental Teaching Demonstration Center, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
- School of Business, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222, USA
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11
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Khosrowjerdi M, Fylking CB, Zeraatkar N. Online information seeking during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-country analysis. IFLA JOURNAL-INTERNATIONAL FEDERATION OF LIBRARY ASSOCIATIONS 2023. [DOI: 10.1177/03400352221141466] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
The aim of this study was to investigate the coronavirus-related web-searching patterns of people from the 10 most affected nations in September 2020. The authors extracted all searches for the sample nations, consisting of the two words ‘COVID-19’ and ‘coronavirus’ and their variations, from Google Trends for the complete year of 2020. The results showed a discrepancy due to the priority of the language used during searches for coronavirus-related information. The time span of the attention level of citizens towards coronavirus-related information was relatively short (about one month). This supports the assumption of the activation model of information exposure that information which generates a negative affect is not welcomed by users. The findings have practical implications for governments and health authorities in, for example, launching information services for citizens in the early months of a pandemic and them remaining as the preferred source of information for citizens.
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Chen J, Mi H, Fu J, Zheng H, Zhao H, Yuan R, Guo H, Zhu K, Zhang Y, Lyu H, Zhang Y, She N, Ren X. Construction and validation of a COVID-19 pandemic trend forecast model based on Google Trends data for smell and taste loss. Front Public Health 2022; 10:1025658. [PMID: 36530657 PMCID: PMC9751448 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1025658] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2022] [Accepted: 11/03/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Aim To explore the role of smell and taste changes in preventing and controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, we aimed to build a forecast model for trends in COVID-19 prediction based on Google Trends data for smell and taste loss. Methods Data on confirmed COVID-19 cases from 6 January 2020 to 26 December 2021 were collected from the World Health Organization (WHO) website. The keywords "loss of smell" and "loss of taste" were used to search the Google Trends platform. We constructed a transfer function model for multivariate time-series analysis and to forecast confirmed cases. Results From 6 January 2020 to 28 November 2021, a total of 99 weeks of data were analyzed. When the delay period was set from 1 to 3 weeks, the input sequence (Google Trends of loss of smell and taste data) and response sequence (number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per week) were significantly correlated (P < 0.01). The transfer function model showed that worldwide and in India, the absolute error of the model in predicting the number of newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the following 3 weeks ranged from 0.08 to 3.10 (maximum value 100; the same below). In the United States, the absolute error of forecasts for the following 3 weeks ranged from 9.19 to 16.99, and the forecast effect was relatively accurate. For global data, the results showed that when the last point of the response sequence was at the midpoint of the uptrend or downtrend (25 July 2021; 21 November 2021; 23 May 2021; and 12 September 2021), the absolute error of the model forecast value for the following 4 weeks ranged from 0.15 to 5.77. When the last point of the response sequence was at the extreme point (2 May 2021; 29 August 2021; 20 June 2021; and 17 October 2021), the model could accurately forecast the trend in the number of confirmed cases after the extreme points. Our developed model could successfully predict the development trends of COVID-19. Conclusion Google Trends for loss of smell and taste could be used to accurately forecast the development trend of COVID-19 cases 1-3 weeks in advance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingguo Chen
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Hao Mi
- School of Computer Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Jinyu Fu
- School of Computer Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Haitian Zheng
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Hongyue Zhao
- Health Science Center, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Rui Yuan
- Health Science Center, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Hanwei Guo
- School of Computer Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Kang Zhu
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Ya Zhang
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Hui Lyu
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Yitong Zhang
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Ningning She
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Xiaoyong Ren
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China,*Correspondence: Xiaoyong Ren
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Goupil de Bouillé J, Luong Nguyen LB, Crépey P, Garlantezec R, Doré V, Dumas A, Ben Mechlia M, Tattevin P, Gaudart J, Spire B, Lert F, Yazdanpanah Y, Delaugerre C, Noret M, Zeggagh J. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during indoor clubbing events: A clustered randomized, controlled, multicentre trial protocol. Front Public Health 2022; 10:981213. [PMID: 36438274 PMCID: PMC9687087 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.981213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2022] [Accepted: 10/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic led to the implementation of several non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), from closings of bars and restaurants to curfews and lockdowns. Vaccination campaigns started hoping it could efficiently alleviate NPI. The primary objective of the "Indoor Transmission of COVID-19" (ITOC) study is to determine among a fully vaccinated population the relative risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during one indoor clubbing event. Secondary objectives are to assess the transmission of other respiratory viruses, risk exposure, and attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination, health pass, and psychological impact of indoor club closing. Methods and analysis Four thousand four hundred healthy volunteers aged 18-49 years and fully vaccinated will be included in Paris region. The intervention is an 8-hour indoor clubbing event with no masks, no social distance, maximum room capacity, and ventilation. A reservation group of up to 10 people will recruit participants, who will be randomized 1:1 to either the experimental group (2,200 volunteers in two venues with capacities of 1,000 people each) or the control group (2,200 volunteers asked not to go to the club). All participants will provide a salivary sample on the day of the experiment and 7 days later. They also will answer several questionnaires. Virological analyses include polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of salivary samples and air of the venue, investigating SARS-CoV-2 and 18 respiratory viruses. Ethics and dissemination Ethical clearance was first obtained in France from the institutional review board (Comité de Protection des Personnes Ile de France VII - CPP), and the trial received clearance from the French National Agency for Medicines and Health Products (Agence National de Sécurité du Médicament - ANSM). The trial is supported and approved by The Agence Nationale Recherche sur le SIDA, les hépatites et maladies émergences (ANRS-MIE). Positive, negative, and inconclusive results will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals. Trial registration number IDR-CB 2021-A01473-38. Clinicaltrial.gov, identifier: NCT05311865.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeanne Goupil de Bouillé
- Service de Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Hôpital Avicenne, AP-HP, Bobigny, France,LEPS Laboratoire Éducations et Pratiques de Santé, Université Paris 13, Bobigny, France,*Correspondence: Jeanne Goupil de Bouillé
| | | | - Pascal Crépey
- Univ Rennes, EHESP, CNRS, INSERM, Arènes - UMR 6051, RSMS - U 1309, Rennes, France
| | - Ronan Garlantezec
- CHU de Rennes, University Rennes, INSERM, EHESP, Irset (Institut de Recherche en Santé, Environnement et Travail) – UMR_S 1085, Rennes, France
| | | | - Audrey Dumas
- ANRS, Agence Nationale Recherche Sida, Paris, France
| | | | - Pierre Tattevin
- Infectious Diseases and Intensive Care Unit, Pontchaillou University Hospital, Rennes, France
| | - Jean Gaudart
- Aix Marseille University, APHM, INSERM, IRD, SESSTIM, ISSPAM, UMR1252, Hop Timone, BioSTIC, Biostatistic and ICT, Marseille, France
| | - Bruno Spire
- Aix Marseille University, APHM, INSERM, IRD, SESSTIM, ISSPAM, UMR1252, Marseille, France
| | - France Lert
- ANRS, Agence Nationale Recherche Sida, Paris, France
| | - Yazdan Yazdanpanah
- ANRS, Agence Nationale Recherche Sida, Paris, France,Service de Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Hôpital Bichat, AP-HP, Paris, France
| | - Constance Delaugerre
- Service de Virologie, Hôpital Saint-Louis, AP-HP, INSERM U944, Université de Paris, Paris, France
| | | | - Jeremy Zeggagh
- Service de Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales, Hôpital Saint-Louis, AP-HP, Paris, France
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Kłak A, Furmańczyk K, Nowicka PM, Mańczak M, Barańska A, Religioni U, Siekierska A, Ambroziak M, Chłopek M. The Relationship between Searches for COVID-19 Vaccines and Dynamics of Vaccinated People in Poland: An Infodemiological Study. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:13275. [PMID: 36293855 PMCID: PMC9603580 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph192013275] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2022] [Revised: 10/04/2022] [Accepted: 10/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Google Trends has turned out to be an appropriate tool for evaluating correlations and prognostic modelling regarding infectious diseases. The possibility of selecting a vaccine against COVID-19 has increased social interest in particular vaccines. The objective of this study was to show dependencies between the frequency of searches for COVID-19 vaccinations and the number of vaccinated people in Poland, along with epidemiological data. METHODS Data were collected regarding Google searches for COVID-19 vaccines, the number of people in Poland vaccinated against COVID-19, the number of new cases, and the number of deaths due to COVID-19. Data were filtered from 27 December 2020 to 1 September 2021. RESULTS The number of new vaccinations smoothed per million correlated most strongly with searches for the word 'Pfizer' in Google Trends (Kendall's tau = 0.46, p < 0.001). The number of new deaths correlated most strongly with the search phrase 'AstraZeneca' (Kendall's tau = 0.46, p < 0.001). The number of new cases per million correlated most strongly with searches for 'AstraZeneca' (Kendall's tau = 0.49, p < 0.001). The maximum daily number of searches ranged between 110 and 130. A significant interest in COVID-19 vaccines was observed from February to June 2021, i.e., in the period of a considerable increase in the number of new cases and new deaths due to COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS A significant increase in interest in COVID-19 vaccines was observed from February to June 2021, i.e., in the period of gradually extended access to vaccinations, as well as a considerable increase in the number of new cases and new deaths due to COVID-19. The use of Google Trends with relevant keywords and a comparison with the course of the COVID-19 pandemic facilitates evaluation of the relationship between the frequency and types of searches for COVID-19 vaccines and epidemiological data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Kłak
- Department of Environmental Hazards Prevention, Allergology and Immunology, Medical University of Warsaw, Banacha 1a Street, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Konrad Furmańczyk
- Department of Environmental Hazards Prevention, Allergology and Immunology, Medical University of Warsaw, Banacha 1a Street, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland
- Institute of Information Technology, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, 02-776 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Paulina Maria Nowicka
- Department of Environmental Hazards Prevention, Allergology and Immunology, Medical University of Warsaw, Banacha 1a Street, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Małgorzata Mańczak
- Department of Gerontology, Public Health and Didactics, National Institute of Geriatrics, Rheumatology and Rehabilitation, Spartanska 1 Street, 02-637 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Agnieszka Barańska
- Department of Medical Informatics and Statistics with e-Health Lab, Medical University of Lublin, K. Jaczewskiego 5 Street, 20-059 Lublin, Poland
| | - Urszula Religioni
- Collegium of Business Administration, Warsaw School of Economics, 02-513 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Anna Siekierska
- Department of Public Health, Institute of Psychiatry and Neurology, Sobieskiego 9 Street, 02-957 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Martyna Ambroziak
- Graduate of the Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical University of Warsaw, Żwirki i Wigury 61 Street, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Magdalena Chłopek
- Graduate of the Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical University of Warsaw, Żwirki i Wigury 61 Street, 02-091 Warsaw, Poland
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15
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Simonart T, Lam Hoai XL, de Maertelaer V. Worldwide Evolution of Vaccinable and Nonvaccinable Viral Skin Infections: Google Trends Analysis. JMIR DERMATOLOGY 2022; 5:e35034. [PMID: 37632891 PMCID: PMC10334945 DOI: 10.2196/35034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2021] [Revised: 08/24/2022] [Accepted: 09/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Most common viral skin infections are not reportable conditions. Studying the population dynamics of these viral epidemics using traditional field methods is costly and time-consuming, especially over wide geographical areas. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to explore the evolution, seasonality, and distribution of vaccinable and nonvaccinable viral skin infections through an analysis of Google Trends. METHODS Worldwide search trends from January 2004 through May 2021 for viral skin infections were extracted from Google Trends, quantified, and analyzed. RESULTS Time series decomposition showed that the total search term volume for warts; zoster; roseola; measles; hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD); varicella; and rubella increased worldwide over the study period, whereas the interest for Pityriasis rosea and herpes simplex decreased. Internet searches for HFMD, varicella, and measles exhibited the highest seasonal patterns. The interest for measles and rubella was more pronounced in African countries, whereas the interest for HFMD and roseola was more pronounced in East Asia. CONCLUSIONS Harnessing data generated by web searches may increase the efficacy of traditional surveillance systems and strengthens the suspicion that the incidence of some vaccinable viral skin infections such as varicella, measles, and rubella may be globally increasing, whereas the incidence of common nonvaccinable skin infections remains stable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thierry Simonart
- Department of Dermatology, Delta Hospital, Centre Hospitalier Interrégional Edith Cavell, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Xuân-Lan Lam Hoai
- Department of Dermatology, St Pierre - Brugmann - Hôpital Universitaire des Enfants Reine Fabiola University Hospitals, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Viviane de Maertelaer
- Department of Biostatistics, Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Biologie Humaine et Moléculaire, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
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16
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Saegner T, Austys D. Forecasting and Surveillance of COVID-19 Spread Using Google Trends: Literature Review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:12394. [PMID: 36231693 PMCID: PMC9566212 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191912394] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2022] [Revised: 09/23/2022] [Accepted: 09/26/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
