Toward Cholera Elimination, Haiti

Informing policy via dynamic models: Cholera in Haiti

Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission dynamics. Such decisions can be posed as statistical questions about scientifically motivated dynamic models. Thus, we encounter the methodological task of building credible, data-informed decisions based on stochastic, partially observed, nonlinear dynamic models. This necessitates addressing the tradeoff between biological fidelity and model simplicity, and the reality of misspecification for models at all levels of complexity. We assess current methodological approaches to these issues via a case study of the 2010-2019 cholera epidemic in Haiti. We consider three dynamic models developed by expert teams to advise on vaccination policies. We evaluate previous methods used for fitting these models, and we demonstrate modified data analysis strategies leading to improved statistical fit. Specifically, we present approaches for diagnosing model misspecification and the consequent development of improved models. Additionally, we demonstrate the utility of recent advances in likelihood maximization for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamic models, enabling likelihood-based inference for spatiotemporal incidence data using this class of models. Our workflow is reproducible and extendable, facilitating future investigations of this disease system.

MA, Tovar-Rosero YY, Oñate AA, O'Ryan M. Two centuries of vaccination: historical and conceptual approach and future perspectives

Over the past two centuries, vaccines have been critical for the prevention of infectious diseases and are considered milestones in the medical and public health history. The World Health Organization estimates that vaccination currently prevents approximately 3.5-5 million deaths annually, attributed to diseases such as diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, influenza, and measles. Vaccination has been instrumental in eradicating important pathogens, including the smallpox virus and wild poliovirus types 2 and 3. This narrative review offers a detailed journey through the history and advancements in vaccinology, tailored for healthcare workers. It traces pivotal milestones, beginning with the variolation practices in the early 17th century, the development of the first smallpox vaccine, and the continuous evolution and innovation in vaccine development up to the present day. We also briefly review immunological principles underlying vaccination, as well as the main vaccine types, with a special mention of the recently introduced mRNA vaccine technology. Additionally, we discuss the broad benefits of vaccines, including their role in reducing morbidity and mortality, and in fostering socioeconomic development in communities. Finally, we address the issue of vaccine hesitancy and discuss effective strategies to promote vaccine acceptance. Research, collaboration, and the widespread acceptance and use of vaccines are imperative for the continued success of vaccination programs in controlling and ultimately eradicating infectious diseases.

Seroprevalence of Vibrio cholerae in Adults, Haiti, 2017

In Haiti in 2017, the prevalence of serum vibriocidal antibody titers against Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1 among adults was 12.4% in Cerca-la-Source and 9.54% in Mirebalais, suggesting a high recent prevalence of infection. Improved surveillance programs to monitor cholera and guide public health interventions in Haiti are necessary.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera in the Democratic Republic of the Congo before and during the implementation of the Multisectoral Cholera Elimination Plan: a cross-sectional study from 2000 to 2021

BACKGROUND

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) implemented the first strategic Multisectoral Cholera Elimination Plan (MCEP) in 2008-2012. Two subsequent MCEPs have since been implemented covering the periods 2013-2017 and 2018-2021. The current study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera over the recent 22-year period to determine the impact of the MCEPs on cholera epidemics, establish lessons learned and provide an evidence-based foundation to improve the implementation of the next MCEP (2023-2027).

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, secondary weekly epidemiological cholera data covering the 2000-2021 period was extracted from the DRC Ministry of Health surveillance databases. The data series was divided into four periods: pre-MCEP 2003-2007 (pre-MCEP), first MCEP (MCEP-1), second MCEP (MCEP-2) and third MCEP (MCEP-3). For each period, we assessed the overall cholera profiles and seasonal patterns. We analyzed the spatial dynamics and identified cholera risk clusters at the province level. We also assessed the evolution of cholera sanctuary zones identified during each period.

RESULTS

During the 2000-2021 period, the DRC recorded 520,024 suspected cases and 12,561 deaths. The endemic provinces remain the most affected with more than 75% of cases, five of the six endemic provinces were identified as risk clusters during each MCEP period (North Kivu, South Kivu, Tanganyika, Haut-Lomami and Haut-Katanga). Several health zones were identified as cholera sanctuary zones during the study period: 14 health zones during MCEP-1, 14 health zones during MCEP-2 and 29 health zones during MCEP-3. Over the course of the study period, seasonal cholera patterns remained constant, with one peak during the dry season and one peak during the rainy season.

