The Twitter Social Mobility Index: Measuring Social Distancing Practices With Geolocated Tweets

A conceptional model integrating geographic information systems (GIS) and social media data for disease exposure assessment

Although previous studies have acknowledged the potential of geographic information systems (GIS) and social media data (SMD) in assessment of exposure to various environmental risks, none has presented a simple, effective and user-friendly tool. This study introduces a conceptual model that integrates individual mobility patterns extracted from social media, with the geographic footprints of infectious diseases and other environmental agents utilizing GIS. The efficacy of the model was independently evaluated for selected case studies involving lead in the ground; particulate matter in the air; and an infectious, viral disease (COVID- 19). A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed as the final output of this study. Overall, the evaluation of the model demonstrated feasibility in successfully extracting individual mobility patterns, identifying potential exposure sites and quantifying the frequency and magnitude of exposure. Importantly, the novelty of the developed model lies not merely in its efficiency in integrating GIS and SMD for exposure assessment, but also in considering the practical requirements of health practitioners. Although the conceptual model, developed together with its associated GUI, presents a promising and practical approach to assessment of the exposure to environmental risks discussed here, its applicability, versatility and efficacy extends beyond the case studies presented in this study.

A Snapshot of COVID-19 Vaccine Discourse Related to Ethnic Minority Communities in the United Kingdom Between January and April 2022: Mixed Methods Analysis

BACKGROUND

Existing literature highlights the role of social media as a key source of information for the public during the COVID-19 pandemic and its influence on vaccination attempts. Yet there is little research exploring its role in the public discourse specifically among ethnic minority communities, who have the highest rates of vaccine hesitancy (delay or refusal of vaccination despite availability of services).

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to understand the discourse related to minority communities on social media platforms Twitter and YouTube.

METHODS

Social media data from the United Kingdom was extracted from Twitter and YouTube using the software Netlytics and YouTube Data Tools to provide a "snapshot" of the discourse between January and April 2022. A mixed method approach was used where qualitative data were contextualized into codes. Network analysis was applied to provide insight into the most frequent and weighted keywords and topics of conversations.

RESULTS

A total of 260 tweets and 156 comments from 4 YouTube videos were included in our analysis. Our data suggests that the most popular topics of conversation during the period sampled were related to communication strategies adopted during the booster vaccine rollout. These were noted to be divisive in nature and linked to wider conversations around racism and historical mistrust toward institutions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests a shift in narrative from concerns about the COVID-19 vaccine itself, toward the strategies used in vaccination implementation, in particular the targeting of ethnic minority groups through vaccination campaigns. The implications for public health communication during crisis management in a pandemic context include acknowledging wider experiences of discrimination when addressing ethnic minority communities.

Systematic literature review on impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding measures on mobility

The unprecedented COVID-19 outbreak has significantly influenced our daily life, and COVID-19's spread is inevitably associated with human mobility. Given the pandemic's severity and extent of spread, a timely and comprehensive synthesis of the current state of research is needed to understand the pandemic's impact on human mobility and corresponding government measures. This study examined the relevant literature published to the present (March 2023), identified research trends, and conducted a systematic review of evidence regarding transport's response to COVID-19. We identified key research agendas and synthesized the results, examining: (1) mobility changes by transport modes analyzed regardless of government policy implementation, using empirical data and survey data; (2) the effect of diverse government interventions to reduce mobility and limit COVID-19 spread, and controversial issues on travel restriction policy effects; and (3) future research issues. The findings showed a strong relationship between the pandemic and mobility, with significant impacts on decreased overall mobility, a remarkable drop in transit ridership, changes in travel behavior, and improved traffic safety. Government implemented various non-pharmaceutical countermeasures, such as city lockdowns, travel restrictions, and social distancing. Many studies showed such interventions were effective. However, some researchers reported inconsistent outcomes. This review provides urban and transport planners with valuable insights to facilitate better preparation for future health emergencies that affect transportation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11116-023-10392-2.

