Fever screening at airports and imported dengue

Dengue outbreak 2023 in Bangladesh: From a local concern to a global public health issue

Dengue, a viral infection transmitted by mosquitoes, has become a substantial public health issue in Bangladesh. The high population density and subtropical-tropical climate of the nation create conducive environments for the transmission of the virus. The recent increase in dengue cases in Bangladesh prompts an inquiry into the potential for the virus to progress into an epidemic manifestation. Bangladesh is prone to dengue outbreaks due to a multitude of contributing factors. To commence, the virus is endemic to tropical and subtropical regions, and climate change is contributing to the expansion of its range. Additionally, the high population density in Bangladesh amplifies the vulnerability to dengue transmission. Intimate human proximity elevates the probability of contracting mosquito stings and transmitting viruses. The escalating incidence of dengue in Bangladesh is substantiated by the growing count of documented cases. The emergence of severe dengue is a contributing aspect that raises concerns about the potential worldwide consequences of the disease. It could potentially head from Bangladesh to neighboring nations via an infected individual. There exist apprehensions due to the substantial employment of Bangladeshi laborers overseas, compounded by the presence of foreign laborers within Bangladesh. The endeavor to control dengue in Bangladesh continues to face ongoing challenges. This review addresses the complexities of dengue transmission, assesses Bangladesh's readiness for managing epidemics, analyzes risk factors associated with dengue, and suggests preventive measures to mitigate the possibility of worldwide consequences of dengue originating within the nation.

Improving dengue fever predictions in Taiwan based on feature selection and random forests

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is a well-studied vector-borne disease in tropical and subtropical areas of the world. Several methods for predicting the occurrence of dengue fever in Taiwan have been proposed. However, to the best of our knowledge, no study has investigated the relationship between air quality indices (AQIs) and dengue fever in Taiwan.

RESULTS

This study aimed to develop a dengue fever prediction model in which meteorological factors, a vector index, and AQIs were incorporated into different machine learning algorithms. A total of 805 meteorological records from 2013 to 2015 were collected from government open-source data after preprocessing. In addition to well-known dengue-related factors, we investigated the effects of novel variables, including particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10), PM2.5, and an ultraviolet index, for predicting dengue fever occurrence. The collected dataset was randomly divided into an 80% training set and a 20% test set. The experimental results showed that the random forests achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9547 for the test set, which was the best compared with the other machine learning algorithms. In addition, the temperature was the most important factor in our variable importance analysis, and it showed a positive effect on dengue fever at < 30 °C but had less of an effect at > 30 °C. The AQIs were not as important as temperature, but one was selected in the process of filtering the variables and showed a certain influence on the final results.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study is the first to demonstrate that AQI negatively affects dengue fever occurrence in Taiwan. The proposed prediction model can be used as an early warning system for public health to prevent dengue fever outbreaks.

The defense of Shangri-La: Protecting isolated communities by periodic infection screening in the worst future pandemic

In the worst future pandemic, effective vaccines and medicines could be unavailable for a long time. In such circumstances, it is necessary to evaluate whether a periodic screening can protect isolated communities and critical facilities and avoid a complete shutdown. In this study, we introduced an epidemiological model that included the essential parameters of infection transmission and screening. With varying parameters, we studied the dynamics of viral infection in the isolated communities. In the scenario with a periodic infection screening once per 3 days and a viral basic reproduction number 3.0, >85% of the infection waves have a duration <7 days and the infection size in each of the waves is generally <4 individuals when the efficiency of infection discovery is 0.9 in the screening. When the period of screening was elongated to once per 7 days, the cases of infection dramatically increased to 5 folds of that mentioned previously. Further, with a weak discovery efficiency of 0.7 and the aforementioned low screening frequency, the spread of infection would be out of control. Our study suggests that frequent periodic screening is capable of controlling a future epidemic in isolated communities without other measures.

Spatial immunization to abate disease spreading in transportation hubs

Proximity social interactions are crucial for infectious diseases transmission. Crowded agglomerations pose serious risk of triggering superspreading events. Locations like transportation hubs (airports and stations) are designed to optimize logistic efficiency, not to reduce crowding, and are characterized by a constant in and out flow of people. Here, we analyze the paradigmatic example of London Heathrow, one of the busiest European airports. Thanks to a dataset of anonymized individuals' trajectories, we can model the spreading of different diseases to localize the contagion hotspots and to propose a spatial immunization policy targeting them to reduce disease spreading risk. We also detect the most vulnerable destinations to contagions produced at the airport and quantify the benefits of the spatial immunization technique to prevent regional and global disease diffusion. This method is immediately generalizable to train, metro and bus stations and to other facilities such as commercial or convention centers.

A pre-symptomatic incubation model for precision strategies of screening, quarantine, and isolation based on imported COVID-19 cases in Taiwan

Facing the emerging COVID viral variants and the uneven distribution of vaccine worldwide, imported pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases play a pivotal role in border control strategies. A stochastic disease process and computer simulation experiments with Bayesian underpinning was therefore developed to model pre-symptomatic disease progression during incubation period on which we were based to provide precision strategies for containing the resultant epidemic caused by imported COVID-19 cases. We then applied the proposed model to data on 1051 imported COVID-19 cases among inbound passengers to Taiwan between March 2020 and April 2021. The overall daily rate (per 100,000) of pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases was estimated as 106 (95% credible interval (CrI): 95-117) in March-June 2020, fell to 37 (95% CrI: 28-47) in July-September 2020 (p < 0.0001), resurged to 141 (95% CrI: 118-164) in October-December 2020 (p < 0.0001), and declined to 90 (95% CrI: 73-108) in January-April 2021 (p = 0.0004). Given the median dwelling time, over 82% cases would progress from pre-symptomatic to symptomatic phase in 5-day quarantine. The time required for quarantine given two real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests depends on the risk of departing countries, testing and quarantine strategies, and whether the passengers have vaccine jabs. Our proposed four-compartment stochastic process and computer simulation experiments design underpinning Bayesian MCMC algorithm facilitated the development of precision strategies for imported COVID-19 cases.

The effect of advances in transportation on the spread of the coronavirus disease: The last is Africa and endemic

For a long time in the future, transportation will be used only by limited systems that are quarantine friendly. Besides, depending on the circumstances, international or inter-regional travel may be restricted. However, the African continent comprises mostly of developing countries with poor healthcare systems and low health literacy. As a result, it is highly likely that Africa could suffer greater damage than any other region once an outbreak occurs. The fact that countries in Africa must be most concerned about is that COVID-19 may become endemic, and the outbreak may continue for a very long time.

Use of seroprevalence to guide dengue vaccination plans for older adults in a dengue non-endemic country

A shift in dengue cases toward the adult population, accompanied by an increased risk of severe cases of dengue in the elderly, has created an important emerging issue in the past decade. To understand the level of past DENV infection among older adults after a large dengue outbreak occurred in southern Taiwan in 2015, we screened 1498 and 2603 serum samples from healthy residents aged ≥ 40 years in Kaohsiung City and Tainan City, respectively, to assess the seroprevalence of anti-DENV IgG in 2016. Seropositive samples were verified to exclude cross-reaction from Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), using DENV/JEV-NS1 indirect IgG ELISA. We further identified viral serotypes and secondary DENV infections among positive samples in the two cities. The overall age-standardized seroprevalence of DENV-IgG among participants was 25.77% in Kaohsiung and 11.40% in Tainan, and the seroprevalence was significantly higher in older age groups of both cities. Although the percentages of secondary DENV infection in Kaohsiung and Tainan were very similar (43.09% and 44.76%, respectively), DENV-1 and DENV-2 spanned a wider age range in Kaohsiung, whereas DENV-2 was dominant in Tainan. As very few studies have obtained the serostatus of DENV infection in older adults and the elderly, this study highlights the need for further investigation into antibody status, as well as the safety and efficacy of dengue vaccination in these older populations.

