Female and male Eurasian lynx have distinct spatial tactics at different life-history stages in a high-density population

Knowledge regarding the spatial behavior of the Eurasian lynx is mainly inferred from populations in Europe. We used GPS telemetry to record the spatial behavior of nine individuals in northwestern Anatolia obtaining eleven home ranges (HRs). Analyses revealed the smallest mean HR sizes (nHR ♀  = 4) at 57 km2 (95% kernel utilization distribution, KUD) and 56 km2 (95% minimum convex polygon, MCP), ever reported for adult female Eurasian lynx. Adult males either occupied small permanent territories (nHR♂.T = 2), with a mean of 176 km2 (95% KUD) and 150 km2 (95% MCP), or were residents without territories (floaters, nHR♂. F  = 2) roaming across large, stable HRs with a mean size of 2,419 km2 (95% KUD) and 1,888 km2 (95% MCP), comparable to HR sizes of Scandinavian lynx populations. Three disperser subadult males did not hold stable HRs (mean 95% KUD = 203 km2, mean 95% MCP = 272 km2). At 4.9 individuals per 100 km2, population density was one of the highest recorded, suggesting that the presence of adult male floaters was a consequence of a landscape fully occupied by territorials and revealing a flexibility of spatial behavior of Eurasian lynx not previously recognized. Such a high population density, small HRs, and behavioral flexibility may have been aided by the legal protection from and apparent low levels of poaching of this population. The observed spatial tactics are unlikely to be seen in most of the previously studied Eurasian lynx populations, as they either suffer medium to high levels of human-caused mortality or were unlikely to be at carrying capacity. For effective and appropriate conservation planning, data from felid populations in a reasonably natural state such as ours, where space, density, prey, and pathogens are likely to be the key drivers of spatial dynamics, are therefore essential.

Extreme home range sizes among Eurasian lynx at the northern edge of their biogeographic range

Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) have a wide distribution across Eurasia. The northern edge of this distribution is in Norway, where they reach up to 72 degrees north. We conducted a study of lynx space use in this region from 2007 to 2013 using GPS telemetry. The home range sizes averaged 2,606 (± 438 SE) km2 for males (n = 9 ranges) and 1,456 (± 179 SE) km2 for females (n = 24 ranges). These are the largest home ranges reported for any large felid, and indeed are only matched by polar bears, arctic living wolves, and grizzly bears among all the Carnivora. The habitat occupied was almost entirely treeless alpine tundra, with home ranges only containing from 20% to 25% of forest. These data have clear implications for the spatial planning of lynx management in the far north as the current management zones are located in unsuitable habitats and are not large enough to encompass individual lynx movements.

Harvest models of small populations of a large carnivore using Bayesian forecasting

Harvesting large carnivores can be a management tool for meeting politically set goals for their desired abundance. However, harvesting carnivores creates its own set of conflicts in both society and among conservation professionals, where one consequence is a need to demonstrate that management is sustainable, evidence-based, and guided by science. Furthermore, because large carnivores often also have high degrees of legal protection, harvest quotas have to be carefully justified and constantly adjusted to avoid damaging their conservation status. We developed a Bayesian state-space model to support adaptive management of Eurasian lynx harvesting in Scandinavia. The model uses data from the annual monitoring of lynx abundance and results from long-term field research on lynx biology, which has provided detailed estimates of key demographic parameters. We used the model to predict the probability that the forecasted population size will be below or above the management objectives when subjected to different harvest quotas. The model presented here informs decision makers about the policy risks of alternative harvest levels. Earlier versions of the model have been available for wildlife managers in both Sweden and Norway to guide lynx harvest quotas and the model predictions showed good agreement with observations. We combined monitoring data with data on vital rates and were able to estimate unobserved additional mortality rates, which are most probably due to poaching. In both countries, the past quota setting strategy suggests that there has been a de facto threshold strategy with increasing proportion, which means that there is no harvest below a certain population size, but above this threshold there is an increasing proportion of the population harvested as the population size increases. The annual assessment of the monitoring results, the use of forecasting models, and a threshold harvest approach to quota setting will all reduce the risk of lynx population sizes moving outside the desired goals. The approach we illustrate could be adapted to other populations of mammals worldwide.

