Predicting the Distribution of the Invasive Species Leptocybe invasa: Combining MaxEnt and Geodetector Models

Assessing the impact of global warming on the distributions of Allium stipitatum and Kelussia odoratissima in the Central Zagros using a MaxEnt model

Global warming is an undeniable fact occurring in different parts of the world. Climate changes can have irreversible effects on plant communities, particularly on endemic and endangered species. Therefore, it is important to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of these species to help protect them. This study utilized the MaxEnt model to forecast the impact of climate change on the distributions of two medicinal, edible, and aromatic species, Kelussia odoratissima and Allium stipitatum, in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. The study used the CCSM4 general circulation model along with two climate scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, for the 2050s and 2070s to predict the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the species studied. The research findings indicated that the model performed effectively for prediction (AUC≥0.9). The primary environmental variables influencing species distribution were found to be isothermality (Bio3), soil organic carbon, and pH for A. stipitatum, and soil organic carbon, precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) for K. odoratissima. The findings suggest that the distribution of the studied species is expected to decline in the 2050s and 2070s due to climate change, under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The research indicates that climate change is likely to have a significantly negative effect on the habitats of these species, leading to important ecological and socio-economic impacts. Therefore, our study emphasizes the urgent need for conservation efforts to prevent their extinction and protect their habitats.

Habitat Suitability Analysis for Luehdorfia chinensis Leech, 1893 (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River: A Study Based on the MaxEnt Model

L. chinensis is a National Grade II Protected Animal in China, and predicting its suitable habitats in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is crucial for developing effective conservation strategies. This study uses methods such as the MaxEnt model to predict suitable habitats for L. chinensis in the region, providing a scientific basis for species conservation. The model results show that the AUC value of MaxEnt is 0.989, indicating excellent predictive performance. Under current climatic conditions, the area of highly suitable habitats for L. chinensis in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is 75.1 × 103 km2, accounting for 8.8% of the total area of the region. However, under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario, the predicted results indicate a general decline in suitable habitats for the species. This change signals that the survival of L. chinensis will face significant risks in the future, highlighting the urgent need to develop and implement scientifically effective conservation measures.

Forecasting the distribution range of Hylurgus ligniperda (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in the present and future under the influence of climate change

Hylurgus ligniperda (Fabricius) is an important pest that attacks Pinus species in China. It impacts the vitality of local pine vegetation, reduces the ability to prevent windbreak and sand fixation, and causes ecological loss. MaxEnt and ArcGIS are used to predict and analyze the changes in suitable distribution areas of H. ligniperda under current and future climate scenarios, based on 12 climate factor datasets and 1,001 field distribution data points for this pest. The environmental variables used significantly influence the potential distribution of H. ligniperda. Highly suitable areas of this beetle are located in western Europe, central Asia, and the southeastern regions of Oceania, with sporadic occurrences across North America, South America, and Africa. Highly suitable areas in China occur across the east, central south, and southwest regions. There is a significant increase in the high and medium suitability areas, while the area of low suitability decreases under the 4 future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). The suitable distribution area for H. ligniperda shows an overall trend of moving northwestward. The purpose of this current study is to provide important theoretical support for the prevention and management of this pest by predicting and analyzing suitable distribution areas under current and future climate scenarios.

Using ecological niches to determine potential habitat suitability for Psacothea hilaris (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) and its natural enemies in China under future climates

Climate change impacts the distribution of pests and its natural enemies, prompting this study to investigate the dynamics and shifts in distribution under current and future climate conditions. The spatial pattern of Psacothea hilaris (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in China was analyzed, and the MaxEnt model was optimized to predict the potential geographic distribution of P. hilaris and its two natural enemies (Dastarcus helophoroides (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Bothrideridae) and Dendrocopos major (Linnaeus) (Piciformes: Picidae)) in China, to further analyze the key environmental factors affecting the survival of P. hilaris and its natural enemies, and to determine the potential of using D. helophoroides and D. major as natural enemies to control P. hilaris. The results showed that the suitable ranges of P. hilaris and natural enemies are expanding under the influence of climate change, and both have migrated to higher latitudes. The potential ranges of D. helophoroides, D. major, and P. hilaris are highly similar. It is noteworthy that the potential range of D. helophoroides completely covers the potential range of P. hilaris. This indicates that D. helophoroides and D. major can be employed as biological control agents to manage P. hilaris populations. This study provides a theoretical framework and empirical evidence for the development of early warning and green control strategies for P. hilaris.

