A global analysis of COVID-19 infection fatality rate and its associated factors during the Delta and Omicron variant periods: an ecological study

COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and its association with knowledge and attitude among patients with chronic diseases in Ethiopia

COVID-19 vaccine acceptance is crucial for patients with chronic diseases, but previous studies in Ethiopia have yielded inconsistent and inconclusive findings. To fill this gap, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis following established guidelines. Our search included relevant articles published between 2019 and 2023 from various sources. We assessed study heterogeneity and publication bias, and performed subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Our findings indicate that the COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rate among patients with chronic diseases in Ethiopia was 55.4%. We also found that good knowledge and a favorable attitude toward the vaccine were positively associated with the acceptance rate. Based on these results, we recommend that healthcare professionals, policymakers, and healthcare guide developers should work more to address the relatively low acceptance rate. Improving the knowledge and attitude further about the COVID-19 vaccines is crucial. Future research should include community-based and qualitative studies to enhance our understanding of vaccines acceptance.

Association of pre-existing depression and anxiety with Omicron variant infection

Pre-existing psychiatric disorders were linked to an increased susceptibility to COVID-19 during the initial outbreak of the pandemic, while evidence during Omicron prevalence is lacking. Leveraging data from two prospective cohorts in China, we identified incident Omicron infections between January 2023 and April 2023. Participants with a self-reported history or self-rated symptoms of depression or anxiety before the Omicron pandemic were considered the exposed group, whereas the others were considered unexposed. We employed multivariate logistic regression models to examine the association of pre-existing depression or anxiety with the risk of any or severe Omicron infection indexed by medical interventions or severe symptoms. Further, we stratified the analyses by polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for COVID-19 and repeated the analyses using the UK Biobank data. We included 10,802 individuals from the Chinese cohorts (mean age = 51.1 years, 45.6% male), among whom 7841 (72.6%) were identified as cases of Omicron infection. No association was found between any pre-existing depression or anxiety and the overall risk of Omicron infection (odds ratio [OR] =1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95-1.14). However, positive associations were noted for severe Omicron infection, either as infections requiring medical interventions (1.26, 1.02-1.54) or with severe symptoms (≥3: 1.73, 1.51-1.97). We obtained comparable estimates when stratified by COVID-19 PRS level. Additionally, using clustering method, we identified eight distinct symptom patterns and found associations between pre-existing depression or anxiety and the patterns characterized by multiple or complex severe symptoms including cough and taste and smell decline (ORs = 1.42-2.35). The results of the UK Biobank analyses corroborated findings of the Chinese cohorts. In conclusion, pre-existing depression and anxiety was not associated with the risk of Omicron infection overall but an elevated risk of severe Omicron infection, supporting the continued efforts on monitoring and possible early intervention in this high-risk population during Omicron prevalence.

Antibody levels versus vaccination status in the outcome of older adults with COVID-19

BACKGROUNDDespite the currently prevailing, milder Omicron variant of COVID-19, older adults remain at elevated risk of hospital admission, critical illness, and death. Loss of efficacy of the immune system, including reduced strength, quality, and durability of antibody responses, may render generalized recommendations on booster vaccinations inadequate. There is a lack of data on the efficacy of antibody levels in older adults and on the utility of vaccination status versus antibody levels as a correlate of protection. It is further unclear whether antibody levels may be used to guide the timing of booster vaccinations in older adults.METHODSWe conducted a prospective multicenter cohort study comprising hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies were measured on hospital admission. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Patients were stratified by age, antibody levels, and vaccination status. Multiple logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were conducted.RESULTSIn total, 785 older patients (≥60 years of age [a]) and 367 controls (<60a) were included. After adjusting for confounders, risk of mortality, ICU admission, endotracheal intubation, and oxygen administration was 4.9, 2.6, 6.5, and 2.3 times higher, respectively, if antibody levels were < 1,200 BAU/mL (aOR, 4.92 [95%CI, 2.59-9.34], P < 0.0001; aOR, 2.64 [95%CI, 1.52-4.62], P = 0.0006; aOR, 6.50 [95%CI, 1.48-28.47], P = 0.013; aOR, 2.34 [95%CI, 1.60-3.343], P < 0.0001). Older adults infected with the Omicron variant were approximately 6 times more likely to die if antibody levels were < 1,200 BAU/mL (aOR, 6.3 [95% CI, 2.43-16.40], P = 0.0002).CONCLUSIONAntibody levels were a stronger predictor of in-hospital mortality than vaccination status. Monitoring antibody levels may constitute a better and more direct approach for safeguarding older adults from adverse COVID-19 outcomes.

Country-specific determinants for COVID-19 case fatality rate and response strategies from a global perspective: an interpretable machine learning framework

BACKGROUND

There are significant geographic inequities in COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs), and comprehensive understanding its country-level determinants in a global perspective is necessary. This study aims to quantify the country-specific risk of COVID-19 CFR and propose tailored response strategies, including vaccination strategies, in 156 countries.