The probability of future Coronavirus Disease (COVID)-19 waves remains high, thus COVID-19 surveillance and forecasting remains important. Online search engines harvest vast amounts of data from the general population in real time and make these data publicly accessible via such tools as Google Trends (GT). Therefore, the aim of this study was to review the literature about possible use of GT for COVID-19 surveillance and prediction of its outbreaks. We collected and reviewed articles about the possible use of GT for COVID-19 surveillance published in the first 2 years of the pandemic. We resulted in 54 publications that were used in this review. The majority of the studies (83.3%) included in this review showed positive results of the possible use of GT for forecasting COVID-19 outbreaks. Most of the studies were performed in English-speaking countries (61.1%). The most frequently used keyword was "coronavirus" (53.7%), followed by "COVID-19" (31.5%) and "COVID" (20.4%). Many authors have made analyses in multiple countries (46.3%) and obtained the same results for the majority of them, thus showing the robustness of the chosen methods. Various methods including long short-term memory (3.7%), random forest regression (3.7%), Adaboost algorithm (1.9%), autoregressive integrated moving average, neural network autoregression (1.9%), and vector error correction modeling (1.9%) were used for the analysis. It was seen that most of the publications with positive results (72.2%) were using data from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Later, the search volumes reduced even though the incidence peaked. In most countries, the use of GT data showed to be beneficial for forecasting and surveillance of COVID-19 spread.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tobias Saegner
- Department of Public Health, Institute of Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, M. K. Čiurlionio 21/27, LT-03101 Vilnius, Lithuania
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17
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Loiacono L, Puglisi R, Rizzo L, Secomandi R. Pandemic knowledge and regulation effectiveness: Evidence from COVID-19. JOURNAL OF COMPARATIVE ECONOMICS 2022; 50:768-783. [PMID: 35221397 PMCID: PMC8863948 DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2022.02.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2021] [Revised: 02/14/2022] [Accepted: 02/20/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The spread of COVID-19 led countries around the world to adopt lockdown measures of varying stringency, with the purpose of restricting the movement of people. However, the effectiveness of these measures on mobility has been markedly different. Employing a difference-in-differences design, we analyse the effectiveness of movement restrictions across different countries. We disentangle the role of regulation (stringency measures) from the role of people's knowledge about the spread of COVID-19. We proxy COVID-19 knowledge by using Google Trends data on the term "Covid". We find that lockdown measures have a higher impact on mobility the more people learn about COVID-19. This finding is driven by countries with low levels of trust in institutions and low levels of education.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Leonzio Rizzo
- University of Ferrara, Italy
- Institut d'Economia Barcelona, Spain
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18
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Ma MZ. Heightened religiosity proactively and reactively responds to the COVID-19 pandemic across the globe: Novel insights from the parasite-stress theory of sociality and the behavioral immune system theory. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTERCULTURAL RELATIONS : IJIR 2022; 90:38-56. [PMID: 35855693 PMCID: PMC9276875 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijintrel.2022.07.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2021] [Revised: 07/05/2022] [Accepted: 07/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
According to the parasite-stress theory of sociality and the behavioral immune system theory, heightened religiosity serves an anti-pathogen function by promoting in-group assortative sociality. Thus, highly religious countries/territories could have better control of the COVID-19 (proactively avoids disease-threat), and heightened COVID-19 threat could increase religiosity (reactively responds to disease-threat). As expected, country-level religiosity (religion-related online searches (Allah, Buddhism, Jesus, etc.) and number of total religions/ethnoreligions) negatively and significantly predicted COVID-19 severity (a composite index of COVID-19 susceptibility, reproductive rate, morbidity, and mortality rates) (Study 1a), after accounting for covariates (e.g., socioeconomic factors, ecological factors, collectivism index, cultural tightness-looseness index, COVID-19 policy response, test-to-case ratio). Moreover, multilevel analysis accounting for daily- (e.g., time-trend effect, season) and macro-level (same as in Study 1a) covariates showed that country-level religious searches, compared with the number of total religions/ethnoreligions, were more robust in negatively and significantly predicting daily-level COVID-19 severity during early pandemic stages (Study 1b). At weekly level, perceived coronavirus threat measured with coronavirus-related searches (corona, covid, covid-19, etc.), compared with actual COVID-19 threat measured with epidemiological data, showed larger effects in positively predicting religious searches (Study 2), after accounting for weekly- (e.g., autocorrelation, time-trend effect, season, religious holidays, major-illness-related searches) and macro-level (e.g., Christian-majority country/territory and all country-level variables in Study 1) covariates. Accordingly, heightened religiosity could proactively and reactively respond to the COVID-19 pandemic across the globe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mac Zewei Ma
- Department of Social and Behavioural Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
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19
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Ito T. Global monitoring of public interest in preventive measures against COVID-19 via analysis of Google Trends: an infodemiology and infoveillance study. BMJ Open 2022; 12:e060715. [PMID: 35953258 PMCID: PMC9378949 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-060715] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced people's concerns regarding infectious diseases and their preventive measures. However, the magnitude of the impact and the difference between countries are unclear. This study aimed to assess the magnitude of the impact of COVID-19 on public interest and people's behaviours globally in preventing infectious diseases while comparing international trends and sustainability. DESIGN An infodemiology and infoveillance study. SETTING The study employed a web-based data collection to delineate public interest regarding COVID-19 preventive measures using Google Trends. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES A relative search volume was assigned to a keyword, standardising it from 0 to 100, with 100 representing the highest share of the term searches. The search terms "coronavirus", "wash hand", "social distancing", "hand sanitizer" and "mask" were investigated across 196 different countries and regions from July 2018 to October 2021 and weekly reports of the relative search volume were obtained. Persistence of interest was assessed by comparing the first 20 weeks with the last 20 weeks of the study period. RESULTS Although the relative search volume of "coronavirus" increased and was sustained at a significantly higher level (p<0.05) than before the pandemic declaration, globally, the trends and sustainability of the interest in preventable measures against COVID-19 varied between countries and regions. CONCLUSIONS Sustained interest in preventive measures differed globally, with regional differences noted among Asia, Europe, Africa and the Americas. The global differences should be considered for implementing effective interventions against COVID-19. The increased interest in preventive behaviours against COVID-19 may be related to overall infectious disease prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tomoo Ito
- Bureau of International Health Cooperation, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan
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20
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Samadbeik M, Garavand A, Aslani N, Ebrahimzadeh F, Fatehi F. Assessing the online search behavior for COVID-19 outbreak: Evidence from Iran. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0267818. [PMID: 35881584 PMCID: PMC9321440 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267818] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2021] [Accepted: 04/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Google Trends (GT) is an important free tool for online search behavior analysis, which provides access to Internet search patterns in Google. In recent decades, this database has been used for predicting the outbreak of epidemics and pandemics in different regions of the world. The present study aimed to evaluate Iranian users’ COVID-19-related online search behavior. Methods This longitudinal study was conducted in 2021. The data of Iranian users’ COVID-19-related online search behavior (trend) were collected from the GT website, and the epidemiological data of the COVID-19 outbreak in Iran from 16 February 2020 to 2 January 2021 were sourced from the Iranian ministry of health and medical education, as well as the World Health Organization. The data were analyzed in SPSS using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results All the COVID-19-related search terms in Iran gained their highest popularity value (relative search volume = 100) in the first 8 weeks of the pandemic, and then this value assumed a decreasing trend over time. Based on factor analysis, relative search volume (RSV) of factor 1 terms (related to corona [in Persian] and corona) have a low significance relationship with COVID-19 epidemiological data in one-, two-, and three-week time lags. Although, RSV of factor 2 terms (related to COVID [in Persian], COVID-19, and coronavirus) correlated with the total weekly number of COVID-19 cases in mentioned time lags. Conclusion COVID-19-related search terms were popular among Iranian users at the beginning of the pandemic. The online search queries and the key terms searched by Iranian users varied during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study provides evidence in favor of the adoption of GT as an epidemiological surveillance tool but, it is necessary to consider that mass media and other confounders can significantly influence RSVs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mahnaz Samadbeik
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
| | - Ali Garavand
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
- * E-mail:
| | - Nasim Aslani
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
| | - Farzad Ebrahimzadeh
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Health and Nutrition, Nutritional Health Research Center, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
| | - Farhad Fatehi
- School of Psychological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Centre for Health Services Research, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
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21
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Deiner MS, Kaur G, McLeod SD, Schallhorn JM, Chodosh J, Hwang DH, Lietman TM, Porco TC. A Google Trends Approach to Identify Distinct Diurnal and Day-of-Week Web-Based Search Patterns Related to Conjunctivitis and Other Common Eye Conditions: Infodemiology Study. J Med Internet Res 2022; 24:e27310. [PMID: 35537041 PMCID: PMC9297131 DOI: 10.2196/27310] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2021] [Revised: 08/18/2021] [Accepted: 05/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Studies suggest diurnal patterns of occurrence of some eye conditions. Leveraging new information sources such as web-based search data to learn more about such patterns could improve the understanding of patients' eye-related conditions and well-being, better inform timing of clinical and remote eye care, and improve precision when targeting web-based public health campaigns toward underserved populations. OBJECTIVE To investigate our hypothesis that the public is likely to consistently search about different ophthalmologic conditions at different hours of the day or days of week, we conducted an observational study using search data for terms related to ophthalmologic conditions such as conjunctivitis. We assessed whether search volumes reflected diurnal or day-of-week patterns and if those patterns were distinct from each other. METHODS We designed a study to analyze and compare hourly search data for eye-related and control search terms, using time series regression models with trend and periodicity terms to remove outliers and then estimate diurnal effects. We planned a Google Trends setting, extracting data from 10 US states for the entire year of 2018. The exposure was internet search, and the participants were populations who searched through Google's search engine using our chosen study terms. Our main outcome measures included cyclical hourly and day-of-week web-based search patterns. For statistical analyses, we considered P<.001 to be statistically significant. RESULTS Distinct diurnal (P<.001 for all search terms) and day-of-week search patterns for eye-related terms were observed but with differing peak time periods and cyclic strengths. Some diurnal patterns represented those reported from prior clinical studies. Of the eye-related terms, "pink eye" showed the largest diurnal amplitude-to-mean ratios. Stronger signal was restricted to and peaked in mornings, and amplitude was higher on weekdays. By contrast, "dry eyes" had a higher amplitude diurnal pattern on weekends, with stronger signal occurring over a broader evening-to-morning period and peaking in early morning. CONCLUSIONS The frequency of web-based searches for various eye conditions can show cyclic patterns according to time of the day or week. Further studies to understand the reasons for these variations may help supplement the current clinical understanding of ophthalmologic symptom presentation and improve the timeliness of patient messaging and care interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael S Deiner
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
| | - Gurbani Kaur
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
- School of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
| | - Stephen D McLeod
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
| | - Julie M Schallhorn
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
| | - James Chodosh
- Department of Ophthalmology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States
- Massachusetts Eye and Ear, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Daniel H Hwang
- Stanford University, San Mateo, CA, United States
- The Nueva School, San Mateo, CA, United States
| | - Thomas M Lietman
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
- Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
| | - Travis C Porco
- Francis I Proctor Foundation, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
- Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States
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22
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Usage patterns of oral H1-antihistamines in 10 European countries: A study using MASK-air® and Google Trends real-world data. World Allergy Organ J 2022; 15:100660. [PMID: 35784944 PMCID: PMC9240373 DOI: 10.1016/j.waojou.2022.100660] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2022] [Revised: 04/29/2022] [Accepted: 05/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Real-world data represent an increasingly important source of knowledge in health care. However, assessing their representativeness can be challenging. We compared (i) real-world data from a mobile app for allergic rhinitis (MASK-air®) on the usage of oral H1-antihistamines from 2016 to 2020 in 10 European countries with (ii) Google Trends data on the relative volume of searches for such antihistamines. For each country, we sorted 5 different oral H1-antihistamines by their frequency of use and volume of searches. We found perfect agreement on the order of antihistamine use in MASK-air® and in Google Trends searches in 4 countries (France, Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom). Different levels of agreement were observed in the remaining countries (kappa coefficient from −0.50 to 0.75). Oral H1-antihistamine data from Google Trends and MASK-air® were consistent with nationwide medication sales data from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. These results suggest that MASK-air® data may be consistent with other sources of real-world data, although assessing the representativeness of their users may require further studies.