An Overview of Thermal Infrared Imaging-Based Screenings during Pandemic Emergencies

Infrared thermal imaging (IRI) is a contact-less technology able to monitor human skin temperature for biomedical applications and in real-life contexts. Its capacity to detect fever was exploited for mass screening during past epidemic emergencies as well as for the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, the only assessment of fever may not be selective for the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Hence, novel approaches for IRI data analysis have been investigated. The present review aims to describe how IRI have been employed during the last epidemics, highlighting the potentialities and the limitations of this technology to contain the contagions. Specifically, the methods employed for automatic face recognition and fever assessment and IRI's performances in mass screening at airports and hospitals are reviewed. Moreover, an overview of novel machine learning methods for IRI data analysis, aimed to identify respiratory diseases, is provided. In addition, IRI-based smart technologies developed to support the healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic are described. Finally, relevant guidelines to fully exploit IRI for COVID-19 identification are defined, to improve the effectiveness of IRI in the detection of the SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Review of the efficacy of infrared thermography for screening infectious diseases with applications to COVID-19

Purpose: The recent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which spread across the globe in a very short period of time, revealed that the transmission control of disease is a crucial step to prevent an outbreak and effective screening for viral infectious diseases is necessary. Since the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003, infrared thermography (IRT) has been considered a gold standard method for screening febrile individuals at the time of pandemics. The objective of this review is to evaluate the efficacy of IRT for screening infectious diseases with specific applications to COVID-19. Approach: A literature review was performed in Google Scholar, PubMed, and ScienceDirect to search for studies evaluating IRT screening from 2002 to present using relevant keywords. Additional literature searches were done to evaluate IRT in comparison to traditional core body temperature measurements and assess the benefits of measuring additional vital signs for infectious disease screening. Results: Studies have reported on the unreliability of IRT due to poor sensitivity and specificity in detecting true core body temperature and its inability to identify asymptomatic carriers. Airport mass screening using IRT was conducted during occurrences of SARS, Dengue, Swine Flu, and Ebola with reported sensitivities as low as zero. Other studies reported that screening other vital signs such as heart and respiratory rates can lead to more robust methods for early infection detection. Conclusions: Studies evaluating IRT showed varied results in its efficacy for screening infectious diseases. This suggests the need to assess additional physiological parameters to increase the sensitivity and specificity of non-invasive biosensors.

Real-time dengue forecast for outbreak alerts in Southern Taiwan

Dengue fever is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. In recent decades, dengue fever has spread throughout the world. In 2014 and 2015, southern Taiwan experienced its most serious dengue outbreak in recent years. Some statistical models have been established in the past, however, these models may not be suitable for predicting huge outbreaks in 2014 and 2015. The control of dengue fever has become the primary task of local health agencies. This study attempts to predict the occurrence of dengue fever in order to achieve the purpose of timely warning. We applied a newly developed autoregressive model (AR model) to assess the association between daily weather variability and daily dengue case number in 2014 and 2015 in Kaohsiung, the largest city in southern Taiwan. This model also contained additional lagged weather predictors, and developed 5-day-ahead and 15-day-ahead predictive models. Our results indicate that numbers of dengue cases in Kaohsiung are associated with humidity and the biting rate (BR). Our model is simple, intuitive and easy to use. The developed model can be embedded in a "real-time" schedule, and the data (at present) can be updated daily or weekly based on the needs of public health workers. In this study, a simple model using only meteorological factors performed well. The proposed real-time forecast model can help health agencies take public health actions to mitigate the influences of the epidemic.

Meteorological conditions are the most frequently mentioned factors in the study of dengue fever. Some of the main factors other than the purely meteorological about which the public-health authorities might have data, such as numbers of cases or other current measurements of dengue outbreaks in neighboring cities, had been used in some of the past dengue studies. In this study, we developed models for predicting dengue case number based on past dengue case data and meteorological data. The goal of the models is to provide early warning of the occurrence of dengue fever to assist public health agencies in preparing an epidemic response plan.

Epidemiological analysis of the Kaohsiung city strategy for dengue fever quarantine and epidemic prevention

Background

Dengue is endemic in over 100 countries and is an important public health problem worldwide. Dengue fever is not endemic in Taiwan; the importation of dengue viruses from neighboring countries via close commercial links and air travel is considered to be the cause of local outbreaks. Therefore, efforts toward disease control have focused on preventing the importation of dengue into Taiwan. In this study, we investigated the relationships between the numbers of imported and indigenous dengue cases to test the validity of this strategy.

Methods

Data on cases of dengue fever that occurred between 2013 and 2018 were obtained from the surveillance systems of the Taiwan Center for Disease Control and Kaohsiung City Health Department. Standard epidemiological data, including the monthly numbers of indigenous and imported cases of dengue, were calculated. Potential associations between the numbers of indigenous and imported cases were investigated using correlation analyses.

Results

We identified a possible relationship between the period of disease concealment and the number of imported dengue cases, which resulted in epidemics of indigenous dengue fever within local communities. Further analysis of confirmed cases during previous epidemics in Kaohsiung City found that the risk of indigenous dengue fever may be related to the likelihood that patients with imported dengue fever will stay within local communities.

Conclusion

Given the correlations found between imported and indigenous cases of dengue fever, as well as the relationship between the disease concealment period and the risk of indigenous dengue fever, prevention of disease importation and efficient identification of dengue cases within high-risk communities remain the major priorities for disease control.

Estimating the Threshold Effects of Climate on Dengue: A Case Study of Taiwan

Climate change is regarded as one of the major factors enhancing the transmission intensity of dengue fever. In this study, we estimated the threshold effects of temperature on Aedes mosquito larval index as an early warning tool for dengue prevention. We also investigated the relationship between dengue vector index and dengue epidemics in Taiwan using weekly panel data for 17 counties from January 2012 to May 2019. To achieve our goals, we first applied the panel threshold regression technique to test for threshold effects and determine critical temperature values. Data were then further decomposed into different sets corresponding to different temperature regimes. Finally, negative binomial regression models were applied to assess the non-linear relationship between meteorological factors and Breteau index (BI). At the national level, we found that a 1°C temperature increase caused the expected value of BI to increase by 0.09 units when the temperature is less than 27.21 °C, and by 0.26 units when the temperature is greater than 27.21 °C. At the regional level, the dengue vector index was more sensitive to temperature changes because double threshold effects were found in the southern Taiwan model. For southern Taiwan, as the temperature increased by 1°C, the expected value of BI increased by 0.29, 0.63, and 1.49 units when the average temperature was less than 27.27 °C, between 27.27 and 30.17 °C, and higher than 30.17 °C, respectively. In addition, the effects of precipitation and relative humidity on BI became stronger when the average temperature exceeded the thresholds. Regarding the impacts of climate change on BI, our results showed that the potential effects on BI range from 3.5 to 54.42% under alternative temperature scenarios. By combining threshold regression techniques with count data regression models, this study provides evidence of threshold effects between climate factors and the dengue vector index. The proposed threshold of temperature could be incorporated into the implementation of public health measures and risk prediction to prevent and control dengue fever in the future.