Genetic evidence of female kin clusters in a continuous population of a solitary carnivore, the Eurasian lynx

Large terrestrial carnivores can sometimes display strong family bonds affecting the spatial distribution of related individuals. We studied the spatial genetic relatedness and family structure of female Eurasian lynx, continuously distributed in southern Finland. We hypothesized that closely related females form matrilineal assemblages, clustering together with relatives living in the neighboring areas. We evaluated this hypothesis using tissue samples of 133 legally harvested female lynx (from year 2007 to 2015), genotyped with 23 microsatellite markers, and tested for possible spatial genetic family structure using a combination of Bayesian clustering, spatial autocorrelation, and forensic genetic parentage analysis. The study population had three potential family genetic clusters, with a high degree of admixture and geographic overlap, and showed a weak but significant negative relationship between pairwise genetic and geographic distance. Moreover, parentage analysis indicated that 64% of the females had one or more close relatives (sister, mother, or daughter) within the study population. Individuals identified as close kin consistently assigned to the same putative family genetic cluster. They also were sampled closer geographically than females on average, although variation was large. Our results support the possibility that Eurasian lynx forms matrilineal assemblages, and comparisons with males are now required to further assess this hypothesis.

The range of the mange: Spatiotemporal patterns of sarcoptic mange in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) as revealed by camera trapping

Sarcoptic mange is a widely distributed disease that affects numerous mammalian species. We used camera traps to investigate the apparent prevalence and spatiotemporal dynamics of sarcoptic mange in a red fox population in southeastern Norway. We monitored red foxes for five years using 305 camera traps distributed across an 18000 km² area. A total of 6581 fox events were examined to visually identify mange compatible lesions. We investigated factors associated with the occurrence of mange by using logistic models within a Bayesian framework, whereas the spatiotemporal dynamics of the disease were analysed with space-time scan statistics. The apparent prevalence of the disease fluctuated over the study period with a mean of 3.15% and credible interval [1.25, 6.37], and our best logistic model explaining the presence of red foxes with mange-compatible lesions included time since the beginning of the study and the interaction between distance to settlement and season as explanatory variables. The scan analyses detected several potential clusters of the disease that varied in persistence and size, and the locations in the cluster with the highest probability were closer to human settlements than the other survey locations. Our results indicate that red foxes in an advanced stage of the disease are most likely found closer to human settlements during periods of low wild prey availability (winter). We discuss different potential causes. Furthermore, the disease appears to follow a pattern of small localized outbreaks rather than sporadic isolated events.

Recovery of large carnivores in Europe's modern human-dominated landscapes

The conservation of large carnivores is a formidable challenge for biodiversity conservation. Using a data set on the past and current status of brown bears (Ursus arctos), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo) in European countries, we show that roughly one-third of mainland Europe hosts at least one large carnivore species, with stable or increasing abundance in most cases in 21st-century records. The reasons for this overall conservation success include protective legislation, supportive public opinion, and a variety of practices making coexistence between large carnivores and people possible. The European situation reveals that large carnivores and people can share the same landscape.

The risks of learning: confounding detection and demographic trend when using count-based indices for population monitoring

Theory recognizes that a treatment of the detection process is required to avoid producing biased estimates of population rate of change. Still, one of three monitoring programmes on animal or plant populations is focused on simply counting individuals or other fixed visible structures, such as natal dens, nests, tree cavities. This type of monitoring design poses concerns about the possibility to respect the assumption of constant detection, as the information acquired in a given year about the spatial distribution of reproductive sites can provide a higher chance to detect the species in subsequent years. We developed an individual-based simulation model, which evaluates how the accumulation of knowledge about the spatial distribution of a population process can affect the accuracy of population growth rate estimates, when using simple count-based indices. Then, we assessed the relative importance of each parameter in affecting monitoring performance. We also present the case of wolverines (Gulo gulo) in southern Scandinavia as an example of a monitoring system with an intrinsic tendency to accumulate knowledge and increase detectability. When the occupation of a nest or den is temporally autocorrelated, the monitoring system is prone to increase its knowledge with time. This happens also when there is no intensification in monitoring effort and no change in the monitoring conditions. Such accumulated knowledge is likely to increase detection probability with time and can produce severe bias in the estimation of the rate and direction of population change over time. We recommend that a systematic sampling of the population process under study and an explicit treatment of the underlying detection process should be implemented whenever economic and logistical constraints permit, as failure to include detection probability in the estimation of population growth rate can lead to serious bias and severe consequences for management and conservation.