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23
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How Italy Tweeted about COVID-19: Detecting Reactions to the Pandemic from Social Media. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19137785. [PMID: 35805444 PMCID: PMC9265594 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19137785] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2022] [Revised: 06/16/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic required communities throughout the world to deal with unknown threats. Using Twitter data, this study aimed to detect reactions to the outbreak in Italy and to evaluate the relationship between measures derived from social media (SM) with both national epidemiological data and reports on the violations of the restrictions. The dynamics of time-series about tweets counts, emotions expressed, and themes discussed were evaluated using Italian posts regarding COVID-19 from 25 February to 4 May 2020. Considering 4,988,255 tweets, results highlight that emotions changed significantly over time with anger, disgust, fear, and sadness showing a downward trend, while joy, trust, anticipation, and surprise increased. The trend of emotions correlated significantly with national variation in confirmed cases and reports on the violations of restrictive measures. The study highlights the potential of using SM to assess emotional and behavioural reactions, delineating their possible contribution to the establishment of a decision management system during emergencies.
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24
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Ilias I, Milionis C, Koukkou E. COVID-19 and thyroid disease: An infodemiological pilot study. World J Methodol 2022; 12:99-106. [PMID: 35721248 PMCID: PMC9157630 DOI: 10.5662/wjm.v12.i3.99] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2021] [Revised: 02/11/2022] [Accepted: 03/27/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Google Trends searches for symptoms and/or diseases may reflect actual disease epidemiology. Recently, Google Trends searches for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated terms have been linked to the epidemiology of COVID-19. Some studies have linked COVID-19 with thyroid disease.
AIM To assess COVID-19 cases per se vs COVID-19-associated Google Trends searches and thyroid-associated Google Trends searches.
METHODS We collected data on worldwide weekly Google Trends searches regarding “COVID-19”, “severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)”, “coronavirus”, “smell”, “taste”, “cough”, “thyroid”, “thyroiditis”, and “subacute thyroiditis” for 92 wk and worldwide weekly COVID-19 cases' statistics in the same time period. The study period was split in half (approximately corresponding to the preponderance of different SARS-COV-2 virus variants) and in each time period we performed cross-correlation analysis and mediation analysis.
RESULTS Significant positive cross-correlation function values were noted in both time periods. More in detail, COVID-19 cases per se were found to be associated with no lag with Google Trends searches for COVID-19 symptoms in the first time period and in the second time period to lead searches for symptoms, COVID-19 terms, and thyroid terms. COVID-19 cases per se were associated with thyroid-related searches in both time periods. In the second time period, the effect of “COVID-19” searches on “thyroid’ searches was significantly mediated by COVID-19 cases (P = 0.048).
CONCLUSION Searches for a non-specific symptom or COVID-19 search terms mostly lead Google Trends thyroid-related searches, in the second time period. This time frame/sequence particularly in the second time period (noted by the preponderance of the SARS-COV-2 delta variant) lends some credence to associations of COVID-19 cases per se with (apparent) thyroid disease (via searches for them).
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Affiliation(s)
- Ioannis Ilias
- Department of Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism, Elena Venizelou Hospital, Athens GR-11521, Greece
| | - Charalampos Milionis
- Department of Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism, Elena Venizelou Hospital, Athens GR-11521, Greece
| | - Eftychia Koukkou
- Department of Endocrinology, Diabetes & Metabolism, Elena Venizelou Hospital, Athens GR-11521, Greece
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25
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Leung CLK, Li KK, Wei VWI, Tang A, Wong SYS, Lee SS, Kwok KO. Profiling vaccine believers and skeptics in nurses: A latent profile analysis. Int J Nurs Stud 2022; 126:104142. [PMID: 34923316 PMCID: PMC8676577 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2021.104142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2021] [Revised: 09/02/2021] [Accepted: 11/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A tailored immunization program is deemed more successful in encouraging vaccination. Understanding the profiles of vaccine hesitancy constructs in nurses can help policymakers in devising such programs. Encouraging vaccination in nurses is an important step in building public confidence in the upcoming COVID-19 and influenza vaccination campaigns. OBJECTIVES Using a person-centered approach, this study aimed to reveal the profiles of the 5C psychological constructs of vaccine hesitancy (confidence, complacency, constraints, calculation, and collective responsibility) among Hong Kong nurses. DESIGN Cross-sectional online survey. SETTINGS With the promotion of a professional nursing organization, we invited Hong Kong nurses to complete an online survey between mid-March and late April 2020 during the COVID-19 outbreak. PARTICIPANTS 1,193 eligible nurses (mean age = 40.82, SD = 10.49; with 90.0% being female) were included in the analyses. METHODS In the online survey, we asked the invited nurses to report their demographics, COVID-19-related work demands (including the supply of personal protective equipment, work stress, and attitudes towards workplace infection control policies), the 5C vaccine hesitancy components, seasonal influenza vaccine uptake history, and the COVID-19 vaccine uptake intention. Latent profile analysis was employed to identify distinct vaccine hesitancy antecedent subgroups. RESULTS Results revealed five profiles, including "believers" (31%; high confidence, collective responsibility; low complacency, constraint), "skeptics" (11%; opposite to the believers), "outsiders" (14%; low calculation, collective responsibility), "contradictors" (4%; high in all 5C constructs), and "middlers" (40%; middle in all 5C constructs). Believers were less educated, reported more long-term illnesses, greater work stress, higher perceived personal protective equipment sufficiency, and stronger trust in government than skeptics. They were older and had higher perceived personal protective equipment sufficiency than middlers. Also, believers were older and had greater work stress than outsiders. From the highest to the lowest on vaccination uptake and intention were believers and contradictors, then middlers and outsiders, and finally skeptics. CONCLUSION Different immunization programs can be devised based on the vaccine hesitancy profiles and their predictors. Despite both profiles being low in vaccination uptake and intention, our results distinguished between outsiders and skeptics regarding their different levels of information-seeking engagement. The profile structure reveals the possibilities in devising tailored interventions based on their 5C characteristics. The current data could serve as the reference for the identification of individual profile membership and future profiling studies. Future endeavor is needed to examine the generalizability of the profile structure in other populations and across different study sites. Tweetable abstract: Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy profiles of Hong Kong nurses (believers, sceptics, outsiders, contradictors and middlers) highlight the importance of tailored vaccine campaigns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cyrus Lap Kwan Leung
- Department of Social and Behavioural Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Kin-Kit Li
- Department of Social and Behavioural Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
| | - Vivian Wan In Wei
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Arthur Tang
- College of Computing and Informatics, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Korea (the Republic of)
| | - Samuel Yeung Shan Wong
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Shui Shan Lee
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Kin On Kwok
- JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China; Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
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26
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Chejfec-Ciociano JM, Martínez-Herrera JP, Parra-Guerra AD, Chejfec R, Barbosa-Camacho FJ, Ibarrola-Peña JC, Cervantes-Guevara G, Cervantes-Cardona GA, Fuentes-Orozco C, Cervantes-Pérez E, García-Reyna B, González-Ojeda A. Misinformation About and Interest in Chlorine Dioxide During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mexico Identified Using Google Trends Data: Infodemiology Study. JMIR INFODEMIOLOGY 2022; 2:e29894. [PMID: 35155994 PMCID: PMC8805460 DOI: 10.2196/29894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2021] [Revised: 06/01/2021] [Accepted: 12/07/2021] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted the increasing popularity of several emerging therapies or preventives that lack scientific evidence or go against medical directives. One such therapy involves the consumption of chlorine dioxide, which is commonly used in the cleaning industry and is available commercially as a mineral solution. This substance has been promoted as a preventive or treatment agent for several diseases, including SARS-CoV-2 infection. As interest in chlorine dioxide has grown since the start of the pandemic, health agencies, institutions, and organizations worldwide have tried to discourage and restrict the consumption of this substance. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to analyze search engine trends in Mexico to evaluate changes in public interest in chlorine dioxide since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS We retrieved public query data for the Spanish equivalent of the term "chlorine dioxide" from the Google Trends platform. The location was set to Mexico, and the time frame was from March 3, 2019, to February 21, 2021. A descriptive analysis was performed. The Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn tests were used to identify significant changes in search volumes for this term between four consecutive time periods, each of 13 weeks, from March 1, 2020, to February 27, 2021. RESULTS From the start of the pandemic in Mexico (February 2020), an upward trend was observed in the number of searches compared with that in 2019. Maximum volume trends were recorded during the week of July 19-25, 2020. The search volumes declined between September and November 2020, but another peak was registered in December 2020 through February 2021, which reached a maximum value on January 10. Percentage change from the first to the fourth time periods was +312.85, -71.35, and +228.18, respectively. Pairwise comparisons using the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn tests showed significant differences between the four periods (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS Misinformation is a public health risk because it can lower compliance with the recommended measures and encourage the use of therapies that have not been proven safe. The ingestion of chlorine dioxide presents a danger to the population, and several adverse reactions have been reported. Programs should be implemented to direct those interested in this substance to accurate medical information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan Matias Chejfec-Ciociano
- Unidad de Investigación Biomédica 02 Hospital de Especialidades del Centro Médico Nacional de Occidente Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social Guadalajara Mexico
| | - Juan Pablo Martínez-Herrera
- Unidad de Investigación Biomédica 02 Hospital de Especialidades del Centro Médico Nacional de Occidente Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social Guadalajara Mexico
| | - Alexa Darianna Parra-Guerra
- Unidad de Investigación Biomédica 02 Hospital de Especialidades del Centro Médico Nacional de Occidente Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social Guadalajara Mexico
| | - Ricardo Chejfec
- Max Bell School of Public Policy McGill University Montreal, QC Canada
| | - Francisco José Barbosa-Camacho
- Unidad de Investigación Biomédica 02 Hospital de Especialidades del Centro Médico Nacional de Occidente Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social Guadalajara Mexico
| | - Juan Carlos Ibarrola-Peña
- Unidad de Investigación Biomédica 02 Hospital de Especialidades del Centro Médico Nacional de Occidente Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social Guadalajara Mexico
| | - Gabino Cervantes-Guevara
- Hospital Civil de Guadalajara "Fray Antonio Alcalde" Universidad de Guadalajara Guadalajara Mexico.,Departamento de Bienestar y Desarrollo Sustentable Centro Universitario del Norte Universidad de Guadalajara Colotlán Mexico
| | - Guillermo Alonso Cervantes-Cardona
- Departamento de Disciplinas Filosófico, Metodológicas e Instrumentales Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud Universidad de Guadalajara Guadalajara Mexico
| | - Clotilde Fuentes-Orozco
- Unidad de Investigación Biomédica 02 Hospital de Especialidades del Centro Médico Nacional de Occidente Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social Guadalajara Mexico
| | - Enrique Cervantes-Pérez
- Departamento de Nutriología Clínica Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición "Salvador Zubirán" Ciudad de Mexico Mexico
| | | | - Alejandro González-Ojeda
- Unidad de Investigación Biomédica 02 Hospital de Especialidades del Centro Médico Nacional de Occidente Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social Guadalajara Mexico
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27
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Trevino J, Malik S, Schmidt M. Integrating Google Trends Search Engine Query Data Into Adult Emergency Department Volume Forecasting: Infodemiology Study. JMIR INFODEMIOLOGY 2022; 2:e32386. [PMID: 37113800 PMCID: PMC10014085 DOI: 10.2196/32386] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2021] [Revised: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 12/07/2021] [Indexed: 04/29/2023]
Abstract