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of imported dengue fever among inbound passengers: Infrared thermometer-based active surveillance at an international airport

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever is endemic in tropical and subtropical areas, especially Southeast Asia. International air travel facilitates the spread of dengue across and within borders. To date, no predictive factors have been established for assessing risk of dengue among febrile travelers.

METHODS

Since 2006, Taiwan has operated a program of infrared thermometer-based non-contact active surveillance at Taoyuan International Airport (TPE). All inbound passengers from dengue-endemic countries who are febrile (tympanic temperature ≥38°C) undergo routine laboratory testing for dengue. We analyzed clinical and epidemiological characteristics of all tested passengers entering Taiwan via TPE in 2011 to identify the predictive factors of dengue infection.

RESULTS

In 2011, of the 3,719 febrile passengers from dengue-endemic countries, 74 (2.0%) had laboratory-confirmed dengue infection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that those who were aged ≥60 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 8.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-29.6) and had self-reported fever (aOR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.5-4.1), skin rashes (aOR, 11.0; 95% CI, 3.4-35.1), or a tympanic temperature ≥39°C (aOR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.7-4.9) were significantly more likely to have dengue (all p values < 0.05). Compared with travelers who stayed in dengue-endemic countries for ≤7 days, those who traveled 8-14, 15-21, 22-28, and ≥29 days were also more likely to be infected (aORs of 10.2, 14.9, 39.0 and 12.0, respectively).

CONCLUSION

These clinical and epidemiological features can facilitate timely recognition and diagnosis of imported dengue in febrile inbound passengers and therefore help prevent domestic transmission of dengue virus.

Exit and Entry Screening Practices for Infectious Diseases among Travelers at Points of Entry: Looking for Evidence on Public Health Impact

A scoping search and a systematic literature review were conducted to give an insight on entry and exit screening referring to travelers at points of entry, by analyzing published evidence on practices, guidelines, and experiences in the past 15 years worldwide. Grey literature, PubMed. and Scopus were searched using specific terms. Most of the available data identified through the systematic literature review concerned entry screening measures at airports. Little evidence is available about entry and exit screening measure implementation and effectiveness at ports and ground crossings. Exit screening was part of the World Health Organisation's (WHO) temporary recommendations for implementation in certain points of entry, for specific time periods. Exit screening measures for Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in the three most affected West African countries did not identify any cases and showed zero sensitivity and very low specificity. The percentages of confirmed cases identified out of the total numbers of travelers that passed through entry screening measures in various countries worldwide for Influenza Pandemic (H1N1) and EVD in West Africa were zero or extremely low. Entry screening measures for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) did not detect any confirmed SARS cases in Australia, Canada, and Singapore. Despite the ineffectiveness of entry and exit screening measures, authors reported several important concomitant positive effects that their impact is difficult to assess, including discouraging travel of ill persons, raising awareness, and educating the traveling public and maintaining operation of flights from/to the affected areas. Exit screening measures in affected areas are important and should be applied jointly with other measures including information strategies, epidemiological investigation, contact tracing, vaccination, and quarantine to achieve a comprehensive outbreak management response. Based on review results, an algorithm about decision-making for entry/exit screening was developed.

Health screening strategies for international air travelers during an epidemic or pandemic

Air travelers can carry an infectious disease's pathogenic microorganism in their bodies and spread the disease from one country to another in a few days. To delay the spread, health screening stations may be set up at airport terminals to screen travelers. This research tested three different health screening strategies, each with a different combination of screening stations at trip origins, destinations and connecting airports. Discrete event simulations were performed, based on the 2014 to 2016 Ebola virus epidemic, with special focus on travelers from the West African countries traveling to the United States, including travelers who transferred flights at airports in European Union member states. The effectiveness of the screening strategies was analyzed in terms of correct detection, missed detection and false alarm rate. The results showed that exit screening at trip origins brought big improvements in the performance measurements compared to no screening. However, additional screening at the destinations and connecting airports contributed marginal benefits.

Risk prediction system for dengue transmission based on high resolution weather data

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the fastest spreading vector-borne viral disease, resulting in an estimated 390 million infections annually. Precise prediction of many attributes related to dengue is still a challenge due to the complex dynamics of the disease. Important attributes to predict include: the risk of and risk factors for an infection; infection severity; and the timing and magnitude of outbreaks. In this work, we build a model for predicting the risk of dengue transmission using high-resolution weather data. The level of dengue transmission risk depends on the vector density, hence we predict risk via vector prediction.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We make use of surveillance data on Aedes aegypti larvae collected by the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control as part of the national routine entomological surveillance of dengue, and weather data simulated using the IBM's Containerized Forecasting Workflow, a high spatial- and temporal-resolution forecasting system. We propose a two stage risk prediction system for assessing dengue transmission via Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In stage one, we perform a logistic regression to determine whether larvae are present or absent at the locations of interest using weather attributes as the explanatory variables. The results are then aggregated to an administrative division, with presence in the division determined by a threshold percentage of larvae positive locations resulting from a bootstrap approach. In stage two, larvae counts are estimated for the predicted larvae positive divisions from stage one, using a zero-inflated negative binomial model. This model identifies the larvae positive locations with 71% accuracy and predicts the larvae numbers producing a coverage probability of 98% over 95% nominal prediction intervals. This two-stage model improves the overall accuracy of identifying larvae positive locations by 29%, and the mean squared error of predicted larvae numbers by 9.6%, against a single-stage approach which uses a zero-inflated binomial regression approach.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate a risk prediction system using high resolution weather data can provide valuable insight to the distribution of risk over a geographical region. The work also shows that a two-stage approach is beneficial in predicting risk in non-homogeneous regions, where the risk is localised.

Integrated Aedes management for the control of Aedes-borne diseases

BACKGROUND

Diseases caused by Aedes-borne viruses, such as dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever, are emerging and reemerging globally. The causes are multifactorial and include global trade, international travel, urbanisation, water storage practices, lack of resources for intervention, and an inadequate evidence base for the public health impact of Aedes control tools. National authorities need comprehensive evidence-based guidance on how and when to implement Aedes control measures tailored to local entomological and epidemiological conditions.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This review is one of a series being conducted by the Worldwide Insecticide resistance Network (WIN). It describes a framework for implementing Integrated Aedes Management (IAM) to improve control of diseases caused by Aedes-borne viruses based on available evidence. IAM consists of a portfolio of operational actions and priorities for the control of Aedes-borne viruses that are tailored to different epidemiological and entomological risk scenarios. The framework has 4 activity pillars: (i) integrated vector and disease surveillance, (ii) vector control, (iii) community mobilisation, and (iv) intra- and intersectoral collaboration as well as 4 supporting activities: (i) capacity building, (ii) research, (iii) advocacy, and (iv) policies and laws.

CONCLUSIONS

IAM supports implementation of the World Health Organisation Global Vector Control Response (WHO GVCR) and provides a comprehensive framework for health authorities to devise and deliver sustainable, effective, integrated, community-based, locally adapted vector control strategies in order to reduce the burden of Aedes-transmitted arboviruses. The success of IAM requires strong commitment and leadership from governments to maintain proactive disease prevention programs and preparedness for rapid responses to outbreaks.

Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of dengue viruses imported into Taiwan during 2011-2016

A total of 1,596 laboratory-confirmed imported dengue cases were identified in Taiwan during 2011–2016. Most of the imported cases arrived from Southeast Asia as well as the Indian subcontinent, the Pacific region, Latin America, Australia and Africa. Phylogenetic analyses of the complete envelope protein gene sequences from 784 imported dengue virus (DENV) isolates were conducted, and the results suggest that the DENV-1 genotype I and DENV-2 Cosmopolitan genotype comprise the predominant serotype/genotype of DENV strains circulating in Southeast Asia. The DENV-1 genotype III, DENV-3 genotype III and DENV-4 genotype I and II strains were found to be newly emerging in several Southeast Asian countries. Our results also showed that geographical restrictions of DENV-1 genotype I, DENV-1 genotype III and DENV-2 Cosmopolitan genotype are becoming blurred, indicating the extensive introductions and continuous expansions of DENV strains between nations in Southeast Asia. In this study, we present the geographic distribution and dynamic transmission of DENV strains circulating in Southeast Asian countries. In addition, we demonstrated local dengue epidemics caused by several imported DENV strains in Taiwan during 2011–2016.

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in the world. The expansion of dengue viruses to different parts of the world has been accelerated by the increase in worldwide travel and trade. In this study, we present the results of a laboratory-based dengue surveillance in Taiwan during 2011–2016. A total of 1,596 laboratory-confirmed imported dengue cases were identified. The travelers were infected in 29 countries in Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, the Pacific region, Latin America, Australia and Africa. Phylogenetic analyses of the envelope gene sequences of 784 imported dengue virus isolates suggest that the DENV-1 genotype I and DENV-2 Cosmopolitan genotype comprise the predominant serotype/genotype DENV strains circulating in Southeast Asia. Our results also showed that geographical restrictions of some of the DENV genotypes are becoming blurred, indicating the extensive introductions and continuous expansions of DENV strains between countries in Southeast Asia. In addition, we demonstrated dengue outbreaks in Taiwan caused by viruses imported from Asia and the Americas. The DENV envelope gene sequences from this study will contribute to a better understanding of the genetic evolution, dynamic transmission and global expansion of dengue viruses.

The role of inter-regional flows in the spread of epidemics in a city of regional influence with a tropical climate

The aim of this research was to investigate the origin of imported cases of dengue in the city of Araraquara, Brazil and to describe the disease's main epidemiological characteristics. The study encompassed all confirmed cases of dengue recorded in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases (SINAN) [Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação] from 1998 to 2013. Cases whose origin of infection was likely located outside Araraquara were considered imported. The epidemiological study entailed a descriptive analysis of the data, regarding the distribution of cases by sex, age, and classification of imported and autochthonous cases. A geographic information system was used to map flows and estimate distances. There were 6,913 confirmed cases, 419 of which were imported. In most cases, the origin of infection was located in the state of São Paulo as well as other Brazilian regions. The results indicate the relevance of imported cases and differences in the epidemiological profile with respect to age and sex. Conclusions indicate the need to increase epidemiological and environmental health surveillance at ports, airports, truck stops, and bus and train terminals.

Vertical transmission of dengue virus in the Yogyakarta airport area

Background

International Health Regulations controls international travel including human movement, disease vector, and imported items to prevent the spread of dengue, especially in seaports, airports, and border crossing posts. This study aimed to determine dengue Transovarial Transmission Index (TTI) and distribution of dengue virus in the areas around Adisucipto Airport of Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

Methods

The study was a descriptive analytic study with cross sectional design, conducted by mapping the spread of the dengue virus and identifying TTI in Adisucipto Airport. A total of 145 ovitraps were installed in both perimeter and buffer areas of the airport. Positive Ovitrap Index (OI), TTI, and serotype of dengue virus were examined. The TTI was identified using immunocytochemistry immunoperoxidase streptavidin biotin complex (IISBC) method in mosquito head squash preparations.

Results

OI in the buffer area was 32 (45.1%), whereas OI in the perimeter area was 24 (32.4%). The TTI in the buffer and perimeter areas were 21 (18.3%) and 11 (18.9%), respectively. The TTI was found greater in the Aedes aegypti population compared to the Aedes albopictus population, both in the perimeter area (20% versus 16.7%) and the buffer area (20.3% versus 16.1%). Dengue virus serotype-2 (DENV-2) and dengue virus serotype-3 (DENV-3) were predominantly found in Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus.

Conclusions

Buffer areas of Adisucipto Airport of Yogyakarta have higher risk as breeding sites for Aedes spp., predominantly DENV-2 and DENV-3 serotypes. High OI shows that the areas are likely to have higher risk of developing dengue outbreak.

Screening in Public Health and Clinical Care: Similarities and Differences in Definitions, Types, and Aims - A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

The concept of screening can be many times misleading to many people. This may be partly due to the way screening is described and explained in textbooks and journal articles.

AIM

To review prominent public health and epidemiology textbooks, dictionaries, and relevant journal publications for definitions and examples of screening, with the aim of identifying common usages and concepts, as well as sources of potential confusion.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Commonly available epidemiology and public health textbooks and peer reviewed journals were searched for definitions and examples of screening. The search located seven journal articles, 10 textbooks, and one dictionary. The search platforms used were Pubmed, BIOSIS, EMBASE, Medline-OVID and Scopus under the Epidemiology and Biostatics subject head listed with Life Sciences.

RESULTS

Descriptions of screening give varying emphasis to whether it is a test or a program, the aims of screening, the setting in which it is conducted, eligibility criteria, who initiates and who is intended to benefit and whether the condition being screened is an infectious or chronic disease or a risk-elevated state. Four essentially different 'types' of screening are described, using seven terms and occasionally contradictory examples. The detection of asymptomatic infectious cases is gradually changing from screening to surveillance as part of infection control.

CONCLUSION

Voluntary screening programs rely on high participation to be effective and support and trust of the public are essential for the continued success of the public health profession. Consistent terminology is important for patients, providers and policymakers to understand what screening is and is not. Clear definitions are needed if we are to evaluate and communicate the risks and benefits of screening in public health.

The Critical Role of Early Dengue Surveillance and Limitations of Clinical Reporting - Implications for Non-Endemic Countries

The increasing dengue burden and epidemic severity worldwide have highlighted the need to improve surveillance. In non-endemic areas such as Taiwan, where outbreaks start mostly with imported cases from Southeast Asia, a closer examination of surveillance dynamics to detect cases early is necessary. To evaluate problems with dengue surveillance and investigate the involvement of different factors at various epidemic stages, we investigated 632 laboratory-confirmed indigenous dengue cases in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan during 2009–2010. The estimated sensitivity of clinical surveillance was 82.4% (521/632). Initially, the modified serological surveillance (targeting only the contacts of laboratory-confirmed dengue cases) identified clinically unrecognized afebrile cases in younger patients who visited private clinics and accounted for 30.4% (35/115) of the early-stage cases. Multivariate regression indicated that hospital/medical center visits [Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 11.6, 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.3–21.4], middle epidemic stage [aOR: 2.4 (1.2–4.7)], fever [aOR: 2.3 (2.3–12.9)], and musculo-articular pain [aOR: 1.9 (1.05–3.3)] were significantly associated with clinical reporting. However, cases with pruritus/rash [aOR: 0.47 (0.26–0.83)] and diarrhea [aOR: 0.47 (0.26–0.85)] were underreported. In conclusion, multiple factors contributed to dengue surveillance problems. To prevent a large-scale epidemic and minimize severe dengue cases, there is a need for integrated surveillance incorporating entomological, clinical, serological, and virological surveillance systems to detect early cases, followed by immediate prevention and control measures and continuous evaluation to ensure effectiveness. This effort will be particularly important for an arbovirus, such as Zika virus, with a high asymptomatic infection ratio. For dengue- non-endemic countries, we recommend serological surveillance be implemented in areas with high Aedes mosquito indices or many breeding sites. Syndromic surveillance, spatial analysis and monitoring changes in epidemiological characteristics using a geographical information system, as well as epidemic prediction models involving epidemiological, meteorological and environmental variables will be helpful for early risk communication to increase awareness.

