Potential Years of Life Lost Due to COVID-19 in the United States, Italy, and Germany: An Old Formula with Newer Ideas

Socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on foodborne illnesses in the United States

Foodborne diseases continue to impact human health and the economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically affected the food system from production to consumption. This project aims to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the spread of foodborne diseases and the factors that may have contributed, including environmental, behavioral, political, and socioeconomic. Data for this study were collected from The Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) for 2015-2020. FoodNet personnel located at state health departments regularly contact the clinical laboratories in Connecticut (CT), Georgia (GA), Maryland (MD), Minnesota (MN), New Mexico (NM), Oregon (OR), Tennessee (TN), and selected counties in California (CA), Colorado (CO), and New York (NY). Data were analyzed using SAS to determine the changes in rates of foodborne pathogens reported in FoodNet before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the ten reporting states. Results of the study showed a significant decline in the incidences of foodborne diseases ranging between 25% and 60%. A geographical variation was also observed between California and states with the highest decline rate of foodborne illnesses. Policies and restrictions, in addition to environmental and behavioral changes during the COVID-19 pandemic, may have reduced rates of foodborne diseases.

Years of life lost (YLL) associated with COVID-19 deaths in Khorasan-RAZAVI province, Iran

BACKGROUND

The number of deaths among people with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) does not show the true impact of the disease on communities. Therefore, this study aimed to calculate years of life lost (YLL) due to premature death in patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

We performed a descriptive cross-sectional study based on data from one of the largest provinces of Iran, in the period 13 February 2020 to 17 May 2021. We used WHO proposed guidelines for the calculation of the burden of diseases to calculate the YLL among patients with COVID-19, taking into consideration gender in different age groups.

RESULTS

Findings showed that 13 628 deaths were due to COVID-19 with associated 249 309 YLL. The study reported higher mortality among men (1222 cases) in the age group over 85 years than in women (840) of the same age group. The minimum number of YLL for men was 1749 in the 5-9 years age group and that for women was 1551 years in the 14-10 years age group.

CONCLUSION

The high number of deaths due to COVID-19 has led to high YLL due to premature death. The provision of adequate health care and appropriate policies will bring about a decrease in YLL due to COVID-19.

In-hospital mortality of COVID-19 in Iranian children and youth: A multi-centre retrospective cohort study

Background

COVID-19 presents as a mild and less severe respiratory disease among children. However, it is still lethal and could lead to death in paediatric cases. The current study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics of children and young people hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Qazvin-Iran. We also investigated the risk factors of death due to COVID-19 in paediatric cases.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study on 645 children and young people (ages 0-17) hospitalized since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The cases were confirmed with positive results of reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The data were retrieved from an electronic database of demographic, epidemiological, and clinical characteristics.

Results

The median age of the admitted patients was 4.0 years, 33.6% were under 12 months old, and 53.0% were female. Fever, cough, nausea/vomiting, dyspnoea, and myalgia were the most common symptoms presented by 50.5%, 47.6%, 24.2%, and 23.0% of the patients, respectively. Overall, we observed 16 cases of death and the in-hospital fatality rate was 2.5%. We also found comorbidity as an independent risk factor of death (odds ratio (OR) = 3.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-12.1, P-value = 0.022). Finally, we observed an increased risk of death in patients with dyspnoea (OR = 11.0, 95% CI = 2.8-43.7).

Conclusion

In-hospital mortality was relatively high in paediatric patients who were hospitalized due to COVID-19 in Iran. The risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, and death was higher among children with younger ages, underlying causes, and dyspnoea.