Background The search for health information from web-based resources raises opportunities to inform the service operations of health care systems. Google Trends search query data have been used to study public health topics, such as seasonal influenza, suicide, and prescription drug abuse; however, there is a paucity of literature using Google Trends data to improve emergency department patient-volume forecasting. Objective We assessed the ability of Google Trends search query data to improve the performance of adult emergency department daily volume prediction models. Methods Google Trends search query data related to chief complaints and health care facilities were collected from Chicago, Illinois (July 2015 to June 2017). We calculated correlations between Google Trends search query data and emergency department daily patient volumes from a tertiary care adult hospital in Chicago. A baseline multiple linear regression model of emergency department daily volume with traditional predictors was augmented with Google Trends search query data; model performance was measured using mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. Results There were substantial correlations between emergency department daily volume and Google Trends "hospital" (r=0.54), combined terms (r=0.50), and "Northwestern Memorial Hospital" (r=0.34) search query data. The final Google Trends data-augmented model included the predictors Combined 3-day moving average and Hospital 3-day moving average and performed better (mean absolute percentage error 6.42%) than the final baseline model (mean absolute percentage error 6.67%)-an improvement of 3.1%. Conclusions The incorporation of Google Trends search query data into an adult tertiary care hospital emergency department daily volume prediction model modestly improved model performance. Further development of advanced models with comprehensive search query terms and complementary data sources may improve prediction performance and could be an avenue for further research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jesus Trevino
- Department of Emergency Medicine The George Washington University School of Medicine & Health Sciences Washington, DC United States
| | - Sanjeev Malik
- Department of Emergency Medicine Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine Chicago, IL United States
| | - Michael Schmidt
- Department of Emergency Medicine Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine Chicago, IL United States
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28
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Cai O, Sousa-Pinto B. United States Influenza Search Patterns Since the Emergence of COVID-19: Infodemiology Study. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021; 8:e32364. [PMID: 34878996 PMCID: PMC8896565 DOI: 10.2196/32364] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2021] [Revised: 10/30/2021] [Accepted: 11/30/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The emergence and media coverage of COVID-19 may have affected influenza search patterns, possibly affecting influenza surveillance results using Google Trends. Objective We aimed to investigate if the emergence of COVID-19 was associated with modifications in influenza search patterns in the United States. Methods We retrieved US Google Trends data (relative number of searches for specified terms) for the topics influenza, Coronavirus disease 2019, and symptoms shared between influenza and COVID-19. We calculated the correlations between influenza and COVID-19 search data for a 1-year period after the first COVID-19 diagnosis in the United States (January 21, 2020 to January 20, 2021). We constructed a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model and compared predicted search volumes, using the 4 previous years, with Google Trends relative search volume data. We built a similar model for shared symptoms data. We also assessed correlations for the past 5 years between Google Trends influenza data, US Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention influenza-like illness data, and influenza media coverage data. Results We observed a nonsignificant weak correlation (ρ= –0.171; P=0.23) between COVID-19 and influenza Google Trends data. Influenza search volumes for 2020-2021 distinctly deviated from values predicted by seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models—for 6 weeks within the first 13 weeks after the first COVID-19 infection was confirmed in the United States, the observed volume of searches was higher than the upper bound of 95% confidence intervals for predicted values. Similar results were observed for shared symptoms with influenza and COVID-19 data. The correlation between Google Trends influenza data and CDC influenza-like-illness data decreased after the emergence of COVID-19 (2020-2021: ρ=0.643; 2019-2020: ρ=0.902), while the correlation between Google Trends influenza data and influenza media coverage volume remained stable (2020-2021: ρ=0.746; 2019-2020: ρ=0.707). Conclusions Relevant differences were observed between predicted and observed influenza Google Trends data the year after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Such differences are possibly due to media coverage, suggesting limitations to the use of Google Trends as a flu surveillance tool.
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Affiliation(s)
- Owen Cai
- Shadow Creek High School, Pearland, US
| | - Bernardo Sousa-Pinto
- MEDCIDS - Department of Community Medicine, Information and Health Decision Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Rua Plácido Costa s/n, Porto, PT.,CINTESIS - Center for Health Technologies and Services Research, University of Porto, Porto, PT
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29
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Pian W, Chi J, Ma F. The causes, impacts and countermeasures of COVID-19 "Infodemic": A systematic review using narrative synthesis. Inf Process Manag 2021; 58:102713. [PMID: 34720340 PMCID: PMC8545871 DOI: 10.1016/j.ipm.2021.102713] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2021] [Revised: 07/30/2021] [Accepted: 08/01/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
An unprecedented infodemic has been witnessed to create massive damage to human society. However, it was not thoroughly investigated. This systematic review aims to (1) synthesize the existing literature on the causes and impacts of COVID-19 infodemic; (2) summarize the proposed strategies to fight with COVID-19 infodemic; and (3) identify the directions for future research. A systematic literature search following the PRISMA guideline covering 12 scholarly databases was conducted to retrieve various types of peer-reviewed articles that reported causes, impacts, or countermeasures of the infodemic. Empirical studies were assessed for risk of bias using the Mixed-Methods Appraisal Tool. A coding theme was iteratively developed to categorize the causes, impacts, and countermeasures found from the included studies. Social media usage, low level of health/eHealth literacy, and fast publication process and preprint service are identified as the major causes of the infodemic. Besides, the vicious circle of human rumor-spreading behavior and the psychological issues from the public (e.g., anxiety, distress, fear) emerges as the characteristic of the infodemic. Comprehensive lists of countermeasures are summarized from different perspectives, among which risk communication and consumer health information need/seeking are of particular importance. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed and future research directions are suggested.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenjing Pian
- School of Economics & Management, Fuzhou University, 2 Xueyuan Road, Qishan Campus, Fuzhou City 350116
- Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, 315 Xihong Road, Fuzhou City 350025, China
| | - Jianxing Chi
- School of Communication, Fujian Normal University, 1 Keji Road, Qishan Campus, Fuzhou City, 350117, China
- School of Information Management, Wuhan University, 299 Bayi Road, Wuhan City 430072, China
| | - Feicheng Ma
- Center for Studies of Information Resources, Wuhan University, 299 Bayi Road, Wuhan City 430072, China
- Big Data Institute, Wuhan University, 299 Bayi Road, Wuhan City 430072, China
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30
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Elyashar A, Plochotnikov I, Cohen IC, Puzis R, Cohen O. The State of Mind of Health Care Professionals in Light of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Text Analysis Study of Twitter Discourses. J Med Internet Res 2021; 23:e30217. [PMID: 34550899 PMCID: PMC8544741 DOI: 10.2196/30217] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2021] [Revised: 07/08/2021] [Accepted: 07/23/2021] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has affected populations worldwide, with extreme health, economic, social, and political implications. Health care professionals (HCPs) are at the core of pandemic response and are among the most crucial factors in maintaining coping capacities. Yet, they are also vulnerable to mental health effects caused by managing a long-lasting emergency with a lack of resources and under complicated personal concerns. However, there are a lack of longitudinal studies that investigate the HCP population. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to analyze the state of mind of HCPs as expressed in online discussions published on Twitter in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, from the onset of the pandemic until the end of 2020. METHODS The population for this study was selected from followers of a few hundred Twitter accounts of health care organizations and common HCP points of interest. We used active learning, a process that iteratively uses machine learning and manual data labeling, to select the large-scale population of Twitter accounts maintained by English-speaking HCPs, focusing on individuals rather than official organizations. We analyzed the topics and emotions in their discourses during 2020. The topic distributions were obtained using the latent Dirichlet allocation algorithm. We defined a measure of topic cohesion and described the most cohesive topics. The emotions expressed in tweets during 2020 were compared to those in 2019. Finally, the emotion intensities were cross-correlated with the pandemic waves to explore possible associations between the pandemic development and emotional response. RESULTS We analyzed the timelines of 53,063 Twitter profiles, 90% of which were maintained by individual HCPs. Professional topics accounted for 44.5% of tweets by HCPs from January 1, 2019, to December 6, 2020. Events such as the pandemic waves, US elections, or the George Floyd case affected the HCPs' discourse. The levels of joy and sadness exceeded their minimal and maximal values from 2019, respectively, 80% of the time (P=.001). Most interestingly, fear preceded the pandemic waves, in terms of the differences in confirmed cases, by 2 weeks with a Spearman correlation coefficient of ρ(47 pairs)=0.340 (P=.03). CONCLUSIONS Analyses of longitudinal data over the year 2020 revealed that a large fraction of HCP discourse is directly related to professional content, including the increase in the volume of discussions following the pandemic waves. The changes in emotional patterns (ie, decrease in joy and increase in sadness, fear, and disgust) during the year 2020 may indicate the utmost importance in providing emotional support for HCPs to prevent fatigue, burnout, and mental health disorders during the postpandemic period. The increase in fear 2 weeks in advance of pandemic waves indicates that HCPs are in a position, and with adequate qualifications, to anticipate pandemic development, and could serve as a bottom-up pathway for expressing morbidity and clinical situations to health agencies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aviad Elyashar
- Software and Information Systems Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel
- Cyber@BGU, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel
| | - Ilia Plochotnikov
- Software and Information Systems Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel
- Cyber@BGU, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel
| | - Idan-Chaim Cohen
- School of Public Health, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel
| | - Rami Puzis
- Software and Information Systems Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel
- Cyber@BGU, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel
| | - Odeya Cohen
- Department of Nursing, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel
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31
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Ming WK, Huang F, Chen Q, Liang B, Jiao A, Liu T, Wu H, Akinwunmi B, Li J, Liu G, Zhang CJ, Huang J, Liu Q. Understanding Health Communication Through Google Trends and News Coverage for COVID-19: A Multinational Study in Eight Countries. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021; 7:e26644. [PMID: 34591781 PMCID: PMC8691414 DOI: 10.2196/26644] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/25/2020] [Revised: 04/01/2021] [Accepted: 09/18/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, health information related to COVID-19 has spread across news media worldwide. Google is among the most used internet search engines, and the Google Trends tool can reflect how the public seeks COVID-19–related health information during the pandemic. Objective The aim of this study was to understand health communication through Google Trends and news coverage and to explore their relationship with prevention and control of COVID-19 at the early epidemic stage. Methods To achieve the study objectives, we analyzed the public’s information-seeking behaviors on Google and news media coverage on COVID-19. We collected data on COVID-19 news coverage and Google search queries from eight countries (ie, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Singapore, Ireland, Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand) between January 1 and April 29, 2020. We depicted the characteristics of the COVID-19 news coverage trends over time, as well as the search query trends for the topics of COVID-19–related “diseases,” “treatments and medical resources,” “symptoms and signs,” and “public measures.” The search query trends provided the relative search volume (RSV) as an indicator to represent the popularity of a specific search term in a specific geographic area over time. Also, time-lag correlation analysis was used to further explore the relationship between search terms trends and the number of new daily cases, as well as the relationship between search terms trends and news coverage. Results Across all search trends in eight countries, almost all search peaks appeared between March and April 2020, and declined in April 2020. Regarding COVID-19–related “diseases,” in most countries, the RSV of the term “coronavirus” increased earlier than that of “covid-19”; however, around April 2020, the search volume of the term “covid-19” surpassed that of “coronavirus.” Regarding the topic “treatments and medical resources,” the most and least searched terms were “mask” and “ventilator,” respectively. Regarding the topic “symptoms and signs,” “fever” and “cough” were the most searched terms. The RSV for the term “lockdown” was significantly higher than that for “social distancing” under the topic “public health measures.” In addition, when combining search trends with news coverage, there were three main patterns: (1) the pattern for Singapore, (2) the pattern for the United States, and (3) the pattern for the other countries. In the time-lag correlation analysis between the RSV for the topic “treatments and medical resources” and the number of new daily cases, the RSV for all countries except Singapore was positively correlated with new daily cases, with a maximum correlation of 0.8 for the United States. In addition, in the time-lag correlation analysis between the overall RSV for the topic “diseases” and the number of daily news items, the overall RSV was positively correlated with the number of daily news items, the maximum correlation coefficient was more than 0.8, and the search behavior occurred 0 to 17 days earlier than the news coverage. Conclusions Our findings revealed public interest in masks, disease control, and public measures, and revealed the potential value of Google Trends in the face of the emergence of new infectious diseases. Also, Google Trends combined with news media can achieve more efficient health communication. Therefore, both news media and Google Trends can contribute to the early prevention and control of epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wai-Kit Ming
