Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Gamma variants in Italy, February and March 2021

Mathematical modeling of SARS-CoV-2 variant substitutions in European countries: transmission dynamics and epidemiological insights

Background

Countries across Europe have faced similar evolutions of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, including the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants.

Materials and methods

We used data from GISAID and applied a robust, automated mathematical substitution model to study the dynamics of COVID-19 variants in Europe over a period of more than 2 years, from late 2020 to early 2023. This model identifies variant substitution patterns and distinguishes between residual and dominant behavior. We used weekly sequencing data from 19 European countries to estimate the increase in transmissibility  ( Δ β )   between consecutive SARS-CoV-2 variants. In addition, we focused on large countries with separate regional outbreaks and complex scenarios of multiple competing variants.

Results

Our model accurately reproduced the observed substitution patterns between the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron major variants. We estimated the daily variant prevalence and calculated Δ β between variants, revealing that: ( i ) Δ β increased progressively from the Alpha to the Omicron variant; ( i i ) Δ β showed a high degree of variability within Omicron variants; ( i i i ) a higher Δ β was associated with a later emergence of the variant within a country; ( i v ) a higher degree of immunization of the population against previous variants was associated with a higher Δ β for the Delta variant; ( v ) larger countries exhibited smaller Δ β ,  suggesting regionally diverse outbreaks within the same country; and finally ( v i ) the model reliably captures the dynamics of competing variants, even in complex scenarios.

Conclusion

The use of mathematical models allows for precise and reliable estimation of daily cases of each variant. By quantifying Δ β ,  we have tracked the spread of the different variants across Europe, highlighting a robust increase in transmissibility trend from Alpha to Omicron. Additionally, we have shown that the geographical characteristics of a country, as well as the timing of new variant entrances, can explain some of the observed differences in variant substitution dynamics across countries.

Understanding SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein clusters and their impact on immunity of the population from Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

SARS-CoV-2 genome underwent mutations since it started circulating within the human population. The aim of this study was to understand the fluctuation of the spike clusters concomitant to the population immunity either due to natural infection and/or vaccination in a state of Brazil that had both high rate of natural infection and vaccination coverage. A total of 1725 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, were retrieved from GISAID and subjected to cluster analysis. Immunoinformatics were used to predict T- and B-cell epitopes, followed by simulation to estimate either pro- or anti-inflammatory responses and to correlate with circulating variants. From March 2020 to June 2022, the state of Rio Grande do Norte reported 579,931 COVID-19 cases with a 1.4% fatality rate across the three major waves: May-Sept 2020, Feb-Aug 2021, and Jan-Mar 2022. Cluster 0 variants (wild type strain, Zeta) were prevalent in the first wave and Delta (AY.*), which circulated in Brazil in the latter half of 2021, featuring fewer unique epitopes. Cluster 1 (Gamma (P.1 + P.1.*)) dominated the first half of 2021. Late 2021 had two new clusters, Cluster 2 (Omicron, (B.1.1.529 + BA.*)), and Cluster 3 (BA.*) with the most unique epitopes, in addition to Cluster 4 (Delta sub lineages) which emerged in the second half of 2021 with fewer unique epitopes. Cluster 1 epitopes showed a high pro-inflammatory propensity, while others exhibited a balanced cytokine induction. The clustering method effectively identified Spike groups that may contribute to immune evasion and clinical presentation, and explain in part the clinical outcome.

Competitive fitness and homologous recombination of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants continue to emerge and cocirculate in humans and wild animals. The factors driving the emergence and replacement of novel variants and recombinants remain incompletely understood. Herein, we comprehensively characterized the competitive fitness of SARS-CoV-2 wild type (WT) and three variants of concern (VOCs), Alpha, Beta and Delta, by coinfection and serial passaging assays in different susceptible cells. Deep sequencing analyses revealed cell-specific competitive fitness: the Beta variant showed enhanced replication fitness during serial passage in Caco-2 cells, whereas the WT and Alpha variant showed elevated fitness in Vero E6 cells. Interestingly, a high level of neutralizing antibody sped up competition and completely reshaped the fitness advantages of different variants. More importantly, single clone purification identified a significant proportion of homologous recombinants that emerged during the passage history, and immune pressure reduced the frequency of recombination. Interestingly, a recombination hot region located between nucleotide sites 22,995 and 28,866 of the viral genomes could be identified in most of the detected recombinants. Our study not only profiled the variable competitive fitness of SARS-CoV-2 under different conditions, but also provided direct experimental evidence of homologous recombination between SARS-CoV-2 viruses, as well as a model for investigating SARS-CoV-2 recombination.

Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Military and Civilian Personnel of an Air Force Airport during Three Pandemic Waves in Italy

We investigated SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating, from November 2020 to March 2022, among military and civilian personnel at an Air Force airport in Italy in order to classify viral isolates in a potential hotspot for virus spread. Positive samples were subjected to Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) of the whole viral genome and Sanger sequencing of the spike coding region. Phylogenetic analysis classified viral isolates and traced their evolutionary relationships. Clusters were identified using 70% cut-off. Sequencing methods yielded comparable results in terms of variant classification. In 2020 and 2021, we identified several variants, including B.1.258 (4/67), B.1.177 (9/67), Alpha (B.1.1.7, 9/67), Gamma (P.1.1, 4/67), and Delta (4/67). In 2022, only Omicron and its sub-lineage variants were observed (37/67). SARS-CoV-2 isolates were screened to detect naturally occurring resistance in genomic regions, the target of new therapies, comparing them to the Wuhan Hu-1 reference strain. Interestingly, 2/30 non-Omicron isolates carried the G15S 3CLpro substitution responsible for reduced susceptibility to protease inhibitors. On the other hand, Omicron isolates carried unusual substitutions A1803V, D1809N, and A949T on PLpro, and the D216N on 3CLpro. Finally, the P323L substitution on RdRp coding regions was not associated with the mutational pattern related to polymerase inhibitor resistance. This study highlights the importance of continuous genomic surveillance to monitor SARS-CoV-2 evolution in the general population, as well as in restricted communities.

Facing the Challenges in the COVID-19 Pandemic Era: From Standard Treatments to the Umbilical Cord-Derived Mesenchymal Stromal Cells as a New Therapeutic Strategy

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which counts more than 650 million cases and more than 6.6 million of deaths worldwide, affects the respiratory system with typical symptoms such as fever, cough, sore throat, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and fatigue. Other nonpulmonary manifestations are related with abnormal inflammatory response, the "cytokine storm", that could lead to a multiorgan disease and to death. Evolution of effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 provided multiple options to prevent the infection, but the treatment of the severe forms remains difficult to manage. The cytokine storm is usually counteracted with standard medical care and anti-inflammatory drugs, but researchers moved forward their studies on new strategies based on cell therapy approaches. The perinatal tissues, such as placental membranes, amniotic fluid, and umbilical cord derivatives, are enriched in mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) that exert a well-known anti-inflammatory role, immune response modulation, and tissue repair. In this review, we focused on umbilical-cord-derived MSCs (UC-MSCs) used in in vitro and in vivo studies in order to evaluate the weakening of the severe symptoms, and on recent clinical trials from different databases, supporting the favorable potential of UC-MSCs as therapeutic strategy.

Host Response of Syrian Hamster to SARS-CoV-2 Infection including Differences with Humans and between Sexes

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has highlighted the importance of having proper tools and models to study the pathophysiology of emerging infectious diseases to test therapeutic protocols, assess changes in viral phenotypes, and evaluate the effects of viral evolution. This study provided a comprehensive characterization of the Syrian hamster (Mesocricetus auratus) as an animal model for SARS-CoV-2 infection using different approaches (description of clinical signs, viral load, receptor profiling, and host immune response) and targeting four different organs (lungs, intestine, brain, and PBMCs). Our data showed that both male and female hamsters were susceptible to the infection and developed a disease similar to the one observed in patients with COVID-19 that included moderate to severe pulmonary lesions, inflammation, and recruitment of the immune system in the lungs and at the systemic level. However, all animals recovered within 14 days without developing the severe pathology seen in humans, and none of them died. We found faint evidence for intestinal and neurological tropism associated with the absence of lesions and a minimal host response in intestines and brains, which highlighted another crucial difference with the multiorgan impairment of severe COVID-19. When comparing male and female hamsters, we observed that males sustained higher viral RNA shedding and replication in the lungs, suffered from more severe symptoms and histopathological lesions, and triggered higher pulmonary inflammation. Overall, these data confirmed the Syrian hamster as a suitable model for mild to moderate COVID-19 and reflected sex-related differences in the response against the virus observed in humans.

Estimation of the incubation period and generation time of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Delta variants from contact tracing data

Quantitative information on epidemiological quantities such as the incubation period and generation time of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is scarce. We analysed a dataset collected during contact tracing activities in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout 2021. We determined the distributions of the incubation period for the Alpha and Delta variants using information on negative polymerase chain reaction tests and the date of last exposure from 282 symptomatic cases. We estimated the distributions of the intrinsic generation time using a Bayesian inference approach applied to 9724 SARS-CoV-2 cases clustered in 3545 households where at least one secondary case was recorded. We estimated a mean incubation period of 4.9 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 4.4-5.4) for Alpha and 4.5 days (95% CrI 4.0-5.0) for Delta. The intrinsic generation time was estimated to have a mean of 7.12 days (95% CrI 6.27-8.44) for Alpha and of 6.52 days (95% CrI 5.54-8.43) for Delta. The household serial interval was 2.43 days (95% CrI 2.29-2.58) for Alpha and 2.74 days (95% CrI 2.62-2.88) for Delta, and the estimated proportion of pre-symptomatic transmission was 48-51% for both variants. These results indicate limited differences in the incubation period and intrinsic generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha and Delta compared to ancestral lineages.