COVID-19: years of life lost (YLL) and saved (YLS) as an expression of the role of vaccination

When evaluating vaccine efficacy, the conventional measures include reduction of risk of hospitalization and death. The number of patients dying with or without vaccination is often in the public spotlight. However, when evaluating public health interventions or the burden of disease, it is more illustrative to use mortality metrics taking into account also prematurity of the deaths, such as years of life lost (YLL) or years of life saved (YLS) thanks to the vaccination. We develop this approach for evaluation of the difference in YLL and YLS between COVID-19 victims with or without completed vaccination in the autumn pandemic wave (2021, October-December) in Czechia. For the analysis, individual data about all COVID-19 deaths in the country (N = 5797, during the studied period) was used. While 40.6% of the deaths are in cohorts with completed vaccination, this corresponds to 35.1% of years of life lost. The role of vaccination is expressed using YLS and hypothetical numbers of deaths. The registered number of deaths is approximately 3.5 times lower than it would be expected without vaccination. The results illustrate that vaccination is more effective in saving lives than suggested by simplistic comparisons.

Burden of COVID-19: DALY and productivity loss for Karnataka, India

Background

COVID-19 is a pandemic that is devastating the world right now quelling over 2.5 million people worldwide. Similarly, in India and its largest southern state Karnataka, the coronavirus is responsible for around 161,000 and 12,449 deaths, respectively. These numbers capture the havoc caused by this novel coronavirus, but fail to discern the complete picture.

Objectives

Broadly, this study aimed to study the mortality, morbidity, and the economic issues inflicted by the COVID-19 in the state of Karnataka. Specifically, the study used publically available epidemiological data to study both mortality and morbidity by means of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Furthermore, the study aimed at estimating the permanent losses to the state gross domestic product (SGDP) due to the pandemic.

Materials and Methods

Publicly available epidemiological data are used from selected sources and DALYs are computed. The permanent loss to the SGDP is estimated using the human capital approach.

Results

The total DALYs for Karnataka are computed to be 22,506 of which 22,041 correspond to mortality and remaining correspond to morbidity. Financially, Karnataka lost around 208 years of productive years of lives costing around ₹590 million rupees to the SGDP.

Conclusions

It is found that major burden of COVID-19 during study period is due to mortality. Morbidity accounts for around 2% of the total DALYs. Males are the most affected by the mortality and also the morbidity. With respect to loss in productivity, the losses due to premature mortality of COVID-19 amounted to ₹590 million.

Years of life lost associated with COVID-19 deaths in the USA during the first 2 years of the pandemic

Background

Prior estimates of the years of life lost (YLLs) in the USA associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) were 1.2 million through 11 July 2020 and 3.9 million through 31 January 2021 (which roughly coincides with the first full year of the pandemic). The aim of this study is to update YLL estimates through the first 2 years of the pandemic.

Methods

We employed data regarding COVID-19 deaths through 5 February 2022 by jurisdiction, gender and age group. We used actuarial life expectancy tables by gender and age to estimate YLLs.

Results

We estimated roughly 9.7 million YLLs due to COVID-19 deaths. The number of YLLs per 10 000 capita was 297.5, with the highest rate in Mississippi (482.7) and the lowest in Vermont (61.4). There was substantial interstate variation in the timing of YLLs and differences in YLLs by gender. YLLs per death increased from 9.2 in the first year of the pandemic to 10.8 through the first 2 years.

Conclusions

Our findings improve our understanding of how the mortality effects of COVID-19 have evolved. This insight can be valuable to public health officials as the disease moves to an endemic phase.

Burden of COVID-19 Mortality and Morbidity in Poland in 2020

In 2020 COVID-19 caused 41,442 deaths in Poland. We aimed to estimate the burden of COVID-19 using years of potential life lost (YPLL) and quality-adjusted years of life lost (QALYL). YPLL were calculated by multiplying the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the analyzed age/sex group by the residual life expectancy for that group. Standard and country-specific (local) life tables were used to calculate SPYLL and LPYLL, respectively. QALYL were calculated adjusting LPYLL due to COVID-19 death by age/sex specific utility values. Deaths from COVID-19 in Poland in 2020 caused loss of 630,027 SPYLL, 436,361 LPYLL, and 270,572 QALYL. The loss was greater among men and rose with age reaching the maximum among men aged 65–69 and among women aged 70–74. Burden of COVID-19 in terms of YPLL is proportionate to external-cause deaths and was higher than the burden of disease in the respiratory system. Differential effects by sex and age indicate important heterogeneities in the mortality effects of COVID-19 and justifies policies based not only on age, but also on sex. Comparison with YPLL due to other diseases showed that mortality from COVID-19 represents a substantial burden on both society and on individuals in Poland.

