Differentiated Responses of Apple Tree Floral Phenology to Global Warming in Contrasting Climatic Regions

Climate change impacts on temperate fruit and nut production: a systematic review

Temperate fruit and nut crops require distinctive cold and warm seasons to meet their physiological requirements and progress through their phenological stages. Consequently, they have been traditionally cultivated in warm temperate climate regions characterized by dry-summer and wet-winter seasons. However, fruit and nut production in these areas faces new challenging conditions due to increasingly severe and erratic weather patterns caused by climate change. This review represents an effort towards identifying the current state of knowledge, key challenges, and gaps that emerge from studies of climate change effects on fruit and nut crops produced in warm temperate climates. Following the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we analyzed 403 articles published between 2000 and 2023 that met the defined eligibility criteria. A 44-fold increase in the number of publications during the last two decades reflects a growing interest in research related to both a better understanding of the effects of climate anomalies on temperate fruit and nut production and the need to find strategies that allow this industry to adapt to current and future weather conditions while reducing its environmental impacts. In an extended analysis beyond the scope of the systematic review methodology, we classified the literature into six main areas of research, including responses to environmental conditions, water management, sustainable agriculture, breeding and genetics, prediction models, and production systems. Given the rapid expansion of climate change-related literature, our analysis provides valuable information for researchers, as it can help them identify aspects that are well understood, topics that remain unexplored, and urgent questions that need to be addressed in the future.

Transport capacity is uncoupled with endodormancy breaking in sweet cherry buds: physiological and molecular insights

Introduction

To avoid the negative impacts of winter unfavorable conditions for plant development, temperate trees enter a rest period called dormancy. Winter dormancy is a complex process that involves multiple signaling pathways and previous studies have suggested that transport capacity between cells and between the buds and the twig may regulate the progression throughout dormancy stages. However, the dynamics and molecular actors involved in this regulation are still poorly described in fruit trees.

Methods

Here, in order to validate the hypothesis that transport capacity regulates dormancy progression in fruit trees, we combined physiological, imaging and transcriptomic approaches to characterize molecular pathways and transport capacity during dormancy in sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) flower buds.

Results

Our results show that transport capacity is reduced during dormancy and could be regulated by environmental signals. Moreover, we demonstrate that dormancy release is not synchronized with the transport capacity resumption but occurs when the bud is capable of growth under the influence of warmer temperatures. We highlight key genes involved in transport capacity during dormancy.

Discussion

Based on long-term observations conducted during six winter seasons, we propose hypotheses on the environmental and molecular regulation of transport capacity, in relation to dormancy and growth resumption in sweet cherry.

Influence of Climate Change on Metabolism and Biological Characteristics in Perennial Woody Fruit Crops in the Mediterranean Environment

The changes in the state of the climate have a high impact on perennial fruit crops thus threatening food availability. Indeed, climatic factors affect several plant aspects, such as phenological stages, physiological processes, disease-pest frequency, yield, and qualitative composition of the plant tissues and derived products. To mitigate the effects of climatic parameters variability, plants implement several strategies of defense, by changing phenological trends, altering physiology, increasing carbon sequestration, and metabolites synthesis. This review was divided into two sections. The first provides data on climate change in the last years and a general consideration on their impact, mitigation, and resilience in the production of food crops. The second section reviews the consequences of climate change on the industry of two woody fruit crops models (evergreen and deciduous trees). The research focused on, citrus, olive, and loquat as evergreen trees examples; while grape, apple, pear, cherry, apricot, almond, peach, kiwi, fig, and persimmon as deciduous species. Perennial fruit crops originated by a complex of decisions valuable in a long period and involving economic and technical problems that farmers may quickly change in the case of annual crops. However, the low flexibility of woody crops is balanced by resilience in the long-life cycle.