Was it really different? COVID-19-pandemic period in long-term recreation monitoring - A case study from Polish forests

The COVID -19 pandemic posed serious challenge for securing public health worldwide. Public health preparedness and restrictions put in place impacted many aspects of human life, including recreational activities and access to outdoor recreational destinations. Green spaces have become one of the few sources of resilience during the coronavirus crisis due to their restorative effects on psychophysical health and community well-being. The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of the COVID -19 pandemic on forest visitation. The results are based upon long-term visitor data acquired via pyroelectric sensors (Eco-Counter) in three forest districts located in Poland (Browsk, Gdansk & Kozienice Forest Districts). The analysis covers the period between January 01, 2019 and December 31, 2020 and the results confirm changes in recreational use in the studied forest areas during the pandemic compared to the preceding year. However, observed changes in forest visitation vary by pandemic period and study area. The ban on access to forest areas significantly reduced the number of forest visits in all studied areas. The number of visits to sub-urban forests (Gdansk Forest District) and to remote nature-based tourist destinations (Browsk Forest District) increased in the later pandemic periods, especially in the summer months of 2020, while it remained the same in a popular nearby recreation area: Kozienice Forest District. There were only minor temporal shifts in the distribution of weekly and daily visits. The results are important for public health preparedness planning in crisis situations and for provisioning conditions supporting societal health and well-being. Objective data on forest visits are necessary for successful management of forest areas and surrounding amenities. More cross-sector collaboration and public participation would be desirable to create sustainable, resilient, and liveable spaces for the society.

Management Implications

•Long-term visitation monitoring is crucial for successful management of outdoor recreation destinations and their catchment areas.•Objective numbers concerning forest visitation from the pre-pandemic and COVID-19 pandemic period allow observing trends and making fact-based management decisions during period of crisis.•Changes in the investigated three forest study areas in Poland were not homogenous, which implies the necessity of systematic visitor monitoring in multiple destinations, in order to cover different types of forest areas and also local diversity in recreational use.•More intersectoral, interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary exchange would be desirable to better integrate existing on-site visitor monitoring data into decision making processes related to forest management, urban planning, transportation, tourism and public health.

Cyber-Physical-Social Awareness Platform for Comprehensive Situation Awareness

Cyber-physical-social computing system integrates the interactions between cyber, physical, and social spaces by fusing information from these spaces. The result of this fusion can be used to drive many applications in areas such as intelligent transportation, smart cities, and healthcare. Situation Awareness was initially used in military services to provide knowledge of what is happening in a combat zone but has been used in many other areas such as disaster mitigation. Various applications have been developed to provide situation awareness using either IoT sensors or social media information spaces and, more recently, using both IoT sensors and social media information spaces. The information from these spaces is heterogeneous and, at their intersection, is sparse. In this paper, we propose a highly scalable, novel Cyber-physical-social Awareness (CPSA) platform that provides situation awareness by using and intersecting information from both IoT sensors and social media. By combining and fusing information from both social media and IoT sensors, the CPSA platform provides more comprehensive and accurate situation awareness than any other existing solutions that rely only on data from social media and IoT sensors. The CPSA platform achieves that by semantically describing and integrating the information extracted from sensors and social media spaces and intersects this information for enriching situation awareness. The CPSA platform uses user-provided situation models to refine and intersect cyber, physical, and social information. The CPSA platform analyses social media and IoT data using pretrained machine learning models deployed in the cloud, and provides coordination between information sources and fault tolerance. The paper describes the implementation and evaluation of the CPSA platform. The evaluation of the CPSA platform is measured in terms of capabilities such as the ability to semantically describe and integrate heterogenous information, fault tolerance, and time constraints such as processing time and throughput when performing real-world experiments. The evaluation shows that the CPSA platform can reliably process and intersect with large volumes of IoT sensor and social media data to provide enhanced situation awareness.