METHODS

Cross-temporal and cross-country variations in COVID-19 CFR was identified using extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) including 35 factors from seven dimensions in 156 countries from 28 January, 2020 to 31 January, 2022. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used to further clarify the clustering of countries by the key factors driving CFR and the effect of concurrent risk factors for each country. Increases in vaccination rates was simulated to illustrate the reduction of CFR in different classes of countries.

FINDINGS

Overall COVID-19 CFRs varied across countries from 28 Jan 2020 to 31 Jan 31 2022, ranging from 68 to 6373 per 100,000 population. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the determinants of CFRs first changed from health conditions to universal health coverage, and then to a multifactorial mixed effect dominated by vaccination. In the Omicron period, countries were divided into five classes according to risk determinants. Low vaccination-driven class (70 countries) mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and include the majority of low-income countries (95.7%) with many concurrent risk factors. Aging-driven class (26 countries) mainly distributed in high-income European countries. High disease burden-driven class (32 countries) mainly distributed in Asia and North America. Low GDP-driven class (14 countries) are scattered across continents. Simulating a 5% increase in vaccination rate resulted in CFR reductions of 31.2% and 15.0% for the low vaccination-driven class and the high disease burden-driven class, respectively, with greater CFR reductions for countries with high overall risk (SHAP value > 0.1), but only 3.1% for the ageing-driven class.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence from this study suggests that geographic inequities in COVID-19 CFR is jointly determined by key and concurrent risks, and achieving a decreasing COVID-19 CFR requires more than increasing vaccination coverage, but rather targeted intervention strategies based on country-specific risks.

Estimation of standardized real-time fatality rate for ongoing epidemics

BACKGROUND

The fatality rate is a crucial metric for guiding public health policies during an ongoing epidemic. For COVID-19, the age structure of the confirmed cases changes over time, bringing a substantial impact on the real-time estimation of fatality. A 'spurious decrease' in fatality rate can be caused by a shift in confirmed cases towards younger ages even if the fatalities remain unchanged across different ages.

METHODS

To address this issue, we propose a standardized real-time fatality rate estimator. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the estimator. The proposed method is applied for real-time fatality rate estimation of COVID-19 in Germany from March 2020 to May 2022.

FINDINGS

The simulation results suggest that the proposed estimator can provide an accurate trend of disease fatality in all cases, while the existing estimator may convey a misleading signal of the actual situation when the changes in temporal age distribution take place. The application to Germany data shows that there was an increment in the fatality rate at the implementation of the 'live with COVID' strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

As many countries have chosen to coexist with the coronavirus, frequent examination of the fatality rate is of paramount importance.

Changing patterns of bacterial profile and antimicrobial resistance in high-risk patients during the COVID-19 pandemic at a tertiary oncology hospital

The widespread evolution of phenotypic resistance in clinical isolates over the years, coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic onset, has exacerbated the global challenge of antimicrobial resistance. This study aimed to explore changes in bacterial infection patterns and antimicrobial resistance during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study involved the periods before and during COVID-19: the pre-pandemic and pandemic eras. The surveillance results of bacterial isolates causing infections in cancer patients at an Egyptian tertiary oncology hospital were retrieved. The Vitek®2 or Phoenix systems were utilized for species identification and susceptibility testing. Statistical analyses were performed comparing microbiological trends before and during the pandemic. Out of 2856 bacterial isolates, Gram-negative bacteria (GNB) predominated (69.7%), and Gram-positive bacteria (GPB) comprised 30.3% of isolates. No significant change was found in GNB prevalence during the pandemic (P = 0.159). Elevated rates of Klebsiella and Pseudomonas species were demonstrated during the pandemic, as was a decrease in E. coli and Acinetobacter species (P < 0.001, 0.018, < 0.001, and 0.046, respectively) in hematological patients. In surgical patients, Enterobacteriaceae significantly increased (P = 0.012), while non-fermenters significantly decreased (P = 0.007). GPB species from either hematological or surgical wards exhibited no notable changes during the pandemic. GNB resistance increased in hematological patients to carbapenems, amikacin, and tigecycline and decreased in surgical patients to amikacin and cefoxitin (P < 0.001, 0.010, < 0.001, < 0.001, and 0.016, respectively). The study highlights notable shifts in the microbial landscape during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in the prevalence and resistance patterns of GNB in hematological and surgical wards.

Effectiveness of early pharmaceutical interventions in symptomatic COVID-19 patients: A randomized clinical trial

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the effectiveness of oral Hydroxychloroquine (HC), Azithromycin (AZ) and Oseltamivir (OS), alone or combined, among patients hospitalized with mildly symptomatic coronavirus infectious disease (COVID-19).

METHODS

Following the approval of the National Bioethics Committee and prospective registration (clinicaltrials.gov NCT04338698), a multicenter randomized clinical trial of adaptive design was conducted at 10 multispecialty hospitals in Pakistan. Patients were randomized into seven treatment groups. Starting April 15, 2020, consenting, eligible, otherwise healthy adult patients or those with co-morbidities under control, were recruited if they presented with mildly symptomatic COVID-19 (scored 3 on a 7-point ordinal scale anchored between 1 = not hospitalized, able to undertake normal activities, to 7 = death) confirmed by quantitative Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (qRT-PCR). Two primary outcomes were assessed by day seven: Turning qRT-PCR negative; and clinical improvement of two points from the baseline. Outcome rates were compared using a chi-square test. Multiple imputations were applied to handle missing data. An interim data analysis was carried out on July 19, 2020, following which the study continued without treatment group changes. Data Safety and Monitoring Board advised to stop recruitment due to its futility on January 18, 2021.