Comparative Transcriptomic Analysis Provides Insight into the Key Regulatory Pathways and Differentially Expressed Genes in Blueberry Flower Bud Endo- and Ecodormancy Release

Endodormancy is the stage that perennial plants must go through to prepare for the next seasonal cycle, and it is also an adaptation that allows plants to survive harsh winters. Blueberries (Vaccinium spp.) are known to have high nutritional and commercial value. To better understand the molecular mechanisms of bud dormancy release, the transcriptomes of flower buds from the southern highbush blueberry variety “O’Neal” were analyzed at seven time points of the endo- and ecodormancy release processes. Pairwise comparisons were conducted between adjacent time points; five kinds of phytohormone were identified via these processes. A total of 12,350 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were obtained from six comparisons. Gene Ontology analysis indicated that these DEGs were significantly involved in metabolic processes and catalytic activity. KEGG pathway analysis showed that these DEGs were predominantly mapped to metabolic pathways and the biosynthesis of secondary metabolites in endodormancy release, but these DEGs were significantly enriched in RNA transport, plant hormone signal transduction, and circadian rhythm pathways in the process of ecodormancy release. The contents of abscisic acid (ABA), salicylic acid (SA), and 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylate (ACC) decreased in endo- and ecodormancy release, and the jasmonic acid (JA) level first decreased in endodormancy release and then increased in ecodormancy release. Weighted correlation network analysis (WGCNA) of transcriptomic data associated with hormone contents generated 25 modules, 9 of which were significantly related to the change in hormone content. The results of this study have important reference value for elucidating the molecular mechanism of flower bud dormancy release.

MYB transcription factor family in sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.): genome-wide investigation, evolution, structure, characterization and expression patterns

BACK GROUND

MYB Transcription factors (TFs) are most imperative and largest gene family in plants, which participate in development, metabolism, defense, differentiation and stress response. The MYB TFs has been studied in various plant species. However, comprehensive studies of MYB gene family in the sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) are still unknown.

RESULTS

In the current study, a total of 69 MYB genes were investigated from sweet cherry genome and classified into 28 subfamilies (C1-C28 based on phylogenetic and structural analysis). Microcollinearity analysis revealed that dispersed duplication (DSD) events might play an important role in the MYB genes family expansion. Chromosomal localization, the synonymous (Ks) and nonsynonymous (Ka) analysis, molecular characteristics (pI, weight and length of amino acids) and subcellular localization were accomplished using several bioinformatics tools. Furthermore, the members of distinct subfamilies have diverse cis-acting regions, conserved motifs, and intron-exon architectures, indicating functional heterogeneity in the MYB family. Moreover, the transcriptomic data exposed that MYB genes might play vital role in bud dormancy. The quantitative real-time qRT-PCR was carried out and the expression pattern indicated that MYB genes significantly expressed in floral bud as compared to flower and fruit.

CONCLUSION

Our comprehensive findings provide supportive insights into the evolutions, expansion complexity and functionality of PavMYB genes. These PavMYB genes should be further investigated as they seem to be brilliant candidates for dormancy manipulation in sweet cherry.

The Identification of Small RNAs Differentially Expressed in Apple Buds Reveals a Potential Role of the Mir159-MYB Regulatory Module during Dormancy

Winter dormancy is an adaptative mechanism that temperate and boreal trees have developed to protect their meristems against low temperatures. In apple trees (Malus domestica), cold temperatures induce bud dormancy at the end of summer/beginning of the fall. Apple buds stay dormant during winter until they are exposed to a period of cold, after which they can resume growth (budbreak) and initiate flowering in response to warmer temperatures in spring. It is well-known that small RNAs modulate temperature responses in many plant species, but however, how small RNAs are involved in genetic networks of temperature-mediated dormancy control in fruit tree species remains unclear. Here, we have made use of a recently developed ARGONAUTE (AGO)-purification technique to isolate small RNAs from apple buds. A small RNA-seq experiment resulted in the identification of 17 micro RNAs (miRNAs) that change their pattern of expression in apple buds during dormancy. Furthermore, the functional analysis of their predicted target genes suggests a main role of the 17 miRNAs in phenylpropanoid biosynthesis, gene regulation, plant development and growth, and response to stimulus. Finally, we studied the conservation of the Arabidopsis thaliana regulatory miR159-MYB module in apple in the context of the plant hormone abscisic acid homeostasis.