Laboratory-Based Surveillance and Molecular Characterization of Dengue Viruses in Taiwan, 2014

We present the results of a laboratory-based surveillance of dengue in Taiwan in 2014. A total of 240 imported dengue cases were identified. The patients had arrived from 16 countries, and Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and China were the most frequent importing countries. Phylogenetic analyses showed that genotype I of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) and the cosmopolitan genotype of DENV-2 were the predominant DENV strains circulating in southeast Asia. The 2014 dengue epidemic was the largest ever to occur in Taiwan since World War II, and there were 15,492 laboratory-confirmed indigenous dengue cases. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the explosive dengue epidemic in southern Taiwan was caused by a DENV-1 strain of genotype I imported from Indonesia. There were several possible causes of this outbreak, including delayed notification of the outbreak, limited staff and resources for control measures, abnormal weather conditions, and a serious gas pipeline explosion in the dengue hot spot areas in Kaohsiung City. However, the results of this surveillance indicated that both active and passive surveillance systems should be strengthened so appropriate public health measures can be taken promptly to prevent large-scale dengue outbreaks.

Re-assess Vector Indices Threshold as an Early Warning Tool for Predicting Dengue Epidemic in a Dengue Non-endemic Country

Background

Despite dengue dynamics being driven by complex interactions between human hosts, mosquito vectors and viruses that are influenced by climate factors, an operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk in a dengue non-endemic area has not been developed. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the temporal relationship between meteorological variables, entomological surveillance indices and confirmed dengue cases; and to establish the threshold for entomological surveillance indices including three mosquito larval indices [Breteau (BI), Container (CI) and House indices (HI)] and one adult index (AI) as an early warning tool for dengue epidemic.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Epidemiological, entomological and meteorological data were analyzed from 2005 to 2012 in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. The successive waves of dengue outbreaks with different magnitudes were recorded in Kaohsiung City, and involved a dominant serotype during each epidemic. The annual indigenous dengue cases usually started from May to June and reached a peak in October to November. Vector data from 2005–2012 showed that the peak of the adult mosquito population was followed by a peak in the corresponding dengue activity with a lag period of 1–2 months. Therefore, we focused the analysis on the data from May to December and the high risk district, where the inspection of the immature and mature mosquitoes was carried out on a weekly basis and about 97.9% dengue cases occurred. The two-stage model was utilized here to estimate the risk and time-lag effect of annual dengue outbreaks in Taiwan. First, Poisson regression was used to select the optimal subset of variables and time-lags for predicting the number of dengue cases, and the final results of the multivariate analysis were selected based on the smallest AIC value. Next, each vector index models with selected variables were subjected to multiple logistic regression models to examine the accuracy of predicting the occurrence of dengue cases. The results suggested that Model-AI, BI, CI and HI predicted the occurrence of dengue cases with 83.8, 87.8, 88.3 and 88.4% accuracy, respectively. The predicting threshold based on individual Model-AI, BI, CI and HI was 0.97, 1.16, 1.79 and 0.997, respectively.

Conclusion/Significance

There was little evidence of quantifiable association among vector indices, meteorological factors and dengue transmission that could reliably be used for outbreak prediction. Our study here provided the proof-of-concept of how to search for the optimal model and determine the threshold for dengue epidemics. Since those factors used for prediction varied, depending on the ecology and herd immunity level under different geological areas, different thresholds may be developed for different countries using a similar structure of the two-stage model.

With the continuously high levels of worldwide dengue transmission, predicting dengue outbreaks in advance of their occurrence or identifying specific locations where outbreak risks are highest is of critical importance. However, only few studies have been conducted in dengue non-endemic countries to evaluate the association of vector index with the occurrence of dengue cases; and the establishment of an early warning signal would significantly enhance the public health intervention. Our study here provided the proof-of-concept results, utilizing a two-stage model to identify the best set of lag effects of meteorological and entomological variables, explaining dengue epidemics based on the data obtained from Taiwan, which is a dengue-non-endemic country. Each of the vector indices when combined with the meteorological factors has better performance compared to the prediction using AI, BI, CI and HI alone, with 83.8, 87.8, 88.3 and 88.4% accuracy, respectively. Because of the complex interplays between the size of human hosts and movement, environmental factors and dynamic changes of mosquito population and density, each country should consider its own individual data and situation and apply this two-stage model to find the optimal predictive models for allocating public health resources and prevention strategies.

Maintaining human health at the border of Taiwan

Because international travel is now more frequent and convenient, communicable diseases that occur in one region can be transmitted to another area within a few hours. For this reason, many efforts have been undertaken in Taiwan to establish a comprehensive border quarantine system to protect against imported diseases that may threaten the health of the population. According to the International Health Regulations (2005), decades of development strategies for border quarantine have covered not only routine practices and specific measures for handling a pandemic but also have drawn attention to the development of core capacities at designated points of entry. However, as a result of the rapidly increasing number of points of entry, changes in transportation patterns, and the emergence of diseases, current border quarantine practice is being challenged to maintain human resources and the efficacy of entry screening. It is therefore critical to reexamine border quarantine strategies that will fit future needs and national conditions. This article reviews the current border health practices in Taiwan and discusses 5 key challenges to be further considered and improved. The findings can serve as a guide for further policy reform in Taiwan and other countries.

Ebola virus disease in nonendemic countries

The 2014 West African outbreak of Ebola virus disease was unprecedented in its scale and has resulted in transmissions outside endemic countries. Clinicians in nonendemic countries will most likely face the disease in returning travelers, either among healthcare workers, expatriates, or visiting friends and relatives. Clinical suspicion for the disease must be heightened for travelers or contacts presenting with compatible clinical syndromes, and strict infection control measures must be promptly implemented to minimize the risk of secondary transmission within healthcare settings or in the community. We present a concise review on human filoviral disease with an emphasis on issues that are pertinent to clinicians practicing in nonendemic countries.

Usefulness and applicability of infectious disease control measures in air travel: a review

BACKGROUND

Air travel has opened up opportunities for world transportation, but has also increased infectious disease transmission and public health risks. To control disease spread, airlines and governments are able to implement control measures in air travel. This study inventories experiences and applicability of infectious disease control measures.

METHODS

A literature search was performed in PubMed, including studies between 1990 and 2013. Search terms included air travel terms and intervention terms. Interventions were scored according outcome, required resources, preparation, passenger inconvenience and passenger compliance.

RESULTS

Provision of information to travelers, isolation, health monitoring, hygiene measures and vector control reportedly prevent disease spread and are well applicable. Contact tracing can be supportive in controlling disease spread but depend on disease characteristics. Exit and entry screening, quarantine and travel restrictions are unlikely to be very effective in preventing disease spread, while implementation requires extensive resources or travel implications.

CONCLUSIONS

Control measures should focus on providing information towards travelers, isolation, health monitoring and hygiene measures. Appropriateness of measures depends on disease characteristics, and the required resources. As most studies analyze one type of measure in a particular situation, further research comparing the effectiveness of measures is recommended.