Using geospatial social media data for infectious disease studies: a systematic review

Geospatial social media (GSM) data has been increasingly used in public health due to its rich, timely, and accessible spatial information, particularly in infectious disease research. This review synthesized 86 research articles that use GSM data in infectious diseases published between December 2013 and March 2022. These articles cover 12 infectious disease types ranging from respiratory infectious diseases to sexually transmitted diseases with spatial levels varying from the neighborhood, county, state, and country. We categorized these studies into three major infectious disease research domains: surveillance, explanation, and prediction. With the assistance of advanced statistical and spatial methods, GSM data has been widely and deeply applied to these domains, particularly in surveillance and explanation domains. We further identified four knowledge gaps in terms of contextual information use, application scopes, spatiotemporal dimension, and data limitations and proposed innovation opportunities for future research. Our findings will contribute to a better understanding of using GSM data in infectious diseases studies and provide insights into strategies for using GSM data more effectively in future research.

Nowcasting unemployment rate during the COVID-19 pandemic using Twitter data: The case of South Africa

The global economy has been hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many countries are experiencing a severe and destructive recession. A significant number of firms and businesses have gone bankrupt or been scaled down, and many individuals have lost their jobs. The main goal of this study is to support policy- and decision-makers with additional and real-time information about the labor market flow using Twitter data. We leverage the data to trace and nowcast the unemployment rate of South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic. First, we create a dataset of unemployment-related tweets using certain keywords. Principal Component Regression (PCR) is then applied to nowcast the unemployment rate using the gathered tweets and their sentiment scores. Numerical results indicate that the volume of the tweets has a positive correlation, and the sentiments of the tweets have a negative correlation with the unemployment rate during and before the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the now-casted unemployment rate using PCR has an outstanding evaluation result with a low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Symmetric MAPE (SMAPE) of 0.921, 0.018, 0.018, respectively and a high R²-score of 0.929.

Improving Situation Awareness via a Situation Model-Based Intersection of IoT Sensor and Social Media Information Spaces

Existing techniques for distilling situation awareness currently focus on information harvested from either IoT sensors or social media. While the benefits of fusing information from these two distinct information spaces for achieving enhanced situation awareness are well understood, existing techniques and related systems for fusing the IoT sensors and social media information spaces are currently embryonic. Key challenges in intersecting, combining, and fusing these information spaces to distil high-value situation awareness include devising situation models and related techniques for filtering, integrating, and fusing sparse and heterogeneous IoT sensor data and social media postings to provide a richer and more accurate situation awareness. This paper proposes novel, semantically based techniques fusing social media and IoT sensor information spaces and a comprehensive, fully implemented system that utilizes these to provide enhanced situation awareness. More specifically, this paper proposes the design of semantic-based situation models for fusing sensor and social media information spaces and presents techniques for finding similarities across these information spaces and fusing social media posting and IoT sensor data to generate an enhanced situation awareness. Furthermore, the paper presents the design and implementation of a complete system that uses the proposed models and techniques and uses that in an experimental evaluation that illustrates improvements in situation awareness from fusing the IoT sensor and social media information spaces.

Social media mining under the COVID-19 context: Progress, challenges, and opportunities

Social media platforms allow users worldwide to create and share information, forging vast sensing networks that allow information on certain topics to be collected, stored, mined, and analyzed in a rapid manner. During the COVID-19 pandemic, extensive social media mining efforts have been undertaken to tackle COVID-19 challenges from various perspectives. This review summarizes the progress of social media data mining studies in the COVID-19 contexts and categorizes them into six major domains, including early warning and detection, human mobility monitoring, communication and information conveying, public attitudes and emotions, infodemic and misinformation, and hatred and violence. We further document essential features of publicly available COVID-19 related social media data archives that will benefit research communities in conducting replicable and reproducible studies. In addition, we discuss seven challenges in social media analytics associated with their potential impacts on derived COVID-19 findings, followed by our visions for the possible paths forward in regard to social media-based COVID-19 investigations. This review serves as a valuable reference that recaps social media mining efforts in COVID-19 related studies and provides future directions along which the information harnessed from social media can be used to address public health emergencies.