Full flowering phenology of apple tree (<i>Malus domestica</i>) in Pūre orchard, Latvia from 1959 to 2019

Abstract. The Pūre orchard is one of the oldest apple orchards in the Baltic, where thousands of varieties of fruit trees from throughout the world are grown and tested. Over time, a huge knowledge base has been accumulated, but most of the observational data are stored in archives in paper format. We have digitized a small part of the full flowering phenological data of apple trees (Malus domestica) over the period of 1959 to 2019 for 17 varieties of apple trees, a significant step for horticulture and agricultural economics in Latvia. Climate change has led to significant changes in the phenology of apple trees as all varieties, autumn, summer and winter, have begun to flower earlier: from 2002 to 2019, on average full flowering was recorded to have taken place around 21 May, whereas for the period 1959–1967 it occurred around 27–28 May. To develop better-quality phenological predictions and to take account of the fragmentary nature of phenological data, in our study we assessed the performance of three meteorological data sets – gridded observation data from E-OBS, ERA5-Land reanalysis data and direct observations from a distant meteorological station – in simple phenological degree-day models. In the first approximation, the gridded E-OBS data set performs best in our phenological model.

Chilling and Heat Accumulation of Fruit and Nut Trees and Flower Bud Vulnerability to Early Spring Low Temperatures in New Mexico: Meteorological Approach

Fruit and nut trees production is an important activity across the southwest United States and this production is greatly impacted by the local climate. Temperature is the main environmental factor influencing the growth and the productivity of the fruit and nut trees as it affects the trees’ physiology and the vulnerability of flower bud, flowers, and young fruit and nut to the low temperatures or spring frost. The objective of the present study is to estimate the chilling and heat accumulation of fruit and nut trees across New Mexico. Three study sites as Fabian Garcia, Los Lunas, and Farmington were considered and climate variables were collected at hourly time step. The Utah model and the Dynamic model were used to estimate the accumulated chilling while the Forcing model was used for the heat accumulation. The possible fruit and nut trees endodormancy and ecodormancy periods were also determined at the study sites. The results obtained chilling hours of 715 ± 86.60 h at Fabian Garcia, 729.53 ± 41.71 h at Los Lunas, and 828.95 ± 83.73 h at Farmington using the Utah model. The accumulated chill portions during trees’ endodormancy was 3.12 ± 3.05 CP at Fabian Garcia, 42.23 ± 5.08 CP at Los Lunas, and 56.14 ± 1.84 CP at Farmington. The accumulated heat was 8735.52 ± 1650.91 GDH at Fabian Garcia, 7695.43 ± 212.90 GDH at Los Lunas, and 5984.69 ± 2353.20 GDH at Farmington. The fruit and nut trees are at no risk of bud flowers vulnerability at Fabian Garcia while they are under high risk of bud flowers and or young fruit and nut vulnerability to low temperatures early spring as hourly temperature can still drop below 0 °C in April at the end of ecodormancy and flower blooming and young fruits and nuts development stage at Los Lunas and Farmington. Severe weather, especially frost conditions during winter and early spring, can be a significant threat to sustainable nut and fruit production in the northern New Mexico while high chilling requirement fruit and nut trees might not meet chill requirements in the southern New Mexico.

Apple phenology occurs earlier across South Korea with higher temperatures and increased precipitation

This study examined relationships between temperature, precipitation, geo-topography, and the spring phenology of Fuji and Hongro apple cultivars along spatial gradients across South Korea. Phenology data was gathered from 2011 to 2014 in 42 uniformly managed research orchards which span a range in climate, latitude, and elevation. We used linear models and spatially explicit forecasts to study apple phenology under climate change scenarios. Given dry winters and complex terrain in South Korea, we hypothesized that, in addition to temperature, precipitation and geo-topographic factors influence apple phenology. We also expected responses to climate variation to be similar between (spatial) and within (temporal) orchards, given the controlled conditions and the use of apple clones in this study. With other factors held constant, phenological sensitivity ranged from - 3.2 to - 3.4 days °C^-1 for air temperature and - 0.5 to - 0.6 days cm^-1 for March precipitation in a combined model. When modeled without temperature, phenology changed by up to 10 days over the full range in March precipitation. Spring temperatures and precipitation in March had very little cross-correlation (r < 0.05), suggesting these patterns are independent; however, in a combined model including temperature, predicted changes in precipitation over the next 80 years have only a small impact on future apple phenology. Combining the best models with climate forecasts for South Korea, spring phenology continues to occur earlier over the next 80 years, mostly due to warming temperatures but with strong variation between regions. This suggests regionally specific climate change adaptation strategies are needed for future apple production in South Korea.