Niche Expansion Has Increased the Risk of Leptocybe invasa Fisher Et LaSalle Invasions at the Global Scale

Invasive alien species often undergo shifts in their ecological niches when they establish themselves in environments that differ from their native habitats. Leptocybe invasa Fisher et LaSalle (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), specifically, has caused huge economic losses to Eucalyptus trees in Australia. The global spread of eucalyptus cultivation has allowed L. invasa to threaten plantations beyond its native habitat. It is, therefore, urgent to implement effective control measures to mitigate the impact of this pest. The optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential global distribution of L. invasa based on occurrence data and environmental variables. The centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion (COUE) framework was employed to evaluate niche dynamics during the global invasion process by comparing the ecological niches of L. invasa in both native regions and regions affected by invasions (hereafter referred to as "invaded"). The results indicated that the distribution of L. invasa is primarily influenced by temperature, precipitation, and the human influence index variables. Its ecological niche was shown to have considerably expanded from native to invaded regions. Under future climate scenarios, the potential geographical distribution of L. invasa is projected to be concentrated primarily in East Asia, Southeast Asia, Western Europe, and Southern Oceania. In the future, the potentially suitable areas for the establishment of L. invasa are expected to further expand. This study provides a unified framework for exploring the niche dynamics of invasive alien species globally. Emphasizing early warning and control in uninvaded areas is crucial for minimizing L. invasa ecological and economic threats.

Impacts of Climate Change Conditions on the Potential Distribution of Anoplophora glabripennis and Its Host Plants, Salix babylonica and Salix matsudana, in China

The Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) is a phytophagous pest that is seriously endangering Salix babylonica Linn. and S. matsudana Koidz. Poor control can damage local ecosystems, resulting in economic losses and management risks. In the context of climate change, the climatic ecological niche of organisms is no longer compatible with the surrounding environment. To mitigate the effects of climate change, some organisms respond adaptively to climate change through different mechanisms and in different ways. In this study, an optimized MaxEnt model was used to explore the potential distribution areas of A. glabripennis and its host plants, S. babylonica and S. matsudana, in response to current and future climate and to determine their movement routes and relative dynamics. The results show that the optimized model exhibits the lowest complexity and excellent prediction accuracy. It is important to note that both temperature and precipitation are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for A. glabripennis and its host plants. This is evidenced by the mean temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the wettest month being the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for the host plants. Similarly, the minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the primary bioclimatic variables constraining the dispersal of A. glabripennis. Under climate change, the suitable areas of both S. babylonica and S. matsudana are declining, while the suitable areas of A. glabripennis are expanding in future climates. Furthermore, three species exhibited a proclivity for migration to higher latitudes in response to climate change. In conclusion, this study contributes to our understanding of the biogeographic characteristics of these A. glabripennis, S. babylonica, and S. matsudana and provides a basis for the formulation of timely conservation strategies to reduce the potential impacts of climate change. This is of great significance for the rational management, utilization, and protection of forest ecosystems in China.

The Effects of Global Climate Warming on the Developmental Parameters of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner, 1808) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner, 1808) is a significant global agricultural pest, particularly posing a major threat during the boll-forming stage of cotton. In recent years, the severity of its damage has increased markedly, and its population dynamics and biological characteristics may be profoundly affected by global climate change. This study conducted a systematic meta-analysis to evaluate the life history traits of H. armigera under conditions of rising global temperatures, different photoperiods, and humidity levels. A comprehensive analysis of 26 related studies revealed that different developmental stages of H. armigera have distinct temperature requirements. When the temperature is within an optimal range (32 °C to 35 °C), the development rate of H. armigera accelerates, the life cycle shortens, and the reproductive capacity of female moths increases. However, when the temperature exceeds 35 °C, development slows, mortality rates increase, and the oviposition of female moths decreases significantly, indicating a negative impact of high temperatures on growth and reproduction. Overall, as the temperature rises above 20 °C, various physiological indicators of H. armigera significantly improve, and at 32 °C, the larval development period and overall life cycle reach their shortest duration. This meta-analysis provides new insights into the biological responses of H. armigera in the context of climate change and offers a scientific basis for future control strategies.