SARS-CoV-2 reinfections with BA.1 (Omicron) variant among fully vaccinated individuals in northeastern Brazil

BACKGROUND

The first case of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Rio Grande do Norte, northeastern Brazil, was diagnosed on March 12, 2020; thereafter, multiple surges of infection occurred, similar to what was seen elsewhere. These surges were mostly due to SARS-CoV-2 mutations leading to emergence of variants of concern (VoC). The introduction of new VoCs in a population previously exposed to SARS-CoV-2 or after vaccination has been a challenge to understanding the kinetics of the protective immune response against this virus. The aim of this study was to investigate the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections observed in mid-January 2022 in Rio Grande do Norte state, Brazil. It describes the clinical and genomic characteristics of nine cases of reinfection that occurred coincident with the introduction of the omicron variant.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Of a total of 172,965 individuals with upper respiratory symptoms tested for SARS-CoV-2, between March 2020 through mid-February 2022, 58,097 tested positive. Of those, 444 had documented a second SARS-CoV-2 infection and nine reinfection cases were selected for sequencing. Genomic analysis revealed that virus lineages diverged between primary infections and the reinfections, with the latter caused by the Omicron (BA.1) variant among individuals fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our findings suggest that the Omicron variant is able to evade both natural and vaccine-induced immunity, since all nine cases had prior natural infection and, in addition, were fully vaccinated, emphasizing the need to develop effective blocking vaccines.

SARS-CoV-2 reinfections with BA.1 (Omicron) variant among fully vaccinated individuals in northeastern Brazil

BACKGROUND

The first case of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Rio Grande do Norte, northeastern Brazil, was diagnosed on March 12, 2020; thereafter, multiple surges of infection occurred, similar to what was seen elsewhere. These surges were mostly due to SARS-CoV-2 mutations leading to emergence of variants of concern (VoC). The introduction of new VoCs in a population previously exposed to SARS-CoV-2 or after vaccination has been a challenge to understanding the kinetics of the protective immune response against this virus. The aim of this study was to investigate the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections observed in mid-January 2022 in Rio Grande do Norte state, Brazil. It describes the clinical and genomic characteristics of nine cases of reinfection that occurred coincident with the introduction of the omicron variant.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Of a total of 172,965 individuals with upper respiratory symptoms tested for SARS-CoV-2, between March 2020 through mid-February 2022, 58,097 tested positive. Of those, 444 had documented a second SARS-CoV-2 infection and nine reinfection cases were selected for sequencing. Genomic analysis revealed that virus lineages diverged between primary infections and the reinfections, with the latter caused by the Omicron (BA.1) variant among individuals fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our findings suggest that the Omicron variant is able to evade both natural and vaccine-induced immunity, since all nine cases had prior natural infection and, in addition, were fully vaccinated, emphasizing the need to develop effective blocking vaccines.

Molecular Characterization of Whole-Genome SARS-CoV-2 from the First Suspected Cases of the XE Variant in the Lazio Region, Italy

We report two cases of SARS-CoV-2 recombinant variant XE detected in nasopharyngeal swabs (NPS) of hospitalized patients with no evident epidemiological link in Lazio, Central Italy. Whole-Genome Sequencing (WGS) performed on an Ion Torrent GSS5 platform according to Italian flash surveys showed genomes corresponding to the PANGOLIN unclassified lineage and the Nextclade XE clade. Further analyses were then carried out to investigate more deeply the genetic characteristics of these XE-like sequences. When phylogenetic trees, by using IQ-TREE, were built splitting the genome into two regions according to the putative XE recombination site, the upstream and downstream regions were seen to be clustered near BA.1 and BA.2 sequences, respectively. However, our XE-like sequences clustered separately, with a significant bootstrap, from the classified European and Italian XE strains, although the recombination site between BA.1 and BA.2 was identified at the nucleotide site 11556 by RDP4 software, consistent with the putative XE breakpoint. These findings show the risk of the introduction of novel recombinant variants of SARS-CoV-2 and the existence of XE-like strains, phylogenetically separated, that could make their exact taxonomy difficult. It follows the need for continued SARS-CoV-2 surveillance by WGS.