Fever Screening and Detection of Febrile Arrivals at an International Airport in Korea: Association among Self-reported Fever, Infrared Thermal Camera Scanning, and Tympanic Temperature

OBJECTIVES:

The purpose of this research was to measure fever prevalence and the effectiveness of a fever screening procedure in detecting febrile arrivals at an international airport in Korea.

METHODS:

Data were retrieved from arrivals’ health declaration forms and questionnaires for febrile arrivals at an international airport collected by a national quarantine station during the year 2012. Self-reported health declaration forms were returned by 355,887 arrivals (61% of the total arrivals). Of these, 608 symptomatic arrivals (0.2%) including 6 febrile arrivals were analyzed.

RESULTS:

Fever prevalence at an international airport in Korea was 0.002%. Self-reported fever was significantly positively associated with tympanic temperature (p<0.001). The difference between the thermal camera temperature (36.83°C) and tympanic (or ear) temperature (38.14°C) was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS:

The findings imply that a procedure for mass detection of fever such as self-reported questionnaires and thermal camera scanning may serve as an effective tool for detecting febrile arrivals at quarantine stations. Future research can benefit from looking at the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the entry screening system.

A Portable Infection Screening System Designed for Onboard Entry Screening Based on Multi-Parameter Vital Signs

After outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, many international airport quarantines adopted fever-based screening to identify infected individuals using infrared thermography to control global pandemic. Unfortunately, the sensitivity of fever-based screening system did not exceed 70.4% at Narita International Airport. In order to achieve accurate onboard entry screening for highly contagious infectious diseases, the authors developed a portable system designed for onboard entry screening with linear discriminant analysis. Within several tens of seconds, the system automatically discriminates infected individuals from normal subjects using measured heart rate, respiratory rate, as well as facial surface temperature determined by thermography. The size of system is small enough to be placed on airplane tray tables. The authors tested on 68 subjects including 12 influenza patients to evaluate the system. The result showed sensitivity of 91.7% and specificity of 92.9%. The system seems to be promising for onboard infection screening to safeguard public health.

Entry and exit screening of airline travellers during the A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic: a retrospective evaluation

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the screening measures that would have been required to assess all travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico by air at the start of the 2009 pandemic.

METHODS

Data from flight itineraries for travellers who flew from Mexico were used to estimate the number of international airports where health screening measures would have been needed, and the number of travellers who would have had to be screened, to assess all air travellers who could have transported the H1N1 influenza virus out of Mexico during the initial stages of the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic.

FINDINGS

Exit screening at 36 airports in Mexico, or entry screening of travellers arriving on direct flights from Mexico at 82 airports in 26 other countries, would have resulted in the assessment of all air travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico at the start of the pandemic. Entry screening of 116 travellers arriving from Mexico by direct or connecting flights would have been necessary for every one traveller at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09. Screening at just eight airports would have resulted in the assessment of 90% of all air travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico in the early stages of the pandemic.

CONCLUSION

During the earliest stages of the A(H1N1) pandemic, most public health benefits potentially attainable through the screening of air travellers could have been achieved by screening travellers at only eight airports.

Climate change and mosquito-borne diseases in China: a review

China has experienced noticeable changes in climate over the past 100 years and the potential impact climate change has on transmission of mosquito-borne infectious diseases poses a risk to Chinese populations. The aims of this paper are to summarize what is known about the impact of climate change on the incidence and prevalence of malaria, dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis in China and to provide important information and direction for adaptation policy making. Fifty-five papers met the inclusion criteria for this study. Examination of these studies indicates that variability in temperature, precipitation, wind, and extreme weather events is linked to transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in some regions of China. However, study findings are inconsistent across geographical locations and this requires strengthening current evidence for timely development of adaptive options. After synthesis of available information we make several key adaptation recommendations including: improving current surveillance and monitoring systems; concentrating adaptation strategies and policies on vulnerable communities; strengthening adaptive capacity of public health systems; developing multidisciplinary approaches sustained by an new mechanism of inter-sectional coordination; and increasing awareness and mobilization of the general public.

Dengue outbreaks in high-income area, Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, 2003-2009

Cases distribute in a clustered pattern, and elderly persons have the highest risk for illness and death.

Kaohsiung City, a modern metropolis of 1.5 million persons, has been the focus of dengue virus activity in Taiwan for several decades. The aim of this study was to provide a temporal and spatial description of dengue virus epidemiology in Kaohsiung City by using data for all laboratory-confirmed dengue cases during 2003–2009. We investigated age- and sex-dependent incidence rates and the spatiotemporal patterns of all cases confirmed through passive or active surveillance. Elderly persons were at particularly high risk for dengue virus–related sickness and death. Of all confirmed cases, ≈75% were detected through passive surveillance activities; case-patients detected through active surveillance included immediate family members, neighbors, and colleagues of confirmed case-patients. Changing patterns of case clustering could be due to the effect of unmeasured environmental and demographic factors.

Re-emergence of dengue virus type 3 in Canton, China, 2009-2010, associated with multiple introductions through different geographical routes

Background

Endemic dengue virus type 3 (DENV-3) infections have not been reported in Canton, China, since 1980. In March 2009, DENV-3 was isolated for the second time, occurring about 30 years after the previous circulation. In August, 3 other cases emerged. One much larger outbreak occurred again in 2010. To address the origin and particularly to determine whether the outbreaks were caused by the same viral genotype, we investigated the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of the introduction, spread and genetic microevolution of DENV-3 involved.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Three imported cases (index-1,2,3) separately traveled back from Vietnam, India and Tanzania, resulted in 1, 3 and 60 secondary autochthonous cases, respectively. In autochthonous cases, 64.6% positive in IgM anti-DENV and 18.6% in IgG from a total of 48 submitted serum samples, accompanied by 7 DENV-3 isolates. With 99.8%, 99.7%, and 100% envelope gene nucleotidic identity, 09/GZ/1081 from index-1 and endemic strain (09/GZ/1483) belonged to genotype V; 09/GZ/10616 from index-2 and endemic strains (09/GZ/11144 and 09/GZ/11194) belonged to genotype III Clade-A; and 10/GZ/4898 from index-3 and all four 2010 endemic DENV-3 strains belonged to genotype III Clade-B, respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

Both epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses showed that the 2010 outbreak of dengue was not a reemergence of the 2009 strain. Introductions of different genotypes following more than one route were important contributory factors for the 2009–2010 dengue epidemics/outbreaks in Canton. These findings underscore the importance of early detection and case management of imported case in preventing large-scale dengue epidemics among indigenous peoples of Canton.

Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of dengue viruses imported into Taiwan during 2008-2010

We present our surveillance results on imported dengue cases in Taiwan during 2008-2010. A total of 734 imported dengue patients were identified. The travelers were arriving from 18 countries, including Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, South Pacific islands, and Latin America. Gene sequences from 358 dengue virus (DENV) isolates were used to perform phylogenetic analyses, thus, providing an updated view of the geographic distribution and dynamic transmission of DENV strains circulating in these countries. Our results suggest that the DENV-1 genotype I and DENV-2 Cosmopolitan genotype comprise the predominant DENV strains circulating in Southeast Asian countries. The DENV-3 Genotype III strain was found to be newly emerging in several Southeast Asian countries, however, the Asian genotype 2 and the Asian/American genotype of DENV-2 strains appeared to be less prevalent in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, imported dengue viruses are representative of the overall patterns of serotype/genotype frequencies of dengue outbreaks that occurred in Taiwan.

