Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Persons Aged 15-64 Years: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Influenza is a respiratory disease caused by the influenza virus, which is highly transmissible in humans. This paper presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and test-negative designs (TNDs) to assess the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of seasonal influenza vaccines (SIVs) in humans aged 15 to 64 years. An electronic search to identify all relevant studies was performed. The outcome measure of interest was VE on laboratory-confirmed influenza (any strain). Quality assessment was performed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for RCTs and the ROBINS-I tool for TNDs. The search identified a total of 2993 records, but only 123 studies from 73 papers were included in the meta-analysis. Of these studies, 9 were RCTs and 116 were TNDs. The pooled VE was 48% (95% CI: 42-54) for RCTs, 55.4% (95% CI: 43.2-64.9) when there was a match between the vaccine and most prevalent circulating strains and 39.3% (95% CI: 23.5-51.9) otherwise. The TNDs' adjusted VE was equal to 39.9% (95% CI: 31-48), 45.1 (95% CI: 38.7-50.8) when there was a match and 35.1 (95% CI: 29.0-40.7) otherwise. The match between strains included in the vaccine and strains in circulation is the most important factor in the VE. It increases by more than 25% when there is a match with the most prevalent circulating strains. The laboratorial method for confirmation of influenza is a possible source of bias when estimating VE.

Potential health and economic impact of paediatric vaccination using next-generation influenza vaccines in Kenya: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Influenza is a major year-round cause of respiratory illness in Kenya, particularly in children under 5. Current influenza vaccines result in short-term, strain-specific immunity and were found in a previous study not to be cost-effective in Kenya. However, next-generation vaccines are in development that may have a greater impact and cost-effectiveness profile.

METHODS

We expanded a model previously used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in Kenya to include next-generation vaccines by allowing for enhanced vaccine characteristics and multi-annual immunity. We specifically examined vaccinating children under 5 years of age with improved vaccines, evaluating vaccines with combinations of increased vaccine effectiveness, cross-protection between strains (breadth) and duration of immunity. We evaluated cost-effectiveness using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and incremental net monetary benefits (INMBs) for a range of values for the willingness-to-pay (WTP) per DALY averted. Finally, we estimated threshold per-dose vaccine prices at which vaccination becomes cost-effective.

RESULTS

Next-generation vaccines can be cost-effective, dependent on the vaccine characteristics and assumed WTP thresholds. Universal vaccines (assumed to provide long-term and broad immunity) are most cost-effective in Kenya across three of four WTP thresholds evaluated, with the lowest median value of ICER per DALY averted ($263, 95% Credible Interval (CrI): $ - 1698, $1061) and the highest median INMBs. At a WTP of $623, universal vaccines are cost-effective at or below a median price of $5.16 per dose (95% CrI: $0.94, $18.57). We also show that the assumed mechanism underlying infection-derived immunity strongly impacts vaccine outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This evaluation provides evidence for country-level decision makers about future next-generation vaccine introduction, as well as global research funders about the potential market for these vaccines. Next-generation vaccines may offer a cost-effective intervention to reduce influenza burden in low-income countries with year-round seasonality like Kenya.

Heterogeneity in influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness in Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa: early estimates of the 2019 influenza season

We compared 2019 influenza seasonality and vaccine effectiveness (VE) in four southern hemisphere countries: Australia, Chile, New Zealand and South Africa. Influenza seasons differed in timing, duration, intensity and predominant circulating viruses. VE estimates were also heterogeneous, with all-ages point estimates ranging from 7-70% (I2: 33%) for A(H1N1)pdm09, 4-57% (I2: 49%) for A(H3N2) and 29-66% (I2: 0%) for B. Caution should be applied when attempting to use southern hemisphere data to predict the northern hemisphere influenza season.

Hemagglutinin and Neuraminidase Antibodies Are Induced in an Age- and Subtype-Dependent Manner after Influenza Virus Infection

Data on the immunologic responses to neuraminidase (NA) is lacking compared to what is available on hemagglutinin (HA) responses, despite growing evidence that NA immunity can be protective and broadly cross-reactive. Understanding these NA responses during natural infection is key to exploiting these properties for improving influenza vaccines. Using two community-acquired influenza cohorts, we showed that the induction of both HA and NA antibodies after infection is influenced by age and subtypes. Such response dynamics suggest the influence of immunological memory, and understanding how this process is regulated will be critical to any vaccine effort targeting NA immunity.