Testing of laboratory samples of microbiological preparations based on promising producer strains for the control of apple scab

To prevent phytosanitary destabilization in apple agrocenoses, it is necessary to include ecologically safe microbiological preparations in the protection systems. In the Krasnodar region in 2016 and 2019 in the field, laboratory samples of microbiological preparations were tested in the formulation “wettable powder” from the collection of the laboratory of the biological method of the FGBNU VNIIMK against Venturia inaequalis (Cooke) G. Winter. Of the 9 laboratory samples tested in 2016, the highest efficiency, approaching the effectiveness of a chemical fungicide, was shown by samples based on fungal producer strains: RK-1, XK-1 and T-2 - 76.9-92.5%. In 2019, all variants (in the amount of 4) using laboratory samples of microbiological preparations were more effective in comparison with the active substance of chemical origin. The best scab control was provided by a laboratory sample of a three-component mixed preparation based on two fungal and one bacterial producer strain RK-1 + XK-1 + B-12 - 83.0-84.9%. The isolated samples are promising for research on the creation of microbiological preparations against apple scab.

Potential vulnerability of Moroccan apple orchard to climate change-induced phenological perturbations: effects on yields and fruit quality

Climatic factors are of a big importance for the determination of phenological stages of several fruit tree species, including apple, during the pre- and post-blooming periods causing their modifications and consequently affecting the fruit quality and productivity. This study aimed to identify the important dormancy phases (chilling and forcing periods) involved in determination of the flowering time in Gala apple trees in order to estimate temperature and chill/heat requirements, useful to assess the effect of climatic factors and phenological modifications on apple productivity and quality. Phenological and climatic data (temperatures, rainfall, irrigation, chilling and heat requirements) were collected, calculated, and measured from orchard in Imouzzer-Kandar, Morocco. Fruit productivity and quality parameters (total yield, fruit weight, size, firmness, and sweetness) were measured. Results showed a prolonged chilling period basing on the pre-blooming phases identified using partial least squares regression. Inadequate chill during warm seasons (insufficient chilling requirements) induces some phenological perturbations: late flowering, extended flowering duration, and period from flowering to harvesting. These phenological anomalies affect negatively the fruit quality of apple as a cause of inadequate climatic factors, mainly temperature and chilling requirements during the chilling period. Our findings demonstrated that sufficient chilling and heat requirements correlate positively with fruit weight, size, and firmness, although the low irrigation applied during the period from flowering to the harvesting times. In unfavorable conditions, total yield and fruit sweetness could be improved by supplementary irrigation during the same period. Practically, chilling requirements of 645-677 chill hours, 709-1157 chill units, and 43.4-55.2 chill portions according to 0-7 °C, Utah model, and Dynamic model respectively and heat requirements of 26,290-27,057 growing degree hours are sufficient for good fruit quality. These are equivalent to temperature of 9.3-9.9 °C during the chilling period and 11.1-12.5 °C during the forcing period. These findings are useful for eventual management measures in order to improve apple production in their cropping area. At long terms, we propose necessity of rearrangement of high-chill apple varieties by low-chill cultivars as a way of apple crop adaptation to climate variations.

Structure and Expression of Bud Dormancy-Associated MADS-Box Genes (DAM) in European Plum

Bud dormancy in temperate perennials ensures the survival of growing meristems under the harsh environmental conditions of autumn and winter, and facilitates an optimal growth and development resumption in the spring. Although the molecular pathways controlling the dormancy process are still unclear, DORMANCY-ASSOCIATED MADS-BOX genes (DAM) have emerged as key regulators of the dormancy cycle in different species. In the present study, we have characterized the orthologs of DAM genes in European plum (Prunus domestica L.). Their expression patterns together with sequence similarities are consistent with a role of PdoDAMs in dormancy maintenance mechanisms in European plum. Furthermore, other genes related to dormancy, flowering, and stress response have been identified in order to obtain a molecular framework of these three different processes taking place within the dormant flower bud in this species. This research provides a set of candidate genes to be genetically modified in future research, in order to better understand dormancy regulation in perennial species.

From bud formation to flowering: transcriptomic state defines the cherry developmental phases of sweet cherry bud dormancy

Background

Bud dormancy is a crucial stage in perennial trees and allows survival over winter to ensure optimal flowering and fruit production. Recent work highlighted physiological and molecular events occurring during bud dormancy in trees. However, they usually examined bud development or bud dormancy in isolation. In this work, we aimed to further explore the global transcriptional changes happening throughout bud development and dormancy onset, progression and release.