Predicting the Invasion Risk of the Highly Invasive Acacia mearnsii in Asia under Global Climate Change

Acacia mearnsii, among the 100 worst invasive weeds worldwide, negatively impacts native biodiversity, agriculture, and natural ecosystems. Global climate change, characterized by rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, enhances the risk of A. mearnsii invasion in Asia, making it crucial to identify high-risk areas for effective management. This study performed species distribution modeling using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to predict the potential introduction and spread of A. mearnsii under various climate scenarios based on shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Currently, only 4.35% of Asia is invaded, with a high invasion risk identified in six countries, including Bhutan, Lebanon, and Taiwan, where more than 75% of their areas are threatened. Under future climate scenarios, 21 countries face invasion risk, among which 14 countries, such as Georgia, Laos, Republic of Korea, and Turkey, are at moderate to very high risk, potentially encompassing up to 87.89% of their territories. Conversely, Northern Asian countries exhibit minimal changes in invasion risk and are considered relatively safe from invasion. These findings underscore that climate change will exacerbate invasion risks across Asia, emphasizing the urgent need for robust management strategies, including stringent quarantine measures and control efforts, to mitigate the threat of A. mearnsii expansion.

Effects of Global Climate Warming on the Biological Characteristics of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) is a significant economic pest that has recently invaded Africa and Asia. However, much of the information regarding its ecological capabilities in these newly invaded environments remains largely unknown. In this study, the life history traits of the fall armyworm under conditions of increased temperature, different photoperiods, and varying humidity levels were systematically evaluated. Among 43 studies, a total of 20 studies were included in the analysis by passing the screening criteria, and random-effects meta-analysis, fixed-effects meta-analysis, and meta-regression were conducted. It has been found that with the increase in temperature above 20 °C, various physiological indicators of the fall armyworm are significantly enhanced. When the temperature reaches 32 °C, the physiological activities of S. frugiperda are at their highest point. As the temperature increases, the duration of each developmental stage of the fall armyworm decreases significantly, accompanied by an increase in oviposition quantity and period in females. Additionally, the pupal development time is shortened, which leads to an increase in the lifespan of the adult moth. Using temperature and relative humidity as environmental variables, the optimal survival conditions for each insect state of the fall armyworm were calculated. These findings can assist in predicting the population dynamics of the fall armyworm and in formulating appropriate and practical management strategies.

Determination of forest fire risk with respect to Marchalina hellenica potential distribution to protect pine honey production sites in Turkey

Turkey is the leading producer of pine honey worldwide, accounting for 90% of global production, largely due to the presence of Marchalina hellenica populations. However, in recent years, devastating forest fires have caused substantial damage to Pinus brutia forests and M. hellenica populations, leading to a dramatic decline in pine honey production areas. The urgency for early intervention procedures against forest fires and relocation of M. hellenica populations to other P. brutia forests has become apparent. A comprehensive assessment of 25 criteria was conducted to investigate the thresholds and behaviors of each criterion, which play a vital role in the distribution of M. hellenica, using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). To evaluate the impact of forest fires on the distribution of M. hellenica, the potential locations of pine honey production areas were determined for 2022. Furthermore, the susceptibility of forest fires was modeled for all pine honey production months. The findings revealed that forest fires have destroyed 384.9 km2 (12.8% of the total pine honey production area), predominantly in August and September, with the most severe damage in Marmaris (156 km2) and significant impacts in Ula, Köyceğiz, and Milas. The analysis facilitates the estimation of new areas suitable for M. hellenica and pine honey production while providing valuable insights into strategies for mitigating forest fires and formulating proactive protection protocols.