Despite evidence that antibodies targeting the influenza virus neuraminidase (NA) protein can be protective and are broadly cross-reactive, the immune response to NA during infection is poorly understood compared to the response to hemagglutinin (HA) protein. As such, we compared the antibody profile to HA and NA in two naturally infected human cohorts in Auckland, New Zealand: (i) a serosurvey cohort, consisting of pre- and post-influenza season sera from PCR-confirmed influenza cases (n = 50), and (ii) an immunology cohort, consisting of paired sera collected after PCR-confirmation of infection (n = 94). The induction of both HA and NA antibodies in these cohorts was influenced by age and subtype. Seroconversion to HA was more frequent in those <20 years old (yo) for influenza A (serosurvey, P = 0.01; immunology, P = 0.02) but not influenza B virus infection. Seroconversion to NA was not influenced by age or virus type. Adults ≥20 yo infected with influenza A viruses were more likely to show NA-only seroconversion compared to children (56% versus 14% [5 to 19 yo] and 0% [0 to 4 yo], respectively). Conversely, children infected with influenza B viruses were more likely than adults to show NA-only seroconversion (88% [0 to 4 yo] and 75% [5 to 19 yo] versus 40% [≥20 yo]). These data indicate a potential role for immunological memory in the dynamics of HA and NA antibody responses. A better mechanistic understanding of this phenomenon will be critical for any future vaccines aimed at eliciting NA immunity.

IMPORTANCE Data on the immunologic responses to neuraminidase (NA) is lacking compared to what is available on hemagglutinin (HA) responses, despite growing evidence that NA immunity can be protective and broadly cross-reactive. Understanding these NA responses during natural infection is key to exploiting these properties for improving influenza vaccines. Using two community-acquired influenza cohorts, we showed that the induction of both HA and NA antibodies after infection is influenced by age and subtypes. Such response dynamics suggest the influence of immunological memory, and understanding how this process is regulated will be critical to any vaccine effort targeting NA immunity.

The Use of Test-negative Controls to Monitor Vaccine Effectiveness: A Systematic Review of Methodology

BACKGROUND

The test-negative design is an increasingly popular approach for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) due to its efficiency. This review aims to examine published test-negative design studies of VE and to explore similarities and differences in methodological choices for different diseases and vaccines.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Web of Science, and Medline, for studies reporting the effectiveness of any vaccines using a test-negative design. We screened titles and abstracts and reviewed full texts to identify relevant articles. We created a standardized form for each included article to extract information on the pathogen of interest, vaccine(s) being evaluated, study setting, clinical case definition, choices of cases and controls, and statistical approaches used to estimate VE.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 348 articles, including studies on VE against influenza virus (n = 253), rotavirus (n = 48), pneumococcus (n = 24), and nine other pathogens. Clinical case definitions used to enroll patients were similar by pathogens of interest but the sets of symptoms that defined them varied substantially. Controls could be those testing negative for the pathogen of interest, those testing positive for nonvaccine type of the pathogen of interest, or a subset of those testing positive for alternative pathogens. Most studies controlled for age, calendar time, and comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review highlights similarities and differences in the application of the test-negative design that deserve further examination. If vaccination reduces disease severity in breakthrough infections, particular care must be taken in interpreting vaccine effectiveness estimates from test-negative design studies.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccines in preventing severe influenza illness among adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis of test-negative design case-control studies

OBJECTIVES

Summary evidence of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against hospitalized influenza is lacking. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting IVE against laboratory-confirmed hospitalized influenza among adults.

METHODS

We searched Pubmed (January 2009 to November 2016) for studies that used test-negative design (TND) to enrol patients hospitalized with influenza-associated conditions. Two independent authors selected relevant articles. We calculated pooled IVE against any and (sub)type specific influenza among all adults, and stratified by age group (18-64 and 65 years and above) using random-effects models.

RESULTS

We identified 3411 publications and 30 met our inclusion criteria. Between 2010-11 and 2014-15, the pooled seasonal IVE was 41% (95%CI:34;48) for any influenza (51% (95%CI:44;58) among people aged 18-64y and 37% (95%CI:30;44) among ≥65 years). IVE was 48% (95%CI:37;59),37% (95%CI:24;50) and 38% (95%CI:23;53) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B, respectively. Among persons aged ≥65 year, IVE against A(H3N2) was 43% (95%CI:33;53) in seasons when circulating and vaccine strains were antigenically similar and 14% (95%CI:-3;30) when A(H3N2) variant viruses predominated.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccines provided moderate protection against influenza-associated hospitalizations among adults. They seemed to provide low protection among elderly in seasons where vaccine and circulating A(H3N2) strains were antigenically variant.

Influenza in the Asia-Pacific region: Findings and recommendations from the Global Influenza Initiative

The fourth roundtable meeting of the Global Influenza Initiative (GII) was held in Hong Kong, China, in July 2015. An objective of this meeting was to gain a broader understanding of the epidemiology, surveillance, vaccination policies and programs, and obstacles to vaccination of influenza in the Asia-Pacific region through presentations of data from Australia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. As well as a need for improved levels of surveillance in some areas, a range of factors were identified that act as barriers to vaccination in some countries, including differences in climate and geography, logistical challenges, funding, lack of vaccine awareness and education, safety concerns, perceived lack of vaccine effectiveness, and lack of inclusion in national guidelines. From the presentations at the meeting, the GII discussed a number of recommendations for easing the burden of influenza and overcoming the current challenges in the Asia-Pacific region. These recommendations encompass the need to improve surveillance and availability of epidemiological data; the development and publication of national guidelines, where not currently available and/or that are in line with those proposed by the World Health Organization; the requirement for optimal timing of vaccination programs according to local or country-specific epidemiology; and calls for advocacy and government support of vaccination programs in order to improve availability and uptake and coverage. In conclusion, in addition to the varied epidemiology of seasonal influenza across this diverse region, there are a number of logistical and resourcing issues that present a challenge to the development of optimally effective vaccination strategies and that need to be overcome to improve access to and uptake of seasonal influenza vaccines. The GII has developed a number of recommendations to address these challenges and improve the control of influenza.