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China, Guangzhou, CN
| | - Fengqiu Huang
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China, Guangzhou, CN
| | - Qiuyi Chen
- School of Journalism and Communication, National Media Experimental Teaching Demonstration Center (Jinan University), Jinan University, Guangzhou, China, Guangzhou, CN
| | - Beiting Liang
- College of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China, Guangzhou, CN
| | - Aoao Jiao
- College of Economic and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, China, Nanjing, CN
| | - Taoran Liu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China, Guangzhou, CN
| | - Huailiang Wu
- Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China, Guangzhou, CN
| | - Babatunde Akinwunmi
- Center for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH), Boston, AM
| | - Jia Li
- International School, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China, Guangzhou, CN
| | - Guan Liu
- Faculty of Computer Centre, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China, Guangzhou, CN
| | - Casper Jp Zhang
- School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China, Hong Kong, HK
| | - Jian Huang
- MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom, London, GB
| | - Qian Liu
- Communication Department, University of Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY United States, School of Journalism and Communication, National Media Experimental Teaching Demonstration Center (Jinan University), Jinan University, Guangzhou, China, 601 Huangpu Dadao West, Guangzhou City, China, Guangzhou, CN
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Simonart T, Lam Hoai XL, De Maertelaer V. Epidemiologic evolution of common cutaneous infestations and arthropod bites: A Google Trends analysis. JAAD Int 2021; 5:69-75. [PMID: 34505090 PMCID: PMC8416960 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdin.2021.08.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Common cutaneous infestations and arthropod bites are not reportable conditions in most countries. Their worldwide epidemiologic evolution and distribution are mostly unknown. Objective To explore the evolution and geographic distribution of common cutaneous infestations and arthropod bites through an analysis of Google Trends. Methods Search trends from 2004 through March 2021 for common cutaneous infestations and arthropod bites were extracted from Google Trends, quantified, and analyzed. Results Time series decomposition showed that total search term volume for pubic lice decreased worldwide over the study period, while the interest for ticks, pediculosis, insect bites, scabies, lice, and bed bugs increased (in increasing order). The interest for bed bugs was more pronounced in the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics countries, interest for lice in Near East and Middle East countries, and interest for pubic lice in South American countries. Internet searches for bed bugs, insect bites, and ticks exhibited the highest seasonal patterns. Limitations Retrospective analysis limits interpretation. Conclusion Surveillance systems based on Google Trends may enhance the timeliness of traditional surveillance systems and suggest that, while most cutaneous infestations increase worldwide, pubic lice may be globally declining.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thierry Simonart
- Department of Dermatology, Delta Hospital, Centre Hospitalier Interrégional Edith Cavell, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Xuân-Lan Lam Hoai
- Department of Dermatology, St Pierre - Brugmann - Hôpital Universitaire Des Enfants Reine Fabiola University Hospitals, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
| | - Viviane De Maertelaer
- Department of Biostatistics, Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Biologie Humaine et Moléculaire, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium
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Paramita ML, Orphanou K, Christoforou E, Otterbacher J, Hopfgartner F. Do you see what I see? Images of the COVID-19 pandemic through the lens of Google. Inf Process Manag 2021; 58:102654. [PMID: 36567975 PMCID: PMC9759662 DOI: 10.1016/j.ipm.2021.102654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2020] [Revised: 05/19/2021] [Accepted: 05/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
During times of crisis, information access is crucial. Given the opaque processes behind modern search engines, it is important to understand the extent to which the "picture" of the Covid-19 pandemic accessed by users differs. We explore variations in what users "see" concerning the pandemic through Google image search, using a two-step approach. First, we crowdsource a search task to users in four regions of Europe, asking them to help us create a photo documentary of Covid-19 by providing image search queries. Analysing the queries, we find five common themes describing information needs. Next, we study three sources of variation - users' information needs, their geo-locations and query languages - and analyse their influences on the similarity of results. We find that users see the pandemic differently depending on where they live, as evidenced by the 46% similarity across results. When users expressed a given query in different languages, there was no overlap for most of the results. Our analysis suggests that localisation plays a major role in the (dis)similarity of results, and provides evidence of the diverse "picture" of the pandemic seen through Google.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Jahna Otterbacher
- Open University of Cyprus, Cyprus
- CYENS - Centre of Excellence, Nicosia, Cyprus
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Wei S, Ma M, Wen X, Wu C, Zhu G, Zhou X. Online Public Attention Toward Premature Ejaculation in Mainland China: Infodemiology Study Using the Baidu Index. J Med Internet Res 2021; 23:e30271. [PMID: 34435970 PMCID: PMC8430863 DOI: 10.2196/30271] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2021] [Revised: 07/05/2021] [Accepted: 07/05/2021] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Premature ejaculation (PE) is one of the most described psychosocial stress and sexual complaints worldwide. Previous investigations have focused predominantly on the prospective identification of cases that meet researchers' specific criteria. The genuine demand from patients with regard to information on PE and related issues may thus be neglected. OBJECTIVE This study aims to examine the online search trend and user demand related to PE on a national and regional scale using the dominant major search engine in mainland China. METHODS The Baidu Index was queried using the PE-related terms for the period of January 2011 to December 2020. The search volume for each term was recorded to analyze the search trend and demographic distributions. For user interest, the demand and trend data were collected and analyzed. RESULTS Of the 36 available PE search keywords, 4 PE searching topics were identified. The Baidu Search Index for each PE topic varied from 46.30% (86,840,487/187,558,154) to 6.40% (12,009,307/187,558,154). The annual percent change (APC) for the complaint topic was 48.80% (P<.001) for 2011 to 2014 and -16.82% (P<.001) for 2014 to 2020. The APC for the inquiry topic was 16.21% (P=.41) for 2011 to 2014 and -11.00% (P<.001) for 2014 to 2020. For the prognosis topic, the annual APC was 11.18% (P<.001) for 2011 to 2017 and -19.86% (P<.001) for 2017 to 2020. For the treatment topic, the annual APC was 14.04% (P<.001) for 2011 to 2016 and -38.83% (P<.001) for 2016 to 2020. The age distribution of those searching for topics related to PE showed that the population aged 20 to 40 years comprised nearly 70% of the total search inquiries (second was 17.95% in the age group younger than 19 years). People from East China made over 50% of the total search queries. CONCLUSIONS The fluctuating online popularity of PE searches reflects the real-time population demands. It may help medical professionals better understand population interest, population concerns, regional variations, and gender differences on a nationwide scale and make disease-specific health care policies. The internet search data could be more reliable when the insufficient and lagging registry data are completed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shanzun Wei
- Department of Urology, The Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Ming Ma
- Department of Urology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Xi Wen
- Andrology Laboratory, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Changjing Wu
- Andrology Laboratory, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Guonian Zhu
- Institutes for Systems Genetics, Frontiers Science Center for Disease-Related Molecular Network, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Xiangfu Zhou
- Department of Urology, The Third Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
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Tozzi AE, Gesualdo F, Urbani E, Sbenaglia A, Ascione R, Procopio N, Croci I, Rizzo C. Digital Surveillance Through an Online Decision Support Tool for COVID-19 Over One Year of the Pandemic in Italy: Observational Study. J Med Internet Res 2021; 23:e29556. [PMID: 34292866 PMCID: PMC8366755 DOI: 10.2196/29556] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2021] [Revised: 07/14/2021] [Accepted: 07/18/2021] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Italy has experienced severe consequences (ie, hospitalizations and deaths) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Online decision support systems (DSS) and self-triage applications have been used in several settings to supplement health authority recommendations to prevent and manage COVID-19. A digital Italian health tech startup, Paginemediche, developed a noncommercial, online DSS with a chat user interface to assist individuals in Italy manage their potential exposure to COVID-19 and interpret their symptoms since early in the pandemic. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to compare the trend in online DSS sessions with that of COVID-19 cases reported by the national health surveillance system in Italy, from February 2020 to March 2021. METHODS We compared the number of sessions by users with a COVID-19-positive contact and users with COVID-19-compatible symptoms with the number of cases reported by the national surveillance system. To calculate the distance between the time series, we used the dynamic time warping algorithm. We applied Symbolic Aggregate approXimation (SAX) encoding to the time series in 1-week periods. We calculated the Hamming distance between the SAX strings. We shifted time series of online DSS sessions 1 week ahead. We measured the improvement in Hamming distance to verify the hypothesis that online DSS sessions anticipate the trends in cases reported to the official surveillance system. RESULTS We analyzed 75,557 sessions in the online DSS; 65,207 were sessions by symptomatic users, while 19,062 were by contacts of individuals with COVID-19. The highest number of online DSS sessions was recorded early in the pandemic. Second and third peaks were observed in October 2020 and March 2021, respectively, preceding the surge in notified COVID-19 cases by approximately 1 week. The distance between sessions by users with COVID-19 contacts and reported cases calculated by dynamic time warping was 61.23; the distance between sessions by symptomatic users was 93.72. The time series of users with a COVID-19 contact was more consistent with the trend in confirmed cases. With the 1-week shift, the Hamming distance between the time series of sessions by users with a COVID-19 contact and reported cases improved from 0.49 to 0.46. We repeated the analysis, restricting the time window to between July 2020 and December 2020. The corresponding Hamming distance was 0.16 before and improved to 0.08 after the time shift. CONCLUSIONS Temporal trends in the number of online COVID-19 DSS sessions may precede the trend in reported COVID-19 cases through traditional surveillance. The trends in sessions by users with a contact with COVID-19 may better predict reported cases of COVID-19 than sessions by symptomatic users. Data from online DSS may represent a useful supplement to traditional surveillance and support the identification of early warning signals in the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alberto Eugenio Tozzi
- Multifactorial and Complex Diseases Research Area, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Francesco Gesualdo
- Multifactorial and Complex Diseases Research Area, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | | | | | | | | | - Ileana Croci
- Multifactorial and Complex Diseases Research Area, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Caterina Rizzo
- Clinical Pathways and Epidemiology Unit, Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital IRCCS, Rome, Italy