Using Social Media to Predict Food Deserts in the United States: Infodemiology Study of Tweets

BACKGROUND

The issue of food insecurity is becoming increasingly important to public health practitioners because of the adverse health outcomes and underlying racial disparities associated with insufficient access to healthy foods. Prior research has used data sources such as surveys, geographic information systems, and food store assessments to identify regions classified as food deserts but perhaps the individuals in these regions unknowingly provide their own accounts of food consumption and food insecurity through social media. Social media data have proved useful in answering questions related to public health; therefore, these data are a rich source for identifying food deserts in the United States.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop, from geotagged Twitter data, a predictive model for the identification of food deserts in the United States using the linguistic constructs found in food-related tweets.

METHODS

Twitter's streaming application programming interface was used to collect a random 1% sample of public geolocated tweets across 25 major cities from March 2020 to December 2020. A total of 60,174 geolocated food-related tweets were collected across the 25 cities. Each geolocated tweet was mapped to its respective census tract using point-to-polygon mapping, which allowed us to develop census tract-level features derived from the linguistic constructs found in food-related tweets, such as tweet sentiment and average nutritional value of foods mentioned in the tweets. These features were then used to examine the associations between food desert status and the food ingestion language and sentiment of tweets in a census tract and to determine whether food-related tweets can be used to infer census tract-level food desert status.

RESULTS

We found associations between a census tract being classified as a food desert and an increase in the number of tweets in a census tract that mentioned unhealthy foods (P=.03), including foods high in cholesterol (P=.02) or low in key nutrients such as potassium (P=.01). We also found an association between a census tract being classified as a food desert and an increase in the proportion of tweets that mentioned healthy foods (P=.03) and fast-food restaurants (P=.01) with positive sentiment. In addition, we found that including food ingestion language derived from tweets in classification models that predict food desert status improves model performance compared with baseline models that only include socioeconomic characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Social media data have been increasingly used to answer questions related to health and well-being. Using Twitter data, we found that food-related tweets can be used to develop models for predicting census tract food desert status with high accuracy and improve over baseline models. Food ingestion language found in tweets, such as census tract-level measures of food sentiment and healthiness, are associated with census tract-level food desert status.

Public Attitudes During the Second Lockdown: Sentiment and Topic Analyses Using Tweets From Ontario, Canada

Objective: This study aimed to explore topics and sentiments using tweets from Ontario, Canada, during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: Tweets were collected from December 5, 2020, to March 6, 2021, excluding non-individual accounts. Dates of vaccine-related events and policy changes were collected from public health units in Ontario. The daily number of COVID-19 cases was retrieved from the Ontario provincial government’s public health database. Latent Dirichlet Allocation was used for unsupervised topic modelling. VADER was used to calculate daily and average sentiment compound scores for topics identified.

Results: Vaccine, pandemic, business, lockdown, mask, and Ontario were six topics identified from the unsupervised topic modelling. The average sentiment compound score for each topic appeared to be slightly positive, yet the daily sentiment compound scores varied greatly between positive and negative emotions for each topic.

Conclusion: Our study results have shown a slightly positive sentiment on average during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, along with six topics. Our research has also demonstrated a social listening approach to identify what the public sentiments and opinions are in a timely manner.

A high-resolution temporal and geospatial content analysis of Twitter posts related to the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has deeply impacted all aspects of social, professional, and financial life, with concerns and responses being readily published in online social media worldwide. This study employs probabilistic text mining techniques for a large-scale, high-resolution, temporal, and geospatial content analysis of Twitter related discussions. Analysis considered 20,230,833 English language original COVID-19-related tweets with global origin retrieved between January 25, 2020 and April 30, 2020. Fine grain topic analysis identified 91 meaningful topics. Most of the topics showed a temporal evolution with local maxima, underlining the short-lived character of discussions in Twitter. When compared to real-world events, temporal popularity curves showed a good correlation with and quick response to real-world triggers. Geospatial analysis of topics showed that approximately 30% of original English language tweets were contributed by USA-based users, while overall more than 60% of the English language tweets were contributed by users from countries with an official language other than English. High-resolution temporal and geospatial analysis of Twitter content shows potential for political, economic, and social monitoring on a global and national level.