Influence of Endogenous Bacteria on Behavioral Responses in Leptocybe invasa: An Analysis of mVOCs

Microorganisms within insects play a vital role in maintaining the basal physiological functions of the insects, with olfactory signals as critical components of insect survival strategies. Leptocybe invasa (L. invasa), an invasive alien pest inflicting significant damage to eucalyptus trees, harbors a rich and varied bacterial community within its body. However, the impact of its endogenous bacteria and their microbial Volatile Organic Compounds (mVOCs) on the behavioral preferences of L. invasa remains unexplored to date. This study focused on nine cultivable and dominant endogenous bacterial strains within L. invasa. Using a Y-tube olfactometer, we investigated the behavioral responses of female L. invasa to the mVOCs emitted by these bacteria. Concurrently, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was employed to quantify the mVOCs produced by these endogenous bacteria. Our findings revealed that Staphylococcus sp. exhibited the highest attractiveness of L. invasa, whereas Microbacterium sp. and E. cloacae exerted the most significant avoidance effects. The analysis of the mVOCs further highlighted the significance of aldehyde compounds, notably 2,3,6-trichlorobenzaldehyde, and alkane compounds, such as eicosane, in mediating the repellency and attraction effects. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of the invasion mechanism of L. invasa and provide a scientific basis for developing novel biopesticides or elicitors.

Predicting suitable areas for Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) under climate change and implications for management

Climate change is a prominent factor reshaping the distribution of invasive species. Metcalfa pruinosa (Say 1830) (Hemiptera: Flatidae), native to North America, has invaded other continents and poses a serious threat to various agricultural crops and the human residential environment. Understanding the distribution of M. pruinosa based on climatic conditions is a critical first step to prevent its further invasion. Therefore, based on its occurrence records and associated environmental variables, a Maxent model was developed to predict suitable areas for this species in the present and future on a global scale. The model exhibited outstanding performance, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and true skill statistic values of 0.9329 and 0.926, respectively. The model also indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12) and max temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) were the key environmental variables limiting the distribution of M. pruinosa. Moreover, the model revealed that the current suitable area is 1.01 × 107 km2 worldwide, with southern China, southern Europe, and the eastern United States predicted to be the primary and highly suitable areas in the latter 2 regions. This area is expected to increase under future climate scenarios, mainly in the northern direction. The study's findings contribute to our understanding of climate change's impact on M. pruinosa distribution, and they will aid governments in developing appropriate pest management strategies, including global monitoring and strict quarantine measures.

Would future climate warming cause zoonotic diseases to spread over long distances?

Dipus sagitta is a major rodent found in arid environments and desert areas. They feed on plant seeds, young branches and some small insects, and have hibernating habits. Peak Dipus sagitta numbers impact the construction of the plant community in the environment, but also have a human impact as these rodents carry a variety of parasitic fleas capable of spreading serious diseases to humans. Based on 216 present distribution records of Dipus sagitta and seven environmental variables, this article simulates the potential distribution of Dipus sagitta during the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Holocene, the present and the future (2070s, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). This study also analyzes the geographic changes of the population distribution and evaluates the importance of climate factors by integrating contribution rate, replacement importance value and the jackknife test using the MaxEnt model. In this study, we opted to assess the predictive capabilities of our model using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and partial receiver operating characteristic (pROC) metrics. The findings indicate that the AUC value exceeds 0.9 and the AUC ratio is greater than 1, indicating superior predictive performance by the model. The results showed that the main climatic factors affecting the distribution of the three-toed jerboa were precipitation in the coldest quarter, temperature seasonality (standard deviation), and mean annual temperature. Under the two warming scenarios of the mid-Holocene and the future, there were differences in the changes in the distribution area of the three-toed jerboa. During the mid-Holocene, the suitable distribution area of the three-toed jerboa expanded, with a 93.91% increase in the rate of change compared to the Last Glacial Maximum. The size of the three-toed jerboa's habitat decreases under both future climate scenarios. Compared to the current period, under the RCP4.5 emission scenario, the change rate is -2.96%, and under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the change rate is -7.41%. This indicates a trend of contraction in the south and expansion in the north. It is important to assess changes in the geographic population of Dipus sagitta due to climate change to formulate population control strategies of these harmful rodents and to prevent and control the long-distance transmission of zoonotic diseases.