The cost of lost productivity due to premature mortality associated with COVID-19: a Pan-European study

BACKGROUND

Economic cost estimates have the potential to provide a valuable alternative perspective on the COVID-19 burden. We estimate the premature mortality productivity costs associated with COVID-19 across Europe.

METHODS

We calculated excess deaths between the date the cumulative total of COVID-19 deaths reached 10 in a country to 15th May 2020 for nine countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland). Gender- and age-specific excess deaths and Years of Potential Productive Life Lost (YPPLL) between 30 and 74 years were calculated and converted into premature mortality productivity costs €2020 for paid and unpaid work using the Human Capital and the Proxy Good Approaches. Costs were discounted at 3.5%.

RESULTS

Total estimated excess deaths across the nine countries were 18,614 (77% in men) and YPPLL were 134,190 (77% male). Total paid premature mortality costs were €1.07 billion (87% male) with Spain (€0.35 billion, 33.0% of total), Italy (€0.22 billion; 20.6%) and The Netherlands (€0.19 billion; 17.5%) ranking highest. Total paid and unpaid premature mortality costs were €2.89 billion (77% male). Premature mortality costs per death ranged between €40,382 (France) and €350,325 (Switzerland). Spain experienced the highest premature mortality cost as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (0.11%).

CONCLUSION

Even in the initial period of the pandemic in Europe, COVID-19-related premature mortality costs were significant across Europe. We provide policy makers and researchers with a valuable alternative perspective on the burden of the virus and highlight potential economic savings that may be accrued by applying timely public health measures.

Is Mandatory Vaccination in Population over 60 Adequate to Control the COVID-19 Pandemic in E.U.?

Vaccine hesitancy, which potentially leads to the refusal or delayed acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, is considered a key driver of the increasing death toll from the pandemic in the EU. The European Commission and several member states’ governments are either planning or have already directly or indirectly announced mandatory vaccination for individuals aged over 60, the group which has repeatedly proved to be the most vulnerable. In this paper, an assessment of this strategy’s benefits is attempted by deriving a metric for the potential gains of vaccination mandates that can be used to compare EU member states. This is completed by examining the reduction in Standard Expected Years of Life Lost (SEYLL) per person for the EU population over 60 as a function of the member states’ vaccination percentage in these ages. The publicly available data and results of the second iteration of the SHARE COVID-19 survey on the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines, conducted during the summer of 2021, are used as inputs.

Premature mortality attributable to COVID-19: potential years of life lost in 17 countries around the world, January-August 2020

BACKGROUND

Understanding the impact of the burden of COVID-19 is key to successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a larger investigation on COVID-19 mortality impact, this study aims to estimate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 17 countries and territories across the world (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States [USA]).

METHODS

Age- and sex-specific COVID-19 death numbers from primary national sources were collected by an international research consortium. The study period was established based on the availability of data from the inception of the pandemic to the end of August 2020. The PYLL for each country were computed using 80 years as the maximum life expectancy.

RESULTS

As of August 2020, 442,677 (range: 18-185,083) deaths attributed to COVID-19 were recorded in 17 countries which translated to 4,210,654 (range: 112-1,554,225) PYLL. The average PYLL per death was 8.7 years, with substantial variation ranging from 2.7 years in Australia to 19.3 PYLL in Ukraine. North and South American countries as well as England & Wales, Scotland and Sweden experienced the highest PYLL per 100,000 population; whereas Australia, Slovenia and Georgia experienced the lowest. Overall, males experienced higher PYLL rate and higher PYLL per death than females. In most countries, most of the PYLL were observed for people aged over 60 or 65 years, irrespective of sex. Yet, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Israel, Peru, Scotland, Ukraine, and the USA concentrated most PYLL in younger age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of premature mortality.