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Satpathy P, Kumar S, Prasad P. Suitability of Google Trends™ for Digital Surveillance During Ongoing COVID-19 Epidemic: A Case Study from India. Disaster Med Public Health Prep 2021; 17:e28. [PMID: 34343467 PMCID: PMC8460424 DOI: 10.1017/dmp.2021.249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2020] [Revised: 05/03/2021] [Accepted: 07/24/2021] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Digital surveillance has shown mixed results as a supplement to traditional surveillance. Google Trends™ (GT) (Google, Mountain View, CA, United States) has been used for digital surveillance of H1N1, Ebola and MERS. We used GT to correlate the information seeking on COVID-19 with number of tests and cases in India. METHODS Data was obtained on daily tests and cases from WHO, ECDC and covid19india.org. We used a comprehensive search strategy to retrieve GT data on COVID-19 related information-seeking behavior in India between January 1 and May 31, 2020 in the form of relative search volume (RSV). We also used time-lag correlation analysis to assess the temporal relationships between RSV and daily new COVID-19 cases and tests. RESULTS GT RSV showed high time-lag correlation with both daily reported tests and cases for the terms "COVID 19," "COVID," "social distancing," "soap," and "lockdown" at the national level. In 5 high-burden states, high correlation was observed for these 5 terms along with "Corona." Peaks in RSV, both at the national level and in high-burden states corresponded with media coverage or government declarations on the ongoing pandemic. CONCLUSION The correlation observed between GT data and COVID-19 tests/cases in India may be either due to media-coverage-induced curiosity, or health-seeking curiosity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Parmeshwar Satpathy
- Department of Community Medicine, Veer Surendra Sai Institute of Medical Sciences and Research, Burla, Odisha, India
| | - Sanjeev Kumar
- Department of Community and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, India
| | - Pankaj Prasad
- Department of Community and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, India
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Gabarron E, Rivera-Romero O, Miron-Shatz T, Grainger R, Denecke K. Role of Participatory Health Informatics in Detecting and Managing Pandemics: Literature Review. Yearb Med Inform 2021; 30:200-209. [PMID: 33882600 PMCID: PMC8432992 DOI: 10.1055/s-0041-1726486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Using participatory health informatics (PHI) to detect disease outbreaks or learn about pandemics has gained interest in recent years. However, the role of PHI in understanding and managing pandemics, citizens' role in this context, and which methods are relevant for collecting and processing data are still unclear, as is which types of data are relevant. This paper aims to clarify these issues and explore the role of PHI in managing and detecting pandemics. METHODS Through a literature review we identified studies that explore the role of PHI in detecting and managing pandemics. Studies from five databases were screened: PubMed, CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature), IEEE Xplore, ACM (Association for Computing Machinery) Digital Library, and Cochrane Library. Data from studies fulfilling the eligibility criteria were extracted and synthesized narratively. RESULTS Out of 417 citations retrieved, 53 studies were included in this review. Most research focused on influenza-like illnesses or COVID-19 with at least three papers on other epidemics (Ebola, Zika or measles). The geographic scope ranged from global to concentrating on specific countries. Multiple processing and analysis methods were reported, although often missing relevant information. The majority of outcomes are reported for two application areas: crisis communication and detection of disease outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS For most diseases, the small number of studies prevented reaching firm conclusions about the utility of PHI in detecting and monitoring these disease outbreaks. For others, e.g., COVID-19, social media and online search patterns corresponded to disease patterns, and detected disease outbreak earlier than conventional public health methods, thereby suggesting that PHI can contribute to disease and pandemic monitoring.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elia Gabarron
- Norwegian Centre for E-health Research, University Hospital of North Norway, Troms⊘, Norway
| | | | - Talya Miron-Shatz
- Faculty of Business Administration, Ono Academic College, Israel
- Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, Cambridge University, England
| | - Rebecca Grainger
- Department of Medicine, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Kerstin Denecke
- Institute for Medical Informatics, Bern University of Applied Sciences, Bern, Switzerland
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Sato K, Mano T, Iwata A, Toda T. Need of care in interpreting Google Trends-based COVID-19 infodemiological study results: potential risk of false-positivity. BMC Med Res Methodol 2021; 21:147. [PMID: 34275447 PMCID: PMC8286439 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-021-01338-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2021] [Accepted: 06/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Google Trends (GT) is being used as an epidemiological tool to study coronavirus disease (COVID-19) by identifying keywords in search trends that are predictive for the COVID-19 epidemiological burden. However, many of the earlier GT-based studies include potential statistical fallacies by measuring the correlation between non-stationary time sequences without adjusting for multiple comparisons or the confounding of media coverage, leading to concerns about the increased risk of obtaining false-positive results. In this study, we aimed to apply statistically more favorable methods to validate the earlier GT-based COVID-19 study results. METHODS We extracted the relative GT search volume for keywords associated with COVID-19 symptoms, and evaluated their Granger-causality to weekly COVID-19 positivity in eight English-speaking countries and Japan. In addition, the impact of media coverage on keywords with significant Granger-causality was further evaluated using Japanese regional data. RESULTS Our Granger causality-based approach largely decreased (by up to approximately one-third) the number of keywords identified as having a significant temporal relationship with the COVID-19 trend when compared to those identified by Pearson or Spearman's rank correlation-based approach. "Sense of smell" and "loss of smell" were the most reliable GT keywords across all the evaluated countries; however, when adjusted with their media coverage, these keyword trends did not Granger-cause the COVID-19 positivity trends (in Japan). CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that some of the search keywords reported as candidate predictive measures in earlier GT-based COVID-19 studies may potentially be unreliable; therefore, caution is necessary when interpreting published GT-based study results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kenichiro Sato
- Department of Neurology, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
| | - Tatsuo Mano
- Department of Neurology, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Atsushi Iwata
- Department of Neurology, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
- Department of Neurology, Tokyo Metropolitan Geriatric Medical Center Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
| | - Tatsushi Toda
- Department of Neurology, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
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Husnayain A, Chuang TW, Fuad A, Su ECY. High variability in model performance of Google relative search volumes in spatially clustered COVID-19 areas of the USA. Int J Infect Dis 2021; 109:269-278. [PMID: 34273513 PMCID: PMC8922685 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2021.07.031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2021] [Revised: 06/22/2021] [Accepted: 07/11/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective: Incorporating spatial analyses and online health information queries may be beneficial in understanding the role of Google relative search volume (RSV) data as a secondary public health surveillance tool during pandemics. This study identified coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) clustering and defined the predictability performance of Google RSV models in clustered and non-clustered areas of the USA. Methods: Getis-Ord General and local G statistics were used to identify monthly clustering patterns. Monthly country- and state-level correlations between new daily COVID-19 cases and Google RSVs were assessed using Spearman's rank correlation coefficients and Poisson regression models for January–December 2020. Results: Huge clusters involving multiple states were found, which resulted from various control measures in each state. This demonstrates the importance of state-to-state coordination in implementing control measures to tackle the spread of outbreaks. Variability in Google RSV model performance was found among states and time periods, possibly suggesting the need to use different frameworks for Google RSV data in each state. Moreover, the sign of correlation can be utilized to understand public responses to control and preventive measures, as well as in communicating risk. Conclusion: COVID-19 Google RSV model accuracy in the USA may be influenced by COVID-19 transmission dynamics, policy-driven community awareness and past outbreak experiences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Atina Husnayain
- Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, College of Medical Science and Technology, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Population Health, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | - Ting-Wu Chuang
- Department of Molecular Parasitology and Tropical Diseases, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Anis Fuad
- Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Population Health, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
| | - Emily Chia-Yu Su
- Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, College of Medical Science and Technology, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Clinical Big Data Research Centre, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
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SeyyedHosseini S, BasirianJahromi R. COVID-19 pandemic in the Middle East countries: coronavirus-seeking behavior versus coronavirus-related publications. Scientometrics 2021; 126:7503-7523. [PMID: 34276108 PMCID: PMC8272609 DOI: 10.1007/s11192-021-04066-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/04/2020] [Accepted: 05/28/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
The spread of COVID-19 has created a fundamental need for coordinated mechanisms responding to outbreaks in different sectors. One of the main sectors relates to information supply and demand in the middle of this pandemic in the digital environment. It could be called an infodemiology. It is known as a promising approach to solving the challenge in the present age. At this level, the purpose of this article is to investigate the COVID-19 related search process by field research. Data were retrieved from Google Trends in Middle Eastern countries alongside scientific research output of Middle Eastern scientists towards COVID-19 in Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed. Daily COVID-19 cases and deaths were retrieved from the World Health Organization. We searched for descriptive statistical analyses to detect coronavirus-seeking behavior versus coronavirus releases in the Middle East in 2020. Findings show that people in the Middle East use various keyword solutions to search for COVID-19 in Google. There is a significant correlation between coronavirus confirmed cases and scientific productivity (January 2020-December 2020). Also, there is a positive association between the number of deaths and the number of scientific publications (except Jordan). It was a positive and significant association between online coronavirus-seeking behavior on Google (RSVs) and the confirmed cases (except Syria and Yemen). Furthermore, it was a positive relationship between RSVs and scientific productivity in the Middle East (except Bahrain and Qatar). From an infodemiological viewpoint, there is a significant correlation between coronavirus information demand and its information provision.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shohreh SeyyedHosseini
- Department of Medical Library and Information Science, Bushehr University of Medical Sciences, Bushehr, Iran
| | - Reza BasirianJahromi
- Department of Medical Library and Information Science, Bushehr University of Medical Sciences, Bushehr, Iran
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Sousa-Pinto B, Halonen JI, Antó A, Jormanainen V, Czarlewski W, Bedbrook A, Papadopoulos NG, Freitas A, Haahtela T, Antó JM, Fonseca JA, Bousquet J. Prediction of Asthma Hospitalizations for the Common Cold Using Google Trends: Infodemiology Study. J Med Internet Res 2021; 23:e27044. [PMID: 34255692 PMCID: PMC8292933 DOI: 10.2196/27044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2021] [Revised: 03/04/2021] [Accepted: 03/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In contrast to air pollution and pollen exposure, data on the occurrence of the common cold are difficult to incorporate in models predicting asthma hospitalizations. OBJECTIVE This study aims to assess whether web-based searches on common cold would correlate with and help to predict asthma hospitalizations. METHODS We analyzed all hospitalizations with a main diagnosis of asthma occurring in 5 different countries (Portugal, Spain, Finland, Norway, and Brazil) for a period of approximately 5 years (January 1, 2012-December 17, 2016). Data on web-based searches on common cold were retrieved from Google Trends (GT) using the pseudo-influenza syndrome topic and local language search terms for common cold for the same countries and periods. We applied time series analysis methods to estimate the correlation between GT and hospitalization data. In addition, we built autoregressive models to forecast the weekly number of asthma hospitalizations for a period of 1 year (June 2015-June 2016) based on admissions and GT data from the 3 previous years. RESULTS In time series analyses, GT data on common cold displayed strong correlations with asthma hospitalizations occurring in Portugal (correlation coefficients ranging from 0.63 to 0.73), Spain (ρ=0.82-0.84), and Brazil (ρ=0.77-0.83) and moderate correlations with those occurring in Norway (ρ=0.32-0.35) and Finland (ρ=0.44-0.47). Similar patterns were observed in the correlation between forecasted and observed asthma hospitalizations from June 2015 to June 2016, with the number of forecasted hospitalizations differing on average between 12% (Spain) and 33% (Norway) from observed hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS Common cold-related web-based searches display moderate-to-strong correlations with asthma hospitalizations and may be useful in forecasting them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bernardo Sousa-Pinto