Emerging geo-data sources to reveal human mobility dynamics during COVID-19 pandemic: opportunities and challenges

Effectively monitoring the dynamics of human mobility is of great importance in urban management, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Traditionally, the human mobility data is collected by roadside sensors, which have limited spatial coverage and are insufficient in large-scale studies. With the maturing of mobile sensing and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, various crowdsourced data sources are emerging, paving the way for monitoring and characterizing human mobility during the pandemic. This paper presents the authors’ opinions on three types of emerging mobility data sources, including mobile device data, social media data, and connected vehicle data. We first introduce each data source’s main features and summarize their current applications within the context of tracking mobility dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, we discuss the challenges associated with using these data sources. Based on the authors’ research experience, we argue that data uncertainty, big data processing problems, data privacy, and theory-guided data analytics are the most common challenges in using these emerging mobility data sources. Last, we share experiences and opinions on potential solutions to address these challenges and possible research directions associated with acquiring, discovering, managing, and analyzing big mobility data.

The State of Mind of Health Care Professionals in Light of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Text Analysis Study of Twitter Discourses

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected populations worldwide, with extreme health, economic, social, and political implications. Health care professionals (HCPs) are at the core of pandemic response and are among the most crucial factors in maintaining coping capacities. Yet, they are also vulnerable to mental health effects caused by managing a long-lasting emergency with a lack of resources and under complicated personal concerns. However, there are a lack of longitudinal studies that investigate the HCP population.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to analyze the state of mind of HCPs as expressed in online discussions published on Twitter in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, from the onset of the pandemic until the end of 2020.

METHODS

The population for this study was selected from followers of a few hundred Twitter accounts of health care organizations and common HCP points of interest. We used active learning, a process that iteratively uses machine learning and manual data labeling, to select the large-scale population of Twitter accounts maintained by English-speaking HCPs, focusing on individuals rather than official organizations. We analyzed the topics and emotions in their discourses during 2020. The topic distributions were obtained using the latent Dirichlet allocation algorithm. We defined a measure of topic cohesion and described the most cohesive topics. The emotions expressed in tweets during 2020 were compared to those in 2019. Finally, the emotion intensities were cross-correlated with the pandemic waves to explore possible associations between the pandemic development and emotional response.

RESULTS

We analyzed the timelines of 53,063 Twitter profiles, 90% of which were maintained by individual HCPs. Professional topics accounted for 44.5% of tweets by HCPs from January 1, 2019, to December 6, 2020. Events such as the pandemic waves, US elections, or the George Floyd case affected the HCPs' discourse. The levels of joy and sadness exceeded their minimal and maximal values from 2019, respectively, 80% of the time (P=.001). Most interestingly, fear preceded the pandemic waves, in terms of the differences in confirmed cases, by 2 weeks with a Spearman correlation coefficient of ρ(47 pairs)=0.340 (P=.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Analyses of longitudinal data over the year 2020 revealed that a large fraction of HCP discourse is directly related to professional content, including the increase in the volume of discussions following the pandemic waves. The changes in emotional patterns (ie, decrease in joy and increase in sadness, fear, and disgust) during the year 2020 may indicate the utmost importance in providing emotional support for HCPs to prevent fatigue, burnout, and mental health disorders during the postpandemic period. The increase in fear 2 weeks in advance of pandemic waves indicates that HCPs are in a position, and with adequate qualifications, to anticipate pandemic development, and could serve as a bottom-up pathway for expressing morbidity and clinical situations to health agencies.