Measuring the COVID-19 Mortality Burden in the United States : A Microsimulation Study

BACKGROUND

Fully assessing the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic requires measuring years of life lost (YLLs) and accounting for quality-of-life differences.

OBJECTIVE

To measure YLLs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost from the COVID-19 pandemic, by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and comorbidity.

DESIGN

State-transition microsimulation model.

DATA SOURCES

Health and Retirement Study, Panel Study of Income Dynamics, data on excess deaths from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and nursing home death counts from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.

TARGET POPULATION

U.S. population aged 25 years and older.

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

Individual.

INTERVENTION

COVID-19 pandemic through 13 March 2021.

OUTCOME MEASURES

YLLs and QALYs lost per 10 000 persons in the population. The estimates account for the age, sex, and race/ethnicity of decedents, along with obesity, smoking behavior, lung disease, heart disease, diabetes, cancer, stroke, hypertension, dementia, and nursing home residence.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in 6.62 million QALYs lost (9.08 million YLLs) through 13 March 2021, with 3.6 million (54%) lost by those aged 25 to 64 years. The greatest toll was on Black and Hispanic communities, especially among men aged 65 years or older, who lost 1138 and 1371 QALYs, respectively, per 10 000 persons. Absent the pandemic, 38% of decedents would have had average or above-average life expectancies for their subgroup defined by age, sex, and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Accounting for uncertainty in risk factors for death from COVID-19 yielded similar results.

LIMITATION

Estimates may vary depending on assumptions about mortality and quality-of-life projections.

CONCLUSION

Beyond excess deaths alone, the COVID-19 pandemic imposed a greater life expectancy burden on persons aged 25 to 64 years, including those with average or above-average life expectancies, and a disproportionate burden on Black and Hispanic communities.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute on Aging.

Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

Time series analysis.

SETTING

37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data.

PARTICIPANTS

Annual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for 2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Reduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected years of life lost in 2020 using the World Health Organization standard life table.

RESULTS

Reduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy in 2020. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. The highest reduction in life expectancy was observed in Russia (men: -2.33, 95% confidence interval -2.50 to -2.17; women: -2.14, -2.25 to -2.03), the United States (men: -2.27, -2.39 to -2.15; women: -1.61, -1.70 to -1.51), Bulgaria (men: -1.96, -2.11 to -1.81; women: -1.37, -1.74 to -1.01), Lithuania (men: -1.83, -2.07 to -1.59; women: -1.21, -1.36 to -1.05), Chile (men: -1.64, -1.97 to -1.32; women: -0.88, -1.28 to -0.50), and Spain (men: -1.35, -1.53 to -1.18; women: -1.13, -1.37 to -0.90). Years of life lost in 2020 were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and South Korea. In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million (95% confidence interval 26.8m to 29.5m) years of life lost more than expected (17.3 million (16.8m to 17.8m) in men and 10.8 million (10.4m to 11.3m) in women). The highest excess years of life lost per 100 000 population were observed in Bulgaria (men: 7260, 95% confidence interval 6820 to 7710; women: 3730, 2740 to 4730), Russia (men: 7020, 6550 to 7480; women: 4760, 4530 to 4990), Lithuania (men: 5430, 4750 to 6070; women: 2640, 2310 to 2980), the US (men: 4350, 4170 to 4530; women: 2430, 2320 to 2550), Poland (men: 3830, 3540 to 4120; women: 1830, 1630 to 2040), and Hungary (men: 2770, 2490 to 3040; women: 1920, 1590 to 2240). The excess years of life lost were relatively low in people younger than 65 years, except in Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and the US where the excess years of life lost was >2000 per 100 000.

CONCLUSION

More than 28 million excess years of life were lost in 2020 in 31 countries, with a higher rate in men than women. Excess years of life lost associated with the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 were more than five times higher than those associated with the seasonal influenza epidemic in 2015.