A MaxEnt Model of Citrus Black Fly Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) under Different Climate Change Scenarios

The citrus blackfly (CBF), Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby, is an exotic pest native to Southeast Asia that has spread rapidly to the world's main centers of citrus production, having been recently introduced to Brazil. In this study, a maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential worldwide distribution of CBF under current and future climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050. These future scenarios came from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution of CBF with area under receiver operator curve (AUC) values of 0.953 and 0.930 in the initial and final models, respectively. The average temperature of the coldest quarter months, precipitation of the rainiest month, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest month were the strongest predictors of CBF distribution, with contributions of 36.7%, 14.7%, 13.2%, and 10.2%, respectively. The model based on the current time conditions predicted that suitable areas for the potential occurrence of CBF, including countries such as Brazil, China, the European Union, the USA, Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco, are located in tropical and subtropical regions. Models from SSP1-2.6 (2030 and 2050) and SSP5-8.5 (2030) predicted that suitable habitats for CBF are increasing dramatically worldwide under future climate change scenarios, particularly in areas located in the southern US, southern Europe, North Africa, South China, and part of Australia. On the other hand, the SSP5-8.5 model of 2050 indicated a great retraction of the areas suitable for CBF located in the tropical region, with an emphasis on countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and India. In general, the CMIP6 models predicted greater risks of invasion and dissemination of CBF until 2030 and 2050 in the southern regions of the USA, European Union, and China, which are some of the world's largest orange producers. Knowledge of the current situation and future propagation paths of the pest serve as tools to improve the strategic government policies employed in CBF's regulation, commercialization, inspection, combat, and phytosanitary management.

Prediction of the potential distribution area of Spodoptera frugiperda and its parasitic wasp, Trichogramma pretiosum

Spodoptera frugiperda is a migratory agricultural pest with fast-spreading speed, long migration distance, and wide host range, which seriously threatens the safety of economic crops. To predict the trends of S. frugiperda and its parasitoid wasp Trichogramma pretiosum in their habitats under current and future climatic conditions, based on MaxEnt model and geographic distribution data of their historical occurrence, we project the feasibility of introducing T. pretiosum to control S. frugiperda by evaluating on their potential global distribution. The results show that, under the current greenhouse gas concentration, the potential distribution area of S. frugiperda is concentrated in 50° N-30° S, with a total area of 1.74 × 106  km2 , and the potential distribution area of T. pretiosum in the whole world is 2.91 × 106  km2 . The suitable areas of T. pretiosum cover almost all the suitable areas of S. frugiperda, which indicates that T. pretiosum can be introduced to control S. frugiperda. The results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for the monitoring and early warning of S. frugiperda and the use of T. pretiosum to control S. frugiperda.

Opening the floodgates for invasion-modelling the distribution dynamics of invasive alien fishes in India

Invasive alien species have become the second major threat to biodiversity affecting all three major ecosystems (terrestrial, marine, and freshwater). Increasing drivers such as habitat destruction, expanding horticulture and aquaculture industries, and global pet and food trade have created pathways for exotic species to be introduced leading to severe impacts on recipient ecosystems. Although relatively less studied than terrestrial ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems are highly susceptible to biological invasions. In India, there has been a noticeable increase in the introduction of alien fish species in freshwater environments. In the current study, we aimed to understand how climate change can affect the dynamics of the biological invasion of invasive alien fishes in India. We also evaluated the river-linking project's impact on the homogenization of biota in Indian freshwater bodies. We used species occurrence records with selected environmental variables to assess vulnerable locations for current and future biological invasion using species distribution models. Our study has identified and mapped the vulnerable regions to invasion in India. Our research indicates that the interlinking of rivers connects susceptible regions housing endangered fish species with invasive hotspots. Invasive alien fishes from the source basin may invade vulnerable basins and compete with the native species. Based on the results, we discuss some of the key areas for the management of these invasive alien species in the freshwater ecosystems.