Airport sentinel surveillance and entry quarantine for dengue infections following a fever screening program in Taiwan

Background

Dengue has not reached an endemic status in Taiwan; nevertheless, we have implemented a fever screening program at airports for the early detection of febrile passengers with a dengue infection. This study is intended to assess the performance of the airport screening procedures for dengue infection.

Methods

We analyzed data from the national surveillance system of the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. We included the imported dengue cases reported by sentinel airports and clinics as well as the domestic cases from 2007–2010.

Results

Approximately 44.9% (95%CI: 35.73-54.13%) of the confirmed imported dengue cases with an apparent symptom (febrile) in the viremic stage were detected via the airport fever screening program, with an estimated positive predictive value of 2.36% (95% CI: 0.96- 3.75%) and a negative predictive value > 99.99%. Fluctuations in the number of the symptomatic imported dengue cases identified in the airports (X) were associated with the total number of imported dengue cases (Y) based on a regression analysis of a biweekly surveillance (i.e., n = 104, R²_X:Y = 0.61, P < 0.005). Additionally, the fluctuating patterns in the cumulative numbers of the imported dengue cases (X) with a 1–2 month lead time (t) was in parallel with that of the domestic dengue cases (Y) based on a consecutive 4-year surveillance (i.e., n = 48, R²_X(t-1):Y = 0.22, R²_X(t-2):Y = 0.31, P < 0.001) from 2007–2010.

Conclusions

A moderate sensitivity of detecting dengue at the airports examined in this study indicated some limitations of the fever screening program for the prevention of importation. The screening program could assist in the rapid triage for self-quarantine of some symptomatic dengue cases that were in the viremic stage at the borders and contribute to active sentinel surveillance; however, the blocking of viral transmission to susceptible populations (neighbors or family) from all of the viremic travelers, including those with or without symptoms, is critical to prevent dengue epidemics. Therefore, the reinforcement of mosquito bite prevention and household vector control in dengue-endemic or dengue-competent hotspots during an epidemic season is essential and highly recommended.

Eventual role of asymptomatic cases of dengue for the introduction and spread of dengue viruses in non-endemic regions

In dengue virus infections the asymptomatic cases are much more frequent than the symptomatic ones, but their true role in the introduction and subsequent spread of dengue viruses in non-endemic regions remains to de clarified. We analyzed data from English and French literatures to assess if viremia in asymptomatic dengue infections might be sufficient to represent a true risk. During outbreaks of dengue a large number of individuals are infected and since viremia levels in symptomatic patients are known to vary by many orders of magnitude, it is reasonable to augur that a proportion of asymptomatic cases might reach levels of viremia sufficient to infect competent mosquitoes. In addition, a number of new ways of contamination in man by dengue viruses were recently described such as blood transfusion, bone marrow transplantation, and nosocomial infections that may be worth considering.

Air travel and vector-borne disease movement

Recent decades have seen substantial expansions in the global air travel network and rapid increases in traffic volumes. The effects of this are well studied in terms of the spread of directly transmitted infections, but the role of air travel in the movement of vector-borne diseases is less well understood. Increasingly however, wider reaching surveillance for vector-borne diseases and our improving abilities to map the distributions of vectors and the diseases they carry, are providing opportunities to better our understanding of the impact of increasing air travel. Here we examine global trends in the continued expansion of air transport and its impact upon epidemiology. Novel malaria and chikungunya examples are presented, detailing how geospatial data in combination with information on air traffic can be used to predict the risks of vector-borne disease importation and establishment. Finally, we describe the development of an online tool, the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) tool, which brings together spatial data on air traffic and vector-borne disease distributions to quantify the seasonally changing risks for importation to non-endemic regions. Such a framework provides the first steps towards an ultimate goal of adaptive management based on near real time flight data and vector-borne disease surveillance.

Dengue virus infection-enhancing activity in serum samples with neutralizing activity as determined by using FcγR-expressing cells

BACKGROUND

Progress in dengue vaccine development has been hampered by limited understanding of protective immunity against dengue virus infection. Conventional neutralizing antibody titration assays that use FcγR-negative cells do not consider possible infection-enhancement activity. We reasoned that as FcγR-expressing cells are the major target cells of dengue virus, neutralizing antibody titration assays using FcγR-expressing cells that determine the sum of neutralizing and infection-enhancing activity, may better reflect the biological properties of antibodies in vivo.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We evaluated serum samples from 80 residents of a dengue endemic country, Malaysia, for neutralizing activity, and infection-enhancing activity at 1∶10 serum dilution by using FcγR-negative BHK cells and FcγR-expressing BHK cells. The serum samples consisted of a panel of patients with acute DENV infection (31%, 25/80) and a panel of donors without acute DENV infection (69%, 55/80). A high proportion of the tested serum samples (75%, 60/80) demonstrated DENV neutralizing activity (PRNT(50)≥10) and infection-enhancing activity. Eleven of 18 serum samples from patients with acute secondary DENV infection demonstrated neutralizing activity to the infecting serotype determined by using FcγR-negative BHK cells (PRNT(50)≥10), but not when determined by using FcγR-expressing cells.

CONCLUSION

Human serum samples with low neutralizing activity determined by using FcγR-negative cells showed DENV infection-enhancing activity using FcγR-expressing cells, whereas those with high neutralizing activity determined by using FcγR-negative cells demonstrate low or no infection-enhancing activity using FcγR-expressing cells. The results suggest an inverse relationship between neutralizing antibody titer and infection-enhancing activity, and that neutralizing activity determined by using FcγR-expressing cells, and not the activity determined by using FcγR-negative cells, may better reflect protection to DENV infection in vivo.

[Asymptomatic infections in man: a Trojan horse for the introduction and spread of mosquito-borne arboviruses in non-endemic areas?]

In mosquito-borne arbovirus infections in man the asymptomatic cases are much more frequent than the symptomatic ones, but their true role in the introduction and subsequent spread of such diseases in non-endemic areas remains to be clarified. We have collected pertinent data from English and French literature from 1952 to 2010 through Pubmed and other bibliographic sources. Data were analysed to assess if viremia in asymptomatic human arbovirus infections might be sufficient to represent a true risk for introduction in non-endemic areas. During dengue and chikungunya fever outbreaks, humans are believed to be the only vertebrate hosts. Since a very large number of individuals are infected and since viremic levels are known to vary by many orders of magnitude in symptomatic patients, it is reasonable to augur that a proportion of asymptomatic cases might reach levels of viremia sufficient to infect competent mosquitoes. Moreover, in both dengue and chikungunya fever, nosocomial infections have been identified representing an alternative opportunity for virus introduction in non-endemic areas. In zoonotic mosquito-borne arbovirus infections such as Japanese encephalitis or West Nile infection, the situation is quite different since humans are considered as "dead-end" hosts. However, the very large number of asymptomatic cases arising during outbreaks and the existence of newly recognised ways of contamination (blood transfusion, organ transplantation, transplacental way etc.) may also ensure their introduction and subsequent spread in new areas.

Concurrent isolation of chikungunya virus and dengue virus from a patient with coinfection resulting from a trip to Singapore

We report two cases of imported infection in patients who had returned to Taiwan from Singapore: one was coinfected with chikungunya virus and dengue virus type 2, and the other was infected with the same dengue virus. Both viruses were successfully isolated from the coinfected case by using antibody neutralization and a plaque purification technique.