Twelve Smartphone Applications for Health Management of Older Adults during the COVID-19 Pandemic

This study investigated smartphone applications that may be helpful in managing the health of the elderly during COVID-19. The application searched the seven areas of health management, newly classified in OTPF 4th edition with keywords in the Google Play Store. As a result, two applications meeting the selection criteria were selected for each area. The selected applications are social and emotional health promotion and maintenance: Wysa & MindDoc, symptom and condition management: Ada & Diseases Dictionary, communication with the health care system: Telehealth & Blood Pressure Diary, medication management: Medisafe & MyTherapy, physical activity: FitOn & Samsung Health, nutrition management: Lifesum & Health and Nutrition Guide. Through the analyzed applications, twelve applications with the potential to improve the health management and quality of life in older adults during social distancing or self-isolation due to COVID-19 were identified.

Excess mortality from COVID and non-COVID causes in minority populations

The 2020 US mortality totaled 2.8 million after early March, which is 17.3% higher than age-population-weighted mortality over the same time interval in 2017 to 2019, for a total excess death count of 413,592. We use data on weekly death counts by cause, as well as life tables, to quantify excess mortality and life years lost from both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 causes by race/ethnicity, age, and gender/sex. Excess mortality from non-COVID-19 causes is substantial and much more heavily concentrated among males and minorities, especially Black, non-Hispanic males, than COVID-19 deaths. Thirty-four percent of the excess life years lost for males is from non-COVID-19 causes. While minorities represent 36% of COVID-19 deaths, they represent 70% of non-COVID-19 related excess deaths and 58% of non-COVID-19 excess life years lost. Black, non-Hispanic males represent only 6.9% of the population, but they are responsible for 8.9% of COVID-19 deaths and 28% of 2020 excess deaths from non-COVID-19 causes. For this group, nearly half of the excess life years lost in 2020 are due to non-COVID-19 causes.

The Mean Unfulfilled Lifespan (MUL): A new indicator of the impact of mortality shocks on the individual lifespan, with application to mortality reversals induced by COVID-19

Declines in period life expectancy at birth (PLEB) provide seemingly intuitive indicators of the impact of a cause of death on the individual lifespan. Derived under the assumption that future mortality conditions will remain indefinitely those observed during a reference period, however, their intuitive interpretation becomes problematic when period conditions reflect a temporary mortality "shock", resulting from a natural disaster or the diffusion of a new epidemic in the population for instance. Rather than to make assumptions about future mortality, I propose measuring the difference between a period average age at death and the average expected age at death of the same individuals (death cohort): the Mean Unfulfilled Lifespan (MUL). For fine-grained tracking of the mortality impact of an epidemic, I also provide an empirical shortcut to MUL estimation for small areas or short periods. For illustration, quarterly MUL values in 2020 are derived from estimates of COVID-19 deaths that might substantially underestimate overall mortality change in affected populations. These results nonetheless illustrate how MUL tracks the mortality impact of the pandemic in several national and sub-national populations. Using a seven-day rolling window, the empirical shortcut suggests MUL peaked at 6.43 years in Lombardy, 8.91 years in New Jersey, and 6.24 years in Mexico City for instance. Sensitivity analyses are presented, but in the case of COVID-19, the main uncertainty remains the potential gap between reported COVID-19 deaths and actual increases in the number of deaths induced by the pandemic in some of the most affected countries. Using actual number of deaths rather than reported COVID-19 deaths may increase seven-day MUL from 6.24 to 8.96 years in Mexico City and from 2.67 to 5.49 years in Lima for instance. In Guayas (Ecuador), MUL is estimated to have reached 12.7 years for the entire month of April 2020.

Economic Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Italian NHS: Focus on Diabetes Mellitus

Background

In Italy, the adoption of a total lockdown has generated almost total suspension of outpatient visits except for emergencies. Even after lockdown, the pandemic fear created additional barriers to access the health services. The aim of our study is to evaluate the economic impact of the lockdown for COVID-19 on public health in Italy, focusing on its effects on diabetic population.