Differences in Male-Killing Rickettsia Bacteria between Lineages of the Invasive Gall-Causing Pest Leptocybe invasa

(1) Background: Leptocybe invasa (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) is a global invasive pest that seriously damages eucalyptus plants and has caused serious harm to forestry production in many countries. Two genotypically distinct lineages of L. invasa have been detected outside of Australia, namely, lineage A and lineage B. However, the composition and abundance of endosymbiotic bacteria in L. invasa are still unclear between lineages. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to compare the bacterial communities in female adults of L. invasa of different lineages distributed in the same domain; (2) Methods: The PacBio Sequel II platform was used to compare bacterial community composition between lineages of L. invasa by sequencing the V1-V9 region of the 16S rRNA gene, and fluorescence quantitative PCR was used to compare the relative expression of Rickettsia between lineages of L. invasa; (3) Results: A total of 437 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were obtained. These OTUs were subdivided into 20 phyla, 32 classes, 77 orders, 129 families, and 217 genera. At the genus level, the dominant bacteria in lineage A and lineage B were Rickettsia and Bacteroides, respectively. There were differences in the bacterial community of L. invasa between lineages, and the abundance and relative expression of Rickettsia in lineage A were significantly higher than those in lineage B; (4) Conclusions: There were differences in the bacterial community of L. invasa between lineages, and the abundance and relative expression of Rickettsia in lineage A were significantly higher than those in lineage B.

Potential distribution of selected invasive alien plants under current and future climate change scenarios in South Africa

Invasive alien plants are one of the main causes for the decline of native biodiversity worldwide. Hence, it is crucial to understand the dynamics of invasive plants in the context of a changing climate. The main aim of this study was to evaluate the potential distribution of two major invasive alien plants, Prosopis spp and Acacia mearnsii, under current and future climate change scenarios across South Africa. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used with species occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. The Species occurrence data was obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), while the bioclimatic variables were downloaded from the WorldClim database. The model evaluation metrics for training and test samples were the area under curve (AUC) of 0.76 and 0.77 for Prosopis spp, and 0.91 and 0.89 for A. mearnsii, respectively. It showed that MaxEnt performed well in mapping the distribution of both species. Model results indicated that the near-current potential distribution of Prosopis spp and A. mearnsii in South Africa is significant (93.8% and 9.7% of the total land area, respectively). With the projected climate, Prosopis spp showed an inconsistent result across the General Circulation Models (GCMs), projection times and climate change scenarios. However, with respect to the current potential distribution, the geographical ranges of A. mearnsii will significantly contract (by about 75%) due to climate change. Therefore, it is imperative that policy makers, environmental managers and other stakeholders implement integrated management and control strategies to restrict the distribution of Prosopis spp.

An ecological assessment of the potential pandemic threat of Dengue Virus in Zhejiang province of China

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Dengue fever, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, is a significant public health concern in tropical and subtropical regions. With the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and the reopening of the borders, dengue fever remains a threat to mainland China, Zhejiang province of China is facing a huge risk of importing the dengue virus. This study aims to analyze and predict the current and future potential risk regions for Aedes vectors distribution and dengue prevalence in Zhejiang province of China.

METHOD

We collected occurrence records of DENV and DENV vectors globally from 2010 to 2022, along with historical and future climate data and human population density data. In order to predict the probability of DENV distribution in Zhejiang province of China under future conditions, the ecological niche of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus was first performed with historical climate data based on MaxEnt. Then, predicted results along with a set of bioclimatic variables, elevation and human population density were included in MaxEnt model to analyze the risk region of DENV in Zhejiang province. Finally, the established model was utilized to predict the spatial pattern of DENV risk in the current and future scenarios in Zhejiang province of China.

RESULTS

Our findings indicated that approximately 89.2% (90,805.6 KM²) of Zhejiang province of China is under risk, within about 8.0% (8,144 KM²) classified as high risk area for DENV prevalence. Ae. albopictus were identified as the primary factor influencing the distribution of DENV. Future predictions suggest that sustainable and "green" development pathways may increase the risk of DENV prevalence in Zhejiang province of China. Conversely, Fossil-fueled development pathways may reduce the risk due to the unsuitable environment for vectors.

CONCLUSIONS

The implications of this research highlight the need for effective vector control measures, community engagement, health education, and environmental initiatives to mitigate the potential spread of dengue fever in high-risk regions of Zhejiang province of China.