RESULTS

Of 471 patients randomized, a total of 426 (90.4%) completed the follow-up for primary outcomes. Based on imputed data analyses at day seven: Total qRT-PCR negative cases were 137/471 (29%, 95% CI 25.0 - 33.4). By day seven, a total of 111/471 (23.5%, 95% CI 19.8 - 27.6) showed clinical improvement. No serious or non-serious adverse event was reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with mild COVID-19, there was no statistically significant difference in the effectiveness of oral antimalarial, antiviral, or antibiotic treatments.Clinicaltrials.gov ID: NCT04338698.

Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Outcomes in Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes: A Three-Year Retrospective Study

Background and Objectives: This comprehensive retrospective study assesses COVID-19 outcomes in type 1 (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients across three years, focusing on how these outcomes varied with the evolving pandemic and changes in diabetes management. The study aims to determine if COVID-19 outcomes, including severity, intensive care unit (ICU) admission rates, duration of hospitalization, and mortality, are significantly different between these diabetes subtypes. Materials and Methods: The study analyzed data from patients admitted to the Victor Babes Hospital for Infectious Diseases and Pulmonology with confirmed COVID-19 and pre-existing diabetes, from the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. Results: Among 486 patients (200 without diabetes, 62 with T1D, 224 with T2D), T2D patients showed notably higher severity, with 33.5% experiencing severe cases, compared to 25.8% in T1D. Mortality rates were 11.6% in T2D and 8.1% in T1D. T2D patients had longer hospital stays (11.6 ± 7.0 days) compared to T1D (9.1 ± 5.8 days) and were more likely to require ICU admission (OR: 2.24) and mechanical ventilation (OR: 2.46). Hyperglycemia at admission was significantly higher in the diabetes groups, particularly in T2D (178.3 ± 34.7 mg/dL) compared to T1D (164.8 ± 39.6 mg/dL). Conclusions: The study reveals a discernible difference in COVID-19 outcomes between T1D and T2D, with T2D patients having longer hospital admissions, mechanical ventilation necessities, and mortality risks.

Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Testing: Role and Indications

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, over 769 million confirmed COVID-19 cases, including close to 7 million COVID-19-related deaths, have been reported. Although mortality rates have dropped notably compared to the first months of the pandemic, spikes in reported cases and mortality rates continue to be registered. Both recent spikes in case numbers and the continued emergence of new variants suggest that vulnerable patient groups, including older adults, immunocompromised patients, and patients with severe comorbidities, are going to continue to be affected by COVID-19. In order to curb the pandemic, relieve the pressure on primary care facilities, and reduce mortality rates, global vaccination programs have been established by the WHO, with over 13.5 billion vaccine doses having been administered globally. In most immunocompetent individuals, vaccination against COVID-19 results in the production of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies. However, certain patient subsets have inadequate or reduced immune responses, and immune responses are known to decrease with age. General recommendations on the timing of booster vaccinations may therefore be insufficient to protect vulnerable patients. This review aims to evaluate the clinical role of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, focusing on measurement indications, prognostic value, and potential as a correlate of protection to guide future booster vaccination strategies.

Analyzing the emerging patterns of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants for the development of next-gen vaccine: An observational study

Background and Aim

Understanding the prevalence and impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants has assumed paramount importance. This study statistically analyzed to effectively track the emergence and spread of the variants and highlights the importance of such investigations in developing potential next-gen vaccine to combat the continuously emerging Omicron subvariants.

Methods

Transmission fitness advantage and effective reproductive number (R e) of epidemiologically relevant SARS-CoV-2 sublineages through time during the study period based on the GISAID data were estimated.

Results

The analyses covered the period from January to June 2023 around an array of sequenced samples. The dominance of the XBB variant strain, accounting for approximately 57.63% of the cases, was identified during the timeframe. XBB.1.5 exhibited 37.95% prevalence rate from March to June 2023. Multiple variants showed considerable global influence throughout the study, as sporadically documented. Notably, the XBB variant demonstrated an estimated relative 28% weekly growth advantage compared with others. Numerous variants were resistant to the over-the-counter vaccines and breakthrough infections were reported. Similarly, the efficacy of mAB-based therapy appeared limited. However, it's important to underscore the perceived benefits of these preventive and therapeutic measures were restricted to specific variants.

Conclusion

Given the observed trends, a comprehensive next-gen vaccine coupled with an advanced vaccination strategy could be a potential panacea in the fight against the pandemic. The findings suggest that targeted vaccine development could be an effective strategy to prevent infections. The study also highlights the need of global collaborations to rapidly develop and distribute the vaccines to ensure global human health.