Materials and Methods

We analyzed the impact of the lockdown on excess mortality and morbidity in the Italian diabetic population during 2020. The analysis was divided into several steps: a quantification of specialist visit reduction, the calculation of excess mortality in the diabetic population, the economic evaluation of the slowdown in the use of innovative diabetic therapies. Furthermore, the impact of the lockdown on the reduction of procedures and follow-up visits in diabetic population was evaluated. The overall impact of the pandemic and lockdown effects on costs and quality of life was then calculated.

Results

During 2020, a drop of 28% in patient access has been observed. Diabetic patients recorded a twice higher mortality value compared to general population (20.4% vs 10.2%). The analysis of market data revealed a slowdown in consumption of new antidiabetic therapies (−14%, 27% vs 41%). We estimated an expense of €26.6 million for NHS and a loss of 257 utilities in diabetic population due to the missed benefits related to slowdown in innovative antidiabetic drugs use and non-optimal follow-up and control of diabetes complications. In simulation scenarios, we also estimated an overall expenditure ranging from €38.7 to 94.0 million and a loss of 294–836 utilities.

Conclusion

Diabetic population paid a high tribute to pandemic and lockdown, both in terms of number of deaths and burden of diabetic complications, together with an overall deterioration of quality of life.

Different approaches to quantify years of life lost from COVID-19

The burden of an epidemic is often characterized by death counts, but this can be misleading as it fails to acknowledge the age of the deceased patients. Years of life lost is therefore widely used as a more relevant metric, however, such calculations in the context of COVID-19 are all biased upwards: patients dying from COVID-19 are typically multimorbid, having far worse life expectation than the general population. These questions are quantitatively investigated using a unique Hungarian dataset that contains individual patient level data on comorbidities for all COVID-19 deaths in the country. To account for the comorbidities of the patients, a parametric survival model using 11 important long-term conditions was used to estimate a more realistic years of life lost. As of 12 May, 2021, Hungary reported a total of 27,837 deaths from COVID-19 in patients above 50 years of age. The usual calculation indicates 10.5 years of life lost for each death, which decreases to 9.2 years per death after adjusting for 11 comorbidities. The expected number of years lost implied by the life table, reflecting the mortality of a developed country just before the pandemic is 11.1 years. The years of life lost due to COVID-19 in Hungary is therefore 12% or 1.3 years per death lower when accounting for the comorbidities and is below its expected value, but how this should be interpreted is still a matter of debate. Further research is warranted on how to optimally integrate this information into epidemiologic risk assessments during a pandemic.

Years of life lost by COVID-19 in Portugal and comparison with other European countries in 2020

BACKGROUND

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been measured in different metrics, mostly by counting deaths and its impact on health services. Few studies have attempted to calculate years of life lost (YLL) to COVID-19 and compare it with YLL due to other causes in different countries.

METHODS

We calculated YLL to COVID-19 from week10 to week52 in 2020 for eight European countries by methods defined by the WHO. We calculated excess YLL by subtracting the average YLL from 2017 to 2019 to the YLL in 2020. Our analysis compared YLL to COVID-19 and the excess YLL of non-COVID-19 causes across countries in Europe.

RESULTS

Portugal registered 394,573 cases and 6619 deaths due to COVID-19, accounting for 25,395 YLL in just 10 months. COVID-19 was responsible for 6.7% of all deaths but accounted for only 4.2% of all YLL. We estimate that Portugal experienced an excess of 35,510 YLL (+ 6.2%), of which 72% would have been due to COVID-19 and 28% due to non-COVID-19 causes. Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands experienced excess YLL to non-COVID-19 causes. We also estimated that Portugal experienced an excess of 10,115 YLL due to cancer (3805), cardiovascular diseases (786) and diseases of the respiratory system (525).

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 has had a major impact on mortality rates in Portugal, as well as in other European countries. The relative impact of COVID-19 on the number of deaths has been greater than on the number of YLL, because COVID-19 deaths occur mostly in advanced ages.