The role of imported cases and favorable meteorological conditions in the onset of dengue epidemics

Background

Travelers who acquire dengue infection are often routes for virus transmission to other regions. Nevertheless, the interplay between infected travelers, climate, vectors, and indigenous dengue incidence remains unclear. The role of foreign-origin cases on local dengue epidemics thus has been largely neglected by research. This study investigated the effect of both imported dengue and local meteorological factors on the occurrence of indigenous dengue in Taiwan.

Methods and Principal Findings

Using logistic and Poisson regression models, we analyzed bi-weekly, laboratory-confirmed dengue cases at their onset dates of illness from 1998 to 2007 to identify correlations between indigenous dengue and imported dengue cases (in the context of local meteorological factors) across different time lags. Our results revealed that the occurrence of indigenous dengue was significantly correlated with temporally-lagged cases of imported dengue (2–14 weeks), higher temperatures (6–14 weeks), and lower relative humidity (6–20 weeks). In addition, imported and indigenous dengue cases had a significant quantitative relationship in the onset of local epidemics. However, this relationship became less significant once indigenous epidemics progressed past the initial stage.

Conclusions

These findings imply that imported dengue cases are able to initiate indigenous epidemics when appropriate weather conditions are present. Early detection and case management of imported cases through rapid diagnosis may avert large-scale epidemics of dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever. The deployment of an early-warning surveillance system, with the capacity to integrate meteorological data, will be an invaluable tool for successful prevention and control of dengue, particularly in non-endemic countries.

Dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever is the world's most widely spread mosquito-borne arboviral disease and threatens more than two-thirds of the world's population. Cases are mainly distributed in tropical and subtropical areas in accordance with vector habitats for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. However, the role of imported cases and favorable meteorological conditions has not yet been quantitatively assessed. This study verified the correlation between the occurrence of indigenous dengue and imported cases in the context of weather variables (temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, etc.) for different time lags in southern Taiwan. Our findings imply that imported cases have a role in igniting indigenous outbreaks, in non-endemics areas, when favorable weather conditions are present. This relationship becomes insignificant in the late phase of local dengue epidemics. Therefore, early detection and case management of imported cases through timely surveillance and rapid laboratory-diagnosis may avert large scale epidemics of dengue/dengue hemorrhagic fever. An early-warning surveillance system integrating meteorological data will be an invaluable tool for successful prevention and control of dengue, particularly in non-endemic countries.

Reemergence of dengue in Mauritius

Dengue reemerged in Mauritius in 2009 after an absence of >30 years, and >200 cases were confirmed serologically. Molecular studies showed that the outbreak was caused by dengue virus type 2. Phylogenetic analysis of the envelope gene identified 2 clades of the virus. No case of hemorrhagic fever was recorded.

Epidemiological trends and the effect of airport fever screening on prevention of domestic dengue fever outbreaks in Taiwan, 1998-2007

Objective

This study aimed to examine the epidemiological trends in dengue infection and the impact of imported cases and airport fever screening on community transmission in Taiwan, a dengue non-endemic island.

Methods

All of the dengue case data were obtained from the surveillance system of the Taiwan Center for Disease Control and were analyzed by Pearson correlations, linear regression, and geographical information system (GIS)-based mapping. The impact of implementing airport fever screening was evaluated using the Student's t-test and two-way analysis of variance.

Results

A total of 10 351 dengue cases, including 7.1% of imported cases were investigated between 1998 and 2007. The majority of indigenous dengue cases (98.5%) were significantly clustered in southern Taiwan; 62.9% occurred in the metropolitan areas. The seasonality of dengue cases showed a peak from September to November. Airport fever screening was successful in identifying 45% (244/542 ; 95% confidence interval 33.1–57.8%) of imported dengue cases with fever. However, no statistical difference was found regarding the impact on community transmission when comparing the presence and absence of airport fever screening.

Conclusions

Our results show that airport fever screening had a positive effect on partially blocking the local transmission of imported dengue cases, while those undetected cases due to latent or asymptomatic infection would be the source of new dengue outbreaks each year.

Screening of dengue virus in field-caught Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) by one-step SYBR green-based reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay during 2004-2007 in Southern Taiwan

We carried out virological surveillance of dengue virus (DENV) in field-caught Aedes mosquitoes during 2004-2007 to estimate the monthly prevalence of infected females in dengue high-risk areas of Taiwan. A total of 92,892 Aedes aegypti (43,133 females and 49,759 males) and 79,315 Aedes albopictus (57,319 females and 21,996 males) adults were collected, grouped into 25,654 pools, and processed for virus detection using a one-step SYBR Green-based real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay. DENVs were periodically and sympatrically detected in Ae. aegypti females in accordance with major dengue outbreaks and the corresponding dengue serotypes. Only 0.2% of 7628 pools of Ae. aegypti females were positive for DENVs. This resulted in an overall estimated infection rate (maximum likelihood estimation) of 0.970 per 1000 mosquitoes (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.53-1.65). The total monthly infection rates ranged from 0.50 to 2.23 per 1000 mosquitoes (95% CI = 0.03-10.71). When sampling areas were scaled down to the city level, monthly infection rates increased to 0.73-12.59 (95% CI = 0.06-59.19). Monthly infection rates over all sampling areas and at the city level increased significantly by month. All positive pools were collected in July (one pool), August (two pools), September (one pool), October (three pools), November (four pools), and December (one pool). All four virus serotypes were detected in mosquitoes, which were consistent with dengue serotypes infecting humans in 2004 (DENV-4), 2005 and 2006 (DENV-2 and DENV-3), and 2007 (DENV-1). Our results provide supporting evidence that, in general, DENV infection rates were low in local Aedes mosquito population during 2004-2007 and that transovarial transmission may not be occurring or is occurring at much lower rates than evidenced in some endemic countries.

Screening of mosquitoes using SYBR Green I-based real-time RT-PCR with group-specific primers for detection of Flaviviruses and Alphaviruses in Taiwan

Surveillance for infectious agents carried by mosquitoes is important for predicting the risk of vector-borne infectious diseases. In this study, a method was established to mass-screen mosquitoes for viral infections. The assay detected the viral load of 4 dengue virus (DENV) serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4), the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), the Sindbis virus and the Chikungunya virus at 1PFU/mL (determined by real-time RT-PCR) in 36.64-43.45 cycles. This method was applied to 75,364 field-captured mosquitoes that were grouped into 10,343 pools. Japanese encephalitis viruses were detected in 25 pools of 906 Culex tritaeniorhynchus females and a single pool of 44 Cx. fuscocephala females. These viruses were isolated from half of the positive pools. Dengue viruses were detected in 2 pools of 43 Aedes aegypti females. Additionally, mosquitoes that were infected orally with dengue viruses in the laboratory were also used to verify the test. The best detection times for individual mosquitoes after being fed virally-contaminated blood were at day 0 and day 10. The number of mosquitoes detected per pool was up to one infected mosquito plus 59 non-infected mosquitoes; the appropriate storage substances for holding samples within 24h included ice cubes and dry ice. This method, combined with a robust and automated RNA-extraction method and a 96 well real-time RT-PCR machine, allows the processing of a large number of samples at once, making it a powerful tool for monitoring simultaneously local and emerging vector-borne infectious diseases of Flaviviruses and Alphaviruses. This study is the first to quantify the viral load in individual mosquitoes over the course of a 16-day extrinsic incubation period.