Public Sentiment and Discourse on Domestic Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Australia: Analysis of Social Media Posts

BACKGROUND

Measuring public response during COVID-19 is an important way of ensuring the suitability and effectiveness of epidemic response efforts. An analysis of social media provides an approximation of public sentiment during an emergency like the current pandemic. The measures introduced across the globe to help curtail the spread of the coronavirus have led to the development of a situation labeled as a "perfect storm," triggering a wave of domestic violence. As people use social media to communicate their experiences, analyzing public discourse and sentiment on social platforms offers a way to understand concerns and issues related to domestic violence during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

This study was based on an analysis of public discourse and sentiment related to domestic violence during the stay-at-home periods of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia in 2020. It aimed to understand the more personal self-reported experiences, emotions, and reactions toward domestic violence that were not always classified or collected by official public bodies during the pandemic.

METHODS

We searched social media and news posts in Australia using key terms related to domestic violence and COVID-19 during 2020 via digital analytics tools to determine sentiments related to domestic violence during this period.

RESULTS

The study showed that the use of sentiment and discourse analysis to assess social media data is useful in measuring the public expression of feelings and sharing of resources in relation to the otherwise personal experience of domestic violence. There were a total of 63,800 posts across social media and news media. Within these posts, our analysis found that domestic violence was mentioned an average of 179 times a day. There were 30,100 tweets, 31,700 news reports, 1500 blog posts, 548 forum posts, and 7 comments (posted on news and blog websites). Negative or neutral sentiment centered on the sharp rise in domestic violence during different lockdown periods of the 2020 pandemic, and neutral and positive sentiments centered on praise for efforts that raised awareness of domestic violence as well as the positive actions of domestic violence charities and support groups in their campaigns. There were calls for a positive and proactive handling (rather than a mishandling) of the pandemic, and results indicated a high level of public discontent related to the rising rates of domestic violence and the lack of services during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided a timely understanding of public sentiment related to domestic violence during the COVID-19 lockdown periods in Australia using social media analysis. Social media represents an important avenue for the dissemination of information; posts can be widely dispersed and easily accessed by a range of different communities who are often difficult to reach. An improved understanding of these issues is important for future policy direction. Heightened awareness of this could help agencies tailor and target messaging to maximize impact.

Word embeddings and deep learning for location prediction: tracking Coronavirus from British and American tweets

With the propagation of the Coronavirus pandemic, current trends on determining its individual and societal impacts become increasingly important. Recent researches grant special attention to the Coronavirus social networks infodemic to study such impacts. For this aim, we think that applying a geolocation process is crucial before proceeding to the infodemic management. In fact, the spread of reported events and actualities on social networks makes the identification of infected areas or locations of the information owners more challenging especially at a state level. In this paper, we focus on linguistic features to encode regional variations from short and noisy texts such as tweets to track this disease. We pay particular attention to contextual information for a better encoding of these features. We refer to some neural network-based models to capture relationships between words according to their contexts. Being examples of these models, we evaluate some word embedding ones to determine the most effective features’ combination that has more spatial evidence. Then, we ensure a sequential modeling of words for a better understanding of contextual information using recurrent neural networks. Without defining restricted sets of local words in relation to the Coronavirus disease, our framework called DeepGeoloc demonstrates its ability to geolocate both tweets and twitterers. It also makes it possible to capture geosemantics of nonlocal words and to delimit the sparse use of local ones particularly in retweets and reported events. Compared to some baselines, DeepGeoloc achieved competitive results. It also proves its scalability to handle large amounts of data and to geolocate new tweets even those describing new topics in relation to this disease.

Analysis of Geotagging Behavior: Do Geotagged Users Represent the Twitter Population?

Twitter’s APIs are now the main data source for social media researchers. A large number of studies have utilized Twitter data for diverse research interests. Twitter users can share their precise real-time location, and Twitter APIs can provide this information as longitude and latitude. These geotagged Twitter data can help to study human activities and movements for different applications. Compared to the mostly small-scale data samples in different domains, such as social science, collecting geotagged data offers large samples. There is a fundamental question whether geotagged users can represent non-geotagged users. While some studies have investigated the question from different perspectives, they did not investigate profile information and the contents of tweets of geotagged and non-geotagged users. This empirical study addresses this limitation by applying text mining, statistical analysis, and machine learning techniques on Twitter data comprising more than 88,000 users and over 170 million tweets. Our findings show that there is a significant difference (p-value < 0.001) between geotagged and non-geotagged users based on 73% of the features obtained from the users’ profiles and tweets. The features can also help to distinguish between geotagged and non-geotagged users with around 80% accuracy. This research illustrates that geotagged users do not represent the Twitter population.