Identification and Validation of Reference Genes for Expression Analysis Using RT-qPCR in Leptocybe invasa Fisher and La Salle (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae)

Leptocybe invasa (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) is a globally intrusive pest. Despite extensive research into the physiological responses of this pest, our understanding of the molecular mechanisms still needs to be improved. We want to accurately investigate the expression of L. invasa's target genes, so it is imperative to select fitting reference genes. In this study, eight housekeeping genes' stability (RPS30, ACTR, 18S rRNA, ACT, RPL18, GAPDH, 28S rRNA, and TUB) was tested under five different experimental conditions, including male or female adults, somites (head, thorax, and abdomen), temperatures (0 °C, 25 °C, and 40 °C), diets (starvation, clear water, 10% honey water, Eucalyptus sap), and pesticides (acetone was used as a control, imidacloprid, monosultap). Gene stability was calculated using RefFinder, which integrates four algorithms (the ∆Ct method, geNorm, NormFinder, and BestKeeper). The findings implied that ACT and ACTR were the most accurate when comparing sexes. For analyzing different somites, 28S rRNA and RPL18 were ideal; the 28S rRNA and RRS30 were perfect for analyzing at different temperatures. The combination of ACT and GAPDH helped to analyze gene expression in different diets, and GAPDH and 28S rRNA were suitable for various pesticide conditions. Overall, this research offers a complete list of reference genes from L. invasa for precise analysis of target gene expression, which can improve the trustworthiness of RT-qPCR and lay the foundation for further investigations into the gene function of this pest.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Pine Wilt Disease in China under Climate Change

The primary culprits of pine wilt disease (PWD), an epidemic forest disease that significantly endangers the human environment and the world's forest resources, are pinewood nematodes (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus). The MaxEnt model has been used to predict and analyze the potential geographic spread of PWD in China under the effects of climate change and can serve as a foundation for high-efficiency monitoring, supervision, and prompt prevention and management. In this work, the MaxEnt model's criteria settings were optimized using data from 646 PWD infestation sites and seven climate variables from the ENMeval data package. It simulated and forecasted how PWD may be distributed under present and future (the 2050s and 2070s) climatic circumstances, and the key climate factors influencing the disease were examined. The area under AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) is 0.940 under the parameters, demonstrating the accuracy of the simulation. Under the current climate conditions, the moderately and highly suitable habitats of PWD are distributed in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan, and other provinces. The outcomes demonstrated that the fundamental climate variables influencing the PWD distribution were rainfall and temperature, specifically including maximum temperature of warmest month, mean temperature of driest quarter, coefficient of variation of precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of wettest quarter. The evaluation outcomes of the MaxEnt model revealed that the total and highly suitable areas of PWD will expand substantially by both 2050 and 2070, and the potential distribution of PWD will have a tendency to spread towards high altitudes and latitudes.

Prediction of the Current and Future Distributions of the Hessian Fly, Mayetiola destructor (Say), under Climatic Change in China

The Hessian fly, Mayetiola destructor (Say) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae), is a destructive wheat pest worldwide and an important alien species in China. Based on 258 distribution records and nine environmental factors of the Hessian fly, we predicted the potential distribution area in China under three current and future (2050s and 2070s) climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) via the optimized MaxEnt model. Under the current climate conditions, the suitable distribution areas of the Hessian fly in China were 25-48° N, 81-123° E, and the total highly suitable distribution area is approximately 9.63 × 10⁵ km², accounting for 9.99% of the total national area. The highly suitable areas are mainly located in northern Xinjiang and central and eastern China. With the rising global temperatures, except for the high-suitable areas under the RCP8.5 scenario, most potential geographic distribution areas would expand in the future. The minimum temperature in February (tmin-2), precipitation in March (prec-3), maximum temperature in November (tmax-11), and precipitation seasonality (bio-15) are important factors that affect the potential geographic distribution of the Hessian fly. This study provides an important reference and empirical basis for management of the Hessian fly in the future.