- MEDCIDS - Department of Community Medicine, Information and Health Decision Sciences; Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.,CINTESIS - Center for Health Technology and Services Research; University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Jaana I Halonen
- Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Vesa Jormanainen
- Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Wienczyslawa Czarlewski
- MASK-air, Montpellier, France.,Medical Consulting Czarlewski, Levallois, France.,MACVIA-France, Montpellier, France
| | - Anna Bedbrook
- MASK-air, Montpellier, France.,MACVIA-France, Montpellier, France
| | - Nikolaos G Papadopoulos
- Allergy Department, 2nd Pediatric Clinic, Athens General Children's Hospital "P&A Kyriakou", University of Athens, Athens, Greece.,Division of Infection, Immunity & Respiratory Medicine, Royal Manchester Children's Hospital, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Alberto Freitas
- MEDCIDS - Department of Community Medicine, Information and Health Decision Sciences; Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.,CINTESIS - Center for Health Technology and Services Research; University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Tari Haahtela
- Skin and Allergy Hospital, Helsinki University Hospital, and University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Josep M Antó
- ISGlobal, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain.,Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain.,IMIM - Hospital del Mar Medical Research Institute, Barcelona, Spain.,CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública - CIBERESP, Barcelona, Spain
| | - João Almeida Fonseca
- MEDCIDS - Department of Community Medicine, Information and Health Decision Sciences; Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal.,CINTESIS - Center for Health Technology and Services Research; University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Jean Bousquet
- MACVIA-France, Montpellier, France.,Charité, Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.,Comprehensive Allergy Center, Department of Dermatology and Allergy, Berlin Institute of Health, Berlin, Germany.,University Hospital, Montpellier, France
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42
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Rotter D, Doebler P, Schmitz F. Interests, Motives, and Psychological Burdens in Times of Crisis and Lockdown: Google Trends Analysis to Inform Policy Makers. J Med Internet Res 2021; 23:e26385. [PMID: 33999837 PMCID: PMC8171287 DOI: 10.2196/26385] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2020] [Revised: 01/26/2021] [Accepted: 04/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the German government and the 16 German federal states implemented a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to decelerate the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and thus prevent a collapse of the health care system. These measures comprised, among others, social distancing, the temporary closure of shops and schools, and a ban of large public gatherings and meetings with people not living in the same household. OBJECTIVE It is fair to assume that the issued NPIs have heavily affected social life and psychological functioning. We therefore aimed to examine possible effects of this lockdown in conjunction with daily new infections and the state of the national economy on people's interests, motives, and other psychological states. METHODS We derived 249 keywords from the Google Trends database, tapping into 27 empirically and rationally selected psychological domains. To overcome issues with reliability and specificity of individual indicator variables, broad factors were derived by means of time series factor analysis. All domains were subjected to a change point analysis and time series regression analysis with infection rates, NPIs, and the state of the economy as predictors. All keywords and analyses were preregistered prior to analysis. RESULTS With the pandemic arriving in Germany, significant increases in people's search interests were observed in virtually all domains. Although most of the changes were short-lasting, each had a distinguishable onset during the lockdown period. Regression analysis of the Google Trends data confirmed pronounced autoregressive effects for the investigated variables, while forecasting by means of the tested predictors (ie, daily new infections, NPIs, and the state of economy) was moderate at best. CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that people's interests, motives, and psychological states are heavily affected in times of crisis and lockdown. Specifically, disease- and virus-related domains (eg, pandemic disease, symptoms) peaked early, whereas personal health strategies (eg, masks, homeschooling) peaked later during the lockdown. Domains addressing social life and psychosocial functioning showed long-term increases in public interest. Renovation was the only domain to show a decrease in search interest with the onset of the lockdown. As changes in search behavior are consistent over multiple domains, a Google Trends analysis may provide information for policy makers on how to adapt and develop intervention, information, and prevention strategies, especially when NPIs are in effect.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dominik Rotter
- Department of Psychology, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
| | - Philipp Doebler
- Statistical Methods in Social Sciences, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany
| | - Florian Schmitz
- Department of Psychology, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany
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43
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Rovetta A. Reliability of Google Trends: Analysis of the Limits and Potential of Web Infoveillance During COVID-19 Pandemic and for Future Research. Front Res Metr Anal 2021; 6:670226. [PMID: 34113751 PMCID: PMC8186442 DOI: 10.3389/frma.2021.670226] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2021] [Accepted: 05/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Alongside the COVID-19 pandemic, government authorities around the world have had to face a growing infodemic capable of causing serious damages to public health and economy. In this context, the use of infoveillance tools has become a primary necessity. Objective: The aim of this study is to test the reliability of a widely used infoveillance tool which is Google Trends. In particular, the paper focuses on the analysis of relative search volumes (RSVs) quantifying their dependence on the day they are collected. Methods: RSVs of the query coronavirus + covid during February 1-December 4, 2020 (period 1), and February 20-May 18, 2020 (period 2), were collected daily by Google Trends from December 8 to 27, 2020. The survey covered Italian regions and cities, and countries and cities worldwide. The search category was set to all categories. Each dataset was analyzed to observe any dependencies of RSVs from the day they were gathered. To do this, by calling i the country, region, or city under investigation and j the day its RSV was collected, a Gaussian distributionX i = X ( σ i , x ¯ i ) was used to represent the trend of daily variations ofx i j = R S V s i j . When a missing value was revealed (anomaly), the affected country, region or city was excluded from the analysis. When the anomalies exceeded 20% of the sample size, the whole sample was excluded from the statistical analysis. Pearson and Spearman correlations between RSVs and the number of COVID-19 cases were calculated day by day thus to highlight any variations related to the day RSVs were collected. Welch's t-test was used to assess the statistical significance of the differences between the average RSVs of the various countries, regions, or cities of a given dataset. Two RSVs were considered statistical confident when t < 1.5 . A dataset was deemed unreliable if the confident data exceeded 20% (confidence threshold). The percentage increase Δ was used to quantify the difference between two values. Results: Google Trends has been subject to an acceptable quantity of anomalies only as regards the RSVs of Italian regions (0% in both periods 1 and 2) and countries worldwide (9.7% during period 1 and 10.9% during period 2). However, the correlations between RSVs and COVID-19 cases underwent significant variations even in these two datasets ( M a x | Δ | = + 625 % for Italian regions, and M a x | Δ | = + 175 % for countries worldwide). Furthermore, only RSVs of countries worldwide did not exceed confidence threshold. Finally, the large amount of anomalies registered in Italian and international cities' RSVs made these datasets unusable for any kind of statistical inference. Conclusion: In the considered timespans, Google Trends has proved to be reliable only for surveys concerning RSVs of countries worldwide. Since RSVs values showed a high dependence on the day they were gathered, it is essential for future research that the authors collect queries' data for several consecutive days and work with their RSVs averages instead of daily RSVs, trying to minimize the standard errors until an established confidence threshold is respected. Further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this method.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alessandro Rovetta
- Research and Disclosure Division, Mensana srls, Brescia, Italy
- Technological and Scientific Research, Redeev srl, Napoli, Italy
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44
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Meng J, Su Q, Zhang J, Wang L, Xu R, Yan C. Epidemics, Public Sentiment, and Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility. Front Public Health 2021; 9:686870. [PMID: 34055733 PMCID: PMC8160087 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.686870] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2021] [Accepted: 04/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: This article studies the relationship between the COVID-19 epidemic, public sentiment, and the volatility of infectious disease equities from the perspective of the United States. We use weekly data from January 3, 2020 to March 7, 2021. This provides a sufficient dataset for empirical analysis. Granger causality test results prove the two-way relationship between the fluctuation of infectious disease equities and confirmed cases. In addition, confirmed cases will cause the public to search for COVID-19 tests, and COVID-19 tests will also cause fluctuations in infectious disease equities, but there is no reverse correlation. The results of this research are useful to investors and policy makers. Investors can use the number of confirmed cases to predict the volatility of infectious disease equities. Similarly, policy makers can use the intervention of retrieved information to stabilize public sentiment and equity market fluctuations, and integrate a variety of information to make more scientific judgments on the trends of the epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinxia Meng
- Jiaxing Vocational and Technical College, Jiaxing, China
| | - Qingyi Su
- Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jinhua Zhang
- School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, China
| | - Li Wang
- School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, China
| | - Ruihui Xu
- Research Institute of the People's Bank of China (PBC), Beijing, China
| | - Cheng Yan
- School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, China
- Essex Business School, University of Essex, Colchester, United Kingdom
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45
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Fang J, Zhang X, Tong Y, Xia Y, Liu H, Wu K. Baidu Index and COVID-19 Epidemic Forecast: Evidence From China. Front Public Health 2021; 9:685141. [PMID: 34026721 PMCID: PMC8131679 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.685141] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2021] [Accepted: 04/07/2021] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
With the global spread of the Coronavirus epidemic, search engine data can be a practical tool for decision-makers to understand the epidemic's trends. This article uses trend analysis data from the Baidu search engine, the most widely used in China, to analyze the public's attention to the epidemic and the demand for N95 masks and other anti-epidemic materials and information. This kind of analysis has become an important part of information epidemiology. We have analyzed the use of the keywords "Coronavirus epidemic," "N95 mask," and "Wuhan epidemic" to judge whether the introduction of real-time search data has improved the efficiency of the Coronavirus epidemic prediction model. In general, the introduction of the Baidu index, whether in-sample or out-of-sample, significantly improves the prediction efficiency of the model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianchun Fang
- School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xinyi Zhang
- School of Accounting, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing, China
| | - Yang Tong
- School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yuxin Xia
- School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, China
| | - Hui Liu
- School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Keke Wu
- School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China
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46