A Pyrosequencing-Based Approach to High-Throughput Identification of Influenza A(H3N2) Virus Clades Harboring Antigenic Drift Variants

The rapid evolution of influenza A(H3N2) viruses necessitates close monitoring of their antigenic properties so the emergence and spread of antigenic drift variants can be rapidly identified. Changes in hemagglutinin (HA) acquired by contemporary A(H3N2) viruses hinder antigenic characterization by traditional methods, thus complicating vaccine strain selection. Sequence-based approaches have been used to infer virus antigenicity; however, they are time consuming and mid-throughput. To facilitate virological surveillance and epidemiological studies, we developed and validated a pyrosequencing approach that enables identification of six HA clades of contemporary A(H3N2) viruses. The identification scheme of viruses of the H3 clades 3C.2, 3C.2a, 3C.2b, 3C.3, 3C.3a, and 3C.3b is based on the interrogation of five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within three neighboring HA regions, namely 412 to 431, 465 to 481, and 559 to 571. Two bioinformatics tools, IdentiFire (Qiagen) and FireComb (developed in-house), were utilized to expedite pyrosequencing data analysis. The assay's analytical sensitivity was 10 focus forming units, and respiratory specimens with threshold cycle (C_T) values of <34 typically produced good quality pyrograms. When applied to 120 A(H3N2) virus isolates and 27 respiratory specimens, the assay displayed 100% agreement with clades determined by HA sequencing coupled with phylogenetics. The multi-SNP analysis described here was readily adopted by another laboratory with pyrosequencing capabilities. The implementation of this approach enhanced the findings from virological surveillance and epidemiological studies between 2013 and 2016, which examined more than 3,000 A(H3N2) viruses.

Estimating vaccine effectiveness in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in outpatient settings in South Africa, 2015

Trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness during the 2015 season in South Africa was assessed using a test‐negative case control study design. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was the dominant circulating strain. Overall influenza vaccine coverage was 3.2% (29/899). The vaccine effectiveness estimate, against any influenza virus infection, adjusted for age, underlying conditions and timing within season was 46.2% (95% CI: −23.5 to 76.5), and 53.6% (95% CI: −62.6 to 80.3) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.

Predominance of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus genetic subclade 6B.1 and influenza B/Victoria lineage viruses at the start of the 2015/16 influenza season in Europe

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses predominated in the European influenza 2015/16 season. Most analysed viruses clustered in a new genetic subclade 6B.1, antigenically similar to the northern hemisphere vaccine component A/California/7/2009. The predominant influenza B lineage was Victoria compared with Yamagata in the previous season. It remains to be evaluated at the end of the season if these changes affected the effectiveness of the vaccine for the 2015/16 season.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in Australia, 2015: An epidemiological, antigenic and phylogenetic assessment

BACKGROUND

A record number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were notified in Australia in 2015, during which type A(H3) and type B Victoria and Yamagata lineages co-circulated. We estimated effectiveness of the 2015 inactivated seasonal influenza vaccine against specific virus lineages and clades.

METHODS

Three sentinel general practitioner networks conduct surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza amongst patients presenting with influenza-like illness in Australia. Data from the networks were pooled to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) for seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine in Australia in 2015 using the case test-negative study design.

RESULTS

There were 2443 eligible patients included in the study, of which 857 (35%) were influenza-positive. Thirty-three and 19% of controls and cases respectively were reported as vaccinated. Adjusted VE against all influenza was 54% (95% CI: 42, 63). Antigenic characterisation data suggested good match between vaccine and circulating strains of A(H3); however VE for A(H3) was low at 44% (95% CI: 21, 60). Phylogenetic analysis indicated most circulating viruses were from clade 3C.2a, rather than the clade included in the vaccine (3C.3a). VE point estimates were higher against B/Yamagata lineage influenza (71%; 95% CI: 57, 80) than B/Victoria (42%, 95% CI: 13, 61), and in younger people.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall seasonal vaccine was protective against influenza infection in Australia in 2015. Higher VE against the B/Yamagata lineage included in the trivalent vaccine suggests that more widespread use of quadrivalent vaccine could have improved overall effectiveness of influenza vaccine. Genetic characterisation suggested lower VE against A(H3) influenza was due to clade mismatch of vaccine and circulating viruses.