Digital Phenotypes for Understanding Individuals' Compliance With COVID-19 Policies and Personalized Nudges: Longitudinal Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Governments promote behavioral policies such as social distancing and phased reopening to control the spread of COVID-19. Digital phenotyping helps promote the compliance with these policies through the personalized behavioral knowledge it produces.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated the value of smartphone-derived digital phenotypes in (1) analyzing individuals' compliance with COVID-19 policies through behavioral responses and (2) suggesting ways to personalize communication through those policies.

METHODS

We conducted longitudinal experiments that started before the outbreak of COVID-19 and continued during the pandemic. A total of 16 participants were recruited before the pandemic, and a smartphone sensing app was installed for each of them. We then assessed individual compliance with COVID-19 policies and their impact on habitual behaviors.

RESULTS

Our results show a significant change in people's mobility (P<.001) as a result of COVID-19 regulations, from an average of 10 visited places every week to approximately 2 places a week. We also discussed our results within the context of nudges used by the National Health Service in the United Kingdom to promote COVID-19 regulations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that digital phenotyping has substantial value in understanding people's behavior during a pandemic. Behavioral features extracted from digital phenotypes can facilitate the personalization of and compliance with behavioral policies. A rule-based messaging system can be implemented to deliver nudges on the basis of digital phenotyping.

Responding to a Pandemic: COVID-19 Projects in the Malone Center

As the scope and scale of the COVID-19 pandemic became clear in early March of 2020, the faculty of the Malone Center engaged in several projects aimed at addressing both immediate and long-term implications of COVID-19. In this article, we briefly outline the processes that we engaged in to identify areas of need, the projects that emerged, and the results of those projects. As we write, some of these projects have reached a natural termination point, whereas others continue. We identify some of the factors that led to projects that moved to implementation, as well as factors that led projects to fail to progress or to be abandoned.

Evolving Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19 in Hong Kong From January to August 2020: Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has plagued the globe, with multiple SARS-CoV-2 clusters hinting at its evolving epidemiology. Since the disease course is governed by important epidemiological parameters, including containment delays (time between symptom onset and mandatory isolation) and serial intervals (time between symptom onsets of infector-infectee pairs), understanding their temporal changes helps to guide interventions.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to characterize the epidemiology of the first two epidemic waves of COVID-19 in Hong Kong by doing the following: (1) estimating the containment delays, serial intervals, effective reproductive number (Rt), and proportion of asymptomatic cases; (2) identifying factors associated with the temporal changes of the containment delays and serial intervals; and (3) depicting COVID-19 transmission by age assortativity and types of social settings.

METHODS

We retrieved the official case series and the Apple mobility data of Hong Kong from January-August 2020. The empirical containment delays and serial intervals were fitted to theoretical distributions, and factors associated with their temporal changes were quantified in terms of percentage contribution (the percentage change in the predicted outcome from multivariable regression models relative to a predefined comparator). Rt was estimated with the best fitted distribution for serial intervals.

RESULTS

The two epidemic waves were characterized by imported cases and clusters of local cases, respectively. Rt peaked at 2.39 (wave 1) and 3.04 (wave 2). The proportion of asymptomatic cases decreased from 34.9% (0-9 years) to 12.9% (≥80 years). Log-normal distribution best fitted the 1574 containment delays (mean 5.18 [SD 3.04] days) and the 558 serial intervals (17 negative; mean 4.74 [SD 4.24] days). Containment delays decreased with involvement in a cluster (percentage contribution: 10.08%-20.73%) and case detection in the public health care sector (percentage contribution: 27.56%, 95% CI 22.52%-32.33%). Serial intervals decreased over time (6.70 days in wave 1 versus 4.35 days in wave 2) and with tertiary transmission or beyond (percentage contribution: -50.75% to -17.31%), but were lengthened by mobility (percentage contribution: 0.83%). Transmission within the same age band was high (18.1%). Households (69.9%) and social settings (20.3%) were where transmission commonly occurred.