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Mangono T, Smittenaar P, Caplan Y, Huang VS, Sutermaster S, Kemp H, Sgaier SK. Information-Seeking Patterns During the COVID-19 Pandemic Across the United States: Longitudinal Analysis of Google Trends Data. J Med Internet Res 2021; 23:e22933. [PMID: 33878015 PMCID: PMC8095345 DOI: 10.2196/22933] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2020] [Revised: 11/18/2020] [Accepted: 04/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted people’s lives at unprecedented speed and scale, including how they eat and work, what they are concerned about, how much they move, and how much they can earn. Traditional surveys in the area of public health can be expensive and time-consuming, and they can rapidly become outdated. The analysis of big data sets (such as electronic patient records and surveillance systems) is very complex. Google Trends is an alternative approach that has been used in the past to analyze health behaviors; however, most existing studies on COVID-19 using these data examine a single issue or a limited geographic area. This paper explores Google Trends as a proxy for what people are thinking, needing, and planning in real time across the United States. Objective We aimed to use Google Trends to provide both insights into and potential indicators of important changes in information-seeking patterns during pandemics such as COVID-19. We asked four questions: (1) How has information seeking changed over time? (2) How does information seeking vary between regions and states? (3) Do states have particular and distinct patterns in information seeking? (4) Do search data correlate with—or precede—real-life events? Methods We analyzed searches on 38 terms related to COVID-19, falling into six themes: social and travel; care seeking; government programs; health programs; news and influence; and outlook and concerns. We generated data sets at the national level (covering January 1, 2016, to April 15, 2020) and state level (covering January 1 to April 15, 2020). Methods used include trend analysis of US search data; geographic analyses of the differences in search popularity across US states from March 1 to April 15, 2020; and principal component analysis to extract search patterns across states. Results The data showed high demand for information, corresponding with increasing searches for coronavirus linked to news sources regardless of the ideological leaning of the news source. Changes in information seeking often occurred well in advance of action by the federal government. The popularity of searches for unemployment claims predicted the actual spike in weekly claims. The increase in searches for information on COVID-19 care was paralleled by a decrease in searches related to other health behaviors, such as urgent care, doctor’s appointments, health insurance, Medicare, and Medicaid. Finally, concerns varied across the country; some search terms were more popular in some regions than in others. Conclusions COVID-19 is unlikely to be the last pandemic faced by the United States. Our research holds important lessons for both state and federal governments in a fast-evolving situation that requires a finger on the pulse of public sentiment. We suggest strategic shifts for policy makers to improve the precision and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and recommend the development of a real-time dashboard as a decision-making tool.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Yael Caplan
- Surgo Ventures, Washington, DC, United States
| | | | | | - Hannah Kemp
- Surgo Ventures, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Sema K Sgaier
- Surgo Ventures, Washington, DC, United States.,Department of Global Health & Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States.,Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
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47
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Sandhu A, Hany R, Hirohata A, Hishita S, Kimlicka K, Naito M, Nishimura C. Global snapshot of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the research activities of materials scientists between Spring and Autumn 2020. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF ADVANCED MATERIALS 2021; 22:173-184. [PMID: 33967627 PMCID: PMC8079126 DOI: 10.1080/14686996.2021.1894756] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
We conducted a global survey on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the research activities of materials scientists by distributing a questionnaire on 9 October 2020 with a response deadline of 23 October 2020. The questions covered issues such as access to labs, effectiveness of online conferences, and effects on doctoral students for the period covering the first lockdowns until the relaxation of restrictions in late September 2020 in many countries. The survey also included online interviews with eminent materials scientists who shared their local experiences during this period. The interviews were compiled as a series of audio conversations for The STAM Podcast that is freely available worldwide. Our findings included that the majority of institutes were not prepared for such a crisis; researchers in China, Japan, and Singapore were able to resume research much quicker - for example after approximately one month in Japan - than their counterparts in the US and Europe after the first lockdowns; researchers adapted to using virtual teleconferencing to maintain contact with colleagues; and doctoral students were the hardest hit by the pandemic with deep concerns about completing their research and career prospects. We hope that the analysis from this survey will enable the global materials science community to learn from each other's experiences and move forward from the unprecedented circumstances created by the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adarsh Sandhu
- Department of Engineering Science, Graduate School of Information and Engineering, University of Electro-Communications, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Roland Hany
- Lab for Functional Polymers, Empa, Dübendorf, Switzerland
| | | | - Shunichi Hishita
- Materials Data Platform Center, Publishing Team, Research and Services Division of Materials Data and Integrated System, NIMS, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Ken Kimlicka
- Global Head of Portfolio, Taylor & Francis, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Masanobu Naito
- Data-driven Polymer Design Group, Research and Services Division of Materials Data and Integrated System, NIMS, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Chikashi Nishimura
- Materials Data Platform Center, Publishing Team, Research and Services Division of Materials Data and Integrated System, NIMS, Tsukuba, Japan
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48
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Chrzanowski J, Sołek J, Fendler W, Jemielniak D. Assessing Public Interest Based on Wikipedia's Most Visited Medical Articles During the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak: Search Trends Analysis. J Med Internet Res 2021; 23:e26331. [PMID: 33667176 PMCID: PMC8049630 DOI: 10.2196/26331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2020] [Revised: 01/21/2021] [Accepted: 02/18/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In the current era of widespread access to the internet, we can monitor public interest in a topic via information-targeted web browsing. We sought to provide direct proof of the global population’s altered use of Wikipedia medical knowledge resulting from the new COVID-19 pandemic and related global restrictions. Objective We aimed to identify temporal search trends and quantify changes in access to Wikipedia Medicine Project articles that were related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We performed a retrospective analysis of medical articles across nine language versions of Wikipedia and country-specific statistics for registered COVID-19 deaths. The observed patterns were compared to a forecast model of Wikipedia use, which was trained on data from 2015 to 2019. The model comprehensively analyzed specific articles and similarities between access count data from before (ie, several years prior) and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Wikipedia articles that were linked to those directly associated with the pandemic were evaluated in terms of degrees of separation and analyzed to identify similarities in access counts. We assessed the correlation between article access counts and the number of diagnosed COVID-19 cases and deaths to identify factors that drove interest in these articles and shifts in public interest during the subsequent phases of the pandemic. Results We observed a significant (P<.001) increase in the number of entries on Wikipedia medical articles during the pandemic period. The increased interest in COVID-19–related articles temporally correlated with the number of global COVID-19 deaths and consistently correlated with the number of region-specific COVID-19 deaths. Articles with low degrees of separation were significantly similar (P<.001) in terms of access patterns that were indicative of information-seeking patterns. Conclusions The analysis of Wikipedia medical article popularity could be a viable method for epidemiologic surveillance, as it provides important information about the reasons behind public attention and factors that sustain public interest in the long term. Moreover, Wikipedia users can potentially be directed to credible and valuable information sources that are linked with the most prominent articles.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jędrzej Chrzanowski
- Department of Biostatistics and Translational Medicine, Medical University of Łódź, Łódź, Poland
| | - Julia Sołek
- Department of Biostatistics and Translational Medicine, Medical University of Łódź, Łódź, Poland.,Department of Pathology, Medical University of Łódź, Łódź, Poland
| | - Wojciech Fendler
- Department of Biostatistics and Translational Medicine, Medical University of Łódź, Łódź, Poland
| | - Dariusz Jemielniak
- Management in Networked and Digital Societies, Kozminski University, Warszawa, Poland
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49
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El-Toukhy S. Insights From the SmokeFree.gov Initiative Regarding the Use of Smoking Cessation Digital Platforms During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cross-sectional Trends Analysis Study. J Med Internet Res 2021; 23:e24593. [PMID: 33646963 PMCID: PMC7986806 DOI: 10.2196/24593] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2020] [Revised: 12/31/2020] [Accepted: 02/19/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Smoking is a plausible risk factor for COVID-19 progression and complications. Smoking cessation digital platforms transcend pandemic-driven social distancing and lockdown measures in terms of assisting smokers in their quit attempts. OBJECTIVE This study aims to examine trends in the number of visitors, followers, and subscribers on smoking cessation digital platforms from January to April 2020 and to compare these traffic data to those observed during the same 4-month period in 2019. The examination of prepandemic and postpandemic trends in smoking cessation digital platform traffic can reveal whether interest in smoking cessation among smokers is attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS We obtained cross-sectional data from daily visitors on the SmokeFree website; the followers of six SmokeFree social media accounts; and subscribers to the SmokeFree SMS text messaging and mobile app interventions of the National Cancer Institute's SmokeFree.gov initiative platforms, which are publicly available to US smokers. Average daily percentage changes (ADPCs) were used to measure trends for the entire 2020 and 2019 study periods, whereas daily percentage changes (DPCs) were used to measure trends for each time segment of change within each 4-month period. Data analysis was conducted in May and June 2020. RESULTS The number of new daily visitors on the SmokeFree website (between days 39 and 44: DPC=18.79%; 95% CI 5.16% to 34.19%) and subscribers to the adult-focused interventions QuitGuide (between days 11 and 62: DPC=1.11%; 95% CI 0.80% to 1.43%) and SmokeFreeTXT (between days 11 and 89: DPC=0.23%; 95% CI 0.004% to 0.47%) increased, but this was followed by declines in traffic. No comparable peaks were observed in 2019. The number of new daily subscribers to quitSTART (ie, the teen-focused intervention) trended downward in 2020 (ADPC=-1.02%; 95% CI -1.88% to -0.15%), whereas the overall trend in the number of subscribers in 2019 was insignificant (P=.07). The number of SmokeFree social media account followers steadily increased by <0.1% over the 4-month study periods in 2019 and 2020. CONCLUSIONS Peaks in traffic on the SmokeFree website and adult-focused intervention platforms in 2020 could be attributed to an increased interest in smoking cessation among smokers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Coordinated campaigns, especially those for adolescents, should emphasize the importance of smoking cessation as a preventive measure against SARS-CoV-2 infection and raise awareness of digital smoking cessation platforms to capitalize on smokers' heightened interest during the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sherine El-Toukhy
- Division of Intramural Research, National Institute on Minority Health & Health Disparities, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States
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50
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Pilz AC, Tizek L, Rüth M, Seiringer P, Biedermann T, Zink A. Interest in Sexually Transmitted Infections: Analysis of Web Search Data Terms in Eleven Large German Cities from 2015 to 2019. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:ijerph18052771. [PMID: 33803324 PMCID: PMC7975972 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18052771] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/24/2020] [Revised: 02/28/2021] [Accepted: 03/04/2021] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
Incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) such as chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis has increased in recent years in the US and in European countries. In order to implement effective educational programs, the interests of target populations have to be identified. Since the internet is an important source of information-gathering on health issues, this study investigates web search data in large German cities related to STIs. Google Ads Keyword Planner was used to identify STI-related terms and their search volume in eleven German cities from June 2015 to May 2019. The data obtained were analyzed descriptively with regard to total search volumes, search volumes of specific thematic areas, and search volumes per 100,000 inhabitants. Overall, 741 terms with a total search volume of 5,142,560 queries were identified, with more than 70% of all search queries including a specific disease and “chlamydia” being the overall most often searched term (n = 1,196,160). Time courses of search behavior displayed a continuous interest in STIs with synchronal and national rather than regional peaks. Volumes of search queries lacked periodic patterns. Based on the findings of this study, a more open public discussion about STIs with linkage to increased media coverage and clarification of responsibilities among all STI-treating disciplines concerning management of STIs seem advisable.
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