CONCLUSION

Despite the implementation of three MCEPs, the cholera context in the DRC remains largely unchanged since the pre-MCEP period. To better orient cholera elimination activities, the method used to classify priority health zones should be optimized by analyzing epidemiological; water, sanitation and hygiene; socio-economic; environmental and health indicators at the local level. Improvements should also be made regarding the implementation of the MCEP, reporting of funded activities and surveillance of cholera cases. Additional studies should aim to identify specific bottlenecks and gaps in the coordination and strategic efforts of cholera elimination interventions at the local, national and international levels.

Poor Sensitivity of Stool Culture Compared to Polymerase Chain Reaction in Surveillance for Vibrio cholerae in Haiti, 2018-2019

We report on the sensitivity and specificity of stool culture compared to polymerase chain reaction for detecting Vibrio cholerae in Haiti during the waning period of the initial outbreak in 2018-2019. We found that stool culture (with a sensitivity of 33.3% and specificity of 97.4%) may not be sufficiently robust in this context.

Prevalence of diarrheagenic Escherichia coli and impact on child health in Cap-Haitien, Haiti

BACKGROUND

Diarrheagenic Escherichia coli (DEC) are common pathogens infecting children during their growth and development. Determining the epidemiology and the impact of DEC on child anthropometric measures informs prioritization of prevention efforts. These relationships were evaluated in a novel setting, Cap-Haitien, Haiti.

METHODS

We performed pre-specified secondary analysis of a case-control study of community-dwelling children, 6-36 months of age, enrolled 96 cases with diarrhea and 99 asymptomatic controls. Assessments were performed at enrollment and one month later at follow-up. Established endpoint PCR methodologies targeted DEC gDNA isolated from fecal swabs. The association between DEC and anthropometric z-scores at enrollment was determined using multivariate linear regression. Lastly, we assessed the association between specific biomarkers, choline and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and diarrheal burden.

RESULTS

Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) was identified in 21.9% of cases vs. 16.1% of controls with heat-stable producing ETEC significantly associated with symptomatic disease. Enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC) was found in 30.2% of cases vs. 27.3% of controls, and typical enteropathogenic E. coli in 6.3% vs. 4.0% of cases and controls, respectively. Multivariate linear regression, controlled for case or control status, demonstrated ETEC and EAEC were significantly associated with reduced weight-age z-score (WAZ) and height-age z-score (HAZ) after adjusting for confounders. An interaction between ETEC and EAEC was observed. Choline and DHA were not associated with diarrheal burden.

CONCLUSIONS

DEC are prevalent in north Haitian children. ETEC, EAEC, household environment, and diet are associated with unfavorable anthropometric measures, with possible synergistic interactions between ETEC and EAEC. Further studies with longer follow up may quantify the contribution of individual pathogens to adverse health outcomes.

Development of a Scorecard to Monitor Progress toward National Cholera Elimination: Its Application in Uganda

In 2017, the Global Task Force for Cholera Control (GTFCC) set a goal to eliminate cholera from ≥ 20 countries and to reduce cholera deaths by 90% by 2030. Many countries have included oral cholera vaccine (OCV) in their cholera control plans. We felt that a simple, user-friendly monitoring tool would be useful to guide national progress toward cholera elimination. We reviewed cholera surveillance data of Uganda from 2015 to 2021 by date and district. We defined a district as having eliminated cholera if cholera was not reported in that district for at least 4 years. We prepared maps to show districts with cholera, districts that had eliminated it, and districts that had eliminated it but then "relapsed." These maps were compared with districts where OCV was used and the hotspot map recommended by the GTFCC. Between 2018 and 2021, OCV was administered in 16 districts previously identified as hotspots. In 2018, cholera was reported during at least one of the four previous years from 36 of the 146 districts of Uganda. This number decreased to 18 districts by 2021. Cholera was deemed "eliminated" from four of these 18 districts but then "relapsed." The cholera elimination scorecard effectively demonstrated national progress toward cholera elimination and identified districts where additional resources are needed to achieve elimination by 2030. Identification of the districts that have eliminated cholera and those that have relapsed will assist the national programs to focus on addressing the factors that result in elimination or relapse of cholera.