CONCLUSIONS

First, the factors associated with reduced containment delays suggested government-enacted interventions were useful for achieving outbreak control and should be further encouraged. Second, the shorter serial intervals associated with the composite mobility index calls for empirical surveys to disentangle the role of different contact dimensions in disease transmission. Third, the presymptomatic transmission and asymptomatic cases underscore the importance of remaining vigilant about COVID-19. Fourth, the time-varying epidemiological parameters suggest the need to incorporate their temporal variations when depicting the epidemic trajectory. Fifth, the high proportion of transmission events occurring within the same age group supports the ban on gatherings outside of households, and underscores the need for residence-centered preventive measures.

Long Covid: Online patient narratives, public health communication and vaccine hesitancy

INTRODUCTION

This study combines quantitative and qualitative analyses of social media data collected through three key stages of the pandemic, to highlight the following: 'First wave' (March to May, 2020): negative consequences arising from a disconnect between official health communications, and unofficial Long Covid sufferers' narratives online.'Second wave' (October 2020 to January 2021): closing the 'gap' between official health communications and unofficial patient narratives, leading to a better integration between patient voice, research and services.'Vaccination phase' (January 2021, early stages of the vaccination programme in the UK): continuing and new emerging concerns.

METHODS

We adopted a mixed methods approach involving quantitative and qualitative analyses of 1.38 million posts mentioning long-term symptoms of Covid-19, gathered across social media and news platforms between 1 January 2020 and 1 January 2021, on Twitter, Facebook, Blogs, and Forums. Our inductive thematic analysis was informed by our discourse analysis of words, and sentiment analysis of hashtags and emojis.

RESULTS

Results indicate that the negative impacts arise mostly from conflicting definitions of Covid-19 and fears around the Covid-19 vaccine for Long Covid sufferers. Key areas of concern are: time/duration; symptoms/testing; emotional impact; lack of support and resources.

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst Covid-19 is a global issue, specific sociocultural, political and economic contexts mean patients experience Long Covid at a localised level, needing appropriate localised responses. This can only happen if we build a knowledge base that begins with the patient, ultimately informing treatment and rehabilitation strategies for Long Covid.

Quantifying human mobility behaviour changes during the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States

Since the first case of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in Wuhan, China, social distancing has been promoted worldwide, including in the United States, as a major community mitigation strategy. However, our understanding remains limited in how people would react to such control measures, as well as how people would resume their normal behaviours when those orders were relaxed. We utilize an integrated dataset of real-time mobile device location data involving 100 million devices in the contiguous United States (plus Alaska and Hawaii) from February 2, 2020 to May 30, 2020. Built upon the common human mobility metrics, we construct a Social Distancing Index (SDI) to evaluate people's mobility pattern changes along with the spread of COVID-19 at different geographic levels. We find that both government orders and local outbreak severity significantly contribute to the strength of social distancing. As people tend to practice less social distancing immediately after they observe a sign of local mitigation, we identify several states and counties with higher risks of continuous community transmission and a second outbreak. Our proposed index could help policymakers and researchers monitor people's real-time mobility behaviours, understand the influence of government orders, and evaluate the risk of local outbreaks.

Social media and COVID-19: Can social distancing be quantified without measuring human movements?

The COVID-19 outbreak has posed significant threats to international health and the economy. In the absence of treatment for this virus, public health officials asked the public to practice social distancing to reduce the number of physical contacts. However, quantifying social distancing is a challenging task and current methods are based on human movements. We propose a time and cost-effective approach to measure how people practice social distancing. This study proposes a new method based on utilizing the frequency of hashtags supporting and encouraging social distancing for measuring social distancing. We have identified 18 related hashtags and tracked their trends between Jan and May 2020. Our evaluation results show that there is a strong correlation (p < .05) between our findings and the Google social distancing report.