Results

Using next-generation sequencing and modelling, we conducted an in-depth transcriptomic analysis for all stages of flower buds in several sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) cultivars that are characterized for their contrasted dates of dormancy release. We find that buds in organogenesis, paradormancy, endodormancy and ecodormancy stages are defined by the expression of genes involved in specific pathways, and these are conserved between different sweet cherry cultivars. In particular, we found that DORMANCY ASSOCIATED MADS-box (DAM), floral identity and organogenesis genes are up-regulated during the pre-dormancy stages while endodormancy is characterized by a complex array of signalling pathways, including cold response genes, ABA and oxidation-reduction processes. After dormancy release, genes associated with global cell activity, division and differentiation are activated during ecodormancy and growth resumption. We then went a step beyond the global transcriptomic analysis and we developed a model based on the transcriptional profiles of just seven genes to accurately predict the main bud dormancy stages.

Conclusions

Overall, this study has allowed us to better understand the transcriptional changes occurring throughout the different phases of flower bud development, from bud formation in the summer to flowering in the following spring. Our work sets the stage for the development of fast and cost effective diagnostic tools to molecularly define the dormancy stages. Such integrative approaches will therefore be extremely useful for a better comprehension of complex phenological processes in many species.

Different ways to die in a changing world: Consequences of climate change for tree species performance and survival through an ecophysiological perspective

Anthropogenic activities such as uncontrolled deforestation and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for triggering a series of environmental imbalances that affect the Earth's complex climate dynamics. As a consequence of these changes, several climate models forecast an intensification of extreme weather events over the upcoming decades, including heat waves and increasingly severe drought and flood episodes. The occurrence of such extreme weather will prompt profound changes in several plant communities, resulting in massive forest dieback events that can trigger a massive loss of biodiversity in several biomes worldwide. Despite the gravity of the situation, our knowledge regarding how extreme weather events can undermine the performance, survival, and distribution of forest species remains very fragmented. Therefore, the present review aimed to provide a broad and integrated perspective of the main biochemical, physiological, and morpho-anatomical disorders that may compromise the performance and survival of forest species exposed to climate change factors, particularly drought, flooding, and global warming. In addition, we also discuss the controversial effects of high CO2 concentrations in enhancing plant growth and reducing the deleterious effects of some extreme climatic events. We conclude with a discussion about the possible effects that the factors associated with the climate change might have on species distribution and forest composition.

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)

The world’s five Mediterranean-climate regions (MCRs) share unique climatic regimes of mild, wet winters and warm and dry summers. Agriculture in these regions is threatened by increases in the occurrence of drought and high temperature events associated with climate change (CC). In this review we analyze what would be the effects of CC on crops (including orchards and vineyards), how crops and cropping and farming systems could adapt to CC, and what are the social and economic impacts, as well as the strategies used by producers to adapt to CC. In rainfed areas, water deficit occurs mostly during the flowering and grain filling stages (terminal drought stress), which has large detrimental effects on the productivity of crops. Orchards and vineyards, which are mostly cultivated in irrigated areas, will also be vulnerable to water deficit due to a reduction in water available for irrigation and an increase in evapotranspiration. Adaptation of agriculture to CC in MCRs requires integrated strategies that encompass different levels of organization: the crop (including orchards and vineyards), the cropping system (sequence of crops and management techniques used on a particular agricultural field) and the farming system, which includes the farmer.

Spring frost risk for regional apple production under a warmer climate

Spring frosts, as experienced in Europe in April 2016 and 2017, pose a considerable risk to agricultural production, with the potential to cause significant damages to agricultural yields. Meteorological blocking events (stable high-pressure systems) have been shown to be one of the factors that trigger cold spells in spring. While current knowledge does not allow for drawing conclusions as to any change in future frequency and duration of blocking episodes due to climate change, the combination of their stable occurrence with the biological system under a warming trend can lead to economic damage increases. To evaluate future frost risk for apple producers in south-eastern Styria, we combine a phenological sequential model with highly resolved climate projections for Austria. Our model projects a mean advance of blooming of -1.6 ± 0.9 days per decade, shifting the bloom onset towards early April by the end of the 21st century. Our findings indicate that overall frost risk for apple cultures will remain in a warmer climate and potentially even increase due to a stronger connection between blocking and cold spells in early spring that can be identified from observational data. To prospectively deal with frost risk, measures are needed that either stabilize crop yields or ensure farmers' income by other means. We identify appropriate adaptation measures and relate their costs to the potential frost risk increase. Even if applied successfully, the costs of these measures in combination with future residual damages represent additional climate change related costs.