Simulation the potential distribution of Dendrolimus houi and its hosts, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, under climate change in China

Due to climate change, it is significant to explore the impact of rising temperatures on the distribution of Dendrolimus houi Lajonquiere (Lepidoptera) and its host plants, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, and to simulate their suitable future distribution areas in order to provide a theoretical basis for the monitoring of, and early warning about, D. houi and the formulation of effective prevention and control policies. Based on the known distribution areas of, and relevant climate data for, D. houi, P. yunnanensis, and C. fortunei, their suitable habitat in China was predicted using the ENMeval data package in order to adjust the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model parameters. The results showed that the regularization multiplier was 0.5 when the feature combination was LQHPT, with a MaxEnt model of lowest complexity and excellent prediction accuracy. The main climate variable affecting the geographical distribution of D. houi, P. yunnanensis, and C. fortunei is temperature, specifically including isothermality, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of warmest month, minimum temperature of warmest month, average temperature of coldest quarter. The potential suitable distribution areas for P. yunnanensis and D. houi were similar under climate change, mainly distributed in southwest China, while C. fortunei was mainly distributed in southeast China. Under different future-climate scenarios, the areas suitable for the three species will increase, except for P. yunnanensis in the 2070s under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5. With climate change, all three species were found to have a tendency to migrate to higher latitudes and higher altitudes. The centroids of the areas suitable for P. yunnanensis and D. houi will migrate to the northwest and the centroids of the areas suitable for C. fortunei will migrate to the northeast.

Bacterial diversity of Leptocybe invasa Fisher & La Salle (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) from different geographical conditions in China

Insects harbor numerous endosymbionts, including bacteria, fungi, yeast, and viruses, which could affect the ecology and behavior of their hosts. However, data regarding the effect of environmental factors on endosymbiotic bacteria of Leptocybe invasa (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) are quite rare. In this study, we assessed the diversity of endosymbiotic bacteria of L. invasa from 10 different geographic populations collected across China through the Illumina MiSeq platform. A total of 547 OTUs were generated, which were annotated into 19 phyla, 33 classes, 75 orders, 137 families, and 274 genera. The dominant bacteria detected in L. invasa were Rickettsia, and Pantoea, Enterobacter, Pseudomonas, Acinetobacter, and Bacillus were also annotated among each population. Nevertheless, the endosymbiotic bacterial abundance and diversity varied among different populations, which was related to the local climate (annual mean high temperature). The bacterial function prediction analysis showed that these endosymbiotic bacteria were concentrated in metabolism, such as carbohydrate, amino acid, and energy metabolism. Overall, the results provide a comprehensive description of the endosymbiotic bacteria in 10 different populations of an important eucalyptus pest L. invasa, and help to understand the endosymbiotic bacterial diversity and adaptation of various conditions.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.

Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk of the Red Import Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in China

Simple Summary

The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. In this study, based on the distribution data and environmental factor data of S. invicta, the optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the potential suitable area of S. invicta growth in the current climate is 81.37 × 10⁴ km² in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The total suitable area of S. invicta growth is expected to increase in the future climate change scenario, and the suitable area is likely to spread to higher latitudes.

Abstract

The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of S. invicta growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of S. invicta, combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 10⁴ km² in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of S. invicta.

Nectar Feeding by a Honey Bee's Hairy Tongue: Morphology, Dynamics, and Energy-Saving Strategies

Simple Summary

This paper reviews the interdisciplinary research on nectar feeding behaviour of honey bees ranging from morphology, dynamics, and energy-saving strategies, which collects a range of knowledge of feeding physiology of honey bees and may inspire the design paradigms of next-generation multifunctional microfluidic transporters.

Abstract

Most flower-visiting insects have evolved highly specialized morphological structures to facilitate nectar feeding. As a typical pollinator, the honey bee has specialized mouth parts comprised of a pair of galeae, a pair of labial palpi, and a glossa, to feed on the nectar by the feeding modes of lapping or sucking. To extensively elucidate the mechanism of a bee’s feeding, we should combine the investigations from glossa morphology, feeding behaviour, and mathematical models. This paper reviews the interdisciplinary research on nectar feeding behaviour of honey bees ranging from morphology, dynamics, and energy-saving strategies, which may not only reveal the mechanism of nectar feeding by honey bees but inspire engineered facilities for microfluidic transport.