Structural Evolution of Delta (B.1.617.2) and Omicron (BA.1) Spike Glycoproteins

The vast amount of epidemiologic and genomic data that were gathered as a global response to the COVID-19 pandemic that was caused by SARS-CoV-2 offer a unique opportunity to shed light on the structural evolution of coronaviruses and in particular on the spike (S) glycoprotein, which mediates virus entry into the host cell by binding to the human ACE2 receptor. Herein, we carry out an investigation into the dynamic properties of the S glycoprotein, focusing on the much more transmissible Delta and Omicron variants. Notwithstanding the great number of mutations that have accumulated, particularly in the Omicron S glycoprotein, our data clearly showed the conservation of some structural and dynamic elements, such as the global motion of the receptor binding domain (RBD). However, our studies also revealed structural and dynamic alterations that were concentrated in the aa 627–635 region, on a small region of the receptor binding motif (aa 483–485), and the so-called “fusion-peptide proximal region”. In particular, these last two S regions are known to be involved in the human receptor ACE2 recognition and membrane fusion. Our structural evidence, therefore, is likely involved in the observed different transmissibility of these S mutants. Finally, we highlighted the role of glycans in the increased RBD flexibility of the monomer in the up conformation of Omicron.

Dynamics of Viral Infection and Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in the Calabria Area of Southern Italy

In this study, we report on the results of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance performed in an area of Southern Italy for 12 months (from March 2021 to February 2022). To this study, we have sequenced RNA from 609 isolates. We have identified circulating VOCs by Sanger sequencing of the S gene and defined their genotypes by whole-genome NGS sequencing of 157 representative isolates. Our results indicated that B.1 and Alpha were the only circulating lineages in Calabria in March 2021; while Alpha remained the most common variant between April 2021 and May 2021 (90 and 73%, respectively), we observed a concomitant decrease in B.1 cases and appearance of Gamma cases (6 and 21%, respectively); C.36.3 and Delta appeared in June 2021 (6 and 3%, respectively); Delta became dominant in July 2021 while Alpha continued to reduce (46 and 48%, respectively). In August 2021, Delta became the only circulating variant until the end of December 2021. As of January 2022, Omicron emerged and took over Delta (72 and 28%, respectively). No patient carrying Beta, Iota, Mu, or Eta variants was identified in this survey. Among the genomes identified in this study, some were distributed all over Europe (B1_S477N, Alpha_L5F, Delta_T95, Delta_G181V, and Delta_A222V), some were distributed in the majority of Italian regions (B1_S477N, B1_Q675H, Delta_T95I and Delta_A222V), and some were present mainly in Calabria (B1_S477N_T29I, B1_S477N_T29I_E484Q, Alpha_A67S, Alpha_A701S, and Alpha_T724I). Prediction analysis of the effects of mutations on the immune response (i.e., binding to class I MHC and/or recognition of T cells) indicated that T29I in B.1 variant; A701S in Alpha variant; and T19R in Delta variant were predicted to impair binding to class I MHC whereas the mutations A67S identified in Alpha; E484K identified in Gamma; and E156G and ΔF157/R158 identified in Delta were predicted to impair recognition by T cells. In conclusion, we report on the results of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in Regione Calabria in the period between March 2021 and February 2022, identified variants that were enriched mainly in Calabria, and predicted the effects of identified mutations on host immune response.

Analysis of 6.4 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes identifies mutations associated with fitness

Repeated emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased fitness underscores the value of rapid detection and characterization of new lineages. We have developed PyR₀, a hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model that infers relative prevalence of all viral lineages across geographic regions, detects lineages increasing in prevalence, and identifies mutations relevant to fitness. Applying PyR₀ to all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we identify numerous substitutions that increase fitness, including previously identified spike mutations and many non-spike mutations within the nucleocapsid and nonstructural proteins. PyR₀ forecasts growth of new lineages from their mutational profile, ranks the fitness of lineages as new sequences become available, and prioritizes mutations of biological and public health concern for functional characterization.

Analysis of 6.4 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes identifies mutations associated with fitness

Repeated emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased fitness necessitates rapid detection and characterization of new lineages. To address this need, we developed PyR 0 , a hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model that infers relative prevalence of all viral lineages across geographic regions, detects lineages increasing in prevalence, and identifies mutations relevant to fitness. Applying PyR 0 to all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we identify numerous substitutions that increase fitness, including previously identified spike mutations and many non-spike mutations within the nucleocapsid and nonstructural proteins. PyR 0 forecasts growth of new lineages from their mutational profile, identifies viral lineages of concern as they emerge, and prioritizes mutations of biological and public health concern for functional characterization.

ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY

A Bayesian hierarchical model of all SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes predicts lineage fitness and identifies associated mutations.