I Want to (Bud) Break Free: The Potential Role of DAM and SVP-Like Genes in Regulating Dormancy Cycle in Temperate Fruit Trees

Bud dormancy is an adaptive process that allows trees to survive the hard environmental conditions that they experience during the winter of temperate climates. Dormancy is characterized by the reduction in meristematic activity and the absence of visible growth. A prolonged exposure to cold temperatures is required to allow the bud resuming growth in response to warm temperatures. In fruit tree species, the dormancy cycle is believed to be regulated by a group of genes encoding MADS-box transcription factors. These genes are called DORMANCY-ASSOCIATED MADS-BOX (DAM) and are phylogenetically related to the Arabidopsis thaliana floral regulators SHORT VEGETATIVE PHASE (SVP) and AGAMOUS-LIKE 24. The interest in DAM and other orthologs of SVP (SVP-like) genes has notably increased due to the publication of several reports suggesting their role in the control of bud dormancy in numerous fruit species, including apple, pear, peach, Japanese apricot, and kiwifruit among others. In this review, we briefly describe the physiological bases of the dormancy cycle and how it is genetically regulated, with a particular emphasis on DAM and SVP-like genes. We also provide a detailed report of the most recent advances about the transcriptional regulation of these genes by seasonal cues, epigenetics and plant hormones. From this information, we propose a tentative classification of DAM and SVP-like genes based on their seasonal pattern of expression. Furthermore, we discuss the potential biological role of DAM and SVP-like genes in bud dormancy in antagonizing the function of FLOWERING LOCUS T-like genes. Finally, we draw a global picture of the possible role of DAM and SVP-like genes in the bud dormancy cycle and propose a model that integrates these genes in a molecular network of dormancy cycle regulation in temperate fruit trees.

A collection of European sweet cherry phenology data for assessing climate change

Professional and scientific networks built around the production of sweet cherry (Prunus avium L.) led to the collection of phenology data for a wide range of cultivars grown in experimental sites characterized by highly contrasted climatic conditions. We present a dataset of flowering and maturity dates, recorded each year for one tree when available, or the average of several trees for each cultivar, over a period of 37 years (1978-2015). Such a dataset is extremely valuable for characterizing the phenological response to climate change, and the plasticity of the different cultivars' behaviour under different environmental conditions. In addition, this dataset will support the development of predictive models for sweet cherry phenology exploitable at the continental scale, and will help anticipate breeding strategies in order to maintain and improve sweet cherry production in Europe.

Differentiated dynamics of bud dormancy and growth in temperate fruit trees relating to bud phenology adaptation, the case of apple and almond trees

Few studies have focused on the characterization of bud dormancy and growth dynamics for temperate fruit species in temperate and mild cropping areas, although this is an appropriate framework to anticipate phenology adaptation facing future warming contexts which would potentially combine chill declines and heat increases. To examine this issue, two experimental approaches and field observations were used for high- and low-chill apple cultivars in temperate climate of southern France and in mild climates of northern Morocco and southern Brazil. Low-chill almond cultivars offered an additional relevant plant material for comparison with apple in northern Morocco. Divergent patterns of dormancy and growth dynamics were clearly found in apple tree between southern France and southern Brazil. Divergences were less pronounced between France and Morocco. A global view outlined main differences in the dormancy chronology and intensity, the transition between endordormancy and ecodormancy and the duration of ecodormancy. A key role of bud rehydration in the transition period was shown. High-chill cultivars would be submitted in mild conditions to heterogeneous rehydration capacities linked to insufficient chill fulfillment and excessive forcing linked to high temperatures. This would favor bud competitions and consequently excessive flowering durations and weak flowering. Low chilling requirements in apple and almond would conversely confer biological capacities to tolerate superficial dormancy and abrupt transition from endordormancy to ecodormancy without important heterogeneous rehydration states within buds. It may also assume that low-chill cultivars can also tolerate high temperatures during ecodormancy as well as extended flowering durations.

Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break

The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future.