Economic burden of lives lost due to COVID-19 in New York State

Aim: To examine the economic impact of lives lost due to the COVID-19 pandemic across New York State. Materials & methods: Death counts by age range and period life expectancy were extracted from the NYS Department of Health, NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, and Social Security Administration website. Years of potential life lost and value of statistical life (VSL) were calculated. Results: The average years of potential life lost per person was 12.72 and 15.13, and the VSL was US$119.62 and 90.45 billion, in NYS and NYC, respectively. VSL was greatest in Queens and Brooklyn, followed by the Bronx, Manhattan and Staten Island. Conclusion: New York City, specifically Queens and Brooklyn, bore the greatest economic burden of lives lost across the state.

Male-Female Disparities in Years of Potential Life Lost Attributable to COVID-19 in the United States: A State-by-State Analysis

Males are at higher risk relative to females of severe outcomes following COVID-19 infection. Focusing on COVID-19-attributable mortality in the United States (U.S.), we quantify and contrast years of potential life lost (YPLL) attributable to COVID-19 by sex based on data from the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics as of 31 March 2021, specifically by contrasting male and female percentages of total YPLL with their respective percent population shares and calculating age-adjusted male-to-female YPLL rate ratios both nationally and for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Using YPLL before age 75 to anchor comparisons between males and females and a novel Monte Carlo simulation procedure to perform estimation and uncertainty quantification, our results reveal a near-universal pattern across states of higher COVID-19-attributable YPLL among males compared to females. Furthermore, the disproportionately high COVID-19 mortality burden among males is generally more pronounced when measuring mortality in terms of YPLL compared to age-irrespective death counts, reflecting dual phenomena of males dying from COVID-19 at higher rates and at systematically younger ages relative to females. The U.S. COVID-19 epidemic also offers lessons underscoring the importance of a public health environment that recognizes sex-specific needs as well as different patterns in risk factors, health behaviors, and responses to interventions between men and women. Public health strategies incorporating focused efforts to increase COVID-19 vaccinations among men are particularly urged.

Years of life lost associated with COVID-19 deaths in the USA during the first year of the pandemic

Background

Years of Life Lost (YLLs) measure the shortfall in life expectancy due to a medical condition and have been used in multiple contexts. Previously it was estimated that there were 1.2 million YLLs associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths in the USA through 11 July 2020. The aim of this study is to update YLL estimates for the first full year of the pandemic.

Methods

We employed data regarding COVID-19 deaths in the USA through 31 January 2021 by jurisdiction, gender and age group. We used actuarial life expectancy tables by gender and age to estimate YLLs.

Results

We estimated roughly 3.9 million YLLs due to COVID-19 deaths, which correspond to roughly 9.2 YLLs per death. We observed a large range across states in YLLs per 10 000 capita, with New York City at 298 and Vermont at 12. Nationally, the YLLs per 10 000 capita were greater for males than females (136.3 versus 102.3), but there was significant variation in the differences across states.

Conclusions

Our estimates provide further insight into the mortality effects of COVID-19. The observed differences across states and genders demonstrate the need for disaggregated analyses of the pandemic’s effects.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Years of Potential Life Lost Attributable to COVID-19 in the United States: An Analysis of 45 States and the District of Columbia

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in the United States has disproportionately impacted communities of color across the country. Focusing on COVID-19-attributable mortality, we expand upon a national comparative analysis of years of potential life lost (YPLL) attributable to COVID-19 by race/ethnicity (Bassett et al., 2020), estimating percentages of total YPLL for non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics, non-Hispanic Asians, and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Natives, contrasting them with their respective percent population shares, as well as age-adjusted YPLL rate ratios—anchoring comparisons to non-Hispanic Whites—in each of 45 states and the District of Columbia using data from the National Center for Health Statistics as of 30 December 2020. Using a novel Monte Carlo simulation procedure to perform estimation, our results reveal substantial racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19-attributable YPLL across states, with a prevailing pattern of non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics experiencing disproportionately high and non-Hispanic Whites experiencing disproportionately low COVID-19-attributable YPLL. Furthermore, estimated disparities are generally more pronounced when measuring mortality in terms of YPLL compared to death counts, reflecting the greater intensity of the disparities at younger ages. We also find substantial state-to-state variability in the magnitudes of the estimated racial/ethnic disparities, suggesting that they are driven in large part by social determinants of health whose degree of association with race/ethnicity varies by state.