The role of predation and food limitation on claims for compensation, reindeer demography and population dynamics

A major challenge in biodiversity conservation is to facilitate viable populations of large apex predators in ecosystems where they were recently driven to ecological extinction due to resource conflict with humans.Monetary compensation for losses of livestock due to predation is currently a key instrument to encourage human-carnivore coexistence. However, a lack of quantitative estimates of livestock losses due to predation leads to disagreement over the practice of compensation payments. This disagreement sustains the human-carnivore conflict.The level of depredation on year-round, free-ranging, semi-domestic reindeer by large carnivores in Fennoscandia has been widely debated over several decades. In Norway, the reindeer herders claim that lynx and wolverine cause losses of tens of thousands of animals annually and cause negative population growth in herds. Conversely, previous research has suggested that monetary predator compensation can result in positive population growth in the husbandry, with cascading negative effects of high grazer densities on the biodiversity in tundra ecosystems.We utilized a long-term, large-scale data set to estimate the relative importance of lynx and wolverine predation and density-dependent and climatic food limitation on claims for losses, recruitment and population growth rates in Norwegian reindeer husbandry.Claims of losses increased with increasing predator densities, but with no detectable effect on population growth rates. Density-dependent and climatic effects on claims of losses, recruitment and population growth rates were much stronger than the effects of variation in lynx and wolverine densities.Synthesis and applications. Our analysis provides a quantitative basis for predator compensation and estimation of the costs of reintroducing lynx and wolverine in areas with free-ranging semi-domestic reindeer. We outline a potential path for conflict management which involves adaptive monitoring programmes, open access to data, herder involvement and development of management strategy evaluation (MSE) models to disentangle complex responses including multiple stakeholders and individual harvester decisions.

Geo-spatial aspects of acceptance of illegal hunting of large carnivores in Scandinavia

Human-carnivore conflicts are complex and are influenced by: the spatial distribution of the conflict species; the organisation and intensity of management measures such as zoning; historical experience with wildlife; land use patterns; and local cultural traditions. We have used a geographically stratified sampling of social values and attitudes to provide a novel perspective to the human - wildlife conflict. We have focused on acceptance by and disagreements between residents (measured as Potential Conflict Index; PCI) towards illegal hunting of four species of large carnivores (bear, lynx, wolf, wolverine). The study is based on surveys of residents in every municipality in Sweden and Norway who were asked their opinion on illegal hunting. Our results show how certain social values are associated with acceptance of poaching, and how these values differ geographically independent of carnivore abundance. Our approach differs from traditional survey designs, which are often biased towards urban areas. Although these traditional designs intend to be representative of a region (i.e. a random sample from a country), they tend to receive relatively few respondents from rural areas that experience the majority of conflict with carnivores. Acceptance of poaching differed significantly between Norway (12.7-15.7% of respondents) and Sweden (3.3-4.1% of respondents). We found the highest acceptance of illegal hunting in rural areas with free-ranging sheep and strong hunting traditions. Disagreements between residents (as measured by PCI) were highest in areas with intermediate population density. There was no correlation between carnivore density and either acceptance of illegal hunting or PCI. A strong positive correlation between acceptance of illegal hunting and PCI showed that areas with high acceptance of illegal hunting are areas with high potential conflict between people. Our results show that spatially-stratified surveys are required to reveal the large scale patterns in social dynamics of human-wildlife conflicts.

Native predators reduce harvest of reindeer by Sámi pastoralists

Contemporary efforts to protect biological diversity recognize the importance of sustaining traditional human livelihoods, particularly uses of the land that are compatible with intact landscapes and ecologically complete food webs. However, these efforts often confront conflicting goals. For example, conserving native predators may harm pastoralist economies because predators consume domestic livestock that sustain people. This potential conflict must be reconciled by policy, but such reconciliation requires a firm understanding of the effects of predators on the prey used by people. We used a long-term, large-scale database and Bayesian models to estimate the impacts of lynx (Lynx lynx), wolverine (Gulo gulo), and brown bear (Ursus arctos) on harvest of semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) by Sami pastoralists in Sweden. The average annual harvest of reindeer averaged 25% of the population (95% credible interval = 19, 31). Annual harvest declined by 96.6 (31, 155) reindeer for each lynx family group (the surveyed segment of the lynx population) in a management unit and by 94.3 (20, 160) for each wolverine reproduction (the surveyed segment of the wolverine population). We failed to detect effects of predation by brown bear. The mechanism for effects of predation on harvest was reduced population growth rate. The rate of increase of reindeer populations declined with increasing abundance of lynx and wolverine. The density of reindeer, latitude, and weather indexed by the North Atlantic Oscillation also influenced reindeer population growth rate. We conclude that there is a biological basis for compensating the Sámi reindeer herders for predation on reindeer.