A population-based serological survey of Vibrio cholerae antibody titers in Ouest Department, Haiti in the year prior to the 2022 cholera outbreak

After three years with no confirmed cholera cases in Haiti, an outbreak of Vibrio cholerae O1 emerged in October 2022. Levels of pre-existing antibodies provide an estimate of prior immunologic exposure, reveal potentially relevant immune responses, and set a baseline for future serosurveillance. We analyzed dried blood spots collected in 2021 from a population-weighted representative cross-sectional serosurvey in two communes in the Ouest Department of Haiti. We found lower levels of circulating IgG and IgA antibodies against V. cholerae lipopolysaccharide (LPS, IgG and IgA p<0.0001) in those below 5 years of age compared to those five years and older. Among a subset of patients with higher titers of antibodies, we were unable to detect any functional (vibriocidal) antibodies. In conclusion, the lack of detectable functional antibodies, and age-discordant levels of V. cholerae LPS IgG, suggest that populations in Haiti may be highly susceptible to cholera disease, especially among young children.

Socio-economic and demographic factors influencing open defecation in Haiti: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Open defecation (OD) remains an important public health challenge in Haiti. The practice poses a significantly high risk of disease transmission. Considering these negative health consequences, this paper aims to identify socio-economic and demographic factors that influence OD practice among households in Haiti.

METHODS

The study used secondary data from 13,405 households from the Haiti Demographic and Health Survey 2016-2017. Descriptive statistics and bivariate analysis were used to find the preliminary results. Further, multivariate analysis was performed to confirm the findings.

RESULTS

Around one quarter (25.3%) of Haitian households still defecate in the open, almost 10% in urban areas, and nearly 36% in rural areas. Multivariate analysis revealed that the age and sex of the household head, household size, number of children aged 1-14 years old in the household, education level, wealth index, access to mass media, place of residence, and region were significant predictors of OD practice among households in Haiti.

CONCLUSION

To accelerate the elimination of OD by 2030 and therefore achieve sustainable open defecation-free status, the government of Haiti and its partners should consider wealth disparities among regions and mobilize mass media and community-based networks to raise awareness and promote education about sane sanitation practices. Furthermore, because the possibilities to build toilets differ between rural and urban areas, specific interventions must be spearheaded for each of these regions. The public program can subsidize individual toilets in rural areas with room to collect dry excreta for the preparation of fertilizers, while in urban areas collective toilets can be built in slums. Interventions should also prioritize households headed by women and young people, two underpriviledged socioeconomic groups in Haiti.

Cholera

Cholera was first described in the areas around the Bay of Bengal and spread globally, resulting in seven pandemics during the past two centuries. It is caused by toxigenic Vibrio cholerae O1 or O139 bacteria. Cholera is characterised by mild to potentially fatal acute watery diarrhoeal disease. Prompt rehydration therapy is the cornerstone of management. We present an overview of cholera and its pathogenesis, natural history, bacteriology, and epidemiology, while highlighting advances over the past 10 years in molecular epidemiology, immunology, and vaccine development and deployment. Since 2014, the Global Task Force on Cholera Control, a WHO coordinated network of partners, has been working with several countries to develop national cholera control strategies. The global roadmap for cholera control focuses on stopping transmission in cholera hotspots through vaccination and improved water, sanitation, and hygiene, with the aim to reduce cholera deaths by 90% and eliminate local transmission in at least 20 countries by 2030.

Epidemicity of cholera spread and the fate of infection control measures

The fate of ongoing infectious disease outbreaks is predicted through reproduction numbers, defining the long-term establishment of the infection, and epidemicity indices, tackling the reactivity of the infectious pool to new contagions. Prognostic metrics of unfolding outbreaks are of particular importance when designing adaptive emergency interventions facing real-time assimilation of epidemiological evidence. Our aim here is twofold. First, we propose a novel form of the epidemicity index for the characterization of cholera epidemics in spatial models of disease spread. Second, we examine in hindsight the survey of infections, treatments and containment measures carried out for the now extinct 2010–2019 Haiti cholera outbreak, to suggest that magnitude and timing of non-pharmaceutical and vaccination interventions imply epidemiological responses recapped by the evolution of epidemicity indices. Achieving negative epidemicity greatly accelerates fading of infections and thus proves a worthwhile target of containment measures. We also show that, in our model, effective reproduction numbers and epidemicity indices are explicitly related. Therefore, providing an upper bound to the effective reproduction number (significantly lower than the unit threshold) warrants negative epidemicity and, in turn, a rapidly fading outbreak preventing coalescence of sparse local sub-threshold flare-ups.