The Mean Unfulfilled Lifespan (MUL): A new indicator of the impact of mortality shocks on the individual lifespan, with application to global 2020 quarterly mortality from COVID-19

Declines in period life expectancy at birth (PLEB) provide intuitive indicators of the impact of a cause of death on the individual lifespan. Derived under the assumption that future mortality conditions will remain indefinitely those observed during a reference period, however, the intuitive interpretation of a PLEB becomes problematic when that period conditions reflect a temporary mortality "shock", resulting from a natural disaster or the diffusion of a new epidemic in the population for instance. Rather than to make assumptions about future mortality, I propose measuring the difference between a period average age at death and the average expected age at death of the same individuals (death cohort): the Mean Unfulfilled Lifespan (MUL). For fine-grained tracking of the mortality impact of an epidemic, I also provide an empirical shortcut to MUL estimation for small areas or short periods. For illustration, quarterly MUL values in 2020 are derived from estimates of COVID-19 deaths in 159 national populations and 122 sub-national populations in Italy, Mexico, Spain and the US. The highest quarterly values in national populations are obtained for Ecuador (5.12 years, second quarter) and Peru (4.56 years, third quarter) and, in sub-national populations, for New York (5.52 years), New Jersey (5.56 years, second quarter) and Baja California (5.19 years, fourth quarter). Using a seven-day rolling window, the empirical shortcut suggests the MUL peaked at 9.12 years in Madrid, 9.20 years in New York, and 9.15 years in Baja California, and in Guayas (Ecuador) it even reached 12.6 years for the entire month of April. Based on reported COVID-19 deaths that might substantially underestimate overall mortality change in affected populations, these results nonetheless illustrate how the MUL tracks the mortality impact of the pandemic, or any mortality shock, retaining the intuitive metric of differences in PLEB, without their problematic underlying assumptions.

Years of life lost associated with COVID-19 deaths in the United States

BACKGROUND

The mortality effects of COVID-19 are a critical aspect of the disease's impact. Years of life lost (YLLs) can provide greater insight than the number of deaths by conveying the shortfall in life expectancy and thus the age profile of the decedents.

METHODS

We employed data regarding COVID-19 deaths in the USA by jurisdiction, gender and age group for the period 1 February 2020 through 11 July 2020. We used actuarial life expectancy tables by gender and age to estimate YLLs.

RESULTS

We estimated roughly 1.2 million YLLs due to COVID-19 deaths. The YLLs for the top six jurisdictions exceeded those for the remaining 43. On a per-capita basis, female YLLs were generally higher than male YLLs throughout the country.

CONCLUSIONS

Our estimates offer new insight into the effects of COVID-19. Our findings of heterogenous rates of YLLs by geography and gender highlight variation in the magnitude of the pandemic's effects that may inform effective policy responses.

Lost Generations: Long-Term Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis on Job Losers and Labour Market Entrants, and Options for Policy

This paper discusses the potential long-run effects of large-scale unemployment during the COVID-19 crisis in the labour market on vulnerable job losers and labour market entrants in the United States. The paper begins by contrasting measures of the scale of job loss during the crisis. These measures are paired with estimates from past recessions indicating that the costs of job loss and unemployment can reduce workers' earnings and raise their mortality for several decades. Focusing only on a subset of vulnerable job losers, the potential lifetime earnings losses from job loss related to the COVID-19 pandemic are predicted to be up to $2 trillion. Related losses in employment could imply a lasting reduction in the overall employment-population ratio. For these workers, losses in potential life years could be up to 24 million. Even at the low range, the resulting estimates are substantially larger than losses in potential life years from deaths directly due to COVID-19. New labour market entrants are at risk to suffer long-term losses in earnings and mortality as well. Based partly on experiences in other countries, the paper discusses potential reforms to short-time compensation programmes and unemployment insurance, which could help limit the short- and long-term harm from layoffs going forward.