Patterns of variation in reproductive parameters in Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx)

Detailed knowledge of the variation in demographic rates is central for our ability to understand the evolution of life history strategies and population dynamics, and to plan for the conservation of endangered species. We studied variation in reproductive output of 61 radio-collared Eurasian lynx females in four Scandinavian study sites spanning a total of 223 lynx-years. Specifically, we examined how the breeding proportion and litter size varied among study areas and age classes (2-year-old vs. >2-year-old females). In general, the breeding proportion varied between age classes and study sites, whereas we did not detect such variation in litter size. The lack of differences in litter sizes among age classes is at odds with most findings in large mammals, and we argue that this is because the level of prenatal investment is relatively low in felids compared to their substantial levels of postnatal care.

Sustainably harvesting a large carnivore? Development of Eurasian lynx populations in Norway during 160 years of shifting policy

The management of large carnivores in multi-use landscapes is always controversial, and managers need to balance a wide range of competing interests. Hunter harvest is often used to limit population size and distribution but is proving to be both controversial and technically challenging. Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) are currently managed as a game species in Norway. We describe an adaptive management approach where quota setting is based on an annual census and chart the population development through the period 1996-2008, as management has become significantly more sophisticated and better informed by the increased availability of scientific data. During this period the population has been through a period of high quotas and population decline caused by fragmented management authority and over optimistic estimates of lynx reproduction, followed by a period of recovery due to quota reductions. The modern management regime is placed in the context of shifting policy during the last 160 years, during which management goals have moved from extermination stimulated by bounties, through a short phase of protection, and now to quota-regulated harvest. Much management authority has also been delegated from central to local levels. We conclude that adaptive management has the potential to keep the population within some bounded limits, although there will inevitably be fluctuation.

Competition between recolonizing wolves and resident lynx in Sweden

We studied the effect of a recolonizing wolf ( Canis lupus L., 1758) population on a resident lynx ( Lynx lynx (L., 1758)) population in south-central Sweden. Wolf and lynx share the same prey species, western roe deer ( Capreolus capreolus (L., 1758)), and the size difference between the two species suggests a strong potential for interference competition. The spatial distributions of lynx family groups (n = 378) over four winters were not significantly affected by the increase in size and range of the wolf population. Survival of lynx kittens until 9 months of age did not differ significantly inside (54%; n = 37) and outside (62%; n = 42) wolf territories, and female lynx (n = 3) selected natal den sites (n = 19) in the same local area before and after wolf establishment. Furthermore, lynx home-range size (n = 42) did not increase as a result of presence of wolves and space use by female lynx (n = 3) was not affected by wolf establishment. We found no evidence of cleptoparasitism by wolves on roe deer killed by lynx. We conclude that the intensity of interference and exploitation competition between wolves and lynx was low.

Climate, season, and social status modulate the functional response of an efficient stalking predator: the Eurasian lynx

1. Predation plays a major role in shaping the structure and dynamics of ecological communities, and the functional response of a predator is of crucial importance to the dynamics of any predator-prey system by linking the trophic levels. For large mammals, there is a dearth of field studies documenting functional responses, and observations at low prey density are particularly scarce. Furthermore, there is a lack of understanding about how variables such as season, social status and climate modulate the functional response curves. 2. We analysed kill rate data collected over a 10-year period based on radio-marked lynx (Lynx lynx) mainly preying on roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) along a steep prey density gradient in south-eastern Norway. 3. The asymptotic kill rate was reached at a very low prey density for both solitary individuals and family groups (i.e. females with their dependent kittens), indicative of an efficient predator. This highlights the importance of understanding the interplay between predator and prey at low prey densities. 4. A purely prey-dependent functional response was a poor descriptor of the data, as the curve was strongly modulated by season and differences between lynx of different social status. In addition, there was a clear effect of abiotic climatic factors (indexed by the North Atlantic Oscillation) on observed kill rates in the more snow-rich portion of our study area. 5. Our analysis suggests that simple functional response curves might be poor descriptors of predator consumption rates in complex natural system, and that auxiliary factors are likely to induce complexity into any predator-prey systems that would not be captured by simple deterministic approaches.